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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Jacksonville Jaguars by 7.5
Final margin Jacksonville Jaguars by 2
Difference 5.5 points
Philadelphia Eagles covered the spread.
4,831 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (66.4%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin JAX by 2
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Ronald Torbert Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.1 accepted penalties for 99.3 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Jacksonville Jaguars · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Philadelphia Eagles · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Jacksonville Jaguars chance to win during the game 158 preplay estimates across 188 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 30 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 5 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 13:41 Recorded game event
Philadelphia Eagles · Play 2311 (13:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts to PHI 32 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 31. 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 30 for -7 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker) [44-T.Walker], touched at PHI 33, RECOVERED by JAX-44-T.Walker at PHI 30. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts to PHI 32 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 31. 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 39-D.Pierce (41-J.Hines-Allen) [44-T.Walker].
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.9 percentage points across this play.
Q1 · 15:00 Recorded game event
Jacksonville Jaguars · Play 39 4-J.Elliott kicks 55 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 10. 19-J.Cameron for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on PHI-57-A.Epenesa, Illegal Formation, offsetting, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-50-B.Combs, Offensive Holding, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-57-Bry.Thomas, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Disqualification, offsetting.
A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified. Estimated chance to win moved 0.0 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 188 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 188 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 4-J.Elliott kicks 55 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 10. 19-J.Cameron for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on PHI-57-A.Epenesa, Illegal Formation, offsetting, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-50-B.Combs, Offensive Holding, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-57-Bry.Thomas, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Disqualification, offsetting. Play 39 4-J.Elliott kicks 55 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 10. 19-J.Cameron for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on PHI-57-A.Epenesa, Illegal Formation, offsetting, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-50-B.Combs, Offensive Holding, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-57-Bry.Thomas, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Disqualification, offsetting.
Q114:47 4-J.Elliott kicks 54 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 11. 20-A.Abdullah to JAX 26 for 15 yards (57-A.Epenesa). Play 85 4-J.Elliott kicks 54 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 11. 20-A.Abdullah to JAX 26 for 15 yards (57-A.Epenesa).
Q114:42 (14:42) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 26 for no gain (53-Z.Baun; 35-M.Carter). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 50 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q209:33 Penalty · PHI (9:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at JAX 17 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX -10.71 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 3
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2369
Half seconds remaining 569
Quarter seconds remaining 569
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 9, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 406dc1771fd37094ed8f0e597de5cdb965db2d12e09d354f1db1d7b55b832864ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot Team penalties per game 5.4 / 43.4 yd 7 / 48 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.3 / 50.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.8 / 48.8 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Ronald Torbert; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 158 model estimates across 188 recorded game entries.
30 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (188 entries) 0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence -1.24 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence -0.39 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence -1.43 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence -0.68 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence -10.71 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence -3.41 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence 2.13 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence 0.88 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence -10.42 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence -3.53 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence 1.48 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence 0.67 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence 2.27 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence 0.57 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence -1.33 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence -0.31 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence -4.71 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence -0.86 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence -1.79 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence -0.92 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Observed ruling consequence -4.57 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
JAX Ruling expected points consequence -0.55 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
JAX Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62092/ NA/0.68040 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33086/0.30063/0.28265 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0.1 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13267/0.10793/0.13166 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost 0.91 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84168/ NA/0.83260 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57465/ NA/0.63314 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.50176/0.46047/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost 2.04 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.48665/0.50706/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0.17 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55882/ NA/0.55710 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41347/0.45021/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55178/0.50775/0.52750 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46236/ NA/0.52388 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44724/ NA/0.48971 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46389/0.38198/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37750/0.31788/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.12593/ NA/0.14298 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
JAX Fourth down decision cost 4.49 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72160/ NA/0.67675 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
JAX Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.87 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
PHI Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.87 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
JAX Field goal points above expectation 1.27 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 49th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
PHI Field goal points above expectation 0.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 16th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
JAX Extra point points above expectation -0.92 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 90th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
PHI Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
JAX Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 188 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
PHI Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 188 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
JAX Presnap called penalties above expectation 4.41 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 6 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
JAX Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 3.67 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 5 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
JAX Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.52 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
44 of 44 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 44 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
JAX Pass interference called penalties above expectation 1.43 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
44 of 44 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 44 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.61 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.89 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.52 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q3 · 06:00
Recorded game event
Philadelphia Eagles · Play 2994 (6:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks (4-Jar.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-4-Jar.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on JAX awarded PHI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 7.7 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 09:33 Recorded game event
Philadelphia Eagles · Play 1313 (9:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at JAX 17 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on JAX awarded PHI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 7.6 percentage points across this play.
Show 1 more play Q4 · 01:31 Recorded game event
Philadelphia Eagles · Play 4708 (1:31) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 38 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.2 percentage points across this play.
Play 108
(14:42) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 26 for no gain (53-Z.Baun; 35-M.Carter).
Q114:03 (14:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 87-N.Boerkircher to JAX 38 for 12 yards (27-Q.Mitchell; 35-M.Carter). Play 130 (14:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 87-N.Boerkircher to JAX 38 for 12 yards (27-Q.Mitchell; 35-M.Carter).
Q113:24 (13:24) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers to PHI 49 for 13 yards (24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 38 - No Play. Play 155 (13:24) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers to PHI 49 for 13 yards (24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 38 - No Play.
Q112:46 (12:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 19 for -9 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), recovered by JAX-73-R.Hainsey at JAX 13. Play 191 (12:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 19 for -9 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), recovered by JAX-73-R.Hainsey at JAX 13.
Q111:54 (11:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 13 - No Play. Play 228 (11:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 13 - No Play.
Q111:38 (11:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 11 for 3 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 252 (11:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 11 for 3 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q110:59 (10:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 18 for 7 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 277 (10:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 18 for 7 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q110:32 (10:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 85-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 42 for 18 yards (35-J.Mcleod). Play 307 (10:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 85-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 42 for 18 yards (35-J.Mcleod).
Q110:20 (10:20) 28-W.Shipley up the middle to PHI 45 for 3 yards (23-F.Oluokun). Play 338 (10:20) 28-W.Shipley up the middle to PHI 45 for 3 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
Q109:38 (9:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 49 for 4 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 51-V.Miller). Play 367 (9:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 49 for 4 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 51-V.Miller).
Q108:59 (8:59) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 46 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun). Play 392 (8:59) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 46 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
Q108:23 (8:23) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 28-W.Shipley [52-D.Hamilton]. Play 417 (8:23) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 28-W.Shipley [52-D.Hamilton].
Q108:17 (8:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 28-W.Shipley pushed ob at JAX 39 for 7 yards (6-A.Johnson). Play 440 (8:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 28-W.Shipley pushed ob at JAX 39 for 7 yards (6-A.Johnson).
Q107:46 (7:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right tackle pushed ob at JAX 37 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 497 (7:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right tackle pushed ob at JAX 37 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q106:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right guard to JAX 37 for no gain (52-D.Hamilton). (Virtual Measurement). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. Play 533 (6:56) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right guard to JAX 37 for no gain (52-D.Hamilton). (Virtual Measurement). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q106:52 (6:52) 33-B.Tuten left guard to JAX 40 for 3 yards (58-J.Hunt). Play 608 (6:52) 33-B.Tuten left guard to JAX 40 for 3 yards (58-J.Hunt).
Q106:10 (6:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 12-T.Hunter to JAX 49 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean; 53-Z.Baun). Play 630 (6:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 12-T.Hunter to JAX 49 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean; 53-Z.Baun).
Q105:36 (5:36) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 655 (5:36) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q105:26 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Play 681 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q105:26 39-C.Little kicks 58 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 7. 85-B.Covey to PHI 49 for 42 yards (5-L.Allen). Play 696 39-C.Little kicks 58 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 7. 85-B.Covey to PHI 49 for 42 yards (5-L.Allen).
Q105:17 (5:17) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 49 for no gain (4-Jar.Jones). Play 726 (5:17) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 49 for no gain (4-Jar.Jones).
Q104:33 (4:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert. Play 751 (4:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert.
Q104:30 (4:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 86-Z.Ertz. Play 774 (4:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 86-Z.Ertz.
Q104:26 (4:26) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 9, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. Play 797 (4:26) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 9, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
Q104:19 (4:19) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 18 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 816 (4:19) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 18 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q103:39 (3:39) 33-B.Tuten right guard to JAX 22 for 4 yards (58-J.Hunt). Play 845 (3:39) 33-B.Tuten right guard to JAX 22 for 4 yards (58-J.Hunt).
Q103:02 (3:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 85-B.Strange. Play 867 (3:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 85-B.Strange.
Q102:58 (2:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 27 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean; 35-M.Carter). Play 890 (2:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 27 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean; 35-M.Carter).
Q102:30 (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-77-A.Harrison, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at JAX 27 - No Play. Play 915 (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-77-A.Harrison, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at JAX 27 - No Play.
Q102:08 (2:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 30 for 7 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 939 (2:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 30 for 7 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q101:25 (1:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 36 for 14 yards (19-J.Cameron). Play 964 (1:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 36 for 14 yards (19-J.Cameron).
Q101:13 (1:13) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 47 for 11 yards (23-F.Oluokun). Play 995 (1:13) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 47 for 11 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
Q100:39 (:39) 39-D.Pierce left guard to JAX 47 for 6 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 47-D.Gardeck). Play 1028 (:39) 39-D.Pierce left guard to JAX 47 for 6 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 47-D.Gardeck).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1050 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 39 for 8 yards (25-R.Lane). Play 1070 (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 39 for 8 yards (25-R.Lane).
Q214:27 (14:27) 39-D.Pierce left end to JAX 34 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane). Play 1105 (14:27) 39-D.Pierce left end to JAX 34 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane).
Q213:49 (13:49) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce left guard to JAX 37 for -3 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen). Play 1127 (13:49) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce left guard to JAX 37 for -3 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).
Q213:03 Timeout #1 by PHI at 13:03. Play 1161 Timeout #1 by PHI at 13:03.
Q213:03 (13:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to JAX 27 for 10 yards (4-Jar.Jones). Play 1149 (13:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to JAX 27 for 10 yards (4-Jar.Jones).
Q212:27 (12:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 27 for no gain (41-J.Hines-Allen). Play 1181 (12:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 27 for no gain (41-J.Hines-Allen).
Q211:45 (11:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz [41-J.Hines-Allen]. Play 1206 (11:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz [41-J.Hines-Allen].
Q211:41 (11:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to JAX 9 for 18 yards (26-K.Merriweather). Play 1229 (11:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to JAX 9 for 18 yards (26-K.Merriweather).
Q211:01 (11:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 14, recovered by PHI-39-D.Pierce at JAX 14. Play 1254 (11:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 14, recovered by PHI-39-D.Pierce at JAX 14.
Q210:19 (10:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 39-D.Pierce to JAX 17 for -3 yards (23-F.Oluokun, 51-V.Miller). Play 1288 (10:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 39-D.Pierce to JAX 17 for -3 yards (23-F.Oluokun, 51-V.Miller).
Q209:33 (9:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at JAX 17 - No Play. Play 1313 (9:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at JAX 17 - No Play.
Q209:29 (9:29) 28-W.Shipley left guard to JAX 2 for 1 yard (23-F.Oluokun; 2-J.Lewis). Play 1347 (9:29) 28-W.Shipley left guard to JAX 2 for 1 yard (23-F.Oluokun; 2-J.Lewis).
Q208:49 (8:49) 28-W.Shipley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1369 (8:49) 28-W.Shipley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q208:46 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 1392 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q208:46 4-J.Elliott kicks 60 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 5. 20-A.Abdullah to JAX 35 for 30 yards (42-S.Mondon). Play 1407 4-J.Elliott kicks 60 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 5. 20-A.Abdullah to JAX 35 for 30 yards (42-S.Mondon).
Q208:38 (8:38) 24-C.Rodriguez right guard to JAX 47 for 12 yards (35-M.Carter; 2-T.Woolen). PENALTY on JAX-3-J.Meyers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40. Play 1437 (8:38) 24-C.Rodriguez right guard to JAX 47 for 12 yards (35-M.Carter; 2-T.Woolen). PENALTY on JAX-3-J.Meyers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40.
Q208:25 (8:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to JAX 34 for 4 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 1470 (8:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to JAX 34 for 4 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q207:46 (7:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -10 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), and recovers at JAX 24. Play 1495 (7:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -10 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), and recovers at JAX 24.
Q206:37 (6:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 5-L.Allen. Play 1525 (6:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 5-L.Allen.
Q206:32 (6:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to PHI 38, Center-52-D.Hamilton, out of bounds. Play 1548 (6:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to PHI 38, Center-52-D.Hamilton, out of bounds.
Q206:26 (6:26) 28-W.Shipley right tackle to PHI 38 for no gain (51-V.Miller). Play 1567 (6:26) 28-W.Shipley right tackle to PHI 38 for no gain (51-V.Miller).
Q205:46 (5:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Cooper (1-M.Brown). Play 1596 (5:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Cooper (1-M.Brown).
Q205:41 (5:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1619 (5:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q205:31 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 1645 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q205:31 4-J.Elliott kicks 58 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 7. 19-J.Cameron to JAX 25 for 18 yards (7-K.Ringo). Play 1660 4-J.Elliott kicks 58 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 7. 19-J.Cameron to JAX 25 for 18 yards (7-K.Ringo).
Q205:24 (5:24) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers to JAX 43 for 18 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 1690 (5:24) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers to JAX 43 for 18 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q204:48 (4:48) 33-B.Tuten right end to JAX 40 for -3 yards (98-J.Carter). Play 1715 (4:48) 33-B.Tuten right end to JAX 40 for -3 yards (98-J.Carter).
Q204:10 (4:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 46 for 6 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 1737 (4:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 46 for 6 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q203:34 (3:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at PHI 38 for 16 yards (35-M.Carter). Play 1764 (3:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at PHI 38 for 16 yards (35-M.Carter).
Q202:57 (2:57) 33-B.Tuten right guard to PHI 40 for -2 yards (33-C.DeJean, 98-J.Carter). Play 1794 (2:57) 33-B.Tuten right guard to PHI 40 for -2 yards (33-C.DeJean, 98-J.Carter).
Q202:21 (2:21) 33-B.Tuten left guard to PHI 28 for 12 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 1816 (2:21) 33-B.Tuten left guard to PHI 28 for 12 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q202:00 (2:00) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 33-B.Tuten to PHI 22 for 6 yards (53-Z.Baun) [90-J.Davis]. Play 1838 (2:00) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 33-B.Tuten to PHI 22 for 6 yards (53-Z.Baun) [90-J.Davis].
Q201:17 (1:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (58-J.Hunt). Play 1875 (1:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (58-J.Hunt).
Q201:12 (1:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to PHI 19 for 3 yards (58-J.Hunt). Play 1898 (1:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to PHI 19 for 3 yards (58-J.Hunt).
Q201:06 Timeout #2 by PHI at 01:06. Play 1932 Timeout #2 by PHI at 01:06.
Q201:06 (1:06) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 17 for 2 yards (35-M.Carter). Play 1920 (1:06) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 17 for 2 yards (35-M.Carter).
Q200:30 (:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 19-J.Cameron to PHI 9 for 8 yards (24-A.Mukuba). Play 1949 (:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 19-J.Cameron to PHI 9 for 8 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
Q200:23 Timeout #1 by JAX at 00:23. Play 1986 Timeout #1 by JAX at 00:23.
Q200:23 (:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Cameron. Play 1974 (:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Cameron.
Q200:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to PHI 1 for 8 yards (24-A.Mukuba, 2-T.Woolen). Play 2004 (:20) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to PHI 1 for 8 yards (24-A.Mukuba, 2-T.Woolen).
Q200:15 Timeout #2 by JAX at 00:15. Play 2041 Timeout #2 by JAX at 00:15.
Q200:15 (:15) 72-W.Little and 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 24-C.Rodriguez right tackle to PHI 1 for no gain (53-Z.Baun; 2-T.Woolen). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. Play 2029 (:15) 72-W.Little and 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 24-C.Rodriguez right tackle to PHI 1 for no gain (53-Z.Baun; 2-T.Woolen). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q200:11 Timeout #3 by JAX at 00:11. Play 2074 Timeout #3 by JAX at 00:11.
Q200:11 Timeout #3 by PHI at 00:11. Play 2092 Timeout #3 by PHI at 00:11.
Q200:11 (:11) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle. Play 2062 (:11) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle.
Q200:05 (:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-Bri.Thomas (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 2157 (:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-Bri.Thomas (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q200:01 (:01) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 7 for -6 yards (53-Z.Baun). PHI-58-J.Hunt was injured during the play. Play 2180 (:01) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 7 for -6 yards (53-Z.Baun). PHI-58-J.Hunt was injured during the play.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2208 Q315:00 39-C.Little kicks 57 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 8. 85-B.Covey to PHI 30 for 22 yards (50-B.Combs). Play 2228 39-C.Little kicks 57 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 8. 85-B.Covey to PHI 30 for 22 yards (50-B.Combs).
Q314:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 37 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun). Play 2254 (14:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 37 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
Q314:21 (14:21) 39-D.Pierce left end pushed ob at PHI 37 for no gain (12-T.Hunter). Play 2284 (14:21) 39-D.Pierce left end pushed ob at PHI 37 for no gain (12-T.Hunter).
Q313:41 (13:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts to PHI 32 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 31. 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 30 for -7 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker) [44-T.Walker], touched at PHI 33, RECOVERED by JAX-44-T.Walker at PHI 30. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts to PHI 32 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 31. 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 39-D.Pierce (41-J.Hines-Allen) [44-T.Walker]. Play 2311 (13:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts to PHI 32 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 31. 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 30 for -7 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker) [44-T.Walker], touched at PHI 33, RECOVERED by JAX-44-T.Walker at PHI 30. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts to PHI 32 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 31. 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 39-D.Pierce (41-J.Hines-Allen) [44-T.Walker].
Q313:38 (13:38) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to JAX 15, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 11-P.Washington. Play 2435 (13:38) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to JAX 15, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
Q313:31 (13:31) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 20 for 5 yards (11-J.Campbell; 53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 15 - No Play. Play 2455 (13:31) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 20 for 5 yards (11-J.Campbell; 53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 15 - No Play.
Q313:17 (13:17) 33-B.Tuten right end to JAX 12 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 2500 (13:17) 33-B.Tuten right end to JAX 12 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q312:32 (12:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 24-C.Rodriguez pushed ob at JAX 18 for 6 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 2522 (12:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 24-C.Rodriguez pushed ob at JAX 18 for 6 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q311:56 (11:56) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-3-N.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 18 - No Play. Play 2552 (11:56) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-3-N.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 18 - No Play.
Q311:38 (11:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 19-J.Cameron pushed ob at PHI 45 for 32 yards (23-K.Moore). Play 2576 (11:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 19-J.Cameron pushed ob at PHI 45 for 32 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q311:13 (11:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten to PHI 27 for 18 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 2611 (11:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten to PHI 27 for 18 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q310:28 (10:28) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to PHI 27 for no gain (53-Z.Baun). Play 2636 (10:28) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to PHI 27 for no gain (53-Z.Baun).
Q309:47 (9:47) 33-B.Tuten right end to PHI 28 for -1 yards (33-C.DeJean). JAX-77-A.Harrison was injured during the play. Play 2658 (9:47) 33-B.Tuten right end to PHI 28 for -1 yards (33-C.DeJean). JAX-77-A.Harrison was injured during the play.
Q309:18 (9:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to PHI 14 for 14 yards (31-J.Jones) [53-Z.Baun]. Play 2683 (9:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to PHI 14 for 14 yards (31-J.Jones) [53-Z.Baun].
Q308:32 (8:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to PHI 8 for 6 yards (11-J.Campbell). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 14 - No Play. Play 2725 (8:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to PHI 8 for 6 yards (11-J.Campbell). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 14 - No Play.
Q308:08 (8:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 33-B.Tuten. Play 2763 (8:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 33-B.Tuten.
Q308:05 (8:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 87-N.Boerkircher to PHI 16 for 8 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell). Play 2786 (8:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 87-N.Boerkircher to PHI 16 for 8 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell).
Q307:18 (7:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-P.Washington. Penalty on JAX-85-B.Strange, Illegal Shift, declined. Play 2811 (7:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-P.Washington. Penalty on JAX-85-B.Strange, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q307:15 (7:15) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Play 2845 (7:15) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q307:11 39-C.Little kicks 59 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 6. 39-D.Pierce pushed ob at PHI 38 for 32 yards (5-L.Allen). PENALTY on PHI-80-D.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30. Play 2865 39-C.Little kicks 59 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 6. 39-D.Pierce pushed ob at PHI 38 for 32 yards (5-L.Allen). PENALTY on PHI-80-D.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.
Q307:05 (7:05) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at PHI 39 for 19 yards (12-T.Hunter). Play 2911 (7:05) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at PHI 39 for 19 yards (12-T.Hunter).
Q306:48 (6:48) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 39-D.Pierce to PHI 40 for 1 yard (47-D.Gardeck). Play 2946 (6:48) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 39-D.Pierce to PHI 40 for 1 yard (47-D.Gardeck).
Q306:04 (6:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Mundt (6-A.Johnson). Play 2971 (6:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Mundt (6-A.Johnson).
Q306:00 (6:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks (4-Jar.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-4-Jar.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. Play 2994 (6:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks (4-Jar.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-4-Jar.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Q305:56 (5:56) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce left tackle to JAX 45 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane; 12-T.Hunter). Play 3028 (5:56) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce left tackle to JAX 45 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane; 12-T.Hunter).
Q305:18 (5:18) 39-D.Pierce right end to JAX 49 for -4 yards (92-D.Striggow). Play 3050 (5:18) 39-D.Pierce right end to JAX 49 for -4 yards (92-D.Striggow).
Q304:35 (4:35) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce left end to JAX 43 for 6 yards (12-T.Hunter; 6-A.Johnson). Play 3072 (4:35) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce left end to JAX 43 for 6 yards (12-T.Hunter; 6-A.Johnson).
Q303:51 (3:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 9-M.Lemon (12-T.Hunter). Play 3097 (3:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 9-M.Lemon (12-T.Hunter).
Q303:48 (3:48) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 19-J.Cameron to JAX 46 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 3120 (3:48) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 19-J.Cameron to JAX 46 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q303:06 (3:06) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 46 for no gain (17-A.Ebiketie; 11-J.Campbell). Play 3152 (3:06) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 46 for no gain (17-A.Ebiketie; 11-J.Campbell).
Q302:24 (2:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 7-Bri.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-Q.Mitchell [17-A.Ebiketie] at PHI 26. 27-Q.Mitchell to PHI 26 for no gain (7-Bri.Thomas). PHI-27-Q.Mitchell was injured during the play. Penalty on JAX-85-B.Strange, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. Play 3174 (2:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 7-Bri.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-Q.Mitchell [17-A.Ebiketie] at PHI 26. 27-Q.Mitchell to PHI 26 for no gain (7-Bri.Thomas). PHI-27-Q.Mitchell was injured during the play. Penalty on JAX-85-B.Strange, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q302:15 (2:15) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 39-D.Pierce. Play 3282 (2:15) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 39-D.Pierce.
Q302:10 (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 39-D.Pierce. Play 3317 (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 39-D.Pierce.
Q302:06 (2:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 44 for 18 yards (2-J.Lewis). The penalty was assisted by replay. Play 3340 (2:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 44 for 18 yards (2-J.Lewis). The penalty was assisted by replay.
Q301:47 (1:47) 39-D.Pierce left guard to PHI 46 for 2 yards (92-D.Striggow). Play 3376 (1:47) 39-D.Pierce left guard to PHI 46 for 2 yards (92-D.Striggow).
Q301:07 (1:07) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. Play 3401 (1:07) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks.
Q301:01 (1:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 46 - No Play. Play 3424 (1:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 46 - No Play.
Q301:01 (1:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. Play 3448 (1:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks.
Q300:56 (:56) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Underwood, Touchback. Play 3471 (:56) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Underwood, Touchback.
Q300:47 (:47) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 32 for 12 yards (11-J.Campbell). ** Injury Update: PHI-27-Q.Mitchell has returned to the game. Play 3489 (:47) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 32 for 12 yards (11-J.Campbell). ** Injury Update: PHI-27-Q.Mitchell has returned to the game.
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3511 Q415:00 (15:00) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to JAX 35 for 3 yards (94-B.Young; 90-J.Davis). Play 3534 (15:00) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to JAX 35 for 3 yards (94-B.Young; 90-J.Davis).
Q414:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 11-P.Washington. Play 3561 (14:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 11-P.Washington.
Q414:13 (14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 5-L.Allen [53-Z.Baun]. Play 3584 (14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 5-L.Allen [53-Z.Baun].
Q414:07 (14:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 16 yards (6-A.Johnson). PENALTY on PHI-34-C.Steele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 22. Play 3607 (14:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 16 yards (6-A.Johnson). PENALTY on PHI-34-C.Steele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 22.
Q413:57 (13:57) 39-D.Pierce left guard to PHI 11 for -1 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen). ** Injury Update: PHI-56-T.Steen has returned to the game. Play 3633 (13:57) 39-D.Pierce left guard to PHI 11 for -1 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen). ** Injury Update: PHI-56-T.Steen has returned to the game.
Q413:19 (13:19) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 11 - No Play. Play 3674 (13:19) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 11 - No Play.
Q413:19 (13:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 23 for 17 yards (6-A.Johnson). PENALTY on PHI-80-D.Cooper, Offensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play. Play 3701 (13:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 23 for 17 yards (6-A.Johnson). PENALTY on PHI-80-D.Cooper, Offensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play.
Q412:57 (12:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 80-D.Cooper ran ob at PHI 12 for 9 yards (4-Jar.Jones). Play 3742 (12:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 80-D.Cooper ran ob at PHI 12 for 9 yards (4-Jar.Jones).
Q412:22 (12:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon. Play 3772 (12:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon.
Q412:19 (12:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to JAX 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 37 for no gain. Play 3795 (12:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to JAX 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 37 for no gain.
Q412:12 (12:12) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 44 for 7 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 3826 (12:12) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 44 for 7 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q411:38 (11:38) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to PHI 46 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore; 17-A.Ebiketie). PENALTY on JAX-85-B.Strange, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 44 - No Play. Play 3855 (11:38) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to PHI 46 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore; 17-A.Ebiketie). PENALTY on JAX-85-B.Strange, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 44 - No Play.
Q411:16 (11:16) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-73-R.Hainsey, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 34 - No Play. Play 3888 (11:16) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-73-R.Hainsey, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 34 - No Play.
Q411:16 (11:16) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington to JAX 43 for 14 yards (23-K.Moore). Play 3912 (11:16) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington to JAX 43 for 14 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q410:30 (10:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left guard to PHI 41 for 16 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 3937 (10:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left guard to PHI 41 for 16 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q409:44 (9:44) 33-B.Tuten left guard to PHI 28 for 13 yards (33-C.DeJean; 23-K.Moore). Play 3968 (9:44) 33-B.Tuten left guard to PHI 28 for 13 yards (33-C.DeJean; 23-K.Moore).
Q408:59 (8:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 85-B.Strange to PHI 1 for 27 yards (23-K.Moore). Play 3990 (8:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 85-B.Strange to PHI 1 for 27 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q408:09 Timeout #1 by JAX at 08:09. Play 4029 Timeout #1 by JAX at 08:09.
Q408:09 (8:09) (Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on JAX-72-W.Little, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 1 - No Play. Play 4015 (8:09) (Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on JAX-72-W.Little, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 1 - No Play.
Q408:09 (8:09) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to PHI 4 for 2 yards (3-N.Smith; 98-J.Carter). Play 4050 (8:09) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to PHI 4 for 2 yards (3-N.Smith; 98-J.Carter).
Q407:22 (7:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 4 - No Play. Play 4072 (7:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 4 - No Play.
Q407:22 (7:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 7-Bri.Thomas (2-T.Woolen). Play 4096 (7:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 7-Bri.Thomas (2-T.Woolen).
Q407:17 (7:17) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 9 - No Play. Play 4134 (7:17) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 9 - No Play.
Q407:17 (7:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at PHI 5 for 9 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 4159 (7:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at PHI 5 for 9 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q406:40 (6:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Meyers [17-A.Ebiketie]. Play 4189 (6:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Meyers [17-A.Ebiketie].
Q406:35 (6:35) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to PHI 7 for 1 yard (41-J.Hines-Allen). Play 4212 (6:35) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to PHI 7 for 1 yard (41-J.Hines-Allen).
Q405:49 (5:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left. Play 4234 (5:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left.
Q405:44 (5:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks. Play 4257 (5:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks.
Q405:40 (5:40) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to JAX 47, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 49 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). Play 4280 (5:40) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to JAX 47, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 49 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).
Q405:27 (5:27) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers pushed ob at PHI 32 for 19 yards (23-K.Moore). Play 4311 (5:27) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers pushed ob at PHI 32 for 19 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q404:54 (4:54) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (24-A.Mukuba). Play 4341 (4:54) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
Q404:11 (4:11) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to PHI 27 for 1 yard (90-J.Davis; 33-C.DeJean). Play 4363 (4:11) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to PHI 27 for 1 yard (90-J.Davis; 33-C.DeJean).
Q403:30 (3:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 19-J.Cameron (57-A.Epenesa). Play 4385 (3:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 19-J.Cameron (57-A.Epenesa).
Q403:26 (3:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4408 (3:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:20 39-C.Little extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Play 4434 39-C.Little extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q403:20 39-C.Little kicks 58 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 7. 85-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 28 yards (80-Q.Morris). Play 4449 39-C.Little kicks 58 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 7. 85-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 28 yards (80-Q.Morris).
Q403:13 (3:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (51-V.Miller). Play 4472 (3:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (51-V.Miller).
Q403:09 (3:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 25 for -10 yards (sack split by 6-A.Johnson and 44-T.Walker). Play 4495 (3:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 25 for -10 yards (sack split by 6-A.Johnson and 44-T.Walker).
Q402:40 (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 29 for 4 yards (2-J.Lewis). Play 4515 (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 29 for 4 yards (2-J.Lewis).
Q402:14 (2:14) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 23 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). Play 4540 (2:14) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 23 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).
Q401:59 (1:59) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to JAX 25 for 2 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun). Play 4571 (1:59) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to JAX 25 for 2 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun).
Q401:55 Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:55. Play 4612 Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:55.
Q401:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 19-J.Cameron (98-J.Carter). Play 4600 (1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 19-J.Cameron (98-J.Carter).
Q401:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 31 for 6 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 4630 (1:52) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 31 for 6 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q401:46 Timeout #2 by PHI at 01:46. Play 4664 Timeout #2 by PHI at 01:46.
Q401:46 (1:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to PHI 28, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 10 yards (35-J.Mcleod). Play 4652 (1:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to PHI 28, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 10 yards (35-J.Mcleod).
Q401:35 (1:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert. Play 4685 (1:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert.
Q401:31 (1:31) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 38 - No Play. Play 4708 (1:31) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 38 - No Play.
Q401:31 (1:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at PHI 43 for 10 yards (12-T.Hunter). Play 4732 (1:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at PHI 43 for 10 yards (12-T.Hunter).
Q401:27 (1:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 49 for 6 yards (12-T.Hunter). Play 4762 (1:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 49 for 6 yards (12-T.Hunter).
Q401:05 (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left. Play 4787 (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left.
Q401:00 (1:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 34 for 17 yards (25-R.Lane; 23-F.Oluokun). Play 4810 (1:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 34 for 17 yards (25-R.Lane; 23-F.Oluokun).
Q400:25 Timeout #2 by JAX at 00:25. Play 4847 Timeout #2 by JAX at 00:25.
Q400:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right. Play 4835 (:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.
Q400:21 (:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon pushed ob at JAX 27 for 7 yards (2-J.Lewis) [41-J.Hines-Allen]. Play 4865 (:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon pushed ob at JAX 27 for 7 yards (2-J.Lewis) [41-J.Hines-Allen].
Q400:17 (:17) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to JAX 30 for -3 yards (44-T.Walker). Play 4895 (:17) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to JAX 30 for -3 yards (44-T.Walker).
Q400:12 Timeout #3 by JAX at 00:12. Play 4929 Timeout #3 by JAX at 00:12.
Q400:12 (:12) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 4917 (:12) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q400:08 4-J.Elliott kicks 57 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 8. 20-A.Abdullah to PHI 39 for 53 yards (31-J.Jones). Play 4944 4-J.Elliott kicks 57 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 8. 20-A.Abdullah to PHI 39 for 53 yards (31-J.Jones).
Q400:01 Timeout #3 by PHI at 00:01. Play 4985 Timeout #3 by PHI at 00:01.
Q400:01 (:01) 39-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Play 4967 (:01) 39-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Game seconds remaining 2369
Half seconds remaining 569
Quarter seconds remaining 569
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX -3.41 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 3
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2369
Half seconds remaining 569
Quarter seconds remaining 569
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 17
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2369
Half seconds remaining 569
Quarter seconds remaining 569
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:00 Penalty · PHI (6:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks (4-Jar.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-4-Jar.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX -10.42 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1256
Half seconds remaining 1256
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1256
Half seconds remaining 1256
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX -3.53 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1256
Half seconds remaining 1256
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1256
Half seconds remaining 1256
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q408:09 Penalty · JAX (8:09) (Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on JAX-72-W.Little, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 1 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX -4.71 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 6
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 6
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 489
Half seconds remaining 489
Quarter seconds remaining 489
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 489
Half seconds remaining 489
Quarter seconds remaining 489
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX -0.86 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 6
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 6
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 489
Half seconds remaining 489
Quarter seconds remaining 489
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 489
Half seconds remaining 489
Quarter seconds remaining 489
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q407:17 Penalty · JAX (7:17) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 9 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX -4.57 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 14
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 437
Half seconds remaining 437
Quarter seconds remaining 437
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 9
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 9
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 437
Half seconds remaining 437
Quarter seconds remaining 437
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX -0.55 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 14
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 437
Half seconds remaining 437
Quarter seconds remaining 437
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 9
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 9
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 437
Half seconds remaining 437
Quarter seconds remaining 437
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q401:46 Fourth down · JAX (1:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to PHI 28, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 10 yards (35-J.Mcleod). + Fourth down decision cost JAX 4.49 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.1545373905827188
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.9705555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 2
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 106
Half seconds remaining 106
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 106
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7216027728666053 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72160/ NA/0.67675 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:19 Penalty · PHI (13:19) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX 2.27 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 16
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 799
Half seconds remaining 799
Quarter seconds remaining 799
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 11
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 799
Half seconds remaining 799
Quarter seconds remaining 799
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX 0.57 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 16
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 799
Half seconds remaining 799
Quarter seconds remaining 799
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 11
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 799
Half seconds remaining 799
Quarter seconds remaining 799
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q311:56 Penalty · JAX (11:56) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-3-N.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX 2.13 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 2
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1616
Half seconds remaining 1616
Quarter seconds remaining 716
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 7
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 82
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1616
Half seconds remaining 1616
Quarter seconds remaining 716
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX 0.88 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 2
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1616
Half seconds remaining 1616
Quarter seconds remaining 716
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 7
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 82
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1616
Half seconds remaining 1616
Quarter seconds remaining 716
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q200:01 Fourth down · JAX (:01) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 7 for -6 yards (53-Z.Baun). PHI-58-J.Hunt was injured during the play. + Fourth down decision cost JAX 2.04 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.016143045085925
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.4997222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1801
Half seconds remaining 1
Away timeouts remaining 0
Home timeouts remaining 0
Quarter seconds remaining 1
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.5070587417435415 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.48665/0.50706/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:22 Penalty · JAX (7:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 4 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX -1.79 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 9
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 9
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 442
Half seconds remaining 442
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 4
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 4
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 442
Half seconds remaining 442
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX -0.92 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 9
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 9
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 442
Half seconds remaining 442
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 4
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 4
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 442
Half seconds remaining 442
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q301:01 Penalty · PHI (1:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX 1.48 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 13
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 961
Half seconds remaining 961
Quarter seconds remaining 61
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 8
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 961
Half seconds remaining 961
Quarter seconds remaining 61
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX 0.67 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 13
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 961
Half seconds remaining 961
Quarter seconds remaining 61
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 8
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 961
Half seconds remaining 961
Quarter seconds remaining 61
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q102:30 Penalty · JAX (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-77-A.Harrison, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at JAX 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX -1.43 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 9
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2850
Half seconds remaining 1050
Quarter seconds remaining 150
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 5
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 73
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2850
Half seconds remaining 1050
Quarter seconds remaining 150
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX -0.68 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 9
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2850
Half seconds remaining 1050
Quarter seconds remaining 150
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 5
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 73
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2850
Half seconds remaining 1050
Quarter seconds remaining 150
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q411:16 Penalty · JAX (11:16) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-73-R.Hainsey, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX -1.33 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 18
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 676
Half seconds remaining 676
Quarter seconds remaining 676
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 13
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 676
Half seconds remaining 676
Quarter seconds remaining 676
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX -0.31 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 18
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 676
Half seconds remaining 676
Quarter seconds remaining 676
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 13
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 676
Half seconds remaining 676
Quarter seconds remaining 676
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Show the remaining 38 recorded events Q111:54 Penalty · JAX (11:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX -1.24 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 40
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 92
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3414
Half seconds remaining 1614
Quarter seconds remaining 714
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 35
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3414
Half seconds remaining 1614
Quarter seconds remaining 714
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence JAX -0.39 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 40
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 92
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3414
Half seconds remaining 1614
Quarter seconds remaining 714
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 35
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3414
Half seconds remaining 1614
Quarter seconds remaining 714
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q101:25 Fourth down · JAX (1:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 36 for 14 yards (19-J.Cameron). + Fourth down decision cost JAX 0.91 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 3.032379015217791
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.2263888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q313:38 Fourth down · PHI (13:38) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to JAX 15, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 11-P.Washington. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0.17 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.926623364912703
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.5227777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q104:26 Fourth down · PHI (4:26) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 9, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0.1 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 3.707873664637973
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.1761111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q110:32 Fourth down · JAX (10:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 85-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 42 for 18 yards (35-J.Mcleod). + Fourth down decision cost JAX 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 30
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 5.568497354481281
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.07444444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q106:56 Fourth down · PHI (6:56) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right guard to JAX 37 for no gain (52-D.Hamilton). (Virtual Measurement). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 4.380335163310372
Yardline 100 37
Elapsed share 0.1344444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam PHI Q206:32 Fourth down · JAX (6:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to PHI 38, Center-52-D.Hamilton, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost JAX 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 21
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.569031540899347
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.3911111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q201:06 Fourth down · JAX (1:06) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 17 for 2 yards (35-M.Carter). + Fourth down decision cost JAX 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.0922462481563
Yardline 100 19
Elapsed share 0.4816666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7 Q307:15 Kick · JAX (7:15) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. + Fourth down decision cost JAX 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.6054618970019341
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.6291666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q303:51 Fourth down · PHI (3:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 9-M.Lemon (12-T.Hunter). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.4826660304706766
Yardline 100 43
Elapsed share 0.6858333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q300:56 Fourth down · PHI (:56) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Underwood, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.3973750407371613
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.7344444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q412:19 Fourth down · PHI (12:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to JAX 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 37 for no gain. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.3122391531323155
Yardline 100 88
Elapsed share 0.7947222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q406:40 Fourth down · JAX (6:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Meyers [17-A.Ebiketie]. + Fourth down decision cost JAX 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.2142412558841278
Yardline 100 5
Elapsed share 0.8888888888888888
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q403:26 Fourth down · JAX (3:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost JAX 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam JAX
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.1726984808097975
Yardline 100 27
Elapsed share 0.9427777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam JAX
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q402:14 Fourth down · PHI (2:14) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 23 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 1
Away team PHI
Home team JAX
Away total 17
Home total 24.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.1594207906316629
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.9627777777777777
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q115:00 Fourth down · JAX 4-J.Elliott kicks 55 yards from PHI 35 to JAX 10. 19-J.Cameron for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on PHI-57-A.Epenesa, Illegal Formation, offsetting, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. Penalty on JAX-50-B.Combs, Offensive Holding, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-57-Bry.Thomas, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Disqualification, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:24 Penalty · JAX (13:24) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers to PHI 49 for 13 yards (24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:46 Fumble · JAX (12:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 19 for -9 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), recovered by JAX-73-R.Hainsey at JAX 13. + Fumble recoveries above expectation JAX 0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation PHI -0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q105:26 Kick · JAX 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. + Extra point points above expectation JAX -0.92 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q211:01 Fumble · PHI (11:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 14, recovered by PHI-39-D.Pierce at JAX 14. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q208:46 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q208:38 Penalty · JAX (8:38) 24-C.Rodriguez right guard to JAX 47 for 12 yards (35-M.Carter; 2-T.Woolen). PENALTY on JAX-3-J.Meyers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:46 Fumble · JAX (7:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -10 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), and recovers at JAX 24. + Fumble recoveries above expectation JAX 0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation PHI -0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q205:31 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q313:41 Fumble · PHI (13:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts to PHI 32 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 31. 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 30 for -7 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker) [44-T.Walker], touched at PHI 33, RECOVERED by JAX-44-T.Walker at PHI 30. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts to PHI 32 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 31. 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 39-D.Pierce (41-J.Hines-Allen) [44-T.Walker]. + Fumble recoveries above expectation JAX 0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation PHI -0.87 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Q313:31 Penalty · JAX (13:31) 33-B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 20 for 5 yards (11-J.Campbell; 53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 15 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:32 Penalty · JAX (8:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to PHI 8 for 6 yards (11-J.Campbell). PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 14 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:18 Fourth down · JAX (7:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-P.Washington. Penalty on JAX-85-B.Strange, Illegal Shift, declined. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:11 Penalty · PHI 39-C.Little kicks 59 yards from JAX 35 to PHI 6. 39-D.Pierce pushed ob at PHI 38 for 32 yards (5-L.Allen). PENALTY on PHI-80-D.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:24 Fourth down · JAX (2:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 7-Bri.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-Q.Mitchell [17-A.Ebiketie] at PHI 26. 27-Q.Mitchell to PHI 26 for no gain (7-Bri.Thomas). PHI-27-Q.Mitchell was injured during the play. Penalty on JAX-85-B.Strange, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:07 Penalty · JAX (14:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 16 yards (6-A.Johnson). PENALTY on PHI-34-C.Steele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 22. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:19 Penalty · PHI (13:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 23 for 17 yards (6-A.Johnson). PENALTY on PHI-80-D.Cooper, Offensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:38 Penalty · JAX (11:38) 33-B.Tuten up the middle to PHI 46 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore; 17-A.Ebiketie). PENALTY on JAX-85-B.Strange, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence JAX Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q405:40 Fourth down · PHI (5:40) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to JAX 47, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 49 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). + Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:20 Kick · JAX 39-C.Little extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. + Extra point points above expectation JAX -0.92 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q401:31 Penalty · PHI (1:31) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:12 Kick · PHI (:12) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PHI 0.59 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:01 Kick · JAX (:01) 39-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. + Field goal points above expectation JAX 1.27 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56
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Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 5:25 PM UTC
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Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4513531e3b315f71e616d24afc6821ecec65b9a215b428a8ac2580b31c859dbModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: a7340602183f5c4fe82cf7f8da78324f30c863393993763069d360e68b31fef2
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 1 · Latest ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 2785
Half seconds remaining 985
Quarter seconds remaining 85
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8416786786203594 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84168/ NA/0.83260 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 1718
Half seconds remaining 1718
Quarter seconds remaining 818
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5588165496137936 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55882/ NA/0.55710 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-7
Game seconds remaining 2966
Half seconds remaining 1166
Quarter seconds remaining 266
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1326695485676022 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13267/0.10793/0.13166 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 3332
Half seconds remaining 1532
Quarter seconds remaining 632
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6803968827152249 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62092/ NA/0.68040 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 3116
Half seconds remaining 1316
Quarter seconds remaining 416
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3308594327964326 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33086/0.30063/0.28265 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 2192
Half seconds remaining 392
Quarter seconds remaining 392
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6331399722638962 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57465/ NA/0.63314 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 1866
Quarter seconds remaining 66
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5017591888580177 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.50176/0.46047/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-7
Game seconds remaining 1335
Half seconds remaining 1335
Quarter seconds remaining 435
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4502100700655534 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41347/0.45021/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation JAX 1.27 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
4
Game seconds remaining 1131
Half seconds remaining 1131
Quarter seconds remaining 231
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.551782255156584 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55178/0.50775/0.52750 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
4
Game seconds remaining 956
Half seconds remaining 956
Quarter seconds remaining 56
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5238814289849055 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46236/ NA/0.52388 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
4
Game seconds remaining 739
Half seconds remaining 739
Quarter seconds remaining 739
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4897119993017083 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44724/ NA/0.48971 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-4
Game seconds remaining 400
Half seconds remaining 400
Quarter seconds remaining 400
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.463888348762294 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46389/0.38198/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-4
Game seconds remaining 206
Half seconds remaining 206
Quarter seconds remaining 206
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3774951476980888 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37750/0.31788/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-2
Game seconds remaining 134
Half seconds remaining 134
Quarter seconds remaining 134
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1429756172003749 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.12593/ NA/0.14298 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled