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Debatable 2 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? 3 plays deserve a closer look.
Buffalo Bills gained 409 yards on offense. 10 penalties cost them 85 yards. They won the turnover battle by 2. How this rating was calculated This saved report uses the earlier rating rules. Open the latest report for the current calculation.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Buffalo Bills by 1.5
Final margin Buffalo Bills by 5
Difference 3.5 points
Buffalo Bills covered the spread.
5,710 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (78.5%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
A result in the most unusual 10% can raise a game to Debatable; the most unusual 5% can raise it to Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Houston Texans · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Houston Texans · Opponent penalties Opponent BUF was charged 10 penalties for 85 yards.
Buffalo Bills · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Buffalo Bills · Opponent penalties Opponent HOU was charged 7 penalties for 106 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v4
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Houston Texans chance to win during the game 148 preplay estimates across 180 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 32 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
HOU Observed ruling consequence -1.51 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence -0.62 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
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Notable plays 3 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 00:44 Recorded game event
Houston Texans · Play 4287 (:44) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 9-B.Chubb). PENALTY on BUF-96-D.Walker, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 39.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 5.1 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 05:03 Recorded game event
Houston Texans · Play 1424 (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on BUF awarded HOU a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.7 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:39 Recorded game event
Houston Texans · Play 4320 (:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.9 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 180 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 180 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 57 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 8. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 34 for 26 yards (35-J.Hansen; 36-G.Odum). Play 41 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 57 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 8. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 34 for 26 yards (35-J.Hansen; 36-G.Odum).
Q114:55 (14:55) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 43 for 9 yards (2-C.Bullock). Play 64 (14:55) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 43 for 9 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q114:21 (14:21) 68-T.Grable reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 46 for 3 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 86 (14:21) 68-T.Grable reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 46 for 3 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q113:55 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 92 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q204:13 Penalty · BUF (4:13) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU -16.56 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2045
Half seconds remaining 245
Quarter seconds remaining 245
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 21, 2026, 7:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5049a63cbdab8208e08ab7850fde11803d1d94ec412b3376b7c055b2f376d217nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 21, 2026, 8:58 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 17356223f0da917661cfe50c8db50e4bed2d4a4dcab3172fd209647f112d5729nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 12:47 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 60a22583ee26ac9fab03892f192fcef520f99eeb18eef74c503743c17ece93cenflverse-team-stats
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 148 model estimates across 180 recorded game entries.
32 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (180 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence 8.1 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence 2.33 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence -16.56 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence -4.05 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60900/0.54521/0.53478 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 1.22 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57980/0.56758/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 1.55 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32726/ NA/0.31172 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60262/ NA/0.66254 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71681/0.73874/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22645/ NA/0.18830 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29006/0.23922/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56117/0.60120/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0.46 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35934/0.35475/0.27373 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.31700/ NA/0.35085 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45261/ NA/0.50185 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
HOU Fumble recoveries above expectation -1.58 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
BUF Fumble recoveries above expectation 1.58 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
HOU Field goal points above expectation 1.1 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 42nd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
BUF Field goal points above expectation 0.69 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 22nd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
HOU Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 37th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
BUF Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 11th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
HOU Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
BUF Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
HOU Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
BUF Interception worthy throws 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
HOU QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
BUF QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
HOU Catchable targets 25 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
BUF Catchable targets 21 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
HOU Contested targets 5 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
BUF Contested targets 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
HOU Receiver created receptions 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
BUF Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
BUF Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.05 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
57 of 57 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 57 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.97 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
57 of 57 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 57 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 3.39 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
47 of 47 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 47 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 4. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.39 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
47 of 47 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 47 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
81 of 81 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 81 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.71 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
81 of 81 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 81 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
(13:55) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 43 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Play 118
(13:55) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 43 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q113:18 (13:18) 7-R.Davis right guard to HOU 40 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 140 (13:18) 7-R.Davis right guard to HOU 40 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q112:39 (12:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to HOU 36 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 162 (12:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to HOU 36 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q112:02 (12:02) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 34 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 72-T.Togiai). Play 184 (12:02) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 34 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 72-T.Togiai).
Q111:18 (11:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 206 (11:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q111:15 (11:15) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 37 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard). Play 228 (11:15) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 37 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard).
Q110:36 (10:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 37 - No Play. Play 257 (10:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 37 - No Play.
Q110:17 (10:17) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 34 for 2 yards (8-T.Bernard; 96-D.Walker). Play 291 (10:17) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 34 for 2 yards (8-T.Bernard; 96-D.Walker).
Q109:40 (9:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 29 for -5 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at HOU 32. Play 313 (9:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 29 for -5 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at HOU 32.
Q109:32 (9:32) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (5-J.Pitre; 6-R.Blankenship). Play 343 (9:32) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (5-J.Pitre; 6-R.Blankenship).
Q108:56 (8:56) 17-J.Allen sacked at HOU 34 for -6 yards (90-J.Clowney). Play 365 (8:56) 17-J.Allen sacked at HOU 34 for -6 yards (90-J.Clowney).
Q108:14 (8:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to HOU 33 for 1 yard. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 23 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 385 (8:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to HOU 33 for 1 yard. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 23 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q107:42 (7:42) (Run formation) PENALTY on BUF, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play. Play 415 (7:42) (Run formation) PENALTY on BUF, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play.
Q107:32 (7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 449 (7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q107:28 16-T.Bass kicks 64 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 1. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 23 yards (83-K.Latu; 55-M.Hoecht). Play 475 16-T.Bass kicks 64 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 1. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 23 yards (83-K.Latu; 55-M.Hoecht).
Q107:21 (7:21) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (15-G.Rousseau). Play 505 (7:21) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (15-G.Rousseau).
Q106:43 (6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 37 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard; 24-C.Bishop). Play 527 (6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 37 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard; 24-C.Bishop).
Q106:04 (6:04) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 44 for 7 yards (8-T.Bernard; 42-D.Williams). Play 552 (6:04) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 44 for 7 yards (8-T.Bernard; 42-D.Williams).
Q105:24 (5:24) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 83-M.Klein to BUF 40 for 16 yards (1-M.Hairston). Play 574 (5:24) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 83-M.Klein to BUF 40 for 16 yards (1-M.Hairston).
Q104:43 (4:43) 4-W.Marks left guard to BUF 36 for 4 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 42-D.Williams). Play 599 (4:43) 4-W.Marks left guard to BUF 36 for 4 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 42-D.Williams).
Q104:03 (4:03) 12-N.Collins right end pushed ob at BUF 29 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 621 (4:03) 12-N.Collins right end pushed ob at BUF 29 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q103:20 (3:20) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left end to BUF 27 for 2 yards (97-G.Gaines; 8-T.Bernard). Play 648 (3:20) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left end to BUF 27 for 2 yards (97-G.Gaines; 8-T.Bernard).
Q102:37 (2:37) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 14-K.Boutte. Play 672 (2:37) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 14-K.Boutte.
Q102:30 (2:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at BUF 2 for 25 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 695 (2:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at BUF 2 for 25 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q101:53 (1:53) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to BUF 1 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard, 9-B.Chubb). Play 725 (1:53) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to BUF 1 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard, 9-B.Chubb).
Q101:15 (1:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 1 for no gain (96-D.Walker; 42-D.Williams). Play 747 (1:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 1 for no gain (96-D.Walker; 42-D.Williams).
Q100:37 (:37) 32-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 771 (:37) 32-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q100:32 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 794 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q100:32 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 38 for 37 yards (22-J.Smith). Play 809 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 38 for 37 yards (22-J.Smith).
Q100:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 43 for 19 yards (2-C.Bullock). Play 839 (:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 43 for 19 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 864 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right [39-H.To'oTo'o]. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play. Play 884 (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right [39-H.To'oTo'o]. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play.
Q214:52 (14:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Kincaid. Penalty on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Play 918 (14:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Kincaid. Penalty on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q214:48 (14:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 32 for 16 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 5-J.Pitre). Play 952 (14:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 32 for 16 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 5-J.Pitre).
Q214:07 (14:07) 4-J.Cook right end pushed ob at HOU 25 for 7 yards (24-D.Stingley). Play 977 (14:07) 4-J.Cook right end pushed ob at HOU 25 for 7 yards (24-D.Stingley).
Q213:32 (13:32) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 21 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 1009 (13:32) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 21 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q212:57 (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1031 (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q212:46 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 1054 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q212:46 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 25 for 22 yards (44-J.Andreessen). Play 1069 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 25 for 22 yards (44-J.Andreessen).
Q212:39 (12:39) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 31 for 6 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 1099 (12:39) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 31 for 6 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q211:56 (11:56) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 35 for 4 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1124 (11:56) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 35 for 4 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q211:15 (11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to HOU 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 47-C.Benford). PENALTY on BUF-23-D.Alford, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play. Play 1146 (11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to HOU 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 47-C.Benford). PENALTY on BUF-23-D.Alford, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play.
Q210:51 (10:51) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 1182 (10:51) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz [15-G.Rousseau].
Q210:47 (10:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to HOU 38 for -2 yards (96-D.Walker). Play 1205 (10:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to HOU 38 for -2 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q210:06 (10:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to BUF 47 for 15 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1230 (10:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to BUF 47 for 15 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q209:18 (9:18) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to BUF 41 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht). Play 1252 (9:18) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to BUF 41 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht).
Q208:41 (8:41) 32-D.Montgomery right end to BUF 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 1-M.Hairston). Play 1276 (8:41) 32-D.Montgomery right end to BUF 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 1-M.Hairston).
Q208:01 (8:01) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 36 for 2 yards (97-G.Gaines). Play 1298 (8:01) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 36 for 2 yards (97-G.Gaines).
Q207:21 Timeout #1 by HOU at 07:21. Play 1334 Timeout #1 by HOU at 07:21.
Q207:21 (7:21) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 1320 (7:21) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [15-G.Rousseau].
Q207:16 (7:16) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 24 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop; 23-D.Alford). Play 1352 (7:16) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 24 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop; 23-D.Alford).
Q206:33 (6:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 8-C.Stover to BUF 26 for -2 yards (8-T.Bernard) [9-B.Chubb]. Play 1374 (6:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 8-C.Stover to BUF 26 for -2 yards (8-T.Bernard) [9-B.Chubb].
Q205:49 (5:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 23 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 96-D.Walker). Play 1399 (5:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 23 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 96-D.Walker).
Q205:03 (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play. Play 1424 (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play.
Q204:53 (4:53) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1458 (4:53) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q204:48 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 1481 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q204:48 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BUF 35. Play 1496 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BUF 35.
Q204:48 (4:48) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 2-D.Moore to HOU 47 for 18 yards (2-C.Bullock; 3-K.Lassiter). Play 1520 (4:48) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 2-D.Moore to HOU 47 for 18 yards (2-C.Bullock; 3-K.Lassiter).
Q204:13 (4:13) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. Play 1545 (4:13) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play.
Q204:05 (4:05) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (5-J.Pitre). Play 1579 (4:05) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (5-J.Pitre).
Q204:02 (4:02) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1602 (4:02) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q203:59 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 1625 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q203:59 16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 0. 11-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 26 yards (99-T.Parker; 56-J.Solomon). Play 1640 16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 0. 11-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 26 yards (99-T.Parker; 56-J.Solomon).
Q203:51 (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 17-J.Wayne pushed ob at HOU 33 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play. Play 1670 (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 17-J.Wayne pushed ob at HOU 33 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play.
Q203:33 (3:33) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to HOU 36 for 5 yards (99-T.Parker; 24-C.Bishop). BUF-24-C.Bishop was injured during the play. Play 1728 (3:33) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to HOU 36 for 5 yards (99-T.Parker; 24-C.Bishop). BUF-24-C.Bishop was injured during the play.
Q203:05 (3:05) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 39 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams). Play 1753 (3:05) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 39 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q202:26 (2:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 19-X.Hutchinson (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 1785 (2:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 19-X.Hutchinson (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q202:22 (2:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith. Play 1808 (2:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.
Q202:10 (2:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 42 for 38 yards (24-D.Stingley). Play 1828 (2:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 42 for 38 yards (24-D.Stingley).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to HOU 43 for 15 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 1853 (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to HOU 43 for 15 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q201:39 (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1885 (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q201:29 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 1911 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q201:29 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 21 yards (83-K.Latu). PENALTY on HOU-36-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24. Play 1926 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 21 yards (83-K.Latu). PENALTY on HOU-36-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.
Q201:24 (1:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 23 for 9 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 1967 (1:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 23 for 9 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q201:03 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on BUF-47-C.Benford, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play. Play 1992 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on BUF-47-C.Benford, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play.
Q200:58 (:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 47 for 9 yards (47-C.Benford; 52-K.Elarms-Orr). Play 2026 (:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 47 for 9 yards (47-C.Benford; 52-K.Elarms-Orr).
Q200:40 (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 12 for 35 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 2051 (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 12 for 35 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q200:31 (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2081 (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q200:26 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 2107 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q200:26 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 46 for 41 yards (8-C.Stover; 15-K.Fairbairn). PENALTY on BUF-44-J.Andreessen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27. Play 2122 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 46 for 41 yards (8-C.Stover; 15-K.Fairbairn). PENALTY on BUF-44-J.Andreessen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27.
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore (2-C.Bullock). Play 2156 (:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore (2-C.Bullock).
Q200:10 (:10) 20-F.Gore up the middle to BUF 20 for 3 yards (51-W.Anderson; 98-S.Rankins). Play 2184 (:10) 20-F.Gore up the middle to BUF 20 for 3 yards (51-W.Anderson; 98-S.Rankins).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2211 Q315:00 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 34 for 31 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 55-M.Hoecht). Play 2231 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 34 for 31 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 55-M.Hoecht).
Q314:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to HOU 39 for 5 yards (94-L.Jackson). ** Injury Update: BUF-24-C.Bishop has returned to the game. Play 2254 (14:55) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to HOU 39 for 5 yards (94-L.Jackson). ** Injury Update: BUF-24-C.Bishop has returned to the game.
Q314:19 (14:19) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau). Play 2276 (14:19) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau).
Q313:39 (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to HOU 45 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht). PENALTY on HOU-32-D.Montgomery, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39 - No Play. Play 2300 (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to HOU 45 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht). PENALTY on HOU-32-D.Montgomery, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39 - No Play.
Q313:24 (13:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [9-B.Chubb]. HOU-63-E.Brown was injured during the play. Play 2339 (13:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [9-B.Chubb]. HOU-63-E.Brown was injured during the play.
Q313:19 (13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28. Play 2365 (13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28.
Q313:10 (13:10) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 15 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 2409 (13:10) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 15 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q312:33 (12:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 18 for 3 yards (98-S.Rankins; 6-R.Blankenship). Play 2431 (12:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 18 for 3 yards (98-S.Rankins; 6-R.Blankenship).
Q312:01 (12:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at BUF 35 for 17 yards. Play 2456 (12:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at BUF 35 for 17 yards.
Q311:35 (11:35) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 36 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair; 98-S.Rankins). Play 2486 (11:35) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 36 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair; 98-S.Rankins).
Q310:54 (10:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 46 for 10 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 39-H.To'oTo'o). PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 36 - No Play. Play 2508 (10:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 46 for 10 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 39-H.To'oTo'o). PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 36 - No Play.
Q310:31 (10:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 2544 (10:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q310:18 (10:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore to BUF 33 for 7 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o). Play 2583 (10:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore to BUF 33 for 7 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
Q309:41 (9:41) 39-T.Doman punts 63 yards to HOU 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin. Play 2608 (9:41) 39-T.Doman punts 63 yards to HOU 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.
Q309:26 (9:26) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 2 for -2 yards (91-E.Oliver). ** Injury Update: HOU-63-E.Brown has returned to the game. Play 2628 (9:26) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 2 for -2 yards (91-E.Oliver). ** Injury Update: HOU-63-E.Brown has returned to the game.
Q308:46 (8:46) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz (15-G.Rousseau). Play 2659 (8:46) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz (15-G.Rousseau).
Q308:42 (8:42) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 9 for 7 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 91-E.Oliver). BUF-8-T.Bernard was injured during the play. Play 2682 (8:42) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 9 for 7 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 91-E.Oliver). BUF-8-T.Bernard was injured during the play.
Q308:10 (8:10) 38-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 47, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch to HOU 43 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). HOU-33-J.Hummel was injured during the play. Play 2704 (8:10) 38-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 47, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch to HOU 43 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). HOU-33-J.Hummel was injured during the play.
Q307:58 (7:58) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 42 for 1 yard (51-W.Anderson). Play 2740 (7:58) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 42 for 1 yard (51-W.Anderson).
Q307:22 (7:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on HOU-97-M.Edwards, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined. Play 2772 (7:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on HOU-97-M.Edwards, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q307:15 (7:15) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 16 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock). Play 2806 (7:15) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 16 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q306:34 (6:34) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 13 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai). Play 2832 (6:34) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 13 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai).
Q305:56 (5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at HOU 18 for -5 yards (sack split by 97-M.Edwards and 51-W.Anderson). Play 2854 (5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at HOU 18 for -5 yards (sack split by 97-M.Edwards and 51-W.Anderson).
Q305:11 (5:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 16 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 2874 (5:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 16 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q304:27 (4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 2899 (4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q304:24 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 28 for 25 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 44-J.Andreessen). Play 2919 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 28 for 25 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 44-J.Andreessen).
Q304:19 (4:19) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left. ** Injury Update: BUF-8-T.Bernard has returned to the game. Play 2949 (4:19) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left. ** Injury Update: BUF-8-T.Bernard has returned to the game.
Q304:13 (4:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 37 for 9 yards (42-D.Williams). Play 2972 (4:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 37 for 9 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q303:33 (3:33) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 37 for no gain (91-E.Oliver). Play 3000 (3:33) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 37 for no gain (91-E.Oliver).
Q302:50 (2:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford; 56-J.Solomon). Play 3022 (2:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford; 56-J.Solomon).
Q302:08 (2:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 48 for 9 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 3046 (2:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 48 for 9 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q301:35 (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to BUF 31 for 21 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 3071 (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to BUF 31 for 21 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q301:12 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. Play 3096 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins.
Q301:07 (1:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 22 for 9 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 3119 (1:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 22 for 9 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q300:47 (:47) (No Huddle) 7-C.Stroud left guard to BUF 22 for no gain (42-D.Williams). Play 3144 (:47) (No Huddle) 7-C.Stroud left guard to BUF 22 for no gain (42-D.Williams).
Q300:04 (:04) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to BUF 19 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 90-D.Carter). Play 3166 (:04) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to BUF 19 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 90-D.Carter).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3190 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 17-J.Wayne to BUF 7 for 12 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 3210 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 17-J.Wayne to BUF 7 for 12 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q414:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to BUF 7 for no gain (96-D.Walker). Play 3235 (14:17) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to BUF 7 for no gain (96-D.Walker).
Q413:39 (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3259 (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q413:34 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 3285 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q413:34 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis pushed ob at BUF 34 for 29 yards (11-T.Smith). Play 3300 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis pushed ob at BUF 34 for 29 yards (11-T.Smith).
Q413:29 (13:29) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Cook [90-J.Clowney]. Play 3340 (13:29) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Cook [90-J.Clowney].
Q413:23 (13:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 40 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 3363 (13:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 40 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q412:44 (12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 20 for 40 yards (2-C.Bullock). Play 3388 (12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 20 for 40 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q411:58 (11:58) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 17 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 3413 (11:58) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 17 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q411:15 (11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at HOU 14 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 3435 (11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at HOU 14 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q410:41 (10:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (98-S.Rankins). Play 3465 (10:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (98-S.Rankins).
Q410:36 (10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 3488 (10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q410:31 16-T.Bass kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 7. 11-T.Smith to HOU 35 for 28 yards (37-J.Hancock; 44-J.Andreessen). Play 3508 16-T.Bass kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 7. 11-T.Smith to HOU 35 for 28 yards (37-J.Hancock; 44-J.Andreessen).
Q410:26 (10:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. Play 3538 (10:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins.
Q410:22 (10:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play. Play 3561 (10:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play.
Q410:14 (10:14) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left guard to HOU 35 for 10 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 3595 (10:14) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left guard to HOU 35 for 10 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q409:28 (9:28) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at BUF 45 for 20 yards (1-M.Hairston). Play 3617 (9:28) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at BUF 45 for 20 yards (1-M.Hairston).
Q408:49 (8:49) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 47 for -2 yards (90-D.Carter). Play 3647 (8:49) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 47 for -2 yards (90-D.Carter).
Q408:12 (8:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 41 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 3669 (8:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 41 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q407:30 (7:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 3694 (7:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q406:48 (6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 3724 (6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q406:44 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 20 for 19 yards (54-S.Harsh; 94-D.Robinson). Play 3744 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 20 for 19 yards (54-S.Harsh; 94-D.Robinson).
Q406:38 (6:38) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 18, and recovers at BUF 18. Play 3768 (6:38) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 18, and recovers at BUF 18.
Q405:56 (5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). Play 3797 (5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter).
Q405:50 (5:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (55-D.Hunter). Play 3826 (5:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (55-D.Hunter).
Q405:45 (5:45) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. Play 3849 (5:45) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.
Q405:39 (5:39) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to HOU 39 for 3 yards (9-B.Chubb; 42-D.Williams). Play 3869 (5:39) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to HOU 39 for 3 yards (9-B.Chubb; 42-D.Williams).
Q404:57 (4:57) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right end to HOU 37 for -2 yards (42-D.Williams, 91-E.Oliver). Play 3891 (4:57) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right end to HOU 37 for -2 yards (42-D.Williams, 91-E.Oliver).
Q404:10 (4:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 37 for no gain (9-B.Chubb; 24-C.Bishop) [91-E.Oliver]. Play 3915 (4:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 37 for no gain (9-B.Chubb; 24-C.Bishop) [91-E.Oliver].
Q403:24 (3:24) 38-K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-22-J.Smith. Play 3940 (3:24) 38-K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-22-J.Smith.
Q403:13 (3:13) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley). FUMBLES (24-D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at BUF 19. Play 3960 (3:13) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley). FUMBLES (24-D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at BUF 19.
Q402:34 (2:34) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 39-H.To'oTo'o). HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play. Play 3998 (2:34) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 39-H.To'oTo'o). HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play.
Q402:06 (2:06) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook ran ob at BUF 32 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley). Play 4026 (2:06) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook ran ob at BUF 32 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley).
Q402:00 (2:00) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at HOU 33 for 35 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 4063 (2:00) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at HOU 33 for 35 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q401:53 (1:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 34 for -1 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 4100 (1:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 34 for -1 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q401:48 Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:48. Play 4134 Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:48.
Q401:48 (1:48) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer. Play 4122 (1:48) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer.
Q401:41 (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4152 (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:36 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 0-K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 4178 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 0-K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q401:36 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 26 yards (56-J.Solomon). Play 4191 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 26 yards (56-J.Solomon).
Q401:31 (1:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 47 for 18 yards (23-D.Alford; 91-E.Oliver). Play 4214 (1:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 47 for 18 yards (23-D.Alford; 91-E.Oliver).
Q401:11 (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 24-C.Bishop). Play 4239 (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 24-C.Bishop).
Q400:50 (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson. Play 4264 (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson.
Q400:44 (:44) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 9-B.Chubb). PENALTY on BUF-96-D.Walker, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 39. Play 4287 (:44) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 9-B.Chubb). PENALTY on BUF-96-D.Walker, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 39.
Q400:39 (:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play. Play 4320 (:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play.
Q400:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 4344 (:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson [15-G.Rousseau].
Q400:35 (:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 4367 (:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q400:30 Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:30. Play 4404 Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:30.
Q400:30 Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:30. Play 4411 Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:30.
Q400:30 (:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 4392 (:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q400:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker). Play 4436 (:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q400:20 Timeout #3 by HOU at 00:20. Play 4468 Timeout #3 by HOU at 00:20.
Q400:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins. Play 4456 (:20) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins.
Q400:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24. Play 4486 (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.
Q400:09 (:09) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 23 for -1 yards. Play 4516 (:09) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 23 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 2045
Half seconds remaining 245
Quarter seconds remaining 245
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU -4.05 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2045
Half seconds remaining 245
Quarter seconds remaining 245
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2045
Half seconds remaining 245
Quarter seconds remaining 245
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:03 Penalty · HOU (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU 8.1 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2093
Half seconds remaining 293
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 9
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 23
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2093
Half seconds remaining 293
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU 2.33 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2093
Half seconds remaining 293
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 9
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 23
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2093
Half seconds remaining 293
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q202:22 Fourth down · HOU (2:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 1.55 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.2376973355172428
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.4605555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1942
Half seconds remaining 142
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 142
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.327263463074447 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32726/ NA/0.31172 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:36 Penalty · HOU (10:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU -1.51 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 14
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3336
Half seconds remaining 1536
Quarter seconds remaining 636
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 9
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3336
Half seconds remaining 1536
Quarter seconds remaining 636
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU -0.62 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 14
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3336
Half seconds remaining 1536
Quarter seconds remaining 636
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 9
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3336
Half seconds remaining 1536
Quarter seconds remaining 636
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q111:18 Fourth down · BUF (11:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter). + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -1.172101675746122
Yardline 100 34
Elapsed share 0.06166666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3378
Half seconds remaining 1578
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 678
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6090040455134615 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60900/0.54521/0.53478 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:41 Fourth down · BUF (9:41) 39-T.Doman punts 63 yards to HOU 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.1424193596942047
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.5886111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1481
Half seconds remaining 1481
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 581
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6625419344498392 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60262/ NA/0.66254 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:27 Kick · BUF (4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.1004728009701104
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.6758333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1167
Half seconds remaining 1167
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 267
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7387365817751932 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71681/0.73874/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 0.69 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q302:50 Fourth down · HOU (2:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford; 56-J.Solomon). + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.09020720265929567
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.7027777777777777
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1070
Half seconds remaining 1070
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 170
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.226448703902993 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22645/ NA/0.18830 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q300:04 Fourth down · HOU (:04) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to BUF 19 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 90-D.Carter). + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.07501325502104854
Yardline 100 22
Elapsed share 0.7488888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 904
Half seconds remaining 904
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 4
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2900599048437093 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29006/0.23922/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:36 Kick · BUF (10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.0556948149514318
Yardline 100 14
Elapsed share 0.8233333333333334
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 636
Half seconds remaining 636
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 636
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.6011989709718895 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56117/0.60120/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 0.69 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q405:45 Fourth down · BUF (5:45) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.04030815155858576
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.9041666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 345
Half seconds remaining 345
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 345
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3508484031987968 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.31700/ NA/0.35085 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:24 Fourth down · HOU (3:24) 38-K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-22-J.Smith. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.03446302650166234
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.9433333333333334
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 204
Half seconds remaining 204
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 204
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5018490853750667 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45261/ NA/0.50185 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 80 recorded events Q109:40 Fumble · HOU (9:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 29 for -5 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at HOU 32. + Fumble recoveries above expectation HOU -1.58 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BUF 1.58 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q107:42 Penalty · BUF (7:42) (Run formation) PENALTY on BUF, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:32 Kick · BUF (7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 1.22 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.911820006509442
Yardline 100 28
Elapsed share 0.1244444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q100:32 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Penalty · BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right [39-H.To'oTo'o]. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:52 Fourth down · BUF (14:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Kincaid. Penalty on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:46 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q211:15 Penalty · HOU (11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to HOU 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 47-C.Benford). PENALTY on BUF-23-D.Alford, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:48 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q203:59 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q203:51 Penalty · HOU (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 17-J.Wayne pushed ob at HOU 33 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:29 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q201:29 Penalty · HOU 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 21 yards (83-K.Latu). PENALTY on HOU-36-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:03 Penalty · HOU (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on BUF-47-C.Benford, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:26 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q200:26 Penalty · BUF 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 46 for 41 yards (8-C.Stover; 15-K.Fairbairn). PENALTY on BUF-44-J.Andreessen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:39 Penalty · HOU (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to HOU 45 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht). PENALTY on HOU-32-D.Montgomery, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:19 Penalty · HOU (13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:54 Penalty · BUF (10:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 46 for 10 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 39-H.To'oTo'o). PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:31 Fourth down · BUF (10:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:10 Fourth down · HOU (8:10) 38-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 47, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch to HOU 43 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). HOU-33-J.Hummel was injured during the play. + Fourth down decision cost HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:22 Penalty · BUF (7:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on HOU-97-M.Edwards, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:34 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q410:22 Penalty · HOU (10:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:48 Kick · HOU (6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0.46 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team HOU
Away total 23
Home total 21.5
Total line 44.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.04323082231781813
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.8866666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q406:38 Fumble · BUF (6:38) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 18, and recovers at BUF 18. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q403:13 Fumble · BUF (3:13) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley). FUMBLES (24-D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at BUF 19. + Fumble recoveries above expectation HOU -1.58 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BUF 1.58 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q400:44 Penalty · HOU (:44) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 9-B.Chubb). PENALTY on BUF-96-D.Walker, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 39. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:39 Penalty · HOU (:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:16 Fumble · HOU (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24. + Fumble recoveries above expectation HOU -1.58 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BUF 1.58 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q401:48 Execution · BUF (1:48) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer. + Interception worthy throws BUF 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q106:43 Execution · HOU (6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 37 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard; 24-C.Bishop). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q105:24 Execution · HOU (5:24) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 83-M.Klein to BUF 40 for 16 yards (1-M.Hairston). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q102:30 Execution · HOU (2:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at BUF 2 for 25 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q212:39 Execution · HOU (12:39) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 31 for 6 yards (24-C.Bishop). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q210:47 Execution · HOU (10:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to HOU 38 for -2 yards (96-D.Walker). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q206:33 Execution · HOU (6:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 8-C.Stover to BUF 26 for -2 yards (8-T.Bernard) [9-B.Chubb]. + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q205:49 Execution · HOU (5:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 23 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 96-D.Walker). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q203:05 Execution · HOU (3:05) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 39 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q201:24 Execution · HOU (1:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 23 for 9 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q200:58 Execution · HOU (:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 47 for 9 yards (47-C.Benford; 52-K.Elarms-Orr). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q200:40 Execution · HOU (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 12 for 35 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q200:31 Execution · HOU (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q304:13 Execution · HOU (4:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 37 for 9 yards (42-D.Williams). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q302:08 Execution · HOU (2:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 48 for 9 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q301:35 Execution · HOU (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to BUF 31 for 21 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q415:00 Execution · HOU (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 17-J.Wayne to BUF 7 for 12 yards (47-C.Benford). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Contested targets HOU 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q413:39 Execution · HOU (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q409:28 Execution · HOU (9:28) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at BUF 45 for 20 yards (1-M.Hairston). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q408:12 Execution · HOU (8:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 41 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Contested targets HOU 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q407:30 Execution · HOU (7:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Contested targets HOU 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q404:10 Execution · HOU (4:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 37 for no gain (9-B.Chubb; 24-C.Bishop) [91-E.Oliver]. + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q401:31 Execution · HOU (1:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 47 for 18 yards (23-D.Alford; 91-E.Oliver). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q401:11 Execution · HOU (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 24-C.Bishop). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q400:35 Execution · HOU (:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q400:30 Execution · HOU (:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). + Catchable targets HOU 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q114:21 Execution · BUF (14:21) 68-T.Grable reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 46 for 3 yards (6-R.Blankenship). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q108:14 Execution · BUF (8:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to HOU 33 for 1 yard. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 23 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q100:25 Execution · BUF (:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 43 for 19 yards (2-C.Bullock). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q214:48 Execution · BUF (14:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 32 for 16 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 5-J.Pitre). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q204:48 Execution · BUF (4:48) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 2-D.Moore to HOU 47 for 18 yards (2-C.Bullock; 3-K.Lassiter). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q202:10 Execution · BUF (2:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 42 for 38 yards (24-D.Stingley). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions BUF 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Execution · BUF (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to HOU 43 for 15 yards (6-R.Blankenship). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q201:39 Execution · BUF (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q312:33 Execution · BUF (12:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 18 for 3 yards (98-S.Rankins; 6-R.Blankenship). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q312:01 Execution · BUF (12:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at BUF 35 for 17 yards. + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q310:18 Execution · BUF (10:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore to BUF 33 for 7 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q307:15 Execution · BUF (7:15) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 16 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q305:11 Execution · BUF (5:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 16 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q413:29 Execution · BUF (13:29) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Cook [90-J.Clowney]. + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q413:23 Execution · BUF (13:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 40 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q412:44 Execution · BUF (12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 20 for 40 yards (2-C.Bullock). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q411:15 Execution · BUF (11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at HOU 14 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q402:34 Execution · BUF (2:34) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 39-H.To'oTo'o). HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play. + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q402:06 Execution · BUF (2:06) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook ran ob at BUF 32 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q402:00 Execution · BUF (2:00) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at HOU 33 for 35 yards (5-J.Pitre). + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q401:41 Execution · BUF (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets BUF 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q301:12 Execution · HOU (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. + Contested targets HOU 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q301:07 Execution · HOU (1:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 22 for 9 yards (24-C.Bishop). + Contested targets HOU 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 38/38 eligible events modeled
Q200:18 Execution · BUF (:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore (2-C.Bullock). + Contested targets BUF 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 1:14 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 ea490f8d700671501fa46110f133477cb3451052c54a63de46d1aee816ddf9e7
Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v4 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
Analysis input hash: cfbefebd35e64bf4cf03e138811039c572b731acdb7d441bc4794cd5733e299b
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 5 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 23, 2026, 9:02 PM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game profile audit and review priorities updated.
Sep 23, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game profile audit and review priorities updated.
Sep 22, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game profile audit and review priorities updated.
Sep 22, 2026, 4:18 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Updated source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 22, 2026, 2:12 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 3152
Half seconds remaining 1352
Quarter seconds remaining 452
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5798036237418084 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57980/0.56758/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 0.69 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-2
Game seconds remaining 408
Half seconds remaining 408
Quarter seconds remaining 408
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3593430464190097 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35934/0.35475/0.27373 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation HOU 1.1 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled