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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: PHI by 2.4; actual result: PHI by 2.
The 0.4-point difference was matched or exceeded in 785 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 PHI minus WAS penalty-count difference: -1 versus 0.3 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 751 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: PHI by 6.0; actual result: PHI by 2. The difference was 4 points.
5,504 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Philadelphia Eagles by 6
Final margin Philadelphia Eagles by 2
Difference 4 points
Washington Commanders covered the spread.
5,504 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (75.6%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score PHI by 2.4
Actual final margin PHI by 2
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Philadelphia Eagles chance to win during the game 145 preplay estimates across 171 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 26 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 0 + No plays met the scan criteria.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 171 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 171 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 3. 83-J.Lane to WAS 36 for 33 yards (35-M.Carter). Play 39 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 3. 83-J.Lane to WAS 36 for 33 yards (35-M.Carter).
Q114:53 (14:53) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WAS 47 for 11 yards (29-M.Epps; 11-J.Campbell). Play 62 (14:53) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WAS 47 for 11 yards (29-M.Epps; 11-J.Campbell).
Q114:11 (14:11) 1-R.White left tackle to WAS 47 for no gain (90-J.Davis). Play 84 (14:11) 1-R.White left tackle to WAS 47 for no gain (90-J.Davis).
Q113:28 (13:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 80 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q307:48 Penalty · WAS (7:48) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -7.34 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 37
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1360
Half seconds remaining 1360
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 3 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 4:39 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 ab0c455c4dc1db4bc8de52fe5cabc562f63b376d207265c78d7fbae9ffb4940bnflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 2:04 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 96452de58a2a2baefe9cc090fa3177fb84083d3183c83914b9e9d93f2bf7d281ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 23, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 55c29a825731ec1721ef9414babc2e51226f9e6dbee71b277cbbd19af0f11ebcThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
785 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 751 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Shawn Smith Head official In 77 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12 accepted penalties for 96.9 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.8 / 47.7 yd per game. Away teams: 6.2 / 49.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Shawn Smith; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Philadelphia Eagles · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Philadelphia Eagles · Opponent penalties Opponent WAS was charged 6 penalties for 45 yards.
Washington Commanders · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Washington Commanders · Opponent penalties Opponent PHI was charged 5 penalties for 40 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 145 model estimates across 171 recorded game entries.
26 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (171 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 1.05 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 0.78 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 3.64 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 0.67 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -7.34 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -1.95 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 1.69 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 0.52 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 0.77 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 0.66 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -1.8 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -0.4 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
WAS Fourth down decision cost 1.13 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29575/0.28441/0.27949 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0.46 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64279/0.57367/0.63815 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56895/ NA/0.61760 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 1.19 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37304/ NA/0.36119 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18053/ NA/0.18953 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76067/ NA/0.77075 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14081/ NA/0.16526 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09311/0.08992/0.06663 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0.72 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81137/ NA/0.80422 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 1.27 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77765/ NA/0.76495 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 2.61 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22132/ NA/0.19524 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74014/ NA/0.75959 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.21365/0.22309/0.19190 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72892/ NA/0.78569 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0.11 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15623/ NA/0.15513 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85805/0.88104/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09012/0.05309/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
PHI Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.6 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 84th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
WAS Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.6 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 84th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
PHI Field goal points above expectation 0.17 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 3rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
WAS Field goal points above expectation -1.11 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 43rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
PHI Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 77th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
WAS Extra point points above expectation 0.44 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 84th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
PHI Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Charted drops 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PHI Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PHI QB attributed sacks 3 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PHI Catchable targets 16 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Catchable targets 22 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PHI Contested targets 4 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Contested targets 5 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PHI Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Receiver created receptions 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
WAS Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
74 of 74 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 74 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.3 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
74 of 74 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 74 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.37 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 29 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.41 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 29 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.02 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 54 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 2.1 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 54 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.57 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 106
(13:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay.
Q113:25 (13:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to PHI 40 for 13 yards (29-M.Epps). Penalty on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, declined. Play 131 (13:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to PHI 40 for 13 yards (29-M.Epps). Penalty on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q112:59 (12:59) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Play 180 (12:59) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right.
Q112:51 (12:51) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 40 for no gain (90-J.Davis). Play 203 (12:51) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 40 for no gain (90-J.Davis).
Q112:08 (12:08) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to PHI 37 for 3 yards (3-N.Smith; 97-M.Ojomo). Play 225 (12:08) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to PHI 37 for 3 yards (3-N.Smith; 97-M.Ojomo).
Q111:29 (11:29) 19-D.Stevens 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 247 (11:29) 19-D.Stevens 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q111:23 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PHI 35. Play 267 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PHI 35.
Q111:23 (11:23) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 26-S.Barkley. Play 286 (11:23) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 26-S.Barkley.
Q111:18 (11:18) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 40 for 5 yards (25-N.Cross; 97-T.Settle). Play 309 (11:18) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 40 for 5 yards (25-N.Cross; 97-T.Settle).
Q110:34 (10:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left tackle ran ob at PHI 46 for 6 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 331 (10:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left tackle ran ob at PHI 46 for 6 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q109:57 (9:57) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 45 for -1 yards (98-O.Oweh). Play 358 (9:57) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 45 for -1 yards (98-O.Oweh).
Q109:23 (9:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon pushed ob at PHI 48 for 3 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 380 (9:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon pushed ob at PHI 48 for 3 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q108:47 (8:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 13-D.Wicks (29-R.Douglas). Play 410 (8:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 13-D.Wicks (29-R.Douglas).
Q108:43 (8:43) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. Play 433 (8:43) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
Q108:33 (8:33) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 6 for no gain (29-M.Epps). Play 452 (8:33) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 6 for no gain (29-M.Epps).
Q107:53 (7:53) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs. Play 474 (7:53) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs.
Q107:48 (7:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Brown. Play 497 (7:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Brown.
Q107:42 (7:42) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for -1 yards (18-T.Owens). Play 520 (7:42) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for -1 yards (18-T.Owens).
Q107:32 (7:32) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 44 for 5 yards (2-A.Robertson; 4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40. Play 546 (7:32) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 44 for 5 yards (2-A.Robertson; 4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40.
Q107:07 (7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 25 for -5 yards (25-N.Cross). Play 579 (7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 25 for -5 yards (25-N.Cross).
Q106:25 (6:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to PHI 37 for 12 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 604 (6:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to PHI 37 for 12 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q105:41 (5:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 28 for -9 yards (4-F.Luvu). Play 629 (5:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 28 for -9 yards (4-F.Luvu).
Q105:09 (5:09) 10-B.Mann punts 64 yards to WAS 8, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 22 for 14 yards (80-D.Cooper). Play 649 (5:09) 10-B.Mann punts 64 yards to WAS 8, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 22 for 14 yards (80-D.Cooper).
Q104:57 (4:57) 1-R.White left tackle to WAS 26 for 4 yards (3-N.Smith). Play 675 (4:57) 1-R.White left tackle to WAS 26 for 4 yards (3-N.Smith).
Q104:15 (4:15) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 87-J.Bates to WAS 31 for 5 yards (57-A.Epenesa; 90-J.Davis). Play 697 (4:15) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 87-J.Bates to WAS 31 for 5 yards (57-A.Epenesa; 90-J.Davis).
Q103:31 (3:31) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 1-R.White up the middle to WAS 31 for no gain (98-J.Carter; 53-Z.Baun). Play 722 (3:31) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 1-R.White up the middle to WAS 31 for no gain (98-J.Carter; 53-Z.Baun).
Q102:49 (2:49) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 15 yards (56-K.Medrano). Play 746 (2:49) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 15 yards (56-K.Medrano).
Q102:38 (2:38) 26-S.Barkley right end to PHI 30 for 6 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 772 (2:38) 26-S.Barkley right end to PHI 30 for 6 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q101:57 (1:57) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks to WAS 6 for 64 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 801 (1:57) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks to WAS 6 for 64 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q101:02 Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:02. Play 838 Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:02.
Q101:02 (1:02) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to WAS 2 for 4 yards (4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 6 - No Play. Play 826 (1:02) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to WAS 2 for 4 yards (4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 6 - No Play.
Q100:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to WAS 18 for -2 yards (99-J.Kinlaw). Play 866 (:39) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to WAS 18 for -2 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 888 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to WAS 17 for 1 yard (25-N.Cross). Play 908 (15:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to WAS 17 for 1 yard (25-N.Cross).
Q214:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 930 (14:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q214:11 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 956 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q214:11 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 3. 1-R.White to WAS 32 for 29 yards (80-D.Cooper). Play 971 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 3. 1-R.White to WAS 32 for 29 yards (80-D.Cooper).
Q214:04 (14:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 33 for 1 yard (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 1001 (14:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 33 for 1 yard (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q213:21 (13:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin. Play 1026 (13:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin.
Q213:16 (13:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Diggs. Play 1049 (13:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Diggs.
Q213:08 (13:08) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 27 for 11 yards (58-J.Magee). Play 1081 (13:08) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 27 for 11 yards (58-J.Magee).
Q212:58 (12:58) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to PHI 31 for 4 yards (25-N.Cross). Play 1112 (12:58) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to PHI 31 for 4 yards (25-N.Cross).
Q212:20 (12:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon [45-K.Chaisson]. Play 1141 (12:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon [45-K.Chaisson].
Q212:16 (12:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks. Play 1164 (12:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks.
Q212:11 (12:11) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 16 for 9 yards (80-D.Cooper). Play 1187 (12:11) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 16 for 9 yards (80-D.Cooper).
Q212:01 (12:01) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at WAS 18 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 1222 (12:01) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at WAS 18 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q211:24 (11:24) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 27 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 1256 (11:24) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 27 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q210:42 (10:42) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end to WAS 32 for 5 yards (53-Z.Baun; 33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on WAS-22-J.Croskey-Merritt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 27 - No Play. Play 1278 (10:42) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end to WAS 32 for 5 yards (53-Z.Baun; 33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on WAS-22-J.Croskey-Merritt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 27 - No Play.
Q210:19 (10:19) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (53-Z.Baun). Play 1311 (10:19) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (53-Z.Baun).
Q210:15 (10:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt to WAS 10 for -7 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 1334 (10:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt to WAS 10 for -7 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q209:33 (9:33) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to WAS 19 for 9 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 1359 (9:33) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to WAS 19 for 9 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q208:57 (8:57) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 12 yards (18-T.Owens). Play 1381 (8:57) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 12 yards (18-T.Owens).
Q208:46 (8:46) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right. Play 1407 (8:46) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.
Q208:36 (8:36) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 46 for 8 yards (54-L.Chenal; 25-N.Cross). Play 1437 (8:36) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 46 for 8 yards (54-L.Chenal; 25-N.Cross).
Q208:10 (8:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to WAS 12 for 42 yards (39-J.Reaves; 25-N.Cross). Play 1466 (8:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to WAS 12 for 42 yards (39-J.Reaves; 25-N.Cross).
Q207:21 (7:21) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle to WAS 9 for 3 yards (96-S.Tuttle; 4-F.Luvu). Play 1488 (7:21) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle to WAS 9 for 3 yards (96-S.Tuttle; 4-F.Luvu).
Q206:35 (6:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1510 (6:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q206:27 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 1536 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q206:27 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 3. 1-R.White to WAS 33 for 30 yards (42-S.Mondon; 80-D.Cooper). Play 1551 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 3. 1-R.White to WAS 33 for 30 yards (42-S.Mondon; 80-D.Cooper).
Q206:21 (6:21) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 44 for 11 yards (29-M.Epps). Play 1581 (6:21) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 44 for 11 yards (29-M.Epps).
Q205:59 (5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs to PHI 41 for 15 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 1603 (5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs to PHI 41 for 15 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q205:37 (5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo. Play 1628 (5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo.
Q205:28 (5:28) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 41 - No Play. Play 1651 (5:28) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 41 - No Play.
Q205:28 (5:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right. Play 1675 (5:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right.
Q205:19 (5:19) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles left tackle pushed ob at PHI 32 for 14 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 1698 (5:19) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles left tackle pushed ob at PHI 32 for 14 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q204:41 (4:41) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun). Play 1725 (4:41) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun).
Q203:58 (3:58) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to PHI 19 for 9 yards (58-J.Hunt). Play 1747 (3:58) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to PHI 19 for 9 yards (58-J.Hunt).
Q203:33 (3:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle to PHI 19 for no gain (17-A.Ebiketie). Play 1769 (3:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle to PHI 19 for no gain (17-A.Ebiketie).
Q202:51 (2:51) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to PHI 17 for 2 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 1791 (2:51) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to PHI 17 for 2 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q202:10 (2:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Play 1813 (2:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right.
Q202:03 (2:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-A.Williams to PHI 1 for 16 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 1836 (2:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-A.Williams to PHI 1 for 16 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q201:56 (1:56) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1861 (1:56) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q201:53 19-D.Stevens extra point is Blocked (98-J.Carter), Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 1891 19-D.Stevens extra point is Blocked (98-J.Carter), Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q201:53 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 0. 8-T.Bigsby ran ob at PHI 29 for 29 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 1906 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 0. 8-T.Bigsby ran ob at PHI 29 for 29 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q201:48 (1:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end to PHI 34 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 1941 (1:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end to PHI 34 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q201:21 (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 39 for 5 yards (2-A.Robertson; 4-F.Luvu). Play 1963 (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 39 for 5 yards (2-A.Robertson; 4-F.Luvu).
Q200:59 (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 28-W.Shipley ran ob at PHI 47 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 1988 (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 28-W.Shipley ran ob at PHI 47 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q200:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Smith. Play 2018 (:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Smith.
Q200:48 (:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 6-D.Smith (90-C.Omenihu). Play 2041 (:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 6-D.Smith (90-C.Omenihu).
Q200:45 (:45) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 2, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo. Play 2064 (:45) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 2, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.
Q200:33 Timeout #1 by WAS at 00:33. Play 2096 Timeout #1 by WAS at 00:33.
Q200:33 (:33) 1-R.White up the middle to WAS 6 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun). Play 2084 (:33) 1-R.White up the middle to WAS 6 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2113 Q315:00 19-D.Stevens kicks 60 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 5. 8-T.Bigsby to PHI 26 for 21 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 2133 19-D.Stevens kicks 60 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 5. 8-T.Bigsby to PHI 26 for 21 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q314:52 (14:52) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 25 for -1 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 2161 (14:52) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 25 for -1 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q314:13 (14:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 22 for -3 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 2188 (14:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 22 for -3 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q313:31 (13:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 34 for 12 yards (25-N.Cross). Play 2213 (13:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 34 for 12 yards (25-N.Cross).
Q313:00 (13:00) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 22, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 41 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 2243 (13:00) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 22, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 41 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q312:47 (12:47) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 44 for 3 yards (97-M.Ojomo). Play 2269 (12:47) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 44 for 3 yards (97-M.Ojomo).
Q312:07 (12:07) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 3-S.Diggs. Play 2298 (12:07) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 3-S.Diggs.
Q312:01 (12:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-R.White to WAS 47 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 2321 (12:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-R.White to WAS 47 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q311:20 (11:20) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback. Play 2346 (11:20) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
Q311:11 (11:11) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 14 for -6 yards (52-S.Styles). Play 2364 (11:11) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 14 for -6 yards (52-S.Styles).
Q310:28 (10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 24 for 10 yards (2-A.Robertson; 52-S.Styles). Play 2391 (10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 24 for 10 yards (2-A.Robertson; 52-S.Styles).
Q310:03 Timeout #1 by WAS at 10:03. Play 2428 Timeout #1 by WAS at 10:03.
Q310:03 (10:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith. Play 2416 (10:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith.
Q309:55 (9:55) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 33, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 44 for 11 yards (42-S.Mondon; 28-W.Shipley). Play 2446 (9:55) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 33, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 44 for 11 yards (42-S.Mondon; 28-W.Shipley).
Q309:46 (9:46) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play. Play 2472 (9:46) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play.
Q309:46 (9:46) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 42 for 3 yards (90-J.Davis; 11-J.Campbell). Play 2503 (9:46) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 42 for 3 yards (90-J.Davis; 11-J.Campbell).
Q309:12 (9:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo to PHI 43 for 15 yards (24-A.Mukuba). Play 2525 (9:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo to PHI 43 for 15 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
Q308:30 (8:30) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to PHI 42 for 1 yard (90-J.Davis). Play 2550 (8:30) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to PHI 42 for 1 yard (90-J.Davis).
Q307:48 (7:48) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 42 - No Play. Play 2572 (7:48) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 42 - No Play.
Q307:40 (7:40) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 36 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun). Play 2606 (7:40) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 36 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun).
Q306:59 (6:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 3-S.Diggs. Play 2628 (6:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 3-S.Diggs.
Q306:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Brown [33-C.DeJean]. Play 2651 (6:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Brown [33-C.DeJean].
Q306:51 (6:51) 19-D.Stevens 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 2674 (6:51) 19-D.Stevens 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q306:46 (6:46) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 47 for 3 yards (94-D.Payne). Play 2695 (6:46) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 47 for 3 yards (94-D.Payne).
Q306:12 (6:12) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 44 for -3 yards (52-S.Styles). Play 2724 (6:12) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 44 for -3 yards (52-S.Styles).
Q305:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 38 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). Play 2755 (5:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 38 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh).
Q305:19 (5:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 11, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. Play 2786 (5:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 11, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
Q305:10 (5:10) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen up the middle to WAS 16 for 5 yards (53-Z.Baun; 58-J.Hunt). Play 2817 (5:10) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen up the middle to WAS 16 for 5 yards (53-Z.Baun; 58-J.Hunt).
Q304:38 (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right. Play 2846 (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right.
Q304:29 (4:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 16 - No Play. Play 2869 (4:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 16 - No Play.
Q304:29 (4:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 83-J.Lane to WAS 15 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 2893 (4:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 83-J.Lane to WAS 15 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q303:52 (3:52) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. Play 2921 (3:52) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
Q303:44 (3:44) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 45 for 5 yards (25-N.Cross). PENALTY on PHI-69-L.Dickerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. Play 2950 (3:44) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 45 for 5 yards (25-N.Cross). PENALTY on PHI-69-L.Dickerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Q303:14 (3:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right tackle to PHI 44 for 14 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 2986 (3:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right tackle to PHI 44 for 14 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q302:44 (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end to PHI 45 for 1 yard (52-S.Styles). Play 3008 (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end to PHI 45 for 1 yard (52-S.Styles).
Q302:01 (2:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at WAS 24 for 31 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 3030 (2:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at WAS 24 for 31 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q301:43 (1:43) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right [45-K.Chaisson]. Play 3060 (1:43) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right [45-K.Chaisson].
Q301:35 (1:35) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to WAS 17 for 7 yards (54-L.Chenal). Play 3083 (1:35) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to WAS 17 for 7 yards (54-L.Chenal).
Q300:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert. Play 3105 (:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert.
Q300:48 (:48) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 3128 (:48) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q300:44 4-J.Elliott kicks 58 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 7. 83-J.Lane to WAS 33 for 26 yards (54-J.Trotter). WAS-18-T.Owens was injured during the play. Play 3148 4-J.Elliott kicks 58 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 7. 83-J.Lane to WAS 33 for 26 yards (54-J.Trotter). WAS-18-T.Owens was injured during the play.
Q300:40 (:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right tackle to WAS 46 for 13 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 3179 (:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right tackle to WAS 46 for 13 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3208 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-J.Bates to PHI 46 for 8 yards (29-M.Epps). Play 3228 (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-J.Bates to PHI 46 for 8 yards (29-M.Epps).
Q414:17 (14:17) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 43 for 3 yards (11-J.Campbell; 33-C.DeJean). Play 3253 (14:17) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 43 for 3 yards (11-J.Campbell; 33-C.DeJean).
Q413:36 (13:36) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to PHI 41 for 2 yards (53-Z.Baun). Play 3275 (13:36) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to PHI 41 for 2 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q412:58 (12:58) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at PHI 42 for -1 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 3302 (12:58) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at PHI 42 for -1 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q412:12 (12:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 42 - No Play. Play 3322 (12:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 42 - No Play.
Q412:12 (12:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at PHI 14 for 33 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 3346 (12:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at PHI 14 for 33 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q411:34 (11:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left end to PHI 12 for 2 yards (97-M.Ojomo). Play 3376 (11:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left end to PHI 12 for 2 yards (97-M.Ojomo).
Q410:48 (10:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-R.White to PHI 10 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell; 29-M.Epps). Play 3398 (10:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-R.White to PHI 10 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell; 29-M.Epps).
Q410:04 (10:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-3-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Play 3423 (10:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-3-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q409:59 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 3460 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q409:59 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 1. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 26 for 25 yards (41-J.Jean-Baptiste; 80-C.Yankoff). Play 3475 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 1. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 26 for 25 yards (41-J.Jean-Baptiste; 80-C.Yankoff).
Q409:53 (9:53) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 32 for 6 yards (58-J.Magee; 0-M.Sainristil). Play 3505 (9:53) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 32 for 6 yards (58-J.Magee; 0-M.Sainristil).
Q409:13 (9:13) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 39 for 7 yards (98-O.Oweh; 39-J.Reaves). Play 3527 (9:13) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 39 for 7 yards (98-O.Oweh; 39-J.Reaves).
Q408:50 (8:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 36 for -3 yards (25-N.Cross). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 3549 (8:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 36 for -3 yards (25-N.Cross). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q408:11 (8:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 36 - No Play. Play 3571 (8:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 36 - No Play.
Q408:11 (8:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right. Play 3597 (8:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.
Q408:03 (8:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 3620 (8:03) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q407:29 (7:29) (No Huddle) 28-W.Shipley right tackle to WAS 45 for 2 yards (97-T.Settle; 54-L.Chenal). Play 3642 (7:29) (No Huddle) 28-W.Shipley right tackle to WAS 45 for 2 yards (97-T.Settle; 54-L.Chenal).
Q406:56 (6:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley left guard to WAS 43 for 2 yards (99-J.Kinlaw; 97-T.Settle). Play 3672 (6:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley left guard to WAS 43 for 2 yards (99-J.Kinlaw; 97-T.Settle).
Q406:12 (6:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3694 (6:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q406:02 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 3720 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q406:02 4-J.Elliott kicks 64 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 1. 83-J.Lane to WAS 37 for 36 yards (57-A.Epenesa). Play 3735 4-J.Elliott kicks 64 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 1. 83-J.Lane to WAS 37 for 36 yards (57-A.Epenesa).
Q405:57 (5:57) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at PHI 49 for 14 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 3765 (5:57) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at PHI 49 for 14 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q405:31 (5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 46 for 3 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 3795 (5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 46 for 3 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q404:48 (4:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at PHI 29 for 17 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 3817 (4:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at PHI 29 for 17 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q404:40 (4:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 21 for 8 yards (33-C.DeJean; 98-J.Carter). Play 3847 (4:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 21 for 8 yards (33-C.DeJean; 98-J.Carter).
Q404:13 (4:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 19 for 2 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), recovered by WAS-72-J.Conerly at PHI 18. Play 3872 (4:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 19 for 2 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), recovered by WAS-72-J.Conerly at PHI 18.
Q403:15 (3:15) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen left guard to PHI 14 for 4 yards (58-J.Hunt; 33-C.DeJean). Play 3910 (3:15) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen left guard to PHI 14 for 4 yards (58-J.Hunt; 33-C.DeJean).
Q402:36 (2:36) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen up the middle to PHI 10 for 4 yards (53-Z.Baun; 33-C.DeJean). Play 3932 (2:36) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen up the middle to PHI 10 for 4 yards (53-Z.Baun; 33-C.DeJean).
Q402:08 (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Bates (53-Z.Baun). Play 3954 (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Bates (53-Z.Baun).
Q402:04 Timeout #2 by WAS at 02:04. Play 3999 Timeout #2 by WAS at 02:04.
Q402:04 (2:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 4 for 6 yards (29-M.Epps). Play 3977 (2:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 4 for 6 yards (29-M.Epps).
Q401:57 (1:57) 31-K.Allen up the middle to PHI 1 for 3 yards (90-J.Davis; 94-B.Young). Play 4019 (1:57) 31-K.Allen up the middle to PHI 1 for 3 yards (90-J.Davis; 94-B.Young).
Q401:12 (1:12) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Play 4048 (1:12) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right.
Q401:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. Play 4071 (1:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q401:01 (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Daniels pass to 87-J.Bates is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 4132 (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Daniels pass to 87-J.Bates is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q401:01 Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:01. Play 4158 Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:01.
Q401:01 19-D.Stevens kicks onside 17 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 48. 6-D.Smith (didn't try to advance) to PHI 48 for no gain. Play 4145 19-D.Stevens kicks onside 17 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 48. 6-D.Smith (didn't try to advance) to PHI 48 for no gain.
Q401:00 (1:00) 1-J.Hurts kneels to PHI 47 for -1 yards. Play 4175 (1:00) 1-J.Hurts kneels to PHI 47 for -1 yards.
Q400:19 (:19) 1-J.Hurts kneels to PHI 46 for -1 yards. Play 4197 (:19) 1-J.Hurts kneels to PHI 46 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 1360
Half seconds remaining 1360
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -1.95 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 37
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1360
Half seconds remaining 1360
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1360
Half seconds remaining 1360
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:46 Penalty · WAS (9:46) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 3.64 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 15
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1486
Half seconds remaining 1486
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 56
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1486
Half seconds remaining 1486
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 0.67 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 15
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1486
Half seconds remaining 1486
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 56
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1486
Half seconds remaining 1486
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q311:20 Fourth down · WAS (11:20) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 2.61 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.635918432141739
Yardline 100 53
Elapsed share 0.5611111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1580
Half seconds remaining 1580
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 680
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2213216487260062 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22132/ NA/0.19524 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:11 Penalty · PHI (8:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -1.8 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 18
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 491
Half seconds remaining 491
Quarter seconds remaining 491
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 13
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 491
Half seconds remaining 491
Quarter seconds remaining 491
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -0.4 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 18
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 491
Half seconds remaining 491
Quarter seconds remaining 491
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 13
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 491
Half seconds remaining 491
Quarter seconds remaining 491
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q304:29 Penalty · WAS (4:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 1.69 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1169
Half seconds remaining 1169
Quarter seconds remaining 269
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 5
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1169
Half seconds remaining 1169
Quarter seconds remaining 269
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 0.52 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1169
Half seconds remaining 1169
Quarter seconds remaining 269
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 5
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1169
Half seconds remaining 1169
Quarter seconds remaining 269
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q313:00 Fourth down · PHI (13:00) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 22, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 41 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 1.27 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.7106509740828222
Yardline 100 66
Elapsed share 0.5333333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1680
Half seconds remaining 1680
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 780
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7776451536478031 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77765/ NA/0.76495 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:49 Fourth down · WAS (2:49) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 15 yards (56-K.Medrano). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 1.19 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 2.663223542065411
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.2030555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2869
Half seconds remaining 1069
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 169
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3730364221386666 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37304/ NA/0.36119 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:28 Penalty · WAS (5:28) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 1.05 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 15
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 2128
Half seconds remaining 328
Quarter seconds remaining 328
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 41
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 2128
Half seconds remaining 328
Quarter seconds remaining 328
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 0.78 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 15
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 2128
Half seconds remaining 328
Quarter seconds remaining 328
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 41
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 2128
Half seconds remaining 328
Quarter seconds remaining 328
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q412:12 Penalty · WAS (12:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 0.77 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 732
Half seconds remaining 732
Quarter seconds remaining 732
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 732
Half seconds remaining 732
Quarter seconds remaining 732
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 0.66 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 732
Half seconds remaining 732
Quarter seconds remaining 732
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 732
Half seconds remaining 732
Quarter seconds remaining 732
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q200:45 Fourth down · PHI (:45) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 2, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0.72 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.8536444295190815
Yardline 100 53
Elapsed share 0.4875
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 5
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1845
Half seconds remaining 45
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 45
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8113718810119596 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81137/ NA/0.80422 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q108:43 Fourth down · PHI (8:43) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0.46 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 3.94666366543073
Yardline 100 52
Elapsed share 0.1047222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3223
Half seconds remaining 1423
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 523
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6427945286767686 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64279/0.57367/0.63815 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:52 Fourth down · WAS (3:52) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0.11 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.3865620992899697
Yardline 100 85
Elapsed share 0.6855555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1132
Half seconds remaining 1132
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 232
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1562349809633434 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15623/ NA/0.15513 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 68 recorded events Q105:09 Fourth down · PHI (5:09) 10-B.Mann punts 64 yards to WAS 8, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 22 for 14 yards (80-D.Cooper). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 21
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 3.111462281176451
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.1641666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3009
Half seconds remaining 1209
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 309
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6175972752403396 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56895/ NA/0.61760 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:08 Fourth down · WAS (13:08) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 27 for 11 yards (58-J.Magee). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 1.948997279701105
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.2811111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q212:11 Fourth down · PHI (12:11) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 16 for 9 yards (80-D.Cooper). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 1.829388378243164
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.2969444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q208:57 Fourth down · WAS (8:57) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 12 yards (18-T.Owens). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 18
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 1.47465805514399
Yardline 100 81
Elapsed share 0.3508333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q309:55 Fourth down · PHI (9:55) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 33, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 44 for 11 yards (42-S.Mondon; 28-W.Shipley). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.5786083705390319
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.5847222222222223
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q306:51 Kick · WAS (6:51) 19-D.Stevens 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.471623696709684
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.6358333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q305:19 Fourth down · PHI (5:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 11, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.4257955036588808
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.6613888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q300:48 Kick · PHI (:48) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.3150867764065521
Yardline 100 17
Elapsed share 0.7366666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q402:04 Fourth down · WAS (2:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 4 for 6 yards (29-M.Epps). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 0.1261274023653823
Yardline 100 10
Elapsed share 0.9655555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q113:25 Fourth down · WAS (13:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to PHI 40 for 13 yards (29-M.Epps). Penalty on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, declined. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q111:29 Kick · WAS (11:29) 19-D.Stevens 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 1.13 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 4.746061066083465
Yardline 100 37
Elapsed share 0.05861111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q107:42 Fourth down · WAS (7:42) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for -1 yards (18-T.Owens). + Fourth down decision cost WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:32 Penalty · PHI (7:32) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 44 for 5 yards (2-A.Robertson; 4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:02 Penalty · PHI (1:02) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to WAS 2 for 4 yards (4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 6 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:11 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q210:42 Penalty · WAS (10:42) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end to WAS 32 for 5 yards (53-Z.Baun; 33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on WAS-22-J.Croskey-Merritt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:27 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q204:41 Fourth down · WAS (4:41) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team WAS
Home team PHI
Away total 18.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6
Spread time 1.109580139926451
Yardline 100 32
Elapsed share 0.4219444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q201:53 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is Blocked (98-J.Carter), Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q303:44 Penalty · PHI (3:44) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 45 for 5 yards (25-N.Cross). PENALTY on PHI-69-L.Dickerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:04 Penalty · WAS (10:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-3-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q409:59 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Extra point points above expectation WAS 0.44 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:02 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q404:13 Fumble · WAS (4:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 19 for 2 yards (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), recovered by WAS-72-J.Conerly at PHI 18. + Fumble recoveries above expectation PHI -0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation WAS 0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:53 Execution · WAS (7:53) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs. + Charted drops WAS 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q105:41 Execution · PHI (5:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 28 for -9 yards (4-F.Luvu). + QB attributed sacks PHI 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q311:11 Execution · PHI (11:11) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 14 for -6 yards (52-S.Styles). + QB attributed sacks PHI 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q305:30 Execution · PHI (5:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 38 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). + QB attributed sacks PHI 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q111:23 Execution · PHI (11:23) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 26-S.Barkley. + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q109:23 Execution · PHI (9:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon pushed ob at PHI 48 for 3 yards (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q108:47 Execution · PHI (8:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 13-D.Wicks (29-R.Douglas). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Contested targets PHI 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q107:07 Execution · PHI (7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 25 for -5 yards (25-N.Cross). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q106:25 Execution · PHI (6:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to PHI 37 for 12 yards (20-Q.Martin). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q101:57 Execution · PHI (1:57) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks to WAS 6 for 64 yards (39-J.Reaves). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q214:17 Execution · PHI (14:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Contested targets PHI 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q206:35 Execution · PHI (6:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q201:21 Execution · PHI (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 39 for 5 yards (2-A.Robertson; 4-F.Luvu). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q200:59 Execution · PHI (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 28-W.Shipley ran ob at PHI 47 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q314:13 Execution · PHI (14:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 22 for -3 yards (20-Q.Martin). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q313:31 Execution · PHI (13:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 34 for 12 yards (25-N.Cross). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q310:28 Execution · PHI (10:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 24 for 10 yards (2-A.Robertson; 52-S.Styles). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q302:01 Execution · PHI (2:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at WAS 24 for 31 yards (29-R.Douglas). + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions PHI 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q408:50 Execution · PHI (8:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 36 for -3 yards (25-N.Cross). The ball spot was assisted by replay. + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q406:12 Execution · PHI (6:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets PHI 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q113:28 Execution · WAS (13:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay. + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q104:15 Execution · WAS (4:15) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 87-J.Bates to WAS 31 for 5 yards (57-A.Epenesa; 90-J.Davis). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q214:04 Execution · WAS (14:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 33 for 1 yard (27-Q.Mitchell). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q210:15 Execution · WAS (10:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt to WAS 10 for -7 yards (53-Z.Baun). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q205:59 Execution · WAS (5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs to PHI 41 for 15 yards (33-C.DeJean). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q202:03 Execution · WAS (2:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-A.Williams to PHI 1 for 16 yards (33-C.DeJean). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q312:01 Execution · WAS (12:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-R.White to WAS 47 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q309:12 Execution · WAS (9:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo to PHI 43 for 15 yards (24-A.Mukuba). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q306:56 Execution · WAS (6:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Brown [33-C.DeJean]. + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q304:29 Execution · WAS (4:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 83-J.Lane to WAS 15 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q415:00 Execution · WAS (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-J.Bates to PHI 46 for 8 yards (29-M.Epps). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q412:12 Execution · WAS (12:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at PHI 14 for 33 yards (11-J.Campbell). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q410:48 Execution · WAS (10:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-R.White to PHI 10 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell; 29-M.Epps). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q405:57 Execution · WAS (5:57) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at PHI 49 for 14 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q404:48 Execution · WAS (4:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at PHI 29 for 17 yards (33-C.DeJean). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q404:40 Execution · WAS (4:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 21 for 8 yards (33-C.DeJean; 98-J.Carter). + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q401:05 Execution · WAS (1:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q401:01 Execution · WAS (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Daniels pass to 87-J.Bates is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS. + Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q212:20 Execution · PHI (12:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon [45-K.Chaisson]. + Contested targets PHI 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q212:16 Execution · PHI (12:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks. + Contested targets PHI 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 25/25 eligible events modeled
Q107:48 Execution · WAS (7:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Brown. + Contested targets WAS 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q210:19 Execution · WAS (10:19) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (53-Z.Baun). + Contested targets WAS 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q205:37 Execution · WAS (5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo. + Contested targets WAS 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
Q402:08 Execution · WAS (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Bates (53-Z.Baun). + Contested targets WAS 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
nflverse-schedules Retrieved Sep 23, 2026, 9:54 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 9c482a3beeac8ff5203e5f66026aa3de8b187cb7623a14588006265e67902754
Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: dcf67bc3e74bc2fa71a186381a9c1992d3ddc6941831e62ce3c2c9daa838b018
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 9 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 23, 2026, 10:06 PM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 23, 2026, 9:03 PM UTC Version 7 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game profile audit and review priorities updated.
Sep 23, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed.
Sep 22, 2026, 9:26 PM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed.
Sep 22, 2026, 7:32 AM UTC Version 4 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game profile audit and review priorities updated.
Sep 22, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game profile audit and review priorities updated.
Sep 22, 2026, 4:18 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game profile audit and review priorities updated.
Sep 22, 2026, 2:18 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 21, 2026, 8:06 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-4
Game seconds remaining 2588
Half seconds remaining 788
Quarter seconds remaining 788
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1895277408058088 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18053/ NA/0.18953 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
4
Game seconds remaining 2531
Half seconds remaining 731
Quarter seconds remaining 731
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.770748916908812 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76067/ NA/0.77075 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-4
Game seconds remaining 2337
Half seconds remaining 537
Quarter seconds remaining 537
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1652617015214661 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14081/ NA/0.16526 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
5
Game seconds remaining 1495
Half seconds remaining 1495
Quarter seconds remaining 595
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7595892134002271 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74014/ NA/0.75959 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-5
Game seconds remaining 1311
Half seconds remaining 1311
Quarter seconds remaining 411
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2230861945205846 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.21365/0.22309/0.19190 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation WAS -1.11 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
5
Game seconds remaining 1219
Half seconds remaining 1219
Quarter seconds remaining 319
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7856938845877446 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72892/ NA/0.78569 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
5
Game seconds remaining 948
Half seconds remaining 948
Quarter seconds remaining 48
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8810425606911915 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85805/0.88104/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PHI 0.17 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-8
Game seconds remaining 124
Half seconds remaining 124
Quarter seconds remaining 124
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.09012398426583931 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09012/0.05309/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets WAS 22 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 35/35 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 3389
Half seconds remaining 1589
Quarter seconds remaining 689
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2957499665948006 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29575/0.28441/0.27949 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation WAS -1.11 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-11
Game seconds remaining 2081
Half seconds remaining 281
Quarter seconds remaining 281
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.09310537733089343 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09311/0.08992/0.06663 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled