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Debatable 2 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? 3 plays deserve a closer look.
Cleveland Browns gained 267 yards on offense. 6 penalties cost them 50 yards. They won the turnover battle by 1. How this rating was calculated This saved report uses the earlier rating rules. Open the latest report for the current calculation.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Opponent penalties Opponent CLE was charged 6 penalties for 50 yards.
Cleveland Browns · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Cleveland Browns · Opponent penalties Opponent TB was charged 6 penalties for 62 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v2
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost; overtime WP is omitted. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Tampa Bay Buccaneers chance to win during the game 141 preplay estimates across 172 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 31 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 3 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 00:22 Recorded game event
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Play 4242 (:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.
Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 26.3 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 03:39 Recorded game event
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Play 2770 (3:39) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton. Tampa Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 42 for 13 yards (20-N.Igbinoghene).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 3.3 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:45 Recorded game event
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Play 4156 (:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst. PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 13 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 10.7 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 172 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 172 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 60 yards from TB 35 to CLE 5. 11-M.Corley to CLE 33 for 28 yards (19-K.Johnson). Play 40 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 60 yards from TB 35 to CLE 5. 11-M.Corley to CLE 33 for 28 yards (19-K.Johnson).
Q114:54 (14:54) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 42 for 9 yards (21-B.Morrison). Play 63 (14:54) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 42 for 9 yards (21-B.Morrison).
Q114:18 (14:18) (No Huddle) 1-K.Concepcion left end to CLE 36 for -6 yards (0-Y.Diaby). Play 88 (14:18) (No Huddle) 1-K.Concepcion left end to CLE 36 for -6 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
Q113:36 (13:36) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 38 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter; 31-A.Winfield). Penalty on CLE-79-D.Jones, Illegal Formation, declined. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 35 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q107:29 Penalty · CLE (7:29) (Run formation) PENALTY on CLE-71-T.Howard, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB 2.99 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3149
Half seconds remaining 1349
Quarter seconds remaining 449
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 4
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 21, 2026, 7:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5049a63cbdab8208e08ab7850fde11803d1d94ec412b3376b7c055b2f376d217nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 21, 2026, 8:58 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 17356223f0da917661cfe50c8db50e4bed2d4a4dcab3172fd209647f112d5729nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 3ed8588f49d23a70f85a31a13fce6fa76ac80ebdacf0e08fa871df7edae9dd03nflverse-team-stats
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 141 model estimates across 172 recorded game entries.
31 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (172 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence 0.59 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence 0.5 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence 2.99 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence 1.16 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence 0.06 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence -0.14 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 2.3 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81508/0.79205/0.80403 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 1.62 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19232/0.17612/0.16268 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 1.72 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81391/0.79674/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13897/ NA/0.15983 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17591/0.20673/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73346/ NA/0.74362 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67902/ NA/0.73055 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26410/ NA/0.23619 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72575/0.79439/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08230/0.08471/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84794/ NA/0.88163 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59221/ NA/0.61858 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32071/ NA/0.33047 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71311/0.73618/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15987/0.00000/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
TB Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.66 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 93rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
CLE Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.66 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 93rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
TB Field goal points above expectation 1.94 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
CLE Field goal points above expectation 0.98 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
TB Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
CLE Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
TB Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
CLE Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
CLE Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.14 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
58 of 58 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 58 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.96 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
58 of 58 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 58 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.49 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
40 of 40 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 40 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
40 of 40 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 40 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.32 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.86 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.36 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 110
(13:36) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 38 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter; 31-A.Winfield). Penalty on CLE-79-D.Jones, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q113:28 (13:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 5 yards (54-S.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 21. Play 143 (13:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 5 yards (54-S.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 21.
Q113:16 (13:16) PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at TB 36 - No Play. Play 189 (13:16) PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at TB 36 - No Play.
Q113:16 (13:16) 14-C.Godwin right end to CLE 47 for 12 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 213 (13:16) 14-C.Godwin right end to CLE 47 for 12 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q112:50 (12:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.Hurst. Play 235 (12:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.Hurst.
Q112:43 (12:43) (Shotgun) 2-E.Egbuka left end pushed ob at 50 for -3 yards (7-T.Campbell, 26-M.Harden). Play 258 (12:43) (Shotgun) 2-E.Egbuka left end pushed ob at 50 for -3 yards (7-T.Campbell, 26-M.Harden).
Q112:02 (12:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CLE 41 for 9 yards (26-M.Harden; 21-D.Ward). Play 285 (12:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CLE 41 for 9 yards (26-M.Harden; 21-D.Ward).
Q111:16 (11:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 310 (11:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q111:10 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 51 yards from TB 35 to CLE 14. 11-M.Corley to CLE 28 for 14 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 330 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 51 yards from TB 35 to CLE 14. 11-M.Corley to CLE 28 for 14 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q111:04 (11:04) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to CLE 37 for 9 yards (31-A.Winfield). Play 360 (11:04) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to CLE 37 for 9 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q110:27 (10:27) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 43 for 6 yards (91-A.Robinson). Play 382 (10:27) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 43 for 6 yards (91-A.Robinson).
Q109:50 (9:50) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at TB 36 for 21 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 31-A.Winfield) [0-Y.Diaby]. Play 404 (9:50) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at TB 36 for 21 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 31-A.Winfield) [0-Y.Diaby].
Q109:18 (9:18) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to TB 34 for 2 yards (94-C.Kancey). Play 434 (9:18) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to TB 34 for 2 yards (94-C.Kancey).
Q108:45 (8:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to TB 34 for no gain (98-A.Nelson). Play 456 (8:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to TB 34 for no gain (98-A.Nelson).
Q108:06 (8:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 23-R.Sanders to TB 27 for 7 yards (45-J.Trotter; 34-A.Anzalone). Play 481 (8:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 23-R.Sanders to TB 27 for 7 yards (45-J.Trotter; 34-A.Anzalone).
Q107:29 (7:29) (Run formation) PENALTY on CLE-71-T.Howard, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 27 - No Play. Play 506 (7:29) (Run formation) PENALTY on CLE-71-T.Howard, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 27 - No Play.
Q107:17 (7:17) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 530 (7:17) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q107:12 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to TB 1. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 25 for 24 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 550 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to TB 1. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 25 for 24 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q107:07 (7:07) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 29 for 4 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 98-A.Huntington). Play 580 (7:07) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 29 for 4 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 98-A.Huntington).
Q106:27 (6:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to CLE 33 for 38 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 602 (6:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to CLE 33 for 38 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q105:37 (5:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to CLE 30 for 3 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 624 (5:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to CLE 30 for 3 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q104:50 (4:50) 7-B.Irving left guard to CLE 27 for 3 yards (7-T.Campbell). Play 649 (4:50) 7-B.Irving left guard to CLE 27 for 3 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q104:09 (4:09) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Gainwell. Play 671 (4:09) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Gainwell.
Q104:06 (4:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 694 (4:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q104:02 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 58 yards from TB 35 to CLE 7. 11-M.Corley to CLE 33 for 26 yards (19-K.Johnson). Play 714 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 58 yards from TB 35 to CLE 7. 11-M.Corley to CLE 33 for 26 yards (19-K.Johnson).
Q103:56 (3:56) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 35 for 2 yards (91-A.Robinson; 50-V.Vea). Play 744 (3:56) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 35 for 2 yards (91-A.Robinson; 50-V.Vea).
Q103:17 (3:17) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 31 for -4 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 766 (3:17) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 31 for -4 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q102:40 (2:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 44-H.Fannin. Play 788 (2:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 44-H.Fannin.
Q102:34 (2:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to TB 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. Play 823 (2:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to TB 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
Q102:28 (2:28) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 17 for 0 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 842 (2:28) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 17 for 0 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q101:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Otton [94-M.Graham]. Play 888 (1:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Otton [94-M.Graham].
Q101:48 (1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to TB 31 for 14 yards (26-M.Harden). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TB 31. Play 911 (1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to TB 31 for 14 yards (26-M.Harden). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TB 31.
Q101:19 (1:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Harden at CLE 47. 26-M.Harden to TB 28 for 25 yards (17-T.Hurst). Play 944 (1:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Harden at CLE 47. 26-M.Harden to TB 28 for 25 yards (17-T.Hurst).
Q101:09 (1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins pushed ob at TB 24 for 4 yards (21-B.Morrison). PENALTY on TB-34-A.Anzalone, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at TB 24. Play 971 (1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins pushed ob at TB 24 for 4 yards (21-B.Morrison). PENALTY on TB-34-A.Anzalone, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at TB 24.
Q100:57 (:57) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to TB 6 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 11. Play 1012 (:57) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to TB 6 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 11.
Q100:38 (:38) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston. Play 1045 (:38) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston.
Q100:34 (:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston to TB 13 for 8 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 21-B.Morrison). Play 1068 (:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston to TB 13 for 8 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 21-B.Morrison).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1093 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at TB 21 for -8 yards (51-D.Walker). Play 1113 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at TB 21 for -8 yards (51-D.Walker).
Q214:18 (14:18) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at TB 21 - No Play. Play 1133 (14:18) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at TB 21 - No Play.
Q214:02 (14:02) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 1157 (14:02) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q213:59 25-A.Szmyt kicks 60 yards from CLE 35 to TB 5. 1-K.Gainwell pushed ob at TB 29 for 24 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 1177 25-A.Szmyt kicks 60 yards from CLE 35 to TB 5. 1-K.Gainwell pushed ob at TB 29 for 24 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q213:54 (13:54) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 34 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman; 7-T.Campbell). Play 1205 (13:54) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 34 for 5 yards (33-R.Hickman; 7-T.Campbell).
Q213:30 (13:30) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to TB 31 for -3 yards (5-Q.Williams). Play 1227 (13:30) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to TB 31 for -3 yards (5-Q.Williams).
Q212:44 (12:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 40 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman). PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 31 - No Play. Play 1252 (12:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 40 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman). PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 31 - No Play.
Q212:11 (12:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 17-T.Hurst to TB 42 for 21 yards (7-T.Campbell). Play 1288 (12:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 17-T.Hurst to TB 42 for 21 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q211:25 (11:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 46 for 4 yards (54-S.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 1313 (11:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 46 for 4 yards (54-S.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q210:51 (10:51) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 45 for -1 yards (97-D.Barnett, 5-Q.Williams). Penalty on CLE-9-G.Delpit, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on TB-78-T.Wirfs, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Play 1335 (10:51) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 45 for -1 yards (97-D.Barnett, 5-Q.Williams). Penalty on CLE-9-G.Delpit, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on TB-78-T.Wirfs, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
Q210:21 (10:21) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 45 for 0 yards (33-R.Hickman). Play 1368 (10:21) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 45 for 0 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Q209:49 (9:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback. Play 1388 (9:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.
Q209:40 (9:40) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 21 for 1 yard (3-R.Bain; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on CLE-86-B.Whiteheart, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20 - No Play. Play 1406 (9:40) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 21 for 1 yard (3-R.Bain; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on CLE-86-B.Whiteheart, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20 - No Play.
Q209:21 (9:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CLE 12 for 2 yards (91-A.Robinson; 34-A.Anzalone). Play 1446 (9:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CLE 12 for 2 yards (91-A.Robinson; 34-A.Anzalone).
Q208:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 5 for -7 yards (91-A.Robinson). Play 1468 (8:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 5 for -7 yards (91-A.Robinson).
Q208:02 (8:02) 23-R.Sanders right guard to CLE 8 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Play 1488 (8:02) 23-R.Sanders right guard to CLE 8 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
Q207:19 (7:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to TB 35, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 44 for 9 yards (40-N.Watson). Play 1510 (7:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to TB 35, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 44 for 9 yards (40-N.Watson).
Q207:08 (7:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell pushed ob at TB 46 for 2 yards (26-M.Harden; 5-Q.Williams). Play 1536 (7:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell pushed ob at TB 46 for 2 yards (26-M.Harden; 5-Q.Williams).
Q206:30 (6:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 49 for 3 yards (21-D.Ward). FUMBLES (21-D.Ward), and recovers at TB 49. Cleveland challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 1573 (6:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 49 for 3 yards (21-D.Ward). FUMBLES (21-D.Ward), and recovers at TB 49. Cleveland challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q205:51 (5:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to CLE 39 for 12 yards (5-Q.Williams). PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play. Play 1665 (5:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to CLE 39 for 12 yards (5-Q.Williams). PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
Q205:18 Timeout #1 by TB at 05:18. Play 1713 Timeout #1 by TB at 05:18.
Q205:18 (5:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 33 for -6 yards (94-M.Graham). Play 1701 (5:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 33 for -6 yards (94-M.Graham).
Q204:48 (4:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to CLE 25, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. Play 1728 (4:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to CLE 25, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
Q204:41 (4:41) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end to CLE 28 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 1748 (4:41) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end to CLE 28 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q204:07 (4:07) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to CLE 28 for no gain (22-K.Scott). Play 1770 (4:07) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to CLE 28 for no gain (22-K.Scott).
Q203:25 (3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 34 for 6 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 1792 (3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 34 for 6 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q202:50 (2:50) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain (95-E.Roberts). Play 1817 (2:50) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain (95-E.Roberts).
Q202:45 (2:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CLE 33 for 1 yard (57-I.McGuire). Play 1839 (2:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CLE 33 for 1 yard (57-I.McGuire).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka ran ob at CLE 26 for 7 yards. Play 1868 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka ran ob at CLE 26 for 7 yards.
Q201:56 (1:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right tackle to CLE 22 for 4 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 1905 (1:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right tackle to CLE 22 for 4 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q201:19 (1:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to CLE 17 for 5 yards (54-S.Williams). Play 1927 (1:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to CLE 17 for 5 yards (54-S.Williams).
Q200:41 (:41) 1-K.Gainwell left end to CLE 11 for 6 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman). Play 1952 (:41) 1-K.Gainwell left end to CLE 11 for 6 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman).
Q200:34 Timeout #2 by TB at 00:34. Play 1986 Timeout #2 by TB at 00:34.
Q200:34 (:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to CLE 13 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse). Play 1974 (:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to CLE 13 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).
Q200:25 Timeout #3 by TB at 00:25. Play 2018 Timeout #3 by TB at 00:25.
Q200:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right. Play 2006 (:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right.
Q200:19 Timeout #2 by CLE at 00:19. Play 2048 Timeout #2 by CLE at 00:19.
Q200:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Johnson. Play 2036 (:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Johnson.
Q200:15 (:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 2066 (:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q200:12 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 64 yards from TB 35 to CLE 1. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 25 for 24 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 2086 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 64 yards from TB 35 to CLE 1. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 25 for 24 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q200:07 (:07) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 24 for -1 yards. Play 2109 (:07) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 24 for -1 yards.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2131 Q315:00 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35. Play 2151 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35.
Q315:00 (15:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at CLE 41 for 24 yards (20-N.Igbinoghene). Play 2173 (15:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at CLE 41 for 24 yards (20-N.Igbinoghene).
Q314:25 (14:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to CLE 27 for 14 yards (5-Q.Williams). Play 2203 (14:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to CLE 27 for 14 yards (5-Q.Williams).
Q313:41 (13:41) 7-B.Irving right guard to CLE 27 for no gain (94-M.Graham; 96-M.Collins). Play 2225 (13:41) 7-B.Irving right guard to CLE 27 for no gain (94-M.Graham; 96-M.Collins).
Q313:00 (13:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to CLE 18 for 9 yards (57-I.McGuire). ** Injury Update: CLE-7-T.Campbell has returned to the game. Play 2247 (13:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to CLE 18 for 9 yards (57-I.McGuire). ** Injury Update: CLE-7-T.Campbell has returned to the game.
Q312:21 (12:21) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to CLE 15 for 3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 2272 (12:21) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to CLE 15 for 3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q311:42 (11:42) 7-B.Irving right end to CLE 11 for 4 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 2294 (11:42) 7-B.Irving right end to CLE 11 for 4 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q311:04 (11:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to CLE 14 for -3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 2319 (11:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving to CLE 14 for -3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q310:20 (10:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle pushed ob at CLE 5 for 9 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 2344 (10:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle pushed ob at CLE 5 for 9 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q309:39 (9:39) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2371 (9:39) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q309:33 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 2397 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q309:33 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to CLE 0. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 26 for 26 yards (38-K.Knowles; 45-J.Trotter). Play 2412 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to CLE 0. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 26 for 26 yards (38-K.Knowles; 45-J.Trotter).
Q309:28 (9:28) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 27 for 1 yard (45-J.Trotter; 50-V.Vea). Play 2442 (9:28) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 27 for 1 yard (45-J.Trotter; 50-V.Vea).
Q308:51 (8:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 33 for 6 yards (21-B.Morrison; 0-Y.Diaby). Play 2464 (8:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 33 for 6 yards (21-B.Morrison; 0-Y.Diaby).
Q308:12 Timeout #1 by CLE at 08:12. Play 2501 Timeout #1 by CLE at 08:12.
Q308:12 (8:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end to CLE 41 for 8 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 2489 (8:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end to CLE 41 for 8 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q307:32 (7:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to TB 44 for 15 yards (27-Z.McCollum) [31-A.Winfield]. Play 2518 (7:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to TB 44 for 15 yards (27-Z.McCollum) [31-A.Winfield].
Q306:55 (6:55) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to TB 39 for 5 yards (8-S.Dennis; 45-J.Trotter). Play 2548 (6:55) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to TB 39 for 5 yards (8-S.Dennis; 45-J.Trotter).
Q306:15 (6:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at TB 30 for 9 yards (21-B.Morrison). Play 2570 (6:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at TB 30 for 9 yards (21-B.Morrison).
Q305:41 (5:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 0-I.Bond pushed ob at TB 20 for 10 yards (21-B.Morrison). Play 2600 (5:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 0-I.Bond pushed ob at TB 20 for 10 yards (21-B.Morrison).
Q305:10 (5:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to TB 14 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 2630 (5:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to TB 14 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q304:36 (4:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to TB 16 for -2 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 2655 (4:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to TB 16 for -2 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q303:54 (3:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Boston (21-B.Morrison). Play 2685 (3:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Boston (21-B.Morrison).
Q303:48 (3:48) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 2720 (3:48) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q303:45 25-A.Szmyt kicks 66 yards from CLE 35 to TB -1. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 29 for 30 yards (59-W.Reid). Play 2740 25-A.Szmyt kicks 66 yards from CLE 35 to TB -1. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 29 for 30 yards (59-W.Reid).
Q303:39 (3:39) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton. Tampa Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 42 for 13 yards (20-N.Igbinoghene). Play 2770 (3:39) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton. Tampa Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 42 for 13 yards (20-N.Igbinoghene).
Q303:28 (3:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 37 for -5 yards (57-I.McGuire). Play 2793 (3:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 37 for -5 yards (57-I.McGuire).
Q302:49 (2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 2-E.Egbuka. Play 2862 (2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 2-E.Egbuka.
Q302:43 (2:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 15-T.Johnson. Play 2885 (2:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 15-T.Johnson.
Q302:36 (2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CLE 17, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. Play 2908 (2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CLE 17, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
Q302:29 (2:29) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 30 for 13 yards (31-A.Winfield). Play 2928 (2:29) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 30 for 13 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q301:43 (1:43) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 86-B.Whiteheart. Play 2960 (1:43) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 86-B.Whiteheart.
Q301:37 (1:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 38-J.McLaughlin. PENALTY on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 30 - No Play. Play 2983 (1:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 38-J.McLaughlin. PENALTY on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 30 - No Play.
Q301:33 (1:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 12-D.Boston for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3017 (1:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 12-D.Boston for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q301:23 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 3043 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q301:23 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to TB 0. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 29 yards (31-D.McMillon). Play 3058 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to TB 0. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 29 yards (31-D.McMillon).
Q301:17 (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 30 for 1 yard (5-Q.Williams). Play 3081 (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 30 for 1 yard (5-Q.Williams).
Q300:36 (:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 31 for 1 yard (97-D.Barnett). Play 3103 (:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 31 for 1 yard (97-D.Barnett).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3125 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst. Play 3145 (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst.
Q414:55 (14:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 26, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. Play 3168 (14:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 26, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
Q414:48 (14:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins pushed ob at CLE 39 for 13 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 3187 (14:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins pushed ob at CLE 39 for 13 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q414:20 (14:20) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 36 for -3 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 3217 (14:20) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 36 for -3 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q413:37 (13:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy. Play 3239 (13:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy.
Q413:33 (13:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end pushed ob at CLE 41 for 5 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Play 3262 (13:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end pushed ob at CLE 41 for 5 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
Q412:57 (12:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson. Play 3289 (12:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.
Q412:51 (12:51) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 15-T.Johnson. Play 3309 (12:51) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 15-T.Johnson.
Q412:44 (12:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 30 for 14 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 3344 (12:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 30 for 14 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q412:00 (12:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson to CLE 21 for 49 yards (7-T.Campbell). Play 3369 (12:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson to CLE 21 for 49 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q411:14 (11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at CLE 17 for 4 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 3394 (11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at CLE 17 for 4 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q410:49 (10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to CLE 13 for 4 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 3424 (10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to CLE 13 for 4 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q410:08 (10:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst (26-M.Harden) [8-J.Verse]. CLE-7-T.Campbell was injured during the play. Play 3449 (10:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst (26-M.Harden) [8-J.Verse]. CLE-7-T.Campbell was injured during the play.
Q410:01 (10:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 3472 (10:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q409:58 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 58 yards from TB 35 to CLE 7. 11-M.Corley to CLE 32 for 25 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 3502 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 58 yards from TB 35 to CLE 7. 11-M.Corley to CLE 32 for 25 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q409:52 (9:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 35 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 3525 (9:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 35 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q409:16 (9:16) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right tackle to CLE 38 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 3550 (9:16) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right tackle to CLE 38 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q408:40 (8:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to CLE 44 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 3572 (8:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to CLE 44 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q408:18 (8:18) (No Huddle) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to CLE 46 for 2 yards (56-R.Nunez-Roches). Penalty on CLE-77-Z.Johnson, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at CLE 44 - No Play. Penalty on TB, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, offsetting. Penalty on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Defensive Offside, offsetting. Play 3594 (8:18) (No Huddle) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to CLE 46 for 2 yards (56-R.Nunez-Roches). Penalty on CLE-77-Z.Johnson, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at CLE 44 - No Play. Penalty on TB, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, offsetting. Penalty on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Defensive Offside, offsetting.
Q408:03 (8:03) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 49 for 5 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 56-R.Nunez-Roches). Play 3640 (8:03) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 49 for 5 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 56-R.Nunez-Roches).
Q407:24 (7:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins ran ob at TB 49 for 2 yards. Play 3665 (7:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins ran ob at TB 49 for 2 yards.
Q406:48 (6:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at TB 40 for 9 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 3695 (6:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at TB 40 for 9 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q406:22 (6:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to TB 32 for 8 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 3725 (6:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to TB 32 for 8 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q405:36 (5:36) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders up the middle to TB 31 for 1 yard (0-Y.Diaby; 23-T.Smith). Play 3750 (5:36) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders up the middle to TB 31 for 1 yard (0-Y.Diaby; 23-T.Smith).
Q404:53 Timeout #2 by CLE at 04:53. Play 3784 Timeout #2 by CLE at 04:53.
Q404:53 (4:53) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 44-H.Fannin to TB 25 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter; 91-A.Robinson). Play 3772 (4:53) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 44-H.Fannin to TB 25 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter; 91-A.Robinson).
Q404:07 (4:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 38-J.McLaughlin (0-Y.Diaby). Play 3804 (4:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 38-J.McLaughlin (0-Y.Diaby).
Q404:03 (4:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston pushed ob at TB 17 for 8 yards (21-B.Morrison). Play 3827 (4:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston pushed ob at TB 17 for 8 yards (21-B.Morrison).
Q403:57 (3:57) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 86-B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3857 (3:57) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 86-B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:51 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 3888 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q403:51 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to TB 1. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 49 for 48 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 3903 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to TB 1. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 49 for 48 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q403:44 (3:44) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CLE 47 for 4 yards (5-Q.Williams). CLE-33-R.Hickman was injured during the play. Play 3931 (3:44) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CLE 47 for 4 yards (5-Q.Williams). CLE-33-R.Hickman was injured during the play.
Q403:18 (3:18) 7-B.Irving right guard to CLE 42 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 57-I.McGuire). Play 3956 (3:18) 7-B.Irving right guard to CLE 42 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 57-I.McGuire).
Q402:37 (2:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at CLE 34 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden). Play 3985 (2:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at CLE 34 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden).
Q402:33 (2:33) 7-B.Irving up the middle to CLE 28 for 6 yards (94-M.Graham; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 4015 (2:33) 7-B.Irving up the middle to CLE 28 for 6 yards (94-M.Graham; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q4Clock unavailable The game has been suspended. Lightning in the area. Play 4040 The game has been suspended. Lightning in the area.
Q4Clock unavailable The game has resumed. Play 4068 Q402:00 (2:00) 7-B.Irving up the middle to CLE 25 for 3 yards (96-M.Collins). ** Injury Update: CLE-33-R.Hickman has returned to the game. Play 4084 (2:00) 7-B.Irving up the middle to CLE 25 for 3 yards (96-M.Collins). ** Injury Update: CLE-33-R.Hickman has returned to the game.
Q401:23 (1:23) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CLE 19 for 6 yards (29-M.Blackmon). Play 4106 (1:23) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CLE 19 for 6 yards (29-M.Blackmon).
Q400:51 (:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to CLE 13 for 6 yards (29-M.Blackmon). Play 4131 (:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to CLE 13 for 6 yards (29-M.Blackmon).
Q400:45 Timeout #1 by TB at 00:45. Play 4168 Timeout #1 by TB at 00:45.
Q400:45 (:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst. PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 13 - No Play. Play 4156 (:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst. PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 13 - No Play.
Q400:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.Hurst (29-M.Blackmon). Play 4197 (:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.Hurst (29-M.Blackmon).
Q400:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLE 20 for 3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 4220 (:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLE 20 for 3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q400:22 Timeout #2 by TB at 00:22. Play 4254 Timeout #2 by TB at 00:22.
Q400:22 Timeout #3 by CLE at 00:22. Play 4261 Timeout #3 by CLE at 00:22.
Q400:22 (:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka. Play 4242 (:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.
Q400:18 (:18) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 19 for -1 yards. Play 4279 (:18) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 19 for -1 yards.
Roof
outdoors
Game seconds remaining 3149
Half seconds remaining 1349
Quarter seconds remaining 449
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB 1.16 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3149
Half seconds remaining 1349
Quarter seconds remaining 449
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3149
Half seconds remaining 1349
Quarter seconds remaining 449
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q111:16 Kick · TB (11:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB 2.3 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 6.627166084650219
Yardline 100 41
Elapsed share 0.06222222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3376
Half seconds remaining 1576
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 676
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8150775304741447 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81508/0.79205/0.80403 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 1.94 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q113:16 Penalty · TB (13:16) PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at TB 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB 0.59 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 5
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB 0.5 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 5
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q214:18 Penalty · CLE (14:18) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at TB 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB 0.06 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 14
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2658
Half seconds remaining 858
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 19
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2658
Half seconds remaining 858
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB -0.14 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 14
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2658
Half seconds remaining 858
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 19
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2658
Half seconds remaining 858
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:34 Fourth down · CLE (2:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to TB 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 3.710539465753289
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.2072222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2854
Half seconds remaining 1054
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 154
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1598297128946982 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13897/ NA/0.15983 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:02 Kick · CLE (14:02) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 2.931815099330838
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.2661111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2642
Half seconds remaining 842
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 842
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2067349912885816 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17591/0.20673/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE 0.98 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q209:49 Fourth down · TB (9:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 2.213357532105618
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.3363888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2389
Half seconds remaining 589
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 589
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7436181353751137 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73346/ NA/0.74362 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:48 Fourth down · TB (4:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to CLE 25, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 21
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 1.584178796334985
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.42
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2088
Half seconds remaining 288
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 288
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7305452117403014 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67902/ NA/0.73055 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:50 Fourth down · CLE (2:50) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain (95-E.Roberts). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 1.38951539878102
Yardline 100 66
Elapsed share 0.4527777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1970
Half seconds remaining 170
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 170
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2641033292568167 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26410/ NA/0.23619 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:15 Kick · TB (:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 1.169683068116646
Yardline 100 13
Elapsed share 0.4958333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1815
Half seconds remaining 15
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 0
Quarter seconds remaining 15
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7943868725345717 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72575/0.79439/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 1.94 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q303:48 Kick · CLE (3:48) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 0.545201131830576
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.6866666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1128
Half seconds remaining 1128
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 228
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.08470912012042442 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08230/0.08471/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE 0.98 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q302:36 Fourth down · TB (2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CLE 17, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 0.5032840768612997
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.7066666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1056
Half seconds remaining 1056
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 156
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8816331286114677 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84794/ NA/0.88163 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 23 recorded events Q414:55 Fourth down · TB (14:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 26, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 0.4208455437545807
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.7513888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 895
Half seconds remaining 895
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 895
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6185825939392099 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59221/ NA/0.61858 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:57 Fourth down · CLE (12:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 0.3691321742900716
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.7841666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q410:01 Kick · TB (10:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 0.3035660517476297
Yardline 100 13
Elapsed share 0.8330555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q400:22 Fourth down · TB (:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 0.1595354072987633
Yardline 100 20
Elapsed share 0.9938888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4 Q113:36 Fourth down · CLE (13:36) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 38 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter; 31-A.Winfield). Penalty on CLE-79-D.Jones, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:28 Penalty · CLE (13:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 5 yards (54-S.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 21. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:17 Kick · CLE (7:17) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 1.62 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 5.081577368744372
Yardline 100 32
Elapsed share 0.1286111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q104:06 Kick · TB (4:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB 1.72 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team TB
Away total 16.5
Home total 25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 8.5
Spread time 4.10990328593913
Yardline 100 27
Elapsed share 0.1816666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q101:48 Penalty · TB (1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to TB 31 for 14 yards (26-M.Harden). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TB 31. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:09 Penalty · CLE (1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins pushed ob at TB 24 for 4 yards (21-B.Morrison). PENALTY on TB-34-A.Anzalone, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at TB 24. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:57 Penalty · CLE (:57) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to TB 6 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 11. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:44 Penalty · TB (12:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 40 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman). PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:51 Fourth down · TB (10:51) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 45 for -1 yards (97-D.Barnett, 5-Q.Williams). Penalty on CLE-9-G.Delpit, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on TB-78-T.Wirfs, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:40 Penalty · CLE (9:40) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 21 for 1 yard (3-R.Bain; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on CLE-86-B.Whiteheart, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:19 Fourth down · CLE (7:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to TB 35, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 44 for 9 yards (40-N.Watson). + Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:30 Fumble · TB (6:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 49 for 3 yards (21-D.Ward). FUMBLES (21-D.Ward), and recovers at TB 49. Cleveland challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) + Fumble recoveries above expectation TB 0.66 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE -0.66 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:51 Penalty · TB (5:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to CLE 39 for 12 yards (5-Q.Williams). PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:33 Kick · TB 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Extra point points above expectation TB 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:37 Penalty · CLE (1:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 38-J.McLaughlin. PENALTY on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:23 Kick · CLE 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Extra point points above expectation CLE 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q408:18 Fourth down · CLE (8:18) (No Huddle) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to CLE 46 for 2 yards (56-R.Nunez-Roches). Penalty on CLE-77-Z.Johnson, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at CLE 44 - No Play. Penalty on TB, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, offsetting. Penalty on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Defensive Offside, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:51 Kick · CLE 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Extra point points above expectation CLE 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q400:45 Penalty · TB (:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst. PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 1:14 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 ea490f8d700671501fa46110f133477cb3451052c54a63de46d1aee816ddf9e7
Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v2 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
Analysis input hash: 5f0432b2a00866898ee6fceee886c6f04b55e1bbe05cde76477949b8b8ec1abd
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Sep 22, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 21, 2026, 9:44 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 777
Half seconds remaining 777
Quarter seconds remaining 777
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3304717466704256 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32071/ NA/0.33047 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 601
Half seconds remaining 601
Quarter seconds remaining 601
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.736179951698964 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71311/0.73618/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 1.94 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Quarter seconds remaining 22
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1598743030760159 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15987/0.00000/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-3
Game seconds remaining 3137
Half seconds remaining 1337
Quarter seconds remaining 437
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.192315430824073 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19232/0.17612/0.16268 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE 0.98 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 2946
Half seconds remaining 1146
Quarter seconds remaining 246
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8139103888557727 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81391/0.79674/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 1.94 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled