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Hmm 3 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Repeated defensive penalties extended one drive.
Los Angeles Chargers received 2 first downs from defensive penalties on third or fourth down during one drive. Las Vegas Raiders gained 305 yards on offense. 6 penalties cost them 42 yards. How this rating was calculated This saved report uses the earlier rating rules. Open the latest report for the current calculation.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Los Angeles Chargers · Drive extending penalties LAC received 2 first downs from LV penalties on third or fourth down during drive 21. Review these plays together; this does not establish that any call was wrong.
Los Angeles Chargers · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Los Angeles Chargers · Opponent penalties Opponent LV was charged 6 penalties for 42 yards.
Las Vegas Raiders · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Las Vegas Raiders · Opponent penalties Opponent LAC was charged 8 penalties for 45 yards.
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Los Angeles Chargers chance to win during the game 149 preplay estimates across 177 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 28 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence 0.57 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
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Notable plays 3 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 03:52 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 3750 (3:52) (Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LV awarded LAC a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. 2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on LAC drive 21; review the sequence together. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 17.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 05:37 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 3594 (5:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 9-T.Harris. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 31 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LV awarded LAC a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. 2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on LAC drive 21; review the sequence together. Estimated chance to win moved 5.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 13:36 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 177 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 177 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to LAC 4. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 32 for 28 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). Play 39 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to LAC 4. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 32 for 28 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).
Q114:54 (14:54) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 35 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn; 97-T.Hemingway). Play 62 (14:54) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 35 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn; 97-T.Hemingway).
Q114:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston ran ob at LAC 42 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 84 (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston ran ob at LAC 42 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q113:44 (13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-D.Njoku pushed ob at LV 49 for 9 yards (7-Q.Walker). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 41 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q405:37 Penalty · LAC (5:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 9-T.Harris. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC 12.11 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 334
Half seconds remaining 334
Quarter seconds remaining 334
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 21, 2026, 7:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5049a63cbdab8208e08ab7850fde11803d1d94ec412b3376b7c055b2f376d217nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 21, 2026, 8:58 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 17356223f0da917661cfe50c8db50e4bed2d4a4dcab3172fd209647f112d5729nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0cd1833456702b6a5d821fbb0a12ba1329b5fb27c0305df65f7eaaa0f75d4af7nflverse-team-stats Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v2
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost; overtime WP is omitted. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 149 model estimates across 177 recorded game entries.
28 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (177 entries) Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence -0.25 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence -0.01 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence 2.77 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence 0.55 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence 2.15 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence 0.55 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence 12.11 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence 2.76 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence -3.46 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence -0.6 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
LAC Fourth down decision cost 3.18 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71080/0.67902/0.69251 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64642/ NA/0.66106 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28267/ NA/0.28384 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45374/0.40951/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.34033/ NA/0.37411 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59319/ NA/0.59497 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37349/0.41905/0.36832 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37194/ NA/0.40244 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24680/ NA/0.21001 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 2.11 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42813/ NA/0.40707 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53818/0.51154/0.53968 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 7.02 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39675/ NA/0.32657 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 6.99 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58680/ NA/0.51692 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 1.23 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98574/0.98463/0.97339 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
LAC Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.43 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
LV Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.43 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
LAC Field goal points above expectation -1.9 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LV Field goal points above expectation 1.18 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LAC Extra point points above expectation 0.06 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
LV Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 11th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
LAC Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 177 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
LV Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 177 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
LAC Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.71 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.7 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.37 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.73 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.82 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.46 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.5 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
· Play 3102
(13:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 49 for 4 yards (22-G.Smith). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LAC awarded LV a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 7.6 percentage points across this play.
Play 114
(13:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-D.Njoku pushed ob at LV 49 for 9 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q113:16 (13:16) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 47 for 2 yards (94-F.Fatukasi; 5-E.Stokes). Play 144 (13:16) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 47 for 2 yards (94-F.Fatukasi; 5-E.Stokes).
Q112:38 (12:38) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Thompson [95-K.Paye]. Play 166 (12:38) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Thompson [95-K.Paye].
Q112:33 (12:33) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 40 for 7 yards (7-Q.Walker; 31-T.Stukes). Play 201 (12:33) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 40 for 7 yards (7-Q.Walker; 31-T.Stukes).
Q111:49 (11:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Thompson [98-M.Crosby]. Play 223 (11:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Thompson [98-M.Crosby].
Q111:44 (11:44) 11-C.Dicker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 246 (11:44) 11-C.Dicker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q111:39 (11:39) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to 50 for 2 yards (0-D.Henley; 94-D.Tomlinson). Play 267 (11:39) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to 50 for 2 yards (0-D.Henley; 94-D.Tomlinson).
Q111:07 (11:07) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 49 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on LV-70-S.Burford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. Play 296 (11:07) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 49 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on LV-70-S.Burford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q110:49 (10:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 48 for 8 yards (92-J.Eboigbe; 90-A.Mesidor). Play 329 (10:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 48 for 8 yards (92-J.Eboigbe; 90-A.Mesidor).
Q110:04 (10:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 37 for 15 yards (23-T.Jefferson). Play 354 (10:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 37 for 15 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q109:39 (9:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LAC 32 for 5 yards (3-D.James). Play 379 (9:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LAC 32 for 5 yards (3-D.James).
Q109:05 (9:05) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left intended for 1-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Hart at LAC 15. 20-C.Hart to LAC 17 for 2 yards (2-A.Jeanty). Play 404 (9:05) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left intended for 1-T.Tucker INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Hart at LAC 15. 20-C.Hart to LAC 17 for 2 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
Q108:57 (8:57) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 15 for -2 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 431 (8:57) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 15 for -2 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q108:12 (8:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to LAC 17 for 2 yards (96-J.Laulu). Play 460 (8:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to LAC 17 for 2 yards (96-J.Laulu).
Q107:29 (7:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 89-B.Thompson to LAC 30 for 13 yards (3-T.Johnson). FUMBLES (3-T.Johnson), ball out of bounds at LAC 30. Play 482 (7:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 89-B.Thompson to LAC 30 for 13 yards (3-T.Johnson). FUMBLES (3-T.Johnson), ball out of bounds at LAC 30.
Q106:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 33 for 3 yards (51-M.Koonce). Play 517 (6:56) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 33 for 3 yards (51-M.Koonce).
Q106:27 (6:27) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 32 for -1 yards (sack split by 51-M.Koonce and 17-N.Dean). Play 539 (6:27) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 32 for -1 yards (sack split by 51-M.Koonce and 17-N.Dean).
Q105:45 (5:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 1-Q.Johnston (97-T.Hemingway). Play 559 (5:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 1-Q.Johnston (97-T.Hemingway).
Q105:41 (5:41) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-87-G.Jennings. Play 582 (5:41) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-87-G.Jennings.
Q105:29 (5:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 20 for -1 yards (sack split by 90-A.Mesidor and 94-D.Tomlinson). Play 602 (5:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 20 for -1 yards (sack split by 90-A.Mesidor and 94-D.Tomlinson).
Q104:55 (4:55) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 28 for 8 yards (3-D.James). Play 634 (4:55) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 28 for 8 yards (3-D.James).
Q104:14 (4:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty. Play 656 (4:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty.
Q104:10 (4:10) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. Play 684 (4:10) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q104:04 (4:04) 34-K.Mitchell right tackle to LAC 22 for 5 yards (95-K.Paye; 44-T.Eichenberg). Play 704 (4:04) 34-K.Mitchell right tackle to LAC 22 for 5 yards (95-K.Paye; 44-T.Eichenberg).
Q103:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 83-D.Njoku [3-T.Johnson]. Play 733 (3:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 83-D.Njoku [3-T.Johnson].
Q103:26 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left intended for 83-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses at LV 48. 35-H.Masses to LAC 23 for 29 yards (28-K.Vidal). Play 756 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left intended for 83-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses at LV 48. 35-H.Masses to LAC 23 for 29 yards (28-K.Vidal).
Q103:14 (3:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Bech to LAC 7 for 16 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), and recovers at LAC 3. 18-J.Bech ran ob at LAC 3 for no gain. Play 783 (3:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Bech to LAC 7 for 16 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), and recovers at LAC 3. 18-J.Bech ran ob at LAC 3 for no gain.
Q102:39 (2:39) 2-A.Jeanty left end to LAC 5 for -2 yards (26-D.Jackson, 52-K.Mack). Play 813 (2:39) 2-A.Jeanty left end to LAC 5 for -2 yards (26-D.Jackson, 52-K.Mack).
Q101:57 (1:57) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 2 for 3 yards (92-J.Eboigbe; 0-D.Henley). Play 835 (1:57) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 2 for 3 yards (92-J.Eboigbe; 0-D.Henley).
Q101:19 (1:19) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LAC 1 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson). Play 857 (1:19) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LAC 1 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson).
Q100:40 (:40) Direct snap to 2-A.Jeanty. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (53-D.Phillips; 23-T.Jefferson). Play 889 (:40) Direct snap to 2-A.Jeanty. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (53-D.Phillips; 23-T.Jefferson).
Q100:35 (:35) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 3 for 2 yards (98-M.Crosby). Play 913 (:35) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 3 for 2 yards (98-M.Crosby).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 949 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 6 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker). LAC-83-D.Njoku was injured during the play. Play 989 (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 6 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker). LAC-83-D.Njoku was injured during the play.
Q214:25 (14:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 3 yards, enforced at LAC 6 - No Play. Play 1011 (14:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 3 yards, enforced at LAC 6 - No Play.
Q214:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 1 yard, enforced at LAC 3 - No Play. Play 1045 (14:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 1 yard, enforced at LAC 3 - No Play.
Q214:01 (14:01) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 5 for 3 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 95-K.Paye). Play 1069 (14:01) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 5 for 3 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 95-K.Paye).
Q213:21 (13:21) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 49, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds. Play 1091 (13:21) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 49, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
Q213:13 (13:13) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LAC 48 for 3 yards (99-J.Caldwell; 48-B.Dupree). Play 1110 (13:13) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LAC 48 for 3 yards (99-J.Caldwell; 48-B.Dupree).
Q212:33 (12:33) PENALTY on LV-87-M.Mayer, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 48 - No Play. Play 1132 (12:33) PENALTY on LV-87-M.Mayer, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 48 - No Play.
Q212:19 (12:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 40 for 13 yards (20-C.Hart). Play 1156 (12:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 40 for 13 yards (20-C.Hart).
Q211:57 (11:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-T.Tucker for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1186 (11:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-T.Tucker for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q211:51 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 1212 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q211:51 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to LAC 5. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 31 for 26 yards (31-T.Stukes). Play 1227 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to LAC 5. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 31 for 26 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Q211:46 (11:46) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 36 for 5 yards (7-Q.Walker; 20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 1257 (11:46) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 36 for 5 yards (7-Q.Walker; 20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q211:09 (11:09) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 43 for 7 yards (28-J.McCoy; 11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on LAC-74-K.Awosika, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 36 - No Play. Play 1279 (11:09) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 43 for 7 yards (28-J.McCoy; 11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on LAC-74-K.Awosika, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 36 - No Play.
Q210:55 (10:55) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 30 for 4 yards (28-J.McCoy). Play 1312 (10:55) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 30 for 4 yards (28-J.McCoy).
Q210:11 (10:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 49 for 19 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 1334 (10:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 49 for 19 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q209:32 (9:32) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right end to LAC 49 for no gain (5-E.Stokes; 7-Q.Walker). Play 1364 (9:32) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right end to LAC 49 for no gain (5-E.Stokes; 7-Q.Walker).
Q208:53 (8:53) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 8-O.Hampton ran ob at LV 33 for 18 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 1386 (8:53) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 8-O.Hampton ran ob at LV 33 for 18 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q208:13 Timeout #1 by LAC at 08:13. Play 1428 Timeout #1 by LAC at 08:13.
Q208:13 (8:13) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 26 for 7 yards (28-J.McCoy; 31-T.Stukes). ** Injury Update: LV-31-T.Stukes has returned to the game. Play 1435 (8:13) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 26 for 7 yards (28-J.McCoy; 31-T.Stukes). ** Injury Update: LV-31-T.Stukes has returned to the game.
Q207:34 (7:34) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 22 for 4 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 1457 (7:34) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 22 for 4 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q206:57 (6:57) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end pushed ob at LV 11 for 11 yards (31-T.Stukes). Play 1482 (6:57) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end pushed ob at LV 11 for 11 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Q206:26 (6:26) 8-O.Hampton left end to LV 1 for 10 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 1519 (6:26) 8-O.Hampton left end to LV 1 for 10 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q205:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1541 (5:30) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q205:26 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 1564 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q205:26 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35. Play 1579 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35.
Q205:26 (5:26) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 37 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson; 99-J.Caldwell). ** Injury Update: LAC-3-D.James has returned to the game. Play 1606 (5:26) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 37 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson; 99-J.Caldwell). ** Injury Update: LAC-3-D.James has returned to the game.
Q204:48 (4:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to LV 47 for 10 yards (53-D.Phillips). Play 1628 (4:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to LV 47 for 10 yards (53-D.Phillips).
Q204:13 (4:13) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LAC 46 for 7 yards (53-D.Phillips; 20-C.Hart). PENALTY on LV-71-D.Glaze, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play. Play 1653 (4:13) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LAC 46 for 7 yards (53-D.Phillips; 20-C.Hart). PENALTY on LV-71-D.Glaze, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
Q204:01 (4:01) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 43 for 6 yards (20-C.Hart; 23-T.Jefferson). Play 1689 (4:01) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 43 for 6 yards (20-C.Hart; 23-T.Jefferson).
Q203:22 (3:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Bech to LV 48 for 5 yards (20-C.Hart). Play 1711 (3:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Bech to LV 48 for 5 yards (20-C.Hart).
Q202:40 (2:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 44 for -4 yards (52-K.Mack). Play 1736 (2:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 44 for -4 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q202:01 (2:01) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. Play 1756 (2:01) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q201:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 18 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 1776 (1:53) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 18 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q201:34 (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston. Play 1805 (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston.
Q201:30 (1:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 23 for 5 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 1828 (1:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 23 for 5 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q201:12 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 31 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 1853 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 31 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q200:52 (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 9-T.Harris [97-T.Hemingway]. Play 1878 (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 9-T.Harris [97-T.Hemingway].
Q200:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston [17-N.Dean]. Play 1901 (:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston [17-N.Dean].
Q200:42 (:42) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. Play 1924 (:42) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
Q200:35 (:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 87-M.Mayer (20-C.Hart). Play 1944 (:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 87-M.Mayer (20-C.Hart).
Q200:31 (:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 42 for 42 yards (20-C.Hart) [45-T.Tuipulotu]. Play 1967 (:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 42 for 42 yards (20-C.Hart) [45-T.Tuipulotu].
Q200:24 Timeout #1 by LV at 00:24. Play 2004 Timeout #1 by LV at 00:24.
Q200:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 41 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips; 27-R.Mickens). Play 1992 (:24) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 41 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips; 27-R.Mickens).
Q200:19 Timeout #2 by LV at 00:19. Play 2033 Timeout #2 by LV at 00:19.
Q200:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty. Play 2021 (:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty.
Q200:15 (:15) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 41 for no gain (3-D.James; 92-J.Eboigbe). Play 2051 (:15) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 41 for no gain (3-D.James; 92-J.Eboigbe).
Q200:08 Timeout #2 by LAC at 00:08. Play 2085 Timeout #2 by LAC at 00:08.
Q200:08 (:08) 14-M.Gay 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 2073 (:08) 14-M.Gay 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q200:04 14-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35. Play 2100 14-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35.
Q200:04 (:04) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 48 for 17 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 2117 (:04) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 48 for 17 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2139 Q315:00 11-C.Dicker kicks 62 yards from LAC 35 to LV 3. 23-D.Laube to LV 17 for 14 yards (24-R.Shelley). Play 2159 11-C.Dicker kicks 62 yards from LAC 35 to LV 3. 23-D.Laube to LV 17 for 14 yards (24-R.Shelley).
Q314:55 (14:55) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 9-J.Nailor [93-T.Tart]. Play 2182 (14:55) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 9-J.Nailor [93-T.Tart].
Q314:52 (14:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 18 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips; 26-D.Jackson) [93-T.Tart]. Play 2205 (14:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 18 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips; 26-D.Jackson) [93-T.Tart].
Q314:07 (14:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 1-T.Tucker (22-G.Smith). Play 2230 (14:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 1-T.Tucker (22-G.Smith).
Q314:03 (14:03) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 26, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. Play 2253 (14:03) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 26, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
Q313:56 (13:56) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 31 for 5 yards (11-J.Chinn; 35-H.Masses). Play 2272 (13:56) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 31 for 5 yards (11-J.Chinn; 35-H.Masses).
Q313:22 (13:22) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 37 for 6 yards (7-Q.Walker; 17-N.Dean). Play 2301 (13:22) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 37 for 6 yards (7-Q.Walker; 17-N.Dean).
Q312:43 (12:43) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 39 for 2 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 2328 (12:43) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 39 for 2 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q312:02 (12:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 42 for 3 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 2350 (12:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 42 for 3 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q311:14 (11:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at LV 5 for 53 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 2375 (11:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at LV 5 for 53 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q310:34 (10:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 11, recovered by LAC-34-K.Mitchell at LV 10. Play 2405 (10:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 11, recovered by LAC-34-K.Mitchell at LV 10.
Q309:53 (9:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2437 (9:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q309:49 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 2463 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q309:49 11-C.Dicker kicks 60 yards from LAC 35 to LV 5. 23-D.Laube to LV 26 for 21 yards (24-R.Shelley). Play 2478 11-C.Dicker kicks 60 yards from LAC 35 to LV 5. 23-D.Laube to LV 26 for 21 yards (24-R.Shelley).
Q309:44 (9:44) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 29 for 3 yards (53-D.Phillips). Play 2508 (9:44) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 29 for 3 yards (53-D.Phillips).
Q309:08 (9:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 31 for 2 yards (27-R.Mickens). Play 2530 (9:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 31 for 2 yards (27-R.Mickens).
Q308:24 (8:24) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play. Play 2555 (8:24) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play.
Q308:21 (8:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to LV 35 for 9 yards (26-D.Jackson). Play 2579 (8:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to LV 35 for 9 yards (26-D.Jackson).
Q307:41 (7:41) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 36 for 1 yard (43-T.Dye). Play 2604 (7:41) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 36 for 1 yard (43-T.Dye).
Q307:08 (7:08) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 80-I.Thomas pushed ob at LV 47 for 11 yards (53-D.Phillips). Play 2628 (7:08) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 80-I.Thomas pushed ob at LV 47 for 11 yards (53-D.Phillips).
Q306:33 (6:33) 2-A.Jeanty left end to LAC 44 for 9 yards (27-R.Mickens). Play 2653 (6:33) 2-A.Jeanty left end to LAC 44 for 9 yards (27-R.Mickens).
Q305:58 (5:58) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LAC 40 for 4 yards (52-K.Mack). Play 2675 (5:58) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to LAC 40 for 4 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q305:26 (5:26) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 81-D.Young pushed ob at LAC 13 for 27 yards (4-T.Still; 3-D.James) [48-B.Dupree]. Play 2697 (5:26) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 81-D.Young pushed ob at LAC 13 for 27 yards (4-T.Still; 3-D.James) [48-B.Dupree].
Q304:49 (4:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 9-J.Nailor (26-D.Jackson) [90-A.Mesidor]. Play 2732 (4:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 9-J.Nailor (26-D.Jackson) [90-A.Mesidor].
Q304:40 (4:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LAC 13 for no gain (45-T.Tuipulotu; 94-D.Tomlinson). Play 2760 (4:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LAC 13 for no gain (45-T.Tuipulotu; 94-D.Tomlinson).
Q303:59 (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 82-C.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2782 (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 82-C.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q303:53 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 2808 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q303:53 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to LAC 4. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 23 for 19 yards (50-S.Olubi). Play 2823 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to LAC 4. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 23 for 19 yards (50-S.Olubi).
Q303:49 (3:49) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 31 for 8 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 97-T.Hemingway). Play 2853 (3:49) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 31 for 8 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 97-T.Hemingway).
Q303:09 (3:09) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left tackle to LAC 32 for 1 yard (69-A.Butler; 20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 2878 (3:09) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left tackle to LAC 32 for 1 yard (69-A.Butler; 20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q302:24 (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert Aborted. 66-J.Slaughter FUMBLES at LAC 31, touched at LAC 32, recovered by LAC-10-J.Herbert at LAC 28. Play 2900 (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert Aborted. 66-J.Slaughter FUMBLES at LAC 31, touched at LAC 32, recovered by LAC-10-J.Herbert at LAC 28.
Q301:40 (1:40) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Benson to LV 31 for 16 yards (30-A.Ingold). Play 2927 (1:40) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Benson to LV 31 for 16 yards (30-A.Ingold).
Q301:29 (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 36 for 5 yards (43-T.Dye; 3-D.James). LAC-94-D.Tomlinson was injured during the play. Play 2953 (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 36 for 5 yards (43-T.Dye; 3-D.James). LAC-94-D.Tomlinson was injured during the play.
Q301:02 (1:02) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 35 for -1 yards (93-T.Tart). Play 2985 (1:02) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 35 for -1 yards (93-T.Tart).
Q300:26 (:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 9-J.Nailor to LV 44 for 9 yards (22-G.Smith; 43-T.Dye). Play 3010 (:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 9-J.Nailor to LV 44 for 9 yards (22-G.Smith; 43-T.Dye).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3035 Q415:00 (15:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LAC 49 for 7 yards (43-T.Dye). Play 3055 (15:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to LAC 49 for 7 yards (43-T.Dye).
Q414:21 (14:21) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 47 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). Play 3080 (14:21) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 47 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye).
Q413:36 (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 49 for 4 yards (22-G.Smith). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play. Play 3102 (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 49 for 4 yards (22-G.Smith). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
Q413:25 (13:25) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 4-M.Washington [91-N.Barrett]. Play 3138 (13:25) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 4-M.Washington [91-N.Barrett].
Q413:21 (13:21) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington right tackle to LAC 46 for 2 yards (0-D.Henley; 4-T.Still). Play 3161 (13:21) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington right tackle to LAC 46 for 2 yards (0-D.Henley; 4-T.Still).
Q412:39 (12:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Benson. Play 3183 (12:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Benson.
Q412:34 (12:34) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-25-D.Luter. Play 3206 (12:34) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-25-D.Luter.
Q412:26 (12:26) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 2 for -8 yards (5-E.Stokes). FUMBLES (5-E.Stokes), ball out of bounds at LAC 10. Play 3226 (12:26) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 2 for -8 yards (5-E.Stokes). FUMBLES (5-E.Stokes), ball out of bounds at LAC 10.
Q411:58 (11:58) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 8 for 6 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 3272 (11:58) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 8 for 6 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q411:18 (11:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 20 for 12 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 3294 (11:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 20 for 12 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q410:41 (10:41) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 24 for 4 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on LAC-70-R.Slater, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20 - No Play. Play 3319 (10:41) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 24 for 4 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on LAC-70-R.Slater, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20 - No Play.
Q410:22 (10:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell pushed ob at LAC 25 for 15 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 3352 (10:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell pushed ob at LAC 25 for 15 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q409:52 (9:52) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 28 for 3 yards (44-T.Eichenberg; 17-N.Dean). Play 3382 (9:52) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 28 for 3 yards (44-T.Eichenberg; 17-N.Dean).
Q409:10 (9:10) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 28 for no gain (17-N.Dean). Play 3404 (9:10) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 28 for no gain (17-N.Dean).
Q408:26 (8:26) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-D.Laube. Play 3426 (8:26) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.
Q408:19 (8:19) 8-K.Cousins scrambles left end to LV 21 for 4 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). Play 3451 (8:19) 8-K.Cousins scrambles left end to LV 21 for 4 yards (92-J.Eboigbe).
Q407:41 (7:41) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 26 for 5 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 26-D.Jackson). Play 3480 (7:41) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 26 for 5 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 26-D.Jackson).
Q406:59 (6:59) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty [52-K.Mack]. Play 3502 (6:59) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty [52-K.Mack].
Q406:54 (6:54) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 24, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. Play 3525 (6:54) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 24, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q406:47 (6:47) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 24 for no gain (94-F.Fatukasi; 7-Q.Walker). Play 3545 (6:47) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 24 for no gain (94-F.Fatukasi; 7-Q.Walker).
Q406:12 (6:12) 1-Q.Johnston left end pushed ob at LAC 31 for 7 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 3567 (6:12) 1-Q.Johnston left end pushed ob at LAC 31 for 7 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q405:37 (5:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 9-T.Harris. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 31 - No Play. Play 3594 (5:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 9-T.Harris. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 31 - No Play.
Q405:34 (5:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [96-J.Laulu]. Play 3628 (5:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [96-J.Laulu].
Q405:29 (5:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 37 - No Play. Play 3651 (5:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 37 - No Play.
Q405:29 (5:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 40 for 8 yards (99-T.Booker). Play 3680 (5:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 40 for 8 yards (99-T.Booker).
Q404:49 (4:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 36 for -4 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], recovered by LAC-9-T.Harris at LAC 46. Play 3705 (4:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 36 for -4 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], recovered by LAC-9-T.Harris at LAC 46.
Q403:52 Timeout #1 by LV at 03:52. Play 3762 Timeout #1 by LV at 03:52.
Q403:52 (3:52) (Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play. Play 3750 (3:52) (Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
Q403:52 (3:52) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-11-J.Chinn at LV 41. 11-J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (10-J.Herbert). Play 3781 (3:52) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-11-J.Chinn at LV 41. 11-J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (10-J.Herbert).
Q403:42 (3:42) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 13 for 3 yards (3-D.James; 93-T.Tart). LV-2-A.Jeanty was injured during the play. Play 3819 (3:42) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 13 for 3 yards (3-D.James; 93-T.Tart). LV-2-A.Jeanty was injured during the play.
Q403:09 (3:09) 4-M.Washington right tackle to LAC 11 for 2 yards (23-T.Jefferson). Play 3846 (3:09) 4-M.Washington right tackle to LAC 11 for 2 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q403:03 Timeout #1 by LAC at 03:03. Play 3890 Timeout #1 by LAC at 03:03.
Q403:03 (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3878 (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q402:59 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 3911 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q402:59 14-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35. ** Injury Update: LV-81-D.Young has returned to the game. Play 3926 14-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35. ** Injury Update: LV-81-D.Young has returned to the game.
Q402:59 (2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston to LAC 39 for 4 yards (3-T.Johnson; 20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LAC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play. Play 3943 (2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston to LAC 39 for 4 yards (3-T.Johnson; 20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LAC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play.
Q402:54 (2:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 34 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 3982 (2:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 34 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q402:33 (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston. Play 4007 (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston.
Q402:29 (2:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 12-D.Davis INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses at LAC 48. 35-H.Masses to LAC 48 for no gain (12-D.Davis). Play 4030 (2:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 12-D.Davis INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses at LAC 48. 35-H.Masses to LAC 48 for no gain (12-D.Davis).
Q402:24 (2:24) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 46 for 2 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 3-D.James). ** Injury Update: LV-2-A.Jeanty has returned to the game. Play 4067 (2:24) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 46 for 2 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 3-D.James). ** Injury Update: LV-2-A.Jeanty has returned to the game.
Q402:18 Timeout #2 by LAC at 02:18. Play 4101 Timeout #2 by LAC at 02:18.
Q402:18 (2:18) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 41 for 5 yards (91-N.Barrett). Play 4089 (2:18) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 41 for 5 yards (91-N.Barrett).
Q402:13 Timeout #3 by LAC at 02:13. Play 4133 Timeout #3 by LAC at 02:13.
Q402:13 (2:13) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 40 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips). Play 4121 (2:13) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 40 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips).
Q402:00 Timeout #2 by LV at 02:00. Play 4169 Timeout #2 by LV at 02:00.
Q402:00 (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young. Play 4176 (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young.
Q401:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 9-T.Harris. Play 4196 (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 9-T.Harris.
Q401:46 (1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. Play 4219 (1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
Q401:41 16-J.Scott kicks onside 22 yards from LAC 20 to LAC 42, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker. Play 4253 16-J.Scott kicks onside 22 yards from LAC 20 to LAC 42, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.
Q401:41 (1:41) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 43 for -1 yards. Play 4270 (1:41) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 43 for -1 yards.
Q400:59 (:59) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 44 for -1 yards. Play 4292 (:59) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 44 for -1 yards.
Q400:37 (:37) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 45 for -1 yards. Play 4314 (:37) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 45 for -1 yards.
Down
4
Game seconds remaining 334
Half seconds remaining 334
Quarter seconds remaining 334
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC 2.76 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 334
Half seconds remaining 334
Quarter seconds remaining 334
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 3
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 334
Half seconds remaining 334
Quarter seconds remaining 334
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:26 Fourth down · LAC (8:26) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-D.Laube. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 7.02 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.2088841261967591
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.8594444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 506
Half seconds remaining 506
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 506
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3967450406676447 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39675/ NA/0.32657 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:54 Fourth down · LV (6:54) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 24, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. + Fourth down decision cost LV 6.99 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.1885866260342808
Yardline 100 74
Elapsed share 0.885
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 414
Half seconds remaining 414
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 414
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5868016977678351 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58680/ NA/0.51692 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q405:29 Penalty · LAC (5:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC -3.46 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 15
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 329
Half seconds remaining 329
Quarter seconds remaining 329
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 329
Half seconds remaining 329
Quarter seconds remaining 329
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC -0.6 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 15
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 329
Half seconds remaining 329
Quarter seconds remaining 329
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 329
Half seconds remaining 329
Quarter seconds remaining 329
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q111:44 Kick · LAC (11:44) 11-C.Dicker 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 3.18 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 5.227977014426219
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.05444444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3404
Half seconds remaining 1604
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 704
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7108041366461098 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71080/0.67902/0.69251 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LAC -1.9 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:33 Penalty · LV (12:33) PENALTY on LV-87-M.Mayer, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC 2.77 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 12
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2553
Half seconds remaining 753
Quarter seconds remaining 753
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 7
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2553
Half seconds remaining 753
Quarter seconds remaining 753
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC 0.55 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 12
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2553
Half seconds remaining 753
Quarter seconds remaining 753
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 7
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2553
Half seconds remaining 753
Quarter seconds remaining 753
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q308:24 Penalty · LV (8:24) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC 2.15 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 1404
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 5
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 1404
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC 0.55 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 1404
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 5
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 1404
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q301:40 Fourth down · LAC (1:40) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to LV 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Benson to LV 31 for 16 yards (30-A.Ingold). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 2.11 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.3616469888059783
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.7222222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1000
Half seconds remaining 1000
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 100
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4281296044046083 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42813/ NA/0.40707 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:00 Fourth down · LV (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young. + Fourth down decision cost LV 1.23 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.1360320866579457
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.9666666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 120
Half seconds remaining 120
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 0
Quarter seconds remaining 120
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9857384160677872 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98574/0.98463/0.97339 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:25 Penalty · LAC (14:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 3 yards, enforced at LAC 6 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC 0.57 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 8
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 97
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2665
Half seconds remaining 865
Quarter seconds remaining 865
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 5
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2665
Half seconds remaining 865
Quarter seconds remaining 865
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC -0.25 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 8
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 97
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2665
Half seconds remaining 865
Quarter seconds remaining 865
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 5
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2665
Half seconds remaining 865
Quarter seconds remaining 865
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q105:41 Fourth down · LAC (5:41) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-87-G.Jennings. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 3.492755847713714
Yardline 100 68
Elapsed share 0.1552777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3041
Half seconds remaining 1241
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 341
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6610605272239326 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64642/ NA/0.66106 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:10 Fourth down · LV (4:10) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 3.15686660411013
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.1805555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2950
Half seconds remaining 1150
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 250
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.283843888657336 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28267/ NA/0.28384 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 29 recorded events Q100:40 Fourth down · LV (:40) Direct snap to 2-A.Jeanty. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (53-D.Phillips; 23-T.Jefferson). + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 2.499889726111839
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.2388888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2740
Half seconds remaining 940
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 40
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4537369766633295 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45374/0.40951/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:15 Penalty · LAC (14:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, False Start, 1 yard, enforced at LAC 3 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 9
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 98
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2655
Half seconds remaining 855
Quarter seconds remaining 855
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 8
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 97
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q202:01 Fourth down · LV (2:01) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 1.006266172172827
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.4663888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q200:42 Fourth down · LAC (:42) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to LV 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.9217039923989975
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.4883333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q200:08 Kick · LV (:08) 14-M.Gay 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.8875335689227956
Yardline 100 41
Elapsed share 0.4977777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0 Q314:03 Fourth down · LV (14:03) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 26, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.8256938990301135
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.5158333333333334
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q307:41 Fourth down · LV (7:41) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 36 for 1 yard (43-T.Dye). + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.5401137027847103
Yardline 100 65
Elapsed share 0.6219444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q412:34 Fourth down · LV (12:34) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-25-D.Luter. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Away total 18.5
Home total 25
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 6.5
Spread time 0.2751551811661324
Yardline 100 46
Elapsed share 0.7905555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 18.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q111:07 Penalty · LV (11:07) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 49 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on LV-70-S.Burford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:29 Fumble · LAC (7:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 89-B.Thompson to LAC 30 for 13 yards (3-T.Johnson). FUMBLES (3-T.Johnson), ball out of bounds at LAC 30. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q103:14 Fumble · LV (3:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Bech to LAC 7 for 16 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), and recovers at LAC 3. 18-J.Bech ran ob at LAC 3 for no gain. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.43 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 0.43 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q213:21 Fourth down · LAC (13:21) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 49, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:51 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q211:09 Penalty · LAC (11:09) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 43 for 7 yards (28-J.McCoy; 11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on LAC-74-K.Awosika, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:26 Kick · LAC 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Extra point points above expectation LAC 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q204:13 Penalty · LV (4:13) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LAC 46 for 7 yards (53-D.Phillips; 20-C.Hart). PENALTY on LV-71-D.Glaze, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:34 Fumble · LAC (10:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 11, recovered by LAC-34-K.Mitchell at LV 10. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q309:49 Kick · LAC 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Extra point points above expectation LAC 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q303:53 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q302:24 Fumble · LAC (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert Aborted. 66-J.Slaughter FUMBLES at LAC 31, touched at LAC 32, recovered by LAC-10-J.Herbert at LAC 28. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q413:36 Penalty · LV (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 49 for 4 yards (22-G.Smith). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:26 Fumble · LAC (12:26) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 2 for -8 yards (5-E.Stokes). FUMBLES (5-E.Stokes), ball out of bounds at LAC 10. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q410:41 Penalty · LAC (10:41) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 24 for 4 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on LAC-70-R.Slater, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:49 Fumble · LAC (4:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 36 for -4 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], recovered by LAC-9-T.Harris at LAC 46. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.43 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 0.43 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q403:52 Penalty · LAC (3:52) (Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:52 Fumble · LAC (3:52) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-11-J.Chinn at LV 41. 11-J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (10-J.Herbert). + Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.43 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 0.43 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q402:59 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q402:59 Penalty · LAC (2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston to LAC 39 for 4 yards (3-T.Johnson; 20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LAC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:46 Penalty · LAC (1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on LAC-76-J.Alt, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 4:39 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 ab0c455c4dc1db4bc8de52fe5cabc562f63b376d207265c78d7fbae9ffb4940b
Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v2 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
Analysis input hash: 11d4528ca18e1230e82d7d48c9ce6f4be68ded2b4bc5ba97b29b96063f9f728a
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Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 21, 2026, 10:18 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 2655
Half seconds remaining 855
Quarter seconds remaining 855
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC -0.01 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 9
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 98
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2655
Half seconds remaining 855
Quarter seconds remaining 855
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 8
Away team LV
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 97
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2655
Half seconds remaining 855
Quarter seconds remaining 855
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1921
Half seconds remaining 121
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3741089019395599 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.34033/ NA/0.37411 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1842
Quarter seconds remaining 42
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5949738443671511 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59319/ NA/0.59497 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 1808
Quarter seconds remaining 8
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4190459165324611 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37349/0.41905/0.36832 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV 1.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 1743
Half seconds remaining 1743
Quarter seconds remaining 843
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4024358819846945 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37194/ NA/0.40244 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-4
Game seconds remaining 1361
Half seconds remaining 1361
Quarter seconds remaining 461
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.246800861662518 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24680/ NA/0.21001 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 754
Half seconds remaining 754
Quarter seconds remaining 754
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5396752446557582 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53818/0.51154/0.53968 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled