A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
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Notable plays +
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THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 170
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Retrieved Sep 22, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC License: CC-BY-4.0
Verify this snapshotSHA-256 0cd1833456702b6a5d821fbb0a12ba1329b5fb27c0305df65f7eaaa0f75d4af7Model versions and technical record
About this chart
139 model estimates across 170 recorded game entries.
31 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (170 entries)
Tennessee Titans chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
TENField goal points above expectation0.35 points
Supported
HISTORICAL COMPARISON5th percentile
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
PHIExtra point points above expectation0.12 points
Supported
HISTORICAL COMPARISON37th percentile
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Q110:28(10:28) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to TEN 37 for 1 yard (53-A.Hill). PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 38 - No Play.Play 315
(10:28) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to TEN 37 for 1 yard (53-A.Hill). PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 38 - No Play.
Q106:11(6:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN -2. 37-A.Hooker to PHI 10 for 92 yards (9-M.Lemon).Play 539
(6:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN -2. 37-A.Hooker to PHI 10 for 92 yards (9-M.Lemon).
Q210:58(10:58) 2-T.Spears left tackle to PHI 45 for 4 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on TEN-0-C.Ridley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 45.Play 1103
(10:58) 2-T.Spears left tackle to PHI 45 for 4 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on TEN-0-C.Ridley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 45.
Q204:22(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end ran ob at TEN 31 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 31.Play 1449
(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end ran ob at TEN 31 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 31.
Q202:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right guard to TEN 10 for 2 yards (37-A.Hooker; 7-O.Oladejo). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 12 - No Play.Play 1581
(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right guard to TEN 10 for 2 yards (37-A.Hooker; 7-O.Oladejo). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 12 - No Play.
Q201:45(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 32 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 32 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell). FUMBLES (11-J.Campbell), ball out of bounds at TEN 32. 10-second runoff.Play 1692
(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 32 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 32 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell). FUMBLES (11-J.Campbell), ball out of bounds at TEN 32. 10-second runoff.
Q315:006-J.Slye kicks 35 yards from TEN 35 to PHI 30, short of landing zone. PENALTY on TEN-6-J.Slye, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PHI 40.Play 2057
6-J.Slye kicks 35 yards from TEN 35 to PHI 30, short of landing zone. PENALTY on TEN-6-J.Slye, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PHI 40.
Q315:00(15:00) 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at PHI 41 for 1 yard (21-M.Robinson). ** Injury Update: PHI-26-S.Barkley has returned to the game. PENALTY on PHI-56-T.Steen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.Play 2078
(15:00) 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at PHI 41 for 1 yard (21-M.Robinson). ** Injury Update: PHI-26-S.Barkley has returned to the game. PENALTY on PHI-56-T.Steen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Q313:46(13:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to PHI 42 for 6 yards (53-A.Hill). PENALTY on PHI-65-L.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 36 - No Play.Play 2153
(13:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to PHI 42 for 6 yards (53-A.Hill). PENALTY on PHI-65-L.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 36 - No Play.
Q408:39(8:39) 0-M.Brown left end ran ob at 50 for 8 yards (23-K.Winston). PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 45.Play 3321
(8:39) 0-M.Brown left end ran ob at 50 for 8 yards (23-K.Winston). PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 45.
Q406:08(6:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Harris [98-J.Simmons] at TEN 14. 26-M.Harris pushed ob at TEN 17 for 3 yards (6-D.Smith).Play 3436
(6:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Harris [98-J.Simmons] at TEN 14. 26-M.Harris pushed ob at TEN 17 for 3 yards (6-D.Smith).
Q404:21(4:21) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to PHI 22 for 2 yards (94-B.Young; 24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on TEN-51-A.Schlottmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 24 - No Play.Play 3561
(4:21) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to PHI 22 for 2 yards (94-B.Young; 24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on TEN-51-A.Schlottmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 24 - No Play.
Q403:33(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 4-W.Robinson. PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Latham, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 37 - No Play.Play 3616
(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 4-W.Robinson. PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Latham, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 37 - No Play.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q110:28Penalty · PHI(10:28) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to TEN 37 for 1 yard (53-A.Hill). PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 38 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q210:58Penalty · TEN(10:58) 2-T.Spears left tackle to PHI 45 for 4 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on TEN-0-C.Ridley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 45.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:22Penalty · PHI(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end ran ob at TEN 31 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 31.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:00Penalty · PHI(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right guard to TEN 10 for 2 yards (37-A.Hooker; 7-O.Oladejo). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 12 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q201:45Fumble · TEN(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 32 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 32 for 2 yards (11-J.Campbell). FUMBLES (11-J.Campbell), ball out of bounds at TEN 32. 10-second runoff.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q315:00Penalty · PHI6-J.Slye kicks 35 yards from TEN 35 to PHI 30, short of landing zone. PENALTY on TEN-6-J.Slye, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PHI 40.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q315:00Penalty · PHI(15:00) 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at PHI 41 for 1 yard (21-M.Robinson). ** Injury Update: PHI-26-S.Barkley has returned to the game. PENALTY on PHI-56-T.Steen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:46Penalty · PHI(13:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to PHI 42 for 6 yards (53-A.Hill). PENALTY on PHI-65-L.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 36 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q408:39Penalty · PHI(8:39) 0-M.Brown left end ran ob at 50 for 8 yards (23-K.Winston). PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 45.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:21Penalty · TEN(4:21) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to PHI 22 for 2 yards (94-B.Young; 24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on TEN-51-A.Schlottmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 24 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:33Penalty · TEN(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 4-W.Robinson. PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Latham, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 37 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.