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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: SF by 1.5; actual result: SF by 6.
The 4.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 491 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty yards: 155 versus 90.7 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 209 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 80.77%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: SF by 7.5; actual result: SF by 6. The difference was 1.5 points.
6,552 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin San Francisco 49ers by 7.5
Final margin San Francisco 49ers by 6
Difference 1.5 points
Arizona Cardinals covered the spread.
6,552 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (90%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score SF by 1.5
Actual final margin SF by 6
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
San Francisco 49ers chance to win during the game 155 preplay estimates across 191 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 36 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence -0.7 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 4 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 01:52 Recorded game event
San Francisco 49ers · Play 4402 (1:52) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF-85-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 10.
A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.7 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:26 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 4536 (1:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 44 for 10 yards (54-F.Warner). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 43 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.1 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 09:14 Recorded game event
San Francisco 49ers · Play 3776 (9:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 86-K.Hodge (21-G.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-10-J.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 6 yards, enforced at ARI 11 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 191 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 191 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 18-E.Pineiro kicks 63 yards from SF 35 to ARI 2. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 27 for 25 yards (86-K.Hodge). Play 39 18-E.Pineiro kicks 63 yards from SF 35 to ARI 2. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 27 for 25 yards (86-K.Hodge).
Q114:55 (14:55) 4-J.Love right guard to ARI 34 for 7 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 0-R.Green). Play 62 (14:55) 4-J.Love right guard to ARI 34 for 7 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 0-R.Green).
Q114:24 (14:24) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (93-G.Halton). Play 84 (14:24) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (93-G.Halton).
Q114:21 (14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 39 for 5 yards (27-J.Brown). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 100 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q409:14 Penalty · SF (9:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 86-K.Hodge (21-G.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-10-J.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 6 yards, enforced at ARI 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF 4.91 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 5
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 550
Half seconds remaining 550
Quarter seconds remaining 550
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 30be4e6da445d997a452da4c59e600bd19e2779368e4dbd4057d1c07bfdc6317sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5490c60a6d2bf2afc01c7dc0a13dd1f75bdec470381e683a9f2ac52a02db8acbnflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 2, 2026, 5:36 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 32f2748b9e482cdab33f11c3d75438872ae98351665956028d25581f011ce9e2This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
491 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 209 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Brad Allen Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.4 accepted penalties for 89.2 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.3 / 40.8 yd per game. Away teams: 6.1 / 48.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Brad Allen; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape San Francisco 49ers · Opponent penalties Opponent ARI was charged 10 penalties for 86 yards.
Arizona Cardinals · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Arizona Cardinals · Opponent penalties Opponent SF was charged 7 penalties for 69 yards.
Explore the historical comparisons (1) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
San Francisco 49ers Historical context
Winning-profile context SF won. Prior matching team-games: 1226 wins, 4513 losses, 13 ties among 5752 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
1,226 / 5,752 prior matching team-games were wins
4,513 losses · 13 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 155 model estimates across 191 recorded game entries.
36 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (191 entries) Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Ruling expected points consequence -0.76 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence 0.72 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Ruling expected points consequence 0.81 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence 0.62 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Ruling expected points consequence 0.77 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence 2.76 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Ruling expected points consequence 0.76 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence 4.91 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Ruling expected points consequence 2.87 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20716/0.20780/0.21109 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0.81 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10239/ NA/0.09426 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03713/ NA/0.03838 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94907/ NA/0.95100 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05011/0.04221/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0.78 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04789/0.04005/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.93955/ NA/0.94312 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05427/0.06702/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02973/0.02532/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.91912/ NA/0.92105 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05003/ NA/0.05331 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
SF Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
ARI Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
SF Field goal points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
ARI Field goal points above expectation 1.02 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 39th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
SF Extra point points above expectation -1.8 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 98th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
ARI Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 37th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
SF Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ARI Charted drops 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF Interception worthy throws 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ARI Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF QB attributed sacks Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Charting tag missing
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ARI QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF Catchable targets 16 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ARI Catchable targets 41 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF Contested targets 7 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ARI Contested targets 9 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ARI Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
ARI Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.19 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
88 of 88 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 88 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.45 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
88 of 88 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 88 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.36 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 29 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.63 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 29 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SF Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.05 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 54 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SF Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.04 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 54 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SF Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.64 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
56 of 56 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 56 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SF Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.25 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
56 of 56 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 56 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Defensive penalty on ARI awarded SF a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.4 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 10:05 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 1430 (10:05) (No Huddle) PENALTY on SF, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 47 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on SF awarded ARI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.8 percentage points across this play.
Play 107
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 39 for 5 yards (27-J.Brown).
Q113:42 (13:42) 4-J.Love left guard to ARI 45 for 6 yards (2-D.Lenoir). Play 132 (13:42) 4-J.Love left guard to ARI 45 for 6 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
Q113:07 (13:07) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 46 for 1 yard (55-S.Valdez). Play 154 (13:07) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 46 for 1 yard (55-S.Valdez).
Q112:26 (12:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson ran ob at SF 49 for 5 yards. Play 176 (12:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson ran ob at SF 49 for 5 yards.
Q111:47 (11:47) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Brooks. Play 206 (11:47) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Brooks.
Q111:43 (11:43) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left end to SF 41 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner; 27-J.Brown). Play 236 (11:43) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left end to SF 41 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner; 27-J.Brown).
Q111:06 (11:06) 4-J.Love right tackle to SF 36 for 5 yards (0-R.Green; 54-F.Warner). Play 269 (11:06) 4-J.Love right tackle to SF 36 for 5 yards (0-R.Green; 54-F.Warner).
Q110:30 (10:30) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (0-R.Green). Play 291 (10:30) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (0-R.Green).
Q110:22 Timeout #1 by ARI at 10:22. Play 326 Timeout #1 by ARI at 10:22.
Q110:22 (10:22) 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 33 for 3 yards (0-R.Green). PENALTY on ARI-84-E.Higgins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 36 - No Play. Play 314 (10:22) 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 33 for 3 yards (0-R.Green). PENALTY on ARI-84-E.Higgins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 36 - No Play.
Q110:04 (10:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier pushed ob at SF 41 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 2-D.Lenoir). Play 354 (10:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier pushed ob at SF 41 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 2-D.Lenoir).
Q109:31 (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne. Play 379 (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne.
Q109:27 (9:27) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback. Play 409 (9:27) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
Q109:18 (9:18) PENALTY on SF-68-C.McKivitz, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 20 - No Play. Play 427 (9:18) PENALTY on SF-68-C.McKivitz, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 20 - No Play.
Q109:18 (9:18) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-M.Evans (16-M.Melton). Play 458 (9:18) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-M.Evans (16-M.Melton).
Q109:15 (9:15) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to SF 18 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens). Play 481 (9:15) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to SF 18 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
Q108:40 (8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to 19-D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 503 (8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to 19-D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q108:26 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 534 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q108:26 18-E.Pineiro kicks 63 yards from SF 35 to ARI 2. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 31 for 29 yards (86-K.Hodge). Play 549 18-E.Pineiro kicks 63 yards from SF 35 to ARI 2. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 31 for 29 yards (86-K.Hodge).
Q108:20 (8:20) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 35 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 579 (8:20) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 35 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q108:04 (8:04) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 40 for 5 yards (90-K.Givens; 0-R.Green). Play 604 (8:04) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 40 for 5 yards (90-K.Givens; 0-R.Green).
Q107:42 (7:42) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner). Play 634 (7:42) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 41 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner).
Q107:01 (7:01) 4-J.Love right guard to ARI 49 for 8 yards (0-R.Green). Play 656 (7:01) 4-J.Love right guard to ARI 49 for 8 yards (0-R.Green).
Q106:26 (6:26) 4-J.Love left end pushed ob at 50 for 1 yard (0-R.Green). PENALTY on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 49 - No Play. Penalty on ARI-85-T.McBride, Offensive Offside, declined. Play 678 (6:26) 4-J.Love left end pushed ob at 50 for 1 yard (0-R.Green). PENALTY on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 49 - No Play. Penalty on ARI-85-T.McBride, Offensive Offside, declined.
Q106:07 (6:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 89-H.Long to ARI 44 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner). Play 716 (6:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 89-H.Long to ARI 44 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q105:25 (5:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison (2-D.Lenoir) [54-F.Warner]. Penalty on ARI-18-M.Harrison, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. Play 741 (5:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison (2-D.Lenoir) [54-F.Warner]. Penalty on ARI-18-M.Harrison, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q105:18 (5:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. Play 775 (5:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.
Q105:11 (5:11) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 15 for 8 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 28-A.Wingard). Play 795 (5:11) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 15 for 8 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 28-A.Wingard).
Q104:31 (4:31) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 20 for 5 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 28-A.Wingard). Play 824 (4:31) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 20 for 5 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 28-A.Wingard).
Q103:52 (3:52) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep right to 89-L.Farrell. Play 846 (3:52) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep right to 89-L.Farrell.
Q103:43 (3:43) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end to SF 23 for 3 yards (56-D.Robinson; 28-A.Wingard). Play 869 (3:43) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end to SF 23 for 3 yards (56-D.Robinson; 28-A.Wingard).
Q102:56 Timeout #1 by SF at 02:56. Play 903 Timeout #1 by SF at 02:56.
Q102:56 (2:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 36 for 13 yards (28-A.Wingard; 21-G.Williams). Play 891 (2:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 36 for 13 yards (28-A.Wingard; 21-G.Williams).
Q102:14 (2:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 26-K.Black (25-Z.Collins). Play 923 (2:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 26-K.Black (25-Z.Collins).
Q102:06 (2:06) 26-K.Black up the middle to SF 34 for -2 yards (5-B.Browning, 54-E.Leota). Play 953 (2:06) 26-K.Black up the middle to SF 34 for -2 yards (5-B.Browning, 54-E.Leota).
Q101:27 (1:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 17-J.Watkins to ARI 40 for 26 yards (16-M.Melton) [5-B.Browning]. Play 975 (1:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 17-J.Watkins to ARI 40 for 26 yards (16-M.Melton) [5-B.Browning].
Q100:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk (50-J.Gibbens). PENALTY on ARI-50-J.Gibbens, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 40 - No Play. Play 1000 (:47) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk (50-J.Gibbens). PENALTY on ARI-50-J.Gibbens, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 40 - No Play.
Q100:42 (:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 23 for 12 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 1034 (:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 23 for 12 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1059 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1079 (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q214:55 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 1100 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q214:55 18-E.Pineiro kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 29 for 28 yards (9-B.Willis; 89-L.Farrell). Play 1115 18-E.Pineiro kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 29 for 28 yards (9-B.Willis; 89-L.Farrell).
Q214:47 (14:47) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love to ARI 32 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Play 1138 (14:47) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love to ARI 32 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
Q214:07 (14:07) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 36 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner; 93-G.Halton). Play 1163 (14:07) 4-J.Love up the middle to ARI 36 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner; 93-G.Halton).
Q213:28 (13:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to ARI 46 for 10 yards (20-U.Stout). PENALTY on ARI-85-T.McBride, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 36 - No Play. Play 1185 (13:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to ARI 46 for 10 yards (20-U.Stout). PENALTY on ARI-85-T.McBride, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 36 - No Play.
Q213:03 (13:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 30 for 4 yards (47-K.Kareem) [59-O.Okoronkwo]. Play 1221 (13:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 30 for 4 yards (47-K.Kareem) [59-O.Okoronkwo].
Q212:18 (12:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 4-J.Cowing to SF 14 for 7 yards (25-Z.Collins). Play 1246 (12:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 4-J.Cowing to SF 14 for 7 yards (25-Z.Collins).
Q212:07 (12:07) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at SF 19 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 1272 (12:07) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at SF 19 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q211:38 (11:38) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left. Play 1304 (11:38) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left.
Q211:30 (11:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey. Play 1327 (11:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey.
Q211:24 (11:24) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 38 for 10 yards (51-L.Gifford). Play 1350 (11:24) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 38 for 10 yards (51-L.Gifford).
Q211:12 (11:12) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 47 for 9 yards (0-R.Green; 57-D.Greenlaw). Play 1376 (11:12) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 47 for 9 yards (0-R.Green; 57-D.Greenlaw).
Q210:33 (10:33) 4-J.Love left end to ARI 47 for no gain (6-M.Mustapha). Play 1408 (10:33) 4-J.Love left end to ARI 47 for no gain (6-M.Mustapha).
Q210:05 (10:05) (No Huddle) PENALTY on SF, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 47 - No Play. Play 1430 (10:05) (No Huddle) PENALTY on SF, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 47 - No Play.
Q209:55 (9:55) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at SF 43 for 5 yards (6-M.Mustapha; 0-R.Green). Play 1454 (9:55) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at SF 43 for 5 yards (6-M.Mustapha; 0-R.Green).
Q209:18 (9:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to SF 36 for 7 yards (0-R.Green). Play 1484 (9:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to SF 36 for 7 yards (0-R.Green).
Q208:45 (8:45) PENALTY on ARI-74-I.Adams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 36 - No Play. Play 1509 (8:45) PENALTY on ARI-74-I.Adams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 36 - No Play.
Q208:26 (8:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 4-J.Love to SF 38 for 3 yards (27-J.Brown; 57-D.Greenlaw). Play 1533 (8:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 4-J.Love to SF 38 for 3 yards (27-J.Brown; 57-D.Greenlaw).
Q207:51 (7:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 32 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner; 2-D.Lenoir). SF-2-D.Lenoir was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at SF 38 - No Play. Play 1558 (7:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 32 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner; 2-D.Lenoir). SF-2-D.Lenoir was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at SF 38 - No Play.
Q207:31 (7:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride to SF 25 for 18 yards (6-M.Mustapha; 27-J.Brown). Play 1597 (7:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride to SF 25 for 18 yards (6-M.Mustapha; 27-J.Brown).
Q206:51 (6:51) PENALTY on ARI-65-E.Wilkinson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play. Play 1622 (6:51) PENALTY on ARI-65-E.Wilkinson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play.
Q206:32 (6:32) 4-J.Love left guard to SF 25 for 5 yards (56-K.White; 6-M.Mustapha). Play 1646 (6:32) 4-J.Love left guard to SF 25 for 5 yards (56-K.White; 6-M.Mustapha).
Q205:51 (5:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right. Play 1673 (5:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right.
Q205:47 (5:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to SF 16 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner). Play 1696 (5:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to SF 16 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q205:07 (5:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 9 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner; 25-J.Jones). Play 1721 (5:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 9 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner; 25-J.Jones).
Q204:29 (4:29) 22-T.Allgeier right guard to SF 12 for -3 yards (54-F.Warner). Play 1746 (4:29) 22-T.Allgeier right guard to SF 12 for -3 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q203:51 (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson. Play 1768 (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson.
Q203:47 (3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love to SF 8 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Play 1791 (3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love to SF 8 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
Q203:08 (3:08) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 1816 (3:08) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q203:03 38-C.Ryland kicks 61 yards from ARI 35 to SF 4. 19-D.Samuel to SF 32 for 28 yards (84-E.Higgins). Play 1836 38-C.Ryland kicks 61 yards from ARI 35 to SF 4. 19-D.Samuel to SF 32 for 28 yards (84-E.Higgins).
Q202:58 (2:58) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 34 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins). Play 1866 (2:58) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 34 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins).
Q202:19 (2:19) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to SF 38 for 4 yards (50-J.Gibbens). Play 1888 (2:19) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to SF 38 for 4 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 47 for 9 yards (3-B.Baker). Penalty on ARI-29-D.Burke, Defensive Holding, declined. Play 1910 (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 47 for 9 yards (3-B.Baker). Penalty on ARI-29-D.Burke, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q201:54 (1:54) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 5-M.Evans (29-D.Burke) [97-W.Nolen]. Play 1953 (1:54) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 5-M.Evans (29-D.Burke) [97-W.Nolen].
Q201:49 (1:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Kittle [50-J.Gibbens]. Play 1976 (1:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Kittle [50-J.Gibbens].
Q201:45 (1:45) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-M.Evans. SF-5-M.Evans was injured during the play. Play 1999 (1:45) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-M.Evans. SF-5-M.Evans was injured during the play.
Q201:41 Timeout #2 by SF at 01:41. Play 2037 Timeout #2 by SF at 01:41.
Q201:41 (1:41) 15-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-53-J.Dugger. Play 2022 (1:41) 15-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-53-J.Dugger.
Q201:30 (1:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to ARI 32 for 14 yards (0-R.Green). Play 2052 (1:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to ARI 32 for 14 yards (0-R.Green).
Q201:11 (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at ARI 49 for 17 yards (25-J.Jones). Play 2084 (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at ARI 49 for 17 yards (25-J.Jones).
Q201:06 (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 40 for 11 yards (25-J.Jones). Play 2109 (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 40 for 11 yards (25-J.Jones).
Q200:47 (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to SF 34 for 6 yards (49-G.Wallow; 54-F.Warner). PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34. Play 2138 (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to SF 34 for 6 yards (49-G.Wallow; 54-F.Warner). PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34.
Q200:41 (:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson. Play 2174 (:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson.
Q200:36 (:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier to SF 23 for -4 yards (93-G.Halton). Play 2197 (:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier to SF 23 for -4 yards (93-G.Halton).
Q200:30 Timeout #2 by ARI at 00:30. Play 2234 Timeout #2 by ARI at 00:30.
Q200:30 (:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson. Play 2222 (:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson.
Q200:27 (:27) 38-C.Ryland 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 2252 (:27) 38-C.Ryland 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q200:23 38-C.Ryland kicks 62 yards from ARI 35 to SF 3. 19-D.Samuel to SF 27 for 24 yards (84-E.Higgins; 0-C.Simon). Play 2272 38-C.Ryland kicks 62 yards from ARI 35 to SF 3. 19-D.Samuel to SF 27 for 24 yards (84-E.Higgins; 0-C.Simon).
Q200:17 (:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 17-J.Watkins pushed ob at ARI 39 for 34 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 2302 (:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 17-J.Watkins pushed ob at ARI 39 for 34 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q200:08 (:08) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Cowing. Play 2327 (:08) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Cowing.
Q200:04 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:04. Play 2368 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:04.
Q200:04 (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. PENALTY on ARI-56-D.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Play 2350 (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. PENALTY on ARI-56-D.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2399 Q315:00 38-C.Ryland kicks 61 yards from ARI 20 to SF 19. 19-D.Samuel to SF 29 for 10 yards (35-K.King; 43-K.Sharar). PENALTY on ARI-80-S.Fehoko, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 29. Play 2417 38-C.Ryland kicks 61 yards from ARI 20 to SF 19. 19-D.Samuel to SF 29 for 10 yards (35-K.King; 43-K.Sharar). PENALTY on ARI-80-S.Fehoko, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 29.
Q314:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 45 for 11 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 28-A.Wingard). Play 2456 (14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 45 for 11 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 28-A.Wingard).
Q314:18 (14:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to ARI 40 for 5 yards (50-J.Gibbens). Play 2481 (14:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to ARI 40 for 5 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
Q313:39 (13:39) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to ARI 37 for 3 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 2503 (13:39) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to ARI 37 for 3 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q313:00 (13:00) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 19 for 18 yards (28-A.Wingard; 3-B.Baker). Play 2525 (13:00) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 19 for 18 yards (28-A.Wingard; 3-B.Baker).
Q312:15 (12:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to ARI 7 for 12 yards (28-A.Wingard; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-1-Ma.Wilson was injured during the play. Play 2550 (12:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to ARI 7 for 12 yards (28-A.Wingard; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-1-Ma.Wilson was injured during the play.
Q311:46 (11:46) 26-K.Black right tackle to ARI 1 for 6 yards (25-Z.Collins). Play 2578 (11:46) 26-K.Black right tackle to ARI 1 for 6 yards (25-Z.Collins).
Q311:10 (11:10) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2607 (11:10) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q311:07 18-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 2625 18-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q311:07 18-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to ARI 3. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 31 for 28 yards (24-A.Davis; 9-B.Willis). Play 2640 18-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to ARI 3. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 31 for 28 yards (24-A.Davis; 9-B.Willis).
Q311:01 (11:01) 4-J.Love right guard to ARI 36 for 5 yards (27-J.Brown). ** Injury Update: SF-2-D.Lenoir has returned to the game. Play 2670 (11:01) 4-J.Love right guard to ARI 36 for 5 yards (27-J.Brown). ** Injury Update: SF-2-D.Lenoir has returned to the game.
Q310:30 (10:30) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 43 for 7 yards (0-R.Green). Play 2692 (10:30) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 43 for 7 yards (0-R.Green).
Q309:49 (9:49) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride ran ob at SF 44 for 13 yards. Play 2723 (9:49) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride ran ob at SF 44 for 13 yards.
Q309:17 (9:17) 4-J.Love left guard to SF 38 for 6 yards (93-G.Halton). Play 2754 (9:17) 4-J.Love left guard to SF 38 for 6 yards (93-G.Halton).
Q308:39 (8:39) 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 34 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner). ARI-89-H.Long was injured during the play. Play 2776 (8:39) 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 34 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner). ARI-89-H.Long was injured during the play.
Q308:15 (8:15) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to SF 32 for 2 yards (53-J.Dugger). Play 2801 (8:15) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to SF 32 for 2 yards (53-J.Dugger).
Q307:40 (7:40) 7-J.Brissett sacked at SF 32 for 0 yards (59-O.Okoronkwo). Play 2835 (7:40) 7-J.Brissett sacked at SF 32 for 0 yards (59-O.Okoronkwo).
Q307:00 (7:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 26 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner; 56-K.White). Play 2859 (7:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 26 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner; 56-K.White).
Q306:20 (6:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 21 for 5 yards (0-R.Green; 20-U.Stout). Play 2884 (6:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 21 for 5 yards (0-R.Green; 20-U.Stout).
Q305:44 (5:44) 4-J.Love up the middle to SF 15 for 6 yards (36-M.Sigle). ** Injury Update: ARI-89-H.Long has returned to the game. Play 2909 (5:44) 4-J.Love up the middle to SF 15 for 6 yards (36-M.Sigle). ** Injury Update: ARI-89-H.Long has returned to the game.
Q305:12 (5:12) 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 15 for no gain (27-J.Brown; 54-F.Warner). Play 2931 (5:12) 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 15 for no gain (27-J.Brown; 54-F.Warner).
Q304:29 Timeout #1 by ARI at 04:29. Play 2968 Timeout #1 by ARI at 04:29.
Q304:29 (4:29) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left end to SF 7 for 8 yards (47-K.Kareem). Play 2956 (4:29) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left end to SF 7 for 8 yards (47-K.Kareem).
Q303:47 (3:47) 4-J.Love left end to SF 5 for 2 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 2-D.Lenoir). Play 2985 (3:47) 4-J.Love left end to SF 5 for 2 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 2-D.Lenoir).
Q303:07 (3:07) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3007 (3:07) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q303:02 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SF-93-G.Halton was injured during the play. Play 3028 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SF-93-G.Halton was injured during the play.
Q303:02 38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 19-D.Samuel MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 6. 19-D.Samuel to SF 23 for 17 yards (54-E.Leota; 0-C.Simon). Play 3043 38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 19-D.Samuel MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 6. 19-D.Samuel to SF 23 for 17 yards (54-E.Leota; 0-C.Simon).
Q302:55 (2:55) 23-C.McCaffrey right end to SF 25 for 2 yards (29-D.Burke). ** Injury Update: ARI-1-Ma.Wilson has returned to the game. Play 3076 (2:55) 23-C.McCaffrey right end to SF 25 for 2 yards (29-D.Burke). ** Injury Update: ARI-1-Ma.Wilson has returned to the game.
Q302:18 (2:18) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 4-J.Cowing (29-D.Burke). Play 3112 (2:18) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 4-J.Cowing (29-D.Burke).
Q302:09 (2:09) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to SF 33 for 8 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on SF-75-C.Colby, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play. Play 3135 (2:09) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to SF 33 for 8 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on SF-75-C.Colby, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play.
Q301:45 (1:45) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 29 for 14 yards (54-E.Leota; 16-M.Melton). Play 3171 (1:45) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 29 for 14 yards (54-E.Leota; 16-M.Melton).
Q301:06 (1:06) 15-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to ARI 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 24 for 10 yards (33-S.Neal). Play 3193 (1:06) 15-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to ARI 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 24 for 10 yards (33-S.Neal).
Q300:56 (:56) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson. Play 3224 (:56) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson.
Q300:49 (:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride [90-K.Givens]. Play 3247 (:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride [90-K.Givens].
Q300:45 (:45) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Harrison. Play 3270 (:45) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Harrison.
Q300:41 (:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SF 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-S.Neal MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ARI-80-S.Fehoko at SF 28. Play 3293 (:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SF 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-S.Neal MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ARI-80-S.Fehoko at SF 28.
Q300:31 (:31) 4-J.Love right tackle to SF 26 for 2 yards (55-S.Valdez; 36-M.Sigle). Play 3329 (:31) 4-J.Love right tackle to SF 26 for 2 yards (55-S.Valdez; 36-M.Sigle).
Q3Clock unavailable The status of the game clock was assisted by replay. Play 3445 The status of the game clock was assisted by replay.
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3376 Q415:00 (15:00) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 20 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner). Play 3396 (15:00) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 20 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q414:21 (14:21) 4-J.Love up the middle to SF 20 for no gain (25-J.Jones; 57-D.Greenlaw). Play 3433 (14:21) 4-J.Love up the middle to SF 20 for no gain (25-J.Jones; 57-D.Greenlaw).
Q413:38 (13:38) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.McBride. SF-57-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at SF 20 - No Play. Penalty on SF-25-J.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. Play 3474 (13:38) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.McBride. SF-57-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at SF 20 - No Play. Penalty on SF-25-J.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q413:32 (13:32) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to SF 1 for no gain (54-F.Warner; 50-N.Jones). Play 3511 (13:32) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to SF 1 for no gain (54-F.Warner; 50-N.Jones).
Q413:10 (13:10) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3545 (13:10) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q413:06 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 3566 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q413:06 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35. Play 3581 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35.
Q413:06 (13:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 46 for 11 yards (28-A.Wingard). Play 3605 (13:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 46 for 11 yards (28-A.Wingard).
Q412:30 (12:30) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle to ARI 44 for 10 yards (28-A.Wingard; 31-W.Williams). Play 3630 (12:30) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle to ARI 44 for 10 yards (28-A.Wingard; 31-W.Williams).
Q411:55 (11:55) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right end to ARI 35 for 9 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 50-J.Gibbens). Play 3652 (11:55) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right end to ARI 35 for 9 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 50-J.Gibbens).
Q411:14 (11:14) 26-K.Black up the middle to ARI 26 for 9 yards (28-A.Wingard; 3-B.Baker). Play 3674 (11:14) 26-K.Black up the middle to ARI 26 for 9 yards (28-A.Wingard; 3-B.Baker).
Q410:32 (10:32) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end pushed ob at ARI 15 for 11 yards (29-D.Burke). Play 3696 (10:32) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end pushed ob at ARI 15 for 11 yards (29-D.Burke).
Q409:58 (9:58) 26-K.Black right tackle to ARI 11 for 4 yards (3-B.Baker; 55-D.Stills). Play 3726 (9:58) 26-K.Black right tackle to ARI 11 for 4 yards (3-B.Baker; 55-D.Stills).
Q409:18 (9:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk. Play 3753 (9:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk.
Q409:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 86-K.Hodge (21-G.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-10-J.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 6 yards, enforced at ARI 11 - No Play. Play 3776 (9:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 86-K.Hodge (21-G.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-10-J.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 6 yards, enforced at ARI 11 - No Play.
Q409:10 (9:10) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to ARI 5 for no gain (51-R.Lopez). PENALTY on SF, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 5 - No Play. Play 3810 (9:10) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to ARI 5 for no gain (51-R.Lopez). PENALTY on SF, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 5 - No Play.
Q408:46 (8:46) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3844 (8:46) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q408:42 18-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 3865 18-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q408:42 18-E.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to ARI 9. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 32 for 23 yards (33-S.Neal). Play 3880 18-E.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to ARI 9. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 32 for 23 yards (33-S.Neal).
Q408:38 (8:38) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 24 for -8 yards (56-K.White). ** Injury Update: SF-57-D.Greenlaw has returned to the game. Play 3910 (8:38) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 24 for -8 yards (56-K.White). ** Injury Update: SF-57-D.Greenlaw has returned to the game.
Q408:08 (8:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 31 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner). Play 3930 (8:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 31 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q407:40 (7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 18-M.Harrison to 50 for 19 yards (0-R.Green). Play 3955 (7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 18-M.Harrison to 50 for 19 yards (0-R.Green).
Q407:01 (7:01) 4-J.Love right end pushed ob at SF 45 for 5 yards (49-G.Wallow). Play 3983 (7:01) 4-J.Love right end pushed ob at SF 45 for 5 yards (49-G.Wallow).
Q406:41 (6:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 41 for 4 yards (2-D.Lenoir). Play 4010 (6:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 41 for 4 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
Q406:22 (6:22) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to SF 39 for 2 yards (47-K.Kareem). Play 4035 (6:22) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to SF 39 for 2 yards (47-K.Kareem).
Q405:47 (5:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to SF 33 for 6 yards (0-R.Green). Play 4057 (5:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to SF 33 for 6 yards (0-R.Green).
Q405:12 (5:12) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (55-S.Valdez; 54-F.Warner). Play 4082 (5:12) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (55-S.Valdez; 54-F.Warner).
Q404:52 (4:52) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 17-K.Bourne to SF 16 for 14 yards (0-R.Green). Play 4104 (4:52) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 17-K.Bourne to SF 16 for 14 yards (0-R.Green).
Q404:29 (4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to SF 8 for 8 yards (20-U.Stout; 36-M.Sigle). Play 4134 (4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to SF 8 for 8 yards (20-U.Stout; 36-M.Sigle).
Q403:56 (3:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 14-Mi.Wilson (92-O.Odighizuwa, 27-J.Brown). Play 4159 (3:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 14-Mi.Wilson (92-O.Odighizuwa, 27-J.Brown).
Q403:51 (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to SF 4 for 4 yards (49-G.Wallow). Play 4182 (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to SF 4 for 4 yards (49-G.Wallow).
Q403:19 (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to SF 1 for 3 yards (36-M.Sigle). Play 4207 (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to SF 1 for 3 yards (36-M.Sigle).
Q402:55 (2:55) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 4232 (2:55) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q402:51 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 4266 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q402:51 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35. Play 4281 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35.
Q402:51 (2:51) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 11 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 50-J.Gibbens). Play 4298 (2:51) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 11 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 50-J.Gibbens).
Q402:07 (2:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk (25-Z.Collins). Play 4323 (2:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk (25-Z.Collins).
Q402:03 (2:03) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to ARI 42 for 12 yards (31-W.Williams). Play 4346 (2:03) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to ARI 42 for 12 yards (31-W.Williams).
Q401:56 (1:56) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to ARI 45 for -3 yards (50-J.Gibbens). Play 4368 (1:56) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to ARI 45 for -3 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
Q401:52 Timeout #2 by ARI at 01:52. Play 4414 Timeout #2 by ARI at 01:52.
Q401:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF-85-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 10. Play 4402 (1:52) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF-85-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 10.
Q401:41 (1:41) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to ARI 20 for no gain (5-B.Browning; 97-W.Nolen). Play 4448 (1:41) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to ARI 20 for no gain (5-B.Browning; 97-W.Nolen).
Q401:37 Timeout #3 by ARI at 01:37. Play 4482 Timeout #3 by ARI at 01:37.
Q401:36 (1:36) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4470 (1:36) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:31 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 4498 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q401:31 18-E.Pineiro kicks 55 yards from SF 35 to ARI 10. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 34 for 24 yards (49-G.Wallow). Play 4513 18-E.Pineiro kicks 55 yards from SF 35 to ARI 10. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 34 for 24 yards (49-G.Wallow).
Q401:26 (1:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 44 for 10 yards (54-F.Warner). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 43 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner). Play 4536 (1:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 44 for 10 yards (54-F.Warner). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 43 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q401:17 (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-J.Love to SF 49 for 8 yards (2-D.Lenoir). Play 4561 (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-J.Love to SF 49 for 8 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
Q400:57 (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 31 for 18 yards (25-J.Jones). Play 4616 (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 31 for 18 yards (25-J.Jones).
Q400:40 (:40) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4641 (:40) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:39 Timeout #1 by SF at 00:39. Play 4682 Timeout #1 by SF at 00:39.
Q400:39 (:39) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 4664 (:39) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q400:34 38-C.Ryland kicks onside 10 yards from ARI 35 to ARI 45. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to ARI 45 for no gain. Play 4691 38-C.Ryland kicks onside 10 yards from ARI 35 to ARI 45. 19-D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to ARI 45 for no gain.
Q400:33 (:33) 13-B.Purdy kneels to ARI 46 for -1 yards. Play 4716 (:33) 13-B.Purdy kneels to ARI 46 for -1 yards.
Down
4
Game seconds remaining 550
Half seconds remaining 550
Quarter seconds remaining 550
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SF 2.87 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 5
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 550
Half seconds remaining 550
Quarter seconds remaining 550
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 6
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 11
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 550
Half seconds remaining 550
Quarter seconds remaining 550
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:51 Penalty · ARI (6:51) PENALTY on ARI-65-E.Wilkinson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF 2.76 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2211
Half seconds remaining 411
Quarter seconds remaining 411
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2211
Half seconds remaining 411
Quarter seconds remaining 411
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SF 0.76 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2211
Half seconds remaining 411
Quarter seconds remaining 411
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2211
Half seconds remaining 411
Quarter seconds remaining 411
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q105:18 Fourth down · ARI (5:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0.81 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 3.928416246222951
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.1616666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3018
Half seconds remaining 1218
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 318
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1023875064010613 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10239/ NA/0.09426 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:08 Kick · ARI (3:08) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0.78 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.250810710433125
Yardline 100 8
Elapsed share 0.4477777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1988
Half seconds remaining 188
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 188
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.0478860254137347 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04789/0.04005/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI 1.02 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q100:47 Penalty · SF (:47) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk (50-J.Gibbens). PENALTY on ARI-50-J.Gibbens, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF 0.72 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2742
Half seconds remaining 942
Quarter seconds remaining 42
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2742
Half seconds remaining 942
Quarter seconds remaining 42
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SF 0.81 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2742
Half seconds remaining 942
Quarter seconds remaining 42
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2742
Half seconds remaining 942
Quarter seconds remaining 42
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q109:18 Penalty · SF (9:18) PENALTY on SF-68-C.McKivitz, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF -0.7 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 85
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3258
Half seconds remaining 1458
Quarter seconds remaining 558
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 80
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3258
Half seconds remaining 1458
Quarter seconds remaining 558
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SF -0.76 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 85
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3258
Half seconds remaining 1458
Quarter seconds remaining 558
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 80
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3258
Half seconds remaining 1458
Quarter seconds remaining 558
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q208:45 Penalty · ARI (8:45) PENALTY on ARI-74-I.Adams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SF 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF 0.62 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 41
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2325
Half seconds remaining 525
Quarter seconds remaining 525
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 36
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2325
Half seconds remaining 525
Quarter seconds remaining 525
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SF 0.77 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 41
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2325
Half seconds remaining 525
Quarter seconds remaining 525
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 36
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2325
Half seconds remaining 525
Quarter seconds remaining 525
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q212:18 Fourth down · ARI (12:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 4-J.Cowing to SF 14 for 7 yards (25-Z.Collins). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 2.304590539508484
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.295
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2538
Half seconds remaining 738
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 738
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.03837532157771558 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03713/ NA/0.03838 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:24 Fourth down · SF (11:24) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 38 for 10 yards (51-L.Gifford). + Fourth down decision cost SF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 2.170381634542879
Yardline 100 81
Elapsed share 0.31
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2484
Half seconds remaining 684
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 684
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9510009579022277 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94907/ NA/0.95100 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:07 Fourth down · ARI (5:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 9 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner; 25-J.Jones). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.427627722861424
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.4147222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2107
Half seconds remaining 307
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 307
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.05011161090058803 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05011/0.04221/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q201:41 Fourth down · SF (1:41) 15-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-53-J.Dugger. + Fourth down decision cost SF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.135559229452945
Yardline 100 53
Elapsed share 0.4719444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 11
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1901
Half seconds remaining 101
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 101
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9431214788682017 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.93955/ NA/0.94312 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:27 Kick · ARI (:27) 38-C.Ryland 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 1.045926421612882
Yardline 100 23
Elapsed share 0.4925
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -11
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1827
Half seconds remaining 27
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 27
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.06701683451328451 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05427/0.06702/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI 1.02 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 88 recorded events Q306:20 Fourth down · ARI (6:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 21 for 5 yards (0-R.Green; 20-U.Stout). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.5695693345006868
Yardline 100 26
Elapsed share 0.6444444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1280
Half seconds remaining 1280
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 380
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.0297342068082062 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02973/0.02532/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q301:06 Fourth down · SF (1:06) 15-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to ARI 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 24 for 10 yards (33-S.Neal). + Fourth down decision cost SF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.401814939393344
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.7316666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7.5
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q300:41 Fumble · ARI (:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SF 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-S.Neal MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ARI-80-S.Fehoko at SF 28. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 0.3908070090262006
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.7386111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q110:22 Penalty · ARI (10:22) 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 33 for 3 yards (0-R.Green). PENALTY on ARI-84-E.Higgins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:27 Fourth down · ARI (9:27) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team SF
Away total 20.5
Home total 28
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7.5
Spread time 5.18050747978016
Yardline 100 41
Elapsed share 0.0925
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q108:26 Kick · SF 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Extra point points above expectation SF -1.8 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q106:26 Penalty · ARI (6:26) 4-J.Love left end pushed ob at 50 for 1 yard (0-R.Green). PENALTY on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 49 - No Play. Penalty on ARI-85-T.McBride, Offensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:25 Fourth down · ARI (5:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison (2-D.Lenoir) [54-F.Warner]. Penalty on ARI-18-M.Harrison, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q214:55 Kick · SF 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Extra point points above expectation SF -1.8 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q213:28 Penalty · ARI (13:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to ARI 46 for 10 yards (20-U.Stout). PENALTY on ARI-85-T.McBride, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:05 Penalty · ARI (10:05) (No Huddle) PENALTY on SF, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:51 Penalty · ARI (7:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 32 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner; 2-D.Lenoir). SF-2-D.Lenoir was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at SF 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Fourth down · SF (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 47 for 9 yards (3-B.Baker). Penalty on ARI-29-D.Burke, Defensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence SF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q200:47 Penalty · ARI (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to SF 34 for 6 yards (49-G.Wallow; 54-F.Warner). PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q200:04 Penalty · SF (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. PENALTY on ARI-56-D.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence SF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q315:00 Penalty · SF 38-C.Ryland kicks 61 yards from ARI 20 to SF 19. 19-D.Samuel to SF 29 for 10 yards (35-K.King; 43-K.Sharar). PENALTY on ARI-80-S.Fehoko, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 29. + Observed ruling consequence SF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:07 Kick · SF 18-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Extra point points above expectation SF -1.8 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q303:02 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SF-93-G.Halton was injured during the play. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q302:09 Penalty · SF (2:09) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to SF 33 for 8 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on SF-75-C.Colby, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:38 Penalty · ARI (13:38) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.McBride. SF-57-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at SF 20 - No Play. Penalty on SF-25-J.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:06 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q409:10 Penalty · SF (9:10) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to ARI 5 for no gain (51-R.Lopez). PENALTY on SF, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 5 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:42 Kick · SF 18-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Extra point points above expectation SF -1.8 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q402:55 Fourth down · ARI (2:55) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:51 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q401:52 Penalty · SF (1:52) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF-85-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 10. + Observed ruling consequence SF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:31 Kick · SF 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Extra point points above expectation SF -1.8 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q400:39 Kick · ARI (:39) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Field goal points above expectation ARI 1.02 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q109:31 Execution · ARI (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne. + Charted drops ARI 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q201:45 Execution · SF (1:45) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-M.Evans. SF-5-M.Evans was injured during the play. + Interception worthy throws SF 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q108:40 Execution · SF (8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to 19-D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q102:56 Execution · SF (2:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 36 for 13 yards (28-A.Wingard; 21-G.Williams). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q102:14 Execution · SF (2:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 26-K.Black (25-Z.Collins). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SF 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q101:27 Execution · SF (1:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 17-J.Watkins to ARI 40 for 26 yards (16-M.Melton) [5-B.Browning]. + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q100:42 Execution · SF (:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 23 for 12 yards (16-M.Melton). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SF 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Execution · SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SF 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions SF 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q212:07 Execution · SF (12:07) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at SF 19 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q200:17 Execution · SF (:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 17-J.Watkins pushed ob at ARI 39 for 34 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q314:54 Execution · SF (14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 45 for 11 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 28-A.Wingard). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q313:00 Execution · SF (13:00) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 19 for 18 yards (28-A.Wingard; 3-B.Baker). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q312:15 Execution · SF (12:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to ARI 7 for 12 yards (28-A.Wingard; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-1-Ma.Wilson was injured during the play. + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q413:06 Execution · SF (13:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 46 for 11 yards (28-A.Wingard). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q408:46 Execution · SF (8:46) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q402:51 Execution · SF (2:51) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 11 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 50-J.Gibbens). + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q401:36 Execution · SF (1:36) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SF 16 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q114:21 Execution · ARI (14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 39 for 5 yards (27-J.Brown). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q112:26 Execution · ARI (12:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson ran ob at SF 49 for 5 yards. + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q110:30 Execution · ARI (10:30) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q110:04 Execution · ARI (10:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier pushed ob at SF 41 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 2-D.Lenoir). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q108:20 Execution · ARI (8:20) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 35 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The ball spot was assisted by replay. + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q106:07 Execution · ARI (6:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 89-H.Long to ARI 44 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q214:47 Execution · ARI (14:47) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love to ARI 32 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q213:03 Execution · ARI (13:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 30 for 4 yards (47-K.Kareem) [59-O.Okoronkwo]. + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q211:12 Execution · ARI (11:12) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 47 for 9 yards (0-R.Green; 57-D.Greenlaw). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q209:55 Execution · ARI (9:55) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at SF 43 for 5 yards (6-M.Mustapha; 0-R.Green). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q209:18 Execution · ARI (9:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to SF 36 for 7 yards (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q208:26 Execution · ARI (8:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 4-J.Love to SF 38 for 3 yards (27-J.Brown; 57-D.Greenlaw). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q207:31 Execution · ARI (7:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride to SF 25 for 18 yards (6-M.Mustapha; 27-J.Brown). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q205:47 Execution · ARI (5:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to SF 16 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q203:51 Execution · ARI (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson. + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q203:47 Execution · ARI (3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love to SF 8 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q201:30 Execution · ARI (1:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to ARI 32 for 14 yards (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q201:11 Execution · ARI (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at ARI 49 for 17 yards (25-J.Jones). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q201:06 Execution · ARI (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 40 for 11 yards (25-J.Jones). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions ARI 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q200:36 Execution · ARI (:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-T.Allgeier to SF 23 for -4 yards (93-G.Halton). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q310:30 Execution · ARI (10:30) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 43 for 7 yards (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q309:49 Execution · ARI (9:49) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride ran ob at SF 44 for 13 yards. + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q307:00 Execution · ARI (7:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 26 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner; 56-K.White). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q303:07 Execution · ARI (3:07) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q415:00 Execution · ARI (15:00) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 20 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q413:10 Execution · ARI (13:10) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q408:08 Execution · ARI (8:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 31 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q407:40 Execution · ARI (7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 18-M.Harrison to 50 for 19 yards (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q406:41 Execution · ARI (6:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 41 for 4 yards (2-D.Lenoir). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q405:47 Execution · ARI (5:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to SF 33 for 6 yards (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q404:52 Execution · ARI (4:52) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 17-K.Bourne to SF 16 for 14 yards (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q404:29 Execution · ARI (4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to SF 8 for 8 yards (20-U.Stout; 36-M.Sigle). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q403:51 Execution · ARI (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to SF 4 for 4 yards (49-G.Wallow). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q403:19 Execution · ARI (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to SF 1 for 3 yards (36-M.Sigle). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q401:26 Execution · ARI (1:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 44 for 10 yards (54-F.Warner). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 43 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q401:17 Execution · ARI (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-J.Love to SF 49 for 8 yards (2-D.Lenoir). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q400:57 Execution · ARI (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 31 for 18 yards (25-J.Jones). + Catchable targets ARI 41 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q109:18 Execution · SF (9:18) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-M.Evans (16-M.Melton). + Contested targets SF 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q201:54 Execution · SF (1:54) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 5-M.Evans (29-D.Burke) [97-W.Nolen]. + Contested targets SF 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q409:18 Execution · SF (9:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 44-K.Juszczyk. + Contested targets SF 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q402:07 Execution · SF (2:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk (25-Z.Collins). + Contested targets SF 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q200:41 Execution · ARI (:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson. + Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Q300:56 Execution · ARI (:56) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson. + Contested targets ARI 9 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
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Retrieved Oct 3, 2026, 12:01 PM UTC
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1594f6f4015953f59e72ea80763f0af03dd92736b79ad838c729352d8116a12Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 1a23acded223e0a487815d6a17ea159101a956372860128745b196cb97f5c1f9
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 34 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
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Sep 28, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 27, 2026, 11:41 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining 966
Half seconds remaining 966
Quarter seconds remaining 66
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9210516735948824 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.91912/ NA/0.92105 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-10
Game seconds remaining 941
Half seconds remaining 941
Quarter seconds remaining 41
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.05330873581462457 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05003/ NA/0.05331 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 3267
Half seconds remaining 1467
Quarter seconds remaining 567
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2110918861490913 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20716/0.20780/0.21109 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 51/51 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled