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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: BAL by 0.9; actual result: BAL by 3.
The 2.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 648 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty yards: 166 versus 101.1 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 201 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 77.69%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: BAL by 3.0; actual result: BAL by 3. The difference was 0 points.
7,276 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Baltimore Ravens by 3
Final margin Baltimore Ravens by 3
Difference 0 points
Push — the final margin matched the spread.
7,276 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (100%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score BAL by 0.9
Actual final margin BAL by 3
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Dallas Cowboys chance to win during the game 152 preplay estimates across 186 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 34 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 8 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 00:14 Recorded game event
Dallas Cowboys · Play 4489 (:14) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens.
Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 9.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 13:22 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 3302 (13:22) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 1 for 1 yard (55-J.Barham; 91-O.Ogbonnia).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.0 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 11:37 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 1271 (11:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at BAL 48 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on DAL awarded BAL a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 19.0 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 186 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 186 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 0. 10-L.Wester to BAL 23 for 23 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford; 41-J.Houston). Play 39 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 0. 10-L.Wester to BAL 23 for 23 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford; 41-J.Houston).
Q114:56 (14:56) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 29 for 6 yards (34-J.Thompson). Play 62 (14:56) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 29 for 6 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Q114:21 (14:21) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 29 for no gain (91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 84 (14:21) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 29 for no gain (91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q113:43 (13:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 89-M.Andrews. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 38 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q211:37 Penalty · BAL (11:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at BAL 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL -22.62 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2489
Half seconds remaining 689
Quarter seconds remaining 689
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 30be4e6da445d997a452da4c59e600bd19e2779368e4dbd4057d1c07bfdc6317sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5490c60a6d2bf2afc01c7dc0a13dd1f75bdec470381e683a9f2ac52a02db8acbnflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 28, 2026, 4:41 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 80f9b3e1174f306388de479e6870e02ad6b3b216b9646607ff3fc761b8dfbf76This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
648 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 201 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: John Hussey Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 92.5 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.4 / 47.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.6 / 45.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by John Hussey; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Dallas Cowboys · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Dallas Cowboys · Opponent penalties Opponent BAL was charged 9 penalties for 78 yards.
Baltimore Ravens · Opponent penalties Opponent DAL was charged 7 penalties for 88 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 152 model estimates across 186 recorded game entries.
34 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (186 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence 1.45 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence 0.62 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence -5.05 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence -2.24 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence -22.62 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence -6.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence 3.26 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence 0.73 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
BAL Fourth down decision cost 2.05 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57150/ NA/0.55098 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 1.64 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47624/0.45988/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51017/ NA/0.45334 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0.12 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.52419/0.45166/0.52298 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30452/ NA/0.27865 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 1.69 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76428/0.74737/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25980/0.26067/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29737/0.23153/0.26947 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65085/ NA/0.70402 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 3.85 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28612/0.24764/0.24876 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82255/0.77513/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 6.84 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33764/ NA/0.26920 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62833/ NA/0.65151 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
DAL Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.27 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
BAL Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.27 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
DAL Field goal points above expectation 0.32 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
BAL Field goal points above expectation 1.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DAL Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
BAL Extra point points above expectation 0.16 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 63rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
DAL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 186 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
BAL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 186 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
BAL Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.67 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.14 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.57 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
44 of 44 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 44 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.37 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
44 of 44 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 44 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.39 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.24 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.29 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 25 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Pass interference called penalties above expectation 2.71 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 25 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 3. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q4 · 00:28 Recorded game event
Dallas Cowboys · Play 4379 (:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (2-N.Wiggins). PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at BAL 22 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 11.3 percentage points across this play.
Show 4 more plays Q4 · 03:57 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 3873 (3:57) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to DAL 26 for 12 yards (13-C.Downs). PENALTY on BAL-76-C.Vinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 38 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:20 Recorded game event
Dallas Cowboys · Play 4443 (:20) PENALTY on DAL-86-L.Schoonmaker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 2 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:47 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 4050 (1:47) (Shotgun) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.3 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:47 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 4093 (1:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left [7-R.Gary]. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 7 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.0 percentage points across this play.
Play 106
(13:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 89-M.Andrews.
Q113:37 (13:37) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 5 yards (49-J.Higgins). Play 129 (13:37) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 5 yards (49-J.Higgins).
Q113:27 (13:27) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-L.Schoonmaker to DAL 42 for 9 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 155 (13:27) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-L.Schoonmaker to DAL 42 for 9 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q112:55 (12:55) 33-J.Williams right guard to 50 for 8 yards (92-N.Madubuike). Play 180 (12:55) 33-J.Williams right guard to 50 for 8 yards (92-N.Madubuike).
Q112:20 (12:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 37 for 13 yards (2-N.Wiggins). Play 202 (12:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 37 for 13 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
Q111:59 (11:59) (No Huddle) 33-J.Williams left tackle to BAL 34 for 3 yards (95-T.Robinson). Play 232 (11:59) (No Huddle) 33-J.Williams left tackle to BAL 34 for 3 yards (95-T.Robinson).
Q111:11 (11:11) 33-J.Williams left tackle to BAL 17 for 17 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 254 (11:11) 33-J.Williams left tackle to BAL 17 for 17 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q110:40 (10:40) 33-J.Williams up the middle to BAL 9 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 276 (10:40) 33-J.Williams up the middle to BAL 9 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q110:09 (10:09) 33-J.Williams right tackle to BAL 5 for 4 yards (93-C.Campbell; 0-R.Smith). Play 298 (10:09) 33-J.Williams right tackle to BAL 5 for 4 yards (93-C.Campbell; 0-R.Smith).
Q109:35 (9:35) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to BAL 1 for 4 yards (9-Z.Young). Play 320 (9:35) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to BAL 1 for 4 yards (9-Z.Young).
Q108:59 (8:59) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 19-R.Flournoy. Play 342 (8:59) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 19-R.Flournoy.
Q108:53 (8:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at BAL 10 for -9 yards (0-R.Smith). Play 365 (8:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at BAL 10 for -9 yards (0-R.Smith).
Q108:13 (8:13) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 385 (8:13) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q108:10 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 9. 10-L.Wester MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 21. Play 405 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 9. 10-L.Wester MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 21.
Q108:06 (8:06) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry to BAL 21 for no gain (40-V.Miller) [91-O.Ogbonnia]. Play 439 (8:06) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry to BAL 21 for no gain (40-V.Miller) [91-O.Ogbonnia].
Q107:26 (7:26) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 21 for no gain (55-J.Barham). Play 464 (7:26) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 21 for no gain (55-J.Barham).
Q106:50 (6:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 30 for 9 yards (53-D.Winters; 55-J.Barham). Play 486 (6:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 30 for 9 yards (53-D.Winters; 55-J.Barham).
Q106:12 (6:12) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 30 for no gain (13-C.Downs). Play 511 (6:12) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 30 for no gain (13-C.Downs).
Q106:06 (6:06) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to BAL 27 for 3 yards (2-N.Wiggins; 32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Face Mask, 13 yards, enforced at BAL 27. Play 533 (6:06) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to BAL 27 for 3 yards (2-N.Wiggins; 32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Face Mask, 13 yards, enforced at BAL 27.
Q105:48 (5:48) 33-J.Williams up the middle to BAL 11 for 3 yards (93-C.Campbell; 9-Z.Young). Play 569 (5:48) 33-J.Williams up the middle to BAL 11 for 3 yards (93-C.Campbell; 9-Z.Young).
Q105:10 (5:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy. Play 591 (5:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy.
Q105:05 (5:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at BAL 2 for 9 yards (24-M.Starks) [95-T.Robinson]. Play 614 (5:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at BAL 2 for 9 yards (24-M.Starks) [95-T.Robinson].
Q104:35 (4:35) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 644 (4:35) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q104:32 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 667 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q104:32 17-B.Aubrey kicks 64 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 1, out of bounds. PENALTY on DAL-17-B.Aubrey, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at BAL 40. Play 682 17-B.Aubrey kicks 64 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 1, out of bounds. PENALTY on DAL-17-B.Aubrey, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at BAL 40.
Q104:32 (4:32) PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 40 - No Play. Play 716 (4:32) PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 40 - No Play.
Q104:32 (4:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end ran ob at DAL 44 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 740 (4:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end ran ob at DAL 44 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q103:57 (3:57) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DAL 42 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 767 (3:57) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DAL 42 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q103:12 (3:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 20 for 22 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 789 (3:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 20 for 22 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q102:42 (2:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DAL 9 for 11 yards (34-J.Thompson). Play 814 (2:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DAL 9 for 11 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Q102:05 (2:05) 22-D.Henry right guard to DAL 4 for 5 yards (34-J.Thompson; 57-M.Lawrence). Play 836 (2:05) 22-D.Henry right guard to DAL 4 for 5 yards (34-J.Thompson; 57-M.Lawrence).
Q101:22 (1:22) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 863 (1:22) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q101:18 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 890 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q101:18 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35. Play 905 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35.
Q101:18 (1:18) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb ran ob at DAL 46 for 11 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 929 (1:18) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb ran ob at DAL 46 for 11 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q100:50 (:50) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to 50 for 4 yards (2-N.Wiggins). Play 959 (:50) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to 50 for 4 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
Q100:11 (:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 19-R.Flournoy. Play 984 (:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 19-R.Flournoy.
Q100:04 (:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Ferguson (14-K.Hamilton). Play 1019 (:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Ferguson (14-K.Hamilton).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1042 Q215:00 (15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-L.Wester. Play 1062 (15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.
Q214:53 (14:53) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 16 for 5 yards (97-K.Clark; 57-M.Lawrence). Play 1082 (14:53) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 16 for 5 yards (97-K.Clark; 57-M.Lawrence).
Q214:15 (14:15) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers. PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at BAL 16 - No Play. Play 1104 (14:15) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers. PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at BAL 16 - No Play.
Q214:09 (14:09) 43-J.Hill left end to BAL 42 for 7 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 1138 (14:09) 43-J.Hill left end to BAL 42 for 7 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q213:24 (13:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers pushed ob at BAL 49 for 7 yards (28-S.Revel). Play 1160 (13:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers pushed ob at BAL 49 for 7 yards (28-S.Revel).
Q212:50 (12:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill to BAL 49 for no gain (28-S.Revel; 50-S.James). PENALTY on BAL-54-J.Gwyn, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play. Play 1190 (12:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill to BAL 49 for no gain (28-S.Revel; 50-S.James). PENALTY on BAL-54-J.Gwyn, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play.
Q212:25 (12:25) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left guard to BAL 48 for 4 yards (53-D.Winters; 90-J.Bullard). Play 1226 (12:25) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left guard to BAL 48 for 4 yards (53-D.Winters; 90-J.Bullard).
Q211:41 (11:41) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews. Play 1248 (11:41) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.
Q211:37 (11:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at BAL 48 - No Play. Play 1271 (11:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at BAL 48 - No Play.
Q211:29 (11:29) 22-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1305 (11:29) 22-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q211:23 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 1328 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q211:23 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35. Play 1343 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35.
Q211:23 (11:23) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 38 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 98-T.Jones). Play 1367 (11:23) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 38 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 98-T.Jones).
Q210:44 (10:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 43 for 5 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Play 1389 (10:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 43 for 5 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q210:02 (10:02) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 44 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton; 15-M.Green). Play 1414 (10:02) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 44 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton; 15-M.Green).
Q209:24 Timeout #1 by DAL at 09:24. Play 1448 Timeout #1 by DAL at 09:24.
Q209:24 (9:24) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 44 for no gain (0-R.Smith). FUMBLES (0-R.Smith), and recovers at DAL 43. Play 1436 (9:24) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 44 for no gain (0-R.Smith). FUMBLES (0-R.Smith), and recovers at DAL 43.
Q209:18 (9:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to DAL 37 for 6 yards (55-J.Barham). Play 1481 (9:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to DAL 37 for 6 yards (55-J.Barham).
Q208:47 (8:47) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on BAL-54-J.Gwyn, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 37 - No Play. Play 1513 (8:47) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on BAL-54-J.Gwyn, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 37 - No Play.
Q208:39 (8:39) 22-D.Henry right end to DAL 38 for 4 yards (7-R.Gary). Play 1565 (8:39) 22-D.Henry right end to DAL 38 for 4 yards (7-R.Gary).
Q208:01 (8:01) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right guard to DAL 31 for 7 yards (14-M.Bell; 28-S.Revel). Play 1587 (8:01) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right guard to DAL 31 for 7 yards (14-M.Bell; 28-S.Revel).
Q207:23 (7:23) 22-D.Henry left tackle to DAL 27 for 4 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). DAL-34-J.Thompson was injured during the play. Play 1609 (7:23) 22-D.Henry left tackle to DAL 27 for 4 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). DAL-34-J.Thompson was injured during the play.
Q206:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 85-J.Cuevas to DAL 13 for 14 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 1634 (6:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 85-J.Cuevas to DAL 13 for 14 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q206:08 (6:08) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end ran ob at DAL 12 for 1 yard (6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 1666 (6:08) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end ran ob at DAL 12 for 1 yard (6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q205:32 (5:32) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DAL 9 for 3 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 1693 (5:32) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DAL 9 for 3 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q204:51 (4:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers. Play 1715 (4:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers.
Q204:48 (4:48) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 1738 (4:48) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q204:44 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35. Play 1763 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35.
Q204:44 (4:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 41 for 6 yards (14-K.Hamilton) [93-C.Campbell]. Play 1787 (4:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 41 for 6 yards (14-K.Hamilton) [93-C.Campbell].
Q204:01 (4:01) 32-T.Goodson left tackle to BAL 49 for 10 yards (0-R.Smith; 93-C.Campbell). Play 1812 (4:01) 32-T.Goodson left tackle to BAL 49 for 10 yards (0-R.Smith; 93-C.Campbell).
Q203:20 (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 32-T.Goodson to DAL 46 for -5 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 1834 (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 32-T.Goodson to DAL 46 for -5 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q202:43 (2:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb ran ob at BAL 47 for 7 yards. Play 1859 (2:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb ran ob at BAL 47 for 7 yards.
Q202:11 (2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 36 for 11 yards (3-C.Awuzie). Play 1889 (2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 36 for 11 yards (3-C.Awuzie).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson left end to BAL 27 for 9 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 1914 (2:00) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson left end to BAL 27 for 9 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q201:25 (1:25) 33-J.Williams up the middle to BAL 24 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith; 92-N.Madubuike). Play 1948 (1:25) 33-J.Williams up the middle to BAL 24 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith; 92-N.Madubuike).
Q200:48 (:48) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson up the middle to BAL 20 for 4 yards (92-N.Madubuike; 14-K.Hamilton). Play 1970 (:48) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson up the middle to BAL 20 for 4 yards (92-N.Madubuike; 14-K.Hamilton).
Q200:33 Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:33. Play 2004 Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:33.
Q200:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 19-R.Flournoy. Play 1992 (:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 19-R.Flournoy.
Q200:27 Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:27. Play 2034 Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:27.
Q200:27 (:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 19-R.Flournoy [93-C.Campbell]. Play 2022 (:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 19-R.Flournoy [93-C.Campbell].
Q200:23 (:23) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 2052 (:23) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q200:18 17-B.Aubrey kicks 57 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 8. 26-R.Ali to BAL 24 for 16 yards (57-M.Lawrence). Play 2072 17-B.Aubrey kicks 57 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 8. 26-R.Ali to BAL 24 for 16 yards (57-M.Lawrence).
Q200:13 (:13) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle to BAL 28 for 4 yards (53-D.Winters; 6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 2095 (:13) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle to BAL 28 for 4 yards (53-D.Winters; 6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2117 Q315:00 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35. Play 2137 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35.
Q315:00 (15:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 47 for 12 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Play 2154 (15:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 47 for 12 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q314:20 (14:20) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 46 for -1 yards (98-T.Jones). BAL-14-K.Hamilton was injured during the play. Play 2179 (14:20) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 46 for -1 yards (98-T.Jones). BAL-14-K.Hamilton was injured during the play.
Q314:00 (14:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 19-R.Flournoy. Play 2204 (14:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 19-R.Flournoy.
Q313:54 (13:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 47 for 7 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Play 2227 (13:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 47 for 7 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q313:15 (13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Play 2252 (13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q312:40 (12:40) 33-J.Williams right guard to BAL 32 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson; 21-J.Hawkins). Play 2277 (12:40) 33-J.Williams right guard to BAL 32 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson; 21-J.Hawkins).
Q312:01 (12:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 25 for 7 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 2299 (12:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 25 for 7 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q311:23 (11:23) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to BAL 23 for 2 yards (2-N.Wiggins). Play 2321 (11:23) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to BAL 23 for 2 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
Q310:40 (10:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to BAL 24 for -1 yards (98-T.Jones). FUMBLES (98-T.Jones), RECOVERED by BAL-32-T.Simpson at BAL 25. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. Play 2346 (10:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to BAL 24 for -1 yards (98-T.Jones). FUMBLES (98-T.Jones), RECOVERED by BAL-32-T.Simpson at BAL 25. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q310:34 (10:34) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 26 for 1 yard (92-Q.Williams). Play 2387 (10:34) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 26 for 1 yard (92-Q.Williams).
Q309:57 (9:57) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 21 for -5 yards (92-Q.Williams). Play 2477 (9:57) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 21 for -5 yards (92-Q.Williams).
Q309:16 (9:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 81-D.Walker (11-A.Clark). ** Injury Update: BAL-89-M.Andrews has returned to the game. Play 2499 (9:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 81-D.Walker (11-A.Clark). ** Injury Update: BAL-89-M.Andrews has returned to the game.
Q309:08 (9:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 58 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 33 for 12 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 2522 (9:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 58 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 33 for 12 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q308:55 (8:55) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (44-M.Humphrey). ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game. Play 2556 (8:55) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (44-M.Humphrey). ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.
Q308:50 (8:50) 33-J.Williams left tackle to BAL 45 for 22 yards (24-M.Starks; 21-J.Hawkins). Play 2586 (8:50) 33-J.Williams left tackle to BAL 45 for 22 yards (24-M.Starks; 21-J.Hawkins).
Q308:23 (8:23) (No Huddle) 33-J.Williams left guard to BAL 42 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith; 95-T.Robinson). Play 2611 (8:23) (No Huddle) 33-J.Williams left guard to BAL 42 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith; 95-T.Robinson).
Q307:39 (7:39) 32-T.Goodson right tackle to BAL 44 for -2 yards (14-K.Hamilton, 9-Z.Young). Play 2633 (7:39) 32-T.Goodson right tackle to BAL 44 for -2 yards (14-K.Hamilton, 9-Z.Young).
Q307:04 (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 24 for 20 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 44 - No Play. Play 2655 (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 24 for 20 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 44 - No Play.
Q306:46 (6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 41 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [93-C.Campbell]. Play 2691 (6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 41 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [93-C.Campbell].
Q306:07 (6:07) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-K.Jackson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 2716 (6:07) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-K.Jackson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q305:54 (5:54) 22-D.Henry right tackle pushed ob at DAL 22 for 29 yards (28-S.Revel). Play 2737 (5:54) 22-D.Henry right tackle pushed ob at DAL 22 for 29 yards (28-S.Revel).
Q305:27 (5:27) (No Huddle) PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 22 - No Play. Play 2771 (5:27) (No Huddle) PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 22 - No Play.
Q305:08 (5:08) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right end pushed ob at DAL 16 for 11 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 2795 (5:08) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right end pushed ob at DAL 16 for 11 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q304:27 Timeout #1 by BAL at 04:27. Play 2839 Timeout #1 by BAL at 04:27.
Q304:27 (4:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to DAL 4 for 12 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 2827 (4:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to DAL 4 for 12 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q303:50 (3:50) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 17-C.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2856 (3:50) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 17-C.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q303:44 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 2882 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q303:44 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to DAL 2. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 31 yards (39-K.Jackson). Play 2897 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to DAL 2. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 31 yards (39-K.Jackson).
Q303:39 (3:39) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 48 for 15 yards (24-M.Starks; 14-K.Hamilton). Play 2932 (3:39) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 48 for 15 yards (24-M.Starks; 14-K.Hamilton).
Q303:06 (3:06) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Ferguson. Play 2954 (3:06) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Ferguson.
Q302:58 (2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 33-J.Williams (14-K.Hamilton). Play 2977 (2:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 33-J.Williams (14-K.Hamilton).
Q302:55 (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at BAL 33 for 19 yards (0-R.Smith; 29-C.Rivers). PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 33. Play 3000 (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at BAL 33 for 19 yards (0-R.Smith; 29-C.Rivers). PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 33.
Q302:36 (2:36) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson right end to BAL 19 for -1 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 3041 (2:36) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson right end to BAL 19 for -1 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q301:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 87-J.Ferguson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3063 (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 87-J.Ferguson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q301:48 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 88-C.Lamb is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 3089 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 88-C.Lamb is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q301:48 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 20. Play 3102 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 20.
Q301:48 (1:48) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 88-M.Hibner to BAL 41 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell; 28-S.Revel). ** Injury Update: DAL-14-M.Bell has returned to the game. Play 3126 (1:48) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 88-M.Hibner to BAL 41 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell; 28-S.Revel). ** Injury Update: DAL-14-M.Bell has returned to the game.
Q301:03 (1:03) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 46 for 5 yards (99-L.Overton). Play 3151 (1:03) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 46 for 5 yards (99-L.Overton).
Q300:21 (:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman to DAL 23 for 31 yards (11-A.Clark). Play 3173 (:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman to DAL 23 for 31 yards (11-A.Clark).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3201 Q415:00 (15:00) 4-Z.Flowers left end to DAL 3 for 20 yards (28-S.Revel). DAL-28-S.Revel was injured during the play. Play 3221 (15:00) 4-Z.Flowers left end to DAL 3 for 20 yards (28-S.Revel). DAL-28-S.Revel was injured during the play.
Q414:29 (14:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end pushed ob at DAL 4 for -1 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 3246 (14:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end pushed ob at DAL 4 for -1 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q414:05 (14:05) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to DAL 2 for 2 yards (14-M.Bell; 55-J.Barham). Play 3280 (14:05) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to DAL 2 for 2 yards (14-M.Bell; 55-J.Barham).
Q413:22 (13:22) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 1 for 1 yard (55-J.Barham; 91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 3302 (13:22) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 1 for 1 yard (55-J.Barham; 91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q413:07 (13:07) 22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 4 for -3 yards (55-J.Barham). Play 3352 (13:07) 22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 4 for -3 yards (55-J.Barham).
Q413:03 (13:03) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 5 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson). Play 3374 (13:03) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 5 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson).
Q412:25 (12:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at BAL 46 for 49 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Play 3396 (12:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at BAL 46 for 49 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q411:52 (11:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford to BAL 27 for 19 yards (15-M.Green) [91-T.Hendrickson]. Play 3421 (11:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford to BAL 27 for 19 yards (15-M.Green) [91-T.Hendrickson].
Q411:05 (11:05) 32-T.Goodson right tackle to BAL 25 for 2 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 3446 (11:05) 32-T.Goodson right tackle to BAL 25 for 2 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q410:30 (10:30) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (95-T.Robinson). Play 3473 (10:30) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (95-T.Robinson).
Q410:27 (10:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 9 for 16 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 44-M.Humphrey). Play 3496 (10:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 9 for 16 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 44-M.Humphrey).
Q409:46 (9:46) 9-K.Turpin left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3526 (9:46) 9-K.Turpin left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q409:42 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 3549 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q409:42 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 9, out of bounds. PENALTY on DAL-17-B.Aubrey, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at BAL 40. Play 3575 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 9, out of bounds. PENALTY on DAL-17-B.Aubrey, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at BAL 40.
Q409:42 (9:42) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 44 for 4 yards (97-K.Clark). Play 3612 (9:42) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 44 for 4 yards (97-K.Clark).
Q409:06 (9:06) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 49 for 5 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 3634 (9:06) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 49 for 5 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q408:22 (8:22) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 45 for -4 yards (55-J.Barham). Play 3659 (8:22) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 45 for -4 yards (55-J.Barham).
Q407:40 (7:40) 30-R.Eckley punts 48 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 17 yards (46-N.Moore). Play 3683 (7:40) 30-R.Eckley punts 48 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 17 yards (46-N.Moore).
Q407:29 (7:29) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 25 for 1 yard (94-J.Jenkins; 0-R.Smith). Play 3709 (7:29) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 25 for 1 yard (94-J.Jenkins; 0-R.Smith).
Q406:47 (6:47) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 28 for 3 yards (15-M.Green). Play 3731 (6:47) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 28 for 3 yards (15-M.Green).
Q406:01 (6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Turpin. Play 3753 (6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Turpin.
Q405:57 (5:57) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-L.Wester to BAL 36 for 24 yards (27-R.Steward; 89-B.Spann-Ford). Play 3776 (5:57) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-L.Wester to BAL 36 for 24 yards (27-R.Steward; 89-B.Spann-Ford).
Q405:45 (5:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 47 for 17 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 3802 (5:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 47 for 17 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q405:14 (5:14) 22-D.Henry right tackle to DAL 39 for 8 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 3829 (5:14) 22-D.Henry right tackle to DAL 39 for 8 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q404:35 (4:35) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DAL 38 for 1 yard (91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 3851 (4:35) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to DAL 38 for 1 yard (91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q403:57 (3:57) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to DAL 26 for 12 yards (13-C.Downs). PENALTY on BAL-76-C.Vinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 38 - No Play. Play 3873 (3:57) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to DAL 26 for 12 yards (13-C.Downs). PENALTY on BAL-76-C.Vinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 38 - No Play.
Q403:52 (3:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to DAL 33 for 10 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 3906 (3:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to DAL 33 for 10 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q403:11 (3:11) 22-D.Henry left end to DAL 30 for 3 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). DAL-6-D.Ezeiruaku was injured during the play. BAL-77-E.Pocic was injured during the play. Play 3931 (3:11) 22-D.Henry left end to DAL 30 for 3 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). DAL-6-D.Ezeiruaku was injured during the play. BAL-77-E.Pocic was injured during the play.
Q402:36 (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 16 for 14 yards (11-A.Clark). Play 3956 (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 16 for 14 yards (11-A.Clark).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end pushed ob at DAL 16 for no gain (53-D.Winters). ** Injury Update: DAL-6-D.Ezeiruaku has returned to the game. Play 3991 (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end pushed ob at DAL 16 for no gain (53-D.Winters). ** Injury Update: DAL-6-D.Ezeiruaku has returned to the game.
Q401:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 2 for 14 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 4025 (1:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 2 for 14 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q401:47 Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:47. Play 4065 Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:47.
Q401:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play. Play 4050 (1:47) (Shotgun) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play.
Q401:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left [7-R.Gary]. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 7 - No Play. Play 4093 (1:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left [7-R.Gary]. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 7 - No Play.
Q401:43 (1:43) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right tackle to DAL 2 for no gain (21-C.Carson; 99-L.Overton). Play 4127 (1:43) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right tackle to DAL 2 for no gain (21-C.Carson; 99-L.Overton).
Q401:38 Timeout #2 by DAL at 01:38. Play 4163 Timeout #2 by DAL at 01:38.
Q401:38 (1:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 7-R.Bateman. Play 4151 (1:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 7-R.Bateman.
Q401:34 (1:34) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 88-M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4186 (1:34) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 88-M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:30 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 4212 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q401:30 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35. Play 4227 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35.
Q401:30 (1:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 48 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 4244 (1:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 48 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q401:24 (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens. Play 4274 (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens.
Q401:20 (1:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at BAL 38 for 14 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 4297 (1:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at BAL 38 for 14 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q401:14 (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at BAL 29 for 9 yards (29-C.Rivers) [91-T.Hendrickson]. Play 4327 (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at BAL 29 for 9 yards (29-C.Rivers) [91-T.Hendrickson].
Q401:09 (1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 22 for 7 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 4357 (1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 22 for 7 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q400:28 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:28. Play 4391 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:28.
Q400:28 (:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (2-N.Wiggins). PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at BAL 22 - No Play. Play 4379 (:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (2-N.Wiggins). PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at BAL 22 - No Play.
Q400:23 (:23) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (2-N.Wiggins). Play 4420 (:23) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (2-N.Wiggins).
Q400:20 (:20) PENALTY on DAL-86-L.Schoonmaker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 2 - No Play. Play 4443 (:20) PENALTY on DAL-86-L.Schoonmaker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 2 - No Play.
Q400:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 5 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith). DAL-78-T.Steele was injured during the play. Play 4467 (:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 5 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith). DAL-78-T.Steele was injured during the play.
Q400:14 Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:14. Play 4501 Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:14.
Q400:14 (:14) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens. Play 4489 (:14) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens.
Q400:10 (:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 4522 (:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q400:07 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35. Play 4551 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35.
Q400:07 (:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 38 for 27 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 4569 (:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DAL 38 for 27 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q400:01 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:01. Play 4606 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:01.
Q400:01 (:01) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 4594 (:01) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Game seconds remaining 2489
Half seconds remaining 689
Quarter seconds remaining 689
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL -6.59 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2489
Half seconds remaining 689
Quarter seconds remaining 689
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 11
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 52
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2489
Half seconds remaining 689
Quarter seconds remaining 689
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:40 Fourth down · BAL (7:40) 30-R.Eckley punts 48 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 17 yards (46-N.Moore). + Fourth down decision cost BAL 6.84 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.09160434259157861
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.8722222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 460
Half seconds remaining 460
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3376429562677175 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33764/ NA/0.26920 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:15 Penalty · BAL (14:15) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers. PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at BAL 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL -5.05 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2649
Half seconds remaining 849
Quarter seconds remaining 849
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2649
Half seconds remaining 849
Quarter seconds remaining 849
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL -2.24 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2649
Half seconds remaining 849
Quarter seconds remaining 849
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2649
Half seconds remaining 849
Quarter seconds remaining 849
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q306:07 Kick · DAL (6:07) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-K.Jackson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 3.85 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.2245605419480086
Yardline 100 41
Elapsed share 0.6480555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1267
Half seconds remaining 1267
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 367
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.286115426760526 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28612/0.24764/0.24876 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:27 Penalty · BAL (5:27) (No Huddle) PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 22 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL 3.26 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1227
Half seconds remaining 1227
Quarter seconds remaining 327
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1227
Half seconds remaining 1227
Quarter seconds remaining 327
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL 0.73 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1227
Half seconds remaining 1227
Quarter seconds remaining 327
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 1227
Half seconds remaining 1227
Quarter seconds remaining 327
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q113:37 Fourth down · BAL (13:37) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 33 for 5 yards (49-J.Higgins). + Fourth down decision cost BAL 2.05 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -2.735707446093914
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.02305555555555555
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3517
Half seconds remaining 1717
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 817
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5714950882704395 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57150/ NA/0.55098 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:32 Penalty · BAL (4:32) PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL 1.45 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2972
Half seconds remaining 1172
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2972
Half seconds remaining 1172
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL 0.62 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2972
Half seconds remaining 1172
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof open
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2972
Half seconds remaining 1172
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q215:00 Fourth down · DAL (15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-L.Wester. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0.12 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.103638323514327
Yardline 100 50
Elapsed share 0.25
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5241914733950241 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.52419/0.45166/0.52298 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q106:12 Fourth down · BAL (6:12) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 30 for no gain (13-C.Downs). + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.668534376112826
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.1466666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3072
Half seconds remaining 1272
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 372
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5101725022734171 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51017/ NA/0.45334 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:24 Fumble · DAL (9:24) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 44 for no gain (0-R.Smith). FUMBLES (0-R.Smith), and recovers at DAL 43. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.7597840394770998
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.3433333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2364
Half seconds remaining 564
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 564
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3045196051235532 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30452/ NA/0.27865 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DAL 0.27 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL -0.27 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q200:23 Kick · DAL (:23) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.4165152698358505
Yardline 100 20
Elapsed share 0.4936111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1823
Half seconds remaining 23
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 23
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.260674479325013 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25980/0.26067/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DAL 0.32 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q313:15 Fourth down · DAL (13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to BAL 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Humphrey). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.3612972045712881
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.5291666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1695
Half seconds remaining 1695
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 795
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2973738609192345 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29737/0.23153/0.26947 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 26 recorded events Q309:08 Fourth down · BAL (9:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 58 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 33 for 12 yards (21-J.Hawkins). + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.274583788974694
Yardline 100 79
Elapsed share 0.5977777777777777
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1448
Half seconds remaining 1448
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 548
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7040191535662855 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65085/ NA/0.70402 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:07 Fourth down · BAL (13:07) 22-D.Henry left guard to DAL 4 for -3 yards (55-J.Barham). + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.1317375929849232
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.7813888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q405:57 Fourth down · DAL (5:57) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to BAL 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-L.Wester to BAL 36 for 24 yards (27-R.Steward; 89-B.Spann-Ford). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.08169838500720539
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.9008333333333334
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0 Q108:13 Kick · DAL (8:13) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 1.64 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.908638320195965
Yardline 100 10
Elapsed share 0.1130555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q106:06 Penalty · DAL (6:06) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to BAL 27 for 3 yards (2-N.Wiggins; 32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Face Mask, 13 yards, enforced at BAL 27. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:32 Kick · DAL 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Extra point points above expectation DAL 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q104:32 Penalty · BAL 17-B.Aubrey kicks 64 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 1, out of bounds. PENALTY on DAL-17-B.Aubrey, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at BAL 40. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:18 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q212:50 Penalty · BAL (12:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill to BAL 49 for no gain (28-S.Revel; 50-S.James). PENALTY on BAL-54-J.Gwyn, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:23 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q208:47 Penalty · BAL (8:47) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on BAL-54-J.Gwyn, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:48 Kick · BAL (4:48) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 1.69 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BAL
Home team DAL
Away total 28.25
Home total 25.25
Total line 53.5
Retractable 1
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.5591219281182299
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.42
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 28.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q310:40 Fumble · DAL (10:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to BAL 24 for -1 yards (98-T.Jones). FUMBLES (98-T.Jones), RECOVERED by BAL-32-T.Simpson at BAL 25. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. + Fumble recoveries above expectation DAL 0.27 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL -0.27 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q307:04 Penalty · DAL (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens to BAL 24 for 20 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:44 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q302:55 Penalty · DAL (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at BAL 33 for 19 yards (0-R.Smith; 29-C.Rivers). PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 33. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:42 Kick · DAL 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Extra point points above expectation DAL 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q409:42 Penalty · BAL 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to BAL 9, out of bounds. PENALTY on DAL-17-B.Aubrey, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at BAL 40. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:57 Penalty · BAL (3:57) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to DAL 26 for 12 yards (13-C.Downs). PENALTY on BAL-76-C.Vinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:47 Penalty · BAL (1:47) (Shotgun) 51-E.Jones reported in as eligible. PENALTY on BAL-74-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:47 Penalty · BAL (1:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left [7-R.Gary]. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 7 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:30 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q400:28 Penalty · DAL (:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (2-N.Wiggins). PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at BAL 22 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:20 Penalty · DAL (:20) PENALTY on DAL-86-L.Schoonmaker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:10 Kick · DAL (:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DAL 0.32 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q400:01 Kick · BAL (:01) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Field goal points above expectation BAL 1.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1105be2708fb25aaba7e9e60d6d5908e88d279a0edf59931f27cc934e639517eModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 37a374c481903fb4fc532f7bdc3ba77d0cde5b7b942def7c6f3b892e087e8f5c
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Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 28, 2026, 12:17 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8225461456322476 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82255/0.77513/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 357
Half seconds remaining 357
Quarter seconds remaining 357
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6515107642227075 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62833/ NA/0.65151 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 3193
Half seconds remaining 1393
Quarter seconds remaining 493
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4762389655910641 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47624/0.45988/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DAL 0.32 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
4
Game seconds remaining 2088
Half seconds remaining 288
Quarter seconds remaining 288
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7642824223332231 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76428/0.74737/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BAL 1.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled