Skip to content
Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: WAS by 1.5; actual result: WAS by 2.
The 0.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 774 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty count: 17 versus 12.5 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 460 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: SEA by 8.5; actual result: WAS by 2. The difference was 10.5 points.
2,969 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Seattle Seahawks by 8.5
Final margin Washington Commanders by 2
Difference 10.5 points
Washington Commanders covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
2,969 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (40.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score WAS by 1.5
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Washington Commanders chance to win during the game 156 preplay estimates across 190 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 34 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
WAS Observed ruling consequence 0.23 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 0.53 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 5 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 05:16 Recorded game event
Washington Commanders · Play 3132 (5:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SEA 49 for 20 yards. Seattle challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (24-R.Thomas).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 5.2 percentage points across this play.
Q1 · 04:26 Recorded game event
Washington Commanders · Play 783 (4:26) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 48 - No Play.
A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified. Estimated chance to win moved 0.1 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 04:09 Recorded game event
Seattle Seahawks · Play 4262 (4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 190 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 190 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 1. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 37 for 36 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 40 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 1. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 37 for 36 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q114:55 (14:55) 8-J.Price left tackle to SEA 48 for 11 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 68 (14:55) 8-J.Price left tackle to SEA 48 for 11 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q114:18 (14:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (2-A.Robertson). Play 90 (14:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (2-A.Robertson).
Q114:11 (14:11) 8-J.Price right tackle to SEA 44 for -4 yards (45-K.Chaisson). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 110 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q105:13 Penalty · WAS (5:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 3-S.Diggs (29-J.Jobe). PENALTY on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at WAS 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 3.84 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3008
Half seconds remaining 1208
Quarter seconds remaining 308
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 30be4e6da445d997a452da4c59e600bd19e2779368e4dbd4057d1c07bfdc6317sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5490c60a6d2bf2afc01c7dc0a13dd1f75bdec470381e683a9f2ac52a02db8acbnflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1cc443d2167df1241f78d8ad97cdbb61ccc44dbec518ec76e09f6fcf2b418aafWAS by 2
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
774 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 460 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Carl Cheffers Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 79 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.4 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 50.6 yd per game. Away teams: 6.6 / 54.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Carl Cheffers; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Washington Commanders · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Washington Commanders · Opponent penalties Opponent SEA was charged 8 penalties for 53 yards.
Washington Commanders · Non offensive touchdowns Recorded 1 defensive or special-teams touchdowns.
Seattle Seahawks · Opponent penalties Opponent WAS was charged 9 penalties for 57 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 156 model estimates across 190 recorded game entries.
34 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (190 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence -0.47 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence -0.61 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 3.84 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 2.62 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence -1.67 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence -0.63 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 2.61 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 0.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 2.57 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 0.8 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
SEA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73509/0.69249/0.74756 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22348/ NA/0.24593 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 2.14 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55000/ NA/0.52859 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42478/0.39001/0.45348 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27461/ NA/0.30408 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64386/ NA/0.67352 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55607/0.52213/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 1.18 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47313/0.46128/0.45110 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49341/0.55258/0.49055 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 1.85 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53499/ NA/0.51650 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57674/ NA/0.61781 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28945/ NA/0.29862 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60763/0.57257/0.67424 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44542/0.40310/0.37845 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46826/0.51601/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
WAS Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.26 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
SEA Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.26 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
WAS Field goal points above expectation 1.33 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 51st percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
SEA Field goal points above expectation 1.13 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
WAS Extra point points above expectation -0.44 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 83rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
SEA Extra point points above expectation 0.16 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 63rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
WAS Charted drops 3 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SEA Charted drops 2 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Interception worthy throws 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SEA Interception worthy throws 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SEA QB attributed sacks Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Charting tag missing
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Catchable targets 25 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SEA Catchable targets 39 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Contested targets 11 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SEA Contested targets 12 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
WAS Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SEA Receiver created receptions 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
SEA Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.66 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.18 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.54 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.64 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
69 of 69 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 69 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.1 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
69 of 69 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 69 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.51 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 49 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 49 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 28.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 10:35 Recorded game event
Washington Commanders · Play 3858 (10:35) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (29-J.Jobe, 30-A.Finley). PENALTY on SEA-30-A.Finley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 37 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on SEA awarded WAS a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 9.6 percentage points across this play.
Show 1 more play Q4 · 04:24 Recorded game event
Seattle Seahawks · Play 4202 (4:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed (29-R.Douglas, 39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-22-R.Shaheed has returned to the game. PENALTY on SEA, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 7.1 percentage points across this play.
Play 118
(14:11) 8-J.Price right tackle to SEA 44 for -4 yards (45-K.Chaisson).
Q113:30 (13:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at WAS 47 for 9 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 140 (13:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at WAS 47 for 9 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q112:51 (12:51) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 47 - No Play. Play 170 (12:51) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 47 - No Play.
Q112:36 (12:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback. Play 194 (12:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
Q112:28 (12:28) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt to WAS 27 for 7 yards (13-E.Jones) [91-B.Murphy]. Play 212 (12:28) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt to WAS 27 for 7 yards (13-E.Jones) [91-B.Murphy].
Q111:52 (11:52) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to WAS 26 for -1 yards (32-D.Thomas). Play 244 (11:52) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to WAS 26 for -1 yards (32-D.Thomas).
Q111:20 (11:20) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 3-S.Diggs. Play 266 (11:20) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 3-S.Diggs.
Q111:17 (11:17) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to SEA 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 20 for 6 yards (18-T.Owens; 51-A.Kaho). Play 289 (11:17) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to SEA 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 20 for 6 yards (18-T.Owens; 51-A.Kaho).
Q111:06 (11:06) 8-J.Price left end to SEA 22 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles, 2-A.Robertson). FUMBLES (2-A.Robertson), RECOVERED by WAS-97-T.Settle at SEA 21. Play 315 (11:06) 8-J.Price left end to SEA 22 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles, 2-A.Robertson). FUMBLES (2-A.Robertson), RECOVERED by WAS-97-T.Settle at SEA 21.
Q111:00 (11:00) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 12 for 9 yards (29-J.Jobe; 32-D.Thomas). Play 373 (11:00) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 12 for 9 yards (29-J.Jobe; 32-D.Thomas).
Q110:26 (10:26) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 9 for 3 yards (58-D.Hall). Play 401 (10:26) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 9 for 3 yards (58-D.Hall).
Q109:50 (9:50) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to SEA 6 for 3 yards (32-D.Thomas; 13-E.Jones). Play 423 (9:50) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to SEA 6 for 3 yards (32-D.Thomas; 13-E.Jones).
Q109:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 1-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 445 (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 1-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q109:08 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 471 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q109:08 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 20. Play 486 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 20.
Q109:08 (9:08) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right. Play 510 (9:08) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right.
Q109:02 (9:02) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson right guard to SEA 22 for 2 yards (98-O.Oweh; 39-J.Reaves). Play 533 (9:02) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson right guard to SEA 22 for 2 yards (98-O.Oweh; 39-J.Reaves).
Q108:20 (8:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 36-G.Holani to SEA 28 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 52-S.Styles). Play 555 (8:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 36-G.Holani to SEA 28 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 52-S.Styles).
Q107:37 (7:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to WAS 28, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. Play 580 (7:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to WAS 28, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
Q107:29 (7:29) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Yankoff [0-D.Lawrence]. Play 599 (7:29) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Yankoff [0-D.Lawrence].
Q107:26 (7:26) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to WAS 28 for no gain (91-B.Murphy). Play 629 (7:26) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to WAS 28 for no gain (91-B.Murphy).
Q106:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at WAS 39 for 11 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 651 (6:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at WAS 39 for 11 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q106:14 (6:14) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play. Play 681 (6:14) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
Q105:53 (5:53) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left end to WAS 36 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence). Play 705 (5:53) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left end to WAS 36 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence).
Q105:13 (5:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 3-S.Diggs (29-J.Jobe). PENALTY on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at WAS 36 - No Play. Play 727 (5:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 3-S.Diggs (29-J.Jobe). PENALTY on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at WAS 36 - No Play.
Q105:08 (5:08) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to SEA 48 for 2 yards (90-J.Reed; 13-E.Jones). Play 761 (5:08) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to SEA 48 for 2 yards (90-J.Reed; 13-E.Jones).
Q104:26 (4:26) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 48 - No Play. Play 783 (4:26) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 48 - No Play.
Q104:17 (4:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Brown. Play 822 (4:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Brown.
Q104:12 (4:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 80-C.Yankoff to WAS 49 for 2 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 857 (4:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 80-C.Yankoff to WAS 49 for 2 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q103:33 (3:33) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to SEA 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Play 887 (3:33) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to SEA 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
Q103:25 (3:25) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 21 for 11 yards (54-L.Chenal). Play 907 (3:25) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 21 for 11 yards (54-L.Chenal).
Q102:50 (2:50) 23-E.Wilson right guard to SEA 21 for no gain (99-J.Kinlaw; 90-C.Omenihu). Play 939 (2:50) 23-E.Wilson right guard to SEA 21 for no gain (99-J.Kinlaw; 90-C.Omenihu).
Q102:09 (2:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 41 for 20 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 961 (2:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 41 for 20 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q101:34 (1:34) 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 47 for 6 yards (54-L.Chenal; 2-A.Robertson). Play 986 (1:34) 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 47 for 6 yards (54-L.Chenal; 2-A.Robertson).
Q100:54 (:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 21 for 32 yards (45-K.Chaisson). Play 1008 (:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 21 for 32 yards (45-K.Chaisson).
Q100:05 (:05) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 38-B.Russell to WAS 1 for 20 yards (20-Q.Martin) [98-O.Oweh]. Play 1033 (:05) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 38-B.Russell to WAS 1 for 20 yards (20-Q.Martin) [98-O.Oweh].
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1058 Q215:00 (15:00) 23-E.Wilson right end to WAS 3 for -2 yards (54-L.Chenal). Play 1078 (15:00) 23-E.Wilson right end to WAS 3 for -2 yards (54-L.Chenal).
Q214:22 (14:22) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (20-Q.Martin). PENALTY on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 3 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. Play 1100 (14:22) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (20-Q.Martin). PENALTY on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 3 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q214:17 (14:17) 36-G.Holani left guard to WAS 1 for no gain (99-J.Kinlaw; 98-O.Oweh). Play 1139 (14:17) 36-G.Holani left guard to WAS 1 for no gain (99-J.Kinlaw; 98-O.Oweh).
Q213:31 (13:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1161 (13:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q213:27 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 1187 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q213:27 5-J.Myers kicks 59 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 6. 1-R.White ran ob at WAS 44 for 38 yards (38-B.Russell). Play 1202 5-J.Myers kicks 59 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 6. 1-R.White ran ob at WAS 44 for 38 yards (38-B.Russell).
Q213:20 (13:20) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 47 for 3 yards (91-B.Murphy; 0-D.Lawrence). Play 1237 (13:20) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 47 for 3 yards (91-B.Murphy; 0-D.Lawrence).
Q212:37 (12:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-87-J.Bates, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 47 - No Play. Play 1259 (12:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-87-J.Bates, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 47 - No Play.
Q212:16 (12:16) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end to WAS 43 for 1 yard (28-N.Pritchett; 0-D.Lawrence). Play 1283 (12:16) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end to WAS 43 for 1 yard (28-N.Pritchett; 0-D.Lawrence).
Q211:34 (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Diggs. Play 1305 (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Diggs.
Q211:29 (11:29) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to SEA 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 21 for 10 yards (51-A.Kaho). Play 1328 (11:29) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to SEA 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 21 for 10 yards (51-A.Kaho).
Q211:19 (11:19) PENALTY on SEA-88-A.Barner, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 21 - No Play. Play 1354 (11:19) PENALTY on SEA-88-A.Barner, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 21 - No Play.
Q211:19 (11:19) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 81-E.Saubert [45-K.Chaisson]. Play 1385 (11:19) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 81-E.Saubert [45-K.Chaisson].
Q211:14 (11:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 36-G.Holani to SEA 22 for 6 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 1408 (11:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 36-G.Holani to SEA 22 for 6 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q210:33 (10:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp (2-A.Robertson). Play 1433 (10:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp (2-A.Robertson).
Q210:28 (10:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane. Play 1456 (10:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
Q210:21 (10:21) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 46 for 6 yards (24-R.Thomas; 7-U.Nwosu). Play 1476 (10:21) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 46 for 6 yards (24-R.Thomas; 7-U.Nwosu).
Q209:52 (9:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 48 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe). Play 1498 (9:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 48 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe).
Q209:15 (9:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 14-A.Williams to SEA 39 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones; 32-D.Thomas). Play 1523 (9:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 14-A.Williams to SEA 39 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones; 32-D.Thomas).
Q208:38 (8:38) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left end to SEA 33 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe; 91-B.Murphy). Play 1548 (8:38) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left end to SEA 33 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe; 91-B.Murphy).
Q208:06 Timeout #1 by SEA at 08:06. Play 1587 Timeout #1 by SEA at 08:06.
Q208:06 (8:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 3-S.Diggs (7-U.Nwosu). Play 1575 (8:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 3-S.Diggs (7-U.Nwosu).
Q208:03 (8:03) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 83-J.Lane pushed ob at SEA 12 for 21 yards (30-A.Finley). Play 1605 (8:03) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 83-J.Lane pushed ob at SEA 12 for 21 yards (30-A.Finley).
Q207:31 (7:31) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to SEA 11 for 1 yard (91-B.Murphy; 58-D.Hall). Play 1635 (7:31) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to SEA 11 for 1 yard (91-B.Murphy; 58-D.Hall).
Q206:51 (6:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 13-T.Burks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-L.Williams]. Play 1657 (6:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 13-T.Burks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-L.Williams].
Q206:47 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 1683 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q206:47 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 20. Play 1698 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 20.
Q206:47 (6:47) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 27 for 7 yards (48-J.Josephs; 20-Q.Martin). WAS-54-L.Chenal was injured during the play. Play 1727 (6:47) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 27 for 7 yards (48-J.Josephs; 20-Q.Martin). WAS-54-L.Chenal was injured during the play.
Q206:26 (6:26) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 46 for 19 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 1752 (6:26) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 46 for 19 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q205:45 (5:45) 23-E.Wilson right end to SEA 42 for -4 yards (48-J.Josephs). Play 1789 (5:45) 23-E.Wilson right end to SEA 42 for -4 yards (48-J.Josephs).
Q205:01 (5:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (2-A.Robertson). Play 1811 (5:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (2-A.Robertson).
Q204:57 (4:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp to WAS 42 for 16 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 1834 (4:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp to WAS 42 for 16 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q204:16 (4:16) 36-G.Holani left tackle to WAS 37 for 5 yards (98-O.Oweh; 56-K.Medrano). Play 1859 (4:16) 36-G.Holani left tackle to WAS 37 for 5 yards (98-O.Oweh; 56-K.Medrano).
Q203:39 (3:39) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 15-T.Horton to WAS 20 for 17 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 1881 (3:39) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 15-T.Horton to WAS 20 for 17 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q202:57 (2:57) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 5 for 15 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 1906 (2:57) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 5 for 15 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q202:07 (2:07) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson left end to WAS 2 for 3 yards (96-S.Tuttle). Play 1931 (2:07) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson left end to WAS 2 for 3 yards (96-S.Tuttle).
Q202:00 (2:00) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (2-A.Robertson). Play 1955 (2:00) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (2-A.Robertson).
Q201:56 (1:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba [99-J.Kinlaw]. Play 1985 (1:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba [99-J.Kinlaw].
Q201:51 (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner (39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. Play 2008 (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner (39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano].
Q201:40 (1:40) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 82-B.Sinnott. WAS-82-B.Sinnott was injured during the play. Play 2031 (1:40) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 82-B.Sinnott. WAS-82-B.Sinnott was injured during the play.
Q201:33 Timeout #1 by WAS at 01:33. Play 2066 Timeout #1 by WAS at 01:33.
Q201:33 (1:33) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 4 for 2 yards (32-D.Thomas). ** Injury Update: SEA-3-N.Emmanwori has returned to the game. Play 2054 (1:33) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 4 for 2 yards (32-D.Thomas). ** Injury Update: SEA-3-N.Emmanwori has returned to the game.
Q201:29 Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:29. Play 2098 Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:29.
Q201:29 (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at WAS 2 for -2 yards (58-D.Hall). Play 2086 (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at WAS 2 for -2 yards (58-D.Hall).
Q201:24 Timeout #3 by SEA at 01:24. Play 2128 Timeout #3 by SEA at 01:24.
Q201:24 (1:24) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at WAS 41 for 13 yards (82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-82-B.Sinnott has returned to the game. Play 2116 (1:24) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at WAS 41 for 13 yards (82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-82-B.Sinnott has returned to the game.
Q201:13 (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 8-J.Price (52-S.Styles). Play 2154 (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 8-J.Price (52-S.Styles).
Q201:08 (1:08) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-11-J.Smith-Njigba, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 41 - No Play. Play 2180 (1:08) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-11-J.Smith-Njigba, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 41 - No Play.
Q201:08 (1:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at WAS 43 for 3 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 2204 (1:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at WAS 43 for 3 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q201:04 (1:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to WAS 39 for 4 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 2234 (1:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to WAS 39 for 4 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q200:57 Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:57. Play 2271 Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:57.
Q200:57 (:57) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 2259 (:57) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q200:52 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the WAS 35. Play 2286 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the WAS 35.
Q200:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SEA 47 for 18 yards [0-D.Lawrence]. Play 2303 (:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SEA 47 for 18 yards [0-D.Lawrence].
Q200:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left. Play 2343 (:47) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left.
Q200:41 (:41) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at SEA 41 for 6 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams]. Play 2366 (:41) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at SEA 41 for 6 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams].
Q200:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to SEA 39 for 2 yards (91-B.Murphy). Play 2410 (:33) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to SEA 39 for 2 yards (91-B.Murphy).
Q200:03 Timeout #3 by WAS at 00:03. Play 2444 Timeout #3 by WAS at 00:03.
Q200:03 (:03) 19-D.Stevens 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 2432 (:03) 19-D.Stevens 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2459 Q315:00 5-J.Myers kicks 64 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 1. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 34 for 33 yards (1-J.Neal). Play 2477 5-J.Myers kicks 64 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 1. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 34 for 33 yards (1-J.Neal).
Q314:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 42 for 8 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). ** Injury Update: WAS-63-L.Patrick has returned to the game. Play 2510 (14:54) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 42 for 8 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). ** Injury Update: WAS-63-L.Patrick has returned to the game.
Q314:16 (14:16) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 42 for no gain (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 2535 (14:16) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 42 for no gain (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q313:37 (13:37) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.Williams (13-E.Jones). Play 2557 (13:37) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.Williams (13-E.Jones).
Q313:30 (13:30) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Play 2583 (13:30) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
Q313:24 (13:24) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 8-J.Price to SEA 25 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano). Play 2603 (13:24) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 8-J.Price to SEA 25 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano).
Q312:49 (12:49) 8-J.Price right end pushed ob at SEA 32 for 7 yards (35-P.Butler). Play 2635 (12:49) 8-J.Price right end pushed ob at SEA 32 for 7 yards (35-P.Butler).
Q312:10 (12:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 52-S.Styles (97-T.Settle) at SEA 42. 52-S.Styles to SEA 43 for -1 yards (36-G.Holani). Play 2662 (12:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 52-S.Styles (97-T.Settle) at SEA 42. 52-S.Styles to SEA 43 for -1 yards (36-G.Holani).
Q312:02 (12:02) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 32 for 11 yards (32-D.Thomas). Play 2689 (12:02) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 32 for 11 yards (32-D.Thomas).
Q311:27 (11:27) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 13-T.Burks to SEA 30 for 2 yards (30-A.Finley). Play 2714 (11:27) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 13-T.Burks to SEA 30 for 2 yards (30-A.Finley).
Q310:50 (10:50) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2739 (10:50) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q310:43 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 2765 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q310:43 19-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 4, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-19-D.Stevens, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at SEA 40. Play 2780 19-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 4, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-19-D.Stevens, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at SEA 40.
Q310:43 (10:43) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 41 for 1 yard (56-K.Medrano; 48-J.Josephs). Play 2814 (10:43) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 41 for 1 yard (56-K.Medrano; 48-J.Josephs).
Q310:07 (10:07) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to SEA 46 for 5 yards (56-K.Medrano). Play 2836 (10:07) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to SEA 46 for 5 yards (56-K.Medrano).
Q309:25 (9:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 49 for 5 yards (92-D.Armstrong). PENALTY on WAS-0-M.Sainristil, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 49. Play 2861 (9:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 49 for 5 yards (92-D.Armstrong). PENALTY on WAS-0-M.Sainristil, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 49.
Q308:58 (8:58) 8-J.Price right end to WAS 44 for no gain (97-T.Settle). Play 2899 (8:58) 8-J.Price right end to WAS 44 for no gain (97-T.Settle).
Q308:17 (8:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 22-R.Shaheed to WAS 39 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 2921 (8:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 22-R.Shaheed to WAS 39 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q307:37 (7:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 27 for 12 yards (35-P.Butler). Play 2946 (7:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 27 for 12 yards (35-P.Butler).
Q306:52 (6:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 15-T.Horton to WAS 13 for 14 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 2976 (6:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 15-T.Horton to WAS 13 for 14 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q306:14 (6:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-E.Saubert to WAS 1 for 12 yards (52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (52-S.Styles), and recovers at WAS -1. TOUCHDOWN. Play 3001 (6:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-E.Saubert to WAS 1 for 12 yards (52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (52-S.Styles), and recovers at WAS -1. TOUCHDOWN.
Q306:05 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 3027 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q306:05 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 0. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 26 for 26 yards (38-B.Russell). ** Injury Update: WAS-1-R.White has returned to the game. Play 3042 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 0. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 26 for 26 yards (38-B.Russell). ** Injury Update: WAS-1-R.White has returned to the game.
Q305:59 (5:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin [58-D.Hall]. Play 3072 (5:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin [58-D.Hall].
Q305:55 (5:55) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right tackle to WAS 31 for 5 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 3110 (5:55) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right tackle to WAS 31 for 5 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q305:16 (5:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SEA 49 for 20 yards. Seattle challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (24-R.Thomas). Play 3132 (5:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SEA 49 for 20 yards. Seattle challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (24-R.Thomas).
Q305:11 (5:11) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to SEA 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Play 3162 (5:11) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to SEA 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
Q305:04 (5:04) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 16 for 1 yard (98-O.Oweh; 94-D.Payne). Play 3222 (5:04) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 16 for 1 yard (98-O.Oweh; 94-D.Payne).
Q304:30 (4:30) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba. Play 3244 (4:30) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.
Q304:25 (4:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 22-R.Shaheed. Play 3267 (4:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 22-R.Shaheed.
Q304:21 (4:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to WAS 44, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane. Play 3290 (4:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to WAS 44, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
Q304:15 (4:15) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 87-J.Bates pushed ob at SEA 47 for 9 yards (32-D.Thomas). Play 3310 (4:15) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 87-J.Bates pushed ob at SEA 47 for 9 yards (32-D.Thomas).
Q303:39 (3:39) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to SEA 46 for 1 yard (99-L.Williams; 90-J.Reed). Play 3340 (3:39) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to SEA 46 for 1 yard (99-L.Williams; 90-J.Reed).
Q302:57 (2:57) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 49 for -3 yards (99-L.Williams, 90-J.Reed). Penalty on WAS, Illegal Shift, declined. Play 3362 (2:57) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 49 for -3 yards (99-L.Williams, 90-J.Reed). Penalty on WAS, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q302:34 (2:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 1-R.White to SEA 44 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas; 13-E.Jones) [0-D.Lawrence]. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play. Play 3395 (2:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 1-R.White to SEA 44 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas; 13-E.Jones) [0-D.Lawrence]. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play.
Q302:07 (2:07) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (90-J.Reed; 30-A.Finley). Play 3431 (2:07) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (90-J.Reed; 30-A.Finley).
Q301:27 (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.McLaurin. Play 3453 (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.McLaurin.
Q301:22 (1:22) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback. Play 3476 (1:22) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
Q301:12 (1:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 36-G.Holani to SEA 29 for 9 yards (56-K.Medrano). Play 3497 (1:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 36-G.Holani to SEA 29 for 9 yards (56-K.Medrano).
Q300:34 (:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-11-J.Smith-Njigba, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at SEA 29 - No Play. Play 3522 (:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-11-J.Smith-Njigba, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at SEA 29 - No Play.
Q300:15 (:15) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner pushed ob at SEA 37 for 12 yards (48-J.Josephs). Play 3546 (:15) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner pushed ob at SEA 37 for 12 yards (48-J.Josephs).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3576 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 42 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles). Play 3596 (15:00) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 42 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles).
Q414:19 (14:19) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 22-R.Shaheed (45-K.Chaisson). PENALTY on WAS-45-K.Chaisson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 42 - No Play. Play 3618 (14:19) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 22-R.Shaheed (45-K.Chaisson). PENALTY on WAS-45-K.Chaisson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 42 - No Play.
Q414:08 (14:08) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 36-G.Holani to WAS 30 for 13 yards (45-K.Chaisson). Play 3664 (14:08) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 36-G.Holani to WAS 30 for 13 yards (45-K.Chaisson).
Q413:26 (13:26) (Shotgun) 11-J.Smith-Njigba pass short right to 36-G.Holani to WAS 16 for 14 yards (98-O.Oweh; 35-P.Butler) [52-S.Styles]. Play 3689 (13:26) (Shotgun) 11-J.Smith-Njigba pass short right to 36-G.Holani to WAS 16 for 14 yards (98-O.Oweh; 35-P.Butler) [52-S.Styles].
Q412:37 (12:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 11 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 3714 (12:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 11 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q411:57 (11:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3739 (11:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q411:53 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 3765 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q411:53 5-J.Myers kicks 42 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 23, short of landing zone. PENALTY on SEA-5-J.Myers, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at WAS 40. Play 3780 5-J.Myers kicks 42 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 23, short of landing zone. PENALTY on SEA-5-J.Myers, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at WAS 40.
Q411:53 (11:53) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 42 for 2 yards (58-D.Hall; 32-D.Thomas). Play 3816 (11:53) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 42 for 2 yards (58-D.Hall; 32-D.Thomas).
Q411:17 (11:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at WAS 37 for -5 yards (99-L.Williams). Play 3838 (11:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at WAS 37 for -5 yards (99-L.Williams).
Q410:35 (10:35) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (29-J.Jobe, 30-A.Finley). PENALTY on SEA-30-A.Finley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 37 - No Play. Play 3858 (10:35) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (29-J.Jobe, 30-A.Finley). PENALTY on SEA-30-A.Finley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 37 - No Play.
Q410:29 (10:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 44 for 4 yards (24-R.Thomas; 0-D.Lawrence). Play 3904 (10:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 44 for 4 yards (24-R.Thomas; 0-D.Lawrence).
Q409:53 (9:53) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 46 for -2 yards (0-D.Lawrence, 90-J.Reed). Play 3929 (9:53) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 46 for -2 yards (0-D.Lawrence, 90-J.Reed).
Q409:19 (9:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 39 for 7 yards (28-N.Pritchett). Play 3951 (9:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 39 for 7 yards (28-N.Pritchett).
Q408:40 (8:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe). Play 3976 (8:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).
Q407:59 (7:59) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 32 for 2 yards (32-D.Thomas). Play 4001 (7:59) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 32 for 2 yards (32-D.Thomas).
Q407:20 (7:20) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 22 for 10 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 4023 (7:20) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 22 for 10 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q406:37 (6:37) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 20 for 2 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 4048 (6:37) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 20 for 2 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q406:01 (6:01) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to SEA 20 for no gain (91-B.Murphy; 7-U.Nwosu). Play 4075 (6:01) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to SEA 20 for no gain (91-B.Murphy; 7-U.Nwosu).
Q405:22 (5:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right tackle to SEA 18 for 2 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 4097 (5:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right tackle to SEA 18 for 2 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q404:39 (4:39) 19-D.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 4119 (4:39) 19-D.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q404:34 19-D.Stevens kicks 62 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 3. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for 27 yards (35-P.Butler). SEA-22-R.Shaheed was injured during the play. Play 4139 19-D.Stevens kicks 62 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 3. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for 27 yards (35-P.Butler). SEA-22-R.Shaheed was injured during the play.
Q404:30 (4:30) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at WAS 44 for 26 yards. Play 4172 (4:30) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at WAS 44 for 26 yards.
Q404:24 (4:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed (29-R.Douglas, 39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-22-R.Shaheed has returned to the game. PENALTY on SEA, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play. Play 4202 (4:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed (29-R.Douglas, 39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-22-R.Shaheed has returned to the game. PENALTY on SEA, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play.
Q404:17 (4:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 8-J.Price (29-R.Douglas) [98-O.Oweh]. Play 4236 (4:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 8-J.Price (29-R.Douglas) [98-O.Oweh].
Q404:09 (4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Play 4262 (4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q403:57 19-D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 4301 19-D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q403:57 19-D.Stevens kicks 62 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 3. 15-T.Horton to SEA 32 for 29 yards (48-J.Josephs; 51-A.Kaho). Play 4316 19-D.Stevens kicks 62 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 3. 15-T.Horton to SEA 32 for 29 yards (48-J.Josephs; 51-A.Kaho).
Q403:52 (3:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 4339 (3:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q403:46 (3:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 39 for 11 yards (52-S.Styles). Play 4374 (3:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 39 for 11 yards (52-S.Styles).
Q403:23 (3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 24 for 15 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 4399 (3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 24 for 15 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q403:00 (3:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton ran ob at WAS 7 for 17 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 4424 (3:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton ran ob at WAS 7 for 17 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q402:55 (2:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4459 (2:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q402:51 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 4485 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q402:51 5-J.Myers kicks 63 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 2. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 33 for 31 yards (38-B.Russell). Play 4500 5-J.Myers kicks 63 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 2. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 33 for 31 yards (38-B.Russell).
Q402:46 (2:46) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 34 for 1 yard (91-B.Murphy; 13-E.Jones). Play 4523 (2:46) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 34 for 1 yard (91-B.Murphy; 13-E.Jones).
Q402:00 (2:00) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Williams [0-D.Lawrence]. Play 4545 (2:00) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Williams [0-D.Lawrence].
Q401:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to SEA 47 for 19 yards (29-J.Jobe). Play 4575 (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to SEA 47 for 19 yards (29-J.Jobe).
Q401:47 Timeout #1 by SEA at 01:47. Play 4609 Timeout #1 by SEA at 01:47.
Q401:47 (1:47) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 1-R.White up the middle to SEA 47 for no gain (21-D.Witherspoon; 90-J.Reed). Play 4597 (1:47) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 1-R.White up the middle to SEA 47 for no gain (21-D.Witherspoon; 90-J.Reed).
Q401:42 Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:42. Play 4640 Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:42.
Q401:42 (1:42) 1-R.White right tackle to SEA 44 for 3 yards (90-J.Reed; 13-E.Jones). Play 4628 (1:42) 1-R.White right tackle to SEA 44 for 3 yards (90-J.Reed; 13-E.Jones).
Q401:36 Timeout #3 by SEA at 01:36. Play 4669 Timeout #3 by SEA at 01:36.
Q401:36 (1:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right end to SEA 35 for 9 yards (29-J.Jobe). Play 4657 (1:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right end to SEA 35 for 9 yards (29-J.Jobe).
Q400:52 (:52) 8-M.Mariota kneels to SEA 36 for -1 yards. Play 4686 (:52) 8-M.Mariota kneels to SEA 36 for -1 yards.
Q400:32 (:32) 8-M.Mariota kneels to SEA 37 for -1 yards. Play 4708 (:32) 8-M.Mariota kneels to SEA 37 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 3008
Half seconds remaining 1208
Quarter seconds remaining 308
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 2.62 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3008
Half seconds remaining 1208
Quarter seconds remaining 308
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 13
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3008
Half seconds remaining 1208
Quarter seconds remaining 308
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:19 Penalty · SEA (11:19) PENALTY on SEA-88-A.Barner, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 2.61 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 15
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2479
Half seconds remaining 679
Quarter seconds remaining 679
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 79
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2479
Half seconds remaining 679
Quarter seconds remaining 679
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 0.59 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 15
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2479
Half seconds remaining 679
Quarter seconds remaining 679
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 79
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2479
Half seconds remaining 679
Quarter seconds remaining 679
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q300:34 Penalty · SEA (:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-11-J.Smith-Njigba, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at SEA 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 2.57 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 75
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 934
Half seconds remaining 934
Quarter seconds remaining 34
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 934
Half seconds remaining 934
Quarter seconds remaining 34
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 0.8 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 75
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 934
Half seconds remaining 934
Quarter seconds remaining 34
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 934
Half seconds remaining 934
Quarter seconds remaining 34
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q107:37 Fourth down · SEA (7:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to WAS 28, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 2.14 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -5.195765366749523
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.1230555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3157
Half seconds remaining 1357
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 457
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5500047011811405 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55000/ NA/0.52859 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:30 Fourth down · WAS (13:30) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 1.85 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -1.040879640150346
Yardline 100 58
Elapsed share 0.525
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1710
Half seconds remaining 1710
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 810
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5349875350814643 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53499/ NA/0.51650 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:37 Penalty · WAS (12:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-87-J.Bates, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS -1.67 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 12
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2557
Half seconds remaining 757
Quarter seconds remaining 757
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 7
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2557
Half seconds remaining 757
Quarter seconds remaining 757
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS -0.63 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 12
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2557
Half seconds remaining 757
Quarter seconds remaining 757
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 7
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2557
Half seconds remaining 757
Quarter seconds remaining 757
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q106:14 Penalty · WAS (6:14) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS -0.47 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 15
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3074
Half seconds remaining 1274
Quarter seconds remaining 374
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3074
Half seconds remaining 1274
Quarter seconds remaining 374
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS -0.61 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 15
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3074
Half seconds remaining 1274
Quarter seconds remaining 374
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3074
Half seconds remaining 1274
Quarter seconds remaining 374
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q112:51 Penalty · SEA (12:51) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 0.23 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 52
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3471
Half seconds remaining 1671
Quarter seconds remaining 771
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3471
Half seconds remaining 1671
Quarter seconds remaining 771
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 0.53 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 52
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3471
Half seconds remaining 1671
Quarter seconds remaining 771
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3471
Half seconds remaining 1671
Quarter seconds remaining 771
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:36 Fourth down · SEA (12:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -7.243222206212796
Yardline 100 52
Elapsed share 0.04
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3456
Half seconds remaining 1656
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 756
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7475561602976766 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73509/0.69249/0.74756 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q111:17 Fourth down · WAS (11:17) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to SEA 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 20 for 6 yards (18-T.Owens; 51-A.Kaho). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -6.634533694880863
Yardline 100 74
Elapsed share 0.06194444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3377
Half seconds remaining 1577
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 677
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2459303145698623 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22348/ NA/0.24593 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:33 Fourth down · WAS (3:33) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to SEA 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -3.961936140549271
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.1908333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2913
Half seconds remaining 1113
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 213
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4534847773260761 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42478/0.39001/0.45348 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:29 Fourth down · WAS (11:29) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to SEA 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 21 for 10 yards (51-A.Kaho). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -2.47346924807146
Yardline 100 57
Elapsed share 0.3086111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2489
Half seconds remaining 689
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 689
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3040794365561331 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27461/ NA/0.30408 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 98 recorded events Q210:28 Fourth down · SEA (10:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -2.311378133600324
Yardline 100 78
Elapsed share 0.3255555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2428
Half seconds remaining 628
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 628
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6735232754895518 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64386/ NA/0.67352 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:51 Fourth down · SEA (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner (39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -1.301346498920122
Yardline 100 2
Elapsed share 0.4691666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q200:03 Kick · WAS (:03) 19-D.Stevens 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -1.154190805142578
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.4991666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q305:11 Fourth down · WAS (5:11) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to SEA 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -0.5978721876226448
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.6636111111111112
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q304:21 Fourth down · SEA (4:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to WAS 44, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -0.5655628570776433
Yardline 100 84
Elapsed share 0.6775
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q301:22 Fourth down · WAS (1:22) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -0.463558482827773
Yardline 100 50
Elapsed share 0.7272222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q408:40 Fourth down · WAS (8:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -0.2774384814818183
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.8555555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q404:39 Kick · WAS (4:39) 19-D.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -0.2122620173593473
Yardline 100 18
Elapsed share 0.9225
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -8.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q111:06 Fumble · SEA (11:06) 8-J.Price left end to SEA 22 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles, 2-A.Robertson). FUMBLES (2-A.Robertson), RECOVERED by WAS-97-T.Settle at SEA 21. + Fumble recoveries above expectation WAS -0.26 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation SEA 0.26 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q109:08 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Extra point points above expectation WAS -0.44 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q104:26 Penalty · WAS (4:26) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:22 Penalty · SEA (14:22) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (20-Q.Martin). PENALTY on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 3 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:27 Kick · SEA 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Extra point points above expectation SEA 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q206:47 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Extra point points above expectation WAS -0.44 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q201:24 Fourth down · WAS (1:24) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at WAS 41 for 13 yards (82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-82-B.Sinnott has returned to the game. + Fourth down decision cost WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:08 Penalty · SEA (1:08) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-11-J.Smith-Njigba, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:57 Kick · SEA (:57) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 1.18 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team WAS
Away total 24.5
Home total 16
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -8.5
Spread time -1.225561978587003
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.4841666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 8.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q310:43 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Extra point points above expectation WAS -0.44 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q310:43 Penalty · SEA 19-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 4, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-19-D.Stevens, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at SEA 40. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:25 Penalty · SEA (9:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 49 for 5 yards (92-D.Armstrong). PENALTY on WAS-0-M.Sainristil, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 49. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:14 Fumble · SEA (6:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-E.Saubert to WAS 1 for 12 yards (52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (52-S.Styles), and recovers at WAS -1. TOUCHDOWN. + Fumble recoveries above expectation WAS -0.26 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation SEA 0.26 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q306:05 Kick · SEA 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Extra point points above expectation SEA 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q302:57 Fourth down · WAS (2:57) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to SEA 49 for -3 yards (99-L.Williams, 90-J.Reed). Penalty on WAS, Illegal Shift, declined. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:34 Penalty · WAS (2:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 1-R.White to SEA 44 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas; 13-E.Jones) [0-D.Lawrence]. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:19 Penalty · SEA (14:19) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 22-R.Shaheed (45-K.Chaisson). PENALTY on WAS-45-K.Chaisson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:53 Kick · SEA 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Extra point points above expectation SEA 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q411:53 Penalty · WAS 5-J.Myers kicks 42 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 23, short of landing zone. PENALTY on SEA-5-J.Myers, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at WAS 40. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:35 Penalty · WAS (10:35) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (29-J.Jobe, 30-A.Finley). PENALTY on SEA-30-A.Finley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:24 Penalty · SEA (4:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed (29-R.Douglas, 39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-22-R.Shaheed has returned to the game. PENALTY on SEA, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:09 Penalty · SEA (4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Interception worthy throws SEA 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q403:57 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Extra point points above expectation WAS -0.44 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q402:51 Kick · SEA 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Extra point points above expectation SEA 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q201:40 Execution · WAS (1:40) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 82-B.Sinnott. WAS-82-B.Sinnott was injured during the play. + Charted drops WAS 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q313:37 Execution · WAS (13:37) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.Williams (13-E.Jones). + Charted drops WAS 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q301:27 Execution · WAS (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.McLaurin. + Charted drops WAS 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q304:30 Execution · SEA (4:30) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba. + Charted drops SEA 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q404:17 Execution · SEA (4:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 8-J.Price (29-R.Douglas) [98-O.Oweh]. + Charted drops SEA 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q208:06 Execution · WAS (8:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 3-S.Diggs (7-U.Nwosu). + Interception worthy throws WAS 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q112:28 Execution · WAS (12:28) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt to WAS 27 for 7 yards (13-E.Jones) [91-B.Murphy]. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q109:14 Execution · WAS (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 1-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q106:56 Execution · WAS (6:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at WAS 39 for 11 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q104:17 Execution · WAS (4:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Brown. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q104:12 Execution · WAS (4:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 80-C.Yankoff to WAS 49 for 2 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q211:34 Execution · WAS (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Diggs. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q209:52 Execution · WAS (9:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 48 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q209:15 Execution · WAS (9:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 14-A.Williams to SEA 39 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones; 32-D.Thomas). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q208:03 Execution · WAS (8:03) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 83-J.Lane pushed ob at SEA 12 for 21 yards (30-A.Finley). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q206:51 Execution · WAS (6:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 13-T.Burks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-L.Williams]. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q200:52 Execution · WAS (:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SEA 47 for 18 yards [0-D.Lawrence]. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q200:41 Execution · WAS (:41) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at SEA 41 for 6 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams]. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q314:54 Execution · WAS (14:54) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 42 for 8 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). ** Injury Update: WAS-63-L.Patrick has returned to the game. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q312:02 Execution · WAS (12:02) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 32 for 11 yards (32-D.Thomas). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q311:27 Execution · WAS (11:27) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 13-T.Burks to SEA 30 for 2 yards (30-A.Finley). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q310:50 Execution · WAS (10:50) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions WAS 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q305:16 Execution · WAS (5:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SEA 49 for 20 yards. Seattle challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (24-R.Thomas). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q304:15 Execution · WAS (4:15) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 87-J.Bates pushed ob at SEA 47 for 9 yards (32-D.Thomas). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q410:29 Execution · WAS (10:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 44 for 4 yards (24-R.Thomas; 0-D.Lawrence). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q409:19 Execution · WAS (9:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 39 for 7 yards (28-N.Pritchett). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q407:20 Execution · WAS (7:20) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to SEA 22 for 10 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). + Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q113:30 Execution · SEA (13:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at WAS 47 for 9 yards (29-R.Douglas). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q108:20 Execution · SEA (8:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 36-G.Holani to SEA 28 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 52-S.Styles). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q103:25 Execution · SEA (3:25) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 21 for 11 yards (54-L.Chenal). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q102:09 Execution · SEA (2:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 41 for 20 yards (39-J.Reaves). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q100:54 Execution · SEA (:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 21 for 32 yards (45-K.Chaisson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q100:05 Execution · SEA (:05) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 38-B.Russell to WAS 1 for 20 yards (20-Q.Martin) [98-O.Oweh]. + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q213:31 Execution · SEA (13:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q211:14 Execution · SEA (11:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 36-G.Holani to SEA 22 for 6 yards (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q210:33 Execution · SEA (10:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q206:26 Execution · SEA (6:26) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 46 for 19 yards (39-J.Reaves). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q205:01 Execution · SEA (5:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q204:57 Execution · SEA (4:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp to WAS 42 for 16 yards (0-M.Sainristil). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q203:39 Execution · SEA (3:39) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 15-T.Horton to WAS 20 for 17 yards (20-Q.Martin). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q202:57 Execution · SEA (2:57) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 5 for 15 yards (29-R.Douglas). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Execution · SEA (2:00) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q201:13 Execution · SEA (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 8-J.Price (52-S.Styles). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q201:08 Execution · SEA (1:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at WAS 43 for 3 yards (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q201:04 Execution · SEA (1:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to WAS 39 for 4 yards (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q313:24 Execution · SEA (13:24) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 8-J.Price to SEA 25 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q310:07 Execution · SEA (10:07) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to SEA 46 for 5 yards (56-K.Medrano). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q308:17 Execution · SEA (8:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 22-R.Shaheed to WAS 39 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q307:37 Execution · SEA (7:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 27 for 12 yards (35-P.Butler). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q306:52 Execution · SEA (6:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 15-T.Horton to WAS 13 for 14 yards (20-Q.Martin). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q301:12 Execution · SEA (1:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 36-G.Holani to SEA 29 for 9 yards (56-K.Medrano). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q300:15 Execution · SEA (:15) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner pushed ob at SEA 37 for 12 yards (48-J.Josephs). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q414:08 Execution · SEA (14:08) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 36-G.Holani to WAS 30 for 13 yards (45-K.Chaisson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q413:26 Execution · SEA (13:26) (Shotgun) 11-J.Smith-Njigba pass short right to 36-G.Holani to WAS 16 for 14 yards (98-O.Oweh; 35-P.Butler) [52-S.Styles]. + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q412:37 Execution · SEA (12:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to WAS 11 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q411:57 Execution · SEA (11:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q404:30 Execution · SEA (4:30) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at WAS 44 for 26 yards. + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q403:52 Execution · SEA (3:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (39-J.Reaves). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q403:46 Execution · SEA (3:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 39 for 11 yards (52-S.Styles). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q403:23 Execution · SEA (3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 24 for 15 yards (2-A.Robertson). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q403:00 Execution · SEA (3:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton ran ob at WAS 7 for 17 yards (20-Q.Martin). + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q402:55 Execution · SEA (2:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q305:59 Execution · WAS (5:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin [58-D.Hall]. + Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q402:00 Execution · WAS (2:00) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Williams [0-D.Lawrence]. + Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Q312:10 Execution · SEA (12:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 52-S.Styles (97-T.Settle) at SEA 42. 52-S.Styles to SEA 43 for -1 yards (36-G.Holani). + Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Q304:25 Execution · SEA (4:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 22-R.Shaheed. + Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 8ae1e5bd4eacb34c09f170404044567f896d697335ec13366132aa440ed401a0nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0c2e4494acf5278125e1e981ab552b76f31463ae3fc1ef349da61ee8df65ee2dnflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 3:26 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 88f54fc09841d358a60a7143c85aec7a6f3055de65252e7fbeec37877ba8db62Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: c405b9e329a478d2948b6a9d06e12f883affda4f4dbb03c9a219979383a03f63
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 33 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 3:37 PM UTC Version 32 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 9:54 AM UTC Version 31 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 1:55 AM UTC Version 30 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 4, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC Version 29 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 4, 2026, 1:26 PM UTC Version 28 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 4, 2026, 8:25 AM UTC Version 27 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 4, 2026, 1:39 AM UTC Version 26 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 3, 2026, 7:18 PM UTC Version 25 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 3, 2026, 1:18 PM UTC Version 24 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 3, 2026, 7:13 AM UTC Version 23 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 3, 2026, 1:24 AM UTC Version 22 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 2, 2026, 7:22 PM UTC Version 21 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 1, 2026, 3:55 PM UTC Version 20 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 1, 2026, 7:34 AM UTC Version 19 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 1, 2026, 1:42 AM UTC Version 18 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 30, 2026, 7:20 PM UTC Version 17 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 30, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC Version 16 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 30, 2026, 7:33 AM UTC Version 15 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 30, 2026, 1:39 AM UTC Version 14 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 29, 2026, 9:44 PM UTC Version 13 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 29, 2026, 7:46 PM UTC Version 12 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Sep 29, 2026, 7:32 PM UTC Version 11 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 29, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC Version 10 ↗ Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 29, 2026, 7:31 AM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 29, 2026, 1:48 AM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 28, 2026, 10:06 PM UTC Version 7 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 28, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Sep 28, 2026, 12:26 PM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 28, 2026, 10:29 AM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 28, 2026, 6:07 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Sep 28, 2026, 4:03 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Sep 27, 2026, 11:16 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 27, 2026, 9:35 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 1911
Half seconds remaining 111
Quarter seconds remaining 111
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5560688821308436 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55607/0.52213/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets SEA 39 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Contested targets SEA 12 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
4
Game seconds remaining 1803
Quarter seconds remaining 3
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.552580011891424 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49341/0.55258/0.49055 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation WAS 1.33 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 1211
Half seconds remaining 1211
Quarter seconds remaining 311
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.617813740509099 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57674/ NA/0.61781 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-7
Game seconds remaining 1161
Half seconds remaining 1161
Quarter seconds remaining 261
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2986157703135451 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28945/ NA/0.29862 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 982
Half seconds remaining 982
Quarter seconds remaining 82
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6742417144652234 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60763/0.57257/0.67424 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 520
Half seconds remaining 520
Quarter seconds remaining 520
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4454196910281535 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44542/0.40310/0.37845 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets WAS 25 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Contested targets WAS 11 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 279
Half seconds remaining 279
Quarter seconds remaining 279
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.5160129680069886 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46826/0.51601/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation WAS 1.33 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 1857
Quarter seconds remaining 57
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4731267447525151 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47313/0.46128/0.45110 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation SEA 1.13 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets SEA Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 46/46 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 31/31 eligible events modeled