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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: NYG by 4.2; actual result: NYG by 12.
The 7.8-point difference was matched or exceeded in 287 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 NYG minus ARI penalty-yard difference: -11 versus -3.0 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 774 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: ARI by 2.5; actual result: NYG by 12. The difference was 14.5 points.
1,948 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 80.35%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Arizona Cardinals by 2.5
Final margin New York Giants by 12
Difference 14.5 points
New York Giants covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
1,948 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (26.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score NYG by 4.2
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
New York Giants chance to win during the game 149 preplay estimates across 177 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 28 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 5 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 00:27 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 4288 (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at NYG 22 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NYG awarded ARI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 10.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:14 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 4370 (:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (2-D.Banks).
Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 8.7 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 06:12 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 1506 (6:12) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at ARI 19 for 6 yards (16-M.Melton). New York Giants challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at ARI 18 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton).
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 177 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 177 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 34-D.Zvada kicks 62 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 3. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 42 for 39 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 40 34-D.Zvada kicks 62 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 3. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 42 for 39 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q114:53 (14:53) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride (27-T.Nubin). Play 63 (14:53) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride (27-T.Nubin).
Q114:48 (14:48) 4-J.Love right tackle to ARI 42 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds). Play 86 (14:48) 4-J.Love right tackle to ARI 42 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds).
Q114:22 (14:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 45 for 13 yards (20-G.Newsome; 8-J.Holland). Penalty on NYG-27-T.Nubin, Illegal Contact, declined. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 35 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q308:04 Penalty · ARI (8:04) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 18-M.Harrison [3-A.Carter]. PENALTY on NYG-20-G.Newsome, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at NYG 4 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -4.43 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 2
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 2
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -2
Game seconds remaining 1379
Half seconds remaining 1379
Quarter seconds remaining 479
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 4, 2026, 12:50 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 cbbe44e29207a21d5ba3e53f2f2d193498284678dbff6485ab8a262559ee4d9eNYG by 12
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
287 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 774 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Shawn Smith Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football
In 77 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12 accepted penalties for 96.9 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.8 / 47.7 yd per game. Away teams: 6.2 / 49.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Shawn Smith; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape New York Giants · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New York Giants · Opponent penalties Opponent ARI was charged 7 penalties for 55 yards.
New York Giants · Non offensive touchdowns Recorded 1 defensive or special-teams touchdowns.
Arizona Cardinals · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Arizona Cardinals · Opponent penalties Opponent NYG was charged 6 penalties for 44 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 149 model estimates across 177 recorded game entries.
28 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (177 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -1.77 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -0.95 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Scoring turnover or replay requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -4.43 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -1.78 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -2.9 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -0.51 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -0.54 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -0.29 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence 3.44 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence 0.47 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0.67 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30130/0.29455/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15159/0.16500/0.13931 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19175/ NA/0.19538 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77340/ NA/0.78530 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0.06 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18440/ NA/0.18384 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76403/ NA/0.78064 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25616/ NA/0.31132 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32318/ NA/0.37279 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 3.29 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.34988/ NA/0.31700 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58276/0.53193/0.67288 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 2.78 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74871/0.72095/0.73743 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
NYG Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.36 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 26th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
ARI Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.36 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 26th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
NYG Field goal points above expectation 1.76 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 63rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
ARI Field goal points above expectation 1.37 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 52nd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NYG Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
ARI Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 77th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
NYG Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 177 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
ARI Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 177 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
ARI Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.2 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.52 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.5 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.59 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.28 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.53 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.49 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.6 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 04:53 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 3822 (4:53) (Punt formation) PENALTY on ARI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 11 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.4 percentage points across this play.
Show 1 more play Q4 · 02:06 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 4071 (2:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 44 for 11 yards (20-G.Newsome). Penalty on NYG-20-G.Newsome, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.3 percentage points across this play.
Play 108
(14:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 45 for 13 yards (20-G.Newsome; 8-J.Holland). Penalty on NYG-27-T.Nubin, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q113:54 (13:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to NYG 39 for 6 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 144 (13:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to NYG 39 for 6 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q113:15 (13:15) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love left end to NYG 23 for 16 yards (27-T.Nubin). Play 169 (13:15) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love left end to NYG 23 for 16 yards (27-T.Nubin).
Q112:30 (12:30) 4-J.Love right end to NYG 14 for 9 yards (27-T.Nubin). Play 193 (12:30) 4-J.Love right end to NYG 14 for 9 yards (27-T.Nubin).
Q111:53 (11:53) 4-J.Love right guard to NYG 12 for 2 yards (20-G.Newsome; 99-B.Okoye). Play 215 (11:53) 4-J.Love right guard to NYG 12 for 2 yards (20-G.Newsome; 99-B.Okoye).
Q111:12 (11:12) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 237 (11:12) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q111:08 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 263 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q111:08 38-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from ARI 35 to NYG -1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 23 for 24 yards (0-C.Simon). Play 278 38-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from ARI 35 to NYG -1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 23 for 24 yards (0-C.Simon).
Q111:03 (11:03) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 21 for -2 yards (10-J.Sweat). Play 308 (11:03) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 21 for -2 yards (10-J.Sweat).
Q110:30 (10:30) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely. Play 328 (10:30) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely.
Q110:26 (10:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers to ARI 40 for 39 yards (28-A.Wingard). NYG-1-M.Nabers was injured during the play. Play 351 (10:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers to ARI 40 for 39 yards (28-A.Wingard). NYG-1-M.Nabers was injured during the play.
Q109:58 (9:58) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to ARI 36 for 4 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 16-M.Melton). Play 379 (9:58) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to ARI 36 for 4 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 16-M.Melton).
Q109:22 (9:22) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 45-P.Ricard. Play 401 (9:22) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 45-P.Ricard.
Q109:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to ARI 27 for 9 yards (50-J.Gibbens). ** Injury Update: NYG-1-M.Nabers has returned to the game. Play 424 (9:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to ARI 27 for 9 yards (50-J.Gibbens). ** Injury Update: NYG-1-M.Nabers has returned to the game.
Q108:42 (8:42) 23-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 23 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 56-D.Robinson). Play 449 (8:42) 23-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 23 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 56-D.Robinson).
Q108:03 (8:03) 23-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 19 for 4 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 1-Ma.Wilson). Play 483 (8:03) 23-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 19 for 4 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 1-Ma.Wilson).
Q107:23 (7:23) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 21 for -2 yards (51-R.Lopez). Play 505 (7:23) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 21 for -2 yards (51-R.Lopez).
Q106:40 (6:40) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 527 (6:40) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q106:36 34-D.Zvada kicks 64 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 26 for 25 yards (46-Z.Barnes). Play 547 34-D.Zvada kicks 64 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 26 for 25 yards (46-Z.Barnes).
Q106:29 (6:29) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 46 for 20 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 577 (6:29) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 46 for 20 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q105:48 (5:48) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love left end pushed ob at NYG 46 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 602 (5:48) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love left end pushed ob at NYG 46 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q105:13 (5:13) 4-J.Love right end to NYG 38 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 631 (5:13) 4-J.Love right end to NYG 38 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q104:32 (4:32) 22-T.Allgeier right guard to NYG 31 for 7 yards (57-C.Golston; 8-J.Holland). Play 658 (4:32) 22-T.Allgeier right guard to NYG 31 for 7 yards (57-C.Golston; 8-J.Holland).
Q103:54 (3:54) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier right end to NYG 22 for 9 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 680 (3:54) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier right end to NYG 22 for 9 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q103:12 (3:12) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 702 (3:12) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q103:05 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 725 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q103:05 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to NYG 0. 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at ARI 45 for 55 yards (13-K.Clark). Play 740 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to NYG 0. 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at ARI 45 for 55 yards (13-K.Clark).
Q102:57 (2:57) 23-N.Harris left tackle to ARI 36 for 9 yards (97-W.Nolen). Play 775 (2:57) 23-N.Harris left tackle to ARI 36 for 9 yards (97-W.Nolen).
Q102:20 (2:20) 44-C.Skattebo right guard to ARI 32 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 797 (2:20) 44-C.Skattebo right guard to ARI 32 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q101:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at ARI 35 for -3 yards (97-W.Nolen). Play 819 (1:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at ARI 35 for -3 yards (97-W.Nolen).
Q101:08 (1:08) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to ARI 33 for 2 yards (21-G.Williams). Play 839 (1:08) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to ARI 33 for 2 yards (21-G.Williams).
Q100:28 (:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to ARI 32 for 1 yard (21-G.Williams). Play 864 (:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to ARI 32 for 1 yard (21-G.Williams).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 889 Q215:00 (15:00) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 915 (15:00) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q214:55 34-D.Zvada kicks 64 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 38 for 37 yards (48-T.Ford). Play 935 34-D.Zvada kicks 64 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 38 for 37 yards (48-T.Ford).
Q214:47 (14:47) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 35 for -3 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 958 (14:47) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 35 for -3 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q214:04 (14:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 20-G.Newsome (52-A.Reese) at NYG 32. 20-G.Newsome to NYG 32 for no gain (18-M.Harrison). Play 983 (14:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 20-G.Newsome (52-A.Reese) at NYG 32. 20-G.Newsome to NYG 32 for no gain (18-M.Harrison).
Q213:56 (13:56) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to NYG 37 for 5 yards (10-J.Sweat). Play 1010 (13:56) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to NYG 37 for 5 yards (10-J.Sweat).
Q213:18 (13:18) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Mooney. Play 1039 (13:18) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Mooney.
Q213:13 (13:13) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Mooney (3-B.Baker). Play 1062 (13:13) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Mooney (3-B.Baker).
Q213:09 (13:09) 15-J.Stout punts 48 yards to ARI 15, Center-58-B.Mann. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 27 for 12 yards (31-N.Jones; 41-M.McFadden). Play 1085 (13:09) 15-J.Stout punts 48 yards to ARI 15, Center-58-B.Mann. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 27 for 12 yards (31-N.Jones; 41-M.McFadden).
Q213:00 (13:00) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to ARI 29 for 2 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 1111 (13:00) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to ARI 29 for 2 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q212:18 (12:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (2-D.Banks). Play 1142 (12:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson (2-D.Banks).
Q212:14 (12:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 31 for 2 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 1165 (12:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 31 for 2 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q211:31 (11:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds. Play 1190 (11:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
Q211:23 (11:23) 23-N.Harris right tackle to NYG 27 for 2 yards (95-A.Billings). Play 1209 (11:23) 23-N.Harris right tackle to NYG 27 for 2 yards (95-A.Billings).
Q210:50 (10:50) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 32 for 5 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 1238 (10:50) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 32 for 5 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q210:12 (10:12) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Berrios (21-G.Williams). Play 1263 (10:12) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Berrios (21-G.Williams).
Q210:07 (10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 51 yards to ARI 17, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay. Play 1286 (10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 51 yards to ARI 17, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.
Q209:59 (9:59) 4-J.Love left tackle to ARI 17 for no gain (3-A.Carter). Play 1306 (9:59) 4-J.Love left tackle to ARI 17 for no gain (3-A.Carter).
Q209:20 (9:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 18-M.Harrison (52-A.Reese). Play 1335 (9:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 18-M.Harrison (52-A.Reese).
Q209:15 (9:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 19 for 2 yards (20-G.Newsome). Play 1358 (9:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 19 for 2 yards (20-G.Newsome).
Q208:35 (8:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 44, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 44 for no gain (86-J.Brooks). Play 1383 (8:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 44, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 44 for no gain (86-J.Brooks).
Q208:27 (8:27) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 43 for -1 yards (91-L.Collier). PENALTY on ARI-91-L.Collier, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 44 - No Play. Play 1409 (8:27) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 43 for -1 yards (91-L.Collier). PENALTY on ARI-91-L.Collier, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 44 - No Play.
Q208:07 (8:07) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 34 for 7 yards (31-W.Williams; 91-L.Collier). Play 1440 (8:07) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 34 for 7 yards (31-W.Williams; 91-L.Collier).
Q207:29 (7:29) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to ARI 28 for 6 yards (51-R.Lopez). Play 1462 (7:29) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to ARI 28 for 6 yards (51-R.Lopez).
Q206:50 (6:50) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to ARI 25 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens). Play 1484 (6:50) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to ARI 25 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
Q206:12 (6:12) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at ARI 19 for 6 yards (16-M.Melton). New York Giants challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at ARI 18 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 1506 (6:12) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at ARI 19 for 6 yards (16-M.Melton). New York Giants challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at ARI 18 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q205:56 (5:56) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 17 for 1 yard (56-D.Robinson). Play 1536 (5:56) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 17 for 1 yard (56-D.Robinson).
Q205:20 (5:20) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to ARI 12 for 5 yards (21-G.Williams). Play 1588 (5:20) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to ARI 12 for 5 yards (21-G.Williams).
Q204:36 (4:36) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1613 (4:36) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q204:30 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 19-J.Winston pass to 85-C.Manhertz is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 1639 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 19-J.Winston pass to 85-C.Manhertz is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q204:30 34-D.Zvada kicks 63 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 2. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 27 for 25 yards (41-M.McFadden; 29-T.Tracy). Play 1652 34-D.Zvada kicks 63 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 2. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 27 for 25 yards (41-M.McFadden; 29-T.Tracy).
Q204:24 (4:24) 4-J.Love left end to ARI 32 for 5 yards (2-D.Banks; 8-J.Holland). Play 1675 (4:24) 4-J.Love left end to ARI 32 for 5 yards (2-D.Banks; 8-J.Holland).
Q203:50 (3:50) 4-J.Love left end pushed ob at ARI 35 for 3 yards (2-D.Banks). Play 1697 (3:50) 4-J.Love left end pushed ob at ARI 35 for 3 yards (2-D.Banks).
Q203:15 (3:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Reese (93-S.Harris) at ARI 34. 52-A.Reese to ARI 26 for 8 yards (74-I.Adams). Play 1724 (3:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Reese (93-S.Harris) at ARI 34. 52-A.Reese to ARI 26 for 8 yards (74-I.Adams).
Q203:09 (3:09) 44-C.Skattebo right end to ARI 25 for 1 yard (5-B.Browning). Play 1761 (3:09) 44-C.Skattebo right end to ARI 25 for 1 yard (5-B.Browning).
Q202:28 (2:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Stills]. Play 1783 (2:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Stills].
Q202:24 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 1809 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q202:24 34-D.Zvada kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 5. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 31 for 26 yards (84-T.Johnson). Play 1824 34-D.Zvada kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 5. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 31 for 26 yards (84-T.Johnson).
Q202:19 (2:19) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 31 for no gain (52-A.Reese). Play 1847 (2:19) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 31 for no gain (52-A.Reese).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 23 for -8 yards (99-B.Okoye). Play 1869 (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 23 for -8 yards (99-B.Okoye).
Q201:17 (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 4-J.Love to ARI 15 for -8 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 1896 (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 4-J.Love to ARI 15 for -8 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q201:13 Timeout #1 by NYG at 01:13. Play 1933 Timeout #1 by NYG at 01:13.
Q201:13 (1:13) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 48, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 46 for -2 yards (31-W.Williams). Play 1921 (1:13) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 48, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 46 for -2 yards (31-W.Williams).
Q201:03 (1:03) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 9-I.Likely. Play 1954 (1:03) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 9-I.Likely.
Q200:59 (:59) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to ARI 48 for 6 yards (29-D.Burke). Play 1977 (:59) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to ARI 48 for 6 yards (29-D.Burke).
Q200:38 (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at ARI 40 for 8 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 29-D.Burke). Play 2002 (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at ARI 40 for 8 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 29-D.Burke).
Q200:32 (:32) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Burke [55-D.Stills] at ARI 25. 29-D.Burke to ARI 25 for no gain (88-M.Fields). Play 2041 (:32) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Burke [55-D.Stills] at ARI 25. 29-D.Burke to ARI 25 for no gain (88-M.Fields).
Q200:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to ARI 33 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 2068 (:24) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to ARI 33 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q200:18 Timeout #1 by ARI at 00:18. Play 2105 Timeout #1 by ARI at 00:18.
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to ARI 34 for 1 yard (91-D.Alexander). Play 2093 (:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to ARI 34 for 1 yard (91-D.Alexander).
Q200:09 Timeout #2 by ARI at 00:09. Play 2134 Timeout #2 by ARI at 00:09.
Q200:09 (:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at NYG 42 for 24 yards (20-G.Newsome). Play 2122 (:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at NYG 42 for 24 yards (20-G.Newsome).
Q200:02 (:02) 38-C.Ryland 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 2159 (:02) 38-C.Ryland 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2179 Q315:00 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to NYG 0. 89-C.Jones to NYG 26 for 26 yards (84-E.Higgins). Play 2202 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to NYG 0. 89-C.Jones to NYG 26 for 26 yards (84-E.Higgins).
Q314:55 (14:55) 44-C.Skattebo right end to NYG 28 for 2 yards (51-R.Lopez). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 26 - No Play. Play 2225 (14:55) 44-C.Skattebo right end to NYG 28 for 2 yards (51-R.Lopez). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 26 - No Play.
Q314:39 (14:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NYG 24 for 8 yards (3-B.Baker) [10-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on ARI-10-J.Sweat, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. Play 2258 (14:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NYG 24 for 8 yards (3-B.Baker) [10-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on ARI-10-J.Sweat, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play.
Q314:15 (14:15) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to NYG 29 for 8 yards (25-Z.Collins; 3-B.Baker). Play 2299 (14:15) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to NYG 29 for 8 yards (25-Z.Collins; 3-B.Baker).
Q313:38 (13:38) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to NYG 28 for -1 yards (97-W.Nolen, 10-J.Sweat). Play 2326 (13:38) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to NYG 28 for -1 yards (97-W.Nolen, 10-J.Sweat).
Q313:01 (13:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-72-J.Eluemunor, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 28 - No Play. Play 2348 (13:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-72-J.Eluemunor, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 28 - No Play.
Q312:40 (12:40) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at NYG 42. 3-B.Baker pushed ob at NYG 20 for 22 yards (19-J.Winston). PENALTY on ARI-31-W.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 27. Play 2372 (12:40) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at NYG 42. 3-B.Baker pushed ob at NYG 20 for 22 yards (19-J.Winston). PENALTY on ARI-31-W.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 27.
Q312:29 (12:29) 4-J.Love left guard to NYG 36 for 1 yard (8-J.Holland). Play 2425 (12:29) 4-J.Love left guard to NYG 36 for 1 yard (8-J.Holland).
Q311:56 (11:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 89-H.Long to NYG 26 for 10 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 2454 (11:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 89-H.Long to NYG 26 for 10 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q311:16 (11:16) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left guard to NYG 21 for 5 yards (2-D.Banks; 93-S.Harris). Play 2479 (11:16) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left guard to NYG 21 for 5 yards (2-D.Banks; 93-S.Harris).
Q310:35 (10:35) 4-J.Love left tackle to NYG 17 for 4 yards (57-C.Golston). Play 2501 (10:35) 4-J.Love left tackle to NYG 17 for 4 yards (57-C.Golston).
Q310:09 (10:09) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to NYG 15 for 2 yards (93-S.Harris). Play 2523 (10:09) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to NYG 15 for 2 yards (93-S.Harris).
Q309:29 (9:29) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to NYG 14 for 1 yard (3-A.Carter; 91-D.Alexander). Play 2545 (9:29) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to NYG 14 for 1 yard (3-A.Carter; 91-D.Alexander).
Q308:51 (8:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 4 for 10 yards (27-T.Nubin). Play 2567 (8:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 4 for 10 yards (27-T.Nubin).
Q308:06 (8:06) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Harrison (2-D.Banks). NYG-57-C.Golston was injured during the play. Play 2592 (8:06) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Harrison (2-D.Banks). NYG-57-C.Golston was injured during the play.
Q308:04 (8:04) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 18-M.Harrison [3-A.Carter]. PENALTY on NYG-20-G.Newsome, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at NYG 4 - No Play. Play 2617 (8:04) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 18-M.Harrison [3-A.Carter]. PENALTY on NYG-20-G.Newsome, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at NYG 4 - No Play.
Q307:59 (7:59) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to NYG 2 for no gain (20-G.Newsome; 3-A.Carter). Play 2654 (7:59) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to NYG 2 for no gain (20-G.Newsome; 3-A.Carter).
Q307:24 (7:24) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 84-E.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2676 (7:24) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 84-E.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q307:20 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 2702 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q307:20 38-C.Ryland kicks 60 yards from ARI 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 24 for 19 yards (43-K.Sharar). Play 2717 38-C.Ryland kicks 60 yards from ARI 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 24 for 19 yards (43-K.Sharar).
Q307:14 (7:14) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at ARI 48 for 28 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 2747 (7:14) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at ARI 48 for 28 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q306:35 (6:35) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 42 for -10 yards (56-D.Robinson). Play 2777 (6:35) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 42 for -10 yards (56-D.Robinson).
Q305:50 (5:50) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers [10-J.Sweat]. Penalty on NYG-9-I.Likely, Illegal Formation, declined. Play 2797 (5:50) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers [10-J.Sweat]. Penalty on NYG-9-I.Likely, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q305:47 (5:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 88-M.Fields pushed ob at ARI 18 for 40 yards (31-W.Williams). Play 2831 (5:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 88-M.Fields pushed ob at ARI 18 for 40 yards (31-W.Williams).
Q305:04 (5:04) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris left guard to ARI 15 for 3 yards (16-M.Melton; 55-D.Stills). Play 2861 (5:04) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris left guard to ARI 15 for 3 yards (16-M.Melton; 55-D.Stills).
Q304:22 (4:22) 23-N.Harris left tackle to ARI 13 for 2 yards (51-R.Lopez; 97-W.Nolen). Play 2883 (4:22) 23-N.Harris left tackle to ARI 13 for 2 yards (51-R.Lopez; 97-W.Nolen).
Q303:36 (3:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-88-M.Fields, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 13 - No Play. Play 2905 (3:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-88-M.Fields, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 13 - No Play.
Q303:16 (3:16) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to ARI 16 for 2 yards (10-J.Sweat). Play 2934 (3:16) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to ARI 16 for 2 yards (10-J.Sweat).
Q302:34 (2:34) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. PENALTY on ARI-55-D.Stills, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 16 - No Play. Play 2969 (2:34) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. PENALTY on ARI-55-D.Stills, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 16 - No Play.
Q302:30 (2:30) 23-N.Harris left tackle to ARI 11 for no gain (50-J.Gibbens; 56-D.Robinson). Play 3000 (2:30) 23-N.Harris left tackle to ARI 11 for no gain (50-J.Gibbens; 56-D.Robinson).
Q301:48 (1:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3022 (1:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q301:44 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 23-N.Harris rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 3048 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 23-N.Harris rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q301:44 34-D.Zvada kicks 59 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 6. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 29 for 23 yards (51-J.Kelly). Play 3067 34-D.Zvada kicks 59 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 6. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 29 for 23 yards (51-J.Kelly).
Q301:38 (1:38) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 46 for 17 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 3097 (1:38) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 46 for 17 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q300:59 (:59) 4-J.Love right end to NYG 48 for 6 yards (8-J.Holland). PENALTY on ARI-73-I.Seumalo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 46 - No Play. Play 3122 (:59) 4-J.Love right end to NYG 48 for 6 yards (8-J.Holland). PENALTY on ARI-73-I.Seumalo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 46 - No Play.
Q300:36 (:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 45 for 9 yards (52-A.Reese) [98-D.Reader]. Play 3155 (:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at ARI 45 for 9 yards (52-A.Reese) [98-D.Reader].
Q300:03 (:03) 4-J.Love left guard to ARI 49 for 4 yards (93-S.Harris; 5-K.Thibodeaux). Play 3185 (:03) 4-J.Love left guard to ARI 49 for 4 yards (93-S.Harris; 5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3207 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 38 for -11 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 3227 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 38 for -11 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q414:05 (14:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones to NYG 16 for 6 yards (80-S.Fehoko). ARI-89-H.Long was injured during the play. Play 3247 (14:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones to NYG 16 for 6 yards (80-S.Fehoko). ARI-89-H.Long was injured during the play.
Q413:55 (13:55) 23-N.Harris right tackle to NYG 21 for 5 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 3276 (13:55) 23-N.Harris right tackle to NYG 21 for 5 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q413:21 (13:21) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NYG 22 for 1 yard (95-A.Billings). Play 3305 (13:21) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NYG 22 for 1 yard (95-A.Billings).
Q412:42 (12:42) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right to 9-I.Likely to ARI 44 for 34 yards (3-B.Baker; 31-W.Williams). Play 3327 (12:42) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right to 9-I.Likely to ARI 44 for 34 yards (3-B.Baker; 31-W.Williams).
Q411:54 (11:54) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 45-P.Ricard to ARI 43 for 1 yard (50-J.Gibbens). Play 3352 (11:54) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 45-P.Ricard to ARI 43 for 1 yard (50-J.Gibbens).
Q411:14 (11:14) 23-N.Harris left guard to ARI 41 for 2 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 55-D.Stills). FUMBLES (1-Ma.Wilson), RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at ARI 42. Play 3377 (11:14) 23-N.Harris left guard to ARI 41 for 2 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 55-D.Stills). FUMBLES (1-Ma.Wilson), RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at ARI 42.
Q411:08 (11:08) (Shotgun) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love left guard to ARI 40 for -2 yards (93-S.Harris). Play 3415 (11:08) (Shotgun) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 4-J.Love left guard to ARI 40 for -2 yards (93-S.Harris).
Q410:27 (10:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson (20-G.Newsome) [3-A.Carter]. Play 3446 (10:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson (20-G.Newsome) [3-A.Carter].
Q410:21 (10:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 45 for 5 yards (98-D.Reader; 2-D.Banks) [3-A.Carter]. Play 3469 (10:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier to ARI 45 for 5 yards (98-D.Reader; 2-D.Banks) [3-A.Carter].
Q409:34 (9:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones ran ob at NYG 33 for 23 yards (12-B.Gillikin). Play 3494 (9:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones ran ob at NYG 33 for 23 yards (12-B.Gillikin).
Q409:20 (9:20) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to NYG 48 for 15 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 3525 (9:20) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to NYG 48 for 15 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q408:40 (8:40) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to ARI 49 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 54-E.Leota). Play 3562 (8:40) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to ARI 49 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 54-E.Leota).
Q408:02 (8:02) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 84-T.Johnson pushed ob at ARI 48 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins) [10-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on ARI-25-Z.Collins, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 49 - No Play. Play 3593 (8:02) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 84-T.Johnson pushed ob at ARI 48 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins) [10-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on ARI-25-Z.Collins, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 49 - No Play.
Q407:47 (7:47) 44-C.Skattebo right guard to ARI 43 for 1 yard (51-R.Lopez; 25-Z.Collins). Play 3634 (7:47) 44-C.Skattebo right guard to ARI 43 for 1 yard (51-R.Lopez; 25-Z.Collins).
Q407:03 (7:03) 19-J.Winston sacked at ARI 46 for -3 yards (25-Z.Collins). Play 3656 (7:03) 19-J.Winston sacked at ARI 46 for -3 yards (25-Z.Collins).
Q406:18 (6:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-76-J.Runyan, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 46 - No Play. Play 3676 (6:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-76-J.Runyan, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 46 - No Play.
Q406:17 (6:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely. Play 3700 (6:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely.
Q406:13 (6:13) 15-J.Stout punts 47 yards to ARI 3, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-31-N.Jones. Play 3723 (6:13) 15-J.Stout punts 47 yards to ARI 3, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-31-N.Jones.
Q406:00 (6:00) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end ran ob at ARI 10 for 7 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 3743 (6:00) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end ran ob at ARI 10 for 7 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q405:29 (5:29) 22-T.Allgeier right guard to ARI 11 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader). Play 3777 (5:29) 22-T.Allgeier right guard to ARI 11 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader).
Q404:57 (4:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (22-A.Phillips). Play 3799 (4:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (22-A.Phillips).
Q404:53 (4:53) (Punt formation) PENALTY on ARI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 11 - No Play. Play 3822 (4:53) (Punt formation) PENALTY on ARI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 11 - No Play.
Q404:53 (4:53) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to 50, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 89-C.Jones. Play 3850 (4:53) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to 50, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.
Q404:47 (4:47) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to ARI 46 for 4 yards (31-W.Williams). Play 3870 (4:47) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to ARI 46 for 4 yards (31-W.Williams).
Q404:02 (4:02) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to ARI 43 for 3 yards (51-R.Lopez; 52-J.Burch). Play 3894 (4:02) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to ARI 43 for 3 yards (51-R.Lopez; 52-J.Burch).
Q403:16 (3:16) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left end to ARI 39 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 3916 (3:16) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left end to ARI 39 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q402:31 (2:31) 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to ARI 40 for -1 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 3938 (2:31) 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to ARI 40 for -1 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q402:25 Timeout #1 by ARI at 02:25. Play 3972 Timeout #1 by ARI at 02:25.
Q402:25 (2:25) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 34 for 6 yards (51-R.Lopez; 3-B.Baker). Play 3960 (2:25) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 34 for 6 yards (51-R.Lopez; 3-B.Baker).
Q402:19 Timeout #2 by ARI at 02:19. Play 4001 Timeout #2 by ARI at 02:19.
Q402:19 (2:19) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely. Play 3989 (2:19) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely.
Q402:16 (2:16) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 4019 (2:16) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q402:11 34-D.Zvada kicks 53 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 12. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 33 for 21 yards (48-T.Ford). Play 4048 34-D.Zvada kicks 53 yards from NYG 35 to ARI 12. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 33 for 21 yards (48-T.Ford).
Q402:06 (2:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 44 for 11 yards (20-G.Newsome). Penalty on NYG-20-G.Newsome, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. Play 4071 (2:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 44 for 11 yards (20-G.Newsome). Penalty on NYG-20-G.Newsome, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q402:02 (2:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 47 for 9 yards (20-G.Newsome). Play 4107 (2:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 47 for 9 yards (20-G.Newsome).
Q401:58 (1:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride (27-T.Nubin). Play 4138 (1:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride (27-T.Nubin).
Q401:54 (1:54) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to NYG 39 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 5-K.Thibodeaux). Play 4168 (1:54) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to NYG 39 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q401:32 (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to NYG 34 for 5 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 4190 (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to NYG 34 for 5 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q401:15 (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 26 for 8 yards (27-T.Nubin). Play 4215 (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 26 for 8 yards (27-T.Nubin).
Q400:55 (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride (20-G.Newsome) [3-A.Carter]. Play 4240 (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride (20-G.Newsome) [3-A.Carter].
Q400:49 (:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to NYG 22 for 4 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 4263 (:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to NYG 22 for 4 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q400:27 (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at NYG 22 - No Play. Play 4288 (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at NYG 22 - No Play.
Q400:22 (:22) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 14-Mi.Wilson. Play 4322 (:22) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 14-Mi.Wilson.
Q400:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (22-A.Phillips). Play 4347 (:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (22-A.Phillips).
Q400:14 (:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (2-D.Banks). Play 4370 (:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (2-D.Banks).
Q400:11 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:11. Play 4405 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:11.
Q400:11 (:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4393 (:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Game seconds remaining 1379
Half seconds remaining 1379
Quarter seconds remaining 479
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -1.78 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 2
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 2
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -2
Game seconds remaining 1379
Half seconds remaining 1379
Quarter seconds remaining 479
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 4
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 4
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -2
Game seconds remaining 1379
Half seconds remaining 1379
Quarter seconds remaining 479
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:53 Penalty · ARI (4:53) (Punt formation) PENALTY on ARI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG 3.44 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 7
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 293
Half seconds remaining 293
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 2
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 293
Half seconds remaining 293
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG 0.47 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 7
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 293
Half seconds remaining 293
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 2
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 293
Half seconds remaining 293
Quarter seconds remaining 293
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:34 Fourth down · ARI (9:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones ran ob at NYG 33 for 23 yards (12-B.Gillikin). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 3.29 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.08664538795748312
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.8405555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 574
Half seconds remaining 574
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 574
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3498765586386424 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.34988/ NA/0.31700 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:36 Penalty · NYG (3:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-88-M.Fields, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -2.9 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1116
Half seconds remaining 1116
Quarter seconds remaining 216
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 5
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1116
Half seconds remaining 1116
Quarter seconds remaining 216
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -0.51 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1116
Half seconds remaining 1116
Quarter seconds remaining 216
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 5
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Game seconds remaining 1116
Half seconds remaining 1116
Quarter seconds remaining 216
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q313:01 Penalty · NYG (13:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-72-J.Eluemunor, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 28 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -1.77 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 13
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 2
Game seconds remaining 1681
Half seconds remaining 1681
Quarter seconds remaining 781
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 8
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 72
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 2
Game seconds remaining 1681
Half seconds remaining 1681
Quarter seconds remaining 781
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -0.95 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 13
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 2
Game seconds remaining 1681
Half seconds remaining 1681
Quarter seconds remaining 781
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 8
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 72
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 2
Game seconds remaining 1681
Half seconds remaining 1681
Quarter seconds remaining 781
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q406:18 Penalty · NYG (6:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-76-J.Runyan, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -0.54 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 16
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 378
Half seconds remaining 378
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 12
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 378
Half seconds remaining 378
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -0.29 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 16
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 378
Half seconds remaining 378
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 12
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 378
Half seconds remaining 378
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q210:07 Fourth down · NYG (10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 51 yards to ARI 17, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0.06 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.6641383294742543
Yardline 100 68
Elapsed share 0.3313888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -8
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2407
Half seconds remaining 607
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 607
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1844019475931707 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18440/ NA/0.18384 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Kick · NYG (15:00) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.9196986029286058
Yardline 100 32
Elapsed share 0.25
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -11
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.1650028855383111 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15159/0.16500/0.13931 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG 1.76 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q213:09 Fourth down · NYG (13:09) 15-J.Stout punts 48 yards to ARI 15, Center-58-B.Mann. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 27 for 12 yards (31-N.Jones; 41-M.McFadden). + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.8129850149018989
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.2808333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -8
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2589
Half seconds remaining 789
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 789
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1953775708180915 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19175/ NA/0.19538 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:31 Fourth down · ARI (11:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.7291093994877789
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.3080555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 8
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2491
Half seconds remaining 691
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 691
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7852953525836748 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77340/ NA/0.78530 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:35 Fourth down · ARI (8:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 44, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 44 for no gain (86-J.Brooks). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.599603277932263
Yardline 100 81
Elapsed share 0.3569444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 8
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2315
Half seconds remaining 515
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 515
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7806448163699592 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76403/ NA/0.78064 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:13 Fourth down · ARI (1:13) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 48, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 46 for -2 yards (31-W.Williams). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 26
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.3669248732164783
Yardline 100 85
Elapsed share 0.4797222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -5
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1873
Half seconds remaining 73
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 73
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3113246901157135 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25616/ NA/0.31132 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 23 recorded events Q414:05 Fourth down · ARI (14:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones to NYG 16 for 6 yards (80-S.Fehoko). ARI-89-H.Long was injured during the play. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 18
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.1170890667829007
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.7652777777777777
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 845
Half seconds remaining 845
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 845
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3727942949598596 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32318/ NA/0.37279 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:13 Fourth down · NYG (6:13) 15-J.Stout punts 47 yards to ARI 3, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-31-N.Jones. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.06930315662485828
Yardline 100 50
Elapsed share 0.8963888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q114:22 Fourth down · ARI (14:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 45 for 13 yards (20-G.Newsome; 8-J.Holland). Penalty on NYG-27-T.Nubin, Illegal Contact, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q111:08 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q106:40 Kick · NYG (6:40) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0.67 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.434383551843582
Yardline 100 21
Elapsed share 0.1388888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q103:05 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q208:27 Penalty · NYG (8:27) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 43 for -1 yards (91-L.Collier). PENALTY on ARI-91-L.Collier, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:24 Kick · NYG 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Extra point points above expectation NYG 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:02 Kick · ARI (:02) 38-C.Ryland 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Field goal points above expectation ARI 1.37 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:55 Penalty · NYG (14:55) 44-C.Skattebo right end to NYG 28 for 2 yards (51-R.Lopez). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 26 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:39 Penalty · NYG (14:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NYG 24 for 8 yards (3-B.Baker) [10-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on ARI-10-J.Sweat, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:40 Penalty · NYG (12:40) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at NYG 42. 3-B.Baker pushed ob at NYG 20 for 22 yards (19-J.Winston). PENALTY on ARI-31-W.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 27. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:20 Kick · ARI 38-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Extra point points above expectation ARI 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q305:50 Fourth down · NYG (5:50) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers [10-J.Sweat]. Penalty on NYG-9-I.Likely, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:34 Penalty · NYG (2:34) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. PENALTY on ARI-55-D.Stills, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q300:59 Penalty · ARI (:59) 4-J.Love right end to NYG 48 for 6 yards (8-J.Holland). PENALTY on ARI-73-I.Seumalo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:14 Fumble · NYG (11:14) 23-N.Harris left guard to ARI 41 for 2 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 55-D.Stills). FUMBLES (1-Ma.Wilson), RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at ARI 42. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NYG -0.36 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation ARI 0.36 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:02 Penalty · NYG (8:02) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 84-T.Johnson pushed ob at ARI 48 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins) [10-J.Sweat]. PENALTY on ARI-25-Z.Collins, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:53 Fourth down · ARI (4:53) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to 50, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 89-C.Jones. + Fourth down decision cost ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:16 Kick · NYG (2:16) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 2.78 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team ARI
Home team NYG
Away total 23.5
Home total 21
Total line 44.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.05325848432620386
Yardline 100 34
Elapsed share 0.9622222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q402:06 Fourth down · ARI (2:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 44 for 11 yards (20-G.Newsome). Penalty on NYG-20-G.Newsome, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:27 Penalty · ARI (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at NYG 22 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:11 Fourth down · ARI (:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 4, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 4f47b55b40930fd4865c904e2771639c335c5bb24fdc358cd6d30f3a3c3a19afnflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 4, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 6cfdae5ca0503770eeea630f28d69a6671a8afc68b1ebb77a022b25e788ded3fnflverse-raw-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 4, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d3b1e28981ad42c1fc7f1493cac76ea30422cb3ae27d195f6afdb6b4cf272df4Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: a8ca1f6bf218beafb050b7b87b052dd7a83665cef14f0b492b35ee4281723ab7
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Oct 4, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 9:32 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 373
Half seconds remaining 373
Quarter seconds remaining 373
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6728811167049766 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58276/0.53193/0.67288 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-7
Game seconds remaining 3100
Half seconds remaining 1300
Quarter seconds remaining 400
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3012953548898643 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30130/0.29455/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG 1.76 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
3
Game seconds remaining 136
Half seconds remaining 136
Quarter seconds remaining 136
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7487145343614177 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74871/0.72095/0.73743 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG 1.76 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled