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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: ATL by 10.1; actual result: ATL by 21.
The 10.9-point difference was matched or exceeded in 156 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 57.65%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty count: 16 versus 11.8 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 496 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: NO by 1.5; actual result: ATL by 21. The difference was 22.5 points.
703 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 29.02%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result An unexpected result Expected margin New Orleans Saints by 1.5
Final margin Atlanta Falcons by 21
Difference 22.5 points
Atlanta Falcons covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
703 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (9.7%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score ATL by 10.1
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
New Orleans Saints chance to win during the game 147 preplay estimates across 176 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 29 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence 1.43 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
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Notable plays 2 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q1 · 00:56 Recorded game event
Atlanta Falcons · Play 1103 (:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson (97-K.Boyd). PENALTY on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NO awarded ATL a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 5.2 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 01:52 Recorded game event
New Orleans Saints · Play 3102 (1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. PENALTY on ATL-12-Av.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at NO 32 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on ATL awarded NO a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.9 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 176 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 176 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the ATL 20. Play 40 10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the ATL 20.
Q115:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to ATL 32 for 12 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 60 (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to ATL 32 for 12 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q114:22 (14:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to ATL 41 for 9 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 85 (14:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to ATL 41 for 9 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q113:43 (13:43) 7-Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 85 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q100:56 Penalty · ATL (:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson (97-K.Boyd). PENALTY on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -13.57 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 4
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 4
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2752
Half seconds remaining 952
Quarter seconds remaining 52
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 7, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 a14523d0324905f6df07d956c4ffdf95b2c9f693af991744ad013bc2624cad8eATL by 21
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
156 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 496 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Land Clark Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.8 accepted penalties for 98.5 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.9 / 48.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.9 / 50.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Land Clark; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape New Orleans Saints · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New Orleans Saints · Opponent penalties Opponent ATL was charged 8 penalties for 70 yards.
Atlanta Falcons · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Atlanta Falcons · Opponent penalties Opponent NO was charged 8 penalties for 49 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 147 model estimates across 176 recorded game entries.
29 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (176 entries) Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence 1.26 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence 1.13 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence 0.6 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -1.61 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -0.88 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -13.57 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -6.62 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence 1.37 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence 0.89 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence 0.73 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence 0.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence 0.29 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence 0.85 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ATL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence 1.26 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence 4.19 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -0.01 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -0.75 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
NO Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26275/ NA/0.30070 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65935/0.66734/0.67091 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0.04 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36618/0.36578/0.32933 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60687/ NA/0.65076 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0.48 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16680/ NA/0.16201 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ATL Fourth down decision cost 2 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.86578/0.84577/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11115/0.10179/0.12344 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 3.66 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11114/0.07455/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01952/0.01638/0.01716 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01977/0.01408/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00197/ NA/0.00166 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00036/0.00022/0.00031 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
NO Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.34 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 20th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
ATL Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.34 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 20th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
NO Field goal points above expectation -2.26 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 83rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
ATL Field goal points above expectation 0.05 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NO Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 18 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
ATL Extra point points above expectation 0.18 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 18 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
6 of 6 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
NO Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
48 of 48 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ATL Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
20 of 20 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NO Interception worthy throws 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
48 of 48 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ATL Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
20 of 20 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NO QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ATL QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NO Catchable targets 30 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
48 of 48 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ATL Catchable targets 15 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
20 of 20 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NO Contested targets 5 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
48 of 48 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ATL Contested targets 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
20 of 20 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
NO Receiver created receptions 4 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
48 of 48 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
ATL Receiver created receptions 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
20 of 20 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
ATL Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.02 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
56 of 56 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 56 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ATL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.91 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
56 of 56 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 56 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ATL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.64 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
55 of 55 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 55 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ATL Pass interference called penalties above expectation 2.33 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
55 of 55 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 55 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 3. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.46 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
81 of 81 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 81 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.68 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
81 of 81 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 81 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.74 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
22 of 22 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 22 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.29 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
22 of 22 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 22 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 110
(13:43) 7-Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q113:34 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 133 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q113:34 6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from ATL 35 to NO 3. 38-J.Price to NO 27 for 24 yards (42-J.Woods; 29-S.Brown). Play 148 6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from ATL 35 to NO 3. 38-J.Price to NO 27 for 24 yards (42-J.Woods; 29-S.Brown).
Q113:27 (13:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (26-C.Henderson). ATL-26-C.Henderson was injured during the play. Play 178 (13:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (26-C.Henderson). ATL-26-C.Henderson was injured during the play.
Q113:25 (13:25) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at NO 29 for 2 yards [52-S.Ebukam]. Play 216 (13:25) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at NO 29 for 2 yards [52-S.Ebukam].
Q113:03 (13:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 18-B.Lance [54-B.Dorlus]. ATL-55-Z.Smith was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: ATL-26-C.Henderson has returned to the game. Play 253 (13:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 18-B.Lance [54-B.Dorlus]. ATL-55-Z.Smith was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: ATL-26-C.Henderson has returned to the game.
Q112:57 (12:57) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play. Play 279 (12:57) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play.
Q112:50 (12:50) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 49 for 25 yards (4-O.Delp). Play 321 (12:50) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 49 for 25 yards (4-O.Delp).
Q112:36 (12:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch pushed ob at NO 42 for 9 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 347 (12:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch pushed ob at NO 42 for 9 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q111:59 (11:59) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 39 for 3 yards (99-C.Young). Play 377 (11:59) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 39 for 3 yards (99-C.Young).
Q111:15 (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London. Play 399 (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London.
Q111:10 (11:10) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 36 for 3 yards (98-T.Wilson). Play 422 (11:10) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 36 for 3 yards (98-T.Wilson).
Q110:29 (10:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 4-J.Dotson. Play 444 (10:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 4-J.Dotson.
Q110:25 (10:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on ATL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 36 - No Play. Play 467 (10:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on ATL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 36 - No Play.
Q110:25 (10:25) 16-J.Bailey punts 28 yards to NO 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-B.Brown. Play 491 (10:25) 16-J.Bailey punts 28 yards to NO 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.
Q110:19 (10:19) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at NO 13 - No Play. Play 511 (10:19) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at NO 13 - No Play.
Q110:19 (10:19) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 5-K.Miller left end to NO 16 for -2 yards (29-S.Brown). Play 542 (10:19) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 5-K.Miller left end to NO 16 for -2 yards (29-S.Brown).
Q109:40 (9:40) PENALTY on NO-4-O.Delp, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 16 - No Play. Play 575 (9:40) PENALTY on NO-4-O.Delp, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 16 - No Play.
Q109:19 (9:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 34 for 23 yards (26-C.Henderson) [96-Z.Harrison]. Play 599 (9:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 34 for 23 yards (26-C.Henderson) [96-Z.Harrison].
Q108:46 (8:46) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 38 for 4 yards (0-D.Deablo). Play 629 (8:46) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 38 for 4 yards (0-D.Deablo).
Q108:07 (8:07) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 43 for 5 yards (33-B.Bowman). Play 651 (8:07) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 43 for 5 yards (33-B.Bowman).
Q107:31 (7:31) 6-T.Shough up the middle to NO 45 for 2 yards (54-B.Dorlus). Play 676 (7:31) 6-T.Shough up the middle to NO 45 for 2 yards (54-B.Dorlus).
Q106:55 (6:55) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 38 for 17 yards (0-D.Deablo). Play 698 (6:55) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 38 for 17 yards (0-D.Deablo).
Q106:20 (6:20) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 36 for 2 yards (56-H.Perkins). Play 728 (6:20) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 36 for 2 yards (56-H.Perkins).
Q105:58 (5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. Play 755 (5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.
Q105:52 (5:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 34 for 2 yards (3-J.Bates; 21-M.Hughes). Play 778 (5:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 34 for 2 yards (3-J.Bates; 21-M.Hughes).
Q105:08 (5:08) 10-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 803 (5:08) 10-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q105:03 (5:03) 15-Br.Robinson right tackle to ATL 45 for 3 yards (94-C.Jordan; 21-J.Reid). Play 829 (5:03) 15-Br.Robinson right tackle to ATL 45 for 3 yards (94-C.Jordan; 21-J.Reid).
Q104:29 (4:29) 15-Br.Robinson left end to ATL 46 for 1 yard (50-C.Wooden; 40-F.Diggs). Play 858 (4:29) 15-Br.Robinson left end to ATL 46 for 1 yard (50-C.Wooden; 40-F.Diggs).
Q103:49 (3:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 38 for -8 yards (98-T.Wilson). Play 880 (3:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 38 for -8 yards (98-T.Wilson).
Q103:04 (3:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-B.Brown to NO 20 for 2 yards (89-C.Woerner; 53-K.Daniels). Play 900 (3:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-B.Brown to NO 20 for 2 yards (89-C.Woerner; 53-K.Daniels).
Q102:52 (2:52) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London, 26-C.Henderson). FUMBLES (26-C.Henderson), RECOVERED by ATL-26-C.Henderson at NO 22. Play 926 (2:52) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London, 26-C.Henderson). FUMBLES (26-C.Henderson), RECOVERED by ATL-26-C.Henderson at NO 22.
Q102:47 (2:47) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 19 for 3 yards (97-K.Boyd; 20-P.Werner). PENALTY on NO-97-K.Boyd, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 19. Play 948 (2:47) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 19 for 3 yards (97-K.Boyd; 20-P.Werner). PENALTY on NO-97-K.Boyd, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 19.
Q102:25 (2:25) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 7-Bi.Robinson (99-C.Young). Play 1024 (2:25) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 7-Bi.Robinson (99-C.Young).
Q102:20 (2:20) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 11 for 3 yards (98-T.Wilson; 1-K.McKinstry). Play 1059 (2:20) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 11 for 3 yards (98-T.Wilson; 1-K.McKinstry).
Q101:40 (1:40) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 8 for 3 yards (98-T.Wilson). Play 1081 (1:40) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 8 for 3 yards (98-T.Wilson).
Q100:56 Timeout #1 by ATL at 00:56. Play 1115 Timeout #1 by ATL at 00:56.
Q100:56 (:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson (97-K.Boyd). PENALTY on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8 - No Play. Play 1103 (:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson (97-K.Boyd). PENALTY on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8 - No Play.
Q100:52 (:52) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1144 (:52) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q100:48 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 1167 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q100:48 6-N.Folk kicks 60 yards from ATL 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 31 for 26 yards (19-C.Blair). PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31. Play 1182 6-N.Folk kicks 60 yards from ATL 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 31 for 26 yards (19-C.Blair). PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31.
Q100:44 (:44) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 10 for 44 yards (31-X.Watts) [22-Y.Abdullah]. Play 1216 (:44) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 10 for 44 yards (31-X.Watts) [22-Y.Abdullah].
Q100:07 (:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 18-B.Lance to ATL 3 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [22-Y.Abdullah]. Play 1241 (:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 18-B.Lance to ATL 3 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [22-Y.Abdullah].
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1266 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1286 (15:00) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q214:57 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 1309 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q214:57 10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ATL 35. Play 1324 10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ATL 35.
Q214:57 (14:57) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts pushed ob at ATL 44 for 9 yards (40-F.Diggs). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 1341 (14:57) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts pushed ob at ATL 44 for 9 yards (40-F.Diggs). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q214:27 (14:27) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to ATL 49 for 5 yards (93-N.Shepherd). Play 1371 (14:27) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to ATL 49 for 5 yards (93-N.Shepherd).
Q213:48 (13:48) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to NO 44 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 7-J.Sanker). Play 1395 (13:48) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to NO 44 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 7-J.Sanker).
Q213:06 (13:06) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to NO 42 for 2 yards (94-C.Jordan; 28-D.Stutsman). Play 1417 (13:06) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to NO 42 for 2 yards (94-C.Jordan; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q212:37 (12:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to NO 39 for 3 yards (40-F.Diggs; 93-N.Shepherd). Play 1439 (12:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to NO 39 for 3 yards (40-F.Diggs; 93-N.Shepherd).
Q211:52 (11:52) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to NO 39 for no gain (7-J.Sanker). Play 1461 (11:52) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to NO 39 for no gain (7-J.Sanker).
Q211:15 (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London to NO 12 for 27 yards (29-Q.Riley; 23-J.Blackmon). Play 1483 (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London to NO 12 for 27 yards (29-Q.Riley; 23-J.Blackmon).
Q210:28 (10:28) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 9 for 3 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 1508 (10:28) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 9 for 3 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q209:47 (9:47) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 15-Br.Robinson to NO 4 for 5 yards (97-K.Boyd; 28-D.Stutsman). Play 1530 (9:47) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 15-Br.Robinson to NO 4 for 5 yards (97-K.Boyd; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q209:03 (9:03) 15-Br.Robinson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1555 (9:03) 15-Br.Robinson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q208:59 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 1578 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q208:59 6-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to NO 0. 38-J.Price to NO 29 for 29 yards (23-D.Hellams; 28-M.Ford). Play 1593 6-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to NO 0. 38-J.Price to NO 29 for 29 yards (23-D.Hellams; 28-M.Ford).
Q208:54 (8:54) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 33 for 4 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 1623 (8:54) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 33 for 4 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q208:12 (8:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele (29-S.Brown). Play 1645 (8:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele (29-S.Brown).
Q208:05 (8:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave. Play 1668 (8:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave.
Q208:00 (8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. Play 1691 (8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.
Q207:52 (7:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 5-D.London to NO 49 for 37 yards (21-J.Reid). Penalty on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Illegal Contact, declined. Play 1711 (7:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 5-D.London to NO 49 for 37 yards (21-J.Reid). Penalty on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q207:33 (7:33) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to NO 38 for 11 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 50-C.Wooden). Play 1754 (7:33) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to NO 38 for 11 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 50-C.Wooden).
Q206:46 (6:46) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 30 for 8 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 1776 (6:46) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 30 for 8 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q206:03 (6:03) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to NO 25 for 5 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 23-J.Blackmon). Play 1798 (6:03) 15-Br.Robinson up the middle to NO 25 for 5 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 23-J.Blackmon).
Q205:21 (5:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to NO 24 for 1 yard (21-J.Reid). Play 1820 (5:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to NO 24 for 1 yard (21-J.Reid).
Q204:37 (4:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to NO 14 for 10 yards (98-T.Wilson). Play 1845 (4:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to NO 14 for 10 yards (98-T.Wilson).
Q203:56 (3:56) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to NO 11 for 3 yards (99-C.Young; 92-D.Godchaux). Play 1870 (3:56) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to NO 11 for 3 yards (99-C.Young; 92-D.Godchaux).
Q203:18 (3:18) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner (40-F.Diggs). Play 1892 (3:18) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner (40-F.Diggs).
Q203:14 (3:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus. Play 1915 (3:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus.
Q203:10 (3:10) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 1938 (3:10) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q203:07 6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from ATL 35 to NO 3. 19-B.Brown to NO 26 for 23 yards (34-J.Robinson). Play 1958 6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from ATL 35 to NO 3. 19-B.Brown to NO 26 for 23 yards (34-J.Robinson).
Q203:00 (3:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 28 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo). Play 1988 (3:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 28 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo).
Q202:26 (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 46 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts; 56-H.Perkins). Play 2013 (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 46 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts; 56-H.Perkins).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 47 for 1 yard (31-X.Watts). Play 2038 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 47 for 1 yard (31-X.Watts).
Q201:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance [22-Y.Abdullah]. Play 2075 (1:55) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance [22-Y.Abdullah].
Q201:51 (1:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 41 for 12 yards (21-M.Hughes). Play 2098 (1:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 41 for 12 yards (21-M.Hughes).
Q201:46 (1:46) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at ATL 48 for -7 yards (sack split by 31-X.Watts and 56-H.Perkins). Play 2128 (1:46) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at ATL 48 for -7 yards (sack split by 31-X.Watts and 56-H.Perkins).
Q201:22 (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 42 for 6 yards (26-C.Henderson). Play 2153 (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 42 for 6 yards (26-C.Henderson).
Q200:57 (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. Play 2178 (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance.
Q200:49 (:49) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 42 - No Play. Play 2201 (:49) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 42 - No Play.
Q200:49 (:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. Play 2225 (:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.
Q200:42 (:42) 15-Br.Robinson right tackle to ATL 13 for 5 yards (40-F.Diggs; 91-V.Broughton). Play 2245 (:42) 15-Br.Robinson right tackle to ATL 13 for 5 yards (40-F.Diggs; 91-V.Broughton).
Q200:37 Timeout #1 by NO at 00:37. Play 2279 Timeout #1 by NO at 00:37.
Q200:37 (:37) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to ATL 19 for 6 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 2267 (:37) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to ATL 19 for 6 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2299 Q315:00 6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from ATL 35 to NO 3. 19-B.Brown to NO 33 for 30 yards (56-H.Perkins; 19-C.Blair). Play 2319 6-N.Folk kicks 62 yards from ATL 35 to NO 3. 19-B.Brown to NO 33 for 30 yards (56-H.Perkins; 19-C.Blair).
Q314:55 (14:55) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 37 for 4 yards (99-C.Thomas). Play 2342 (14:55) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 37 for 4 yards (99-C.Thomas).
Q314:18 (14:18) PENALTY on ATL-54-B.Dorlus, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play. Play 2364 (14:18) PENALTY on ATL-54-B.Dorlus, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play.
Q313:55 (13:55) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 44 for 2 yards (95-G.Dexter; 99-C.Thomas). Play 2388 (13:55) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 44 for 2 yards (95-G.Dexter; 99-C.Thomas).
Q313:17 (13:17) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 45 for 11 yards (26-C.Henderson). Play 2410 (13:17) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 45 for 11 yards (26-C.Henderson).
Q312:35 (12:35) 5-K.Miller left end to ATL 46 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith). Play 2435 (12:35) 5-K.Miller left end to ATL 46 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith).
Q311:59 (11:59) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 39 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [99-C.Thomas]. Play 2457 (11:59) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 39 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [99-C.Thomas].
Q311:25 (11:25) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 30 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts). Play 2487 (11:25) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 30 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q310:45 (10:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara. Play 2512 (10:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara.
Q310:39 (10:39) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 27 for 3 yards (99-C.Thomas). Play 2535 (10:39) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 27 for 3 yards (99-C.Thomas).
Q309:59 (9:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 17 for 10 yards (26-C.Henderson). Play 2557 (9:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 17 for 10 yards (26-C.Henderson).
Q309:29 (9:29) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at ATL 17 - No Play. Play 2587 (9:29) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at ATL 17 - No Play.
Q309:25 (9:25) 19-B.Brown left end to ATL 20 for -5 yards (21-M.Hughes). Play 2621 (9:25) 19-B.Brown left end to ATL 20 for -5 yards (21-M.Hughes).
Q308:49 (8:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 20 - No Play. Play 2643 (8:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 20 - No Play.
Q308:26 (8:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 8 for 7 yards (56-H.Perkins). Play 2667 (8:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 8 for 7 yards (56-H.Perkins).
Q307:47 (7:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Vele (99-C.Thomas). Play 2692 (7:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Vele (99-C.Thomas).
Q307:40 (7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 2720 (7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q307:38 10-D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to ATL 3. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 26 for 23 yards (38-J.Price; 43-C.Donaldson). Play 2740 10-D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to ATL 3. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 26 for 23 yards (38-J.Price; 43-C.Donaldson).
Q307:32 (7:32) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to ATL 30 for 4 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 2770 (7:32) 7-Bi.Robinson left end to ATL 30 for 4 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q306:55 (6:55) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 4-J.Dotson to NO 47 for 23 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Penalty on NO-99-C.Young, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 2792 (6:55) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 4-J.Dotson to NO 47 for 23 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Penalty on NO-99-C.Young, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q306:27 (6:27) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to NO 38 for 9 yards (28-D.Stutsman). Play 2828 (6:27) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to NO 38 for 9 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
Q305:41 (5:41) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 28 for 10 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 28-D.Stutsman). Play 2850 (5:41) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to NO 28 for 10 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q304:55 (4:55) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to NO 30 for -2 yards (20-P.Werner, 99-C.Young). Play 2872 (4:55) 15-Br.Robinson left tackle to NO 30 for -2 yards (20-P.Werner, 99-C.Young).
Q304:14 (4:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-Bi.Robinson to NO 28 for 2 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 2894 (4:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-Bi.Robinson to NO 28 for 2 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q303:40 (3:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at NO 14 for 14 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 2919 (3:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at NO 14 for 14 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q302:53 (2:53) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson right tackle to NO 8 for 6 yards (97-K.Boyd). Play 2949 (2:53) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson right tackle to NO 8 for 6 yards (97-K.Boyd).
Q302:15 (2:15) 15-Br.Robinson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2971 (2:15) 15-Br.Robinson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q302:11 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 2994 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q302:11 6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from ATL 35 to NO 4. 19-B.Brown to NO 32 for 28 yards (42-J.Woods). Play 3009 6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from ATL 35 to NO 4. 19-B.Brown to NO 32 for 28 yards (42-J.Woods).
Q302:05 (2:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 82-T.Welch. Play 3044 (2:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 82-T.Welch.
Q301:57 (1:57) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 5-K.Miller. Play 3067 (1:57) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 5-K.Miller.
Q301:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. PENALTY on ATL-12-Av.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at NO 32 - No Play. Play 3102 (1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. PENALTY on ATL-12-Av.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at NO 32 - No Play.
Q301:46 (1:46) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (22-Y.Abdullah). Play 3136 (1:46) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (22-Y.Abdullah).
Q301:41 (1:41) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave. Play 3171 (1:41) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave.
Q301:38 (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance (21-M.Hughes). Play 3194 (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance (21-M.Hughes).
Q301:33 (1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts). Play 3217 (1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q301:08 (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 20 for 5 yards (3-J.Bates). PENALTY on NO-75-T.Fuaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25 - No Play. Play 3242 (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 20 for 5 yards (3-J.Bates). PENALTY on NO-75-T.Fuaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25 - No Play.
Q300:34 (:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on NO-83-J.Johnson, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 35 - No Play. Play 3278 (:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on NO-83-J.Johnson, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 35 - No Play.
Q300:30 (:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 37 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins) [22-Y.Abdullah]. Play 3312 (:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 37 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins) [22-Y.Abdullah].
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3337 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 33 for 4 yards (26-C.Henderson). Play 3357 (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 33 for 4 yards (26-C.Henderson).
Q414:28 (14:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 16 for 17 yards (26-C.Henderson). Play 3387 (14:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 16 for 17 yards (26-C.Henderson).
Q413:59 (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus). Play 3412 (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus).
Q413:33 (13:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (56-H.Perkins). Play 3434 (13:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (56-H.Perkins).
Q413:28 (13:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 5 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes). Play 3457 (13:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 5 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes).
Q413:03 (13:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3482 (13:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q413:00 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 3505 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q413:00 10-D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to ATL 3. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 28 for 25 yards (44-I.Stalbird). Play 3520 10-D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to ATL 3. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 28 for 25 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
Q412:55 (12:55) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to NO 44 for 28 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 3550 (12:55) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to NO 44 for 28 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q412:09 (12:09) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to NO 41 for 3 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 3582 (12:09) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to NO 41 for 3 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q411:27 (11:27) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to NO 36 for 5 yards (20-P.Werner; 23-J.Blackmon). Play 3604 (11:27) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard to NO 36 for 5 yards (20-P.Werner; 23-J.Blackmon).
Q410:42 (10:42) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 31 for 5 yards (7-J.Sanker; 29-Q.Riley). Play 3626 (10:42) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 31 for 5 yards (7-J.Sanker; 29-Q.Riley).
Q409:57 (9:57) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 4-J.Dotson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3648 (9:57) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 4-J.Dotson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q409:50 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 3674 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q409:50 6-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to NO 0. 19-B.Brown to NO 26 for 26 yards (19-C.Blair). Play 3689 6-N.Folk kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to NO 0. 19-B.Brown to NO 26 for 26 yards (19-C.Blair).
Q409:45 (9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (3-J.Bates). Play 3719 (9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (3-J.Bates).
Q409:39 (9:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at NO 29 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins). Play 3754 (9:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at NO 29 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins).
Q409:02 (9:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 35 for 6 yards (31-X.Watts). Play 3781 (9:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 35 for 6 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q408:33 (8:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play. Play 3806 (8:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play.
Q408:33 (8:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). Play 3830 (8:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam).
Q408:29 (8:29) 15-Br.Robinson left guard to NO 18 for 3 yards (95-J.Ridgeway; 98-T.Wilson). Play 3850 (8:29) 15-Br.Robinson left guard to NO 18 for 3 yards (95-J.Ridgeway; 98-T.Wilson).
Q407:43 (7:43) 15-Br.Robinson right end to NO 11 for 7 yards (99-C.Young). Play 3879 (7:43) 15-Br.Robinson right end to NO 11 for 7 yards (99-C.Young).
Q406:58 (6:58) 15-Br.Robinson left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3901 (6:58) 15-Br.Robinson left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q406:52 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. Play 3929 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q406:52 6-N.Folk kicks 64 yards from ATL 35 to NO 1. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 23 yards (56-H.Perkins). Play 3944 6-N.Folk kicks 64 yards from ATL 35 to NO 1. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 23 yards (56-H.Perkins).
Q406:47 (6:47) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 33 for 9 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 3983 (6:47) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 33 for 9 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q406:18 (6:18) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 36 for 3 yards (95-G.Dexter; 99-C.Thomas). Play 4005 (6:18) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 36 for 3 yards (95-G.Dexter; 99-C.Thomas).
Q405:40 (5:40) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave (23-D.Hellams). Play 4027 (5:40) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave (23-D.Hellams).
Q405:33 (5:33) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 42 for 6 yards (96-Z.Harrison). Play 4050 (5:33) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 42 for 6 yards (96-Z.Harrison).
Q404:53 (4:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to NO 47 for 5 yards (26-C.Henderson). Play 4072 (4:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to NO 47 for 5 yards (26-C.Henderson).
Q404:28 (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 46 for -1 yards (23-D.Hellams). Play 4097 (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 46 for -1 yards (23-D.Hellams).
Q403:47 (3:47) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (31-X.Watts; 42-J.Woods). Play 4122 (3:47) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (31-X.Watts; 42-J.Woods).
Q403:07 (3:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele. Play 4144 (3:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele.
Q403:02 (3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam]. Play 4167 (3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam].
Q402:31 (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 22 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins). Play 4192 (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 22 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins).
Q402:08 (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 43-C.Donaldson to ATL 16 for 6 yards (53-K.Daniels). Play 4217 (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 43-C.Donaldson to ATL 16 for 6 yards (53-K.Daniels).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 11 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins). Play 4242 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 11 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins).
Q401:23 (1:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 11 - No Play. Play 4274 (1:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 11 - No Play.
Q401:19 (1:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4308 (1:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:13 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 4334 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q401:13 10-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to ATL 6. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 23 for 17 yards. Play 4349 10-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to ATL 6. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 23 for 17 yards.
Q401:09 (1:09) 9-M.Penix kneels to ATL 22 for -1 yards. Play 4372 (1:09) 9-M.Penix kneels to ATL 22 for -1 yards.
Q400:38 (:38) 9-M.Penix kneels to ATL 21 for -1 yards. Play 4394 (:38) 9-M.Penix kneels to ATL 21 for -1 yards.
Down
1
Game seconds remaining 2752
Half seconds remaining 952
Quarter seconds remaining 52
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -6.62 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 4
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 4
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2752
Half seconds remaining 952
Quarter seconds remaining 52
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 92
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2752
Half seconds remaining 952
Quarter seconds remaining 52
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost ATL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:40 Kick · NO (7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Fourth down decision cost NO 3.66 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.1245032099373125
Yardline 100 8
Elapsed share 0.6222222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1360
Half seconds remaining 1360
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1111388134197304 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11114/0.07455/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NO -2.26 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q109:40 Penalty · NO (9:40) PENALTY on NO-4-O.Delp, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -1.61 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 12
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3280
Half seconds remaining 1480
Quarter seconds remaining 580
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 7
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3280
Half seconds remaining 1480
Quarter seconds remaining 580
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -0.88 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 12
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3280
Half seconds remaining 1480
Quarter seconds remaining 580
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 7
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3280
Half seconds remaining 1480
Quarter seconds remaining 580
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q110:25 Penalty · ATL (10:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on ATL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO 1.43 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 12
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 41
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3325
Half seconds remaining 1525
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 7
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 36
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3325
Half seconds remaining 1525
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO 1.26 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 12
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 41
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3325
Half seconds remaining 1525
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 7
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 36
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 3325
Half seconds remaining 1525
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost ATL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:18 Penalty · NO (14:18) PENALTY on ATL-54-B.Dorlus, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO 1.37 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1758
Half seconds remaining 1758
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 6
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1758
Half seconds remaining 1758
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO 0.89 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1758
Half seconds remaining 1758
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 6
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1758
Half seconds remaining 1758
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q301:52 Penalty · NO (1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. PENALTY on ATL-12-Av.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at NO 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO 1.26 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 1006
Half seconds remaining 1006
Quarter seconds remaining 106
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 1006
Half seconds remaining 1006
Quarter seconds remaining 106
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO 4.19 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 1006
Half seconds remaining 1006
Quarter seconds remaining 106
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 1006
Half seconds remaining 1006
Quarter seconds remaining 106
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q110:19 Penalty · NO (10:19) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at NO 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO 1.13 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 5
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 82
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3319
Half seconds remaining 1519
Quarter seconds remaining 619
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3319
Half seconds remaining 1519
Quarter seconds remaining 619
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO 0.6 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 5
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 82
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3319
Half seconds remaining 1519
Quarter seconds remaining 619
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3319
Half seconds remaining 1519
Quarter seconds remaining 619
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q309:29 Penalty · NO (9:29) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at ATL 17 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO 0.73 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1465
Half seconds remaining 1465
Quarter seconds remaining 565
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1465
Half seconds remaining 1465
Quarter seconds remaining 565
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO 0.59 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1465
Half seconds remaining 1465
Quarter seconds remaining 565
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 17
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1465
Half seconds remaining 1465
Quarter seconds remaining 565
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q208:00 Fourth down · NO (8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0.48 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.3460397733824443
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.3666666666666666
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2280
Half seconds remaining 480
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 480
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1667982223268111 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16680/ NA/0.16201 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:49 Penalty · NO (8:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on ATL-92-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO 0.29 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1429
Half seconds remaining 1429
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 15
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1429
Half seconds remaining 1429
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO 0.85 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1429
Half seconds remaining 1429
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 15
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1429
Half seconds remaining 1429
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q408:33 Penalty · NO (8:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -0.01 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 6
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 70
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 513
Half seconds remaining 513
Quarter seconds remaining 513
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 513
Half seconds remaining 513
Quarter seconds remaining 513
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -0.75 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 6
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 70
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 513
Half seconds remaining 513
Quarter seconds remaining 513
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 513
Half seconds remaining 513
Quarter seconds remaining 513
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:50 Fourth down · NO (12:50) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 49 for 25 yards (4-O.Delp). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 18
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 1.298254491850765
Yardline 100 81
Elapsed share 0.03611111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3470
Half seconds remaining 1670
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 770
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.300699171510225 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26275/ NA/0.30070 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 73 recorded events Q103:04 Fourth down · ATL (3:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-B.Brown to NO 20 for 2 yards (89-C.Woerner; 53-K.Daniels). + Fourth down decision cost ATL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.6769956392014576
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.1988888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam ATL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2884
Half seconds remaining 1084
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 184
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6507619949712302 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60687/ NA/0.65076 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:49 Fourth down · NO (:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.2143617120804567
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.4863888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q301:33 Fourth down · NO (1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.0828104052216258
Yardline 100 43
Elapsed share 0.7241666666666666
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q413:59 Fourth down · NO (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.06978664152663468
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.7669444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q408:33 Fourth down · NO (8:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.04858041115936056
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.8575
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21 Q403:02 Fourth down · NO (3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam]. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.0336308099398875
Yardline 100 50
Elapsed share 0.9494444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q113:34 Kick · ATL 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Extra point points above expectation ATL 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q112:57 Penalty · NO (12:57) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch. PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:25 Fourth down · ATL (10:25) 16-J.Bailey punts 28 yards to NO 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-B.Brown. + Fourth down decision cost ATL 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 1.105070962707599
Yardline 100 41
Elapsed share 0.0763888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam ATL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q105:08 Kick · NO (5:08) 10-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0.04 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.7770017552021513
Yardline 100 34
Elapsed share 0.1644444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q102:52 Fumble · NO (2:52) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London, 26-C.Henderson). FUMBLES (26-C.Henderson), RECOVERED by ATL-26-C.Henderson at NO 22. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NO -0.34 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation ATL 0.34 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:47 Penalty · ATL (2:47) 7-Bi.Robinson right end to NO 19 for 3 yards (97-K.Boyd; 20-P.Werner). PENALTY on NO-97-K.Boyd, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 19. + Observed ruling consequence ATL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:48 Kick · ATL 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Extra point points above expectation ATL 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q100:48 Penalty · NO 6-N.Folk kicks 60 yards from ATL 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 31 for 26 yards (19-C.Blair). PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:57 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q208:59 Kick · ATL 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Extra point points above expectation ATL 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q207:52 Fourth down · ATL (7:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 5-D.London to NO 49 for 37 yards (21-J.Reid). Penalty on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Illegal Contact, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ATL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q203:10 Kick · ATL (3:10) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Fourth down decision cost ATL 2 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ATL
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team ATL
Home team NO
Away total 23
Home total 24.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.2507186761000283
Yardline 100 11
Elapsed share 0.4472222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam ATL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q200:49 Penalty · NO (:49) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:55 Fourth down · ATL (6:55) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 4-J.Dotson to NO 47 for 23 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Penalty on NO-99-C.Young, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ATL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q302:11 Kick · ATL 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Extra point points above expectation ATL 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q301:08 Penalty · NO (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 20 for 5 yards (3-J.Bates). PENALTY on NO-75-T.Fuaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q300:34 Penalty · NO (:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on NO-83-J.Johnson, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:00 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q409:50 Kick · ATL 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Extra point points above expectation ATL 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q406:52 Kick · ATL 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. + Extra point points above expectation ATL 0.18 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q401:23 Penalty · NO (1:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson. PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:13 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q405:40 Execution · NO (5:40) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave (23-D.Hellams). + Interception worthy throws NO 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q113:25 Execution · NO (13:25) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at NO 29 for 2 yards [52-S.Ebukam]. + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q109:19 Execution · NO (9:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 34 for 23 yards (26-C.Henderson) [96-Z.Harrison]. + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q108:07 Execution · NO (8:07) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 43 for 5 yards (33-B.Bowman). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q106:55 Execution · NO (6:55) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 38 for 17 yards (0-D.Deablo). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q105:52 Execution · NO (5:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 34 for 2 yards (3-J.Bates; 21-M.Hughes). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q100:44 Execution · NO (:44) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 10 for 44 yards (31-X.Watts) [22-Y.Abdullah]. + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q100:07 Execution · NO (:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 18-B.Lance to ATL 3 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [22-Y.Abdullah]. + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q203:00 Execution · NO (3:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 28 for 2 yards (0-D.Deablo). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q202:26 Execution · NO (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 46 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts; 56-H.Perkins). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Execution · NO (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 47 for 1 yard (31-X.Watts). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions NO 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q201:51 Execution · NO (1:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 41 for 12 yards (21-M.Hughes). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q201:22 Execution · NO (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 42 for 6 yards (26-C.Henderson). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q313:17 Execution · NO (13:17) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to ATL 45 for 11 yards (26-C.Henderson). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions NO 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q311:59 Execution · NO (11:59) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 39 for 7 yards (26-C.Henderson) [99-C.Thomas]. + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q311:25 Execution · NO (11:25) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 30 for 9 yards (31-X.Watts). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q309:59 Execution · NO (9:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at ATL 17 for 10 yards (26-C.Henderson). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q308:26 Execution · NO (8:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 8 for 7 yards (56-H.Perkins). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q300:30 Execution · NO (:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to ATL 37 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins) [22-Y.Abdullah]. + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q415:00 Execution · NO (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at ATL 33 for 4 yards (26-C.Henderson). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q414:28 Execution · NO (14:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 14-D.Vele to ATL 16 for 17 yards (26-C.Henderson). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Contested targets NO 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions NO 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q413:28 Execution · NO (13:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 5 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q409:02 Execution · NO (9:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 35 for 6 yards (31-X.Watts). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q404:53 Execution · NO (4:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to NO 47 for 5 yards (26-C.Henderson). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Contested targets NO 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q404:28 Execution · NO (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 46 for -1 yards (23-D.Hellams). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q402:31 Execution · NO (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 22 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q402:08 Execution · NO (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 43-C.Donaldson to ATL 16 for 6 yards (53-K.Daniels). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q402:00 Execution · NO (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 11 for 5 yards (56-H.Perkins). + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q401:19 Execution · NO (1:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions NO 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q115:00 Execution · ATL (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to ATL 32 for 12 yards (23-J.Blackmon). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q114:22 Execution · ATL (14:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to ATL 41 for 9 yards (7-J.Sanker). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q112:36 Execution · ATL (12:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch pushed ob at NO 42 for 9 yards (29-Q.Riley). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q214:57 Execution · ATL (14:57) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts pushed ob at ATL 44 for 9 yards (40-F.Diggs). The ball spot was assisted by replay. + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q211:15 Execution · ATL (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London to NO 12 for 27 yards (29-Q.Riley; 23-J.Blackmon). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q209:47 Execution · ATL (9:47) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 15-Br.Robinson to NO 4 for 5 yards (97-K.Boyd; 28-D.Stutsman). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q205:21 Execution · ATL (5:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to NO 24 for 1 yard (21-J.Reid). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q204:37 Execution · ATL (4:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to NO 14 for 10 yards (98-T.Wilson). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q200:37 Execution · ATL (:37) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to ATL 19 for 6 yards (7-J.Sanker). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q304:14 Execution · ATL (4:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-Bi.Robinson to NO 28 for 2 yards (23-J.Blackmon). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q303:40 Execution · ATL (3:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at NO 14 for 14 yards (29-Q.Riley). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q412:55 Execution · ATL (12:55) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to NO 44 for 28 yards (23-J.Blackmon). + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q409:57 Execution · ATL (9:57) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 4-J.Dotson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets ATL 15 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 20/20 eligible events modeled
Q113:27 Execution · NO (13:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (26-C.Henderson). ATL-26-C.Henderson was injured during the play. + Contested targets NO 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q208:12 Execution · NO (8:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele (29-S.Brown). + Contested targets NO 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Q409:45 Execution · NO (9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (3-J.Bates). + Contested targets NO 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 12f8b0b887c0e9c5b5e57ef62dcb9881fdc8d45a590915dc613a8de992904045ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 9, 2026, 12:22 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 4e23c0989c2b7754d37ba62c42b3fceb88f5f68a6b318bef1fd1c78997d3a60bnflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 9, 2026, 1:40 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1b25ca6f5f247bf2e8138941b507cccae93b732bf69b86fc6a66da1994dd8259Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: d72ba582d34aa6f2c8b4a56aaf7b8bea27761210b0c6f07bb8f8fe418c0cc9e1
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 12 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 8:33 AM UTC Version 11 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 2:44 AM UTC Version 10 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 8, 2026, 8:37 PM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 8, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 8, 2026, 2:47 AM UTC Version 7 ↗ Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 7, 2026, 9:03 PM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 3:21 PM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Oct 6, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 10:11 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 8:58 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 6, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-17
Game seconds remaining 1849
Quarter seconds remaining 49
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1234396616722609 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11115/0.10179/0.12344 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-21
Game seconds remaining 993
Half seconds remaining 993
Quarter seconds remaining 93
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.0195162801182446 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01952/0.01638/0.01716 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
-21
Game seconds remaining 839
Half seconds remaining 839
Quarter seconds remaining 839
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.01976838024965932 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01977/0.01408/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 513
Half seconds remaining 513
Quarter seconds remaining 513
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.001972212557749724 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00197/ NA/0.00166 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-28
Game seconds remaining 182
Half seconds remaining 182
Quarter seconds remaining 182
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.0003608383213072227 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00036/0.00022/0.00031 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets NO 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 3325
Half seconds remaining 1525
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6709106278026257 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65935/0.66734/0.67091 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 3008
Half seconds remaining 1208
Quarter seconds remaining 308
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3661791898566223 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36618/0.36578/0.32933 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NO -2.26 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
14
Game seconds remaining 1990
Half seconds remaining 190
Quarter seconds remaining 190
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8657781195193696 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.86578/0.84577/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ATL 0.05 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 48/48 eligible events modeled