Skip to content
Hmm 3 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? 2 defensive penalties kept one DAL drive alive.
2 defensive penalties extended one DAL drive on third or fourth down. How this rating was calculated Hmm (3/5): 2 defensive penalties kept one DAL drive alive.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: HOU by 0.7; actual result: DAL by 4.
The 4.7-point difference was matched or exceeded in 474 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 HOU minus DAL penalty-count difference: 7 versus 0.2 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 124 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 48.08%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: HOU by 3.0; actual result: DAL by 4. The difference was 7 points.
4,205 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Hmm · 3/5 2 defensive penalties gave DAL first downs on third or fourth down during one drive.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Houston Texans by 3
Final margin Dallas Cowboys by 4
Difference 7 points
Dallas Cowboys covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
4,205 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (57.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score HOU by 0.7
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Houston Texans chance to win during the game 150 preplay estimates across 184 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 34 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 6 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 06:59 Recorded game event
Dallas Cowboys · Play 2677 (6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 19-R.Flournoy (5-J.Pitre) [51-W.Anderson]. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at HOU 3 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on HOU awarded DAL a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. 2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on DAL drive 14; review the sequence together. Estimated chance to win moved 8.7 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 08:37 Recorded game event
Dallas Cowboys · Play 2576 (8:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 3-G.Pickens (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 8 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on HOU awarded DAL a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. 2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on DAL drive 14; review the sequence together. Estimated chance to win moved 5.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:30 Recorded game event
Houston Texans THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 184 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 184 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 17-B.Aubrey kicks 57 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 8. 13-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell; 30-H.Luepke). PENALTY on HOU-30-W.Woodaz, Face Mask, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 29. Play 40 17-B.Aubrey kicks 57 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 8. 13-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell; 30-H.Luepke). PENALTY on HOU-30-W.Woodaz, Face Mask, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 29.
Q114:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to DAL 40 for 45 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 75 (14:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to DAL 40 for 45 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q114:11 (14:11) 32-D.Montgomery right end to DAL 38 for 2 yards (7-R.Gary). Play 101 (14:11) 32-D.Montgomery right end to DAL 38 for 2 yards (7-R.Gary).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 40 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q306:59 Penalty · DAL (6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 19-R.Flournoy (5-J.Pitre) [51-W.Anderson]. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at HOU 3 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU -14.22 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 1
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1314
Half seconds remaining 1314
Quarter seconds remaining 414
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1cc443d2167df1241f78d8ad97cdbb61ccc44dbec518ec76e09f6fcf2b418aafDAL by 4
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
474 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 124 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Brad Allen Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.4 accepted penalties for 89.2 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.3 / 40.8 yd per game. Away teams: 6.1 / 48.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Brad Allen; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Dallas Cowboys · Drive extending penalties DAL received 2 first downs from HOU penalties on third or fourth down during drive 14. Review these plays together; this does not establish that any call was wrong.
Houston Texans · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Houston Texans · Opponent penalties Opponent DAL was charged 6 penalties for 47 yards.
Dallas Cowboys · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Dallas Cowboys · Opponent penalties Opponent HOU was charged 13 penalties for 90 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 150 model estimates across 184 recorded game entries.
34 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (184 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence -1.48 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence -0.8 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence -1.86 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence -0.58 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence -9.86 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence -3.56 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence -14.22 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence -6.73 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence 2.35 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence 0.2 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence -5.79 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence -0.81 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence 4.4 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Ruling expected points consequence 0.38 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0.03 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30974/0.30947/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65594/0.68133/0.65612 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0.13 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29164/0.29036/0.25347 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0.2 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62154/ NA/0.61950 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26736/ NA/0.30000 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.61215/ NA/0.61412 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0.86 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32058/0.31194/0.31135 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 2.4 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71411/0.69012/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 2.29 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24897/0.24388/0.26678 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74714/0.80524/0.74474 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65012/ NA/0.67633 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24409/ NA/0.26929 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62205/ NA/0.64123 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19398/ NA/0.09256 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
HOU Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
DAL Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
HOU Field goal points above expectation 1.73 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DAL Field goal points above expectation -0.45 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
HOU Extra point points above expectation 0.07 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
DAL Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 11th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
HOU Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 184 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
DAL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 184 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
HOU Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.91 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
56 of 56 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 56 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 2.1 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
56 of 56 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 56 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.38 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 51 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.35 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 51 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.47 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.47 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.43 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
· Play 3850
(3:30) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on HOU-69-E.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 14.3 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 09:34 Recorded game event
Dallas Cowboys · Play 1299 (9:34) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 27 for 8 yards (96-L.Hall; 35-J.Hansen). PENALTY on HOU-96-L.Hall, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 27.
Defensive penalty on HOU awarded DAL a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 7.9 percentage points across this play.
Show 2 more plays Q4 · 02:34 Recorded game event
Houston Texans · Play 3933 (2:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-6-D.Ezeiruaku, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:16 Recorded game event
Houston Texans · Play 4486 (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson. PENALTY on DAL-57-M.Lawrence, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.6 percentage points across this play.
Q113:29
(13:29) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 29 for 9 yards (53-D.Winters).
Play 124
(13:29) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 29 for 9 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q112:52 (12:52) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to DAL 27 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia; 99-L.Overton). Play 151 (12:52) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to DAL 27 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia; 99-L.Overton).
Q112:13 (12:13) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 9-B.Jordan ran ob at DAL 14 for 13 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 173 (12:13) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 9-B.Jordan ran ob at DAL 14 for 13 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q111:34 (11:34) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 7 for 7 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 203 (11:34) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 7 for 7 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q110:50 (10:50) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 7 for no gain (97-K.Clark; 92-Q.Williams). Play 228 (10:50) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 7 for no gain (97-K.Clark; 92-Q.Williams).
Q110:06 (10:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 250 (10:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q110:01 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 276 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q110:01 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35. Play 291 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35.
Q110:01 (10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 41 for 6 yards (50-K.Murray; 5-J.Pitre). Play 315 (10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 41 for 6 yards (50-K.Murray; 5-J.Pitre).
Q109:20 (9:20) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 43 for 2 yards (51-W.Anderson). Play 337 (9:20) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 43 for 2 yards (51-W.Anderson).
Q108:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 49 for 8 yards (2-C.Bullock). Play 359 (8:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 49 for 8 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q108:08 (8:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to HOU 45 for 4 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 384 (8:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to HOU 45 for 4 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q107:29 (7:29) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Mingo. Play 406 (7:29) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Mingo.
Q107:23 (7:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy to HOU 26 for 19 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 429 (7:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy to HOU 26 for 19 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q106:40 (6:40) 33-J.Williams right guard to HOU 21 for 5 yards (50-K.Murray; 90-J.Clowney). Play 454 (6:40) 33-J.Williams right guard to HOU 21 for 5 yards (50-K.Murray; 90-J.Clowney).
Q106:04 (6:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at HOU 21 for 0 yards (sack split by 90-J.Clowney and 95-J.Crumedy). Play 476 (6:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at HOU 21 for 0 yards (sack split by 90-J.Clowney and 95-J.Crumedy).
Q105:21 (5:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens. Play 496 (5:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens.
Q105:13 (5:13) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 519 (5:13) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q105:10 17-B.Aubrey kicks 64 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 1. 13-J.Noel to HOU 18 for 17 yards (13-C.Downs; 45-J.Barron). PENALTY on HOU-59-A.Fisher, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15. Play 539 17-B.Aubrey kicks 64 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 1. 13-J.Noel to HOU 18 for 17 yards (13-C.Downs; 45-J.Barron). PENALTY on HOU-59-A.Fisher, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.
Q105:06 (5:06) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 17 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs; 24-M.Hooker). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 580 (5:06) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 17 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs; 24-M.Hooker). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q104:21 (4:21) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at DAL 31 for 52 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 604 (4:21) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at DAL 31 for 52 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q103:39 (3:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 28 for 3 yards (27-R.Steward). PENALTY on HOU-4-W.Marks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 31 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-63-E.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. Play 636 (3:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 28 for 3 yards (27-R.Steward). PENALTY on HOU-4-W.Marks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 31 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-63-E.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q103:16 (3:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 4-W.Marks. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined. Play 674 (3:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 4-W.Marks. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q103:10 (3:10) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left guard to DAL 38 for 3 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku; 97-K.Clark). Play 708 (3:10) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left guard to DAL 38 for 3 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku; 97-K.Clark).
Q102:32 (2:32) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to DAL 33 for 5 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 730 (2:32) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to DAL 33 for 5 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q101:53 (1:53) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 755 (1:53) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q101:49 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 57 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 8. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for 24 yards (8-C.Stover). Play 775 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 57 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 8. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for 24 yards (8-C.Stover).
Q101:43 (1:43) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 38 for 6 yards (55-D.Hunter). PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play. Play 805 (1:43) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 38 for 6 yards (55-D.Hunter). PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play.
Q101:21 (1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams pushed ob at DAL 46 for 9 yards (35-J.Hansen). Play 838 (1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams pushed ob at DAL 46 for 9 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q100:47 (:47) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 86-L.Schoonmaker (50-K.Murray) [72-T.Togiai]. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 46 - No Play. Play 868 (:47) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 86-L.Schoonmaker (50-K.Murray) [72-T.Togiai]. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 46 - No Play.
Q100:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 47 for 2 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 902 (:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 47 for 2 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q100:03 (:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to HOU 45 for 2 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 927 (:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to HOU 45 for 2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 952 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 37 for 8 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 972 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 37 for 8 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q214:36 (14:36) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to HOU 35 for 2 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 997 (14:36) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to HOU 35 for 2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q214:01 (14:01) 33-J.Williams up the middle to HOU 33 for 2 yards (51-W.Anderson). Play 1022 (14:01) 33-J.Williams up the middle to HOU 33 for 2 yards (51-W.Anderson).
Q213:19 (13:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to HOU 32 for 1 yard (5-J.Pitre) [98-S.Rankins]. Play 1044 (13:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to HOU 32 for 1 yard (5-J.Pitre) [98-S.Rankins].
Q212:34 (12:34) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 1069 (12:34) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q212:30 17-B.Aubrey kicks 58 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 7. 11-T.Smith to HOU 24 for 17 yards (11-A.Clark; 89-B.Spann-Ford). Play 1089 17-B.Aubrey kicks 58 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 7. 11-T.Smith to HOU 24 for 17 yards (11-A.Clark; 89-B.Spann-Ford).
Q212:24 (12:24) PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 24 - No Play. Play 1119 (12:24) PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 24 - No Play.
Q212:24 (12:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson to HOU 29 for 10 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 1143 (12:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson to HOU 29 for 10 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q211:46 (11:46) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 30 for 1 yard (97-K.Clark). Play 1168 (11:46) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 30 for 1 yard (97-K.Clark).
Q211:09 (11:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 29 for -1 yards (7-R.Gary). Play 1190 (11:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 29 for -1 yards (7-R.Gary).
Q210:30 (10:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to DAL 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 31 for 16 yards (56-J.Hill). Play 1210 (10:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to DAL 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 31 for 16 yards (56-J.Hill).
Q210:18 (10:18) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 33 for 2 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 72-T.Togiai). Play 1236 (10:18) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 33 for 2 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 72-T.Togiai).
Q209:44 (9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right [90-J.Clowney]. PENALTY on DAL-4-D.Prescott, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at DAL 33. Play 1265 (9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right [90-J.Clowney]. PENALTY on DAL-4-D.Prescott, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at DAL 33.
Q209:34 (9:34) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 27 for 8 yards (96-L.Hall; 35-J.Hansen). PENALTY on HOU-96-L.Hall, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 27. Play 1299 (9:34) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 27 for 8 yards (96-L.Hall; 35-J.Hansen). PENALTY on HOU-96-L.Hall, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 27.
Q209:15 (9:15) 88-C.Lamb left end to DAL 26 for -6 yards (51-W.Anderson). Play 1332 (9:15) 88-C.Lamb left end to DAL 26 for -6 yards (51-W.Anderson).
Q208:35 Timeout #1 by DAL at 08:35. Play 1366 Timeout #1 by DAL at 08:35.
Q208:34 (8:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (24-D.Stingley). Play 1354 (8:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (24-D.Stingley).
Q208:29 (8:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Ferguson (3-K.Lassiter). Play 1384 (8:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Ferguson (3-K.Lassiter).
Q208:23 (8:23) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 17 for no gain (11-A.Clark). Play 1407 (8:23) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 17 for no gain (11-A.Clark).
Q208:13 (8:13) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 19-X.Hutchinson (24-M.Hooker). Play 1433 (8:13) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 19-X.Hutchinson (24-M.Hooker).
Q208:06 (8:06) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks left end to HOU 20 for 3 yards (99-L.Overton; 53-D.Winters). Play 1463 (8:06) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks left end to HOU 20 for 3 yards (99-L.Overton; 53-D.Winters).
Q207:27 (7:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson. Play 1487 (7:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson.
Q207:22 (7:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to DAL 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 11 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 56-J.Hill). Play 1510 (7:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to DAL 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 11 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 56-J.Hill).
Q207:10 (7:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 47 for 11 yards (35-J.Hansen). Play 1541 (7:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 47 for 11 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q206:33 (6:33) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 32-T.Goodson (72-T.Togiai). Play 1573 (6:33) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 32-T.Goodson (72-T.Togiai).
Q206:25 (6:25) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson up the middle to HOU 43 for 10 yards (2-C.Bullock). Play 1596 (6:25) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson up the middle to HOU 43 for 10 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q205:52 (5:52) 32-T.Goodson left end to HOU 44 for -1 yards (35-J.Hansen). Play 1618 (5:52) 32-T.Goodson left end to HOU 44 for -1 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q205:10 (5:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Mingo (3-K.Lassiter). Play 1640 (5:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Mingo (3-K.Lassiter).
Q205:06 (5:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb [96-L.Hall]. Play 1663 (5:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb [96-L.Hall].
Q205:02 (5:02) 17-B.Aubrey 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (51-W.Anderson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 1686 (5:02) 17-B.Aubrey 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (51-W.Anderson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q204:58 (4:58) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to DAL 45 for 3 yards (92-Q.Williams; 97-K.Clark). Play 1707 (4:58) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to DAL 45 for 3 yards (92-Q.Williams; 97-K.Clark).
Q204:21 (4:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to DAL 27 for 18 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 1729 (4:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to DAL 27 for 18 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q203:39 (3:39) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to DAL 21 for 6 yards (50-S.James). Play 1754 (3:39) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to DAL 21 for 6 yards (50-S.James).
Q202:58 (2:58) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to DAL 20 for 1 yard (24-M.Hooker; 93-E.Garcia). Play 1776 (2:58) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to DAL 20 for 1 yard (24-M.Hooker; 93-E.Garcia).
Q202:15 (2:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right [7-R.Gary]. Play 1798 (2:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right [7-R.Gary].
Q202:08 (2:08) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 1821 (2:08) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q202:05 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 61 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 26 for 22 yards (94-D.Robinson). Play 1841 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 61 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 26 for 22 yards (94-D.Robinson).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at DAL 35 for 9 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 1864 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at DAL 35 for 9 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q201:55 (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 48 for 13 yards (2-C.Bullock; 6-R.Blankenship). Play 1901 (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 48 for 13 yards (2-C.Bullock; 6-R.Blankenship).
Q201:35 (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 41 for 11 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 1923 (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 41 for 11 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q201:29 Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:29. Play 1960 Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:29.
Q201:29 (1:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to HOU 36 for 5 yards (50-K.Murray). Play 1948 (1:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to HOU 36 for 5 yards (50-K.Murray).
Q201:24 Timeout #2 by HOU at 01:24. Play 1992 Timeout #2 by HOU at 01:24.
Q201:24 (1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at HOU 38 for -2 yards (35-J.Hansen). Play 1980 (1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at HOU 38 for -2 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q201:17 Timeout #3 by HOU at 01:17. Play 2019 Timeout #3 by HOU at 01:17.
Q201:17 (1:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at HOU 47 for -9 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 55-D.Hunter). Play 2007 (1:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at HOU 47 for -9 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 55-D.Hunter).
Q200:30 Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:30. Play 2046 Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:30.
Q200:30 (:30) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 2034 (:30) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q200:26 (:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 14-K.Boutte ran ob at DAL 39 for 6 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 2062 (:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 14-K.Boutte ran ob at DAL 39 for 6 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q200:22 (:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to DAL 36 for 3 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 2092 (:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to DAL 36 for 3 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q200:03 (:03) 7-C.Stroud spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 2114 (:03) 7-C.Stroud spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q200:02 (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 2137 (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2157 Q315:00 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 3. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at HOU 49 for 48 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 2175 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 3. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at HOU 49 for 48 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q314:52 (14:52) 33-J.Williams up the middle to HOU 42 for 7 yards (55-D.Hunter; 72-T.Togiai). Play 2203 (14:52) 33-J.Williams up the middle to HOU 42 for 7 yards (55-D.Hunter; 72-T.Togiai).
Q314:17 (14:17) 33-J.Williams left end to HOU 38 for 4 yards (72-T.Togiai). Play 2225 (14:17) 33-J.Williams left end to HOU 38 for 4 yards (72-T.Togiai).
Q313:40 (13:40) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 8 for 30 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 2-C.Bullock). Play 2247 (13:40) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 8 for 30 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 2-C.Bullock).
Q313:00 (13:00) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2272 (13:00) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q312:55 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 2295 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q312:55 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 9. 13-J.Noel to DAL 38 for 53 yards (23-A.Speed). Play 2310 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 9. 13-J.Noel to DAL 38 for 53 yards (23-A.Speed).
Q312:45 (12:45) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 36 for 2 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 2345 (12:45) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 36 for 2 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q312:07 (12:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at DAL 26 for 10 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 2369 (12:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at DAL 26 for 10 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q311:35 (11:35) 13-J.Noel left tackle to DAL 22 for 4 yards (55-J.Barham). Play 2399 (11:35) 13-J.Noel left tackle to DAL 22 for 4 yards (55-J.Barham).
Q310:57 (10:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-27-R.Steward, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs. Play 2421 (10:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-27-R.Steward, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Q310:50 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 2462 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q310:50 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 61 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 32 yards (30-W.Woodaz). Play 2477 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 61 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 32 yards (30-W.Woodaz).
Q310:43 (10:43) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens to HOU 11 for 53 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 2507 (10:43) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens to HOU 11 for 53 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q309:57 (9:57) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to HOU 5 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 50-K.Murray). Play 2532 (9:57) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to HOU 5 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 50-K.Murray).
Q309:20 (9:20) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left end to HOU 8 for -3 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 2554 (9:20) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left end to HOU 8 for -3 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q308:37 (8:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 3-G.Pickens (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 8 - No Play. Play 2576 (8:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 3-G.Pickens (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 8 - No Play.
Q308:32 (8:32) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 4 for -3 yards (90-J.Clowney). Play 2610 (8:32) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 4 for -3 yards (90-J.Clowney).
Q307:48 (7:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (24-D.Stingley). Play 2632 (7:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (24-D.Stingley).
Q307:45 (7:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left tackle to HOU 3 for 1 yard (35-J.Hansen; 51-W.Anderson). Play 2655 (7:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left tackle to HOU 3 for 1 yard (35-J.Hansen; 51-W.Anderson).
Q306:59 (6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 19-R.Flournoy (5-J.Pitre) [51-W.Anderson]. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at HOU 3 - No Play. Play 2677 (6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 19-R.Flournoy (5-J.Pitre) [51-W.Anderson]. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at HOU 3 - No Play.
Q306:54 (6:54) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-95-J.Crumedy was injured during the play. Play 2711 (6:54) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-95-J.Crumedy was injured during the play.
Q306:49 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 2737 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q306:49 17-B.Aubrey kicks 62 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 3. 11-T.Smith to HOU 20 for 17 yards (30-H.Luepke; 89-B.Spann-Ford). Play 2759 17-B.Aubrey kicks 62 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 3. 11-T.Smith to HOU 20 for 17 yards (30-H.Luepke; 89-B.Spann-Ford).
Q306:44 (6:44) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 8-C.Stover to HOU 40 for 20 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 2782 (6:44) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 8-C.Stover to HOU 40 for 20 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q306:01 (6:01) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 42 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 2807 (6:01) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 42 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q305:22 (5:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins [97-K.Clark]. Play 2829 (5:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins [97-K.Clark].
Q305:17 (5:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right [53-D.Winters]. Play 2852 (5:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right [53-D.Winters].
Q305:12 (5:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to DAL 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 19 for 6 yards (8-C.Stover). Play 2875 (5:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to DAL 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 19 for 6 yards (8-C.Stover).
Q305:04 (5:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 27 for 8 yards (6-R.Blankenship). ** Injury Update: HOU-95-J.Crumedy has returned to the game. Play 2906 (5:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 27 for 8 yards (6-R.Blankenship). ** Injury Update: HOU-95-J.Crumedy has returned to the game.
Q304:26 (4:26) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson up the middle to DAL 30 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai; 35-J.Hansen). Play 2938 (4:26) (Shotgun) 32-T.Goodson up the middle to DAL 30 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai; 35-J.Hansen).
Q303:52 (3:52) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 32 for 2 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 2960 (3:52) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 32 for 2 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q303:14 (3:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 39 for 7 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 2985 (3:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 39 for 7 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q302:29 (2:29) 67-D.Shelton reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 45 for 16 yards (2-C.Bullock). Play 3013 (2:29) 67-D.Shelton reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 45 for 16 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q301:48 (1:48) 33-J.Williams right guard to HOU 44 for 1 yard (35-J.Hansen). Play 3040 (1:48) 33-J.Williams right guard to HOU 44 for 1 yard (35-J.Hansen).
Q301:12 (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to HOU 42 for 2 yards (35-J.Hansen). Play 3062 (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to HOU 42 for 2 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q300:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to HOU 33 for 9 yards (2-C.Bullock; 35-J.Hansen). Play 3087 (:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to HOU 33 for 9 yards (2-C.Bullock; 35-J.Hansen).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3112 Q415:00 (15:00) 32-T.Goodson left tackle to HOU 28 for 5 yards (35-J.Hansen; 55-D.Hunter). PENALTY on DAL-66-T.Bass, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 33 - No Play. Play 3137 (15:00) 32-T.Goodson left tackle to HOU 28 for 5 yards (35-J.Hansen; 55-D.Hunter). PENALTY on DAL-66-T.Bass, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 33 - No Play.
Q414:42 (14:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-60-T.Guyton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play. Play 3170 (14:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-60-T.Guyton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play.
Q414:42 (14:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to HOU 41 for 7 yards (98-S.Rankins). Play 3194 (14:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to HOU 41 for 7 yards (98-S.Rankins).
Q414:00 (14:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 20 for 21 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). Play 3219 (14:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 20 for 21 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen).
Q413:20 (13:20) 33-J.Williams up the middle to HOU 20 for no gain (90-J.Clowney). Play 3244 (13:20) 33-J.Williams up the middle to HOU 20 for no gain (90-J.Clowney).
Q412:42 (12:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 3 for 17 yards (2-C.Bullock; 5-J.Pitre). Play 3266 (12:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 3 for 17 yards (2-C.Bullock; 5-J.Pitre).
Q411:59 (11:59) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 2 for 1 yard (96-L.Hall; 72-T.Togiai). Play 3291 (11:59) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 2 for 1 yard (96-L.Hall; 72-T.Togiai).
Q411:20 (11:20) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3313 (11:20) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q411:17 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on HOU-72-T.Togiai, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced between downs. Play 3336 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on HOU-72-T.Togiai, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
Q411:17 17-B.Aubrey kicks 57 yards from DAL 40 to HOU 3. 11-T.Smith to HOU 30 for 27 yards (50-S.James). ** Injury Update: DAL-11-A.Clark has returned to the game. PENALTY on HOU-8-C.Stover, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24. Play 3362 17-B.Aubrey kicks 57 yards from DAL 40 to HOU 3. 11-T.Smith to HOU 30 for 27 yards (50-S.James). ** Injury Update: DAL-11-A.Clark has returned to the game. PENALTY on HOU-8-C.Stover, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.
Q411:10 (11:10) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 14-K.Boutte ran ob at HOU 35 for 21 yards. Dallas challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 3408 (11:10) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 14-K.Boutte ran ob at HOU 35 for 21 yards. Dallas challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q410:53 (10:53) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 40 for 5 yards (57-M.Lawrence). Play 3490 (10:53) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 40 for 5 yards (57-M.Lawrence).
Q410:10 (10:10) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to HOU 42 for 2 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku; 53-D.Winters). Play 3524 (10:10) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to HOU 42 for 2 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku; 53-D.Winters).
Q409:31 (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 31 for -11 yards (92-Q.Williams). Play 3548 (9:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 31 for -11 yards (92-Q.Williams).
Q408:51 (8:51) 38-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to DAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 31 for 14 yards (87-F.Moreau). Play 3568 (8:51) 38-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to DAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 31 for 14 yards (87-F.Moreau).
Q408:40 (8:40) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 33 for 2 yards (98-S.Rankins; 6-R.Blankenship). Play 3599 (8:40) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 33 for 2 yards (98-S.Rankins; 6-R.Blankenship).
Q408:00 (8:00) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Spann-Ford. Play 3628 (8:00) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Spann-Ford.
Q407:55 (7:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 30-H.Luepke to DAL 35 for 2 yards (5-J.Pitre) [51-W.Anderson]. Play 3651 (7:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 30-H.Luepke to DAL 35 for 2 yards (5-J.Pitre) [51-W.Anderson].
Q407:08 (7:08) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to HOU 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 13 for 8 yards (30-H.Luepke; 89-B.Spann-Ford). Play 3676 (7:08) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to HOU 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 13 for 8 yards (30-H.Luepke; 89-B.Spann-Ford).
Q406:55 (6:55) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. PENALTY on HOU-66-K.Rutledge, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 13 - No Play. Play 3702 (6:55) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. PENALTY on HOU-66-K.Rutledge, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 13 - No Play.
Q406:55 (6:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson to HOU 34 for 26 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 3728 (6:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson to HOU 34 for 26 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q406:13 (6:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to HOU 43 for 9 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 3753 (6:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to HOU 43 for 9 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q405:36 (5:36) 4-W.Marks right tackle to HOU 42 for -1 yards (92-Q.Williams). Play 3778 (5:36) 4-W.Marks right tackle to HOU 42 for -1 yards (92-Q.Williams).
Q404:53 (4:53) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to DAL 45 for 13 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 3800 (4:53) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to DAL 45 for 13 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q404:11 (4:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 13-J.Noel to DAL 23 for 22 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 3825 (4:11) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 13-J.Noel to DAL 23 for 22 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q403:30 (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on HOU-69-E.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23 - No Play. Play 3850 (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on HOU-69-E.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23 - No Play.
Q403:24 (3:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to DAL 32 for 1 yard (13-C.Downs). Play 3883 (3:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to DAL 32 for 1 yard (13-C.Downs).
Q402:40 (2:40) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 14-K.Boutte. Play 3908 (2:40) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 14-K.Boutte.
Q402:34 (2:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-6-D.Ezeiruaku, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play. Play 3933 (2:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-6-D.Ezeiruaku, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play.
Q402:34 (2:34) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 25 for 2 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at DAL 6 for 19 yards (53-D.Winters; 23-A.Speed). Play 3957 (2:34) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 25 for 2 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at DAL 6 for 19 yards (53-D.Winters; 23-A.Speed).
Q402:26 (2:26) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3982 (2:26) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q402:23 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 4016 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q402:23 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 5. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 26 for 21 yards (8-C.Stover). Play 4036 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to DAL 5. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 26 for 21 yards (8-C.Stover).
Q402:15 (2:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb (5-J.Pitre). Play 4059 (2:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb (5-J.Pitre).
Q402:10 (2:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 35 for 9 yards (27-K.Ramsey). Play 4082 (2:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 35 for 9 yards (27-K.Ramsey).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 32 for -3 yards (27-K.Ramsey). Play 4107 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 32 for -3 yards (27-K.Ramsey).
Q401:34 (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock). Play 4139 (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q401:16 (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left [51-W.Anderson]. Play 4164 (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left [51-W.Anderson].
Q401:12 (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 46 for 15 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 4187 (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 46 for 15 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q401:02 Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:02. Play 4224 Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:02.
Q401:02 (1:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to HOU 42 for 4 yards (35-J.Hansen) [51-W.Anderson]. Play 4212 (1:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to HOU 42 for 4 yards (35-J.Hansen) [51-W.Anderson].
Q400:58 Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:58. Play 4256 Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:58.
Q400:58 (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 34 for 8 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 4244 (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 34 for 8 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q400:52 Timeout #3 by HOU at 00:52. Play 4288 Timeout #3 by HOU at 00:52.
Q400:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at HOU 12 for 22 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 4276 (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at HOU 12 for 22 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q400:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy [51-W.Anderson]. Play 4313 (:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy [51-W.Anderson].
Q400:43 (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4336 (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q400:40 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: HOU-95-J.Crumedy has returned to the game. Play 4362 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: HOU-95-J.Crumedy has returned to the game.
Q400:40 17-B.Aubrey kicks 55 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 10. 13-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 28 for 18 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 4377 17-B.Aubrey kicks 55 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 10. 13-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 28 for 18 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q400:37 (:37) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at HOU 36 for 8 yards (23-A.Speed). Play 4408 (:37) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at HOU 36 for 8 yards (23-A.Speed).
Q400:31 (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel to HOU 47 for 11 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 4438 (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel to HOU 47 for 11 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q400:17 (:17) (No Huddle) 7-C.Stroud spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4463 (:17) (No Huddle) 7-C.Stroud spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:16 Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:16. Play 4498 Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:16.
Q400:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson. PENALTY on DAL-57-M.Lawrence, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. Play 4486 (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson. PENALTY on DAL-57-M.Lawrence, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play.
Q400:09 (:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right (24-M.Hooker). Play 4527 (:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right (24-M.Hooker).
3
Game seconds remaining 1314
Half seconds remaining 1314
Quarter seconds remaining 414
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU -6.73 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 1
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1314
Half seconds remaining 1314
Quarter seconds remaining 414
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 97
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 1314
Half seconds remaining 1314
Quarter seconds remaining 414
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:37 Penalty · DAL (8:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 3-G.Pickens (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 8 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU -9.86 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 1
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1412
Half seconds remaining 1412
Quarter seconds remaining 512
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 7
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1412
Half seconds remaining 1412
Quarter seconds remaining 512
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU -3.56 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 1
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1412
Half seconds remaining 1412
Quarter seconds remaining 512
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 7
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1412
Half seconds remaining 1412
Quarter seconds remaining 512
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q406:55 Penalty · HOU (6:55) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. PENALTY on HOU-66-K.Rutledge, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU -5.79 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 15
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 92
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 415
Half seconds remaining 415
Quarter seconds remaining 415
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 415
Half seconds remaining 415
Quarter seconds remaining 415
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU -0.81 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 15
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 92
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 415
Half seconds remaining 415
Quarter seconds remaining 415
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 415
Half seconds remaining 415
Quarter seconds remaining 415
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q402:34 Penalty · HOU (2:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-6-D.Ezeiruaku, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU 4.4 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 14
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 154
Half seconds remaining 154
Quarter seconds remaining 154
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 19
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 154
Half seconds remaining 154
Quarter seconds remaining 154
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU 0.38 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 14
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 154
Half seconds remaining 154
Quarter seconds remaining 154
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 19
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 154
Half seconds remaining 154
Quarter seconds remaining 154
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q414:42 Penalty · DAL (14:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-60-T.Guyton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU 2.35 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 25
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 882
Half seconds remaining 882
Quarter seconds remaining 882
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 20
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 882
Half seconds remaining 882
Quarter seconds remaining 882
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU 0.2 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 25
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 882
Half seconds remaining 882
Quarter seconds remaining 882
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 20
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 882
Half seconds remaining 882
Quarter seconds remaining 882
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q200:30 Kick · DAL (:30) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 2.29 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.4197674640729282
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.4916666666666666
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1830
Half seconds remaining 30
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 0
Quarter seconds remaining 30
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2667832019979155 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24897/0.24388/0.26678 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DAL -0.45 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q212:24 Penalty · HOU (12:24) PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU -1.86 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 15
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 81
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2544
Half seconds remaining 744
Quarter seconds remaining 744
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 76
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2544
Half seconds remaining 744
Quarter seconds remaining 744
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU -0.58 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 15
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 81
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2544
Half seconds remaining 744
Quarter seconds remaining 744
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 76
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2544
Half seconds remaining 744
Quarter seconds remaining 744
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q100:47 Penalty · DAL (:47) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 86-L.Schoonmaker (50-K.Murray) [72-T.Togiai]. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU -1.48 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2739
Half seconds remaining 939
Quarter seconds remaining 39
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2739
Half seconds remaining 939
Quarter seconds remaining 39
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence HOU -0.8 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2739
Half seconds remaining 939
Quarter seconds remaining 39
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2739
Half seconds remaining 939
Quarter seconds remaining 39
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q210:30 Fourth down · HOU (10:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to DAL 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 31 for 16 yards (56-J.Hill). + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0.2 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.8175953791020378
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.325
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2430
Half seconds remaining 630
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 630
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6215445200159877 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62154/ NA/0.61950 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:53 Kick · HOU (1:53) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 1.251281022095743
Yardline 100 33
Elapsed share 0.2186111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2813
Half seconds remaining 1013
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 113
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.6813342421659708 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65594/0.68133/0.65612 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation HOU 1.73 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q208:23 Fourth down · DAL (8:23) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 17 for no gain (11-A.Clark). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.7099939554434102
Yardline 100 74
Elapsed share 0.3602777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2303
Half seconds remaining 503
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 503
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3000014980194894 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26736/ NA/0.30000 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:22 Fourth down · HOU (7:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to DAL 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 11 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 56-J.Hill). + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.6634667097154421
Yardline 100 80
Elapsed share 0.3772222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2242
Half seconds remaining 442
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6141194011505555 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.61215/ NA/0.61412 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 28 recorded events Q200:02 Kick · HOU (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.4069090881579882
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.4994444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1802
Half seconds remaining 2
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 0
Quarter seconds remaining 2
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8052411045584567 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74714/0.80524/0.74474 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation HOU 1.73 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q305:12 Fourth down · HOU (5:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to DAL 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 19 for 6 yards (8-C.Stover). + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.2112483032636359
Yardline 100 58
Elapsed share 0.6633333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q408:51 Fourth down · HOU (8:51) 38-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to DAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 31 for 14 yards (87-F.Moreau). + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.0991236011276608
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.8525
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q407:08 Fourth down · DAL (7:08) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to HOU 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 13 for 8 yards (30-H.Luepke; 89-B.Spann-Ford). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.08840452209055844
Yardline 100 65
Elapsed share 0.8811111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0 Q401:34 Fourth down · DAL (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.06099622713988499
Yardline 100 68
Elapsed share 0.9738888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q115:00 Penalty · HOU 17-B.Aubrey kicks 57 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 8. 13-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell; 30-H.Luepke). PENALTY on HOU-30-W.Woodaz, Face Mask, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 29. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:01 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.07 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q105:13 Kick · DAL (5:13) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0.03 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 1.562660889247537
Yardline 100 21
Elapsed share 0.1630555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q105:10 Penalty · HOU 17-B.Aubrey kicks 64 yards from DAL 35 to HOU 1. 13-J.Noel to HOU 18 for 17 yards (13-C.Downs; 45-J.Barron). PENALTY on HOU-59-A.Fisher, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:39 Penalty · HOU (3:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 28 for 3 yards (27-R.Steward). PENALTY on HOU-4-W.Marks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 31 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-63-E.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:16 Fourth down · HOU (3:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 4-W.Marks. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:43 Penalty · DAL (1:43) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 38 for 6 yards (55-D.Hunter). PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:34 Kick · DAL (12:34) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0.13 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.93837095517599
Yardline 100 32
Elapsed share 0.2905555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q209:44 Penalty · DAL (9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right [90-J.Clowney]. PENALTY on DAL-4-D.Prescott, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at DAL 33. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:34 Penalty · DAL (9:34) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 27 for 8 yards (96-L.Hall; 35-J.Hansen). PENALTY on HOU-96-L.Hall, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 27. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:02 Kick · DAL (5:02) 17-B.Aubrey 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (51-W.Anderson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0.86 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.5678873793137393
Yardline 100 44
Elapsed share 0.4161111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q202:08 Kick · HOU (2:08) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 2.4 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team DAL
Home team HOU
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.4680568626250195
Yardline 100 20
Elapsed share 0.4644444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q312:55 Kick · DAL 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Extra point points above expectation DAL 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q310:57 Penalty · HOU (10:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-27-R.Steward, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:50 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.07 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q306:49 Kick · DAL 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Extra point points above expectation DAL 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q415:00 Penalty · DAL (15:00) 32-T.Goodson left tackle to HOU 28 for 5 yards (35-J.Hansen; 55-D.Hunter). PENALTY on DAL-66-T.Bass, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 33 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:17 Penalty · DAL 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on HOU-72-T.Togiai, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:17 Penalty · HOU 17-B.Aubrey kicks 57 yards from DAL 40 to HOU 3. 11-T.Smith to HOU 30 for 27 yards (50-S.James). ** Injury Update: DAL-11-A.Clark has returned to the game. PENALTY on HOU-8-C.Stover, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:30 Penalty · HOU (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on HOU-69-E.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:23 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.07 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q400:40 Kick · DAL 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: HOU-95-J.Crumedy has returned to the game. + Extra point points above expectation DAL 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q400:16 Penalty · HOU (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson. PENALTY on DAL-57-M.Lawrence, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0c2e4494acf5278125e1e981ab552b76f31463ae3fc1ef349da61ee8df65ee2dnflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 7ba5931f080ebfb00614e23c39b9127f08099ab9726258dc517a9aefa2d7cb57ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 152ea0757cde6fcb5810b05f1528496f2b75d9f8d668c292be6bcce46d8dce16Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: fdeae5573c4eeb6b737790d096a85481006794695730fd855b4d1b6ebc3e4ee6
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 13 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 8, 2026, 1:15 AM UTC Version 12 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 7, 2026, 7:22 PM UTC Version 11 ↗ Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 7:24 PM UTC Version 10 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 1:42 AM UTC Version 7 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 10:28 PM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 8:13 PM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Oct 5, 2026, 12:56 PM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 7:07 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 4, 2026, 10:59 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
3
Game seconds remaining 1212
Half seconds remaining 1212
Quarter seconds remaining 312
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6763349190695208 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65012/ NA/0.67633 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-4
Game seconds remaining 531
Half seconds remaining 531
Quarter seconds remaining 531
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.269294625388518 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24409/ NA/0.26929 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 428
Half seconds remaining 428
Quarter seconds remaining 428
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6412254335590231 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62205/ NA/0.64123 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-3
Quarter seconds remaining 94
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1939754789752662 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19398/ NA/0.09256 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 3013
Half seconds remaining 1213
Quarter seconds remaining 313
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3097391336950695 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30974/0.30947/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DAL -0.45 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 2554
Half seconds remaining 754
Quarter seconds remaining 754
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2916373236187594 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29164/0.29036/0.25347 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DAL -0.45 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-4
Game seconds remaining 2102
Half seconds remaining 302
Quarter seconds remaining 302
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.320578848914459 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32058/0.31194/0.31135 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
4
Game seconds remaining 1928
Half seconds remaining 128
Quarter seconds remaining 128
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7141077493711318 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71411/0.69012/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation HOU 1.73 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled