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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: SF by 9.3; actual result: SF by 10.
The 0.7-point difference was matched or exceeded in 760 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 SF minus DEN penalty-count difference: -6 versus 0.1 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 183 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 70.77%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: SF by 3.0; actual result: SF by 10. The difference was 7 points.
4,205 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin San Francisco 49ers by 3
Final margin San Francisco 49ers by 10
Difference 7 points
San Francisco 49ers covered the spread.
4,205 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (57.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score SF by 9.3
Actual final margin SF by 10
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
San Francisco 49ers chance to win during the game 149 preplay estimates across 176 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 27 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 1 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 01:56 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4176 (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to SF 26 for 25 yards (6-M.Mustapha) [56-K.White]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims [56-K.White].
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.0 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 176 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 176 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 18-E.Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35. Play 39 18-E.Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35.
Q115:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 37 for 2 yards (0-R.Green). Play 56 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 37 for 2 yards (0-R.Green).
Q114:28 (14:28) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Play 81 (14:28) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
Q114:21 Timeout #1 by SF at 14:21. Play 116 Timeout #1 by SF at 14:21.
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 76 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q414:12 Kick · DEN (14:12) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 4.3 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.1416039723686311
Yardline 100 22 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 7, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 26bc95c58183063e5e113cfc1ba7285989a2b054a299abd242ea547dfcf8e5a5This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
760 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 183 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Ronald Torbert Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.1 accepted penalties for 99.3 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.3 / 50.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.8 / 48.8 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Ronald Torbert; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape San Francisco 49ers · Opponent penalties Opponent DEN was charged 7 penalties for 44 yards.
Denver Broncos · Opponent penalties Opponent SF was charged 1 penalties for 5 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 149 model estimates across 176 recorded game entries.
27 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (176 entries) 0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence 1.75 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Ruling expected points consequence 0.87 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence 0.79 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Ruling expected points consequence 1.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence 0.3 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Ruling expected points consequence 0.4 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37437/ NA/0.38336 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56097/ NA/0.57620 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41970/0.44160/0.40935 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53763/0.51269/0.47330 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.50243/ NA/0.53234 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 1.14 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44718/ NA/0.43578 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51425/0.48249/0.53012 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0.5 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54927/0.54425/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37246/ NA/0.40149 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49751/ NA/0.52911 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 3.1 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46247/ NA/0.43142 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47433/ NA/0.48178 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65445/0.59974/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 4.3 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24440/0.20141/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01878/0.00442/0.00604 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 1.56 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01564/0.00000/0.00024 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
SF Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.65 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 91st percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
DEN Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.65 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 91st percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
SF Field goal points above expectation 0.02 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DEN Field goal points above expectation -0.69 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 22nd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
SF Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 77th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
DEN Extra point points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
SF Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Charted drops 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF QB attributed sacks Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Charting tag missing
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN QB attributed sacks Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Charting tag missing
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF Catchable targets 20 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Catchable targets 28 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF Contested targets 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Contested targets 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
SF Receiver created receptions 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Receiver created receptions 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
DEN Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.6 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
70 of 70 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 70 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.3 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
70 of 70 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 70 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.64 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 29 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.35 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 29 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SF Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.26 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
63 of 63 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 63 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SF Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.05 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
63 of 63 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 63 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SF Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.5 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SF Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.59 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q114:21 (14:21) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. Play 104 (14:21) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton.
Q114:17 (14:17) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to SF 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 134 (14:17) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to SF 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q114:09 (14:09) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 9 for 3 yards (93-D.Jones). Play 153 (14:09) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 9 for 3 yards (93-D.Jones).
Q113:33 (13:33) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 21 for 12 yards (22-B.Jones; 52-J.Elliss). Play 175 (13:33) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 21 for 12 yards (22-B.Jones; 52-J.Elliss).
Q112:54 (12:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel to SF 28 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton; 40-J.Strnad). Play 197 (12:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel to SF 28 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton; 40-J.Strnad).
Q112:17 (12:17) 4-J.Cowing right end to SF 30 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 222 (12:17) 4-J.Cowing right end to SF 30 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q111:39 (11:39) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to SF 32 for 2 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 264 (11:39) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to SF 32 for 2 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q111:04 (11:04) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black right guard to SF 33 for 1 yard (96-E.Uwazurike). Play 286 (11:04) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black right guard to SF 33 for 1 yard (96-E.Uwazurike).
Q110:23 (10:23) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to SF 36 for 3 yards (2-P.Surtain). Play 308 (10:23) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to SF 36 for 3 yards (2-P.Surtain).
Q109:43 (9:43) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Cowing. Play 344 (9:43) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Cowing.
Q109:38 (9:38) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. Play 367 (9:38) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q109:31 (9:31) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to DEN 16 for 5 yards (93-G.Halton; 36-M.Sigle). PENALTY on DEN-19-M.Mims, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 11 - No Play. Play 388 (9:31) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to DEN 16 for 5 yards (93-G.Halton; 36-M.Sigle). PENALTY on DEN-19-M.Mims, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 11 - No Play.
Q109:12 (9:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 12 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Play 441 (9:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 12 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
Q108:27 (8:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 18 for 6 yards (94-R.Height). Play 466 (8:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 18 for 6 yards (94-R.Height).
Q107:46 (7:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie ran ob at DEN 43 for 25 yards (36-M.Sigle). Play 491 (7:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie ran ob at DEN 43 for 25 yards (36-M.Sigle).
Q107:15 (7:15) 12-R.Harvey left guard to DEN 49 for 6 yards (27-J.Brown). Play 521 (7:15) 12-R.Harvey left guard to DEN 49 for 6 yards (27-J.Brown).
Q106:35 (6:35) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to SF 49 for 2 yards (27-J.Brown). Play 543 (6:35) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to SF 49 for 2 yards (27-J.Brown).
Q105:52 (5:52) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie right guard to SF 45 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner; 20-U.Stout). Play 568 (5:52) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie right guard to SF 45 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner; 20-U.Stout).
Q105:11 (5:11) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (50-N.Jones; 54-F.Warner). Play 590 (5:11) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (50-N.Jones; 54-F.Warner).
Q104:30 (4:30) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle. Play 612 (4:30) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle.
Q104:23 (4:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to SF 33 for 10 yards (36-M.Sigle; 92-O.Odighizuwa). Play 635 (4:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to SF 33 for 10 yards (36-M.Sigle; 92-O.Odighizuwa).
Q103:41 (3:41) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 55-S.Valdez). PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 33 - No Play. Play 660 (3:41) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 55-S.Valdez). PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 33 - No Play.
Q103:18 (3:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 1-E.Engram (54-F.Warner). Play 693 (3:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 1-E.Engram (54-F.Warner).
Q103:11 (3:11) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 40 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 20-U.Stout). Play 728 (3:11) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 40 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 20-U.Stout).
Q102:27 (2:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to SF 34 for 6 yards (20-U.Stout). Play 753 (2:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to SF 34 for 6 yards (20-U.Stout).
Q101:48 (1:48) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 778 (1:48) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q101:43 3-W.Lutz kicks 65 yards from DEN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35. Play 802 3-W.Lutz kicks 65 yards from DEN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35.
Q101:43 (1:43) 19-D.Samuel up the middle pushed ob at DEN 43 for 22 yards (2-P.Surtain). Play 826 (1:43) 19-D.Samuel up the middle pushed ob at DEN 43 for 22 yards (2-P.Surtain).
Q101:13 (1:13) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to DEN 41 for 2 yards (99-Z.Allen; 49-A.Singleton). Play 853 (1:13) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to DEN 41 for 2 yards (99-Z.Allen; 49-A.Singleton).
Q100:40 (:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 37 for 4 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 875 (:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 37 for 4 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 900 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 34 for 3 yards (97-M.Roach). Play 920 (15:00) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 34 for 3 yards (97-M.Roach).
Q214:30 (14:30) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to DEN 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton). Play 942 (14:30) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to DEN 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).
Q214:21 (14:21) 12-R.Harvey left tackle to DEN 36 for 2 yards (43-M.Judon). Play 964 (14:21) 12-R.Harvey left tackle to DEN 36 for 2 yards (43-M.Judon).
Q213:45 (13:45) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 42 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 36-M.Sigle). Play 993 (13:45) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 42 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 36-M.Sigle).
Q213:02 (13:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play. Play 1018 (13:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play.
Q212:48 (12:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 1-E.Engram. Play 1042 (12:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 1-E.Engram.
Q212:43 (12:43) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to SF 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 1065 (12:43) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to SF 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q212:36 (12:36) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 16 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 1084 (12:36) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 16 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q211:53 (11:53) 26-K.Black up the middle to SF 21 for 5 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 49-A.Singleton). Play 1116 (11:53) 26-K.Black up the middle to SF 21 for 5 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 49-A.Singleton).
Q211:18 (11:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to SF 21 for no gain (93-D.Jones). Play 1138 (11:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to SF 21 for no gain (93-D.Jones).
Q210:36 (10:36) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to DEN 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. Play 1160 (10:36) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to DEN 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q210:28 (10:28) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 30 for no gain (54-F.Warner). Play 1180 (10:28) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 30 for no gain (54-F.Warner).
Q209:50 (9:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 39 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha). Play 1209 (9:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 39 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
Q209:06 (9:06) PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 39 - No Play. Play 1234 (9:06) PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 39 - No Play.
Q208:43 (8:43) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left end to DEN 42 for 7 yards (59-O.Okoronkwo). Play 1258 (8:43) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left end to DEN 42 for 7 yards (59-O.Okoronkwo).
Q207:57 (7:57) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 46 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner; 57-D.Greenlaw). Play 1280 (7:57) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 46 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner; 57-D.Greenlaw).
Q207:18 (7:18) 27-J.Dobbins right end to 50 for 4 yards (93-G.Halton; 54-F.Warner). Play 1302 (7:18) 27-J.Dobbins right end to 50 for 4 yards (93-G.Halton; 54-F.Warner).
Q206:40 (6:40) 28-T.Badie right guard to SF 47 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner). Play 1324 (6:40) 28-T.Badie right guard to SF 47 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q206:01 (6:01) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Play 1346 (6:01) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
Q205:53 (5:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins pushed ob at SF 42 for 5 yards (20-U.Stout). Play 1383 (5:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins pushed ob at SF 42 for 5 yards (20-U.Stout).
Q205:18 (5:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (6-M.Mustapha). Play 1413 (5:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (6-M.Mustapha).
Q205:13 (5:13) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SF 42 - No Play. Play 1436 (5:13) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SF 42 - No Play.
Q205:13 (5:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. Play 1455 (5:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
Q205:01 (5:01) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 38 for 18 yards (9-T.Hufanga) [99-Z.Allen]. Play 1488 (5:01) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 38 for 18 yards (9-T.Hufanga) [99-Z.Allen].
Q204:18 (4:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 40 for 2 yards (99-Z.Allen; 2-P.Surtain). Play 1520 (4:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 40 for 2 yards (99-Z.Allen; 2-P.Surtain).
Q203:41 (3:41) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 47 for 7 yards (99-Z.Allen). Play 1542 (3:41) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 47 for 7 yards (99-Z.Allen).
Q203:04 (3:04) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 43 for 10 yards (2-P.Surtain; 9-T.Hufanga). Play 1569 (3:04) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 43 for 10 yards (2-P.Surtain; 9-T.Hufanga).
Q202:21 (2:21) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 5-M.Evans. Play 1596 (2:21) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 5-M.Evans.
Q202:15 (2:15) 19-D.Samuel left end to DEN 23 for 20 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 1619 (2:15) 19-D.Samuel left end to DEN 23 for 20 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 19-D.Samuel (93-D.Jones) [93-D.Jones]. Play 1641 (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 19-D.Samuel (93-D.Jones) [93-D.Jones].
Q201:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to DEN 11 for 12 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 1671 (1:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to DEN 11 for 12 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q201:50 Timeout #1 by DEN at 01:50. Play 1708 Timeout #1 by DEN at 01:50.
Q201:50 (1:50) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 9 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 1696 (1:50) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 9 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q201:47 Timeout #2 by DEN at 01:47. Play 1737 Timeout #2 by DEN at 01:47.
Q201:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy right guard to DEN 6 for 3 yards (97-M.Roach). Play 1725 (1:47) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy right guard to DEN 6 for 3 yards (97-M.Roach).
Q201:43 Timeout #3 by DEN at 01:43. Play 1766 Timeout #3 by DEN at 01:43.
Q201:43 (1:43) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-M.Evans. Play 1754 (1:43) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-M.Evans.
Q201:38 (1:38) 18-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 1784 (1:38) 18-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q201:36 18-E.Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 20. Play 1804 18-E.Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 20.
Q201:36 (1:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 25 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner). Play 1828 (1:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 25 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q201:17 (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey pushed ob at DEN 29 for 4 yards (0-R.Green). Play 1853 (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey pushed ob at DEN 29 for 4 yards (0-R.Green).
Q201:10 (1:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 33 for 4 yards (2-D.Lenoir). PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 33. Play 1883 (1:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 33 for 4 yards (2-D.Lenoir). PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 33.
Q201:00 (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. Play 1919 (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.
Q200:56 (:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Play 1942 (:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
Q200:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. Play 1965 (:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.
Q200:47 (:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to SF 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 1988 (:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to SF 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q200:41 (:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 85-G.Kittle. Play 2007 (:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 85-G.Kittle.
Q200:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 42 for 24 yards (22-B.Jones). DEN-2-P.Surtain was injured during the play. Play 2037 (:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 42 for 24 yards (22-B.Jones). DEN-2-P.Surtain was injured during the play.
Q200:30 Timeout #4 by DEN at 00:30. Play 2077 Timeout #4 by DEN at 00:30.
Q200:30 (:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss; 29-J.McMillian). Play 2065 (:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss; 29-J.McMillian).
Q200:25 Timeout #2 by SF at 00:25. Play 2109 Timeout #2 by SF at 00:25.
Q200:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right end pushed ob at DEN 49 for 5 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 2097 (:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles right end pushed ob at DEN 49 for 5 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to DEN 41 for 8 yards (21-R.Moss) [99-Z.Allen]. Play 2131 (:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to DEN 41 for 8 yards (21-R.Moss) [99-Z.Allen].
Q200:13 Timeout #3 by SF at 00:13. Play 2168 Timeout #3 by SF at 00:13.
Q200:13 (:13) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to DEN 36 for 5 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 2156 (:13) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to DEN 36 for 5 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q200:05 (:05) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 2188 (:05) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q200:04 (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-Z.Allen), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman, RECOVERED by DEN-9-T.Hufanga at DEN 37. 9-T.Hufanga to DEN 42 for 5 yards (89-L.Farrell). FUMBLES (89-L.Farrell), recovered by DEN-26-D.Key at DEN 42. 26-D.Key to DEN 46 for 4 yards (89-L.Farrell; 68-C.McKivitz). Play 2223 (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-Z.Allen), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman, RECOVERED by DEN-9-T.Hufanga at DEN 37. 9-T.Hufanga to DEN 42 for 5 yards (89-L.Farrell). FUMBLES (89-L.Farrell), recovered by DEN-26-D.Key at DEN 42. 26-D.Key to DEN 46 for 4 yards (89-L.Farrell; 68-C.McKivitz).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2269 Q315:00 3-W.Lutz kicks 61 yards from DEN 35 to SF 4. 19-D.Samuel to SF 30 for 26 yards (55-J.Turner). FUMBLES (55-J.Turner), recovered by SF-9-B.Willis at SF 29. 9-B.Willis to SF 31 for 2 yards. Play 2289 3-W.Lutz kicks 61 yards from DEN 35 to SF 4. 19-D.Samuel to SF 30 for 26 yards (55-J.Turner). FUMBLES (55-J.Turner), recovered by SF-9-B.Willis at SF 29. 9-B.Willis to SF 31 for 2 yards.
Q314:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle to SF 32 for 1 yard (15-N.Bonitto). Play 2333 (14:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle to SF 32 for 1 yard (15-N.Bonitto).
Q314:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle. Penalty on SF, Illegal Shift, declined. Play 2355 (14:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle. Penalty on SF, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q314:09 (14:09) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 84-B.Cooks (23-J.Barron). Play 2389 (14:09) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 84-B.Cooks (23-J.Barron).
Q314:05 (14:05) 15-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. Play 2412 (14:05) 15-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
Q313:56 (13:56) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 25 for 2 yards (36-M.Sigle). SF-36-M.Sigle was injured during the play. Play 2434 (13:56) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 25 for 2 yards (36-M.Sigle). SF-36-M.Sigle was injured during the play.
Q313:23 (13:23) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 26 for 1 yard (93-G.Halton; 57-D.Greenlaw). Play 2471 (13:23) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 26 for 1 yard (93-G.Halton; 57-D.Greenlaw).
Q312:43 (12:43) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 13-P.Bryant ran ob at DEN 37 for 11 yards (20-U.Stout). Play 2500 (12:43) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 13-P.Bryant ran ob at DEN 37 for 11 yards (20-U.Stout).
Q312:17 (12:17) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 82-A.Trautman (54-F.Warner). Play 2530 (12:17) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 82-A.Trautman (54-F.Warner).
Q312:10 (12:10) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 42 for 5 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 56-K.White). Play 2565 (12:10) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 42 for 5 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 56-K.White).
Q311:28 (11:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left tackle pushed ob at DEN 45 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Play 2592 (11:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left tackle pushed ob at DEN 45 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
Q310:52 (10:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to SF 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. Play 2622 (10:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to SF 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.
Q310:44 (10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (97-M.Roach). Play 2642 (10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (97-M.Roach).
Q310:40 (10:40) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 11 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 2672 (10:40) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 11 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q309:59 (9:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 5-M.Evans. Play 2694 (9:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 5-M.Evans.
Q309:52 (9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims). Play 2717 (9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
Q309:40 (9:40) 19-D.Samuel right end to DEN 26 for 2 yards (94-J.Jackson). Play 2759 (9:40) 19-D.Samuel right end to DEN 26 for 2 yards (94-J.Jackson).
Q308:56 (8:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to DEN 19 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton; 23-J.Barron). Play 2781 (8:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to DEN 19 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton; 23-J.Barron).
Q308:10 (8:10) 26-K.Black right end to DEN 19 for no gain (22-B.Jones; 23-J.Barron). Play 2806 (8:10) 26-K.Black right end to DEN 19 for no gain (22-B.Jones; 23-J.Barron).
Q307:24 (7:24) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 2828 (7:24) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q306:50 (6:50) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 18 for -1 yards (49-A.Singleton, 40-J.Strnad). Play 2852 (6:50) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 18 for -1 yards (49-A.Singleton, 40-J.Strnad).
Q306:12 (6:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end pushed ob at DEN 7 for 11 yards (15-N.Bonitto). Play 2874 (6:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end pushed ob at DEN 7 for 11 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
Q305:40 (5:40) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 1 for 6 yards (22-B.Jones; 15-N.Bonitto). Play 2901 (5:40) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 1 for 6 yards (22-B.Jones; 15-N.Bonitto).
Q305:01 (5:01) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (99-Z.Allen). Play 2926 (5:01) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (99-Z.Allen).
Q304:22 (4:22) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2957 (4:22) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q304:15 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 2983 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q304:15 18-E.Pineiro kicks 61 yards from SF 35 to DEN 4. 28-T.Badie pushed ob at DEN 34 for 30 yards (51-L.Gifford). ** Injury Update: SF-36-M.Sigle has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-55-J.Turner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25. Play 2998 18-E.Pineiro kicks 61 yards from SF 35 to DEN 4. 28-T.Badie pushed ob at DEN 34 for 30 yards (51-L.Gifford). ** Injury Update: SF-36-M.Sigle has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-55-J.Turner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.
Q304:08 (4:08) 12-R.Harvey right guard to DEN 15 for no gain (57-D.Greenlaw). Play 3049 (4:08) 12-R.Harvey right guard to DEN 15 for no gain (57-D.Greenlaw).
Q303:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left guard to DEN 19 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Play 3079 (3:29) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left guard to DEN 19 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
Q302:48 (2:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 49 for 30 yards (27-J.Brown; 2-D.Lenoir). DEN-13-P.Bryant was injured during the play. Play 3101 (2:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 49 for 30 yards (27-J.Brown; 2-D.Lenoir). DEN-13-P.Bryant was injured during the play.
Q302:07 (2:07) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 42 for 9 yards (27-J.Brown). Play 3129 (2:07) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 42 for 9 yards (27-J.Brown).
Q301:23 (1:23) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to SF 40 for 2 yards (55-S.Valdez; 57-D.Greenlaw). Play 3163 (1:23) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to SF 40 for 2 yards (55-S.Valdez; 57-D.Greenlaw).
Q300:42 (:42) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to SF 37 for 3 yards (93-G.Halton; 47-K.Kareem). Play 3185 (:42) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to SF 37 for 3 yards (93-G.Halton; 47-K.Kareem).
Q300:02 (:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to SF 30 for 7 yards (20-U.Stout). Play 3207 (:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to SF 30 for 7 yards (20-U.Stout).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3232 Q415:00 (15:00) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right [55-S.Valdez]. Play 3252 (15:00) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right [55-S.Valdez].
Q414:56 (14:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 19-M.Mims. Play 3275 (14:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 19-M.Mims.
Q414:53 (14:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 22 for 8 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Play 3298 (14:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 22 for 8 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
Q414:12 (14:12) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 3328 (14:12) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q414:08 3-W.Lutz kicks 64 yards from DEN 35 to SF 1. 4-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 25 yards (46-A.Prentice; 47-K.Reid). Play 3348 3-W.Lutz kicks 64 yards from DEN 35 to SF 1. 4-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 25 yards (46-A.Prentice; 47-K.Reid).
Q414:03 (14:03) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk to SF 42 for 16 yards (23-J.Barron) [99-Z.Allen]. SF-44-K.Juszczyk was injured during the play. Play 3371 (14:03) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk to SF 42 for 16 yards (23-J.Barron) [99-Z.Allen]. SF-44-K.Juszczyk was injured during the play.
Q413:43 (13:43) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 5-M.Evans to DEN 49 for 9 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 3399 (13:43) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 5-M.Evans to DEN 49 for 9 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q413:07 (13:07) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 35 for 14 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 3431 (13:07) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DEN 35 for 14 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q412:30 (12:30) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to DEN 34 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones; 99-Z.Allen). Play 3453 (12:30) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to DEN 34 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones; 99-Z.Allen).
Q411:54 (11:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 26 for 8 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 3475 (11:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 26 for 8 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q411:16 (11:16) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 23 for 3 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 3500 (11:16) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 23 for 3 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q410:39 (10:39) 26-K.Black right tackle to DEN 23 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 23 - No Play. Play 3522 (10:39) 26-K.Black right tackle to DEN 23 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 23 - No Play.
Q410:18 (10:18) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to DEN 1 for 17 yards (9-T.Hufanga). Play 3555 (10:18) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to DEN 1 for 17 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
Q409:34 (9:34) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to DEN 1 for no gain (9-T.Hufanga; 49-A.Singleton). Play 3580 (9:34) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to DEN 1 for no gain (9-T.Hufanga; 49-A.Singleton).
Q408:55 (8:55) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3607 (8:55) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q408:52 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 3640 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q408:52 18-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to DEN 3. 12-R.Harvey to DEN 30 for 27 yards (89-L.Farrell). Play 3655 18-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to DEN 3. 12-R.Harvey to DEN 30 for 27 yards (89-L.Farrell).
Q408:48 (8:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 48 for 18 yards (36-M.Sigle). Play 3690 (8:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 48 for 18 yards (36-M.Sigle).
Q408:11 (8:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to SF 44 for 8 yards (2-D.Lenoir). Play 3715 (8:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to SF 44 for 8 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
Q407:40 (7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to SF 42 for 2 yards (94-R.Height). Play 3737 (7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to SF 42 for 2 yards (94-R.Height).
Q407:02 (7:02) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to SF 40 for 2 yards (55-S.Valdez). Play 3759 (7:02) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to SF 40 for 2 yards (55-S.Valdez).
Q406:24 (6:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 33 for 7 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (57-D.Greenlaw), recovered by DEN-77-Q.Meinerz at SF 31. Play 3781 (6:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 33 for 7 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (57-D.Greenlaw), recovered by DEN-77-Q.Meinerz at SF 31.
Q405:26 (5:26) 12-R.Harvey left guard to SF 22 for 9 yards (25-J.Jones). Play 3822 (5:26) 12-R.Harvey left guard to SF 22 for 9 yards (25-J.Jones).
Q404:50 (4:50) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to SF 13 for 9 yards (36-M.Sigle). Play 3844 (4:50) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to SF 13 for 9 yards (36-M.Sigle).
Q404:10 (4:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3866 (4:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q404:05 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 28-T.Badie rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 3892 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 28-T.Badie rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q404:05 3-W.Lutz kicks 58 yards from DEN 35 to SF 7. 19-D.Samuel to SF 31 for 24 yards (55-J.Turner). Play 3905 3-W.Lutz kicks 58 yards from DEN 35 to SF 7. 19-D.Samuel to SF 31 for 24 yards (55-J.Turner).
Q404:00 (4:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey. Play 3928 (4:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey.
Q403:57 (3:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 40 for 9 yards (51-Q.Robinson). Play 3951 (3:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 40 for 9 yards (51-Q.Robinson).
Q403:12 (3:12) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to SF 42 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton; 97-M.Roach). Play 3976 (3:12) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to SF 42 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton; 97-M.Roach).
Q402:29 (2:29) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 44 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton; 40-J.Strnad). Play 3998 (2:29) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 44 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton; 40-J.Strnad).
Q402:25 Timeout #1 by DEN at 02:25. Play 4032 Timeout #1 by DEN at 02:25.
Q402:25 (2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4020 (2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q402:15 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. Play 4053 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
Q402:15 18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to DEN 5. 12-R.Harvey MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 5. 12-R.Harvey to DEN 42 for 37 yards (51-L.Gifford). SF-36-M.Sigle was injured during the play. Play 4068 18-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to DEN 5. 12-R.Harvey MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 5. 12-R.Harvey to DEN 42 for 37 yards (51-L.Gifford). SF-36-M.Sigle was injured during the play.
Q402:07 (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie to DEN 49 for 7 yards (0-R.Green). ** Injury Update: SF-20-U.Stout has returned to the game. Play 4094 (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie to DEN 49 for 7 yards (0-R.Green). ** Injury Update: SF-20-U.Stout has returned to the game.
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 1-E.Engram. Play 4143 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 1-E.Engram.
Q401:56 (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to SF 26 for 25 yards (6-M.Mustapha) [56-K.White]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims [56-K.White]. Play 4176 (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to SF 26 for 25 yards (6-M.Mustapha) [56-K.White]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims [56-K.White].
Q401:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to SF 45 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Play 4240 (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to SF 45 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
Q401:36 (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. Play 4265 (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton.
Q401:29 (1:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. Play 4288 (1:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton.
Q401:24 (1:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to SF 40 for 5 yards (2-D.Lenoir). Play 4311 (1:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to SF 40 for 5 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
Q401:18 Timeout #2 by DEN at 01:18. Play 4348 Timeout #2 by DEN at 01:18.
Q401:18 (1:18) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 4336 (1:18) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q401:14 (1:14) 13-B.Purdy kneels to SF 47 for -1 yards. Play 4364 (1:14) 13-B.Purdy kneels to SF 47 for -1 yards.
Q400:36 (:36) 13-B.Purdy kneels to SF 46 for -1 yards. Play 4386 (:36) 13-B.Purdy kneels to SF 46 for -1 yards.
Elapsed share 0.7633333333333333
Game seconds remaining 852
Half seconds remaining 852
Quarter seconds remaining 852
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2444028811780753 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24440/0.20141/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN -0.69 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q310:52 Fourth down · DEN (10:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to SF 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 3.1 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.308219444707483
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.5688888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1552
Half seconds remaining 1552
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 652
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4624666864246693 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46247/ NA/0.43142 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:02 Penalty · DEN (13:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF 1.75 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 7
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2582
Half seconds remaining 782
Quarter seconds remaining 782
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 2
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2582
Half seconds remaining 782
Quarter seconds remaining 782
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SF 0.87 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 7
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2582
Half seconds remaining 782
Quarter seconds remaining 782
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 2
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2582
Half seconds remaining 782
Quarter seconds remaining 782
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q401:18 Kick · DEN (1:18) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 1.56 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.0599214318119749
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.9783333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 78
Half seconds remaining 78
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 78
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.01564125402887953 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01564/0.00000/0.00024 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN -0.69 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q210:36 Fourth down · SF (10:36) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to DEN 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. + Fourth down decision cost SF 1.14 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.8230642241913826
Yardline 100 79
Elapsed share 0.3233333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2436
Half seconds remaining 636
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 636
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.447182496537454 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44718/ NA/0.43578 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:06 Penalty · DEN (9:06) PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF 0.79 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 5
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2346
Half seconds remaining 546
Quarter seconds remaining 546
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2346
Half seconds remaining 546
Quarter seconds remaining 546
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SF 1.09 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 5
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2346
Half seconds remaining 546
Quarter seconds remaining 546
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2346
Half seconds remaining 546
Quarter seconds remaining 546
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q205:13 Penalty · DEN (5:13) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SF 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF 0.3 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2113
Half seconds remaining 313
Quarter seconds remaining 313
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 5
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2113
Half seconds remaining 313
Quarter seconds remaining 313
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SF 0.4 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2113
Half seconds remaining 313
Quarter seconds remaining 313
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 5
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2113
Half seconds remaining 313
Quarter seconds remaining 313
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q114:17 Fourth down · DEN (14:17) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to SF 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 2.860036854364965
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.01194444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3557
Half seconds remaining 1757
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3833626888390324 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37437/ NA/0.38336 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:38 Fourth down · SF (9:38) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. + Fourth down decision cost SF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 2.097685325523275
Yardline 100 64
Elapsed share 0.08944444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3278
Half seconds remaining 1478
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 578
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.576198699630929 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56097/ NA/0.57620 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:48 Kick · DEN (1:48) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 1.244348735044744
Yardline 100 34
Elapsed share 0.22
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2808
Half seconds remaining 1008
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 108
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4415957233767633 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41970/0.44160/0.40935 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN -0.69 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q214:30 Fourth down · SF (14:30) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to DEN 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton). + Fourth down decision cost SF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 1.067456755612026
Yardline 100 34
Elapsed share 0.2583333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2670
Half seconds remaining 870
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 870
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5376330364688718 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53763/0.51269/0.47330 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:43 Fourth down · DEN (12:43) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to SF 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.947801740062439
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.2880555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2563
Half seconds remaining 763
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 763
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5323433415650625 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.50243/ NA/0.53234 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 64 recorded events Q205:13 Fourth down · DEN (5:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.5748708146768531
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.4130555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2113
Half seconds remaining 313
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 313
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5301225449499357 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51425/0.48249/0.53012 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:47 Fourth down · DEN (:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to SF 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.4277717632332164
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.4869444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q314:05 Fourth down · SF (14:05) 15-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost SF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.3819372990566237
Yardline 100 68
Elapsed share 0.5152777777777777
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q309:52 Fumble · SF (9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims). + Fourth down decision cost SF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.2883414434464168
Yardline 100 89
Elapsed share 0.5855555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam SF
Q307:24 Fourth down · SF (7:24) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones). + Fourth down decision cost SF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.2446187560919603
Yardline 100 19
Elapsed share 0.6266666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q401:52 Fourth down · DEN (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to SF 45 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.06222843266468704
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.9688888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q109:31 Penalty · DEN (9:31) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to DEN 16 for 5 yards (93-G.Halton; 36-M.Sigle). PENALTY on DEN-19-M.Mims, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:41 Penalty · DEN (3:41) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 55-S.Valdez). PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 33 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:38 Kick · SF (1:38) 18-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Fourth down decision cost SF 0.5 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SF
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team DEN
Home team SF
Away total 22.75
Home total 25.75
Total line 48.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.4527121334720132
Yardline 100 6
Elapsed share 0.4727777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam SF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q201:10 Penalty · DEN (1:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 33 for 4 yards (2-D.Lenoir). PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 33. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q200:04 Fumble · SF (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-Z.Allen), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman, RECOVERED by DEN-9-T.Hufanga at DEN 37. 9-T.Hufanga to DEN 42 for 5 yards (89-L.Farrell). FUMBLES (89-L.Farrell), recovered by DEN-26-D.Key at DEN 42. 26-D.Key to DEN 46 for 4 yards (89-L.Farrell; 68-C.McKivitz). + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q315:00 Fumble · SF 3-W.Lutz kicks 61 yards from DEN 35 to SF 4. 19-D.Samuel to SF 30 for 26 yards (55-J.Turner). FUMBLES (55-J.Turner), recovered by SF-9-B.Willis at SF 29. 9-B.Willis to SF 31 for 2 yards. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q314:15 Fourth down · SF (14:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle. Penalty on SF, Illegal Shift, declined. + Observed ruling consequence SF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:15 Kick · SF 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Extra point points above expectation SF 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q304:15 Penalty · DEN 18-E.Pineiro kicks 61 yards from SF 35 to DEN 4. 28-T.Badie pushed ob at DEN 34 for 30 yards (51-L.Gifford). ** Injury Update: SF-36-M.Sigle has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-55-J.Turner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:39 Penalty · SF (10:39) 26-K.Black right tackle to DEN 23 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:52 Kick · SF 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Extra point points above expectation SF 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q406:24 Fumble · DEN (6:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 33 for 7 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (57-D.Greenlaw), recovered by DEN-77-Q.Meinerz at SF 31. + Fumble recoveries above expectation SF -0.65 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.65 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:15 Kick · SF 18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. + Extra point points above expectation SF 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q104:30 Execution · DEN (4:30) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle. + Charted drops DEN 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q112:54 Execution · SF (12:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel to SF 28 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton; 40-J.Strnad). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q110:23 Execution · SF (10:23) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to SF 36 for 3 yards (2-P.Surtain). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q100:40 Execution · SF (:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 37 for 4 yards (22-B.Jones). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q212:36 Execution · SF (12:36) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 16 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q205:01 Execution · SF (5:01) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 38 for 18 yards (9-T.Hufanga) [99-Z.Allen]. + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q201:55 Execution · SF (1:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to DEN 11 for 12 yards (49-A.Singleton). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q200:38 Execution · SF (:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-M.Evans to SF 42 for 24 yards (22-B.Jones). DEN-2-P.Surtain was injured during the play. + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q200:30 Execution · SF (:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss; 29-J.McMillian). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q200:18 Execution · SF (:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to DEN 41 for 8 yards (21-R.Moss) [99-Z.Allen]. + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q200:13 Execution · SF (:13) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to DEN 36 for 5 yards (49-A.Singleton). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q308:56 Execution · SF (8:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to DEN 19 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton; 23-J.Barron). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q305:40 Execution · SF (5:40) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 1 for 6 yards (22-B.Jones; 15-N.Bonitto). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q304:22 Execution · SF (4:22) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q414:03 Execution · SF (14:03) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk to SF 42 for 16 yards (23-J.Barron) [99-Z.Allen]. SF-44-K.Juszczyk was injured during the play. + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q413:43 Execution · SF (13:43) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 5-M.Evans to DEN 49 for 9 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q411:54 Execution · SF (11:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to DEN 26 for 8 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q410:18 Execution · SF (10:18) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to DEN 1 for 17 yards (9-T.Hufanga). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q404:00 Execution · SF (4:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey. + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q403:57 Execution · SF (3:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 40 for 9 yards (51-Q.Robinson). + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q402:25 Execution · SF (2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets SF 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 29/29 eligible events modeled
Q115:00 Execution · DEN (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 37 for 2 yards (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q109:12 Execution · DEN (9:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 12 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q108:27 Execution · DEN (8:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 18 for 6 yards (94-R.Height). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q107:46 Execution · DEN (7:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie ran ob at DEN 43 for 25 yards (36-M.Sigle). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q106:35 Execution · DEN (6:35) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to SF 49 for 2 yards (27-J.Brown). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q104:23 Execution · DEN (4:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to SF 33 for 10 yards (36-M.Sigle; 92-O.Odighizuwa). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q103:18 Execution · DEN (3:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 1-E.Engram (54-F.Warner). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q103:11 Execution · DEN (3:11) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 40 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 20-U.Stout). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q102:27 Execution · DEN (2:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to SF 34 for 6 yards (20-U.Stout). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q213:45 Execution · DEN (13:45) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 42 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 36-M.Sigle). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q209:50 Execution · DEN (9:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 39 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q205:53 Execution · DEN (5:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins pushed ob at SF 42 for 5 yards (20-U.Stout). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q201:36 Execution · DEN (1:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 25 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q201:17 Execution · DEN (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey pushed ob at DEN 29 for 4 yards (0-R.Green). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q312:43 Execution · DEN (12:43) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 13-P.Bryant ran ob at DEN 37 for 11 yards (20-U.Stout). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q312:17 Execution · DEN (12:17) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 82-A.Trautman (54-F.Warner). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q302:48 Execution · DEN (2:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 49 for 30 yards (27-J.Brown; 2-D.Lenoir). DEN-13-P.Bryant was injured during the play. + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q302:07 Execution · DEN (2:07) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 42 for 9 yards (27-J.Brown). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q300:02 Execution · DEN (:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to SF 30 for 7 yards (20-U.Stout). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q414:53 Execution · DEN (14:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SF 22 for 8 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q408:48 Execution · DEN (8:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 48 for 18 yards (36-M.Sigle). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q404:10 Execution · DEN (4:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q402:07 Execution · DEN (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie to DEN 49 for 7 yards (0-R.Green). ** Injury Update: SF-20-U.Stout has returned to the game. + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
Q401:24 Execution · DEN (1:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to SF 40 for 5 yards (2-D.Lenoir). + Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 a67ef7760db5648e312c86afad288c2d3153baf0e167da5d4c506147b9ec4674Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: b40cd5325b6e1d41a23c1b0ec0432fe5c8e1d9af40fdc3e40f7604316f2d0d15
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 16 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 8:17 AM UTC Version 15 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 7, 2026, 8:44 PM UTC Version 10 ↗ Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 2:57 PM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 6, 2026, 8:37 AM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 9:24 PM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Oct 5, 2026, 2:04 PM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 5:18 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 11:58 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1847
Quarter seconds remaining 47
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4014881349040387 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37246/ NA/0.40149 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1745
Half seconds remaining 1745
Quarter seconds remaining 845
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5291090701007499 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49751/ NA/0.52911 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home receive 2h ko
0
Game seconds remaining 1492
Half seconds remaining 1492
Quarter seconds remaining 592
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4817792193801314 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47433/ NA/0.48178 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1344
Half seconds remaining 1344
Quarter seconds remaining 444
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6544512010516602 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65445/0.59974/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-10
Game seconds remaining 112
Half seconds remaining 112
Quarter seconds remaining 112
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.01878322697041135 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01878/0.00442/0.00604 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DEN 28 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled
-3
Game seconds remaining 1898
Quarter seconds remaining 98
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5492692344796207 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54927/0.54425/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation SF 0.02 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DEN Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 42/42 eligible events modeled