Skip to content
Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: CAR by 0.4; actual result: CAR by 6.
The 5.6-point difference was matched or exceeded in 412 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty count: 17 versus 11.9 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 383 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: DET by 4.5; actual result: CAR by 6. The difference was 10.5 points.
2,969 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Detroit Lions by 4.5
Final margin Carolina Panthers by 6
Difference 10.5 points
Carolina Panthers covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
2,969 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (40.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score CAR by 0.4
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Carolina Panthers chance to win during the game 165 preplay estimates across 198 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 33 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
CAR Observed ruling consequence 2.97 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Ruling expected points consequence 0.63 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 2 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 03:26 Recorded game event
Carolina Panthers · Play 4564 (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 48 for 11 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). PENALTY on CAR-73-S.Forsythe, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 37 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:12 Recorded game event
Carolina Panthers · Play 4756 (2:12) (Punt formation) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DET 46 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.9 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 198 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 198 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 65 yards from CAR 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DET 35. Play 39 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 65 yards from CAR 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DET 35.
Q115:00 (15:00) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 42 for 7 yards (91-P.Jones). Play 56 (15:00) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 42 for 7 yards (91-P.Jones).
Q114:27 (14:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to DET 48 for 6 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 78 (14:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to DET 48 for 6 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q113:54 (13:54) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 34 for 18 yards (58-B.Okereke; 7-T.Moehrig). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 108 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q311:25 Penalty · CAR (11:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan [97-A.Hutchinson]. PENALTY on DET-21-R.McCreary, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DET 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR 9.92 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1580
Half seconds remaining 1580
Quarter seconds remaining 680
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 7, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 26bc95c58183063e5e113cfc1ba7285989a2b054a299abd242ea547dfcf8e5a5CAR by 6
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
412 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 383 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Clay Martin Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.8 accepted penalties for 99.4 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.7 / 48.1 yd per game. Away teams: 6.1 / 51.3 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Clay Martin; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Carolina Panthers · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Carolina Panthers · Opponent penalties Opponent DET was charged 9 penalties for 67 yards.
Detroit Lions · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Detroit Lions · Opponent penalties Opponent CAR was charged 8 penalties for 60 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 165 model estimates across 198 recorded game entries.
33 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (198 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence -3.71 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Ruling expected points consequence -1.45 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence -6.39 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Ruling expected points consequence -0.74 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence 9.92 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Ruling expected points consequence 2.11 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence 0.55 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Ruling expected points consequence 0.17 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence 0.23 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Ruling expected points consequence 0.28 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DET Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence 0.49 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Ruling expected points consequence 0.8 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence -0.95 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Ruling expected points consequence -0.17 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
DET Fourth down decision cost 0.22 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65026/0.64804/0.64552 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25586/ NA/0.27412 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 1.81 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54172/0.52366/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42925/0.38312/0.40572 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.40684/0.43927/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 4.68 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46313/0.41633/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16740/0.14915/0.17815 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0.13 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84530/0.84658/0.83733 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.89897/0.91714/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 1.03 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04476/0.05509/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94140/ NA/0.94290 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05500/0.04254/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.78082/0.70238/0.82004 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DET Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
CAR Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
DET Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
CAR Field goal points above expectation 0.67 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DET Field goal points above expectation 1.71 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
CAR Extra point points above expectation -1.84 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 98th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
DET Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
CAR Charted drops 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DET Charted drops 3 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CAR Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DET Interception worthy throws 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CAR QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DET QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CAR Catchable targets 30 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DET Catchable targets 35 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CAR Contested targets 7 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DET Contested targets 10 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CAR Receiver created receptions 2 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DET Receiver created receptions 2 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
DET Presnap called penalties above expectation 4.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 6 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DET Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.28 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DET Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.57 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
47 of 47 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 47 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DET Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
47 of 47 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 47 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CAR Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.68 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CAR Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.86 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CAR Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.57 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 54 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CAR Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.38 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 54 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 108
(13:54) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 34 for 18 yards (58-B.Okereke; 7-T.Moehrig).
Q113:15 (13:15) PENALTY on DET-89-B.Wright, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 34 - No Play. Play 133 (13:15) PENALTY on DET-89-B.Wright, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 34 - No Play.
Q112:59 (12:59) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs left guard to CAR 36 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke; 91-P.Jones). Play 162 (12:59) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs left guard to CAR 36 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke; 91-P.Jones).
Q112:17 (12:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa (58-B.Okereke). Play 184 (12:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa (58-B.Okereke).
Q112:13 (12:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 87-S.LaPorta. Play 207 (12:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 87-S.LaPorta.
Q112:09 Timeout #1 by DET at 12:09. Play 248 Timeout #1 by DET at 12:09.
Q112:09 (12:09) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 230 (12:09) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q112:05 39-J.Bates kicks 59 yards from DET 35 to CAR 6. 83-D.Moore ran ob at CAR 36 for 30 yards (5-C.Izien). Play 257 39-J.Bates kicks 59 yards from DET 35 to CAR 6. 83-D.Moore ran ob at CAR 36 for 30 yards (5-C.Izien).
Q111:59 (11:59) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 41 for 5 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 292 (11:59) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 41 for 5 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q111:21 (11:21) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 37 for -4 yards (41-J.Rolder). Play 317 (11:21) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 37 for -4 yards (41-J.Rolder).
Q110:44 (10:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 47 for 10 yards (4-D.Reed) [8-D.Moore]. Play 339 (10:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 47 for 10 yards (4-D.Reed) [8-D.Moore].
Q110:07 (10:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie to DET 27 for 26 yards (5-C.Izien; 36-C.Clark). PENALTY on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 47 - No Play. Play 364 (10:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie to DET 27 for 26 yards (5-C.Izien; 36-C.Clark). PENALTY on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 47 - No Play.
Q109:42 (9:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 46 for 12 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 400 (9:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 46 for 12 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q109:10 (9:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DET 45 for 1 yard (91-T.Williams). Play 425 (9:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DET 45 for 1 yard (91-T.Williams).
Q108:32 (8:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 45 for -10 yards (54-A.McNeill). Play 447 (8:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 45 for -10 yards (54-A.McNeill).
Q107:49 (7:49) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DET 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. Play 467 (7:49) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DET 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
Q107:41 (7:41) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 21 for 10 yards (7-T.Moehrig). PENALTY on DET-70-J.Scruggs, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 11 - No Play. Play 487 (7:41) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 21 for 10 yards (7-T.Moehrig). PENALTY on DET-70-J.Scruggs, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 11 - No Play.
Q107:17 (7:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 11 for 5 yards (29-A.Evans) [55-D.Lloyd]. Play 527 (7:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 11 for 5 yards (29-A.Evans) [55-D.Lloyd].
Q106:39 (6:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Williams. Play 557 (6:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Williams.
Q106:34 (6:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 15 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott). Play 580 (6:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 15 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q105:59 (5:59) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. PENALTY on CAR-38-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 38. Penalty on CAR-27-I.Simmons, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 605 (5:59) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. PENALTY on CAR-38-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 38. Penalty on CAR-27-I.Simmons, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q105:50 (5:50) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 37 for 9 yards (21-R.McCreary) [93-T.Lacy]. Penalty on DET-95-L.Onwuzurike, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 640 (5:50) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 37 for 9 yards (21-R.McCreary) [93-T.Lacy]. Penalty on DET-95-L.Onwuzurike, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q105:31 (5:31) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 40 for 3 yards (95-L.Onwuzurike; 4-D.Reed). Play 683 (5:31) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 40 for 3 yards (95-L.Onwuzurike; 4-D.Reed).
Q104:56 (4:56) 30-C.Hubbard left end to CAR 46 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 705 (4:56) 30-C.Hubbard left end to CAR 46 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q104:23 (4:23) 9-B.Young scrambles right end pushed ob at DET 47 for 7 yards (5-C.Izien). Play 727 (4:23) 9-B.Young scrambles right end pushed ob at DET 47 for 7 yards (5-C.Izien).
Q103:50 (3:50) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DET 43 for 4 yards (41-J.Rolder). Play 754 (3:50) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DET 43 for 4 yards (41-J.Rolder).
Q103:12 (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to DET 36 for 7 yards (41-J.Rolder) [97-A.Hutchinson]. Play 779 (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to DET 36 for 7 yards (41-J.Rolder) [97-A.Hutchinson].
Q102:32 (2:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 15 for 21 yards (36-C.Clark; 46-J.Campbell). Play 804 (2:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 15 for 21 yards (36-C.Clark; 46-J.Campbell).
Q101:56 (1:56) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 829 (1:56) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q101:50 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 852 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q101:50 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 64 yards from CAR 35 to DET 1. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 27 for 26 yards (38-R.Rochell). Play 867 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 64 yards from CAR 35 to DET 1. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 27 for 26 yards (38-R.Rochell).
Q101:45 (1:45) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 25 for -2 yards (94-A.Hall). Play 897 (1:45) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 25 for -2 yards (94-A.Hall).
Q101:06 (1:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 36 for 11 yards (55-D.Lloyd). PENALTY on CAR-52-T.Gipson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DET 36. Play 922 (1:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 36 for 11 yards (55-D.Lloyd). PENALTY on CAR-52-T.Gipson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DET 36.
Q100:41 (:41) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to CAR 45 for 4 yards (94-A.Hall). Play 959 (:41) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle to CAR 45 for 4 yards (94-A.Hall).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 982 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 38 for 7 yards (58-B.Okereke). Play 1002 (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 38 for 7 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q214:25 (14:25) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to CAR 41 for -3 yards (55-D.Lloyd). Play 1027 (14:25) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to CAR 41 for -3 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
Q213:45 (13:45) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle ran ob at CAR 28 for 13 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 1049 (13:45) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle ran ob at CAR 28 for 13 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q213:10 (13:10) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to CAR 25 for 3 yards (7-T.Moehrig). Play 1076 (13:10) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to CAR 25 for 3 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
Q212:49 (12:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 0-J.Gibbs. Play 1098 (12:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 0-J.Gibbs.
Q212:46 (12:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 0-J.Gibbs (22-L.Ransom). Detroit challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.) Play 1138 (12:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 0-J.Gibbs (22-L.Ransom). Detroit challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
Q212:41 (12:41) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 1247 (12:41) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q212:37 39-J.Bates kicks 61 yards from DET 35 to CAR 4. 83-D.Moore to CAR 25 for 21 yards (30-K.Dorsey; 57-A.Ogbongbemiga). Play 1274 39-J.Bates kicks 61 yards from DET 35 to CAR 4. 83-D.Moore to CAR 25 for 21 yards (30-K.Dorsey; 57-A.Ogbongbemiga).
Q212:30 (12:30) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 30 for 5 yards (91-T.Williams). Play 1297 (12:30) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 30 for 5 yards (91-T.Williams).
Q211:54 (11:54) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 26 for -4 yards (54-A.McNeill). Play 1319 (11:54) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 26 for -4 yards (54-A.McNeill).
Q211:14 (11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at DET 48 for 26 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). Play 1341 (11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at DET 48 for 26 yards (2-E.Rakestraw).
Q210:39 (10:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to DET 48 for no gain (44-M.Rodriguez). Penalty on CAR-57-M.Freeling, Illegal Formation, declined. Play 1371 (10:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to DET 48 for no gain (44-M.Rodriguez). Penalty on CAR-57-M.Freeling, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q210:14 (10:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 28-A.Dillon to DET 43 for 5 yards (5-C.Izien). Play 1407 (10:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 28-A.Dillon to DET 43 for 5 yards (5-C.Izien).
Q209:36 (9:36) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left end to DET 42 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson; 91-T.Williams). Play 1432 (9:36) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left end to DET 42 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson; 91-T.Williams).
Q208:52 (8:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 1454 (8:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q208:19 (8:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Waller. Play 1479 (8:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Waller.
Q208:14 (8:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Wonnum]. Play 1502 (8:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Wonnum].
Q208:08 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 1528 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q208:08 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 59 yards from CAR 35 to DET 6. 25-J.Saylors to DET 32 for 26 yards (87-B.Tremayne). Play 1543 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 59 yards from CAR 35 to DET 6. 25-J.Saylors to DET 32 for 26 yards (87-B.Tremayne).
Q208:01 (8:01) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right guard to DET 32 for no gain (24-W.Lee; 55-D.Lloyd). Play 1573 (8:01) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right guard to DET 32 for no gain (24-W.Lee; 55-D.Lloyd).
Q207:25 (7:25) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 33-S.Vaki. Play 1597 (7:25) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 33-S.Vaki.
Q207:21 (7:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 33-S.Vaki to DET 49 for 17 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 26-C.Smith-Wade). Play 1620 (7:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 33-S.Vaki to DET 49 for 17 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 26-C.Smith-Wade).
Q206:41 (6:41) 0-J.Gibbs left end pushed ob at CAR 46 for 5 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 1645 (6:41) 0-J.Gibbs left end pushed ob at CAR 46 for 5 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q206:11 (6:11) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs left end to CAR 46 for no gain (5-J.Phillips; 21-N.Scott). Play 1672 (6:11) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs left end to CAR 46 for no gain (5-J.Phillips; 21-N.Scott).
Q205:33 (5:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to CAR 38 for 8 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 1694 (5:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to CAR 38 for 8 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q204:53 (4:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 24 for 14 yards (7-T.Moehrig). Play 1719 (4:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 24 for 14 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
Q204:08 (4:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at CAR 19 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke). Play 1744 (4:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at CAR 19 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q203:35 (3:35) 0-J.Gibbs right end ran ob at CAR 17 for 2 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). Play 1774 (3:35) 0-J.Gibbs right end ran ob at CAR 17 for 2 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).
Q203:03 Timeout #1 by CAR at 03:03. Play 1815 Timeout #1 by CAR at 03:03.
Q203:03 (3:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to CAR 6 for 11 yards (55-D.Lloyd). Play 1801 (3:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to CAR 6 for 11 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
Q202:23 (2:23) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa [5-J.Phillips]. PENALTY on CAR-29-A.Evans, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 6 - No Play. Play 1835 (2:23) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa [5-J.Phillips]. PENALTY on CAR-29-A.Evans, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 6 - No Play.
Q202:18 (2:18) 79-L.Borom and 50-S.Gill-Howard reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1869 (2:18) 79-L.Borom and 50-S.Gill-Howard reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q202:14 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 1896 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q202:14 39-J.Bates kicks 63 yards from DET 35 to CAR 2. 34-A.Tyus to CAR 30 for 28 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 25-J.Saylors). Play 1911 39-J.Bates kicks 63 yards from DET 35 to CAR 2. 34-A.Tyus to CAR 30 for 28 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 25-J.Saylors).
Q202:07 (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 41 for 11 yards (91-T.Williams; 36-C.Clark). Play 1934 (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 41 for 11 yards (91-T.Williams; 36-C.Clark).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 49 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark; 46-J.Campbell). Play 1959 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 49 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark; 46-J.Campbell).
Q201:38 (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DET 47 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 1991 (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DET 47 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q201:20 (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 4-T.McMillan [50-S.Gill-Howard]. Play 2013 (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 4-T.McMillan [50-S.Gill-Howard].
Q201:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 29 for 18 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). FUMBLES (2-E.Rakestraw), ball out of bounds at DET 29. Play 2036 (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 29 for 18 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). FUMBLES (2-E.Rakestraw), ball out of bounds at DET 29.
Q200:45 (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle. Play 2066 (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle.
Q200:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Metchie (21-R.McCreary). Play 2099 (:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Metchie (21-R.McCreary).
Q200:35 (:35) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 13-J.Metchie. Play 2122 (:35) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 13-J.Metchie.
Q200:32 (:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 2145 (:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q200:28 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 60 yards from CAR 35 to DET 5. 25-J.Saylors to DET 28 for 23 yards (27-I.Simmons; 46-J.Kuwatch). Play 2165 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 60 yards from CAR 35 to DET 5. 25-J.Saylors to DET 28 for 23 yards (27-I.Simmons; 46-J.Kuwatch).
Q200:21 (:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams to CAR 23 for 49 yards (22-L.Ransom; 29-A.Evans). Play 2195 (:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams to CAR 23 for 49 yards (22-L.Ransom; 29-A.Evans).
Q200:15 Timeout #3 by DET at 00:15. Play 2232 Timeout #3 by DET at 00:15.
Q200:15 (:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.TeSlaa (29-A.Evans). Play 2220 (:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.TeSlaa (29-A.Evans).
Q200:10 Timeout #2 by CAR at 00:10. Play 2262 Timeout #2 by CAR at 00:10.
Q200:10 (:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta. Play 2250 (:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta.
Q200:05 (:05) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 2280 (:05) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2300 Q315:00 39-J.Bates kicks 64 yards from DET 35 to CAR 1. 34-A.Tyus to CAR 24 for 23 yards (17-T.Martin; 30-K.Dorsey). Play 2318 39-J.Bates kicks 64 yards from DET 35 to CAR 1. 34-A.Tyus to CAR 24 for 23 yards (17-T.Martin; 30-K.Dorsey).
Q314:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at CAR 29 for 5 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 2344 (14:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at CAR 29 for 5 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q314:32 (14:32) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 33 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell; 91-T.Williams). Play 2369 (14:32) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 33 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell; 91-T.Williams).
Q313:58 (13:58) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to CAR 35 for 2 yards (44-M.Rodriguez; 93-T.Lacy). Play 2396 (13:58) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to CAR 35 for 2 yards (44-M.Rodriguez; 93-T.Lacy).
Q313:19 (13:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 87-B.Tremayne pushed ob at CAR 46 for 11 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 2418 (13:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 87-B.Tremayne pushed ob at CAR 46 for 11 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q312:54 (12:54) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DET 46 for 8 yards (44-M.Rodriguez; 46-J.Campbell). Play 2448 (12:54) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DET 46 for 8 yards (44-M.Rodriguez; 46-J.Campbell).
Q312:20 (12:20) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle [46-J.Campbell]. Play 2470 (12:20) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle [46-J.Campbell].
Q312:16 (12:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-J.Metchie pushed ob at DET 37 for 9 yards (5-C.Izien). Play 2493 (12:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-J.Metchie pushed ob at DET 37 for 9 yards (5-C.Izien).
Q311:39 (11:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR-77-L.Fortner, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 37 - No Play. Play 2523 (11:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR-77-L.Fortner, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 37 - No Play.
Q311:25 (11:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan [97-A.Hutchinson]. PENALTY on DET-21-R.McCreary, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DET 42 - No Play. Play 2547 (11:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan [97-A.Hutchinson]. PENALTY on DET-21-R.McCreary, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DET 42 - No Play.
Q311:20 (11:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DET 22 for 3 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 2581 (11:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DET 22 for 3 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q310:42 (10:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to DET 11 for 11 yards (5-C.Izien). Play 2606 (10:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to DET 11 for 11 yards (5-C.Izien).
Q310:13 (10:13) 28-A.Dillon left tackle to DET 10 for 1 yard (50-S.Gill-Howard; 46-J.Campbell). Play 2631 (10:13) 28-A.Dillon left tackle to DET 10 for 1 yard (50-S.Gill-Howard; 46-J.Campbell).
Q309:37 (9:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2653 (9:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q309:33 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 2679 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q309:33 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 65 yards from CAR 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DET 35. Play 2694 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 65 yards from CAR 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DET 35.
Q309:33 (9:33) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-B.Wright to DET 43 for 8 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 92-L.Hunter). Play 2718 (9:33) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-B.Wright to DET 43 for 8 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 92-L.Hunter).
Q309:00 (9:00) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 46 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke; 95-D.Brown). Play 2748 (9:00) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 46 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke; 95-D.Brown).
Q308:24 (8:24) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs left end to CAR 48 for 6 yards (20-Z.Wheatley; 91-P.Jones). PENALTY on DET-89-B.Wright, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 46 - No Play. Penalty on DET-73-C.Mahogany, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 2770 (8:24) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs left end to CAR 48 for 6 yards (20-Z.Wheatley; 91-P.Jones). PENALTY on DET-89-B.Wright, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 46 - No Play. Penalty on DET-73-C.Mahogany, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q307:53 (7:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 2803 (7:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q307:12 (7:12) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to CAR 8 for 4 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). Play 2828 (7:12) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to CAR 8 for 4 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).
Q306:31 (6:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 0-J.Gibbs. Play 2850 (6:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 0-J.Gibbs.
Q306:28 (6:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.LaPorta (95-D.Brown). Play 2873 (6:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.LaPorta (95-D.Brown).
Q306:24 (6:24) 39-J.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 2896 (6:24) 39-J.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q306:21 39-J.Bates kicks 62 yards from DET 35 to CAR 3. 83-D.Moore to CAR 29 for 26 yards (53-T.Nowaske). PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 25. Penalty on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 2916 39-J.Bates kicks 62 yards from DET 35 to CAR 3. 83-D.Moore to CAR 29 for 26 yards (53-T.Nowaske). PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 25. Penalty on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q306:14 (6:14) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 88-D.Waller to CAR 31 for 16 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 2962 (6:14) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 88-D.Waller to CAR 31 for 16 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q305:41 (5:41) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 33 for 2 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). Play 2987 (5:41) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 33 for 2 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
Q305:10 (5:10) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to DET 46 for 21 yards (46-J.Campbell; 5-C.Izien) [54-A.McNeill]. Play 3009 (5:10) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to DET 46 for 21 yards (46-J.Campbell; 5-C.Izien) [54-A.McNeill].
Q304:28 (4:28) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to DET 45 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson). CAR-57-M.Freeling was injured during the play. Play 3034 (4:28) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to DET 45 for 1 yard (97-A.Hutchinson). CAR-57-M.Freeling was injured during the play.
Q304:04 (4:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 27 for 18 yards (46-J.Campbell; 5-C.Izien). Play 3056 (4:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 27 for 18 yards (46-J.Campbell; 5-C.Izien).
Q303:28 (3:28) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to DET 2 for 25 yards (4-D.Reed). Play 3084 (3:28) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to DET 2 for 25 yards (4-D.Reed).
Q302:52 (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3106 (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q302:47 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 3129 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q302:47 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 56 yards from CAR 35 to DET 9. 25-J.Saylors to DET 25 for 16 yards (34-A.Tyus; 46-J.Kuwatch). Play 3144 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 56 yards from CAR 35 to DET 9. 25-J.Saylors to DET 25 for 16 yards (34-A.Tyus; 46-J.Kuwatch).
Q302:41 (2:41) 0-J.Gibbs right guard to DET 28 for 3 yards (3-P.Umanmielen). Play 3174 (2:41) 0-J.Gibbs right guard to DET 28 for 3 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).
Q302:02 (2:02) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right. Play 3196 (2:02) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right.
Q301:57 (1:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams pushed ob at DET 42 for 14 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 3219 (1:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams pushed ob at DET 42 for 14 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q301:27 (1:27) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 39 for 19 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 3244 (1:27) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 39 for 19 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q300:53 (:53) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to CAR 38 for 1 yard (7-T.Moehrig). Play 3279 (:53) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to CAR 38 for 1 yard (7-T.Moehrig).
Q300:11 (:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 38 - No Play. Play 3301 (:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 38 - No Play.
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3325 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 1-J.Williams. Play 3345 (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 1-J.Williams.
Q414:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown. Play 3368 (14:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown.
Q414:49 (14:49) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DET, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 43 - No Play. Play 3391 (14:49) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DET, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 43 - No Play.
Q414:49 (14:49) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 83-D.Moore. Play 3419 (14:49) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
Q414:43 (14:43) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle pushed ob at CAR 46 for 32 yards (53-T.Nowaske). Penalty on DET-50-S.Gill-Howard, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 3439 (14:43) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle pushed ob at CAR 46 for 32 yards (53-T.Nowaske). Penalty on DET-50-S.Gill-Howard, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q414:18 (14:18) 9-B.Young sacked ob at CAR 45 for -1 yards (5-C.Izien). Play 3489 (14:18) 9-B.Young sacked ob at CAR 45 for -1 yards (5-C.Izien).
Q413:43 (13:43) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to DET 43 for 12 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 3528 (13:43) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to DET 43 for 12 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q413:05 (13:05) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to DET 43 for no gain (54-A.McNeill; 5-C.Izien). Play 3550 (13:05) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to DET 43 for no gain (54-A.McNeill; 5-C.Izien).
Q412:29 (12:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to DET 35 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 3572 (12:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to DET 35 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q411:54 (11:54) 28-A.Dillon left guard to DET 37 for -2 yards (93-T.Lacy). Play 3597 (11:54) 28-A.Dillon left guard to DET 37 for -2 yards (93-T.Lacy).
Q411:14 Timeout #1 by CAR at 11:14. Play 3631 Timeout #1 by CAR at 11:14.
Q411:14 (11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to DET 28 for 9 yards (27-J.Mills). Play 3619 (11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to DET 28 for 9 yards (27-J.Mills).
Q410:34 (10:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to DET 20 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). Play 3651 (10:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to DET 20 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark).
Q409:58 (9:58) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to DET 14 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell). Play 3676 (9:58) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to DET 14 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell).
Q409:18 (9:18) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Waller. Play 3698 (9:18) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Waller.
Q409:12 (9:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Reed (2-E.Rakestraw). Play 3721 (9:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Reed (2-E.Rakestraw).
Q409:08 (9:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Waller [97-A.Hutchinson]. Play 3744 (9:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Waller [97-A.Hutchinson].
Q409:03 (9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 3767 (9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q408:59 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to DET 8. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 24 for 16 yards (48-T.Incoom; 33-T.Dodson). Play 3787 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to DET 8. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 24 for 16 yards (48-T.Incoom; 33-T.Dodson).
Q408:54 (8:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 49 for 25 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). Play 3817 (8:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 49 for 25 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).
Q408:32 (8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 43 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke). CAR-5-J.Phillips was injured during the play. Play 3842 (8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 43 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke). CAR-5-J.Phillips was injured during the play.
Q408:16 (8:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 36 for 7 yards (3-P.Umanmielen). Play 3867 (8:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 36 for 7 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).
Q407:57 (7:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 29 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott). Play 3902 (7:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 29 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q407:41 (7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams to CAR 15 for 14 yards (24-W.Lee). Play 3927 (7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams to CAR 15 for 14 yards (24-W.Lee).
Q407:19 (7:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 87-S.LaPorta. Play 3952 (7:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 87-S.LaPorta.
Q407:16 (7:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown. Play 3975 (7:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown.
Q407:13 (7:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown (97-B.Brown). Play 3998 (7:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown (97-B.Brown).
Q407:10 (7:10) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 15 - No Play. Play 4021 (7:10) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 15 - No Play.
Q407:10 (7:10) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-69-T.Ratledge, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 20 - No Play. Play 4045 (7:10) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-69-T.Ratledge, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 20 - No Play.
Q407:10 Timeout #2 by CAR at 07:10. Play 4081 Timeout #2 by CAR at 07:10.
Q407:10 (7:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 21 for 4 yards. Lateral to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 12 for 9 yards (55-D.Lloyd). Play 4069 (7:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 21 for 4 yards. Lateral to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 12 for 9 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
Q407:04 (7:04) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 15 for 3 yards (5-C.Izien; 46-J.Campbell). Play 4111 (7:04) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 15 for 3 yards (5-C.Izien; 46-J.Campbell).
Q406:22 (6:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan. Play 4140 (6:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan.
Q406:20 (6:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Tremayne. Penalty on CAR-87-B.Tremayne, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. Play 4163 (6:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Tremayne. Penalty on CAR-87-B.Tremayne, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q406:14 (6:14) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DET 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. Penalty on DET-53-T.Nowaske, Running Into the Kicker, declined. Play 4197 (6:14) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DET 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. Penalty on DET-53-T.Nowaske, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
Q406:07 (6:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 38 for 5 yards (55-D.Lloyd). Play 4228 (6:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 38 for 5 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
Q405:47 (5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 48 for 10 yards (24-W.Lee). Play 4253 (5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 48 for 10 yards (24-W.Lee).
Q405:26 (5:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 36 for 16 yards (7-T.Moehrig; 24-W.Lee). Play 4278 (5:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 36 for 16 yards (7-T.Moehrig; 24-W.Lee).
Q405:06 (5:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa (95-D.Brown). Play 4303 (5:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa (95-D.Brown).
Q405:01 (5:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 15 for 21 yards (29-A.Evans; 22-L.Ransom) [3-P.Umanmielen]. Play 4326 (5:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 15 for 21 yards (29-A.Evans; 22-L.Ransom) [3-P.Umanmielen].
Q404:40 (4:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 18-I.TeSlaa. Play 4351 (4:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 18-I.TeSlaa.
Q404:34 (4:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 10 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke). Play 4374 (4:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 10 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q404:10 (4:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Wright. Play 4399 (4:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Wright.
Q404:05 (4:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 3 for 7 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 20-Z.Wheatley). Play 4422 (4:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 3 for 7 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 20-Z.Wheatley).
Q403:42 (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 3 - No Play. Play 4447 (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 3 - No Play.
Q403:42 (3:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4471 (3:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:38 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. Play 4497 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q403:38 39-J.Bates kicks 58 yards from DET 35 to CAR 7. 34-A.Tyus to CAR 36 for 29 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 57-A.Ogbongbemiga). Play 4512 39-J.Bates kicks 58 yards from DET 35 to CAR 7. 34-A.Tyus to CAR 36 for 29 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 57-A.Ogbongbemiga).
Q403:32 (3:32) 30-C.Hubbard right end to CAR 37 for 1 yard (5-C.Izien). Play 4542 (3:32) 30-C.Hubbard right end to CAR 37 for 1 yard (5-C.Izien).
Q403:26 Timeout #1 by DET at 03:26. Play 4576 Timeout #1 by DET at 03:26.
Q403:26 (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 48 for 11 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). PENALTY on CAR-73-S.Forsythe, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 37 - No Play. Play 4564 (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 48 for 11 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). PENALTY on CAR-73-S.Forsythe, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 37 - No Play.
Q403:22 (3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard. Play 4607 (3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard.
Q403:16 (3:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (2-E.Rakestraw) [8-D.Moore]. Play 4630 (3:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (2-E.Rakestraw) [8-D.Moore].
Q403:09 (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 46 for 4 yards (55-D.Barnes). Play 4660 (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 46 for 4 yards (55-D.Barnes).
Q403:04 Timeout #2 by DET at 03:04. Play 4697 Timeout #2 by DET at 03:04.
Q403:04 (3:04) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to DET 46 for no gain (91-T.Williams). Play 4685 (3:04) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to DET 46 for no gain (91-T.Williams).
Q403:00 Timeout #3 by DET at 03:00. Play 4726 Timeout #3 by DET at 03:00.
Q403:00 (3:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DET 46 for 0 yards (98-D.Wonnum). Play 4714 (3:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DET 46 for 0 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q402:12 (2:12) (Punt formation) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DET 46 - No Play. Play 4756 (2:12) (Punt formation) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DET 46 - No Play.
Q402:12 (2:12) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. Play 4784 (2:12) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
Q402:06 (2:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 16 for 3 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 4804 (2:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 16 for 3 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 10 for -6 yards (3-P.Umanmielen). Play 4829 (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 10 for -6 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).
Q401:34 (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta. Play 4856 (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta.
Q401:29 (1:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee). Play 4879 (1:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).
Q401:22 (1:22) 9-B.Young kneels to DET 23 for -1 yards. Play 4904 (1:22) 9-B.Young kneels to DET 23 for -1 yards.
Q400:40 (:40) 9-B.Young kneels to DET 26 for -3 yards. Play 4926 (:40) 9-B.Young kneels to DET 26 for -3 yards.
3
Game seconds remaining 1580
Half seconds remaining 1580
Quarter seconds remaining 680
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CAR 2.11 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1580
Half seconds remaining 1580
Quarter seconds remaining 680
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 15
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1580
Half seconds remaining 1580
Quarter seconds remaining 680
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:39 Penalty · CAR (11:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR-77-L.Fortner, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR -6.39 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 15
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1599
Half seconds remaining 1599
Quarter seconds remaining 699
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 37
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1599
Half seconds remaining 1599
Quarter seconds remaining 699
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CAR -0.74 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 15
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1599
Half seconds remaining 1599
Quarter seconds remaining 699
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 37
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1599
Half seconds remaining 1599
Quarter seconds remaining 699
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q306:24 Kick · DET (6:24) 39-J.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Fourth down decision cost DET 4.68 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.3432638324906618
Yardline 100 8
Elapsed share 0.6433333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1284
Half seconds remaining 1284
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 384
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4631342003313609 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46313/0.41633/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DET 1.71 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q202:23 Penalty · DET (2:23) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa [5-J.Phillips]. PENALTY on CAR-29-A.Evans, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 6 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR -3.71 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1938
Half seconds remaining 138
Quarter seconds remaining 138
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 6
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 6
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1938
Half seconds remaining 138
Quarter seconds remaining 138
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CAR -1.45 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1938
Half seconds remaining 138
Quarter seconds remaining 138
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 6
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 6
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1938
Half seconds remaining 138
Quarter seconds remaining 138
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q113:15 Penalty · DET (13:15) PENALTY on DET-89-B.Wright, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR 2.97 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 15
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3495
Half seconds remaining 1695
Quarter seconds remaining 795
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 34
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3495
Half seconds remaining 1695
Quarter seconds remaining 795
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CAR 0.63 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 15
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3495
Half seconds remaining 1695
Quarter seconds remaining 795
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 34
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3495
Half seconds remaining 1695
Quarter seconds remaining 795
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q407:10 Fourth down · DET (7:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 21 for 4 yards. Lateral to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 12 for 9 yards (55-D.Lloyd). + Fourth down decision cost DET 1.03 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 20
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1329017925429666
Yardline 100 25
Elapsed share 0.8805555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 430
Half seconds remaining 430
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 430
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.05509496362019777 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04476/0.05509/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q402:12 Penalty · CAR (2:12) (Punt formation) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DET 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR -0.95 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 11
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 132
Half seconds remaining 132
Quarter seconds remaining 132
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 6
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 132
Half seconds remaining 132
Quarter seconds remaining 132
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CAR -0.17 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 11
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 132
Half seconds remaining 132
Quarter seconds remaining 132
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 6
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 132
Half seconds remaining 132
Quarter seconds remaining 132
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:49 Penalty · DET (14:49) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DET, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR 0.55 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 19
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 889
Half seconds remaining 889
Quarter seconds remaining 889
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 14
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 889
Half seconds remaining 889
Quarter seconds remaining 889
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CAR 0.17 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 19
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 889
Half seconds remaining 889
Quarter seconds remaining 889
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 14
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 889
Half seconds remaining 889
Quarter seconds remaining 889
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:42 Penalty · DET (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 3 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR 0.49 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 8
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 222
Half seconds remaining 222
Quarter seconds remaining 222
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 3
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 222
Half seconds remaining 222
Quarter seconds remaining 222
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CAR 0.8 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 8
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 222
Half seconds remaining 222
Quarter seconds remaining 222
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 3
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 222
Half seconds remaining 222
Quarter seconds remaining 222
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q407:10 Penalty · DET (7:10) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 15 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR 0.23 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 15
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 430
Half seconds remaining 430
Quarter seconds remaining 430
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 430
Half seconds remaining 430
Quarter seconds remaining 430
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CAR 0.28 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 15
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 430
Half seconds remaining 430
Quarter seconds remaining 430
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 10
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 430
Half seconds remaining 430
Quarter seconds remaining 430
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:49 Fourth down · CAR (7:49) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DET 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -2.787620899566205
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.1197222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3169
Half seconds remaining 1369
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 469
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2741234364166144 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25586/ NA/0.27412 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:52 Fourth down · CAR (8:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark). + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.099866169033267
Yardline 100 42
Elapsed share 0.3522222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2332
Half seconds remaining 532
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 532
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4292476595353694 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42925/0.38312/0.40572 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 96 recorded events Q200:32 Kick · CAR (:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.6310519768362122
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.4911111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1832
Half seconds remaining 32
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 32
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.439269732954379 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.40684/0.43927/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CAR 0.67 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q414:49 Fourth down · DET (14:49) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 83-D.Moore. + Fourth down decision cost DET 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 19
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.2213201849143271
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.7530555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q409:03 Kick · CAR (9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1506811491304296
Yardline 100 14
Elapsed share 0.8491666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q406:14 Fourth down · CAR (6:14) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DET 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. Penalty on DET-53-T.Nowaske, Running Into the Kicker, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line Q404:05 Fourth down · DET (4:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 3 for 7 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 20-Z.Wheatley). + Fourth down decision cost DET 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1082079564082049
Yardline 100 10
Elapsed share 0.9319444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q402:12 Fourth down · CAR (2:12) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.09544014932892102
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.9633333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q112:09 Kick · DET (12:09) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Fourth down decision cost DET 0.22 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -3.72131610274513
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.0475
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q110:07 Penalty · CAR (10:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie to DET 27 for 26 yards (5-C.Izien; 36-C.Clark). PENALTY on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:41 Penalty · DET (7:41) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 21 for 10 yards (7-T.Moehrig). PENALTY on DET-70-J.Scruggs, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:59 Penalty · DET (5:59) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. PENALTY on CAR-38-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 38. Penalty on CAR-27-I.Simmons, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:50 Fourth down · CAR (5:50) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 37 for 9 yards (21-R.McCreary) [93-T.Lacy]. Penalty on DET-95-L.Onwuzurike, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions CAR 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q101:50 Kick · CAR 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Extra point points above expectation CAR -1.84 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q101:06 Penalty · DET (1:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 36 for 11 yards (55-D.Lloyd). PENALTY on CAR-52-T.Gipson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DET 36. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q212:41 Kick · DET (12:41) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Fourth down decision cost DET 1.81 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DET
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.418546778738097
Yardline 100 25
Elapsed share 0.2886111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 28.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam DET
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q210:39 Fourth down · CAR (10:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to DET 48 for no gain (44-M.Rodriguez). Penalty on CAR-57-M.Freeling, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q208:08 Kick · CAR 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Extra point points above expectation CAR -1.84 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q202:14 Kick · DET 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Extra point points above expectation DET 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q201:15 Fumble · CAR (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 29 for 18 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). FUMBLES (2-E.Rakestraw), ball out of bounds at DET 29. + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q200:05 Kick · DET (:05) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Field goal points above expectation DET 1.71 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q309:33 Kick · CAR 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Extra point points above expectation CAR -1.84 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q308:24 Penalty · DET (8:24) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs left end to CAR 48 for 6 yards (20-Z.Wheatley; 91-P.Jones). PENALTY on DET-89-B.Wright, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 46 - No Play. Penalty on DET-73-C.Mahogany, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:21 Penalty · CAR 39-J.Bates kicks 62 yards from DET 35 to CAR 3. 83-D.Moore to CAR 29 for 26 yards (53-T.Nowaske). PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 25. Penalty on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:47 Kick · CAR 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Extra point points above expectation CAR -1.84 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q300:11 Penalty · DET (:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-76-B.Miller, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:43 Fourth down · CAR (14:43) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle pushed ob at CAR 46 for 32 yards (53-T.Nowaske). Penalty on DET-50-S.Gill-Howard, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:14 Fourth down · CAR (11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to DET 28 for 9 yards (27-J.Mills). + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0.13 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team DET
Home team CAR
Away total 28.5
Home total 24
Total line 52.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1742901718698432
Yardline 100 37
Elapsed share 0.8127777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q407:10 Penalty · DET (7:10) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET-69-T.Ratledge, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:20 Fourth down · CAR (6:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Tremayne. Penalty on CAR-87-B.Tremayne, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Charted drops CAR 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q403:38 Kick · DET 39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. + Extra point points above expectation DET 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q403:26 Penalty · CAR (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 48 for 11 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). PENALTY on CAR-73-S.Forsythe, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:29 Fourth down · DET (1:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee). + Fourth down decision cost DET Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q106:39 Execution · DET (6:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Williams. + Charted drops DET 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q212:46 Execution · DET (12:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 0-J.Gibbs (22-L.Ransom). Detroit challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.) + Charted drops DET 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q207:25 Execution · DET (7:25) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 33-S.Vaki. + Charted drops DET 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q111:59 Execution · CAR (11:59) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 41 for 5 yards (46-J.Campbell). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q110:44 Execution · CAR (10:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 47 for 10 yards (4-D.Reed) [8-D.Moore]. + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q109:42 Execution · CAR (9:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 46 for 12 yards (36-C.Clark). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q103:50 Execution · CAR (3:50) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DET 43 for 4 yards (41-J.Rolder). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q103:12 Execution · CAR (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to DET 36 for 7 yards (41-J.Rolder) [97-A.Hutchinson]. + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q102:32 Execution · CAR (2:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 15 for 21 yards (36-C.Clark; 46-J.Campbell). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q211:14 Execution · CAR (11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at DET 48 for 26 yards (2-E.Rakestraw). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q210:14 Execution · CAR (10:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 28-A.Dillon to DET 43 for 5 yards (5-C.Izien). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q208:14 Execution · CAR (8:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Wonnum]. + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q202:07 Execution · CAR (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 41 for 11 yards (91-T.Williams; 36-C.Clark). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Execution · CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 49 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark; 46-J.Campbell). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q314:55 Execution · CAR (14:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at CAR 29 for 5 yards (4-D.Reed). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q313:19 Execution · CAR (13:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 87-B.Tremayne pushed ob at CAR 46 for 11 yards (4-D.Reed). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q312:16 Execution · CAR (12:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-J.Metchie pushed ob at DET 37 for 9 yards (5-C.Izien). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q311:20 Execution · CAR (11:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DET 22 for 3 yards (46-J.Campbell). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q310:42 Execution · CAR (10:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to DET 11 for 11 yards (5-C.Izien). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q309:37 Execution · CAR (9:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q306:14 Execution · CAR (6:14) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 88-D.Waller to CAR 31 for 16 yards (4-D.Reed). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q305:10 Execution · CAR (5:10) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to DET 46 for 21 yards (46-J.Campbell; 5-C.Izien) [54-A.McNeill]. + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q304:04 Execution · CAR (4:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 27 for 18 yards (46-J.Campbell; 5-C.Izien). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q412:29 Execution · CAR (12:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to DET 35 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q410:34 Execution · CAR (10:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to DET 20 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q403:16 Execution · CAR (3:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (2-E.Rakestraw) [8-D.Moore]. + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Contested targets CAR 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions CAR 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Q403:09 Execution · CAR (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 46 for 4 yards (55-D.Barnes). + Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q114:27 Execution · DET (14:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to DET 48 for 6 yards (29-A.Evans). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q113:54 Execution · DET (13:54) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 34 for 18 yards (58-B.Okereke; 7-T.Moehrig). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q107:17 Execution · DET (7:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 11 for 5 yards (29-A.Evans) [55-D.Lloyd]. + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q106:34 Execution · DET (6:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 15 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q101:45 Execution · DET (1:45) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 25 for -2 yards (94-A.Hall). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Execution · DET (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 38 for 7 yards (58-B.Okereke). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q207:21 Execution · DET (7:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 33-S.Vaki to DET 49 for 17 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 26-C.Smith-Wade). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q205:33 Execution · DET (5:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to CAR 38 for 8 yards (29-A.Evans). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q204:53 Execution · DET (4:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 24 for 14 yards (7-T.Moehrig). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q204:08 Execution · DET (4:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at CAR 19 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q203:03 Execution · DET (3:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to CAR 6 for 11 yards (55-D.Lloyd). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q200:21 Execution · DET (:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams to CAR 23 for 49 yards (22-L.Ransom; 29-A.Evans). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions DET 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Q309:33 Execution · DET (9:33) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-B.Wright to DET 43 for 8 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 92-L.Hunter). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q307:53 Execution · DET (7:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q301:57 Execution · DET (1:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams pushed ob at DET 42 for 14 yards (29-A.Evans). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q301:27 Execution · DET (1:27) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 39 for 19 yards (29-A.Evans). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions DET 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q408:54 Execution · DET (8:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 49 for 25 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q408:32 Execution · DET (8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 43 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke). CAR-5-J.Phillips was injured during the play. + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q408:16 Execution · DET (8:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 36 for 7 yards (3-P.Umanmielen). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q407:57 Execution · DET (7:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 29 for 7 yards (21-N.Scott). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q407:41 Execution · DET (7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams to CAR 15 for 14 yards (24-W.Lee). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q406:07 Execution · DET (6:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 38 for 5 yards (55-D.Lloyd). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q405:47 Execution · DET (5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 48 for 10 yards (24-W.Lee). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q405:26 Execution · DET (5:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 36 for 16 yards (7-T.Moehrig; 24-W.Lee). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q405:01 Execution · DET (5:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 15 for 21 yards (29-A.Evans; 22-L.Ransom) [3-P.Umanmielen]. + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q404:34 Execution · DET (4:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 10 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q403:42 Execution · DET (3:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q402:06 Execution · DET (2:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 16 for 3 yards (29-A.Evans). + Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q201:20 Execution · CAR (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 4-T.McMillan [50-S.Gill-Howard]. + Contested targets CAR 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q200:39 Execution · CAR (:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Metchie (21-R.McCreary). + Contested targets CAR 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q409:12 Execution · CAR (9:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Reed (2-E.Rakestraw). + Contested targets CAR 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q409:08 Execution · CAR (9:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Waller [97-A.Hutchinson]. + Contested targets CAR 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q403:22 Execution · CAR (3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard. + Contested targets CAR 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q200:15 Execution · DET (:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.TeSlaa (29-A.Evans). + Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q415:00 Execution · DET (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 1-J.Williams. + Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q414:55 Execution · DET (14:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown. + Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q407:16 Execution · DET (7:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown. + Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
Q401:34 Execution · DET (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta. + Contested targets DET 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 7, 2026, 6:01 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 23fed5943f24cb2d56de90e1263ef2e1ec110cd5ecf770870b999a95e030da29nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 7, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 a14523d0324905f6df07d956c4ffdf95b2c9f693af991744ad013bc2624cad8enflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 7, 2026, 8:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d29962f9efce05c39dd6fc94487061cdb7f888c8ca89ab5ea0c38dfe95fb4b5cModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 593f310051bc9c68f443d0b4ab667e0016ecf87a5bcf833e4b4158cb8da6a758
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 15 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 8:25 AM UTC Version 14 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 2:34 AM UTC Version 13 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 8, 2026, 8:28 PM UTC Version 12 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 8, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC Version 11 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 7, 2026, 8:53 PM UTC Version 10 ↗ Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 3:11 PM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 8:49 AM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC Version 7 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 3:01 AM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 9:34 PM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 1:51 PM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Oct 5, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 7:39 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 5, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 5, 2026, 4:11 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-10
Game seconds remaining 889
Half seconds remaining 889
Quarter seconds remaining 889
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1781524679713798 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16740/0.14915/0.17815 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
10
Game seconds remaining 543
Half seconds remaining 543
Quarter seconds remaining 543
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9171396757342588 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.89897/0.91714/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CAR 0.67 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
52.5
Spread time -0.1248843652700297
Elapsed share 0.8961111111111111
Game seconds remaining 374
Half seconds remaining 374
Quarter seconds remaining 374
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9428983341247346 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94140/ NA/0.94290 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-13
Game seconds remaining 245
Half seconds remaining 245
Quarter seconds remaining 245
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.05500062369500366 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05500/0.04254/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DET 35 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled
6
Game seconds remaining 132
Half seconds remaining 132
Quarter seconds remaining 132
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8200403291561589 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.78082/0.70238/0.82004 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 3429
Half seconds remaining 1629
Quarter seconds remaining 729
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6502597366775806 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65026/0.64804/0.64552 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DET 1.71 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-4
Game seconds remaining 2561
Half seconds remaining 761
Quarter seconds remaining 761
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5417217797651598 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54172/0.52366/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DET 1.71 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining 674
Half seconds remaining 674
Quarter seconds remaining 674
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8465765570202781 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84530/0.84658/0.83733 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets CAR 30 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Contested targets CAR 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 52/52 eligible events modeled