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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: TB by 0.3; actual result: GB by 3.
The 3.3-point difference was matched or exceeded in 559 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 TB minus GB penalty-count difference: -6 versus 0.1 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 183 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 70.77%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: GB by 3.0; actual result: GB by 3. The difference was 0 points.
7,276 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Green Bay Packers by 3
Final margin Green Bay Packers by 3
Difference 0 points
Push — the final margin matched the spread.
7,276 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (100%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score TB by 0.3
Actual final margin GB by 3
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Tampa Bay Buccaneers chance to win during the game 137 preplay estimates across 159 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 22 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence -6.92 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 9 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 01:34 Recorded game event
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Play 3991 (1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams].
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 20.4 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 03:26 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 1579 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden to GB 42 for 11 yards (25-J.Parrish). FUMBLES (25-J.Parrish), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at GB 47. 31-A.Winfield to GB 17 for 30 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 12. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 4.3 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 10:39
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 159 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 159 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the TB 20. PENALTY on GB-94-K.Brooks, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TB 20. Play 40 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the TB 20. PENALTY on GB-94-K.Brooks, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TB 20.
Q115:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 30 for 5 yards (95-D.Wyatt; 56-E.Cooper). Play 57 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 30 for 5 yards (95-D.Wyatt; 56-E.Cooper).
Q114:26 (14:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 33 for 3 yards (95-D.Wyatt; 94-K.Brooks). Play 105 (14:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 33 for 3 yards (95-D.Wyatt; 94-K.Brooks).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 88 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q410:51 Penalty · GB (10:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on TB-34-A.Anzalone, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TB 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB -8.92 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 10
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 644
Half seconds remaining 644
Quarter seconds remaining 644
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 7, 2026, 6:11 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 a14523d0324905f6df07d956c4ffdf95b2c9f693af991744ad013bc2624cad8eThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
559 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 183 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Alex Kemp Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.7 accepted penalties for 106.1 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 47.7 yd per game. Away teams: 6.7 / 58.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Alex Kemp; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Opponent penalties Opponent GB was charged 10 penalties for 68 yards.
Green Bay Packers · Opponent penalties Opponent TB was charged 4 penalties for 17 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 137 model estimates across 159 recorded game entries.
22 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (159 entries) Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence -3.42 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence -3.09 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence -0.73 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence 1.45 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence 0.71 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence 2.97 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence 0.72 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence -8.92 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence -3.02 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence 2.49 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence 0.74 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35289/ NA/0.35494 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 3.13 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63833/0.58734/0.60705 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67708/0.63062/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69518/0.67193/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68294/0.67554/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19033/ NA/0.21040 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72773/ NA/0.76604 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25254/0.21613/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56655/ NA/0.58263 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44169/0.37776/0.41734 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09499/ NA/0.11761 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83560/ NA/0.86502 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16085/0.11784/0.11668 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
TB Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.44 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 53rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
GB Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.44 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 53rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
TB Field goal points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 40 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
GB Field goal points above expectation 1.2 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 40 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
TB Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
GB Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
TB Charted drops 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
GB Charted drops 4 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
TB Interception worthy throws 3 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
GB Interception worthy throws 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
TB QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
GB QB attributed sacks Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Charting tag missing
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
TB Catchable targets 21 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
GB Catchable targets 27 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
TB Contested targets 8 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
GB Contested targets 4 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
TB Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
GB Receiver created receptions 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
TB Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.17 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 64 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.05 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 64 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.62 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.84 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.96 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.38 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 31 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.59 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 31 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 2302 (10:39) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith). Green Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 3.2 percentage points across this play.
Q1 · 10:32 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 266 (10:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 16-B.Melton to TB 13 for 31 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at TB 11. 31-A.Winfield to GB 41 for 48 yards (9-C.Watson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 16-B.Melton.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 2.9 percentage points across this play.
Show 5 more plays Q4 · 01:47 Recorded game event
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Play 3935 (1:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 48 for -6 yards (33-E.Williams). Penalty on TB-15-T.Johnson, Illegal Motion, declined.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 11.2 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 14:56 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 812 (14:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish). PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at TB 3 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on TB awarded GB a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.6 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 04:26 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 3683 (4:26) PENALTY on GB-32-M.Lloyd, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 21 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.5 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 10:51 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 3293 (10:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on TB-34-A.Anzalone, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TB 37 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on TB awarded GB a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.3 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:02 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 4128 (:02) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.4 percentage points across this play.
Q113:49
(13:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 33 for 0 yards (56-E.Cooper).
Play 127
(13:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 33 for 0 yards (56-E.Cooper).
Q113:16 (13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore. Play 147 (13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.
Q113:09 (13:09) 30-C.Brooks left tackle to GB 31 for 2 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 167 (13:09) 30-C.Brooks left tackle to GB 31 for 2 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q112:28 (12:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to GB 48 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield). Play 189 (12:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to GB 48 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q111:45 (11:45) 0-M.Golden left end pushed ob at TB 46 for 6 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 214 (11:45) 0-M.Golden left end pushed ob at TB 46 for 6 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q111:13 (11:13) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to TB 44 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby; 23-T.Smith). Play 244 (11:13) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to TB 44 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby; 23-T.Smith).
Q110:32 (10:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 16-B.Melton to TB 13 for 31 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at TB 11. 31-A.Winfield to GB 41 for 48 yards (9-C.Watson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 16-B.Melton. Play 266 (10:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 16-B.Melton to TB 13 for 31 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at TB 11. 31-A.Winfield to GB 41 for 48 yards (9-C.Watson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 16-B.Melton.
Q110:27 (10:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to TB 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds. Play 317 (10:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to TB 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
Q110:19 (10:19) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at TB 27 for 13 yards (56-E.Cooper). Play 336 (10:19) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at TB 27 for 13 yards (56-E.Cooper).
Q109:49 (9:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 32 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 55-C.McClellan). Play 373 (9:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 32 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 55-C.McClellan).
Q109:13 (9:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 39 for 7 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon). Play 395 (9:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 39 for 7 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon).
Q108:36 (8:36) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end to TB 40 for 1 yard (2-B.Cisse). Play 417 (8:36) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end to TB 40 for 1 yard (2-B.Cisse).
Q107:56 (7:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to GB 49 for 11 yards (2-B.Cisse). Play 439 (7:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to GB 49 for 11 yards (2-B.Cisse).
Q107:15 (7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams [57-B.Cox] at GB 32. 33-E.Williams ran ob at GB 32 for no gain. The interception was assisted by replay. Play 461 (7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams [57-B.Cox] at GB 32. 33-E.Williams ran ob at GB 32 for no gain. The interception was assisted by replay.
Q107:10 (7:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 86-M.Redman to GB 36 for 4 yards (51-D.Walker). Play 503 (7:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 86-M.Redman to GB 36 for 4 yards (51-D.Walker).
Q106:32 (6:32) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brooks left tackle to TB 37 for 27 yards (31-A.Winfield). Play 528 (6:32) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brooks left tackle to TB 37 for 27 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q105:44 (5:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right tackle to TB 33 for 4 yards (98-A.Nelson). Play 550 (5:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right tackle to TB 33 for 4 yards (98-A.Nelson).
Q105:03 (5:03) 32-M.Lloyd right guard to TB 33 for no gain (45-J.Trotter). Play 572 (5:03) 32-M.Lloyd right guard to TB 33 for no gain (45-J.Trotter).
Q104:21 (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 30-C.Brooks to TB 28 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 594 (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 30-C.Brooks to TB 28 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q103:45 (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 18 for 10 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 619 (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 18 for 10 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q103:11 (3:11) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to TB 13 for 5 yards (31-A.Winfield; 45-J.Trotter). Play 649 (3:11) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to TB 13 for 5 yards (31-A.Winfield; 45-J.Trotter).
Q102:33 (2:33) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 10 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 671 (2:33) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 10 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q101:58 (1:58) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to TB 9 for 1 yard (0-Y.Diaby). Play 701 (1:58) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to TB 9 for 1 yard (0-Y.Diaby).
Q101:17 (1:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to TB 6 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 723 (1:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to TB 6 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q100:35 (:35) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brooks up the middle to TB 3 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith; 50-V.Vea). Play 747 (:35) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brooks up the middle to TB 3 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith; 50-V.Vea).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 769 Q215:00 (15:00) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft. Play 789 (15:00) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft.
Q214:56 (14:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish). PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at TB 3 - No Play. Play 812 (14:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish). PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at TB 3 - No Play.
Q214:54 (14:54) 30-C.Brooks up the middle to TB 3 for -2 yards (95-E.Roberts, 45-J.Trotter). Play 846 (14:54) 30-C.Brooks up the middle to TB 3 for -2 yards (95-E.Roberts, 45-J.Trotter).
Q214:19 Timeout #1 by GB at 14:19. Play 880 Timeout #1 by GB at 14:19.
Q214:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to TB 6 for -3 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 868 (14:19) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to TB 6 for -3 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q213:37 (13:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 32-M.Lloyd pushed ob at TB 2 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 897 (13:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 32-M.Lloyd pushed ob at TB 2 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q212:58 Timeout #2 by GB at 12:58. Play 939 Timeout #2 by GB at 12:58.
Q212:58 (12:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 927 (12:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q212:54 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 960 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q212:54 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35. Play 975 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35.
Q212:54 (12:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 35 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness; 56-E.Cooper). Play 999 (12:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 35 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness; 56-E.Cooper).
Q212:20 (12:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton. Play 1021 (12:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton.
Q212:16 (12:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end to TB 38 for 3 yards (56-E.Cooper). Play 1044 (12:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end to TB 38 for 3 yards (56-E.Cooper).
Q211:47 (11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 24, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore. Play 1066 (11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 24, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.
Q211:40 (11:40) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at GB 48 for 24 yards (27-Z.McCollum). PENALTY on GB-9-C.Watson, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play. Play 1086 (11:40) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at GB 48 for 24 yards (27-Z.McCollum). PENALTY on GB-9-C.Watson, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play.
Q211:15 (11:15) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to GB 18 for 4 yards (51-D.Walker). Play 1134 (11:15) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to GB 18 for 4 yards (51-D.Walker).
Q210:50 (10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden. Play 1156 (10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden.
Q210:45 (10:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 87-J.Sturdivant [50-V.Vea]. Play 1179 (10:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 87-J.Sturdivant [50-V.Vea].
Q210:38 (10:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to TB 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-42-M.Orzech. Play 1202 (10:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to TB 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-42-M.Orzech.
Q210:27 (10:27) 1-K.Gainwell right guard to 50 for 4 yards (33-E.Williams; 56-E.Cooper). Play 1222 (10:27) 1-K.Gainwell right guard to 50 for 4 yards (33-E.Williams; 56-E.Cooper).
Q209:48 (9:48) 1-K.Gainwell up the middle to GB 49 for 1 yard (56-E.Cooper; 7-J.Bullard). Play 1251 (9:48) 1-K.Gainwell up the middle to GB 49 for 1 yard (56-E.Cooper; 7-J.Bullard).
Q209:04 (9:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.Hurst pushed ob at GB 28 for 21 yards (29-X.McKinney). Play 1273 (9:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.Hurst pushed ob at GB 28 for 21 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q208:36 (8:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to GB 25 for 3 yards (95-D.Wyatt). Play 1303 (8:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to GB 25 for 3 yards (95-D.Wyatt).
Q208:02 (8:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to GB 19 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin). GB-95-D.Wyatt was injured during the play. Play 1325 (8:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to GB 19 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin). GB-95-D.Wyatt was injured during the play.
Q207:29 (7:29) 44-S.Tucker left guard to GB 19 for no gain (98-J.Hargrave; 99-B.Sorrell). Play 1350 (7:29) 44-S.Tucker left guard to GB 19 for no gain (98-J.Hargrave; 99-B.Sorrell).
Q206:45 (6:45) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to GB 11 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon). Play 1387 (6:45) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to GB 11 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon).
Q206:01 (6:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels left end to GB 2 for 9 yards (56-E.Cooper; 33-E.Williams). Play 1409 (6:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels left end to GB 2 for 9 yards (56-E.Cooper; 33-E.Williams).
Q205:17 (5:17) 44-S.Tucker left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1431 (5:17) 44-S.Tucker left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q205:13 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 1454 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q205:13 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 63 yards from TB 35 to GB 2. 23-S.Moore to GB 26 for 24 yards (84-B.Sharp). Play 1469 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 63 yards from TB 35 to GB 2. 23-S.Moore to GB 26 for 24 yards (84-B.Sharp).
Q205:07 (5:07) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to GB 30 for 4 yards (91-A.Robinson; 97-A.Muhammad). PENALTY on GB-72-L.Tomlinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27. Play 1499 (5:07) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to GB 30 for 4 yards (91-A.Robinson; 97-A.Muhammad). PENALTY on GB-72-L.Tomlinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27.
Q204:51 (4:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to GB 33 for 16 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 1532 (4:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to GB 33 for 16 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q204:09 (4:09) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to GB 31 for -2 yards (56-R.Nunez-Roches). Play 1557 (4:09) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to GB 31 for -2 yards (56-R.Nunez-Roches).
Q203:26 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden to GB 42 for 11 yards (25-J.Parrish). FUMBLES (25-J.Parrish), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at GB 47. 31-A.Winfield to GB 17 for 30 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 12. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish). Play 1579 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden to GB 42 for 11 yards (25-J.Parrish). FUMBLES (25-J.Parrish), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at GB 47. 31-A.Winfield to GB 17 for 30 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 12. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish).
Q203:22 (3:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to TB 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson. Play 1697 (3:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to TB 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.
Q203:15 (3:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 18 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 1724 (3:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 18 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q202:52 (2:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 27 for 9 yards (2-B.Cisse; 7-J.Bullard). Play 1754 (2:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 27 for 9 yards (2-B.Cisse; 7-J.Bullard).
Q202:12 (2:12) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson ran ob at TB 42 for 15 yards (44-Z.Franklin). ** Injury Update: GB-95-D.Wyatt has returned to the game. Play 1779 (2:12) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson ran ob at TB 42 for 15 yards (44-Z.Franklin). ** Injury Update: GB-95-D.Wyatt has returned to the game.
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka. PENALTY on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play. Play 1809 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka. PENALTY on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play.
Q201:57 (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at GB 49 for 5 yards (56-E.Cooper). Play 1853 (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at GB 49 for 5 yards (56-E.Cooper).
Q201:51 (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to GB 45 for 4 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 1880 (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to GB 45 for 4 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q201:13 (1:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton (33-E.Williams). Play 1905 (1:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton (33-E.Williams).
Q201:09 (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to GB 41 for 4 yards (2-B.Cisse). Play 1928 (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to GB 41 for 4 yards (2-B.Cisse).
Q200:46 (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Godwin [98-J.Hargrave]. Play 1953 (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Godwin [98-J.Hargrave].
Q200:41 (:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 19-K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 56-E.Cooper at GB 38. 56-E.Cooper pushed ob at TB 44 for 18 yards (10-J.Daniels). Play 1976 (:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 19-K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 56-E.Cooper at GB 38. 56-E.Cooper pushed ob at TB 44 for 18 yards (10-J.Daniels).
Q200:34 (:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 32-M.Lloyd pushed ob at TB 41 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 2013 (:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 32-M.Lloyd pushed ob at TB 41 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q200:29 (:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 40 for 1 yard (22-K.Scott). Play 2043 (:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 40 for 1 yard (22-K.Scott).
Q200:02 Timeout #3 by GB at 00:02. Play 2080 Timeout #3 by GB at 00:02.
Q200:02 Timeout #1 by TB at 00:02. Play 2087 Timeout #1 by TB at 00:02.
Q200:02 (:02) 28-T.Smack 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 2068 (:02) 28-T.Smack 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2102 Q315:00 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the GB 20. Play 2120 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the GB 20.
Q315:00 (15:00) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 86-M.Redman to GB 45 for 25 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 2137 (15:00) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 86-M.Redman to GB 45 for 25 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q314:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd right end to GB 48 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 2162 (14:19) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd right end to GB 48 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q313:50 (13:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at TB 46 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Play 2184 (13:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at TB 46 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
Q313:25 (13:25) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to TB 41 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 2214 (13:25) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to TB 41 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q312:42 (12:42) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson right guard to TB 36 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 2236 (12:42) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson right guard to TB 36 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q312:04 (12:04) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 5 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield). Play 2258 (12:04) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 5 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q311:20 (11:20) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 2 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea; 91-A.Robinson). Play 2280 (11:20) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 2 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea; 91-A.Robinson).
Q310:39 (10:39) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith). Green Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2302 (10:39) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith). Green Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q310:32 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 2337 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q310:32 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35. Play 2406 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35.
Q310:32 (10:32) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 38 for 3 yards (7-J.Bullard; 55-C.McClellan). Play 2423 (10:32) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 38 for 3 yards (7-J.Bullard; 55-C.McClellan).
Q309:48 (9:48) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 42 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin). Play 2445 (9:48) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 42 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q309:04 (9:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play. Play 2467 (9:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play.
Q308:43 (8:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 29 for -8 yards (29-X.McKinney). GB-56-E.Cooper was injured during the play. Play 2491 (8:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 29 for -8 yards (29-X.McKinney). GB-56-E.Cooper was injured during the play.
Q308:28 (8:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to GB 30, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to GB 38 for 8 yards (19-K.Johnson). Play 2511 (8:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to GB 30, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to GB 38 for 8 yards (19-K.Johnson).
Q308:19 (8:19) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith) [97-A.Muhammad]. PENALTY on GB-72-L.Tomlinson, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at GB 38 - No Play. Play 2547 (8:19) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith) [97-A.Muhammad]. PENALTY on GB-72-L.Tomlinson, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at GB 38 - No Play.
Q308:14 (8:14) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 41 for 13 yards. Play 2581 (8:14) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 41 for 13 yards.
Q307:42 (7:42) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to GB 41 for no gain (27-Z.McCollum). Play 2611 (7:42) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to GB 41 for no gain (27-Z.McCollum).
Q306:58 (6:58) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 41 - No Play. Play 2633 (6:58) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 41 - No Play.
Q306:36 (6:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden. Play 2657 (6:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden.
Q306:30 (6:30) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to TB 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Johnson to TB 16 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard). Play 2680 (6:30) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to TB 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Johnson to TB 16 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard).
Q306:17 (6:17) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at TB 21 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 58-I.McDuffie). ** Injury Update: GB-95-D.Wyatt has returned to the game. Play 2706 (6:17) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at TB 21 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 58-I.McDuffie). ** Injury Update: GB-95-D.Wyatt has returned to the game.
Q305:42 (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 34 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard; 44-Z.Franklin). Play 2740 (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 34 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard; 44-Z.Franklin).
Q305:05 (5:05) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 39 for 5 yards (57-B.Cox; 94-K.Brooks). Play 2768 (5:05) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 39 for 5 yards (57-B.Cox; 94-K.Brooks).
Q304:31 (4:31) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 19-K.Johnson to TB 42 for 3 yards (58-I.McDuffie) [57-B.Cox]. Play 2790 (4:31) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 19-K.Johnson to TB 42 for 3 yards (58-I.McDuffie) [57-B.Cox].
Q303:47 (3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to GB 37 for 21 yards (2-B.Cisse). Play 2815 (3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to GB 37 for 21 yards (2-B.Cisse).
Q303:02 (3:02) 7-B.Irving up the middle to GB 34 for 3 yards (55-C.McClellan). Play 2837 (3:02) 7-B.Irving up the middle to GB 34 for 3 yards (55-C.McClellan).
Q302:23 (2:23) (Shotgun) 15-T.Johnson right end to GB 24 for 10 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon). Play 2859 (2:23) (Shotgun) 15-T.Johnson right end to GB 24 for 10 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon).
Q301:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play. Play 2881 (1:47) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play.
Q301:29 (1:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell to GB 17 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 7-J.Bullard). GB-58-I.McDuffie was injured during the play. Play 2905 (1:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell to GB 17 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 7-J.Bullard). GB-58-I.McDuffie was injured during the play.
Q300:58 (:58) 7-B.Irving right tackle to GB 13 for 4 yards (99-B.Sorrell; 59-T.Hopper). Play 2935 (:58) 7-B.Irving right tackle to GB 13 for 4 yards (99-B.Sorrell; 59-T.Hopper).
Q300:14 (:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to GB 10 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams; 44-Z.Franklin). Play 2957 (:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to GB 10 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams; 44-Z.Franklin).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 2979 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 2-E.Egbuka (25-K.Nixon). Play 2999 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 2-E.Egbuka (25-K.Nixon).
Q414:57 (14:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3027 (14:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q414:49 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 3053 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q414:49 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to GB 4. 23-S.Moore to GB 32 for 28 yards (51-D.Walker; 19-K.Johnson). Play 3071 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to GB 4. 23-S.Moore to GB 32 for 28 yards (51-D.Walker; 19-K.Johnson).
Q414:41 (14:41) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to GB 33 for 1 yard (31-A.Winfield). PENALTY on GB-79-T.Glover, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play. Play 3106 (14:41) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to GB 33 for 1 yard (31-A.Winfield). PENALTY on GB-79-T.Glover, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play.
Q414:13 (14:13) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 18-J.Smith to GB 41 for 19 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 3144 (14:13) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 18-J.Smith to GB 41 for 19 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q413:31 (13:31) PENALTY on GB-85-T.Kraft, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at GB 41 - No Play. Play 3169 (13:31) PENALTY on GB-85-T.Kraft, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at GB 41 - No Play.
Q413:31 (13:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to GB 39 for 2 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 3193 (13:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to GB 39 for 2 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q412:58 (12:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson to TB 43 for 18 yards (31-A.Winfield) [23-T.Smith]. Play 3218 (12:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson to TB 43 for 18 yards (31-A.Winfield) [23-T.Smith].
Q412:15 (12:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 23-S.Moore to TB 45 for -2 yards (52-C.Rozeboom). Play 3243 (12:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 23-S.Moore to TB 45 for -2 yards (52-C.Rozeboom).
Q411:36 (11:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to TB 37 for 8 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Play 3268 (11:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to TB 37 for 8 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
Q410:51 (10:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on TB-34-A.Anzalone, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TB 37 - No Play. Play 3293 (10:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on TB-34-A.Anzalone, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TB 37 - No Play.
Q410:44 (10:44) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 16 for 16 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), ball out of bounds at TB 16. Play 3327 (10:44) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 16 for 16 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), ball out of bounds at TB 16.
Q410:02 (10:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 23-S.Moore. Play 3361 (10:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 23-S.Moore.
Q409:58 (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson to TB 3 for 13 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 3396 (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson to TB 3 for 13 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q409:13 (9:13) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-27-Z.McCollum at TB 4. Play 3426 (9:13) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-27-Z.McCollum at TB 4.
Q409:06 (9:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to TB 6 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon). ** Injury Update: GB-58-I.McDuffie has returned to the game. Play 3464 (9:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to TB 6 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon). ** Injury Update: GB-58-I.McDuffie has returned to the game.
Q408:27 (8:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 7 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness; 51-D.Dennis-Sutton). Play 3496 (8:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 7 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness; 51-D.Dennis-Sutton).
Q407:45 (7:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 15 for 8 yards (90-L.Van Ness). Play 3518 (7:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 15 for 8 yards (90-L.Van Ness).
Q407:17 (7:17) (No Huddle) 1-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie; 7-J.Bullard). Play 3546 (7:17) (No Huddle) 1-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie; 7-J.Bullard).
Q406:35 (6:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to TB 12 for -3 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 3568 (6:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to TB 12 for -3 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q405:51 (5:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels Aborted. 62-G.Barton FUMBLES at TB 6, recovered by TB-10-J.Daniels at TB 1. 10-J.Daniels to TB 1 for no gain (57-B.Cox). Play 3598 (5:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels Aborted. 62-G.Barton FUMBLES at TB 6, recovered by TB-10-J.Daniels at TB 1. 10-J.Daniels to TB 1 for no gain (57-B.Cox).
Q405:09 (5:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to TB 44, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to TB 33 for 11 yards (38-K.Knowles; 29-M.Killebrew). Play 3625 (5:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to TB 44, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to TB 33 for 11 yards (38-K.Knowles; 29-M.Killebrew).
Q404:59 (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 21 for 12 yards (45-J.Trotter). TB-31-A.Winfield was injured during the play. Play 3651 (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 21 for 12 yards (45-J.Trotter). TB-31-A.Winfield was injured during the play.
Q404:26 (4:26) PENALTY on GB-32-M.Lloyd, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 21 - No Play. Play 3683 (4:26) PENALTY on GB-32-M.Lloyd, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 21 - No Play.
Q404:26 (4:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 7. 25-J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (85-T.Kraft). Play 3717 (4:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 7. 25-J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (85-T.Kraft).
Q404:18 (4:18) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 22 for 7 yards (2-B.Cisse). GB-2-B.Cisse was injured during the play. Play 3744 (4:18) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 22 for 7 yards (2-B.Cisse). GB-2-B.Cisse was injured during the play.
Q403:57 (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 29 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 33-E.Williams). Play 3766 (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 29 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 33-E.Williams).
Q403:17 (3:17) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 30 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness). Play 3791 (3:17) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 30 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness).
Q402:36 (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 36 for 6 yards (24-C.Valentine). Play 3813 (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 36 for 6 yards (24-C.Valentine).
Q402:30 Timeout #1 by TB at 02:30. Play 3855 Timeout #1 by TB at 02:30.
Q402:30 (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 41 for 5 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 3843 (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 41 for 5 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q402:00 (2:00) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at GB 46 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 3875 (2:00) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at GB 46 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q401:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left. Play 3912 (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left.
Q401:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 48 for -6 yards (33-E.Williams). Penalty on TB-15-T.Johnson, Illegal Motion, declined. Play 3935 (1:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 48 for -6 yards (33-E.Williams). Penalty on TB-15-T.Johnson, Illegal Motion, declined.
Q401:42 (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to GB 47 for 5 yards (57-B.Cox; 7-J.Bullard). Play 3966 (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to GB 47 for 5 yards (57-B.Cox; 7-J.Bullard).
Q401:34 Timeout #2 by TB at 01:34. Play 4003 Timeout #2 by TB at 01:34.
Q401:34 Timeout #1 by GB at 01:34. Play 4015 Timeout #1 by GB at 01:34.
Q401:34 (1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams]. Play 3991 (1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams].
Q401:25 (1:25) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 43 for -4 yards. Play 4079 (1:25) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 43 for -4 yards.
Q400:44 (:44) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 40 for -3 yards. Play 4101 (:44) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 40 for -3 yards.
Q400:02 (:02) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play. Play 4128 (:02) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.
Q400:02 (:02) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 30 for -5 yards. Play 4152 (:02) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 30 for -5 yards.
4
Game seconds remaining 644
Half seconds remaining 644
Quarter seconds remaining 644
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB -3.02 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 10
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 644
Half seconds remaining 644
Quarter seconds remaining 644
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 4
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 37
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 644
Half seconds remaining 644
Quarter seconds remaining 644
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:56 Penalty · GB (14:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish). PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at TB 3 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB -6.92 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2694
Half seconds remaining 894
Quarter seconds remaining 894
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 3
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2694
Half seconds remaining 894
Quarter seconds remaining 894
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB -3.42 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2694
Half seconds remaining 894
Quarter seconds remaining 894
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 3
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2694
Half seconds remaining 894
Quarter seconds remaining 894
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q110:27 Fourth down · GB (10:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to TB 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost GB 3.13 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -2.21505881310125
Yardline 100 44
Elapsed share 0.07583333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3327
Half seconds remaining 1527
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 627
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6383328389159773 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63833/0.58734/0.60705 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:04 Penalty · TB (9:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB -3.09 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 8
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1444
Half seconds remaining 1444
Quarter seconds remaining 544
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 3
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1444
Half seconds remaining 1444
Quarter seconds remaining 544
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB -0.73 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 8
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1444
Half seconds remaining 1444
Quarter seconds remaining 544
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 3
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1444
Half seconds remaining 1444
Quarter seconds remaining 544
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q413:31 Penalty · GB (13:31) PENALTY on GB-85-T.Kraft, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at GB 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB 2.97 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 5
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 811
Half seconds remaining 811
Quarter seconds remaining 811
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 811
Half seconds remaining 811
Quarter seconds remaining 811
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB 0.72 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 5
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 811
Half seconds remaining 811
Quarter seconds remaining 811
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 811
Half seconds remaining 811
Quarter seconds remaining 811
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q404:26 Penalty · GB (4:26) PENALTY on GB-32-M.Lloyd, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB 2.49 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 15
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 266
Half seconds remaining 266
Quarter seconds remaining 266
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 10
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 266
Half seconds remaining 266
Quarter seconds remaining 266
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB 0.74 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 15
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 266
Half seconds remaining 266
Quarter seconds remaining 266
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 10
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 266
Half seconds remaining 266
Quarter seconds remaining 266
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q306:58 Penalty · GB (6:58) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB 1.45 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 12
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 1318
Half seconds remaining 1318
Quarter seconds remaining 418
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 7
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 1318
Half seconds remaining 1318
Quarter seconds remaining 418
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB 0.71 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 12
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 1318
Half seconds remaining 1318
Quarter seconds remaining 418
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 7
Away team GB
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 1318
Half seconds remaining 1318
Quarter seconds remaining 418
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q113:16 Fourth down · TB (13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -2.672613234073751
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.02888888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3496
Half seconds remaining 1696
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 796
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3549442666186193 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35289/ NA/0.35494 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:45 Fourth down · GB (3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 18 for 10 yards (22-K.Scott). + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.417099658223044
Yardline 100 28
Elapsed share 0.1875
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2925
Half seconds remaining 1125
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 225
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6770839449895697 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67708/0.63062/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q101:17 Fourth down · GB (1:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to TB 6 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter). + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.202217591441314
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.2286111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2777
Half seconds remaining 977
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 77
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6951774339424224 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69518/0.67193/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:47 Fourth down · TB (11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 24, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.890624696963815
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.3036111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2507
Half seconds remaining 707
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 707
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2104043006884466 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19033/ NA/0.21040 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:38 Fourth down · GB (10:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to TB 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-42-M.Orzech. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.8248952895642527
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.3227777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2438
Half seconds remaining 638
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 638
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7660440845485802 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72773/ NA/0.76604 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 76 recorded events Q206:45 Fourth down · TB (6:45) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to GB 11 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon). + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.6367439214802291
Yardline 100 19
Elapsed share 0.3875
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2205
Half seconds remaining 405
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 405
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2525379585864847 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25254/0.21613/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:22 Fourth down · GB (3:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to TB 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.5081679545326093
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.4438888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q201:09 Fourth down · TB (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to GB 41 for 4 yards (2-B.Cisse). + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.438357257506433
Yardline 100 45
Elapsed share 0.4808333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q308:28 Fourth down · TB (8:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to GB 30, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to GB 38 for 8 yards (19-K.Johnson). + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.2626472854460962
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.6088888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q306:30 Fourth down · GB (6:30) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to TB 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Johnson to TB 16 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard). + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.2303732687369041
Yardline 100 64
Elapsed share 0.6416666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q401:34 Fourth down · TB (1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams]. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.06099622713988499
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.9738888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread Q115:00 Penalty · TB 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the TB 20. PENALTY on GB-94-K.Brooks, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TB 20. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:58 Fourth down · GB (12:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team GB
Home team TB
Away total 20.75
Home total 17.75
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.9637308092466014
Yardline 100 2
Elapsed share 0.2838888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q212:54 Kick · GB 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Extra point points above expectation GB 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q211:40 Penalty · GB (11:40) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at GB 48 for 24 yards (27-Z.McCollum). PENALTY on GB-9-C.Watson, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:13 Kick · TB 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Extra point points above expectation TB 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q205:07 Penalty · GB (5:07) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to GB 30 for 4 yards (91-A.Robinson; 97-A.Muhammad). PENALTY on GB-72-L.Tomlinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Penalty · TB (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka. PENALTY on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at TB 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:02 Kick · GB (:02) 28-T.Smack 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Field goal points above expectation GB 1.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:32 Kick · GB 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Extra point points above expectation GB 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q308:19 Penalty · GB (8:19) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith) [97-A.Muhammad]. PENALTY on GB-72-L.Tomlinson, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at GB 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:47 Penalty · TB (1:47) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:49 Kick · TB 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Extra point points above expectation TB 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q414:41 Penalty · GB (14:41) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to GB 33 for 1 yard (31-A.Winfield). PENALTY on GB-79-T.Glover, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:44 Fumble · GB (10:44) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 16 for 16 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), ball out of bounds at TB 16. + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q409:13 Fumble · GB (9:13) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-27-Z.McCollum at TB 4. + Fumble recoveries above expectation TB 0.44 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation GB -0.44 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q405:51 Fumble · TB (5:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels Aborted. 62-G.Barton FUMBLES at TB 6, recovered by TB-10-J.Daniels at TB 1. 10-J.Daniels to TB 1 for no gain (57-B.Cox). + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q405:09 Fourth down · TB (5:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to TB 44, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to TB 33 for 11 yards (38-K.Knowles; 29-M.Killebrew). + Fourth down decision cost TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:47 Fourth down · TB (1:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 48 for -6 yards (33-E.Williams). Penalty on TB-15-T.Johnson, Illegal Motion, declined. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:02 Penalty · GB (:02) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:20 Execution · TB (12:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton. + Charted drops TB 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q110:32 Execution · GB (10:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 16-B.Melton to TB 13 for 31 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at TB 11. 31-A.Winfield to GB 41 for 48 yards (9-C.Watson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 16-B.Melton. + Charted drops GB 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Execution · GB (15:00) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft. + Charted drops GB 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q210:50 Execution · GB (10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden. + Charted drops GB 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q410:02 Execution · GB (10:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 23-S.Moore. + Charted drops GB 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q107:15 Execution · TB (7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams [57-B.Cox] at GB 32. 33-E.Williams ran ob at GB 32 for no gain. The interception was assisted by replay. + Interception worthy throws TB 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets TB 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q200:41 Execution · TB (:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 19-K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 56-E.Cooper at GB 38. 56-E.Cooper pushed ob at TB 44 for 18 yards (10-J.Daniels). + Interception worthy throws TB 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets TB 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q404:26 Execution · GB (4:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 7. 25-J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (85-T.Kraft). + Interception worthy throws GB 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Contested targets GB 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q110:19 Execution · TB (10:19) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at TB 27 for 13 yards (56-E.Cooper). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q209:04 Execution · TB (9:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.Hurst pushed ob at GB 28 for 21 yards (29-X.McKinney). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets TB 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q208:02 Execution · TB (8:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to GB 19 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin). GB-95-D.Wyatt was injured during the play. + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q203:15 Execution · TB (3:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 18 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q202:52 Execution · TB (2:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 27 for 9 yards (2-B.Cisse; 7-J.Bullard). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q202:12 Execution · TB (2:12) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson ran ob at TB 42 for 15 yards (44-Z.Franklin). ** Injury Update: GB-95-D.Wyatt has returned to the game. + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets TB 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions TB 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Q201:51 Execution · TB (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to GB 45 for 4 yards (25-K.Nixon). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q305:42 Execution · TB (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 34 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard; 44-Z.Franklin). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q304:31 Execution · TB (4:31) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 19-K.Johnson to TB 42 for 3 yards (58-I.McDuffie) [57-B.Cox]. + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q301:29 Execution · TB (1:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell to GB 17 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 7-J.Bullard). GB-58-I.McDuffie was injured during the play. + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q415:00 Execution · TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 2-E.Egbuka (25-K.Nixon). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets TB 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q414:57 Execution · TB (14:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q409:06 Execution · TB (9:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to TB 6 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon). ** Injury Update: GB-58-I.McDuffie has returned to the game. + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q407:45 Execution · TB (7:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 15 for 8 yards (90-L.Van Ness). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q406:35 Execution · TB (6:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to TB 12 for -3 yards (25-K.Nixon). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q402:36 Execution · TB (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 36 for 6 yards (24-C.Valentine). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q402:30 Execution · TB (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 41 for 5 yards (33-E.Williams). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q402:00 Execution · TB (2:00) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at GB 46 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q401:42 Execution · TB (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to GB 47 for 5 yards (57-B.Cox; 7-J.Bullard). + Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q112:28 Execution · GB (12:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to GB 48 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q107:10 Execution · GB (7:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 86-M.Redman to GB 36 for 4 yards (51-D.Walker). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q104:21 Execution · GB (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 30-C.Brooks to TB 28 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q102:33 Execution · GB (2:33) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 10 for 3 yards (23-T.Smith). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q213:37 Execution · GB (13:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 32-M.Lloyd pushed ob at TB 2 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q204:51 Execution · GB (4:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to GB 33 for 16 yards (27-Z.McCollum). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q203:26 Execution · GB (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden to GB 42 for 11 yards (25-J.Parrish). FUMBLES (25-J.Parrish), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at GB 47. 31-A.Winfield to GB 17 for 30 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 12. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Contested targets GB 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q200:34 Execution · GB (:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 32-M.Lloyd pushed ob at TB 41 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q200:29 Execution · GB (:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 40 for 1 yard (22-K.Scott). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q315:00 Execution · GB (15:00) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 86-M.Redman to GB 45 for 25 yards (27-Z.McCollum). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q313:50 Execution · GB (13:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at TB 46 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q310:39 Execution · GB (10:39) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith). Green Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q308:14 Execution · GB (8:14) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 41 for 13 yards. + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q414:13 Execution · GB (14:13) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 18-J.Smith to GB 41 for 19 yards (23-T.Smith). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q413:31 Execution · GB (13:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to GB 39 for 2 yards (25-J.Parrish). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q412:58 Execution · GB (12:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson to TB 43 for 18 yards (31-A.Winfield) [23-T.Smith]. + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q412:15 Execution · GB (12:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 23-S.Moore to TB 45 for -2 yards (52-C.Rozeboom). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q411:36 Execution · GB (11:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to TB 37 for 8 yards (34-A.Anzalone). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q409:58 Execution · GB (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson to TB 3 for 13 yards (25-J.Parrish). + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q404:59 Execution · GB (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 21 for 12 yards (45-J.Trotter). TB-31-A.Winfield was injured during the play. + Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q201:13 Execution · TB (1:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton (33-E.Williams). + Contested targets TB 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q200:46 Execution · TB (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Godwin [98-J.Hargrave]. + Contested targets TB 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Q210:45 Execution · GB (10:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 87-J.Sturdivant [50-V.Vea]. + Contested targets GB 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Q306:36 Execution · GB (6:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden. + Contested targets GB 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
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Retrieved Oct 8, 2026, 12:12 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 c6448904a02160160eae89ebb8a0b609417e98d2c32137b09d15e0b5bb6051b0nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
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Retrieved Oct 8, 2026, 7:17 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 93bb2ef4dbb30a479117e5ca067d2329fedc30144cb7097bfcc0764549c96730Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 8b2cdd08459ad812cde4c66fb0cf06eb44b74f6d08ea5a8b2603527cb0426682
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 17 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC Version 16 ↗ Updated source data
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12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
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Oct 6, 2026, 7:54 AM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 8:42 PM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Oct 5, 2026, 12:11 PM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 4, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
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Oct 4, 2026, 9:16 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 8:39 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 2002
Half seconds remaining 202
Quarter seconds remaining 202
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5826329391547903 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56655/ NA/0.58263 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1869
Quarter seconds remaining 69
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4416922994576569 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44169/0.37776/0.41734 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets TB 21 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Contested targets TB 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-10
Game seconds remaining 1408
Half seconds remaining 1408
Quarter seconds remaining 508
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1176142193955482 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09499/ NA/0.11761 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining 1290
Half seconds remaining 1290
Quarter seconds remaining 390
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8650205893719225 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83560/ NA/0.86502 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-3
Quarter seconds remaining 94
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1608509212135709 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16085/0.11784/0.11668 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Interception worthy throws TB 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 2578
Half seconds remaining 778
Quarter seconds remaining 778
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6829429214039496 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68294/0.67554/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets GB 27 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 30/30 eligible events modeled
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 27/27 eligible events modeled