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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Indianapolis Colts by 4.5
Final margin Indianapolis Colts by 17
Difference 12.5 points
Indianapolis Colts covered the spread.
2,415 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (33.2%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin IND by 17
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Alan Eck Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football
In 48 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 10.9 accepted penalties for 92.1 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Washington Commanders · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Indianapolis Colts · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Washington Commanders chance to win during the game 147 preplay estimates across 171 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 24 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
IND Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence -0.96 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 3 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 02:25 Recorded game event
Washington Commanders · Play 3147 (2:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 13 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-6-D.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined.
A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified. Estimated chance to win moved 1.4 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 05:13 Recorded game event
Indianapolis Colts · Play 1618 (5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 25.
Defensive penalty on WAS awarded IND a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 8.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 09:48 Recorded game event
Washington Commanders · Play 3640 (9:48) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short left to 30-A.Ekeler (51-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on IND-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 32 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 171 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 171 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 19-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to IND 4. 20-S.McGowan to IND 32 for 28 yards (6-D.Brown; 35-P.Butler). Play 39 19-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to IND 4. 20-S.McGowan to IND 32 for 28 yards (6-D.Brown; 35-P.Butler).
Q114:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 28-J.Taylor (99-J.Kinlaw). Play 62 (14:54) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 28-J.Taylor (99-J.Kinlaw).
Q114:50 (14:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], touched at IND 24, RECOVERED by WAS-98-O.Oweh at IND 21. Play 85 (14:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], touched at IND 24, RECOVERED by WAS-98-O.Oweh at IND 21.
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 33 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q113:01 Kick · WAS (13:01) 19-D.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 5.56 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -3.94265823422611
Yardline 100 13 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 2, 2026, 5:36 PM UTC
Games 2 3 Wins–losses–ties 1–1–0 2–1–0 Team penalties per game 3.5 / 35.5 yd 5.3 / 43 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.2 / 42.1 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 50 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Alan Eck; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 147 model estimates across 171 recorded game entries.
24 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (171 entries) Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence -0.61 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
IND Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence -0.61 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence -0.74 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 3.42 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 5.64 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence -0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence -0.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
WAS Fourth down decision cost 5.56 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.40324/0.34764/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0.33 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56277/ NA/0.55946 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46599/0.48071/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 1.51 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53107/ NA/0.51601 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 4.06 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46259/ NA/0.42196 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.50305/ NA/0.52748 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49373/0.39339/0.45299 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55380/ NA/0.52871 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0.46 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30254/ NA/0.29796 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65514/0.71317/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 2.74 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80401/0.77663/0.76909 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80045/ NA/0.83197 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0.18 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11781/ NA/0.11598 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02412/ NA/0.01291 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99072/0.99110/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00214/0.00130/0.00129 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00102/0.00082/0.00089 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
WAS Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.44 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 50th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
IND Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.44 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 50th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
WAS Field goal points above expectation 0.15 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
IND Field goal points above expectation 1.82 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
WAS Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
IND Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 77th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
WAS Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 171 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
IND Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 171 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
IND Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.2 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 64 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
IND Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.15 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 64 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
IND Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.46 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
IND Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.67 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.83 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.45 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Defensive penalty on IND awarded WAS a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.8 percentage points across this play.
Q114:38 (14:38) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 18 for 3 yards (98-A.Key; 99-D.Buckner). Play 115
(14:38) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 18 for 3 yards (98-A.Key; 99-D.Buckner).
Q114:17 (14:17) (No Huddle) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 22 for -4 yards (99-D.Buckner). Play 137 (14:17) (No Huddle) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 22 for -4 yards (99-D.Buckner).
Q113:36 (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 3-S.Diggs ran ob at IND 13 for 9 yards. Play 159 (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 3-S.Diggs ran ob at IND 13 for 9 yards.
Q113:01 (13:01) 19-D.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 189 (13:01) 19-D.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q112:57 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to IND 0. 20-S.McGowan to IND 29 for 29 yards (6-D.Brown; 18-T.Owens). Play 211 19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to IND 0. 20-S.McGowan to IND 29 for 29 yards (6-D.Brown; 18-T.Owens).
Q112:53 (12:53) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 32 for 3 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 241 (12:53) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 32 for 3 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q112:14 (12:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor to IND 34 for 2 yards (4-F.Luvu; 52-S.Styles). Play 263 (12:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor to IND 34 for 2 yards (4-F.Luvu; 52-S.Styles).
Q111:28 (11:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to IND 36 for 2 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 288 (11:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to IND 36 for 2 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q110:50 (10:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 19 for 8 yards (58-A.Ajiake). Play 313 (10:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 19 for 8 yards (58-A.Ajiake).
Q110:39 (10:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end to IND 46 for 35 yards (99-D.Buckner). Play 339 (10:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end to IND 46 for 35 yards (99-D.Buckner).
Q109:52 (9:52) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 44 for 2 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 90-G.Stewart). Play 368 (9:52) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 44 for 2 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 90-G.Stewart).
Q109:12 (9:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to IND 42 for 2 yards (57-J.Carlies). Play 390 (9:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to IND 42 for 2 yards (57-J.Carlies).
Q108:28 (8:28) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt pushed ob at IND 7 for 35 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 420 (8:28) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt pushed ob at IND 7 for 35 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q107:57 (7:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [99-D.Buckner]. Play 450 (7:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [99-D.Buckner].
Q107:49 (7:49) 31-K.Allen right guard to IND 5 for 2 yards (25-A.Haulcy). Play 473 (7:49) 31-K.Allen right guard to IND 5 for 2 yards (25-A.Haulcy).
Q107:05 (7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at IND 11 for -6 yards (sack split by 95-A.Adebawore and 97-L.Latu). WAS-8-M.Mariota was injured during the play. Play 495 (7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at IND 11 for -6 yards (sack split by 95-A.Adebawore and 97-L.Latu). WAS-8-M.Mariota was injured during the play.
Q106:24 (6:24) 19-D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 515 (6:24) 19-D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q106:21 19-D.Stevens kicks 63 yards from WAS 35 to IND 2. 20-S.McGowan to IND 22 for 20 yards (18-T.Owens). Play 535 19-D.Stevens kicks 63 yards from WAS 35 to IND 2. 20-S.McGowan to IND 22 for 20 yards (18-T.Owens).
Q106:16 (6:16) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell [94-D.Payne]. Play 565 (6:16) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell [94-D.Payne].
Q106:10 (6:10) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 28-J.Taylor [92-D.Armstrong]. Play 588 (6:10) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 28-J.Taylor [92-D.Armstrong].
Q106:06 (6:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 13-L.Treadwell to IND 24 for 2 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 611 (6:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 13-L.Treadwell to IND 24 for 2 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q105:31 (5:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 14 yards (38-J.Owens). ** Injury Update: WAS-83-J.Lane has returned to the game. PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at WAS 26. Play 639 (5:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 14 yards (38-J.Owens). ** Injury Update: WAS-83-J.Lane has returned to the game. PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at WAS 26.
Q105:20 (5:20) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right guard to WAS 16 for 3 yards (50-B.Boettcher; 91-J.Tuimoloau). Play 705 (5:20) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right guard to WAS 16 for 3 yards (50-B.Boettcher; 91-J.Tuimoloau).
Q104:40 (4:40) 30-A.Ekeler left end pushed ob at WAS 25 for 9 yards (27-J.Walley; 50-B.Boettcher). Play 734 (4:40) 30-A.Ekeler left end pushed ob at WAS 25 for 9 yards (27-J.Walley; 50-B.Boettcher).
Q104:07 (4:07) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 28 for 3 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 761 (4:07) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 28 for 3 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q103:28 (3:28) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Okonkwo (91-J.Tuimoloau). Play 786 (3:28) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Okonkwo (91-J.Tuimoloau).
Q103:24 (3:24) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 33 for 5 yards (27-J.Walley). Play 809 (3:24) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 33 for 5 yards (27-J.Walley).
Q102:43 (2:43) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to IND 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. Play 834 (2:43) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to IND 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
Q102:36 (2:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to IND 24 for 6 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 854 (2:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to IND 24 for 6 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q101:57 (1:57) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 28 for 4 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 883 (1:57) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 28 for 4 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q101:18 (1:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right. Play 905 (1:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right.
Q101:14 (1:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 16-A.Dulin. Play 928 (1:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 16-A.Dulin.
Q101:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to IND 37 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 951 (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to IND 37 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q100:27 (:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-J.Lane. Play 976 (:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
Q100:20 (:20) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WAS 21 for 6 yards (94-J.Tillery; 55-C.Curry). Play 996 (:20) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WAS 21 for 6 yards (94-J.Tillery; 55-C.Curry).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1018 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-13-T.Burks, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 21 - No Play. Play 1038 (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-13-T.Burks, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 21 - No Play.
Q215:00 (15:00) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 18 for 2 yards (55-C.Curry; 94-J.Tillery). Play 1067 (15:00) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 18 for 2 yards (55-C.Curry; 94-J.Tillery).
Q214:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 25 for 7 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 1089 (14:19) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 25 for 7 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q213:36 (13:36) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WAS 27 for 2 yards (94-J.Tillery; 98-A.Key). Play 1114 (13:36) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to WAS 27 for 2 yards (94-J.Tillery; 98-A.Key).
Q212:54 (12:54) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo (25-A.Haulcy) [99-D.Buckner]. Play 1136 (12:54) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo (25-A.Haulcy) [99-D.Buckner].
Q212:48 (12:48) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.Williams [0-C.Bynum]. Play 1159 (12:48) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.Williams [0-C.Bynum].
Q212:45 (12:45) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to IND 39, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-C.Reynolds. Play 1182 (12:45) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to IND 39, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-C.Reynolds.
Q212:36 (12:36) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 20-S.McGowan to IND 46 for 7 yards (45-K.Chaisson; 52-S.Styles). Play 1202 (12:36) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 20-S.McGowan to IND 46 for 7 yards (45-K.Chaisson; 52-S.Styles).
Q211:55 (11:55) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan right guard to IND 48 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles; 45-K.Chaisson). Play 1234 (11:55) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan right guard to IND 48 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles; 45-K.Chaisson).
Q211:11 (11:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 16-A.Dulin to IND 48 for no gain (29-R.Douglas). Play 1256 (11:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 16-A.Dulin to IND 48 for no gain (29-R.Douglas).
Q210:35 Timeout #1 by WAS at 10:35. Play 1295 Timeout #1 by WAS at 10:35.
Q210:35 (10:35) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 44 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 45-K.Chaisson). WAS-2-A.Robertson was injured during the play. Play 1281 (10:35) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 44 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 45-K.Chaisson). WAS-2-A.Robertson was injured during the play.
Q210:08 (10:08) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 20-S.McGowan. Play 1312 (10:08) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 20-S.McGowan.
Q210:03 (10:03) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 16-A.Dulin. ** Injury Update: WAS-2-A.Robertson has returned to the game. Play 1345 (10:03) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 16-A.Dulin. ** Injury Update: WAS-2-A.Robertson has returned to the game.
Q209:59 (9:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at WAS 34. 29-R.Douglas to WAS 37 for 3 yards (16-A.Dulin). Play 1368 (9:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right intended for 16-A.Dulin INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at WAS 34. 29-R.Douglas to WAS 37 for 3 yards (16-A.Dulin).
Q209:53 (9:53) 32-C.Reynolds left tackle to WAS 41 for 4 yards (27-J.Walley; 97-L.Latu). Play 1398 (9:53) 32-C.Reynolds left tackle to WAS 41 for 4 yards (27-J.Walley; 97-L.Latu).
Q209:13 (9:13) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right [97-L.Latu]. Play 1420 (9:13) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right [97-L.Latu].
Q209:09 (9:09) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at WAS 46 for 5 yards (0-C.Bynum). Play 1443 (9:09) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at WAS 46 for 5 yards (0-C.Bynum).
Q208:34 (8:34) 32-C.Reynolds up the middle to WAS 46 for no gain (94-J.Tillery; 57-J.Carlies). Play 1473 (8:34) 32-C.Reynolds up the middle to WAS 46 for no gain (94-J.Tillery; 57-J.Carlies).
Q208:30 (8:30) 28-J.Taylor right end pushed ob at WAS 39 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 1495 (8:30) 28-J.Taylor right end pushed ob at WAS 39 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q207:54 (7:54) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to WAS 38 for 1 yard (52-S.Styles). Play 1529 (7:54) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to WAS 38 for 1 yard (52-S.Styles).
Q207:08 (7:08) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to WAS 26 for 12 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 1551 (7:08) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to WAS 26 for 12 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q206:34 (6:34) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to WAS 24 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles). Play 1576 (6:34) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to WAS 24 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles).
Q205:55 (5:55) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at WAS 30 for -6 yards (sack split by 97-T.Settle and 45-K.Chaisson). Play 1598 (5:55) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at WAS 30 for -6 yards (sack split by 97-T.Settle and 45-K.Chaisson).
Q205:13 (5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 25. Play 1618 (5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 25.
Q204:52 (4:52) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 7 for 6 yards (20-Q.Martin; 39-J.Reaves). Play 1654 (4:52) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 7 for 6 yards (20-Q.Martin; 39-J.Reaves).
Q204:13 (4:13) 20-S.McGowan right end to WAS 5 for 2 yards (39-J.Reaves; 4-F.Luvu). Play 1676 (4:13) 20-S.McGowan right end to WAS 5 for 2 yards (39-J.Reaves; 4-F.Luvu).
Q203:29 (3:29) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1698 (3:29) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q203:23 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 1723 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q203:23 8-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to WAS 5. 83-J.Lane to WAS 40 for 35 yards (50-B.Boettcher). PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 31. Play 1738 8-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to WAS 5. 83-J.Lane to WAS 40 for 35 yards (50-B.Boettcher). PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 31.
Q203:17 (3:17) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 6-D.Brown to WAS 30 for 9 yards (25-A.Haulcy). Play 1775 (3:17) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 6-D.Brown to WAS 30 for 9 yards (25-A.Haulcy).
Q202:39 (2:39) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to WAS 40 for 10 yards (57-J.Carlies). Play 1800 (2:39) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to WAS 40 for 10 yards (57-J.Carlies).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 44 for 4 yards (27-J.Walley). Play 1822 (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 44 for 4 yards (27-J.Walley).
Q201:28 (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 30-A.Ekeler. Play 1854 (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 30-A.Ekeler.
Q201:23 (1:23) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.Williams (7-C.Ward). Play 1877 (1:23) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.Williams (7-C.Ward).
Q201:16 (1:16) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to IND 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. Play 1900 (1:16) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to IND 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
Q201:09 (1:09) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren to IND 28 for 9 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 1920 (1:09) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren to IND 28 for 9 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q200:38 (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 16-A.Dulin pushed ob at WAS 49 for 23 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 1945 (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 16-A.Dulin pushed ob at WAS 49 for 23 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q200:30 (:30) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 16-A.Dulin to WAS 43 for 6 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 1975 (:30) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 16-A.Dulin to WAS 43 for 6 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q200:24 Timeout #1 by IND at 00:24. Play 2012 Timeout #1 by IND at 00:24.
Q200:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 13-L.Treadwell to WAS 34 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 2000 (:24) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 13-L.Treadwell to WAS 34 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q200:19 Timeout #2 by IND at 00:19. Play 2044 Timeout #2 by IND at 00:19.
Q200:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 28-J.Taylor. Play 2032 (:19) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 28-J.Taylor.
Q200:15 (:15) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left. Play 2062 (:15) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left.
Q200:11 (:11) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to WAS 30 for 4 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 2085 (:11) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to WAS 30 for 4 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q200:03 Timeout #3 by IND at 00:03. Play 2119 Timeout #3 by IND at 00:03.
Q200:03 (:03) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 2107 (:03) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2134 Q315:00 8-R.Sanchez kicks 61 yards from IND 35 to WAS 4. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 27 yards (85-A.Ogletree; 58-A.Ajiake). Play 2152 8-R.Sanchez kicks 61 yards from IND 35 to WAS 4. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 27 yards (85-A.Ogletree; 58-A.Ajiake).
Q314:56 (14:56) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 29 for -2 yards (90-G.Stewart, 99-D.Buckner). Play 2188 (14:56) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to WAS 29 for -2 yards (90-G.Stewart, 99-D.Buckner).
Q314:19 (14:19) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short left to 14-A.Williams. IND-27-J.Walley was injured during the play. Play 2210 (14:19) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short left to 14-A.Williams. IND-27-J.Walley was injured during the play.
Q314:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 29 - No Play. Play 2245 (14:17) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 29 - No Play.
Q314:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right intended for 14-A.Williams INTERCEPTED by 57-J.Carlies [95-A.Adebawore] at WAS 27. 57-J.Carlies pushed ob at WAS 20 for 7 yards (72-J.Conerly). Play 2279 (14:17) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right intended for 14-A.Williams INTERCEPTED by 57-J.Carlies [95-A.Adebawore] at WAS 27. 57-J.Carlies pushed ob at WAS 20 for 7 yards (72-J.Conerly).
Q314:09 (14:09) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to WAS 16 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw). Play 2311 (14:09) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to WAS 16 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
Q313:30 (13:30) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right. Play 2333 (13:30) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right.
Q313:28 (13:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 13-L.Treadwell to WAS 5 for 11 yards (2-A.Robertson; 56-K.Medrano). Play 2356 (13:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 13-L.Treadwell to WAS 5 for 11 yards (2-A.Robertson; 56-K.Medrano).
Q312:48 (12:48) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2381 (12:48) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q312:45 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 2404 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q312:45 8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to WAS 3. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 27 yards (55-C.Curry). WAS-83-J.Lane was injured during the play. Play 2424 8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to WAS 3. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 27 yards (55-C.Curry). WAS-83-J.Lane was injured during the play.
Q312:41 (12:41) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.Williams. ** Injury Update: IND-27-J.Walley has returned to the game. Play 2454 (12:41) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.Williams. ** Injury Update: IND-27-J.Walley has returned to the game.
Q312:36 (12:36) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at WAS 41 for 11 yards (57-J.Carlies; 25-A.Haulcy). Play 2487 (12:36) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at WAS 41 for 11 yards (57-J.Carlies; 25-A.Haulcy).
Q312:01 (12:01) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to WAS 48 for 7 yards (57-J.Carlies). Play 2520 (12:01) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to WAS 48 for 7 yards (57-J.Carlies).
Q311:27 (11:27) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to IND 47 for 5 yards (90-G.Stewart; 51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 2542 (11:27) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to IND 47 for 5 yards (90-G.Stewart; 51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q310:47 (10:47) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 13-T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2564 (10:47) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 13-T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q310:39 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 2590 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q310:39 19-D.Stevens kicks 56 yards from WAS 35 to IND 9. 20-S.McGowan to IND 34 for 25 yards (35-P.Butler; 39-J.Reaves). WAS-39-J.Reaves was injured during the play. Play 2605 19-D.Stevens kicks 56 yards from WAS 35 to IND 9. 20-S.McGowan to IND 34 for 25 yards (35-P.Butler; 39-J.Reaves). WAS-39-J.Reaves was injured during the play.
Q310:35 (10:35) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 44 for 10 yards (20-Q.Martin; 97-T.Settle). Play 2635 (10:35) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 44 for 10 yards (20-Q.Martin; 97-T.Settle).
Q309:58 (9:58) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to IND 45 for 1 yard (94-D.Payne; 56-K.Medrano). IND-79-B.Raimann was injured during the play. Play 2665 (9:58) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to IND 45 for 1 yard (94-D.Payne; 56-K.Medrano). IND-79-B.Raimann was injured during the play.
Q309:22 (9:22) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren to WAS 42 for 13 yards (99-J.Kinlaw). Play 2687 (9:22) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren to WAS 42 for 13 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
Q308:38 (8:38) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to WAS 40 for 2 yards (35-P.Butler). Play 2715 (8:38) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to WAS 40 for 2 yards (35-P.Butler).
Q307:58 (7:58) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right. Play 2737 (7:58) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right.
Q307:50 (7:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 80-D.Burks to WAS 34 for 6 yards (24-F.Moreau) [94-D.Payne]. Play 2765 (7:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 80-D.Burks to WAS 34 for 6 yards (24-F.Moreau) [94-D.Payne].
Q307:07 (7:07) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 2790 (7:07) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q307:03 8-R.Sanchez kicks 63 yards from IND 35 to WAS 2. 6-D.Brown to WAS 35 for 33 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 12-N.Westbrook-Ikhine). PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 26. Play 2810 8-R.Sanchez kicks 63 yards from IND 35 to WAS 2. 6-D.Brown to WAS 35 for 33 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 12-N.Westbrook-Ikhine). PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 26.
Q306:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep right to 6-D.Brown to IND 36 for 48 yards (1-A.Gardner). Play 2856 (6:56) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep right to 6-D.Brown to IND 36 for 48 yards (1-A.Gardner).
Q306:18 (6:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 35 for 1 yard (97-L.Latu). Play 2881 (6:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle to IND 35 for 1 yard (97-L.Latu).
Q305:39 (5:39) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (0-C.Bynum). Play 2903 (5:39) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (0-C.Bynum).
Q305:35 (5:35) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis sacked at IND 44 for -9 yards (27-J.Walley). Play 2926 (5:35) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis sacked at IND 44 for -9 yards (27-J.Walley).
Q304:57 (4:57) 10-T.Way punts 33 yards to IND 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 11. Play 2946 (4:57) 10-T.Way punts 33 yards to IND 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 11.
Q304:50 (4:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell to IND 34 for 13 yards (29-R.Douglas). ** Injury Update: IND-79-B.Raimann has returned to the game. Play 2978 (4:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell to IND 34 for 13 yards (29-R.Douglas). ** Injury Update: IND-79-B.Raimann has returned to the game.
Q304:13 (4:13) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren to IND 33 for -1 yards (4-F.Luvu). Play 3003 (4:13) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren to IND 33 for -1 yards (4-F.Luvu).
Q303:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 2-J.Downs (99-J.Kinlaw). Play 3031 (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 2-J.Downs (99-J.Kinlaw).
Q303:25 (3:25) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Burks (2-A.Robertson). Play 3054 (3:25) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Burks (2-A.Robertson).
Q303:19 (3:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-A.Williams. Play 3077 (3:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-A.Williams.
Q303:11 (3:11) 16-A.Kaliakmanis right guard to WAS 13 for -1 yards (94-J.Tillery, 90-G.Stewart). Play 3097 (3:11) 16-A.Kaliakmanis right guard to WAS 13 for -1 yards (94-J.Tillery, 90-G.Stewart).
Q302:31 (2:31) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Diggs. Play 3124 (2:31) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 3-S.Diggs.
Q302:25 (2:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 13 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-6-D.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 3147 (2:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 13 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-6-D.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q302:11 (2:11) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis scrambles right end ran ob at WAS 16 for 8 yards (27-J.Walley). Play 3189 (2:11) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis scrambles right end ran ob at WAS 16 for 8 yards (27-J.Walley).
Q301:43 (1:43) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to IND 48, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. Play 3216 (1:43) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to IND 48, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
Q301:35 (1:35) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to WAS 48 for 4 yards (94-D.Payne). Play 3236 (1:35) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to WAS 48 for 4 yards (94-D.Payne).
Q300:59 (:59) 28-J.Taylor left end to WAS 43 for 5 yards (20-Q.Martin). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 3258 (:59) 28-J.Taylor left end to WAS 43 for 5 yards (20-Q.Martin). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q300:24 (:24) 17-D.Jones up the middle to WAS 42 for 1 yard (99-J.Kinlaw). Play 3280 (:24) 17-D.Jones up the middle to WAS 42 for 1 yard (99-J.Kinlaw).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3304 Q415:00 (15:00) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to WAS 36 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles). ** Injury Update: WAS-39-J.Reaves has returned to the game. Play 3324 (15:00) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to WAS 36 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles). ** Injury Update: WAS-39-J.Reaves has returned to the game.
Q414:21 (14:21) 28-J.Taylor left guard to WAS 24 for 12 yards (48-J.Josephs; 39-J.Reaves). Play 3346 (14:21) 28-J.Taylor left guard to WAS 24 for 12 yards (48-J.Josephs; 39-J.Reaves).
Q413:38 (13:38) 28-J.Taylor right tackle ran ob at WAS 12 for 12 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 3371 (13:38) 28-J.Taylor right tackle ran ob at WAS 12 for 12 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q413:05 (13:05) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to WAS 11 for 1 yard (52-S.Styles). Play 3398 (13:05) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to WAS 11 for 1 yard (52-S.Styles).
Q412:26 (12:26) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 13-L.Treadwell to WAS 4 for 7 yards (2-A.Robertson). ** Injury Update: IND-20-S.McGowan has returned to the game. Play 3420 (12:26) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 13-L.Treadwell to WAS 4 for 7 yards (2-A.Robertson). ** Injury Update: IND-20-S.McGowan has returned to the game.
Q411:44 (11:44) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3450 (11:44) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q411:38 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 3481 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q411:38 8-R.Sanchez kicks 61 yards from IND 35 to WAS 4. 6-D.Brown pushed ob at WAS 25 for 21 yards (50-B.Boettcher). Play 3496 8-R.Sanchez kicks 61 yards from IND 35 to WAS 4. 6-D.Brown pushed ob at WAS 25 for 21 yards (50-B.Boettcher).
Q411:31 (11:31) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short left to 14-A.Williams to WAS 34 for 9 yards (1-A.Gardner). Play 3531 (11:31) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short left to 14-A.Williams to WAS 34 for 9 yards (1-A.Gardner).
Q410:59 (10:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 3-S.Diggs to IND 45 for 21 yards (27-J.Walley). PENALTY on WAS-3-S.Diggs, Offensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 34 - No Play. Play 3556 (10:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 3-S.Diggs to IND 45 for 21 yards (27-J.Walley). PENALTY on WAS-3-S.Diggs, Offensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 34 - No Play.
Q410:31 (10:31) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams to WAS 32 for 7 yards (27-J.Walley). Play 3592 (10:31) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams to WAS 32 for 7 yards (27-J.Walley).
Q409:53 (9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (99-D.Buckner) [97-L.Latu]. Play 3617 (9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (99-D.Buckner) [97-L.Latu].
Q409:48 (9:48) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short left to 30-A.Ekeler (51-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on IND-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 32 - No Play. Play 3640 (9:48) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short left to 30-A.Ekeler (51-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on IND-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 32 - No Play.
Q409:42 (9:42) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Brown (7-C.Ward). Play 3685 (9:42) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Brown (7-C.Ward).
Q409:36 (9:36) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short left to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt to WAS 37 for no gain (27-J.Walley; 51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 3719 (9:36) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short left to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt to WAS 37 for no gain (27-J.Walley; 51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q409:04 (9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis scrambles up the middle to WAS 46 for 9 yards (58-A.Ajiake). Play 3744 (9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis scrambles up the middle to WAS 46 for 9 yards (58-A.Ajiake).
Q408:19 (8:19) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [97-L.Latu]. Play 3766 (8:19) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [97-L.Latu].
Q408:10 (8:10) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 35 for 11 yards (29-R.Douglas; 4-F.Luvu). Play 3789 (8:10) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 35 for 11 yards (29-R.Douglas; 4-F.Luvu).
Q407:26 (7:26) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left. Play 3823 (7:26) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left.
Q407:21 (7:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to WAS 27 for 8 yards (4-F.Luvu; 52-S.Styles). Play 3851 (7:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to WAS 27 for 8 yards (4-F.Luvu; 52-S.Styles).
Q406:36 (6:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to WAS 26 for 1 yard (39-J.Reaves). Play 3876 (6:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to WAS 26 for 1 yard (39-J.Reaves).
Q405:52 Timeout #1 by IND at 05:52. Play 3910 Timeout #1 by IND at 05:52.
Q405:52 (5:52) 3-S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 3898 (5:52) 3-S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q405:48 8-R.Sanchez kicks 63 yards from IND 35 to WAS 2. 6-D.Brown to WAS 39 for 37 yards (55-C.Curry). Play 3934 8-R.Sanchez kicks 63 yards from IND 35 to WAS 2. 6-D.Brown to WAS 39 for 37 yards (55-C.Curry).
Q405:42 (5:42) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short middle to 74-B.Coleman to IND 48 for 13 yards (90-G.Stewart; 50-B.Boettcher). WAS-74-B.Coleman was injured during the play. Play 3957 (5:42) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short middle to 74-B.Coleman to IND 48 for 13 yards (90-G.Stewart; 50-B.Boettcher). WAS-74-B.Coleman was injured during the play.
Q404:56 (4:56) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen left end to 50 for -2 yards (90-G.Stewart, 91-J.Tuimoloau). Play 3982 (4:56) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen left end to 50 for -2 yards (90-G.Stewart, 91-J.Tuimoloau).
Q404:13 (4:13) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Burks (1-A.Gardner). ** Injury Update: WAS-74-B.Coleman has returned to the game. Play 4007 (4:13) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Burks (1-A.Gardner). ** Injury Update: WAS-74-B.Coleman has returned to the game.
Q404:07 (4:07) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to IND 40 for 10 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 4033 (4:07) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 3-S.Diggs to IND 40 for 10 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q403:25 (3:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 6-D.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (7-C.Ward). Play 4058 (3:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 6-D.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (7-C.Ward).
Q402:46 (2:46) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen up the middle to IND 31 for 1 yard (51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 4083 (2:46) (Shotgun) 31-K.Allen up the middle to IND 31 for 1 yard (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q402:02 (2:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 31 - No Play. Play 4105 (2:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 31 - No Play.
Q402:02 (2:02) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep left to 80-C.Yankoff. Play 4129 (2:02) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep left to 80-C.Yankoff.
Q401:57 (1:57) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short left to 3-S.Diggs (29-C.Taylor-Britt) [99-D.Buckner]. Play 4153 (1:57) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short left to 3-S.Diggs (29-C.Taylor-Britt) [99-D.Buckner].
Q401:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (7-C.Ward). Play 4183 (1:53) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (7-C.Ward).
Q401:46 (1:46) 20-S.McGowan up the middle to IND 38 for 2 yards (94-D.Payne). Play 4206 (1:46) 20-S.McGowan up the middle to IND 38 for 2 yards (94-D.Payne).
Q401:02 (1:02) 17-D.Jones kneels to IND 36 for -2 yards. Play 4228 (1:02) 17-D.Jones kneels to IND 36 for -2 yards.
Q400:34 (:34) 17-D.Jones kneels to IND 35 for -1 yards. Play 4250 (:34) 17-D.Jones kneels to IND 35 for -1 yards.
Elapsed share 0.03305555555555555
Game seconds remaining 3481
Half seconds remaining 1681
Quarter seconds remaining 781
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4032414017737252 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.40324/0.34764/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation WAS 0.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q100:27 Fourth down · IND (:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-J.Lane. + Fourth down decision cost IND 4.06 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.705873671465295
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.2425
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2727
Half seconds remaining 927
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 27
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4625908461670649 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46259/ NA/0.42196 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:48 Penalty · WAS (9:48) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short left to 30-A.Ekeler (51-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on IND-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 3.42 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 582
Half seconds remaining 582
Quarter seconds remaining 582
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 10
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 582
Half seconds remaining 582
Quarter seconds remaining 582
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 5.64 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 582
Half seconds remaining 582
Quarter seconds remaining 582
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 10
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 582
Half seconds remaining 582
Quarter seconds remaining 582
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Fourth down decision cost WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:07 Kick · IND (7:07) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Fourth down decision cost IND 2.74 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.360062317344032
Yardline 100 34
Elapsed share 0.6313888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1327
Half seconds remaining 1327
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 427
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8040148737095058 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80401/0.77663/0.76909 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation IND 1.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q102:43 Fourth down · WAS (2:43) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to IND 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 1.51 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.984145827424034
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.2047222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2863
Half seconds remaining 1063
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 163
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5310717385381493 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53107/ NA/0.51601 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Penalty · WAS (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-13-T.Burks, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS -0.96 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 4
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 79
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS -0.61 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 4
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 79
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q314:17 Penalty · WAS (14:17) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS -0.61 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 17
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 76
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 1757
Half seconds remaining 1757
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 12
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 1757
Half seconds remaining 1757
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS -0.74 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 17
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 76
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 1757
Half seconds remaining 1757
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 12
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 1757
Half seconds remaining 1757
Quarter seconds remaining 857
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q201:16 Fourth down · WAS (1:16) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to IND 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0.46 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.6626699943580349
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.4788888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1876
Half seconds remaining 76
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 76
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3025437931505384 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30254/ NA/0.29796 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:50 Fourth down · IND (10:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 19 for 8 yards (58-A.Ajiake). + Fourth down decision cost IND 0.33 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -3.408593077786349
Yardline 100 64
Elapsed share 0.06944444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3350
Half seconds remaining 1550
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 650
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5627682859639574 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56277/ NA/0.55946 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:43 Fourth down · WAS (1:43) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to IND 48, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0.18 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.251206954721206
Yardline 100 84
Elapsed share 0.7213888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1003
Half seconds remaining 1003
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 103
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.11780832974809 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11781/ NA/0.11598 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:02 Penalty · WAS (2:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS -0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 36
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 122
Half seconds remaining 122
Quarter seconds remaining 122
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 31
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 122
Half seconds remaining 122
Quarter seconds remaining 122
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS -0.59 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 36
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 122
Half seconds remaining 122
Quarter seconds remaining 122
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 31
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 122
Half seconds remaining 122
Quarter seconds remaining 122
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q106:24 Kick · WAS (6:24) 19-D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -2.536395715007433
Yardline 100 11
Elapsed share 0.1433333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3084
Half seconds remaining 1284
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 384
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4807128065225137 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46599/0.48071/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation WAS 0.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 21 recorded events Q212:45 Fourth down · WAS (12:45) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to IND 39, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-C.Reynolds. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.42486546220574
Yardline 100 73
Elapsed share 0.2875
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2565
Half seconds remaining 765
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5274804366191637 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.50305/ NA/0.52748 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:35 Fourth down · IND (10:35) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 44 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 45-K.Chaisson). WAS-2-A.Robertson was injured during the play. + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.233225324394412
Yardline 100 52
Elapsed share 0.3236111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko Q208:34 Fourth down · WAS (8:34) 32-C.Reynolds up the middle to WAS 46 for no gain (94-J.Tillery; 57-J.Carlies). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.078087359701391
Yardline 100 54
Elapsed share 0.3572222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q200:03 Kick · IND (:03) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.6110421909578355
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.4991666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q303:19 Fourth down · IND (3:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-A.Williams. + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.2794836481280297
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.6947222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q408:19 Fourth down · WAS (8:19) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [97-L.Latu]. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1434916894386117
Yardline 100 54
Elapsed share 0.8613888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q405:52 Kick · IND (5:52) 3-S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1218686453047665
Yardline 100 26
Elapsed share 0.9022222222222223
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 25.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q403:25 Fourth down · WAS (3:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 6-D.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (7-C.Ward). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1035040201040558
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.9430555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q401:53 Fourth down · WAS (1:53) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (7-C.Ward). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team WAS
Away total 25.5
Home total 21
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.09344642069173713
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.9686111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q114:50 Fumble · IND (14:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], touched at IND 24, RECOVERED by WAS-98-O.Oweh at IND 21. + Fumble recoveries above expectation WAS 0.44 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation IND -0.44 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:31 Penalty · IND (5:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 14 yards (38-J.Owens). ** Injury Update: WAS-83-J.Lane has returned to the game. PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at WAS 26. + Observed ruling consequence IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:13 Penalty · IND (5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 25. + Observed ruling consequence IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:23 Kick · IND 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Extra point points above expectation IND 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q203:23 Penalty · WAS 8-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to WAS 5. 83-J.Lane to WAS 40 for 35 yards (50-B.Boettcher). PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 31. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:45 Kick · IND 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Extra point points above expectation IND 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q310:39 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Extra point points above expectation WAS 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:03 Penalty · WAS 8-R.Sanchez kicks 63 yards from IND 35 to WAS 2. 6-D.Brown to WAS 35 for 33 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 12-N.Westbrook-Ikhine). PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 26. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:57 Penalty · WAS (4:57) 10-T.Way punts 33 yards to IND 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 11. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:25 Penalty · WAS (2:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 13 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-6-D.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:38 Kick · IND 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Extra point points above expectation IND 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q410:59 Penalty · WAS (10:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 3-S.Diggs to IND 45 for 21 yards (27-J.Walley). PENALTY on WAS-3-S.Diggs, Offensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 ed0fa885669b39dec1a47b9c4237105a2cbb2513aa7023c42b6f3793ee3d0d22Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 2ef1ed78d31cc28bad2db80f9559f4d51ecd5e58f3a36a05fb1d3af945d4616f
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Oct 4, 2026, 9:17 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1
Game seconds remaining 2435
Half seconds remaining 635
Quarter seconds remaining 635
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4937251114383923 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49373/0.39339/0.45299 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
6
Game seconds remaining 2314
Half seconds remaining 514
Quarter seconds remaining 514
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5538042895725337 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55380/ NA/0.52871 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1
Game seconds remaining 1803
Quarter seconds remaining 3
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7131744794868097 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65514/0.71317/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation IND 1.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 1099
Half seconds remaining 1099
Quarter seconds remaining 199
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8319658487903233 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80045/ NA/0.83197 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-14
Game seconds remaining 499
Half seconds remaining 499
Quarter seconds remaining 499
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.02412297399074779 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02412/ NA/0.01291 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
14
Game seconds remaining 352
Half seconds remaining 352
Quarter seconds remaining 352
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9911027473163427 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99072/0.99110/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation IND 1.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-17
Game seconds remaining 205
Half seconds remaining 205
Quarter seconds remaining 205
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.002137134943123193 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00214/0.00130/0.00129 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-17
Game seconds remaining 113
Half seconds remaining 113
Quarter seconds remaining 113
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.001019104560632946 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00102/0.00082/0.00089 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled