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FINAL SCORE

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

JAX 22—CIN 17

✓ Analysis completeUpdated Oct 6, 2026, 7:14 PM UTC

GAME RATING

Sus

4 / 5

Fair
Debatable
Hmm
Sus
RIGGED?

The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.

Penalty patterns were this unusual in 6 of 779 comparison games.

How this rating was calculated

Sus (4/5): The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.

Result versus box score

Fair · 1/5

Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: CIN by 0.1; actual result: JAX by 5.

The 5.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 451 of 816 earlier comparison games.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalty pattern

Sus · 4/5

Combined penalty yards: 233 versus 103.1 expected.

The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 6 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.

Adjusted rarity: 2.69%

Result versus spread

Fair · 1/5

Recorded spread: CIN by 2.5; actual result: JAX by 5. The difference was 7.5 points.

3,980 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalties extending one drive

Fair · 1/5

No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.

The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.

The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.

Rating thresholds

Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.

Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.

Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.

Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.

RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.

Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.

These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.

Full methodology ↗

Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Actual team statistics for JAX at CIN
Game statistic	JAXWIN	CINLOSS
Points scored	22	17
Total offensive yards	323	437
Penalties	13	11
Penalty yards	125	108
Turnover margin	+2	-2
Non-offensive touchdowns	0	0

Spread vs. result

Within the usual range

Expected marginCincinnati Bengals by 2.5

Final marginJacksonville Jaguars by 5

Difference7.5 points

Jacksonville Jaguars covered the spread. The underdog won outright.

3,980 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (54.7%).

Where this comparison comes from

The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.

The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.

View the source data ↗

Did the score fit the performance?

Yardage + turnovers

Expected from the box scoreCIN by 0.1

Actual final margin

HOW THE GAME MOVED

Game momentum

Cincinnati Bengals chance to win · vs. Jacksonville JaguarsBefore-play estimates

DIG INTO THE NUMBERSDetailed analysis by categoryOfficiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution.

Impact of officiating decisions

How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.

JAXObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Unsupported state

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:40

JAXObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Fan feedback

Loading fan feedback…

Notable plays 8

These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.

Q4 · 01:01Recorded game event

Cincinnati Bengals · Play 4467

(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 82-M.Tinsley [41-J.Hines-Allen].

Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game.

Estimated chance to win moved 7.3 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play

Q2 · 01:36Recorded game event

Jacksonville Jaguars · Play 1807

(1:36) 33-B.Tuten left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-77-A.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 3 - No Play.

A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified.

Estimated chance to win moved 4.9 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q2 · 07:51Recorded game event

Jacksonville Jaguars · Play 1307

(7:51) 33-B.Tuten right guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-76-E.Cleveland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 39.

A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified.

Estimated chance to win moved 2.0 percentage points across this play.

THE UNDERLYING RECORD

Source plays 177

Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.

Browse all 177 source plays

Q115:00GAMEPlay 1

GAME

Source play 1Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q115:002-E.McPherson kicks 61 yards from CIN 35 to JAX 4. 20-A.Abdullah pushed ob at CIN 49 for 47 yards (2-E.McPherson). PENALTY on JAX-80-Q.Morris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 30.Play 40

2-E.McPherson kicks 61 yards from CIN 35 to JAX 4. 20-A.Abdullah pushed ob at CIN 49 for 47 yards (2-E.McPherson). PENALTY on JAX-80-Q.Morris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 30.

Source play 40Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q114:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 85-B.Strange (53-B.Mafe) [53-B.Mafe]. PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 20 - No Play.Play 79

(14:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 85-B.Strange (53-B.Mafe) [53-B.Mafe]. PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 20 - No Play.

Source play 79CIN preplay win probability: 57.8%Link to source play ↗

Q114:49(14:49) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 25 for 15 yards (37-P.Jules).Play 113

(14:49) 33-B.Tuten left end to JAX 25 for 15 yards (37-P.Jules).

CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 103Optional calculations for individual plays.

Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.

Q413:33Penalty · JAX(13:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 19-J.Cameron. PENALTY on CIN-0-D.Turner, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at JAX 35 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3211Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

-3.58 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: JAX
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 46
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 6
Game seconds remaining: 808
Half seconds remaining: 808
Quarter seconds remaining: 808
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4

ABOUT THIS REPORTData & report historySources, calculation notes and earlier versions.

Automatic analysis

Complete

Updates automatically when source data changes.

Source data

Updated source data

This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.

Data limitations and calculation notes (3)

Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation.
Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent.
Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified.

SHA-256 5703ab3149d9be3ca9ae7e4ffa87411dcc9cccf0f542d3125b08a3e8b5eac391

Were the penalties unusual?

Accepted penalties / yards

Actual penalties compared with league, team, opponent and referee expectations
Comparison	JAX	CIN
Actual	13 / 125 yd	11 / 108 yd
Expected for this matchup	6.6 / 53.3 yd	6.2 / 49.8 yd
League average	6 / 49.5 yd	6 / 49.5 yd
Team’s usual penalties	5.9 / 47.5 yd · 85 games	5 / 38.9 yd · 84 games
Opponent usually draws	6.1 / 50.8 yd · 84 games	6.1 / 51 yd · 85 games

The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 6 of 779 comparison games.

Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.

The referee: Alex Moore

Head official

Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.

In 16 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 16.1 accepted penalties for 127.2 yards across both teams.

Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee	JAX	CIN
Games	2	1
Wins–losses–ties	1–1–0	0–1–0
Team penalties per game	10 / 91.5 yd	11 / 65 yd

Referee comparison details

Home teams: 7.7 / 60.3 yd per game. Away teams: 8.4 / 66.9 yd per game.

These are crew totals in games led by Alex Moore; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.

The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.

Historical coverage & audit method

14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons

Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1

Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385

Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.

View all chart data (177 entries)

Cincinnati Bengals chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Period	Clock	Source play	CIN win chance	Estimate source
Q1	15:00	Play 1 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	15:00	Play 40 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	14:54	Play 79 ↗	57.8%	Regulation model
Q1	14:49	Play 113 ↗	60.3%	Regulation model
Q1	14:08	Play 135 ↗	58.0%	Regulation model
Q1	13:21	Play 157 ↗	60.9%	Regulation model
Q1	13:06	Play 192 ↗	63.1%	Regulation model
Q1	12:27	Play 217 ↗	64.6%	Regulation model
Q1	12:16	Play 255 ↗	59.8%	Regulation model
Q1	11:41	Play 285 ↗	61.3%	Regulation model
Q1	11:00	Play 307 ↗	59.7%	Regulation model
Q1	10:16	Play 332 ↗	63.5%	Regulation model
Q1	09:35	Play 357 ↗	63.1%	Regulation model
Q1	08:52	Play 379 ↗	61.8%	Regulation model
Q1	08:04	Play 404 ↗	58.9%	Regulation model
Q1	07:50	Play 428 ↗	58.4%	Regulation model
Q1	07:43	Play 448 ↗	57.9%	Regulation model
Q1	07:06	Play 477 ↗	59.9%	Regulation model
Q1	06:25	Play 497 ↗	63.2%	Regulation model
Q1	05:41	Play 522 ↗	54.3%	Regulation model
Q1	05:09	Play 549 ↗	55.0%	Regulation model
Q1	04:28	Play 574 ↗	49.1%	Regulation model
Q1	03:44	Play 596 ↗	47.4%	Regulation model
Q1	03:40	Play 642 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	03:40	Play 630 ↗	54.1%	Regulation model
Q1	03:36	Play 660 ↗	57.3%	Regulation model
Q1	03:09	Play 693 ↗	57.3%	Regulation model
Q1	02:23	Play 718 ↗	55.0%	Regulation model
Q1	02:18	Play 738 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	02:13	Play 773 ↗	50.6%	Regulation model
Q1	01:29	Play 795 ↗	49.0%	Regulation model
Q1	01:24	Play 818 ↗	46.4%	Regulation model
Q1	01:10	Play 861 ↗	53.1%	Regulation model
Q1	00:31	Play 891 ↗	53.1%	Regulation model
Q1	00:00	Play 921 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	15:00	Play 941 ↗	58.6%	Regulation model
Q2	14:17	Play 963 ↗	56.3%	Regulation model
Q2	13:36	Play 985 ↗	54.3%	Regulation model
Q2	12:55	Play 1010 ↗	61.7%	Regulation model
Q2	12:11	Play 1030 ↗	57.2%	Regulation model
Q2	11:45	Play 1069 ↗	62.2%	Regulation model
Q2	11:40	Play 1110 ↗	60.6%	Regulation model
Q2	11:00	Play 1135 ↗	60.1%	Regulation model
Q2	10:54	Play 1158 ↗	57.8%	Regulation model
Q2	10:07	Play 1180 ↗	55.9%	Regulation model
Q2	10:03	Play 1200 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	09:58	Play 1230 ↗	56.1%	Regulation model
Q2	09:21	Play 1260 ↗	53.9%	Regulation model
Q2	08:38	Play 1282 ↗	55.8%	Regulation model
Q2	07:51	Play 1307 ↗	50.4%	Regulation model
Q2	07:42	Play 1341 ↗	52.4%	Regulation model
Q2	07:09	Play 1371 ↗	48.2%	Regulation model
Q2	06:26	Play 1393 ↗	48.1%	Regulation model
Q2	05:49	Play 1415 ↗	45.4%	Regulation model
Q2	05:10	Play 1450 ↗	37.9%	Regulation model
Q2	05:05	Play 1484 ↗	43.4%	Regulation model
Q2	04:28	Play 1506 ↗	41.4%	Regulation model
Q2	04:23	Play 1529 ↗	43.4%	Regulation model
Q2	04:19	Play 1552 ↗	48.2%	Regulation model
Q2	04:16	Play 1572 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	04:10	Play 1602 ↗	51.1%	Regulation model
Q2	03:27	Play 1624 ↗	51.3%	Regulation model
Q2	02:46	Play 1649 ↗	52.6%	Regulation model
Q2	02:11	Play 1679 ↗	53.7%	Regulation model
Q2	02:00	Play 1701 ↗	50.1%	Regulation model
Q2	01:49	Play 1740 ↗	33.1%	Regulation model
Q2	01:42	Play 1774 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:42	Play 1762 ↗	28.6%	Regulation model
Q2	01:36	Play 1807 ↗	27.6%	Regulation model
Q2	01:33	Play 1841 ↗	32.5%	Regulation model
Q2	01:27	Play 1875 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:27	Play 1863 ↗	29.5%	Regulation model
Q2	01:23	Play 1896 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:23	Play 1911 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:15	Play 1952 ↗	20.9%	Regulation model
Q2	00:53	Play 1977 ↗	22.0%	Regulation model
Q2	00:30	Play 2002 ↗	22.9%	Regulation model
Q2	00:22	Play 2038 ↗	21.7%	Regulation model
Q2	00:16	Play 2080 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:16	Play 2068 ↗	19.6%	Regulation model
Q2	00:09	Play 2115 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:09	Play 2098 ↗	17.5%	Regulation model
Q2	00:04	Play 2140 ↗	18.9%	Regulation model
Q2	00:00	Play 2165 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	15:00	Play 2185 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	14:55	Play 2218 ↗	23.7%	Regulation model
Q3	14:13	Play 2238 ↗	20.7%	Regulation model
Q3	13:40	Play 2273 ↗	26.2%	Regulation model
Q3	13:03	Play 2295 ↗	24.9%	Regulation model
Q3	12:23	Play 2320 ↗	25.8%	Regulation model
Q3	11:45	Play 2347 ↗	26.5%	Regulation model
Q3	11:39	Play 2370 ↗	24.4%	Regulation model
Q3	11:01	Play 2400 ↗	30.2%	Regulation model
Q3	10:17	Play 2430 ↗	32.1%	Regulation model
Q3	09:38	Play 2455 ↗	31.0%	Regulation model
Q3	09:34	Play 2478 ↗	29.6%	Regulation model
Q3	09:31	Play 2512 ↗	31.3%	Regulation model
Q3	08:48	Play 2544 ↗	27.5%	Regulation model
Q3	08:44	Play 2578 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	08:44	Play 2593 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	08:38	Play 2623 ↗	39.3%	Regulation model
Q3	07:52	Play 2643 ↗	43.5%	Regulation model
Q3	07:10	Play 2695 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	07:10	Play 2683 ↗	40.7%	Regulation model
Q3	06:28	Play 2715 ↗	35.2%	Regulation model
Q3	05:47	Play 2737 ↗	34.6%	Regulation model
Q3	05:03	Play 2762 ↗	30.5%	Regulation model
Q3	04:35	Play 2796 ↗	28.3%	Regulation model
Q3	03:54	Play 2816 ↗	31.4%	Regulation model
Q3	03:11	Play 2838 ↗	32.9%	Regulation model
Q3	03:05	Play 2861 ↗	36.0%	Regulation model
Q3	03:00	Play 2881 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	02:55	Play 2911 ↗	28.9%	Regulation model
Q3	02:51	Play 2934 ↗	26.2%	Regulation model
Q3	02:22	Play 2970 ↗	25.2%	Regulation model
Q3	01:58	Play 3003 ↗	21.8%	Regulation model
Q3	01:26	Play 3028 ↗	31.0%	Regulation model
Q3	00:44	Play 3050 ↗	28.1%	Regulation model
Q3	00:05	Play 3080 ↗	29.2%	Regulation model
Q3	00:00	Play 3105 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	15:00	Play 3125 ↗	35.7%	Regulation model
Q4	14:16	Play 3150 ↗	44.5%	Regulation model
Q4	14:10	Play 3177 ↗	22.6%	Regulation model
Q4	13:33	Play 3211 ↗	17.9%	Regulation model
Q4	13:28	Play 3245 ↗	16.1%	Regulation model
Q4	13:24	Play 3268 ↗	17.6%	Regulation model
Q4	12:41	Play 3290 ↗	19.5%	Regulation model
Q4	11:53	Play 3312 ↗	21.7%	Regulation model
Q4	11:47	Play 3342 ↗	20.8%	Regulation model
Q4	11:38	Play 3360 ↗	20.9%	Regulation model
Q4	11:33	Play 3395 ↗	19.0%	Regulation model
Q4	10:53	Play 3420 ↗	24.9%	Regulation model
Q4	10:49	Play 3443 ↗	21.8%	Regulation model
Q4	10:45	Play 3466 ↗	19.3%	Regulation model
Q4	10:39	Play 3489 ↗	14.8%	Regulation model
Q4	10:29	Play 3515 ↗	18.4%	Regulation model
Q4	09:50	Play 3544 ↗	18.1%	Regulation model
Q4	09:06	Play 3569 ↗	15.8%	Regulation model
Q4	08:26	Play 3591 ↗	13.5%	Regulation model
Q4	08:05	Play 3624 ↗	11.5%	Regulation model
Q4	07:25	Play 3646 ↗	10.5%	Regulation model
Q4	06:42	Play 3671 ↗	8.3%	Regulation model
Q4	06:35	Play 3694 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	06:35	Play 3707 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	06:31	Play 3737 ↗	6.4%	Regulation model
Q4	06:13	Play 3773 ↗	4.5%	Regulation model
Q4	05:47	Play 3798 ↗	3.3%	Regulation model
Q4	05:10	Play 3828 ↗	5.2%	Regulation model
Q4	04:51	Play 3871 ↗	6.9%	Regulation model
Q4	04:23	Play 3896 ↗	7.9%	Regulation model
Q4	04:17	Play 3926 ↗	9.2%	Regulation model
Q4	04:13	Play 3970 ↗	9.0%	Regulation model
Q4	03:51	Play 3998 ↗	8.5%	Regulation model
Q4	03:33	Play 4023 ↗	17.1%	Regulation model
Q4	03:28	Play 4046 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	03:28	Play 4061 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	03:24	Play 4084 ↗	15.7%	Regulation model
Q4	02:42	Play 4106 ↗	18.8%	Regulation model
Q4	02:34	Play 4143 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:34	Play 4131 ↗	19.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:28	Play 4175 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:28	Play 4163 ↗	11.3%	Regulation model
Q4	02:23	Play 4204 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:23	Play 4192 ↗	11.2%	Regulation model
Q4	02:00	Play 4219 ↗	8.1%	Regulation model
Q4	01:56	Play 4251 ↗	9.4%	Regulation model
Q4	01:56	Play 4310 ↗	10.7%	Regulation model
Q4	01:44	Play 4336 ↗	19.3%	Regulation model
Q4	01:38	Play 4366 ↗	26.2%	Regulation model
Q4	01:32	Play 4396 ↗	33.1%	Regulation model
Q4	01:08	Play 4421 ↗	45.6%	Regulation model
Q4	01:05	Play 4444 ↗	41.9%	Regulation model
Q4	01:01	Play 4467 ↗	37.1%	Regulation model
Q4	00:56	Play 4490 ↗	29.8%	Regulation model
Q4	00:50	Play 4520 ↗	3.4%	Regulation model
Q4	00:30	Play 4542 ↗	3.7%	Regulation model
Q4	00:00	Play 4564 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage

Coaching decisions

Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.

JAXFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:217

CINFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:404

CINFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54820/ NA/0.56009
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:428

JAXFourth down decision cost0.88 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46054/0.45175/0.42860
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:718

CINFourth down decision cost0.04 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54279/0.54244/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1180

JAXFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49752/0.52770/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1552

CINFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25803/ NA/0.25632
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2140

JAXFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60858/0.61068/0.60212
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2861

JAXFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3312

JAXFourth down decision cost1.38 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77340/0.74150/0.75964
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3342

CINFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18915/ NA/0.19235
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3489

JAXFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4251

JAXFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82811/ NA/0.83387
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4310

CINFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14346/0.00000/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4490

Kicking

Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.

CINField goal points above expectation0.06 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient tail support

This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.

Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1180

JAXField goal points above expectation1.94 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON71st percentile

Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:718 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1552 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2861

CINExtra point points above expectation0.08 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON45th percentile

Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2578 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4046

JAXExtra point points above expectation0.04 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient tail support

Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1896

Player execution

Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.

CINCharted drops2 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1135 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2347

JAXCharted drops0 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

24 of 24 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

CINInterception worthy throws2 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1701 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3150

JAXInterception worthy throws0 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

24 of 24 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

CINQB attributed sacks0 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

JAXQB attributed sacks0 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

CINCatchable targets41 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

JAXCatchable targets18 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

24 of 24 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:192 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:497 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:549 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:693 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1230 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1282 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1341 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1415 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1863 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2643 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2683 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2737 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2762 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3544 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3646 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4106 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4131 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4219

CINContested targets10 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1135 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2068 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2455 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2544 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:2911 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3003 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3443 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3466 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4396 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4421

JAXContested targets1 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

24 of 24 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:1506

CINReceiver created receptions2 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

54 of 54 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:3003 Event 2026_04_JAX_CIN:4396

JAXReceiver created receptions0 count

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

24 of 24 eligible opportunities modeled.

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model: FTN-charting

Penalty patterns

Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.

JAXPresnap called penalties above expectation0.76 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 2 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

JAXOffensive holding called penalties above expectation3.88 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 5 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

JAXDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.67 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

JAXPass interference called penalties above expectation-0.76 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

CINPresnap called penalties above expectation-0.47 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

CINOffensive holding called penalties above expectation3.83 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 5 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

CINDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.36 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

CINPass interference called penalties above expectation0.6 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Q108:04Penalty · CIN(8:04) (Run formation) PENALTY on CIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 44 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 404Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

-0.47 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: CIN
Ydstogo: 6
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 61
Receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 0
Game seconds remaining: 3184
Half seconds remaining: 1384
Quarter seconds remaining: 484
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 1
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: CIN
Ydstogo: 1
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 56
Receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 0
Game seconds remaining: 3184
Half seconds remaining: 1384
Quarter seconds remaining: 484
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence CIN

-0.89 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: CIN
Ydstogo: 6
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 61
Receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 0
Game seconds remaining: 3184
Half seconds remaining: 1384
Quarter seconds remaining: 484
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 1
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: CIN
Ydstogo: 1
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 56
Receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 0
Game seconds remaining: 3184
Half seconds remaining: 1384
Quarter seconds remaining: 484
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.

Fourth down decision cost CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q204:19Kick · JAX(4:19) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Not reviewedPlay 1552Link to event

Fourth down decision cost JAX

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: JAX
Ydstogo: 10
Outdoors: 1
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Away total: 24.5
Home total: 27
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 2.5
Spread time: 0.4511607872127863
Yardline 100: 10
Elapsed share: 0.4280555555555556
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -2.5
Original posteam: JAX
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 0
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 2059
Half seconds remaining: 259
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 259
Defteam timeouts remaining: 2
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.5276972577704933

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49752/0.52770/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation JAX

1.94 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q200:04Fourth down · CIN(:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 45 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis).

Not reviewedPlay 2140Link to event

Fourth down decision cost CIN

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: CIN
Ydstogo: 5
Outdoors: 1
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Away total: 24.5
Home total: 27
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 2.5
Spread time: 0.3398452800288009
Yardline 100: 54
Elapsed share: 0.4988888888888889
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 27
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 2.5
Original posteam: CIN
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: -10
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1804
Half seconds remaining: 4
Away timeouts remaining: 1
Home timeouts remaining: 0
Quarter seconds remaining: 4
Defteam timeouts remaining: 1
Posteam timeouts remaining: 0

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.2580343755141093

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25803/ NA/0.25632
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q303:05Kick · JAX(3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Not reviewedPlay 2861Link to event

Fourth down decision cost JAX

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: JAX
Ydstogo: 10
Outdoors: 1
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Away total: 24.5
Home total: 27
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 2.5
Spread time: 0.1528720911840137
Yardline 100: 36
Elapsed share: 0.6986111111111111
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -2.5
Original posteam: JAX
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 3
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1085
Half seconds remaining: 1085
Away timeouts remaining: 2
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 185
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.610675018327886

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60858/0.61068/0.60212
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation JAX

1.94 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q400:56Fourth down · CIN(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

Not reviewedPlay 4490Link to event

Fourth down decision cost CIN

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: CIN
Ydstogo: 10
Outdoors: 1
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Away total: 24.5
Home total: 27
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 2.5
Spread time: 0.04872870264062201
Yardline 100: 21
Elapsed share: 0.9844444444444445
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 27
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 2.5
Original posteam: CIN
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -5
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 56
Half seconds remaining: 56
Away timeouts remaining: 2
Home timeouts remaining: 0
Quarter seconds remaining: 56
Defteam timeouts remaining: 2
Posteam timeouts remaining: 0

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.14346162022601

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14346/0.00000/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Show the remaining 91 recorded events

Q114:54Penalty · JAX(14:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 85-B.Strange (53-B.Mafe) [53-B.Mafe]. PENALTY on JAX-75-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 20 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 79Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q112:27Penalty · JAX(12:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

Not reviewedPlay 217Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q103:44Penalty · JAX(3:44) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 33-B.Tuten. PENALTY on JAX-87-N.Boerkircher, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 36 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 596Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q103:36Penalty · JAX(3:36) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to CIN 35 for 11 yards (49-B.Carter). PENALTY on JAX, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 46 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 660Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q102:23Kick · JAX(2:23) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Not reviewedPlay 718Link to event

Fourth down decision cost JAX

0.88 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: JAX
Ydstogo: 6
Outdoors: 1
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Away total: 24.5
Home total: 27
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 2.5
Spread time: 1.078077778647549
Yardline 100: 37
Elapsed share: 0.2102777777777778
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 24.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -2.5
Original posteam: JAX
Home receive 2h ko: 1

Q101:24Penalty · CIN(1:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX 34. 12-T.Hunter to CIN 36 for 30 yards (30-C.Brown). PENALTY on JAX-91-A.Armstead, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 26 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 818Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q212:11Penalty · CIN(12:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to JAX 29 for 4 yards (4-J.Jones). CIN-1-J.Chase was injured during the play. PENALTY on JAX-4-J.Jones, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 29.

Not reviewedPlay 1030Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q211:45Penalty · CIN(11:45) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-63-D.Fairchild, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 12.

Not reviewedPlay 1069Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q210:07Kick · CIN(10:07) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

Not reviewedPlay 1180Link to event

Fourth down decision cost CIN

0.04 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: CIN
Ydstogo: 6
Outdoors: 1
Away team: JAX
Home team: CIN
Away total: 24.5
Home total: 27
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 2.5
Spread time: 0.6641383294742543
Yardline 100: 10
Elapsed share: 0.3313888888888889
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 27
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 2.5
Original posteam: CIN
Home receive 2h ko: 1

Q207:51Penalty · JAX(7:51) 33-B.Tuten right guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-76-E.Cleveland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 39.

Not reviewedPlay 1307Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q205:10Penalty · JAX(5:10) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on JAX-73-R.Hainsey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 3 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1450Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q201:42Penalty · JAX(1:42) 33-B.Tuten left end pushed ob at CIN 7 for 2 yards (44-D.Knight; 0-D.Turner). PENALTY on CIN-99-M.Murphy, Face Mask, 4 yards, enforced at CIN 7.

Not reviewedPlay 1762Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q201:36Penalty · JAX(1:36) 33-B.Tuten left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-77-A.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 3 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1807Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q201:23Kick · JAX39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Not reviewedPlay 1896Link to event

Extra point points above expectation JAX

0.04 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q201:23Penalty · CIN39-C.Little kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to CIN 2. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 40 for 38 yards (6-A.Johnson; 5-L.Allen). PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 30.

Not reviewedPlay 1911Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q200:30Penalty · CIN(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to 50 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 25-R.Lane). PENALTY on CIN-63-D.Fairchild, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 41 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2002Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q312:23Fumble · CIN(12:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end to JAX 44 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun). FUMBLES (23-F.Oluokun), ball out of bounds at JAX 44.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q408:26Penalty · JAX(8:26) 33-B.Tuten right end to JAX 38 for 3 yards (44-D.Knight). PENALTY on CIN-53-B.Mafe, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 38.

Not reviewedPlay 3591Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q406:31Penalty · CIN(6:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to CIN 31 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun) [91-A.Armstead]. PENALTY on CIN-63-D.Fairchild, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 29 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3737Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q405:10Penalty · CIN(5:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 38 for 1 yard (51-V.Miller). PENALTY on JAX-44-T.Walker, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 38.

Not reviewedPlay 3828Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q404:17Fourth down · CIN(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at JAX 12 for 11 yards. Penalty on JAX-57-Bry.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.

Not reviewedPlay 3926Link to event

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q403:28Kick · CIN2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

Not reviewedPlay 4046Link to event

Extra point points above expectation CIN

0.08 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q401:56Penalty · JAX(1:56) (Run formation) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 48 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 4251Link to event

Observed ruling consequence JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost JAX

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q211:00Execution · CIN(11:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 82-M.Tinsley (12-T.Hunter).

Not reviewedPlay 1135Link to event

Charted drops CIN

2 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Contested targets CIN

10 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Q311:45Execution · CIN(11:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 34-S.Perine.

Not reviewedPlay 2347Link to event

Charted drops CIN

2 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q202:00Execution · CIN(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 81-D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis [41-J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. 2-J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for 45 yards (30-C.Brown).

Not reviewedPlay 1701Link to event

Interception worthy throws CIN

2 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q414:16Execution · CIN(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 82-M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun at JAX 10. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (82-M.Tinsley).

Not reviewedPlay 3150Link to event

Interception worthy throws CIN

2 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q112:16Execution · CIN(12:16) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at CIN 24 for 14 yards (29-E.Murray) [44-T.Walker].

Not reviewedPlay 255Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q111:00Execution · CIN(11:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 35 for 16 yards (29-E.Murray).

Not reviewedPlay 307Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q110:16Execution · CIN(10:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to CIN 40 for 5 yards (4-J.Jones) [52-D.Hamilton].

Not reviewedPlay 332Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q108:52Execution · CIN(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 44 for 2 yards (12-T.Hunter).

Not reviewedPlay 379Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q101:10Execution · CIN(1:10) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at CIN 47 for 6 yards (12-T.Hunter).

Not reviewedPlay 861Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q100:31Execution · CIN(:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to JAX 43 for 10 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).

Not reviewedPlay 891Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q213:36Execution · CIN(13:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to JAX 22 for 17 yards (4-J.Jones) [23-F.Oluokun].

Not reviewedPlay 985Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q211:40Execution · CIN(11:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 13 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis; 51-V.Miller).

Not reviewedPlay 1110Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q203:27Execution · CIN(3:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 49 for 10 yards (12-T.Hunter).

Not reviewedPlay 1624Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q202:46Execution · CIN(2:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 81-D.Meyers ran ob at JAX 46 for 3 yards (12-T.Hunter; 2-J.Lewis).

Not reviewedPlay 1649Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q201:15Execution · CIN(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 27 for 7 yards (2-J.Lewis).

Not reviewedPlay 1952Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q200:53Execution · CIN(:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 41 for 14 yards (25-R.Lane).

Not reviewedPlay 1977Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q200:22Execution · CIN(:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 39 for 8 yards (4-J.Jones).

Not reviewedPlay 2038Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q200:09Execution · CIN(:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 46 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

Not reviewedPlay 2098Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q314:13Execution · CIN(14:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at CIN 46 for 16 yards (4-J.Jones).

Not reviewedPlay 2238Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q313:03Execution · CIN(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 46 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

Not reviewedPlay 2295Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q311:39Execution · CIN(11:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at JAX 30 for 14 yards (29-E.Murray).

Not reviewedPlay 2370Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q311:01Execution · CIN(11:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to JAX 23 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

Not reviewedPlay 2400Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q310:17Execution · CIN(10:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 18 for 5 yards (25-R.Lane).

Not reviewedPlay 2430Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q308:48Execution · CIN(8:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-29-E.Murray was injured during the play.

Not reviewedPlay 2544Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Contested targets CIN

10 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q302:51Execution · CIN(2:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 30 for 4 yards (92-D.Striggow).

Not reviewedPlay 2934Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q301:58Execution · CIN(1:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 49 for 29 yards (25-R.Lane).

Not reviewedPlay 3003Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q300:05Execution · CIN(:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 36 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane) [51-V.Miller].

Not reviewedPlay 3080Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q415:00Execution · CIN(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins to JAX 10 for 26 yards (6-A.Johnson; 25-R.Lane).

Not reviewedPlay 3125Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q411:33Execution · CIN(11:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 38 for 18 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).

Not reviewedPlay 3395Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q406:13Execution · CIN(6:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to CIN 18 for -1 yards (4-J.Jones).

Not reviewedPlay 3773Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q405:47Execution · CIN(5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins ran ob at CIN 37 for 19 yards. CIN-5-T.Higgins was injured during the play.

Not reviewedPlay 3798Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q404:51Execution · CIN(4:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to JAX 30 for 17 yards (6-A.Johnson). ** Injury Update: CIN-5-T.Higgins has returned to the game.

Not reviewedPlay 3871Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q404:23Execution · CIN(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at JAX 23 for 7 yards (25-R.Lane).

Not reviewedPlay 3896Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q404:13Execution · CIN(4:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to JAX 10 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

Not reviewedPlay 3970Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q403:51Execution · CIN(3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 82-M.Tinsley to JAX 1 for 9 yards (4-J.Jones).

Not reviewedPlay 3998Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q401:44Execution · CIN(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at CIN 46 for 29 yards.

Not reviewedPlay 4336Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q401:38Execution · CIN(1:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki ran ob at JAX 36 for 18 yards [41-J.Hines-Allen].

Not reviewedPlay 4366Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q401:32Execution · CIN(1:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 21 for 15 yards (50-B.Combs).

Not reviewedPlay 4396Link to event

Catchable targets CIN

41 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q106:25Execution · JAX(6:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 34 for 23 yards (22-R.Yeast).

Not reviewedPlay 497Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q105:09Execution · JAX(5:09) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 3-J.Meyers to CIN 41 for 22 yards (49-B.Carter).

Not reviewedPlay 549Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q103:09Execution · JAX(3:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to CIN 37 for 14 yards (27-J.Battle).

Not reviewedPlay 693Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q209:58Execution · JAX(9:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to JAX 39 for 12 yards (37-P.Jules).

Not reviewedPlay 1230Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q208:38Execution · JAX(8:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 87-N.Boerkircher to CIN 44 for 15 yards (49-B.Carter; 42-O.Burks).

Not reviewedPlay 1282Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q207:42Execution · JAX(7:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Bri.Thomas pushed ob at CIN 39 for 10 yards (0-D.Turner).

Not reviewedPlay 1341Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q205:49Execution · JAX(5:49) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 19-J.Cameron pushed ob at CIN 3 for 29 yards (42-O.Burks).

Not reviewedPlay 1415Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q201:27Execution · JAX(1:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Bri.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Not reviewedPlay 1863Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q307:52Execution · JAX(7:52) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 33-B.Tuten pushed ob at JAX 29 for 9 yards (49-B.Carter).

Not reviewedPlay 2643Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q307:10Execution · JAX(7:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to JAX 36 for 7 yards (44-D.Knight) [93-J.Allen].

Not reviewedPlay 2683Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q305:47Execution · JAX(5:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 19-J.Cameron to CIN 47 for 13 yards (38-D.Ivey; 37-P.Jules).

Not reviewedPlay 2737Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q409:50Execution · JAX(9:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten to JAX 33 for 9 yards (20-T.Davis).

Not reviewedPlay 3544Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q407:25Execution · JAX(7:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to CIN 25 for 16 yards (38-D.Ivey).

Not reviewedPlay 3646Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q402:42Execution · JAX(2:42) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange to JAX 30 for 4 yards (49-B.Carter).

Not reviewedPlay 4106Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q402:34Execution · JAX(2:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 85-B.Strange to JAX 45 for 15 yards (22-R.Yeast).

Not reviewedPlay 4131Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q402:00Execution · JAX(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington to CIN 16 for 39 yards (23-D.Hill). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington ran ob at CIN 48 for 7 yards (0-D.Turner).

Not reviewedPlay 4219Link to event

Catchable targets JAX

18 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Q200:16Execution · CIN(:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 5-T.Higgins (4-J.Jones).

Not reviewedPlay 2068Link to event

Contested targets CIN

10 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q309:38Execution · CIN(9:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Higgins (4-J.Jones) [44-T.Walker].

Not reviewedPlay 2455Link to event

Contested targets CIN

10 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q302:55Execution · CIN(2:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (25-R.Lane).

Not reviewedPlay 2911Link to event

Contested targets CIN

10 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q410:49Execution · CIN(10:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 5-T.Higgins (4-J.Jones).

Not reviewedPlay 3443Link to event

Contested targets CIN

10 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q410:45Execution · CIN(10:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 82-M.Tinsley (12-T.Hunter) [47-D.Gardeck].

Not reviewedPlay 3466Link to event

Contested targets CIN

10 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q401:08Execution · CIN(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Meyers.

Not reviewedPlay 4421Link to event

Contested targets CIN

10 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 54/54 eligible events modeled

Q204:28Execution · JAX(4:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 11-P.Washington (49-B.Carter) [97-D.Lawrence].

Not reviewedPlay 1506Link to event

Contested targets JAX

1 count Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA.
Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors.
FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply.

Model FTN-charting · 24/24 eligible events modeled

Model versions and technical record

nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.

nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.

fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1

Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons

Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.

game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5

Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only

Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.

spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1

Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons

Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.

game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1

Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.

Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.

Analysis input hash: c3409068e19195b43b69b9073644ca33aa93d70017e31c0a68c2475d59497a94

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Version 1 ↗
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Oct 4, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Sus

Result versus box score

Penalty pattern

Result versus spread

Penalties extending one drive

Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Spread vs. result

Did the score fit the performance?

Game momentum

Impact of officiating decisions

Fan feedback

Cincinnati Bengals · Play 4467

Jacksonville Jaguars · Play 1807

Jacksonville Jaguars · Play 1307

Source plays 177

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Actual state

Supported alternative

Automatic analysis

Source data

Data sources

football-zebras

sharp-football

nflverse-team-stats

Were the penalties unusual?

The referee: Alex Moore

How the result took shape

Winning-profile context

Coaching decisions

Fumble recoveries

Kicking

Player execution

Penalty patterns

Cincinnati Bengals · Play 1069

Jacksonville Jaguars · Play 4219

Cincinnati Bengals · Play 818

Cincinnati Bengals · Play 3828

Jacksonville Jaguars · Play 4251

Assumptions

Ruling expected points consequence CIN

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Ruling expected points consequence CIN

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost JAX

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Observed ruling consequence CIN

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Ruling expected points consequence CIN

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost CIN

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost CIN

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost JAX

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Field goal points above expectation JAX

Actual state

Supported alternative