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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: KC by 5.0; actual result: KC by 3.
The 2.0-point difference was matched or exceeded in 654 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 LV minus KC penalty-yard difference: -29 versus -1.6 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 602 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: KC by 4.5; actual result: KC by 3. The difference was 1.5 points.
6,552 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Kansas City Chiefs by 4.5
Final margin Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Difference 1.5 points
Las Vegas Raiders covered the spread.
6,552 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (90%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score KC by 5
Actual final margin KC by 3
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Las Vegas Raiders chance to win during the game 161 preplay estimates across 191 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 30 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
KC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 6 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 00:43 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 4419 (:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-C.White to LV 23 for 7 yards (5-M.Delane). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 82-C.White (5-M.Delane, 95-C.Jones).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 4.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:35 Recorded game event
Kansas City Chiefs · Play 3768 (3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 34.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:10 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 4580 (:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Nwankpa (56-G.Karlaftis) [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC 36. 29-X.Nwankpa to KC 39 for 3 yards (82-C.White). Penalty on LV-2-A.Jeanty, Illegal Shift, declined.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 191 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 191 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to KC 4. 10-E.Johnson to KC 29 for 25 yards (50-S.Olubi). Play 39 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to KC 4. 10-E.Johnson to KC 29 for 25 yards (50-S.Olubi).
Q114:52 (14:52) 9-K.Walker right tackle to KC 33 for 4 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 5-E.Stokes). Play 62 (14:52) 9-K.Walker right tackle to KC 33 for 4 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 5-E.Stokes).
Q114:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left guard to KC 35 for 2 yards (97-T.Hemingway). Play 84 (14:17) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left guard to KC 35 for 2 yards (97-T.Hemingway).
Q113:39 (13:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 38 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q406:28 Penalty · LV (6:28) PENALTY on LV-34-C.Heyward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV -4.76 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 6
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 34
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 388
Half seconds remaining 388
Quarter seconds remaining 388
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1cc443d2167df1241f78d8ad97cdbb61ccc44dbec518ec76e09f6fcf2b418aafThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
654 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 602 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Brad Rogers Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 104.4 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.2 / 50.6 yd per game. Away teams: 6.4 / 53.8 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Brad Rogers; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Las Vegas Raiders · Opponent penalties Opponent KC was charged 8 penalties for 59 yards.
Kansas City Chiefs · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Kansas City Chiefs · Opponent penalties Opponent LV was charged 6 penalties for 30 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 161 model estimates across 191 recorded game entries.
30 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (191 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence 0.39 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence -0.39 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence -4.76 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence -0.88 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
KC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence 2.35 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence 1.26 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
KC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 1.67 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.61645/ NA/0.63320 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65756/0.58061/0.62583 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33738/ NA/0.37339 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 3.05 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64706/0.61775/0.61656 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39338/ NA/0.37741 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41822/0.43293/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55580/0.57727/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56608/0.54614/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39611/ NA/0.44488 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43852/ NA/0.49186 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 2.23 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46904/ NA/0.44672 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24238/0.24999/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0.45 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63497/ NA/0.63049 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43009/0.43297/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
KC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81735/ NA/0.83106 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03833/ NA/0.00290 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
LV Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.26 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 9th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
KC Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.26 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 9th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
LV Field goal points above expectation 1.53 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
KC Field goal points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LV Extra point points above expectation 0.03 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
KC Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 54th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
LV Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 191 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
KC Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 191 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
KC Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.13 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
KC Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.19 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
KC Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.33 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 53 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
KC Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.78 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 53 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.45 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
85 of 85 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 85 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.36 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
85 of 85 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 85 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 35 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 35 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 12.1 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 05:30 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 1411 (5:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 9-J.Nailor. LV-9-J.Nailor was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on KC awarded LV a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.8 percentage points across this play.
Show 2 more plays Q2 · 00:22 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 1988 (:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on KC awarded LV a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.7 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:05 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 4324 (1:05) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 9 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.8 percentage points across this play.
Play 106
(13:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy.
Q113:34 (13:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 64 yards to LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson pushed ob at LV 16 for 15 yards (47-B.VanSumeren). PENALTY on KC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play. Play 129 (13:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 64 yards to LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson pushed ob at LV 16 for 15 yards (47-B.VanSumeren). PENALTY on KC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.
Q113:21 (13:21) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end to KC 42 for 12 yards (34-C.Heyward). Play 166 (13:21) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end to KC 42 for 12 yards (34-C.Heyward).
Q112:39 (12:39) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 45 for 3 yards (99-T.Booker). Play 192 (12:39) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 45 for 3 yards (99-T.Booker).
Q112:09 (12:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to 50 for 5 yards (35-H.Masses; 98-M.Crosby). Play 214 (12:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to 50 for 5 yards (35-H.Masses; 98-M.Crosby).
Q111:29 (11:29) (Shotgun) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 92-K.Tonga up the middle to 50 for no gain (94-F.Fatukasi; 17-N.Dean). Play 239 (11:29) (Shotgun) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 92-K.Tonga up the middle to 50 for no gain (94-F.Fatukasi; 17-N.Dean).
Q110:48 (10:48) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). Play 265 (10:48) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean).
Q110:26 (10:26) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to KC 40 for 10 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). Play 292 (10:26) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to KC 40 for 10 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
Q109:43 (9:43) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 81-D.Young to KC 31 for 9 yards (5-M.Delane). Play 324 (9:43) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 81-D.Young to KC 31 for 9 yards (5-M.Delane).
Q108:58 (8:58) (Shotgun) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to KC 27 for 4 yards (5-M.Delane; 32-N.Bolton). Play 349 (8:58) (Shotgun) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to KC 27 for 4 yards (5-M.Delane; 32-N.Bolton).
Q108:18 (8:18) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 80-I.Thomas for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 373 (8:18) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 80-I.Thomas for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q108:10 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 394 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q108:10 14-M.Gay kicks 58 yards from LV 35 to KC 7. 10-E.Johnson to KC 31 for 24 yards (93-P.Johnson; 55-C.Lindenberg). Play 409 14-M.Gay kicks 58 yards from LV 35 to KC 7. 10-E.Johnson to KC 31 for 24 yards (93-P.Johnson; 55-C.Lindenberg).
Q108:04 (8:04) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice ran ob at KC 38 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes). PENALTY on LV-94-F.Fatukasi, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 31 - No Play. Play 439 (8:04) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice ran ob at KC 38 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes). PENALTY on LV-94-F.Fatukasi, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 31 - No Play.
Q107:34 (7:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 2-T.Thornton to KC 40 for 4 yards (5-E.Stokes; 11-J.Chinn). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 480 (7:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 2-T.Thornton to KC 40 for 4 yards (5-E.Stokes; 11-J.Chinn). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q106:45 (6:45) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 40 for no gain (17-N.Dean). Play 505 (6:45) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 40 for no gain (17-N.Dean).
Q106:01 (6:01) 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to KC 41 for 1 yard (7-Q.Walker). Play 529 (6:01) 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to KC 41 for 1 yard (7-Q.Walker).
Q105:23 (5:23) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray to LV 48 for 11 yards (7-Q.Walker) [98-M.Crosby]. Play 553 (5:23) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray to LV 48 for 11 yards (7-Q.Walker) [98-M.Crosby].
Q104:46 (4:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Royals (5-E.Stokes). Play 578 (4:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Royals (5-E.Stokes).
Q104:40 (4:40) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 13-C.Allen. Play 601 (4:40) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 13-C.Allen.
Q104:33 (4:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 1-X.Worthy to LV 7 for 41 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 624 (4:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 1-X.Worthy to LV 7 for 41 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q103:49 (3:49) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 2 for 5 yards (99-T.Booker). Play 649 (3:49) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 2 for 5 yards (99-T.Booker).
Q103:10 (3:10) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left guard to LV 2 for no gain (7-Q.Walker; 11-J.Chinn). Play 671 (3:10) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left guard to LV 2 for no gain (7-Q.Walker; 11-J.Chinn).
Q102:26 (2:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 2-T.Thornton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 693 (2:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 2-T.Thornton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q102:23 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 718 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q102:23 7-H.Butker kicks 57 yards from KC 35 to LV 8. 23-D.Laube to LV 31 for 23 yards (88-J.Briningstool). Play 733 7-H.Butker kicks 57 yards from KC 35 to LV 8. 23-D.Laube to LV 31 for 23 yards (88-J.Briningstool).
Q102:17 (2:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to LV 46 for 15 yards (27-C.Conner; 32-N.Bolton). Play 768 (2:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to LV 46 for 15 yards (27-C.Conner; 32-N.Bolton).
Q101:35 (1:35) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LV 47 for 1 yard (97-A.Gillotte). Play 793 (1:35) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LV 47 for 1 yard (97-A.Gillotte).
Q100:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty left end to LV 47 for no gain (5-M.Delane). Play 815 (:52) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty left end to LV 47 for no gain (5-M.Delane).
Q100:12 (:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Bowers. Play 837 (:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Bowers.
Q100:08 (:08) (Punt formation) PENALTY on LV, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play. Play 860 (:08) (Punt formation) PENALTY on LV, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
Q100:08 (:08) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 14, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. Play 888 (:08) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 14, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 907 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left [98-M.Crosby]. Play 927 (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left [98-M.Crosby].
Q214:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left end pushed ob at KC 25 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 950 (14:54) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left end pushed ob at KC 25 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q214:23 (14:23) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to KC 27 for 2 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 972 (14:23) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to KC 27 for 2 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q213:40 (13:40) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left tackle to KC 48 for 21 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 35-H.Masses). Play 997 (13:40) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left tackle to KC 48 for 21 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 35-H.Masses).
Q212:51 (12:51) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-E.Johnson to LV 49 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker) [99-T.Booker]. PENALTY on KC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 48 - No Play. Play 1019 (12:51) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-E.Johnson to LV 49 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker) [99-T.Booker]. PENALTY on KC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 48 - No Play.
Q212:21 (12:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 2-T.Thornton (35-H.Masses). Play 1055 (12:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 2-T.Thornton (35-H.Masses).
Q212:17 (12:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to LV 45 for 12 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 1078 (12:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to LV 45 for 12 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q211:34 (11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Royals [97-T.Hemingway]. Play 1103 (11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Royals [97-T.Hemingway].
Q211:28 (11:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 33 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-E.Johnson. Play 1126 (11:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 33 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-E.Johnson.
Q211:19 (11:19) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to LV 30 for 18 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Play 1146 (11:19) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to LV 30 for 18 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
Q210:40 (10:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers. Play 1178 (10:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers.
Q210:37 (10:37) 4-M.Washington right guard to LV 32 for 2 yards (21-J.Hicks). Play 1201 (10:37) 4-M.Washington right guard to LV 32 for 2 yards (21-J.Hicks).
Q209:54 (9:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to LV 39 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed). Play 1223 (9:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to LV 39 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q209:21 (9:21) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 40 for 1 yard (8-K.Fulton; 43-J.Cochrane). Play 1248 (9:21) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 40 for 1 yard (8-K.Fulton; 43-J.Cochrane).
Q208:46 (8:46) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 4-M.Washington. Play 1272 (8:46) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 4-M.Washington.
Q208:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at KC 46 for 14 yards (17-A.Gilman; 23-D.Tranquill). Play 1295 (8:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at KC 46 for 14 yards (17-A.Gilman; 23-D.Tranquill).
Q208:07 (8:07) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to KC 38 for 8 yards (8-K.Fulton; 17-A.Gilman). Play 1320 (8:07) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to KC 38 for 8 yards (8-K.Fulton; 17-A.Gilman).
Q207:24 (7:24) 4-M.Washington left end pushed ob at KC 30 for 8 yards (17-A.Gilman). Play 1342 (7:24) 4-M.Washington left end pushed ob at KC 30 for 8 yards (17-A.Gilman).
Q206:56 (6:56) (No Huddle) 34-C.Heyward left end to KC 35 for -5 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Play 1364 (6:56) (No Huddle) 34-C.Heyward left end to KC 35 for -5 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
Q206:12 (6:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to KC 28 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed). Play 1386 (6:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to KC 28 for 7 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q205:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 9-J.Nailor. LV-9-J.Nailor was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play. Play 1411 (5:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 9-J.Nailor. LV-9-J.Nailor was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
Q205:26 (5:26) 4-M.Washington right end to KC 19 for -5 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). Play 1448 (5:26) 4-M.Washington right end to KC 19 for -5 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
Q204:49 (4:49) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to KC 17 for 2 yards (56-G.Karlaftis; 99-P.Woods). Play 1470 (4:49) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to KC 17 for 2 yards (56-G.Karlaftis; 99-P.Woods).
Q204:09 (4:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to KC 13 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton). Play 1495 (4:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to KC 13 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton).
Q203:23 (3:23) 14-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 1520 (3:23) 14-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q203:19 14-M.Gay kicks 56 yards from LV 35 to KC 9. 81-N.Remigio to KC 20 for 11 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). Play 1540 14-M.Gay kicks 56 yards from LV 35 to KC 9. 81-N.Remigio to KC 20 for 11 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).
Q203:15 (3:15) 9-K.Walker left end to KC 26 for 6 yards (31-T.Stukes; 35-H.Masses). Play 1570 (3:15) 9-K.Walker left end to KC 26 for 6 yards (31-T.Stukes; 35-H.Masses).
Q202:39 (2:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 36 for 10 yards (35-H.Masses; 17-N.Dean). Play 1592 (2:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 36 for 10 yards (35-H.Masses; 17-N.Dean).
Q202:04 (2:04) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 43 for 7 yards (69-A.Butler; 7-Q.Walker). Play 1617 (2:04) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 43 for 7 yards (69-A.Butler; 7-Q.Walker).
Q201:58 (1:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 87-T.Kelce. Play 1639 (1:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 87-T.Kelce.
Q201:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy pushed ob at LV 47 for 10 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 1669 (1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy pushed ob at LV 47 for 10 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q201:50 (1:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton pushed ob at LV 5 for 42 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 1694 (1:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton pushed ob at LV 5 for 42 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q201:42 (1:42) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 3 for 2 yards (99-T.Booker). Play 1719 (1:42) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 3 for 2 yards (99-T.Booker).
Q201:36 Timeout #1 by LV at 01:36. Play 1753 Timeout #1 by LV at 01:36.
Q201:36 (1:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at LV 10 for -7 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 1741 (1:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at LV 10 for -7 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q201:30 Timeout #2 by LV at 01:30. Play 1780 Timeout #2 by LV at 01:30.
Q201:30 Timeout #1 by KC at 01:30. Play 1787 Timeout #1 by KC at 01:30.
Q201:30 (1:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 83-N.Gray [98-M.Crosby]. Play 1768 (1:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 83-N.Gray [98-M.Crosby].
Q201:26 (1:26) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 1805 (1:26) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q201:22 7-H.Butker kicks 62 yards from KC 35 to LV 3. 81-D.Young to LV 29 for 26 yards (29-X.Nwankpa). Play 1825 7-H.Butker kicks 62 yards from KC 35 to LV 3. 81-D.Young to LV 29 for 26 yards (29-X.Nwankpa).
Q201:17 (1:17) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 30 for 1 yard (32-N.Bolton; 56-G.Karlaftis). ** Injury Update: LV-9-J.Nailor has returned to the game. Play 1855 (1:17) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 30 for 1 yard (32-N.Bolton; 56-G.Karlaftis). ** Injury Update: LV-9-J.Nailor has returned to the game.
Q200:57 (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty [95-C.Jones]. Play 1882 (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty [95-C.Jones].
Q200:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to LV 46 for 16 yards (38-L.Sneed). Play 1908 (:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to LV 46 for 16 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q200:34 (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 48 for 2 yards (27-C.Conner). Play 1933 (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 48 for 2 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q200:28 Timeout #3 by LV at 00:28. Play 1970 Timeout #3 by LV at 00:28.
Q200:28 (:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers (27-C.Conner). Play 1958 (:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers (27-C.Conner).
Q200:22 (:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play. Play 1988 (:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play.
Q200:17 (:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to KC 30 for 17 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace). Play 2022 (:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to KC 30 for 17 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace).
Q200:04 (:04) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 2047 (:04) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q200:03 (:03) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 2070 (:03) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2090 Q315:00 7-H.Butker kicks 62 yards from KC 35 to LV 3. 81-D.Young to LV 33 for 30 yards (88-J.Briningstool; 31-J.Bassa). Play 2108 7-H.Butker kicks 62 yards from KC 35 to LV 3. 81-D.Young to LV 33 for 30 yards (88-J.Briningstool; 31-J.Bassa).
Q314:51 (14:51) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 40 for 7 yards (5-M.Delane; 97-A.Gillotte). Play 2136 (14:51) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 40 for 7 yards (5-M.Delane; 97-A.Gillotte).
Q314:16 (14:16) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 46 for 6 yards (27-C.Conner). Play 2158 (14:16) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 46 for 6 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q313:36 (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty pushed ob at KC 26 for 28 yards (43-J.Cochrane). Play 2180 (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty pushed ob at KC 26 for 28 yards (43-J.Cochrane).
Q312:31 (12:31) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington left end to KC 23 for 3 yards (32-N.Bolton). Play 2205 (12:31) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington left end to KC 23 for 3 yards (32-N.Bolton).
Q311:52 (11:52) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker. ** Injury Update: LV-66-T.Zuhn has returned to the game. Play 2239 (11:52) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker. ** Injury Update: LV-66-T.Zuhn has returned to the game.
Q311:46 (11:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers (38-L.Sneed) [56-G.Karlaftis]. Play 2264 (11:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers (38-L.Sneed) [56-G.Karlaftis].
Q311:41 (11:41) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. PENALTY on KC-99-P.Woods, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 23 - No Play. Play 2290 (11:41) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. PENALTY on KC-99-P.Woods, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 23 - No Play.
Q311:37 (11:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (23-D.Tranquill) [56-G.Karlaftis]. Play 2326 (11:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (23-D.Tranquill) [56-G.Karlaftis].
Q311:32 (11:32) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy pushed ob at KC 26 for 7 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 2349 (11:32) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy pushed ob at KC 26 for 7 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q311:00 (11:00) 9-K.Walker left guard to KC 32 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 2386 (11:00) 9-K.Walker left guard to KC 32 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q310:25 (10:25) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-E.Johnson to KC 42 for 10 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 2408 (10:25) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-E.Johnson to KC 42 for 10 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q309:42 (9:42) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce (97-T.Hemingway). Play 2433 (9:42) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce (97-T.Hemingway).
Q309:36 (9:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 34 for -8 yards (sack split by 69-A.Butler and 98-M.Crosby). Play 2456 (9:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 34 for -8 yards (sack split by 69-A.Butler and 98-M.Crosby).
Q308:53 (8:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 2-T.Thornton [98-M.Crosby]. Play 2476 (8:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 2-T.Thornton [98-M.Crosby].
Q308:45 (8:45) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. Play 2499 (8:45) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
Q308:38 (8:38) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 17 for 5 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah). Play 2519 (8:38) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 17 for 5 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah).
Q307:56 (7:56) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LV 21 for 4 yards (5-M.Delane; 92-K.Tonga). PENALTY on LV-70-S.Burford, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at LV 17 - No Play. Play 2548 (7:56) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LV 21 for 4 yards (5-M.Delane; 92-K.Tonga). PENALTY on LV-70-S.Burford, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at LV 17 - No Play.
Q307:34 (7:34) 4-M.Washington right end pushed ob at LV 20 for 11 yards (21-J.Hicks; 27-C.Conner). Play 2581 (7:34) 4-M.Washington right end pushed ob at LV 20 for 11 yards (21-J.Hicks; 27-C.Conner).
Q306:59 (6:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-I.Thomas to LV 25 for 5 yards (31-J.Bassa). Play 2608 (6:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-I.Thomas to LV 25 for 5 yards (31-J.Bassa).
Q306:20 (6:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 36 for 11 yards (20-N.Williams; 95-C.Jones). Play 2633 (6:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 36 for 11 yards (20-N.Williams; 95-C.Jones).
Q305:37 (5:37) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 35 for -1 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Play 2658 (5:37) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 35 for -1 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
Q304:58 (4:58) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Young [56-G.Karlaftis]. Play 2680 (4:58) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Young [56-G.Karlaftis].
Q304:53 (4:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Bowers [51-R.Thomas]. Play 2708 (4:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Bowers [51-R.Thomas].
Q304:49 (4:49) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 42 for 27 yards (50-S.Olubi). Play 2731 (4:49) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 42 for 27 yards (50-S.Olubi).
Q304:33 (4:33) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 45 for 3 yards (92-J.Pegues). Play 2757 (4:33) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 45 for 3 yards (92-J.Pegues).
Q303:54 (3:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy. Play 2786 (3:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy.
Q303:49 (3:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 2-T.Thornton (35-H.Masses). Play 2809 (3:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 2-T.Thornton (35-H.Masses).
Q303:43 (3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-D.Laube. Play 2832 (3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.
Q303:35 (3:35) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 23 for 8 yards (8-K.Fulton; 38-L.Sneed). Play 2852 (3:35) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 23 for 8 yards (8-K.Fulton; 38-L.Sneed).
Q303:08 (3:08) (No Huddle) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 22 for -1 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, 32-N.Bolton). LV-2-A.Jeanty was injured during the play. Play 2884 (3:08) (No Huddle) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 22 for -1 yards (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, 32-N.Bolton). LV-2-A.Jeanty was injured during the play.
Q302:50 (2:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to LV 26 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton). Play 2909 (2:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to LV 26 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton).
Q302:11 (2:11) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 34-C.Heyward to LV 35 for 9 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Play 2934 (2:11) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 34-C.Heyward to LV 35 for 9 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
Q301:29 (1:29) 4-M.Washington up the middle to LV 31 for -4 yards (8-K.Fulton). Play 2959 (1:29) 4-M.Washington up the middle to LV 31 for -4 yards (8-K.Fulton).
Q300:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker [91-F.Anudike-Uzomah]. Play 2981 (:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker [91-F.Anudike-Uzomah].
Q300:40 (:40) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to KC 21, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for no gain. PENALTY on KC-81-N.Remigio, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at KC 21. Play 3004 (:40) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to KC 21, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for no gain. PENALTY on KC-81-N.Remigio, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at KC 21.
Q300:30 (:30) 9-K.Walker right guard pushed ob at LV 8 for 76 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 3039 (:30) 9-K.Walker right guard pushed ob at LV 8 for 76 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3068 Q415:00 (15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left. Play 3088 (15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left.
Q414:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 2-T.Thornton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3121 (14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 2-T.Thornton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q414:50 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 3142 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q414:50 7-H.Butker kicks 63 yards from KC 35 to LV 2. 23-D.Laube pushed ob at KC 45 for 53 yards (48-C.Christiansen). Play 3157 7-H.Butker kicks 63 yards from KC 35 to LV 2. 23-D.Laube pushed ob at KC 45 for 53 yards (48-C.Christiansen).
Q414:41 (14:41) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to KC 45 for no gain (43-J.Cochrane; 5-M.Delane). ** Injury Update: LV-2-A.Jeanty has returned to the game. Play 3187 (14:41) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to KC 45 for no gain (43-J.Cochrane; 5-M.Delane). ** Injury Update: LV-2-A.Jeanty has returned to the game.
Q414:05 (14:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 4-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 46 for -1 yards (95-C.Jones). Play 3209 (14:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 4-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 46 for -1 yards (95-C.Jones).
Q413:25 Timeout #1 by LV at 13:25. Play 3253 Timeout #1 by LV at 13:25.
Q413:25 (13:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to KC 25 for 21 yards (5-M.Delane). Play 3241 (13:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to KC 25 for 21 yards (5-M.Delane).
Q412:40 (12:40) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Mayer. Play 3273 (12:40) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Mayer.
Q412:35 (12:35) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to KC 25 for no gain (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah; 56-G.Karlaftis). Play 3296 (12:35) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to KC 25 for no gain (91-F.Anudike-Uzomah; 56-G.Karlaftis).
Q411:55 (11:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to KC 26 for -1 yards (5-M.Delane). Play 3318 (11:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to KC 26 for -1 yards (5-M.Delane).
Q411:17 (11:17) 14-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 3343 (11:17) 14-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q411:12 14-M.Gay kicks 62 yards from LV 35 to KC 3. 81-N.Remigio to KC 30 for 27 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). Play 3363 14-M.Gay kicks 62 yards from LV 35 to KC 3. 81-N.Remigio to KC 30 for 27 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).
Q411:06 (11:06) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 29 for -1 yards (69-A.Butler, 98-M.Crosby). Play 3393 (11:06) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 29 for -1 yards (69-A.Butler, 98-M.Crosby).
Q410:34 (10:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left. Play 3415 (10:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left.
Q410:29 (10:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray to KC 35 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 3438 (10:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray to KC 35 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q409:50 (9:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson to LV 10 for 4 yards (29-X.Nwankpa). Play 3463 (9:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson to LV 10 for 4 yards (29-X.Nwankpa).
Q409:36 (9:36) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 4-M.Washington left guard to LV 10 for no gain (5-M.Delane). Play 3489 (9:36) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 4-M.Washington left guard to LV 10 for no gain (5-M.Delane).
Q409:00 (9:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to LV 37 for 27 yards (5-M.Delane) [23-D.Tranquill]. Play 3520 (9:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to LV 37 for 27 yards (5-M.Delane) [23-D.Tranquill].
Q408:24 (8:24) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 43 for 6 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Play 3545 (8:24) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 43 for 6 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
Q407:47 (7:47) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle pushed ob at KC 38 for 19 yards (20-N.Williams). Play 3567 (7:47) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle pushed ob at KC 38 for 19 yards (20-N.Williams).
Q407:11 (7:11) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to KC 29 for 9 yards (43-J.Cochrane) [56-G.Karlaftis]. Play 3594 (7:11) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to KC 29 for 9 yards (43-J.Cochrane) [56-G.Karlaftis].
Q406:28 (6:28) PENALTY on LV-34-C.Heyward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play. Play 3619 (6:28) PENALTY on LV-34-C.Heyward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play.
Q406:28 (6:28) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to KC 30 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton; 27-C.Conner). Play 3643 (6:28) 2-A.Jeanty left guard to KC 30 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton; 27-C.Conner).
Q405:46 (5:46) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to KC 30 for no gain (23-D.Tranquill; 97-A.Gillotte). Play 3665 (5:46) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to KC 30 for no gain (23-D.Tranquill; 97-A.Gillotte).
Q404:58 (4:58) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 3687 (4:58) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q404:53 14-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to end zone, Touchback to the KC 35. Play 3707 14-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to end zone, Touchback to the KC 35.
Q404:53 (4:53) 9-K.Walker left guard to KC 38 for 3 yards (94-F.Fatukasi; 3-T.Johnson). Play 3724 (4:53) 9-K.Walker left guard to KC 38 for 3 yards (94-F.Fatukasi; 3-T.Johnson).
Q404:19 (4:19) 9-K.Walker left end to KC 40 for 2 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 3746 (4:19) 9-K.Walker left end to KC 40 for 2 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q403:35 (3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5. Play 3768 (3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.
Q403:25 (3:25) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3807 (3:25) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:21 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes pass to 9-K.Walker is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 3832 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes pass to 9-K.Walker is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q403:21 7-H.Butker kicks 59 yards from KC 35 to LV 6. 81-D.Young to LV 22 for 16 yards (29-X.Nwankpa, 31-J.Bassa). FUMBLES (31-J.Bassa), RECOVERED by KC-43-J.Cochrane at LV 22. Play 3845 7-H.Butker kicks 59 yards from KC 35 to LV 6. 81-D.Young to LV 22 for 16 yards (29-X.Nwankpa, 31-J.Bassa). FUMBLES (31-J.Bassa), RECOVERED by KC-43-J.Cochrane at LV 22.
Q403:10 (3:10) 9-K.Walker right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3879 (3:10) 9-K.Walker right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:02 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. Play 3897 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q403:02 7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35. Play 3912 7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35.
Q403:02 (3:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 41 for 6 yards (38-L.Sneed). Play 3929 (3:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 41 for 6 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q402:44 (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White pushed ob at 50 for 9 yards (5-M.Delane). Play 3954 (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White pushed ob at 50 for 9 yards (5-M.Delane).
Q402:38 (2:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on KC-91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. Play 3979 (2:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on KC-91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q402:32 (2:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to KC 25 for 10 yards (38-L.Sneed; 30-C.Roland-Wallace). Play 4013 (2:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to KC 25 for 10 yards (38-L.Sneed; 30-C.Roland-Wallace).
Q402:10 (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at KC 35 for -10 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 25 - No Play. Play 4038 (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at KC 35 for -10 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 25 - No Play.
Q402:03 (2:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right. Play 4069 (2:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right.
Q401:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 89-B.Bowers for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4092 (1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 89-B.Bowers for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:46 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins pass to 82-C.White is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 4120 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins pass to 82-C.White is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q401:46 14-M.Gay kicks onside 20 yards from LV 35 to KC 45. 1-X.Worthy (didn't try to advance) to KC 45 for no gain. Play 4133 14-M.Gay kicks onside 20 yards from LV 35 to KC 45. 1-X.Worthy (didn't try to advance) to KC 45 for no gain.
Q401:44 (1:44) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 46 for 1 yard (69-A.Butler; 44-T.Eichenberg). Play 4156 (1:44) 9-K.Walker right guard to KC 46 for 1 yard (69-A.Butler; 44-T.Eichenberg).
Q401:40 Timeout #2 by LV at 01:40. Play 4190 Timeout #2 by LV at 01:40.
Q401:40 (1:40) 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 47 for 1 yard (94-F.Fatukasi). Play 4178 (1:40) 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 47 for 1 yard (94-F.Fatukasi).
Q401:35 Timeout #3 by LV at 01:35. Play 4219 Timeout #3 by LV at 01:35.
Q401:35 (1:35) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 43 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 38. 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy (3-T.Johnson). Play 4207 (1:35) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 43 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 38. 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy (3-T.Johnson).
Q401:26 (1:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to LV 1, impetus ends at LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-X.Nwankpa. Play 4253 (1:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to LV 1, impetus ends at LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-X.Nwankpa.
Q401:16 (1:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 9 for 8 yards (20-N.Williams). Play 4273 (1:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 9 for 8 yards (20-N.Williams).
Q401:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker (20-N.Williams). Play 4301 (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker (20-N.Williams).
Q401:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 9 - No Play. Play 4324 (1:05) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 9 - No Play.
Q401:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to LV 16 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton). Play 4348 (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to LV 16 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton).
Q400:48 (:48) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4373 (:48) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 82-C.White [56-G.Karlaftis]. Play 4396 (:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 82-C.White [56-G.Karlaftis].
Q400:43 (:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-C.White to LV 23 for 7 yards (5-M.Delane). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 82-C.White (5-M.Delane, 95-C.Jones). Play 4419 (:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-C.White to LV 23 for 7 yards (5-M.Delane). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 82-C.White (5-M.Delane, 95-C.Jones).
Q400:37 (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Williams; 38-L.Sneed). Play 4444 (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Williams; 38-L.Sneed).
Q400:31 (:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. Play 4509 (:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker.
Q400:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker to KC 49 for 23 yards (27-C.Conner). Play 4532 (:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker to KC 49 for 23 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q400:11 (:11) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4557 (:11) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:10 (:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Nwankpa (56-G.Karlaftis) [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC 36. 29-X.Nwankpa to KC 39 for 3 yards (82-C.White). Penalty on LV-2-A.Jeanty, Illegal Shift, declined. Play 4580 (:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Nwankpa (56-G.Karlaftis) [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC 36. 29-X.Nwankpa to KC 39 for 3 yards (82-C.White). Penalty on LV-2-A.Jeanty, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q400:01 (:01) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 38 for -1 yards. Play 4618 (:01) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to KC 38 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 388
Half seconds remaining 388
Quarter seconds remaining 388
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV -0.88 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 6
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 34
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 388
Half seconds remaining 388
Quarter seconds remaining 388
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 388
Half seconds remaining 388
Quarter seconds remaining 388
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:28 Fourth down · KC (11:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 33 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-E.Johnson. + Fourth down decision cost KC 3.05 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.308029545680601
Yardline 100 45
Elapsed share 0.3088888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2488
Half seconds remaining 688
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 688
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6470567196321028 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64706/0.61775/0.61656 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:38 Penalty · LV (2:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on KC-91-F.Anudike-Uzomah, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV 2.35 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 152
Half seconds remaining 152
Quarter seconds remaining 152
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 152
Half seconds remaining 152
Quarter seconds remaining 152
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV 1.26 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 152
Half seconds remaining 152
Quarter seconds remaining 152
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 152
Half seconds remaining 152
Quarter seconds remaining 152
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q303:43 Fourth down · KC (3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-D.Laube. + Fourth down decision cost KC 2.23 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.287036806601823
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.6880555555555555
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1123
Half seconds remaining 1123
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 223
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4690438232817331 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46904/ NA/0.44672 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:21 Fourth down · KC (13:21) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end to KC 42 for 12 yards (34-C.Heyward). + Fourth down decision cost KC 1.67 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -4.031253608834377
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.0275
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3501
Half seconds remaining 1701
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 801
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6332011523230515 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.61645/ NA/0.63320 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:50 Fourth down · KC (9:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson to LV 10 for 4 yards (29-X.Nwankpa). + Fourth down decision cost KC 0.45 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1587591432379532
Yardline 100 65
Elapsed share 0.8361111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 590
Half seconds remaining 590
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 590
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6349744941019385 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63497/ NA/0.63049 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:08 Penalty · LV (:08) (Punt formation) PENALTY on LV, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV 0.39 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 14
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2708
Half seconds remaining 908
Quarter seconds remaining 8
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 9
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2708
Half seconds remaining 908
Quarter seconds remaining 8
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV -0.39 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 14
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2708
Half seconds remaining 908
Quarter seconds remaining 8
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 9
Away team KC
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2708
Half seconds remaining 908
Quarter seconds remaining 8
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:48 Fourth down · KC (10:48) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). + Fourth down decision cost KC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -3.401026836550765
Yardline 100 50
Elapsed share 0.07
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3348
Half seconds remaining 1548
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 648
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6575564409480639 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65756/0.58061/0.62583 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:08 Fourth down · LV (:08) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 14, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.670238257919396
Yardline 100 58
Elapsed share 0.2477777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2708
Half seconds remaining 908
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 8
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3733876430937101 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33738/ NA/0.37339 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:21 Fourth down · LV (9:21) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 40 for 1 yard (8-K.Fulton; 43-J.Cochrane). + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -1.135883463522748
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.3441666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2361
Half seconds remaining 561
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 561
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3933828759817358 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39338/ NA/0.37741 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:23 Kick · LV (3:23) 14-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.7630993490900027
Yardline 100 13
Elapsed share 0.4436111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2003
Half seconds remaining 203
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 203
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4329279403565287 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41822/0.43293/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV 1.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q201:26 Kick · KC (1:26) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Fourth down decision cost KC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.670074051774386
Yardline 100 10
Elapsed share 0.4761111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1886
Half seconds remaining 86
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 86
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.577268909858748 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55580/0.57727/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation KC 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 26 recorded events Q308:45 Fourth down · KC (8:45) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. + Fourth down decision cost KC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 18
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.4014833283416705
Yardline 100 66
Elapsed share 0.6041666666666666
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1425
Half seconds remaining 1425
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 525
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4448777722336643 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39611/ NA/0.44488 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:49 Fourth down · LV (4:49) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 42 for 27 yards (50-S.Olubi). + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.3088771999887858
Yardline 100 65
Elapsed share 0.6697222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q411:17 Kick · LV (11:17) 14-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1748721084649044
Yardline 100 26
Elapsed share 0.8119444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4 Q404:58 Kick · LV (4:58) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.1147715679039877
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.9172222222222223
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1 Q401:26 Fourth down · KC (1:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to LV 1, impetus ends at LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-X.Nwankpa. + Fourth down decision cost KC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam KC
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.09068466158639117
Yardline 100 53
Elapsed share 0.9761111111111112
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 4.5
Original posteam KC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q400:37 Fourth down · LV (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Williams; 38-L.Sneed). + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.08587938285642341
Yardline 100 84
Elapsed share 0.9897222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q113:34 Penalty · KC (13:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 64 yards to LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson pushed ob at LV 16 for 15 yards (47-B.VanSumeren). PENALTY on KC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q108:10 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.03 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q108:04 Penalty · KC (8:04) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice ran ob at KC 38 for 7 yards (31-T.Stukes). PENALTY on LV-94-F.Fatukasi, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:23 Kick · KC 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Extra point points above expectation KC 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q212:51 Penalty · KC (12:51) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-E.Johnson to LV 49 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker) [99-T.Booker]. PENALTY on KC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:30 Penalty · LV (5:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 9-J.Nailor. LV-9-J.Nailor was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:22 Penalty · LV (:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:03 Kick · LV (:03) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Field goal points above expectation LV 1.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q311:41 Penalty · LV (11:41) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. PENALTY on KC-99-P.Woods, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:37 Fourth down · LV (11:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (23-D.Tranquill) [56-G.Karlaftis]. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team KC
Home team LV
Away total 26
Home total 21.5
Total line 47.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -4.5
Spread time -0.4860332903430675
Yardline 100 18
Elapsed share 0.5563888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -4.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q307:56 Penalty · LV (7:56) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LV 21 for 4 yards (5-M.Delane; 92-K.Tonga). PENALTY on LV-70-S.Burford, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at LV 17 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q300:40 Penalty · LV (:40) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to KC 21, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for no gain. PENALTY on KC-81-N.Remigio, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at KC 21. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:50 Kick · KC 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Extra point points above expectation KC 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q403:35 Penalty · KC (3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5. + Observed ruling consequence KC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:21 Fumble · LV 7-H.Butker kicks 59 yards from KC 35 to LV 6. 81-D.Young to LV 22 for 16 yards (29-X.Nwankpa, 31-J.Bassa). FUMBLES (31-J.Bassa), RECOVERED by KC-43-J.Cochrane at LV 22. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q403:02 Kick · KC 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. + Extra point points above expectation KC 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q402:10 Penalty · LV (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at KC 35 for -10 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:35 Fumble · KC (1:35) (Shotgun) 52-C.Humphrey to KC 43 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 38. 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy (3-T.Johnson). + Fumble recoveries above expectation LV -0.26 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation KC 0.26 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:05 Penalty · LV (1:05) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 9 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:10 Fourth down · LV (:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Nwankpa (56-G.Karlaftis) [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC 36. 29-X.Nwankpa to KC 39 for 3 yards (82-C.White). Penalty on LV-2-A.Jeanty, Illegal Shift, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 bd9f72bc80850611dec2d8112894f98c0dbf7003dd3fadcf94a16a0c05bc71c7Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 3d2318b19d11de401e19589eb8c5ca3214494d1d63c8d46c279038e31d9d1d79
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 5, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
3
Game seconds remaining 1189
Half seconds remaining 1189
Quarter seconds remaining 289
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.491857339216641 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43852/ NA/0.49186 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 677
Half seconds remaining 677
Quarter seconds remaining 677
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2499859368611703 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24238/0.24999/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV 1.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 298
Half seconds remaining 298
Quarter seconds remaining 298
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4329650159389145 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43009/0.43297/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV 1.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Score differential
3
Quarter seconds remaining 86
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8310586226680958 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81735/ NA/0.83106 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-3
Quarter seconds remaining 37
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.03832688056624005 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03833/ NA/0.00290 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
3
Game seconds remaining 1597
Half seconds remaining 1597
Quarter seconds remaining 697
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5660806194628694 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56608/0.54614/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled