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Sus 4 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Penalty patterns were this unusual in 1 of 779 comparison games. How this rating was calculated Sus (4/5): The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: SEA by 12.6; actual result: SEA by 7.
The 5.6-point difference was matched or exceeded in 411 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Sus · 4/5 Combined penalty yards: 280 versus 96.0 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 1 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 0.77%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: SEA by 7.0; actual result: SEA by 7. The difference was 0 points.
7,276 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Seattle Seahawks by 7
Final margin Seattle Seahawks by 7
Difference 0 points
Push — the final margin matched the spread.
7,276 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (100%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score SEA by 12.6
Actual final margin SEA by 7
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Seattle Seahawks chance to win during the game 154 preplay estimates across 187 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 33 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 5 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 01:03 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 4593 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -9 yards (7-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (7-U.Nwosu) [7-U.Nwosu], RECOVERED by SEA-58-D.Hall at LAC 20. PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 7.0 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 02:53 Recorded game event
Seattle Seahawks · Play 3227 (2:53) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PENALTY on LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LAC awarded SEA a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.0 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:10 Recorded game event
Seattle Seahawks · Play 4409 (2:10) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 32 for -3 yards (sack split by 92-J.Eboigbe and 45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on LAC-92-J.Eboigbe, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 32.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 187 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 187 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 3. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 31 for 28 yards (30-A.Finley; 28-N.Pritchett). Play 39 5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 3. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 31 for 28 yards (30-A.Finley; 28-N.Pritchett).
Q114:53 (14:53) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 32-D.Thomas at LAC 45. 32-D.Thomas to LAC 45 for no gain (86-O.Gadsden). Play 62 (14:53) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 32-D.Thomas at LAC 45. 32-D.Thomas to LAC 45 for no gain (86-O.Gadsden).
Q114:46 (14:46) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 23-E.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 44. 45-T.Tuipulotu to LAC 48 for 4 yards (23-E.Wilson). Play 89 (14:46) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 23-E.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 45-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 44. 45-T.Tuipulotu to LAC 48 for 4 yards (23-E.Wilson).
Source play 89 SEA preplay win probability: 58.5%
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 55 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q202:39 Penalty · SEA (2:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-61-J.Sundell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA -1.41 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 16
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 1959
Half seconds remaining 159
Quarter seconds remaining 159
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 152ea0757cde6fcb5810b05f1528496f2b75d9f8d668c292be6bcce46d8dce16This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
411 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 1 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Scott Novak Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.9 accepted penalties for 94.9 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.1 / 49.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.8 / 45.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Scott Novak; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Seattle Seahawks · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Seattle Seahawks · Opponent penalties Opponent LAC was charged 16 penalties for 130 yards.
Los Angeles Chargers · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Los Angeles Chargers · Opponent penalties Opponent SEA was charged 14 penalties for 150 yards.
Explore the historical comparisons (1) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
Seattle Seahawks Historical context
Winning-profile context SEA won. Prior matching team-games: 336 wins, 435 losses, 3 ties among 774 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards 336 / 774 prior matching team-games were wins
435 losses · 3 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 154 model estimates across 187 recorded game entries.
33 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (187 entries) 0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence 1.08 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Ruling expected points consequence 0.48 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence -1.41 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Ruling expected points consequence -0.32 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence 0.34 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Ruling expected points consequence 0.69 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence 0.2 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Ruling expected points consequence 0.23 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence -0.65 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Ruling expected points consequence -0.62 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
LAC Fourth down decision cost 1.96 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28224/0.26266/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63577/ NA/0.67095 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0.29 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18149/ NA/0.17854 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0.08 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16360/0.15883/0.16282 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79584/ NA/0.80735 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80575/0.79002/0.81492 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0.06 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15421/ NA/0.15363 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05281/ NA/0.06589 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0.35 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.92237/ NA/0.91889 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01597/0.01226/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97113/0.97602/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.95338/0.93687/0.96214 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88755/ NA/0.92284 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
SEA Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.64 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 89th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
LAC Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.64 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 89th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
SEA Field goal points above expectation 0.17 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 3rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LAC Field goal points above expectation 0.81 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 27th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
SEA Extra point points above expectation -0.84 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 87th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
LAC Extra point points above expectation 0.14 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 38th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
SEA Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 187 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
LAC Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 187 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
LAC Presnap called penalties above expectation 3.49 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 5 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.73 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.69 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 25 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.35 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
25 of 25 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 25 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.81 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.05 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.49 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.6 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 11:26 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 3694 (11:26) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to SEA 45 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 45.
Defensive penalty on SEA awarded LAC a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.6 percentage points across this play.
Show 1 more play Q3 · 08:48 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 2739 (8:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 39 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). PENALTY on SEA-3-N.Emmanwori, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 39.
Defensive penalty on SEA awarded LAC a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.9 percentage points across this play.
Q114:38 (14:38) (Shotgun) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton up the middle to SEA 49 for 3 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 116 (14:38) (Shotgun) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton up the middle to SEA 49 for 3 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q114:03 (14:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell to SEA 41 for 8 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 140 (14:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell to SEA 41 for 8 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q113:30 (13:30) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 28-K.Vidal. Play 165 (13:30) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 28-K.Vidal.
Q113:26 Timeout #1 by LAC at 13:26. Play 200 Timeout #1 by LAC at 13:26.
Q113:26 (13:26) (Shotgun) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 9-T.Harris to SEA 28 for 13 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 188 (13:26) (Shotgun) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 9-T.Harris to SEA 28 for 13 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q112:48 (12:48) 8-O.Hampton right tackle to SEA 23 for 5 yards (3-N.Emmanwori; 58-D.Hall). PENALTY on SEA-7-U.Nwosu, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 28 - No Play. Play 222 (12:48) 8-O.Hampton right tackle to SEA 23 for 5 yards (3-N.Emmanwori; 58-D.Hall). PENALTY on SEA-7-U.Nwosu, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 28 - No Play.
Q112:32 (12:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 34-K.Mitchell. Play 255 (12:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 34-K.Mitchell.
Q112:30 (12:30) 28-K.Vidal left guard to SEA 22 for 1 yard (13-E.Jones). Penalty on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-9-T.Harris, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Play 278 (12:30) 28-K.Vidal left guard to SEA 22 for 1 yard (13-E.Jones). Penalty on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-9-T.Harris, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.
Q112:03 (12:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston. Play 311 (12:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston.
Q111:58 (11:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 334 (11:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q111:54 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 35. Play 361 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 35.
Q111:54 (11:54) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 44 for 9 yards (20-C.Hart). PENALTY on SEA-74-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35 - No Play. Play 378 (11:54) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 44 for 9 yards (20-C.Hart). PENALTY on SEA-74-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35 - No Play.
Q111:34 (11:34) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to SEA 40 for 15 yards (20-C.Hart). Play 413 (11:34) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to SEA 40 for 15 yards (20-C.Hart).
Q111:00 (11:00) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson right guard to SEA 42 for 2 yards (0-D.Henley; 52-K.Mack). Play 435 (11:00) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson right guard to SEA 42 for 2 yards (0-D.Henley; 52-K.Mack).
Q110:23 (10:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left [45-T.Tuipulotu]. PENALTY on SEA-14-S.Darnold, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 42. Play 457 (10:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left [45-T.Tuipulotu]. PENALTY on SEA-14-S.Darnold, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 42.
Q110:13 (10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23. Play 500 (10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.
Q110:03 (10:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 23-E.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 530 (10:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 23-E.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q109:55 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 556 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q109:55 5-J.Myers kicks 64 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 1. 12-D.Davis to LAC 31 for 30 yards (94-M.Morris). Play 571 5-J.Myers kicks 64 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 1. 12-D.Davis to LAC 31 for 30 yards (94-M.Morris).
Q109:48 (9:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right [7-U.Nwosu]. Play 601 (9:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right [7-U.Nwosu].
Q109:44 (9:44) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 30 for -1 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 624 (9:44) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 30 for -1 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q109:03 (9:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 38 for 8 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 646 (9:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 38 for 8 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q108:20 (8:20) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Play 671 (8:20) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
Q108:14 (8:14) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 20 for 2 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 18 - No Play. Play 691 (8:14) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 20 for 2 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 18 - No Play.
Q108:05 (8:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 32 for 9 yards (26-D.Jackson). Play 731 (8:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 32 for 9 yards (26-D.Jackson).
Q107:33 (7:33) 36-G.Holani left end to SEA 41 for 9 yards (23-T.Jefferson). PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 41. Play 756 (7:33) 36-G.Holani left end to SEA 41 for 9 yards (23-T.Jefferson). PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 41.
Q107:10 (7:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 23-E.Wilson to SEA 49 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor) [93-T.Tart]. PENALTY on SEA-38-B.Russell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 49. Play 789 (7:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 23-E.Wilson to SEA 49 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor) [93-T.Tart]. PENALTY on SEA-38-B.Russell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 49.
Q106:35 (6:35) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right end to SEA 33 for -1 yards (23-T.Jefferson). Play 825 (6:35) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right end to SEA 33 for -1 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q105:54 (5:54) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani left guard to SEA 37 for 4 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 27-R.Mickens). Play 847 (5:54) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani left guard to SEA 37 for 4 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 27-R.Mickens).
Q105:11 (5:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for no gain (57-C.O'Toole). PENALTY on SEA-57-C.O'Toole, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 18. Play 869 (5:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for no gain (57-C.O'Toole). PENALTY on SEA-57-C.O'Toole, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 18.
Q105:02 (5:02) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 28-K.Vidal right tackle to LAC 42 for 9 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 913 (5:02) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 28-K.Vidal right tackle to LAC 42 for 9 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q104:26 (4:26) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to SEA 43 for 15 yards (13-E.Jones; 20-J.Love). Play 937 (4:26) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to SEA 43 for 15 yards (13-E.Jones; 20-J.Love).
Q103:55 (3:55) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to SEA 41 for 2 yards (56-D.Fowler). Play 959 (3:55) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to SEA 41 for 2 yards (56-D.Fowler).
Q103:16 (3:16) (Shotgun) 1-Q.Johnston left end pushed ob at SEA 45 for -4 yards (0-D.Lawrence). Play 981 (3:16) (Shotgun) 1-Q.Johnston left end pushed ob at SEA 45 for -4 yards (0-D.Lawrence).
Q102:44 Timeout #1 by SEA at 02:44. Play 1020 Timeout #1 by SEA at 02:44.
Q102:44 (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 15-L.McConkey. Play 1008 (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 15-L.McConkey.
Q102:40 (2:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback. Play 1043 (2:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
Q102:32 (2:32) 23-E.Wilson right end to SEA 19 for -1 yards (52-K.Mack). Play 1061 (2:32) 23-E.Wilson right end to SEA 19 for -1 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q101:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 25 for 6 yards (27-R.Mickens). Play 1090 (1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 25 for 6 yards (27-R.Mickens).
Q101:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner. Play 1115 (1:15) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner.
Q101:12 (1:12) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. Play 1138 (1:12) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q101:05 (1:05) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 26 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 13-E.Jones). Play 1164 (1:05) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 26 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 13-E.Jones).
Q100:27 (:27) 34-K.Mitchell right end pushed ob at LAC 27 for 1 yard (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 1196 (:27) 34-K.Mitchell right end pushed ob at LAC 27 for 1 yard (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1223 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -7 yards (91-B.Murphy). Play 1243 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -7 yards (91-B.Murphy).
Q214:20 (14:20) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on SEA-1-J.Neal, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 40. Play 1263 (14:20) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on SEA-1-J.Neal, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 40.
Q214:11 (14:11) 23-E.Wilson right end to SEA 33 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 92-J.Eboigbe). Play 1300 (14:11) 23-E.Wilson right end to SEA 33 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 92-J.Eboigbe).
Q213:36 (13:36) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at LAC 47 for 20 yards (24-R.Shelley). Play 1322 (13:36) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at LAC 47 for 20 yards (24-R.Shelley).
Q213:15 (13:15) (No Huddle) 23-E.Wilson right end to LAC 44 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 93-T.Tart). Play 1352 (13:15) (No Huddle) 23-E.Wilson right end to LAC 44 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 93-T.Tart).
Q212:37 (12:37) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right end to LAC 46 for -2 yards (0-D.Henley, 99-J.Caldwell). Play 1374 (12:37) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right end to LAC 46 for -2 yards (0-D.Henley, 99-J.Caldwell).
Q211:57 (11:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 22-R.Shaheed [0-D.Henley]. Play 1396 (11:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 22-R.Shaheed [0-D.Henley].
Q211:51 (11:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LAC 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. Play 1419 (11:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LAC 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q211:44 (11:44) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left guard to LAC 18 for 6 yards (32-D.Thomas). Play 1446 (11:44) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left guard to LAC 18 for 6 yards (32-D.Thomas).
Q211:11 (11:11) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 18 for no gain (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 1468 (11:11) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 18 for no gain (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q210:32 (10:32) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 86-O.Gadsden (20-J.Love) [32-D.Thomas]. Play 1490 (10:32) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 86-O.Gadsden (20-J.Love) [32-D.Thomas].
Q210:30 (10:30) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Play 1513 (10:30) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
Q210:23 (10:23) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 27 for -8 yards (52-K.Mack). Play 1540 (10:23) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 27 for -8 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q209:38 (9:38) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 36-G.Holani to SEA 29 for 2 yards (53-D.Phillips). Play 1560 (9:38) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 36-G.Holani to SEA 29 for 2 yards (53-D.Phillips).
Q208:55 (8:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to LAC 43 for 28 yards (22-G.Smith) [93-T.Tart]. Play 1585 (8:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to LAC 43 for 28 yards (22-G.Smith) [93-T.Tart].
Q208:16 (8:16) 23-E.Wilson right tackle to LAC 40 for 3 yards (93-T.Tart). Play 1610 (8:16) 23-E.Wilson right tackle to LAC 40 for 3 yards (93-T.Tart).
Q207:40 (7:40) 23-E.Wilson right guard to LAC 34 for 6 yards (90-A.Mesidor). Play 1632 (7:40) 23-E.Wilson right guard to LAC 34 for 6 yards (90-A.Mesidor).
Q207:00 (7:00) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson right guard to LAC 28 for 6 yards (20-C.Hart; 2-E.Molden). Play 1654 (7:00) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson right guard to LAC 28 for 6 yards (20-C.Hart; 2-E.Molden).
Q206:19 (6:19) 22-R.Shaheed left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1678 (6:19) 22-R.Shaheed left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q206:12 5-J.Myers extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 1701 5-J.Myers extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q206:12 5-J.Myers kicks 43 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on SEA-5-J.Myers, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LAC 40. Play 1716 5-J.Myers kicks 43 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on SEA-5-J.Myers, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LAC 40.
Q206:12 (6:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to LAC 41 for 1 yard (29-J.Jobe). Play 1752 (6:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to LAC 41 for 1 yard (29-J.Jobe).
Q205:25 (5:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-70-R.Slater, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play. Play 1774 (5:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-70-R.Slater, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play.
Q205:05 (5:05) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 34-K.Mitchell left tackle to LAC 39 for 3 yards (13-E.Jones; 3-N.Emmanwori). Play 1798 (5:05) 77-T.Burke reported in as eligible. 34-K.Mitchell left tackle to LAC 39 for 3 yards (13-E.Jones; 3-N.Emmanwori).
Q204:21 (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 31 for -8 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 1822 (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 31 for -8 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q203:37 (3:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 12 yards (32-K.Williamson). Play 1842 (3:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 12 yards (32-K.Williamson).
Q203:26 (3:26) 23-E.Wilson right tackle to SEA 36 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu, 92-J.Eboigbe). Play 1877 (3:26) 23-E.Wilson right tackle to SEA 36 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu, 92-J.Eboigbe).
Q202:46 (2:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp (4-T.Still). Play 1899 (2:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp (4-T.Still).
Q202:39 (2:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-61-J.Sundell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 36 - No Play. Play 1922 (2:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-61-J.Sundell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 36 - No Play.
Q202:39 (2:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 44 for 13 yards (0-D.Henley). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 1946 (2:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 44 for 13 yards (0-D.Henley). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q202:00 (2:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 30 yards to LAC 26, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-30-A.Finley. Play 1971 (2:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 30 yards to LAC 26, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-30-A.Finley.
Q201:50 (1:50) (Shotgun) 86-O.Gadsden left end to LAC 28 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 2011 (1:50) (Shotgun) 86-O.Gadsden left end to LAC 28 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q201:29 (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at LAC 40. 13-E.Jones to LAC 20 for 20 yards (28-K.Vidal; 10-J.Herbert). Play 2040 (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at LAC 40. 13-E.Jones to LAC 20 for 20 yards (28-K.Vidal; 10-J.Herbert).
Q201:20 (1:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to LAC 8 for 12 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 2067 (1:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to LAC 8 for 12 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q200:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2092 (:47) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q200:43 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 2115 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q200:43 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 0. 12-D.Davis to LAC 34 for 34 yards (52-P.O'Connell). Play 2130 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 0. 12-D.Davis to LAC 34 for 34 yards (52-P.O'Connell).
Q200:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 28-K.Vidal to LAC 36 for 2 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 2153 (:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 28-K.Vidal to LAC 36 for 2 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q200:31 Timeout #2 by LAC at 00:31. Play 2183 Timeout #2 by LAC at 00:31.
Q200:31 (:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling (28-N.Pritchett). Play 2190 (:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling (28-N.Pritchett).
Q200:27 (:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to SEA 38 for 26 yards (24-R.Thomas). Play 2213 (:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to SEA 38 for 26 yards (24-R.Thomas).
Q200:18 Timeout #3 by LAC at 00:18. Play 2247 Timeout #3 by LAC at 00:18.
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-75-T.Penning, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 38 - No Play. Play 2235 (:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-75-T.Penning, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 38 - No Play.
Q200:18 Timeout #2 by SEA at 00:18. Play 2278 Timeout #2 by SEA at 00:18.
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal left tackle to SEA 36 for 7 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-3-N.Emmanwori, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 36. Play 2266 (:18) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal left tackle to SEA 36 for 7 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-3-N.Emmanwori, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 36.
Q200:05 (:05) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 2306 (:05) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2326 Q315:00 11-C.Dicker kicks 64 yards from LAC 35 to SEA 1. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 32 for 31 yards (43-T.Dye). Play 2344 11-C.Dicker kicks 64 yards from LAC 35 to SEA 1. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 32 for 31 yards (43-T.Dye).
Q314:55 (14:55) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at LAC 48 for 20 yards (0-D.Henley). Play 2367 (14:55) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at LAC 48 for 20 yards (0-D.Henley).
Q314:20 (14:20) 23-E.Wilson right guard to LAC 44 for 4 yards (93-T.Tart; 53-D.Phillips). PENALTY on LAC-99-J.Caldwell, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 44. Play 2397 (14:20) 23-E.Wilson right guard to LAC 44 for 4 yards (93-T.Tart; 53-D.Phillips). PENALTY on LAC-99-J.Caldwell, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 44.
Q313:55 (13:55) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to LAC 36 for 3 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu; 52-K.Mack). Play 2430 (13:55) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to LAC 36 for 3 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu; 52-K.Mack).
Q313:11 (13:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end ran ob at LAC 28 for 8 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 2452 (13:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end ran ob at LAC 28 for 8 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q312:33 (12:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to LAC 15 for 13 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 2479 (12:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to LAC 15 for 13 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q311:51 (11:51) 22-R.Shaheed left end to LAC 10 for 5 yards (20-C.Hart; 90-A.Mesidor). Play 2504 (11:51) 22-R.Shaheed left end to LAC 10 for 5 yards (20-C.Hart; 90-A.Mesidor).
Q311:10 (11:10) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to LAC 6 for 4 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 53-D.Phillips). Play 2526 (11:10) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to LAC 6 for 4 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 53-D.Phillips).
Q310:26 Timeout #1 by SEA at 10:26. Play 2560 Timeout #1 by SEA at 10:26.
Q310:26 (10:26) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2548 (10:26) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q310:23 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 2583 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q310:23 5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 41 for 38 yards (81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on LAC-81-P.Herbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 29. Play 2598 5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 41 for 38 yards (81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on LAC-81-P.Herbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 29.
Q310:15 (10:15) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 16 for -3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 16. Play 2644 (10:15) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 16 for -3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 16.
Q309:54 (9:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end pushed ob at LAC 32 for 1 yard (0-D.Lawrence). Play 2682 (9:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end pushed ob at LAC 32 for 1 yard (0-D.Lawrence).
Q309:23 (9:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 37 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas; 13-E.Jones). Play 2709 (9:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 37 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas; 13-E.Jones).
Q308:48 (8:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 39 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). PENALTY on SEA-3-N.Emmanwori, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 39. Play 2739 (8:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 39 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). PENALTY on SEA-3-N.Emmanwori, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 39.
Q308:35 (8:35) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at SEA 20 for 26 yards (20-J.Love). Play 2780 (8:35) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at SEA 20 for 26 yards (20-J.Love).
Q307:58 (7:58) PENALTY on LAC-9-T.Harris, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20 - No Play. Play 2810 (7:58) PENALTY on LAC-9-T.Harris, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20 - No Play.
Q307:46 (7:46) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to SEA 26 for -1 yards (0-D.Lawrence). Play 2843 (7:46) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to SEA 26 for -1 yards (0-D.Lawrence).
Q307:07 (7:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at SEA 23 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 2870 (7:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at SEA 23 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q306:34 (6:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden to SEA 14 for 9 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 2900 (6:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden to SEA 14 for 9 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q305:54 (5:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to SEA 9 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams]. Play 2925 (5:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to SEA 9 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams].
Q305:05 (5:05) (Shotgun) 9-T.Harris pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Herbert (3-N.Emmanwori) [7-U.Nwosu]. Play 2950 (5:05) (Shotgun) 9-T.Harris pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Herbert (3-N.Emmanwori) [7-U.Nwosu].
Q304:58 (4:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-K.Vidal for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The touchdown was assisted by replay. Play 2973 (4:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-K.Vidal for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The touchdown was assisted by replay.
Q304:53 (Kick formation) PENALTY on LAC-77-T.Burke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 15 - No Play. Play 3004 (Kick formation) PENALTY on LAC-77-T.Burke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 15 - No Play.
Q304:53 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 3039 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q304:53 11-C.Dicker kicks 59 yards from LAC 35 to SEA 6. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 31 for 25 yards (58-M.Wax). Play 3054 11-C.Dicker kicks 59 yards from LAC 35 to SEA 6. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 31 for 25 yards (58-M.Wax).
Q304:48 (4:48) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 33 for 2 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), and recovers at SEA 35. Play 3084 (4:48) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 33 for 2 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), and recovers at SEA 35.
Q304:05 (4:05) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 23-E.Wilson to SEA 48 for 13 yards (93-T.Tart). PENALTY on LAC-27-R.Mickens, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 48. Play 3106 (4:05) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 23-E.Wilson to SEA 48 for 13 yards (93-T.Tart). PENALTY on LAC-27-R.Mickens, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 48.
Q303:42 (3:42) 36-G.Holani up the middle to LAC 35 for 2 yards (91-N.Barrett). Play 3142 (3:42) 36-G.Holani up the middle to LAC 35 for 2 yards (91-N.Barrett).
Q303:05 (3:05) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left. Play 3164 (3:05) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left.
Q302:58 (2:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed [27-R.Mickens]. Play 3187 (2:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed [27-R.Mickens].
Q302:53 (2:53) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PENALTY on LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play. Play 3227 (2:53) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PENALTY on LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play.
Q302:49 (2:49) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to LAC 21 for -1 yards (99-J.Caldwell). Play 3259 (2:49) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to LAC 21 for -1 yards (99-J.Caldwell).
Q302:08 (2:08) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to LAC 17 for 4 yards (91-N.Barrett). Play 3281 (2:08) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to LAC 17 for 4 yards (91-N.Barrett).
Q301:26 (1:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (4-T.Still). Play 3308 (1:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (4-T.Still).
Q301:22 (1:22) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 3331 (1:22) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q301:19 5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 25 for 22 yards (94-M.Morris). PENALTY on LAC-58-M.Wax, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 25. Play 3358 5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 25 for 22 yards (94-M.Morris). PENALTY on LAC-58-M.Wax, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 25.
Q301:13 (1:13) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 9-T.Harris. Play 3392 (1:13) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 9-T.Harris.
Q301:06 (1:06) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end pushed ob at LAC 16 for 1 yard (24-R.Thomas). Play 3415 (1:06) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end pushed ob at LAC 16 for 1 yard (24-R.Thomas).
Q300:31 (:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at LAC 30 for 14 yards (58-D.Hall). Play 3442 (:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell ran ob at LAC 30 for 14 yards (58-D.Hall).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3472 Q415:00 (15:00) 10-J.Herbert scrambles left guard to LAC 33 for 3 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 3492 (15:00) 10-J.Herbert scrambles left guard to LAC 33 for 3 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q414:18 (14:18) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. PENALTY on LAC-77-T.Burke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 33 - No Play. Play 3514 (14:18) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. PENALTY on LAC-77-T.Burke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 33 - No Play.
Q414:11 (14:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 16 for -7 yards (0-D.Lawrence). PENALTY on SEA-0-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 23 - No Play. Play 3548 (14:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 16 for -7 yards (0-D.Lawrence). PENALTY on SEA-0-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 23 - No Play.
Q414:02 (14:02) 34-K.Mitchell left tackle to LAC 46 for 8 yards (20-J.Love). Play 3579 (14:02) 34-K.Mitchell left tackle to LAC 46 for 8 yards (20-J.Love).
Q413:28 (13:28) 34-K.Mitchell right end pushed ob at SEA 34 for 20 yards (24-R.Thomas). Play 3601 (13:28) 34-K.Mitchell right end pushed ob at SEA 34 for 20 yards (24-R.Thomas).
Q412:55 (12:55) 34-K.Mitchell up the middle to SEA 32 for 2 yards (32-D.Thomas). Play 3628 (12:55) 34-K.Mitchell up the middle to SEA 32 for 2 yards (32-D.Thomas).
Q412:13 (12:13) 10-J.Herbert sacked at SEA 43 for -11 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 3650 (12:13) 10-J.Herbert sacked at SEA 43 for -11 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q411:26 (11:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 43 - No Play. Play 3670 (11:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 43 - No Play.
Q411:26 (11:26) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to SEA 45 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 45. Play 3694 (11:26) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to SEA 45 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 45.
Q411:08 (11:08) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to SEA 24 for 6 yards (32-D.Thomas). Play 3730 (11:08) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to SEA 24 for 6 yards (32-D.Thomas).
Q410:28 (10:28) 34-K.Mitchell right guard to SEA 23 for 1 yard (29-J.Jobe). Play 3752 (10:28) 34-K.Mitchell right guard to SEA 23 for 1 yard (29-J.Jobe).
Q409:49 (9:49) 8-O.Hampton right guard to SEA 17 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe; 13-E.Jones). Play 3774 (9:49) 8-O.Hampton right guard to SEA 17 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe; 13-E.Jones).
Q409:12 (9:12) 8-O.Hampton right end pushed ob at SEA 6 for 11 yards (20-J.Love). Play 3796 (9:12) 8-O.Hampton right end pushed ob at SEA 6 for 11 yards (20-J.Love).
Q408:38 (8:38) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left end pushed ob at SEA 5 for 1 yard (24-R.Thomas). Play 3823 (8:38) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left end pushed ob at SEA 5 for 1 yard (24-R.Thomas).
Q408:06 (8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert left guard to SEA 2 for 3 yards (58-D.Hall; 7-U.Nwosu). LAC-70-R.Slater was injured during the play. SEA-99-L.Williams was injured during the play. Play 3850 (8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert left guard to SEA 2 for 3 yards (58-D.Hall; 7-U.Nwosu). LAC-70-R.Slater was injured during the play. SEA-99-L.Williams was injured during the play.
Q407:52 (7:52) 8-O.Hampton left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3885 (7:52) 8-O.Hampton left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q407:48 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 3908 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q407:48 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 20. PENALTY on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play. Play 3923 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 20. PENALTY on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play.
Q407:48 11-C.Dicker kicks 63 yards from LAC 30 to SEA 7. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 34 for 27 yards (43-T.Dye; 33-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), and recovers at SEA 34. Play 3959 11-C.Dicker kicks 63 yards from LAC 30 to SEA 7. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 34 for 27 yards (43-T.Dye; 33-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), and recovers at SEA 34.
Q407:42 (7:42) 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 35 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips). Play 3982 (7:42) 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 35 for 1 yard (53-D.Phillips).
Q407:05 (7:05) 23-E.Wilson left end to 50 for 15 yards (0-D.Henley). Play 4004 (7:05) 23-E.Wilson left end to 50 for 15 yards (0-D.Henley).
Q406:21 (6:21) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard to LAC 49 for 1 yard (93-T.Tart). Play 4026 (6:21) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard to LAC 49 for 1 yard (93-T.Tart).
Q405:38 (5:38) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right guard to LAC 41 for 8 yards (53-D.Phillips; 2-E.Molden). Play 4053 (5:38) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right guard to LAC 41 for 8 yards (53-D.Phillips; 2-E.Molden).
Q404:55 (4:55) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right guard to LAC 43 for -2 yards (2-E.Molden, 45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 4075 (4:55) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right guard to LAC 43 for -2 yards (2-E.Molden, 45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q404:09 (4:09) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play. Play 4097 (4:09) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play.
Q404:09 (4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-1-J.Neal. Play 4121 (4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-1-J.Neal.
Q404:01 (4:01) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end pushed ob at LAC 13 for 6 yards (28-N.Pritchett). Play 4148 (4:01) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end pushed ob at LAC 13 for 6 yards (28-N.Pritchett).
Q403:57 (3:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 10 for -3 yards (32-D.Thomas). Play 4175 (3:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 10 for -3 yards (32-D.Thomas).
Q403:33 (3:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 86-O.Gadsden [90-J.Reed]. Play 4200 (3:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 86-O.Gadsden [90-J.Reed].
Q403:28 (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston to SEA 46 for 44 yards (24-R.Thomas). Play 4223 (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston to SEA 46 for 44 yards (24-R.Thomas).
Q402:54 (2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 9-T.Harris. Play 4248 (2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 9-T.Harris.
Q402:50 (2:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 12-D.Davis to SEA 40 for 6 yards (7-U.Nwosu). Play 4271 (2:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 12-D.Davis to SEA 40 for 6 yards (7-U.Nwosu).
Q402:23 (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 9-T.Harris ran ob at SEA 19 for 21 yards (24-R.Thomas) [3-N.Emmanwori]. Play 4313 (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 9-T.Harris ran ob at SEA 19 for 21 yards (24-R.Thomas) [3-N.Emmanwori].
Q402:17 (2:17) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 4343 (2:17) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q402:14 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 35. Play 4363 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 35.
Q402:14 (2:14) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 35 for no gain (52-K.Mack). Play 4380 (2:14) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 35 for no gain (52-K.Mack).
Q402:10 Timeout #1 by LAC at 02:10. Play 4402 Timeout #1 by LAC at 02:10.
Q402:10 (2:10) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 32 for -3 yards (sack split by 92-J.Eboigbe and 45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on LAC-92-J.Eboigbe, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 32. Play 4409 (2:10) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 32 for -3 yards (sack split by 92-J.Eboigbe and 45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on LAC-92-J.Eboigbe, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 32.
Q402:02 (2:02) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (20-C.Hart). Play 4440 (2:02) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (20-C.Hart).
Q401:56 (1:56) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 49 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack). Play 4463 (1:56) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 49 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack).
Q401:53 Timeout #2 by LAC at 01:53. Play 4504 Timeout #2 by LAC at 01:53.
Q401:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 40 for -9 yards (43-T.Dye). Play 4492 (1:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 40 for -9 yards (43-T.Dye).
Q401:49 Timeout #3 by LAC at 01:49. Play 4531 Timeout #3 by LAC at 01:49.
Q401:49 (1:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. Play 4519 (1:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q401:42 (1:42) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 20 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones; 20-J.Love). Play 4546 (1:42) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 20 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones; 20-J.Love).
Q401:22 (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 29 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 4568 (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 29 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q401:03 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -9 yards (7-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (7-U.Nwosu) [7-U.Nwosu], RECOVERED by SEA-58-D.Hall at LAC 20. PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20. Play 4593 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -9 yards (7-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (7-U.Nwosu) [7-U.Nwosu], RECOVERED by SEA-58-D.Hall at LAC 20. PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20.
Q400:54 (:54) 14-S.Darnold kneels to LAC 11 for -1 yards. Play 4634 (:54) 14-S.Darnold kneels to LAC 11 for -1 yards.
Q400:32 (:32) 14-S.Darnold kneels to LAC 12 for -1 yards. Play 4656 (:32) 14-S.Darnold kneels to LAC 12 for -1 yards.
Roof
outdoors
Game seconds remaining 1959
Half seconds remaining 159
Quarter seconds remaining 159
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SEA -0.32 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 16
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 1959
Half seconds remaining 159
Quarter seconds remaining 159
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 11
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 1959
Half seconds remaining 159
Quarter seconds remaining 159
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:25 Penalty · LAC (5:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-70-R.Slater, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA 1.08 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 14
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2125
Half seconds remaining 325
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 9
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2125
Half seconds remaining 325
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SEA 0.48 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 14
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2125
Half seconds remaining 325
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 9
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2125
Half seconds remaining 325
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q404:09 Penalty · SEA (4:09) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA -0.65 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 8
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 249
Half seconds remaining 249
Quarter seconds remaining 249
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 3
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 249
Half seconds remaining 249
Quarter seconds remaining 249
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SEA -0.62 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 8
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 249
Half seconds remaining 249
Quarter seconds remaining 249
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 3
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 249
Half seconds remaining 249
Quarter seconds remaining 249
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Fourth down · SEA (2:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 30 yards to LAC 26, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-30-A.Finley. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0.35 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 1.082467851844784
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.4666666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1920
Half seconds remaining 120
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 120
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9223723780951822 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.92237/ NA/0.91889 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:58 Penalty · LAC (7:58) PENALTY on LAC-9-T.Harris, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA 0.34 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 15
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 1378
Half seconds remaining 1378
Quarter seconds remaining 478
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 1378
Half seconds remaining 1378
Quarter seconds remaining 478
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SEA 0.69 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 15
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 1378
Half seconds remaining 1378
Quarter seconds remaining 478
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -21
Game seconds remaining 1378
Half seconds remaining 1378
Quarter seconds remaining 478
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q108:20 Fourth down · LAC (8:20) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0.29 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 4.488262719009683
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.1111111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3200
Half seconds remaining 1400
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 500
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1814875300584908 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18149/ NA/0.17854 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:26 Penalty · LAC (11:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA 0.2 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 24
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 686
Half seconds remaining 686
Quarter seconds remaining 686
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 19
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 686
Half seconds remaining 686
Quarter seconds remaining 686
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence SEA 0.23 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 24
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 686
Half seconds remaining 686
Quarter seconds remaining 686
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 19
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 686
Half seconds remaining 686
Quarter seconds remaining 686
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q102:40 Fourth down · LAC (2:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0.08 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 3.076178029235185
Yardline 100 45
Elapsed share 0.2055555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2860
Half seconds remaining 1060
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 160
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1636021521890206 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16360/0.15883/0.16282 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:30 Fourth down · LAC (10:30) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0.06 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 1.907722551238088
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.325
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2430
Half seconds remaining 630
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 630
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1542146110979664 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15421/ NA/0.15363 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:13 Fumble · SEA (10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 5.088694224203194
Yardline 100 68
Elapsed share 0.07972222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3313
Half seconds remaining 1513
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 613
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6709472578367771 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63577/ NA/0.67095 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:12 Fourth down · SEA (1:12) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 2.789633287591599
Yardline 100 75
Elapsed share 0.23
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2772
Half seconds remaining 972
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 72
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8073460266980383 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79584/ NA/0.80735 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:51 Fourth down · SEA (11:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LAC 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 2.087380956009212
Yardline 100 46
Elapsed share 0.3025
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2511
Half seconds remaining 711
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 711
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8149184898317099 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80575/0.79002/0.81492 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 43 recorded events Q203:37 Fourth down · LAC (3:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 12 yards (32-K.Williamson). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 19
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 1.205652917159121
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.4397222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2017
Half seconds remaining 217
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 217
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.06588734405963204 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05281/ NA/0.06589 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:54 Fourth down · LAC (5:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to SEA 9 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams]. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.5164604752193077
Yardline 100 14
Elapsed share 0.6516666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q301:22 Kick · SEA (1:22) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.3817540446816954
Yardline 100 17
Elapsed share 0.7272222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q404:09 Fourth down · SEA (4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-1-J.Neal. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.1690732570559132
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.9308333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q401:49 Fourth down · SEA (1:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 0.1447164830661977
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.9697222222222223
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 7
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q112:48 Penalty · LAC (12:48) 8-O.Hampton right tackle to SEA 23 for 5 yards (3-N.Emmanwori; 58-D.Hall). PENALTY on SEA-7-U.Nwosu, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 28 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:30 Fourth down · LAC (12:30) 28-K.Vidal left guard to SEA 22 for 1 yard (13-E.Jones). Penalty on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-9-T.Harris, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q111:58 Kick · LAC (11:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 1.96 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team LAC
Home team SEA
Away total 17.75
Home total 24.75
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 7
Spread time 5.718393600256903
Yardline 100 22
Elapsed share 0.05055555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 17.75
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -7
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q111:54 Penalty · SEA (11:54) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 44 for 9 yards (20-C.Hart). PENALTY on SEA-74-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:23 Penalty · SEA (10:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left [45-T.Tuipulotu]. PENALTY on SEA-14-S.Darnold, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 42. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:55 Kick · SEA 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Extra point points above expectation SEA -0.84 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q108:14 Penalty · SEA (8:14) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left end to SEA 20 for 2 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:33 Penalty · SEA (7:33) 36-G.Holani left end to SEA 41 for 9 yards (23-T.Jefferson). PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 41. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:10 Penalty · SEA (7:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 23-E.Wilson to SEA 49 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor) [93-T.Tart]. PENALTY on SEA-38-B.Russell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 49. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:11 Penalty · SEA (5:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for no gain (57-C.O'Toole). PENALTY on SEA-57-C.O'Toole, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 18. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:20 Penalty · LAC (14:20) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on SEA-1-J.Neal, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 40. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:12 Kick · SEA 5-J.Myers extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Extra point points above expectation SEA -0.84 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q206:12 Penalty · LAC 5-J.Myers kicks 43 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on SEA-5-J.Myers, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LAC 40. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:43 Kick · SEA 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Extra point points above expectation SEA -0.84 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q200:18 Penalty · LAC (:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-75-T.Penning, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:18 Penalty · LAC (:18) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal left tackle to SEA 36 for 7 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-3-N.Emmanwori, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 36. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:05 Kick · LAC (:05) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Field goal points above expectation LAC 0.81 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q314:20 Penalty · SEA (14:20) 23-E.Wilson right guard to LAC 44 for 4 yards (93-T.Tart; 53-D.Phillips). PENALTY on LAC-99-J.Caldwell, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 44. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:23 Kick · SEA 5-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Extra point points above expectation SEA -0.84 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q310:23 Penalty · LAC 5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 41 for 38 yards (81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on LAC-81-P.Herbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 29. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:15 Penalty · LAC (10:15) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 16 for -3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 16. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:48 Penalty · LAC (8:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 39 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). PENALTY on SEA-3-N.Emmanwori, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 39. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:53 Penalty · LAC (Kick formation) PENALTY on LAC-77-T.Burke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 15 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:53 Kick · LAC 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Extra point points above expectation LAC 0.14 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q304:48 Fumble · SEA (4:48) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 33 for 2 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), and recovers at SEA 35. + Fumble recoveries above expectation SEA 0.64 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.64 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:05 Penalty · SEA (4:05) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 23-E.Wilson to SEA 48 for 13 yards (93-T.Tart). PENALTY on LAC-27-R.Mickens, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 48. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:53 Penalty · SEA (2:53) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PENALTY on LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:19 Penalty · LAC 5-J.Myers kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 25 for 22 yards (94-M.Morris). PENALTY on LAC-58-M.Wax, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 25. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:18 Penalty · LAC (14:18) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-Q.Johnston. PENALTY on LAC-77-T.Burke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 33 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:11 Penalty · LAC (14:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 16 for -7 yards (0-D.Lawrence). PENALTY on SEA-0-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:26 Penalty · LAC (11:26) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to SEA 45 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 45. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:48 Kick · LAC 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Extra point points above expectation LAC 0.14 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q407:48 Penalty · SEA 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the SEA 20. PENALTY on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:48 Fumble · SEA 11-C.Dicker kicks 63 yards from LAC 30 to SEA 7. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 34 for 27 yards (43-T.Dye; 33-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), and recovers at SEA 34. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q403:28 Fourth down · LAC (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston to SEA 46 for 44 yards (24-R.Thomas). + Fourth down decision cost LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:17 Kick · LAC (2:17) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Field goal points above expectation LAC 0.81 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q402:10 Penalty · SEA (2:10) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 32 for -3 yards (sack split by 92-J.Eboigbe and 45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on LAC-92-J.Eboigbe, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 32. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:03 Penalty · LAC (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -9 yards (7-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (7-U.Nwosu) [7-U.Nwosu], RECOVERED by SEA-58-D.Hall at LAC 20. PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 f726aba00a87c82c3e98440c01414be9f36e7ef862776e1c01d31d9e715b0157Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: a6107e758818b46e9bd00e90668d5524bbe9d904ff1e11de7736192c96e7517e
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 14 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 8:07 AM UTC Version 13 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 9, 2026, 2:12 AM UTC Version 12 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 6, 2026, 2:49 AM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 5:41 PM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated after a correction
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Oct 5, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 5:28 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 5, 2026, 12:13 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-21
Game seconds remaining 1254
Half seconds remaining 1254
Quarter seconds remaining 354
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.01596728210177909 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01597/0.01226/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
14
Game seconds remaining 982
Half seconds remaining 982
Quarter seconds remaining 82
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9760169499461971 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97113/0.97602/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation SEA 0.17 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
10
Game seconds remaining 249
Half seconds remaining 249
Quarter seconds remaining 249
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9621402853096793 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.95338/0.93687/0.96214 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 109
Half seconds remaining 109
Quarter seconds remaining 109
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9228392268764062 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88755/ NA/0.92284 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 3418
Half seconds remaining 1618
Quarter seconds remaining 718
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2822384076687857 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28224/0.26266/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LAC 0.81 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled