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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: LA by 7.1; actual result: LA by 4.
The 3.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 577 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty count: 18 versus 11.1 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 188 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 72.69%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: LA by 3.5; actual result: LA by 4. The difference was 0.5 points.
7,081 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Los Angeles Rams by 3.5
Final margin Los Angeles Rams by 4
Difference 0.5 points
Los Angeles Rams covered the spread.
7,081 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (97.3%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score LA by 7.1
Actual final margin LA by 4
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Philadelphia Eagles chance to win during the game 162 preplay estimates across 187 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 25 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 4 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 05:20 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 3909 (5:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at PHI 26 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on PHI-31-J.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at PHI 26.
Defensive penalty on PHI awarded LA a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 7.6 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:59 Recorded game event
Philadelphia Eagles · Play 4105 92-H.Mevis kicks 60 yards from LA 35 to PHI 5, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-92-H.Mevis, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at PHI 40.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:07 Recorded game event
Philadelphia Eagles · Play 4254 (3:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 46 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.8 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 187 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 187 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 92-H.Mevis kicks 57 yards from LA 35 to PHI 8. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 25 for 17 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 40 92-H.Mevis kicks 57 yards from LA 35 to PHI 8. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 25 for 17 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q114:55 (14:55) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to PHI 27 for 2 yards (55-B.Fiske; 10-J.Stewart). Play 63 (14:55) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to PHI 27 for 2 yards (55-B.Fiske; 10-J.Stewart).
Q114:12 (14:12) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at PHI 29 for 2 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 85 (14:12) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at PHI 29 for 2 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q113:33 (13:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right [55-B.Fiske]. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 46 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q402:55 Penalty · LA (2:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua (2-T.Woolen). PENALTY on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -3.16 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 75
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 172
Half seconds remaining 172
Quarter seconds remaining 172
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1cc443d2167df1241f78d8ad97cdbb61ccc44dbec518ec76e09f6fcf2b418aafThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
577 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 188 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Craig Wrolstad Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.6 accepted penalties for 97 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.6 / 45.3 yd per game. Away teams: 6 / 51.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Craig Wrolstad; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Philadelphia Eagles · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Philadelphia Eagles · Opponent penalties Opponent LA was charged 8 penalties for 100 yards.
Los Angeles Rams · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Los Angeles Rams · Opponent penalties Opponent PHI was charged 10 penalties for 57 yards.
Philadelphia Eagles · Long punt return 41-yard punt return.
Explore the historical comparisons (3) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
Los Angeles Rams Historical context
Winning-profile context LA won. Prior matching team-games: 58 wins, 257 losses, 2 ties among 317 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards Negative turnover margin 58 / 317 prior matching team-games were wins
257 losses · 2 ties among the matches
Los Angeles Rams Historical context
Winning-profile context LA won. Prior matching team-games: 336 wins, 435 losses, 3 ties among 774 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards 336 / 774 prior matching team-games were wins
435 losses · 3 ties among the matches
Los Angeles Rams Historical context
Winning-profile context LA won. Prior matching team-games: 1226 wins, 4513 losses, 13 ties among 5752 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
1,226 / 5,752 prior matching team-games were wins
4,513 losses · 13 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 162 model estimates across 187 recorded game entries.
25 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (187 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -2.78 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -0.58 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -1.76 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -0.35 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -3.16 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -0.55 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29793/ NA/0.32356 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 2.04 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41088/0.39053/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55690/0.56937/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38434/0.32624/0.37407 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0.17 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35994/0.39123/0.39292 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 2.44 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54490/ NA/0.52046 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41330/ NA/0.45530 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.40030/ NA/0.48700 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0.87 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25613/ NA/0.24742 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68816/ NA/0.71156 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28027/0.18306/0.23387 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 2.32 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26657/0.24341/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15166/ NA/0.18810 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80044/ NA/0.79279 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19410/0.17780/0.15874 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94308/0.92596/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59623/ NA/0.67365 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
PHI Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.59 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 83rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
LA Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.59 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 83rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
PHI Field goal points above expectation 1.11 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 43rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LA Field goal points above expectation -2.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 77th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
PHI Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
LA Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 37th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
PHI Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 187 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
LA Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 187 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
PHI Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.82 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 64 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.02 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 64 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.41 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
55 of 55 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 55 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.36 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
55 of 55 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 55 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.7 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
83 of 83 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 83 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.6 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
83 of 83 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 83 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q4 · 02:55 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 4304 (2:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua (2-T.Woolen). PENALTY on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 21 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.4 percentage points across this play.
Play 115
(13:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right [55-B.Fiske].
Q113:25 (13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 15 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo). Play 138 (13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 15 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo).
Q113:17 (13:17) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 22 for 7 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 164 (13:17) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 22 for 7 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q112:43 (12:43) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 25 for 3 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 189 (12:43) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 25 for 3 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q112:09 (12:09) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua. PENALTY on PHI-52-J.Greenard, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play. Play 211 (12:09) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua. PENALTY on PHI-52-J.Greenard, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play.
Q112:03 (12:03) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 4-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba at LA 49. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at LA 28 for 21 yards (77-A.Jackson). Play 245 (12:03) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 4-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba at LA 49. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at LA 28 for 21 yards (77-A.Jackson).
Q111:48 (11:48) 26-S.Barkley left end to LA 22 for 6 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at LA 22. PHI-26-S.Barkley was injured during the play. Play 277 (11:48) 26-S.Barkley left end to LA 22 for 6 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at LA 22. PHI-26-S.Barkley was injured during the play.
Q111:20 (11:20) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle to LA 15 for 7 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 312 (11:20) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle to LA 15 for 7 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q110:40 (10:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 10 for 5 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 341 (10:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 10 for 5 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q110:01 (10:01) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle to LA 6 for 4 yards (97-P.Ford). Play 363 (10:01) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle to LA 6 for 4 yards (97-P.Ford).
Q109:18 (9:18) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby left end to LA 11 for -5 yards (97-P.Ford, 0-B.Young). LA-97-P.Ford was injured during the play. Play 385 (9:18) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby left end to LA 11 for -5 yards (97-P.Ford, 0-B.Young). LA-97-P.Ford was injured during the play.
Q108:42 (8:42) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 407 (8:42) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q108:38 4-J.Elliott kicks 65 yards from PHI 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the LA 20. Play 442 4-J.Elliott kicks 65 yards from PHI 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the LA 20.
Q108:38 (8:38) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 21 for 1 yard (3-N.Smith). Play 464 (8:38) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 21 for 1 yard (3-N.Smith).
Q108:01 (8:01) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 24-B.Corum (54-J.Trotter). Play 486 (8:01) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 24-B.Corum (54-J.Trotter).
Q107:55 (7:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams to LA 31 for 10 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 509 (7:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams to LA 31 for 10 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q107:18 (7:18) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams [58-J.Hunt]. Play 539 (7:18) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams [58-J.Hunt].
Q107:12 (7:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 24-B.Corum to LA 38 for 7 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 562 (7:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 24-B.Corum to LA 38 for 7 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q106:32 (6:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 34 for 28 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 592 (6:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 34 for 28 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q105:45 (5:45) 24-B.Corum up the middle to PHI 28 for 6 yards (35-M.Carter; 98-J.Carter). Play 617 (5:45) 24-B.Corum up the middle to PHI 28 for 6 yards (35-M.Carter; 98-J.Carter).
Q105:06 (5:06) 24-B.Corum left end to PHI 26 for 2 yards (54-J.Trotter; 33-C.DeJean). Play 639 (5:06) 24-B.Corum left end to PHI 26 for 2 yards (54-J.Trotter; 33-C.DeJean).
Q104:28 (4:28) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 20 for 6 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 661 (4:28) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 20 for 6 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q103:51 (3:51) 23-K.Williams right end pushed ob at PHI 16 for 4 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 683 (3:51) 23-K.Williams right end pushed ob at PHI 16 for 4 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q103:14 (3:14) 23-K.Williams left tackle to PHI 12 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean; 17-A.Ebiketie). PENALTY on LA-87-D.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 16 - No Play. Play 710 (3:14) 23-K.Williams left tackle to PHI 12 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean; 17-A.Ebiketie). PENALTY on LA-87-D.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 16 - No Play.
Q102:51 (2:51) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right end pushed ob at PHI 22 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 743 (2:51) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right end pushed ob at PHI 22 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q102:18 (2:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams (35-M.Carter) [98-J.Carter]. Play 770 (2:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams (35-M.Carter) [98-J.Carter].
Q102:12 (2:12) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 793 (2:12) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q102:08 92-H.Mevis kicks 59 yards from LA 35 to PHI 6. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 33 for 27 yards (56-S.Dolac; 37-Q.Lake). Play 813 92-H.Mevis kicks 59 yards from LA 35 to PHI 6. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 33 for 27 yards (56-S.Dolac; 37-Q.Lake).
Q102:02 (2:02) 8-T.Bigsby left tackle to PHI 37 for 4 yards (90-T.Davis; 52-L.Murchison). Play 843 (2:02) 8-T.Bigsby left tackle to PHI 37 for 4 yards (90-T.Davis; 52-L.Murchison).
Q101:25 (1:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 45 for 8 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 865 (1:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 45 for 8 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q100:54 (:54) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 45 for 0 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 890 (:54) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 45 for 0 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q100:10 (:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to LA 47 for 8 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 919 (:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to LA 47 for 8 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 944 Q215:00 (15:00) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks. ** Injury Update: LA-97-P.Ford has returned to the game. Play 964 (15:00) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks. ** Injury Update: LA-97-P.Ford has returned to the game.
Q214:53 (14:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to LA 34 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 997 (14:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to LA 34 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q214:12 (14:12) 28-W.Shipley left guard to LA 30 for 4 yards (47-W.Bailey). Play 1025 (14:12) 28-W.Shipley left guard to LA 30 for 4 yards (47-W.Bailey).
Q213:34 (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 13-D.Wicks to LA 24 for 6 yards (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake). Play 1047 (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 13-D.Wicks to LA 24 for 6 yards (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake).
Q212:56 (12:56) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to LA 5 for 19 yards (53-N.Landman; 5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play. Play 1072 (12:56) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to LA 5 for 19 yards (53-N.Landman; 5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play.
Q212:31 (12:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 9-M.Lemon to LA 28 for 6 yards (5-K.Kinchens; 53-N.Landman). Play 1105 (12:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 9-M.Lemon to LA 28 for 6 yards (5-K.Kinchens; 53-N.Landman).
Q211:53 (11:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 86-Z.Ertz. Play 1130 (11:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 86-Z.Ertz.
Q211:48 (11:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at LA 38 for -10 yards (sack split by 0-B.Young and 5-K.Kinchens). Play 1153 (11:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at LA 38 for -10 yards (sack split by 0-B.Young and 5-K.Kinchens).
Q211:02 (11:02) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 1173 (11:02) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q210:56 4-J.Elliott kicks 61 yards from PHI 35 to LA 4. 11-A.Bachman to LA 27 for 23 yards (42-S.Mondon). Play 1193 4-J.Elliott kicks 61 yards from PHI 35 to LA 4. 11-A.Bachman to LA 27 for 23 yards (42-S.Mondon).
Q210:51 (10:51) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 31 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 1223 (10:51) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 31 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q210:13 (10:13) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 36 for 5 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 1245 (10:13) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 36 for 5 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q209:29 (9:29) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 35 for -1 yards (97-M.Ojomo). Play 1270 (9:29) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 35 for -1 yards (97-M.Ojomo).
Q208:49 (8:49) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 16 yards (36-M.Pulley; 53-N.Landman). Play 1292 (8:49) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 16 yards (36-M.Pulley; 53-N.Landman).
Q208:36 (8:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 36 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake) [97-P.Ford]. PENALTY on LA-53-N.Landman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 36. Play 1318 (8:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 36 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake) [97-P.Ford]. PENALTY on LA-53-N.Landman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 36.
Q208:05 (8:05) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right tackle to LA 48 for 1 yard (3-K.Curl; 53-N.Landman). Play 1361 (8:05) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right tackle to LA 48 for 1 yard (3-K.Curl; 53-N.Landman).
Q207:20 (7:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 28-W.Shipley (5-K.Kinchens). Play 1383 (7:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 28-W.Shipley (5-K.Kinchens).
Q207:15 (7:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 48 - No Play. Play 1406 (7:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 48 - No Play.
Q207:15 (7:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 9-M.Lemon. Play 1430 (7:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 9-M.Lemon.
Q207:08 (7:08) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to LA 7, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo. Play 1453 (7:08) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to LA 7, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.
Q206:57 (6:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 87-D.Allen (58-J.Hunt). Play 1473 (6:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 87-D.Allen (58-J.Hunt).
Q206:53 (6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington (33-C.DeJean). Play 1503 (6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington (33-C.DeJean).
Q206:48 (6:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 4-K.Mumpfield (35-M.Carter). LA-4-K.Mumpfield was injured during the play. Play 1526 (6:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 4-K.Mumpfield (35-M.Carter). LA-4-K.Mumpfield was injured during the play.
Q206:42 (6:42) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to PHI 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at LA 17 for 41 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 1552 (6:42) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to PHI 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at LA 17 for 41 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q206:26 (6:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 18 for -1 yards (90-T.Davis). Play 1578 (6:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 18 for -1 yards (90-T.Davis).
Q205:51 (5:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1605 (5:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q205:44 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 1631 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q205:44 4-J.Elliott kicks 56 yards from PHI 35 to LA 9. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 24 yards (35-M.Carter; 42-S.Mondon). Play 1646 4-J.Elliott kicks 56 yards from PHI 35 to LA 9. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 24 yards (35-M.Carter; 42-S.Mondon).
Q205:39 (5:39) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at LA 49 for 16 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 1676 (5:39) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at LA 49 for 16 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q205:04 (5:04) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 12-P.Nacua (2-T.Woolen). Play 1706 (5:04) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 12-P.Nacua (2-T.Woolen).
Q204:59 (4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 88-J.Whittington to PHI 47 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 1729 (4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 88-J.Whittington to PHI 47 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q204:14 (4:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at PHI 35 for 12 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 1754 (4:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at PHI 35 for 12 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q203:55 (3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams to PHI 30 for 5 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 1789 (3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams to PHI 30 for 5 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q203:07 (3:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 26 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis). Play 1814 (3:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 26 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis).
Q202:40 (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to PHI 21 for 5 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 1836 (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to PHI 21 for 5 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q202:13 (2:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to PHI 2 for 19 yards (58-J.Hunt). Play 1861 (2:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to PHI 2 for 19 yards (58-J.Hunt).
Q202:00 (2:00) 12-P.Nacua left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1886 (2:00) 12-P.Nacua left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q201:55 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 1916 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q201:55 92-H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PHI 35. Play 1931 92-H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PHI 35.
Q201:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 40 for 5 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 1955 (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 40 for 5 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q201:36 (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. Play 1980 (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks.
Q201:31 (1:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 44 for 4 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. Play 2003 (1:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 44 for 4 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Q201:25 (1:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right. Play 2039 (1:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.
Q201:17 (1:17) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to LA 17, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 18 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo). LA-1-E.Forbes was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-7-K.Ringo, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. Play 2062 (1:17) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to LA 17, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 18 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo). LA-1-E.Forbes was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-7-K.Ringo, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play.
Q201:08 (1:08) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 21, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. Play 2088 (1:08) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 21, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
Q201:00 (1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to LA 23 for 2 yards (24-A.Mukuba). Play 2122 (1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to LA 23 for 2 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
Q200:42 (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 19 for -4 yards (3-N.Smith). PENALTY on PHI-27-Q.Mitchell, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LA 23 - No Play. Play 2152 (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 19 for -4 yards (3-N.Smith). PENALTY on PHI-27-Q.Mitchell, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LA 23 - No Play.
Q200:34 (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 12-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (35-M.Carter) at PHI 40. 33-C.DeJean to LA 35 for 25 yards (23-K.Williams). Play 2172 (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 12-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (35-M.Carter) at PHI 40. 33-C.DeJean to LA 35 for 25 yards (23-K.Williams).
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 9-M.Lemon (91-K.Turner). Play 2211 (:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 9-M.Lemon (91-K.Turner).
Q200:14 (:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks (22-T.McDuffie). PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LA 35 - No Play. Play 2234 (:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks (22-T.McDuffie). PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LA 35 - No Play.
Q200:09 Timeout #1 by PHI at 00:09. Play 2280 Timeout #1 by PHI at 00:09.
Q200:09 (:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, declined. Play 2268 (:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q200:03 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 2312 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q200:03 4-J.Elliott kicks 54 yards from PHI 35 to LA 11. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 22 yards (84-E.Jenkins). Play 2327 4-J.Elliott kicks 54 yards from PHI 35 to LA 11. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 22 yards (84-E.Jenkins).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2350 Q315:00 4-J.Elliott kicks 64 yards from PHI 35 to LA 1. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 20 yards (57-A.Epenesa; 7-K.Ringo). Play 2370 4-J.Elliott kicks 64 yards from PHI 35 to LA 1. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 20 yards (57-A.Epenesa; 7-K.Ringo).
Q314:52 (14:52) 24-B.Corum left end to LA 24 for 3 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). PHI-27-Q.Mitchell was injured during the play. Play 2393 (14:52) 24-B.Corum left end to LA 24 for 3 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). PHI-27-Q.Mitchell was injured during the play.
Q314:29 (14:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to LA 35 for 11 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 2418 (14:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to LA 35 for 11 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q313:59 (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to LA 40 for 5 yards (31-J.Jones). Play 2450 (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to LA 40 for 5 yards (31-J.Jones).
Q313:31 (13:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams. Play 2475 (13:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams.
Q313:25 (13:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams. Play 2498 (13:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
Q313:20 (13:20) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. Play 2521 (13:20) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
Q313:13 (13:13) 8-T.Bigsby right guard to PHI 13 for no gain (22-T.McDuffie). Play 2541 (13:13) 8-T.Bigsby right guard to PHI 13 for no gain (22-T.McDuffie).
Q312:36 (12:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 8-T.Bigsby. ** Injury Update: LA-1-E.Forbes has returned to the game. Play 2570 (12:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 8-T.Bigsby. ** Injury Update: LA-1-E.Forbes has returned to the game.
Q312:32 (12:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper to PHI 18 for 5 yards (22-T.McDuffie). Play 2593 (12:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper to PHI 18 for 5 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q311:58 (11:58) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 40 for 3 yards (80-D.Cooper). Play 2621 (11:58) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 40 for 3 yards (80-D.Cooper).
Q311:48 (11:48) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end to LA 43 for 3 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 2647 (11:48) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end to LA 43 for 3 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q311:20 (11:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 23-K.Williams [58-J.Hunt]. Play 2676 (11:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 23-K.Williams [58-J.Hunt].
Q311:15 (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to LA 49 for 6 yards (54-J.Trotter). ** Injury Update: LA-4-K.Mumpfield has returned to the game. Play 2699 (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to LA 49 for 6 yards (54-J.Trotter). ** Injury Update: LA-4-K.Mumpfield has returned to the game.
Q310:40 (10:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to PHI 47 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 2724 (10:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to PHI 47 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q310:24 (10:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 39 for 8 yards (54-J.Trotter; 2-T.Woolen). Play 2749 (10:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 39 for 8 yards (54-J.Trotter; 2-T.Woolen).
Q309:59 (9:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 4-K.Mumpfield to PHI 32 for 7 yards (54-J.Trotter; 35-M.Carter). Play 2779 (9:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 4-K.Mumpfield to PHI 32 for 7 yards (54-J.Trotter; 35-M.Carter).
Q309:24 (9:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at PHI 40 for -8 yards (3-N.Smith). Play 2807 (9:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at PHI 40 for -8 yards (3-N.Smith).
Q308:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 36 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis). Play 2827 (8:41) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 36 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis).
Q308:00 (8:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 29 for 7 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 2852 (8:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 29 for 7 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q307:20 (7:20) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 2877 (7:20) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q307:15 (7:15) 8-T.Bigsby left guard to PHI 43 for 5 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 2898 (7:15) 8-T.Bigsby left guard to PHI 43 for 5 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q306:40 (6:40) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon. Play 2927 (6:40) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon.
Q306:36 (6:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper. Play 2950 (6:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper.
Q306:32 (6:32) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 23 yards (42-S.Mondon). PENALTY on LA-88-J.Whittington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25. Play 2973 (6:32) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 23 yards (42-S.Mondon). PENALTY on LA-88-J.Whittington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.
Q306:19 (6:19) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 18 for 3 yards (90-J.Davis). Play 3010 (6:19) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 18 for 3 yards (90-J.Davis).
Q305:43 (5:43) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 24 for 6 yards (90-J.Davis). Play 3032 (5:43) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 24 for 6 yards (90-J.Davis).
Q305:01 (5:01) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 47 for 23 yards (54-J.Trotter). PHI-33-C.DeJean was injured during the play. PENALTY on LA, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 47. Play 3054 (5:01) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 47 for 23 yards (54-J.Trotter). PHI-33-C.DeJean was injured during the play. PENALTY on LA, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 47.
Q304:35 (4:35) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 34 for 2 yards (22-M.McWilliams). Play 3090 (4:35) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 34 for 2 yards (22-M.McWilliams).
Q303:59 (3:59) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 42 for 24 yards (35-M.Carter; 31-J.Jones). PENALTY on LA-12-P.Nacua, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play. Play 3112 (3:59) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 42 for 24 yards (35-M.Carter; 31-J.Jones). PENALTY on LA-12-P.Nacua, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play.
Q303:32 (3:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 23-K.Williams. Play 3148 (3:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 23-K.Williams.
Q303:26 (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua. ** Injury Update: PHI-33-C.DeJean has returned to the game. Play 3171 (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua. ** Injury Update: PHI-33-C.DeJean has returned to the game.
Q303:21 (3:21) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to PHI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 2 yards (33-D.Connors; 36-M.Pulley). Play 3194 (3:21) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to PHI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 2 yards (33-D.Connors; 36-M.Pulley).
Q303:07 (3:07) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle to PHI 33 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 3223 (3:07) 8-T.Bigsby up the middle to PHI 33 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q302:31 (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to PHI 35 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 3245 (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to PHI 35 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q301:45 (1:45) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley up the middle to PHI 38 for 3 yards (90-T.Davis; 55-B.Fiske). Play 3267 (1:45) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley up the middle to PHI 38 for 3 yards (90-T.Davis; 55-B.Fiske).
Q301:07 (1:07) 61-W.Lampkin reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 38 for no gain (53-N.Landman). Play 3294 (1:07) 61-W.Lampkin reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 38 for no gain (53-N.Landman).
Q300:59 (:59) 23-K.Williams left end pushed ob at PHI 30 for 8 yards (31-J.Jones). Play 3318 (:59) 23-K.Williams left end pushed ob at PHI 30 for 8 yards (31-J.Jones).
Q300:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left end pushed ob at PHI 23 for 7 yards (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on LA-12-P.Nacua, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 30 - No Play. Play 3345 (:33) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left end pushed ob at PHI 23 for 7 yards (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on LA-12-P.Nacua, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 30 - No Play.
Q300:03 (:03) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. Play 3383 (:03) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right.
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3406 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to PHI 36 for 9 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 3426 (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to PHI 36 for 9 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q414:16 (14:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. Play 3451 (14:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee.
Q414:11 (14:11) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby left guard to LA 45 for 19 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 3474 (14:11) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby left guard to LA 45 for 19 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q413:35 (13:35) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to LA 38 for 7 yards (1-E.Forbes). Play 3503 (13:35) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to LA 38 for 7 yards (1-E.Forbes).
Q412:57 (12:57) 8-T.Bigsby right tackle to LA 35 for 3 yards (0-B.Young). Play 3525 (12:57) 8-T.Bigsby right tackle to LA 35 for 3 yards (0-B.Young).
Q412:22 (12:22) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right end to LA 35 for no gain (3-K.Curl). Play 3552 (12:22) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right end to LA 35 for no gain (3-K.Curl).
Q411:40 (11:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left tackle to LA 21 for 14 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 3574 (11:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left tackle to LA 21 for 14 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q410:56 (10:56) 8-T.Bigsby right end pushed ob at LA 18 for 3 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 3596 (10:56) 8-T.Bigsby right end pushed ob at LA 18 for 3 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q410:20 (10:20) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley up the middle to LA 9 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens; 37-Q.Lake). Play 3623 (10:20) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley up the middle to LA 9 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens; 37-Q.Lake).
Q409:40 (9:40) 28-W.Shipley up the middle to LA 6 for 3 yards (91-K.Turner). Play 3645 (9:40) 28-W.Shipley up the middle to LA 6 for 3 yards (91-K.Turner).
Q408:57 (8:57) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right guard to LA 2 for 4 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 3667 (8:57) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right guard to LA 2 for 4 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q408:17 Timeout #1 by PHI at 08:17. Play 3701 Timeout #1 by PHI at 08:17.
Q408:17 (8:17) (Shotgun) 61-W.Lampkin and 76-M.Morris reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts right end to LA 2 for no gain (37-Q.Lake). Play 3689 (8:17) (Shotgun) 61-W.Lampkin and 76-M.Morris reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts right end to LA 2 for no gain (37-Q.Lake).
Q407:31 (7:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper. Play 3722 (7:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper.
Q407:26 (7:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 4 for 2 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 3745 (7:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 4 for 2 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q406:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 13 for 9 yards (54-J.Trotter; 24-A.Mukuba). Play 3777 (6:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 13 for 9 yards (54-J.Trotter; 24-A.Mukuba).
Q406:29 (6:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to LA 33 for 20 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 3802 (6:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to LA 33 for 20 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q406:02 (6:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 35 for 32 yards (2-T.Woolen) [97-M.Ojomo]. Penalty on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Play 3827 (6:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 35 for 32 yards (2-T.Woolen) [97-M.Ojomo]. Penalty on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q405:29 (5:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 87-D.Allen. Play 3863 (5:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 87-D.Allen.
Q405:25 (5:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 23-K.Williams. Play 3886 (5:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 23-K.Williams.
Q405:20 (5:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at PHI 26 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on PHI-31-J.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at PHI 26. Play 3909 (5:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at PHI 26 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on PHI-31-J.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at PHI 26.
Q404:57 (4:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to PHI 8 for 5 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 3950 (4:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to PHI 8 for 5 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q404:30 (4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to PHI 1 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 3975 (4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to PHI 1 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q404:06 (4:06) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams left guard to PHI 1 for no gain (24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on PHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 0 yards, enforced at PHI 1 - No Play. Penalty on PHI-58-J.Hunt, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 4116 (4:06) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams left guard to PHI 1 for no gain (24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on PHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 0 yards, enforced at PHI 1 - No Play. Penalty on PHI-58-J.Hunt, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q404:02 (4:02) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4067 (4:02) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:59 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 4090 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q403:59 92-H.Mevis kicks 60 yards from LA 35 to PHI 5, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-92-H.Mevis, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at PHI 40. Play 4105 92-H.Mevis kicks 60 yards from LA 35 to PHI 5, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-92-H.Mevis, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at PHI 40.
Q403:59 (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to PHI 41 for 1 yard (0-B.Young). PHI-8-T.Bigsby was injured during the play. Play 4155 (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to PHI 41 for 1 yard (0-B.Young). PHI-8-T.Bigsby was injured during the play.
Q403:18 (3:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 46 for 5 yards (47-W.Bailey; 53-N.Landman). Play 4192 (3:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 46 for 5 yards (47-W.Bailey; 53-N.Landman).
Q403:10 Timeout #1 by LA at 03:10. Play 4236 Timeout #1 by LA at 03:10.
Q403:10 (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz (3-K.Curl). Play 4224 (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz (3-K.Curl).
Q403:07 (3:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 46 - No Play. Play 4254 (3:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 46 - No Play.
Q403:07 (3:07) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 11 yards (7-K.Ringo; 42-S.Mondon). Play 4278 (3:07) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 11 yards (7-K.Ringo; 42-S.Mondon).
Q402:55 (2:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua (2-T.Woolen). PENALTY on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 21 - No Play. Play 4304 (2:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua (2-T.Woolen). PENALTY on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 21 - No Play.
Q402:52 (2:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 32 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 4338 (2:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 32 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q402:47 (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 48 for 16 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 4368 (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 48 for 16 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q402:26 (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at PHI 39 for 13 yards. Play 4393 (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at PHI 39 for 13 yards.
Q402:20 (2:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 8-T.Atwell to PHI 31 for 8 yards (31-J.Jones; 33-C.DeJean). Play 4423 (2:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 8-T.Atwell to PHI 31 for 8 yards (31-J.Jones; 33-C.DeJean).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 19 for 12 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 97-M.Ojomo). Play 4448 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 19 for 12 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 97-M.Ojomo).
Q401:37 (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams (31-J.Jones). Play 4480 (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams (31-J.Jones).
Q401:32 (1:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end pushed ob at PHI 11 for 8 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 4508 (1:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end pushed ob at PHI 11 for 8 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q401:24 (1:24) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 8 for 3 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 54-J.Trotter). Play 4536 (1:24) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 8 for 3 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 54-J.Trotter).
Q401:22 Timeout #2 by PHI at 01:22. Play 4576 Timeout #2 by PHI at 01:22.
Q401:22 (1:22) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 7 for 1 yard (35-M.Carter; 24-A.Mukuba). Play 4564 (1:22) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 7 for 1 yard (35-M.Carter; 24-A.Mukuba).
Q401:17 Timeout #3 by PHI at 01:17. Play 4605 Timeout #3 by PHI at 01:17.
Q401:17 (1:17) 23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4593 (1:17) 23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:10 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 4623 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q401:10 92-H.Mevis kicks 59 yards from LA 35 to PHI 6. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 27 for 21 yards (44-G.Stuard). Play 4638 92-H.Mevis kicks 59 yards from LA 35 to PHI 6. 28-W.Shipley to PHI 27 for 21 yards (44-G.Stuard).
Q401:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 20 for -7 yards (0-B.Young). Play 4661 (1:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 20 for -7 yards (0-B.Young).
Q400:42 (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Cooper. Play 4681 (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Cooper.
Q400:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 12 for -8 yards (0-B.Young). FUMBLES (0-B.Young) [0-B.Young], recovered by PHI-72-M.Bell at PHI 12. Play 4704 (:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 12 for -8 yards (0-B.Young). FUMBLES (0-B.Young) [0-B.Young], recovered by PHI-72-M.Bell at PHI 12.
Q400:15 (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Cooper. Play 4741 (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Cooper.
Q400:04 (:04) 9-M.Stafford kneels to PHI 13 for -1 yards. Play 4764 (:04) 9-M.Stafford kneels to PHI 13 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 172
Half seconds remaining 172
Quarter seconds remaining 172
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -0.55 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 75
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 172
Half seconds remaining 172
Quarter seconds remaining 172
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 79
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 172
Half seconds remaining 172
Quarter seconds remaining 172
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:15 Penalty · PHI (7:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Jurgens, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -2.78 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 14
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2235
Half seconds remaining 435
Quarter seconds remaining 435
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2235
Half seconds remaining 435
Quarter seconds remaining 435
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -0.58 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 14
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2235
Half seconds remaining 435
Quarter seconds remaining 435
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2235
Half seconds remaining 435
Quarter seconds remaining 435
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q208:49 Fourth down · LA (8:49) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 16 yards (36-M.Pulley; 53-N.Landman). + Fourth down decision cost LA 2.44 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.8526047071529437
Yardline 100 65
Elapsed share 0.3530555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2329
Half seconds remaining 529
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5449012141517471 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54490/ NA/0.52046 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:07 Penalty · PHI (3:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -1.76 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 187
Half seconds remaining 187
Quarter seconds remaining 187
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 4
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 187
Half seconds remaining 187
Quarter seconds remaining 187
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -0.35 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 187
Half seconds remaining 187
Quarter seconds remaining 187
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 4
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 187
Half seconds remaining 187
Quarter seconds remaining 187
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:20 Fourth down · LA (13:20) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0.87 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.4238616633731541
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.5277777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1700
Half seconds remaining 1700
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 800
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.256125844903969 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25613/ NA/0.24742 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:25 Fourth down · PHI (13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 15 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -3.149385684232143
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.02638888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3505
Half seconds remaining 1705
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 805
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3235589591085988 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29793/ NA/0.32356 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:12 Kick · LA (2:12) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -1.490974055900457
Yardline 100 22
Elapsed share 0.2133333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2832
Half seconds remaining 1032
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 132
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.569369944544878 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55690/0.56937/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LA -2.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q214:53 Fourth down · PHI (14:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to LA 34 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -1.277602392690146
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.2519444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2693
Half seconds remaining 893
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 893
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3843429045642848 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38434/0.32624/0.37407 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:08 Fourth down · PHI (7:08) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to LA 7, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.7620969686473384
Yardline 100 53
Elapsed share 0.3811111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2228
Half seconds remaining 428
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 428
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4552968411819475 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41330/ NA/0.45530 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:08 Fourth down · PHI (1:08) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 21, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.5108488751073051
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.4811111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1868
Half seconds remaining 68
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 68
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4869993626682211 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.40030/ NA/0.48700 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:58 Fourth down · PHI (11:58) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 40 for 3 yards (80-D.Cooper). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.3869502087746007
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.5505555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1618
Half seconds remaining 1618
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 718
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7115598046941867 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68816/ NA/0.71156 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:40 Fourth down · LA (10:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to PHI 47 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell). + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.3548266493735326
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.5722222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1540
Half seconds remaining 1540
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 640
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2802719779619371 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28027/0.18306/0.23387 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 34 recorded events Q303:21 Fourth down · LA (3:21) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to PHI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 2 yards (33-D.Connors; 36-M.Pulley). + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 18
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.2178597660525892
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.6941666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1101
Half seconds remaining 1101
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 201
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1881010997642749 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15166/ NA/0.18810 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:07 Fourth down · PHI (1:07) 61-W.Lampkin reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 38 for no gain (53-N.Landman). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.1877221026626949
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.7313888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q414:16 Fourth down · LA (14:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.1659405113204178
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.7622222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q407:31 Fourth down · PHI (7:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.10580834151241
Yardline 100 2
Elapsed share 0.8747222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q403:07 Fourth down · PHI (3:07) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 11 yards (7-K.Ringo; 42-S.Mondon). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.07890905803504204
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.9480555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q112:09 Penalty · LA (12:09) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua. PENALTY on PHI-52-J.Greenard, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q111:48 Fumble · PHI (11:48) 26-S.Barkley left end to LA 22 for 6 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at LA 22. PHI-26-S.Barkley was injured during the play. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q108:42 Kick · PHI (8:42) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 2.04 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -2.299663869352699
Yardline 100 11
Elapsed share 0.105
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q103:14 Penalty · LA (3:14) 23-K.Williams left tackle to PHI 12 for 4 yards (33-C.DeJean; 17-A.Ebiketie). PENALTY on LA-87-D.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:56 Penalty · PHI (12:56) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to LA 5 for 19 yards (53-N.Landman; 5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:02 Kick · PHI (11:02) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0.17 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 24
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.9883864875955146
Yardline 100 38
Elapsed share 0.3161111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q208:36 Penalty · PHI (8:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 36 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake) [97-P.Ford]. PENALTY on LA-53-N.Landman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 36. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:42 Fourth down · LA (6:42) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to PHI 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at LA 17 for 41 yards (48-O.Speights). + Fourth down decision cost LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:44 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q201:55 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q201:31 Penalty · PHI (1:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 44 for 4 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:17 Penalty · PHI (1:17) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to LA 17, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 18 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo). LA-1-E.Forbes was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-7-K.Ringo, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:42 Penalty · LA (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 19 for -4 yards (3-N.Smith). PENALTY on PHI-27-Q.Mitchell, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LA 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:14 Penalty · PHI (:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks (22-T.McDuffie). PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LA 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:09 Fourth down · PHI (:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, declined. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:03 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q307:20 Kick · LA (7:20) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Fourth down decision cost LA 2.32 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team PHI
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.2841229697050353
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.6277777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q306:32 Penalty · PHI (6:32) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 23 yards (42-S.Mondon). PENALTY on LA-88-J.Whittington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:01 Penalty · LA (5:01) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 47 for 23 yards (54-J.Trotter). PHI-33-C.DeJean was injured during the play. PENALTY on LA, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 47. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:59 Penalty · LA (3:59) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 42 for 24 yards (35-M.Carter; 31-J.Jones). PENALTY on LA-12-P.Nacua, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q300:33 Penalty · LA (:33) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left end pushed ob at PHI 23 for 7 yards (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on LA-12-P.Nacua, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:02 Fourth down · LA (6:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 35 for 32 yards (2-T.Woolen) [97-M.Ojomo]. Penalty on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q405:20 Penalty · LA (5:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at PHI 26 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on PHI-31-J.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at PHI 26. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:06 Penalty · LA (4:06) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams left guard to PHI 1 for no gain (24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on PHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 0 yards, enforced at PHI 1 - No Play. Penalty on PHI-58-J.Hunt, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:59 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q403:59 Penalty · PHI 92-H.Mevis kicks 60 yards from LA 35 to PHI 5, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-92-H.Mevis, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at PHI 40. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:10 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q400:38 Fumble · PHI (:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 12 for -8 yards (0-B.Young). FUMBLES (0-B.Young) [0-B.Young], recovered by PHI-72-M.Bell at PHI 12. + Fumble recoveries above expectation PHI 0.59 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LA -0.59 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:15 Fourth down · PHI (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Cooper. + Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 013df7f410220dc8fcbfb3a83a8971c9a8b824912e55bdd90080e061e8514f5fModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: e8426ed6fe3e36ff4af6708cd45c505ceb9fc33e42d31c8ff6af1a4a233d3147
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 16 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 7:29 AM UTC Version 15 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 9, 2026, 1:31 AM UTC Version 14 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 8, 2026, 7:28 PM UTC Version 13 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 8, 2026, 1:35 AM UTC Version 12 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 7, 2026, 7:48 PM UTC Version 11 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 6, 2026, 7:44 PM UTC Version 10 ↗ Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 1:54 PM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 7:43 AM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 6, 2026, 2:03 AM UTC Version 7 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 10:48 PM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 8:32 PM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Oct 5, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 7:29 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 5, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 4, 2026, 11:21 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 9:44 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining 967
Half seconds remaining 967
Quarter seconds remaining 67
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8004434859822763 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80044/ NA/0.79279 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-10
Game seconds remaining 856
Half seconds remaining 856
Quarter seconds remaining 856
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.19409789931406 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19410/0.17780/0.15874 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
10
Game seconds remaining 451
Half seconds remaining 451
Quarter seconds remaining 451
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9430781083292763 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94308/0.92596/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
3
Game seconds remaining 187
Half seconds remaining 187
Quarter seconds remaining 187
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6736456753476522 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59623/ NA/0.67365 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 3222
Half seconds remaining 1422
Quarter seconds remaining 522
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4108826835486138 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.41088/0.39053/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PHI 1.11 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 2462
Half seconds remaining 662
Quarter seconds remaining 662
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3929166648303411 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35994/0.39123/0.39292 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PHI 1.11 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-10
Game seconds remaining 1340
Half seconds remaining 1340
Quarter seconds remaining 440
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2665722846396133 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26657/0.24341/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LA -2.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled