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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: MIN by 14.5; actual result: MIN by 5.
The 9.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 220 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 81.15%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty count: 20 versus 12.8 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 171 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 66.15%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: MIN by 10.0; actual result: MIN by 5. The difference was 5 points.
5,039 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Minnesota Vikings by 10
Final margin Minnesota Vikings by 5
Difference 5 points
Miami Dolphins covered the spread.
5,039 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (69.3%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score MIN by 14.5
Actual final margin MIN by 5
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Minnesota Vikings chance to win during the game 139 preplay estimates across 161 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 22 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 3 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 05:50 Recorded game event
Miami Dolphins · Play 1684 (5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 9.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:41 Recorded game event
Minnesota Vikings · Play 3817 (3:41) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. PENALTY on MIN-78-C.Tiernan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 40 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.5 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:17 Recorded game event
Minnesota Vikings · Play 3896 (2:17) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 15 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 161 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 161 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 47-R.Patterson kicks 64 yards from MIA 35 to MIN 1. 4-M.Price to MIN 48 for 47 yards (16-M.Taaffe). Play 39 47-R.Patterson kicks 64 yards from MIA 35 to MIN 1. 4-M.Price to MIN 48 for 47 yards (16-M.Taaffe).
Q114:52 (14:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (92-Z.Sieler). Play 62 (14:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
Q114:27 (14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 42 for 2 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks). Play 82 (14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 42 for 2 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).
Q113:55 (13:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Dallas to MIA 48 for 10 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 39 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q309:06 Penalty · MIN (9:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 14-J.Jennings. PENALTY on MIA-8-J.Brents, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN 2.33 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1441
Half seconds remaining 1441
Quarter seconds remaining 541
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1cc443d2167df1241f78d8ad97cdbb61ccc44dbec518ec76e09f6fcf2b418aafThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
220 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 171 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Adrian Hill Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.8 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 50.8 yd per game. Away teams: 6.7 / 54.9 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Adrian Hill; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Minnesota Vikings · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Minnesota Vikings · Opponent penalties Opponent MIA was charged 9 penalties for 55 yards.
Miami Dolphins · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Miami Dolphins · Opponent penalties Opponent MIN was charged 11 penalties for 85 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 139 model estimates across 161 recorded game entries.
22 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (161 entries) 0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Ruling expected points consequence -0.43 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence -2.04 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Ruling expected points consequence -0.46 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence -1.04 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Ruling expected points consequence -0.5 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence 1.99 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Ruling expected points consequence 0.73 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence 2.33 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Ruling expected points consequence 1.05 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence -1.54 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Ruling expected points consequence -0.58 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
MIN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19084/ NA/0.22037 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77388/0.77994/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18083/ NA/0.19620 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74233/ NA/0.78234 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIA Fourth down decision cost 0.6 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16426/ NA/0.15822 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80913/0.81173/0.79771 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85041/0.83362/0.85610 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.12005/ NA/0.12186 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08537/0.08886/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88597/0.90499/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.06028/ NA/0.06225 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.90787/ NA/0.92545 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80837/0.78983/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81599/0.81635/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
MIN Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.45 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 55th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
MIA Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.45 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 55th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
MIN Field goal points above expectation 1.56 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
MIA Field goal points above expectation 0.03 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
MIN Extra point points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 30 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
MIA Extra point points above expectation 0.03 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 30 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
MIN Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 161 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
MIA Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 161 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
MIN Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIN Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.34 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
79 of 79 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 79 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIN Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.22 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
19 of 19 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 19 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIN Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.24 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
19 of 19 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 19 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIA Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.19 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 41 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIA Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.27 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 41 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIA Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.38 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIA Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.63 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Estimated chance to win moved 0.9 percentage points across this play.
Play 104
(13:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Dallas to MIA 48 for 10 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks).
Q113:00 (13:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-25-J.Wood, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20. Play 129 (13:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-25-J.Wood, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.
Q112:50 (12:50) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 89-W.Kacmarek to MIA 25 for 15 yards (51-B.Cashman). Play 173 (12:50) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 89-W.Kacmarek to MIA 25 for 15 yards (51-B.Cashman).
Q112:20 (12:20) 5-J.Wright up the middle to MIA 27 for 2 yards (61-J.Redmond). Play 198 (12:20) 5-J.Wright up the middle to MIA 27 for 2 yards (61-J.Redmond).
Q111:48 (11:48) 5-J.Wright left end to MIA 26 for -1 yards (17-K.Van Noy, 43-A.Van Ginkel). Play 220 (11:48) 5-J.Wright left end to MIA 26 for -1 yards (17-K.Van Noy, 43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q111:08 (11:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to 18-C.Bell. Play 242 (11:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to 18-C.Bell.
Q111:04 (11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller). Play 265 (11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller).
Q110:51 (10:51) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIA 33 for 5 yards (94-J.Phillips; 10-J.Rodriguez). PENALTY on MIA-44-C.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 38 - No Play. Play 296 (10:51) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIA 33 for 5 yards (94-J.Phillips; 10-J.Rodriguez). PENALTY on MIA-44-C.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 38 - No Play.
Q110:30 (10:30) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to MIA 25 for 8 yards (11-D.Trader). Play 349 (10:30) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to MIA 25 for 8 yards (11-D.Trader).
Q109:48 (9:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 33-A.Jones. Play 371 (9:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 33-A.Jones.
Q109:44 (9:44) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIA 21 for 4 yards (93-Z.Biggers). PENALTY on MIN-74-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 23. Play 394 (9:44) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIA 21 for 4 yards (93-Z.Biggers). PENALTY on MIN-74-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 23.
Q109:30 (9:30) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 33 - No Play. Play 427 (9:30) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 33 - No Play.
Q109:19 (9:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 14-J.Jennings to MIA 30 for 8 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 451 (9:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 14-J.Jennings to MIA 30 for 8 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q108:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to MIA 29 for 1 yard (8-J.Brents; 10-J.Rodriguez). Play 476 (8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to MIA 29 for 1 yard (8-J.Brents; 10-J.Rodriguez).
Q107:57 (7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. Play 501 (7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q107:54 16-W.Reichard kicks 64 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 1. 5-J.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 2. 5-J.Wright to MIA 23 for 21 yards (24-J.Ward; 82-J.Jones). PENALTY on MIA-59-R.McGraw, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 23. Play 521 16-W.Reichard kicks 64 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 1. 5-J.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 2. 5-J.Wright to MIA 23 for 21 yards (24-J.Ward; 82-J.Jones). PENALTY on MIA-59-R.McGraw, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 23.
Q107:49 (7:49) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 21-K.Coleman pushed ob at MIA 21 for 3 yards (44-J.Metellus). Play 556 (7:49) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 21-K.Coleman pushed ob at MIA 21 for 3 yards (44-J.Metellus).
Q107:18 (7:18) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 33 for 12 yards (26-T.Jackson; 51-B.Cashman). Play 593 (7:18) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 33 for 12 yards (26-T.Jackson; 51-B.Cashman).
Q106:38 (6:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 0-O.Gordon to MIA 33 for no gain (41-J.Golday) [15-D.Turner]. Play 615 (6:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 0-O.Gordon to MIA 33 for no gain (41-J.Golday) [15-D.Turner].
Q105:55 (5:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 0-O.Gordon pushed ob at MIA 33 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson). Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 640 (5:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 0-O.Gordon pushed ob at MIA 33 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson). Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q105:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 33 - No Play. Play 681 (5:30) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 33 - No Play.
Q105:13 (5:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles up the middle to MIA 46 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus; 22-H.Smith). Play 705 (5:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles up the middle to MIA 46 for 8 yards (44-J.Metellus; 22-H.Smith).
Q104:26 (4:26) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to 21-K.Coleman (44-J.Metellus) [51-B.Cashman]. Play 727 (4:26) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to 21-K.Coleman (44-J.Metellus) [51-B.Cashman].
Q104:20 (4:20) 5-J.Wright left end pushed ob at MIA 46 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 2-I.Rodgers). PENALTY on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play. Play 750 (4:20) 5-J.Wright left end pushed ob at MIA 46 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 2-I.Rodgers). PENALTY on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play.
Q103:56 (3:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 6-M.Washington pushed ob at MIN 48 for 16 yards (15-D.Turner). Play 783 (3:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 6-M.Washington pushed ob at MIN 48 for 16 yards (15-D.Turner).
Q103:27 (3:27) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 44 for -8 yards (15-D.Turner). Play 808 (3:27) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 44 for -8 yards (15-D.Turner).
Q102:50 (2:50) 48-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-46-T.Addington. ** Injury Update: MIA-42-J.Woodard has returned to the game. Play 828 (2:50) 48-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-46-T.Addington. ** Injury Update: MIA-42-J.Woodard has returned to the game.
Q102:39 (2:39) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 25 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 853 (2:39) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 25 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q102:07 (2:07) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left end to MIN 29 for 4 yards (90-M.Herring; 20-J.Brooks). Play 887 (2:07) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left end to MIN 29 for 4 yards (90-M.Herring; 20-J.Brooks).
Q101:23 (1:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 3-J.Addison to MIN 31 for 2 yards (3-C.Johnson). The first down was assisted by replay. Play 909 (1:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 3-J.Addison to MIN 31 for 2 yards (3-C.Johnson). The first down was assisted by replay.
Q100:56 (:56) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to MIA 48 for 21 yards (3-C.Johnson; 4-J.Marshall). PENALTY on MIN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 31 - No Play. Play 936 (:56) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to MIA 48 for 21 yards (3-C.Johnson; 4-J.Marshall). PENALTY on MIN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 31 - No Play.
Q100:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 30 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 16-M.Taaffe). Play 972 (:33) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 30 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 16-M.Taaffe).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 994 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones (20-J.Brooks) [93-Z.Biggers]. Play 1014 (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones (20-J.Brooks) [93-Z.Biggers].
Q214:56 (14:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-J.Uche). Play 1061 (14:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-J.Uche).
Q214:15 (14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn). Play 1081 (14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn).
Q214:06 (14:06) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIA 29 for 3 yards (0-I.Pace; 55-E.Wilson). Play 1107 (14:06) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIA 29 for 3 yards (0-I.Pace; 55-E.Wilson).
Q213:24 Timeout #1 by MIA at 13:24. Play 1148 Timeout #1 by MIA at 13:24.
Q213:24 (13:24) 6-M.Washington right end to MIA 32 for 3 yards (51-B.Cashman; 44-J.Metellus). Play 1136 (13:24) 6-M.Washington right end to MIA 32 for 3 yards (51-B.Cashman; 44-J.Metellus).
Q212:40 (12:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Bell. PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, Illegal Touch Pass, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 32. Play 1166 (12:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Bell. PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, Illegal Touch Pass, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 32.
Q212:26 (12:26) 48-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price to MIN 18 for 3 yards (35-R.Taylor; 32-J.Simpson). Play 1198 (12:26) 48-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price to MIN 18 for 3 yards (35-R.Taylor; 32-J.Simpson).
Q212:15 (12:15) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 22 for 4 yards (93-Z.Biggers; 20-J.Brooks). Play 1229 (12:15) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 22 for 4 yards (93-Z.Biggers; 20-J.Brooks).
Q211:51 (11:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 23 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 9-J.Uche). PENALTY on MIA-90-M.Herring, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 22 - No Play. Play 1269 (11:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 23 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 9-J.Uche). PENALTY on MIA-90-M.Herring, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 22 - No Play.
Q211:21 (11:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIN 28 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks). PENALTY on MIN-3-J.Addison, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 27 - No Play. Play 1302 (11:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIN 28 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks). PENALTY on MIN-3-J.Addison, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 27 - No Play.
Q210:53 (10:53) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-G.Bartholomew to MIN 26 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 1338 (10:53) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-G.Bartholomew to MIN 26 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q210:15 (10:15) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to MIN 41 for 15 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson). Play 1363 (10:15) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to MIN 41 for 15 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson).
Q209:45 (9:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 41 - No Play. Play 1388 (9:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 41 - No Play.
Q209:25 (9:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right [59-R.McGraw]. Play 1412 (9:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right [59-R.McGraw].
Q209:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 49 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader). Play 1435 (9:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 49 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader).
Q208:50 (8:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIA 34 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader). Play 1460 (8:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIA 34 for 15 yards (11-D.Trader).
Q208:06 (8:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 33-A.Jones [44-C.Robinson]. Play 1482 (8:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 33-A.Jones [44-C.Robinson].
Q208:01 (8:01) (Shotgun) 4-M.Price left end to MIA 32 for 2 yards (16-M.Taaffe). Play 1505 (8:01) (Shotgun) 4-M.Price left end to MIA 32 for 2 yards (16-M.Taaffe).
Q207:19 (7:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle [44-C.Robinson]. Play 1527 (7:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle [44-C.Robinson].
Q207:13 (7:13) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. Play 1550 (7:13) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q207:08 16-W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 0. 5-J.Wright pushed ob at MIA 28 for 28 yards (41-J.Golday). Play 1570 16-W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 0. 5-J.Wright pushed ob at MIA 28 for 28 yards (41-J.Golday).
Q207:04 (7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at MIA 31 for 3 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-97-D.Orange, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 31. Play 1605 (7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at MIA 31 for 3 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-97-D.Orange, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 31.
Q206:46 (6:46) PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play. Play 1638 (6:46) PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play.
Q206:25 (6:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright right guard to MIA 48 for 7 yards (44-J.Metellus). Play 1662 (6:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright right guard to MIA 48 for 7 yards (44-J.Metellus).
Q205:50 (5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50. Play 1684 (5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.
Q205:45 (5:45) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (59-R.McGraw). MIN-71-C.Darrisaw was injured during the play. Play 1707 (5:45) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (59-R.McGraw). MIN-71-C.Darrisaw was injured during the play.
Q205:09 (5:09) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones. Play 1784 (5:09) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones.
Q205:06 (5:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Addison. Play 1814 (5:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Addison.
Q205:01 (5:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. Play 1837 (5:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
Q204:55 (4:55) 5-J.Wright right tackle to MIA 30 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus). Play 1856 (4:55) 5-J.Wright right tackle to MIA 30 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus).
Q204:12 (4:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end ran ob at MIA 41 for 11 yards (44-J.Metellus). PENALTY on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30 - No Play. Play 1878 (4:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end ran ob at MIA 41 for 11 yards (44-J.Metellus). PENALTY on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30 - No Play.
Q203:46 (3:46) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 6-M.Washington to MIA 31 for 11 yards (61-J.Redmond). Play 1911 (3:46) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 6-M.Washington to MIA 31 for 11 yards (61-J.Redmond).
Q202:59 (2:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (90-T.Ingram-Dawkins). Play 1936 (2:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (90-T.Ingram-Dawkins).
Q202:53 (2:53) 48-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-0-O.Gordon. MIA-35-R.Taylor was injured during the play. The penalty was assisted by replay. Play 1959 (2:53) 48-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-0-O.Gordon. MIA-35-R.Taylor was injured during the play. The penalty was assisted by replay.
Q202:43 (2:43) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to MIN 43 for 19 yards (8-J.Brents). Play 2000 (2:43) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to MIN 43 for 19 yards (8-J.Brents).
Q202:04 (2:04) (Shotgun) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray left end to MIN 49 for 6 yards (8-J.Brents; 16-M.Taaffe). Play 2035 (2:04) (Shotgun) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray left end to MIN 49 for 6 yards (8-J.Brents; 16-M.Taaffe).
Q201:59 (1:59) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIA 48 for 3 yards (93-Z.Biggers). Play 2063 (1:59) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIA 48 for 3 yards (93-Z.Biggers).
Q201:26 (1:26) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 46 for 2 yards (23-Z.Anderson). Play 2095 (1:26) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 46 for 2 yards (23-Z.Anderson).
Q200:55 (:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 26 for 20 yards (23-Z.Anderson). Play 2117 (:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 26 for 20 yards (23-Z.Anderson).
Q200:46 Timeout #1 by MIN at 00:46. Play 2154 Timeout #1 by MIN at 00:46.
Q200:46 (:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIA 33 for -7 yards (92-Z.Sieler). Play 2142 (:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIA 33 for -7 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
Q200:40 Timeout #2 by MIN at 00:40. Play 2186 Timeout #2 by MIN at 00:40.
Q200:40 (:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 13-T.Felton to MIA 19 for 14 yards (23-Z.Anderson). Play 2174 (:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 13-T.Felton to MIA 19 for 14 yards (23-Z.Anderson).
Q200:16 (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 4 yards (20-J.Brooks; 10-J.Rodriguez). Play 2206 (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 4 yards (20-J.Brooks; 10-J.Rodriguez).
Q200:10 Timeout #3 by MIN at 00:10. Play 2243 Timeout #3 by MIN at 00:10.
Q200:10 (:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left. Play 2231 (:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left.
Q200:04 (:04) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. Play 2261 (:04) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2281 Q315:00 16-W.Reichard kicks 58 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 7. 5-J.Wright to MIA 31 for 24 yards (32-C.Chambliss). Play 2299 16-W.Reichard kicks 58 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 7. 5-J.Wright to MIA 31 for 24 yards (32-C.Chambliss).
Q314:55 (14:55) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 89-W.Kacmarek. Play 2322 (14:55) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 89-W.Kacmarek.
Q314:50 (14:50) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson). Play 2350 (14:50) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson).
Q314:08 (14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith). Play 2372 (14:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).
Q313:28 (13:28) 77-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 0-O.Gordon right tackle to MIN 9 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman). Play 2394 (13:28) 77-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 0-O.Gordon right tackle to MIN 9 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman).
Q312:48 (12:48) 6-M.Washington left end to MIN 9 for no gain (43-A.Van Ginkel). Play 2418 (12:48) 6-M.Washington left end to MIN 9 for no gain (43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q312:06 (12:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (2-I.Rodgers). Play 2440 (12:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (2-I.Rodgers).
Q311:58 (11:58) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. Play 2463 (11:58) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
Q311:56 47-R.Patterson kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the MIN 35. Play 2483 47-R.Patterson kicks 65 yards from MIA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the MIN 35.
Q311:56 (11:56) (Shotgun) 21-D.Claiborne left end to MIN 36 for 1 yard (92-Z.Sieler). ** Injury Update: MIN-71-C.Darrisaw has returned to the game. Play 2512 (11:56) (Shotgun) 21-D.Claiborne left end to MIN 36 for 1 yard (92-Z.Sieler). ** Injury Update: MIN-71-C.Darrisaw has returned to the game.
Q311:30 (11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 42 for 6 yards (20-J.Brooks). Play 2534 (11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 42 for 6 yards (20-J.Brooks).
Q310:54 (10:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson pushed ob at MIN 46 for 4 yards (16-M.Taaffe). Play 2562 (10:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson pushed ob at MIN 46 for 4 yards (16-M.Taaffe).
Q310:22 (10:22) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right. Play 2592 (10:22) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right.
Q310:13 (10:13) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end pushed ob at MIA 35 for 19 yards (20-J.Brooks). Play 2617 (10:13) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end pushed ob at MIA 35 for 19 yards (20-J.Brooks).
Q309:42 (9:42) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIA 27 for 8 yards (90-M.Herring). Play 2644 (9:42) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIA 27 for 8 yards (90-M.Herring).
Q309:06 (9:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 14-J.Jennings. PENALTY on MIA-8-J.Brents, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 27 - No Play. Play 2666 (9:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 14-J.Jennings. PENALTY on MIA-8-J.Brents, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 27 - No Play.
Q309:01 (9:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 21-D.Claiborne to MIA 23 for -1 yards (3-C.Johnson). PENALTY on MIN-14-J.Jennings, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22 - No Play. Play 2700 (9:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 21-D.Claiborne to MIA 23 for -1 yards (3-C.Johnson). PENALTY on MIN-14-J.Jennings, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22 - No Play.
Q308:30 (8:30) (Shotgun) 21-D.Claiborne left guard to MIA 29 for 3 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 2736 (8:30) (Shotgun) 21-D.Claiborne left guard to MIA 29 for 3 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q308:01 (8:01) (No Huddle) 3-J.Addison left end to MIA 30 for -1 yards (4-J.Marshall, 9-J.Uche). Play 2758 (8:01) (No Huddle) 3-J.Addison left end to MIA 30 for -1 yards (4-J.Marshall, 9-J.Uche).
Q307:18 (7:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end pushed ob at MIA 23 for 7 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 2780 (7:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end pushed ob at MIA 23 for 7 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q306:38 (6:38) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. Play 2807 (6:38) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q306:35 16-W.Reichard kicks 55 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 10. 5-J.Wright to MIA 33 for 23 yards (0-I.Pace; 32-C.Chambliss). Play 2827 16-W.Reichard kicks 55 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 10. 5-J.Wright to MIA 33 for 23 yards (0-I.Pace; 32-C.Chambliss).
Q306:30 (6:30) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 6-M.Washington to MIA 39 for 6 yards (51-B.Cashman; 95-C.Banks). Play 2857 (6:30) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 6-M.Washington to MIA 39 for 6 yards (51-B.Cashman; 95-C.Banks).
Q305:45 (5:45) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIA 41 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman). Play 2882 (5:45) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIA 41 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman).
Q304:57 (4:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left guard to MIA 38 for -3 yards (17-K.Van Noy). Play 2904 (4:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left guard to MIA 38 for -3 yards (17-K.Van Noy).
Q304:21 (4:21) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 26 for 12 yards (1-J.Tolbert). Play 2926 (4:21) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 26 for 12 yards (1-J.Tolbert).
Q304:11 (4:11) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 30 for 4 yards (44-C.Robinson). ** Injury Update: MIA-11-D.Trader has returned to the game. Play 2957 (4:11) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 30 for 4 yards (44-C.Robinson). ** Injury Update: MIA-11-D.Trader has returned to the game.
Q303:28 (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 35 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks). Play 2986 (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 35 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks).
Q302:43 (2:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 24 for -11 yards (44-C.Robinson). Play 3014 (2:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at MIN 24 for -11 yards (44-C.Robinson).
Q302:00 (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to MIA 45, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. Play 3034 (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to MIA 45, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
Q301:52 (1:52) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 6-M.Washington ran ob at MIN 38 for 17 yards. Play 3053 (1:52) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 6-M.Washington ran ob at MIN 38 for 17 yards.
Q301:23 (1:23) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIN 29 for 9 yards (26-T.Jackson). Play 3085 (1:23) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIN 29 for 9 yards (26-T.Jackson).
Q300:47 (:47) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 6-M.Washington ran ob at MIN 12 for 17 yards. Play 3107 (:47) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 6-M.Washington ran ob at MIN 12 for 17 yards.
Q300:15 (:15) 0-O.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3132 (:15) 0-O.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q300:11 47-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. Play 3150 47-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
Q300:11 47-R.Patterson kicks 59 yards from MIA 35 to MIN 6. 4-M.Price to MIN 29 for 23 yards (59-R.McGraw; 42-J.Woodard). Play 3165 47-R.Patterson kicks 59 yards from MIA 35 to MIN 6. 4-M.Price to MIN 29 for 23 yards (59-R.McGraw; 42-J.Woodard).
Q300:05 (:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 37 for 8 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 3188 (:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 37 for 8 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3213 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 37 for no gain (94-J.Phillips). Play 3233 (15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 37 for no gain (94-J.Phillips).
Q414:18 (14:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 43 for 6 yards (3-C.Johnson; 10-J.Rodriguez). Play 3255 (14:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 43 for 6 yards (3-C.Johnson; 10-J.Rodriguez).
Q413:39 (13:39) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 45 for 2 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 11-D.Trader). Play 3280 (13:39) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 33-A.Jones left guard to MIN 45 for 2 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 11-D.Trader).
Q412:58 (12:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 47 for 2 yards (20-J.Brooks). Play 3304 (12:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 47 for 2 yards (20-J.Brooks).
Q412:21 (12:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 39 for 14 yards (4-J.Marshall). Play 3329 (12:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 39 for 14 yards (4-J.Marshall).
Q411:40 (11:40) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison. Play 3354 (11:40) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison.
Q411:35 (11:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 3-J.Addison to MIA 35 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 3383 (11:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 3-J.Addison to MIA 35 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q410:53 (10:53) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to MIA 30 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 3408 (10:53) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to MIA 30 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q410:08 (10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks). Play 3433 (10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).
Q409:25 (9:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 33-A.Jones to MIA 16 for 11 yards (8-J.Brents; 10-J.Rodriguez). Play 3455 (9:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 33-A.Jones to MIA 16 for 11 yards (8-J.Brents; 10-J.Rodriguez).
Q408:47 (8:47) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIA 19 for -3 yards (90-M.Herring). Play 3480 (8:47) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIA 19 for -3 yards (90-M.Herring).
Q408:12 (8:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to MIA 14 for 5 yards (20-J.Brooks). Play 3502 (8:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to MIA 14 for 5 yards (20-J.Brooks).
Q407:28 (7:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to MIA 11 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche). FUMBLES (9-J.Uche), ball out of bounds at MIA 9. Play 3527 (7:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to MIA 11 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche). FUMBLES (9-J.Uche), ball out of bounds at MIA 9.
Q406:43 (6:43) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. Play 3556 (6:43) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q406:41 16-W.Reichard kicks 51 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 14. 5-J.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 17. 5-J.Wright to MIA 18 for 1 yard (24-J.Ward). Play 3576 16-W.Reichard kicks 51 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 14. 5-J.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 17. 5-J.Wright to MIA 18 for 1 yard (24-J.Ward).
Q406:39 (6:39) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 20 for 2 yards (55-E.Wilson; 61-J.Redmond). Play 3610 (6:39) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 20 for 2 yards (55-E.Wilson; 61-J.Redmond).
Q405:59 (5:59) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Tolbert. Play 3632 (5:59) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Tolbert.
Q405:54 Timeout #1 by MIA at 05:54. Play 3687 Timeout #1 by MIA at 05:54.
Q405:54 (5:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep middle to 18-C.Bell (22-H.Smith). Play 3694 (5:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep middle to 18-C.Bell (22-H.Smith).
Q405:48 (5:48) 48-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-82-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 34. Play 3717 (5:48) 48-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-82-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 34.
Q405:41 (5:41) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 33 for 14 yards (8-J.Brents; 11-D.Trader). Play 3748 (5:41) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 33 for 14 yards (8-J.Brents; 11-D.Trader).
Q405:02 (5:02) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 33 for no gain (9-J.Uche; 93-Z.Biggers). Play 3770 (5:02) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 33 for no gain (9-J.Uche; 93-Z.Biggers).
Q404:22 (4:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (3-C.Johnson; 8-J.Brents). Play 3792 (4:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (3-C.Johnson; 8-J.Brents).
Q403:41 (3:41) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. PENALTY on MIN-78-C.Tiernan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 40 - No Play. Play 3817 (3:41) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. PENALTY on MIN-78-C.Tiernan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 40 - No Play.
Q403:41 (3:41) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 21-D.Claiborne right end to MIA 37 for 8 yards (20-J.Brooks; 3-C.Johnson). Play 3843 (3:41) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. 21-D.Claiborne right end to MIA 37 for 8 yards (20-J.Brooks; 3-C.Johnson).
Q403:01 (3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 22 yards (20-J.Brooks). Play 3871 (3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 22 yards (20-J.Brooks).
Q402:17 (2:17) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 15 - No Play. Play 3896 (2:17) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 15 - No Play.
Q402:17 Timeout #1 by MIN at 02:17. Play 3932 Timeout #1 by MIN at 02:17.
Q402:17 (2:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez). Play 3920 (2:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 5 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
Q402:12 Timeout #2 by MIA at 02:12. Play 3964 Timeout #2 by MIA at 02:12.
Q402:12 (2:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 10 for 5 yards (40-W.Gay). Play 3952 (2:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 10 for 5 yards (40-W.Gay).
Q402:07 Timeout #3 by MIA at 02:07. Play 3993 Timeout #3 by MIA at 02:07.
Q402:07 (2:07) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 2 for 8 yards (16-M.Taaffe). Play 3981 (2:07) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to MIA 2 for 8 yards (16-M.Taaffe).
Q402:00 (2:00) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 4 for -2 yards. Play 4013 (2:00) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 4 for -2 yards.
Q401:18 (1:18) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 6 for -2 yards. Play 4042 (1:18) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 6 for -2 yards.
Q400:38 (:38) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 7 for -1 yards. Play 4064 (:38) 1-K.Murray kneels to MIA 7 for -1 yards.
Down
3
Game seconds remaining 1441
Half seconds remaining 1441
Quarter seconds remaining 541
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence MIN 1.05 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1441
Half seconds remaining 1441
Quarter seconds remaining 541
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 2
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1441
Half seconds remaining 1441
Quarter seconds remaining 541
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:30 Penalty · MIA (5:30) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 33 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN -2.04 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 5
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3030
Half seconds remaining 1230
Quarter seconds remaining 330
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 67
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3030
Half seconds remaining 1230
Quarter seconds remaining 330
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence MIN -0.46 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 5
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3030
Half seconds remaining 1230
Quarter seconds remaining 330
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 67
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3030
Half seconds remaining 1230
Quarter seconds remaining 330
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q206:46 Penalty · MIA (6:46) PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN 1.99 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2206
Half seconds remaining 406
Quarter seconds remaining 406
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2206
Half seconds remaining 406
Quarter seconds remaining 406
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence MIN 0.73 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2206
Half seconds remaining 406
Quarter seconds remaining 406
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2206
Half seconds remaining 406
Quarter seconds remaining 406
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q403:41 Penalty · MIN (3:41) 78-C.Tiernan reported in as eligible. PENALTY on MIN-78-C.Tiernan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN -1.54 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 221
Half seconds remaining 221
Quarter seconds remaining 221
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 221
Half seconds remaining 221
Quarter seconds remaining 221
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence MIN -0.58 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 221
Half seconds remaining 221
Quarter seconds remaining 221
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 221
Half seconds remaining 221
Quarter seconds remaining 221
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q209:45 Penalty · MIN (9:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN -1.04 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2385
Half seconds remaining 585
Quarter seconds remaining 585
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2385
Half seconds remaining 585
Quarter seconds remaining 585
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence MIN -0.5 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2385
Half seconds remaining 585
Quarter seconds remaining 585
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2385
Half seconds remaining 585
Quarter seconds remaining 585
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q212:26 Fourth down · MIA (12:26) 48-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price to MIN 18 for 3 yards (35-R.Taylor; 32-J.Simpson). + Fourth down decision cost MIA 0.6 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 3.100222806221175
Yardline 100 68
Elapsed share 0.2927777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 14.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -10
Original posteam MIA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2546
Half seconds remaining 746
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 746
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1642621313683498 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16426/ NA/0.15822 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q111:04 Fourth down · MIA (11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller). + Fourth down decision cost MIA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 7.693400402567279
Yardline 100 74
Elapsed share 0.06555555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 14.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -10
Original posteam MIA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3364
Half seconds remaining 1564
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 664
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2203687679740436 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19084/ NA/0.22037 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:30 Penalty · MIN (9:30) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 33 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 23
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 38
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3270
Half seconds remaining 1470
Quarter seconds remaining 570
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 18
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 33
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3270
Half seconds remaining 1470
Quarter seconds remaining 570
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence MIN -0.43 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 23
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 38
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3270
Half seconds remaining 1470
Quarter seconds remaining 570
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 18
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 33
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3270
Half seconds remaining 1470
Quarter seconds remaining 570
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q107:57 Kick · MIN (7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 6.250022682827008
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.1175
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 10
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3177
Half seconds remaining 1377
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 477
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7799411741361187 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77388/0.77994/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation MIN 1.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q102:50 Fourth down · MIA (2:50) 48-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-46-T.Addington. ** Injury Update: MIA-42-J.Woodard has returned to the game. + Fourth down decision cost MIA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 4.443640539847611
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.2027777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 14.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -10
Original posteam MIA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2870
Half seconds remaining 1070
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 170
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1961999701543805 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18083/ NA/0.19620 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:15 Fourth down · MIN (14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn). + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 19
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 3.499377491111553
Yardline 100 78
Elapsed share 0.2625
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 10
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2655
Half seconds remaining 855
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 855
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7823415770748665 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74233/ NA/0.78234 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:13 Kick · MIN (7:13) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 2.189550352172937
Yardline 100 32
Elapsed share 0.3797222222222222
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 10
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2233
Half seconds remaining 433
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 433
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8117324012958926 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80913/0.81173/0.79771 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation MIN 1.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 27 recorded events Q205:01 Fourth down · MIN (5:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 1.890855812515642
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.4163888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 10
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2101
Half seconds remaining 301
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 301
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8561043191102283 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85041/0.83362/0.85610 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:53 Fourth down · MIA (2:53) 48-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-0-O.Gordon. MIA-35-R.Taylor was injured during the play. The penalty was assisted by replay. + Fourth down decision cost MIA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 1.640182170460421
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.4519444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 14.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -10
Original posteam MIA
Home receive 2h ko Q311:58 Kick · MIA (11:58) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. + Fourth down decision cost MIA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 1.105572025070288
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.5505555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 14.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -10
Original posteam MIA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q306:38 Kick · MIN (6:38) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 0.7747671977276643
Yardline 100 23
Elapsed share 0.6394444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 10
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q304:21 Fourth down · MIA (4:21) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 26 for 12 yards (1-J.Tolbert). + Fourth down decision cost MIA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIA
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 0.6653680671501685
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.6775
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 14.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -10
Original posteam MIA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q302:00 Fourth down · MIN (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to MIA 45, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 0.5688823834610152
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.7166666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 10
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q410:08 Fourth down · MIN (10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks). + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 0.3599250903841323
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.8311111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 10
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q406:43 Kick · MIN (6:43) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team MIA
Home team MIN
Away total 14.25
Home total 24.25
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 10
Spread time 0.2866087799420274
Yardline 100 11
Elapsed share 0.8880555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 10
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q113:00 Penalty · MIN (13:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-25-J.Wood, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:51 Penalty · MIN (10:51) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to MIA 33 for 5 yards (94-J.Phillips; 10-J.Rodriguez). PENALTY on MIA-44-C.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:44 Penalty · MIN (9:44) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIA 21 for 4 yards (93-Z.Biggers). PENALTY on MIN-74-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 23. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:54 Penalty · MIA 16-W.Reichard kicks 64 yards from MIN 35 to MIA 1. 5-J.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 2. 5-J.Wright to MIA 23 for 21 yards (24-J.Ward; 82-J.Jones). PENALTY on MIA-59-R.McGraw, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 23. + Observed ruling consequence MIA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:55 Fourth down · MIA (5:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 0-O.Gordon pushed ob at MIA 33 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson). Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence MIA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:20 Penalty · MIA (4:20) 5-J.Wright left end pushed ob at MIA 46 for no gain (51-B.Cashman; 2-I.Rodgers). PENALTY on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:56 Penalty · MIN (:56) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to MIA 48 for 21 yards (3-C.Johnson; 4-J.Marshall). PENALTY on MIN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:40 Penalty · MIA (12:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Bell. PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, Illegal Touch Pass, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 32. + Observed ruling consequence MIA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:51 Penalty · MIN (11:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 23 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 9-J.Uche). PENALTY on MIA-90-M.Herring, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 22 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:21 Penalty · MIN (11:21) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 3-J.Addison to MIN 28 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks). PENALTY on MIN-3-J.Addison, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:04 Penalty · MIA (7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at MIA 31 for 3 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-97-D.Orange, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 31. + Observed ruling consequence MIA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:50 Fumble · MIA (5:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50. + Fumble recoveries above expectation MIN 0.45 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation MIA -0.45 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:12 Penalty · MIA (4:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end ran ob at MIA 41 for 11 yards (44-J.Metellus). PENALTY on MIA-52-P.Paul, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:04 Kick · MIN (:04) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. + Field goal points above expectation MIN 1.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q309:01 Penalty · MIN (9:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 21-D.Claiborne to MIA 23 for -1 yards (3-C.Johnson). PENALTY on MIN-14-J.Jennings, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q300:11 Kick · MIA 47-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. + Extra point points above expectation MIA 0.03 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:28 Fumble · MIN (7:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to MIA 11 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche). FUMBLES (9-J.Uche), ball out of bounds at MIA 9. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q405:48 Penalty · MIA (5:48) 48-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-82-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 34. + Observed ruling consequence MIA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost MIA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:17 Penalty · MIN (2:17) PENALTY on MIN-60-J.Huber, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 15 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 81d5581ee30a0c393302aacb185b84db7049882e969625d6f8eebf7265be211bModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 231b5e7a27a9992c415c1b0c7accc9bea16f21de1f1b3e6d127f41e73eb92118
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Oct 5, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 11:31 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-1
Game seconds remaining 1973
Half seconds remaining 173
Quarter seconds remaining 173
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1218619656957553 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.12005/ NA/0.12186 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-9
Game seconds remaining 1618
Half seconds remaining 1618
Quarter seconds remaining 718
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.08886372342004091 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08537/0.08886/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation MIA 0.03 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
6
Game seconds remaining 1298
Half seconds remaining 1298
Quarter seconds remaining 398
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9049864847468274 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88597/0.90499/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation MIN 1.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-9
Game seconds remaining 1161
Half seconds remaining 1161
Quarter seconds remaining 261
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.06225040559384931 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.06028/ NA/0.06225 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
9
Game seconds remaining 1020
Half seconds remaining 1020
Quarter seconds remaining 120
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9254462851957134 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.90787/ NA/0.92545 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
2
Game seconds remaining 608
Half seconds remaining 608
Quarter seconds remaining 608
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.808366586251857 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80837/0.78983/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
2
Game seconds remaining 403
Half seconds remaining 403
Quarter seconds remaining 403
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8163493882144841 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81599/0.81635/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation MIN 1.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled