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Sus 4 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? 3 defensive penalties kept one CHI drive alive.
3 defensive penalties extended one CHI drive on third or fourth down. How this rating was calculated Sus (4/5): 3 defensive penalties kept one CHI drive alive.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: CHI by 15.1; actual result: CHI by 11.
The 4.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 516 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 CHI minus NYJ penalty-count difference: -8 versus -0.2 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 66 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 25.77%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: CHI by 3.5; actual result: CHI by 11. The difference was 7.5 points.
3,980 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Sus · 4/5 3 defensive penalties gave CHI first downs on third or fourth down during one drive.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The outcome deviation does not favor the winning team.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Chicago Bears by 3.5
Final margin Chicago Bears by 11
Difference 7.5 points
Chicago Bears covered the spread.
3,980 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (54.7%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score CHI by 15.1
Actual final margin CHI by 11
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Chicago Bears chance to win during the game 142 preplay estimates across 167 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 25 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 6 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q1 · 09:14 Recorded game event
Chicago Bears · Play 469 (9:14) 4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 8.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 06:08 Recorded game event
Chicago Bears · Play 3719 (6:08) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Ponds at NYJ 44. 23-D.Ponds to NYJ 44 for no gain (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 33 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NYJ awarded CHI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. 3 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on CHI drive 17; review the sequence together. Estimated chance to win moved 1.2 percentage points across this play.
Q1 · 09:31 Recorded game event
Chicago Bears · Play 396 (9:31) 4-D.Swift right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift right guard to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 167 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 167 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 15 for 10 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). PENALTY on CHI-22-E.Hicks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at CHI 12. Play 40 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 15 for 10 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). PENALTY on CHI-22-E.Hicks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at CHI 12.
Q114:53 (14:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 8 for 2 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 74 (14:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 8 for 2 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q114:18 (14:18) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at CHI 15 for 7 yards (56-D.Davis). Play 96 (14:18) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at CHI 15 for 7 yards (56-D.Davis).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 34 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q106:42 Penalty · CHI (6:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-85-C.Kmet, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI -2.66 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 8
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3102
Half seconds remaining 1302
Quarter seconds remaining 402
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 152ea0757cde6fcb5810b05f1528496f2b75d9f8d668c292be6bcce46d8dce16This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
516 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 66 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Carl Cheffers Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 79 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.4 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 50.6 yd per game. Away teams: 6.6 / 54.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Carl Cheffers; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Chicago Bears · Drive extending penalties CHI received 3 first downs from NYJ penalties on third or fourth down during drive 17. Review these plays together; this does not establish that any call was wrong.
Chicago Bears · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Chicago Bears · Opponent penalties Opponent NYJ was charged 12 penalties for 76 yards.
New York Jets · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New York Jets · Opponent penalties Opponent CHI was charged 4 penalties for 29 yards.
Explore the historical comparisons (1) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
Chicago Bears Historical context
Winning-profile context CHI won. Prior matching team-games: 1226 wins, 4513 losses, 13 ties among 5752 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
1,226 / 5,752 prior matching team-games were wins
4,513 losses · 13 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 142 model estimates across 167 recorded game entries.
25 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (167 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Ruling expected points consequence 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence -2.66 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Ruling expected points consequence -0.71 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence 2.13 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Ruling expected points consequence 0.74 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence 1.41 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Ruling expected points consequence 0.13 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Observed ruling consequence 0.17 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CHI Ruling expected points consequence 1.89 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67849/0.60580/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64813/0.59323/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68056/0.62073/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17068/ NA/0.20396 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 1.28 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28797/0.27512/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 3.17 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74894/0.71721/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0.75 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22844/ NA/0.22096 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77461/0.83539/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.12782/0.13304/0.13420 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0.25 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15187/0.14934/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0.51 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05201/ NA/0.04696 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98157/0.98302/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
CHI Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.35 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 21st percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
NYJ Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.35 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 21st percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
CHI Field goal points above expectation 0.15 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NYJ Field goal points above expectation 0.27 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
CHI Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
NYJ Extra point points above expectation -0.96 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 95th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
CHI Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 167 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
NYJ Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 167 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
CHI Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.65 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
92 of 92 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 92 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CHI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.5 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
92 of 92 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 92 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CHI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.22 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
18 of 18 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 18 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CHI Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.24 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
18 of 18 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 18 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYJ Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.27 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYJ Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.67 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYJ Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 2.49 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 3. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYJ Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.53 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 08:21 Recorded game event
Chicago Bears · Play 3592 (8:21) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at CHI 47. 21-B.Stephens to CHI 47 for no gain (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on NYJ-56-D.Davis, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 15 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NYJ awarded CHI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. 3 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on CHI drive 17; review the sequence together. Estimated chance to win moved 0.8 percentage points across this play.
Show 2 more plays Q4 · 03:22 Recorded game event
Chicago Bears · Play 3921 (3:22) (Run formation) PENALTY on NYJ-99-T.Sweat, Neutral Zone Infraction, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NYJ awarded CHI a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. 3 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on CHI drive 17; review the sequence together. Estimated chance to win moved 0.2 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 00:43 Recorded game event
Chicago Bears · Play 2001 (:43) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (21-B.Stephens). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 37 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NYJ awarded CHI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.4 percentage points across this play.
Q113:48 (13:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 22 for 7 yards (6-D.Belton; 29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 126
(13:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 22 for 7 yards (6-D.Belton; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q113:20 (13:20) Direct snap to 4-D.Swift. 4-D.Swift left tackle to CHI 22 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 91-J.Briggs). Play 148 (13:20) Direct snap to 4-D.Swift. 4-D.Swift left tackle to CHI 22 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 91-J.Briggs).
Q112:46 (12:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 26 for 4 yards (97-H.Phillips; 99-T.Sweat). Play 172 (12:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 26 for 4 yards (97-H.Phillips; 99-T.Sweat).
Q112:05 (12:05) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 47 for 21 yards (6-D.Belton). New York Jets challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 194 (12:05) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 47 for 21 yards (6-D.Belton). New York Jets challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q111:38 (11:38) 17-T.Bagent pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to NYJ 33 for 20 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 219 (11:38) 17-T.Bagent pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to NYJ 33 for 20 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q111:14 (11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 31 for 2 yards (6-D.Belton). Play 290 (11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 31 for 2 yards (6-D.Belton).
Q110:39 (10:39) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right tackle to NYJ 30 for 1 yard (95-D.Jackson). PENALTY on NYJ-95-D.Jackson, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30. Play 315 (10:39) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right tackle to NYJ 30 for 1 yard (95-D.Jackson). PENALTY on NYJ-95-D.Jackson, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30.
Q110:15 (10:15) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to NYJ 3 for 12 yards (56-D.Davis; 6-D.Belton). Play 348 (10:15) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to NYJ 3 for 12 yards (56-D.Davis; 6-D.Belton).
Q109:37 (9:37) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left. Play 373 (9:37) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left.
Q109:31 (9:31) 4-D.Swift right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift right guard to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood). Play 396 (9:31) 4-D.Swift right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift right guard to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q109:18 (9:18) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Loveland (44-J.Sherwood). Play 446 (9:18) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Loveland (44-J.Sherwood).
Q109:14 (9:14) 4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens). Play 469 (9:14) 4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens).
Q109:12 (9:12) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 0 yards, enforced at NYJ 1 - No Play. Play 519 (9:12) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 0 yards, enforced at NYJ 1 - No Play.
Q109:12 (9:12) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 16-K.Sadiq [53-T.Edwards]. Play 543 (9:12) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 16-K.Sadiq [53-T.Edwards].
Q108:57 (8:57) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 4 for 3 yards (53-T.Edwards; 48-D.Jackson). Play 566 (8:57) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 4 for 3 yards (53-T.Edwards; 48-D.Jackson).
Q108:32 (8:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 10 for 6 yards (29-T.Stevenson). Play 588 (8:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 10 for 6 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
Q107:47 (7:47) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 10 - No Play. Play 613 (7:47) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 10 - No Play.
Q107:35 (7:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 60 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 8 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). Play 644 (7:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 60 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 8 yards (37-Q.Stiggers).
Q107:24 (7:24) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 85-C.Kmet to 50 for 7 yards (44-J.Sherwood). Play 670 (7:24) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 85-C.Kmet to 50 for 7 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q106:42 (6:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-85-C.Kmet, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. Play 695 (6:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-85-C.Kmet, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q106:18 (6:18) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at NYJ 33 for 22 yards (21-B.Stephens). Play 719 (6:18) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at NYJ 33 for 22 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q105:41 (5:41) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 29 for 4 yards (46-J.Ossai; 6-D.Belton). Play 749 (5:41) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 29 for 4 yards (46-J.Ossai; 6-D.Belton).
Q104:58 (4:58) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to NYJ 14 for 15 yards (31-D.Bailey; 29-M.Fitzpatrick). PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 25. Play 771 (4:58) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to NYJ 14 for 15 yards (31-D.Bailey; 29-M.Fitzpatrick). PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 25.
Q104:34 (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 99-T.Sweat at NYJ 36. 99-T.Sweat to NYJ 38 for 2 yards (73-J.Jackson). PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Thomas, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35 - No Play. Play 804 (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 99-T.Sweat at NYJ 36. 99-T.Sweat to NYJ 38 for 2 yards (73-J.Jackson). PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Thomas, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35 - No Play.
Q104:28 (4:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 27 for 3 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 842 (4:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 27 for 3 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q103:55 (3:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 23 for 4 yards (56-D.Davis). Play 864 (3:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 23 for 4 yards (56-D.Davis).
Q103:17 (3:17) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to NYJ 21 for 2 yards (6-D.Belton). Play 886 (3:17) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to NYJ 21 for 2 yards (6-D.Belton).
Q102:56 (2:56) 4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 922 (2:56) 4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q102:28 (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (46-J.Ossai). Play 944 (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (46-J.Ossai).
Q101:49 (1:49) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right tackle to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (44-J.Sherwood). Play 966 (1:49) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right tackle to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q101:08 (1:08) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (46-J.Ossai; 44-J.Sherwood). Play 988 (1:08) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (46-J.Ossai; 44-J.Sherwood).
Q100:27 (:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1010 (:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q100:23 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Play 1033 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q100:23 8-C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the NYJ 20. Play 1048 8-C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the NYJ 20.
Q100:23 (:23) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 26 for 6 yards (52-M.Davenport; 53-T.Edwards). Play 1065 (:23) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 26 for 6 yards (52-M.Davenport; 53-T.Edwards).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1087 Q215:00 (15:00) 0-B.Allen right end to NYJ 32 for 6 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 94-A.Booker). Play 1107 (15:00) 0-B.Allen right end to NYJ 32 for 6 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 94-A.Booker).
Q214:16 (14:16) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 18-I.Williams. Play 1129 (14:16) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 18-I.Williams.
Q214:12 (14:12) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-K.Sadiq (55-D.Odeyingbo). Play 1152 (14:12) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-K.Sadiq (55-D.Odeyingbo).
Q214:07 (14:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 32 - No Play. Play 1175 (14:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 32 - No Play.
Q214:07 (14:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 18 for -9 yards (94-A.Booker). Play 1199 (14:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 18 for -9 yards (94-A.Booker).
Q213:28 (13:28) 14-A.McNamara punts 59 yards to CHI 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 31 for 8 yards (48-J.Keller; 47-A.Beck). Play 1219 (13:28) 14-A.McNamara punts 59 yards to CHI 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 31 for 8 yards (48-J.Keller; 47-A.Beck).
Q213:17 (13:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right end to CHI 39 for 8 yards (56-D.Davis; 9-W.McDonald). Play 1245 (13:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right end to CHI 39 for 8 yards (56-D.Davis; 9-W.McDonald).
Q212:36 (12:36) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 4-D.Swift to CHI 43 for 4 yards (56-D.Davis; 44-J.Sherwood). Play 1274 (12:36) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 4-D.Swift to CHI 43 for 4 yards (56-D.Davis; 44-J.Sherwood).
Q211:52 (11:52) 17-T.Bagent pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 39. 29-M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at CHI 34 for 27 yards (87-S.Roush). Play 1299 (11:52) 17-T.Bagent pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 39. 29-M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at CHI 34 for 27 yards (87-S.Roush).
Q211:42 (11:42) 0-B.Allen right tackle to CHI 28 for 6 yards (98-M.Sweat; 31-D.Thieneman). Play 1336 (11:42) 0-B.Allen right tackle to CHI 28 for 6 yards (98-M.Sweat; 31-D.Thieneman).
Q211:02 (11:02) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 0-B.Allen pushed ob at CHI 23 for 5 yards (32-X.Woods). Play 1358 (11:02) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 0-B.Allen pushed ob at CHI 23 for 5 yards (32-X.Woods).
Q210:30 (10:30) 0-B.Allen left guard to CHI 21 for 2 yards (12-D.Bush; 31-D.Thieneman). Play 1388 (10:30) 0-B.Allen left guard to CHI 21 for 2 yards (12-D.Bush; 31-D.Thieneman).
Q209:46 (9:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked ob at CHI 25 for -4 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo). Play 1410 (9:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked ob at CHI 25 for -4 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo).
Q209:06 (9:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to CHI 18 for 7 yards (29-T.Stevenson). Play 1430 (9:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to CHI 18 for 7 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
Q208:20 (8:20) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. Play 1455 (8:20) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q208:15 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 29 for 24 yards (32-I.Davis). Play 1475 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 29 for 24 yards (32-I.Davis).
Q208:08 (8:08) 25-K.Monangai right end to CHI 48 for 19 yards (46-J.Ossai). Play 1505 (8:08) 25-K.Monangai right end to CHI 48 for 19 yards (46-J.Ossai).
Q207:40 (7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 48 for 4 yards (46-J.Ossai). Play 1527 (7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 48 for 4 yards (46-J.Ossai).
Q207:07 (7:07) 25-K.Monangai left guard to NYJ 45 for 3 yards (99-T.Sweat; 6-D.Belton). Play 1549 (7:07) 25-K.Monangai left guard to NYJ 45 for 3 yards (99-T.Sweat; 6-D.Belton).
Q206:25 (6:25) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 40 for 5 yards (1-A.Thomas). Play 1576 (6:25) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 40 for 5 yards (1-A.Thomas).
Q205:59 (5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to NYJ 37 for 3 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 97-H.Phillips). PENALTY on NYJ-97-H.Phillips, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 37. Play 1601 (5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to NYJ 37 for 3 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 97-H.Phillips). PENALTY on NYJ-97-H.Phillips, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
Q205:35 (5:35) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 26 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey). Play 1634 (5:35) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 26 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey).
Q205:01 (5:01) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left tackle to NYJ 20 for 6 yards (9-W.McDonald; 29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 1656 (5:01) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left tackle to NYJ 20 for 6 yards (9-W.McDonald; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q204:33 (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to NYJ 19 for 1 yard (6-D.Belton). Play 1678 (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to NYJ 19 for 1 yard (6-D.Belton).
Q203:58 (3:58) 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 16 for 3 yards (95-D.Jackson). Play 1703 (3:58) 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 16 for 3 yards (95-D.Jackson).
Q203:15 (3:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to NYJ 12 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick; 31-D.Bailey). Play 1725 (3:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to NYJ 12 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick; 31-D.Bailey).
Q202:32 (2:32) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Play 1747 (2:32) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q202:29 8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to NYJ 2. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 29 for 27 yards (92-D.Hardy; 48-D.Jackson). Play 1767 8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to NYJ 2. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 29 for 27 yards (92-D.Hardy; 48-D.Jackson).
Q202:19 (2:19) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 35 for 6 yards (90-N.Gallimore). Play 1797 (2:19) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 35 for 6 yards (90-N.Gallimore).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 16-K.Sadiq. Play 1819 (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 16-K.Sadiq.
Q201:56 (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-K.Sadiq [22-E.Hicks]. Play 1849 (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-K.Sadiq [22-E.Hicks].
Q201:51 (1:51) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. Play 1872 (1:51) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
Q201:44 (1:44) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 27 for 7 yards (6-D.Belton). Play 1892 (1:44) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 27 for 7 yards (6-D.Belton).
Q201:20 (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 33 for 6 yards (44-J.Sherwood). Play 1924 (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 33 for 6 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q200:59 (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 25 for -8 yards (56-D.Davis). Play 1949 (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 25 for -8 yards (56-D.Davis).
Q200:53 Timeout #2 by NYJ at 00:53. Play 1981 Timeout #2 by NYJ at 00:53.
Q200:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 4-D.Swift to CHI 37 for 12 yards (55-B.McGregor). Play 1969 (:53) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 4-D.Swift to CHI 37 for 12 yards (55-B.McGregor).
Q200:43 Timeout #1 by CHI at 00:43. Play 2013 Timeout #1 by CHI at 00:43.
Q200:43 (:43) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (21-B.Stephens). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 37 - No Play. Play 2001 (:43) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (21-B.Stephens). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 37 - No Play.
Q200:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 47 for 5 yards (56-D.Davis). Play 2042 (:38) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 47 for 5 yards (56-D.Davis).
Q200:33 Timeout #2 by CHI at 00:33. Play 2079 Timeout #2 by CHI at 00:33.
Q200:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland (6-D.Belton). Play 2067 (:33) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland (6-D.Belton).
Q200:27 (:27) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 16 for 37 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 2097 (:27) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 16 for 37 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q200:19 Timeout #3 by CHI at 00:19. Play 2134 Timeout #3 by CHI at 00:19.
Q200:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 12 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 2122 (:19) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 12 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q200:11 (:11) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left. Play 2161 (:11) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left.
Q200:06 (:06) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left. Play 2184 (:06) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left.
Q200:02 Timeout #3 by NYJ at 00:02. Play 2225 Timeout #3 by NYJ at 00:02.
Q200:02 (:02) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Play 2207 (:02) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2234 Q315:00 8-C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NYJ 35. Play 2252 8-C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NYJ 35.
Q315:00 (15:00) 0-B.Allen right guard to NYJ 40 for 5 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 93-K.Street). Play 2269 (15:00) 0-B.Allen right guard to NYJ 40 for 5 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 93-K.Street).
Q314:19 (14:19) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 46 for 6 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo; 50-G.Jarrett). Play 2291 (14:19) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 46 for 6 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo; 50-G.Jarrett).
Q313:41 (13:41) 0-B.Allen left guard to CHI 49 for 5 yards (48-D.Jackson; 50-G.Jarrett). Play 2313 (13:41) 0-B.Allen left guard to CHI 49 for 5 yards (48-D.Jackson; 50-G.Jarrett).
Q312:56 (12:56) 0-B.Allen left tackle to CHI 39 for 10 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 32-X.Woods). Play 2335 (12:56) 0-B.Allen left tackle to CHI 39 for 10 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 32-X.Woods).
Q312:16 (12:16) 0-B.Allen left tackle to CHI 44 for -5 yards (29-T.Stevenson). Play 2357 (12:16) 0-B.Allen left tackle to CHI 44 for -5 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
Q311:35 (11:35) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 86-J.Woods to CHI 33 for 11 yards (12-D.Bush). Play 2379 (11:35) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 86-J.Woods to CHI 33 for 11 yards (12-D.Bush).
Q310:58 (10:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at CHI 41 for -8 yards (12-D.Bush). Play 2404 (10:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at CHI 41 for -8 yards (12-D.Bush).
Q310:12 (10:12) (Punt formation) Penalty on NYJ, Delay of Game, declined. Play 2424 (10:12) (Punt formation) Penalty on NYJ, Delay of Game, declined.
Q309:59 (9:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CHI 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-84-M.McClain. Play 2452 (9:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CHI 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-84-M.McClain.
Q309:51 (9:51) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at CHI 24 for 20 yards (21-B.Stephens). Play 2472 (9:51) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at CHI 24 for 20 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q309:31 (9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to CHI 28 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 97-H.Phillips). Play 2509 (9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard to CHI 28 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 97-H.Phillips).
Q308:52 (8:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to CHI 28 for no gain (44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (44-J.Sherwood), RECOVERED by NYJ-21-B.Stephens at CHI 28. 21-B.Stephens ran ob at CHI 28 for no gain. Play 2536 (8:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to CHI 28 for no gain (44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (44-J.Sherwood), RECOVERED by NYJ-21-B.Stephens at CHI 28. 21-B.Stephens ran ob at CHI 28 for no gain.
Q308:46 (8:46) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 18-I.Williams to CHI 13 for 15 yards (29-T.Stevenson; 32-X.Woods). Play 2574 (8:46) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 18-I.Williams to CHI 13 for 15 yards (29-T.Stevenson; 32-X.Woods).
Q308:02 (8:02) 0-B.Allen left tackle to CHI 11 for 2 yards (24-M.Muhammad; 31-D.Thieneman). Play 2604 (8:02) 0-B.Allen left tackle to CHI 11 for 2 yards (24-M.Muhammad; 31-D.Thieneman).
Q307:26 (7:26) 0-B.Allen left guard to CHI 7 for 4 yards (53-T.Edwards; 31-D.Thieneman). NYJ-70-A.Membou was injured during the play. Play 2626 (7:26) 0-B.Allen left guard to CHI 7 for 4 yards (53-T.Edwards; 31-D.Thieneman). NYJ-70-A.Membou was injured during the play.
Q307:09 (7:09) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Shepard [94-A.Booker]. Play 2651 (7:09) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Shepard [94-A.Booker].
Q307:05 (7:05) (Run formation) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 7 - No Play. Play 2681 (7:05) (Run formation) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 7 - No Play.
Q307:05 (7:05) 19-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. Play 2705 (7:05) 19-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q307:00 19-J.Sanders kicks 64 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 1. 13-Z.Thomas pushed ob at CHI 28 for 27 yards (8-A.Cisco). Play 2725 19-J.Sanders kicks 64 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 1. 13-Z.Thomas pushed ob at CHI 28 for 27 yards (8-A.Cisco).
Q306:52 (6:52) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CHI 34 for 6 yards (91-J.Briggs; 31-D.Bailey). Play 2765 (6:52) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CHI 34 for 6 yards (91-J.Briggs; 31-D.Bailey).
Q306:23 (6:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet to CHI 40 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis). PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 40. Play 2787 (6:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet to CHI 40 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis). PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 40.
Q306:00 (6:00) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 36 for 9 yards (1-A.Thomas). Play 2823 (6:00) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to NYJ 36 for 9 yards (1-A.Thomas).
Q305:19 (5:19) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 29 for 7 yards (6-D.Belton). Play 2848 (5:19) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 29 for 7 yards (6-D.Belton).
Q304:56 (4:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 28 for 1 yard (97-H.Phillips; 29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 2870 (4:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 28 for 1 yard (97-H.Phillips; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q304:18 (4:18) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 87-S.Roush to NYJ 20 for 8 yards (1-A.Thomas). NYJ-2-J.Brownlee was injured during the play. The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 2892 (4:18) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 87-S.Roush to NYJ 20 for 8 yards (1-A.Thomas). NYJ-2-J.Brownlee was injured during the play. The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q303:55 (3:55) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to NYJ 8 for 12 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 2920 (3:55) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to NYJ 8 for 12 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q303:15 (3:15) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 5 for 3 yards (23-D.Ponds; 56-D.Davis). Play 2947 (3:15) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 5 for 3 yards (23-D.Ponds; 56-D.Davis).
Q302:29 (2:29) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2969 (2:29) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q302:26 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Play 2992 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q302:26 8-C.Santos kicks 55 yards from CHI 35 to NYJ 10. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 32 for 22 yards (23-R.Johnson). Play 3007 8-C.Santos kicks 55 yards from CHI 35 to NYJ 10. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 32 for 22 yards (23-R.Johnson).
Q302:20 (2:20) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 0-B.Allen pushed ob at NYJ 35 for 3 yards (53-T.Edwards) [98-M.Sweat]. ** Injury Update: NYJ-70-A.Membou has returned to the game. Play 3037 (2:20) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 0-B.Allen pushed ob at NYJ 35 for 3 yards (53-T.Edwards) [98-M.Sweat]. ** Injury Update: NYJ-70-A.Membou has returned to the game.
Q301:40 (1:40) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to NYJ 38 for 3 yards (12-D.Bush; 50-G.Jarrett). Play 3070 (1:40) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to NYJ 38 for 3 yards (12-D.Bush; 50-G.Jarrett).
Q301:09 (1:09) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (24-M.Muhammad). Play 3095 (1:09) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (24-M.Muhammad).
Q301:06 (1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. Play 3118 (1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
Q300:57 (:57) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to CHI 34 for 14 yards (1-A.Thomas). Play 3136 (:57) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to CHI 34 for 14 yards (1-A.Thomas).
Q300:20 (:20) 10-L.Burden left end to CHI 45 for 11 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick; 23-D.Ponds). Play 3161 (:20) 10-L.Burden left end to CHI 45 for 11 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick; 23-D.Ponds).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3183 Q415:00 (15:00) 25-K.Monangai left end to NYJ 44 for 11 yards (21-B.Stephens; 6-D.Belton). Play 3203 (15:00) 25-K.Monangai left end to NYJ 44 for 11 yards (21-B.Stephens; 6-D.Belton).
Q414:17 (14:17) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 10-L.Burden (1-A.Thomas). Play 3225 (14:17) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 10-L.Burden (1-A.Thomas).
Q414:12 (14:12) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 18 for 26 yards (6-D.Belton; 29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 3248 (14:12) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 18 for 26 yards (6-D.Belton; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q413:27 (13:27) 25-K.Monangai left tackle to NYJ 15 for 3 yards (97-H.Phillips). Play 3270 (13:27) 25-K.Monangai left tackle to NYJ 15 for 3 yards (97-H.Phillips).
Q412:50 (12:50) 23-R.Johnson left guard to NYJ 4 for 11 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick; 56-D.Davis). Play 3292 (12:50) 23-R.Johnson left guard to NYJ 4 for 11 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick; 56-D.Davis).
Q412:08 (12:08) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right guard to NYJ 4 for no gain (46-J.Ossai). Play 3314 (12:08) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right guard to NYJ 4 for no gain (46-J.Ossai).
Q411:32 (11:32) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (31-D.Bailey; 44-J.Sherwood). Play 3336 (11:32) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 1 for 3 yards (31-D.Bailey; 44-J.Sherwood).
Q410:47 (10:47) 25-K.Monangai left tackle to NYJ 3 for -2 yards (91-J.Briggs, 99-T.Sweat). Play 3358 (10:47) 25-K.Monangai left tackle to NYJ 3 for -2 yards (91-J.Briggs, 99-T.Sweat).
Q410:04 (10:04) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Play 3380 (10:04) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q410:01 8-C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to NYJ 0. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 28 for 28 yards (92-D.Hardy; 38-S.Thomas). Play 3400 8-C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to NYJ 0. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 28 for 28 yards (92-D.Hardy; 38-S.Thomas).
Q409:54 (9:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson pushed ob at NYJ 42 for 14 yards (24-M.Muhammad). Play 3430 (9:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson pushed ob at NYJ 42 for 14 yards (24-M.Muhammad).
Q409:25 (9:25) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 18-I.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-J.van den Berg]. Play 3460 (9:25) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 18-I.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-J.van den Berg].
Q409:16 19-J.Sanders extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. Play 3486 19-J.Sanders extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q409:16 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas pushed ob at CHI 17 for 12 yards (27-M.Moore). PENALTY on CHI-87-S.Roush, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CHI 17. Penalty on CHI-9-J.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. Play 3501 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas pushed ob at CHI 17 for 12 yards (27-M.Moore). PENALTY on CHI-87-S.Roush, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CHI 17. Penalty on CHI-9-J.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
Q409:07 (9:07) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 10-L.Burden (21-B.Stephens, 31-D.Bailey). Play 3547 (9:07) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 10-L.Burden (21-B.Stephens, 31-D.Bailey).
Q409:03 (9:03) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to CHI 15 for 6 yards (9-W.McDonald). Play 3570 (9:03) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to CHI 15 for 6 yards (9-W.McDonald).
Q408:21 (8:21) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at CHI 47. 21-B.Stephens to CHI 47 for no gain (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on NYJ-56-D.Davis, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 15 - No Play. Play 3592 (8:21) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at CHI 47. 21-B.Stephens to CHI 47 for no gain (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on NYJ-56-D.Davis, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 15 - No Play.
Q408:13 (8:13) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CHI 23 for 3 yards (97-H.Phillips). Play 3630 (8:13) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CHI 23 for 3 yards (97-H.Phillips).
Q407:37 (7:37) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CHI 31 for 8 yards (1-A.Thomas; 44-J.Sherwood). Play 3652 (7:37) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CHI 31 for 8 yards (1-A.Thomas; 44-J.Sherwood).
Q406:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to CHI 33 for 2 yards (95-D.Jackson). Play 3674 (6:56) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to CHI 33 for 2 yards (95-D.Jackson).
Q406:12 (6:12) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep left to 15-R.Odunze [97-H.Phillips]. Play 3696 (6:12) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep left to 15-R.Odunze [97-H.Phillips].
Q406:08 (6:08) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Ponds at NYJ 44. 23-D.Ponds to NYJ 44 for no gain (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 33 - No Play. Play 3719 (6:08) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Ponds at NYJ 44. 23-D.Ponds to NYJ 44 for no gain (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 33 - No Play.
Q406:01 (6:01) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left end to CHI 39 for 1 yard (31-D.Bailey). Play 3757 (6:01) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left end to CHI 39 for 1 yard (31-D.Bailey).
Q405:52 Timeout #1 by NYJ at 05:52. Play 3791 Timeout #1 by NYJ at 05:52.
Q405:52 (5:52) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 25-K.Monangai to CHI 43 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 6-D.Belton). Play 3779 (5:52) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 25-K.Monangai to CHI 43 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 6-D.Belton).
Q405:40 Timeout #2 by NYJ at 05:40. Play 3828 Timeout #2 by NYJ at 05:40.
Q405:40 (5:40) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to NYJ 39 for 18 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 3816 (5:40) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to NYJ 39 for 18 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q405:35 Timeout #3 by NYJ at 05:35. Play 3860 Timeout #3 by NYJ at 05:35.
Q405:35 (5:35) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right end to NYJ 35 for 4 yards (95-D.Jackson; 44-J.Sherwood). Play 3848 (5:35) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right end to NYJ 35 for 4 yards (95-D.Jackson; 44-J.Sherwood).
Q404:50 (4:50) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 34 for 1 yard (9-W.McDonald). Play 3877 (4:50) 25-K.Monangai right guard to NYJ 34 for 1 yard (9-W.McDonald).
Q404:08 (4:08) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left end to NYJ 30 for 4 yards (23-D.Ponds). Play 3899 (4:08) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left end to NYJ 30 for 4 yards (23-D.Ponds).
Q403:22 (3:22) (Run formation) PENALTY on NYJ-99-T.Sweat, Neutral Zone Infraction, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play. Play 3921 (3:22) (Run formation) PENALTY on NYJ-99-T.Sweat, Neutral Zone Infraction, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play.
Q403:21 (3:21) 23-R.Johnson left guard to NYJ 22 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs). Play 3945 (3:21) 23-R.Johnson left guard to NYJ 22 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs).
Q402:38 (2:38) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right guard to NYJ 19 for 3 yards (6-D.Belton; 97-H.Phillips). Play 3967 (2:38) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right guard to NYJ 19 for 3 yards (6-D.Belton; 97-H.Phillips).
Q402:00 (2:00) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at NYJ 12 for 7 yards (46-J.Ossai). Play 3989 (2:00) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at NYJ 12 for 7 yards (46-J.Ossai).
Q401:54 (1:54) 17-T.Bagent kneels to NYJ 13 for -1 yards. Play 4026 (1:54) 17-T.Bagent kneels to NYJ 13 for -1 yards.
Q401:13 (1:13) 17-T.Bagent kneels to NYJ 14 for -1 yards. Play 4048 (1:13) 17-T.Bagent kneels to NYJ 14 for -1 yards.
Q400:38 (:38) 17-T.Bagent kneels to NYJ 15 for -1 yards. Play 4070 (:38) 17-T.Bagent kneels to NYJ 15 for -1 yards.
outdoors
Game seconds remaining 3102
Half seconds remaining 1302
Quarter seconds remaining 402
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CHI -0.71 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 8
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3102
Half seconds remaining 1302
Quarter seconds remaining 402
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 3
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3102
Half seconds remaining 1302
Quarter seconds remaining 402
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:07 Penalty · NYJ (14:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI 2.13 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 15
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 73
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2647
Half seconds remaining 847
Quarter seconds remaining 847
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2647
Half seconds remaining 847
Quarter seconds remaining 847
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CHI 0.74 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 15
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 73
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2647
Half seconds remaining 847
Quarter seconds remaining 847
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2647
Half seconds remaining 847
Quarter seconds remaining 847
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q307:05 Penalty · NYJ (7:05) (Run formation) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 7 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI 1.41 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 9
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 12
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1325
Half seconds remaining 1325
Quarter seconds remaining 425
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 4
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 7
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1325
Half seconds remaining 1325
Quarter seconds remaining 425
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CHI 0.13 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 9
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 12
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1325
Half seconds remaining 1325
Quarter seconds remaining 425
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 4
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 7
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1325
Half seconds remaining 1325
Quarter seconds remaining 425
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:51 Fourth down · NYJ (1:51) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0.75 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.5358485583788736
Yardline 100 65
Elapsed share 0.4691666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1911
Half seconds remaining 111
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 111
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2284373073969288 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22844/ NA/0.22096 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:06 Fourth down · NYJ (1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0.51 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.1875136383835605
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.7316666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 966
Half seconds remaining 966
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 66
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.05201290581393329 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05201/ NA/0.04696 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:22 Penalty · CHI (3:22) (Run formation) PENALTY on NYJ-99-T.Sweat, Neutral Zone Infraction, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI 0.17 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 202
Half seconds remaining 202
Quarter seconds remaining 202
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 202
Half seconds remaining 202
Quarter seconds remaining 202
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CHI 1.89 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 202
Half seconds remaining 202
Quarter seconds remaining 202
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 202
Half seconds remaining 202
Quarter seconds remaining 202
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:14 Fourth down · CHI (9:14) 4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens). + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 2.382900692770763
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.0961111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3254
Half seconds remaining 1454
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6784850831412832 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67849/0.60580/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:12 Penalty · NYJ (9:12) PENALTY on NYJ, Delay of Game, 0 yards, enforced at NYJ 1 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3252
Half seconds remaining 1452
Quarter seconds remaining 552
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3252
Half seconds remaining 1452
Quarter seconds remaining 552
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CHI 0 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3252
Half seconds remaining 1452
Quarter seconds remaining 552
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3252
Half seconds remaining 1452
Quarter seconds remaining 552
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q102:56 Fourth down · CHI (2:56) 4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.565677322120126
Yardline 100 21
Elapsed share 0.2011111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2876
Half seconds remaining 1076
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 176
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6481343215979017 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64813/0.59323/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:27 Fourth down · CHI (:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.326790633361896
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.2425
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2727
Half seconds remaining 927
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 27
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6805622018099735 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68056/0.62073/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:28 Fourth down · NYJ (13:28) 14-A.McNamara punts 59 yards to CHI 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 31 for 8 yards (48-J.Keller; 47-A.Beck). + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 24
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.162462670159634
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.2755555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2608
Half seconds remaining 808
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 808
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2039582197439662 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17068/ NA/0.20396 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:02 Kick · CHI (:02) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.4747272695176529
Yardline 100 12
Elapsed share 0.4994444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1802
Half seconds remaining 2
Away timeouts remaining 0
Home timeouts remaining 0
Quarter seconds remaining 2
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8353852715855958 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77461/0.83539/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CHI 0.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 22 recorded events Q410:04 Kick · CHI (10:04) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.1254151405048215
Yardline 100 3
Elapsed share 0.8322222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 604
Half seconds remaining 604
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 604
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.983024190610983 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98157/0.98302/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CHI 0.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q115:00 Penalty · CHI 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 15 for 10 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). PENALTY on CHI-22-E.Hicks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at CHI 12. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:39 Penalty · CHI (10:39) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai right tackle to NYJ 30 for 1 yard (95-D.Jackson). PENALTY on NYJ-95-D.Jackson, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:47 Penalty · NYJ (7:47) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 10 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:35 Fourth down · NYJ (7:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 60 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 8 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). + Fourth down decision cost NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:58 Penalty · CHI (4:58) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to NYJ 14 for 15 yards (31-D.Bailey; 29-M.Fitzpatrick). PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 25. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:34 Penalty · CHI (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 99-T.Sweat at NYJ 36. 99-T.Sweat to NYJ 38 for 2 yards (73-J.Jackson). PENALTY on NYJ-1-A.Thomas, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:23 Kick · CHI 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. + Extra point points above expectation CHI 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q208:20 Kick · NYJ (8:20) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 1.28 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.82556979044995
Yardline 100 18
Elapsed share 0.3611111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q205:59 Penalty · CHI (5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai left guard to NYJ 37 for 3 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 97-H.Phillips). PENALTY on NYJ-97-H.Phillips, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 37. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:32 Kick · CHI (2:32) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 3.17 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.5608240031159553
Yardline 100 12
Elapsed share 0.4577777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q200:43 Penalty · CHI (:43) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (21-B.Stephens). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:12 Fourth down · NYJ (10:12) (Punt formation) Penalty on NYJ, Delay of Game, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:59 Fourth down · NYJ (9:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CHI 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-84-M.McClain. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.3390249837468204
Yardline 100 41
Elapsed share 0.5836111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q308:52 Fumble · CHI (8:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to CHI 28 for no gain (44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (44-J.Sherwood), RECOVERED by NYJ-21-B.Stephens at CHI 28. 21-B.Stephens ran ob at CHI 28 for no gain. + Fumble recoveries above expectation CHI -0.35 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ 0.35 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:05 Kick · NYJ (7:05) 19-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0.25 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team NYJ
Home team CHI
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.2794268300799264
Yardline 100 12
Elapsed share 0.6319444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q306:23 Penalty · CHI (6:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet to CHI 40 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis). PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 40. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:26 Kick · CHI 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. + Extra point points above expectation CHI 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q409:16 Kick · NYJ 19-J.Sanders extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. + Extra point points above expectation NYJ -0.96 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:16 Penalty · CHI 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas pushed ob at CHI 17 for 12 yards (27-M.Moore). PENALTY on CHI-87-S.Roush, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CHI 17. Penalty on CHI-9-J.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:21 Penalty · CHI (8:21) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at CHI 47. 21-B.Stephens to CHI 47 for no gain (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on NYJ-56-D.Davis, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 15 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:08 Penalty · CHI (6:08) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Ponds at NYJ 44. 23-D.Ponds to NYJ 44 for no gain (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 33 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5703ab3149d9be3ca9ae7e4ffa87411dcc9cccf0f542d3125b08a3e8b5eac391nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 12:21 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 9789312b0fa22aa94a5103c1b047b331681e4b2b375fbc4012ba4286312f1bdanflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 12:56 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 76831794013143269cb6c9fa0d765ef1af081a8fd1cae98aa71c2ee0d42d5dbaModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 72370119c4052ecdeb12b2268a3010795c14061c8b656bc51dfd8e38d98a7172
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 8:28 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 2300
Half seconds remaining 500
Quarter seconds remaining 500
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2879668650298964 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28797/0.27512/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYJ 0.27 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
4
Game seconds remaining 1952
Half seconds remaining 152
Quarter seconds remaining 152
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7489359053359188 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74894/0.71721/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CHI 0.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-10
Game seconds remaining 1499
Half seconds remaining 1499
Quarter seconds remaining 599
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.13419821611544 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.12782/0.13304/0.13420 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-10
Game seconds remaining 1325
Half seconds remaining 1325
Quarter seconds remaining 425
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1518661703623726 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15187/0.14934/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYJ 0.27 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled