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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: CLE by 1.6; actual result: CLE by 3.
The 1.4-point difference was matched or exceeded in 708 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty count: 22 versus 13.0 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 66 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 25.77%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: PIT by 2.5; actual result: CLE by 3. The difference was 5.5 points.
4,831 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5
Final margin Cleveland Browns by 3
Difference 5.5 points
Cleveland Browns covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
4,831 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (66.4%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score CLE by 1.6
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Cleveland Browns chance to win during the game 154 preplay estimates across 186 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 32 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence 1.21 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 7 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 01:51 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 4319 (1:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington (28-E.McNeil-Warren). PENALTY on CLE-28-E.McNeil-Warren, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on CLE awarded PIT a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 10.7 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:55 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 4293 (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington.
Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 4.1 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 14:19 Recorded game event
Cleveland Browns · Play 3321 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Spears-Jennings [33-J.Sawyer] at PIT 23. 28-R.Spears-Jennings to PIT 23 for no gain (12-D.Boston). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at CLE 35 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass was not tipped ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Spears-Jennings (33-J.Sawyer) [33-J.Sawyer] at PIT 23. 28-R.Spears-Jennings to PIT 23 for no gain (12-D.Boston).
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 186 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 186 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 9-C.Boswell kicks 55 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 10. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 31 for 21 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 33-J.Sawyer). PENALTY on CLE-59-W.Reid, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 26. Play 41 9-C.Boswell kicks 55 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 10. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 31 for 21 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 33-J.Sawyer). PENALTY on CLE-59-W.Reid, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 26.
Q114:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to CLE 21 for 5 yards (22-A.Samuel). Play 75 (14:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to CLE 21 for 5 yards (22-A.Samuel).
Q114:21 (14:21) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 23 for 2 yards (6-P.Queen). Play 100 (14:21) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 23 for 2 yards (6-P.Queen).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 107 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q405:40 Fourth down · PIT (5:40) 19-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 3 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.06680806378718257
Yardline 100 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 5, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 152ea0757cde6fcb5810b05f1528496f2b75d9f8d668c292be6bcce46d8dce16CLE by 3
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
708 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 66 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Clete Blakeman Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.9 accepted penalties for 104.2 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.4 / 51.9 yd per game. Away teams: 6.5 / 52.3 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Clete Blakeman; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Cleveland Browns · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Cleveland Browns · Opponent penalties Opponent PIT was charged 8 penalties for 50 yards.
Pittsburgh Steelers · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Pittsburgh Steelers · Opponent penalties Opponent CLE was charged 14 penalties for 88 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 154 model estimates across 186 recorded game entries.
32 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (186 entries) Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence 0.86 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence -2.2 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence -0.93 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence -0.64 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence -0.54 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence 0.41 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence -0.87 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence -2.24 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence -0.99 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence -1.44 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence -0.78 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence 0.81 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence 0.71 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Scoring turnover or replay requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence 2.48 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence 0.6 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
CLE Fourth down decision cost 1.29 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38177/ NA/0.36882 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.21762/0.20185/0.21970 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57206/ NA/0.58198 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38703/0.41066/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17650/0.18552/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69686/ NA/0.74657 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18917/ NA/0.19239 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11602/0.12355/0.13098 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77996/0.78200/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 3 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.12048/ NA/0.09044 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81894/ NA/0.86282 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
CLE Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.27 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
PIT Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.27 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
CLE Field goal points above expectation 1.5 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 55th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
PIT Field goal points above expectation -2.32 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 85th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
CLE Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 77th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
PIT Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
CLE Charted drops 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PIT Charted drops 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CLE Interception worthy throws 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PIT Interception worthy throws 2 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CLE QB attributed sacks 2 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PIT QB attributed sacks 5 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CLE Catchable targets 26 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PIT Catchable targets 26 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CLE Contested targets 10 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PIT Contested targets 7 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
CLE Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
PIT Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
41 of 41 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
CLE Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.74 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.86 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.47 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 49 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.35 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 49 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.54 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
76 of 76 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 76 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.28 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
76 of 76 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 76 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.59 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.55 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 3.5 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 01:47 Recorded game event
Cleveland Browns · Play 1838 (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at PIT 4 for 6 yards. Penalty on PIT-6-P.Queen, Defensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at PIT 5 for 5 yards. PENALTY on PIT-6-P.Queen, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 10 - No Play.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 0.7 percentage points across this play.
Show 3 more plays Q4 · 01:12 Recorded game event
Cleveland Browns · Play 4460 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-77-Z.Johnson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 43 - No Play. 10-second runoff.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:09 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 4209 (2:09) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.5 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:42 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 4379 (Pass formation) PENALTY on CLE-8-J.Verse, Defensive Offside, 1 yard, enforced at CLE 2 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.0 percentage points across this play.
Q113:44 (13:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 0-I.Bond to CLE 25 for 2 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt]. Play 122
(13:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 0-I.Bond to CLE 25 for 2 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].
Q112:59 (12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to PIT 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 22 for 15 yards (86-B.Whiteheart). Play 147 (12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to PIT 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 22 for 15 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
Q112:47 (12:47) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 26 for 4 yards (7-T.Campbell). Play 178 (12:47) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 26 for 4 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q112:09 (12:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf. Play 200 (12:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf.
Q112:04 (12:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT-11-M.Pittman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 26 - No Play. Play 223 (12:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT-11-M.Pittman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 26 - No Play.
Q112:04 (12:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 36 for 15 yards (33-R.Hickman). Play 247 (12:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 36 for 15 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Q111:23 (11:23) 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 37 for 1 yard (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 272 (11:23) 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 37 for 1 yard (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q110:45 (10:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington to PIT 43 for 6 yards (33-R.Hickman; 9-G.Delpit). Play 294 (10:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington to PIT 43 for 6 yards (33-R.Hickman; 9-G.Delpit).
Q110:02 (10:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to 50 for 7 yards (9-G.Delpit; 49-C.Schwesinger). PENALTY on PIT-4-D.Metcalf, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at 50. Play 319 (10:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to 50 for 7 yards (9-G.Delpit; 49-C.Schwesinger). PENALTY on PIT-4-D.Metcalf, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
Q109:33 (9:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson. PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play. Play 355 (9:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson. PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play.
Q109:26 (9:26) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 40 for no gain (5-Q.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 389 (9:26) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 40 for no gain (5-Q.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q108:46 (8:46) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Warren to CLE 49 for 11 yards (5-Q.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 411 (8:46) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Warren to CLE 49 for 11 yards (5-Q.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q108:02 (8:02) PENALTY on CLE-51-M.Hall, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 49 - No Play. Play 436 (8:02) PENALTY on CLE-51-M.Hall, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 49 - No Play.
Q107:41 (7:41) 30-J.Warren up the middle to CLE 38 for 6 yards (26-M.Harden; 33-R.Hickman). CLE-94-M.Graham was injured during the play. Play 460 (7:41) 30-J.Warren up the middle to CLE 38 for 6 yards (26-M.Harden; 33-R.Hickman). CLE-94-M.Graham was injured during the play.
Q107:14 (7:14) 30-J.Warren right guard to CLE 37 for 1 yard (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold). Play 485 (7:14) 30-J.Warren right guard to CLE 37 for 1 yard (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).
Q106:31 (6:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 44 for -7 yards (96-M.Collins). Play 514 (6:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 44 for -7 yards (96-M.Collins).
Q105:49 (5:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to CLE 35 for 9 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 35. Penalty on CLE-26-M.Harden, Illegal Contact, declined. Penalty on CLE-8-J.Verse, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. Play 534 (5:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to CLE 35 for 9 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 35. Penalty on CLE-26-M.Harden, Illegal Contact, declined. Penalty on CLE-8-J.Verse, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.
Q105:21 (5:21) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 15-B.Skowronek. Play 581 (5:21) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 15-B.Skowronek.
Q105:16 (5:16) 30-J.Warren left guard to CLE 11 for 9 yards (7-T.Campbell). Play 604 (5:16) 30-J.Warren left guard to CLE 11 for 9 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q104:32 (4:32) 21-T.Homer right guard to CLE 9 for 2 yards (57-I.McGuire). Play 626 (4:32) 21-T.Homer right guard to CLE 9 for 2 yards (57-I.McGuire).
Q103:47 (3:47) 21-T.Homer up the middle to CLE 12 for -3 yards (96-M.Collins, 5-Q.Williams). Play 648 (3:47) 21-T.Homer up the middle to CLE 12 for -3 yards (96-M.Collins, 5-Q.Williams).
Q103:03 (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 14-R.Wilson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 675 (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 14-R.Wilson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q102:59 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 701 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q102:59 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CLE 35. Play 716 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CLE 35.
Q102:59 (2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 44 for 21 yards (3-J.Brisker) [97-C.Heyward]. Play 740 (2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 44 for 21 yards (3-J.Brisker) [97-C.Heyward].
Q102:21 (2:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Boston (35-J.Dean). Play 765 (2:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Boston (35-J.Dean).
Q102:16 (2:16) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left end to PIT 43 for 1 yard (90-T.Watt). Play 788 (2:16) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left end to PIT 43 for 1 yard (90-T.Watt).
Q101:36 (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Boston (22-A.Samuel). Play 810 (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Boston (22-A.Samuel).
Q101:29 (1:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to PIT 1, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-24-D.Thomas. Play 833 (1:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to PIT 1, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-24-D.Thomas.
Q101:21 (1:21) PENALTY on CLE-8-J.Verse, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 1 - No Play. Play 853 (1:21) PENALTY on CLE-8-J.Verse, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 1 - No Play.
Q101:21 (1:21) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 14 for 8 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 887 (1:21) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 14 for 8 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q100:37 (:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren pushed ob at PIT 23 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger, 21-D.Ward). Play 909 (:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren pushed ob at PIT 23 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger, 21-D.Ward).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 939 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 29 for 6 yards (5-Q.Williams; 28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 959 (15:00) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 29 for 6 yards (5-Q.Williams; 28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q214:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward (54-S.Williams) at CLE 44. 21-D.Ward to CLE 44 for no gain (11-M.Pittman). Play 981 (14:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward (54-S.Williams) at CLE 44. 21-D.Ward to CLE 44 for no gain (11-M.Pittman).
Q214:11 (14:11) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 47 for 3 yards (51-N.Herbig). Play 1008 (14:11) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 47 for 3 yards (51-N.Herbig).
Q213:36 (13:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at PIT 40 for 13 yards (3-J.Brisker; 35-J.Dean). Play 1030 (13:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at PIT 40 for 13 yards (3-J.Brisker; 35-J.Dean).
Q213:07 (13:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 28 for 12 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 22-A.Samuel). Play 1060 (13:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 28 for 12 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 22-A.Samuel).
Q212:22 (12:22) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1085 (12:22) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q212:14 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 1108 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q212:14 25-A.Szmyt kicks 62 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for 20 yards (31-D.McMillon). Play 1123 25-A.Szmyt kicks 62 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for 20 yards (31-D.McMillon).
Q212:09 (12:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to PIT 23 for no gain (33-R.Hickman; 98-A.Huntington). Play 1164 (12:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to PIT 23 for no gain (33-R.Hickman; 98-A.Huntington).
Q211:34 (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 28 for 5 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 1189 (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 28 for 5 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q210:50 (10:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 4-D.Metcalf (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 1214 (10:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 4-D.Metcalf (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q210:46 (10:46) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. Play 1237 (10:46) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
Q210:38 (10:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-D.Boston to PIT 14 for 60 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 1257 (10:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-D.Boston to PIT 14 for 60 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q209:50 Timeout #1 by CLE at 09:50. Play 1306 Timeout #1 by CLE at 09:50.
Q209:50 (9:50) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at PIT 9 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen). Play 1294 (9:50) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at PIT 9 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen).
Q209:12 (9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 2 for 7 yards (94-Y.Black). Play 1331 (9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 2 for 7 yards (94-Y.Black).
Q208:33 (8:33) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1356 (8:33) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q208:28 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 1381 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q208:28 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 35. Play 1396 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 35.
Q208:28 (8:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 44 for 9 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 1420 (8:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 44 for 9 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q207:50 (7:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 46 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse; 96-M.Collins). Play 1445 (7:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 46 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse; 96-M.Collins).
Q207:19 (7:19) (No Huddle) 30-J.Warren left end to CLE 30 for 24 yards (7-T.Campbell; 54-S.Williams). Play 1467 (7:19) (No Huddle) 30-J.Warren left end to CLE 30 for 24 yards (7-T.Campbell; 54-S.Williams).
Q206:46 (6:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Pittman (7-T.Campbell). Play 1489 (6:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Pittman (7-T.Campbell).
Q206:43 (6:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at CLE 24 for 6 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 1512 (6:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at CLE 24 for 6 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q206:06 (6:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 30 for -6 yards (57-I.McGuire). Play 1542 (6:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 30 for -6 yards (57-I.McGuire).
Q205:26 (5:26) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 1562 (5:26) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q205:21 (5:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 45 for 7 yards (97-C.Heyward). PIT-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. Play 1583 (5:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 45 for 7 yards (97-C.Heyward). PIT-35-J.Dean was injured during the play.
Q204:53 (4:53) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to CLE 47 for 2 yards (51-N.Herbig; 97-C.Heyward). Play 1618 (4:53) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left tackle to CLE 47 for 2 yards (51-N.Herbig; 97-C.Heyward).
Q204:22 (4:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-56-L.Wypler, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play. Play 1640 (4:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-56-L.Wypler, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play.
Q204:00 (4:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston to PIT 49 for 9 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 1684 (4:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston to PIT 49 for 9 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q203:22 (3:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 1709 (3:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q203:13 (3:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 24 for 25 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 1732 (3:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 24 for 25 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q202:24 (2:24) 10-Q.Judkins left end to PIT 23 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward; 6-P.Queen). Play 1757 (2:24) 10-Q.Judkins left end to PIT 23 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward; 6-P.Queen).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-Q.Judkins pushed ob at PIT 14 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen). Play 1779 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-Q.Judkins pushed ob at PIT 14 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen).
Q201:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to PIT 10 for 4 yards (94-Y.Black). Play 1816 (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to PIT 10 for 4 yards (94-Y.Black).
Q201:47 Timeout #1 by PIT at 01:47. Play 1850 Timeout #1 by PIT at 01:47.
Q201:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at PIT 4 for 6 yards. Penalty on PIT-6-P.Queen, Defensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at PIT 5 for 5 yards. PENALTY on PIT-6-P.Queen, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 10 - No Play. Play 1838 (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at PIT 4 for 6 yards. Penalty on PIT-6-P.Queen, Defensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at PIT 5 for 5 yards. PENALTY on PIT-6-P.Queen, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 10 - No Play.
Q201:39 (1:39) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 1 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 1891 (1:39) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 1 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q201:29 Timeout #2 by PIT at 01:29. Play 1969 Timeout #2 by PIT at 01:29.
Q201:29 (1:29) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to PIT 2 for -1 yards (56-A.Highsmith, 97-C.Heyward). Play 1957 (1:29) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to PIT 2 for -1 yards (56-A.Highsmith, 97-C.Heyward).
Q201:25 Timeout #3 by PIT at 01:25. Play 1998 Timeout #3 by PIT at 01:25.
Q201:25 (1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 1986 (1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q201:22 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 2030 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q201:22 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 1. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 28 for 27 yards (98-A.Huntington; 28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 2045 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 1. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 28 for 27 yards (98-A.Huntington; 28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q201:14 (1:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth. CLE-51-M.Hall was injured during the play. Play 2075 (1:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth. CLE-51-M.Hall was injured during the play.
Q201:06 Timeout #2 by CLE at 01:06. Play 2113 Timeout #2 by CLE at 01:06.
Q201:06 (1:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 14-R.Wilson to CLE 23 for 49 yards (7-T.Campbell). Play 2098 (1:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 14-R.Wilson to CLE 23 for 49 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q200:37 (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 14-R.Wilson [8-J.Verse]. PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 23 - No Play. Play 2133 (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 14-R.Wilson [8-J.Verse]. PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 23 - No Play.
Q200:32 (:32) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 24 for -6 yards (98-A.Huntington). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 18 - No Play. Play 2167 (:32) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 24 for -6 yards (98-A.Huntington). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 18 - No Play.
Q200:26 (:26) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 14-R.Wilson [98-A.Huntington]. Play 2198 (:26) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 14-R.Wilson [98-A.Huntington].
Q200:22 (:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren (5-Q.Williams). Play 2221 (:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren (5-Q.Williams).
Q200:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle [97-D.Barnett]. Play 2249 (:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle [97-D.Barnett].
Q200:12 (:12) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 2272 (:12) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q200:08 9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 2. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 31 for 29 yards (31-L.Nichols). PENALTY on CLE-59-W.Reid, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 26. Play 2292 9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 2. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 31 for 29 yards (31-L.Nichols). PENALTY on CLE-59-W.Reid, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 26.
Q200:03 (:03) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 15 for -1 yards. Play 2326 (:03) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 15 for -1 yards.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2348 Q315:00 25-A.Szmyt kicks 55 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 10. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 35 for 25 yards (11-M.Corley). Play 2368 25-A.Szmyt kicks 55 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 10. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 35 for 25 yards (11-M.Corley).
Q314:55 (14:55) 30-J.Warren left end to PIT 34 for -1 yards (8-J.Verse). Play 2411 (14:55) 30-J.Warren left end to PIT 34 for -1 yards (8-J.Verse).
Q314:23 (14:23) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 35 for 1 yard (96-M.Collins; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 2433 (14:23) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 35 for 1 yard (96-M.Collins; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q313:40 (13:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren. Play 2455 (13:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren.
Q313:34 (13:34) 19-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 22 for 14 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CLE 8. Play 2478 (13:34) 19-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 22 for 14 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CLE 8.
Q313:22 (13:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 9 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 4 - No Play. Play 2515 (13:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 9 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 4 - No Play.
Q312:57 (12:57) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 10 for 1 yard (95-K.Benton; 41-P.Wilson). Play 2551 (12:57) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 10 for 1 yard (95-K.Benton; 41-P.Wilson).
Q312:20 (12:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 15 for 5 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 2573 (12:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 15 for 5 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q311:35 (11:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 1-K.Concepcion (23-D.Everette). Play 2598 (11:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 1-K.Concepcion (23-D.Everette).
Q311:30 (11:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 17 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson; 3-J.Brisker). Play 2621 (11:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 17 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson; 3-J.Brisker).
Q310:41 (10:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-1-K.Concepcion, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 17 - No Play. Play 2646 (10:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-1-K.Concepcion, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 17 - No Play.
Q310:24 (10:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 10-Q.Judkins (90-T.Watt). Play 2670 (10:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 10-Q.Judkins (90-T.Watt).
Q310:21 (10:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to PIT 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 43 for 15 yards (24-D.Thomas; 31-D.McMillon). Play 2705 (10:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to PIT 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 43 for 15 yards (24-D.Thomas; 31-D.McMillon).
Q310:10 (10:10) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 48 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman). Play 2731 (10:10) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 48 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman).
Q309:33 (9:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 2760 (9:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q309:28 (9:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 45 for -3 yards (98-A.Huntington). Play 2794 (9:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 45 for -3 yards (98-A.Huntington).
Q308:50 (8:50) 19-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 16 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 2814 (8:50) 19-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 16 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q308:38 (8:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end to CLE 23 for 7 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 2845 (8:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end to CLE 23 for 7 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q308:03 (8:03) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 32 for 9 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 2874 (8:03) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 32 for 9 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q307:21 (7:21) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders left guard to CLE 38 for 6 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 2896 (7:21) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders left guard to CLE 38 for 6 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q306:46 (6:46) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 47 for 9 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 2918 (6:46) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 47 for 9 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q306:09 (6:09) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (90-T.Watt). Play 2940 (6:09) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (90-T.Watt).
Q305:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 41 for 9 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 2962 (5:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 41 for 9 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q304:56 (4:56) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders right guard to PIT 38 for 3 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 69-S.Joseph). Play 2987 (4:56) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders right guard to PIT 38 for 3 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 69-S.Joseph).
Q304:19 (4:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle to PIT 43 for -5 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at 50. Play 3014 (4:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle to PIT 43 for -5 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at 50.
Q304:13 (4:13) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 15-B.Skowronek to CLE 43 for 7 yards (7-T.Campbell). ** Injury Update: CLE-51-M.Hall has returned to the game. Play 3052 (4:13) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 15-B.Skowronek to CLE 43 for 7 yards (7-T.Campbell). ** Injury Update: CLE-51-M.Hall has returned to the game.
Q303:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to CLE 30 for 13 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 3084 (3:29) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to CLE 30 for 13 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q302:36 (2:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT-71-M.Iheanachor, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 30 - No Play. Play 3109 (2:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT-71-M.Iheanachor, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 30 - No Play.
Q302:16 (2:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson [54-S.Williams]. Play 3133 (2:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson [54-S.Williams].
Q302:12 (2:12) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf [98-A.Huntington]. Play 3167 (2:12) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf [98-A.Huntington].
Q302:04 (2:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 45 for -10 yards (51-M.Hall). Play 3190 (2:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 45 for -10 yards (51-M.Hall).
Q301:21 (1:21) 19-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. Play 3210 (1:21) 19-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
Q301:13 (1:13) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 25 for 5 yards (94-Y.Black; 69-S.Joseph). Play 3228 (1:13) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 25 for 5 yards (94-Y.Black; 69-S.Joseph).
Q300:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 28 for 3 yards (97-C.Heyward). Play 3257 (:38) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 28 for 3 yards (97-C.Heyward).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3279 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 35 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 3299 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 35 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen; 28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q414:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Spears-Jennings [33-J.Sawyer] at PIT 23. 28-R.Spears-Jennings to PIT 23 for no gain (12-D.Boston). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at CLE 35 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass was not tipped ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Spears-Jennings (33-J.Sawyer) [33-J.Sawyer] at PIT 23. 28-R.Spears-Jennings to PIT 23 for no gain (12-D.Boston). Play 3321 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Spears-Jennings [33-J.Sawyer] at PIT 23. 28-R.Spears-Jennings to PIT 23 for no gain (12-D.Boston). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at CLE 35 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass was not tipped ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Spears-Jennings (33-J.Sawyer) [33-J.Sawyer] at PIT 23. 28-R.Spears-Jennings to PIT 23 for no gain (12-D.Boston).
Q414:11 (14:11) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 30 for 7 yards (57-I.McGuire; 28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 3359 (14:11) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 30 for 7 yards (57-I.McGuire; 28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q413:36 (13:36) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 33 for 3 yards (7-T.Campbell). PENALTY on PIT-11-M.Pittman, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 30 - No Play. Play 3424 (13:36) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 33 for 3 yards (7-T.Campbell). PENALTY on PIT-11-M.Pittman, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 30 - No Play.
Q413:07 (13:07) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 4-D.Metcalf to CLE 32 for 43 yards (26-M.Harden) [21-D.Ward]. Play 3457 (13:07) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 4-D.Metcalf to CLE 32 for 43 yards (26-M.Harden) [21-D.Ward].
Q412:27 (12:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 36 for -4 yards (54-S.Williams). Play 3482 (12:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 36 for -4 yards (54-S.Williams).
Q411:42 (11:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to CLE 23 for 13 yards (9-G.Delpit). CLE-9-G.Delpit was injured during the play. Play 3502 (11:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to CLE 23 for 13 yards (9-G.Delpit). CLE-9-G.Delpit was injured during the play.
Q410:57 (10:57) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to CLE 21 for 2 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 3527 (10:57) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to CLE 21 for 2 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q410:16 (10:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-D.Washington for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3552 (10:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-D.Washington for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q410:10 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-A.Rodgers pass to 30-J.Warren is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS. ** Injury Update: CLE-9-G.Delpit has returned to the game. Play 3578 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-A.Rodgers pass to 30-J.Warren is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS. ** Injury Update: CLE-9-G.Delpit has returned to the game.
Q410:10 9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 1. 11-M.Corley to CLE 34 for 33 yards (55-C.Holcomb). Play 3591 9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 1. 11-M.Corley to CLE 34 for 33 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
Q410:04 (10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 30 for -4 yards (90-T.Watt). Play 3624 (10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 30 for -4 yards (90-T.Watt).
Q409:26 (9:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 40 for 10 yards (95-K.Benton). Play 3644 (9:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 40 for 10 yards (95-K.Benton).
Q408:45 (8:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to PIT 39 for 21 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on PIT-22-A.Samuel, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 39. Play 3669 (8:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to PIT 39 for 21 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on PIT-22-A.Samuel, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 39.
Q408:19 (8:19) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to PIT 33 for 1 yard (95-K.Benton). Play 3702 (8:19) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to PIT 33 for 1 yard (95-K.Benton).
Q407:43 (7:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 44-H.Fannin. Play 3724 (7:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 44-H.Fannin.
Q407:39 Timeout #1 by CLE at 07:39. Play 3759 Timeout #1 by CLE at 07:39.
Q407:39 (7:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end to PIT 31 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward), and recovers at PIT 26. Play 3747 (7:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end to PIT 31 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward), and recovers at PIT 26.
Q406:42 (6:42) 25-A.Szmyt 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 3792 (6:42) 25-A.Szmyt 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q406:37 25-A.Szmyt kicks 57 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 8. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 32 for 24 yards (24-D.Thomas). Play 3812 25-A.Szmyt kicks 57 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 8. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 32 for 24 yards (24-D.Thomas).
Q406:33 (6:33) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 37 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 98-A.Huntington). Play 3847 (6:33) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 37 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 98-A.Huntington).
Q405:51 (5:51) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Warren. Play 3869 (5:51) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Warren.
Q405:44 (5:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 88-P.Freiermuth. Play 3892 (5:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 88-P.Freiermuth.
Q405:40 (5:40) 19-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. Play 3915 (5:40) 19-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.
Q405:31 (5:31) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CLE 2 for 1 yard (94-Y.Black; 97-C.Heyward). Penalty on CLE-1-K.Concepcion, Illegal Shift, declined. Play 3935 (5:31) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CLE 2 for 1 yard (94-Y.Black; 97-C.Heyward). Penalty on CLE-1-K.Concepcion, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q405:18 (5:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to CLE 17 for 15 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 3968 (5:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to CLE 17 for 15 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q404:38 (4:38) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 18 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker; 94-Y.Black). Play 3993 (4:38) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CLE 18 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker; 94-Y.Black).
Q403:54 (3:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 19 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker). Play 4015 (3:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 19 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker).
Q403:47 Timeout #1 by PIT at 03:47. Play 4052 Timeout #1 by PIT at 03:47.
Q403:47 (3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 44-H.Fannin. Play 4040 (3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 44-H.Fannin.
Q403:41 (3:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 81 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. Play 4070 (3:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 81 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
Q403:32 (3:32) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 14-R.Wilson to PIT 33 for 13 yards (26-M.Harden). PIT-14-R.Wilson was injured during the play. Play 4088 (3:32) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 14-R.Wilson to PIT 33 for 13 yards (26-M.Harden). PIT-14-R.Wilson was injured during the play.
Q402:46 (2:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at CLE 45 for 22 yards (7-T.Campbell). Play 4113 (2:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at CLE 45 for 22 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q402:39 (2:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to CLE 39 for 6 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 4146 (2:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to CLE 39 for 6 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q402:14 (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at CLE 11 for 28 yards (7-T.Campbell). CLE-7-T.Campbell was injured during the play. Play 4171 (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at CLE 11 for 28 yards (7-T.Campbell). CLE-7-T.Campbell was injured during the play.
Q402:09 (2:09) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play. Play 4209 (2:09) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play.
Q402:09 (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-G.Bernard to CLE 11 for 5 yards (29-M.Blackmon). Play 4238 (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-G.Bernard to CLE 11 for 5 yards (29-M.Blackmon).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Washington (33-R.Hickman). ** Injury Update: CLE-7-T.Campbell has returned to the game. Play 4263 (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Washington (33-R.Hickman). ** Injury Update: CLE-7-T.Campbell has returned to the game.
Q401:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington. Play 4293 (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington.
Q401:51 (1:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington (28-E.McNeil-Warren). PENALTY on CLE-28-E.McNeil-Warren, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play. Play 4319 (1:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington (28-E.McNeil-Warren). PENALTY on CLE-28-E.McNeil-Warren, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play.
Q401:46 (1:46) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4353 (1:46) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:42 (Pass formation) PENALTY on CLE-8-J.Verse, Defensive Offside, 1 yard, enforced at CLE 2 - No Play. Play 4379 (Pass formation) PENALTY on CLE-8-J.Verse, Defensive Offside, 1 yard, enforced at CLE 2 - No Play.
Q401:42 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-A.Rodgers rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 4399 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-A.Rodgers rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q401:42 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 0. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 26 for 26 yards (31-L.Nichols). Play 4412 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 0. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 26 for 26 yards (31-L.Nichols).
Q401:36 (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 43 for 17 yards (22-A.Samuel). Play 4435 (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 43 for 17 yards (22-A.Samuel).
Q401:12 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-77-Z.Johnson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 43 - No Play. 10-second runoff. Play 4460 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-77-Z.Johnson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 43 - No Play. 10-second runoff.
Q401:00 (1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at 50 for 12 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 4486 (1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at 50 for 12 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q400:55 (:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy ran ob at PIT 40 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 4516 (:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy ran ob at PIT 40 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q400:49 (:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 34 for 6 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 4546 (:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 34 for 6 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q400:38 Timeout #2 by PIT at 00:38. Play 4583 Timeout #2 by PIT at 00:38.
Q400:38 (:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at PIT 38 for -4 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 4571 (:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at PIT 38 for -4 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q400:19 Timeout #2 by CLE at 00:19. Play 4618 Timeout #2 by CLE at 00:19.
Q400:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Concepcion. Play 4606 (:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Concepcion.
Q400:15 (:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 4636 (:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q400:10 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 35. Play 4656 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 35.
Q400:10 (:10) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 14-R.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 9-G.Delpit at CLE 18. 9-G.Delpit to CLE 18 for no gain (14-R.Wilson). ** Injury Update: PIT-14-R.Wilson has returned to the game. Play 4673 (:10) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 14-R.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 9-G.Delpit at CLE 18. 9-G.Delpit to CLE 18 for no gain (14-R.Wilson). ** Injury Update: PIT-14-R.Wilson has returned to the game.
Q400:01 (:01) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 17 for -1 yards. Play 4700 (:01) 4-D.Watson kneels to CLE 17 for -1 yards.
63
Elapsed share 0.9055555555555556
Game seconds remaining 340
Half seconds remaining 340
Quarter seconds remaining 340
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1204834928406888 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.12048/ NA/0.09044 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:09 Penalty · PIT (2:09) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE 2.48 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 15
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 129
Half seconds remaining 129
Quarter seconds remaining 129
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 11
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 129
Half seconds remaining 129
Quarter seconds remaining 129
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE 0.6 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 15
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 129
Half seconds remaining 129
Quarter seconds remaining 129
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 11
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 129
Half seconds remaining 129
Quarter seconds remaining 129
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q204:22 Penalty · CLE (4:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-56-L.Wypler, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE -2.24 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2062
Half seconds remaining 262
Quarter seconds remaining 262
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2062
Half seconds remaining 262
Quarter seconds remaining 262
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE -0.99 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2062
Half seconds remaining 262
Quarter seconds remaining 262
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2062
Half seconds remaining 262
Quarter seconds remaining 262
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q109:33 Penalty · PIT (9:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson. PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE -2.2 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3266
Half seconds remaining 1466
Quarter seconds remaining 566
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3266
Half seconds remaining 1466
Quarter seconds remaining 566
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE -0.93 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3266
Half seconds remaining 1466
Quarter seconds remaining 566
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3266
Half seconds remaining 1466
Quarter seconds remaining 566
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q310:41 Penalty · CLE (10:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-1-K.Concepcion, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 17 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE -1.44 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 13
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 88
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 1541
Half seconds remaining 1541
Quarter seconds remaining 641
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 83
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 1541
Half seconds remaining 1541
Quarter seconds remaining 641
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE -0.78 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 13
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 88
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 1541
Half seconds remaining 1541
Quarter seconds remaining 641
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 83
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 1541
Half seconds remaining 1541
Quarter seconds remaining 641
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q112:59 Fourth down · CLE (12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to PIT 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 22 for 15 yards (86-B.Whiteheart). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 1.29 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -2.185503610686062
Yardline 100 75
Elapsed share 0.03361111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3479
Half seconds remaining 1679
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 779
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3817702680335994 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38177/ NA/0.36882 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:04 Penalty · PIT (12:04) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT-11-M.Pittman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 26 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE 1.21 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 11
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 79
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3424
Half seconds remaining 1624
Quarter seconds remaining 724
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 6
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3424
Half seconds remaining 1624
Quarter seconds remaining 724
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE 0.86 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 11
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 79
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3424
Half seconds remaining 1624
Quarter seconds remaining 724
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 6
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3424
Half seconds remaining 1624
Quarter seconds remaining 724
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q302:36 Penalty · PIT (2:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PIT-71-M.Iheanachor, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE 0.81 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 15
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1056
Half seconds remaining 1056
Quarter seconds remaining 156
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1056
Half seconds remaining 1056
Quarter seconds remaining 156
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE 0.71 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 15
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1056
Half seconds remaining 1056
Quarter seconds remaining 156
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1056
Half seconds remaining 1056
Quarter seconds remaining 156
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q108:02 Penalty · PIT (8:02) PENALTY on CLE-51-M.Hall, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE -0.64 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 5
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3182
Half seconds remaining 1382
Quarter seconds remaining 482
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3182
Half seconds remaining 1382
Quarter seconds remaining 482
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE -0.54 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 5
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3182
Half seconds remaining 1382
Quarter seconds remaining 482
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3182
Half seconds remaining 1382
Quarter seconds remaining 482
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q101:21 Penalty · PIT (1:21) PENALTY on CLE-8-J.Verse, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 1 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE 0.41 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 5
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2781
Half seconds remaining 981
Quarter seconds remaining 81
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2781
Half seconds remaining 981
Quarter seconds remaining 81
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE -0.87 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 5
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2781
Half seconds remaining 981
Quarter seconds remaining 81
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2781
Half seconds remaining 981
Quarter seconds remaining 81
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q101:29 Fourth down · CLE (1:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to PIT 1, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-24-D.Thomas. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.015295416375552
Yardline 100 43
Elapsed share 0.2252777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2789
Half seconds remaining 989
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 89
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2196950145550624 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.21762/0.20185/0.21970 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:46 Fourth down · PIT (10:46) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.6935503144728211
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.3205555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2446
Half seconds remaining 646
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 646
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5819750088472633 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57206/ NA/0.58198 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 95 recorded events Q205:26 Kick · PIT (5:26) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.4860289709239759
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.4094444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2126
Half seconds remaining 326
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 326
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4106580929610482 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38703/0.41066/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PIT -2.32 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q200:12 Kick · PIT (:12) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.3428795928180211
Yardline 100 13
Elapsed share 0.4966666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q310:21 Fourth down · CLE (10:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to PIT 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 43 for 15 yards (24-D.Thomas; 31-D.McMillon). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.2481531288991141
Yardline 100 88
Elapsed share 0.5775
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q308:50 Fourth down · PIT (8:50) 19-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 16 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson). + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.2242888880537809
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.6027777777777777
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0 Q301:21 Fourth down · PIT (1:21) 19-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 25
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.1361893246729746
Yardline 100 45
Elapsed share 0.7275
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q406:42 Kick · CLE (6:42) 25-A.Szmyt 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.07157262564889613
Yardline 100 26
Elapsed share 0.8883333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q403:41 Fourth down · CLE (3:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 81 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team CLE
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.05853363617849747
Yardline 100 81
Elapsed share 0.9386111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q115:00 Penalty · CLE 9-C.Boswell kicks 55 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 10. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 31 for 21 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 33-J.Sawyer). PENALTY on CLE-59-W.Reid, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 26. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:02 Penalty · PIT (10:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to 50 for 7 yards (9-G.Delpit; 49-C.Schwesinger). PENALTY on PIT-4-D.Metcalf, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at 50. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q105:49 Penalty · PIT (5:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to CLE 35 for 9 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 35. Penalty on CLE-26-M.Harden, Illegal Contact, declined. Penalty on CLE-8-J.Verse, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q102:59 Kick · PIT 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Extra point points above expectation PIT 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:14 Kick · CLE 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Extra point points above expectation CLE 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q208:28 Kick · CLE 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Extra point points above expectation CLE 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q201:47 Penalty · CLE (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at PIT 4 for 6 yards. Penalty on PIT-6-P.Queen, Defensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at PIT 5 for 5 yards. PENALTY on PIT-6-P.Queen, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 10 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:25 Fourth down · CLE (1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q201:22 Kick · CLE 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Extra point points above expectation CLE 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q200:37 Penalty · PIT (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 14-R.Wilson [8-J.Verse]. PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:32 Penalty · PIT (:32) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 24 for -6 yards (98-A.Huntington). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:08 Penalty · CLE 9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to CLE 2. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 31 for 29 yards (31-L.Nichols). PENALTY on CLE-59-W.Reid, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 26. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:34 Penalty · PIT (13:34) 19-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 22 for 14 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CLE 8. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:22 Penalty · CLE (13:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 9 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 4 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:19 Fumble · CLE (4:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle to PIT 43 for -5 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at 50. + Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE 0.27 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation PIT -0.27 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q414:19 Fourth down · CLE (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Spears-Jennings [33-J.Sawyer] at PIT 23. 28-R.Spears-Jennings to PIT 23 for no gain (12-D.Boston). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at CLE 35 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass was not tipped ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Spears-Jennings (33-J.Sawyer) [33-J.Sawyer] at PIT 23. 28-R.Spears-Jennings to PIT 23 for no gain (12-D.Boston). + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Interception worthy throws CLE 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q413:36 Penalty · PIT (13:36) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 33 for 3 yards (7-T.Campbell). PENALTY on PIT-11-M.Pittman, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:45 Penalty · CLE (8:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to PIT 39 for 21 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on PIT-22-A.Samuel, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 39. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:39 Fumble · CLE (7:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end to PIT 31 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward). FUMBLES (97-C.Heyward), and recovers at PIT 26. + Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE 0.27 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation PIT -0.27 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q405:31 Fourth down · CLE (5:31) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CLE 2 for 1 yard (94-Y.Black; 97-C.Heyward). Penalty on CLE-1-K.Concepcion, Illegal Shift, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:51 Penalty · PIT (1:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington (28-E.McNeil-Warren). PENALTY on CLE-28-E.McNeil-Warren, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:42 Penalty · PIT (Pass formation) PENALTY on CLE-8-J.Verse, Defensive Offside, 1 yard, enforced at CLE 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:12 Penalty · CLE (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-77-Z.Johnson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 43 - No Play. 10-second runoff. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:15 Kick · CLE (:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE 1.5 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q200:22 Execution · PIT (:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren (5-Q.Williams). + Charted drops PIT 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q214:17 Execution · PIT (14:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward (54-S.Williams) at CLE 44. 21-D.Ward to CLE 44 for no gain (11-M.Pittman). + Interception worthy throws PIT 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Contested targets PIT 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q405:51 Execution · PIT (5:51) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Warren. + Interception worthy throws PIT 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q410:04 Execution · CLE (10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 30 for -4 yards (90-T.Watt). + QB attributed sacks CLE 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q400:38 Execution · CLE (:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at PIT 38 for -4 yards (41-P.Wilson). + QB attributed sacks CLE 2 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q106:31 Execution · PIT (6:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 44 for -7 yards (96-M.Collins). + QB attributed sacks PIT 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q206:06 Execution · PIT (6:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 30 for -6 yards (57-I.McGuire). + QB attributed sacks PIT 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q309:28 Execution · PIT (9:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 45 for -3 yards (98-A.Huntington). + QB attributed sacks PIT 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q302:04 Execution · PIT (2:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 45 for -10 yards (51-M.Hall). + QB attributed sacks PIT 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q412:27 Execution · PIT (12:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at CLE 36 for -4 yards (54-S.Williams). + QB attributed sacks PIT 5 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q114:54 Execution · CLE (14:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to CLE 21 for 5 yards (22-A.Samuel). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q113:44 Execution · CLE (13:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 0-I.Bond to CLE 25 for 2 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt]. + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q102:59 Execution · CLE (2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 44 for 21 yards (3-J.Brisker) [97-C.Heyward]. + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q213:36 Execution · CLE (13:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at PIT 40 for 13 yards (3-J.Brisker; 35-J.Dean). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q213:07 Execution · CLE (13:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 28 for 12 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 22-A.Samuel). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q210:38 Execution · CLE (10:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-D.Boston to PIT 14 for 60 yards (23-D.Everette). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q209:50 Execution · CLE (9:50) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at PIT 9 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q209:12 Execution · CLE (9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 2 for 7 yards (94-Y.Black). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q205:21 Execution · CLE (5:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 45 for 7 yards (97-C.Heyward). PIT-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q204:00 Execution · CLE (4:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston to PIT 49 for 9 yards (23-D.Everette). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q203:22 Execution · CLE (3:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (28-R.Spears-Jennings). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q203:13 Execution · CLE (3:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 24 for 25 yards (23-D.Everette). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Execution · CLE (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-Q.Judkins pushed ob at PIT 14 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q201:39 Execution · CLE (1:39) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to PIT 1 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q312:20 Execution · CLE (12:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 15 for 5 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q311:35 Execution · CLE (11:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 1-K.Concepcion (23-D.Everette). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q311:30 Execution · CLE (11:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 17 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson; 3-J.Brisker). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q305:30 Execution · CLE (5:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 41 for 9 yards (41-P.Wilson). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q409:26 Execution · CLE (9:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 40 for 10 yards (95-K.Benton). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q405:18 Execution · CLE (5:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to CLE 17 for 15 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q403:54 Execution · CLE (3:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 19 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q401:36 Execution · CLE (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 43 for 17 yards (22-A.Samuel). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions CLE 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Q401:00 Execution · CLE (1:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at 50 for 12 yards (3-J.Brisker). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q400:55 Execution · CLE (:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy ran ob at PIT 40 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q400:49 Execution · CLE (:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to PIT 34 for 6 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). + Catchable targets CLE 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q112:04 Execution · PIT (12:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 36 for 15 yards (33-R.Hickman). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q110:45 Execution · PIT (10:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington to PIT 43 for 6 yards (33-R.Hickman; 9-G.Delpit). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q108:46 Execution · PIT (8:46) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Warren to CLE 49 for 11 yards (5-Q.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q103:03 Execution · PIT (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 14-R.Wilson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q100:37 Execution · PIT (:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren pushed ob at PIT 23 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger, 21-D.Ward). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q212:09 Execution · PIT (12:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to PIT 23 for no gain (33-R.Hickman; 98-A.Huntington). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q211:34 Execution · PIT (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 28 for 5 yards (9-G.Delpit). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q208:28 Execution · PIT (8:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 44 for 9 yards (9-G.Delpit). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q206:46 Execution · PIT (6:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Pittman (7-T.Campbell). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Contested targets PIT 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q206:43 Execution · PIT (6:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at CLE 24 for 6 yards (21-D.Ward). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q201:06 Execution · PIT (1:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 14-R.Wilson to CLE 23 for 49 yards (7-T.Campbell). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q309:33 Execution · PIT (9:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (28-E.McNeil-Warren). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Contested targets PIT 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q304:13 Execution · PIT (4:13) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 15-B.Skowronek to CLE 43 for 7 yards (7-T.Campbell). ** Injury Update: CLE-51-M.Hall has returned to the game. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q413:07 Execution · PIT (13:07) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 4-D.Metcalf to CLE 32 for 43 yards (26-M.Harden) [21-D.Ward]. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q411:42 Execution · PIT (11:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to CLE 23 for 13 yards (9-G.Delpit). CLE-9-G.Delpit was injured during the play. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q410:16 Execution · PIT (10:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-D.Washington for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q410:10 Execution · PIT TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-A.Rodgers pass to 30-J.Warren is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS. ** Injury Update: CLE-9-G.Delpit has returned to the game. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q403:32 Execution · PIT (3:32) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 14-R.Wilson to PIT 33 for 13 yards (26-M.Harden). PIT-14-R.Wilson was injured during the play. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q402:46 Execution · PIT (2:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at CLE 45 for 22 yards (7-T.Campbell). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Contested targets PIT 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions PIT 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Q402:39 Execution · PIT (2:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to CLE 39 for 6 yards (21-D.Ward). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q402:14 Execution · PIT (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at CLE 11 for 28 yards (7-T.Campbell). CLE-7-T.Campbell was injured during the play. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q402:09 Execution · PIT (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-G.Bernard to CLE 11 for 5 yards (29-M.Blackmon). + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q401:46 Execution · PIT (1:46) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets PIT 26 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q102:21 Execution · CLE (2:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Boston (35-J.Dean). + Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q101:36 Execution · CLE (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Boston (22-A.Samuel). + Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q310:24 Execution · CLE (10:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 10-Q.Judkins (90-T.Watt). + Contested targets CLE 10 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
Q112:09 Execution · PIT (12:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf. + Contested targets PIT 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q210:50 Execution · PIT (10:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 4-D.Metcalf (28-E.McNeil-Warren). + Contested targets PIT 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
Q402:00 Execution · PIT (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Washington (33-R.Hickman). ** Injury Update: CLE-7-T.Campbell has returned to the game. + Contested targets PIT 7 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled
nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 4:36 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 797fa1a99df50f92044e7e79d19db59ac2988e7843e995fdddd100ed3a94282fnflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5703ab3149d9be3ca9ae7e4ffa87411dcc9cccf0f542d3125b08a3e8b5eac391nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 f726aba00a87c82c3e98440c01414be9f36e7ef862776e1c01d31d9e715b0157Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: bef30ed7aafab731bfdb4c88545d118647c588b4cf490631e38a90f6d7b43a48
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Oct 2, 2026, 8:21 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 2, 2026, 5:36 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-14
Game seconds remaining 1812
Quarter seconds remaining 12
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.1855229497516991 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17650/0.18552/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PIT -2.32 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
11
Game seconds remaining 1521
Half seconds remaining 1521
Quarter seconds remaining 621
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7465717858048619 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69686/ NA/0.74657 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 1430
Half seconds remaining 1430
Quarter seconds remaining 530
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.192388480560581 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18917/ NA/0.19239 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-11
Game seconds remaining 981
Half seconds remaining 981
Quarter seconds remaining 81
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1309787985200822 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11602/0.12355/0.13098 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
5
Game seconds remaining 402
Half seconds remaining 402
Quarter seconds remaining 402
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7819968464651958 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77996/0.78200/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE 1.5 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
8
Game seconds remaining 221
Half seconds remaining 221
Quarter seconds remaining 221
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8628232777248249 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81894/ NA/0.86282 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 33/33 eligible events modeled
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 41/41 eligible events modeled