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Hmm 3 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Penalty patterns were this unusual in 11 of 779 comparison games. How this rating was calculated Hmm (3/5): The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: BAL by 15.3; actual result: BAL by 6.
The 9.3-point difference was matched or exceeded in 228 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 84.09%
Penalty pattern Hmm · 3/5 BAL minus TEN penalty-yard difference: 99 versus -0.1 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 11 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 4.62%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: BAL by 11.5; actual result: BAL by 6. The difference was 5.5 points.
4,831 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Baltimore Ravens by 11.5
Final margin Baltimore Ravens by 6
Difference 5.5 points
Tennessee Titans covered the spread.
4,831 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (66.4%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score BAL by 15.3
Actual final margin BAL by 6
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Baltimore Ravens chance to win during the game 146 preplay estimates across 175 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 29 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
BAL Observed ruling consequence -3.35 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Ruling expected points consequence -1.33 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 1 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 10:48 Recorded game event
Tennessee Titans · Play 1237 (10:48) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on BAL awarded TEN a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 6.3 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 175 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 175 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to TEN 2. 17-C.Dike to TEN 42 for 40 yards (29-C.Rivers). Play 40 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to TEN 2. 17-C.Dike to TEN 42 for 40 yards (29-C.Rivers).
Q114:53 (14:53) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 17-C.Dike ran ob at BAL 43 for 15 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Play 63 (14:53) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 17-C.Dike ran ob at BAL 43 for 15 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q114:18 (14:18) 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards (51-A.Schlottmann). Play 93 (14:18) 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards (51-A.Schlottmann).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 41 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q109:00 Penalty · TEN (9:00) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL -3.35 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3230
Half seconds remaining 1430
Quarter seconds remaining 530
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 29, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 accbce8b05ca0c920a79146b6726be4a42da0d8920217532023129cb68382aa0sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 1, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d61e1d222c8d61bd39387f2718fe788dcf0afecd818019b90fba79da2a698d92ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 4, 2026, 12:50 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 cbbe44e29207a21d5ba3e53f2f2d193498284678dbff6485ab8a262559ee4d9eThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
228 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 11 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Shawn Hochuli Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.9 accepted penalties for 110.2 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.5 / 54.4 yd per game. Away teams: 6.5 / 55.8 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Shawn Hochuli; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Baltimore Ravens · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Baltimore Ravens · Opponent penalties Opponent TEN was charged 5 penalties for 32 yards.
Tennessee Titans · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Tennessee Titans · Opponent penalties Opponent BAL was charged 13 penalties for 131 yards.
Explore the historical comparisons (1) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
Baltimore Ravens Historical context
Winning-profile context BAL won. Prior matching team-games: 336 wins, 435 losses, 3 ties among 774 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards 336 / 774 prior matching team-games were wins
435 losses · 3 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 146 model estimates across 175 recorded game entries.
29 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (175 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence -0.4 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Ruling expected points consequence -0.58 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence -2.36 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Ruling expected points consequence -1.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence -0.28 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Ruling expected points consequence -0.55 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence -3.04 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Ruling expected points consequence -3.98 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence -0.31 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Ruling expected points consequence -0.53 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence 0.17 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Ruling expected points consequence 0.62 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.90404/0.87038/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13380/ NA/0.15441 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11474/0.09136/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0.11 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02372/0.01928/0.02260 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97078/ NA/0.97174 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0.14 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98037/ NA/0.97897 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01918/0.01952/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97686/0.97231/0.97968 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97832/ NA/0.98165 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0.39 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01537/ NA/0.01149 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98425/ NA/0.98671 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00791/ NA/0.00855 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99670/0.99824/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00068/0.00000/0.00001 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
BAL Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.07 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
TEN Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.07 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
BAL Field goal points above expectation -0.97 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 36th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
TEN Field goal points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
BAL Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 77th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
TEN Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
BAL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 175 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
TEN Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 175 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
TEN Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.32 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TEN Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.92 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TEN Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.36 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 31 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TEN Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.37 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
31 of 31 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 31 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.78 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.85 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Pass interference called penalties above expectation 1.55 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
37 of 37 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 37 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q114:08 (14:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 14 for 23 yards (18-C.Flott). Play 120
(14:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 14 for 23 yards (18-C.Flott).
Q113:37 (13:37) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews. Play 145 (13:37) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.
Q113:30 (13:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 8 for 6 yards (53-A.Hill). Play 173 (13:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 8 for 6 yards (53-A.Hill).
Q112:48 (12:48) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 5 for 3 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers; 11-J.Johnson). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 202 (12:48) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 5 for 3 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers; 11-J.Johnson). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q112:13 (12:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 224 (12:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q112:09 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 254 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q112:09 33-T.Loop kicks 64 yards from BAL 35 to TEN 1. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 29 yards (29-C.Rivers). Play 269 33-T.Loop kicks 64 yards from BAL 35 to TEN 1. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 29 yards (29-C.Rivers).
Q112:02 (12:02) 20-T.Pollard right guard to TEN 35 for 5 yards (94-J.Jenkins). Play 299 (12:02) 20-T.Pollard right guard to TEN 35 for 5 yards (94-J.Jenkins).
Q111:25 (11:25) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 42 for 7 yards (9-Z.Young; 21-J.Hawkins). Play 321 (11:25) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 42 for 7 yards (9-Z.Young; 21-J.Hawkins).
Q110:48 (10:48) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to BAL 46 for 12 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 343 (10:48) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to BAL 46 for 12 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q110:06 (10:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 24 for 22 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 368 (10:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 24 for 22 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q109:31 (9:31) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard to BAL 23 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson; 44-M.Humphrey). Play 393 (9:31) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard to BAL 23 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson; 44-M.Humphrey).
Q109:00 (9:00) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play. Play 415 (9:00) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play.
Q108:50 (8:50) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears left end pushed ob at BAL 10 for 8 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 438 (8:50) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears left end pushed ob at BAL 10 for 8 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q108:10 (8:10) 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 8 for 2 yards (96-B.Washington; 32-T.Simpson). Play 477 (8:10) 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 8 for 2 yards (96-B.Washington; 32-T.Simpson).
Q107:25 (7:25) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to BAL 6 for 2 yards (92-N.Madubuike). Play 499 (7:25) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to BAL 6 for 2 yards (92-N.Madubuike).
Q106:44 (6:44) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to BAL 3 for 3 yards (32-T.Simpson; 0-R.Smith). Play 521 (6:44) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to BAL 3 for 3 yards (32-T.Simpson; 0-R.Smith).
Q106:01 (6:01) 20-T.Pollard right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 543 (6:01) 20-T.Pollard right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q105:56 6-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. Play 566 6-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
Q105:56 6-J.Slye kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35. Play 581 6-J.Slye kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35.
Q105:56 (5:56) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 34 for -1 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers, 50-C.Barton). Play 605 (5:56) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 34 for -1 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers, 50-C.Barton).
Q105:17 (5:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 81-D.Walker to TEN 47 for 19 yards (37-A.Hooker). Play 627 (5:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 81-D.Walker to TEN 47 for 19 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Q104:38 (4:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry to 50 for -3 yards (33-C.Gray, 50-C.Barton). Play 652 (4:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry to 50 for -3 yards (33-C.Gray, 50-C.Barton).
Q103:57 (3:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to TEN 47 for 3 yards (15-K.Faulk; 90-S.Thomas). Play 677 (3:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to TEN 47 for 3 yards (15-K.Faulk; 90-S.Thomas).
Q103:17 (3:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 45 for -8 yards (sack split by 57-J.Martin and 26-M.Harris). Play 699 (3:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 45 for -8 yards (sack split by 57-J.Martin and 26-M.Harris).
Q102:35 (2:35) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 30 for 20 yards (80-D.Smythe). PENALTY on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 15. Play 719 (2:35) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 30 for 20 yards (80-D.Smythe). PENALTY on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 15.
Q102:25 (2:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to TEN 19 for 11 yards (3-C.Awuzie). Play 761 (2:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to TEN 19 for 11 yards (3-C.Awuzie).
Q101:48 (1:48) 32-N.Singleton right guard to TEN 19 for no gain (93-C.Campbell). Play 793 (1:48) 32-N.Singleton right guard to TEN 19 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).
Q101:04 (1:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right. Play 815 (1:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right.
Q100:59 (:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 18 for -1 yards (29-C.Rivers) [15-M.Green]. Play 838 (:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 18 for -1 yards (29-C.Rivers) [15-M.Green].
Q100:17 (:17) 3-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. Play 863 (:17) 3-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
Q100:07 (:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 27 for 8 yards (37-A.Hooker). Play 882 (:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 27 for 8 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 907 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 31 for 4 yards (56-T.Jones; 33-C.Gray). Play 927 (15:00) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 31 for 4 yards (56-T.Jones; 33-C.Gray).
Q214:17 (14:17) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 45 for 14 yards (23-K.Winston). Play 949 (14:17) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 45 for 14 yards (23-K.Winston).
Q213:37 (13:37) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 88-M.Hibner to TEN 30 for 25 yards (24-A.Taylor). Play 971 (13:37) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 88-M.Hibner to TEN 30 for 25 yards (24-A.Taylor).
Q212:56 (12:56) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 19 for 11 yards (18-C.Flott; 23-K.Winston). Play 996 (12:56) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 19 for 11 yards (18-C.Flott; 23-K.Winston).
Q212:22 (12:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1018 (12:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q212:16 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 1044 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q212:16 33-T.Loop kicks 66 yards from BAL 35 to TEN -1. 17-C.Dike to TEN 35 for 36 yards (29-C.Rivers). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 35. Play 1059 33-T.Loop kicks 66 yards from BAL 35 to TEN -1. 17-C.Dike to TEN 35 for 36 yards (29-C.Rivers). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 35.
Q212:10 (12:10) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end pushed ob at TEN 27 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 27. Play 1106 (12:10) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end pushed ob at TEN 27 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 27.
Q211:48 (11:48) 4-W.Robinson right end pushed ob at TEN 43 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson). Play 1139 (11:48) 4-W.Robinson right end pushed ob at TEN 43 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson).
Q211:15 (11:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to BAL 35 for 22 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 0-R.Smith). Play 1166 (11:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to BAL 35 for 22 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 0-R.Smith).
Q210:55 (10:55) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 20-T.Pollard. Play 1191 (10:55) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 20-T.Pollard.
Q210:51 (10:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Tate (14-K.Hamilton). Play 1214 (10:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Tate (14-K.Hamilton).
Q210:48 Timeout #1 by TEN at 10:48. Play 1347 Timeout #1 by TEN at 10:48.
Q210:48 (10:48) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play. Play 1237 (10:48) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play.
Q210:48 (10:48) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to BAL 13 for 7 yards (92-N.Madubuike; 32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-95-T.Robinson, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 13. Play 1261 (10:48) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to BAL 13 for 7 yards (92-N.Madubuike; 32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-95-T.Robinson, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 13.
Q210:20 (10:20) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to BAL 5 for 3 yards (9-Z.Young; 94-J.Jenkins). Play 1299 (10:20) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to BAL 5 for 3 yards (9-Z.Young; 94-J.Jenkins).
Q209:40 (9:40) 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 3 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson; 0-R.Smith). Play 1326 (9:40) 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 3 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson; 0-R.Smith).
Q209:01 (9:01) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard to BAL 2 for 1 yard (3-C.Awuzie). Play 1355 (9:01) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard to BAL 2 for 1 yard (3-C.Awuzie).
Q208:20 (8:20) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-T.Pollard. 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike). Play 1377 (8:20) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-T.Pollard. 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike).
Q208:16 (8:16) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 2 for no gain (53-A.Hill; 98-J.Simmons). Play 1389 (8:16) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 2 for no gain (53-A.Hill; 98-J.Simmons).
Q207:40 (7:40) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-70-R.Rosengarten, False Start, 1 yard, enforced at BAL 2 - No Play. Play 1430 (7:40) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-70-R.Rosengarten, False Start, 1 yard, enforced at BAL 2 - No Play.
Q207:37 (7:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 8 for 7 yards (50-C.Barton; 53-A.Hill). Play 1454 (7:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 8 for 7 yards (50-C.Barton; 53-A.Hill).
Q206:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 14 for 6 yards (37-A.Hooker). Play 1479 (6:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 14 for 6 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Q206:11 (6:11) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 15 for 1 yard (50-C.Barton). Play 1504 (6:11) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 15 for 1 yard (50-C.Barton).
Q205:34 (5:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to BAL 43 for 28 yards (24-A.Taylor). Play 1526 (5:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to BAL 43 for 28 yards (24-A.Taylor).
Q204:44 (4:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 5 for 52 yards (50-C.Barton). Play 1551 (4:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 5 for 52 yards (50-C.Barton).
Q204:17 (4:17) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 3 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons). Play 1576 (4:17) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 3 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons).
Q203:36 (3:36) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1598 (3:36) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q203:32 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 1624 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q203:32 33-T.Loop kicks 66 yards from BAL 35 to TEN -1. 17-C.Dike to TEN 20 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 1639 33-T.Loop kicks 66 yards from BAL 35 to TEN -1. 17-C.Dike to TEN 20 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q203:27 (3:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to TEN 26 for 6 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 1669 (3:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to TEN 26 for 6 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q202:58 (2:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 0-C.Ridley to TEN 39 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 0-R.Smith). Play 1694 (2:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 0-C.Ridley to TEN 39 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 0-R.Smith).
Q202:20 (2:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate. PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at TEN 39 - No Play. Play 1719 (2:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate. PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at TEN 39 - No Play.
Q202:14 (2:14) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears right guard to TEN 49 for -1 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 1753 (2:14) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears right guard to TEN 49 for -1 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right. Play 1775 (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right.
Q201:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 49 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by TEN-2-T.Spears at BAL 49. 2-T.Spears pushed ob at BAL 47 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 1805 (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 49 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by TEN-2-T.Spears at BAL 49. 2-T.Spears pushed ob at BAL 47 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q201:46 (1:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-56-T.Jones. Play 1845 (1:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-56-T.Jones.
Q201:33 (1:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers (98-J.Simmons). Play 1865 (1:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers (98-J.Simmons).
Q201:29 (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right guard to BAL 41 for 29 yards (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on BAL-13-E.Sarratt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29. Play 1917 (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right guard to BAL 41 for 29 yards (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on BAL-13-E.Sarratt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29.
Q201:18 (1:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 43-J.Hill [57-J.Martin]. Play 1950 (1:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 43-J.Hill [57-J.Martin].
Q201:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-4-Z.Flowers, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play. Play 1973 (1:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-4-Z.Flowers, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play.
Q201:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 19 for 5 yards (53-A.Hill) [29-T.Adams]. Play 1997 (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 19 for 5 yards (53-A.Hill) [29-T.Adams].
Q201:05 Timeout #2 by TEN at 01:05. Play 2034 Timeout #2 by TEN at 01:05.
Q201:05 (1:05) 30-R.Eckley punts 51 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin. Play 2022 (1:05) 30-R.Eckley punts 51 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.
Q200:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right. Play 2049 (:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right.
Q200:46 (:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 14-C.Tate to BAL 37 for 33 yards (14-K.Hamilton). FUMBLES (14-K.Hamilton), RECOVERED by BAL-24-M.Starks at BAL 35. Play 2079 (:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 14-C.Tate to BAL 37 for 33 yards (14-K.Hamilton). FUMBLES (14-K.Hamilton), RECOVERED by BAL-24-M.Starks at BAL 35.
Q200:35 (:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 81-D.Walker. Play 2120 (:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 81-D.Walker.
Q200:29 (:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 46 for 11 yards (53-A.Hill). Play 2143 (:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 46 for 11 yards (53-A.Hill).
Q200:24 Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:24. Play 2180 Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:24.
Q200:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 13-E.Sarratt to TEN 41 for 13 yards (24-A.Taylor). Play 2168 (:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 13-E.Sarratt to TEN 41 for 13 yards (24-A.Taylor).
Q200:18 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:18. Play 2212 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:18.
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 13-E.Sarratt. Play 2200 (:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 13-E.Sarratt.
Q200:12 (:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at TEN 46 for -5 yards (11-J.Johnson). BAL-8-L.Jackson was injured during the play. Play 2230 (:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at TEN 46 for -5 yards (11-J.Johnson). BAL-8-L.Jackson was injured during the play.
Q200:05 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:05. Play 2262 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:05.
Q200:05 Timeout #3 by TEN at 00:05. Play 2269 Timeout #3 by TEN at 00:05.
Q200:05 (:05) 33-T.Loop 64 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 2250 (:05) 33-T.Loop 64 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2284 Q315:00 6-J.Slye kicks 59 yards from TEN 35 to BAL 6. 10-L.Wester to BAL 34 for 28 yards (33-C.Gray). Play 2302 6-J.Slye kicks 59 yards from TEN 35 to BAL 6. 10-L.Wester to BAL 34 for 28 yards (33-C.Gray).
Q314:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-89-M.Andrews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 34 - No Play. Play 2339 (14:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-89-M.Andrews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 34 - No Play.
Q314:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 34 for 5 yards (50-C.Barton; 24-A.Taylor). Play 2368 (14:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 34 for 5 yards (50-C.Barton; 24-A.Taylor).
Q314:12 (14:12) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 34 for no gain (95-J.Elliott; 98-J.Simmons). Play 2403 (14:12) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 34 for no gain (95-J.Elliott; 98-J.Simmons).
Q313:34 (13:34) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BAL 41 for 7 yards (37-A.Hooker). Play 2425 (13:34) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BAL 41 for 7 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Q312:48 (12:48) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Play 2455 (12:48) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
Q312:42 (12:42) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left end to TEN 13 for 4 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 2475 (12:42) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left end to TEN 13 for 4 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q312:14 (12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 14 for 1 yard (92-N.Madubuike). Play 2507 (12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 14 for 1 yard (92-N.Madubuike).
Q311:30 (11:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to TEN 26 for 12 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 2529 (11:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to TEN 26 for 12 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q310:47 (10:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate. Play 2559 (10:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate.
Q310:41 (10:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 82-D.Bellinger to TEN 35 for 9 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [0-R.Smith]. Penalty on TEN-32-N.Singleton, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play. Penalty on BAL-29-C.Rivers, Defensive Holding, offsetting. Play 2582 (10:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 82-D.Bellinger to TEN 35 for 9 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [0-R.Smith]. Penalty on TEN-32-N.Singleton, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play. Penalty on BAL-29-C.Rivers, Defensive Holding, offsetting.
Q310:16 (10:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor (3-C.Awuzie). PENALTY on BAL-3-C.Awuzie, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play. Play 2618 (10:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor (3-C.Awuzie). PENALTY on BAL-3-C.Awuzie, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play.
Q310:09 (10:09) 32-N.Singleton left tackle to BAL 33 for 2 yards (15-M.Green; 32-T.Simpson). Play 2652 (10:09) 32-N.Singleton left tackle to BAL 33 for 2 yards (15-M.Green; 32-T.Simpson).
Q309:27 (9:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 14-C.Tate to BAL 20 for 13 yards (3-C.Awuzie). Play 2674 (9:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 14-C.Tate to BAL 20 for 13 yards (3-C.Awuzie).
Q309:01 (9:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-N.Singleton left tackle to BAL 20 for no gain (95-T.Robinson; 15-M.Green). Play 2699 (9:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-N.Singleton left tackle to BAL 20 for no gain (95-T.Robinson; 15-M.Green).
Q308:16 (8:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles up the middle to BAL 19 for 1 yard (0-R.Smith). Play 2721 (8:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles up the middle to BAL 19 for 1 yard (0-R.Smith).
Q307:31 (7:31) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end ran ob at BAL 15 for 4 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 2743 (7:31) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end ran ob at BAL 15 for 4 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q306:55 (6:55) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. Play 2770 (6:55) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
Q306:52 6-J.Slye kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35. Play 2790 6-J.Slye kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35.
Q306:52 (6:52) 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 37 for 2 yards (37-A.Hooker). Play 2814 (6:52) 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 37 for 2 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Q306:17 (6:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 43-J.Hill to TEN 48 for 15 yards (23-K.Winston; 26-M.Harris). Play 2836 (6:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 43-J.Hill to TEN 48 for 15 yards (23-K.Winston; 26-M.Harris).
Q305:33 (5:33) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 48 for no gain (53-A.Hill; 7-O.Oladejo). BAL-80-D.Smythe was injured during the play. Play 2861 (5:33) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 48 for no gain (53-A.Hill; 7-O.Oladejo). BAL-80-D.Smythe was injured during the play.
Q305:08 (5:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to TEN 42 for 6 yards (50-C.Barton). Play 2883 (5:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to TEN 42 for 6 yards (50-C.Barton).
Q304:24 (4:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 48 for -6 yards (11-J.Johnson). Play 2923 (4:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to TEN 48 for -6 yards (11-J.Johnson).
Q303:44 (3:44) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 14 for 10 yards (85-J.Cuevas). Play 2948 (3:44) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 14 for 10 yards (85-J.Cuevas).
Q303:34 (3:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley (3-C.Awuzie). Play 2984 (3:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley (3-C.Awuzie).
Q303:31 (3:31) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 20-T.Pollard to TEN 14 for no gain (40-T.Buchanan). Play 3019 (3:31) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 20-T.Pollard to TEN 14 for no gain (40-T.Buchanan).
Q302:48 (2:48) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end to TEN 15 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at TEN 14, ball out of bounds at TEN 14. Play 3044 (2:48) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end to TEN 15 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at TEN 14, ball out of bounds at TEN 14.
Q302:10 (2:10) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester to BAL 43 for 11 yards (36-J.Chestnut; 38-T.Burgess). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43. Play 3075 (2:10) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester to BAL 43 for 11 yards (36-J.Chestnut; 38-T.Burgess). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43.
Q301:59 (1:59) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to TEN 43 for 9 yards (57-J.Martin). Play 3112 (1:59) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to TEN 43 for 9 yards (57-J.Martin).
Q301:18 (1:18) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 43 for no gain (91-J.Franklin-Myers). Play 3134 (1:18) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 43 for no gain (91-J.Franklin-Myers).
Q300:38 (:38) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 36 for 7 yards (37-A.Hooker; 33-C.Gray). PENALTY on BAL-81-D.Walker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play. Play 3156 (:38) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 36 for 7 yards (37-A.Hooker; 33-C.Gray). PENALTY on BAL-81-D.Walker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play.
Q300:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers. Play 3189 (:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers.
Q300:11 (:11) 30-R.Eckley punts 38 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds. Play 3224 (:11) 30-R.Eckley punts 38 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
Q300:04 (:04) 20-T.Pollard left guard to TEN 20 for 5 yards (95-T.Robinson). Play 3243 (:04) 20-T.Pollard left guard to TEN 20 for 5 yards (95-T.Robinson).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3265 Q415:00 (15:00) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger to TEN 22 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson; 3-C.Awuzie). Play 3285 (15:00) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger to TEN 22 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson; 3-C.Awuzie).
Q414:16 (14:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 4-W.Robinson. Play 3310 (14:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 4-W.Robinson.
Q414:09 (14:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 22 for no gain (41-E.Hallett). Play 3333 (14:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 22 for no gain (41-E.Hallett).
Q414:01 (14:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 88-M.Hibner to BAL 31 for 9 yards (18-C.Flott). Play 3364 (14:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 88-M.Hibner to BAL 31 for 9 yards (18-C.Flott).
Q413:24 (13:24) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 42 for 11 yards (53-A.Hill; 23-K.Winston). Play 3396 (13:24) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 42 for 11 yards (53-A.Hill; 23-K.Winston).
Q412:38 (12:38) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left guard to BAL 46 for 4 yards (53-A.Hill; 98-J.Simmons). PENALTY on BAL, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play. Play 3418 (12:38) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left guard to BAL 46 for 4 yards (53-A.Hill; 98-J.Simmons). PENALTY on BAL, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play.
Q412:17 (12:17) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 22-D.Henry to BAL 46 for 9 yards (53-A.Hill; 24-A.Taylor). Play 3452 (12:17) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 22-D.Henry to BAL 46 for 9 yards (53-A.Hill; 24-A.Taylor).
Q411:34 (11:34) 22-D.Henry right end to 50 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker). TEN-37-A.Hooker was injured during the play. Play 3477 (11:34) 22-D.Henry right end to 50 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker). TEN-37-A.Hooker was injured during the play.
Q411:12 (11:12) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 49 for -1 yards (24-A.Taylor, 11-J.Johnson). Play 3502 (11:12) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 49 for -1 yards (24-A.Taylor, 11-J.Johnson).
Q410:25 (10:25) (Punt formation) PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play. Play 3536 (10:25) (Punt formation) PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play.
Q410:25 (10:25) 30-R.Eckley punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback. Play 3564 (10:25) 30-R.Eckley punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
Q410:16 (10:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 20-T.Pollard pushed ob at TEN 22 for 2 yards (3-C.Awuzie). Play 3582 (10:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 20-T.Pollard pushed ob at TEN 22 for 2 yards (3-C.Awuzie).
Q409:57 (9:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 4-W.Robinson [92-N.Madubuike]. Play 3612 (9:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 4-W.Robinson [92-N.Madubuike].
Q409:50 (9:50) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 22 - No Play. Play 3635 (9:50) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 22 - No Play.
Q409:50 (9:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Tate. Play 3659 (9:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Tate.
Q409:46 (9:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at BAL 25. Play 3682 (9:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at BAL 25.
Q409:39 (9:39) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley Aborted. 71-O.Ioane FUMBLES at BAL 20, recovered by BAL-5-T.Huntley at BAL 22. 5-T.Huntley to BAL 22 for no gain (93-N.Stackhouse, 7-O.Oladejo). ** Injury Update: TEN-37-A.Hooker has returned to the game. PENALTY on TEN-7-O.Oladejo, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 25 - No Play. Play 3705 (9:39) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley Aborted. 71-O.Ioane FUMBLES at BAL 20, recovered by BAL-5-T.Huntley at BAL 22. 5-T.Huntley to BAL 22 for no gain (93-N.Stackhouse, 7-O.Oladejo). ** Injury Update: TEN-37-A.Hooker has returned to the game. PENALTY on TEN-7-O.Oladejo, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 25 - No Play.
Q409:35 (9:35) 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 33 for 3 yards (93-N.Stackhouse; 33-C.Gray). Play 3743 (9:35) 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 33 for 3 yards (93-N.Stackhouse; 33-C.Gray).
Q408:53 (8:53) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 39 for 6 yards (23-K.Winston). Play 3768 (8:53) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 39 for 6 yards (23-K.Winston).
Q408:12 (8:12) 5-T.Huntley right end to BAL 48 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston). Play 3790 (8:12) 5-T.Huntley right end to BAL 48 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston).
Q407:27 (7:27) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 49 for 3 yards (90-S.Thomas; 95-J.Elliott). BAL-4-Z.Flowers was injured during the play. Play 3812 (7:27) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 49 for 3 yards (90-S.Thomas; 95-J.Elliott). BAL-4-Z.Flowers was injured during the play.
Q406:39 (6:39) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 47 for 2 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers; 90-S.Thomas). Play 3834 (6:39) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 47 for 2 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers; 90-S.Thomas).
Q405:57 (5:57) 43-J.Hill right tackle to TEN 44 for 3 yards (95-J.Elliott; 26-M.Harris). Play 3859 (5:57) 43-J.Hill right tackle to TEN 44 for 3 yards (95-J.Elliott; 26-M.Harris).
Q405:10 (5:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman to TEN 26 for 18 yards (26-M.Harris). TEN-26-M.Harris was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: BAL-4-Z.Flowers has returned to the game. Play 3881 (5:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman to TEN 26 for 18 yards (26-M.Harris). TEN-26-M.Harris was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: BAL-4-Z.Flowers has returned to the game.
Q404:29 (4:29) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 26 for no gain (33-C.Gray). Play 3921 (4:29) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 26 for no gain (33-C.Gray).
Q403:44 (3:44) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 24 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons). Play 3953 (3:44) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 24 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons).
Q403:30 Timeout #1 by TEN at 03:30. Play 3987 Timeout #1 by TEN at 03:30.
Q403:30 (3:30) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 22 for 2 yards (23-K.Winston). Play 3975 (3:30) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 22 for 2 yards (23-K.Winston).
Q403:24 Timeout #2 by TEN at 03:24. Play 4016 Timeout #2 by TEN at 03:24.
Q403:24 (3:24) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 4004 (3:24) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q403:19 (3:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 14-C.Tate to TEN 43 for 13 yards (0-R.Smith; 3-C.Awuzie). Play 4032 (3:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 14-C.Tate to TEN 43 for 13 yards (0-R.Smith; 3-C.Awuzie).
Q402:55 (2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end ran ob at BAL 35 for 22 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 4057 (2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end ran ob at BAL 35 for 22 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q402:45 (2:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to BAL 31 for 4 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 4084 (2:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to BAL 31 for 4 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q402:16 (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at BAL 41 for -10 yards (97-E.Burke). Play 4109 (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at BAL 41 for -10 yards (97-E.Burke).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to BAL 36 for 5 yards (29-C.Rivers) [92-N.Madubuike]. Play 4129 (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to BAL 36 for 5 yards (29-C.Rivers) [92-N.Madubuike].
Q401:51 Timeout #3 by TEN at 01:51. Play 4173 Timeout #3 by TEN at 01:51.
Q401:51 Timeout #1 by BAL at 01:51. Play 4180 Timeout #1 by BAL at 01:51.
Q401:51 (1:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 3 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks) [15-M.Green]. Play 4161 (1:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 3 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks) [15-M.Green].
Q401:16 (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4200 (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:12 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Ward pass to 84-G.Helm is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 4226 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Ward pass to 84-G.Helm is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q401:12 Timeout #2 by BAL at 01:12. Play 4249 Timeout #2 by BAL at 01:12.
Q401:12 6-J.Slye kicks onside 9 yards from TEN 35 to TEN 44. 24-M.Starks (didn't try to advance) to TEN 44 for no gain. Play 4239 6-J.Slye kicks onside 9 yards from TEN 35 to TEN 44. 24-M.Starks (didn't try to advance) to TEN 44 for no gain.
Q401:10 (1:10) 5-T.Huntley kneels to TEN 45 for -1 yards. Play 4269 (1:10) 5-T.Huntley kneels to TEN 45 for -1 yards.
Q400:33 (:33) 5-T.Huntley kneels to TEN 46 for -1 yards. Play 4291 (:33) 5-T.Huntley kneels to TEN 46 for -1 yards.
3
Game seconds remaining 3230
Half seconds remaining 1430
Quarter seconds remaining 530
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence BAL -1.33 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3230
Half seconds remaining 1430
Quarter seconds remaining 530
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 9
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 3230
Half seconds remaining 1430
Quarter seconds remaining 530
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:16 Penalty · TEN (10:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor (3-C.Awuzie). PENALTY on BAL-3-C.Awuzie, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL -3.04 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1509
Half seconds remaining 1509
Quarter seconds remaining 609
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1509
Half seconds remaining 1509
Quarter seconds remaining 609
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence BAL -3.98 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1509
Half seconds remaining 1509
Quarter seconds remaining 609
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Game seconds remaining 1509
Half seconds remaining 1509
Quarter seconds remaining 609
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q202:20 Penalty · TEN (2:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate. PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at TEN 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL -2.36 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 1934
Half seconds remaining 134
Quarter seconds remaining 134
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 1934
Half seconds remaining 134
Quarter seconds remaining 134
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence BAL -1.09 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 1934
Half seconds remaining 134
Quarter seconds remaining 134
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 1934
Half seconds remaining 134
Quarter seconds remaining 134
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q207:40 Penalty · BAL (7:40) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-70-R.Rosengarten, False Start, 1 yard, enforced at BAL 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL -0.4 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 11
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2260
Half seconds remaining 460
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 98
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2260
Half seconds remaining 460
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence BAL -0.58 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 11
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 99
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2260
Half seconds remaining 460
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 98
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2260
Half seconds remaining 460
Quarter seconds remaining 460
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q414:09 Fourth down · TEN (14:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 22 for no gain (41-E.Hallett). + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0.39 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 0.5410088556139404
Yardline 100 78
Elapsed share 0.7641666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -11.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 849
Half seconds remaining 849
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 849
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.01537366095216941 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01537/ NA/0.01149 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:25 Penalty · BAL (10:25) (Punt formation) PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL -0.31 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 8
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 56
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 625
Half seconds remaining 625
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 625
Half seconds remaining 625
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence BAL -0.53 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 8
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 56
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 625
Half seconds remaining 625
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 625
Half seconds remaining 625
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:54 Penalty · BAL (14:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-89-M.Andrews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL -0.28 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 17
Game seconds remaining 1794
Half seconds remaining 1794
Quarter seconds remaining 894
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 17
Game seconds remaining 1794
Half seconds remaining 1794
Quarter seconds remaining 894
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence BAL -0.55 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 17
Game seconds remaining 1794
Half seconds remaining 1794
Quarter seconds remaining 894
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 17
Game seconds remaining 1794
Half seconds remaining 1794
Quarter seconds remaining 894
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q409:50 Penalty · TEN (9:50) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 22 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL 0.17 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 13
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 83
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 590
Half seconds remaining 590
Quarter seconds remaining 590
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 8
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 78
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 590
Half seconds remaining 590
Quarter seconds remaining 590
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence BAL 0.62 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 13
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 83
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 590
Half seconds remaining 590
Quarter seconds remaining 590
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 8
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 78
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 590
Half seconds remaining 590
Quarter seconds remaining 590
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q312:48 Fourth down · BAL (12:48) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0.14 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 1.344040490762445
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.5366666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 11.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 17
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1668
Half seconds remaining 1668
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 768
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9803694438396909 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98037/ NA/0.97897 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:46 Fourth down · TEN (1:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-56-T.Jones. + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0.11 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 1.750891020877035
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.4705555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -11.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1906
Half seconds remaining 106
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 106
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.0237228105290118 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02372/0.01928/0.02260 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:13 Fourth down · BAL (12:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 9.552390906055322
Yardline 100 5
Elapsed share 0.04638888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 11.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3433
Half seconds remaining 1633
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 733
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9040394218625724 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.90404/0.87038/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:17 Fourth down · TEN (:17) 3-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 4.311284658231409
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.2452777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -11.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2717
Half seconds remaining 917
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 17
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1544065636585573 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13380/ NA/0.15441 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 29 recorded events Q208:20 Fourth down · TEN (8:20) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-T.Pollard. 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike). + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 2.71258645433555
Yardline 100 2
Elapsed share 0.3611111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -11.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2300
Half seconds remaining 500
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 500
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1147362004556339 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11474/0.09136/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:05 Fourth down · BAL (1:05) 30-R.Eckley punts 51 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 1.67291774995852
Yardline 100 81
Elapsed share 0.4819444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 11.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q306:55 Kick · TEN (6:55) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 0.9079718949849042
Yardline 100 15
Elapsed share 0.6347222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -11.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q303:44 Fourth down · BAL (3:44) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 14 for 10 yards (85-J.Cuevas). + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 0.7343540015136897
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.6877777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 11.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q300:11 Fourth down · BAL (:11) 30-R.Eckley punts 38 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 0.5795920746774154
Yardline 100 53
Elapsed share 0.7469444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 11.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q410:25 Fourth down · BAL (10:25) 30-R.Eckley punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 0.4218065340494275
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.8263888888888888
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 11.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q409:46 Fumble · TEN (9:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at BAL 25. + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 0.4039186213877638
Yardline 100 83
Elapsed share 0.8372222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -11.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q403:24 Kick · BAL (3:24) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 0.2642165365127446
Yardline 100 22
Elapsed share 0.9433333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 11.5
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q401:51 Fourth down · TEN (1:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 3 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks) [15-M.Green]. + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team TEN
Home team BAL
Away total 15.5
Home total 27
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 11.5
Spread time 0.2382774253804451
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.9691666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -11.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q112:09 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q105:56 Kick · TEN 6-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. + Extra point points above expectation TEN 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:35 Penalty · BAL (2:35) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 30 for 20 yards (80-D.Smythe). PENALTY on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 15. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:16 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q212:16 Penalty · TEN 33-T.Loop kicks 66 yards from BAL 35 to TEN -1. 17-C.Dike to TEN 35 for 36 yards (29-C.Rivers). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 35. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:10 Penalty · TEN (12:10) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end pushed ob at TEN 27 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 27. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:48 Penalty · TEN (10:48) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:48 Penalty · TEN (10:48) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to BAL 13 for 7 yards (92-N.Madubuike; 32-T.Simpson). PENALTY on BAL-95-T.Robinson, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 13. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:32 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q201:52 Fumble · TEN (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 49 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by TEN-2-T.Spears at BAL 49. 2-T.Spears pushed ob at BAL 47 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton). + Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL 0.07 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation TEN -0.07 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q201:29 Penalty · BAL (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right guard to BAL 41 for 29 yards (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on BAL-13-E.Sarratt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 29. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:11 Penalty · BAL (1:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-4-Z.Flowers, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:46 Fumble · TEN (:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 14-C.Tate to BAL 37 for 33 yards (14-K.Hamilton). FUMBLES (14-K.Hamilton), RECOVERED by BAL-24-M.Starks at BAL 35. + Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL 0.07 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation TEN -0.07 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q200:05 Kick · BAL (:05) 33-T.Loop 64 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Field goal points above expectation BAL -0.97 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q310:41 Fourth down · TEN (10:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 82-D.Bellinger to TEN 35 for 9 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [0-R.Smith]. Penalty on TEN-32-N.Singleton, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play. Penalty on BAL-29-C.Rivers, Defensive Holding, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:48 Fumble · TEN (2:48) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end to TEN 15 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at TEN 14, ball out of bounds at TEN 14. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q302:10 Penalty · TEN (2:10) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester to BAL 43 for 11 yards (36-J.Chestnut; 38-T.Burgess). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q300:38 Penalty · BAL (:38) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 36 for 7 yards (37-A.Hooker; 33-C.Gray). PENALTY on BAL-81-D.Walker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:38 Penalty · BAL (12:38) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left guard to BAL 46 for 4 yards (53-A.Hill; 98-J.Simmons). PENALTY on BAL, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:39 Penalty · BAL (9:39) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley Aborted. 71-O.Ioane FUMBLES at BAL 20, recovered by BAL-5-T.Huntley at BAL 22. 5-T.Huntley to BAL 22 for no gain (93-N.Stackhouse, 7-O.Oladejo). ** Injury Update: TEN-37-A.Hooker has returned to the game. PENALTY on TEN-7-O.Oladejo, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
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Verify this snapshot SHA-256 6cfdae5ca0503770eeea630f28d69a6671a8afc68b1ebb77a022b25e788ded3fModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: b5065c7f782a4c5b58bdc118373e344a310367c1ce823ff918ae42031be2376a
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 4, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
14
Game seconds remaining 1865
Quarter seconds remaining 65
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9717363471644362 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97078/ NA/0.97174 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-17
Game seconds remaining 1315
Half seconds remaining 1315
Quarter seconds remaining 415
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.01952342291949924 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01918/0.01952/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TEN 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
14
Game seconds remaining 1124
Half seconds remaining 1124
Quarter seconds remaining 224
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9796758628941107 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97686/0.97231/0.97968 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
14
Game seconds remaining 911
Half seconds remaining 911
Quarter seconds remaining 11
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.981654508195893 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97832/ NA/0.98165 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
14
Game seconds remaining 625
Half seconds remaining 625
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9867110187607153 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98425/ NA/0.98671 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-14
Game seconds remaining 586
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.008550079410410184 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00791/ NA/0.00855 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
14
Game seconds remaining 204
Half seconds remaining 204
Quarter seconds remaining 204
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9982394913931589 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99670/0.99824/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BAL -0.97 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-14
Game seconds remaining 111
Half seconds remaining 111
Quarter seconds remaining 111
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.0006756234270999387 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00068/0.00000/0.00001 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled