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Hmm 3 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Penalty patterns were this unusual in 8 of 779 comparison games. How this rating was calculated Hmm (3/5): The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: LA by 10.6; actual result: BUF by 3.
The 13.6-point difference was matched or exceeded in 90 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 33.41%
Penalty pattern Hmm · 3/5 Combined penalty count: 24 versus 11.5 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 8 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 3.46%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: LA by 3.5; actual result: BUF by 3. The difference was 6.5 points.
4,411 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Los Angeles Rams by 3.5
Final margin Buffalo Bills by 3
Difference 6.5 points
Buffalo Bills covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
4,411 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (60.6%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score LA by 10.6
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates · amber = experimental overtime · circle = recorded result
Los Angeles Rams chance to win during the game 151 preplay estimates across 199 recorded game entries; 8 use an experimental overtime model. 47 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The shaded region marks overtime. A separate circle identifies the recorded final outcome, not a forecast. All recorded entries appear in the table below. OVERTIME Experimental estimates 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
LA Observed ruling consequence -0.82 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence -0.5 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
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Notable plays 5 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 02:26 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 1666 (2:26) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua ran ob at BUF 29 for 15 yards. Buffalo challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.9 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 03:49 Recorded game event
Buffalo Bills · Play 2984 (3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at LA 4.
Defensive penalty on LA awarded BUF a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 10.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:42 Recorded game event
Buffalo Bills · Play 4019 (2:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.6 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 199 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 199 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 42-E.Evans kicks 61 yards from LA 35 to BUF 4. 7-R.Davis pushed ob at LA 26 for 70 yards (42-E.Evans). Play 40 42-E.Evans kicks 61 yards from LA 35 to BUF 4. 7-R.Davis pushed ob at LA 26 for 70 yards (42-E.Evans).
Q114:50 (14:50) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 23 for 3 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 68 (14:50) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 23 for 3 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q114:13 (14:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 88-D.Knox. Play 90 (14:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 88-D.Knox.
Q114:08 (14:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at LA 31 for -8 yards (10-J.Stewart). Play 113 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 43 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q310:18 Penalty · LA (10:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 89-T.Higbee [55-M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at BUF 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA 11.73 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1514
Half seconds remaining 1514
Quarter seconds remaining 614
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. overtime_model_experimental: Overtime estimates are partial, empirical and uncalibrated; unavailable states remain gaps. Terminal values are observed results, not predictions. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 12, 2026, 7:29 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 d8baa6db70b6f197a6ec567a5c1ed59687e748f70a823cfc58f63d06a47f9f78nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC
BUF by 3
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
90 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 8 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Scott Novak Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.9 accepted penalties for 94.9 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.1 / 49.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.8 / 45.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Scott Novak; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Los Angeles Rams · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Los Angeles Rams · Opponent penalties Opponent BUF was charged 13 penalties for 112 yards.
Buffalo Bills · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Buffalo Bills · Opponent penalties Opponent LA was charged 11 penalties for 84 yards.
Explore the historical comparisons (3) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
Buffalo Bills Historical context
Winning-profile context BUF won. Prior matching team-games: 58 wins, 257 losses, 2 ties among 317 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards Negative turnover margin 58 / 317 prior matching team-games were wins
257 losses · 2 ties among the matches
Buffalo Bills Historical context
Winning-profile context BUF won. Prior matching team-games: 336 wins, 435 losses, 3 ties among 774 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards 336 / 774 prior matching team-games were wins
435 losses · 3 ties among the matches
Buffalo Bills Historical context
Winning-profile context BUF won. Prior matching team-games: 1226 wins, 4513 losses, 13 ties among 5752 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
1,226 / 5,752 prior matching team-games were wins
4,513 losses · 13 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
Recorded final result: Buffalo Bills won. This point is an observation, not a forecast. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 151 model estimates across 199 recorded game entries, plus 1 recorded final result.
47 entries have no estimate : 14 overtime entries and 33 other recorded states.
The overtime model requires at least 20 comparable prior games with matching possession rules. Sparse or ambiguous states stay unrated. It estimates wins, losses and ties separately; see coverage and limits .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The final circle shows the recorded outcome. A tied game has 0% win and 100% tie at that point.
View all chart data (199 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence 3.89 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence 1.32 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence 1.42 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence 0.64 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence -2.93 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence -0.68 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence -2.75 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence -1.94 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence 11.73 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence 2.62 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence -7.56 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence -2.34 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence 3.29 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence 0.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence 5.17 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence 1.01 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence 4.6 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence 0.69 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35561/0.36364/0.34953 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59554/0.55233/0.54278 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 2.54 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57439/0.54902/0.51616 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0.4 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55909/0.55512/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 1.51 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36611/0.36657/0.35143 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35966/0.33479/0.30520 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32323/ NA/0.36429 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 2.3 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56303/ NA/0.54001 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
LA Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.24 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
BUF Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.24 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
LA Field goal points above expectation -2.39 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 87th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
BUF Field goal points above expectation 1 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 39th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LA Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 37th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
BUF Extra point points above expectation -0.86 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 91st percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
LA Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 199 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
BUF Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 199 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
BUF Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.82 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.86 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.68 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
59 of 59 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 59 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Pass interference called penalties above expectation 1.28 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
59 of 59 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 59 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.34 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
87 of 87 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 87 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.66 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
87 of 87 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 87 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.75 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
24 of 24 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 24 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.74 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
24 of 24 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 24 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q2 · 14:27 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 934 (14:27) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-55-M.Hoecht, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on BUF awarded LA a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.9 percentage points across this play.
Show 1 more play Q5 · 09:12 Recorded game event
Buffalo Bills · Play 4538 (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson to BUF 40 for 10 yards (91-K.Turner; 53-N.Landman). PENALTY on BUF-13-S.Bell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 31.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. (14:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at LA 31 for -8 yards (10-J.Stewart).
Q113:28 (13:28) 16-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 133 (13:28) 16-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q113:23 16-T.Bass kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to LA 7. 11-A.Bachman to LA 30 for 23 yards (56-J.Solomon). Play 153 16-T.Bass kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to LA 7. 11-A.Bachman to LA 30 for 23 yards (56-J.Solomon).
Q113:18 (13:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson pushed ob at LA 33 for 3 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 183 (13:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson pushed ob at LA 33 for 3 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q112:41 (12:41) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to LA 37 for 4 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 213 (12:41) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to LA 37 for 4 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q112:02 (12:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to LA 41 for 4 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 238 (12:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to LA 41 for 4 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q111:25 (11:25) PENALTY on LA-69-K.Dotson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 41 - No Play. Play 263 (11:25) PENALTY on LA-69-K.Dotson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 41 - No Play.
Q111:11 (11:11) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 43 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 287 (11:11) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 43 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q110:31 (10:31) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua ran ob at BUF 48 for 9 yards. Play 309 (10:31) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua ran ob at BUF 48 for 9 yards.
Q109:54 (9:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at BUF 48 for no gain (47-C.Benford; 99-T.Parker). Play 339 (9:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at BUF 48 for no gain (47-C.Benford; 99-T.Parker).
Q109:20 (9:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 39 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 364 (9:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 39 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q108:40 (8:40) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 39 for no gain (8-T.Bernard; 98-T.Sanders). Play 389 (8:40) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 39 for no gain (8-T.Bernard; 98-T.Sanders).
Q108:00 (8:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to BUF 37 for 2 yards (24-C.Bishop; 21-D.Igbinosun). Play 411 (8:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to BUF 37 for 2 yards (24-C.Bishop; 21-D.Igbinosun).
Q107:27 (7:27) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 30 for 7 yards (42-D.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 433 (7:27) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 30 for 7 yards (42-D.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q106:51 (6:51) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 21 for 9 yards (99-T.Parker). PENALTY on LA-89-T.Higbee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 25. Play 458 (6:51) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 21 for 9 yards (99-T.Parker). PENALTY on LA-89-T.Higbee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 25.
Q106:25 (6:25) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to BUF 32 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 55-M.Hoecht). Play 491 (6:25) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to BUF 32 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 55-M.Hoecht).
Q105:44 (5:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua. Play 513 (5:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua.
Q105:40 (5:40) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 536 (5:40) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q105:35 (5:35) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook ran ob at BUF 47 for 7 yards (94-D.Johnson; 22-T.McDuffie). Play 562 (5:35) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook ran ob at BUF 47 for 7 yards (94-D.Johnson; 22-T.McDuffie).
Q105:03 (5:03) 4-J.Cook right guard to LA 47 for 6 yards (0-B.Young; 37-Q.Lake). Play 599 (5:03) 4-J.Cook right guard to LA 47 for 6 yards (0-B.Young; 37-Q.Lake).
Q104:24 (4:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end ran ob at LA 39 for 8 yards (35-J.Watson). Play 621 (4:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end ran ob at LA 39 for 8 yards (35-J.Watson).
Q103:50 (3:50) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LA 36 for 3 yards (91-K.Turner; 53-N.Landman). Play 648 (3:50) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LA 36 for 3 yards (91-K.Turner; 53-N.Landman).
Q103:10 (3:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at LA 46 for -10 yards (99-A.Donald). PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LA 36 - No Play. Play 670 (3:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at LA 46 for -10 yards (99-A.Donald). PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LA 36 - No Play.
Q103:00 (3:00) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LA 27 for 4 yards (53-N.Landman; 48-O.Speights). Play 701 (3:00) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LA 27 for 4 yards (53-N.Landman; 48-O.Speights).
Q102:25 (2:25) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 12 for 15 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 723 (2:25) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 12 for 15 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q101:45 (1:45) 4-J.Cook left guard to LA 11 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald). Play 745 (1:45) 4-J.Cook left guard to LA 11 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald).
Q101:05 (1:05) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to LA 5 for 6 yards (99-A.Donald; 3-K.Curl). Play 767 (1:05) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to LA 5 for 6 yards (99-A.Donald; 3-K.Curl).
Q100:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Knox. Play 789 (:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Knox.
Q100:13 (:13) 16-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 812 (:13) 16-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q100:10 16-T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to LA 5. 88-J.Whittington to LA 29 for 24 yards (99-T.Parker). Play 832 16-T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to LA 5. 88-J.Whittington to LA 29 for 24 yards (99-T.Parker).
Q100:05 (:05) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 35 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 862 (:05) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 35 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 892 Q215:00 (15:00) 12-P.Nacua left end to LA 35 for no gain (42-D.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 912 (15:00) 12-P.Nacua left end to LA 35 for no gain (42-D.Williams; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q214:27 (14:27) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-55-M.Hoecht, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35 - No Play. Play 934 (14:27) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-55-M.Hoecht, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35 - No Play.
Q214:13 (14:13) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 24-B.Corum pushed ob at 50 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop). The first down was assisted by replay. Play 958 (14:13) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 24-B.Corum pushed ob at 50 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop). The first down was assisted by replay.
Q213:42 (13:42) 24-B.Corum up the middle to BUF 47 for 3 yards (96-D.Walker). Play 988 (13:42) 24-B.Corum up the middle to BUF 47 for 3 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q213:00 (13:00) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to BUF 37 for 10 yards (47-C.Benford; 24-C.Bishop). Play 1010 (13:00) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to BUF 37 for 10 yards (47-C.Benford; 24-C.Bishop).
Q212:23 (12:23) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 24-B.Corum pushed ob at BUF 28 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1034 (12:23) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 24-B.Corum pushed ob at BUF 28 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q211:45 (11:45) 23-K.Williams left tackle to BUF 27 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 1064 (11:45) 23-K.Williams left tackle to BUF 27 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q211:02 Timeout #1 by LA at 11:02. Play 1098 Timeout #1 by LA at 11:02.
Q211:02 (11:02) 23-K.Williams right tackle to BUF 24 for 3 yards (97-G.Gaines; 42-D.Williams). Play 1086 (11:02) 23-K.Williams right tackle to BUF 24 for 3 yards (97-G.Gaines; 42-D.Williams).
Q210:23 (10:23) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua. Play 1115 (10:23) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua.
Q210:19 (10:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 16 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1138 (10:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 16 for 8 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q209:39 (9:39) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams. Play 1163 (9:39) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
Q209:35 (9:35) 12-P.Nacua left end to BUF 7 for 9 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 42-D.Williams). Play 1186 (9:35) 12-P.Nacua left end to BUF 7 for 9 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 42-D.Williams).
Q208:50 (8:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen to BUF 4 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 1215 (8:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen to BUF 4 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q208:04 (8:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1240 (8:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q208:00 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 1266 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q208:00 92-H.Mevis kicks 63 yards from LA 35 to BUF 2. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 29 yards (37-Q.Lake; 94-D.Johnson). Play 1281 92-H.Mevis kicks 63 yards from LA 35 to BUF 2. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 29 yards (37-Q.Lake; 94-D.Johnson).
Q207:54 (7:54) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 35 for 4 yards (53-N.Landman; 3-K.Curl). Play 1311 (7:54) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 35 for 4 yards (53-N.Landman; 3-K.Curl).
Q207:17 (7:17) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end ran ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 1333 (7:17) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end ran ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q206:36 (6:36) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 42 - No Play. Play 1360 (6:36) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 42 - No Play.
Q206:22 (6:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 43 for 6 yards (53-N.Landman). BUF-79-S.Brown was injured during the play. Play 1384 (6:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 43 for 6 yards (53-N.Landman). BUF-79-S.Brown was injured during the play.
Q205:56 (5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson pushed ob at LA 17 for 40 yards (0-B.Young). Play 1416 (5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson pushed ob at LA 17 for 40 yards (0-B.Young).
Q205:16 (5:16) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1453 (5:16) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q205:09 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 1476 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q205:09 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LA 3. 88-J.Whittington to LA 36 for 33 yards (29-J.Kilgore). Play 1491 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LA 3. 88-J.Whittington to LA 36 for 33 yards (29-J.Kilgore).
Q205:04 (5:04) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 39 for 3 yards (98-T.Sanders). Play 1526 (5:04) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 39 for 3 yards (98-T.Sanders).
Q204:24 (4:24) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 43 for 4 yards (98-T.Sanders; 42-D.Williams). Play 1548 (4:24) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 43 for 4 yards (98-T.Sanders; 42-D.Williams).
Q203:43 (3:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 8-T.Atwell pushed ob at LA 47 for 4 yards (1-M.Hairston). Play 1570 (3:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 8-T.Atwell pushed ob at LA 47 for 4 yards (1-M.Hairston).
Q203:15 (3:15) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 41 for -6 yards (90-D.Carter). Play 1600 (3:15) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 41 for -6 yards (90-D.Carter).
Q202:31 (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 41 - No Play. Play 1620 (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 41 - No Play.
Q202:26 (2:26) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua ran ob at BUF 29 for 15 yards. Buffalo challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua. Play 1666 (2:26) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua ran ob at BUF 29 for 15 yards. Buffalo challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua.
Q202:20 (2:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua (52-K.Elarms-Orr) [8-T.Bernard]. Play 1765 (2:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua (52-K.Elarms-Orr) [8-T.Bernard].
Q202:15 (2:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 44 - No Play. Play 1795 (2:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 44 - No Play.
Q202:15 (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to BUF 43 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 3-D.Hamlin). Play 1819 (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to BUF 43 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 3-D.Hamlin).
Q202:00 (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-G.Dortch. Play 1848 (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-G.Dortch.
Q201:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 14 for 2 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 1875 (1:52) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 14 for 2 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q201:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 21 for 7 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 1897 (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 21 for 7 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q200:37 Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:37. Play 1936 Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:37.
Q200:37 (:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 21 - No Play. Play 1922 (:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 21 - No Play.
Q200:37 (:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 0-K.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Watson at LA 40. 35-J.Watson to LA 43 for 3 yards (88-D.Knox). Play 1955 (:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 0-K.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Watson at LA 40. 35-J.Watson to LA 43 for 3 yards (88-D.Knox).
Q200:20 (:20) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play. Play 1982 (:20) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play.
Q200:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. Play 2006 (:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee.
Q200:15 (:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to BUF 49 for 13 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 2029 (:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to BUF 49 for 13 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q200:08 Timeout #2 by LA at 00:08. Play 2066 Timeout #2 by LA at 00:08.
Q200:08 (:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 12-P.Nacua. Play 2054 (:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 12-P.Nacua.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2084 Q315:00 16-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to LA 8. 11-A.Bachman to LA 40 for 32 yards (30-A.Kendall; 18-T.Sherfield). Play 2104 16-T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to LA 8. 11-A.Bachman to LA 40 for 32 yards (30-A.Kendall; 18-T.Sherfield).
Q314:52 (14:52) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 42 for 2 yards (9-B.Chubb; 98-T.Sanders). Play 2127 (14:52) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 42 for 2 yards (9-B.Chubb; 98-T.Sanders).
Q314:20 (14:20) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 44 for 14 yards (47-C.Benford; 8-T.Bernard). Play 2149 (14:20) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 44 for 14 yards (47-C.Benford; 8-T.Bernard).
Q313:33 (13:33) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson. Play 2174 (13:33) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson.
Q313:27 (13:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 39 for 5 yards (42-D.Williams; 30-A.Kendall). Play 2197 (13:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 39 for 5 yards (42-D.Williams; 30-A.Kendall).
Q312:45 (12:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at BUF 35 for 4 yards (3-D.Hamlin). Play 2222 (12:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at BUF 35 for 4 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Q312:08 (12:08) (Run formation) PENALTY on LA-89-T.Higbee, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 35 - No Play. Play 2252 (12:08) (Run formation) PENALTY on LA-89-T.Higbee, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 35 - No Play.
Q311:50 (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 30 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 2276 (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 30 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q311:08 (11:08) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 18 for 12 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 2301 (11:08) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 18 for 12 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q310:22 (10:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 24-B.Corum. Play 2326 (10:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 24-B.Corum.
Q310:18 (10:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 89-T.Higbee [55-M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at BUF 18 - No Play. Play 2349 (10:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 89-T.Higbee [55-M.Hoecht]. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at BUF 18 - No Play.
Q310:14 (10:14) 24-B.Corum right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2383 (10:14) 24-B.Corum right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q310:11 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 2406 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q310:11 92-H.Mevis kicks 62 yards from LA 35 to BUF 3. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 32 for 29 yards (36-M.Pulley). Play 2421 92-H.Mevis kicks 62 yards from LA 35 to BUF 3. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 32 for 29 yards (36-M.Pulley).
Q310:05 (10:05) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 37 for 5 yards (10-J.Stewart; 3-K.Curl). PENALTY on LA-55-B.Fiske, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 37. Play 2451 (10:05) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 37 for 5 yards (10-J.Stewart; 3-K.Curl). PENALTY on LA-55-B.Fiske, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 37.
Q309:54 (9:54) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to LA 31 for 17 yards (37-Q.Lake; 3-K.Curl). PENALTY on BUF-68-T.Grable, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 48 - No Play. Play 2484 (9:54) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to LA 31 for 17 yards (37-Q.Lake; 3-K.Curl). PENALTY on BUF-68-T.Grable, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 48 - No Play.
Q309:20 (9:20) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 41 for -1 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 2520 (9:20) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 41 for -1 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q308:35 (8:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid. Play 2542 (8:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid.
Q308:31 (8:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 13-S.Bell (35-J.Watson). Play 2565 (8:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 13-S.Bell (35-J.Watson).
Q308:24 (8:24) 39-T.Doman punts 52 yards to LA 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-A.Bachman. Play 2588 (8:24) 39-T.Doman punts 52 yards to LA 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-A.Bachman.
Q308:17 (8:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 10 for 3 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 2608 (8:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 10 for 3 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q307:40 (7:40) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 13 for 3 yards (98-T.Sanders). Play 2640 (7:40) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 13 for 3 yards (98-T.Sanders).
Q307:01 (7:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. Play 2662 (7:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.
Q306:56 (6:56) 42-E.Evans punts 62 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 39 for 14 yards (33-D.Connors; 89-T.Higbee). Play 2685 (6:56) 42-E.Evans punts 62 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 39 for 14 yards (33-D.Connors; 89-T.Higbee).
Q306:44 (6:44) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for 11 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 2721 (6:44) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for 11 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q306:12 (6:12) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for no gain (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at 50. Play 2750 (6:12) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for no gain (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at 50.
Q305:51 (5:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to LA 45 for 5 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 2788 (5:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to LA 45 for 5 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q305:11 (5:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson ran ob at LA 19 for 26 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 2813 (5:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson ran ob at LA 19 for 26 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q304:34 (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to LA 12 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play. Play 2843 (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to LA 12 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play.
Q304:08 (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at LA 29 - No Play. Play 2879 (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at LA 29 - No Play.
Q304:02 (4:02) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right. Play 2902 (4:02) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right.
Q303:56 (3:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 13-S.Bell. Play 2937 (3:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 13-S.Bell.
Q303:49 (3:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-68-T.Grable, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 8 - No Play. Play 2960 (3:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-68-T.Grable, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 8 - No Play.
Q303:49 (3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at LA 4. Play 2984 (3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at LA 4.
Q303:32 (3:32) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 7 for -5 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 3017 (3:32) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 7 for -5 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q302:49 (2:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-35-J.Watson was injured during the play. Play 3039 (2:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-35-J.Watson was injured during the play.
Q302:45 (Pass formation) PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 2 - No Play. Play 3068 (Pass formation) PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 2 - No Play.
Q302:45 16-T.Bass extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 3099 16-T.Bass extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q302:45 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LA 4. 88-J.Whittington to LA 27 for 23 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on LA-44-G.Stuard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 27. Play 3114 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LA 4. 88-J.Whittington to LA 27 for 23 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on LA-44-G.Stuard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 27.
Q302:40 (2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 23 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 3155 (2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 23 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q301:57 (1:57) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 49 for 28 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 3180 (1:57) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 49 for 28 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q301:14 (1:14) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 24-B.Corum to BUF 15 for 34 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson was injured during the play. Play 3205 (1:14) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 24-B.Corum to BUF 15 for 34 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson was injured during the play.
Q300:40 (:40) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 4 for 11 yards (24-C.Bishop; 42-D.Williams). Play 3233 (:40) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 4 for 11 yards (24-C.Bishop; 42-D.Williams).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3265 Q415:00 (15:00) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 2 for 2 yards (24-C.Bishop; 96-D.Walker). Play 3285 (15:00) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 2 for 2 yards (24-C.Bishop; 96-D.Walker).
Q414:20 (14:20) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3307 (14:20) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q414:16 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-M.Stafford is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 3333 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-M.Stafford is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q414:16 92-H.Mevis kicks 58 yards from LA 35 to BUF 7. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 32 for 25 yards (48-O.Speights). PENALTY on BUF-83-K.Latu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 30. Play 3346 92-H.Mevis kicks 58 yards from LA 35 to BUF 7. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 32 for 25 yards (48-O.Speights). PENALTY on BUF-83-K.Latu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 30.
Q414:11 (14:11) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 27 for 7 yards (3-K.Curl). ** Injury Update: LA-35-J.Watson has returned to the game. Play 3385 (14:11) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 27 for 7 yards (3-K.Curl). ** Injury Update: LA-35-J.Watson has returned to the game.
Q413:32 (13:32) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 45 for 18 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 3407 (13:32) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 45 for 18 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q412:50 (12:50) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LA 33 for 22 yards (22-T.McDuffie). Play 3432 (12:50) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LA 33 for 22 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q412:14 (12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 7-R.Davis to LA 2 for 31 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 3454 (12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 7-R.Davis to LA 2 for 31 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q411:41 (11:41) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to LA 1 for 1 yard (0-B.Young). PENALTY on LA-10-J.Stewart, Defensive Offside, 1 yard, enforced at LA 2 - No Play. Play 3479 (11:41) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to LA 1 for 1 yard (0-B.Young). PENALTY on LA-10-J.Stewart, Defensive Offside, 1 yard, enforced at LA 2 - No Play.
Q411:33 (11:33) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3512 (11:33) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q411:28 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 86-D.Kincaid is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 3535 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 86-D.Kincaid is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q411:28 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LA 4. 88-J.Whittington to LA 29 for 25 yards (55-M.Hoecht). Play 3548 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LA 4. 88-J.Whittington to LA 29 for 25 yards (55-M.Hoecht).
Q411:23 (11:23) 23-K.Williams left end to LA 41 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop). ** Injury Update: BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson has returned to the game. Play 3578 (11:23) 23-K.Williams left end to LA 41 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop). ** Injury Update: BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson has returned to the game.
Q410:46 (10:46) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 23-K.Williams. BUF-8-T.Bernard was injured during the play. Play 3600 (10:46) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 23-K.Williams. BUF-8-T.Bernard was injured during the play.
Q410:41 (10:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to LA 48 for 7 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr). Play 3629 (10:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to LA 48 for 7 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr).
Q410:03 (10:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 48 for 4 yards (47-C.Benford). BUF-47-C.Benford was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: BUF-8-T.Bernard has returned to the game. Play 3654 (10:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 48 for 4 yards (47-C.Benford). BUF-47-C.Benford was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: BUF-8-T.Bernard has returned to the game.
Q409:38 (9:38) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 18 for 30 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 3682 (9:38) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 18 for 30 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q408:51 (8:51) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams (21-D.Igbinosun). PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 18 - No Play. Play 3710 (8:51) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams (21-D.Igbinosun). PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 18 - No Play.
Q408:47 (8:47) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 4 for 4 yards (9-B.Chubb). Play 3744 (8:47) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 4 for 4 yards (9-B.Chubb).
Q408:02 (8:02) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 5 for -1 yards (96-D.Walker). Play 3766 (8:02) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 5 for -1 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q407:18 (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3788 (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q407:14 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 3814 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q407:14 92-H.Mevis kicks 60 yards from LA 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 29 for 24 yards (88-J.Whittington; 47-W.Bailey). Play 3829 92-H.Mevis kicks 60 yards from LA 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 29 for 24 yards (88-J.Whittington; 47-W.Bailey).
Q407:07 (7:07) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 35 for 6 yards (97-P.Ford; 91-K.Turner). Play 3859 (7:07) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 35 for 6 yards (97-P.Ford; 91-K.Turner).
Q406:33 (6:33) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 34 for -1 yards (0-B.Young). Play 3881 (6:33) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 34 for -1 yards (0-B.Young).
Q405:54 (5:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard to BUF 49 for 15 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 3903 (5:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard to BUF 49 for 15 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q405:06 (5:06) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LA 46 for 5 yards (97-P.Ford). Play 3925 (5:06) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LA 46 for 5 yards (97-P.Ford).
Q404:29 (4:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox to LA 40 for 6 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 3947 (4:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox to LA 40 for 6 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q403:48 (3:48) 7-R.Davis left tackle to LA 36 for 4 yards (10-J.Stewart; 53-N.Landman). Play 3972 (3:48) 7-R.Davis left tackle to LA 36 for 4 yards (10-J.Stewart; 53-N.Landman).
Q403:17 (3:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to LA 19 for 17 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 3994 (3:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to LA 19 for 17 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q402:42 (2:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play. Play 4019 (2:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play.
Q402:42 (2:42) (Shotgun) 7-R.Davis left end to LA 26 for -2 yards (22-T.McDuffie). Play 4043 (2:42) (Shotgun) 7-R.Davis left end to LA 26 for -2 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard to LA 5 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace; 3-K.Curl). Play 4065 (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard to LA 5 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace; 3-K.Curl).
Q401:48 Timeout #1 by LA at 01:48. Play 4106 Timeout #1 by LA at 01:48.
Q401:48 (1:48) 4-J.Cook right end to LA 5 for no gain (53-N.Landman). Play 4094 (1:48) 4-J.Cook right end to LA 5 for no gain (53-N.Landman).
Q401:44 Timeout #2 by LA at 01:44. Play 4135 Timeout #2 by LA at 01:44.
Q401:44 (1:44) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4123 (1:44) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:39 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 4153 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q401:39 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LA 3. 88-J.Whittington pushed ob at LA 37 for 34 yards (18-T.Sherfield). Play 4168 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LA 3. 88-J.Whittington pushed ob at LA 37 for 34 yards (18-T.Sherfield).
Q401:32 (1:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to BUF 49 for 14 yards (24-C.Bishop). ** Injury Update: BUF-47-C.Benford has returned to the game. Play 4196 (1:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to BUF 49 for 14 yards (24-C.Bishop). ** Injury Update: BUF-47-C.Benford has returned to the game.
Q401:15 (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at BUF 44 for 5 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 4221 (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at BUF 44 for 5 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q401:09 (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 28 for 16 yards (3-D.Hamlin). Play 4254 (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 28 for 16 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Q400:47 (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at BUF 13 for 15 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 4279 (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at BUF 13 for 15 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q400:42 (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at BUF 10 for 3 yards (30-A.Kendall). Play 4309 (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at BUF 10 for 3 yards (30-A.Kendall).
Q400:35 (:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua. Play 4344 (:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua.
Q400:31 (:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to BUF 1 for 9 yards (3-D.Hamlin). Play 4367 (:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to BUF 1 for 9 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Q400:08 (:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4392 (:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q400:05 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 4415 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q400:05 92-H.Mevis kicks 64 yards from LA 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 25 for 24 yards (56-S.Dolac; 94-D.Johnson). Play 4435 92-H.Mevis kicks 64 yards from LA 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 25 for 24 yards (56-S.Dolac; 94-D.Johnson).
Q400:00 END QUARTER 4 Play 4463 Q510:00 92-H.Mevis kicks 58 yards from LA 35 to BUF 7. 7-R.Davis to BUF 27 for 20 yards (56-S.Dolac). Play 4493 92-H.Mevis kicks 58 yards from LA 35 to BUF 7. 7-R.Davis to BUF 27 for 20 yards (56-S.Dolac).
Q509:53 (9:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 30 for 3 yards (55-B.Fiske). Play 4516 (9:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 30 for 3 yards (55-B.Fiske).
Q509:12 (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson to BUF 40 for 10 yards (91-K.Turner; 53-N.Landman). PENALTY on BUF-13-S.Bell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 31. Play 4538 (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson to BUF 40 for 10 yards (91-K.Turner; 53-N.Landman). PENALTY on BUF-13-S.Bell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 31.
Q508:48 (8:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to LA 22 for 57 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 4579 (8:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to LA 22 for 57 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q508:00 (8:00) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 22 for no gain (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 20. Play 4604 (8:00) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 22 for no gain (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 20.
Q507:54 (7:54) 23-K.Williams left end to LA 23 for 3 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 96-D.Walker). Play 4642 (7:54) 23-K.Williams left end to LA 23 for 3 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 96-D.Walker).
Q507:15 (7:15) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 87-D.Allen to LA 44 for 21 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [96-D.Walker]. Play 4664 (7:15) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 87-D.Allen to LA 44 for 21 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [96-D.Walker].
Q506:37 Timeout #1 by BUF at 06:37. Play 4701 Timeout #1 by BUF at 06:37.
Q506:37 (6:37) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (21-D.Igbinosun) [15-G.Rousseau]. The penalty was assisted by replay. Play 4689 (6:37) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (21-D.Igbinosun) [15-G.Rousseau]. The penalty was assisted by replay.
Q506:30 (6:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 35 for 21 yards (24-C.Bishop; 8-T.Bernard). Play 4730 (6:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 35 for 21 yards (24-C.Bishop; 8-T.Bernard).
Q505:41 Timeout #1 by LA at 05:41. Play 4769 Timeout #1 by LA at 05:41.
Q505:41 (5:41) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 23-K.Williams. Play 4757 (5:41) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 23-K.Williams.
Q505:37 (5:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 30 for 5 yards (42-D.Williams). Play 4787 (5:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 30 for 5 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q504:51 Timeout #2 by LA at 04:51. Play 4824 Timeout #2 by LA at 04:51.
Q504:51 Timeout #2 by BUF at 04:51. Play 4831 Timeout #2 by BUF at 04:51.
Q504:51 (4:51) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right tackle to BUF 30 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau; 21-D.Igbinosun). Play 4812 (4:51) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right tackle to BUF 30 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau; 21-D.Igbinosun).
Q504:16 (4:16) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (15-G.Rousseau), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 4848 (4:16) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (15-G.Rousseau), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q504:11 (4:11) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 41 for 3 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 4869 (4:11) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 41 for 3 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q503:35 (3:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LA 40 for 19 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 4891 (3:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LA 40 for 19 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q502:50 (2:50) 17-J.Allen left end ran ob at LA 27 for 13 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 4913 (2:50) 17-J.Allen left end ran ob at LA 27 for 13 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q502:45 (2:45) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 27 for no gain (90-T.Davis). Play 4940 (2:45) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 27 for no gain (90-T.Davis).
Q502:00 (2:00) 16-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 4965 (2:00) 16-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Game seconds remaining 1514
Half seconds remaining 1514
Quarter seconds remaining 614
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA 2.62 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1514
Half seconds remaining 1514
Quarter seconds remaining 614
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1514
Half seconds remaining 1514
Quarter seconds remaining 614
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:08 Penalty · BUF (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at LA 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA -7.56 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 8
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1142
Half seconds remaining 1142
Quarter seconds remaining 242
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 20
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1142
Half seconds remaining 1142
Quarter seconds remaining 242
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA -2.34 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 8
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1142
Half seconds remaining 1142
Quarter seconds remaining 242
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 20
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1142
Half seconds remaining 1142
Quarter seconds remaining 242
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q408:51 Penalty · LA (8:51) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams (21-D.Igbinosun). PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA 5.17 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 8
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 527
Half seconds remaining 527
Quarter seconds remaining 527
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 527
Half seconds remaining 527
Quarter seconds remaining 527
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA 1.01 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 8
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 527
Half seconds remaining 527
Quarter seconds remaining 527
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 527
Half seconds remaining 527
Quarter seconds remaining 527
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q402:42 Penalty · BUF (2:42) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA 4.6 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 15
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 162
Half seconds remaining 162
Quarter seconds remaining 162
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 162
Half seconds remaining 162
Quarter seconds remaining 162
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA 0.69 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 15
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 162
Half seconds remaining 162
Quarter seconds remaining 162
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 162
Half seconds remaining 162
Quarter seconds remaining 162
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q214:27 Penalty · LA (14:27) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-55-M.Hoecht, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA 3.89 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2667
Half seconds remaining 867
Quarter seconds remaining 867
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 4
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2667
Half seconds remaining 867
Quarter seconds remaining 867
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA 1.32 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2667
Half seconds remaining 867
Quarter seconds remaining 867
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 4
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2667
Half seconds remaining 867
Quarter seconds remaining 867
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q303:49 Penalty · BUF (3:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-68-T.Grable, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 8 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA 3.29 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 13
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1129
Half seconds remaining 1129
Quarter seconds remaining 229
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 8
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1129
Half seconds remaining 1129
Quarter seconds remaining 229
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA 0.59 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 13
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1129
Half seconds remaining 1129
Quarter seconds remaining 229
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 8
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1129
Half seconds remaining 1129
Quarter seconds remaining 229
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q202:15 Penalty · LA (2:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA -2.93 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1935
Half seconds remaining 135
Quarter seconds remaining 135
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1935
Half seconds remaining 135
Quarter seconds remaining 135
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA -0.68 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1935
Half seconds remaining 135
Quarter seconds remaining 135
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1935
Half seconds remaining 135
Quarter seconds remaining 135
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q312:08 Penalty · LA (12:08) (Run formation) PENALTY on LA-89-T.Higbee, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA -2.75 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 6
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1628
Half seconds remaining 1628
Quarter seconds remaining 728
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1628
Half seconds remaining 1628
Quarter seconds remaining 728
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA -1.94 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 6
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1628
Half seconds remaining 1628
Quarter seconds remaining 728
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1628
Half seconds remaining 1628
Quarter seconds remaining 728
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:56 Fourth down · LA (6:56) 42-E.Evans punts 62 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 39 for 14 yards (33-D.Connors; 89-T.Higbee). + Fourth down decision cost LA 2.3 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Away total 26
Home total 29.5
Total line 55.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.2766464866656881
Yardline 100 87
Elapsed share 0.6344444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1316
Half seconds remaining 1316
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 416
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5630341070183286 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56303/ NA/0.54001 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Fourth down · LA (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-G.Dortch. + Fourth down decision cost LA 1.51 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Away total 26
Home total 29.5
Total line 55.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.5412339259223918
Yardline 100 43
Elapsed share 0.4666666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1920
Half seconds remaining 120
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 120
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.3665731204288079 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36611/0.36657/0.35143 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:36 Penalty · BUF (6:36) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA 1.42 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 15
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 2196
Half seconds remaining 396
Quarter seconds remaining 396
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 2196
Half seconds remaining 396
Quarter seconds remaining 396
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA 0.64 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 15
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 2196
Half seconds remaining 396
Quarter seconds remaining 396
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 2196
Half seconds remaining 396
Quarter seconds remaining 396
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q111:25 Penalty · LA (11:25) PENALTY on LA-69-K.Dotson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA -0.82 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3385
Half seconds remaining 1585
Quarter seconds remaining 685
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3385
Half seconds remaining 1585
Quarter seconds remaining 685
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA -0.5 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3385
Half seconds remaining 1585
Quarter seconds remaining 685
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3385
Half seconds remaining 1585
Quarter seconds remaining 685
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Show the remaining 31 recorded events Q113:28 Kick · BUF (13:28) 16-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Away total 26
Home total 29.5
Total line 55.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 3.159901152556914
Yardline 100 31
Elapsed share 0.02555555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3508
Half seconds remaining 1708
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 808
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.3636438525515859 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35561/0.36364/0.34953 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 1 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q108:00 Fourth down · LA (8:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to BUF 37 for 2 yards (24-C.Bishop; 21-D.Igbinosun). + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Away total 26
Home total 29.5
Total line 55.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 2.194811798455696
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.1166666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q311:50 Fourth down · LA (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 30 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop). + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Away total 26
Home total 29.5
Total line 55.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.3835258930909917
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.5527777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q308:24 Fourth down · BUF (8:24) 39-T.Doman punts 52 yards to LA 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-A.Bachman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 21
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Away total 26
Home total 29.5
Total line 55.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.3050629801169346
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.61
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q106:51 Penalty · LA (6:51) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 21 for 9 yards (99-T.Parker). PENALTY on LA-89-T.Higbee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 25. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:40 Kick · LA (5:40) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Fourth down decision cost LA 2.54 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Away total 26
Home total 29.5
Total line 55.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.878626164749785
Yardline 100 32
Elapsed share 0.1555555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q103:10 Penalty · BUF (3:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at LA 46 for -10 yards (99-A.Donald). PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LA 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:13 Kick · BUF (:13) 16-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0.4 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LA
Away total 26
Home total 29.5
Total line 55.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.306311364114098
Yardline 100 5
Elapsed share 0.2463888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q208:00 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q205:09 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF -0.86 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q202:31 Penalty · LA (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:37 Penalty · BUF (:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:20 Penalty · LA (:20) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:11 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q310:05 Penalty · BUF (10:05) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 37 for 5 yards (10-J.Stewart; 3-K.Curl). PENALTY on LA-55-B.Fiske, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 37. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:54 Penalty · BUF (9:54) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to LA 31 for 17 yards (37-Q.Lake; 3-K.Curl). PENALTY on BUF-68-T.Grable, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:12 Fumble · BUF (6:12) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for no gain (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at 50. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LA -0.24 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BUF 0.24 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q304:34 Penalty · BUF (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to LA 12 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:49 Penalty · BUF (3:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LA 4 for 9 yards (5-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at LA 4. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:45 Penalty · BUF (Pass formation) PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:45 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF -0.86 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q302:45 Penalty · LA 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LA 4. 88-J.Whittington to LA 27 for 23 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on LA-44-G.Stuard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 27. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:16 Penalty · BUF 92-H.Mevis kicks 58 yards from LA 35 to BUF 7. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 32 for 25 yards (48-O.Speights). PENALTY on BUF-83-K.Latu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 30. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:41 Penalty · BUF (11:41) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to LA 1 for 1 yard (0-B.Young). PENALTY on LA-10-J.Stewart, Defensive Offside, 1 yard, enforced at LA 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:14 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q401:39 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF -0.86 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q400:05 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q509:12 Penalty · BUF (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson to BUF 40 for 10 yards (91-K.Turner; 53-N.Landman). PENALTY on BUF-13-S.Bell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 31. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q508:00 Fumble · BUF (8:00) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 22 for no gain (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 20. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LA -0.24 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BUF 0.24 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q504:16 Kick · LA (4:16) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (15-G.Rousseau), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Fourth down decision cost LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q502:00 Kick · BUF (2:00) 16-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Field goal points above expectation BUF 1 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Verify this snapshot
SHA-256 16dd6beebe0eb11b77cb29c837a78dd038a3e716dc74c646a2a6cb24bd6c00cf
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:55 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 bbaf0b1817bef11870f800237950c62ff24e576cc6ef7ea129d1225b8fd9c149nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 5:01 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 611b36c0339732d7b3a488a5b5b6fde0bdf3fd837ee491d980fc8d460f3b3e2eModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: def1f0c6baed59ef43bba4eb7705beefa04be23ca1be10e4d3990b296c66b42c
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 3 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 13, 2026, 5:09 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 13, 2026, 4:46 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 13, 2026, 4:11 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-3
Game seconds remaining 3180
Half seconds remaining 1380
Quarter seconds remaining 480
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5955390232914661 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59554/0.55233/0.54278 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-6
Game seconds remaining 1610
Half seconds remaining 1610
Quarter seconds remaining 710
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3596579273502866 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35966/0.33479/0.30520 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-1
Game seconds remaining 1404
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3642947863577244 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32323/ NA/0.36429 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-3
Game seconds remaining 3040
Half seconds remaining 1240
Quarter seconds remaining 340
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.574392314127172 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57439/0.54902/0.51616 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LA -2.39 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 2713
Half seconds remaining 913
Quarter seconds remaining 13
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5590870227265893 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55909/0.55512/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 1 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled