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Debatable 2 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The final score was unusually far from the pregame spread.
The final margin missed the spread by 25.5 points. How this rating was calculated Debatable (2/5): The final score was unusually far from the pregame spread.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: GB by 34.4; actual result: GB by 24.
The 10.4-point difference was matched or exceeded in 168 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 62.06%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty yards: 45 versus 96.0 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 350 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Debatable · 2/5 Recorded spread: CHI by 1.5; actual result: GB by 24. The difference was 25.5 points.
446 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 18.43%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result An unexpected result Expected margin Chicago Bears by 1.5
Final margin Green Bay Packers by 24
Difference 25.5 points
Green Bay Packers covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
446 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (6.1%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score GB by 34.4
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Green Bay Packers chance to win during the game 145 preplay estimates across 170 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 25 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
GB Observed ruling consequence 1.51 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence 0.77 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 2 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 13:26 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 2039 (13:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-J.Sturdivant for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on GB-87-J.Sturdivant, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 43 - No Play.
A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified. Estimated chance to win moved 1.0 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 03:23 Recorded game event
Chicago Bears · Play 1398 (3:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (98-J.Hargrave). PENALTY on GB-44-Z.Franklin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at GB 13 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on GB awarded CHI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.0 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 170 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 170 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 28-T.Smack kicks 59 yards from GB 35 to CHI 6. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 29 for 23 yards (36-K.Hadden; 33-E.Williams). Play 40 28-T.Smack kicks 59 yards from GB 35 to CHI 6. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 29 for 23 yards (36-K.Hadden; 33-E.Williams).
Q114:55 (14:55) 10-L.Burden left end pushed ob at CHI 30 for 1 yard (33-E.Williams). Play 63 (14:55) 10-L.Burden left end pushed ob at CHI 30 for 1 yard (33-E.Williams).
Q114:35 (14:35) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 43 for 13 yards (44-Z.Franklin). Play 90 (14:35) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 43 for 13 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q114:06 (14:06) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 44 for 1 yard (25-K.Nixon). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 30 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q203:23 Penalty · CHI (3:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (98-J.Hargrave). PENALTY on GB-44-Z.Franklin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at GB 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB -4.84 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 8
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 1989
Half seconds remaining 189
Quarter seconds remaining 189
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 160870855781141553c2160785280eddbd2d358b0f57ca161b36e9342a3d1e00GB by 24
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
168 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 350 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Clay Martin Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.8 accepted penalties for 99.4 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.7 / 48.1 yd per game. Away teams: 6.1 / 51.3 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Clay Martin; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Green Bay Packers · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Green Bay Packers · Opponent penalties Opponent CHI was charged 3 penalties for 20 yards.
Chicago Bears · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Chicago Bears · Opponent penalties Opponent GB was charged 4 penalties for 25 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 145 model estimates across 170 recorded game entries.
25 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (170 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence -4.84 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence -2.56 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence 0.76 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47732/ NA/0.51468 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71777/0.68077/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0.55 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17360/ NA/0.16806 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0.2 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.78861/ NA/0.78659 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.23029/0.17510/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16415/0.17337/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85055/ NA/0.87898 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0.95 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09795/ NA/0.08847 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.91306/0.91848/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.06116/ NA/0.04851 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0.04 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00532/0.00570/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99944/0.99956/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0.02 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00067/0.00086/0.00038 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99957/0.99960/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99953/ NA/0.99955 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 4e-05/ NA/1e-05 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
GB Fumble recoveries above expectation 1.34 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
CHI Fumble recoveries above expectation -1.34 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
GB Field goal points above expectation -4.87 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
CHI Field goal points above expectation -2.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 92nd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
GB Extra point points above expectation -0.88 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 86th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
CHI Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
GB Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 170 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
CHI Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 170 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
CHI Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CHI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.25 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CHI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.45 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CHI Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.51 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.1 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.05 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.5 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.52 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 125
(14:06) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 44 for 1 yard (25-K.Nixon).
Q113:28 (13:28) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 33 for -11 yards (95-D.Wyatt). Play 147 (13:28) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 33 for -11 yards (95-D.Wyatt).
Q112:45 (12:45) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 4-D.Swift to CHI 38 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin). Play 167 (12:45) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 4-D.Swift to CHI 38 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q112:13 (12:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to GB 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds. Play 192 (12:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to GB 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
Q112:04 (12:04) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to GB 22 for 13 yards (31-D.Thieneman) [98-M.Sweat]. Play 211 (12:04) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to GB 22 for 13 yards (31-D.Thieneman) [98-M.Sweat].
Q111:25 (11:25) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to GB 23 for 1 yard (55-D.Odeyingbo; 12-D.Bush). Play 236 (11:25) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to GB 23 for 1 yard (55-D.Odeyingbo; 12-D.Bush).
Q110:43 (10:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right tackle to GB 29 for 6 yards (50-G.Jarrett). Play 258 (10:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right tackle to GB 29 for 6 yards (50-G.Jarrett).
Q109:58 (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden to GB 32 for 3 yards (21-C.Lewis). Play 280 (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden to GB 32 for 3 yards (21-C.Lewis).
Q109:16 (9:16) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 37 for 5 yards (53-T.Edwards). Play 305 (9:16) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 37 for 5 yards (53-T.Edwards).
Q108:38 (8:38) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 47 for 10 yards (29-T.Stevenson). Play 327 (8:38) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 47 for 10 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
Q107:58 (7:58) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to CHI 48 for 5 yards (48-D.Jackson). Play 349 (7:58) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to CHI 48 for 5 yards (48-D.Jackson).
Q107:10 (7:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 22-P.Strong to CHI 44 for 4 yards (21-C.Lewis). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 374 (7:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 22-P.Strong to CHI 44 for 4 yards (21-C.Lewis). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q106:37 (6:37) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to CHI 42 for 2 yards (97-J.Lynch; 93-K.Street). Play 399 (6:37) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to CHI 42 for 2 yards (97-J.Lynch; 93-K.Street).
Q105:57 (5:57) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 423 (5:57) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q105:51 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 449 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q105:51 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to CHI 0. 13-Z.Thomas pushed ob at CHI 26 for 26 yards (36-K.Hadden). Play 464 28-T.Smack kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to CHI 0. 13-Z.Thomas pushed ob at CHI 26 for 26 yards (36-K.Hadden).
Q105:45 (5:45) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 85-C.Kmet. Play 499 (5:45) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 85-C.Kmet.
Q105:39 (5:39) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney (7-J.Bullard) at CHI 45. 29-X.McKinney to CHI 45 for no gain (10-L.Burden). Play 534 (5:39) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney (7-J.Bullard) at CHI 45. 29-X.McKinney to CHI 45 for no gain (10-L.Burden).
Q105:32 (5:32) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 32-M.Lloyd to CHI 39 for 6 yards (12-D.Bush; 48-D.Jackson). Play 561 (5:32) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 32-M.Lloyd to CHI 39 for 6 yards (12-D.Bush; 48-D.Jackson).
Q104:48 (4:48) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left end to CHI 33 for 6 yards (12-D.Bush). Play 593 (4:48) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left end to CHI 33 for 6 yards (12-D.Bush).
Q104:05 (4:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 22-P.Strong to CHI 25 for 8 yards (93-K.Street; 12-D.Bush) [50-G.Jarrett]. Play 615 (4:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 22-P.Strong to CHI 25 for 8 yards (93-K.Street; 12-D.Bush) [50-G.Jarrett].
Q103:20 (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Watson (55-D.Odeyingbo). Play 640 (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Watson (55-D.Odeyingbo).
Q103:16 (3:16) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 24 for 1 yard (12-D.Bush; 31-D.Thieneman). Play 663 (3:16) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 24 for 1 yard (12-D.Bush; 31-D.Thieneman).
Q102:37 (2:37) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 22 for 2 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo). Play 685 (2:37) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 22 for 2 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo).
Q101:51 (1:51) 32-M.Lloyd right end pushed ob at CHI 19 for 3 yards (53-T.Edwards). Play 707 (1:51) 32-M.Lloyd right end pushed ob at CHI 19 for 3 yards (53-T.Edwards).
Q101:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden to CHI 7 for 12 yards (21-C.Lewis; 48-D.Jackson). Play 734 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden to CHI 7 for 12 yards (21-C.Lewis; 48-D.Jackson).
Q100:46 (:46) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short right to 23-S.Moore to CHI 7 for no gain (21-C.Lewis). Play 759 (:46) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short right to 23-S.Moore to CHI 7 for no gain (21-C.Lewis).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 784 Q215:00 (15:00) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 804 (15:00) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q214:56 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 829 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q214:56 28-T.Smack kicks 64 yards from GB 35 to CHI 1. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 25 for 24 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 36-K.Hadden). Play 844 28-T.Smack kicks 64 yards from GB 35 to CHI 1. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 25 for 24 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 36-K.Hadden).
Q214:50 (14:50) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CHI 27 for 2 yards (90-L.Van Ness; 98-J.Hargrave). Play 874 (14:50) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CHI 27 for 2 yards (90-L.Van Ness; 98-J.Hargrave).
Q214:09 (14:09) 23-R.Johnson right end to CHI 29 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin). Play 896 (14:09) 23-R.Johnson right end to CHI 29 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q213:30 (13:30) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 15-R.Odunze. Play 918 (13:30) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 15-R.Odunze.
Q213:26 (13:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-9-J.Walker. Play 941 (13:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-9-J.Walker.
Q213:15 (13:15) 22-P.Strong right end to GB 21 for 1 yard (94-A.Booker). Play 966 (13:15) 22-P.Strong right end to GB 21 for 1 yard (94-A.Booker).
Q212:32 (12:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 22-P.Strong pushed ob at GB 20 for -1 yards (53-T.Edwards). Play 995 (12:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 22-P.Strong pushed ob at GB 20 for -1 yards (53-T.Edwards).
Q211:59 (11:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 16-B.Melton to GB 28 for 8 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 53-T.Edwards). Play 1025 (11:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 16-B.Melton to GB 28 for 8 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 53-T.Edwards).
Q211:13 (11:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 22 for 9 yards (87-J.Sturdivant). Play 1050 (11:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 22 for 9 yards (87-J.Sturdivant).
Q211:03 (11:03) 17-T.Bagent scrambles left end pushed ob at CHI 28 for 6 yards (29-X.McKinney). Play 1076 (11:03) 17-T.Bagent scrambles left end pushed ob at CHI 28 for 6 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q210:37 (10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to CHI 28 for no gain (57-B.Cox). Play 1110 (10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to CHI 28 for no gain (57-B.Cox).
Q209:58 (9:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 38 for 10 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 1132 (9:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 38 for 10 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q209:23 (9:23) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams) [55-C.McClellan]. Play 1154 (9:23) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams) [55-C.McClellan].
Q208:50 (8:50) 4-D.Swift left guard to CHI 43 for 2 yards (57-B.Cox). Play 1179 (8:50) 4-D.Swift left guard to CHI 43 for 2 yards (57-B.Cox).
Q208:13 (8:13) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 85-C.Kmet to GB 49 for 8 yards (33-E.Williams) [98-J.Hargrave]. Play 1201 (8:13) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 85-C.Kmet to GB 49 for 8 yards (33-E.Williams) [98-J.Hargrave].
Q207:39 (7:39) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 10-L.Burden ran ob at GB 36 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 1226 (7:39) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 10-L.Burden ran ob at GB 36 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q207:11 (7:11) (Shotgun) 10-L.Burden right end to GB 36 for no gain (7-J.Bullard; 25-K.Nixon). Play 1261 (7:11) (Shotgun) 10-L.Burden right end to GB 36 for no gain (7-J.Bullard; 25-K.Nixon).
Q206:25 (6:25) 4-D.Swift right tackle to GB 27 for 9 yards (90-L.Van Ness). Play 1283 (6:25) 4-D.Swift right tackle to GB 27 for 9 yards (90-L.Van Ness).
Q205:44 (5:44) 4-D.Swift right tackle to GB 15 for 12 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 1305 (5:44) 4-D.Swift right tackle to GB 15 for 12 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q205:00 (5:00) 23-R.Johnson right guard to GB 14 for 1 yard (99-B.Sorrell). Play 1327 (5:00) 23-R.Johnson right guard to GB 14 for 1 yard (99-B.Sorrell).
Q204:23 (4:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 14 - No Play. Play 1349 (4:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 14 - No Play.
Q204:08 (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to GB 13 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin). Play 1373 (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to GB 13 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q203:23 (3:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (98-J.Hargrave). PENALTY on GB-44-Z.Franklin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at GB 13 - No Play. Play 1398 (3:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (98-J.Hargrave). PENALTY on GB-44-Z.Franklin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at GB 13 - No Play.
Q203:09 (3:09) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent right end to GB 1 for 7 yards (95-D.Wyatt). Play 1432 (3:09) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent right end to GB 1 for 7 yards (95-D.Wyatt).
Q202:27 (2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (51-D.Dennis-Sutton). Play 1454 (2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (51-D.Dennis-Sutton).
Q202:00 (2:00) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to 15-R.Odunze (25-K.Nixon). Play 1476 (2:00) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to 15-R.Odunze (25-K.Nixon).
Q201:56 (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1506 (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q201:53 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Play 1529 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q201:53 8-C.Santos kicks 64 yards from CHI 35 to GB 1. 16-B.Melton to GB 21 for 20 yards (9-J.Walker). Play 1544 8-C.Santos kicks 64 yards from CHI 35 to GB 1. 16-B.Melton to GB 21 for 20 yards (9-J.Walker).
Q201:49 (1:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-77-J.Morgan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 21 - No Play. Play 1574 (1:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-77-J.Morgan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 21 - No Play.
Q201:49 (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 16-B.Melton pushed ob at GB 20 for 4 yards (24-M.Muhammad). Play 1598 (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 16-B.Melton pushed ob at GB 20 for 4 yards (24-M.Muhammad).
Q201:44 (1:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at GB 25 for 5 yards (29-T.Stevenson). Play 1628 (1:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at GB 25 for 5 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
Q201:40 (1:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Melton (31-D.Thieneman). Play 1658 (1:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Melton (31-D.Thieneman).
Q201:36 (1:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20. Play 1681 (1:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.
Q201:22 (1:22) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 4-D.Swift to CHI 16 for 6 yards (58-I.McDuffie). Play 1722 (1:22) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 4-D.Swift to CHI 16 for 6 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
Q201:00 (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 10 for -6 yards (2-B.Cisse). Play 1754 (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 10 for -6 yards (2-B.Cisse).
Q200:56 Timeout #1 by GB at 00:56. Play 1786 Timeout #1 by GB at 00:56.
Q200:56 (:56) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep middle to 15-R.Odunze (2-B.Cisse). Play 1774 (:56) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep middle to 15-R.Odunze (2-B.Cisse).
Q200:51 (:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to GB 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden ran ob at CHI 49 for 17 yards (87-S.Roush). Play 1804 (:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to GB 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden ran ob at CHI 49 for 17 yards (87-S.Roush).
Q200:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -6 yards (94-A.Booker). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker) [94-A.Booker], and recovers at GB 46. Play 1835 (:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -6 yards (94-A.Booker). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker) [94-A.Booker], and recovers at GB 46.
Q200:16 (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Watson. PENALTY on GB-87-J.Sturdivant, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at GB 46 - No Play. Play 1865 (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Watson. PENALTY on GB-87-J.Sturdivant, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at GB 46 - No Play.
Q200:13 (:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 37 for -4 yards (94-A.Booker). Play 1899 (:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 37 for -4 yards (94-A.Booker).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 1919 Q315:00 8-C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to GB 0. 16-B.Melton to GB 28 for 28 yards (30-Z.Scott). Play 1939 8-C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to GB 0. 16-B.Melton to GB 28 for 28 yards (30-Z.Scott).
Q314:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to CHI 41 for 31 yards (31-D.Thieneman). Play 1964 (14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to CHI 41 for 31 yards (31-D.Thieneman).
Q314:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to CHI 43 for -2 yards (97-J.Lynch). Play 1989 (14:15) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to CHI 43 for -2 yards (97-J.Lynch).
Q313:33 (13:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 9-C.Watson (29-T.Stevenson). Play 2011 (13:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 9-C.Watson (29-T.Stevenson).
Q313:26 (13:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-J.Sturdivant for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on GB-87-J.Sturdivant, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 43 - No Play. Play 2039 (13:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-J.Sturdivant for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on GB-87-J.Sturdivant, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 43 - No Play.
Q313:19 (13:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2076 (13:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q313:10 28-T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 2107 28-T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q313:10 28-T.Smack kicks 60 yards from GB 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 33 for 28 yards (31-N.Niemann). Play 2122 28-T.Smack kicks 60 yards from GB 35 to CHI 5. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 33 for 28 yards (31-N.Niemann).
Q313:04 (13:04) 4-D.Swift left tackle to CHI 41 for 8 yards (7-J.Bullard; 33-E.Williams). Play 2152 (13:04) 4-D.Swift left tackle to CHI 41 for 8 yards (7-J.Bullard; 33-E.Williams).
Q312:31 (12:31) 10-L.Burden left end to CHI 48 for 7 yards (59-T.Hopper; 33-E.Williams). Play 2174 (12:31) 10-L.Burden left end to CHI 48 for 7 yards (59-T.Hopper; 33-E.Williams).
Q311:52 (11:52) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Loveland. Play 2204 (11:52) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Loveland.
Q311:48 (11:48) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to GB 35 for 17 yards (7-J.Bullard; 33-E.Williams). Play 2232 (11:48) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to GB 35 for 17 yards (7-J.Bullard; 33-E.Williams).
Q311:11 (11:11) 13-Z.Thomas left end ran ob at GB 24 for 11 yards (7-J.Bullard). Play 2267 (11:11) 13-Z.Thomas left end ran ob at GB 24 for 11 yards (7-J.Bullard).
Q310:36 (10:36) 17-T.Bagent scrambles left end ran ob at GB 20 for 4 yards (59-T.Hopper). Play 2294 (10:36) 17-T.Bagent scrambles left end ran ob at GB 20 for 4 yards (59-T.Hopper).
Q310:07 (10:07) 14-K.Raymond right end to GB 22 for -2 yards (94-K.Brooks). Play 2321 (10:07) 14-K.Raymond right end to GB 22 for -2 yards (94-K.Brooks).
Q309:23 (9:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 14-K.Raymond to GB 25 for -3 yards (51-D.Dennis-Sutton). Play 2343 (9:23) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 14-K.Raymond to GB 25 for -3 yards (51-D.Dennis-Sutton).
Q308:40 (8:40) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Play 2368 (8:40) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q308:36 (8:36) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to GB 31 for -2 yards (12-D.Bush). Play 2389 (8:36) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to GB 31 for -2 yards (12-D.Bush).
Q308:01 (8:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at GB 41 for 10 yards (24-M.Muhammad). Play 2423 (8:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at GB 41 for 10 yards (24-M.Muhammad).
Q307:42 (7:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at GB 47 for 6 yards (24-M.Muhammad). Play 2453 (7:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at GB 47 for 6 yards (24-M.Muhammad).
Q307:12 (7:12) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 32-M.Lloyd. Play 2483 (7:12) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 32-M.Lloyd.
Q307:08 (7:08) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 46 for -1 yards (50-G.Jarrett). Play 2506 (7:08) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 46 for -1 yards (50-G.Jarrett).
Q306:26 (6:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 22-P.Strong. Play 2528 (6:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 22-P.Strong.
Q306:22 (6:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. Play 2551 (6:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
Q306:14 (6:14) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CHI 16 for 3 yards (57-B.Cox). Play 2571 (6:14) (Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CHI 16 for 3 yards (57-B.Cox).
Q305:38 (5:38) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 22 for 6 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 2600 (5:38) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 22 for 6 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q305:03 (5:03) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CHI 20 for -2 yards (44-Z.Franklin). Play 2625 (5:03) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CHI 20 for -2 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q304:20 (4:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to GB 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 38 for 10 yards (38-S.Thomas). Play 2647 (4:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to GB 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 38 for 10 yards (38-S.Thomas).
Q304:08 (4:08) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at CHI 16 for 46 yards (24-M.Muhammad). Play 2678 (4:08) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at CHI 16 for 46 yards (24-M.Muhammad).
Q303:29 (3:29) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 11 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis). Play 2715 (3:29) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 11 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis).
Q302:48 (2:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to CHI 17 for -6 yards (12-D.Bush). Play 2742 (2:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to CHI 17 for -6 yards (12-D.Bush).
Q302:07 (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (1-J.Johnson). Play 2767 (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (1-J.Johnson).
Q302:02 (2:02) 28-T.Smack 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 2790 (2:02) 28-T.Smack 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q301:58 28-T.Smack kicks 62 yards from GB 35 to CHI 3. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 33 for 30 yards (87-J.Sturdivant). Play 2810 28-T.Smack kicks 62 yards from GB 35 to CHI 3. 13-Z.Thomas to CHI 33 for 30 yards (87-J.Sturdivant).
Q301:52 (1:52) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 39 for 6 yards (58-I.McDuffie). Play 2845 (1:52) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 4-D.Swift pushed ob at CHI 39 for 6 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
Q301:26 (1:26) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep right to 10-L.Burden. Play 2875 (1:26) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep right to 10-L.Burden.
Q301:20 (1:20) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Loveland. Play 2898 (1:20) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Loveland.
Q301:16 (1:16) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 46 for 7 yards (58-I.McDuffie). Play 2921 (1:16) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 46 for 7 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
Q300:41 (:41) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 42. 29-X.McKinney to GB 45 for 3 yards (13-Z.Thomas). Play 2950 (:41) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 42. 29-X.McKinney to GB 45 for 3 yards (13-Z.Thomas).
Q300:34 (:34) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to CHI 19 for 36 yards (1-J.Johnson). Play 2977 (:34) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to CHI 19 for 36 yards (1-J.Johnson).
Q300:07 (:07) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at CHI 4 for 15 yards (1-J.Johnson). Play 3002 (:07) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at CHI 4 for 15 yards (1-J.Johnson).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3032 Q415:00 (15:00) 32-M.Lloyd left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3052 (15:00) 32-M.Lloyd left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q414:55 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Love pass to 0-M.Golden is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 3075 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Love pass to 0-M.Golden is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q414:55 28-T.Smack kicks 57 yards from GB 35 to CHI 8. 13-Z.Thomas to GB 31 for 61 yards (31-N.Niemann). Play 3088 28-T.Smack kicks 57 yards from GB 35 to CHI 8. 13-Z.Thomas to GB 31 for 61 yards (31-N.Niemann).
Q414:47 (14:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to GB 8 for 23 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 3111 (14:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to GB 8 for 23 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q414:13 (14:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to GB 3 for 5 yards (7-J.Bullard). Play 3136 (14:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 10-L.Burden to GB 3 for 5 yards (7-J.Bullard).
Q413:40 (13:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 23-R.Johnson. Play 3161 (13:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 23-R.Johnson.
Q413:36 (13:36) 10-L.Burden right end to GB 9 for -6 yards (25-K.Nixon, 44-Z.Franklin). Play 3184 (13:36) 10-L.Burden right end to GB 9 for -6 yards (25-K.Nixon, 44-Z.Franklin).
Q412:58 Timeout #1 by GB at 12:58. Play 3218 Timeout #1 by GB at 12:58.
Q412:58 (12:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Hopper [90-L.Van Ness] at GB -1. 59-T.Hopper to GB 19 for 20 yards (23-R.Johnson). Play 3206 (12:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Hopper [90-L.Van Ness] at GB -1. 59-T.Hopper to GB 19 for 20 yards (23-R.Johnson).
Q412:49 (12:49) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 0-M.Golden to CHI 31 for 50 yards (1-J.Johnson) [90-N.Gallimore]. Play 3240 (12:49) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 0-M.Golden to CHI 31 for 50 yards (1-J.Johnson) [90-N.Gallimore].
Q412:00 (12:00) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson to CHI 29 for 2 yards (1-J.Johnson). Play 3272 (12:00) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson to CHI 29 for 2 yards (1-J.Johnson).
Q411:20 (11:20) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong left guard to CHI 31 for -2 yards (31-D.Thieneman, 94-A.Booker). Play 3297 (11:20) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong left guard to CHI 31 for -2 yards (31-D.Thieneman, 94-A.Booker).
Q410:37 (10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden to CHI 24 for 7 yards (31-D.Thieneman). Play 3319 (10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden to CHI 24 for 7 yards (31-D.Thieneman).
Q409:50 Timeout #2 by GB at 09:50. Play 3362 Timeout #2 by GB at 09:50.
Q409:50 (9:50) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 3344 (9:50) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q409:46 (9:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze to GB 47 for 20 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 33-E.Williams). Play 3372 (9:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze to GB 47 for 20 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 33-E.Williams).
Q409:23 (9:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Swift. Play 3409 (9:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Swift.
Q409:19 (9:19) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 15-R.Odunze (44-Z.Franklin). Play 3432 (9:19) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 15-R.Odunze (44-Z.Franklin).
Q409:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-58-D.Wright, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 47 - No Play. Play 3455 (9:14) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-58-D.Wright, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 47 - No Play.
Q409:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to GB 40 for 12 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 25-K.Nixon). Play 3479 (9:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to GB 40 for 12 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 25-K.Nixon).
Q408:36 (8:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to GB 31 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), touched at GB 37, RECOVERED by GB-33-E.Williams at GB 43. Play 3504 (8:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to GB 31 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), touched at GB 37, RECOVERED by GB-33-E.Williams at GB 43.
Q408:26 (8:26) 26-K.Johnson left guard to GB 44 for 1 yard (97-J.Lynch; 12-D.Bush). Play 3545 (8:26) 26-K.Johnson left guard to GB 44 for 1 yard (97-J.Lynch; 12-D.Bush).
Q407:41 (7:41) 26-K.Johnson left tackle pushed ob at CHI 33 for 23 yards (32-X.Woods). Play 3567 (7:41) 26-K.Johnson left tackle pushed ob at CHI 33 for 23 yards (32-X.Woods).
Q407:05 (7:05) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to CHI 35 for -2 yards (90-N.Gallimore). Play 3594 (7:05) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to CHI 35 for -2 yards (90-N.Gallimore).
Q406:22 (6:22) 26-K.Johnson left end to CHI 37 for -2 yards (94-A.Booker). Play 3616 (6:22) 26-K.Johnson left end to CHI 37 for -2 yards (94-A.Booker).
Q405:34 (5:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 16-B.Melton to CHI 29 for 8 yards (32-X.Woods). Play 3638 (5:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 16-B.Melton to CHI 29 for 8 yards (32-X.Woods).
Q405:25 Timeout #1 by CHI at 05:25. Play 3681 Timeout #1 by CHI at 05:25.
Q405:25 (5:25) 28-T.Smack 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 3663 (5:25) 28-T.Smack 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q405:21 (5:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 14-K.Raymond. Play 3691 (5:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 14-K.Raymond.
Q405:14 (5:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to CHI 42 for 5 yards (7-J.Bullard). Play 3721 (5:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to CHI 42 for 5 yards (7-J.Bullard).
Q404:50 (4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to 50 for 8 yards (7-J.Bullard) [90-L.Van Ness]. Play 3746 (4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to 50 for 8 yards (7-J.Bullard) [90-L.Van Ness].
Q404:24 (4:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short right to 13-Z.Thomas ran ob at GB 39 for 11 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 3771 (4:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short right to 13-Z.Thomas ran ob at GB 39 for 11 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q404:20 (4:20) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum sacked at GB 47 for -8 yards (95-D.Wyatt). FUMBLES (95-D.Wyatt) [95-D.Wyatt], RECOVERED by GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton at GB 41. Play 3801 (4:20) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum sacked at GB 47 for -8 yards (95-D.Wyatt). FUMBLES (95-D.Wyatt) [95-D.Wyatt], RECOVERED by GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton at GB 41.
Q404:12 (4:12) 26-K.Johnson left end to GB 41 for no gain (31-D.Thieneman). Play 3836 (4:12) 26-K.Johnson left end to GB 41 for no gain (31-D.Thieneman).
Q404:05 Timeout #2 by CHI at 04:05. Play 3870 Timeout #2 by CHI at 04:05.
Q404:05 (4:05) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to GB 41 for no gain (44-N.Sewell; 97-J.Lynch). Play 3858 (4:05) 26-K.Johnson left tackle to GB 41 for no gain (44-N.Sewell; 97-J.Lynch).
Q403:22 (3:22) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson left guard to GB 47 for 6 yards (48-D.Jackson). Play 3887 (3:22) (Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson left guard to GB 47 for 6 yards (48-D.Jackson).
Q403:18 Timeout #3 by CHI at 03:18. Play 3925 Timeout #3 by CHI at 03:18.
Q403:18 (3:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to CHI 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-Z.Thomas. Play 3909 (3:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to CHI 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-Z.Thomas.
Q403:11 (3:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to CHI 16 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 58-I.McDuffie). Play 3936 (3:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to CHI 16 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 58-I.McDuffie).
Q402:50 (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to CHI 21 for 5 yards (36-K.Hadden). Play 3961 (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to CHI 21 for 5 yards (36-K.Hadden).
Q402:21 (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum scrambles left end to CHI 25 for 4 yards (27-K.Oladapo). Play 3986 (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum scrambles left end to CHI 25 for 4 yards (27-K.Oladapo).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short left to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 32 for 7 yards (2-B.Cisse). GB-98-J.Hargrave was injured during the play. Play 4008 (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short left to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 32 for 7 yards (2-B.Cisse). GB-98-J.Hargrave was injured during the play.
Q401:53 Timeout #3 by GB at 01:53. Play 4060 Timeout #3 by GB at 01:53.
Q401:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 23-R.Johnson (51-D.Dennis-Sutton) [51-D.Dennis-Sutton]. Play 4045 (1:53) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 23-R.Johnson (51-D.Dennis-Sutton) [51-D.Dennis-Sutton].
Q401:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum sacked at CHI 21 for -11 yards (51-D.Dennis-Sutton). Play 4078 (1:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum sacked at CHI 21 for -11 yards (51-D.Dennis-Sutton).
Q401:13 (1:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 15-R.Odunze. Play 4098 (1:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 15-R.Odunze.
Q401:10 (1:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 9-J.Walker. Play 4121 (1:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 9-J.Walker.
Q401:03 (1:03) 6-T.Taylor kneels to CHI 22 for -1 yards. Play 4144 (1:03) 6-T.Taylor kneels to CHI 22 for -1 yards.
Q400:38 (:38) 6-T.Taylor kneels to CHI 23 for -1 yards. Play 4166 (:38) 6-T.Taylor kneels to CHI 23 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 1989
Half seconds remaining 189
Quarter seconds remaining 189
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB -2.56 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 8
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 8
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 1989
Half seconds remaining 189
Quarter seconds remaining 189
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 8
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 1989
Half seconds remaining 189
Quarter seconds remaining 189
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:23 Penalty · CHI (4:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 14 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB 1.51 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 14
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2063
Half seconds remaining 263
Quarter seconds remaining 263
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2063
Half seconds remaining 263
Quarter seconds remaining 263
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB 0.77 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 14
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2063
Half seconds remaining 263
Quarter seconds remaining 263
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 2063
Half seconds remaining 263
Quarter seconds remaining 263
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q304:20 Fourth down · CHI (4:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to GB 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 38 for 10 yards (38-S.Thomas). + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0.95 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.09969437698000977
Yardline 100 80
Elapsed share 0.6777777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1160
Half seconds remaining 1160
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 260
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.09795067661952424 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09795/ NA/0.08847 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:26 Fourth down · CHI (13:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-9-J.Walker. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0.55 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.4970924091148922
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.2761111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2606
Half seconds remaining 806
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 806
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1736028506678337 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17360/ NA/0.16806 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:13 Fourth down · GB (11:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 22 for 9 yards (87-J.Sturdivant). + Fourth down decision cost GB 0.2 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.4288032396440436
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.3130555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2473
Half seconds remaining 673
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 673
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7886129454620474 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.78861/ NA/0.78659 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:58 Fourth down · CHI (12:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Hopper [90-L.Van Ness] at GB -1. 59-T.Hopper to GB 19 for 20 yards (23-R.Johnson). + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0.04 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.0652133910166194
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.7838888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 778
Half seconds remaining 778
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 778
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.005704863874742725 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00532/0.00570/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:36 Fumble · CHI (8:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to GB 31 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), touched at GB 37, RECOVERED by GB-33-E.Williams at GB 43. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0.02 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.04874261605452734
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.8566666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 516
Half seconds remaining 516
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 516
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.000855843267959929 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00067/0.00086/0.00038 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation GB 1.34 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CHI -1.34 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q409:14 Penalty · CHI (9:14) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CHI-58-D.Wright, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 15
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 52
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 554
Half seconds remaining 554
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 554
Half seconds remaining 554
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB 0.76 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 15
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 52
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 554
Half seconds remaining 554
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 554
Half seconds remaining 554
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q112:13 Fourth down · CHI (12:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to GB 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -1.245964031224607
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.04638888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3433
Half seconds remaining 1633
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 733
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5146807072196101 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47732/ NA/0.51468 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:37 Fourth down · GB (2:37) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 22 for 2 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo). + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.6569873942948719
Yardline 100 24
Elapsed share 0.2063888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2857
Half seconds remaining 1057
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 157
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7177694722767077 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71777/0.68077/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:56 Fourth down · CHI (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.2309287626072597
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.4677777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -14
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1916
Half seconds remaining 116
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 116
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2302946941385585 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.23029/0.17510/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:40 Kick · CHI (8:40) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.1330863498930526
Yardline 100 25
Elapsed share 0.6055555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1420
Half seconds remaining 1420
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 520
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.1733720778306333 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16415/0.17337/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CHI -2.59 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 18 recorded events Q306:22 Fourth down · GB (6:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.1141672903038524
Yardline 100 54
Elapsed share 0.6438888888888888
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 13
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1282
Half seconds remaining 1282
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 382
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8789779867299748 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85055/ NA/0.87898 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:02 Kick · GB (2:02) 28-T.Smack 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.08552219583364373
Yardline 100 17
Elapsed share 0.7161111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q301:16 Fourth down · CHI (1:16) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 46 for 7 yards (58-I.McDuffie). + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.08126088906850554
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.7288888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q409:50 Kick · GB (9:50) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.05291971441265107
Yardline 100 24
Elapsed share 0.8361111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q405:25 Kick · GB (5:25) 28-T.Smack 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.03942229417187269
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.9097222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q403:18 Fourth down · GB (3:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to CHI 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-Z.Thomas. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.03423403713763947
Yardline 100 53
Elapsed share 0.945
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q401:10 Fourth down · CHI (1:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 9-J.Walker. + Fourth down decision cost CHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CHI
Ydstogo 21
Outdoors 1
Away team CHI
Home team GB
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.02969557856520678
Yardline 100 79
Elapsed share 0.9805555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam CHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q105:51 Kick · GB 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Extra point points above expectation GB -0.88 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q214:56 Kick · GB 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Extra point points above expectation GB -0.88 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q201:53 Kick · CHI 8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. + Extra point points above expectation CHI 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:49 Penalty · GB (1:49) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-77-J.Morgan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at GB 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:36 Penalty · GB (1:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:51 Fourth down · CHI (:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to GB 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden ran ob at CHI 49 for 17 yards (87-S.Roush). + Fourth down decision cost CHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:39 Fumble · GB (:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -6 yards (94-A.Booker). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker) [94-A.Booker], and recovers at GB 46. + Fumble recoveries above expectation GB 1.34 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CHI -1.34 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q200:16 Penalty · GB (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Watson. PENALTY on GB-87-J.Sturdivant, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at GB 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:26 Penalty · GB (13:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-J.Sturdivant for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on GB-87-J.Sturdivant, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:10 Kick · GB 28-T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Extra point points above expectation GB -0.88 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q404:20 Fumble · CHI (4:20) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum sacked at GB 47 for -8 yards (95-D.Wyatt). FUMBLES (95-D.Wyatt) [95-D.Wyatt], RECOVERED by GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton at GB 41. + Fumble recoveries above expectation GB 1.34 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CHI -1.34 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
nflverse-pbp Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:24 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1bfa77d0a8e65a74d9d0b4c1c4bf00caf5398740931600b1fe1da3db29ab5c53
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Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 8739301a7c1f39c24ff10851ee3ff5b557255d18a636eda24022977532ab13eaModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 0b8adff020a8d314f598c8d96ef7bc20bbe08203461420a1d8967510761e355f
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 3 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 11, 2026, 10:42 PM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 11, 2026, 9:18 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 8:41 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
13
Game seconds remaining 1022
Half seconds remaining 1022
Quarter seconds remaining 122
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9184841671671052 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.91306/0.91848/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation GB -4.87 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-16
Game seconds remaining 976
Half seconds remaining 976
Quarter seconds remaining 76
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.06115970189649507 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.06116/ NA/0.04851 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
24
Game seconds remaining 590
Half seconds remaining 590
Quarter seconds remaining 590
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9995588548439625 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99944/0.99956/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation GB -4.87 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
24
Game seconds remaining 325
Half seconds remaining 325
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9995975223630135 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99957/0.99960/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation GB -4.87 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
24
Game seconds remaining 198
Half seconds remaining 198
Quarter seconds remaining 198
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.999554061541356 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99953/ NA/0.99955 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-24
Quarter seconds remaining 70
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.00003822411949938584 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 4e-05/ NA/1e-05 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled