Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: CIN by 6.0; actual result: CIN by 7.
The 1.0-point difference was matched or exceeded in 736 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Opening the record…
Opening the record…
FINAL SCORE
GAME RATING
The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
| Game statistic | CINWIN | MIALOSS |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 31 | 24 |
| Total offensive yards | 307 | 331 |
| Penalties | 4 | 7 |
| Penalty yards | 39 | 30 |
| Turnover margin | +2 | -2 |
| Non-offensive touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
Push — the final margin matched the spread.
7,276 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (100%).
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗HOW THE GAME MOVED
How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
Loading fan feedback…
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
(9:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-E.All to MIA 24 for 4 yards (16-M.Taaffe). FUMBLES (16-M.Taaffe), RECOVERED by MIA-40-W.Gay at MIA 18. 40-W.Gay ran ob at MIA 18 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-E.All to MIA 24 for 4 yards (16-M.Taaffe). FUMBLES (16-M.Taaffe), ball out of bounds at MIA 18.
Estimated chance to win moved 0.4 percentage points across this play.
(4:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 15 for -7 yards (44-C.Robinson). PENALTY on MIA-44-C.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 22 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 1.0 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
GAME
47-R.Patterson kicks 56 yards from MIA 35 to CIN 9. 81-D.Meyers to MIA 10 for 81 yards (32-J.Simpson).
(14:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at MIA 4 for 6 yards (3-C.Johnson).
(14:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Chase (8-J.Brents).
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
-0.13 percentage points Supported
Updates automatically when source data changes.
This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright
SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0
SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 160870855781141553c2160785280eddbd2d358b0f57ca161b36e9342a3d1e00This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
736 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
| Comparison | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Actual | 4 / 39 yd | 7 / 30 yd |
| Expected for this matchup | 5.8 / 47.8 yd | 6.3 / 51.7 yd |
| League average | 6 / 49.5 yd | 6 / 49.5 yd |
| Team’s usual penalties | 5 / 38.9 yd · 84 games | 6.2 / 49.5 yd · 85 games |
| Opponent usually draws | 6.1 / 51.5 yd · 85 games | 6.1 / 50.8 yd · 84 games |
The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 623 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 104.4 yards across both teams.
| Team history with this referee | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 |
| Wins–losses–ties | 2–2–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Team penalties per game | 5.3 / 40.3 yd | 9.5 / 81 yd |
Home teams: 6.2 / 50.6 yd per game. Away teams: 6.4 / 53.8 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Brad Rogers; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Opponent CIN was charged 4 penalties for 39 yards.
Opponent MIA was charged 7 penalties for 30 yards.
14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385140 model estimates across 172 recorded game entries.
32 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
| Period | Clock | Source play | MIA win chance | Estimate source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 1 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 40 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 14:49 | Play 63 ↗ | 41.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:13 | Play 93 ↗ | 41.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:08 | Play 116 ↗ | 42.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:03 | Play 142 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 14:03 | Play 157 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 13:58 | Play 192 ↗ | 42.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:25 | Play 214 ↗ | 41.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:50 | Play 241 ↗ | 44.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:42 | Play 264 ↗ | 42.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:35 | Play 299 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 12:35 | Play 287 ↗ | 39.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:51 | Play 316 ↗ | 48.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:08 | Play 338 ↗ | 48.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:32 | Play 360 ↗ | 46.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:48 | Play 382 ↗ | 42.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:45 | Play 424 ↗ | 49.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:23 | Play 457 ↗ | 51.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:45 | Play 479 ↗ | 51.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:05 | Play 501 ↗ | 48.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:02 | Play 545 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 08:02 | Play 560 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 08:02 | Play 618 ↗ | 58.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:26 | Play 657 ↗ | 58.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:48 | Play 679 ↗ | 58.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:16 | Play 704 ↗ | 53.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:42 | Play 734 ↗ | 53.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:37 | Play 757 ↗ | 56.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:34 | Play 792 ↗ | 60.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:28 | Play 812 ↗ | 58.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:51 | Play 841 ↗ | 57.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:45 | Play 864 ↗ | 55.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:40 | Play 887 ↗ | 52.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:27 | Play 913 ↗ | 54.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:48 | Play 942 ↗ | 55.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:14 | Play 967 ↗ | 54.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:38 | Play 989 ↗ | 51.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:57 | Play 1011 ↗ | 53.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:21 | Play 1036 ↗ | 46.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:40 | Play 1058 ↗ | 46.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:00 | Play 1081 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 15:00 | Play 1101 ↗ | 43.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:23 | Play 1123 ↗ | 43.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:06 | Play 1162 ↗ | 43.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:25 | Play 1191 ↗ | 41.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:44 | Play 1216 ↗ | 41.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:56 | Play 1238 ↗ | 42.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:51 | Play 1264 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 11:51 | Play 1279 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 11:46 | Play 1314 ↗ | 38.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:08 | Play 1339 ↗ | 40.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:32 | Play 1361 ↗ | 39.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:20 | Play 1388 ↗ | 29.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:42 | Play 1422 ↗ | 27.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:01 | Play 1452 ↗ | 25.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:33 | Play 1536 ↗ | 25.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:20 | Play 1565 ↗ | 22.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:41 | Play 1587 ↗ | 22.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:03 | Play 1612 ↗ | 21.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:45 | Play 1670 ↗ | 36.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:06 | Play 1692 ↗ | 33.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:24 | Play 1714 ↗ | 34.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:15 | Play 1757 ↗ | 27.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:10 | Play 1780 ↗ | 28.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:26 | Play 1802 ↗ | 28.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:40 | Play 1827 ↗ | 24.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:08 | Play 1857 ↗ | 21.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:25 | Play 1879 ↗ | 18.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:00 | Play 1901 ↗ | 19.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:15 | Play 1930 ↗ | 17.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:00 | Play 1970 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:00 | Play 1958 ↗ | 16.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:55 | Play 1993 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:55 | Play 2008 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:55 | Play 2025 ↗ | 16.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:38 | Play 2050 ↗ | 17.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:32 | Play 2087 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:32 | Play 2075 ↗ | 18.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:28 | Play 2112 ↗ | 18.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:23 | Play 2156 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:23 | Play 2144 ↗ | 12.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:17 | Play 2174 ↗ | 10.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:09 | Play 2201 ↗ | 11.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:00 | Play 2231 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 15:00 | Play 2251 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 14:55 | Play 2279 ↗ | 14.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:14 | Play 2304 ↗ | 12.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:29 | Play 2324 ↗ | 10.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:14 | Play 2360 ↗ | 9.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:03 | Play 2386 ↗ | 10.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:21 | Play 2418 ↗ | 9.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:36 | Play 2443 ↗ | 9.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:04 | Play 2474 ↗ | 9.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:58 | Play 2504 ↗ | 10.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:51 | Play 2532 ↗ | 12.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:37 | Play 2558 ↗ | 13.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:59 | Play 2587 ↗ | 12.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:23 | Play 2609 ↗ | 15.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:44 | Play 2636 ↗ | 17.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:00 | Play 2658 ↗ | 19.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:18 | Play 2680 ↗ | 18.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:11 | Play 2703 ↗ | 17.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:52 | Play 2731 ↗ | 21.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:11 | Play 2755 ↗ | 20.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:26 | Play 2775 ↗ | 14.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:16 | Play 2807 ↗ | 11.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:13 | Play 2827 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 05:08 | Play 2857 ↗ | 12.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:24 | Play 2879 ↗ | 12.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:39 | Play 2904 ↗ | 11.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:56 | Play 2929 ↗ | 9.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:17 | Play 2965 ↗ | 9.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:30 | Play 2990 ↗ | 6.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:47 | Play 3012 ↗ | 7.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:39 | Play 3038 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 00:39 | Play 3053 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 00:32 | Play 3092 ↗ | 2.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:00 | Play 3114 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 15:00 | Play 3134 ↗ | 1.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:28 | Play 3159 ↗ | 1.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:28 | Play 3183 ↗ | 1.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:43 | Play 3205 ↗ | 3.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:59 | Play 3227 ↗ | 2.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:21 | Play 3252 ↗ | 2.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:43 | Play 3274 ↗ | 2.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:02 | Play 3299 ↗ | 2.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:22 | Play 3321 ↗ | 2.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:50 | Play 3349 ↗ | 2.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:07 | Play 3374 ↗ | 2.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:32 | Play 3396 ↗ | 2.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:56 | Play 3418 ↗ | 2.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:19 | Play 3440 ↗ | 2.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:13 | Play 3466 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 07:13 | Play 3490 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 07:12 | Play 3530 ↗ | 6.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:33 | Play 3552 ↗ | 7.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:01 | Play 3580 ↗ | 5.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:16 | Play 3604 ↗ | 4.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:12 | Play 3627 ↗ | 5.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:31 | Play 3649 ↗ | 3.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:24 | Play 3680 ↗ | 2.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:38 | Play 3702 ↗ | 1.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:52 | Play 3724 ↗ | 1.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:47 | Play 3758 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:47 | Play 3746 ↗ | 1.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:47 | Play 3777 ↗ | 1.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:45 | Play 3800 ↗ | 1.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:39 | Play 3820 ↗ | 3.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:34 | Play 3850 ↗ | 2.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:28 | Play 3879 ↗ | 0.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:24 | Play 3922 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:24 | Play 3910 ↗ | 0.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:19 | Play 3951 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:19 | Play 3958 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:19 | Play 3939 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:13 | Play 3976 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:09 | Play 3999 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:04 | Play 4022 ↗ | 0.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:00 | Play 4044 ↗ | 1.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:33 | Play 4076 ↗ | 0.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:30 | Play 4099 ↗ | 0.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:22 | Play 4129 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:06 | Play 4151 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:05 | Play 4177 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:48 | Play 4202 ↗ | 1.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:45 | Play 4225 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:45 | Play 4250 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:45 | Play 4240 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:45 | Play 4285 ↗ | 1.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:33 | Play 4307 ↗ | 1.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:00 | Play 4329 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Scoring turnover or replay requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
47-R.Patterson kicks onside 15 yards from MIA 35 to 50, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-47-R.Patterson, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at 50.
Estimated chance to win moved 0.4 percentage points across this play.
(14:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
2-E.McPherson kicks 59 yards from CIN 35 to MIA 6. 5-J.Wright MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 8. 5-J.Wright to MIA 40 for 32 yards (2-E.McPherson).
(13:58) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 42 for 2 yards (97-D.Lawrence).
(13:25) 6-M.Washington right end pushed ob at CIN 40 for 18 yards (27-J.Battle).
(12:50) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to 6-M.Washington.
(12:42) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Bell.
Timeout #1 by CIN at 12:35.
(12:35) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon right tackle to CIN 18 for 22 yards (49-B.Carter).
(11:51) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to CIN 14 for 4 yards (92-B.Hill; 23-D.Hill).
(11:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon right guard to CIN 12 for 2 yards (98-T.Slaton).
(10:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end to CIN 12 for no gain (27-J.Battle; 92-B.Hill).
(9:48) 47-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. PENALTY on CIN-97-D.Lawrence, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at CIN 12 - No Play.
(9:45) 0-O.Gordon left end to CIN 7 for -1 yards (44-D.Knight, 97-D.Lawrence). PENALTY on CIN-97-D.Lawrence, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CIN 6 - No Play.
(9:23) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to CIN 1 for 2 yards (49-B.Carter; 44-D.Knight).
(8:45) 2-M.Willis up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (97-D.Lawrence).
(8:05) 77-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 0-O.Gordon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
47-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
47-R.Patterson kicks 43 yards from MIA 35 to CIN 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on MIA-47-R.Patterson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at CIN 40. PENALTY on CIN-83-E.All, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
(8:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 31 for 6 yards (11-D.Trader; 8-J.Brents).
(7:26) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 33 for 2 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
(6:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins to CIN 47 for 14 yards (4-J.Marshall).
(6:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at CIN 48 for 1 yard (8-J.Brents).
(5:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Chase.
(5:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Higgins (11-D.Trader).
(5:34) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
(5:28) 5-J.Wright left tackle to MIA 9 for 1 yard (98-T.Slaton).
(4:51) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Bell.
(4:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 89-W.Kacmarek (93-J.Allen).
(4:40) 48-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 42 for 8 yards (83-S.Traore).
(4:27) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to CIN 43 for 1 yard (90-M.Herring; 94-J.Phillips).
(3:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins to MIA 49 for 8 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 11-D.Trader).
(3:14) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right guard to MIA 45 for 4 yards (4-J.Marshall; 16-M.Taaffe).
(2:38) 30-C.Brown left guard to MIA 42 for 3 yards (11-D.Trader; 40-W.Gay).
(1:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-E.All to MIA 35 for 7 yards (20-J.Brooks; 4-J.Marshall).
(1:21) 34-S.Perine right guard to MIA 29 for 6 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 20-J.Brooks).
(:40) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right guard to MIA 20 for 9 yards (3-C.Johnson).
END QUARTER 1
(15:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard to MIA 13 for 7 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 44-C.Robinson).
(14:23) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to MIA 11 for 2 yards (20-J.Brooks; 3-C.Johnson). MIA-20-J.Brooks was injured during the play.
(14:06) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to MIA 10 for 1 yard (9-J.Uche).
(13:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson to MIA 5 for 5 yards (3-C.Johnson; 92-Z.Sieler).
(12:44) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left end to MIA 6 for -1 yards (42-J.Woodard, 78-K.Grant).
(11:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 34-S.Perine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-C.Robinson].
2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
2-E.McPherson kicks 58 yards from CIN 35 to MIA 7. 5-J.Wright to MIA 28 for 21 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).
(11:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 1-J.Tolbert to 50 for 22 yards (38-D.Ivey).
(11:08) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to 50 for no gain (93-J.Allen; 97-D.Lawrence).
(10:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left intended for 21-K.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle (53-B.Mafe) at CIN 42. 27-J.Battle to CIN 49 for 7 yards (55-A.Brewer; 71-J.Savaiinaea).
(10:20) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end ran ob at MIA 40 for 11 yards (42-J.Woodard; 40-W.Gay).
(9:42) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at MIA 28 for 12 yards (8-J.Brents).
(9:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-E.All to MIA 24 for 4 yards (16-M.Taaffe). FUMBLES (16-M.Taaffe), RECOVERED by MIA-40-W.Gay at MIA 18. 40-W.Gay ran ob at MIA 18 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-E.All to MIA 24 for 4 yards (16-M.Taaffe). FUMBLES (16-M.Taaffe), ball out of bounds at MIA 18.
(8:33) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIA-9-J.Uche, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 24 - No Play.
(8:20) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to MIA 14 for 5 yards (11-D.Trader; 42-J.Woodard).
(7:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to MIA 10 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
(7:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to MIA 7 for 3 yards (3-C.Johnson). FUMBLES (3-C.Johnson), RECOVERED by MIA-44-C.Robinson at MIA 7. 44-C.Robinson to MIA 18 for 11 yards (1-J.Chase). FUMBLES (1-J.Chase), recovered by MIA-9-J.Uche at MIA 23.
(6:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright right end to MIA 22 for -1 yards (44-D.Knight).
(6:06) 5-J.Wright right tackle to MIA 29 for 7 yards (27-J.Battle).
(5:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right intended for 21-K.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at MIA 38. 27-J.Battle to MIA 38 for no gain (21-K.Coleman). PENALTY on CIN-23-D.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 38.
(5:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 5-T.Higgins.
(5:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard to 50 for 3 yards (40-W.Gay; 59-R.McGraw).
(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-T.Hudson to MIA 43 for 7 yards (16-M.Taaffe).
(3:40) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-E.All ran ob at MIA 29 for 14 yards (42-J.Woodard).
(3:08) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine left tackle to MIA 18 for 11 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 11-D.Trader).
(2:25) 34-S.Perine up the middle to MIA 13 for 5 yards (94-J.Phillips; 10-J.Rodriguez).
(2:00) 34-S.Perine right guard to MIA 10 for 3 yards (40-W.Gay; 10-J.Rodriguez).
(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to MIA 2 for 8 yards (3-C.Johnson; 8-J.Brents). MIA-8-J.Brents was injured during the play.
Timeout #1 by MIA at 01:00.
(1:00) (Shotgun) 69-J.Bayer reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
2-E.McPherson kicks 65 yards from CIN 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the MIA 20.
(:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short middle to 6-M.Washington to MIA 33 for 13 yards (27-J.Battle).
(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 6-M.Washington to MIA 41 for 8 yards (23-D.Hill).
Timeout #2 by MIA at 00:32.
(:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 21-K.Coleman pushed ob at MIA 45 for 4 yards (20-T.Davis).
(:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 40, and recovers at MIA 41.
Timeout #3 by MIA at 00:23.
(:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep middle to 21-K.Coleman.
(:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles left end ran ob at CIN 46 for 13 yards (6-B.Cook).
(:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 85-G.Dulcich to CIN 33 for 13 yards (49-B.Carter).
END QUARTER 2
2-E.McPherson kicks 60 yards from CIN 35 to MIA 5. 6-M.Washington to MIA 29 for 24 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).
(14:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 6-M.Washington to MIA 29 for no gain (49-B.Carter).
(14:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 19 for -10 yards (53-B.Mafe).
(13:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich to MIA 29 for 10 yards (44-D.Knight). Penalty on MIA, Illegal Shift, declined.
(13:14) 48-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-T.Addington. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 5 yards (42-J.Woodard; 32-J.Simpson).
(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 89-D.Sample to CIN 22 for 5 yards (20-J.Brooks). ** Injury Update: MIA-20-J.Brooks has returned to the game.
(12:21) 30-C.Brown left tackle to CIN 28 for 6 yards (9-J.Uche). ** Injury Update: MIA-8-J.Brents has returned to the game.
(11:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine to CIN 32 for 4 yards (16-M.Taaffe; 40-W.Gay). MIA-16-M.Taaffe was injured during the play.
(11:04) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki.
(10:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Chase.
(10:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 66 yards to MIA 2, Center-46-W.Wagner. 6-M.Washington to MIA 30 for 28 yards (47-S.Bozeman; 34-S.Perine).
(10:37) 0-O.Gordon right end to MIA 32 for 2 yards (94-S.Stewart; 55-C.Howell).
(9:59) 2-M.Willis scrambles left guard to MIA 43 for 11 yards (44-D.Knight; 49-B.Carter).
(9:23) 18-C.Bell right end pushed ob at CIN 31 for 26 yards (44-D.Knight).
(8:44) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to CIN 24 for 7 yards (44-D.Knight).
(8:00) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to CIN 14 for 10 yards (27-J.Battle).
(7:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Tolbert (0-D.Turner).
(7:11) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon right guard to CIN 1 for 13 yards (6-B.Cook).
(6:52) 77-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 0-O.Gordon left end to CIN 3 for -2 yards (44-D.Knight).
(6:11) 2-M.Willis sacked at CIN 11 for -8 yards (49-B.Carter).
(5:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Dulcich (38-D.Ivey).
(5:16) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to CIN 10. 81-D.Meyers MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 14. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 23 for 9 yards (32-J.Simpson; 45-S.Heyward).
(5:08) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 27 for 4 yards (93-Z.Biggers; 94-J.Phillips). ** Injury Update: MIA-16-M.Taaffe has returned to the game.
(4:24) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to CIN 31 for 4 yards (59-R.McGraw; 20-J.Brooks).
(3:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 35 for 4 yards (4-J.Marshall).
(2:56) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to CIN 39 for 4 yards (92-Z.Sieler; 44-C.Robinson).
(2:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to MIA 48 for 13 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 11-D.Trader).
(1:30) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard to MIA 45 for 3 yards (40-W.Gay; 8-J.Brents).
(:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
2-E.McPherson kicks 56 yards from CIN 35 to MIA 9. 6-M.Washington to MIA 37 for 28 yards (25-T.Brooks; 87-T.Hudson). PENALTY on MIA-45-S.Heyward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30.
(:32) 0-O.Gordon left guard to MIA 22 for 2 yards (98-T.Slaton).
END QUARTER 3
(15:00) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to MIA 22 for no gain (92-B.Hill; 6-B.Cook). MIA-0-O.Gordon was injured during the play.
(14:28) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIA-18-C.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 22 - No Play.
(14:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles left tackle to CIN 44 for 39 yards (6-B.Cook).
(13:43) 5-J.Wright right guard to CIN 42 for 2 yards (44-D.Knight; 49-B.Carter).
(12:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 85-G.Dulcich to CIN 35 for 7 yards (93-J.Allen).
(12:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left tackle to CIN 32 for 3 yards (6-B.Cook; 27-J.Battle).
(11:43) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 89-W.Kacmarek to CIN 27 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).
(11:02) 5-J.Wright left end to CIN 28 for -1 yards (97-D.Lawrence, 49-B.Carter).
(10:22) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 6-M.Washington to CIN 19 for 9 yards. ** Injury Update: MIA-0-O.Gordon has returned to the game.
(9:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 6-M.Washington to CIN 11 for 8 yards (42-O.Burks) [98-T.Slaton].
(9:07) 0-O.Gordon left guard to CIN 6 for 5 yards (93-J.Allen; 49-B.Carter).
(8:32) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to CIN 3 for 3 yards (49-B.Carter; 92-B.Hill).
(7:56) 0-O.Gordon left tackle to CIN 3 for no gain (49-B.Carter).
(7:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 21-K.Coleman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Willis pass to 85-G.Dulcich is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Penalty on CIN-0-D.Turner, Defensive Holding, declined.
47-R.Patterson kicks 62 yards from MIA 35 to CIN 3. 81-D.Meyers ran ob at CIN 4 for 1 yard.
(7:12) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to CIN 5 for 1 yard (44-C.Robinson).
(6:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 13 for 8 yards (8-J.Brents; 20-J.Brooks). MIA-8-J.Brents was injured during the play.
(6:01) (Shotgun) 69-J.Bayer reported in as eligible. 34-S.Perine up the middle to CIN 16 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 40-W.Gay).
(5:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 30-C.Brown [92-Z.Sieler].
(5:12) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine left guard to CIN 22 for 6 yards (10-J.Rodriguez).
(4:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 15 for -7 yards (44-C.Robinson). PENALTY on MIA-44-C.Robinson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 22 - No Play.
(4:24) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to CIN 38 for 11 yards (11-D.Trader).
(3:38) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to CIN 41 for 3 yards (59-R.McGraw; 20-J.Brooks).
(2:52) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right guard to CIN 41 for no gain (40-W.Gay).
Timeout #1 by MIA at 02:47.
(2:47) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 41 - No Play.
(2:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Chase (32-J.Simpson) [44-C.Robinson].
(2:45) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
(2:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 6-M.Washington [53-B.Mafe].
(2:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 5 for -4 yards (93-J.Allen). FUMBLES (93-J.Allen), touched at MIA 4, RECOVERED by CIN-93-J.Allen at MIA 10.
(2:28) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to MIA 9 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez).
Timeout #2 by MIA at 02:24.
(2:24) 30-C.Brown up the middle to MIA 8 for 1 yard (20-J.Brooks; 94-J.Phillips).
Timeout #3 by MIA at 02:19.
Timeout #1 by CIN at 02:19.
(2:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right [94-J.Phillips].
(2:13) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
2-E.McPherson kicks 54 yards from CIN 35 to MIA 11. 21-K.Coleman to MIA 39 for 28 yards (22-R.Yeast).
(2:04) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left guard to CIN 46 for 15 yards (27-J.Battle).
(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 6-M.Washington to CIN 41 for 5 yards (38-D.Ivey).
(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (38-D.Ivey).
(1:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 85-G.Dulcich ran ob at CIN 34 for 7 yards.
(1:22) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles left tackle to CIN 24 for 10 yards (23-D.Hill).
(1:06) (No Huddle) 2-M.Willis spiked the ball to stop the clock.
(1:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 21-K.Coleman to CIN 1 for 23 yards (23-D.Hill).
(:48) (No Huddle) 2-M.Willis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
47-R.Patterson extra point is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
Timeout #2 by CIN at 00:45.
47-R.Patterson kicks onside 15 yards from MIA 35 to 50, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-47-R.Patterson, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at 50.
(:45) 9-J.Burrow kneels to CIN 49 for -1 yards.
(:33) 9-J.Burrow kneels to CIN 48 for -1 yards.
END GAME
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.63 points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.07 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.04 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.58 points Supported
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.06 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.03 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.16 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
-0.92 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.16 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.16 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.16 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
-0.4 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.4 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.92 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:24 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 1bfa77d0a8e65a74d9d0b4c1c4bf00caf5398740931600b1fe1da3db29ab5c53Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 10:51 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 b3d3dd4df34b880a758a693fbd43e52becd442be41701b7902d15dd097bbcacaTraining window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 62de68ade6ea3d3d60a36e828192807e720738e5567bb64462979a73f4099589
Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled