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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: NYJ by 6.2; actual result: NYJ by 5.
The 1.2-point difference was matched or exceeded in 721 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 NYJ minus CLE penalty-yard difference: 72 versus 1.6 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 87 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 33.85%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: NYJ by 2.5; actual result: NYJ by 5. The difference was 2.5 points.
6,108 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin New York Jets by 2.5
Final margin New York Jets by 5
Difference 2.5 points
New York Jets covered the spread.
6,108 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (83.9%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score NYJ by 6.2
Actual final margin NYJ by 5
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
New York Jets chance to win during the game 162 preplay estimates across 184 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 22 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
NYJ Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 2 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 09:18 Recorded game event
Cleveland Browns · Play 3619 (9:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 21 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NYJ awarded CLE a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.3 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:57 Recorded game event
Cleveland Browns · Play 4516 (:57) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 24 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.0 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 184 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 184 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 19-J.Sanders kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to CLE 0. 11-M.Corley to CLE 34 for 34 yards (8-A.Cisco; 9-W.McDonald). Play 41 19-J.Sanders kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to CLE 0. 11-M.Corley to CLE 34 for 34 yards (8-A.Cisco; 9-W.McDonald).
Q114:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right end to CLE 30 for -4 yards (52-K.Enagbare). Play 64 (14:54) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right end to CLE 30 for -4 yards (52-K.Enagbare).
Q114:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 32 for 2 yards (2-J.Brownlee). Play 86 (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 32 for 2 yards (2-J.Brownlee).
Q113:36 (13:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 33 for 1 yard (31-D.Bailey). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 45 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q409:18 Penalty · CLE (9:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ -9.01 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 10
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 554
Half seconds remaining 554
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 8:58 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 63cd0cd9a743a83234ae2457d62f9759a193e75b214f32bf4b9272390f8cfda4This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
721 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 87 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Bill Vinovich Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 87.7 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.2 / 43.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 44.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Bill Vinovich; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape New York Jets · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New York Jets · Opponent penalties Opponent CLE was charged 6 penalties for 30 yards.
Cleveland Browns · Sacks allowed Allowed 8 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Cleveland Browns · Opponent penalties Opponent NYJ was charged 10 penalties for 102 yards.
Explore the historical comparisons (1) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
New York Jets Historical context
Winning-profile context NYJ won. Prior matching team-games: 336 wins, 435 losses, 3 ties among 774 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards 336 / 774 prior matching team-games were wins
435 losses · 3 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 162 model estimates across 184 recorded game entries.
22 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (184 entries) 0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence -1.7 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Ruling expected points consequence -0.54 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence -3.72 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Ruling expected points consequence -0.9 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence -2.68 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Ruling expected points consequence -0.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence 0.98 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Ruling expected points consequence 0.37 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Observed ruling consequence -9.01 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYJ Ruling expected points consequence -2.91 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36611/ NA/0.40180 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0.84 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28663/0.27826/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58723/ NA/0.65655 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28607/ NA/0.29815 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.31257/0.33973/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53888/ NA/0.57585 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33014/ NA/0.38345 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56205/0.52809/0.59540 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32407/ NA/0.35483 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 1.22 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60823/0.53423/0.59607 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32568/ NA/0.33914 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 2.16 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35933/ NA/0.33771 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59239/0.60321/0.58033 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 1.96 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.75143/ NA/0.73178 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07692/ NA/0.08549 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYJ Fourth down decision cost 1.17 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81015/ NA/0.79849 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03590/ NA/0.00311 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
NYJ Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.02 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
6 of 6 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
CLE Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.02 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
6 of 6 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
NYJ Field goal points above expectation 0.91 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 34th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
CLE Field goal points above expectation 0.38 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 5th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NYJ Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
CLE Extra point points above expectation -0.96 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 95th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
NYJ Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 184 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
CLE Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 184 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
CLE Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.63 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.3 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.49 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYJ Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYJ Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.81 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
71 of 71 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 71 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYJ Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYJ Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 111
(13:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 33 for 1 yard (31-D.Bailey).
Q112:58 (12:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. Play 136 (12:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
Q112:49 (12:49) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 33 for 13 yards (7-T.Campbell). PENALTY on NYJ-17-T.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 22. Play 154 (12:49) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 33 for 13 yards (7-T.Campbell). PENALTY on NYJ-17-T.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 22.
Q112:38 (12:38) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 29 for 17 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 187 (12:38) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 29 for 17 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q112:10 (12:10) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 32 for 3 yards (8-J.Verse). Play 212 (12:10) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 32 for 3 yards (8-J.Verse).
Q111:28 (11:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson to CLE 47 for 21 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 234 (11:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson to CLE 47 for 21 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q110:49 (10:49) 0-B.Allen left tackle to CLE 42 for 5 yards (7-T.Campbell; 98-A.Huntington). Play 259 (10:49) 0-B.Allen left tackle to CLE 42 for 5 yards (7-T.Campbell; 98-A.Huntington).
Q110:11 (10:11) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 32 for 10 yards (26-M.Harden; 5-Q.Williams). Play 281 (10:11) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 32 for 10 yards (26-M.Harden; 5-Q.Williams).
Q109:29 (9:29) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 5-G.Wilson. Play 303 (9:29) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 5-G.Wilson.
Q109:25 (9:25) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 326 (9:25) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q109:17 19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. Play 352 19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q109:17 19-J.Sanders kicks 59 yards from NYJ 35 to CLE 6. 11-M.Corley to CLE 26 for 20 yards (49-T.Wallace; 32-I.Davis). Play 367 19-J.Sanders kicks 59 yards from NYJ 35 to CLE 6. 11-M.Corley to CLE 26 for 20 yards (49-T.Wallace; 32-I.Davis).
Q109:12 (9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson to CLE 20 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CLE 20. 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 20 for -6 yards (31-D.Bailey). Play 397 (9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson to CLE 20 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CLE 20. 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 20 for -6 yards (31-D.Bailey).
Q108:32 (8:32) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard pushed ob at CLE 34 for 14 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 424 (8:32) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard pushed ob at CLE 34 for 14 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q108:10 (8:10) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 37 for 3 yards (6-D.Belton; 56-D.Davis). CLE-71-T.Howard was injured during the play. Play 451 (8:10) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 37 for 3 yards (6-D.Belton; 56-D.Davis). CLE-71-T.Howard was injured during the play.
Q107:39 (7:39) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders right guard to CLE 41 for 4 yards (31-D.Bailey). Play 491 (7:39) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders right guard to CLE 41 for 4 yards (31-D.Bailey).
Q107:04 (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 46 for 5 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). PENALTY on NYJ-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 46. Play 520 (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 46 for 5 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). PENALTY on NYJ-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 46.
Q106:49 (6:49) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to NYJ 36 for 3 yards (91-J.Briggs). Play 556 (6:49) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to NYJ 36 for 3 yards (91-J.Briggs).
Q106:15 (6:15) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to NYJ 34 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood). Play 578 (6:15) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to NYJ 34 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q105:33 (5:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston to NYJ 25 for 9 yards (21-B.Stephens). Play 600 (5:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 12-D.Boston to NYJ 25 for 9 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q104:59 (4:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 1-K.Concepcion (29-M.Fitzpatrick). CLE-1-K.Concepcion was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYJ-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at NYJ 25 - No Play. Play 625 (4:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 1-K.Concepcion (29-M.Fitzpatrick). CLE-1-K.Concepcion was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYJ-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at NYJ 25 - No Play.
Q104:53 (4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end to NYJ 8 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). ** Injury Update: CLE-71-T.Howard has returned to the game. Play 674 (4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end to NYJ 8 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). ** Injury Update: CLE-71-T.Howard has returned to the game.
Q104:15 (4:15) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to NYJ 7 for 1 yard (44-J.Sherwood). Play 708 (4:15) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to NYJ 7 for 1 yard (44-J.Sherwood).
Q103:34 (3:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Boston (21-B.Stephens). Play 736 (3:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Boston (21-B.Stephens).
Q103:30 (3:30) 25-A.Szmyt 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 759 (3:30) 25-A.Szmyt 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q103:27 25-A.Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 9. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 35 for 26 yards (11-M.Corley; 28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 784 25-A.Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 9. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 35 for 26 yards (11-M.Corley; 28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q103:22 (3:22) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-K.Sadiq to NYJ 34 for -1 yards (9-G.Delpit, 96-M.Collins). Play 814 (3:22) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-K.Sadiq to NYJ 34 for -1 yards (9-G.Delpit, 96-M.Collins).
Q102:46 (2:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Patrick. Play 839 (2:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Patrick.
Q102:41 (2:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 24 for -10 yards (sack split by 98-A.Huntington and 96-M.Collins). Play 862 (2:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 24 for -10 yards (sack split by 98-A.Huntington and 96-M.Collins).
Q101:59 (1:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to CLE 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Boston pushed ob at CLE 35 for 13 yards (27-M.Moore). Play 882 (1:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to CLE 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Boston pushed ob at CLE 35 for 13 yards (27-M.Moore).
Q101:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 38-J.McLaughlin. Play 913 (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 38-J.McLaughlin.
Q101:43 (1:43) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 38 for 3 yards (1-A.Thomas; 56-D.Davis). Play 943 (1:43) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 38 for 3 yards (1-A.Thomas; 56-D.Davis).
Q101:06 (1:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 44-H.Fannin. Play 965 (1:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 44-H.Fannin.
Q101:02 (1:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to NYJ 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 18-I.Williams. Play 988 (1:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to NYJ 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
Q100:56 (:56) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 17 for 8 yards (92-S.Kamara; 7-T.Campbell). Play 1008 (:56) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 17 for 8 yards (92-S.Kamara; 7-T.Campbell).
Q100:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right tackle to NYJ 34 for 17 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 1042 (:24) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right tackle to NYJ 34 for 17 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1064 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 34 - No Play. Play 1084 (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 34 - No Play.
Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 21 for -8 yards (96-M.Collins). Play 1117 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 21 for -8 yards (96-M.Collins).
Q214:16 (14:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right. Play 1137 (14:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right.
Q214:13 (14:13) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 85-M.Taylor to NYJ 29 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden) [8-J.Verse]. Play 1160 (14:13) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 85-M.Taylor to NYJ 29 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden) [8-J.Verse].
Q213:32 (13:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 40 yards to CLE 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-84-M.McClain, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31. Play 1185 (13:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 40 yards to CLE 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-84-M.McClain, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.
Q213:24 (13:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 0-I.Bond. Play 1216 (13:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 0-I.Bond.
Q213:20 (13:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to NYJ 42 for 12 yards (21-B.Stephens). Play 1246 (13:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to NYJ 42 for 12 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q213:02 (13:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at NYJ 48 for -6 yards (91-J.Briggs). Play 1271 (13:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at NYJ 48 for -6 yards (91-J.Briggs).
Q212:21 (12:21) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end pushed ob at NYJ 43 for 5 yards (21-B.Stephens). Play 1291 (12:21) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end pushed ob at NYJ 43 for 5 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q211:45 (11:45) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 0-I.Bond pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 20 yards (6-D.Belton). Play 1320 (11:45) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 0-I.Bond pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 20 yards (6-D.Belton).
Q211:06 (11:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end to NYJ 23 for no gain (96-J.Heflin). Play 1345 (11:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end to NYJ 23 for no gain (96-J.Heflin).
Q210:28 (10:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 0-I.Bond. NYJ-46-J.Ossai was injured during the play. Play 1368 (10:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 0-I.Bond. NYJ-46-J.Ossai was injured during the play.
Q210:22 (10:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 44-H.Fannin. Play 1391 (10:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 44-H.Fannin.
Q210:19 (10:19) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 1422 (10:19) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q210:14 25-A.Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 9. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 30 for 21 yards (17-J.Jefferson). Play 1442 25-A.Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 9. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 30 for 21 yards (17-J.Jefferson).
Q210:09 (10:09) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 21 for -9 yards (92-S.Kamara). Play 1477 (10:09) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 21 for -9 yards (92-S.Kamara).
Q209:30 (9:30) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 32-I.Davis to NYJ 30 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 1497 (9:30) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 32-I.Davis to NYJ 30 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q208:47 (8:47) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 32-I.Davis [96-M.Collins]. Play 1522 (8:47) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 32-I.Davis [96-M.Collins].
Q208:40 (8:40) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to CLE 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. Play 1545 (8:40) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to CLE 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q208:32 (8:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 40 for 3 yards (9-W.McDonald; 31-D.Bailey). Play 1564 (8:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-Q.Judkins to CLE 40 for 3 yards (9-W.McDonald; 31-D.Bailey).
Q207:49 (7:49) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 40 for no gain (97-H.Phillips). Play 1596 (7:49) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 40 for no gain (97-H.Phillips).
Q207:09 (7:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 33 for -7 yards (31-D.Bailey). Play 1618 (7:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 33 for -7 yards (31-D.Bailey).
Q206:24 (6:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon. Play 1638 (6:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon.
Q206:13 (6:13) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 29 for -2 yards (54-S.Williams). Play 1658 (6:13) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 29 for -2 yards (54-S.Williams).
Q205:34 (5:34) 0-B.Allen left end to NYJ 40 for 11 yards (5-Q.Williams). Play 1687 (5:34) 0-B.Allen left end to NYJ 40 for 11 yards (5-Q.Williams).
Q204:59 (4:59) 7-G.Smith up the middle to NYJ 42 for 2 yards (54-S.Williams). Play 1709 (4:59) 7-G.Smith up the middle to NYJ 42 for 2 yards (54-S.Williams).
Q204:27 (4:27) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right guard to 50 for 8 yards (21-D.Ward; 9-G.Delpit). Play 1731 (4:27) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right guard to 50 for 8 yards (21-D.Ward; 9-G.Delpit).
Q203:52 (3:52) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right tackle to 50 for no gain (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-7-G.Smith at 50. Play 1753 (3:52) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right tackle to 50 for no gain (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-7-G.Smith at 50.
Q203:20 (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-70-A.Membou, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. Play 1787 (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-70-A.Membou, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q203:07 (3:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 85-M.Taylor to CLE 46 for 9 yards (9-G.Delpit). Play 1818 (3:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 85-M.Taylor to CLE 46 for 9 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q202:42 (2:42) (No Huddle) 32-I.Davis left guard to CLE 45 for 1 yard (57-I.McGuire). PENALTY on CLE, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 46 - No Play. Play 1853 (2:42) (No Huddle) 32-I.Davis left guard to CLE 45 for 1 yard (57-I.McGuire). PENALTY on CLE, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 46 - No Play.
Q202:07 (2:07) 0-B.Allen right tackle to CLE 40 for 1 yard (49-C.Schwesinger; 92-S.Kamara). PENALTY on NYJ-67-J.Meredith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 41 - No Play. Play 1891 (2:07) 0-B.Allen right tackle to CLE 40 for 1 yard (49-C.Schwesinger; 92-S.Kamara). PENALTY on NYJ-67-J.Meredith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 41 - No Play.
Q202:00 (2:00) 18-I.Williams right end to CLE 48 for 3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 5-Q.Williams). Play 1924 (2:00) 18-I.Williams right end to CLE 48 for 3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 5-Q.Williams).
Q201:40 (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen. Play 1954 (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen.
Q201:36 (1:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 5-G.Wilson (9-G.Delpit). Play 1977 (1:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 5-G.Wilson (9-G.Delpit).
Q201:30 (1:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CLE 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. Play 2000 (1:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CLE 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.
Q201:22 (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 17 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play. Play 2020 (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 17 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play.
Q201:16 (1:16) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders up the middle to CLE 11 for 5 yards (91-J.Briggs; 95-D.Jackson). Play 2056 (1:16) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders up the middle to CLE 11 for 5 yards (91-J.Briggs; 95-D.Jackson).
Q201:10 Timeout #1 by NYJ at 01:10. Play 2090 Timeout #1 by NYJ at 01:10.
Q201:10 (1:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 0-I.Bond to CLE 35 for 24 yards (2-J.Brownlee). Play 2078 (1:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 0-I.Bond to CLE 35 for 24 yards (2-J.Brownlee).
Q200:50 (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 43 for 8 yards (6-D.Belton). Play 2110 (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 43 for 8 yards (6-D.Belton).
Q200:43 Timeout #1 by CLE at 00:43. Play 2147 Timeout #1 by CLE at 00:43.
Q200:43 (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 37 for -6 yards (6-D.Belton). Play 2135 (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 37 for -6 yards (6-D.Belton).
Q200:15 (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy. Play 2162 (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy.
Q200:10 (:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 30 for 18 yards (31-D.McMillon; 34-M.Burton). Play 2185 (:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 30 for 18 yards (31-D.McMillon; 34-M.Burton).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2211 Q315:00 25-A.Szmyt kicks 58 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 7. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 28 for 21 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 2231 25-A.Szmyt kicks 58 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 7. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 28 for 21 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q314:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 31 for 3 yards (7-T.Campbell; 8-J.Verse). Play 2254 (14:54) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 31 for 3 yards (7-T.Campbell; 8-J.Verse).
Q314:21 (14:21) 0-B.Allen right tackle to NYJ 36 for 5 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 2276 (14:21) 0-B.Allen right tackle to NYJ 36 for 5 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q313:48 (13:48) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson pushed ob at NYJ 46 for 10 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 2298 (13:48) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson pushed ob at NYJ 46 for 10 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q313:17 (13:17) 0-B.Allen right end to NYJ 40 for -6 yards (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-17-T.Patrick at NYJ 46. Play 2328 (13:17) 0-B.Allen right end to NYJ 40 for -6 yards (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-17-T.Patrick at NYJ 46.
Q312:37 (12:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 85-M.Taylor to CLE 47 for 7 yards (5-Q.Williams). Play 2366 (12:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 85-M.Taylor to CLE 47 for 7 yards (5-Q.Williams).
Q312:00 (12:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 16-K.Sadiq [8-J.Verse]. Play 2391 (12:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 16-K.Sadiq [8-J.Verse].
Q311:56 (11:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CLE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. Play 2414 (11:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CLE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
Q311:47 (11:47) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 8 for -1 yards (99-T.Sweat). Play 2434 (11:47) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 8 for -1 yards (99-T.Sweat).
Q311:06 (11:06) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders right end to CLE 11 for 3 yards (52-K.Enagbare; 6-D.Belton). Play 2463 (11:06) (Shotgun) 23-R.Sanders right end to CLE 11 for 3 yards (52-K.Enagbare; 6-D.Belton).
Q310:25 (10:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 0-I.Bond. ** Injury Update: NYJ-46-J.Ossai has returned to the game. Play 2485 (10:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 0-I.Bond. ** Injury Update: NYJ-46-J.Ossai has returned to the game.
Q310:22 (10:22) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to NYJ 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CLE 47 for 20 yards (24-D.Thomas; 98-A.Huntington). Play 2508 (10:22) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to NYJ 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CLE 47 for 20 yards (24-D.Thomas; 98-A.Huntington).
Q310:11 (10:11) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen [57-I.McGuire]. Play 2534 (10:11) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen [57-I.McGuire].
Q310:05 (10:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen. PENALTY on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play. Play 2567 (10:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen. PENALTY on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play.
Q309:58 (9:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 18-I.Williams to CLE 41 for 16 yards (26-M.Harden; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 2601 (9:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 18-I.Williams to CLE 41 for 16 yards (26-M.Harden; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q309:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles right end ran ob at CLE 36 for 5 yards (26-M.Harden). Play 2626 (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles right end ran ob at CLE 36 for 5 yards (26-M.Harden).
Q308:34 (8:34) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 38 for -2 yards (54-S.Williams). Play 2653 (8:34) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 38 for -2 yards (54-S.Williams).
Q307:51 (7:51) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to CLE 29 for 9 yards (54-S.Williams). Play 2675 (7:51) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to CLE 29 for 9 yards (54-S.Williams).
Q307:17 (7:17) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right end pushed ob at CLE 11 for 18 yards (33-R.Hickman). Play 2700 (7:17) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right end pushed ob at CLE 11 for 18 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Q306:37 (6:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson. Play 2727 (6:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson.
Q306:33 (6:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 0-B.Allen to CLE 11 for no gain (5-Q.Williams). Play 2750 (6:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 0-B.Allen to CLE 11 for no gain (5-Q.Williams).
Q305:57 (5:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-K.Sadiq to CLE 5 for 6 yards (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by CLE-33-R.Hickman at CLE 7. Play 2775 (5:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-K.Sadiq to CLE 5 for 6 yards (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by CLE-33-R.Hickman at CLE 7.
Q305:49 (5:49) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 11 for 4 yards (95-D.Jackson). Play 2817 (5:49) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 11 for 4 yards (95-D.Jackson).
Q305:09 (5:09) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 15 for 4 yards (99-T.Sweat). Play 2846 (5:09) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 15 for 4 yards (99-T.Sweat).
Q304:32 (4:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 9, recovered by CLE-23-R.Sanders at CLE 11. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 15 for 4 yards (95-D.Jackson; 6-D.Belton). Play 2868 (4:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 9, recovered by CLE-23-R.Sanders at CLE 11. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 15 for 4 yards (95-D.Jackson; 6-D.Belton).
Q303:49 (3:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 37 for 13 yards (11-M.Corley). Play 2895 (3:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 37 for 13 yards (11-M.Corley).
Q303:38 (3:38) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right tackle to NYJ 36 for -1 yards (5-Q.Williams, 92-S.Kamara). Play 2921 (3:38) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right tackle to NYJ 36 for -1 yards (5-Q.Williams, 92-S.Kamara).
Q303:05 (3:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 17-T.Patrick to 50 for 14 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 2950 (3:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 17-T.Patrick to 50 for 14 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q302:27 (2:27) PENALTY on NYJ-67-J.Meredith, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. Play 2975 (2:27) PENALTY on NYJ-67-J.Meredith, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q302:21 (2:21) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 17-T.Patrick to CLE 43 for 12 yards (21-D.Ward). Play 2999 (2:21) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 17-T.Patrick to CLE 43 for 12 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q301:46 (1:46) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 41 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward; 33-R.Hickman). Play 3024 (1:46) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 41 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward; 33-R.Hickman).
Q301:02 (1:02) 7-G.Smith up the middle to CLE 39 for 2 yards (98-A.Huntington). Play 3046 (1:02) 7-G.Smith up the middle to CLE 39 for 2 yards (98-A.Huntington).
Q300:17 (:17) 0-B.Allen up the middle to CLE 41 for -2 yards (96-M.Collins, 5-Q.Williams). Play 3068 (:17) 0-B.Allen up the middle to CLE 41 for -2 yards (96-M.Collins, 5-Q.Williams).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3090 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen. Play 3110 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen.
Q414:57 (14:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 28-E.McNeil-Warren at CLE 4. 28-E.McNeil-Warren to CLE 13 for 9 yards (85-M.Taylor). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 41 - No Play. Play 3133 (14:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 28-E.McNeil-Warren at CLE 4. 28-E.McNeil-Warren to CLE 13 for 9 yards (85-M.Taylor). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 41 - No Play.
Q414:47 (14:47) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.Williams. Play 3171 (14:47) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.Williams.
Q414:42 (14:42) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. Play 3194 (14:42) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q414:37 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CLE 5. 11-M.Corley to CLE 25 for 20 yards (9-W.McDonald; 6-D.Belton). Play 3214 19-J.Sanders kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to CLE 5. 11-M.Corley to CLE 25 for 20 yards (9-W.McDonald; 6-D.Belton).
Q414:31 (14:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 10-Q.Judkins. Play 3244 (14:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 10-Q.Judkins.
Q414:26 (14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 0-I.Bond ran ob at NYJ 45 for 30 yards (2-J.Brownlee) [52-K.Enagbare]. Play 3267 (14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 0-I.Bond ran ob at NYJ 45 for 30 yards (2-J.Brownlee) [52-K.Enagbare].
Q413:49 (13:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CLE-79-D.Jones, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play. Play 3303 (13:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CLE-79-D.Jones, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play.
Q413:41 (13:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 40 for -10 yards (2-J.Brownlee). Play 3338 (13:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 40 for -10 yards (2-J.Brownlee).
Q413:07 (13:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 40 - No Play. Play 3368 (13:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 40 - No Play.
Q413:07 (13:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Jeudy (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 3392 (13:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Jeudy (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q413:01 (13:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 27 for -8 yards (31-D.Bailey). Play 3415 (13:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 27 for -8 yards (31-D.Bailey).
Q412:18 (12:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to NYJ 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 16 yards (59-W.Reid). Play 3435 (12:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to NYJ 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 16 yards (59-W.Reid).
Q412:08 (12:08) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 38 for 7 yards (26-M.Harden; 98-A.Huntington). Play 3466 (12:08) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 38 for 7 yards (26-M.Harden; 98-A.Huntington).
Q411:31 (11:31) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 40 for 2 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 98-A.Huntington). Play 3488 (11:31) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 40 for 2 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 98-A.Huntington).
Q410:50 (10:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (5-Q.Williams). Play 3510 (10:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (5-Q.Williams).
Q410:45 (10:45) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. Play 3538 (10:45) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.
Q410:38 (10:38) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 21 for 7 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 3558 (10:38) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 21 for 7 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q409:58 (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 21 for no gain (31-D.Bailey; 6-D.Belton). Play 3597 (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left guard to CLE 21 for no gain (31-D.Bailey; 6-D.Belton).
Q409:18 (9:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 21 - No Play. Play 3619 (9:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 21 - No Play.
Q409:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at CLE 43 for 8 yards. Play 3653 (9:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston ran ob at CLE 43 for 8 yards.
Q408:40 (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to NYJ 48 for 9 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 29-M.Fitzpatrick). Play 3683 (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to NYJ 48 for 9 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q407:59 (7:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to NYJ 49 for -1 yards (2-J.Brownlee). Play 3705 (7:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to NYJ 49 for -1 yards (2-J.Brownlee).
Q407:13 (7:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 29 for 20 yards (56-D.Davis). Play 3730 (7:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 29 for 20 yards (56-D.Davis).
Q406:30 (6:30) (Shotgun) 74-E.Jenkins to NYJ 34 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by CLE-4-D.Watson at NYJ 34. 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (95-D.Jackson). Play 3757 (6:30) (Shotgun) 74-E.Jenkins to NYJ 34 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by CLE-4-D.Watson at NYJ 34. 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (95-D.Jackson).
Q406:26 (6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 44-H.Fannin (95-D.Jackson). Play 3780 (6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 44-H.Fannin (95-D.Jackson).
Q406:21 Timeout #1 by CLE at 06:21. Play 3815 Timeout #1 by CLE at 06:21.
Q406:21 (6:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3803 (6:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q406:15 25-A.Szmyt extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 3836 25-A.Szmyt extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q406:15 25-A.Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 9. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 45 for 36 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold). Play 3851 25-A.Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 9. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 45 for 36 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).
Q406:08 (6:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to 50 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 3874 (6:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to 50 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q405:35 (5:35) 0-B.Allen right tackle to CLE 49 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward; 9-G.Delpit). Play 3899 (5:35) 0-B.Allen right tackle to CLE 49 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward; 9-G.Delpit).
Q404:57 (4:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to CLE 39 for 10 yards (7-T.Campbell). Play 3921 (4:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to CLE 39 for 10 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q404:20 (4:20) 7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger) [49-C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-98-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. 98-A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (66-J.Tippmann; 70-A.Membou). Play 3973 (4:20) 7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger) [49-C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-98-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. 98-A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (66-J.Tippmann; 70-A.Membou).
Q404:13 (4:13) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right end pushed ob at NYJ 43 for no gain (1-A.Thomas). Play 4003 (4:13) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right end pushed ob at NYJ 43 for no gain (1-A.Thomas).
Q404:08 (4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy [44-J.Sherwood]. Play 4030 (4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy [44-J.Sherwood].
Q404:04 (4:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston (44-J.Sherwood). Play 4053 (4:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston (44-J.Sherwood).
Q404:01 (4:01) (Punt formation) 13-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-T.Wallace at CLE 23. Play 4076 (4:01) (Punt formation) 13-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-T.Wallace at CLE 23.
Q403:52 (3:52) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 22 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit). Play 4119 (3:52) 0-B.Allen right guard to CLE 22 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit).
Q403:10 (3:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Woods (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 4141 (3:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Woods (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q403:07 (3:07) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4164 (3:07) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:01 19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. Play 4187 19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q403:01 19-J.Sanders kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CLE 35. Play 4202 19-J.Sanders kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CLE 35.
Q403:01 (3:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 46 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood). Play 4219 (3:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 46 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q402:55 (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 37 for -9 yards (95-D.Jackson). Play 4246 (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 37 for -9 yards (95-D.Jackson).
Q402:25 (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 0-I.Bond. Play 4266 (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 0-I.Bond.
Q402:21 (2:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Boston (1-A.Thomas) [9-W.McDonald]. Play 4289 (2:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Boston (1-A.Thomas) [9-W.McDonald].
Q402:13 (2:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. Play 4312 (2:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
Q402:06 (2:06) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 26 for 2 yards (57-I.McGuire). Play 4331 (2:06) 0-B.Allen left guard to NYJ 26 for 2 yards (57-I.McGuire).
Q402:00 (2:00) 0-B.Allen right tackle to NYJ 28 for 2 yards (57-I.McGuire). Play 4353 (2:00) 0-B.Allen right tackle to NYJ 28 for 2 yards (57-I.McGuire).
Q401:54 Timeout #2 by CLE at 01:54. Play 4394 Timeout #2 by CLE at 01:54.
Q401:54 Timeout #1 by NYJ at 01:54. Play 4401 Timeout #1 by NYJ at 01:54.
Q401:54 (1:54) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 30 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse; 5-Q.Williams). Play 4382 (1:54) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 30 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse; 5-Q.Williams).
Q401:48 Timeout #3 by CLE at 01:48. Play 4430 Timeout #3 by CLE at 01:48.
Q401:48 (1:48) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to CLE 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. Play 4418 (1:48) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to CLE 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.
Q401:41 (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 24 for 4 yards (2-J.Brownlee; 56-D.Davis). Play 4445 (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 24 for 4 yards (2-J.Brownlee; 56-D.Davis).
Q401:12 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston (1-A.Thomas) [56-D.Davis]. Play 4470 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston (1-A.Thomas) [56-D.Davis].
Q401:07 (1:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right [31-D.Bailey]. Play 4493 (1:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right [31-D.Bailey].
Q400:57 (:57) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 24 - No Play. Play 4516 (:57) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 24 - No Play.
Q400:57 (:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 19 for 0 yards (9-W.McDonald). FUMBLES (9-W.McDonald), and recovers at CLE 19. 4-D.Watson to CLE 18 for -1 yards (31-D.Bailey). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at CLE 17. Play 4540 (:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 19 for 0 yards (9-W.McDonald). FUMBLES (9-W.McDonald), and recovers at CLE 19. 4-D.Watson to CLE 18 for -1 yards (31-D.Bailey). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at CLE 17.
Q400:44 (:44) 7-G.Smith kneels to CLE 18 for -1 yards. Play 4579 (:44) 7-G.Smith kneels to CLE 18 for -1 yards.
Q400:24 (:24) 7-G.Smith kneels to CLE 19 for -1 yards. Play 4601 (:24) 7-G.Smith kneels to CLE 19 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 554
Half seconds remaining 554
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYJ -2.91 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 10
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 554
Half seconds remaining 554
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 3
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 79
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 554
Half seconds remaining 554
Quarter seconds remaining 554
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:20 Penalty · NYJ (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-70-A.Membou, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ -3.72 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 7
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 2000
Half seconds remaining 200
Quarter seconds remaining 200
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 2
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 2000
Half seconds remaining 200
Quarter seconds remaining 200
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYJ -0.9 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 7
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 2000
Half seconds remaining 200
Quarter seconds remaining 200
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 2
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 2000
Half seconds remaining 200
Quarter seconds remaining 200
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q302:27 Penalty · NYJ (2:27) PENALTY on NYJ-67-J.Meredith, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ -2.68 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 15
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 1047
Half seconds remaining 1047
Quarter seconds remaining 147
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 1047
Half seconds remaining 1047
Quarter seconds remaining 147
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYJ -0.59 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 15
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 1047
Half seconds remaining 1047
Quarter seconds remaining 147
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 1047
Half seconds remaining 1047
Quarter seconds remaining 147
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q303:49 Fourth down · CLE (3:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 37 for 13 yards (11-M.Corley). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 2.16 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.1605315433925095
Yardline 100 85
Elapsed share 0.6863888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1129
Half seconds remaining 1129
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 229
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3593269421174534 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35933/ NA/0.33771 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:45 Fourth down · NYJ (10:45) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 1.96 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.09375759524569255
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.8208333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 645
Half seconds remaining 645
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 645
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.751429012573605 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.75143/ NA/0.73178 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Penalty · NYJ (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ -1.7 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 15
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYJ -0.54 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 15
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q311:56 Fourth down · NYJ (11:56) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CLE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 1.22 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.2757794815336054
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.5511111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1616
Half seconds remaining 1616
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 716
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6082253418642475 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60823/0.53423/0.59607 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:48 Fourth down · NYJ (1:48) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to CLE 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 1.17 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.05162706295428142
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.97
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 108
Half seconds remaining 108
Away timeouts remaining 0
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 108
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8101475355698567 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81015/ NA/0.79849 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:07 Penalty · CLE (13:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ 0.98 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 30
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 25
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYJ 0.37 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 30
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 25
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q112:58 Fourth down · CLE (12:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 2.183076621917639
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.03388888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3478
Half seconds remaining 1678
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 778
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4017955592954138 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36611/ NA/0.40180 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:59 Fourth down · NYJ (1:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to CLE 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Boston pushed ob at CLE 35 for 13 yards (27-M.Moore). + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 21
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 1.049708969763413
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.2169444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2819
Half seconds remaining 1019
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 119
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6565532345849595 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58723/ NA/0.65655 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:02 Fourth down · CLE (1:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to NYJ 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 18-I.Williams. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.9852889020539273
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.2327777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2762
Half seconds remaining 962
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 62
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2981513361313791 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28607/ NA/0.29815 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 33 recorded events Q210:19 Kick · CLE (10:19) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.6730528049713125
Yardline 100 23
Elapsed share 0.3280555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2419
Half seconds remaining 619
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 619
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.3397281235350325 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.31257/0.33973/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE 0.38 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q208:40 Fourth down · NYJ (8:40) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to CLE 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.6029436775503785
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.3555555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q206:24 Fourth down · CLE (6:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.5183821323480976
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.3933333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q201:30 Fourth down · NYJ (1:30) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CLE 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.3739215480565877
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.475
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q200:10 Fourth down · CLE (:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 30 for 18 yards (31-D.McMillon; 34-M.Burton). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.342118484156818
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.4972222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1 Q310:22 Fourth down · CLE (10:22) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to NYJ 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to CLE 47 for 20 yards (24-D.Thomas; 98-A.Huntington). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.2484290078355842
Yardline 100 89
Elapsed share 0.5772222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0 Q414:42 Kick · NYJ (14:42) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. + Fourth down decision cost NYJ 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYJ
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.1220030459050324
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.755
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam NYJ
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q402:13 Fourth down · CLE (2:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NYJ 24, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 19
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.0530812515971027
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.9630555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q400:57 Fumble · CLE (:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 19 for 0 yards (9-W.McDonald). FUMBLES (9-W.McDonald), and recovers at CLE 19. 4-D.Watson to CLE 18 for -1 yards (31-D.Bailey). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at CLE 17. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 0.04878287573414575
Yardline 100 81
Elapsed share 0.9841666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE Q112:49 Penalty · NYJ (12:49) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 33 for 13 yards (7-T.Campbell). PENALTY on NYJ-17-T.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 22. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:17 Kick · NYJ 19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. + Extra point points above expectation NYJ 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q109:12 Fumble · CLE (9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson to CLE 20 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CLE 20. 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 20 for -6 yards (31-D.Bailey). + Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ 0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE -0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q107:04 Penalty · CLE (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 46 for 5 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). PENALTY on NYJ-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 46. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:59 Penalty · CLE (4:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 1-K.Concepcion (29-M.Fitzpatrick). CLE-1-K.Concepcion was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYJ-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at NYJ 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:30 Kick · CLE (3:30) 25-A.Szmyt 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0.84 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team CLE
Home team NYJ
Away total 18
Home total 20.5
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 2.5
Spread time 1.161397550902279
Yardline 100 7
Elapsed share 0.1916666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q213:32 Penalty · NYJ (13:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 40 yards to CLE 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-84-M.McClain, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:52 Fumble · NYJ (3:52) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right tackle to 50 for no gain (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-7-G.Smith at 50. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ 0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE -0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q202:42 Penalty · NYJ (2:42) (No Huddle) 32-I.Davis left guard to CLE 45 for 1 yard (57-I.McGuire). PENALTY on CLE, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:07 Penalty · NYJ (2:07) 0-B.Allen right tackle to CLE 40 for 1 yard (49-C.Schwesinger; 92-S.Kamara). PENALTY on NYJ-67-J.Meredith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:22 Penalty · CLE (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 17 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:17 Fumble · NYJ (13:17) 0-B.Allen right end to NYJ 40 for -6 yards (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-17-T.Patrick at NYJ 46. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ 0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE -0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q310:05 Penalty · NYJ (10:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 0-B.Allen. PENALTY on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:57 Fumble · NYJ (5:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-K.Sadiq to CLE 5 for 6 yards (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by CLE-33-R.Hickman at CLE 7. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ 0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE -0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q304:32 Fumble · CLE (4:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 9, recovered by CLE-23-R.Sanders at CLE 11. 23-R.Sanders to CLE 15 for 4 yards (95-D.Jackson; 6-D.Belton). + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q414:57 Penalty · NYJ (14:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 28-E.McNeil-Warren at CLE 4. 28-E.McNeil-Warren to CLE 13 for 9 yards (85-M.Taylor). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYJ Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:49 Penalty · CLE (13:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CLE-79-D.Jones, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:18 Fourth down · CLE (12:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to NYJ 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 16 yards (59-W.Reid). + Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:30 Fumble · CLE (6:30) (Shotgun) 74-E.Jenkins to NYJ 34 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by CLE-4-D.Watson at NYJ 34. 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (95-D.Jackson). + Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ 0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE -0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q406:15 Kick · CLE 25-A.Szmyt extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Extra point points above expectation CLE -0.96 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:20 Fumble · NYJ (4:20) 7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger) [49-C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-98-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. 98-A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (66-J.Tippmann; 70-A.Membou). + Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ 0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE -0.02 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q404:01 Fumble · CLE (4:01) (Punt formation) 13-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-T.Wallace at CLE 23. + Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:01 Kick · NYJ 19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. + Extra point points above expectation NYJ 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q400:57 Penalty · CLE (:57) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-raw-pbp Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 8:58 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 67335588db7f24790f5c30951ffbf3a8859ff9f10fc8c55f1b4a3b42c1914c68
nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 160870855781141553c2160785280eddbd2d358b0f57ca161b36e9342a3d1e00Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 2115b5ba1ff3b1c370c02cd40ca16dad15088b301e932434c5f5030c6fd9d73b
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 2 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 11, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1
Game seconds remaining 2320
Half seconds remaining 520
Quarter seconds remaining 520
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5758502592714075 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53888/ NA/0.57585 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-1
Game seconds remaining 2184
Half seconds remaining 384
Quarter seconds remaining 384
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3834499223232709 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33014/ NA/0.38345 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1
Game seconds remaining 1890
Quarter seconds remaining 90
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5954016972801114 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56205/0.52809/0.59540 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 1810
Quarter seconds remaining 10
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.354834962640412 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32407/ NA/0.35483 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 1522
Half seconds remaining 1522
Quarter seconds remaining 622
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3391365138979995 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32568/ NA/0.33914 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
1
Game seconds remaining 882
Half seconds remaining 882
Quarter seconds remaining 882
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.6032134932948807 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59239/0.60321/0.58033 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYJ 0.91 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-5
Game seconds remaining 133
Half seconds remaining 133
Quarter seconds remaining 133
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.08549174835428616 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07692/ NA/0.08549 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Quarter seconds remaining 57
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.03589568791144607 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03590/ NA/0.00311 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 2910
Half seconds remaining 1110
Quarter seconds remaining 210
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2866277402861738 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28663/0.27826/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE 0.38 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled