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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: DEN by 6.7; actual result: DEN by 6.
The 0.7-point difference was matched or exceeded in 755 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 LAC minus DEN penalty-yard difference: 53 versus -1.6 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 212 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 81.92%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: DEN by 3.5; actual result: DEN by 6. The difference was 2.5 points.
6,108 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Denver Broncos by 3.5
Final margin Denver Broncos by 6
Difference 2.5 points
Denver Broncos covered the spread.
6,108 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (83.9%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score DEN by 6.7
Actual final margin DEN by 6
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Los Angeles Chargers chance to win during the game 149 preplay estimates across 177 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 28 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
LAC Observed ruling consequence 2.46 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence 0.56 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
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Notable plays 5 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 03:28 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 2762 (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at LAC 17. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to LAC 3 for 14 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 8 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on DEN awarded LAC a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 5.4 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 07:29 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 1412 (7:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LAC awarded DEN a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:29 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4003 (2:29) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 19 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 177 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 177 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to DEN 0. 37-S.Fresch to DEN 24 for 24 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). Play 39 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to DEN 0. 37-S.Fresch to DEN 24 for 24 yards (92-J.Eboigbe).
Q114:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to DEN 26 for 2 yards (93-T.Tart). Play 62 (14:54) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to DEN 26 for 2 yards (93-T.Tart).
Q114:18 (14:18) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 26 for no gain (53-D.Phillips; 45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 84 (14:18) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 26 for no gain (53-D.Phillips; 45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q113:34 (13:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 5-L.Humphrey to DEN 34 for 8 yards (4-T.Still). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 44 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q405:10 Kick · DEN (5:10) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 6.8 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.0904649689117886
Yardline 100 1 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 12, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 769ce66200330dcef66dc34caace2e1380ffb500c3ea0b3230e1d95775d14cf9This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
755 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 212 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Shawn Hochuli Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.9 accepted penalties for 110.2 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.5 / 54.4 yd per game. Away teams: 6.5 / 55.8 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Shawn Hochuli; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Los Angeles Chargers · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Los Angeles Chargers · Opponent penalties Opponent DEN was charged 7 penalties for 40 yards.
Denver Broncos · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Denver Broncos · Opponent penalties Opponent LAC was charged 9 penalties for 93 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 149 model estimates across 177 recorded game entries.
28 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (177 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence -4.24 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence -1.23 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence 2.72 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence 0.57 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Scoring turnover or replay requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence 2.52 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Ruling expected points consequence 0.63 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LAC Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
DEN Fourth down decision cost 2.5 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60737/0.55077/0.58239 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 3 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.23861/0.16584/0.20863 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70137/ NA/0.73123 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18189/ NA/0.20953 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74477/ NA/0.74618 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22126/0.22757/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74841/ NA/0.72180 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.75432/0.76348/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15809/ NA/0.17664 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56533/ NA/0.57450 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30771/ NA/0.33550 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 1.02 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25010/ NA/0.23991 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0.51 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28591/0.28077/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79029/ NA/0.76220 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 6.8 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74826/0.68023/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LAC Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20361/ NA/0.18955 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.89214/0.90414/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
LAC Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.38 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
DEN Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.38 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
LAC Field goal points above expectation 0.34 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DEN Field goal points above expectation -2.36 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LAC Extra point points above expectation 0.06 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 15th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
DEN Extra point points above expectation 0.06 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 15th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
LAC Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 177 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
DEN Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 177 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
DEN Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.75 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.23 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 30 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.57 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
30 of 30 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 30 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.34 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.87 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.62 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LAC Pass interference called penalties above expectation 1.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.5 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:41 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Chargers · Play 4208 (:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling. PENALTY on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 34 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on DEN awarded LAC a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.9 percentage points across this play.
Show 1 more play Q4 · 01:12 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4089 (1:12) (Run formation) PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 13 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.5 percentage points across this play.
Play 106
(13:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 5-L.Humphrey to DEN 34 for 8 yards (4-T.Still).
Q112:48 (12:48) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 34 - No Play. Play 131 (12:48) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 34 - No Play.
Q112:37 (12:37) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play. Play 155 (12:37) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play.
Q112:31 (12:31) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at DEN 43 for 9 yards (33-D.Leonard). Play 191 (12:31) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at DEN 43 for 9 yards (33-D.Leonard).
Q112:06 (12:06) 46-A.Prentice up the middle to DEN 46 for 3 yards (23-T.Jefferson). Play 221 (12:06) 46-A.Prentice up the middle to DEN 46 for 3 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q111:28 (11:28) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Play 243 (11:28) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
Q111:18 (11:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins pushed ob at DEN 49 for 3 yards (48-B.Dupree). Play 268 (11:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins pushed ob at DEN 49 for 3 yards (48-B.Dupree).
Q110:44 (10:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin to LAC 47 for 4 yards (4-T.Still; 22-G.Smith). Play 293 (10:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin to LAC 47 for 4 yards (4-T.Still; 22-G.Smith).
Q110:02 (10:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. Play 318 (10:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q109:55 (9:55) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 17 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto; 99-Z.Allen). Play 338 (9:55) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 17 for no gain (15-N.Bonitto; 99-Z.Allen).
Q109:21 (9:21) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 17 for no gain (40-J.Strnad). Play 367 (9:21) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 17 for no gain (40-J.Strnad).
Q108:46 (8:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 36 for 19 yards (9-T.Hufanga). FUMBLES (9-T.Hufanga), touched at LAC 38, RECOVERED by DEN-22-B.Jones at LAC 40. Play 389 (8:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 36 for 19 yards (9-T.Hufanga). FUMBLES (9-T.Hufanga), touched at LAC 38, RECOVERED by DEN-22-B.Jones at LAC 40.
Q108:36 (8:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to LAC 39 for 1 yard (0-D.Henley). Play 425 (8:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to LAC 39 for 1 yard (0-D.Henley).
Q107:54 (7:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at LAC 5 for 34 yards (20-C.Hart). Play 450 (7:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at LAC 5 for 34 yards (20-C.Hart).
Q107:15 (7:15) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 4 for 1 yard (2-E.Molden; 99-J.Caldwell). PENALTY on LAC-27-R.Mickens, Face Mask, 2 yards, enforced at LAC 4. Play 475 (7:15) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 4 for 1 yard (2-E.Molden; 99-J.Caldwell). PENALTY on LAC-27-R.Mickens, Face Mask, 2 yards, enforced at LAC 4.
Q106:57 (6:57) 27-J.Dobbins left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 510 (6:57) 27-J.Dobbins left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q106:53 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 533 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q106:53 3-W.Lutz kicks 65 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 0. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 29 for 29 yards (37-S.Fresch). Play 548 3-W.Lutz kicks 65 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 0. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 29 for 29 yards (37-S.Fresch).
Q106:47 (6:47) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 38 for 9 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 578 (6:47) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 38 for 9 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q106:13 (6:13) 28-K.Vidal left end to LAC 40 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 600 (6:13) 28-K.Vidal left end to LAC 40 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q105:35 (5:35) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 49 for 9 yards (22-B.Jones; 40-J.Strnad). Play 622 (5:35) 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 49 for 9 yards (22-B.Jones; 40-J.Strnad).
Q105:00 (5:00) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left guard to LAC 48 for -1 yards (92-D.Tillman, 49-A.Singleton). Play 644 (5:00) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton left guard to LAC 48 for -1 yards (92-D.Tillman, 49-A.Singleton).
Q104:20 (4:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 86-O.Gadsden (22-B.Jones). Play 666 (4:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 86-O.Gadsden (22-B.Jones).
Q104:12 (4:12) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. Play 689 (4:12) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q104:05 (4:05) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 28-T.Badie to DEN 10 for -5 yards (99-J.Caldwell). Play 709 (4:05) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 28-T.Badie to DEN 10 for -5 yards (99-J.Caldwell).
Q103:23 (3:23) 19-M.Mims right end to DEN 13 for 3 yards (23-T.Jefferson). Play 741 (3:23) 19-M.Mims right end to DEN 13 for 3 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q102:37 (2:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 13 - No Play. Play 763 (2:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 13 - No Play.
Q102:18 (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to DEN 13 for 5 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 20-C.Hart). Play 787 (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to DEN 13 for 5 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 20-C.Hart).
Q101:38 (1:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 1 yard (34-J.Skinner). Play 812 (1:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 1 yard (34-J.Skinner).
Q101:27 (1:27) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 48 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 838 (1:27) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 48 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q100:53 (:53) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 49 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones; 99-Z.Allen). Play 870 (:53) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 49 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones; 99-Z.Allen).
Q100:10 (:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 9-T.Harris. Play 894 (:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 9-T.Harris.
Q100:06 (:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 41 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). Play 917 (:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 41 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 937 Q215:00 (15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. Play 957 (15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q214:52 (14:52) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 10 for 1 yard (90-A.Mesidor). Play 977 (14:52) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 10 for 1 yard (90-A.Mesidor).
Q214:09 (14:09) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Play 1001 (14:09) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
Q214:03 (14:03) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie up the middle to DEN 16 for 6 yards (52-K.Mack; 23-T.Jefferson). Play 1026 (14:03) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie up the middle to DEN 16 for 6 yards (52-K.Mack; 23-T.Jefferson).
Q213:19 (13:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LAC 43, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 1048 (13:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LAC 43, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q213:13 (13:13) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 49 for 6 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 1067 (13:13) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to LAC 49 for 6 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q212:36 (12:36) 28-K.Vidal left tackle to DEN 48 for 3 yards (92-D.Tillman). Play 1099 (12:36) 28-K.Vidal left tackle to DEN 48 for 3 yards (92-D.Tillman).
Q212:02 (12:02) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to DEN 47 for 1 yard (40-J.Strnad). Play 1121 (12:02) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to DEN 47 for 1 yard (40-J.Strnad).
Q211:23 (11:23) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right end to DEN 36 for 11 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 22-B.Jones). Play 1143 (11:23) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right end to DEN 36 for 11 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 22-B.Jones).
Q210:40 (10:40) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to DEN 38 for -2 yards (15-N.Bonitto). Play 1172 (10:40) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to DEN 38 for -2 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
Q210:01 (10:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at DEN 24 for 14 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 1194 (10:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 9-T.Harris pushed ob at DEN 24 for 14 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q209:33 (9:33) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end pushed ob at DEN 26 for -2 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 1219 (9:33) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end pushed ob at DEN 26 for -2 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q209:02 (9:02) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right. Play 1251 (9:02) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right.
Q208:58 (8:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 9-T.Harris to DEN 24 for 2 yards (97-M.Roach). Play 1287 (8:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 9-T.Harris to DEN 24 for 2 yards (97-M.Roach).
Q208:21 (8:21) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 1312 (8:21) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q208:18 11-C.Dicker kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to DEN 7. 37-S.Fresch to DEN 24 for 17 yards (58-M.Wax). Play 1332 11-C.Dicker kicks 58 yards from LAC 35 to DEN 7. 37-S.Fresch to DEN 24 for 17 yards (58-M.Wax).
Q208:13 (8:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 1362 (8:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q208:10 (8:10) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 30 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley; 45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 1390 (8:10) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 30 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley; 45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q207:29 (7:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play. Play 1412 (7:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play.
Q207:23 (7:23) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 40 for 5 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). Play 1446 (7:23) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 40 for 5 yards (92-J.Eboigbe).
Q206:43 (6:43) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 44 for 4 yards (0-D.Henley; 90-A.Mesidor). Play 1468 (6:43) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 44 for 4 yards (0-D.Henley; 90-A.Mesidor).
Q205:59 (5:59) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right end to DEN 44 for no gain (20-C.Hart). Play 1490 (5:59) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right end to DEN 44 for no gain (20-C.Hart).
Q205:19 (5:19) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (92-J.Eboigbe). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 1514 (5:19) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (92-J.Eboigbe). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q204:50 (4:50) 17-J.Waddle right end pushed ob at LAC 46 for 9 yards (0-D.Henley). Play 1563 (4:50) 17-J.Waddle right end pushed ob at LAC 46 for 9 yards (0-D.Henley).
Q204:19 (4:19) 12-R.Harvey right end to LAC 42 for 4 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 0-D.Henley). Play 1590 (4:19) 12-R.Harvey right end to LAC 42 for 4 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 0-D.Henley).
Q203:36 (3:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 11-T.Franklin to LAC 30 for 12 yards (23-T.Jefferson). Play 1612 (3:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 11-T.Franklin to LAC 30 for 12 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q202:55 (2:55) 12-R.Harvey left tackle to LAC 28 for 2 yards (4-T.Still). Play 1637 (2:55) 12-R.Harvey left tackle to LAC 28 for 2 yards (4-T.Still).
Q202:10 (2:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on LAC-4-T.Still, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 28 - No Play. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the pass was not tipped ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.) Play 1659 (2:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on LAC-4-T.Still, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 28 - No Play. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the pass was not tipped ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
Q202:07 (2:07) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 16 for 3 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 1693 (2:07) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 16 for 3 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle. Play 1759 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle.
Q201:56 (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 12-R.Harvey (0-D.Henley). Play 1789 (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 12-R.Harvey (0-D.Henley).
Q201:52 (1:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 1812 (1:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q201:48 3-W.Lutz kicks 56 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 9. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 27 for 18 yards (51-Q.Robinson). Play 1832 3-W.Lutz kicks 56 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 9. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 27 for 18 yards (51-Q.Robinson).
Q201:44 (1:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 28-K.Vidal to LAC 26 for -1 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 1855 (1:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 28-K.Vidal to LAC 26 for -1 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q201:37 Timeout #1 by DEN at 01:37. Play 1892 Timeout #1 by DEN at 01:37.
Q201:37 (1:37) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 27 for 1 yard (49-A.Singleton; 29-J.McMillian). Play 1880 (1:37) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 27 for 1 yard (49-A.Singleton; 29-J.McMillian).
Q201:33 Timeout #2 by DEN at 01:33. Play 1921 Timeout #2 by DEN at 01:33.
Q201:33 (1:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 9-T.Harris (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 1909 (1:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 9-T.Harris (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q201:29 (1:29) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. Play 1939 (1:29) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q201:21 (1:21) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play. Play 1959 (1:21) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play.
Q201:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 5-L.Humphrey (4-T.Still). Play 1993 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 5-L.Humphrey (4-T.Still).
Q201:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Sutton, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play. Play 2016 (1:11) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Sutton, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play.
Q201:09 (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 42 for -5 yards (90-A.Mesidor). FUMBLES (90-A.Mesidor) [90-A.Mesidor], touched at DEN 42, recovered by DEN-69-M.McGlinchey at DEN 41. Play 2050 (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 42 for -5 yards (90-A.Mesidor). FUMBLES (90-A.Mesidor) [90-A.Mesidor], touched at DEN 42, recovered by DEN-69-M.McGlinchey at DEN 41.
Q200:20 Timeout #3 by DEN at 00:20. Play 2099 Timeout #3 by DEN at 00:20.
Q200:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram to LAC 48 for 11 yards (33-D.Leonard). Play 2087 (:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram to LAC 48 for 11 yards (33-D.Leonard).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2119 Q315:00 3-W.Lutz kicks 59 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 6. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 27 for 21 yards (47-K.Reid). Play 2139 3-W.Lutz kicks 59 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 6. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 27 for 21 yards (47-K.Reid).
Q314:54 (14:54) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 29 for 2 yards (92-D.Tillman). Play 2162 (14:54) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 29 for 2 yards (92-D.Tillman).
Q314:13 (14:13) 28-K.Vidal right end to LAC 31 for 2 yards (29-J.McMillian; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 29 - No Play. Play 2184 (14:13) 28-K.Vidal right end to LAC 31 for 2 yards (29-J.McMillian; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 29 - No Play.
Q313:53 (13:53) 28-K.Vidal right end to LAC 22 for 3 yards (52-J.Elliss). Play 2217 (13:53) 28-K.Vidal right end to LAC 22 for 3 yards (52-J.Elliss).
Q313:12 (13:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 82-T.Wease to LAC 38 for 16 yards (29-J.McMillian). Play 2239 (13:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 82-T.Wease to LAC 38 for 16 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q312:30 (12:30) (Shotgun) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 39 for 1 yard (22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LAC-61-D.Brunskill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play. Play 2264 (12:30) (Shotgun) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 39 for 1 yard (22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LAC-61-D.Brunskill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play.
Q312:10 (12:10) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 38 for 10 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 2304 (12:10) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 38 for 10 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q311:27 (11:27) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 45 for 7 yards (29-J.McMillian). Play 2326 (11:27) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 45 for 7 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q310:42 (10:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to DEN 47 for 8 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 2348 (10:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 88-C.Kolar to DEN 47 for 8 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q309:59 (9:59) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right end to DEN 48 for -1 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 2373 (9:59) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right end to DEN 48 for -1 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q309:21 (9:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell pushed ob at DEN 39 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 2395 (9:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 34-K.Mitchell pushed ob at DEN 39 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q308:44 (8:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to DEN 33 for 6 yards (29-J.McMillian). Play 2425 (8:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to DEN 33 for 6 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q308:08 (8:08) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to DEN 32 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones; 51-Q.Robinson). Play 2450 (8:08) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to DEN 32 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones; 51-Q.Robinson).
Q307:32 (7:32) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal right end to DEN 30 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 2472 (7:32) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal right end to DEN 30 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q306:52 (6:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert right end to DEN 7 for 23 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 2494 (6:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert right end to DEN 7 for 23 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q306:13 (6:13) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to DEN 7 for no gain (96-E.Uwazurike). Play 2516 (6:13) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to DEN 7 for no gain (96-E.Uwazurike).
Q305:36 (5:36) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 40-H.Rucci for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2538 (5:36) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 40-H.Rucci for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q305:32 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Penalty on DEN-51-Q.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 2559 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Penalty on DEN-51-Q.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q305:32 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35. Play 2585 11-C.Dicker kicks 65 yards from LAC 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35.
Q305:32 (5:32) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at DEN 39 for 4 yards (90-A.Mesidor). Play 2609 (5:32) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at DEN 39 for 4 yards (90-A.Mesidor).
Q304:57 (4:57) 27-J.Dobbins right end to DEN 39 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson; 53-D.Phillips). Play 2634 (4:57) 27-J.Dobbins right end to DEN 39 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson; 53-D.Phillips).
Q304:20 (4:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Penalty on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 2656 (4:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Penalty on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q304:14 (4:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 2690 (4:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q304:08 (4:08) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 8 for 5 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 2709 (4:08) 8-O.Hampton left tackle to LAC 8 for 5 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q303:31 (3:31) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 28-K.Vidal [92-D.Tillman]. Play 2739 (3:31) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 28-K.Vidal [92-D.Tillman].
Q303:28 Timeout #1 by LAC at 03:28. Play 2774 Timeout #1 by LAC at 03:28.
Q303:28 (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at LAC 17. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to LAC 3 for 14 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 8 - No Play. Play 2762 (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at LAC 17. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to LAC 3 for 14 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 8 - No Play.
Q303:19 (3:19) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 11 for -2 yards (9-T.Hufanga, 93-D.Jones). DEN-9-T.Hufanga was injured during the play. Play 2817 (3:19) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 11 for -2 yards (9-T.Hufanga, 93-D.Jones). DEN-9-T.Hufanga was injured during the play.
Q302:50 (2:50) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 9 for -2 yards (51-Q.Robinson). Play 2853 (2:50) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to LAC 9 for -2 yards (51-Q.Robinson).
Q302:09 (2:09) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 13 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 2875 (2:09) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 13 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q301:26 (1:26) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 9 yards (58-M.Wax). Play 2897 (1:26) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 9 yards (58-M.Wax).
Q301:15 (1:15) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle to DEN 41 for 1 yard (90-A.Mesidor, 45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at DEN 42. Play 2923 (1:15) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle to DEN 41 for 1 yard (90-A.Mesidor, 45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at DEN 42.
Q301:07 (1:07) 28-K.Vidal left tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2963 (1:07) 28-K.Vidal left tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q300:57 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Play 2987 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q300:57 11-C.Dicker kicks 62 yards from LAC 35 to DEN 3. 37-S.Fresch to DEN 29 for 26 yards (92-J.Eboigbe; 28-K.Vidal). Play 3002 11-C.Dicker kicks 62 yards from LAC 35 to DEN 3. 37-S.Fresch to DEN 29 for 26 yards (92-J.Eboigbe; 28-K.Vidal).
Q300:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 32 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor). Play 3037 (:52) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 32 for 3 yards (90-A.Mesidor).
Q300:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left tackle to DEN 33 for 1 yard (91-N.Barrett). Play 3059 (:16) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left tackle to DEN 33 for 1 yard (91-N.Barrett).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3081 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton (20-C.Hart, 22-G.Smith). Play 3101 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton (20-C.Hart, 22-G.Smith).
Q414:55 (14:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. Play 3124 (14:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q414:49 (14:49) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 23 for 5 yards (96-E.Uwazurike). Play 3144 (14:49) 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 23 for 5 yards (96-E.Uwazurike).
Q414:13 (14:13) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right. Play 3166 (14:13) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right.
Q414:07 (14:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 19 for -4 yards (15-N.Bonitto). Play 3189 (14:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 19 for -4 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
Q413:23 (13:23) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on LAC-37-I.Waxter, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 19 - No Play. Play 3209 (13:23) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on LAC-37-I.Waxter, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 19 - No Play.
Q413:16 (13:16) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to DEN 47, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to LAC 27 for 26 yards (28-K.Vidal; 33-D.Leonard). Play 3240 (13:16) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to DEN 47, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to LAC 27 for 26 yards (28-K.Vidal; 33-D.Leonard).
Q413:03 (13:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Waddle. Play 3266 (13:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Waddle.
Q412:59 (12:59) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 27-J.Dobbins to LAC 24 for 3 yards (0-D.Henley; 53-D.Phillips) [99-J.Caldwell]. Play 3289 (12:59) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 27-J.Dobbins to LAC 24 for 3 yards (0-D.Henley; 53-D.Phillips) [99-J.Caldwell].
Q412:15 Timeout #2 by LAC at 12:15. Play 3326 Timeout #2 by LAC at 12:15.
Q412:15 (12:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle [53-D.Phillips]. Play 3314 (12:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle [53-D.Phillips].
Q412:08 (12:08) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 3344 (12:08) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q412:05 (12:05) 28-K.Vidal left end to LAC 33 for 1 yard (97-M.Roach; 92-D.Tillman). Play 3365 (12:05) 28-K.Vidal left end to LAC 33 for 1 yard (97-M.Roach; 92-D.Tillman).
Q411:25 (11:25) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 34-K.Mitchell. Play 3399 (11:25) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 34-K.Mitchell.
Q411:22 (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles left end to LAC 41 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 3422 (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles left end to LAC 41 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q410:33 (10:33) 10-J.Herbert right guard to LAC 41 for no gain (51-Q.Robinson). Play 3444 (10:33) 10-J.Herbert right guard to LAC 41 for no gain (51-Q.Robinson).
Q410:27 (10:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at LAC 28 for 13 yards (53-D.Phillips; 33-D.Leonard). Play 3466 (10:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at LAC 28 for 13 yards (53-D.Phillips; 33-D.Leonard).
Q409:53 (9:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at LAC 21 for 7 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 3496 (9:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at LAC 21 for 7 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q409:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at LAC 11 for 10 yards (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-23-T.Jefferson, Roughing the Passer, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 11. Play 3523 (9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at LAC 11 for 10 yards (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-23-T.Jefferson, Roughing the Passer, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 11.
Q409:01 (9:01) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Play 3559 (9:01) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
Q408:56 (8:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3582 (8:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q408:53 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 3603 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q408:53 3-W.Lutz kicks 51 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 14. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 32 for 18 yards (37-S.Fresch). Play 3618 3-W.Lutz kicks 51 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 14. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 32 for 18 yards (37-S.Fresch).
Q408:50 (8:50) 28-K.Vidal left end to LAC 32 for no gain (96-E.Uwazurike). Play 3653 (8:50) 28-K.Vidal left end to LAC 32 for no gain (96-E.Uwazurike).
Q408:06 (8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23. Play 3675 (8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23.
Q407:55 (7:55) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to LAC 9 for 14 yards (4-T.Still). Play 3710 (7:55) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to LAC 9 for 14 yards (4-T.Still).
Q407:11 (7:11) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 8 for 1 yard (20-C.Hart; 53-D.Phillips). Play 3732 (7:11) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 8 for 1 yard (20-C.Hart; 53-D.Phillips).
Q406:29 (6:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix up the middle to LAC 7 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu). Play 3754 (6:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix up the middle to LAC 7 for 1 yard (45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q405:46 (5:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to LAC 1 for 6 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 3776 (5:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to LAC 1 for 6 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q405:10 Timeout #1 by DEN at 05:10. Play 3813 Timeout #1 by DEN at 05:10.
Q405:10 (5:10) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 3801 (5:10) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q405:07 3-W.Lutz kicks 60 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 5. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 27 for 22 yards (34-J.Skinner). Play 3828 3-W.Lutz kicks 60 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 5. 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 27 for 22 yards (34-J.Skinner).
Q405:02 (5:02) 34-K.Mitchell right end pushed ob at LAC 30 for 3 yards (23-J.Barron; 40-J.Strnad). Play 3851 (5:02) 34-K.Mitchell right end pushed ob at LAC 30 for 3 yards (23-J.Barron; 40-J.Strnad).
Q404:57 (4:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 21 for -9 yards (93-D.Jones). FUMBLES (93-D.Jones) [93-D.Jones], and recovers at LAC 19. Play 3873 (4:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 21 for -9 yards (93-D.Jones). FUMBLES (93-D.Jones) [93-D.Jones], and recovers at LAC 19.
Q404:13 (4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 31 for 12 yards (40-J.Strnad; 97-M.Roach). Play 3903 (4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 31 for 12 yards (40-J.Strnad; 97-M.Roach).
Q403:26 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at LAC 41. 22-B.Jones to LAC 34 for 7 yards (13-M.Valdes-Scantling). Play 3925 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at LAC 41. 22-B.Jones to LAC 34 for 7 yards (13-M.Valdes-Scantling).
Q403:19 (3:19) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to LAC 21 for 13 yards (2-E.Molden; 27-R.Mickens). Play 3952 (3:19) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to LAC 21 for 13 yards (2-E.Molden; 27-R.Mickens).
Q403:13 Timeout #3 by LAC at 03:13. Play 3986 Timeout #3 by LAC at 03:13.
Q403:13 (3:13) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle to LAC 19 for 2 yards (2-E.Molden). Play 3974 (3:13) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle to LAC 19 for 2 yards (2-E.Molden).
Q402:29 Timeout #2 by DEN at 02:29. Play 4015 Timeout #2 by DEN at 02:29.
Q402:29 (2:29) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 19 - No Play. Play 4003 (2:29) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 19 - No Play.
Q402:29 (2:29) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to LAC 20 for 4 yards (4-T.Still). Play 4036 (2:29) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to LAC 20 for 4 yards (4-T.Still).
Q402:00 (2:00) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 13 for 7 yards (53-D.Phillips; 2-E.Molden). Play 4060 (2:00) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 13 for 7 yards (53-D.Phillips; 2-E.Molden).
Q401:12 (1:12) (Run formation) PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 13 - No Play. Play 4089 (1:12) (Run formation) PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 13 - No Play.
Q401:12 (1:12) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 4113 (1:12) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q401:08 3-W.Lutz kicks 62 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 31 for 28 yards (26-D.Key). Play 4133 3-W.Lutz kicks 62 yards from DEN 35 to LAC 3. 28-K.Vidal to LAC 31 for 28 yards (26-D.Key).
Q401:02 (1:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 34 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 4156 (1:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 34 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q400:45 (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Kolar (40-J.Strnad). Play 4181 (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Kolar (40-J.Strnad).
Q400:41 (:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling. PENALTY on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 34 - No Play. Play 4208 (:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling. PENALTY on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 34 - No Play.
Q400:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to LAC 48 for 9 yards (26-D.Key). Play 4242 (:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to LAC 48 for 9 yards (26-D.Key).
Q400:15 (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to DEN 39 for 13 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 4267 (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to DEN 39 for 13 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q400:04 (:04) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4292 (:04) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:03 Timeout #3 by DEN at 00:03. Play 4327 Timeout #3 by DEN at 00:03.
Q400:03 (:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at DEN 46 for -7 yards (29-J.McMillian). Play 4315 (:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at DEN 46 for -7 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Elapsed share 0.9138888888888889
Game seconds remaining 310
Half seconds remaining 310
Quarter seconds remaining 310
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7482581525123387 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74826/0.68023/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN -2.36 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q112:37 Penalty · DEN (12:37) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC -4.24 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3451
Half seconds remaining 1651
Quarter seconds remaining 751
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 15
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3451
Half seconds remaining 1651
Quarter seconds remaining 751
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC -1.23 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3451
Half seconds remaining 1651
Quarter seconds remaining 751
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 15
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3451
Half seconds remaining 1651
Quarter seconds remaining 751
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q104:12 Fourth down · LAC (4:12) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 3 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -1.703632895859901
Yardline 100 52
Elapsed share 0.18
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2952
Half seconds remaining 1152
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 252
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2386136403355553 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.23861/0.16584/0.20863 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:37 Penalty · DEN (2:37) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC 2.72 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 17
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 92
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2857
Half seconds remaining 1057
Quarter seconds remaining 157
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 12
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2857
Half seconds remaining 1057
Quarter seconds remaining 157
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC 0.57 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 17
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 92
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2857
Half seconds remaining 1057
Quarter seconds remaining 157
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 12
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2857
Half seconds remaining 1057
Quarter seconds remaining 157
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q402:29 Penalty · DEN (2:29) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC 2.52 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 13
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 149
Half seconds remaining 149
Quarter seconds remaining 149
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 8
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 149
Half seconds remaining 149
Quarter seconds remaining 149
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC 0.63 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 13
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 149
Half seconds remaining 149
Quarter seconds remaining 149
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 8
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 149
Half seconds remaining 149
Quarter seconds remaining 149
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q110:02 Fourth down · DEN (10:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 2.5 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -2.513438805148017
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.08277777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3302
Half seconds remaining 1502
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 602
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6073688960484217 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60737/0.55077/0.58239 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:48 Penalty · DEN (12:48) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC 2.46 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 15
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3468
Half seconds remaining 1668
Quarter seconds remaining 768
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3468
Half seconds remaining 1668
Quarter seconds remaining 768
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LAC 0.56 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 15
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3468
Half seconds remaining 1668
Quarter seconds remaining 768
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 66
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3468
Half seconds remaining 1668
Quarter seconds remaining 768
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q414:55 Fourth down · DEN (14:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 1.02 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.1732893415460038
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.7513888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 895
Half seconds remaining 895
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 895
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2500960326905605 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25010/ NA/0.23991 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:38 Fourth down · DEN (1:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 1 yard (34-J.Skinner). + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -1.435699026929883
Yardline 100 87
Elapsed share 0.2227777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2798
Half seconds remaining 998
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 98
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7312325919904642 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70137/ NA/0.73123 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Fourth down · LAC (15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -1.287578044100048
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.25
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2095274745692003 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18189/ NA/0.20953 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:19 Fourth down · DEN (13:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LAC 43, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -1.15089597333116
Yardline 100 84
Elapsed share 0.2780555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2599
Half seconds remaining 799
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 799
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7461822427381992 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74477/ NA/0.74618 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:21 Kick · LAC (8:21) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.8264876000168956
Yardline 100 24
Elapsed share 0.3608333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2301
Half seconds remaining 501
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 501
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2275682585331734 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22126/0.22757/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LAC 0.34 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 32 recorded events Q205:19 Fourth down · DEN (5:19) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (92-J.Eboigbe). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.6751687718040433
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.4113888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2119
Half seconds remaining 319
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 319
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7484053495470305 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74841/ NA/0.72180 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:52 Kick · DEN (1:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.5364442765592179
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.4688888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q201:29 Fourth down · LAC (1:29) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.5229088345602309
Yardline 100 73
Elapsed share 0.4752777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q304:14 Fourth down · DEN (4:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.2310745694034351
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.6794444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q301:26 Fourth down · LAC (1:26) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 9 yards (58-M.Wax). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.191727252663524
Yardline 100 87
Elapsed share 0.7261111111111112
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q410:33 Fourth down · LAC (10:33) 10-J.Herbert right guard to LAC 41 for no gain (51-Q.Robinson). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.1295221074942436
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.8241666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q403:26 Fourth down · LAC (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at LAC 41. 22-B.Jones to LAC 34 for 7 yards (13-M.Valdes-Scantling). + Fourth down decision cost LAC 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LAC
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.08059262437790551
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.9427777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LAC
Home receive 2h ko Q401:12 Kick · DEN (1:12) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.069443831605296
Yardline 100 18
Elapsed share 0.98
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3 Q108:46 Fumble · LAC (8:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to LAC 36 for 19 yards (9-T.Hufanga). FUMBLES (9-T.Hufanga), touched at LAC 38, RECOVERED by DEN-22-B.Jones at LAC 40. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q107:15 Penalty · DEN (7:15) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LAC 4 for 1 yard (2-E.Molden; 99-J.Caldwell). PENALTY on LAC-27-R.Mickens, Face Mask, 2 yards, enforced at LAC 4. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q106:53 Kick · DEN 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Extra point points above expectation DEN 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q207:29 Penalty · DEN (7:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:10 Penalty · DEN (2:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on LAC-4-T.Still, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 28 - No Play. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the pass was not tipped ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.) + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:21 Penalty · DEN (1:21) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:11 Penalty · DEN (1:11) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Sutton, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:09 Fumble · DEN (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 42 for -5 yards (90-A.Mesidor). FUMBLES (90-A.Mesidor) [90-A.Mesidor], touched at DEN 42, recovered by DEN-69-M.McGlinchey at DEN 41. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q314:13 Penalty · LAC (14:13) 28-K.Vidal right end to LAC 31 for 2 yards (29-J.McMillian; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:30 Penalty · LAC (12:30) (Shotgun) 61-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 34-K.Mitchell right end to LAC 39 for 1 yard (22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LAC-61-D.Brunskill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:32 Kick · LAC 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. Penalty on DEN-51-Q.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Extra point points above expectation LAC 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q304:20 Fourth down · DEN (4:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Penalty on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q303:28 Penalty · LAC (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at LAC 17. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to LAC 3 for 14 yards (86-O.Gadsden). PENALTY on DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 8 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:15 Fumble · DEN (1:15) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle to DEN 41 for 1 yard (90-A.Mesidor, 45-T.Tuipulotu). FUMBLES (45-T.Tuipulotu), RECOVERED by LAC-45-T.Tuipulotu at DEN 42. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q300:57 Kick · LAC 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. + Extra point points above expectation LAC 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q413:23 Penalty · LAC (13:23) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on LAC-37-I.Waxter, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:16 Fourth down · LAC (13:16) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to DEN 47, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to LAC 27 for 26 yards (28-K.Vidal; 33-D.Leonard). + Fourth down decision cost LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:08 Kick · DEN (12:08) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0.51 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team DEN
Home team LAC
Away total 23
Home total 19.5
Total line 42.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3.5
Spread time -0.1439415243739445
Yardline 100 24
Elapsed share 0.7977777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q409:17 Penalty · DEN (9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at LAC 11 for 10 yards (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on LAC-23-T.Jefferson, Roughing the Passer, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 11. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:53 Kick · DEN 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Extra point points above expectation DEN 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q408:06 Fumble · LAC (8:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (99-Z.Allen). FUMBLES (99-Z.Allen) [99-Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-51-Q.Robinson at LAC 23. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q404:57 Fumble · LAC (4:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 21 for -9 yards (93-D.Jones). FUMBLES (93-D.Jones) [93-D.Jones], and recovers at LAC 19. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LAC -0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.38 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q401:12 Penalty · DEN (1:12) (Run formation) PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:41 Penalty · LAC (:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling. PENALTY on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LAC Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-pbp Retrieved Oct 12, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 a2a49fe18159f17e1ba75cccf588226519757f860bf22b41e6eed97b0d971970
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 12, 2026, 12:40 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 10698ce9a84284653f9f77ae5cccfbe35b3930efede7974e896c2ae98b90b355Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 01caaa604787781346caca567ee2c0b965355162a14e1fea01c16eeaab16c3d4
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 4 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 12, 2026, 12:57 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 12, 2026, 12:42 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 12, 2026, 12:17 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 11:45 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
4
Game seconds remaining 1912
Half seconds remaining 112
Quarter seconds remaining 112
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7634753980865058 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.75432/0.76348/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN -2.36 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
-7
Game seconds remaining 1889
Quarter seconds remaining 89
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1766436541655777 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15809/ NA/0.17664 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1154
Half seconds remaining 1154
Quarter seconds remaining 254
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5745031036422753 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56533/ NA/0.57450 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 986
Half seconds remaining 986
Quarter seconds remaining 86
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3354994722468952 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30771/ NA/0.33550 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 633
Half seconds remaining 633
Quarter seconds remaining 633
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7902911929871027 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79029/ NA/0.76220 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 206
Half seconds remaining 206
Quarter seconds remaining 206
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2036096072067539 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20361/ NA/0.18955 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Quarter seconds remaining 72
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9041434965337908 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.89214/0.90414/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN -2.36 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 728
Half seconds remaining 728
Quarter seconds remaining 728
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2859114748514261 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28591/0.28077/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN -2.36 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled