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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Houston Texans by 6.5
Final margin Houston Texans by 23
Difference 16.5 points
Houston Texans covered the spread.
1,581 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (21.7%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin HOU by 23
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Alex Kemp Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.7 accepted penalties for 106.1 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Tennessee Titans · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Houston Texans · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Tennessee Titans chance to win during the game 144 preplay estimates across 164 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 20 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
TEN Observed ruling consequence 0.94 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Ruling expected points consequence 0.35 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 2 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q1 · 03:51 Recorded game event
Houston Texans · Play 718 (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on HOU-9-B.Jordan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 18.
A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified. Estimated chance to win moved 1.7 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 04:12 Recorded game event
Tennessee Titans · Play 2787 (4:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 38 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on HOU awarded TEN a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.0 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 164 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 164 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 27 yards (34-B.Hall). Play 40 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 27 yards (34-B.Hall).
Q114:53 (14:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley to HOU 47 for 23 yards (35-J.Hansen). Play 63 (14:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley to HOU 47 for 23 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q114:16 (14:16) 20-T.Pollard right guard to HOU 43 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 72-T.Togiai). Play 88 (14:16) 20-T.Pollard right guard to HOU 43 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 72-T.Togiai).
Q113:39 (13:39) 20-T.Pollard right guard to HOU 29 for 14 yards (55-D.Hunter). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 34 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q304:12 Penalty · TEN (4:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN 3.2 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 52
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 1148
Half seconds remaining 1148
Quarter seconds remaining 248
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 9, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 406dc1771fd37094ed8f0e597de5cdb965db2d12e09d354f1db1d7b55b832864ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot Team penalties per game 7 / 56.3 yd 8.4 / 70.4 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 47.7 yd per game. Away teams: 6.7 / 58.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Alex Kemp; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 144 model estimates across 164 recorded game entries.
20 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (164 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence 0.91 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Ruling expected points consequence 0.57 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
HOU Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence 3.2 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Ruling expected points consequence 3.47 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence -0.99 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Ruling expected points consequence -3.15 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence 0.11 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Ruling expected points consequence 1.11 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Ruling expected points consequence 0.1 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
TEN Fourth down decision cost 2.86 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30083/0.27222/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 1.63 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69726/0.63180/0.68098 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67110/0.68199/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76298/0.77543/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0.48 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83103/0.82622/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11393/ NA/0.11741 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.86499/0.87345/0.86131 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07468/ NA/0.07962 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01301/ NA/0.01388 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0.03 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00041/0.00070/0.00030 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
HOU Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99959/0.99959/0.99967 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 3e-05/0e+00/0e+00 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
TEN Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.6 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
HOU Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.6 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
TEN Field goal points above expectation 0.07 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
HOU Field goal points above expectation 1.53 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
TEN Extra point points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
HOU Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
TEN Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 164 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
HOU Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 164 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
TEN Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.22 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TEN Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 3.89 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 5 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TEN Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.47 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TEN Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.53 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
39 of 39 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 39 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.68 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.8 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
HOU Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.39 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 110
(13:39) 20-T.Pollard right guard to HOU 29 for 14 yards (55-D.Hunter).
Q112:58 (12:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 2-T.Spears to HOU 22 for 7 yards (35-J.Hansen; 72-T.Togiai). Play 132 (12:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 2-T.Spears to HOU 22 for 7 yards (35-J.Hansen; 72-T.Togiai).
Q112:19 (12:19) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to HOU 18 for 4 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 72-T.Togiai). Play 157 (12:19) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to HOU 18 for 4 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 72-T.Togiai).
Q111:41 (11:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 18 - No Play. Play 179 (11:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 18 - No Play.
Q111:29 (11:29) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to HOU 12 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair; 93-K.McDonald). Play 203 (11:29) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to HOU 12 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair; 93-K.McDonald).
Q110:52 (10:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Bellinger. Play 225 (10:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Bellinger.
Q110:47 (10:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor. Play 248 (10:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor.
Q110:42 (10:42) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. Play 271 (10:42) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
Q110:39 6-J.Slye kicks 56 yards from TEN 35 to HOU 9. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 31 for 22 yards (21-M.Robinson). Play 291 6-J.Slye kicks 56 yards from TEN 35 to HOU 9. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 31 for 22 yards (21-M.Robinson).
Q110:31 (10:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 44 for 13 yards (18-C.Flott). Play 326 (10:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 44 for 13 yards (18-C.Flott).
Q109:58 (9:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson (57-J.Martin). Play 351 (9:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson (57-J.Martin).
Q109:54 (9:54) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 49 for 5 yards (29-T.Adams). Play 374 (9:54) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 49 for 5 yards (29-T.Adams).
Q109:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. Play 396 (9:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right.
Q109:12 (9:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-23-D.Ogunbowale. Play 419 (9:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-23-D.Ogunbowale.
Q109:01 (9:01) 20-T.Pollard right guard to TEN 14 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 439 (9:01) 20-T.Pollard right guard to TEN 14 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q108:24 (8:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 86-K.Granson. Play 473 (8:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 86-K.Granson.
Q108:19 (8:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 13 for -1 yards (6-R.Blankenship, 50-K.Murray). Play 496 (8:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 13 for -1 yards (6-R.Blankenship, 50-K.Murray).
Q107:43 (7:43) 3-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to HOU 39, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-34-B.Hall, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39. Play 521 (7:43) 3-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to HOU 39, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-34-B.Hall, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39.
Q107:35 (7:35) 4-W.Marks right tackle to HOU 36 for 12 yards (38-T.Burgess). Play 550 (7:35) 4-W.Marks right tackle to HOU 36 for 12 yards (38-T.Burgess).
Q106:54 (6:54) 13-J.Noel left end ran ob at HOU 37 for 1 yard (38-T.Burgess). Play 591 (6:54) 13-J.Noel left end ran ob at HOU 37 for 1 yard (38-T.Burgess).
Q106:18 (6:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 44 for 7 yards (53-A.Hill; 50-C.Barton). Play 618 (6:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 44 for 7 yards (53-A.Hill; 50-C.Barton).
Q105:36 (5:36) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to TEN 42 for 14 yards (24-A.Taylor). Play 643 (5:36) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to TEN 42 for 14 yards (24-A.Taylor).
Q104:52 (4:52) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 19-X.Hutchinson to TEN 24 for 18 yards (24-A.Taylor). Play 673 (4:52) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 19-X.Hutchinson to TEN 24 for 18 yards (24-A.Taylor).
Q104:18 (4:18) 7-C.Stroud sacked ob at TEN 24 for 0 yards (sack split by 91-J.Franklin-Myers and 33-C.Gray). Play 698 (4:18) 7-C.Stroud sacked ob at TEN 24 for 0 yards (sack split by 91-J.Franklin-Myers and 33-C.Gray).
Q103:51 (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on HOU-9-B.Jordan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 18. Play 718 (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on HOU-9-B.Jordan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 18.
Q103:45 (3:45) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to TEN 28 for no gain (50-C.Barton). Play 752 (3:45) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to TEN 28 for no gain (50-C.Barton).
Q103:06 (3:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks to TEN 27 for 1 yard (98-J.Simmons). Play 774 (3:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks to TEN 27 for 1 yard (98-J.Simmons).
Q102:27 (2:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 799 (2:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q102:22 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 61 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 4. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 32 for 28 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). Play 819 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 61 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 4. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 32 for 28 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz).
Q102:17 (2:17) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 38 for 6 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 854 (2:17) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 38 for 6 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q101:49 (1:49) 2-T.Spears left tackle to TEN 37 for -1 yards (94-D.Robinson). FUMBLES (94-D.Robinson), RECOVERED by HOU-5-J.Pitre at TEN 35. Play 884 (1:49) 2-T.Spears left tackle to TEN 37 for -1 yards (94-D.Robinson). FUMBLES (94-D.Robinson), RECOVERED by HOU-5-J.Pitre at TEN 35.
Q101:44 (1:44) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to TEN 37 for -2 yards (98-J.Simmons). Play 922 (1:44) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to TEN 37 for -2 yards (98-J.Simmons).
Q101:02 (1:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins ran ob at TEN 25 for 12 yards. Play 944 (1:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins ran ob at TEN 25 for 12 yards.
Q100:29 (:29) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right end to TEN 20 for 5 yards (11-J.Johnson; 33-C.Gray). Play 974 (:29) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right end to TEN 20 for 5 yards (11-J.Johnson; 33-C.Gray).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 996 Q215:00 (15:00) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to TEN 17 for 3 yards (29-T.Adams; 50-C.Barton). Play 1016 (15:00) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to TEN 17 for 3 yards (29-T.Adams; 50-C.Barton).
Q214:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right end to TEN 17 for no gain (29-T.Adams). Play 1038 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right end to TEN 17 for no gain (29-T.Adams).
Q213:37 (13:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 1060 (13:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q213:33 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TEN 35. Play 1080 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TEN 35.
Q213:33 (13:33) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right guard to TEN 40 for 5 yards (72-T.Togiai). Play 1104 (13:33) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right guard to TEN 40 for 5 yards (72-T.Togiai).
Q212:52 (12:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson ran ob at 50 for 10 yards. Play 1126 (12:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson ran ob at 50 for 10 yards.
Q212:17 (12:17) 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Hansen (55-D.Hunter) [55-D.Hunter] at HOU 40. 35-J.Hansen pushed ob at TEN 41 for 19 yards (84-G.Helm). Play 1156 (12:17) 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Hansen (55-D.Hunter) [55-D.Hunter] at HOU 40. 35-J.Hansen pushed ob at TEN 41 for 19 yards (84-G.Helm).
Q212:07 (12:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to TEN 32 for 9 yards (33-C.Gray; 90-S.Thomas). Play 1183 (12:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to TEN 32 for 9 yards (33-C.Gray; 90-S.Thomas).
Q211:26 (11:26) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to TEN 31 for 1 yard (33-C.Gray). Play 1208 (11:26) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to TEN 31 for 1 yard (33-C.Gray).
Q210:41 (10:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at TEN 22 for 9 yards (26-M.Harris; 18-C.Flott). PENALTY on HOU-13-J.Noel, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 23. Play 1233 (10:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at TEN 22 for 9 yards (26-M.Harris; 18-C.Flott). PENALTY on HOU-13-J.Noel, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 23.
Q210:09 (10:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to TEN 27 for 11 yards (28-I.Oliver). Play 1274 (10:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to TEN 27 for 11 yards (28-I.Oliver).
Q209:27 (9:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to TEN 11 for 16 yards (33-C.Gray; 28-I.Oliver). Play 1299 (9:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to TEN 11 for 16 yards (33-C.Gray; 28-I.Oliver).
Q208:40 (8:40) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 11 - No Play. Play 1324 (8:40) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 11 - No Play.
Q208:33 (8:33) 4-W.Marks left end to TEN 20 for 1 yard (95-J.Elliott; 29-T.Adams). Play 1358 (8:33) 4-W.Marks left end to TEN 20 for 1 yard (95-J.Elliott; 29-T.Adams).
Q207:47 (7:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 86-D.Schultz. TEN-18-C.Flott was injured during the play. Play 1380 (7:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 86-D.Schultz. TEN-18-C.Flott was injured during the play.
Q207:40 (7:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel to TEN 7 for 13 yards (53-A.Hill). Play 1408 (7:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel to TEN 7 for 13 yards (53-A.Hill).
Q206:59 (6:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 1443 (6:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q206:56 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike to TEN 20 for 17 yards (11-T.Smith). Play 1463 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike to TEN 20 for 17 yards (11-T.Smith).
Q206:51 (6:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 0-C.Ridley (35-J.Hansen) [0-A.Al-Shaair]. Play 1491 (6:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 0-C.Ridley (35-J.Hansen) [0-A.Al-Shaair].
Q206:46 (6:46) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 23 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai; 5-J.Pitre). Play 1514 (6:46) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 23 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai; 5-J.Pitre).
Q206:03 (6:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Tate. Play 1536 (6:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Tate.
Q205:57 (5:57) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel to HOU 31 for 10 yards (5-E.Ayomanor). Play 1559 (5:57) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel to HOU 31 for 10 yards (5-E.Ayomanor).
Q205:44 (5:44) 7-C.Stroud right end ran ob at HOU 32 for 1 yard (91-J.Franklin-Myers; 29-T.Adams). Play 1585 (5:44) 7-C.Stroud right end ran ob at HOU 32 for 1 yard (91-J.Franklin-Myers; 29-T.Adams).
Q205:09 (5:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins to TEN 48 for 20 yards (38-T.Burgess). ** Injury Update: TEN-18-C.Flott has returned to the game. Play 1631 (5:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins to TEN 48 for 20 yards (38-T.Burgess). ** Injury Update: TEN-18-C.Flott has returned to the game.
Q204:21 (4:21) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 48 - No Play. Play 1656 (4:21) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 48 - No Play.
Q203:57 (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 14-K.Boutte ran ob at TEN 46 for 7 yards (18-C.Flott). Play 1683 (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 14-K.Boutte ran ob at TEN 46 for 7 yards (18-C.Flott).
Q203:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks to TEN 37 for 9 yards (95-J.Elliott). Play 1713 (3:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks to TEN 37 for 9 yards (95-J.Elliott).
Q202:44 (2:44) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins (38-T.Burgess). Play 1738 (2:44) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins (38-T.Burgess).
Q202:37 (2:37) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 37 for no gain (95-J.Elliott). Play 1772 (2:37) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 37 for no gain (95-J.Elliott).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-J.Noel to TEN 35 for 2 yards (38-T.Burgess). Play 1794 (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-J.Noel to TEN 35 for 2 yards (38-T.Burgess).
Q201:20 (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 1826 (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q201:15 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 63 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 2. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 28 yards (50-K.Murray; 94-D.Robinson). Play 1846 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 63 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 2. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 28 yards (50-K.Murray; 94-D.Robinson).
Q201:07 (1:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 4-W.Robinson (6-R.Blankenship, 5-J.Pitre). Play 1869 (1:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 4-W.Robinson (6-R.Blankenship, 5-J.Pitre).
Q201:01 (1:01) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 34 for 4 yards (5-J.Pitre). Play 1892 (1:01) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 34 for 4 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q200:53 Timeout #1 by HOU at 00:53. Play 1929 Timeout #1 by HOU at 00:53.
Q200:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 46 for 12 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 1917 (:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 46 for 12 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q200:39 Timeout #1 by TEN at 00:39. Play 1961 Timeout #1 by TEN at 00:39.
Q200:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (2-C.Bullock). Play 1949 (:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (2-C.Bullock).
Q200:30 (:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right. Play 1979 (:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right.
Q200:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 47 for 1 yard (35-J.Hansen; 0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 2002 (:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 47 for 1 yard (35-J.Hansen; 0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q200:16 Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:16. Play 2039 Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:16.
Q200:16 (:16) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. Play 2027 (:16) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.
Q200:10 (:10) 7-C.Stroud kneels to HOU 10 for -1 yards. Play 2063 (:10) 7-C.Stroud kneels to HOU 10 for -1 yards.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2085 Q315:00 6-J.Slye kicks 61 yards from TEN 35 to HOU 4. 11-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 22 yards (56-T.Jones). Play 2105 6-J.Slye kicks 61 yards from TEN 35 to HOU 4. 11-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 22 yards (56-T.Jones).
Q314:52 (14:52) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 30 for 4 yards (21-M.Robinson; 29-T.Adams). Play 2128 (14:52) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 30 for 4 yards (21-M.Robinson; 29-T.Adams).
Q314:16 (14:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to HOU 35 for 5 yards (38-T.Burgess). Play 2150 (14:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to HOU 35 for 5 yards (38-T.Burgess).
Q313:36 (13:36) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to HOU 37 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons). Play 2175 (13:36) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to HOU 37 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons).
Q312:58 (12:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins (98-J.Simmons). Play 2197 (12:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins (98-J.Simmons).
Q312:53 (12:53) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 46 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 21-M.Robinson). PENALTY on HOU-17-J.Wayne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39. Play 2220 (12:53) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 46 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 21-M.Robinson). PENALTY on HOU-17-J.Wayne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39.
Q312:34 (12:34) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 36 for 7 yards (50-C.Barton). Play 2258 (12:34) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 36 for 7 yards (50-C.Barton).
Q311:53 (11:53) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 14-K.Boutte pushed ob at TEN 41 for 23 yards. Play 2283 (11:53) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 14-K.Boutte pushed ob at TEN 41 for 23 yards.
Q311:33 (11:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 14-K.Boutte. Play 2313 (11:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 14-K.Boutte.
Q311:29 (11:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud to TEN 46 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TEN 46. 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-J.Noel to TEN 32 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 29-T.Adams). Play 2347 (11:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud to TEN 46 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TEN 46. 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-J.Noel to TEN 32 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 29-T.Adams).
Q310:49 (10:49) 7-C.Stroud right tackle to TEN 30 for 2 yards (33-C.Gray). Play 2389 (10:49) 7-C.Stroud right tackle to TEN 30 for 2 yards (33-C.Gray).
Q310:13 (10:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 14-K.Boutte to TEN 22 for 8 yards (24-A.Taylor). Play 2411 (10:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 14-K.Boutte to TEN 22 for 8 yards (24-A.Taylor).
Q309:31 (9:31) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 87-F.Moreau. Play 2436 (9:31) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 87-F.Moreau.
Q309:26 (9:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to TEN 16 for 6 yards (98-J.Simmons; 24-A.Taylor). Play 2471 (9:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to TEN 16 for 6 yards (98-J.Simmons; 24-A.Taylor).
Q308:48 (8:48) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 16 - No Play. Play 2496 (8:48) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 16 - No Play.
Q308:45 (8:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to TEN 8 for 13 yards (50-C.Barton; 29-T.Adams). Play 2519 (8:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to TEN 8 for 13 yards (50-C.Barton; 29-T.Adams).
Q308:00 (8:00) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to TEN 3 for 5 yards (38-T.Burgess; 29-T.Adams). Play 2556 (8:00) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to TEN 3 for 5 yards (38-T.Burgess; 29-T.Adams).
Q307:23 (7:23) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 2 for 1 yard (11-J.Johnson; 93-N.Stackhouse). Play 2578 (7:23) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 2 for 1 yard (11-J.Johnson; 93-N.Stackhouse).
Q306:43 (6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2600 (6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q306:37 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 2623 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q306:37 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 26 for 23 yards (9-B.Jordan). Play 2638 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 26 for 23 yards (9-B.Jordan).
Q306:32 (6:32) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to TEN 30 for 4 yards (98-S.Rankins; 5-J.Pitre). Play 2673 (6:32) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to TEN 30 for 4 yards (98-S.Rankins; 5-J.Pitre).
Q306:10 (6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 35 for 5 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 2695 (6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 35 for 5 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q305:35 (5:35) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 36 for 1 yard (98-S.Rankins; 51-W.Anderson). Play 2717 (5:35) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 36 for 1 yard (98-S.Rankins; 51-W.Anderson).
Q304:44 (4:44) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 4-W.Robinson to TEN 38 for 2 yards (55-D.Hunter). Play 2739 (4:44) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 4-W.Robinson to TEN 38 for 2 yards (55-D.Hunter).
Q304:16 (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Tate. Play 2764 (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Tate.
Q304:12 (4:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 38 - No Play. Play 2787 (4:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 38 - No Play.
Q304:08 (4:08) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to HOU 49 for 3 yards (93-K.McDonald; 90-J.Clowney). Play 2821 (4:08) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to HOU 49 for 3 yards (93-K.McDonald; 90-J.Clowney).
Q303:27 (3:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end pushed ob at HOU 47 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 2843 (3:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end pushed ob at HOU 47 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q302:49 (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 14-C.Tate pushed ob at HOU 15 for 32 yards (2-C.Bullock). PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. Play 2870 (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 14-C.Tate pushed ob at HOU 15 for 32 yards (2-C.Bullock). PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play.
Q302:25 (2:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 17-C.Dike (3-K.Lassiter). Play 2911 (2:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 17-C.Dike (3-K.Lassiter).
Q302:20 (2:20) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 26 for 11 yards (86-K.Granson). Play 2934 (2:20) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 26 for 11 yards (86-K.Granson).
Q302:10 (2:10) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 14-K.Boutte. Play 2970 (2:10) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 14-K.Boutte.
Q302:05 (2:05) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on TEN-24-A.Taylor, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play. Play 3000 (2:05) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on TEN-24-A.Taylor, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play.
Q301:59 (1:59) 4-W.Marks left tackle to TEN 41 for 5 yards (53-A.Hill). Play 3034 (1:59) 4-W.Marks left tackle to TEN 41 for 5 yards (53-A.Hill).
Q301:23 (1:23) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 29 for 12 yards (28-I.Oliver). Play 3056 (1:23) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 29 for 12 yards (28-I.Oliver).
Q300:43 (:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at TEN 11 for 18 yards (21-M.Robinson). Play 3078 (:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at TEN 11 for 18 yards (21-M.Robinson).
Q300:07 (:07) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left guard to TEN 11 for no gain (50-C.Barton). Play 3108 (:07) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left guard to TEN 11 for no gain (50-C.Barton).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3130 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks to TEN 9 for 2 yards (53-A.Hill). Play 3150 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks to TEN 9 for 2 yards (53-A.Hill).
Q414:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-J.Noel for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3175 (14:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-J.Noel for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q414:09 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. Play 3201 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q414:09 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 58 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 7. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 24 yards (9-B.Jordan). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 31. Play 3216 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 58 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 7. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 24 yards (9-B.Jordan). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 31.
Q414:04 (14:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to TEN 27 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 3262 (14:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to TEN 27 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q413:37 (13:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at TEN 37 for 10 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 3287 (13:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at TEN 37 for 10 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q413:10 (13:10) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 40 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai; 90-J.Clowney). Play 3317 (13:10) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 40 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai; 90-J.Clowney).
Q412:47 (12:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 4-W.Robinson to HOU 43 for 17 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 3339 (12:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 4-W.Robinson to HOU 43 for 17 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q412:21 (12:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears pushed ob at HOU 8 for 35 yards (6-R.Blankenship). HOU-5-J.Pitre was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-51-A.Schlottmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 41. Play 3364 (12:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears pushed ob at HOU 8 for 35 yards (6-R.Blankenship). HOU-5-J.Pitre was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-51-A.Schlottmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 41.
Q412:06 (12:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate [55-D.Hunter]. HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 49 - No Play. Play 3408 (12:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate [55-D.Hunter]. HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 49 - No Play.
Q412:02 (12:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Latham, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 46 - No Play. Play 3452 (12:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Latham, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 46 - No Play.
Q411:52 (11:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 17-C.Dike to HOU 43 for 13 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 6-R.Blankenship). ** Injury Update: HOU-24-D.Stingley has returned to the game. Play 3493 (11:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 17-C.Dike to HOU 43 for 13 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 6-R.Blankenship). ** Injury Update: HOU-24-D.Stingley has returned to the game.
Q411:26 (11:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 4-W.Robinson to HOU 33 for 10 yards (3-K.Lassiter). Play 3518 (11:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 4-W.Robinson to HOU 33 for 10 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q410:50 (10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at HOU 42 for -9 yards (55-D.Hunter). Play 3551 (10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at HOU 42 for -9 yards (55-D.Hunter).
Q410:10 (10:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Tate [96-L.Hall]. Play 3571 (10:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Tate [96-L.Hall].
Q410:05 (10:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm to HOU 33 for 9 yards (27-K.Ramsey). PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play. Play 3594 (10:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm to HOU 33 for 9 yards (27-K.Ramsey). PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play.
Q409:38 (9:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 17-C.Dike to HOU 43 for 9 yards (6-R.Blankenship). Play 3630 (9:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 17-C.Dike to HOU 43 for 9 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q408:57 (8:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 43 for -14 yards (51-W.Anderson). Play 3655 (8:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 43 for -14 yards (51-W.Anderson).
Q408:53 (8:53) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 31 for 12 yards (53-A.Hill; 28-I.Oliver). Play 3675 (8:53) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 31 for 12 yards (53-A.Hill; 28-I.Oliver).
Q408:08 (8:08) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (15-K.Faulk; 90-S.Thomas). Play 3704 (8:08) 4-W.Marks up the middle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (15-K.Faulk; 90-S.Thomas).
Q407:27 (7:27) 4-W.Marks left guard to TEN 29 for 1 yard (90-S.Thomas). Play 3726 (7:27) 4-W.Marks left guard to TEN 29 for 1 yard (90-S.Thomas).
Q406:43 (6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at TEN 40 for -11 yards (57-J.Martin). Play 3748 (6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at TEN 40 for -11 yards (57-J.Martin).
Q405:56 (5:56) (Punt formation) PENALTY on HOU, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 40 - No Play. Play 3768 (5:56) (Punt formation) PENALTY on HOU, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 40 - No Play.
Q405:56 (5:56) 38-K.Kroeger punts 37 yards to TEN 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Play 3792 (5:56) 38-K.Kroeger punts 37 yards to TEN 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
Q405:49 (5:49) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 11 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai; 95-J.Crumedy). Play 3821 (5:49) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 11 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai; 95-J.Crumedy).
Q405:14 (5:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to TEN 17 for 6 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 3850 (5:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate to TEN 17 for 6 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q404:39 (4:39) 31-K.Mullings left guard to TEN 20 for 3 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 27-K.Ramsey). Play 3875 (4:39) 31-K.Mullings left guard to TEN 20 for 3 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 27-K.Ramsey).
Q404:11 (4:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger to TEN 25 for 5 yards (35-J.Hansen). Play 3897 (4:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger to TEN 25 for 5 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q403:47 (3:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 26 for 1 yard (72-T.Togiai; 95-J.Crumedy). Play 3927 (3:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 26 for 1 yard (72-T.Togiai; 95-J.Crumedy).
Q403:14 (3:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson pushed ob at TEN 34 for 8 yards (27-K.Ramsey). Play 3949 (3:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson pushed ob at TEN 34 for 8 yards (27-K.Ramsey).
Q403:09 (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 41 for 7 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 6-R.Blankenship). Play 3979 (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 41 for 7 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 6-R.Blankenship).
Q402:45 (2:45) (No Huddle) 2-T.Spears up the middle to TEN 44 for 3 yards (98-S.Rankins). Play 4004 (2:45) (No Huddle) 2-T.Spears up the middle to TEN 44 for 3 yards (98-S.Rankins).
Q402:25 (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 40 for -4 yards (51-W.Anderson). Play 4031 (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 40 for -4 yards (51-W.Anderson).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to HOU 43 for 17 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 27-K.Ramsey). Play 4051 (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to HOU 43 for 17 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 27-K.Ramsey).
Q401:35 (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play. 10-second runoff avoided. Play 4088 (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play. 10-second runoff avoided.
Q401:35 Timeout #1 by TEN at 01:35. Play 4126 Timeout #1 by TEN at 01:35.
Q401:34 (1:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 46 for -6 yards (35-J.Hansen). Play 4112 (1:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 46 for -6 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q401:03 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 84-G.Helm (0-A.Al-Shaair). Play 4146 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 84-G.Helm (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q400:58 (:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 48 for 2 yards (98-S.Rankins; 35-J.Hansen). Play 4169 (:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 48 for 2 yards (98-S.Rankins; 35-J.Hansen).
Q400:24 (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 35 for -13 yards (51-W.Anderson). Play 4194 (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 35 for -13 yards (51-W.Anderson).
Q400:19 (:19) 7-C.Stroud kneels to TEN 36 for -1 yards. Play 4214 (:19) 7-C.Stroud kneels to TEN 36 for -1 yards.
Game seconds remaining 1148
Half seconds remaining 1148
Quarter seconds remaining 248
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TEN 3.47 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 52
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 1148
Half seconds remaining 1148
Quarter seconds remaining 248
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 8
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 1148
Half seconds remaining 1148
Quarter seconds remaining 248
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:12 Fourth down · HOU (9:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-23-D.Ogunbowale. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 1.63 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -4.415563726316737
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.09666666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3252
Half seconds remaining 1452
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 552
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6972602170392145 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69726/0.63180/0.68098 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:05 Penalty · HOU (2:05) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on TEN-24-A.Taylor, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN -0.99 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 16
Game seconds remaining 1019
Half seconds remaining 1019
Quarter seconds remaining 119
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 16
Game seconds remaining 1019
Half seconds remaining 1019
Quarter seconds remaining 119
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TEN -3.15 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 16
Game seconds remaining 1019
Half seconds remaining 1019
Quarter seconds remaining 119
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 16
Game seconds remaining 1019
Half seconds remaining 1019
Quarter seconds remaining 119
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q111:41 Penalty · TEN (11:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN 0.94 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 5
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3401
Half seconds remaining 1601
Quarter seconds remaining 701
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3401
Half seconds remaining 1601
Quarter seconds remaining 701
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TEN 0.35 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 5
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3401
Half seconds remaining 1601
Quarter seconds remaining 701
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3401
Half seconds remaining 1601
Quarter seconds remaining 701
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q204:21 Penalty · HOU (4:21) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN 0.91 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 15
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2061
Half seconds remaining 261
Quarter seconds remaining 261
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2061
Half seconds remaining 261
Quarter seconds remaining 261
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TEN 0.57 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 15
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2061
Half seconds remaining 261
Quarter seconds remaining 261
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2061
Half seconds remaining 261
Quarter seconds remaining 261
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q412:06 Penalty · TEN (12:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate [55-D.Hunter]. HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play. PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN 0.11 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -23
Game seconds remaining 722
Half seconds remaining 722
Quarter seconds remaining 722
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 18
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -23
Game seconds remaining 722
Half seconds remaining 722
Quarter seconds remaining 722
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TEN 1.11 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -23
Game seconds remaining 722
Half seconds remaining 722
Quarter seconds remaining 722
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 18
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -23
Game seconds remaining 722
Half seconds remaining 722
Quarter seconds remaining 722
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q408:57 Fourth down · TEN (8:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 43 for -14 yards (51-W.Anderson). + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0.03 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 20
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -0.2162043710342363
Yardline 100 43
Elapsed share 0.8508333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -23
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 537
Half seconds remaining 537
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 537
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.000697916470718204 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00041/0.00070/0.00030 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q405:56 Penalty · HOU (5:56) (Punt formation) PENALTY on HOU, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 24
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 23
Game seconds remaining 356
Half seconds remaining 356
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 19
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 23
Game seconds remaining 356
Half seconds remaining 356
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TEN 0.1 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 24
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 23
Game seconds remaining 356
Half seconds remaining 356
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 19
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 23
Game seconds remaining 356
Half seconds remaining 356
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:27 Kick · HOU (2:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -2.81548773717949
Yardline 100 27
Elapsed share 0.2091666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2847
Half seconds remaining 1047
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 147
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.6819860402268567 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67110/0.68199/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation HOU 1.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q213:37 Kick · HOU (13:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -2.18055614070143
Yardline 100 17
Elapsed share 0.2730555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2617
Half seconds remaining 817
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 817
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7754290596917383 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76298/0.77543/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation HOU 1.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q205:57 Fourth down · TEN (5:57) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel to HOU 31 for 10 yards (5-E.Ayomanor). + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -1.307960225022264
Yardline 100 77
Elapsed share 0.4008333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2157
Half seconds remaining 357
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 357
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1174063588738634 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11393/ NA/0.11741 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:20 Kick · HOU (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -0.9614536373414658
Yardline 100 35
Elapsed share 0.4777777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1880
Half seconds remaining 80
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 80
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8734530428661693 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.86499/0.87345/0.86131 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation HOU 1.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 22 recorded events Q200:16 Fourth down · TEN (:16) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -0.8954579233784948
Yardline 100 53
Elapsed share 0.4955555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -9
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1816
Half seconds remaining 16
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 16
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.07962353000077177 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07468/ NA/0.07962 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:20 Fourth down · TEN (2:20) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 26 for 11 yards (86-K.Granson). + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -0.3780827214298939
Yardline 100 57
Elapsed share 0.7111111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q405:56 Fourth down · HOU (5:56) 38-K.Kroeger punts 37 yards to TEN 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 24
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -0.1768165954453013
Yardline 100 45
Elapsed share 0.9011111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q400:24 Fourth down · TEN (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 35 for -13 yards (51-W.Anderson). + Fourth down decision cost TEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 19
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -0.122269071777894
Yardline 100 52
Elapsed share 0.9933333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q110:42 Kick · TEN (10:42) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. + Fourth down decision cost TEN 2.86 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TEN
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -4.879952617234996
Yardline 100 12
Elapsed share 0.07166666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 15.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -6.5
Original posteam TEN
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q107:43 Penalty · TEN (7:43) 3-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to HOU 39, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-34-B.Hall, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:51 Penalty · HOU (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on HOU-9-B.Jordan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 18. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:49 Fumble · TEN (1:49) 2-T.Spears left tackle to TEN 37 for -1 yards (94-D.Robinson). FUMBLES (94-D.Robinson), RECOVERED by HOU-5-J.Pitre at TEN 35. + Fumble recoveries above expectation TEN -0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation HOU 0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q210:41 Penalty · HOU (10:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at TEN 22 for 9 yards (26-M.Harris; 18-C.Flott). PENALTY on HOU-13-J.Noel, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 23. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:40 Penalty · HOU (8:40) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:59 Kick · HOU (6:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Fourth down decision cost HOU 0.48 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam HOU
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team HOU
Home team TEN
Away total 22
Home total 15.5
Total line 37.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -6.5
Spread time -1.401240243204364
Yardline 100 7
Elapsed share 0.3836111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 6.5
Original posteam HOU
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q312:53 Penalty · HOU (12:53) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 46 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 21-M.Robinson). PENALTY on HOU-17-J.Wayne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:29 Fumble · HOU (11:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud to TEN 46 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TEN 46. 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-J.Noel to TEN 32 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 29-T.Adams). + Fumble recoveries above expectation TEN -0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation HOU 0.6 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q308:48 Penalty · HOU (8:48) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence HOU Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:37 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q302:49 Penalty · TEN (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 14-C.Tate pushed ob at HOU 15 for 32 yards (2-C.Bullock). PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:09 Kick · HOU 15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. + Extra point points above expectation HOU 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q414:09 Penalty · TEN 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 58 yards from HOU 35 to TEN 7. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 24 yards (9-B.Jordan). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 31. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:21 Penalty · TEN (12:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears pushed ob at HOU 8 for 35 yards (6-R.Blankenship). HOU-5-J.Pitre was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-51-A.Schlottmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 41. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:02 Penalty · TEN (12:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Latham, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:05 Penalty · TEN (10:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm to HOU 33 for 9 yards (27-K.Ramsey). PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:35 Penalty · TEN (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN-75-D.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play. 10-second runoff avoided. + Observed ruling consequence TEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 8:16 PM UTC
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Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 8:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 ba47860112be8b39994f6f66407e13c7f66b505305e778009ba3b522f79b9dffModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: a8a96f6810bf56652ff485a26a25b1be7532b656c836dc14b2ea5ad04ce81834
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 2 · Latest ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 11, 2026, 9:17 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 8:28 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-16
Game seconds remaining 1040
Half seconds remaining 1040
Quarter seconds remaining 140
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.01387707750370896 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01301/ NA/0.01388 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
23
Game seconds remaining 356
Half seconds remaining 356
Quarter seconds remaining 356
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9996745337775732 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99959/0.99959/0.99967 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-23
Quarter seconds remaining 24
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.00003328887913196489 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 3e-05/0e+00/0e+00 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 3342
Half seconds remaining 1542
Quarter seconds remaining 642
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3008322803637409 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30083/0.27222/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TEN 0.07 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
3
Game seconds remaining 2219
Half seconds remaining 419
Quarter seconds remaining 419
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8310328193327161 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83103/0.82622/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation HOU 1.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled