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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: PIT by 2.2; actual result: PIT by 12.
The 9.8-point difference was matched or exceeded in 204 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 75.28%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 PIT minus IND penalty-count difference: -3 versus -0.1 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 601 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: PIT by 3.0; actual result: PIT by 12. The difference was 9 points.
3,502 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Final margin Pittsburgh Steelers by 12
Difference 9 points
Pittsburgh Steelers covered the spread.
3,502 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (48.1%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score PIT by 2.2
Actual final margin PIT by 12
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Pittsburgh Steelers chance to win during the game 145 preplay estimates across 176 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 31 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 2 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 00:30 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 2038 (:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 14-R.Wilson to IND 19 for 11 yards (25-A.Haulcy). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 14-R.Wilson (25-A.Haulcy).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 5.7 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 13:25 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 1021 (13:25) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf [95-A.Adebawore]. PENALTY on IND-7-C.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at IND 18 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on IND awarded PIT a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 6.9 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 176 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 176 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 8-R.Sanchez kicks 55 yards from IND 35 to PIT 10. 10-K.Wetjen ran ob at PIT 35 for 25 yards (55-C.Curry). Play 40 8-R.Sanchez kicks 55 yards from IND 35 to PIT 10. 10-K.Wetjen ran ob at PIT 35 for 25 yards (55-C.Curry).
Q114:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren to PIT 35 for no gain (50-B.Boettcher). Play 68 (14:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren to PIT 35 for no gain (50-B.Boettcher).
Q114:14 (14:14) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 46 for 11 yards (27-J.Walley). PENALTY on PIT-67-B.Hoffman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play. Play 93 (14:14) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 46 for 11 yards (27-J.Walley). PENALTY on PIT-67-B.Hoffman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play.
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 38 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q213:25 Penalty · PIT (13:25) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf [95-A.Adebawore]. PENALTY on IND-7-C.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at IND 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT 12.54 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 2600
Half seconds remaining 800
Quarter seconds remaining 800
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 8:58 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 63cd0cd9a743a83234ae2457d62f9759a193e75b214f32bf4b9272390f8cfda4This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
204 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 601 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Shawn Smith Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 77 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12 accepted penalties for 96.9 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.8 / 47.7 yd per game. Away teams: 6.2 / 49.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Shawn Smith; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Pittsburgh Steelers · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Pittsburgh Steelers · Opponent penalties Opponent IND was charged 9 penalties for 59 yards.
Indianapolis Colts · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Indianapolis Colts · Opponent penalties Opponent PIT was charged 6 penalties for 50 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 145 model estimates across 176 recorded game entries.
31 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (176 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
IND Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence 12.54 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Ruling expected points consequence 3.74 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence 1.17 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Ruling expected points consequence 0.73 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence 0.75 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Ruling expected points consequence 0.18 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
IND Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
IND Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
IND Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence 0.08 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Ruling expected points consequence 0.37 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
PIT Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 2.37 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47587/0.45212/0.44903 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 2.4 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39282/0.36886/0.36061 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27787/0.26803/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30733/0.25858/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37485/ NA/0.41316 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 1.44 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62300/0.60862/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 2.41 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37383/0.34974/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63484/0.49998/0.58895 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0.41 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18497/0.18089/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26607/0.27510/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76134/0.70982/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07268/ NA/0.05091 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0.78 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03668/ NA/0.04446 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94386/0.95444/0.95079 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
IND Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00701/0.00697/0.00439 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
PIT Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.7 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 96th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
IND Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.7 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 96th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
PIT Field goal points above expectation 1.5 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
IND Field goal points above expectation 2.56 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
PIT Extra point points above expectation 0.16 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 63rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
IND Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
PIT Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 176 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
IND Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 176 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
PIT Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.05 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
58 of 58 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 58 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 3.03 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
58 of 58 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 58 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.55 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
47 of 47 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 47 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.59 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
47 of 47 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 47 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
IND Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.51 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
74 of 74 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 74 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
IND Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.65 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
74 of 74 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 74 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
IND Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 35 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
IND Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 35 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q113:45 (13:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 20 for -5 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 127
(13:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 20 for -5 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q113:04 (13:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 20 for no gain (27-J.Walley). FUMBLES (27-J.Walley), and recovers at PIT 20. Play 152 (13:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 20 for no gain (27-J.Walley). FUMBLES (27-J.Walley), and recovers at PIT 20.
Q112:28 (12:28) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to IND 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on PIT-37-R.Nowakowski, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at IND 34. Play 193 (12:28) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to IND 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on PIT-37-R.Nowakowski, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at IND 34.
Q112:21 (12:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 42 for 3 yards (5-J.Ramsey; 56-A.Highsmith). Play 224 (12:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 42 for 3 yards (5-J.Ramsey; 56-A.Highsmith).
Q111:47 (11:47) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end to IND 44 for 2 yards (56-A.Highsmith; 97-C.Heyward). Play 246 (11:47) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end to IND 44 for 2 yards (56-A.Highsmith; 97-C.Heyward).
Q111:03 (11:03) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to PIT 44 for 12 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 268 (11:03) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to PIT 44 for 12 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q110:26 (10:26) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to PIT 45 for -1 yards (94-Y.Black, 6-P.Queen). Play 293 (10:26) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to PIT 45 for -1 yards (94-Y.Black, 6-P.Queen).
Q109:47 (9:47) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren to PIT 39 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 315 (9:47) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren to PIT 39 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q109:06 (9:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 13-L.Treadwell (22-A.Samuel). Play 340 (9:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 13-L.Treadwell (22-A.Samuel).
Q109:02 Timeout #1 by IND at 09:02. Play 381 Timeout #1 by IND at 09:02.
Q109:02 (9:02) 3-S.Shrader 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 363 (9:02) 3-S.Shrader 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q108:57 8-R.Sanchez kicks 65 yards from IND 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 20. Play 390 8-R.Sanchez kicks 65 yards from IND 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 20.
Q108:57 (8:57) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart]. Play 414 (8:57) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].
Q108:45 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 440 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q108:45 9-C.Boswell kicks 62 yards from PIT 35 to IND 3. 6-A.Gould ran ob at PIT 43 for 54 yards (40-D.Slaughter). Play 455 9-C.Boswell kicks 62 yards from PIT 35 to IND 3. 6-A.Gould ran ob at PIT 43 for 54 yards (40-D.Slaughter).
Q108:35 (8:35) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 85-A.Ogletree to PIT 39 for 4 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 490 (8:35) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 85-A.Ogletree to PIT 39 for 4 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q107:57 (7:57) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to PIT 38 for 1 yard (41-P.Wilson). Play 515 (7:57) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to PIT 38 for 1 yard (41-P.Wilson).
Q107:15 (7:15) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to PIT 38 for no gain (5-J.Ramsey). Penalty on IND-13-L.Treadwell, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. Play 542 (7:15) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to PIT 38 for no gain (5-J.Ramsey). Penalty on IND-13-L.Treadwell, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q107:00 (7:00) 3-S.Shrader 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 595 (7:00) 3-S.Shrader 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q106:55 8-R.Sanchez kicks 59 yards from IND 35 to PIT 6. 10-K.Wetjen MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 5. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 20 for 15 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). Play 615 8-R.Sanchez kicks 59 yards from IND 35 to PIT 6. 10-K.Wetjen MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 5. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 20 for 15 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
Q106:49 (6:49) 30-J.Warren left end to PIT 22 for 2 yards (90-G.Stewart; 51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 645 (6:49) 30-J.Warren left end to PIT 22 for 2 yards (90-G.Stewart; 51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q106:08 (6:08) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 35 for 13 yards (25-A.Haulcy; 50-B.Boettcher). Play 667 (6:08) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 35 for 13 yards (25-A.Haulcy; 50-B.Boettcher).
Q105:28 (5:28) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 39 for 4 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on PIT-80-D.Washington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play. Play 692 (5:28) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 39 for 4 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on PIT-80-D.Washington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play.
Q105:03 (5:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 32 for 7 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 25-A.Haulcy). Play 730 (5:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 32 for 7 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 25-A.Haulcy).
Q104:22 (4:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 17-G.Bernard. PENALTY on IND-97-L.Latu, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 32 - No Play. Play 768 (4:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 17-G.Bernard. PENALTY on IND-97-L.Latu, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 32 - No Play.
Q104:17 (4:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles right end to PIT 43 for 6 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 27-J.Walley). Play 803 (4:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles right end to PIT 43 for 6 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 27-J.Walley).
Q103:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 46 for 3 yards (99-D.Buckner; 58-A.Ajiake). Play 825 (3:29) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 46 for 3 yards (99-D.Buckner; 58-A.Ajiake).
Q102:48 (2:48) 31-L.Nichols up the middle to IND 48 for 6 yards (99-D.Buckner). Play 847 (2:48) 31-L.Nichols up the middle to IND 48 for 6 yards (99-D.Buckner).
Q102:06 (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to IND 38 for 10 yards (91-J.Tuimoloau; 51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 869 (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to IND 38 for 10 yards (91-J.Tuimoloau; 51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q101:21 (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to IND 35 for 3 yards (53-C.Allen). Play 894 (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to IND 35 for 3 yards (53-C.Allen).
Q100:34 (:34) 4-D.Metcalf left end pushed ob at IND 24 for 11 yards (1-A.Gardner). Play 919 (:34) 4-D.Metcalf left end pushed ob at IND 24 for 11 yards (1-A.Gardner).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 949 Q215:00 (15:00) 17-G.Bernard left end to IND 20 for 4 yards (27-J.Walley). Play 969 (15:00) 17-G.Bernard left end to IND 20 for 4 yards (27-J.Walley).
Q214:13 (14:13) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to IND 18 for 2 yards (0-C.Bynum; 53-C.Allen). Play 991 (14:13) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to IND 18 for 2 yards (0-C.Bynum; 53-C.Allen).
Q213:25 (13:25) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf [95-A.Adebawore]. PENALTY on IND-7-C.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at IND 18 - No Play. Play 1021 (13:25) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf [95-A.Adebawore]. PENALTY on IND-7-C.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at IND 18 - No Play.
Q213:20 (13:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1055 (13:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q213:17 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 1081 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q213:17 9-C.Boswell kicks 62 yards from PIT 35 to IND 3. 20-S.McGowan to IND 29 for 26 yards (26-B.Echols). Play 1096 9-C.Boswell kicks 62 yards from PIT 35 to IND 3. 20-S.McGowan to IND 29 for 26 yards (26-B.Echols).
Q213:12 (13:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on IND-71-M.Goncalves, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 29 - No Play. Play 1126 (13:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on IND-71-M.Goncalves, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 29 - No Play.
Q213:12 (13:12) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 2-J.Downs to PIT 34 for 42 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 1150 (13:12) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 2-J.Downs to PIT 34 for 42 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q212:28 (12:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Westbrook-Ikhine. Play 1175 (12:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.
Q212:22 (12:22) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen pushed ob at PIT 25 for 9 yards (22-A.Samuel). Play 1203 (12:22) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen pushed ob at PIT 25 for 9 yards (22-A.Samuel).
Q211:50 (11:50) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 84-T.Warren (5-J.Ramsey). Play 1233 (11:50) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 84-T.Warren (5-J.Ramsey).
Q211:44 (11:44) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 23 for 2 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 1270 (11:44) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 23 for 2 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q211:02 (11:02) 20-S.McGowan left tackle to PIT 24 for -1 yards (41-P.Wilson, 96-G.Rubio). Play 1292 (11:02) 20-S.McGowan left tackle to PIT 24 for -1 yards (41-P.Wilson, 96-G.Rubio).
Q210:21 (10:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell to PIT 2 for 22 yards (22-A.Samuel; 5-J.Ramsey). Play 1314 (10:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell to PIT 2 for 22 yards (22-A.Samuel; 5-J.Ramsey).
Q209:42 (9:42) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (6-P.Queen; 69-S.Joseph). Play 1339 (9:42) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (6-P.Queen; 69-S.Joseph).
Q209:04 (9:04) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor right tackle to PIT 1 for no gain (95-K.Benton). Play 1361 (9:04) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor right tackle to PIT 1 for no gain (95-K.Benton).
Q208:27 (8:27) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 1 for no gain (94-Y.Black; 6-P.Queen). Play 1385 (8:27) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 1 for no gain (94-Y.Black; 6-P.Queen).
Q207:48 (7:48) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1407 (7:48) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q207:43 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 1430 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q207:43 8-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to PIT 5. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 32 for 27 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). Play 1445 8-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to PIT 5. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 32 for 27 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
Q207:37 (7:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 37 for 5 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 27-J.Walley). Play 1475 (7:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 37 for 5 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 27-J.Walley).
Q206:55 (6:55) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 37 for no gain (51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 1500 (6:55) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 37 for no gain (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q206:14 (6:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard (97-L.Latu). Play 1522 (6:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard (97-L.Latu).
Q206:10 (6:10) 19-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to IND 4, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. PENALTY on IND-34-K.Gushiken, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at IND 4. Play 1545 (6:10) 19-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to IND 4, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. PENALTY on IND-34-K.Gushiken, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at IND 4.
Q206:03 (6:03) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell pushed ob at IND 14 for 12 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 1580 (6:03) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell pushed ob at IND 14 for 12 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q205:28 (5:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 13-L.Treadwell. Play 1617 (5:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 13-L.Treadwell.
Q205:21 (5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor pushed ob at IND 38 for 24 yards (3-J.Brisker; 95-K.Benton). Play 1640 (5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor pushed ob at IND 38 for 24 yards (3-J.Brisker; 95-K.Benton).
Q204:39 (4:39) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 40 for 2 yards (69-S.Joseph). Play 1665 (4:39) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 40 for 2 yards (69-S.Joseph).
Q203:54 (3:54) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 10-K.Allen (23-D.Everette). Play 1687 (3:54) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 10-K.Allen (23-D.Everette).
Q203:50 (3:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren to IND 41 for 1 yard (5-J.Ramsey; 23-D.Everette). Play 1710 (3:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren to IND 41 for 1 yard (5-J.Ramsey; 23-D.Everette).
Q202:59 (2:59) (Punt formation) PENALTY on IND, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 41 - No Play. Play 1740 (2:59) (Punt formation) PENALTY on IND, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 41 - No Play.
Q202:52 (2:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 12 for no gain (80-D.Burks). Play 1768 (2:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 12 for no gain (80-D.Burks).
Q202:42 (2:42) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 17-G.Bernard. Play 1794 (2:42) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 17-G.Bernard.
Q202:36 (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren to PIT 17 for 5 yards (94-J.Tillery). Play 1824 (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren to PIT 17 for 5 yards (94-J.Tillery).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 26 for 9 yards (1-A.Gardner). Play 1849 (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 26 for 9 yards (1-A.Gardner).
Q201:36 (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right. Play 1881 (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right.
Q201:33 (1:33) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 47 for 21 yards (7-C.Ward). Play 1904 (1:33) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 47 for 21 yards (7-C.Ward).
Q201:03 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 48 for 1 yard (58-A.Ajiake). Play 1929 (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 48 for 1 yard (58-A.Ajiake).
Q200:56 Timeout #1 by PIT at 00:56. Play 1966 Timeout #1 by PIT at 00:56.
Q200:56 (:56) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to IND 38 for 14 yards (0-C.Bynum). Play 1954 (:56) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to IND 38 for 14 yards (0-C.Bynum).
Q200:39 (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left end to IND 30 for 8 yards (25-A.Haulcy). Play 1986 (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left end to IND 30 for 8 yards (25-A.Haulcy).
Q200:33 Timeout #2 by PIT at 00:33. Play 2020 Timeout #2 by PIT at 00:33.
Q200:33 (:33) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 88-P.Freiermuth. Play 2008 (:33) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 88-P.Freiermuth.
Q200:30 (:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 14-R.Wilson to IND 19 for 11 yards (25-A.Haulcy). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 14-R.Wilson (25-A.Haulcy). Play 2038 (:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 14-R.Wilson to IND 19 for 11 yards (25-A.Haulcy). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 14-R.Wilson (25-A.Haulcy).
Q200:25 (:25) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 2103 (:25) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q200:21 9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to IND 2. 20-S.McGowan to IND 24 for 22 yards (44-C.Bruener). PENALTY on IND-85-A.Ogletree, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 24. Play 2130 9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to IND 2. 20-S.McGowan to IND 24 for 22 yards (44-C.Bruener). PENALTY on IND-85-A.Ogletree, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 24.
Q200:15 (:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 19 for 5 yards (95-K.Benton). Play 2171 (:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 19 for 5 yards (95-K.Benton).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2193 Q315:00 9-C.Boswell kicks 61 yards from PIT 35 to IND 4. 20-S.McGowan to IND 40 for 36 yards (55-C.Holcomb). Play 2213 9-C.Boswell kicks 61 yards from PIT 35 to IND 4. 20-S.McGowan to IND 40 for 36 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
Q314:55 (14:55) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 13-L.Treadwell [94-Y.Black]. PENALTY on PIT-56-A.Highsmith, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at IND 40 - No Play. Play 2236 (14:55) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 13-L.Treadwell [94-Y.Black]. PENALTY on PIT-56-A.Highsmith, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at IND 40 - No Play.
Q314:50 (14:50) 20-S.McGowan right end to PIT 45 for 10 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 2275 (14:50) 20-S.McGowan right end to PIT 45 for 10 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q314:10 (14:10) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to PIT 40 for 5 yards (22-A.Samuel). Play 2297 (14:10) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to PIT 40 for 5 yards (22-A.Samuel).
Q313:26 (13:26) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren to PIT 34 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 2332 (13:26) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren to PIT 34 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q312:49 (12:49) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan left tackle to PIT 32 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward; 3-J.Brisker). Play 2357 (12:49) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan left tackle to PIT 32 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward; 3-J.Brisker).
Q312:08 (12:08) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 84-T.Warren pushed ob at PIT 3 for 29 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 2379 (12:08) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 84-T.Warren pushed ob at PIT 3 for 29 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q311:48 (11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to PIT 2 for 1 yard (96-G.Rubio; 33-J.Sawyer). Play 2414 (11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to PIT 2 for 1 yard (96-G.Rubio; 33-J.Sawyer).
Q311:12 (11:12) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard to PIT 4 for -2 yards (41-P.Wilson, 6-P.Queen). Play 2436 (11:12) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard to PIT 4 for -2 yards (41-P.Wilson, 6-P.Queen).
Q310:32 (10:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Allen. Play 2460 (10:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Allen.
Q310:25 (10:25) 3-S.Shrader 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 2483 (10:25) 3-S.Shrader 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q310:23 8-R.Sanchez kicks 43 yards from IND 35 to PIT 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on IND-8-R.Sanchez, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PIT 40. Play 2503 8-R.Sanchez kicks 43 yards from IND 35 to PIT 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on IND-8-R.Sanchez, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PIT 40.
Q310:23 (10:23) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 45 for 5 yards (25-A.Haulcy). Play 2544 (10:23) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 45 for 5 yards (25-A.Haulcy).
Q309:45 (9:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-B.Smith to IND 49 for 6 yards (58-A.Ajiake) [99-D.Buckner]. PENALTY on PIT-54-Z.Frazier, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 45 - No Play. Play 2566 (9:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-B.Smith to IND 49 for 6 yards (58-A.Ajiake) [99-D.Buckner]. PENALTY on PIT-54-Z.Frazier, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 45 - No Play.
Q309:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 40 for 5 yards (58-A.Ajiake). Play 2602 (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 40 for 5 yards (58-A.Ajiake).
Q308:31 (8:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 49 for 9 yards (27-J.Walley). Play 2627 (8:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 49 for 9 yards (27-J.Walley).
Q307:54 (7:54) Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner; 90-G.Stewart). Play 2652 (7:54) Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner; 90-G.Stewart).
Q307:16 (7:16) 30-J.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2676 (7:16) 30-J.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q307:06 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 2699 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q307:06 9-C.Boswell kicks 59 yards from PIT 35 to IND 6. 6-A.Gould to IND 33 for 27 yards (26-B.Echols; 37-R.Nowakowski). Play 2714 9-C.Boswell kicks 59 yards from PIT 35 to IND 6. 6-A.Gould to IND 33 for 27 yards (26-B.Echols; 37-R.Nowakowski).
Q307:00 (7:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to PIT 47 for 20 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Play 2744 (7:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren to PIT 47 for 20 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Q306:21 (6:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor to PIT 42 for 5 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 2769 (6:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor to PIT 42 for 5 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q305:37 (5:37) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to PIT 38 for 4 yards (69-S.Joseph; 94-Y.Black). Play 2794 (5:37) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to PIT 38 for 4 yards (69-S.Joseph; 94-Y.Black).
Q304:59 (4:59) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 36 for 2 yards (3-J.Brisker; 6-P.Queen). Play 2816 (4:59) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 36 for 2 yards (3-J.Brisker; 6-P.Queen).
Q304:16 (4:16) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren ran ob at PIT 27 for 9 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [41-P.Wilson]. Play 2838 (4:16) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren ran ob at PIT 27 for 9 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [41-P.Wilson].
Q303:46 (3:46) 20-S.McGowan up the middle to PIT 24 for 3 yards (94-Y.Black; 6-P.Queen). Play 2868 (3:46) 20-S.McGowan up the middle to PIT 24 for 3 yards (94-Y.Black; 6-P.Queen).
Q303:08 (3:08) 20-S.McGowan left guard to PIT 22 for 2 yards (5-J.Ramsey; 96-G.Rubio). Play 2890 (3:08) 20-S.McGowan left guard to PIT 22 for 2 yards (5-J.Ramsey; 96-G.Rubio).
Q302:27 (2:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 2-J.Downs. Play 2912 (2:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 2-J.Downs.
Q302:23 (2:23) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 13-L.Treadwell (22-A.Samuel). Play 2935 (2:23) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 13-L.Treadwell (22-A.Samuel).
Q302:17 (2:17) 3-S.Shrader 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 2963 (2:17) 3-S.Shrader 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q302:13 8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 20 for 17 yards (30-H.Wohler). Play 2983 8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 20 for 17 yards (30-H.Wohler).
Q302:08 (2:08) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf. Play 3013 (2:08) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf.
Q302:04 (2:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Washington (97-L.Latu). Play 3036 (2:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Washington (97-L.Latu).
Q302:01 (2:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 10 for -10 yards (99-D.Buckner). Play 3059 (2:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 10 for -10 yards (99-D.Buckner).
Q301:23 (1:23) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. Play 3079 (1:23) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.
Q301:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 46 for 7 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 6-P.Queen). Play 3101 (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 46 for 7 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 6-P.Queen).
Q300:36 (:36) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 48 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson; 33-J.Sawyer). Play 3133 (:36) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 48 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson; 33-J.Sawyer).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3155 Q415:00 (15:00) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox ran ob at PIT 45 for 7 yards. Play 3175 (15:00) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox ran ob at PIT 45 for 7 yards.
Q414:27 (14:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell. Play 3205 (14:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell.
Q414:22 (14:22) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 10-K.Allen to PIT 37 for 8 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 3228 (14:22) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 10-K.Allen to PIT 37 for 8 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q413:44 (13:44) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end pushed ob at PIT 34 for 3 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 3253 (13:44) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end pushed ob at PIT 34 for 3 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q413:12 (13:12) 28-J.Taylor right end to PIT 30 for 4 yards (33-J.Sawyer). Play 3275 (13:12) 28-J.Taylor right end to PIT 30 for 4 yards (33-J.Sawyer).
Q412:35 (12:35) 28-J.Taylor left tackle pushed ob at PIT 10 for 20 yards (22-A.Samuel). Play 3297 (12:35) 28-J.Taylor left tackle pushed ob at PIT 10 for 20 yards (22-A.Samuel).
Q412:00 (12:00) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 13-L.Treadwell (3-J.Brisker). Play 3324 (12:00) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 13-L.Treadwell (3-J.Brisker).
Q411:55 (11:55) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 28-J.Taylor. Play 3352 (11:55) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 28-J.Taylor.
Q411:50 (11:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Warren (22-A.Samuel). Play 3375 (11:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Warren (22-A.Samuel).
Q411:46 (11:46) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Play 3398 (11:46) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q411:42 8-R.Sanchez kicks 55 yards from IND 35 to PIT 10. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 36 for 26 yards (55-C.Curry; 58-A.Ajiake). Play 3418 8-R.Sanchez kicks 55 yards from IND 35 to PIT 10. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 36 for 26 yards (55-C.Curry; 58-A.Ajiake).
Q411:38 (11:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 42 for 6 yards (52-G.Gumbs). Play 3448 (11:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 42 for 6 yards (52-G.Gumbs).
Q410:55 (10:55) 30-J.Warren right tackle to PIT 44 for 2 yards (7-C.Ward). Play 3477 (10:55) 30-J.Warren right tackle to PIT 44 for 2 yards (7-C.Ward).
Q410:11 (10:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard ran ob at IND 31 for 25 yards (25-A.Haulcy). Play 3499 (10:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard ran ob at IND 31 for 25 yards (25-A.Haulcy).
Q409:31 (9:31) 30-J.Warren up the middle to IND 22 for 9 yards (90-G.Stewart). Play 3537 (9:31) 30-J.Warren up the middle to IND 22 for 9 yards (90-G.Stewart).
Q408:49 (8:49) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 22 for no gain (27-J.Walley; 90-G.Stewart). Play 3559 (8:49) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 22 for no gain (27-J.Walley; 90-G.Stewart).
Q408:03 (8:03) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 88-P.Freiermuth. Play 3581 (8:03) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 88-P.Freiermuth.
Q407:56 (7:56) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 21 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner). Play 3604 (7:56) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 21 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner).
Q407:31 (7:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 17 for 4 yards (90-G.Stewart; 53-C.Allen). Play 3626 (7:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 17 for 4 yards (90-G.Stewart; 53-C.Allen).
Q406:48 (6:48) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-G.Bernard. Play 3648 (6:48) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-G.Bernard.
Q406:40 (6:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3671 (6:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q406:35 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 3697 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q406:35 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 35. Play 3712 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 35.
Q406:35 (6:35) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor to IND 43 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson; 5-J.Ramsey). Play 3736 (6:35) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor to IND 43 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson; 5-J.Ramsey).
Q406:00 (6:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 42 for -1 yards (97-C.Heyward). Play 3761 (6:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 42 for -1 yards (97-C.Heyward).
Q405:17 (5:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen (95-K.Benton). Play 3781 (5:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen (95-K.Benton).
Q405:13 (5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to IND 46 for 4 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 3804 (5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to IND 46 for 4 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q404:42 (4:42) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Burks (23-D.Everette). IND-75-J.Travis was injured during the play. Play 3829 (4:42) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Burks (23-D.Everette). IND-75-J.Travis was injured during the play.
Q404:34 (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 20-S.McGowan pushed ob at IND 49 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 3852 (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 20-S.McGowan pushed ob at IND 49 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q404:28 (4:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs pushed ob at PIT 43 for 8 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on IND-60-T.Bortolini, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 49 - No Play. Play 3892 (4:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs pushed ob at PIT 43 for 8 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on IND-60-T.Bortolini, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 49 - No Play.
Q404:23 (4:23) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left [95-K.Benton]. Play 3933 (4:23) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left [95-K.Benton].
Q404:17 (4:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 2-J.Downs (41-P.Wilson). Play 3956 (4:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 2-J.Downs (41-P.Wilson).
Q404:12 (4:12) 30-J.Warren left tackle to IND 38 for 1 yard (0-C.Bynum). PENALTY on PIT-76-T.Fautanu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play. Play 3979 (4:12) 30-J.Warren left tackle to IND 38 for 1 yard (0-C.Bynum). PENALTY on PIT-76-T.Fautanu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play.
Q404:06 (4:06) 30-J.Warren right guard to IND 43 for 6 yards (99-D.Buckner; 7-C.Ward). Play 4019 (4:06) 30-J.Warren right guard to IND 43 for 6 yards (99-D.Buckner; 7-C.Ward).
Q404:00 Timeout #1 by IND at 04:00. Play 4053 Timeout #1 by IND at 04:00.
Q404:00 (4:00) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to IND 36 for 7 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). Play 4041 (4:00) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to IND 36 for 7 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Q403:52 Timeout #2 by IND at 03:52. Play 4085 Timeout #2 by IND at 03:52.
Q403:52 Timeout #1 by PIT at 03:52. Play 4092 Timeout #1 by PIT at 03:52.
Q403:52 (3:52) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left tackle to IND 36 for no gain (25-A.Haulcy). Play 4073 (3:52) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left tackle to IND 36 for no gain (25-A.Haulcy).
Q403:47 Timeout #3 by IND at 03:47. Play 4121 Timeout #3 by IND at 03:47.
Q403:47 (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 4109 (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q403:43 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 35. Play 4136 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 35.
Q403:43 (3:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 10-K.Allen to IND 49 for 14 yards (5-J.Ramsey). ** Injury Update: IND-75-J.Travis has returned to the game. Play 4153 (3:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 10-K.Allen to IND 49 for 14 yards (5-J.Ramsey). ** Injury Update: IND-75-J.Travis has returned to the game.
Q403:20 (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to PIT 41 for 10 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 4178 (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to PIT 41 for 10 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q402:58 (2:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 2-J.Downs (3-J.Brisker). Play 4203 (2:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 2-J.Downs (3-J.Brisker).
Q402:52 (2:52) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell. Play 4226 (2:52) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell.
Q402:46 (2:46) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Burks. Play 4252 (2:46) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Burks.
Q402:41 (2:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on IND, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 41 - No Play. Play 4275 (2:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on IND, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 41 - No Play.
Q402:41 (2:41) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Allen (22-A.Samuel). Play 4299 (2:41) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Allen (22-A.Samuel).
Q402:35 (2:35) 30-J.Warren up the middle to IND 48 for 6 yards (0-C.Bynum). Play 4322 (2:35) 30-J.Warren up the middle to IND 48 for 6 yards (0-C.Bynum).
Q402:00 (2:00) 30-J.Warren right guard to IND 43 for 5 yards (7-C.Ward; 52-G.Gumbs). Play 4344 (2:00) 30-J.Warren right guard to IND 43 for 5 yards (7-C.Ward; 52-G.Gumbs).
Q401:14 (1:14) 2-M.Rudolph kneels to IND 44 for -1 yards. Play 4373 (1:14) 2-M.Rudolph kneels to IND 44 for -1 yards.
Q400:35 (:35) 2-M.Rudolph kneels to IND 45 for -1 yards. Play 4395 (:35) 2-M.Rudolph kneels to IND 45 for -1 yards.
2
Game seconds remaining 2600
Half seconds remaining 800
Quarter seconds remaining 800
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PIT 3.74 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 2600
Half seconds remaining 800
Quarter seconds remaining 800
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 4
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Game seconds remaining 2600
Half seconds remaining 800
Quarter seconds remaining 800
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:12 Penalty · IND (13:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on IND-71-M.Goncalves, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT 1.17 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 15
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 76
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 2592
Half seconds remaining 792
Quarter seconds remaining 792
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 10
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 2592
Half seconds remaining 792
Quarter seconds remaining 792
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PIT 0.73 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 15
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 76
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 2592
Half seconds remaining 792
Quarter seconds remaining 792
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 10
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -8
Game seconds remaining 2592
Half seconds remaining 792
Quarter seconds remaining 792
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q404:17 Fourth down · IND (4:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 2-J.Downs (41-P.Wilson). + Fourth down decision cost IND 0.78 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.07310692702468502
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.9286111111111112
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -9
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 257
Half seconds remaining 257
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 257
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.04446492261961519 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03668/ NA/0.04446 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:59 Penalty · IND (2:59) (Punt formation) PENALTY on IND, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT 0.75 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 12
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1979
Half seconds remaining 179
Quarter seconds remaining 179
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 7
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1979
Half seconds remaining 179
Quarter seconds remaining 179
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PIT 0.18 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 12
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1979
Half seconds remaining 179
Quarter seconds remaining 179
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 7
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -1
Game seconds remaining 1979
Half seconds remaining 179
Quarter seconds remaining 179
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:41 Penalty · IND (2:41) (Shotgun) PENALTY on IND, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT 0.08 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 15
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -12
Game seconds remaining 161
Half seconds remaining 161
Quarter seconds remaining 161
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 10
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 41
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -12
Game seconds remaining 161
Half seconds remaining 161
Quarter seconds remaining 161
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PIT 0.37 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 15
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 46
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -12
Game seconds remaining 161
Half seconds remaining 161
Quarter seconds remaining 161
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 10
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 41
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -12
Game seconds remaining 161
Half seconds remaining 161
Quarter seconds remaining 161
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:48 Fourth down · IND (7:48) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.6829130651514382
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.37
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -8
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2268
Half seconds remaining 468
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 468
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3073319960845217 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30733/0.25858/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:52 Fourth down · IND (2:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 12 for no gain (80-D.Burks). + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.4915082273729476
Yardline 100 64
Elapsed share 0.4522222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -1
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1972
Half seconds remaining 172
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 172
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4131605076197034 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37485/ NA/0.41316 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:54 Fourth down · PIT (7:54) Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner; 90-G.Stewart). + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.2529101365972467
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.6183333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 1
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1374
Half seconds remaining 1374
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 474
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6348449134253275 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63484/0.49998/0.58895 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q411:46 Kick · IND (11:46) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.1203990945014895
Yardline 100 10
Elapsed share 0.8038888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -5
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 706
Half seconds remaining 706
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 706
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2750988711513176 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26607/0.27510/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation IND 2.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q407:56 Fourth down · PIT (7:56) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 21 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner). + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.09324742615044025
Yardline 100 22
Elapsed share 0.8677777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 2
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 476
Half seconds remaining 476
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 476
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7613435565207411 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76134/0.70982/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q405:13 Fourth down · IND (5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to IND 46 for 4 yards (23-D.Everette). + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.07780030452875421
Yardline 100 58
Elapsed share 0.9130555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -9
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 313
Half seconds remaining 313
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 313
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.07267617626349228 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07268/ NA/0.05091 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:47 Kick · PIT (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.07071019687503842
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.9369444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 9
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 227
Half seconds remaining 227
Away timeouts remaining 0
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 227
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9544426679109552 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94386/0.95444/0.95079 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PIT 1.5 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 26 recorded events Q114:14 Penalty · PIT (14:14) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 46 for 11 yards (27-J.Walley). PENALTY on PIT-67-B.Hoffman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:04 Fumble · PIT (13:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 20 for no gain (27-J.Walley). FUMBLES (27-J.Walley), and recovers at PIT 20. + Fumble recoveries above expectation PIT 0.7 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation IND -0.7 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:28 Penalty · PIT (12:28) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to IND 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on PIT-37-R.Nowakowski, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at IND 34. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:02 Kick · IND (9:02) 3-S.Shrader 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Fourth down decision cost IND 2.37 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 2.015433907427566
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.09944444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q108:45 Kick · PIT 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Extra point points above expectation PIT 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q107:15 Fourth down · IND (7:15) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to PIT 38 for no gain (5-J.Ramsey). Penalty on IND-13-L.Treadwell, Offensive Pass Interference, declined. + Observed ruling consequence IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:00 Kick · IND (7:00) 3-S.Shrader 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Fourth down decision cost IND 2.4 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 1.759938658530095
Yardline 100 38
Elapsed share 0.1333333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q105:28 Penalty · PIT (5:28) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 39 for 4 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on PIT-80-D.Washington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:22 Penalty · PIT (4:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 17-G.Bernard. PENALTY on IND-97-L.Latu, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:17 Kick · PIT 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Extra point points above expectation PIT 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q211:44 Fourth down · IND (11:44) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 23 for 2 yards (23-D.Everette). + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.8876608903958136
Yardline 100 25
Elapsed share 0.3044444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q207:43 Kick · IND 3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Extra point points above expectation IND 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:10 Penalty · PIT (6:10) 19-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to IND 4, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. PENALTY on IND-34-K.Gushiken, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at IND 4. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:25 Kick · PIT (:25) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 1.44 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.417441888519365
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.4930555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q200:21 Penalty · IND 9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to IND 2. 20-S.McGowan to IND 24 for 22 yards (44-C.Bruener). PENALTY on IND-85-A.Ogletree, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 24. + Observed ruling consequence IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:55 Penalty · IND (14:55) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 13-L.Treadwell [94-Y.Black]. PENALTY on PIT-56-A.Highsmith, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at IND 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:25 Kick · IND (10:25) 3-S.Shrader 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Fourth down decision cost IND 2.41 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.2991101834691784
Yardline 100 4
Elapsed share 0.5763888888888888
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q310:23 Penalty · PIT 8-R.Sanchez kicks 43 yards from IND 35 to PIT 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on IND-8-R.Sanchez, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PIT 40. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:45 Penalty · PIT (9:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-B.Smith to IND 49 for 6 yards (58-A.Ajiake) [99-D.Buckner]. PENALTY on PIT-54-Z.Frazier, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:06 Kick · PIT 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Extra point points above expectation PIT 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q302:17 Kick · IND (2:17) 3-S.Shrader 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. + Fourth down decision cost IND 0.41 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.1739190202243649
Yardline 100 22
Elapsed share 0.7119444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q301:23 Fourth down · PIT (1:23) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. + Fourth down decision cost PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:35 Kick · PIT 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Extra point points above expectation PIT 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q404:28 Penalty · IND (4:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs pushed ob at PIT 43 for 8 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on IND-60-T.Bortolini, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence IND Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:12 Penalty · PIT (4:12) 30-J.Warren left tackle to IND 38 for 1 yard (0-C.Bynum). PENALTY on PIT-76-T.Fautanu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:41 Fourth down · IND (2:41) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Allen (22-A.Samuel). + Fourth down decision cost IND 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam IND
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team IND
Home team PIT
Away total 19.25
Home total 22.25
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3
Spread time 0.06571035060514054
Yardline 100 46
Elapsed share 0.9552777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam IND
Home receive 2h ko 0
nflverse-team-stats Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 160870855781141553c2160785280eddbd2d358b0f57ca161b36e9342a3d1e00
nflverse-raw-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0e538450ee0c7203ffbcf548680a75b2f5f526adc2a7ab4178377008e41dfd70Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 25304fac68035ae17fc13bff36d59d95d3e99070a5f20e3b237ae742f25556e1
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 1 · Latest ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 9:24 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 3242
Half seconds remaining 1442
Quarter seconds remaining 542
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4758705287703413 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47587/0.45212/0.44903 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation IND 2.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-4
Game seconds remaining 3120
Half seconds remaining 1320
Quarter seconds remaining 420
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3928248632176561 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39282/0.36886/0.36061 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation IND 2.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
-8
Game seconds remaining 2504
Half seconds remaining 704
Quarter seconds remaining 704
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2778697986893044 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27787/0.26803/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
1
Game seconds remaining 1825
Quarter seconds remaining 25
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6230009688546936 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.62300/0.60862/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PIT 1.5 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-4
Game seconds remaining 1525
Half seconds remaining 1525
Quarter seconds remaining 625
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3738323356777229 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37383/0.34974/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation IND 2.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-8
Game seconds remaining 1037
Half seconds remaining 1037
Quarter seconds remaining 137
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1849706196894613 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18497/0.18089/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation IND 2.56 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-12
Game seconds remaining 161
Half seconds remaining 161
Quarter seconds remaining 161
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.007005557943217705 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00701/0.00697/0.00439 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled