The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Penalty patterns were this unusual in 8 of 779 comparison games.
How this rating was calculated
Hmm (3/5): The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Result versus box score
Fair · 1/5
Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: NE by 16.5; actual result: NE by 28.
The 11.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 133 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 49.2%
Penalty pattern
Hmm · 3/5
Combined penalty yards: 217 versus 96.7 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 8 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 3.46%
Result versus spread
Fair · 1/5
Recorded spread: NE by 3.5; actual result: NE by 28. The difference was 24.5 points.
529 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 21.85%
Penalties extending one drive
Fair · 1/5
No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds
Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.
Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
529 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (7.3%).
Where this comparison comes from
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
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Notable plays 1+
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 04:35Recorded game event
New England Patriots · Play 3224
(4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LV 16 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LV awarded NE a first down on third down; call correctness requires review.
Estimated chance to win moved 0.5 percentage points across this play.
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Q114:06(14:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Benson.
CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 43Optional calculations for individual plays.+
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q104:00Penalty · NE(4:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.+
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.6 accepted penalties for 97 yards across both teams.
Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee
LV
NE
Games
7
4
Wins–losses–ties
3–4–0
3–1–0
Team penalties per game
5.6 / 45.3 yd
6.5 / 53.5 yd
Referee comparison details
Home teams: 5.6 / 45.3 yd per game. Away teams: 6 / 51.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Craig Wrolstad; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline.
The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away.
Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome.
Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting.
Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled.
These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
New England PatriotsHistorical context
Winning-profile context
NE won. Prior matching team-games: 336 wins, 435 losses, 3 ties among 774 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
At least 100 penalty yards
336 / 774prior matching team-games were wins
435 losses · 3 ties among the matches 14,512 team-games checked · 1999–2025 seasons
Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
About this chart
146 model estimates across 175 recorded game entries.
29 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (175 entries)
New England Patriots chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Q113:23(13:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (5-E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at NE 25 - No Play.Play 177
(13:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (5-E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at NE 25 - No Play.
Q111:238-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.Play 319
8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q108:29(8:29) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.Play 490
(8:29) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.
Q108:1914-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NE 6. 18-K.Williams pushed ob at NE 26 for 20 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 26.Play 565
14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NE 6. 18-K.Williams pushed ob at NE 26 for 20 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 26.
Q105:42(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at LV 33 for 15 yards. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play.Play 705
(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at LV 33 for 15 yards. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play.
Q104:00(4:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.Play 798
(4:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.
Q100:12(:12) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward right guard to LV 38 for 2 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at LV 36 - No Play.Play 1081
(:12) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward right guard to LV 38 for 2 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at LV 36 - No Play.
Q214:56(14:56) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to NE 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 14 yards (47-A.Ward; 34-C.Heyward). PENALTY on LV-93-P.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 23.Play 1164
(14:56) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to NE 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 14 yards (47-A.Ward; 34-C.Heyward). PENALTY on LV-93-P.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 23.
Q212:42(12:42) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play.Play 1300
(12:42) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play.
Q212:34(12:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to NE 43 for 4 yards. Lateral to 32-T.Henderson pushed ob at LV 45 for 12 yards (17-N.Dean).Play 1345
(12:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to NE 43 for 4 yards. Lateral to 32-T.Henderson pushed ob at LV 45 for 12 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q208:41(8:41) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on LV-58-J.Powers-Johnson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at LV 45 - No Play.Play 1645
(8:41) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on LV-58-J.Powers-Johnson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at LV 45 - No Play.
Q204:33(4:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined.Play 1883
(4:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q200:28(:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-17-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined.Play 2189
(:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-17-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q200:18(:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 22 for -9 yards (91-E.Ponder). FUMBLES (91-E.Ponder) [91-E.Ponder], touched at LV 20, recovered by LV-87-M.Mayer at LV 20.Play 2271
(:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 22 for -9 yards (91-E.Ponder). FUMBLES (91-E.Ponder) [91-E.Ponder], touched at LV 20, recovered by LV-87-M.Mayer at LV 20.
Q314:31(14:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to LV 42 for 13 yards (5-E.Stokes). Penalty on LV-35-H.Masses, Illegal Contact, declined.Play 2374
(14:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to LV 42 for 13 yards (5-E.Stokes). Penalty on LV-35-H.Masses, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q314:07(14:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.Play 2410
(14:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.
Q314:02(14:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 19 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-18-K.Williams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25 - No Play.Play 2444
(14:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 19 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-18-K.Williams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25 - No Play.
Q311:38(11:38) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at NE 25.Play 2645
(11:38) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at NE 25.
Q311:26(11:26) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 21 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker; 44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NE 13 - No Play.Play 2682
(11:26) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 21 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker; 44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NE 13 - No Play.
Q309:17(9:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 27 for -3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.Play 2901
(9:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NE 27 for -3 yards (22-C.Woods). NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Q305:36(5:36) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to LV 11 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-84-T.Arkin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 14 - No Play.Play 3164
(5:36) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to LV 11 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-84-T.Arkin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 14 - No Play.
Q304:35(4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LV 16 - No Play.Play 3224
(4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LV 16 - No Play.
Q303:108-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 27 for 24 yards (9-C.Kiner). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LV 27.Play 3380
8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 27 for 24 yards (9-C.Kiner). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LV 27.
Q302:04(2:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NE 36 for 15 yards (28-K.Vildor; 31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (28-K.Vildor), RECOVERED by NE-4-C.Woodson at NE 34.Play 3497
(2:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NE 36 for 15 yards (28-K.Vildor; 31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (28-K.Vildor), RECOVERED by NE-4-C.Woodson at NE 34.
Q413:12(13:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to NE 43 for 28 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). NE-5-Dr.Jones was injured during the play.Play 3793
(13:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-C.White to NE 43 for 28 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). NE-5-Dr.Jones was injured during the play.
Q410:54(10:54) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-94-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-99-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined.Play 3920
(10:54) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-94-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-99-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q406:068-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury Update: NE-94-C.Durden has returned to the game.Play 4216
8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury Update: NE-94-C.Durden has returned to the game.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE
2.27 pointsSupported
Actual state
Qtr
1
Down
1
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
NE
Ydstogo
10
Away team
LV
Home team
NE
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
15
Receive 2h ko
1
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
2934
Half seconds remaining
1134
Quarter seconds remaining
234
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Supported alternative
Qtr
1
Down
2
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
NE
Ydstogo
10
Away team
LV
Home team
NE
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
42
Receive 2h ko
1
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
2934
Half seconds remaining
1134
Quarter seconds remaining
234
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Assumptions
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q113:23Penalty · NE(13:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (5-E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at NE 25 - No Play.+
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE
2.78 pointsSupported
Actual state
Qtr
1
Down
1
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
NE
Ydstogo
10
Away team
LV
Home team
NE
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
51
Receive 2h ko
1
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
3496
Half seconds remaining
1696
Quarter seconds remaining
796
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Supported alternative
Qtr
1
Down
3
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
NE
Ydstogo
6
Away team
LV
Home team
NE
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
75
Receive 2h ko
1
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
3496
Half seconds remaining
1696
Quarter seconds remaining
796
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Assumptions
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Q108:29Penalty · LV(8:29) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Mayer (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.+
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE
-0.58 pointsSupported
Actual state
Qtr
1
Down
1
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
NE
Ydstogo
5
Away team
LV
Home team
NE
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
5
Receive 2h ko
1
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
2815
Half seconds remaining
1015
Quarter seconds remaining
115
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Supported alternative
Qtr
1
Down
1
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
NE
Ydstogo
1
Away team
LV
Home team
NE
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
1
Receive 2h ko
1
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining
2815
Half seconds remaining
1015
Quarter seconds remaining
115
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Assumptions
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Q304:35Penalty · NE(4:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LV 16 - No Play.+
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NE
2.54 pointsSupported
Actual state
Qtr
3
Down
1
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
NE
Ydstogo
10
Away team
LV
Home team
NE
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
12
Receive 2h ko
0
Score differential
18
Game seconds remaining
1171
Half seconds remaining
1171
Quarter seconds remaining
271
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Supported alternative
Qtr
3
Down
4
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
NE
Ydstogo
7
Away team
LV
Home team
NE
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
16
Receive 2h ko
0
Score differential
18
Game seconds remaining
1171
Half seconds remaining
1171
Quarter seconds remaining
271
Defteam timeouts remaining
3
Posteam timeouts remaining
3
Assumptions
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Q314:07Penalty · NE(14:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LV 42 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:04Fumble · LV(2:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NE 36 for 15 yards (28-K.Vildor; 31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (28-K.Vildor), RECOVERED by NE-4-C.Woodson at NE 34.+
Q111:23Penalty · NE8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q108:19Penalty · NE14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NE 6. 18-K.Williams pushed ob at NE 26 for 20 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 26.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:42Penalty · NE(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson ran ob at LV 33 for 15 yards. PENALTY on NE-76-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q100:12Penalty · LV(:12) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward right guard to LV 38 for 2 yards (25-M.Jones; 31-K.Byard). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at LV 36 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:56Penalty · LV(14:56) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to NE 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 23 for 14 yards (47-A.Ward; 34-C.Heyward). PENALTY on LV-93-P.Johnson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 23.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:42Penalty · NE(12:42) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NE-77-B.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play.+
Q208:41Penalty · LV(8:41) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [5-Dr.Jones]. PENALTY on LV-58-J.Powers-Johnson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at LV 45 - No Play.+
Q204:33Fumble · NE(4:33) (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV
0.59 recoveriesSupported
Actual state
Q200:28Fourth down · NE(:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Penalty on LV-17-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q314:31Fourth down · NE(14:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to LV 42 for 13 yards (5-E.Stokes). Penalty on LV-35-H.Masses, Illegal Contact, declined.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:02Penalty · NE(14:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at LV 19 for 6 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-18-K.Williams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q311:38Penalty · LV(11:38) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at NE 25.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:26Penalty · NE(11:26) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 21 for 8 yards (7-Q.Walker; 44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NE 13 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:36Penalty · NE(5:36) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to LV 11 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on NE-84-T.Arkin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 14 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q303:10Penalty · LV8-A.Borregales kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to LV 3. 83-D.Thompkins to LV 27 for 24 yards (9-C.Kiner). PENALTY on NE-33-M.Brown, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LV 27.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:54Fourth down · LV(10:54) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-94-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-99-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q406:06Kick · NE8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury Update: NE-94-C.Durden has returned to the game.+
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.