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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: MIN by 18.4; actual result: MIN by 10.
The 8.4-point difference was matched or exceeded in 263 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 96.94%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty yards: 71 versus 97.5 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 664 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: MIN by 2.5; actual result: MIN by 10. The difference was 7.5 points.
3,980 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Minnesota Vikings by 2.5
Final margin Minnesota Vikings by 10
Difference 7.5 points
Minnesota Vikings covered the spread.
3,980 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (54.7%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score MIN by 18.4
Actual final margin MIN by 10
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
New Orleans Saints chance to win during the game 131 preplay estimates across 155 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 24 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -1.62 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 0 + No plays met the scan criteria.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 155 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 155 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 10-D.Carlson kicks 64 yards from NO 35 to MIN 1. 4-M.Price to MIN 28 for 27 yards (38-J.Price; 44-I.Stalbird). Play 40 10-D.Carlson kicks 64 yards from NO 35 to MIN 1. 4-M.Price to MIN 28 for 27 yards (38-J.Price; 44-I.Stalbird).
Q114:54 (14:54) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 34 for 6 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 63 (14:54) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 34 for 6 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q114:22 (14:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 41 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner). MIN-87-T.Hockenson was injured during the play. Play 85 (14:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 41 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner). MIN-87-T.Hockenson was injured during the play.
Q1 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 34 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q308:07 Penalty · NO (8:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-76-D.Edwards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -1.71 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 26
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1387
Half seconds remaining 1387
Quarter seconds remaining 487
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 8e46a28da35046159fd0c5278db8ad58b3c0dbc4733e4a52e809a0ed71ffa182This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
263 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 664 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: John Hussey Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 92.5 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.4 / 47.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.6 / 45.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by John Hussey; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape New Orleans Saints · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New Orleans Saints · Opponent penalties Opponent MIN was charged 4 penalties for 30 yards.
Minnesota Vikings · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Minnesota Vikings · Opponent penalties Opponent NO was charged 6 penalties for 41 yards.
Minnesota Vikings · Long punt return 43-yard punt return.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 131 model estimates across 155 recorded game entries.
24 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (155 entries) Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -0.42 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -1.71 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -0.42 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
MIN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence 0.84 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence 0.89 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -0.21 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -0.45 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0.56 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58348/0.57790/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.31404/ NA/0.34556 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37102/0.35679/0.34188 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39642/0.38038/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 1.62 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42381/ NA/0.40760 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.52091/ NA/0.54459 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37736/0.33137/0.39687 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49195/ NA/0.52685 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38312/0.44461/0.37994 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08761/ NA/0.11148 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.87461/0.88998/0.87369 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05492/0.04581/0.04109 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
MIN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.95617/ NA/0.95826 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
NO Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.15 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
MIN Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.15 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
NO Field goal points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
MIN Field goal points above expectation 1.99 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 74th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NO Extra point points above expectation -0.94 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 93rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
MIN Extra point points above expectation 0.06 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 15th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
NO Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 155 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
MIN Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 155 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
MIN Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.39 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
68 of 68 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 68 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIN Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.8 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
68 of 68 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 68 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIN Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.32 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 27 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
MIN Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.33 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
27 of 27 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 27 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Presnap called penalties above expectation 3.09 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 49 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.21 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 49 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.46 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
13:53
(13:53) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 42 for 1 yard (96-C.Granderson; 28-D.Stutsman).
Play 110
(13:53) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 42 for 1 yard (96-C.Granderson; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q113:13 (13:13) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-B.Yurosek to NO 48 for 10 yards (28-D.Stutsman). Play 142 (13:13) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-B.Yurosek to NO 48 for 10 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
Q112:28 (12:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 13-T.Felton to NO 25 for 23 yards (23-J.Blackmon) [50-C.Wooden]. Play 167 (12:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 13-T.Felton to NO 25 for 23 yards (23-J.Blackmon) [50-C.Wooden].
Q111:42 (11:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at NO 35 for -10 yards (96-C.Granderson). Play 192 (11:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at NO 35 for -10 yards (96-C.Granderson).
Q111:04 (11:04) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-G.Bartholomew pushed ob at NO 22 for 13 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 217 (11:04) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-G.Bartholomew pushed ob at NO 22 for 13 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q110:23 (10:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 13 for 9 yards (20-P.Werner). PENALTY on MIN-72-R.Van Demark, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 22 - No Play. Play 247 (10:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 13 for 9 yards (20-P.Werner). PENALTY on MIN-72-R.Van Demark, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 22 - No Play.
Q109:56 (9:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 21-D.Claiborne to NO 21 for 6 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 283 (9:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 21-D.Claiborne to NO 21 for 6 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q109:08 (9:08) 16-W.Reichard 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. Play 308 (9:08) 16-W.Reichard 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
Q109:04 16-W.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to NO 4. 19-B.Brown to NO 27 for 23 yards (98-B.Richter). Play 328 16-W.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to NO 4. 19-B.Brown to NO 27 for 23 yards (98-B.Richter).
Q108:59 (8:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to NO 22 for -5 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman]. Play 361 (8:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to NO 22 for -5 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman].
Q108:27 (8:27) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 28 for 6 yards (2-I.Rodgers). Play 386 (8:27) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to NO 28 for 6 yards (2-I.Rodgers).
Q107:53 (7:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele. Play 408 (7:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Vele.
Q107:48 (7:48) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 30 for 14 yards (44-I.Stalbird). Play 431 (7:48) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 30 for 14 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
Q107:37 (7:37) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 33-A.Jones to MIN 31 for 1 yard (28-D.Stutsman). Play 462 (7:37) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 33-A.Jones to MIN 31 for 1 yard (28-D.Stutsman).
Q107:12 (7:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-T.Felton to MIN 35 for 4 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner). Play 499 (7:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-T.Felton to MIN 35 for 4 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner).
Q106:32 (6:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-G.Bartholomew to MIN 43 for 8 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 534 (6:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-G.Bartholomew to MIN 43 for 8 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q105:53 (5:53) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 46 for 3 yards (94-C.Jordan; 97-K.Boyd). Play 559 (5:53) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 46 for 3 yards (94-C.Jordan; 97-K.Boyd).
Q105:16 (5:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 49 for 5 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 581 (5:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 49 for 5 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q104:31 (4:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 30 for 19 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 606 (4:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 30 for 19 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q103:42 Timeout #1 by MIN at 03:42. Play 654 Timeout #1 by MIN at 03:42.
Q103:42 (3:42) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NO 24 for 6 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 631 (3:42) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NO 24 for 6 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q102:57 (2:57) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NO 19 for 5 yards (92-D.Godchaux; 50-C.Wooden). Play 671 (2:57) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NO 19 for 5 yards (92-D.Godchaux; 50-C.Wooden).
Q102:16 (2:16) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NO 15 for 4 yards (50-C.Wooden). Play 693 (2:16) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NO 15 for 4 yards (50-C.Wooden).
Q101:37 (1:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-M.Price to NO 10 for 5 yards (97-K.Boyd). Play 715 (1:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-M.Price to NO 10 for 5 yards (97-K.Boyd).
Q100:50 Timeout #2 by MIN at 00:50. Play 752 Timeout #2 by MIN at 00:50.
Q100:50 (:50) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NO 7 for 3 yards (97-K.Boyd). FUMBLES (97-K.Boyd), RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at NO 7. 99-C.Young to NO 34 for 27 yards (13-T.Felton). Play 740 (:50) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NO 7 for 3 yards (97-K.Boyd). FUMBLES (97-K.Boyd), RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at NO 7. 99-C.Young to NO 34 for 27 yards (13-T.Felton).
Q100:41 (:41) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 37 for 3 yards (55-E.Wilson; 50-L.Rodriguez). Play 785 (:41) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 37 for 3 yards (55-E.Wilson; 50-L.Rodriguez).
Q100:04 (:04) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to MIN 49 for 14 yards (44-J.Metellus). Play 814 (:04) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to MIN 49 for 14 yards (44-J.Metellus).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 839 Q215:00 (15:00) PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 49 - No Play. Play 859 (15:00) PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 49 - No Play.
Q215:00 (15:00) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to MIN 47 for 7 yards (61-J.Redmond; 51-B.Cashman). Play 883 (15:00) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to MIN 47 for 7 yards (61-J.Redmond; 51-B.Cashman).
Q214:25 (14:25) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to MIN 43 for 4 yards (50-L.Rodriguez; 15-D.Turner). Play 905 (14:25) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to MIN 43 for 4 yards (50-L.Rodriguez; 15-D.Turner).
Q213:45 (13:45) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to MIN 41 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman; 43-A.Van Ginkel). Play 927 (13:45) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to MIN 41 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q213:01 (13:01) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to MIN 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman). Play 954 (13:01) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to MIN 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman).
Q212:36 (12:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave (22-H.Smith). Play 979 (12:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave (22-H.Smith).
Q212:31 (12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at MIN 37 for -1 yards (7-B.Murphy). Play 1002 (12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at MIN 37 for -1 yards (7-B.Murphy).
Q211:58 (11:58) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 27 for 10 yards (51-B.Cashman). Play 1032 (11:58) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 27 for 10 yards (51-B.Cashman).
Q211:13 (11:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 23 for 4 yards (23-J.Pierre). Play 1057 (11:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 23 for 4 yards (23-J.Pierre).
Q210:38 (10:38) 5-K.Miller right guard to MIN 14 for 9 yards (44-J.Metellus). Play 1082 (10:38) 5-K.Miller right guard to MIN 14 for 9 yards (44-J.Metellus).
Q210:13 (10:13) (No Huddle) 5-K.Miller left tackle to MIN 7 for 7 yards (26-T.Jackson). Play 1104 (10:13) (No Huddle) 5-K.Miller left tackle to MIN 7 for 7 yards (26-T.Jackson).
Q209:31 (9:31) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to MIN 1 for 6 yards (44-J.Metellus). Play 1126 (9:31) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to MIN 1 for 6 yards (44-J.Metellus).
Q209:04 (9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to MIN 2 for -1 yards (50-L.Rodriguez). Play 1148 (9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to MIN 2 for -1 yards (50-L.Rodriguez).
Q208:26 (8:26) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1170 (8:26) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q208:23 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 1193 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q208:23 10-D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to MIN 3. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 29 yards (43-C.Donaldson; 36-L.Styles). Play 1208 10-D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to MIN 3. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 29 yards (43-C.Donaldson; 36-L.Styles).
Q208:18 (8:18) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 38 for 6 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 50-C.Wooden). ** Injury Update: MIN-33-A.Jones has returned to the game. Play 1238 (8:18) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 38 for 6 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 50-C.Wooden). ** Injury Update: MIN-33-A.Jones has returned to the game.
Q207:36 (7:36) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 40 for 2 yards (52-C.Miller). Play 1260 (7:36) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 40 for 2 yards (52-C.Miller).
Q206:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 40 for no gain (96-C.Granderson; 28-D.Stutsman). Play 1285 (6:56) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 40 for no gain (96-C.Granderson; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q206:15 (6:15) 19-B.Thorson punts 39 yards to NO 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown. Play 1307 (6:15) 19-B.Thorson punts 39 yards to NO 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.
Q206:07 (6:07) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 19 for -2 yards (61-J.Redmond). Play 1327 (6:07) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 19 for -2 yards (61-J.Redmond).
Q205:27 (5:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at NO 26 for 7 yards (51-B.Cashman; 2-I.Rodgers). Play 1356 (5:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at NO 26 for 7 yards (51-B.Cashman; 2-I.Rodgers).
Q205:03 (5:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele (2-I.Rodgers). Play 1386 (5:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele (2-I.Rodgers).
Q204:57 (4:57) 17-R.Wright punts 64 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at NO 47 for 43 yards (31-J.Howden). Play 1414 (4:57) 17-R.Wright punts 64 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at NO 47 for 43 yards (31-J.Howden).
Q204:41 (4:41) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at NO 43 for 4 yards (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on MIN-72-R.Van Demark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play. Play 1445 (4:41) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at NO 43 for 4 yards (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on MIN-72-R.Van Demark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.
Q204:19 (4:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 33-A.Jones to MIN 44 for 1 yard (7-J.Sanker). Play 1490 (4:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 33-A.Jones to MIN 44 for 1 yard (7-J.Sanker).
Q203:36 (3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson. Play 1515 (3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson.
Q203:28 (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end ran ob at MIN 49 for 5 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner). Penalty on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 1550 (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end ran ob at MIN 49 for 5 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner). Penalty on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q203:05 (3:05) 19-B.Thorson punts 38 yards to NO 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown. Play 1588 (3:05) 19-B.Thorson punts 38 yards to NO 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.
Q202:58 (2:58) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 14 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus; 95-C.Banks). Play 1608 (2:58) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 14 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus; 95-C.Banks).
Q202:21 (2:21) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 17 for 3 yards (95-C.Banks). Play 1637 (2:21) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 17 for 3 yards (95-C.Banks).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-12-C.Olave, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 17 - No Play. Play 1659 (2:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-12-C.Olave, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 17 - No Play.
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson ran ob at NO 15 for 3 yards. Play 1690 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson ran ob at NO 15 for 3 yards.
Q201:56 (1:56) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price. Play 1720 (1:56) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
Q201:49 (1:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 4-M.Price. Play 1740 (1:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 4-M.Price.
Q201:44 (1:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-M.Price to MIN 40 for 9 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 1775 (1:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-M.Price to MIN 40 for 9 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q201:00 (1:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 39 for 21 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Play 1800 (1:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 39 for 21 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
Q200:32 (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at NO 47 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-C.Young and 96-C.Granderson). Play 1825 (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at NO 47 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-C.Young and 96-C.Granderson).
Q200:26 Timeout #3 by MIN at 00:26. Play 1857 Timeout #3 by MIN at 00:26.
Q200:26 (:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 36 for 11 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 28-D.Stutsman). Play 1845 (:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 36 for 11 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q200:04 (:04) (No Huddle) 1-K.Murray spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 1877 (:04) (No Huddle) 1-K.Murray spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q200:03 (:03) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. Play 1900 (:03) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 1920 Q315:00 16-W.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to NO 6. 38-J.Price to NO 29 for 23 yards (41-J.Golday). FUMBLES (41-J.Golday), RECOVERED by MIN-82-J.Jones at NO 37. Play 1938 16-W.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to NO 6. 38-J.Price to NO 29 for 23 yards (41-J.Golday). FUMBLES (41-J.Golday), RECOVERED by MIN-82-J.Jones at NO 37.
Q314:53 (14:53) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 86-G.Bartholomew. Play 1977 (14:53) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 86-G.Bartholomew.
Q314:47 (14:47) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NO 37 for no gain (98-T.Wilson). Play 2000 (14:47) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NO 37 for no gain (98-T.Wilson).
Q314:06 (14:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end ran ob at NO 19 for 18 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 2022 (14:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end ran ob at NO 19 for 18 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q313:29 (13:29) 33-A.Jones right guard to NO 21 for -2 yards (96-C.Granderson). Play 2049 (13:29) 33-A.Jones right guard to NO 21 for -2 yards (96-C.Granderson).
Q312:54 (12:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 86-G.Bartholomew to NO 15 for 6 yards (21-J.Reid; 28-D.Stutsman). Play 2071 (12:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 86-G.Bartholomew to NO 15 for 6 yards (21-J.Reid; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q312:13 (12:13) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2096 (12:13) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q312:06 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. Play 2122 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
Q312:06 16-W.Reichard kicks 63 yards from MIN 35 to NO 2. 19-B.Brown to NO 27 for 25 yards (0-I.Pace). Play 2137 16-W.Reichard kicks 63 yards from MIN 35 to NO 2. 19-B.Brown to NO 27 for 25 yards (0-I.Pace).
Q312:00 (12:00) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NO 43 for 16 yards (26-T.Jackson). Play 2167 (12:00) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NO 43 for 16 yards (26-T.Jackson).
Q311:28 (11:28) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 47 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus). Play 2192 (11:28) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 47 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus).
Q310:51 (10:51) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (61-J.Redmond). Play 2214 (10:51) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (61-J.Redmond).
Q310:11 (10:11) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 46 for 4 yards (7-B.Murphy). Play 2236 (10:11) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 46 for 4 yards (7-B.Murphy).
Q309:31 (9:31) 5-K.Miller right end to MIN 47 for -1 yards (51-B.Cashman). Play 2261 (9:31) 5-K.Miller right end to MIN 47 for -1 yards (51-B.Cashman).
Q308:38 (8:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to MIN 35 for 12 yards (22-H.Smith). PENALTY on NO-43-C.Donaldson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play. Play 2286 (8:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to MIN 35 for 12 yards (22-H.Smith). PENALTY on NO-43-C.Donaldson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.
Q308:07 (8:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-76-D.Edwards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 43 - No Play. Play 2327 (8:07) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-76-D.Edwards, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 43 - No Play.
Q307:45 (7:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 49. 7-B.Murphy to NO 37 for 14 yards (6-T.Shough). Penalty on NO-41-A.Kamara, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 2351 (7:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 49. 7-B.Murphy to NO 37 for 14 yards (6-T.Shough). Penalty on NO-41-A.Kamara, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q307:35 (7:35) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to NO 34 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 2389 (7:35) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to NO 34 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q306:51 (6:51) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NO 28 for 6 yards (29-Q.Riley; 23-J.Blackmon). Play 2411 (6:51) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to NO 28 for 6 yards (29-Q.Riley; 23-J.Blackmon).
Q306:05 (6:05) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on MIN-76-W.Fries, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28 - No Play. Play 2433 (6:05) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on MIN-76-W.Fries, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28 - No Play.
Q305:59 (5:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Dallas to NO 27 for 11 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 2467 (5:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Dallas to NO 27 for 11 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q305:13 (5:13) 33-A.Jones right end to NO 26 for 1 yard (29-Q.Riley). Play 2492 (5:13) 33-A.Jones right end to NO 26 for 1 yard (29-Q.Riley).
Q304:31 (4:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to NO 24 for 2 yards (28-D.Stutsman). Play 2514 (4:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 33-A.Jones to NO 24 for 2 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
Q303:47 (3:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to NO 14 for 10 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 2539 (3:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to NO 14 for 10 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q303:01 (3:01) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Felton. Play 2561 (3:01) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Felton.
Q302:55 (2:55) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play. Play 2596 (2:55) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play.
Q302:55 (2:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 14-J.Jennings. Play 2620 (2:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 14-J.Jennings.
Q302:49 (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2643 (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q302:34 10-D.Carlson extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 2685 10-D.Carlson extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q302:34 10-D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to MIN 3. 4-M.Price to MIN 30 for 27 yards (44-I.Stalbird; 4-O.Delp). Play 2700 10-D.Carlson kicks 62 yards from NO 35 to MIN 3. 4-M.Price to MIN 30 for 27 yards (44-I.Stalbird; 4-O.Delp).
Q302:26 (2:26) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 82-J.Jones to NO 38 for 32 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 2730 (2:26) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 82-J.Jones to NO 38 for 32 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q301:52 (1:52) 33-A.Jones right tackle to NO 19 for 19 yards (21-J.Reid; 98-T.Wilson). Play 2766 (1:52) 33-A.Jones right tackle to NO 19 for 19 yards (21-J.Reid; 98-T.Wilson).
Q301:07 (1:07) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at NO 13 for 6 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 2788 (1:07) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at NO 13 for 6 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q300:30 (:30) 33-A.Jones right guard to NO 10 for 3 yards (50-C.Wooden; 20-P.Werner). Play 2815 (:30) 33-A.Jones right guard to NO 10 for 3 yards (50-C.Wooden; 20-P.Werner).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 2837 Q415:00 (15:00) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 86-G.Bartholomew to NO 8 for 2 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Play 2857 (15:00) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 86-G.Bartholomew to NO 8 for 2 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
Q414:12 (14:12) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2886 (14:12) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q414:06 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. Play 2909 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
Q414:06 16-W.Reichard kicks 58 yards from MIN 35 to NO 7. 19-B.Brown to NO 27 for 20 yards (32-C.Chambliss). Play 2924 16-W.Reichard kicks 58 yards from MIN 35 to NO 7. 19-B.Brown to NO 27 for 20 yards (32-C.Chambliss).
Q414:02 (14:02) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 29 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman). Play 2963 (14:02) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 29 for 2 yards (51-B.Cashman).
Q413:28 (13:28) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 42 for 13 yards (26-T.Jackson). PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play. Play 2985 (13:28) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 42 for 13 yards (26-T.Jackson). PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play.
Q413:14 (13:14) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 18-B.Lance. Play 3018 (13:14) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 18-B.Lance.
Q413:07 (13:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 18-B.Lance. Play 3041 (13:07) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 18-B.Lance.
Q413:04 (13:04) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play. Play 3064 (13:04) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play.
Q413:04 (13:04) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Adomitis, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird. Play 3092 (13:04) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Adomitis, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.
Q412:49 (12:49) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 40 for 8 yards (94-C.Jordan; 21-J.Reid). Play 3112 (12:49) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 40 for 8 yards (94-C.Jordan; 21-J.Reid).
Q412:08 (12:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 41 for 1 yard (95-J.Ridgeway). Play 3141 (12:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 41 for 1 yard (95-J.Ridgeway).
Q411:27 (11:27) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to MIN 46 for 5 yards (94-C.Jordan). Play 3163 (11:27) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to MIN 46 for 5 yards (94-C.Jordan).
Q410:41 (10:41) 33-A.Jones right guard to NO 49 for 5 yards (98-T.Wilson). Play 3185 (10:41) 33-A.Jones right guard to NO 49 for 5 yards (98-T.Wilson).
Q409:56 (9:56) 33-A.Jones right tackle to NO 41 for 8 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 3207 (9:56) 33-A.Jones right tackle to NO 41 for 8 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q409:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 18-J.Jefferson to NO 49 for -8 yards (50-C.Wooden). FUMBLES (50-C.Wooden), recovered by MIN-1-K.Murray at MIN 48. Play 3229 (9:17) (Shotgun) 18-J.Jefferson to NO 49 for -8 yards (50-C.Wooden). FUMBLES (50-C.Wooden), recovered by MIN-1-K.Murray at MIN 48.
Q408:27 Timeout #1 by MIN at 08:27. Play 3278 Timeout #1 by MIN at 08:27.
Q408:27 (8:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 44 for 8 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 3266 (8:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 44 for 8 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q407:48 (7:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to NO 37 for 7 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 3298 (7:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles up the middle to NO 37 for 7 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q407:06 (7:06) 16-W.Reichard 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. Play 3320 (7:06) 16-W.Reichard 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
Q407:01 16-W.Reichard kicks 60 yards from MIN 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 30 for 25 yards (31-D.Dallas; 24-J.Ward). Play 3340 16-W.Reichard kicks 60 yards from MIN 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 30 for 25 yards (31-D.Dallas; 24-J.Ward).
Q406:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to NO 41 for 11 yards (26-T.Jackson). Play 3378 (6:56) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to NO 41 for 11 yards (26-T.Jackson).
Q406:37 (6:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at NO 44 for 3 yards (23-J.Pierre). Play 3403 (6:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele ran ob at NO 44 for 3 yards (23-J.Pierre).
Q406:05 (6:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 47 for 9 yards (23-J.Pierre). Play 3433 (6:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 47 for 9 yards (23-J.Pierre).
Q405:39 (5:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at MIN 44 for 3 yards (51-B.Cashman). Play 3458 (5:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at MIN 44 for 3 yards (51-B.Cashman).
Q405:13 (5:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Johnson [55-E.Wilson]. Play 3488 (5:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Johnson [55-E.Wilson].
Q405:09 (5:09) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [50-L.Rodriguez]. Penalty on NO, Illegal Shift, declined. Play 3511 (5:09) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [50-L.Rodriguez]. Penalty on NO, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q405:05 (5:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 38 for 6 yards (7-B.Murphy). Play 3545 (5:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 38 for 6 yards (7-B.Murphy).
Q404:57 (4:57) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 39 for 1 yard (28-D.Stutsman). Play 3575 (4:57) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 39 for 1 yard (28-D.Stutsman).
Q404:12 (4:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 42 for 3 yards (95-J.Ridgeway; 21-J.Reid). Play 3597 (4:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIN 42 for 3 yards (95-J.Ridgeway; 21-J.Reid).
Q404:08 Timeout #1 by NO at 04:08. Play 3631 Timeout #1 by NO at 04:08.
Q404:08 (4:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 86-G.Bartholomew to MIN 46 for 4 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 20-P.Werner). Play 3619 (4:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 86-G.Bartholomew to MIN 46 for 4 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 20-P.Werner).
Q404:01 Timeout #2 by NO at 04:01. Play 3663 Timeout #2 by NO at 04:01.
Q404:01 (4:01) 19-B.Thorson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. Play 3651 (4:01) 19-B.Thorson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.
Q403:53 (3:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 11 for -9 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel). Play 3676 (3:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 11 for -9 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q403:27 (3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 18 for 7 yards (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson). Play 3705 (3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 18 for 7 yards (51-B.Cashman; 55-E.Wilson).
Q402:56 (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 46. 7-B.Murphy pushed ob at MIN 46 for no gain (12-C.Olave). Play 3730 (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 46. 7-B.Murphy pushed ob at MIN 46 for no gain (12-C.Olave).
Q402:49 (2:49) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 47 for 1 yard (20-P.Werner; 94-C.Jordan). Play 3757 (2:49) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 47 for 1 yard (20-P.Werner; 94-C.Jordan).
Q402:45 Timeout #3 by NO at 02:45. Play 3796 Timeout #3 by NO at 02:45.
Q402:45 (2:45) 33-A.Jones right tackle to NO 38 for 15 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Play 3784 (2:45) 33-A.Jones right tackle to NO 38 for 15 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
Q402:00 (2:00) 1-K.Murray kneels to NO 39 for -1 yards. Play 3813 (2:00) 1-K.Murray kneels to NO 39 for -1 yards.
Q401:19 (1:19) 1-K.Murray kneels to NO 40 for -1 yards. Play 3842 (1:19) 1-K.Murray kneels to NO 40 for -1 yards.
Q400:38 (:38) 1-K.Murray kneels to NO 41 for -1 yards. Play 3864 (:38) 1-K.Murray kneels to NO 41 for -1 yards.
dome
Game seconds remaining 1387
Half seconds remaining 1387
Quarter seconds remaining 487
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -0.42 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 26
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1387
Half seconds remaining 1387
Quarter seconds remaining 487
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 21
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 57
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1387
Half seconds remaining 1387
Quarter seconds remaining 487
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Penalty · NO (15:00) PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -1.62 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -0.42 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q206:15 Fourth down · MIN (6:15) 19-B.Thorson punts 39 yards to NO 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 1.62 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.5132241439497732
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.3958333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2175
Half seconds remaining 375
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 375
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4238127556637812 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42381/ NA/0.40760 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:55 Penalty · MIN (2:55) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO 0.84 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1075
Half seconds remaining 1075
Quarter seconds remaining 175
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1075
Half seconds remaining 1075
Quarter seconds remaining 175
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO 0.89 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 15
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1075
Half seconds remaining 1075
Quarter seconds remaining 175
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 10
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1075
Half seconds remaining 1075
Quarter seconds remaining 175
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q413:04 Penalty · NO (13:04) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO-46-C.Adomitis, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -0.21 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 24
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 784
Half seconds remaining 784
Quarter seconds remaining 784
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 18
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 81
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 784
Half seconds remaining 784
Quarter seconds remaining 784
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -0.45 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 24
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 87
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 784
Half seconds remaining 784
Quarter seconds remaining 784
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 18
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 81
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 784
Half seconds remaining 784
Quarter seconds remaining 784
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:48 Fourth down · NO (7:48) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 30 for 14 yards (44-I.Stalbird). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.546958479515352
Yardline 100 72
Elapsed share 0.12
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3168
Half seconds remaining 1368
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 468
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3455563235041993 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.31404/ NA/0.34556 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:57 Fourth down · NO (4:57) 17-R.Wright punts 64 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at NO 47 for 43 yards (31-J.Howden). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.470617664096867
Yardline 100 74
Elapsed share 0.4175
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2097
Half seconds remaining 297
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 297
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5445896205565507 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.52091/ NA/0.54459 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:05 Fourth down · MIN (3:05) 19-B.Thorson punts 38 yards to NO 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.4155494275440385
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.4486111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1985
Half seconds remaining 185
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 185
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3968747844835489 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37736/0.33137/0.39687 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:56 Fourth down · NO (1:56) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.3848812710120996
Yardline 100 85
Elapsed share 0.4677777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1916
Half seconds remaining 116
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 116
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5268520352047634 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49195/ NA/0.52685 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:03 Kick · MIN (:03) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.3394678838654642
Yardline 100 36
Elapsed share 0.4991666666666666
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1803
Half seconds remaining 3
Away timeouts remaining 0
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 3
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4446117195673592 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.38312/0.44461/0.37994 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation MIN 1.99 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q413:04 Fourth down · NO (13:04) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Adomitis, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 24
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.1094159989483102
Yardline 100 87
Elapsed share 0.7822222222222223
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 784
Half seconds remaining 784
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 784
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1114795996542784 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08761/ NA/0.11148 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:06 Kick · MIN (7:06) 16-W.Reichard 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.07350690476516106
Yardline 100 37
Elapsed share 0.8816666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 426
Half seconds remaining 426
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 426
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8899836377582039 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.87461/0.88998/0.87369 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation MIN 1.99 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 22 recorded events Q405:05 Fourth down · NO (5:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 38 for 6 yards (7-B.Murphy). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.06425984230984642
Yardline 100 44
Elapsed share 0.9152777777777777
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 305
Half seconds remaining 305
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 305
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.05492019974057318 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.05492/0.04581/0.04109 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:01 Fourth down · MIN (4:01) 19-B.Thorson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.05984894405362601
Yardline 100 54
Elapsed share 0.9330555555555555
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q110:23 Penalty · MIN (10:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to NO 13 for 9 yards (20-P.Werner). PENALTY on MIN-72-R.Van Demark, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 22 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:08 Kick · MIN (9:08) 16-W.Reichard 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. + Fourth down decision cost MIN 0.56 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam MIN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.690762517159124
Yardline 100 21
Elapsed share 0.09777777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 22
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam MIN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q100:50 Fumble · MIN (:50) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NO 7 for 3 yards (97-K.Boyd). FUMBLES (97-K.Boyd), RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at NO 7. 99-C.Young to NO 34 for 27 yards (13-T.Felton). + Fumble recoveries above expectation NO 0.15 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation MIN -0.15 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q213:01 Fourth down · NO (13:01) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to MIN 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.8057905044094926
Yardline 100 41
Elapsed share 0.2830555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q211:13 Fourth down · NO (11:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 23 for 4 yards (23-J.Pierre). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team MIN
Home team NO
Away total 22
Home total 19.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.714672066073406
Yardline 100 27
Elapsed share 0.3130555555555555
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q208:23 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO -0.94 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q204:41 Penalty · MIN (4:41) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at NO 43 for 4 yards (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on MIN-72-R.Van Demark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:28 Fourth down · MIN (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end ran ob at MIN 49 for 5 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner). Penalty on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Penalty · NO (2:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-12-C.Olave, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 17 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q315:00 Fumble · NO 16-W.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to NO 6. 38-J.Price to NO 29 for 23 yards (41-J.Golday). FUMBLES (41-J.Golday), RECOVERED by MIN-82-J.Jones at NO 37. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q312:06 Kick · MIN 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. + Extra point points above expectation MIN 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q308:38 Penalty · NO (8:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to MIN 35 for 12 yards (22-H.Smith). PENALTY on NO-43-C.Donaldson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:45 Fourth down · NO (7:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 49. 7-B.Murphy to NO 37 for 14 yards (6-T.Shough). Penalty on NO-41-A.Kamara, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:05 Penalty · MIN (6:05) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on MIN-76-W.Fries, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence MIN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:49 Fumble · MIN (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NO 0.15 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation MIN -0.15 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q302:34 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO -0.94 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q414:06 Kick · MIN 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. + Extra point points above expectation MIN 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q413:28 Penalty · NO (13:28) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 42 for 13 yards (26-T.Jackson). PENALTY on NO-87-N.Fant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:17 Fumble · MIN (9:17) (Shotgun) 18-J.Jefferson to NO 49 for -8 yards (50-C.Wooden). FUMBLES (50-C.Wooden), recovered by MIN-1-K.Murray at MIN 48. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NO 0.15 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation MIN -0.15 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q405:09 Fourth down · NO (5:09) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [50-L.Rodriguez]. Penalty on NO, Illegal Shift, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-raw-pbp Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 396fd623e09c6834b0ed0505c12bfa9ccab98038525ee57698080dd570eda21a
nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 160870855781141553c2160785280eddbd2d358b0f57ca161b36e9342a3d1e00Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 13c583eab8cc7f9f9469e933599f996b51191e8e4bceb82d97f4a572e71810a7
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 10 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 13, 2026, 1:42 AM UTC Version 9 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 9:42 PM UTC Version 8 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 8:07 PM UTC Version 7 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC Version 6 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 10:53 AM UTC Version 5 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 6:02 AM UTC Version 4 ↗ Updated source data
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Oct 12, 2026, 4:29 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 11, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 11, 2026, 9:16 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 8:18 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
10
Game seconds remaining 241
Half seconds remaining 241
Quarter seconds remaining 241
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9582626361085637 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.95617/ NA/0.95826 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 3248
Half seconds remaining 1448
Quarter seconds remaining 548
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5834768130461396 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58348/0.57790/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation MIN 1.99 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-3
Game seconds remaining 2581
Half seconds remaining 781
Quarter seconds remaining 781
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3710165658190299 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37102/0.35679/0.34188 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-3
Game seconds remaining 2473
Half seconds remaining 673
Quarter seconds remaining 673
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3964191843687563 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39642/0.38038/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled