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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: WAS by 7.3; actual result: a tie.
The 7.3-point difference was matched or exceeded in 310 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 WAS minus NYG penalty-yard difference: 34 versus 0.8 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 505 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: WAS by 3.5; actual result: a tie. The difference was 3.5 points.
5,710 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
A tied game has no winner, so the RIGGED? combination cannot apply.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Washington Commanders by 3.5
Final margin Tie
Difference 3.5 points
New York Giants covered the spread.
5,710 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (78.5%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score WAS by 7.3
Actual final margin Even
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates · amber = experimental overtime · circle = recorded result
Washington Commanders chance to win during the game 165 preplay estimates across 210 recorded game entries; 20 use an experimental overtime model. 44 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The shaded region marks overtime. A separate circle identifies the recorded final outcome, not a forecast. All recorded entries appear in the table below. OVERTIME Experimental estimates 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 2.72 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 6 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 07:24 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 3670 (7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to WAS 1 for 16 yards (20-Q.Martin, 29-R.Douglas) [45-K.Chaisson]. FUMBLES (29-R.Douglas), RECOVERED by WAS-29-R.Douglas at WAS -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-K.Chaisson].
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 6.9 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 00:56 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 1939 (:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 45 for 10 yards (52-S.Styles). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 44 for 9 yards (52-S.Styles).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 3.0 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 08:07 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 1469 THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 210 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 210 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 34-D.Zvada kicks 61 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 4. 1-R.White to WAS 31 for 27 yards (12-C.Hood). Play 40 34-D.Zvada kicks 61 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 4. 1-R.White to WAS 31 for 27 yards (12-C.Hood).
Q114:54 (14:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at WAS 42 for 11 yards (2-D.Banks; 52-A.Reese). Play 63 (14:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at WAS 42 for 11 yards (2-D.Banks; 52-A.Reese).
Q114:29 (14:29) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to WAS 44 for 2 yards (91-D.Alexander; 93-S.Harris). Play 93 (14:29) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to WAS 44 for 2 yards (91-D.Alexander; 93-S.Harris).
Q113:47 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 43 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q209:46 Penalty · WAS (9:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-87-J.Bates, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 9 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS -2.8 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2386
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. overtime_model_experimental: Overtime estimates are partial, empirical and uncalibrated; unavailable states remain gaps. Terminal values are observed results, not predictions. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 10, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 0031985a12533231159ff7d538e461df662979e40d25b140dd4f6ed9ef6b6e56nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC
Difference
7.3 points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
310 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 505 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Clete Blakeman Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.9 accepted penalties for 104.2 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.4 / 51.9 yd per game. Away teams: 6.5 / 52.3 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Clete Blakeman; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Washington Commanders · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 1 in overtime.
Washington Commanders · Opponent penalties Opponent NYG was charged 7 penalties for 35 yards.
New York Giants · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New York Giants · Opponent penalties Opponent WAS was charged 9 penalties for 69 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
Recorded final result: tie. This point is an observation, not a forecast. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 165 model estimates across 210 recorded game entries, plus 1 recorded final result.
44 entries have no estimate : 13 overtime entries and 31 other recorded states.
The overtime model requires at least 20 comparable prior games with matching possession rules. Sparse or ambiguous states stay unrated. It estimates wins, losses and ties separately; see coverage and limits .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The final circle shows the recorded outcome. A tied game has 0% win and 100% tie at that point.
View all chart data (210 entries) Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 0.68 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence -2.8 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence -0.53 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence -0.79 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence -0.54 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 1.7 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 0.56 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence -2.64 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence -0.5 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 2.11 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 0.76 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 1.34 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 0.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence 0.57 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Ruling expected points consequence 0.63 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
WAS Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28707/0.31831/0.27502 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67319/ NA/0.71151 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 2.29 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27046/ NA/0.24753 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28352/0.28960/0.25985 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67071/0.67834/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19653/ NA/0.23661 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64576/ NA/0.67691 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76208/0.77519/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15538/0.17353/0.15070 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 1.12 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17656/0.16536/0.14203 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07236/0.06959/0.06119 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02529/0.02481/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80492/ NA/0.86861 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
WAS Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
WAS Fumble recoveries above expectation 1.5 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
NYG Fumble recoveries above expectation -1.5 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
WAS Field goal points above expectation 0.37 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NYG Field goal points above expectation -4.9 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
WAS Extra point points above expectation -0.92 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 94th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
NYG Extra point points above expectation 0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 37th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
WAS Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 210 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
NYG Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 210 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
WAS Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.71 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.1 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.36 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
WAS Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.3 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.25 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
92 of 92 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 92 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.6 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
92 of 92 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 92 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.61 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
(8:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 22 for -11 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-29-R.Douglas, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 33 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on WAS awarded NYG a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 5.3 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 01:46 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 2989 (1:46) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 2-A.Robertson at WAS 1. 2-A.Robertson to WAS 26 for 25 yards (17-D.Mooney). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 10 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on WAS awarded NYG a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.0 percentage points across this play.
Show 2 more plays Q5 · 09:56 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 4387 (9:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at NYG 40 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on WAS-98-O.Oweh, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 40.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Q5 · 05:43 Recorded game event
Washington Commanders · Play 4737 (5:43) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 46 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. (13:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-C.Okonkwo to NYG 33 for 23 yards (27-T.Nubin).
Play 115
(13:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-C.Okonkwo to NYG 33 for 23 yards (27-T.Nubin).
Q113:07 (13:07) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 140 (13:07) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q113:00 19-D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 163 19-D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q113:00 19-D.Stevens kicks 62 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 3. 89-C.Jones to NYG 31 for 28 yards (41-J.Jean-Baptiste). Play 178 19-D.Stevens kicks 62 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 3. 89-C.Jones to NYG 31 for 28 yards (41-J.Jean-Baptiste).
Q112:55 (12:55) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NYG 36 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne; 52-S.Styles). Play 208 (12:55) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NYG 36 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne; 52-S.Styles).
Q112:33 (12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo right guard to NYG 38 for 2 yards (97-T.Settle; 52-S.Styles). Play 230 (12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo right guard to NYG 38 for 2 yards (97-T.Settle; 52-S.Styles).
Q111:53 (11:53) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to NYG 43 for 5 yards (4-F.Luvu). Play 252 (11:53) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to NYG 43 for 5 yards (4-F.Luvu).
Q111:11 (11:11) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right. Play 274 (11:11) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right.
Q111:06 (11:06) 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to NYG 40 for -3 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 297 (11:06) 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to NYG 40 for -3 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q110:23 (10:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to WAS 45 for 15 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 319 (10:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to WAS 45 for 15 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q109:47 (9:47) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 17-D.Mooney to 50 for -5 yards (97-T.Settle). NYG-17-D.Mooney was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-92-D.Armstrong, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play. Play 344 (9:47) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 17-D.Mooney to 50 for -5 yards (97-T.Settle). NYG-17-D.Mooney was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-92-D.Armstrong, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play.
Q109:26 (9:26) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. PENALTY on NYG-64-A.Stinnie, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 30 - No Play. Play 382 (9:26) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. PENALTY on NYG-64-A.Stinnie, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 30 - No Play.
Q109:03 (9:03) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to WAS 28 for 7 yards (2-A.Robertson). PENALTY on NYG-9-I.Likely, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 35 - No Play. Play 408 (9:03) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to WAS 28 for 7 yards (2-A.Robertson). PENALTY on NYG-9-I.Likely, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 35 - No Play.
Q108:44 (8:44) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to WAS 39 for 1 yard (91-D.Wise). Play 444 (8:44) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to WAS 39 for 1 yard (91-D.Wise).
Q108:02 (8:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Mooney. ** Injury Update: NYG-17-D.Mooney has returned to the game. Play 466 (8:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Mooney. ** Injury Update: NYG-17-D.Mooney has returned to the game.
Q107:55 (7:55) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 32 for 7 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 489 (7:55) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 32 for 7 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q107:15 (7:15) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 514 (7:15) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q107:11 (7:11) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end to WAS 42 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader; 5-K.Thibodeaux). Play 535 (7:11) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end to WAS 42 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader; 5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q106:49 (6:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 36 for -6 yards (3-A.Carter). Play 570 (6:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 36 for -6 yards (3-A.Carter).
Q106:05 (6:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Play 590 (6:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right.
Q106:00 (6:00) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 24 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 613 (6:00) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 24 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q105:50 (5:50) 23-N.Harris left guard to NYG 25 for 1 yard (52-S.Styles; 96-S.Tuttle). Play 644 (5:50) 23-N.Harris left guard to NYG 25 for 1 yard (52-S.Styles; 96-S.Tuttle).
Q105:08 (5:08) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris up the middle to NYG 28 for 3 yards (96-S.Tuttle; 52-S.Styles). Play 673 (5:08) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris up the middle to NYG 28 for 3 yards (96-S.Tuttle; 52-S.Styles).
Q104:26 (4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to NYG 32 for 4 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 695 (4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to NYG 32 for 4 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q103:47 (3:47) 15-J.Stout punts 55 yards to WAS 13, Center-58-B.Mann. 14-A.Williams to WAS 15 for 2 yards (46-Z.Barnes). Play 720 (3:47) 15-J.Stout punts 55 yards to WAS 13, Center-58-B.Mann. 14-A.Williams to WAS 15 for 2 yards (46-Z.Barnes).
Q103:37 (3:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo (93-S.Harris). Play 746 (3:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo (93-S.Harris).
Q103:34 (3:34) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Burks (2-D.Banks). Play 776 (3:34) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Burks (2-D.Banks).
Q103:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 7 for -8 yards (22-A.Phillips). Play 799 (3:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 7 for -8 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Q102:46 (2:46) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to NYG 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 45 for 11 yards (80-C.Yankoff). Play 819 (2:46) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to NYG 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 45 for 11 yards (80-C.Yankoff).
Q102:35 (2:35) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 35 for 20 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 850 (2:35) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 35 for 20 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q101:55 (1:55) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle [4-F.Luvu]. Play 875 (1:55) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle [4-F.Luvu].
Q101:48 (1:48) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right end to WAS 33 for 2 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 898 (1:48) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right end to WAS 33 for 2 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q101:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Mooney. Play 920 (1:05) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Mooney.
Q101:00 (1:00) 34-D.Zvada 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 943 (1:00) 34-D.Zvada 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q100:55 34-D.Zvada kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 5. 1-R.White to WAS 28 for 23 yards (84-T.Johnson). Play 963 34-D.Zvada kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 5. 1-R.White to WAS 28 for 23 yards (84-T.Johnson).
Q100:50 (:50) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to WAS 33 for 5 yards (3-A.Carter; 52-A.Reese). Play 993 (:50) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to WAS 33 for 5 yards (3-A.Carter; 52-A.Reese).
Q100:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 37 for 4 yards (98-D.Reader). Play 1015 (:16) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 37 for 4 yards (98-D.Reader).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1037 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 40 for 3 yards (2-D.Banks). Play 1057 (15:00) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard to WAS 40 for 3 yards (2-D.Banks).
Q214:23 (14:23) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left end to WAS 40 for no gain (98-D.Reader). Play 1079 (14:23) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left end to WAS 40 for no gain (98-D.Reader).
Q213:49 (13:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at NYG 35 for 25 yards (20-G.Newsome). Play 1101 (13:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at NYG 35 for 25 yards (20-G.Newsome).
Q213:16 (13:16) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end to NYG 34 for 1 yard (52-A.Reese). Play 1131 (13:16) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end to NYG 34 for 1 yard (52-A.Reese).
Q212:34 (12:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to NYG 19 for 15 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 1153 (12:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to NYG 19 for 15 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q211:55 (11:55) 30-A.Ekeler right end to NYG 20 for -1 yards (99-B.Okoye, 3-A.Carter). Play 1178 (11:55) 30-A.Ekeler right end to NYG 20 for -1 yards (99-B.Okoye, 3-A.Carter).
Q211:18 (11:18) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to NYG 20 for no gain (93-S.Harris). Play 1200 (11:18) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to NYG 20 for no gain (93-S.Harris).
Q210:38 (10:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to NYG 9 for 11 yards (52-A.Reese; 27-T.Nubin). Play 1222 (10:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to NYG 9 for 11 yards (52-A.Reese; 27-T.Nubin).
Q209:51 (9:51) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Play 1244 (9:51) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right.
Q209:46 (9:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-87-J.Bates, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 9 - No Play. Play 1267 (9:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-87-J.Bates, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 9 - No Play.
Q209:46 (9:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-1-R.White, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 14 - No Play. Play 1291 (9:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-1-R.White, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 14 - No Play.
Q209:46 (9:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 9 for 10 yards (20-G.Newsome). Play 1315 (9:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 9 for 10 yards (20-G.Newsome).
Q209:05 (9:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Burks. Penalty on WAS-74-B.Coleman, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 1340 (9:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Burks. Penalty on WAS-74-B.Coleman, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q209:00 (9:00) 19-D.Stevens 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 1374 (9:00) 19-D.Stevens 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q208:57 19-D.Stevens kicks 59 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 6. 89-C.Jones to NYG 30 for 24 yards (80-C.Yankoff; 11-L.McCaffrey). Play 1394 19-D.Stevens kicks 59 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 6. 89-C.Jones to NYG 30 for 24 yards (80-C.Yankoff; 11-L.McCaffrey).
Q208:51 (8:51) 29-T.Tracy right end to NYG 33 for 3 yards (91-D.Wise). Play 1424 (8:51) 29-T.Tracy right end to NYG 33 for 3 yards (91-D.Wise).
Q208:13 (8:13) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Mooney (39-J.Reaves) [99-J.Kinlaw]. Play 1446 (8:13) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Mooney (39-J.Reaves) [99-J.Kinlaw].
Q208:07 (8:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 22 for -11 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-29-R.Douglas, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 33 - No Play. Play 1469 (8:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 22 for -11 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-29-R.Douglas, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 33 - No Play.
Q207:40 (7:40) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 23-N.Harris to NYG 43 for 5 yards (4-F.Luvu). Play 1500 (7:40) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 23-N.Harris to NYG 43 for 5 yards (4-F.Luvu).
Q207:03 (7:03) 23-N.Harris left end to NYG 43 for no gain (99-J.Kinlaw; 4-F.Luvu). Play 1525 (7:03) 23-N.Harris left end to NYG 43 for no gain (99-J.Kinlaw; 4-F.Luvu).
Q206:18 (6:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-9-I.Likely, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43 - No Play. Play 1547 (6:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-9-I.Likely, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43 - No Play.
Q205:55 (5:55) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 25 for -13 yards (94-D.Payne). WAS-39-J.Reaves was injured during the play. Play 1571 (5:55) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 25 for -13 yards (94-D.Payne). WAS-39-J.Reaves was injured during the play.
Q205:07 (5:07) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to WAS 16, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 14-A.Williams. Play 1594 (5:07) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to WAS 16, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 14-A.Williams.
Q205:00 (5:00) 5-J.Daniels up the middle to WAS 17 for 1 yard (49-T.Edmunds). Play 1614 (5:00) 5-J.Daniels up the middle to WAS 17 for 1 yard (49-T.Edmunds).
Q204:18 (4:18) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 20 for 3 yards (24-A.Washington). Play 1643 (4:18) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 20 for 3 yards (24-A.Washington).
Q203:40 Timeout #1 by NYG at 03:40. Play 1677 Timeout #1 by NYG at 03:40.
Q203:40 (3:40) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 20 - No Play. Play 1665 (3:40) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 20 - No Play.
Q203:40 (3:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 16 for 1 yard (49-T.Edmunds). Play 1696 (3:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 16 for 1 yard (49-T.Edmunds).
Q203:01 (3:01) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 45 for 16 yards (36-D.Hall; 82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-39-J.Reaves has returned to the game. Play 1721 (3:01) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 45 for 16 yards (36-D.Hall; 82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-39-J.Reaves has returned to the game.
Q202:50 (2:50) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 44-C.Skattebo left guard to NYG 47 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles). Play 1747 (2:50) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 44-C.Skattebo left guard to NYG 47 for 2 yards (52-S.Styles).
Q202:08 (2:08) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (45-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (45-K.Chaisson), touched at NYG 39, RECOVERED by WAS-97-T.Settle at NYG 28. 97-T.Settle to NYG 27 for 1 yard (72-J.Eluemunor). Play 1781 (2:08) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (45-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (45-K.Chaisson), touched at NYG 39, RECOVERED by WAS-97-T.Settle at NYG 28. 97-T.Settle to NYG 27 for 1 yard (72-J.Eluemunor).
Q201:58 (1:58) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left tackle to NYG 22 for 5 yards (2-D.Banks). Play 1811 (1:58) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left tackle to NYG 22 for 5 yards (2-D.Banks).
Q201:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at NYG 21 for 1 yard (22-A.Phillips). Play 1840 (1:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at NYG 21 for 1 yard (22-A.Phillips).
Q201:10 (1:10) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left tackle to NYG 22 for -1 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 1867 (1:10) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left tackle to NYG 22 for -1 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q201:06 Timeout #2 by NYG at 01:06. Play 1901 Timeout #2 by NYG at 01:06.
Q201:06 (1:06) 19-D.Stevens 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 1889 (1:06) 19-D.Stevens 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q201:02 19-D.Stevens kicks 53 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 12. 29-T.Tracy to NYG 35 for 23 yards (11-L.McCaffrey; 57-A.Keys). Play 1916 19-D.Stevens kicks 53 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 12. 29-T.Tracy to NYG 35 for 23 yards (11-L.McCaffrey; 57-A.Keys).
Q200:56 (:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 45 for 10 yards (52-S.Styles). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 44 for 9 yards (52-S.Styles). Play 1939 (:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 45 for 10 yards (52-S.Styles). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 44 for 9 yards (52-S.Styles).
Q200:39 (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 44-C.Skattebo. Play 1964 (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 44-C.Skattebo.
Q200:36 (:36) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NYG 49 for 5 yards (92-D.Armstrong). Play 1992 (:36) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NYG 49 for 5 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
Q200:31 Timeout #3 by NYG at 00:31. Play 2026 Timeout #3 by NYG at 00:31.
Q200:31 (:31) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to WAS 39 for 12 yards (2-A.Robertson). Penalty on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Holding, declined. Play 2014 (:31) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to WAS 39 for 12 yards (2-A.Robertson). Penalty on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q200:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 1-M.Nabers. Play 2057 (:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 1-M.Nabers.
Q200:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers. Play 2080 (:20) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers.
Q200:15 Timeout #1 by WAS at 00:15. Play 2115 Timeout #1 by WAS at 00:15.
Q200:14 (:14) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Mooney. Play 2103 (:14) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Mooney.
Q200:07 Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:07. Play 2151 Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:07.
Q200:07 (:07) 34-D.Zvada 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 2133 (:07) 34-D.Zvada 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q200:02 (:02) 5-J.Daniels kneels to WAS 46 for -1 yards. Play 2161 (:02) 5-J.Daniels kneels to WAS 46 for -1 yards.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2183 Q315:00 19-D.Stevens kicks 50 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 15. 89-C.Jones to NYG 33 for 18 yards (41-J.Jean-Baptiste). Play 2203 19-D.Stevens kicks 50 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 15. 89-C.Jones to NYG 33 for 18 yards (41-J.Jean-Baptiste).
Q314:57 (14:57) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 44 for 11 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 2226 (14:57) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 44 for 11 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q314:18 (14:18) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 49 for 7 yards (99-J.Kinlaw; 20-Q.Martin). Play 2251 (14:18) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 49 for 7 yards (99-J.Kinlaw; 20-Q.Martin).
Q313:33 (13:33) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 44-C.Skattebo left guard to WAS 45 for 4 yards (4-F.Luvu; 52-S.Styles). Play 2273 (13:33) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 44-C.Skattebo left guard to WAS 45 for 4 yards (4-F.Luvu; 52-S.Styles).
Q312:54 (12:54) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 9-I.Likely (29-R.Douglas). Play 2297 (12:54) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 9-I.Likely (29-R.Douglas).
Q312:48 (12:48) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at WAS 31 for 14 yards (52-S.Styles). PENALTY on NYG, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play. Play 2320 (12:48) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at WAS 31 for 14 yards (52-S.Styles). PENALTY on NYG, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play.
Q312:24 (12:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields to WAS 37 for 13 yards (0-M.Sainristil; 20-Q.Martin). Play 2361 (12:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields to WAS 37 for 13 yards (0-M.Sainristil; 20-Q.Martin).
Q311:42 (11:42) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy up the middle to WAS 37 for no gain (4-F.Luvu). Play 2386 (11:42) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy up the middle to WAS 37 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).
Q310:58 (10:58) 34-D.Zvada 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 2408 (10:58) 34-D.Zvada 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q310:54 34-D.Zvada kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 5. 1-R.White to WAS 23 for 18 yards (12-C.Hood; 48-T.Ford). Play 2428 34-D.Zvada kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 5. 1-R.White to WAS 23 for 18 yards (12-C.Hood; 48-T.Ford).
Q310:48 (10:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-A.Williams to WAS 40 for 17 yards (20-G.Newsome). Play 2488 (10:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-A.Williams to WAS 40 for 17 yards (20-G.Newsome).
Q310:07 (10:07) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end to WAS 49 for 9 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 52-A.Reese). Play 2513 (10:07) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end to WAS 49 for 9 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 52-A.Reese).
Q309:29 (9:29) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to NYG 47 for 4 yards (3-A.Carter; 27-T.Nubin). Play 2535 (9:29) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to NYG 47 for 4 yards (3-A.Carter; 27-T.Nubin).
Q308:49 (8:49) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo (27-T.Nubin). PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 47 - No Play. Play 2557 (8:49) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo (27-T.Nubin). PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 47 - No Play.
Q308:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end to NYG 38 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 52-A.Reese). Play 2591 (8:41) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end to NYG 38 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 52-A.Reese).
Q307:56 (7:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2613 (7:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q307:47 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. Play 2636 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q307:47 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 37 for 36 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 2651 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 37 for 36 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q307:40 (7:40) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 17-D.Mooney ran ob at NYG 44 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 2681 (7:40) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 17-D.Mooney ran ob at NYG 44 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q307:18 (7:18) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris left end to WAS 49 for 7 yards (52-S.Styles; 20-Q.Martin). Play 2711 (7:18) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris left end to WAS 49 for 7 yards (52-S.Styles; 20-Q.Martin).
Q306:45 (6:45) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 1-M.Nabers [45-K.Chaisson]. Play 2733 (6:45) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 1-M.Nabers [45-K.Chaisson].
Q306:42 (6:42) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy right end pushed ob at WAS 47 for 2 yards (4-F.Luvu). NYG-72-J.Eluemunor was injured during the play. Play 2756 (6:42) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy right end pushed ob at WAS 47 for 2 yards (4-F.Luvu). NYG-72-J.Eluemunor was injured during the play.
Q306:23 (6:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 29-T.Tracy to WAS 43 for 4 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 2786 (6:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 29-T.Tracy to WAS 43 for 4 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q305:33 (5:33) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy to WAS 22 for 21 yards (39-J.Reaves; 29-R.Douglas). Play 2818 (5:33) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy to WAS 22 for 21 yards (39-J.Reaves; 29-R.Douglas).
Q304:48 (4:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to WAS 17 for 5 yards (92-D.Armstrong; 4-F.Luvu). Play 2848 (4:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to WAS 17 for 5 yards (92-D.Armstrong; 4-F.Luvu).
Q304:09 (4:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers ran ob at WAS 11 for 6 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 2873 (4:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers ran ob at WAS 11 for 6 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q303:40 (3:40) 19-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to WAS 6 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles, 92-D.Armstrong). Play 2919 (3:40) 19-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to WAS 6 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles, 92-D.Armstrong).
Q302:48 (2:48) (Shotgun) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 29-T.Tracy left end to WAS 5 for 1 yard (2-A.Robertson). Play 2941 (2:48) (Shotgun) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 29-T.Tracy left end to WAS 5 for 1 yard (2-A.Robertson).
Q302:01 (2:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 5 - No Play. Play 2965 (2:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 5 - No Play.
Q301:46 (1:46) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 2-A.Robertson at WAS 1. 2-A.Robertson to WAS 26 for 25 yards (17-D.Mooney). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 10 - No Play. Play 2989 (1:46) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 2-A.Robertson at WAS 1. 2-A.Robertson to WAS 26 for 25 yards (17-D.Mooney). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 10 - No Play.
Q301:36 (1:36) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 1-M.Nabers (52-S.Styles). Play 3032 (1:36) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 1-M.Nabers (52-S.Styles).
Q301:28 (1:28) 23-N.Harris left guard to WAS 3 for -2 yards (52-S.Styles). Play 3057 (1:28) 23-N.Harris left guard to WAS 3 for -2 yards (52-S.Styles).
Q300:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3079 (:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q300:44 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 3105 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q300:44 34-D.Zvada kicks 64 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 1. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 19 for 18 yards (12-C.Hood). NYG-12-C.Hood was injured during the play. Play 3120 34-D.Zvada kicks 64 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 1. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 19 for 18 yards (12-C.Hood). NYG-12-C.Hood was injured during the play.
Q300:39 (:39) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end pushed ob at WAS 41 for 22 yards (20-G.Newsome). Play 3158 (:39) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end pushed ob at WAS 41 for 22 yards (20-G.Newsome).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3195 Q415:00 (15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 45 for 14 yards (2-D.Banks). Play 3215 (15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 45 for 14 yards (2-D.Banks).
Q414:20 (14:20) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to NYG 44 for 1 yard (49-T.Edmunds; 2-D.Banks). Play 3240 (14:20) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle to NYG 44 for 1 yard (49-T.Edmunds; 2-D.Banks).
Q413:40 (13:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-R.White to NYG 42 for 2 yards (27-T.Nubin). Play 3267 (13:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-R.White to NYG 42 for 2 yards (27-T.Nubin).
Q413:00 (13:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams to NYG 34 for 8 yards (52-A.Reese) [22-A.Phillips]. NYG-27-T.Nubin was injured during the play. Play 3292 (13:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams to NYG 34 for 8 yards (52-A.Reese) [22-A.Phillips]. NYG-27-T.Nubin was injured during the play.
Q412:34 (12:34) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to NYG 29 for 5 yards (48-T.Ford). Play 3320 (12:34) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to NYG 29 for 5 yards (48-T.Ford).
Q411:59 (11:59) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to NYG 26 for 3 yards (53-J.Ward). Play 3349 (11:59) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right end to NYG 26 for 3 yards (53-J.Ward).
Q411:13 (11:13) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles left tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3376 (11:13) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles left tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q411:05 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Daniels pass to 17-T.McLaurin is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 3399 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Daniels pass to 17-T.McLaurin is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q411:05 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 25 for 24 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 3412 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 25 for 24 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q411:00 (11:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to NYG 35 for 10 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 3442 (11:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to NYG 35 for 10 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q410:35 (10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo to NYG 40 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 3467 (10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo to NYG 40 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q410:04 (10:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson to WAS 39 for 21 yards (39-J.Reaves; 20-Q.Martin). Play 3492 (10:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson to WAS 39 for 21 yards (39-J.Reaves; 20-Q.Martin).
Q409:30 (9:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 27 for 12 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 3517 (9:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 27 for 12 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q408:47 (8:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to WAS 24 for 3 yards (48-J.Josephs). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 24. Play 3542 (8:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to WAS 24 for 3 yards (48-J.Josephs). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 24.
Q408:19 (8:19) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 19 - No Play. Play 3575 (8:19) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 19 - No Play.
Q408:19 (8:19) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 29-T.Tracy. Play 3599 (8:19) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 29-T.Tracy.
Q408:15 (8:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 1-M.Nabers. Play 3622 (8:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 1-M.Nabers.
Q408:10 (8:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 17-D.Mooney to WAS 17 for 7 yards (24-F.Moreau). Play 3645 (8:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 17-D.Mooney to WAS 17 for 7 yards (24-F.Moreau).
Q407:24 Timeout #1 by NYG at 07:24. Play 3682 Timeout #1 by NYG at 07:24.
Q407:24 (7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to WAS 1 for 16 yards (20-Q.Martin, 29-R.Douglas) [45-K.Chaisson]. FUMBLES (29-R.Douglas), RECOVERED by WAS-29-R.Douglas at WAS -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-K.Chaisson]. Play 3670 (7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to WAS 1 for 16 yards (20-Q.Martin, 29-R.Douglas) [45-K.Chaisson]. FUMBLES (29-R.Douglas), RECOVERED by WAS-29-R.Douglas at WAS -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-K.Chaisson].
Q407:20 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 3719 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q407:20 34-D.Zvada kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 5. 1-R.White to WAS 37 for 32 yards (46-Z.Barnes). Play 3734 34-D.Zvada kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 5. 1-R.White to WAS 37 for 32 yards (46-Z.Barnes).
Q407:15 (7:15) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to WAS 38 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader; 52-A.Reese). Play 3762 (7:15) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to WAS 38 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader; 52-A.Reese).
Q406:33 (6:33) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-J.Bates to WAS 39 for 1 yard (24-A.Washington). Play 3784 (6:33) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-J.Bates to WAS 39 for 1 yard (24-A.Washington).
Q405:50 (5:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 33 for -6 yards (22-A.Phillips). Play 3809 (5:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 33 for -6 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Q405:07 (5:07) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 28 for 13 yards (57-A.Keys; 39-J.Reaves). Play 3829 (5:07) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 28 for 13 yards (57-A.Keys; 39-J.Reaves).
Q404:56 (4:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 34 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles; 20-Q.Martin). Play 3855 (4:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 34 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles; 20-Q.Martin).
Q404:25 (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 40 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles; 2-A.Robertson). Play 3880 (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 40 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles; 2-A.Robertson).
Q403:56 (3:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 43 for 3 yards (24-F.Moreau). Play 3905 (3:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 43 for 3 yards (24-F.Moreau).
Q403:25 (3:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers. Play 3934 (3:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers.
Q403:18 (3:18) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 41 for 16 yards (24-F.Moreau). Play 3957 (3:18) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 41 for 16 yards (24-F.Moreau).
Q402:44 (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 38 for 3 yards (4-F.Luvu). Play 3982 (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 38 for 3 yards (4-F.Luvu).
Q402:08 (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields to WAS 31 for 7 yards (24-F.Moreau). Play 4004 (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields to WAS 31 for 7 yards (24-F.Moreau).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers. Play 4029 (2:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers.
Q401:56 (1:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 84-T.Johnson to WAS 17 for 14 yards (20-Q.Martin). WAS-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play. Play 4059 (1:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 84-T.Johnson to WAS 17 for 14 yards (20-Q.Martin). WAS-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play.
Q401:48 Timeout #1 by WAS at 01:48. Play 4099 Timeout #1 by WAS at 01:48.
Q401:48 (1:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4087 (1:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:43 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. ** Injury Update: WAS-99-J.Kinlaw has returned to the game. Play 4158 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. ** Injury Update: WAS-99-J.Kinlaw has returned to the game.
Q401:43 34-D.Zvada kicks 61 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 4. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 27 for 23 yards (24-A.Washington; 83-D.Cambre). Play 4173 34-D.Zvada kicks 61 yards from NYG 35 to WAS 4. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 27 for 23 yards (24-A.Washington; 83-D.Cambre).
Q401:36 (1:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 49 for 22 yards (2-D.Banks). Play 4199 (1:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 49 for 22 yards (2-D.Banks).
Q400:48 (:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo [22-A.Phillips]. Play 4224 (:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo [22-A.Phillips].
Q400:44 (:44) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 46 for -3 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 4247 (:44) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 46 for -3 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q400:20 Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:20. Play 4279 Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:20.
Q400:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Brown. Play 4267 (:20) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Brown.
Q400:15 (:15) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-37-I.Yiadom. Play 4297 (:15) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-37-I.Yiadom.
Q400:06 (:06) 19-J.Winston kneels to NYG 1 for -1 yards. Play 4317 (:06) 19-J.Winston kneels to NYG 1 for -1 yards.
Q400:00 END QUARTER 4 Play 4339 Q510:00 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 1. 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at NYG 33 for 32 yards (80-C.Yankoff). Play 4359 19-D.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 1. 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at NYG 33 for 32 yards (80-C.Yankoff).
Q509:56 (9:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at NYG 40 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on WAS-98-O.Oweh, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 40. Play 4387 (9:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at NYG 40 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on WAS-98-O.Oweh, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 40.
Q509:27 (9:27) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 1-M.Nabers. Play 4428 (9:27) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 1-M.Nabers.
Q509:24 Timeout #1 by WAS at 09:24. Play 4475 Timeout #1 by WAS at 09:24.
Q509:24 (9:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers (24-F.Moreau). Play 4463 (9:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers (24-F.Moreau).
Q509:20 (9:20) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles right end to WAS 30 for 15 yards (2-A.Robertson). Play 4493 (9:20) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles right end to WAS 30 for 15 yards (2-A.Robertson).
Q508:47 (8:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at WAS 28 for 2 yards (4-F.Luvu). Play 4515 (8:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at WAS 28 for 2 yards (4-F.Luvu).
Q508:10 (8:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 9-I.Likely [92-D.Armstrong]. Play 4545 (8:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 9-I.Likely [92-D.Armstrong].
Q508:05 Timeout #1 by NYG at 08:05. Play 4580 Timeout #1 by NYG at 08:05.
Q508:05 (8:05) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Mooney (2-A.Robertson). Play 4568 (8:05) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Mooney (2-A.Robertson).
Q508:01 (8:01) 34-D.Zvada 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 4598 (8:01) 34-D.Zvada 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q507:57 (7:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 13-T.Burks to WAS 49 for 13 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 4619 (7:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 13-T.Burks to WAS 49 for 13 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q507:20 (7:20) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to NYG 48 for 3 yards (93-S.Harris; 98-D.Reader). Play 4644 (7:20) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to NYG 48 for 3 yards (93-S.Harris; 98-D.Reader).
Q506:36 (6:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 13-T.Burks. Play 4666 (6:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 13-T.Burks.
Q506:32 Timeout #2 by WAS at 06:32. Play 4701 Timeout #2 by WAS at 06:32.
Q506:32 (6:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 6-D.Brown to NYG 46 for 2 yards (3-A.Carter). FUMBLES (3-A.Carter), and recovers at NYG 46. Play 4689 (6:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 6-D.Brown to NYG 46 for 2 yards (3-A.Carter). FUMBLES (3-A.Carter), and recovers at NYG 46.
Q505:43 (5:43) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 46 - No Play. Play 4737 (5:43) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 46 - No Play.
Q505:39 (5:39) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 89-C.Jones. Play 4761 (5:39) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.
Q505:33 (5:33) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Johnson [92-D.Armstrong]. Play 4781 (5:33) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Johnson [92-D.Armstrong].
Q505:29 (5:29) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 17 for 8 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 4804 (5:29) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 17 for 8 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q504:46 (4:46) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo right end pushed ob at NYG 36 for 19 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Play 4829 (4:46) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo right end pushed ob at NYG 36 for 19 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
Q504:40 (4:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 36 for 28 yards (20-Q.Martin). Play 4856 (4:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 36 for 28 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q504:01 Timeout #2 by NYG at 04:01. Play 4893 Timeout #2 by NYG at 04:01.
Q504:01 (4:01) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 38 for -2 yards (29-R.Douglas). Play 4881 (4:01) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 38 for -2 yards (29-R.Douglas).
Q503:17 (3:17) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to WAS 29 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves). Play 4913 (3:17) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to WAS 29 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q502:35 (2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for 5 yards (91-D.Wise). Play 4935 (2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for 5 yards (91-D.Wise).
Q502:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (94-D.Payne; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-96-S.Tuttle at WAS 23. Play 4957 (2:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (94-D.Payne; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-96-S.Tuttle at WAS 23.
Q501:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at WAS 39 for 16 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 5002 (1:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at WAS 39 for 16 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q501:50 (1:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams to WAS 45 for 6 yards (22-A.Phillips). Play 5032 (1:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams to WAS 45 for 6 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Q501:09 (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at NYG 39 for 16 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 5057 (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at NYG 39 for 16 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q501:02 (1:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 13-T.Burks pushed ob at NYG 26 for 13 yards (22-A.Phillips). Play 5084 (1:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 13-T.Burks pushed ob at NYG 26 for 13 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Q500:55 (:55) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to NYG 24 for 2 yards (91-D.Alexander). Play 5114 (:55) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to NYG 24 for 2 yards (91-D.Alexander).
Q500:12 (:12) 5-J.Daniels sacked at NYG 24 for 0 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 5136 (:12) 5-J.Daniels sacked at NYG 24 for 0 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Roof
outdoors
Game seconds remaining 2386
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS -0.53 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2386
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 9
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2386
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:26 Penalty · NYG (9:26) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. PENALTY on NYG-64-A.Stinnie, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 2.72 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 3266
Half seconds remaining 1466
Quarter seconds remaining 566
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 3266
Half seconds remaining 1466
Quarter seconds remaining 566
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 0.68 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 3266
Half seconds remaining 1466
Quarter seconds remaining 566
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 3266
Half seconds remaining 1466
Quarter seconds remaining 566
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q203:40 Penalty · WAS (3:40) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS -2.64 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 11
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 85
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2020
Half seconds remaining 220
Quarter seconds remaining 220
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 6
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 80
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2020
Half seconds remaining 220
Quarter seconds remaining 220
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS -0.5 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 11
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 85
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2020
Half seconds remaining 220
Quarter seconds remaining 220
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 6
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 80
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 2020
Half seconds remaining 220
Quarter seconds remaining 220
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q103:47 Fourth down · NYG (3:47) 15-J.Stout punts 55 yards to WAS 13, Center-58-B.Mann. 14-A.Williams to WAS 15 for 2 yards (46-Z.Barnes). + Fourth down decision cost NYG 2.29 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.656960981876029
Yardline 100 68
Elapsed share 0.1869444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2927
Half seconds remaining 1127
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 227
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2704605289317338 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27046/ NA/0.24753 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:49 Penalty · WAS (8:49) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo (27-T.Nubin). PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 2.11 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1421
Half seconds remaining 1421
Quarter seconds remaining 521
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1421
Half seconds remaining 1421
Quarter seconds remaining 521
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 0.76 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 42
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1421
Half seconds remaining 1421
Quarter seconds remaining 521
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1421
Half seconds remaining 1421
Quarter seconds remaining 521
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q206:18 Penalty · NYG (6:18) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-9-I.Likely, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 1.7 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2178
Half seconds remaining 378
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 5
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 57
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2178
Half seconds remaining 378
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 0.56 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 62
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2178
Half seconds remaining 378
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 5
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 57
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 2178
Half seconds remaining 378
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q302:01 Penalty · NYG (2:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 5 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 1.34 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 9
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 10
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1021
Half seconds remaining 1021
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 4
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1021
Half seconds remaining 1021
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 0.59 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 9
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 10
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1021
Half seconds remaining 1021
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 4
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1021
Half seconds remaining 1021
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q209:46 Penalty · WAS (9:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-1-R.White, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 14 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS -0.79 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 19
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2386
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2386
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS -0.54 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 19
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2386
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2386
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q408:19 Penalty · NYG (8:19) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS 0.57 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 499
Half seconds remaining 499
Quarter seconds remaining 499
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 499
Half seconds remaining 499
Quarter seconds remaining 499
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence WAS 0.63 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 499
Half seconds remaining 499
Quarter seconds remaining 499
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -14
Game seconds remaining 499
Half seconds remaining 499
Quarter seconds remaining 499
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q107:15 Kick · NYG (7:15) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 2.087769563932389
Yardline 100 32
Elapsed share 0.1291666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3135
Half seconds remaining 1335
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 435
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.318311100534924 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28707/0.31831/0.27502 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG -4.9 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q106:00 Fourth down · WAS (6:00) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 24 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.920840726329092
Yardline 100 64
Elapsed share 0.15
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3060
Half seconds remaining 1260
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 360
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7115065488552209 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67319/ NA/0.71151 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:00 Kick · NYG (1:00) 34-D.Zvada 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.376342523040094
Yardline 100 33
Elapsed share 0.2333333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -6
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2760
Half seconds remaining 960
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 60
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2896041656085124 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28352/0.28960/0.25985 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG -4.9 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 31 recorded events Q209:00 Kick · WAS (9:00) 19-D.Stevens 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.8630893737956227
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.35
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2340
Half seconds remaining 540
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 540
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.6783382372501684 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.67071/0.67834/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation WAS 0.37 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q205:07 Fourth down · NYG (5:07) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to WAS 16, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 14-A.Williams. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 23
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.6662262706686645
Yardline 100 75
Elapsed share 0.4147222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q203:01 Fourth down · WAS (3:01) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 45 for 16 yards (36-D.Hall; 82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-39-J.Reaves has returned to the game. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.5791892950448372
Yardline 100 84
Elapsed share 0.4497222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam WAS
Q201:06 Kick · WAS (1:06) 19-D.Stevens 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.5097149158062731
Yardline 100 22
Elapsed share 0.4816666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q200:07 Kick · NYG (:07) 34-D.Zvada 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.4773719828609062
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.4980555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q405:07 Fourth down · WAS (5:07) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 28 for 13 yards (57-A.Keys; 39-J.Reaves). + Fourth down decision cost WAS 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam WAS
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.09016392104061588
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.9147222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam WAS
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q113:00 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Extra point points above expectation WAS -0.92 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q109:47 Penalty · NYG (9:47) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 17-D.Mooney to 50 for -5 yards (97-T.Settle). NYG-17-D.Mooney was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-92-D.Armstrong, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:03 Penalty · NYG (9:03) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely to WAS 28 for 7 yards (2-A.Robertson). PENALTY on NYG-9-I.Likely, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:46 Fourth down · WAS (2:46) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to NYG 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 45 for 11 yards (80-C.Yankoff). + Fourth down decision cost WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:05 Fourth down · WAS (9:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Burks. Penalty on WAS-74-B.Coleman, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:07 Penalty · NYG (8:07) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 22 for -11 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-29-R.Douglas, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 33 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:08 Fumble · NYG (2:08) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (45-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (45-K.Chaisson), touched at NYG 39, RECOVERED by WAS-97-T.Settle at NYG 28. 97-T.Settle to NYG 27 for 1 yard (72-J.Eluemunor). + Fumble recoveries above expectation WAS 1.5 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NYG -1.5 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q200:31 Fourth down · NYG (:31) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to WAS 39 for 12 yards (2-A.Robertson). Penalty on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:48 Penalty · NYG (12:48) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at WAS 31 for 14 yards (52-S.Styles). PENALTY on NYG, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q310:58 Kick · NYG (10:58) 34-D.Zvada 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 1.12 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.3619946231680818
Yardline 100 37
Elapsed share 0.5672222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q307:47 Kick · WAS 19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. + Extra point points above expectation WAS -0.92 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q305:33 Fourth down · NYG (5:33) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy to WAS 22 for 21 yards (39-J.Reaves; 29-R.Douglas). + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.2522746178356813
Yardline 100 43
Elapsed share 0.6575
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q301:46 Penalty · NYG (1:46) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 2-A.Robertson at WAS 1. 2-A.Robertson to WAS 26 for 25 yards (17-D.Mooney). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 10 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q300:44 Kick · NYG 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Extra point points above expectation NYG 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q408:47 Penalty · NYG (8:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to WAS 24 for 3 yards (48-J.Josephs). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 24. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:24 Fourth down · NYG (7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to WAS 1 for 16 yards (20-Q.Martin, 29-R.Douglas) [45-K.Chaisson]. FUMBLES (29-R.Douglas), RECOVERED by WAS-29-R.Douglas at WAS -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-K.Chaisson]. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team NYG
Home team WAS
Away total 19
Home total 22.5
Total line 41.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.104988579839691
Yardline 100 17
Elapsed share 0.8766666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko Q407:20 Kick · NYG 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Extra point points above expectation NYG 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q401:43 Kick · NYG 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. ** Injury Update: WAS-99-J.Kinlaw has returned to the game. + Extra point points above expectation NYG 0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q400:15 Fourth down · WAS (:15) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-37-I.Yiadom. + Fourth down decision cost WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q509:56 Penalty · NYG (9:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at NYG 40 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on WAS-98-O.Oweh, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 40. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q508:01 Kick · NYG (8:01) 34-D.Zvada 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG -4.9 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q506:32 Fumble · WAS (6:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 6-D.Brown to NYG 46 for 2 yards (3-A.Carter). FUMBLES (3-A.Carter), and recovers at NYG 46. + Fumble recoveries above expectation WAS 1.5 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NYG -1.5 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q505:43 Penalty · WAS (5:43) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q505:39 Fourth down · WAS (5:39) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 89-C.Jones. + Fourth down decision cost WAS Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q502:00 Fumble · NYG (2:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (94-D.Payne; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-96-S.Tuttle at WAS 23. + Fumble recoveries above expectation WAS 1.5 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NYG -1.5 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 160870855781141553c2160785280eddbd2d358b0f57ca161b36e9342a3d1e00
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Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC
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Retrieved Oct 11, 2026, 10:04 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 df8d708a393390c5259200ea5fe7f730afac1469a5a2efd2285a19ba4999decfModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 76b29397459919e299ab2934d1d6972644e3865dbe962b56e152587c31d13fec
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 1 · Latest ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 11, 2026, 10:13 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-6
Game seconds remaining 2107
Half seconds remaining 307
Quarter seconds remaining 307
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2366050849664041 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19653/ NA/0.23661 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home receive 2h ko
-1
Game seconds remaining 1981
Half seconds remaining 181
Quarter seconds remaining 181
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6769138849613087 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64576/ NA/0.67691 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
6
Game seconds remaining 1866
Quarter seconds remaining 66
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7751854822901226 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76208/0.77519/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation WAS 0.37 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
-9
Game seconds remaining 1807
Quarter seconds remaining 7
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.1735268928373151 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15538/0.17353/0.15070 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG -4.9 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 307
Half seconds remaining 307
Quarter seconds remaining 307
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8686139388816324 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80492/ NA/0.86861 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-9
Game seconds remaining 1558
Half seconds remaining 1558
Quarter seconds remaining 658
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1765627978635231 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17656/0.16536/0.14203 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG -4.9 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-13
Game seconds remaining 1233
Half seconds remaining 1233
Quarter seconds remaining 333
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.07235697028778657 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07236/0.06959/0.06119 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 444
Half seconds remaining 444
Quarter seconds remaining 444
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.02528928105850049 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.02529/0.02481/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled