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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: TB by 15.5; actual result: TB by 8.
The 7.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 304 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 DAL minus TB penalty-count difference: -7 versus 0.1 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 115 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 44.62%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: DAL by 9.5; actual result: TB by 8. The difference was 17.5 points.
1,397 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 57.63%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Dallas Cowboys by 9.5
Final margin Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8
Difference 17.5 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
1,397 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (19.2%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score TB by 15.5
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Dallas Cowboys chance to win during the game 147 preplay estimates across 172 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 25 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence 4.56 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 3 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 02:50 Recorded game event
Dallas Cowboys · Play 3985 (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish) [51-D.Walker]. PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 44 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.0 percentage points across this play.
Q1 · 04:27 Recorded game event
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Play 615 (4:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at DAL 47 for -12 yards (50-S.James). PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 35 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on DAL awarded TB a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.7 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 15:00 Recorded game event
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Play 3189 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (28-S.Revel). ** Injury Update: DAL-28-S.Revel has returned to the game. PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 45 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 172 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 172 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to DAL 3. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 30 for 27 yards (52-C.Rozeboom). Play 40 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to DAL 3. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 30 for 27 yards (52-C.Rozeboom).
Q114:54 (14:54) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Spann-Ford (52-C.Rozeboom). Play 68 (14:54) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Spann-Ford (52-C.Rozeboom).
Q114:48 (14:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to DAL 38 for 8 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 91 (14:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to DAL 38 for 8 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q114:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 46 for 8 yards (25-J.Parrish). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 36 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q111:02 Penalty · DAL (11:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Ferguson. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at TB 4 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL 4.56 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 1
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3358
Half seconds remaining 1558
Quarter seconds remaining 658
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 6, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b1ad41534acead81eb82096e1c09b470bc6b59d56271d6420e7aa76c82aeb0d4ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 9, 2026, 12:22 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 4e23c0989c2b7754d37ba62c42b3fceb88f5f68a6b318bef1fd1c78997d3a60bnflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 9, 2026, 4:36 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 cc468798633810afaddf42f1d1fdd5b081a33138387723e65854f89e1aab5a71TB by 8
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
304 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 115 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Alex Moore Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 16 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 16.1 accepted penalties for 127.2 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 7.7 / 60.3 yd per game. Away teams: 8.4 / 66.9 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Alex Moore; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Dallas Cowboys · Opponent penalties Opponent TB was charged 14 penalties for 92 yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Opponent penalties Opponent DAL was charged 7 penalties for 57 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 147 model estimates across 172 recorded game entries.
25 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (172 entries) Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence 1.8 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence -3.77 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence -1.41 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence -1.4 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence -0.68 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence 4.22 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence 1.07 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence 0.01 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence 0.5 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence 1.18 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence 0.74 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence -2.4 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence -3.81 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence 0.31 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence 0.86 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence 0.8 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Ruling expected points consequence 0.51 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69553/ NA/0.70622 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70141/0.68024/0.70798 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28989/0.26910/0.29706 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63683/ NA/0.66707 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28502/0.23774/0.28776 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73624/0.76260/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74184/0.78771/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17303/ NA/0.11955 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97969/0.95814/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82525/ NA/0.86123 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
DAL Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
TB Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
DAL Field goal points above expectation 0.31 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
TB Field goal points above expectation 0.31 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DAL Extra point points above expectation 0.03 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
TB Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 54th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
DAL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
TB Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 172 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
DAL Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.05 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.98 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
61 of 61 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 61 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.64 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 29 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.62 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
29 of 29 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 29 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Presnap called penalties above expectation 3.43 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
76 of 76 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 5 across 76 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 3.65 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
76 of 76 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 5 across 76 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.51 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Defensive penalty on DAL awarded TB a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.4 percentage points across this play.
Play 116
(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 46 for 8 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q113:53 (13:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter; 3-R.Bain). Play 141 (13:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter; 3-R.Bain).
Q113:19 (13:19) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 29 for 21 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 163 (13:19) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 29 for 21 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q112:41 (12:41) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens to TB 8 for 21 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 185 (12:41) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens to TB 8 for 21 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q111:56 (11:56) 33-J.Williams left tackle to TB 7 for 1 yard (0-Y.Diaby; 92-E.Simmons). PENALTY on TB-51-D.Walker, Defensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at TB 8 - No Play. Play 210 (11:56) 33-J.Williams left tackle to TB 7 for 1 yard (0-Y.Diaby; 92-E.Simmons). PENALTY on TB-51-D.Walker, Defensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at TB 8 - No Play.
Q111:37 (11:37) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 4 for no gain (51-D.Walker; 91-A.Robinson). Play 243 (11:37) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 4 for no gain (51-D.Walker; 91-A.Robinson).
Q111:02 (11:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Ferguson. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at TB 4 - No Play. Play 265 (11:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Ferguson. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at TB 4 - No Play.
Q110:58 (10:58) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish). Play 299 (10:58) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish).
Q110:53 (10:53) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 322 (10:53) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q110:51 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 345 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q110:51 17-B.Aubrey kicks 55 yards from DAL 35 to TB 10. 19-K.Johnson to TB 27 for 17 yards (43-J.Thomas; 89-B.Spann-Ford). Play 360 17-B.Aubrey kicks 55 yards from DAL 35 to TB 10. 19-K.Johnson to TB 27 for 17 yards (43-J.Thomas; 89-B.Spann-Ford).
Q110:44 (10:44) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at TB 30 for 3 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 390 (10:44) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at TB 30 for 3 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q110:12 (10:12) 14-C.Godwin right tackle to TB 33 for 3 yards (53-D.Winters; 6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 420 (10:12) 14-C.Godwin right tackle to TB 33 for 3 yards (53-D.Winters; 6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q109:33 (9:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end to TB 38 for 5 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 442 (9:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end to TB 38 for 5 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q108:48 (8:48) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 48 for 10 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 474 (8:48) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 48 for 10 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q108:06 (8:06) 7-B.Irving left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham; 24-M.Hooker). Play 499 (8:06) 7-B.Irving left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham; 24-M.Hooker).
Q107:22 (7:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to DAL 44 for 6 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 521 (7:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to DAL 44 for 6 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q106:38 (6:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to DAL 40 for 4 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 543 (6:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to DAL 40 for 4 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q105:50 (5:50) 7-B.Irving right guard to DAL 38 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham; 45-J.Barron). Play 568 (5:50) 7-B.Irving right guard to DAL 38 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham; 45-J.Barron).
Q105:08 (5:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to DAL 35 for 3 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 590 (5:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to DAL 35 for 3 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q104:27 (4:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at DAL 47 for -12 yards (50-S.James). PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 35 - No Play. Play 615 (4:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at DAL 47 for -12 yards (50-S.James). PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 35 - No Play.
Q103:52 (3:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end pushed ob at DAL 27 for 3 yards (28-S.Revel). PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 30 - No Play. Play 646 (3:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end pushed ob at DAL 27 for 3 yards (28-S.Revel). PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 30 - No Play.
Q103:23 (3:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 84-B.Sharp (50-S.James, 28-S.Revel) [13-C.Downs]. PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 40 - No Play. Play 684 (3:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 84-B.Sharp (50-S.James, 28-S.Revel) [13-C.Downs]. PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 40 - No Play.
Q103:12 (3:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 21 for 14 yards (50-S.James). Play 718 (3:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 21 for 14 yards (50-S.James).
Q102:30 (2:30) 7-B.Irving right end to DAL 19 for 2 yards (53-D.Winters, 14-M.Bell). Play 743 (2:30) 7-B.Irving right end to DAL 19 for 2 yards (53-D.Winters, 14-M.Bell).
Q101:45 (1:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 15 for 4 yards (28-S.Revel). Play 765 (1:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 15 for 4 yards (28-S.Revel).
Q101:07 Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:07. Play 802 Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:07.
Q101:07 (1:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to DAL 9 for 6 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 790 (1:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to DAL 9 for 6 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q100:26 (:26) 7-B.Irving left guard to DAL 10 for -1 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia, 55-J.Barham). Play 823 (:26) 7-B.Irving left guard to DAL 10 for -1 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia, 55-J.Barham).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 845 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-7-R.Gary, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10 - No Play. Play 865 (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-7-R.Gary, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10 - No Play.
Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 7-B.Irving for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 889 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 7-B.Irving for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q214:53 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 915 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q214:53 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 63 yards from TB 35 to DAL 2. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for 30 yards (5-I.Melifonwu). Play 930 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 63 yards from TB 35 to DAL 2. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for 30 yards (5-I.Melifonwu).
Q214:48 (14:48) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 37 for 5 yards (50-V.Vea). Play 960 (14:48) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 37 for 5 yards (50-V.Vea).
Q214:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 44 for 7 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Play 982 (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 44 for 7 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
Q213:56 (13:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 46 for 2 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 3-R.Bain). Play 1012 (13:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 46 for 2 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 3-R.Bain).
Q213:20 (13:20) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 44 for -2 yards (45-J.Trotter, 0-Y.Diaby). Play 1037 (13:20) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 44 for -2 yards (45-J.Trotter, 0-Y.Diaby).
Q212:42 (12:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish). Play 1059 (12:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish).
Q212:36 (12:36) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to TB 3, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds. Play 1082 (12:36) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to TB 3, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
Q212:26 (12:26) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton. Play 1101 (12:26) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton.
Q212:21 (12:21) 1-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 5 for 2 yards (92-Q.Williams; 91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 1131 (12:21) 1-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 5 for 2 yards (92-Q.Williams; 91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q211:40 (11:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 8 for 3 yards (27-R.Steward; 6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 1153 (11:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 8 for 3 yards (27-R.Steward; 6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q211:09 (11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 49, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson. PENALTY on DAL-50-S.James, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 49. Play 1178 (11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 49, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson. PENALTY on DAL-50-S.James, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 49.
Q211:00 (11:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams to 50 for 9 yards (25-J.Parrish; 45-J.Trotter). Play 1209 (11:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams to 50 for 9 yards (25-J.Parrish; 45-J.Trotter).
Q210:23 (10:23) 33-J.Williams left tackle to TB 47 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 1241 (10:23) 33-J.Williams left tackle to TB 47 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q209:37 Timeout #2 by DAL at 09:37. Play 1275 Timeout #2 by DAL at 09:37.
Q209:37 (9:37) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (27-Z.McCollum). Play 1263 (9:37) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (27-Z.McCollum).
Q209:32 (9:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb. Play 1293 (9:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb.
Q209:29 (9:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb. Play 1316 (9:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb.
Q209:20 (9:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson. Play 1339 (9:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.
Q209:13 (9:13) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 12 for 2 yards (7-R.Gary). PENALTY on DAL-91-O.Ogbonnia, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 12. Play 1359 (9:13) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 12 for 2 yards (7-R.Gary). PENALTY on DAL-91-O.Ogbonnia, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 12.
Q208:47 (8:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-P.Durham pushed ob at TB 32 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 1399 (8:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-P.Durham pushed ob at TB 32 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q208:19 (8:19) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 36 for 4 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 1429 (8:19) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 36 for 4 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q207:34 (7:34) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to TB 41 for 5 yards (7-R.Gary). Play 1451 (7:34) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to TB 41 for 5 yards (7-R.Gary).
Q206:55 (6:55) 7-B.Irving right tackle to DAL 48 for 11 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 1473 (6:55) 7-B.Irving right tackle to DAL 48 for 11 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q206:10 (6:10) 7-B.Irving right tackle to DAL 46 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham; 24-M.Hooker). Play 1495 (6:10) 7-B.Irving right tackle to DAL 46 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham; 24-M.Hooker).
Q205:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right tackle to DAL 39 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 1517 (5:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right tackle to DAL 39 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q205:05 (5:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-78-T.Wirfs, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 39 - No Play. Play 1544 (5:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-78-T.Wirfs, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 39 - No Play.
Q204:43 (4:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left tackle to DAL 43 for 1 yard (53-D.Winters; 57-M.Lawrence). Play 1568 (4:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left tackle to DAL 43 for 1 yard (53-D.Winters; 57-M.Lawrence).
Q203:47 (3:47) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 43 - No Play. Play 1590 (3:47) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 43 - No Play.
Q203:47 (3:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. Play 1620 (3:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
Q203:40 (3:40) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 11 for -2 yards (91-A.Robinson). PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 13 - No Play. Play 1640 (3:40) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 11 for -2 yards (91-A.Robinson). PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 13 - No Play.
Q203:28 (3:28) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Spann-Ford. Play 1680 (3:28) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Spann-Ford.
Q203:23 (3:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 9-K.Turpin (22-K.Scott). Play 1703 (3:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 9-K.Turpin (22-K.Scott).
Q203:20 (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (27-Z.McCollum). Play 1726 (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (27-Z.McCollum).
Q203:15 (3:15) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TB 36, Center-44-T.Sieg. 15-T.Johnson to TB 48 for 12 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker). Play 1749 (3:15) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TB 36, Center-44-T.Sieg. 15-T.Johnson to TB 48 for 12 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).
Q203:03 (3:03) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Otton. PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 48 - No Play. Play 1775 (3:03) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Otton. PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 48 - No Play.
Q202:56 (2:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right end to TB 49 for 11 yards (7-R.Gary). Play 1809 (2:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right end to TB 49 for 11 yards (7-R.Gary).
Q202:14 (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Irving. Play 1831 (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Irving.
Q202:07 (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 2-E.Egbuka (14-M.Bell). Play 1854 (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 2-E.Egbuka (14-M.Bell).
Q202:00 (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. Play 1888 (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
Q201:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-R.Flournoy to TB 39 for 48 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 23-T.Smith). Play 1915 (1:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-R.Flournoy to TB 39 for 48 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 23-T.Smith).
Q201:23 (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 32 for 7 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 1940 (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 32 for 7 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q200:58 (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-3-R.Bain, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at TB 32 - No Play. Play 1965 (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-3-R.Bain, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at TB 32 - No Play.
Q200:58 (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Ferguson. Play 1989 (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Ferguson.
Q200:54 (:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to TB 23 for 4 yards (22-K.Scott) [23-T.Smith]. Play 2012 (:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to TB 23 for 4 yards (22-K.Scott) [23-T.Smith].
Q200:30 (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 33-J.Williams [51-D.Walker]. Play 2037 (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 33-J.Williams [51-D.Walker].
Q200:26 (:26) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 2060 (:26) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q200:21 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to TB 0. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 29 yards (30-H.Luepke). Play 2080 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to TB 0. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 29 yards (30-H.Luepke).
Q200:15 (:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka. Play 2103 (:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.
Q200:09 (:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell pushed ob at TB 44 for 15 yards (23-A.Speed). Play 2126 (:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell pushed ob at TB 44 for 15 yards (23-A.Speed).
Q200:01 Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:01. Play 2168 Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:01.
Q200:01 (:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 37 for 19 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 2156 (:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 37 for 19 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2188 Q315:00 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to TB 9. 19-K.Johnson to TB 26 for 17 yards (13-C.Downs). PENALTY on TB-84-B.Sharp, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24. Play 2208 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to TB 9. 19-K.Johnson to TB 26 for 17 yards (13-C.Downs). PENALTY on TB-84-B.Sharp, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24.
Q314:54 (14:54) 7-B.Irving left tackle pushed ob at DAL 14 for 72 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 2242 (14:54) 7-B.Irving left tackle pushed ob at DAL 14 for 72 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q314:04 (14:04) 2-E.Egbuka left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2269 (14:04) 2-E.Egbuka left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q314:00 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 2292 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q314:00 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 58 yards from TB 35 to DAL 7. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 32 for 25 yards (51-D.Walker; 52-C.Rozeboom). Play 2307 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 58 yards from TB 35 to DAL 7. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 32 for 25 yards (51-D.Walker; 52-C.Rozeboom).
Q313:55 (13:55) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 30 for -2 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 2342 (13:55) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 30 for -2 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q313:21 (13:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-L.Schoonmaker to DAL 39 for 9 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 5-I.Melifonwu). Play 2364 (13:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-L.Schoonmaker to DAL 39 for 9 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 5-I.Melifonwu).
Q312:45 (12:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 34 for 27 yards (5-I.Melifonwu). Play 2389 (12:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 34 for 27 yards (5-I.Melifonwu).
Q312:07 (12:07) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 32 for 2 yards (94-C.Kancey; 34-A.Anzalone). Play 2419 (12:07) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 32 for 2 yards (94-C.Kancey; 34-A.Anzalone).
Q311:32 (11:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to TB 27 for 5 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 2441 (11:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to TB 27 for 5 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q310:51 (10:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 19-R.Flournoy INTERCEPTED by 0-Y.Diaby at TB 24. 0-Y.Diaby to TB 25 for 1 yard (56-C.Beebe; 52-T.Booker). Play 2466 (10:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 19-R.Flournoy INTERCEPTED by 0-Y.Diaby at TB 24. 0-Y.Diaby to TB 25 for 1 yard (56-C.Beebe; 52-T.Booker).
Q310:43 (10:43) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 31 for 6 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 25 - No Play. Play 2493 (10:43) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 31 for 6 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 25 - No Play.
Q310:17 (10:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell left guard to TB 21 for 6 yards (97-K.Clark; 7-R.Gary). Play 2533 (10:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell left guard to TB 21 for 6 yards (97-K.Clark; 7-R.Gary).
Q309:36 (9:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at DAL 15 for 64 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 2555 (9:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at DAL 15 for 64 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q308:56 (8:56) 7-B.Irving right tackle to DAL 6 for 9 yards (23-A.Speed; 7-R.Gary). Play 2585 (8:56) 7-B.Irving right tackle to DAL 6 for 9 yards (23-A.Speed; 7-R.Gary).
Q308:13 (8:13) 7-B.Irving left guard to DAL 1 for 5 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku; 55-J.Barham). Play 2607 (8:13) 7-B.Irving left guard to DAL 1 for 5 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku; 55-J.Barham).
Q307:35 (7:35) 7-B.Irving left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2629 (7:35) 7-B.Irving left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q307:31 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 2652 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q307:31 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 28 for 24 yards (29-M.Killebrew). FUMBLES (29-M.Killebrew), RECOVERED by TB-38-K.Knowles at DAL 37. Play 2667 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 28 for 24 yards (29-M.Killebrew). FUMBLES (29-M.Killebrew), RECOVERED by TB-38-K.Knowles at DAL 37.
Q307:24 (7:24) 10-J.Daniels sacked at DAL 48 for -11 yards (57-M.Lawrence). Play 2713 (7:24) 10-J.Daniels sacked at DAL 48 for -11 yards (57-M.Lawrence).
Q306:37 (6:37) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Gainwell (57-M.Lawrence). Play 2733 (6:37) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Gainwell (57-M.Lawrence).
Q306:31 (6:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka to DAL 27 for 21 yards (26-D.Bland). The first down was assisted by replay. Play 2756 (6:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka to DAL 27 for 21 yards (26-D.Bland). The first down was assisted by replay.
Q306:01 (6:01) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to DAL 16 for 11 yards (50-S.James; 28-S.Revel). DAL-28-S.Revel was injured during the play. Play 2784 (6:01) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to DAL 16 for 11 yards (50-S.James; 28-S.Revel). DAL-28-S.Revel was injured during the play.
Q305:25 (5:25) PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 16 - No Play. Play 2809 (5:25) PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 16 - No Play.
Q305:09 (5:09) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to DAL 26 for -5 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 2843 (5:09) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to DAL 26 for -5 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q304:25 (4:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right tackle to DAL 23 for 3 yards (7-R.Gary). Play 2872 (4:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right tackle to DAL 23 for 3 yards (7-R.Gary).
Q303:42 (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell to DAL 23 for no gain (6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 2894 (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell to DAL 23 for no gain (6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q303:02 (3:02) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 2919 (3:02) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q302:58 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 25 for 21 yards (84-B.Sharp). Play 2939 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 25 for 21 yards (84-B.Sharp).
Q302:52 (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 36 for 11 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 2969 (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 36 for 11 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q302:31 (2:31) (No Huddle) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 43 for 7 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 2994 (2:31) (No Huddle) 33-J.Williams left tackle to DAL 43 for 7 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q301:58 (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 9-K.Turpin. Play 3016 (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 9-K.Turpin.
Q301:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish) [23-T.Smith]. Play 3039 (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish) [23-T.Smith].
Q301:49 (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Ferguson. Play 3062 (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Ferguson.
Q301:46 (1:46) 44-S.Tucker left tackle to DAL 37 for 5 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 3085 (1:46) 44-S.Tucker left tackle to DAL 37 for 5 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q301:03 (1:03) 44-S.Tucker right end to DAL 33 for 4 yards (24-M.Hooker; 13-C.Downs). PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 37 - No Play. Play 3114 (1:03) 44-S.Tucker right end to DAL 33 for 4 yards (24-M.Hooker; 13-C.Downs). PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 37 - No Play.
Q300:37 (:37) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to DAL 45 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham). Play 3147 (:37) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to DAL 45 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3169 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (28-S.Revel). ** Injury Update: DAL-28-S.Revel has returned to the game. PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 45 - No Play. Play 3189 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (28-S.Revel). ** Injury Update: DAL-28-S.Revel has returned to the game. PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 45 - No Play.
Q414:56 (14:56) PENALTY on TB-88-C.Otton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 38 - No Play. Play 3223 (14:56) PENALTY on TB-88-C.Otton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 38 - No Play.
Q414:56 (14:56) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker right guard to DAL 37 for 6 yards (53-D.Winters; 91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 3250 (14:56) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker right guard to DAL 37 for 6 yards (53-D.Winters; 91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q414:08 (14:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 7-B.Irving to DAL 32 for 5 yards (99-L.Overton). Play 3272 (14:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 7-B.Irving to DAL 32 for 5 yards (99-L.Overton).
Q413:24 (13:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end ran ob at DAL 23 for 9 yards (53-D.Winters). Play 3297 (13:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end ran ob at DAL 23 for 9 yards (53-D.Winters).
Q412:45 (12:45) 7-B.Irving right tackle to DAL 17 for 6 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 3324 (12:45) 7-B.Irving right tackle to DAL 17 for 6 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q412:01 (12:01) 7-B.Irving right end pushed ob at DAL 14 for 3 yards (23-A.Speed). Play 3346 (12:01) 7-B.Irving right end pushed ob at DAL 14 for 3 yards (23-A.Speed).
Q411:26 (11:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to DAL 10 for 4 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 3373 (11:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to DAL 10 for 4 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q410:43 (10:43) 7-B.Irving up the middle to DAL 7 for 3 yards (13-C.Downs; 53-D.Winters). Play 3404 (10:43) 7-B.Irving up the middle to DAL 7 for 3 yards (13-C.Downs; 53-D.Winters).
Q410:02 (10:02) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 3 for 4 yards (50-S.James). Play 3426 (10:02) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at DAL 3 for 4 yards (50-S.James).
Q409:23 (9:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to DAL 1 for 2 yards (27-R.Steward). Play 3453 (9:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to DAL 1 for 2 yards (27-R.Steward).
Q408:36 Timeout #1 by TB at 08:36. Play 3490 Timeout #1 by TB at 08:36.
Q408:36 (8:36) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to DAL 1 for no gain (55-J.Barham). Play 3478 (8:36) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to DAL 1 for no gain (55-J.Barham).
Q408:32 (8:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 17 for 16 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 3514 (8:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 17 for 16 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q408:04 (8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for 15 yards (5-I.Melifonwu) [94-C.Kancey]. Play 3544 (8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for 15 yards (5-I.Melifonwu) [94-C.Kancey].
Q407:38 (7:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 45 for 13 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 3574 (7:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 45 for 13 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q407:13 (7:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 49 for 4 yards (50-V.Vea). Play 3599 (7:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 49 for 4 yards (50-V.Vea).
Q406:50 (6:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 31 for 20 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 3621 (6:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 31 for 20 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q406:19 (6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Mingo. ** Injury Update: DAL-88-C.Lamb has returned to the game. Play 3646 (6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Mingo. ** Injury Update: DAL-88-C.Lamb has returned to the game.
Q406:14 (6:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 18-J.Mingo to TB 23 for 8 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 3669 (6:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 18-J.Mingo to TB 23 for 8 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q405:56 (5:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-H.Luepke up the middle to TB 18 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 3697 (5:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-H.Luepke up the middle to TB 18 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q405:35 (5:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Mingo (25-J.Parrish). Play 3719 (5:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Mingo (25-J.Parrish).
Q405:30 (5:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3742 (5:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q405:26 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 19-R.Flournoy is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 3768 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 19-R.Flournoy is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q405:26 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35. Play 3781 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35.
Q405:26 (5:26) ** Injury Update: TB-78-T.Wirfs has returned to the game. PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 35 - No Play. Play 3805 (5:26) ** Injury Update: TB-78-T.Wirfs has returned to the game. PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 35 - No Play.
Q405:26 (5:26) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 31 for 1 yard (92-Q.Williams; 23-A.Speed). DAL-55-J.Barham was injured during the play. Play 3829 (5:26) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 31 for 1 yard (92-Q.Williams; 23-A.Speed). DAL-55-J.Barham was injured during the play.
Q404:42 (4:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 37 for 6 yards (13-C.Downs; 6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 3857 (4:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end to TB 37 for 6 yards (13-C.Downs; 6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q403:58 (3:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka (26-D.Bland). Play 3879 (3:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka (26-D.Bland).
Q403:53 (3:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 10 yards (52-C.Rozeboom). Play 3902 (3:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 10 yards (52-C.Rozeboom).
Q403:42 (3:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 30 for 6 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 3928 (3:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 30 for 6 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q403:22 (3:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy to TB 44 for 26 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 3960 (3:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy to TB 44 for 26 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q402:50 (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish) [51-D.Walker]. PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 44 - No Play. Play 3985 (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish) [51-D.Walker]. PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 44 - No Play.
Q402:44 (2:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 47 for 7 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 4019 (2:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 47 for 7 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q402:17 (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-J.Mingo to TB 35 for 12 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 4044 (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-J.Mingo to TB 35 for 12 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 33 for 2 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 4069 (2:00) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 33 for 2 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q401:41 (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 24 for 9 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 4098 (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 24 for 9 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q401:22 (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 87-J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at TB 12. 34-A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain. Play 4123 (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 87-J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at TB 12. 34-A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.
Q401:16 (1:16) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 10 for -2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). ** Injury Update: DAL-55-J.Barham has returned to the game. Play 4150 (1:16) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 10 for -2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). ** Injury Update: DAL-55-J.Barham has returned to the game.
Q401:11 Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:11. Play 4184 Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:11.
Q401:11 (1:11) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 32 for 22 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 4172 (1:11) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 32 for 22 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q401:04 Timeout #2 by DAL at 01:04. Play 4216 Timeout #2 by DAL at 01:04.
Q401:04 (1:04) 10-J.Daniels kneels to TB 31 for -1 yards. Play 4204 (1:04) 10-J.Daniels kneels to TB 31 for -1 yards.
Q400:31 (:31) 10-J.Daniels kneels to TB 30 for -1 yards. Play 4233 (:31) 10-J.Daniels kneels to TB 30 for -1 yards.
Down
3
Game seconds remaining 3358
Half seconds remaining 1558
Quarter seconds remaining 658
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL 1.8 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 1
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3358
Half seconds remaining 1558
Quarter seconds remaining 658
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 4
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 4
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3358
Half seconds remaining 1558
Quarter seconds remaining 658
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:05 Penalty · TB (5:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-78-T.Wirfs, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL 4.22 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 6
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2105
Half seconds remaining 305
Quarter seconds remaining 305
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 1
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2105
Half seconds remaining 305
Quarter seconds remaining 305
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL 1.07 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 6
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2105
Half seconds remaining 305
Quarter seconds remaining 305
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 1
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2105
Half seconds remaining 305
Quarter seconds remaining 305
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q103:23 Penalty · TB (3:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 84-B.Sharp (50-S.James, 28-S.Revel) [13-C.Downs]. PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL -3.77 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2892
Half seconds remaining 1092
Quarter seconds remaining 192
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 20
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2892
Half seconds remaining 1092
Quarter seconds remaining 192
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL -1.41 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2892
Half seconds remaining 1092
Quarter seconds remaining 192
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 20
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2892
Half seconds remaining 1092
Quarter seconds remaining 192
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q415:00 Penalty · TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (28-S.Revel). ** Injury Update: DAL-28-S.Revel has returned to the game. PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL -2.4 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 38
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 896
Half seconds remaining 896
Quarter seconds remaining 896
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 13
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 896
Half seconds remaining 896
Quarter seconds remaining 896
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL -3.81 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 38
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 896
Half seconds remaining 896
Quarter seconds remaining 896
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 13
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 896
Half seconds remaining 896
Quarter seconds remaining 896
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q215:00 Penalty · TB (15:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-7-R.Gary, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL -1.4 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 5
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 10
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL -0.68 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 5
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 10
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q305:25 Penalty · TB (5:25) PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL 1.18 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 15
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 1225
Half seconds remaining 1225
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 1225
Half seconds remaining 1225
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL 0.74 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 15
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 1225
Half seconds remaining 1225
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 16
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 1225
Half seconds remaining 1225
Quarter seconds remaining 325
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q405:26 Penalty · TB (5:26) ** Injury Update: TB-78-T.Wirfs has returned to the game. PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL 0.8 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 15
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 70
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 8
Game seconds remaining 326
Half seconds remaining 326
Quarter seconds remaining 326
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 8
Game seconds remaining 326
Half seconds remaining 326
Quarter seconds remaining 326
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL 0.51 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 15
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 70
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 8
Game seconds remaining 326
Half seconds remaining 326
Quarter seconds remaining 326
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 8
Game seconds remaining 326
Half seconds remaining 326
Quarter seconds remaining 326
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q414:56 Penalty · TB (14:56) PENALTY on TB-88-C.Otton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 38 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL 0.31 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 15
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 896
Half seconds remaining 896
Quarter seconds remaining 896
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 38
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 896
Half seconds remaining 896
Quarter seconds remaining 896
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL 0.86 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 15
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 896
Half seconds remaining 896
Quarter seconds remaining 896
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 38
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14
Game seconds remaining 896
Half seconds remaining 896
Quarter seconds remaining 896
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q203:47 Penalty · TB (3:47) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL 0.01 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2027
Half seconds remaining 227
Quarter seconds remaining 227
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 5
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2027
Half seconds remaining 227
Quarter seconds remaining 227
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DAL 0.5 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2027
Half seconds remaining 227
Quarter seconds remaining 227
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof closed
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 5
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2027
Half seconds remaining 227
Quarter seconds remaining 227
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:36 Fourth down · DAL (12:36) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to TB 3, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 2.978118718384751
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.29
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 9.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2556
Half seconds remaining 756
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 756
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7062192610377245 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.69553/ NA/0.70622 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:20 Fourth down · DAL (9:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 2.39531326245353
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.3444444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 9.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2360
Half seconds remaining 560
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 560
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7079801040354561 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70141/0.68024/0.70798 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:47 Fourth down · TB (3:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 1.654525103007617
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.4369444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -9.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2027
Half seconds remaining 227
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 227
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2970611252000208 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28989/0.26910/0.29706 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 24 recorded events Q203:15 Fourth down · DAL (3:15) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TB 36, Center-44-T.Sieg. 15-T.Johnson to TB 48 for 12 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 1.596731081520441
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.4458333333333334
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 9.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1995
Half seconds remaining 195
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 195
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6670653506042604 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63683/ NA/0.66707 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Fourth down · TB (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 1.469063513217921
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.4666666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -9.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q200:26 Kick · DAL (:26) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 1.323368906949349
Yardline 100 23
Elapsed share 0.4927777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 9.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q303:02 Kick · TB (3:02) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 0.5789807903943882
Yardline 100 23
Elapsed share 0.6994444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -9.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q301:49 Fourth down · DAL (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Ferguson. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 0.5338731098392558
Yardline 100 57
Elapsed share 0.7197222222222223
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 9.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q408:36 Fourth down · TB (8:36) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to DAL 1 for no gain (55-J.Barham). + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 0.3087032350120065
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.8566666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -9.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 14 Q403:53 Fourth down · TB (3:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 10 yards (52-C.Rozeboom). + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof retractable
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team TB
Home team DAL
Away total 20
Home total 29.5
Total line 49.5
Retractable 1
Spread line 9.5
Spread time 0.2254133812392978
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.9352777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -9.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q111:56 Penalty · DAL (11:56) 33-J.Williams left tackle to TB 7 for 1 yard (0-Y.Diaby; 92-E.Simmons). PENALTY on TB-51-D.Walker, Defensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at TB 8 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q110:51 Kick · DAL 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Extra point points above expectation DAL 0.03 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:27 Penalty · TB (4:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at DAL 47 for -12 yards (50-S.James). PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:52 Penalty · TB (3:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end pushed ob at DAL 27 for 3 yards (28-S.Revel). PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:53 Kick · TB 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Extra point points above expectation TB 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q211:09 Penalty · TB (11:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 49, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson. PENALTY on DAL-50-S.James, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 49. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:13 Penalty · TB (9:13) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 12 for 2 yards (7-R.Gary). PENALTY on DAL-91-O.Ogbonnia, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 12. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:40 Penalty · DAL (3:40) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 11 for -2 yards (91-A.Robinson). PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:03 Penalty · TB (3:03) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Otton. PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:58 Penalty · DAL (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-3-R.Bain, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at TB 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q315:00 Penalty · TB 17-B.Aubrey kicks 56 yards from DAL 35 to TB 9. 19-K.Johnson to TB 26 for 17 yards (13-C.Downs). PENALTY on TB-84-B.Sharp, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 24. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:00 Kick · TB 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Extra point points above expectation TB 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q310:43 Penalty · TB (10:43) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 31 for 6 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:31 Kick · TB 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Extra point points above expectation TB 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q307:31 Fumble · DAL 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to DAL 4. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 28 for 24 yards (29-M.Killebrew). FUMBLES (29-M.Killebrew), RECOVERED by TB-38-K.Knowles at DAL 37. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q301:03 Penalty · TB (1:03) 44-S.Tucker right end to DAL 33 for 4 yards (24-M.Hooker; 13-C.Downs). PENALTY on TB-68-B.Bredeson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:50 Penalty · DAL (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 3-G.Pickens (25-J.Parrish) [51-D.Walker]. PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-team-stats Retrieved Oct 9, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 406dc1771fd37094ed8f0e597de5cdb965db2d12e09d354f1db1d7b55b832864
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 9, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5919a66b3c10f355d31f547b44c9087b5730cf92491740939cbed33e939fddfdModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 1328d2d866a830428e615868bba577a5adb77fb26e8ea16c207ed08c46e5dcee
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 3 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 4:52 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Updated after a correction
34 metric records changed; 23 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 9, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 9, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1920
Half seconds remaining 120
Quarter seconds remaining 120
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2877640106072512 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28502/0.23774/0.28776 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 1826
Quarter seconds remaining 26
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7626033314527069 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73624/0.76260/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DAL 0.31 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
11
Game seconds remaining 1082
Half seconds remaining 1082
Quarter seconds remaining 182
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7877058971136293 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74184/0.78771/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 0.31 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-14
Game seconds remaining 1009
Half seconds remaining 1009
Quarter seconds remaining 109
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1730308473732331 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17303/ NA/0.11955 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 516
Half seconds remaining 516
Quarter seconds remaining 516
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9796948839130647 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97969/0.95814/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
8
Game seconds remaining 233
Half seconds remaining 233
Quarter seconds remaining 233
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8612318337995816 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82525/ NA/0.86123 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled