Skip to content
Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: ARI by 2.6; actual result: ARI by 2.
The 0.6-point difference was matched or exceeded in 763 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty count: 9 versus 11.4 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 698 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: LA by 12.5; actual result: ARI by 2. The difference was 14.5 points.
1,948 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 80.35%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Los Angeles Rams by 12.5
Final margin Arizona Cardinals by 2
Difference 14.5 points
Arizona Cardinals covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
1,948 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (26.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score ARI by 2.6
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Los Angeles Rams chance to win during the game 145 preplay estimates across 173 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 28 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 6 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 00:52 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 3876 (:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 1 for 5 yards (29-D.Burke). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ARI-55-D.Stills has returned to the game.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 15.5 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:47 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 3996 (:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44. Penalty on LA-10-J.Stewart, Defensive Offside, declined.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 24.1 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 13:03 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 2872 (13:03) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to LA 26 for 1 yard (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-0-B.Young, Defensive Offside, 6 yards, enforced at LA 27 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 173 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 173 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LA 35. Play 39 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LA 35.
Q115:00 (15:00) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 38 for 3 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). Play 56 (15:00) 23-K.Williams left tackle to LA 38 for 3 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
Q114:25 (14:25) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to LA 44 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 50-J.Gibbens). Play 78 (14:25) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to LA 44 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 50-J.Gibbens).
Q113:49 (13:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 29 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q408:55 Penalty · LA (8:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (13-K.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at ARI 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA 12.9 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 529
Half seconds remaining 529
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 12:10 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 2cb0947e136e7299034027ba9e85666e342f38d69709f605f7b02e8e2498de42ARI by 2
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
763 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 698 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Clay Martin Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.8 accepted penalties for 99.4 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.7 / 48.1 yd per game. Away teams: 6.1 / 51.3 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Clay Martin; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Los Angeles Rams · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Los Angeles Rams · Opponent penalties Opponent ARI was charged 5 penalties for 51 yards.
Arizona Cardinals · Opponent penalties Opponent LA was charged 4 penalties for 31 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 145 model estimates across 173 recorded game entries.
28 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (173 entries) 0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence 2.78 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence 0.63 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence 12.9 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence 1.99 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence -3 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence -0.65 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence -2.54 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Ruling expected points consequence -0.33 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
ARI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
LA Fourth down decision cost 1.72 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83978/ NA/0.82262 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83216/0.84182/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16763/0.16773/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82017/ NA/0.82577 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24414/0.28319/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 1.14 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15906/ NA/0.14761 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81428/ NA/0.82094 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0.82 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27360/0.26537/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32722/0.34195/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68399/0.63892/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54377/0.60820/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63272/ NA/0.63561 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26655/0.20800/0.18430 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71960/ NA/0.76294 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
ARI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
LA Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.2 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
ARI Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.2 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
LA Field goal points above expectation 0.39 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
ARI Field goal points above expectation 0.82 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
6 of 6 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LA Extra point points above expectation 0.03 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 30 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
ARI Extra point points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 30 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
LA Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 173 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
ARI Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 173 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
LA Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.86 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.03 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.43 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 36 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
73 of 73 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 73 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.29 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
73 of 73 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 73 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
ARI Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Defensive penalty on LA awarded ARI a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:23 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 3495 (3:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 39 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.0 percentage points across this play.
Show 2 more plays Q4 · 02:01 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 3735 (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-65-C.Shelton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 28 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.5 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:09 Recorded game event
Arizona Cardinals · Play 3571 (3:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 45 for 1 yard (30-J.Wallace). Penalty on ARI, Illegal Formation, declined.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.0 percentage points across this play.
Play 103
(13:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right.
Q113:44 (13:44) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. Play 126 (13:44) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
Q113:35 (13:35) 22-T.Allgeier left guard to ARI 21 for 1 yard (48-O.Speights; 91-K.Turner). Play 144 (13:35) 22-T.Allgeier left guard to ARI 21 for 1 yard (48-O.Speights; 91-K.Turner).
Q112:58 (12:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 25 for 4 yards (35-J.Watson). Play 166 (12:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 25 for 4 yards (35-J.Watson).
Q112:23 (12:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Lake [55-B.Fiske] at ARI 32. 37-Q.Lake pushed ob at ARI 32 for no gain (85-T.McBride). Play 191 (12:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Lake [55-B.Fiske] at ARI 32. 37-Q.Lake pushed ob at ARI 32 for no gain (85-T.McBride).
Q112:18 (12:18) 24-B.Corum right guard to ARI 23 for 9 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 218 (12:18) 24-B.Corum right guard to ARI 23 for 9 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q111:45 (11:45) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to ARI 15 for 8 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). Play 240 (11:45) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to ARI 15 for 8 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
Q111:07 (11:07) 24-B.Corum left guard to ARI 17 for -2 yards (55-D.Stills). Play 264 (11:07) 24-B.Corum left guard to ARI 17 for -2 yards (55-D.Stills).
Q110:30 (10:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Parkinson (3-B.Baker). Play 286 (10:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Parkinson (3-B.Baker).
Q110:25 (10:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at ARI 26 for -9 yards (10-J.Sweat). Play 309 (10:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at ARI 26 for -9 yards (10-J.Sweat).
Q109:47 (9:47) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 334 (9:47) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q109:41 19-B.Grupe kicks 58 yards from LA 35 to ARI 7. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 47 for 40 yards (19-B.Grupe). LA-19-B.Grupe was injured during the play. ARI-0-C.Simon was injured during the play. Play 354 19-B.Grupe kicks 58 yards from LA 35 to ARI 7. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 47 for 40 yards (19-B.Grupe). LA-19-B.Grupe was injured during the play. ARI-0-C.Simon was injured during the play.
Q109:35 (9:35) 22-T.Allgeier right end to ARI 47 for no gain (48-O.Speights). Play 387 (9:35) 22-T.Allgeier right end to ARI 47 for no gain (48-O.Speights).
Q108:57 (8:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to LA 27 for 26 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 412 (8:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to LA 27 for 26 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q108:20 (8:20) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 24 for 3 yards (90-T.Davis; 0-B.Young). Play 437 (8:20) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 24 for 3 yards (90-T.Davis; 0-B.Young).
Q107:43 (7:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 20-Z.Knight to LA 16 for 8 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 459 (7:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 20-Z.Knight to LA 16 for 8 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q107:03 Timeout #1 by ARI at 07:03. Play 496 Timeout #1 by ARI at 07:03.
Q107:03 (7:03) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier right guard to LA 11 for 5 yards (99-A.Donald; 2-J.McCollough). Play 484 (7:03) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier right guard to LA 11 for 5 yards (99-A.Donald; 2-J.McCollough).
Q106:27 (6:27) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier left end to LA 16 for -5 yards (99-A.Donald). Play 513 (6:27) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier left end to LA 16 for -5 yards (99-A.Donald).
Q105:46 (5:46) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 22-T.Allgeier [0-B.Young]. Play 535 (5:46) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 22-T.Allgeier [0-B.Young].
Q105:41 (5:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 558 (5:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q105:37 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LA 35. ** Injury Update: ARI-0-C.Simon has returned to the game. Play 578 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LA 35. ** Injury Update: ARI-0-C.Simon has returned to the game.
Q105:37 (5:37) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to LA 38 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens) [56-D.Robinson]. Play 602 (5:37) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to LA 38 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens) [56-D.Robinson].
Q105:03 (5:03) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 23-K.Williams (51-R.Lopez). Play 630 (5:03) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 23-K.Williams (51-R.Lopez).
Q104:58 (4:58) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right end to LA 43 for 5 yards (97-W.Nolen). Play 653 (4:58) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right end to LA 43 for 5 yards (97-W.Nolen).
Q104:17 (4:17) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. Play 675 (4:17) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
Q104:09 (4:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 34 for 14 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 698 (4:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 34 for 14 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q103:35 (3:35) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to ARI 38 for 4 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 730 (3:35) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to ARI 38 for 4 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q103:03 (3:03) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 40 for 2 yards (30-J.Wallace; 0-B.Young). Play 752 (3:03) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 40 for 2 yards (30-J.Wallace; 0-B.Young).
Q102:25 (2:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to LA 45 for 15 yards (10-J.Stewart; 1-E.Forbes). Play 774 (2:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to LA 45 for 15 yards (10-J.Stewart; 1-E.Forbes).
Q101:48 (1:48) 20-Z.Knight right end to LA 41 for 4 yards (57-T.Hamilton; 90-T.Davis). Play 799 (1:48) 20-Z.Knight right end to LA 41 for 4 yards (57-T.Hamilton; 90-T.Davis).
Q101:04 (1:04) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight left end to LA 10 for 31 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 821 (1:04) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight left end to LA 10 for 31 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q100:20 (:20) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson. Play 843 (:20) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson.
Q100:17 (:17) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 12 for -2 yards (0-B.Young). Play 866 (:17) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 12 for -2 yards (0-B.Young).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 900 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne [0-B.Young]. Play 922 (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne [0-B.Young].
Q214:55 (14:55) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 953 (14:55) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q214:51 38-C.Ryland kicks 61 yards from ARI 35 to LA 4. 11-A.Bachman to LA 27 for 23 yards (52-J.Burch; 0-C.Simon). Play 973 38-C.Ryland kicks 61 yards from ARI 35 to LA 4. 11-A.Bachman to LA 27 for 23 yards (52-J.Burch; 0-C.Simon).
Q214:47 (14:47) 24-B.Corum left end to LA 30 for 3 yards (13-K.Clark). Play 1003 (14:47) 24-B.Corum left end to LA 30 for 3 yards (13-K.Clark).
Q214:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 24-B.Corum to LA 33 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens). Play 1025 (14:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 24-B.Corum to LA 33 for 3 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
Q213:37 (13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams to LA 40 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton; 25-Z.Collins). Play 1050 (13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams to LA 40 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton; 25-Z.Collins).
Q212:55 (12:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams. Play 1075 (12:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
Q212:50 (12:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 4-K.Mumpfield to LA 47 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton; 3-B.Baker). Play 1098 (12:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 4-K.Mumpfield to LA 47 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton; 3-B.Baker).
Q212:13 (12:13) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 46 for 7 yards (21-G.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 46. Play 1123 (12:13) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 46 for 7 yards (21-G.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 46.
Q211:50 (11:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 27 for 14 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 1156 (11:50) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 27 for 14 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q211:08 (11:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 23 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 1181 (11:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 23 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q210:25 (10:25) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to ARI 18 for 5 yards (25-Z.Collins; 1-Ma.Wilson). Play 1206 (10:25) (Shotgun) 24-B.Corum up the middle to ARI 18 for 5 yards (25-Z.Collins; 1-Ma.Wilson).
Q209:44 (9:44) 24-B.Corum up the middle to ARI 16 for 2 yards (91-L.Collier). Play 1228 (9:44) 24-B.Corum up the middle to ARI 16 for 2 yards (91-L.Collier).
Q209:08 (9:08) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 15 for 1 yard (21-G.Williams). Play 1250 (9:08) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 15 for 1 yard (21-G.Williams).
Q208:29 (8:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 24-B.Corum for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1275 (8:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 24-B.Corum for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q208:23 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-M.Stafford is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 91-L.Collier recovered a fumble. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 1296 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-M.Stafford is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 91-L.Collier recovered a fumble. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q208:23 42-E.Evans kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ARI 35. Play 1314 42-E.Evans kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ARI 35.
Q208:23 (8:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 17-K.Bourne to ARI 40 for 5 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 1338 (8:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 17-K.Bourne to ARI 40 for 5 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q207:43 (7:43) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 41 for 1 yard (97-P.Ford; 91-K.Turner). Play 1363 (7:43) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 41 for 1 yard (97-P.Ford; 91-K.Turner).
Q207:00 (7:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride. Play 1385 (7:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride.
Q206:57 (6:57) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to LA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds. Play 1408 (6:57) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to LA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
Q206:48 (6:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 15 for -8 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 1427 (6:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 15 for -8 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q206:05 (6:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 4-K.Mumpfield (35-K.King) [35-K.King]. Play 1454 (6:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 4-K.Mumpfield (35-K.King) [35-K.King].
Q206:00 (6:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to LA 27 for 12 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 1477 (6:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to LA 27 for 12 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q205:28 (5:28) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 33 for 6 yards (49-J.Cardona). Play 1502 (5:28) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 33 for 6 yards (49-J.Cardona).
Q205:20 (5:20) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 20-Z.Knight to ARI 43 for 10 yards (47-W.Bailey). FUMBLES (47-W.Bailey), ball out of bounds at ARI 43. Play 1528 (5:20) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 20-Z.Knight to ARI 43 for 10 yards (47-W.Bailey). FUMBLES (47-W.Bailey), ball out of bounds at ARI 43.
Q204:51 (4:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to LA 40 for 17 yards (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake). Play 1565 (4:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to LA 40 for 17 yards (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake).
Q204:11 (4:11) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to LA 30 for 10 yards (0-B.Young; 3-K.Curl). Play 1590 (4:11) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to LA 30 for 10 yards (0-B.Young; 3-K.Curl).
Q203:31 (3:31) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to LA 27 for 3 yards (0-B.Young; 53-N.Landman). Play 1615 (3:31) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to LA 27 for 3 yards (0-B.Young; 53-N.Landman).
Q202:58 (2:58) 20-Z.Knight right tackle to LA 20 for 7 yards (5-K.Kinchens; 10-J.Stewart). Play 1637 (2:58) 20-Z.Knight right tackle to LA 20 for 7 yards (5-K.Kinchens; 10-J.Stewart).
Q202:17 (2:17) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to LA 21 for -1 yards (3-K.Curl, 55-B.Fiske). ARI-73-I.Seumalo was injured during the play. Play 1659 (2:17) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to LA 21 for -1 yards (3-K.Curl, 55-B.Fiske). ARI-73-I.Seumalo was injured during the play.
Q202:00 (2:00) 20-Z.Knight left tackle to LA 16 for 5 yards (2-J.McCollough). ** Injury Update: ARI-73-I.Seumalo has returned to the game. Play 1684 (2:00) 20-Z.Knight left tackle to LA 16 for 5 yards (2-J.McCollough). ** Injury Update: ARI-73-I.Seumalo has returned to the game.
Q201:53 Timeout #1 by LA at 01:53. Play 1725 Timeout #1 by LA at 01:53.
Q201:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to LA 8 for 8 yards (1-E.Forbes). Play 1713 (1:53) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to LA 8 for 8 yards (1-E.Forbes).
Q201:42 Timeout #2 by LA at 01:42. Play 1760 Timeout #2 by LA at 01:42.
Q201:42 (1:42) 20-Z.Knight left tackle to LA 8 for no gain (53-N.Landman; 10-J.Stewart). Play 1748 (1:42) 20-Z.Knight left tackle to LA 8 for no gain (53-N.Landman; 10-J.Stewart).
Q201:37 Timeout #3 by LA at 01:37. Play 1789 Timeout #3 by LA at 01:37.
Q201:37 (1:37) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 3 for 5 yards (3-K.Curl; 35-J.Watson). Play 1777 (1:37) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 3 for 5 yards (3-K.Curl; 35-J.Watson).
Q200:52 Timeout #2 by ARI at 00:52. Play 1818 Timeout #2 by ARI at 00:52.
Q200:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Bourne. Play 1806 (:52) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Bourne.
Q200:49 (:49) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 1846 (:49) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q200:46 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LA 35. Play 1866 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LA 35.
Q200:46 (:46) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 38 for 3 yards (97-W.Nolen). Play 1890 (:46) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 38 for 3 yards (97-W.Nolen).
Q200:05 (:05) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 47 for 9 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 10-J.Sweat). Play 1912 (:05) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 47 for 9 yards (50-J.Gibbens; 10-J.Sweat).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 1934 Q315:00 42-E.Evans kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to ARI 0. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 25 for 25 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 1954 42-E.Evans kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to ARI 0. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 25 for 25 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q314:51 (14:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right. Play 1977 (14:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right.
Q314:46 (14:46) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to ARI 36 for 11 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 2000 (14:46) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 17-K.Bourne to ARI 36 for 11 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q314:10 (14:10) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 42 for 6 yards (2-J.McCollough; 5-K.Kinchens). Play 2025 (14:10) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 42 for 6 yards (2-J.McCollough; 5-K.Kinchens).
Q313:35 (13:35) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to ARI 46 for 4 yards (2-J.McCollough). Play 2047 (13:35) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to ARI 46 for 4 yards (2-J.McCollough).
Q312:55 (12:55) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 49 for 3 yards (47-W.Bailey; 97-P.Ford). Play 2072 (12:55) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 49 for 3 yards (47-W.Bailey; 97-P.Ford).
Q312:17 (12:17) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 45 for 6 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 2094 (12:17) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 45 for 6 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q311:54 (11:54) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to LA 44 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman). Play 2116 (11:54) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to LA 44 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman).
Q311:17 (11:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier pushed ob at LA 34 for 10 yards (35-J.Watson). Play 2138 (11:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-T.Allgeier pushed ob at LA 34 for 10 yards (35-J.Watson).
Q310:42 (10:42) 20-Z.Knight left end ran ob at LA 26 for 8 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 2168 (10:42) 20-Z.Knight left end ran ob at LA 26 for 8 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q310:10 (10:10) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to LA 26 for no gain (48-O.Speights; 3-K.Curl). Play 2195 (10:10) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to LA 26 for no gain (48-O.Speights; 3-K.Curl).
Q309:33 (9:33) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 23 for 3 yards (10-J.Stewart). Play 2217 (9:33) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 23 for 3 yards (10-J.Stewart).
Q308:51 (8:51) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 22 for 1 yard (47-W.Bailey; 94-D.Johnson). Play 2239 (8:51) (Shotgun) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 22 for 1 yard (47-W.Bailey; 94-D.Johnson).
Q308:11 (8:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to LA 17 for 5 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 2261 (8:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to LA 17 for 5 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q307:33 (7:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne pushed ob at LA 14 for 3 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on ARI-72-H.Froholdt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 17 - No Play. Play 2291 (7:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne pushed ob at LA 14 for 3 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on ARI-72-H.Froholdt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 17 - No Play.
Q307:07 (7:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to LA 19 for 8 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 2332 (7:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne to LA 19 for 8 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q306:29 (6:29) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 2357 (6:29) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q306:25 38-C.Ryland kicks 63 yards from ARI 35 to LA 2. 11-A.Bachman to LA 27 for 25 yards (0-C.Simon; 80-S.Fehoko). Play 2377 38-C.Ryland kicks 63 yards from ARI 35 to LA 2. 11-A.Bachman to LA 27 for 25 yards (0-C.Simon; 80-S.Fehoko).
Q306:20 (6:20) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 30 for 3 yards (55-D.Stills). PENALTY on ARI-97-W.Nolen, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LA 30. Play 2407 (6:20) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 30 for 3 yards (55-D.Stills). PENALTY on ARI-97-W.Nolen, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LA 30.
Q306:02 (6:02) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua [10-J.Sweat]. Play 2440 (6:02) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua [10-J.Sweat].
Q305:56 (5:56) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 48 for 13 yards (21-G.Williams). Play 2463 (5:56) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 48 for 13 yards (21-G.Williams).
Q305:13 (5:13) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 48 for no gain (10-J.Sweat). Play 2485 (5:13) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 48 for no gain (10-J.Sweat).
Q304:50 (4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams to ARI 36 for 16 yards (21-G.Williams) [3-B.Baker]. Play 2507 (4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams to ARI 36 for 16 yards (21-G.Williams) [3-B.Baker].
Q304:09 (4:09) 24-B.Corum left tackle to ARI 35 for 1 yard (52-J.Burch). Play 2532 (4:09) 24-B.Corum left tackle to ARI 35 for 1 yard (52-J.Burch).
Q303:30 (3:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams. Play 2554 (3:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams.
Q303:26 (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 4-K.Mumpfield to ARI 27 for 8 yards (52-J.Burch). Play 2577 (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 4-K.Mumpfield to ARI 27 for 8 yards (52-J.Burch).
Q302:44 (2:44) 87-D.Allen up the middle to ARI 27 for no gain (50-J.Gibbens; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play. ARI-10-J.Sweat was injured during the play. Play 2602 (2:44) 87-D.Allen up the middle to ARI 27 for no gain (50-J.Gibbens; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play. ARI-10-J.Sweat was injured during the play.
Q302:39 (2:39) 20-Z.Knight left end pushed ob at ARI 40 for 13 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 2630 (2:39) 20-Z.Knight left end pushed ob at ARI 40 for 13 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q302:07 (2:07) PENALTY on ARI-66-J.Williams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 40 - No Play. Play 2664 (2:07) PENALTY on ARI-66-J.Williams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 40 - No Play.
Q301:44 (1:44) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 42 for 7 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 2688 (1:44) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-E.Higgins to ARI 42 for 7 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q301:01 (1:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to LA 46 for 12 yards (37-Q.Lake) [55-B.Fiske]. Play 2713 (1:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to LA 46 for 12 yards (37-Q.Lake) [55-B.Fiske].
Q300:23 (:23) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight right guard to LA 45 for 1 yard (3-K.Curl; 53-N.Landman). Play 2738 (:23) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight right guard to LA 45 for 1 yard (3-K.Curl; 53-N.Landman).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 2760 Q415:00 (15:00) 22-T.Allgeier right tackle to LA 38 for 7 yards (5-K.Kinchens). Play 2780 (15:00) 22-T.Allgeier right tackle to LA 38 for 7 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
Q414:21 (14:21) 22-T.Allgeier right tackle to LA 36 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 2802 (14:21) 22-T.Allgeier right tackle to LA 36 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q413:39 (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 14-Mi.Wilson (30-J.Wallace). Play 2824 (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 14-Mi.Wilson (30-J.Wallace).
Q413:33 (13:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 27 for 9 yards (35-J.Watson). Play 2847 (13:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 27 for 9 yards (35-J.Watson).
Q413:03 (13:03) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to LA 26 for 1 yard (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-0-B.Young, Defensive Offside, 6 yards, enforced at LA 27 - No Play. Play 2872 (13:03) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to LA 26 for 1 yard (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-0-B.Young, Defensive Offside, 6 yards, enforced at LA 27 - No Play.
Q412:50 (12:50) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to LA 12 for 9 yards (30-J.Wallace; 5-K.Kinchens). Play 2905 (12:50) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to LA 12 for 9 yards (30-J.Wallace; 5-K.Kinchens).
Q412:14 (12:14) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to LA 8 for 4 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 2930 (12:14) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to LA 8 for 4 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q411:35 (11:35) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight up the middle to LA 4 for 4 yards (3-K.Curl; 35-J.Watson). Play 2955 (11:35) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight up the middle to LA 4 for 4 yards (3-K.Curl; 35-J.Watson).
Q410:55 (10:55) 20-Z.Knight right end to LA 7 for -3 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 2979 (10:55) 20-Z.Knight right end to LA 7 for -3 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q410:09 Timeout #1 by ARI at 10:09. Play 3013 Timeout #1 by ARI at 10:09.
Q410:09 (10:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to LA 9 for -2 yards (35-J.Watson). Play 3001 (10:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to LA 9 for -2 yards (35-J.Watson).
Q409:31 (9:31) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 3038 (9:31) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q409:28 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LA 35. Play 3058 38-C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LA 35.
Q409:28 (9:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to LA 39 for 4 yards (29-D.Burke). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game. Play 3082 (9:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to LA 39 for 4 yards (29-D.Burke). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
Q409:12 (9:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at ARI 45 for 16 yards. Play 3107 (9:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at ARI 45 for 16 yards.
Q408:55 (8:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (13-K.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at ARI 45 - No Play. Play 3135 (8:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (13-K.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at ARI 45 - No Play.
Q408:49 (8:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at ARI 30 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI 30. Play 3169 (8:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at ARI 30 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI 30.
Q408:05 (8:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 22 for 8 yards (0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (0-C.Simon), RECOVERED by ARI-29-D.Burke at ARI 25. ** Injury Update: ARI-97-W.Nolen has returned to the game. Play 3198 (8:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 22 for 8 yards (0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (0-C.Simon), RECOVERED by ARI-29-D.Burke at ARI 25. ** Injury Update: ARI-97-W.Nolen has returned to the game.
Q407:57 (7:57) 20-Z.Knight right end to ARI 29 for 4 yards (0-B.Young; 30-J.Wallace). Play 3243 (7:57) 20-Z.Knight right end to ARI 29 for 4 yards (0-B.Young; 30-J.Wallace).
Q407:15 (7:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson. Play 3275 (7:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson.
Q407:10 (7:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 86-J.Brooks. Play 3298 (7:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 86-J.Brooks.
Q407:06 (7:06) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to LA 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 28 for 4 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). Play 3321 (7:06) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to LA 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 28 for 4 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
Q406:55 (6:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 35 for 7 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 3347 (6:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 35 for 7 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q406:16 (6:16) 23-K.Williams right tackle to LA 40 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton; 3-B.Baker). Play 3379 (6:16) 23-K.Williams right tackle to LA 40 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton; 3-B.Baker).
Q405:37 (5:37) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 46 for 14 yards (50-J.Gibbens). Play 3401 (5:37) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 46 for 14 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
Q405:12 (5:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 39 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 3423 (5:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 39 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q404:37 (4:37) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 41 for -2 yards (3-B.Baker). Play 3448 (4:37) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 41 for -2 yards (3-B.Baker).
Q404:00 (4:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 39 for 2 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 10-J.Sweat). Play 3470 (4:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 39 for 2 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 10-J.Sweat).
Q403:23 (3:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 39 - No Play. Play 3495 (3:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 39 - No Play.
Q403:23 (3:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams. Play 3519 (3:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams.
Q403:17 (3:17) 22-T.Allgeier left end to ARI 44 for -1 yards (10-J.Stewart, 97-P.Ford). Play 3542 (3:17) 22-T.Allgeier left end to ARI 44 for -1 yards (10-J.Stewart, 97-P.Ford).
Q403:09 Timeout #1 by LA at 03:09. Play 3583 Timeout #1 by LA at 03:09.
Q403:09 (3:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 45 for 1 yard (30-J.Wallace). Penalty on ARI, Illegal Formation, declined. Play 3571 (3:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 45 for 1 yard (30-J.Wallace). Penalty on ARI, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q403:03 (3:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne (30-J.Wallace) [99-A.Donald]. Play 3614 (3:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne (30-J.Wallace) [99-A.Donald].
Q402:58 (2:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 14 for no gain (36-K.Crawford; 59-C.Kreiter). Play 3637 (2:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 14 for no gain (36-K.Crawford; 59-C.Kreiter).
Q402:48 (2:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 17 for 3 yards (21-G.Williams; 35-K.King). Play 3663 (2:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 17 for 3 yards (21-G.Williams; 35-K.King).
Q402:26 (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 22 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 3688 (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 22 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q402:23 (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 28 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). Play 3713 (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 28 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
Q402:01 (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-65-C.Shelton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 28 - No Play. Play 3735 (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-65-C.Shelton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 28 - No Play.
Q402:01 (2:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 34 for 43 yards (21-G.Williams) [56-D.Robinson]. Play 3759 (2:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 34 for 43 yards (21-G.Williams) [56-D.Robinson].
Q401:50 (1:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at ARI 29 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton). Play 3784 (1:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at ARI 29 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q401:46 (1:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 13 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker). ARI-55-D.Stills was injured during the play. Play 3816 (1:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 13 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker). ARI-55-D.Stills was injured during the play.
Q401:30 Timeout #2 by ARI at 01:30. Play 3856 Timeout #2 by ARI at 01:30.
Q401:30 (1:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to ARI 6 for 7 yards (50-J.Gibbens). LA-17-D.Adams was injured during the play. Play 3844 (1:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to ARI 6 for 7 yards (50-J.Gibbens). LA-17-D.Adams was injured during the play.
Q400:52 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:52. Play 3888 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:52.
Q400:52 (:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 1 for 5 yards (29-D.Burke). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ARI-55-D.Stills has returned to the game. Play 3876 (:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 1 for 5 yards (29-D.Burke). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ARI-55-D.Stills has returned to the game.
Q400:47 42-E.Evans extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-13-S.Bennett. Play 3911 42-E.Evans extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-13-S.Bennett.
Q400:47 42-E.Evans kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ARI 35. Play 3979 42-E.Evans kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ARI 35.
Q400:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44. Penalty on LA-10-J.Stewart, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 3996 (:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44. Penalty on LA-10-J.Stewart, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q400:41 (:41) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 24 for 5 yards (99-A.Donald). LA-97-P.Ford was injured during the play. Play 4032 (:41) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 24 for 5 yards (99-A.Donald). LA-97-P.Ford was injured during the play.
Q400:35 Timeout #2 by LA at 00:35. Play 4069 Timeout #2 by LA at 00:35.
Q400:35 (:35) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 26 for -2 yards (55-B.Fiske). Play 4057 (:35) 22-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 26 for -2 yards (55-B.Fiske).
Q400:31 Timeout #3 by LA at 00:31. Play 4098 Timeout #3 by LA at 00:31.
Q400:31 (:31) 7-J.Brissett left guard to LA 25 for 1 yard (90-T.Davis). Play 4086 (:31) 7-J.Brissett left guard to LA 25 for 1 yard (90-T.Davis).
Q400:03 (:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. Play 4115 (:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Game seconds remaining 529
Half seconds remaining 529
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA 1.99 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 529
Half seconds remaining 529
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 529
Half seconds remaining 529
Quarter seconds remaining 529
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:23 Penalty · LA (3:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA -3 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 8
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 203
Half seconds remaining 203
Quarter seconds remaining 203
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 3
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 203
Half seconds remaining 203
Quarter seconds remaining 203
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA -0.65 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 8
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 203
Half seconds remaining 203
Quarter seconds remaining 203
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 3
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 203
Half seconds remaining 203
Quarter seconds remaining 203
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q302:07 Penalty · ARI (2:07) PENALTY on ARI-66-J.Williams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA 2.78 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA 0.63 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 65
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 60
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q402:01 Penalty · LA (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-65-C.Shelton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 28 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA -2.54 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 121
Half seconds remaining 121
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 72
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 121
Half seconds remaining 121
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LA -0.33 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 121
Half seconds remaining 121
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 72
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 121
Half seconds remaining 121
Quarter seconds remaining 121
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q113:44 Fourth down · LA (13:44) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost LA 1.72 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 11.48778388469848
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.02111111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 12.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3524
Half seconds remaining 1724
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 824
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8397814792009206 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83978/ NA/0.82262 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:57 Fourth down · ARI (6:57) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to LA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 1.14 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 2.688711217862049
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.3841666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -12.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2217
Half seconds remaining 417
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 417
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.159057288253706 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15906/ NA/0.14761 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:47 Kick · LA (9:47) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 21
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 8.828197556394963
Yardline 100 26
Elapsed share 0.08694444444444445
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 12.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3287
Half seconds remaining 1487
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 587
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8418214919864699 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83216/0.84182/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LA 0.39 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:41 Kick · ARI (5:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 6.71683816868022
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.1552777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -12.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3041
Half seconds remaining 1241
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 341
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.1677287477004678 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16763/0.16773/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI 0.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q104:17 Fourth down · LA (4:17) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 6.118299508729573
Yardline 100 57
Elapsed share 0.1786111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 12.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2957
Half seconds remaining 1157
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 257
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.82577115845423 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82017/ NA/0.82577 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:55 Kick · ARI (14:55) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 4.573016664393486
Yardline 100 12
Elapsed share 0.2513888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -12.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2695
Half seconds remaining 895
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 895
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2831904018851066 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24414/0.28319/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI 0.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Q205:28 Fourth down · LA (5:28) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 33 for 6 yards (49-J.Cardona). + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 2.43555118132388
Yardline 100 73
Elapsed share 0.4088888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 12.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2128
Half seconds remaining 328
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 328
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8209423614035792 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81428/ NA/0.82094 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:29 Kick · ARI (6:29) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 0.9588226691307288
Yardline 100 19
Elapsed share 0.6419444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -12.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1289
Half seconds remaining 1289
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 389
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.3419459775692605 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.32722/0.34195/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI 0.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 17 recorded events Q302:44 Fourth down · LA (2:44) 87-D.Allen up the middle to ARI 27 for no gain (50-J.Gibbens; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play. ARI-10-J.Sweat was injured during the play. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 0.7467318455456261
Yardline 100 27
Elapsed share 0.7044444444444444
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 12.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1064
Half seconds remaining 1064
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 164
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6839852659557856 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68399/0.63892/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:31 Kick · ARI (9:31) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 0.431785254132443
Yardline 100 9
Elapsed share 0.8413888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -12.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q407:06 Fourth down · ARI (7:06) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to LA 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 28 for 4 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 0.3675345238258053
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.8816666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -12.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q403:23 Fourth down · LA (3:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 0.2868729626299176
Yardline 100 44
Elapsed share 0.9436111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 12.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -6 Q402:58 Fourth down · ARI (2:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 14 for no gain (36-K.Crawford; 59-C.Kreiter). + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 0.2790139278174886
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.9505555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -12.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q212:13 Penalty · LA (12:13) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 46 for 7 yards (21-G.Williams). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 46. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:20 Fumble · ARI (5:20) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 20-Z.Knight to ARI 43 for 10 yards (47-W.Bailey). FUMBLES (47-W.Bailey), ball out of bounds at ARI 43. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q200:49 Kick · ARI (:49) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI 0.82 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam ARI
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 0
Away team ARI
Home team LA
Away total 19.5
Home total 32
Total line 51.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 12.5
Spread time 1.786347600670472
Yardline 100 3
Elapsed share 0.4863888888888889
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 19.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -12.5
Original posteam ARI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q307:33 Penalty · ARI (7:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-K.Bourne pushed ob at LA 14 for 3 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on ARI-72-H.Froholdt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 17 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:20 Penalty · LA (6:20) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 30 for 3 yards (55-D.Stills). PENALTY on ARI-97-W.Nolen, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at LA 30. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:03 Penalty · ARI (13:03) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett left guard to LA 26 for 1 yard (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-0-B.Young, Defensive Offside, 6 yards, enforced at LA 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:49 Fumble · LA (8:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at ARI 30 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI 30. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LA -0.2 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation ARI 0.2 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q408:05 Fumble · LA (8:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 22 for 8 yards (0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (0-C.Simon), RECOVERED by ARI-29-D.Burke at ARI 25. ** Injury Update: ARI-97-W.Nolen has returned to the game. + Fumble recoveries above expectation LA -0.2 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation ARI 0.2 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q403:09 Fourth down · ARI (3:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 45 for 1 yard (30-J.Wallace). Penalty on ARI, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:47 Kick · LA 42-E.Evans extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-13-S.Bennett. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.03 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:47 Penalty · ARI (:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44. Penalty on LA-10-J.Stewart, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:03 Kick · ARI (:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. + Fourth down decision cost ARI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI 0.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
nflverse-pbp Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 12:10 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 8bff93062be296d9688fd75c0f5e991d6de0e8ea1d8bcff085f1d5cb6d060a59
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 1:50 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 3a3e305735ad45fded477b515ecdd37e9b9cb9a1d7126cc7cb8ccd26b58907f7Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: d2eb55535c11295b1a0ce3734e4f646657f3de19d467c758c289ee559be05bbe
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 3 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 2:03 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 12:15 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 18, 2026, 11:36 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 571
Half seconds remaining 571
Quarter seconds remaining 571
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.6081976536356957 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.54377/0.60820/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI 0.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 6/6 eligible events modeled
Score differential
6
Game seconds remaining 426
Half seconds remaining 426
Quarter seconds remaining 426
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6356096513349696 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.63272/ NA/0.63561 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 203
Half seconds remaining 203
Quarter seconds remaining 203
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2665479113742328 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.26655/0.20800/0.18430 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
6
Game seconds remaining 178
Half seconds remaining 178
Quarter seconds remaining 178
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7629444359876296 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71960/ NA/0.76294 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-3
Game seconds remaining 1849
Quarter seconds remaining 49
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2735986682381772 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27360/0.26537/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation ARI 0.82 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 6/6 eligible events modeled