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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: CLE by 5.3; actual result: CLE by 3.
The 2.3-point difference was matched or exceeded in 638 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty yards: 74 versus 104.8 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 618 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: BAL by 3.0; actual result: CLE by 3. The difference was 6 points.
4,667 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Baltimore Ravens by 3
Final margin Cleveland Browns by 3
Difference 6 points
Cleveland Browns covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
4,667 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (64.1%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score CLE by 5.3
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Cleveland Browns chance to win during the game 146 preplay estimates across 170 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 24 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence 3.64 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
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Notable plays 4 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 03:47 Recorded game event
Cleveland Browns · Play 3527 (3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at BAL 36 for -7 yards (92-N.Madubuike). FUMBLES (92-N.Madubuike), RECOVERED by BAL-14-K.Hamilton at BAL 27. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 34-M.Burton.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 6.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:02 Recorded game event
Cleveland Browns · Play 4017 (:02) 25-A.Szmyt 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (38-K.Martin), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, RECOVERED by BAL-98-T.Jones at BAL 23. PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on BAL awarded CLE a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 8.0 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 02:08 Recorded game event
Baltimore Ravens · Play 3715 (2:08) (Run formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 170 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 170 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 25-A.Szmyt kicks 60 yards from CLE 35 to BAL 5. 26-R.Ali pushed ob at BAL 34 for 29 yards (59-W.Reid). Play 40 25-A.Szmyt kicks 60 yards from CLE 35 to BAL 5. 26-R.Ali pushed ob at BAL 34 for 29 yards (59-W.Reid).
Q114:56 (14:56) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 45 for 11 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren; 33-R.Hickman). Play 68 (14:56) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 45 for 11 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren; 33-R.Hickman).
Q114:17 (14:17) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers pushed ob at CLE 49 for 6 yards (33-R.Hickman). Play 92 (14:17) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers pushed ob at CLE 49 for 6 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Q1 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 39 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q409:17 Penalty · CLE (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (38-K.Martin). PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at BAL 10 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE 11.11 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 6
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 555
Half seconds remaining 555
Quarter seconds remaining 555
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:06 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 8011d37a5e4eba802ba149f58b01af9ba8c76490593b918ef82b6db1457f565aCLE by 3
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
638 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 618 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Carl Cheffers Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 79 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.4 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 50.6 yd per game. Away teams: 6.6 / 54.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Carl Cheffers; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Cleveland Browns · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Cleveland Browns · Opponent penalties Opponent BAL was charged 6 penalties for 29 yards.
Baltimore Ravens · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Baltimore Ravens · Opponent penalties Opponent CLE was charged 6 penalties for 45 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 146 model estimates across 170 recorded game entries.
24 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (170 entries) Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence 0.68 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence -3.05 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence -0.78 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence 1.23 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence 0.63 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence -0.31 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence -0.67 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence 11.11 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence 2.74 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence -6.8 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence -1.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence 3.18 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Ruling expected points consequence 0.35 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CLE Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64364/0.60630/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18957/ NA/0.21434 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76667/0.78371/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16757/ NA/0.18354 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79636/ NA/0.81335 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14551/ NA/0.14765 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80851/ NA/0.81227 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0.45 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15609/0.13345/0.15161 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81709/ NA/0.84016 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10406/ NA/0.12786 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82917/ NA/0.85772 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14275/ NA/0.12941 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0.71 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14932/0.14226/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79391/0.75988/0.81690 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0.02 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13778/ NA/0.13756 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 0.22 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84034/0.84742/0.84961 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 1.45 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14937/ NA/0.13483 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 2.15 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49141/ NA/0.46996 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49197/0.54718/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BAL Fourth down decision cost 3.2 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44389/ NA/0.41192 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CLE Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
CLE Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.36 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 26th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
BAL Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.36 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 26th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
CLE Field goal points above expectation -1.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
BAL Field goal points above expectation -2.22 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
CLE Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
BAL Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
CLE Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 170 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
BAL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 170 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
BAL Presnap called penalties above expectation 2.68 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 4 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.12 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.43 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BAL Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.51 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.62 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.17 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CLE Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.43 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
34 of 34 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 34 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 09:17 Recorded game event
Cleveland Browns · Play 3119 (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (38-K.Martin). PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at BAL 10 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on BAL awarded CLE a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 1.8 percentage points across this play.
13:46
(13:46) 22-D.Henry left end to CLE 32 for 17 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Play 122
(13:46) 22-D.Henry left end to CLE 32 for 17 yards (9-G.Delpit).
Q112:59 (12:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 6-J.Lane to CLE 21 for 11 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 144 (12:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 6-J.Lane to CLE 21 for 11 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q112:17 (12:17) 22-D.Henry left end to CLE 18 for 3 yards (97-D.Barnett; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 169 (12:17) 22-D.Henry left end to CLE 18 for 3 yards (97-D.Barnett; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q111:36 (11:36) 4-Z.Flowers right end to CLE 17 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit). CLE-9-G.Delpit was injured during the play. Play 191 (11:36) 4-Z.Flowers right end to CLE 17 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit). CLE-9-G.Delpit was injured during the play.
Q111:02 (11:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 6-J.Lane to CLE 9 for 8 yards (21-D.Ward; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 216 (11:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 6-J.Lane to CLE 9 for 8 yards (21-D.Ward; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q110:16 Timeout #1 by BAL at 10:16. Play 260 Timeout #1 by BAL at 10:16.
Q110:16 (10:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to CLE 1 for 8 yards (5-Q.Williams). Play 248 (10:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to CLE 1 for 8 yards (5-Q.Williams).
Q109:38 (9:38) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 1 for no gain (24-D.Thomas). Play 277 (9:38) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 1 for no gain (24-D.Thomas).
Q108:56 (8:56) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 2 for -1 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 299 (8:56) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 2 for -1 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q108:14 (8:14) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Williams]. Play 321 (8:14) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Williams].
Q108:11 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 347 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q108:11 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to CLE 2. 11-M.Corley to CLE 24 for 22 yards (40-T.Buchanan). Play 362 33-T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BAL 35 to CLE 2. 11-M.Corley to CLE 24 for 22 yards (40-T.Buchanan).
Q108:04 (8:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Boston (44-M.Humphrey). Play 397 (8:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Boston (44-M.Humphrey).
Q108:00 (8:00) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to CLE 29 for 5 yards (32-T.Simpson; 95-T.Robinson). Play 420 (8:00) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to CLE 29 for 5 yards (32-T.Simpson; 95-T.Robinson).
Q107:22 (7:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 21 for -8 yards (93-C.Campbell). Play 442 (7:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 21 for -8 yards (93-C.Campbell).
Q106:43 (6:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to BAL 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 39 for 5 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold; 11-M.Corley). Play 462 (6:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to BAL 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 39 for 5 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold; 11-M.Corley).
Q106:33 (6:33) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to CLE 32 for 29 yards (33-R.Hickman). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 32. Play 488 (6:33) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to CLE 32 for 29 yards (33-R.Hickman). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 32.
Q106:02 (6:02) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 14 for 3 yards (57-I.McGuire). Play 531 (6:02) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 14 for 3 yards (57-I.McGuire).
Q105:25 (5:25) 22-D.Henry left end to CLE 16 for -2 yards (92-S.Kamara). Play 555 (5:25) 22-D.Henry left end to CLE 16 for -2 yards (92-S.Kamara).
Q104:45 (4:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 7-R.Bateman. Play 577 (4:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 7-R.Bateman.
Q104:40 (4:40) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 600 (4:40) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q104:37 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CLE 35. Play 620 33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CLE 35.
Q104:37 (4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 36 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson). Play 644 (4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 36 for 1 yard (32-T.Simpson).
Q104:00 (4:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 45 for 9 yards (2-N.Wiggins) [92-N.Madubuike]. Play 671 (4:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 45 for 9 yards (2-N.Wiggins) [92-N.Madubuike].
Q103:17 (3:17) 36-A.Estime left tackle to CLE 45 for no gain (98-T.Jones). Play 696 (3:17) 36-A.Estime left tackle to CLE 45 for no gain (98-T.Jones).
Q102:37 (2:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 45 for 0 yards (0-R.Smith). Play 718 (2:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 45 for 0 yards (0-R.Smith).
Q101:57 (1:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 44-H.Fannin [0-R.Smith]. Play 738 (1:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 44-H.Fannin [0-R.Smith].
Q101:52 (1:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. Play 761 (1:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
Q101:46 (1:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 26 for 4 yards (97-D.Barnett; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 785 (1:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 26 for 4 yards (97-D.Barnett; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q101:04 (1:04) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 36 for 10 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 815 (1:04) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 36 for 10 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q100:26 (:26) PENALTY on BAL-89-M.Andrews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 36 - No Play. Play 837 (:26) PENALTY on BAL-89-M.Andrews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 36 - No Play.
Q100:10 (:10) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 22-D.Henry to BAL 33 for 2 yards (5-Q.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger). Penalty on BAL-51-E.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Penalty on BAL, Illegal Formation, declined. Play 861 (:10) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 22-D.Henry to BAL 33 for 2 yards (5-Q.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger). Penalty on BAL-51-E.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Penalty on BAL, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 899 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers. Play 919 (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers.
Q214:57 (14:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BAL 37 for 4 yards (26-M.Harden). Play 942 (14:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BAL 37 for 4 yards (26-M.Harden).
Q214:30 (14:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to CLE 4, impetus ends at CLE 1, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin. Play 972 (14:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to CLE 4, impetus ends at CLE 1, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.
Q214:18 (14:18) 36-A.Estime left tackle to CLE 11 for 7 yards (9-Z.Young). Play 994 (14:18) 36-A.Estime left tackle to CLE 11 for 7 yards (9-Z.Young).
Q213:50 (13:50) 36-A.Estime left tackle to CLE 13 for 2 yards (9-Z.Young). Play 1016 (13:50) 36-A.Estime left tackle to CLE 13 for 2 yards (9-Z.Young).
Q213:08 (13:08) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CLE 16 for 3 yards (98-T.Jones). Play 1038 (13:08) 4-D.Watson up the middle to CLE 16 for 3 yards (98-T.Jones).
Q212:34 (12:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left. Penalty on CLE-55-S.Fano, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Play 1060 (12:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left. Penalty on CLE-55-S.Fano, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q212:30 (12:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin to CLE 17 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton). Play 1094 (12:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin to CLE 17 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton).
Q211:47 (11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to CLE 21 for 4 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 1119 (11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to CLE 21 for 4 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q211:06 (11:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to BAL 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley. Play 1141 (11:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to BAL 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley.
Q210:56 (10:56) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews. Play 1161 (10:56) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews.
Q210:50 (10:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 43-J.Hill to BAL 19 for 2 yards (57-I.McGuire; 28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 1191 (10:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 43-J.Hill to BAL 19 for 2 yards (57-I.McGuire; 28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q210:06 (10:06) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 24 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) [5-Q.Williams]. Play 1216 (10:06) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 24 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) [5-Q.Williams].
Q209:20 (9:20) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. Play 1241 (9:20) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
Q209:14 (9:14) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right guard to CLE 39 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith; 24-M.Starks). Play 1261 (9:14) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right guard to CLE 39 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith; 24-M.Starks).
Q208:32 (8:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 47 for 14 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 1290 (8:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 47 for 14 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q207:50 (7:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Concepcion left end pushed ob at BAL 45 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 1315 (7:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Concepcion left end pushed ob at BAL 45 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q207:12 (7:12) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin left guard to BAL 40 for 5 yards (15-M.Green). Play 1342 (7:12) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin left guard to BAL 40 for 5 yards (15-M.Green).
Q206:32 (6:32) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-3-J.Jeudy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 40 - No Play. Play 1364 (6:32) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-3-J.Jeudy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 40 - No Play.
Q206:12 (6:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 44-H.Fannin (24-M.Starks). Play 1388 (6:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 44-H.Fannin (24-M.Starks).
Q206:07 (6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley. Play 1411 (6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley.
Q205:57 (5:57) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 3 for 1 yard (92-S.Kamara). Play 1431 (5:57) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 3 for 1 yard (92-S.Kamara).
Q205:14 (5:14) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 2 for -1 yards (24-D.Thomas, 96-M.Collins). Play 1462 (5:14) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 2 for -1 yards (24-D.Thomas, 96-M.Collins).
Q204:32 (4:32) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 6-J.Lane to BAL 12 for 10 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) [8-J.Verse]. Play 1484 (4:32) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 6-J.Lane to BAL 12 for 10 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) [8-J.Verse].
Q203:50 (3:50) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 12 for no gain (49-C.Schwesinger; 53-C.Williams). Play 1509 (3:50) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 12 for no gain (49-C.Schwesinger; 53-C.Williams).
Q203:06 (3:06) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 81-D.Walker (7-T.Campbell). Play 1531 (3:06) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 81-D.Walker (7-T.Campbell).
Q203:01 (3:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 29 for 17 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren) [98-A.Huntington]. Play 1554 (3:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 29 for 17 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren) [98-A.Huntington].
Q202:13 (2:13) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 29 for 0 yards (5-Q.Williams). Play 1579 (2:13) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 29 for 0 yards (5-Q.Williams).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 21 for -8 yards (96-M.Collins). Play 1599 (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 21 for -8 yards (96-M.Collins).
Q201:55 Timeout #1 by CLE at 01:55. Play 1638 Timeout #1 by CLE at 01:55.
Q201:55 (1:55) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 10 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 1626 (1:55) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 10 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q201:42 Timeout #2 by CLE at 01:42. Play 1667 Timeout #2 by CLE at 01:42.
Q201:42 (1:42) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. Play 1655 (1:42) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
Q201:36 (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (38-K.Martin). Play 1682 (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (38-K.Martin).
Q201:32 (1:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 24 for -5 yards (38-K.Martin). Play 1705 (1:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 24 for -5 yards (38-K.Martin).
Q201:25 Timeout #2 by BAL at 01:25. Play 1737 Timeout #2 by BAL at 01:25.
Q201:25 (1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 1-K.Concepcion. Play 1725 (1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 1-K.Concepcion.
Q201:19 (1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BAL 32, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. Play 1755 (1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BAL 32, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
Q201:12 (1:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 36 for 4 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 26-M.Harden). Play 1779 (1:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 36 for 4 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 26-M.Harden).
Q200:51 (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 43-J.Hill to BAL 39 for 3 yards (33-R.Hickman). Play 1804 (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 43-J.Hill to BAL 39 for 3 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Q200:32 (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 43 for 4 yards (5-Q.Williams). Play 1829 (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 43 for 4 yards (5-Q.Williams).
Q200:26 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:26. Play 1866 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:26.
Q200:26 (:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep right to 6-J.Lane (21-D.Ward) [98-A.Huntington]. Play 1854 (:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep right to 6-J.Lane (21-D.Ward) [98-A.Huntington].
Q200:21 (:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker (26-M.Harden) [98-A.Huntington]. Play 1884 (:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker (26-M.Harden) [98-A.Huntington].
Q200:13 (:13) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43 - No Play. Play 1907 (:13) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43 - No Play.
Q200:13 (:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers (26-M.Harden). Play 1931 (:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers (26-M.Harden).
Q200:07 (:07) 30-R.Eckley punts 52 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin. Play 1954 (:07) 30-R.Eckley punts 52 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 1974 Q315:00 33-T.Loop kicks 58 yards from BAL 35 to CLE 7. 11-M.Corley to CLE 28 for 21 yards (48-C.Jones). Play 1994 33-T.Loop kicks 58 yards from BAL 35 to CLE 7. 11-M.Corley to CLE 28 for 21 yards (48-C.Jones).
Q314:53 (14:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 23 for -5 yards (sack split by 95-T.Robinson and 92-N.Madubuike). Play 2017 (14:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 23 for -5 yards (sack split by 95-T.Robinson and 92-N.Madubuike).
Q314:13 (14:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to CLE 28 for 5 yards (92-N.Madubuike). Play 2042 (14:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to CLE 28 for 5 yards (92-N.Madubuike).
Q313:30 (13:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 37 for 9 yards (95-T.Robinson). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 2064 (13:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 37 for 9 yards (95-T.Robinson). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q312:41 (12:41) 34-M.Burton up the middle to CLE 39 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 32-T.Simpson). Play 2089 (12:41) 34-M.Burton up the middle to CLE 39 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 32-T.Simpson).
Q312:00 (12:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to BAL 46 for 15 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 2113 (12:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-D.Boston to BAL 46 for 15 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q311:20 (11:20) 36-A.Estime up the middle to BAL 45 for 1 yard (15-M.Green). PENALTY on CLE, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play. Play 2138 (11:20) 36-A.Estime up the middle to BAL 45 for 1 yard (15-M.Green). PENALTY on CLE, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play.
Q310:56 (10:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to BAL 34 for 17 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 24-M.Starks). Play 2171 (10:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to BAL 34 for 17 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 24-M.Starks).
Q310:17 (10:17) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to BAL 34 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike). Play 2196 (10:17) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to BAL 34 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike).
Q309:42 (9:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to BAL 28 for 6 yards (92-N.Madubuike). Play 2218 (9:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to BAL 28 for 6 yards (92-N.Madubuike).
Q309:00 (9:00) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin up the middle to BAL 14 for 14 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 28 - No Play. Play 2240 (9:00) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin up the middle to BAL 14 for 14 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 28 - No Play.
Q308:33 (8:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to BAL 30 for 8 yards (38-K.Martin). Play 2273 (8:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to BAL 30 for 8 yards (38-K.Martin).
Q307:53 (7:53) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 2298 (7:53) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q307:48 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35. Play 2318 25-A.Szmyt kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BAL 35.
Q307:48 (7:48) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 36 for 1 yard (8-J.Verse). Play 2347 (7:48) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 36 for 1 yard (8-J.Verse).
Q307:12 (7:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 39 for 3 yards (92-S.Kamara). Play 2369 (7:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 39 for 3 yards (92-S.Kamara).
Q306:33 (6:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 6-J.Lane to 50 for 11 yards (33-R.Hickman). Play 2394 (6:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 6-J.Lane to 50 for 11 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Q305:54 (5:54) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end to CLE 45 for 5 yards (98-A.Huntington). Play 2419 (5:54) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end to CLE 45 for 5 yards (98-A.Huntington).
Q305:08 (5:08) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 85-J.Cuevas. Play 2441 (5:08) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 85-J.Cuevas.
Q305:03 (5:03) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 45 - No Play. Play 2464 (5:03) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 45 - No Play.
Q305:03 (5:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers. Play 2488 (5:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers.
Q304:58 (4:58) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. Play 2511 (4:58) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
Q304:52 (4:52) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right tackle to CLE 19 for 9 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 94-J.Jenkins). Play 2531 (4:52) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right tackle to CLE 19 for 9 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 94-J.Jenkins).
Q304:08 (4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 16 for -3 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 2560 (4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 16 for -3 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q303:20 (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 14 for -2 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). Play 2585 (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 14 for -2 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
Q302:42 (2:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to BAL 30, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 40 for 10 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold). Play 2605 (2:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to BAL 30, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 40 for 10 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).
Q302:32 (2:32) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 39 for -1 yards (92-S.Kamara). Play 2631 (2:32) 22-D.Henry left guard to BAL 39 for -1 yards (92-S.Kamara).
Q301:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers. Play 2660 (1:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers.
Q301:45 (1:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to CLE 30 for 31 yards (26-M.Harden). Play 2683 (1:45) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to CLE 30 for 31 yards (26-M.Harden).
Q300:57 (:57) 5-T.Huntley sacked at CLE 39 for -9 yards (57-I.McGuire). Play 2708 (:57) 5-T.Huntley sacked at CLE 39 for -9 yards (57-I.McGuire).
Q300:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 44, and recovers at CLE 43. 5-T.Huntley to CLE 42 for 1 yard (8-J.Verse, 96-M.Collins). Play 2728 (:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 44, and recovers at CLE 43. 5-T.Huntley to CLE 42 for 1 yard (8-J.Verse, 96-M.Collins).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 2755 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas to CLE 31 for 11 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). Play 2775 (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas to CLE 31 for 11 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
Q414:18 (14:18) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. Play 2800 (14:18) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Q414:13 (14:13) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 86-B.Whiteheart to CLE 47 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 40-T.Buchanan). Play 2821 (14:13) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 86-B.Whiteheart to CLE 47 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 40-T.Buchanan).
Q413:36 (13:36) 36-A.Estime left guard to CLE 45 for -2 yards (14-K.Hamilton, 9-Z.Young). Play 2853 (13:36) 36-A.Estime left guard to CLE 45 for -2 yards (14-K.Hamilton, 9-Z.Young).
Q412:57 (12:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston (2-N.Wiggins). Play 2875 (12:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston (2-N.Wiggins).
Q412:51 (12:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to BAL 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. Play 2910 (12:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to BAL 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
Q412:45 (12:45) PENALTY on CLE-53-C.Williams, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play. Play 2929 (12:45) PENALTY on CLE-53-C.Williams, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play.
Q412:45 (12:45) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 33 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 7-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger), RECOVERED by CLE-7-T.Campbell at BAL 35. Play 2960 (12:45) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 33 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 7-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger), RECOVERED by CLE-7-T.Campbell at BAL 35.
Q412:36 (12:36) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right tackle to BAL 28 for 7 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Play 2998 (12:36) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right tackle to BAL 28 for 7 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q411:58 (11:58) (Shotgun) 36-A.Estime up the middle to BAL 29 for -1 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 3020 (11:58) (Shotgun) 36-A.Estime up the middle to BAL 29 for -1 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q411:17 (11:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to BAL 14 for 15 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 24-M.Starks). Play 3042 (11:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 1-K.Concepcion to BAL 14 for 15 yards (21-J.Hawkins; 24-M.Starks).
Q410:34 (10:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 38-J.McLaughlin to BAL 10 for 4 yards (32-T.Simpson). Play 3067 (10:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 38-J.McLaughlin to BAL 10 for 4 yards (32-T.Simpson).
Q409:55 (9:55) 1-K.Concepcion right end pushed ob at BAL 10 for no gain (2-N.Wiggins). Play 3092 (9:55) 1-K.Concepcion right end pushed ob at BAL 10 for no gain (2-N.Wiggins).
Q409:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (38-K.Martin). PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at BAL 10 - No Play. Play 3119 (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 1-K.Concepcion (38-K.Martin). PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at BAL 10 - No Play.
Q409:15 (9:15) (Shotgun) 36-A.Estime right tackle to BAL 2 for 4 yards (92-N.Madubuike). Play 3153 (9:15) (Shotgun) 36-A.Estime right tackle to BAL 2 for 4 yards (92-N.Madubuike).
Q408:37 (8:37) 36-A.Estime right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3175 (8:37) 36-A.Estime right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q408:33 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 3198 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q408:33 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to BAL 1. 26-R.Ali MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 2. 26-R.Ali to BAL 16 for 14 yards (31-D.McMillon). Play 3213 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to BAL 1. 26-R.Ali MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 2. 26-R.Ali to BAL 16 for 14 yards (31-D.McMillon).
Q408:27 (8:27) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 21 for 5 yards (5-Q.Williams). Play 3256 (8:27) 22-D.Henry left end to BAL 21 for 5 yards (5-Q.Williams).
Q407:53 (7:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 23 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse; 49-C.Schwesinger). Play 3278 (7:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 23 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse; 49-C.Schwesinger).
Q407:14 (7:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (21-D.Ward). Play 3300 (7:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (21-D.Ward).
Q407:09 (7:09) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 40 for 13 yards (39-K.Jackson). Play 3323 (7:09) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 40 for 13 yards (39-K.Jackson).
Q406:59 (6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-T.Wallace pushed ob at BAL 48 for 12 yards (0-R.Smith) [9-Z.Young]. Play 3354 (6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-T.Wallace pushed ob at BAL 48 for 12 yards (0-R.Smith) [9-Z.Young].
Q406:27 (6:27) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin up the middle to BAL 44 for 4 yards (98-T.Jones). Play 3384 (6:27) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin up the middle to BAL 44 for 4 yards (98-T.Jones).
Q405:50 (5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end pushed ob at BAL 39 for 5 yards (14-K.Hamilton). Play 3406 (5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end pushed ob at BAL 39 for 5 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
Q405:09 (5:09) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 39 - No Play. Play 3433 (5:09) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 39 - No Play.
Q405:09 (5:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 31 for 13 yards (24-M.Starks) [93-C.Campbell]. Play 3457 (5:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 31 for 13 yards (24-M.Starks) [93-C.Campbell].
Q404:33 (4:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Boston. Play 3482 (4:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Boston.
Q404:27 (4:27) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to BAL 29 for 2 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 32-T.Simpson). Play 3505 (4:27) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin left tackle to BAL 29 for 2 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 32-T.Simpson).
Q403:47 Timeout #1 by CLE at 03:47. Play 3539 Timeout #1 by CLE at 03:47.
Q403:47 (3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at BAL 36 for -7 yards (92-N.Madubuike). FUMBLES (92-N.Madubuike), RECOVERED by BAL-14-K.Hamilton at BAL 27. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 34-M.Burton. Play 3527 (3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at BAL 36 for -7 yards (92-N.Madubuike). FUMBLES (92-N.Madubuike), RECOVERED by BAL-14-K.Hamilton at BAL 27. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 34-M.Burton.
Q403:44 (3:44) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 3559 (3:44) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q403:40 (3:40) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to BAL 40 for 2 yards (5-Q.Williams; 24-D.Thomas). Play 3580 (3:40) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to BAL 40 for 2 yards (5-Q.Williams; 24-D.Thomas).
Q403:01 (3:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 4-Z.Flowers (28-E.McNeil-Warren). BAL-79-R.Stanley was injured during the play. Play 3605 (3:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 4-Z.Flowers (28-E.McNeil-Warren). BAL-79-R.Stanley was injured during the play.
Q402:57 (2:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 46 for 6 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren). Play 3631 (2:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 46 for 6 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
Q402:08 (2:08) (Run formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play. Play 3715 (2:08) (Run formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play.
Q402:08 (2:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback. Play 3743 (2:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
Q401:59 (1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 38-J.McLaughlin to CLE 29 for 9 yards (21-J.Hawkins). The penalty was assisted by replay. 10-second runoff. Play 3761 (1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 38-J.McLaughlin to CLE 29 for 9 yards (21-J.Hawkins). The penalty was assisted by replay. 10-second runoff.
Q401:39 (1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Boston (44-M.Humphrey). Play 3806 (1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Boston (44-M.Humphrey).
Q401:34 (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 36-A.Estime up the middle to CLE 33 for 4 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 32-T.Simpson). Play 3831 (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 36-A.Estime up the middle to CLE 33 for 4 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 32-T.Simpson).
Q401:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin to CLE 33 for no gain (38-K.Martin). Play 3853 (1:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin to CLE 33 for no gain (38-K.Martin).
Q400:52 (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 38 for 5 yards (15-M.Green). Play 3878 (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 38 for 5 yards (15-M.Green).
Q400:42 (:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 29 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks). Play 3905 (:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy to BAL 29 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q400:22 Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:22. Play 3942 Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:22.
Q400:22 (:22) 38-J.McLaughlin right guard to BAL 26 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 98-T.Jones). Play 3930 (:22) 38-J.McLaughlin right guard to BAL 26 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 98-T.Jones).
Q400:17 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:17. Play 3971 Timeout #2 by BAL at 00:17.
Q400:17 (:17) 36-A.Estime right guard to BAL 23 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith). Play 3959 (:17) 36-A.Estime right guard to BAL 23 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith).
Q400:11 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:11. Play 4000 Timeout #3 by BAL at 00:11.
Q400:11 (:11) 4-D.Watson left end to BAL 23 for no gain (32-T.Simpson). Play 3988 (:11) 4-D.Watson left end to BAL 23 for no gain (32-T.Simpson).
Q400:02 Timeout #2 by CLE at 00:02. Play 4029 Timeout #2 by CLE at 00:02.
Q400:02 (:02) 25-A.Szmyt 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (38-K.Martin), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, RECOVERED by BAL-98-T.Jones at BAL 23. PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play. Play 4017 (:02) 25-A.Szmyt 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (38-K.Martin), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, RECOVERED by BAL-98-T.Jones at BAL 23. PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play.
Q400:00 (:00) 25-A.Szmyt 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Play 4067 (:00) 25-A.Szmyt 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
4
Game seconds remaining 555
Half seconds remaining 555
Quarter seconds remaining 555
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE 2.74 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 6
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 555
Half seconds remaining 555
Quarter seconds remaining 555
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 10
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 555
Half seconds remaining 555
Quarter seconds remaining 555
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q405:09 Penalty · CLE (5:09) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE -6.8 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 309
Half seconds remaining 309
Quarter seconds remaining 309
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 309
Half seconds remaining 309
Quarter seconds remaining 309
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE -1.09 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 309
Half seconds remaining 309
Quarter seconds remaining 309
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 309
Half seconds remaining 309
Quarter seconds remaining 309
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q100:26 Penalty · BAL (:26) PENALTY on BAL-89-M.Andrews, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE 3.64 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2726
Half seconds remaining 926
Quarter seconds remaining 26
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2726
Half seconds remaining 926
Quarter seconds remaining 26
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE 0.68 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2726
Half seconds remaining 926
Quarter seconds remaining 26
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2726
Half seconds remaining 926
Quarter seconds remaining 26
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q402:08 Fourth down · BAL (2:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 3.2 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.06334460807419733
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.9644444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 128
Half seconds remaining 128
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 128
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4438859318503427 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44389/ NA/0.41192 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:08 Penalty · BAL (2:08) (Run formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE 3.18 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 7
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 128
Half seconds remaining 128
Quarter seconds remaining 128
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 2
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 128
Half seconds remaining 128
Quarter seconds remaining 128
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE 0.35 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 7
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 128
Half seconds remaining 128
Quarter seconds remaining 128
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 2
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 128
Half seconds remaining 128
Quarter seconds remaining 128
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:32 Penalty · CLE (6:32) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CLE-3-J.Jeudy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE -3.05 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2192
Half seconds remaining 392
Quarter seconds remaining 392
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 3
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2192
Half seconds remaining 392
Quarter seconds remaining 392
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE -0.78 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2192
Half seconds remaining 392
Quarter seconds remaining 392
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 3
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2192
Half seconds remaining 392
Quarter seconds remaining 392
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q407:09 Fourth down · BAL (7:09) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 40 for 13 yards (39-K.Jackson). + Fourth down decision cost BAL 2.15 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.08850280392823533
Yardline 100 77
Elapsed share 0.8808333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 429
Half seconds remaining 429
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 429
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.491410558472641 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49141/ NA/0.46996 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:51 Fourth down · CLE (12:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to BAL 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 1.45 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.1294162863059773
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.7858333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 771
Half seconds remaining 771
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 771
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1493656494608151 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14937/ NA/0.13483 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:03 Penalty · BAL (5:03) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE 1.23 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 1203
Half seconds remaining 1203
Quarter seconds remaining 303
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 1203
Half seconds remaining 1203
Quarter seconds remaining 303
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE 0.63 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 1203
Half seconds remaining 1203
Quarter seconds remaining 303
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 1203
Half seconds remaining 1203
Quarter seconds remaining 303
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q206:07 Fourth down · CLE (6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0.45 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.6104188405661871
Yardline 100 45
Elapsed share 0.3980555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2167
Half seconds remaining 367
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 367
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1560882511522656 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.15609/0.13345/0.15161 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q412:45 Penalty · BAL (12:45) PENALTY on CLE-53-C.Williams, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE -0.31 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 72
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 765
Half seconds remaining 765
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 765
Half seconds remaining 765
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence CLE -0.67 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 72
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 765
Half seconds remaining 765
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 77
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 765
Half seconds remaining 765
Quarter seconds remaining 765
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q302:42 Fourth down · CLE (2:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to BAL 30, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 40 for 10 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0.02 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.1788178281268181
Yardline 100 86
Elapsed share 0.705
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1062
Half seconds remaining 1062
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 162
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1377834033210883 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13778/ NA/0.13756 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 27 recorded events Q108:14 Fourth down · BAL (8:14) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Williams]. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.910760208048912
Yardline 100 2
Elapsed share 0.1127777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3194
Half seconds remaining 1394
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 494
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6436449426281673 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64364/0.60630/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q106:43 Fourth down · CLE (6:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to BAL 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 39 for 5 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold; 11-M.Corley). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.727007369610609
Yardline 100 79
Elapsed share 0.1380555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1 Q104:40 Kick · BAL (4:40) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.506401056617071
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.1722222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q101:52 Fourth down · CLE (1:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.249891481958669
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.2188888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q214:30 Fourth down · BAL (14:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to CLE 4, impetus ends at CLE 1, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.067456755612026
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.2583333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q211:06 Fourth down · CLE (11:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to BAL 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.8509620794993111
Yardline 100 79
Elapsed share 0.315
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q209:20 Fourth down · BAL (9:20) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.7564147144590095
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.3444444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q201:42 Fourth down · BAL (1:42) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.4547286652609158
Yardline 100 69
Elapsed share 0.4716666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q201:19 Fourth down · CLE (1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BAL 32, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.4432550532887756
Yardline 100 76
Elapsed share 0.4780555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q200:07 Fourth down · BAL (:07) 30-R.Eckley punts 52 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.4091759853093482
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.4980555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q312:41 Fourth down · CLE (12:41) 34-M.Burton up the middle to CLE 39 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 32-T.Simpson). + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.3479027974918138
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.5386111111111112
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q304:58 Fourth down · BAL (4:58) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.2079876449714421
Yardline 100 50
Elapsed share 0.6672222222222223
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q403:44 Kick · CLE (3:44) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.07047488861709617
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.9377777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q108:11 Kick · BAL 33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Extra point points above expectation BAL 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q106:33 Penalty · BAL (6:33) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to CLE 32 for 29 yards (33-R.Hickman). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 32. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:10 Fourth down · BAL (:10) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 22-D.Henry to BAL 33 for 2 yards (5-Q.Williams; 49-C.Schwesinger). Penalty on BAL-51-E.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Penalty on BAL, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:34 Fourth down · CLE (12:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left. Penalty on CLE-55-S.Fano, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:13 Penalty · BAL (:13) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:20 Penalty · CLE (11:20) 36-A.Estime up the middle to BAL 45 for 1 yard (15-M.Green). PENALTY on CLE, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:00 Penalty · CLE (9:00) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin up the middle to BAL 14 for 14 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 28 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:53 Kick · CLE (7:53) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Fourth down decision cost CLE 0.71 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CLE
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.2526292813939239
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.6186111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam CLE
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q300:16 Fumble · BAL (:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 44, and recovers at CLE 43. 5-T.Huntley to CLE 42 for 1 yard (8-J.Verse, 96-M.Collins). + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q414:18 Kick · BAL (14:18) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. + Fourth down decision cost BAL 0.22 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BAL
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team BAL
Home team CLE
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.1425511526104891
Yardline 100 31
Elapsed share 0.7616666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam BAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q412:45 Fumble · BAL (12:45) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 33 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 7-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger), RECOVERED by CLE-7-T.Campbell at BAL 35. + Fumble recoveries above expectation CLE 0.36 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation BAL -0.36 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:33 Kick · CLE 25-A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Extra point points above expectation CLE 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:02 Penalty · CLE (:02) 25-A.Szmyt 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (38-K.Martin), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, RECOVERED by BAL-98-T.Jones at BAL 23. PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost CLE Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:00 Kick · CLE (:00) 25-A.Szmyt 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. + Field goal points above expectation CLE -1.59 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
nflverse-raw-pbp Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:10 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 efd51725dbadc6866b2b5cdb79c4e8b30dbfc67943543835893c7e95b280f77d
nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 f8f9feebec30adf67dd9a2d7bc88d102889e32fad0254a3caa3d845c8cbdae1eModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: f35ccf2804bda058e29e5adddaa7fc085d2b269ff222df77b22e8d2f34289008
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 2 · Latest ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:16 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 18, 2026, 8:16 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Game seconds remaining 3103
Half seconds remaining 1303
Quarter seconds remaining 403
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2143440692825065 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.18957/ NA/0.21434 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 2980
Half seconds remaining 1180
Quarter seconds remaining 280
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.783706318086791 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76667/0.78371/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BAL -2.22 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
-10
Game seconds remaining 2812
Half seconds remaining 1012
Quarter seconds remaining 112
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1835405394349602 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16757/ NA/0.18354 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining 2670
Half seconds remaining 870
Quarter seconds remaining 870
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8133475152105359 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79636/ NA/0.81335 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-10
Game seconds remaining 2466
Half seconds remaining 666
Quarter seconds remaining 666
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1476532427167308 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14551/ NA/0.14765 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining 2360
Half seconds remaining 560
Quarter seconds remaining 560
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8122734065027769 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80851/ NA/0.81227 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining 1902
Half seconds remaining 102
Quarter seconds remaining 102
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8401594194424443 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81709/ NA/0.84016 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-10
Game seconds remaining 1879
Quarter seconds remaining 79
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1278594985305725 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10406/ NA/0.12786 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
10
Game seconds remaining 1807
Quarter seconds remaining 7
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 0 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.857717675526088 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82917/ NA/0.85772 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-10
Game seconds remaining 1661
Half seconds remaining 1661
Quarter seconds remaining 761
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1427455182522195 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14275/ NA/0.12941 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 1198
Half seconds remaining 1198
Quarter seconds remaining 298
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8169005546028796 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.79391/0.75988/0.81690 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 224
Half seconds remaining 224
Quarter seconds remaining 224
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.5471782061183622 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49197/0.54718/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE -1.59 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-10
Game seconds remaining 1373
Half seconds remaining 1373
Quarter seconds remaining 473
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1493155034255424 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14932/0.14226/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CLE -1.59 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 858
Half seconds remaining 858
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8496055898182944 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84034/0.84742/0.84961 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BAL -2.22 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled