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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: BUF by 1.1; actual result: BUF by 3.
The 1.9-point difference was matched or exceeded in 668 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty yards: 139 versus 99.4 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 499 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: BUF by 5.5; actual result: BUF by 3. The difference was 2.5 points.
6,108 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Buffalo Bills by 5.5
Final margin Buffalo Bills by 3
Difference 2.5 points
Las Vegas Raiders covered the spread.
6,108 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (83.9%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score BUF by 1.1
Actual final margin BUF by 3
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Las Vegas Raiders chance to win during the game 149 preplay estimates across 182 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 33 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
LV Observed ruling consequence -3.32 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence -0.66 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
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Notable plays 4 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 09:57 Recorded game event
Buffalo Bills · Play 2348 (9:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 18 - No Play.
A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified. Estimated chance to win moved 6.1 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 08:11 Recorded game event
Buffalo Bills · Play 2536 (8:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-T.Stukes). PENALTY on LV-31-T.Stukes, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LV awarded BUF a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 5.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 04:21 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 3999 (4:21) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 36 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 182 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 182 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to BUF 4. 7-R.Davis pushed ob at BUF 44 for 40 yards (14-M.Gay). Play 39 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to BUF 4. 7-R.Davis pushed ob at BUF 44 for 40 yards (14-M.Gay).
Q114:52 (14:52) 4-J.Cook right guard to LV 47 for 9 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-T.Stukes). Play 62 (14:52) 4-J.Cook right guard to LV 47 for 9 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-T.Stukes).
Q114:05 Timeout #1 by BUF at 14:05. Play 98 Timeout #1 by BUF at 14:05.
Q114:05 (14:05) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LV 44 for 3 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 84 (14:05) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LV 44 for 3 yards (3-T.Johnson).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 31 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q308:11 Penalty · BUF (8:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-T.Stukes). PENALTY on LV-31-T.Stukes, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV -10.34 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1384
Half seconds remaining 1384
Quarter seconds remaining 484
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 11:55 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 97bafbf0507c3bda2075d26f34d735f7557802d552a23a3707d63adfcf84d9b0This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
668 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 499 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Shawn Smith Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 77 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12 accepted penalties for 96.9 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.8 / 47.7 yd per game. Away teams: 6.2 / 49.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Shawn Smith; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Las Vegas Raiders · Opponent penalties Opponent BUF was charged 8 penalties for 77 yards.
Buffalo Bills · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Buffalo Bills · Opponent penalties Opponent LV was charged 7 penalties for 62 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 149 model estimates across 182 recorded game entries.
33 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (182 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence 5.04 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence 1.42 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence 1.17 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence 0.72 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence -2.78 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence -0.71 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
BUF Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence -10.34 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence -2.85 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence -8.59 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence -2.22 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence 3.54 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Ruling expected points consequence 0.91 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
BUF Fourth down decision cost 1.21 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70693/0.69480/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60767/0.60982/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0.01 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.34040/ NA/0.34032 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0.51 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20481/0.19972/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68393/ NA/0.72970 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28628/ NA/0.31159 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65378/0.68710/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 1.85 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11340/0.09486/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85307/ NA/0.87238 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
BUF Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97188/0.98024/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
LV Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
BUF Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
LV Field goal points above expectation 0.2 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
BUF Field goal points above expectation 1.15 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LV Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 11th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
BUF Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 11th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
LV Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 182 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
BUF Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 182 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
BUF Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.17 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.26 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
66 of 66 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 66 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.44 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 46 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
BUF Pass interference called penalties above expectation 1.37 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 46 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.67 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
68 of 68 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 68 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.91 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
68 of 68 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 68 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.56 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.53 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
38 of 38 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 38 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Estimated chance to win moved 3.6 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 04:43 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 3894 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LV 3. 23-D.Laube to LV 28 for 25 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 28.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.4 percentage points across this play.
Q113:33 (13:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 42 for 2 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 115 (13:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 42 for 2 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q112:55 (12:55) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left. Play 140 (12:55) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left.
Q112:49 (12:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson pushed ob at LV 28 for 14 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 163 (12:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson pushed ob at LV 28 for 14 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q112:13 (12:13) 68-T.Grable reported in as eligible. 26-T.Johnson up the middle to LV 25 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby; 96-J.Laulu). Play 188 (12:13) 68-T.Grable reported in as eligible. 26-T.Johnson up the middle to LV 25 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby; 96-J.Laulu).
Q111:36 Timeout #2 by BUF at 11:36. Play 224 Timeout #2 by BUF at 11:36.
Q111:36 (11:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 21 for 4 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 212 (11:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 21 for 4 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q110:58 (10:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at LV 26 for -5 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 244 (10:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at LV 26 for -5 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q110:16 (10:16) 16-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 264 (10:16) 16-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q110:12 16-T.Bass kicks 59 yards from BUF 35 to LV 6. 81-D.Young to LV 30 for 24 yards (44-J.Andreessen). Play 284 16-T.Bass kicks 59 yards from BUF 35 to LV 6. 81-D.Young to LV 30 for 24 yards (44-J.Andreessen).
Q110:07 (10:07) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right end pushed ob at LV 30 for no gain (42-D.Williams). Play 307 (10:07) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right end pushed ob at LV 30 for no gain (42-D.Williams).
Q109:34 (9:34) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 33 for 3 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 15-G.Rousseau). Play 332 (9:34) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 33 for 3 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 15-G.Rousseau).
Q108:50 (8:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker to BUF 41 for 26 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). Play 354 (8:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker to BUF 41 for 26 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q108:09 (8:09) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to BUF 33 for 8 yards (99-T.Parker; 24-C.Bishop). Play 379 (8:09) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to BUF 33 for 8 yards (99-T.Parker; 24-C.Bishop).
Q107:31 (7:31) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to BUF 30 for 3 yards (90-D.Carter; 99-T.Parker). Play 401 (7:31) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to BUF 30 for 3 yards (90-D.Carter; 99-T.Parker).
Q106:51 (6:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-M.Washington pushed ob at BUF 23 for 7 yards (42-D.Williams). Play 423 (6:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-M.Washington pushed ob at BUF 23 for 7 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q106:18 (6:18) PENALTY on LV-34-C.Heyward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play. Play 448 (6:18) PENALTY on LV-34-C.Heyward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play.
Q105:59 (5:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to BUF 21 for 7 yards (8-T.Bernard; 97-G.Gaines). Play 472 (5:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to BUF 21 for 7 yards (8-T.Bernard; 97-G.Gaines).
Q105:18 (5:18) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 12 for 9 yards (42-D.Williams). Play 502 (5:18) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 12 for 9 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q104:37 (4:37) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers. PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at BUF 12 - No Play. Play 527 (4:37) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers. PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at BUF 12 - No Play.
Q104:32 (4:32) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 563 (4:32) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q104:27 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 581 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q104:27 14-M.Gay kicks 54 yards from LV 35 to BUF 11. 7-R.Davis to BUF 32 for 21 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 596 14-M.Gay kicks 54 yards from LV 35 to BUF 11. 7-R.Davis to BUF 32 for 21 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q104:20 (4:20) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 5-J.Palmer ran ob at LV 31 for 37 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 619 (4:20) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 5-J.Palmer ran ob at LV 31 for 37 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q103:43 (3:43) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LV 29 for 2 yards (98-M.Crosby). Play 644 (3:43) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LV 29 for 2 yards (98-M.Crosby).
Q103:03 (3:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to LV 19 for 10 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 666 (3:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to LV 19 for 10 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q102:22 (2:22) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 17 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean; 98-M.Crosby). Play 691 (2:22) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 17 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean; 98-M.Crosby).
Q101:45 (1:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 10 for 7 yards (51-M.Koonce). Play 713 (1:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 10 for 7 yards (51-M.Koonce).
Q101:22 (1:22) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to LV 8 for 2 yards (11-J.Chinn; 17-N.Dean). Play 738 (1:22) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to LV 8 for 2 yards (11-J.Chinn; 17-N.Dean).
Q100:44 (:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 5 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 760 (:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 5 for 3 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 785 Q215:00 (15:00) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 5 - No Play. Play 805 (15:00) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 5 - No Play.
Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [98-M.Crosby]. Play 829 (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [98-M.Crosby].
Q214:52 Timeout #1 by LV at 14:52. Play 875 Timeout #1 by LV at 14:52.
Q214:52 (14:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Kincaid (31-T.Stukes). Play 852 (14:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Kincaid (31-T.Stukes).
Q214:48 (14:48) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 893 (14:48) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q214:45 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LV 4. 81-D.Young to LV 31 for 27 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 28-S.Franklin). Play 913 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LV 4. 81-D.Young to LV 31 for 27 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 28-S.Franklin).
Q214:38 (14:38) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 36 for 5 yards (24-C.Bishop; 8-T.Bernard). Play 943 (14:38) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 36 for 5 yards (24-C.Bishop; 8-T.Bernard).
Q213:58 (13:58) 4-M.Washington up the middle to LV 37 for 1 yard (96-D.Walker). Play 968 (13:58) 4-M.Washington up the middle to LV 37 for 1 yard (96-D.Walker).
Q213:19 (13:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 9-J.Nailor (21-D.Igbinosun) [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 990 (13:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 9-J.Nailor (21-D.Igbinosun) [15-G.Rousseau].
Q213:15 (13:15) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 15 for 4 yards (25-D.Luter; 20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 1013 (13:15) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 15 for 4 yards (25-D.Luter; 20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q213:01 (13:01) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 21 for 6 yards (99-T.Booker). Play 1039 (13:01) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 21 for 6 yards (99-T.Booker).
Q212:22 (12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook to BUF 30 for 9 yards (92-J.Pegues). Play 1068 (12:22) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook to BUF 30 for 9 yards (92-J.Pegues).
Q211:38 (11:38) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 39 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 1093 (11:38) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 39 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q210:59 (10:59) 7-R.Davis left guard to BUF 43 for 4 yards (95-K.Paye; 17-N.Dean). Play 1115 (10:59) 7-R.Davis left guard to BUF 43 for 4 yards (95-K.Paye; 17-N.Dean).
Q210:22 (10:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 7-R.Davis to BUF 48 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean; 3-T.Johnson). Play 1137 (10:22) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 7-R.Davis to BUF 48 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean; 3-T.Johnson).
Q209:44 (9:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to LV 31 for 21 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 1162 (9:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to LV 31 for 21 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q209:00 (9:00) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 30 for 1 yard (35-H.Masses; 51-M.Koonce). PENALTY on BUF-13-S.Bell, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play. Play 1187 (9:00) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 30 for 1 yard (35-H.Masses; 51-M.Koonce). PENALTY on BUF-13-S.Bell, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play.
Q208:31 (8:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at LV 13 for 23 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 1225 (8:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at LV 13 for 23 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q207:55 (7:55) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 9 for 4 yards (35-H.Masses; 3-T.Johnson). Play 1255 (7:55) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 9 for 4 yards (35-H.Masses; 3-T.Johnson).
Q207:17 (7:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1277 (7:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q207:13 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 1303 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q207:13 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LV 4. 81-D.Young to LV 26 for 22 yards (83-K.Latu). Play 1318 16-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to LV 4. 81-D.Young to LV 26 for 22 yards (83-K.Latu).
Q207:07 (7:07) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington right guard to LV 28 for 2 yards (23-D.Alford; 96-D.Walker). Play 1348 (7:07) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington right guard to LV 28 for 2 yards (23-D.Alford; 96-D.Walker).
Q206:29 (6:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Mayer (24-C.Bishop). Play 1370 (6:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Mayer (24-C.Bishop).
Q206:25 (6:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 37 for 9 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 1393 (6:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to LV 37 for 9 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q205:46 (5:46) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to BUF 48 for 15 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 1418 (5:46) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty to BUF 48 for 15 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q205:02 (5:02) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 36 for 12 yards (99-T.Parker; 24-C.Bishop). Play 1443 (5:02) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 36 for 12 yards (99-T.Parker; 24-C.Bishop).
Q204:26 (4:26) 4-M.Washington left tackle pushed ob at BUF 22 for 14 yards (3-D.Hamlin). ** Injury Update: BUF-9-B.Chubb has returned to the game. Play 1468 (4:26) 4-M.Washington left tackle pushed ob at BUF 22 for 14 yards (3-D.Hamlin). ** Injury Update: BUF-9-B.Chubb has returned to the game.
Q203:54 (3:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 82-C.White (24-C.Bishop). Play 1495 (3:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 82-C.White (24-C.Bishop).
Q203:49 (3:49) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to BUF 16 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1521 (3:49) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to BUF 16 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q203:07 (3:07) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to BUF 13 for 3 yards (24-C.Bishop; 8-T.Bernard). Play 1543 (3:07) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to BUF 13 for 3 yards (24-C.Bishop; 8-T.Bernard).
Q202:23 (2:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 13 - No Play. Play 1565 (2:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 13 - No Play.
Q202:18 (2:18) 14-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 1611 (2:18) 14-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q202:14 14-M.Gay kicks 62 yards from LV 35 to BUF 3. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 30 for 27 yards (25-D.Luter; 44-T.Eichenberg). Play 1631 14-M.Gay kicks 62 yards from LV 35 to BUF 3. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 30 for 27 yards (25-D.Luter; 44-T.Eichenberg).
Q202:09 (2:09) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 31 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). Play 1661 (2:09) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 31 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Palmer. Play 1683 (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Palmer.
Q201:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 23 for -8 yards (95-K.Paye). Play 1713 (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 23 for -8 yards (95-K.Paye).
Q201:48 Timeout #2 by LV at 01:48. Play 1745 Timeout #2 by LV at 01:48.
Q201:48 (1:48) 39-T.Doman punts 44 yards to LV 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. Play 1733 (1:48) 39-T.Doman punts 44 yards to LV 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
Q201:40 (1:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 36 for 3 yards (97-G.Gaines; 21-D.Igbinosun). Play 1760 (1:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 36 for 3 yards (97-G.Gaines; 21-D.Igbinosun).
Q201:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 47 for 11 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1789 (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to LV 47 for 11 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q200:50 (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer pushed ob at BUF 40 for 13 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 1814 (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer pushed ob at BUF 40 for 13 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q200:41 (:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty (15-G.Rousseau). Play 1844 (:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty (15-G.Rousseau).
Q200:37 (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 33 for 7 yards (24-C.Bishop). Play 1867 (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 33 for 7 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q200:19 (:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 33 - No Play. PENALTY on BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Disqualification, 14 yards, enforced between downs. Play 1892 (:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 33 - No Play. PENALTY on BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Disqualification, 14 yards, enforced between downs.
Q200:15 (:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to BUF 9 for 5 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr). Play 1937 (:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to BUF 9 for 5 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr).
Q200:09 Timeout #3 by LV at 00:09. Play 1974 Timeout #3 by LV at 00:09.
Q200:09 Timeout #3 by BUF at 00:09. Play 1981 Timeout #3 by BUF at 00:09.
Q200:09 (:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left. Play 1962 (:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left.
Q200:04 (:04) 14-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 1999 (:04) 14-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2019 Q315:00 16-T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to LV 5. 81-D.Young to LV 30 for 25 yards (56-J.Solomon). Play 2037 16-T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to LV 5. 81-D.Young to LV 30 for 25 yards (56-J.Solomon).
Q314:53 (14:53) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Bowers [96-D.Walker]. Play 2060 (14:53) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Bowers [96-D.Walker].
Q314:47 (14:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [99-T.Parker]. Play 2083 (14:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [99-T.Parker].
Q314:43 (14:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 9-J.Nailor (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 2106 (14:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 9-J.Nailor (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q314:38 (14:38) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 35 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). Play 2129 (14:38) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 35 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).
Q314:25 (14:25) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 48 for 13 yards (31-T.Stukes; 5-E.Stokes). Play 2155 (14:25) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 48 for 13 yards (31-T.Stukes; 5-E.Stokes).
Q313:46 (13:46) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (95-K.Paye; 7-Q.Walker). Play 2184 (13:46) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (95-K.Paye; 7-Q.Walker).
Q313:08 (13:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to LV 39 for 11 yards (31-T.Stukes). Play 2206 (13:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to LV 39 for 11 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Q312:31 (12:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to LV 37 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 2231 (12:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to LV 37 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q311:47 (11:47) 4-J.Cook left end to LV 26 for 11 yards (99-T.Booker). Play 2253 (11:47) 4-J.Cook left end to LV 26 for 11 yards (99-T.Booker).
Q311:08 (11:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle. Play 2275 (11:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle.
Q311:03 (11:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 19 for 7 yards (26-D.Porter). Play 2298 (11:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 19 for 7 yards (26-D.Porter).
Q310:42 (10:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 18 for 1 yard (31-T.Stukes). Play 2323 (10:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid to LV 18 for 1 yard (31-T.Stukes).
Q309:57 (9:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 18 - No Play. Play 2348 (9:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 18 - No Play.
Q309:50 (9:50) 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 2385 (9:50) 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q309:45 16-T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to LV 5. 81-D.Young to LV 31 for 26 yards (99-T.Parker; 28-S.Franklin). Play 2405 16-T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to LV 5. 81-D.Young to LV 31 for 26 yards (99-T.Parker; 28-S.Franklin).
Q309:37 (9:37) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 29 for -2 yards (56-J.Solomon, 99-T.Parker). Play 2435 (9:37) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 29 for -2 yards (56-J.Solomon, 99-T.Parker).
Q309:00 (9:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Williams at LV 32. 42-D.Williams to LV 32 for no gain (87-M.Mayer). Play 2457 (9:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Williams at LV 32. 42-D.Williams to LV 32 for no gain (87-M.Mayer).
Q308:54 (8:54) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LV 31 for 1 yard (94-F.Fatukasi; 17-N.Dean). Play 2484 (8:54) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LV 31 for 1 yard (94-F.Fatukasi; 17-N.Dean).
Q308:17 (8:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 13-S.Bell. Play 2513 (8:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 13-S.Bell.
Q308:11 (8:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-T.Stukes). PENALTY on LV-31-T.Stukes, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play. Play 2536 (8:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-T.Stukes). PENALTY on LV-31-T.Stukes, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play.
Q308:04 (8:04) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LV 27 for -1 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 2582 (8:04) 4-J.Cook right tackle to LV 27 for -1 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q307:25 (7:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LV 27 - No Play. Play 2604 (7:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LV 27 - No Play.
Q307:18 (7:18) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LV 12 for 2 yards (7-Q.Walker; 69-A.Butler). Play 2638 (7:18) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LV 12 for 2 yards (7-Q.Walker; 69-A.Butler).
Q306:38 (6:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir. Play 2660 (6:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir.
Q306:30 (6:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Play 2683 (6:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby].
Q306:22 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 2713 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q306:22 16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to LV 0. 81-D.Young to LV 26 for 26 yards (85-J.Hawes; 28-S.Franklin). Play 2728 16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to LV 0. 81-D.Young to LV 26 for 26 yards (85-J.Hawes; 28-S.Franklin).
Q306:15 (6:15) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 9-J.Nailor [15-G.Rousseau]. PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 26 - No Play. Play 2758 (6:15) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 9-J.Nailor [15-G.Rousseau]. PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 26 - No Play.
Q306:11 (6:11) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LV 30 for -1 yards (96-D.Walker). Play 2792 (6:11) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LV 30 for -1 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q305:31 (5:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to LV 45 for 15 yards (90-D.Carter). Play 2814 (5:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to LV 45 for 15 yards (90-D.Carter).
Q304:49 (4:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 47 for 8 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 2839 (4:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 47 for 8 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q304:10 (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 39 for 8 yards (23-D.Alford). PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 47 - No Play. Play 2876 (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 39 for 8 yards (23-D.Alford). PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 47 - No Play.
Q303:40 (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 23-D.Laube to LV 42 for -1 yards (1-M.Hairston, 42-D.Williams) [15-G.Rousseau]. Play 2912 (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 23-D.Laube to LV 42 for -1 yards (1-M.Hairston, 42-D.Williams) [15-G.Rousseau].
Q302:56 (2:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 30 for 28 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr). Play 2937 (2:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 87-M.Mayer to BUF 30 for 28 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr).
Q302:14 (2:14) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to BUF 26 for 4 yards (8-T.Bernard; 94-L.Jackson). Play 2967 (2:14) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to BUF 26 for 4 yards (8-T.Bernard; 94-L.Jackson).
Q301:33 (1:33) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube left guard to BUF 26 for no gain (8-T.Bernard). Play 2989 (1:33) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube left guard to BUF 26 for no gain (8-T.Bernard).
Q300:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 9-J.Nailor to BUF 17 for 9 yards (23-D.Alford). Play 3011 (:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 9-J.Nailor to BUF 17 for 9 yards (23-D.Alford).
Q300:12 (:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty. Play 3036 (:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 2-A.Jeanty.
Q300:08 (:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 1-T.Tucker. Las Vegas challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 3059 (:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 1-T.Tucker. Las Vegas challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q300:03 (:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 2 for 15 yards (47-C.Benford). Play 3082 (:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 2 for 15 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3152 Q415:00 (15:00) 4-M.Washington up the middle to BUF 1 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter; 96-D.Walker). Play 3172 (15:00) 4-M.Washington up the middle to BUF 1 for 1 yard (90-D.Carter; 96-D.Walker).
Q414:21 (14:21) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to BUF 4 for -3 yards (97-G.Gaines). Play 3194 (14:21) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to BUF 4 for -3 yards (97-G.Gaines).
Q413:40 (13:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 82-C.White (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 3218 (13:40) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 82-C.White (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q413:35 (13:35) 14-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 3241 (13:35) 14-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q413:32 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to BUF 4. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 24 for 20 yards (81-D.Young). Play 3261 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to BUF 4. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 24 for 20 yards (81-D.Young).
Q413:27 (13:27) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 40 for 16 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 3291 (13:27) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 40 for 16 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q412:55 (12:55) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir. Play 3321 (12:55) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir.
Q412:51 (12:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox to BUF 40 for no gain (11-J.Chinn). Play 3344 (12:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox to BUF 40 for no gain (11-J.Chinn).
Q412:09 (12:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 0-K.Coleman [35-H.Masses]. Play 3369 (12:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 0-K.Coleman [35-H.Masses].
Q412:03 (12:03) 39-T.Doman punts 51 yards to LV 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. Play 3392 (12:03) 39-T.Doman punts 51 yards to LV 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
Q411:56 (11:56) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (47-C.Benford). Play 3430 (11:56) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (47-C.Benford).
Q411:51 (11:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to LV 20 for 11 yards (21-D.Igbinosun). Play 3460 (11:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to LV 20 for 11 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q411:16 (11:16) 4-M.Washington right guard to LV 22 for 2 yards (8-T.Bernard). Play 3485 (11:16) 4-M.Washington right guard to LV 22 for 2 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q410:41 (10:41) 4-M.Washington up the middle to LV 40 for 18 yards (3-D.Hamlin). Play 3507 (10:41) 4-M.Washington up the middle to LV 40 for 18 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Q410:16 (10:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 42 for 18 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 42-D.Williams). Play 3529 (10:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 42 for 18 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 42-D.Williams).
Q409:33 (9:33) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at BUF 13 for 29 yards (3-D.Hamlin). Play 3554 (9:33) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at BUF 13 for 29 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Q408:53 (8:53) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (47-C.Benford). Play 3584 (8:53) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (47-C.Benford).
Q408:49 (8:49) 4-M.Washington up the middle to BUF 11 for 2 yards (98-T.Sanders). Play 3607 (8:49) 4-M.Washington up the middle to BUF 11 for 2 yards (98-T.Sanders).
Q408:13 (8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3629 (8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q408:07 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 3655 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q408:07 14-M.Gay kicks 55 yards from LV 35 to BUF 10. 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 24 yards (55-C.Lindenberg; 44-T.Eichenberg). Play 3670 14-M.Gay kicks 55 yards from LV 35 to BUF 10. 7-R.Davis to BUF 34 for 24 yards (55-C.Lindenberg; 44-T.Eichenberg).
Q408:01 (8:01) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 45 for 11 yards (31-T.Stukes; 7-Q.Walker). ** Injury Update: BUF-86-D.Kincaid has returned to the game. Play 3700 (8:01) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 45 for 11 yards (31-T.Stukes; 7-Q.Walker). ** Injury Update: BUF-86-D.Kincaid has returned to the game.
Q407:22 (7:22) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean; 96-J.Laulu). Play 3725 (7:22) 4-J.Cook up the middle to 50 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean; 96-J.Laulu).
Q406:48 (6:48) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at LV 36 for 14 yards (31-T.Stukes). Play 3747 (6:48) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at LV 36 for 14 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Q406:16 (6:16) 4-J.Cook right guard to LV 35 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean; 98-M.Crosby). Play 3777 (6:16) 4-J.Cook right guard to LV 35 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean; 98-M.Crosby).
Q405:37 (5:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to LV 29 for 6 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 3799 (5:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to LV 29 for 6 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q404:56 (4:56) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at LV 3 for 26 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 3824 (4:56) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at LV 3 for 26 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q404:49 (4:49) 63-A.Corbett reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3854 (4:49) 63-A.Corbett reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q404:43 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 3879 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q404:43 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LV 3. 23-D.Laube to LV 28 for 25 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 28. Play 3894 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LV 3. 23-D.Laube to LV 28 for 25 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 28.
Q404:36 (4:36) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (15-G.Rousseau) [98-T.Sanders]. Play 3928 (4:36) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (15-G.Rousseau) [98-T.Sanders].
Q404:31 (4:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Bowers (23-D.Alford). Play 3953 (4:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Bowers (23-D.Alford).
Q404:26 (4:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker [29-J.Kilgore]. Play 3976 (4:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker [29-J.Kilgore].
Q404:21 (4:21) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 36 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36. Play 3999 (4:21) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 36 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36.
Q404:08 (4:08) 4-J.Cook left tackle to 50 for -1 yards (98-M.Crosby). Play 4036 (4:08) 4-J.Cook left tackle to 50 for -1 yards (98-M.Crosby).
Q403:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to LV 35 for 15 yards (26-D.Porter). Play 4058 (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman to LV 35 for 15 yards (26-D.Porter).
Q402:45 (2:45) 4-J.Cook right guard ran ob at LV 27 for 8 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-T.Stukes). Play 4083 (2:45) 4-J.Cook right guard ran ob at LV 27 for 8 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-T.Stukes).
Q402:40 (2:40) 4-J.Cook right guard to LV 24 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 4110 (2:40) 4-J.Cook right guard to LV 24 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q402:36 Timeout #2 by LV at 02:36. Play 4144 Timeout #2 by LV at 02:36.
Q402:36 (2:36) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 23 for 1 yard (31-T.Stukes). Play 4132 (2:36) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 23 for 1 yard (31-T.Stukes).
Q402:32 Timeout #3 by LV at 02:32. Play 4173 Timeout #3 by LV at 02:32.
Q402:32 (2:32) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman (26-D.Porter) [11-J.Chinn]. Play 4161 (2:32) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman (26-D.Porter) [11-J.Chinn].
Q402:27 (2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir to LV 20 for 3 yards (31-T.Stukes). Play 4191 (2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir to LV 20 for 3 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Q402:00 (2:00) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. Play 4216 (2:00) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q401:56 16-T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to LV 5. 23-D.Laube to LV 34 for 29 yards (55-M.Hoecht). Play 4243 16-T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to LV 5. 23-D.Laube to LV 34 for 29 yards (55-M.Hoecht).
Q401:50 (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 9-J.Nailor. Play 4266 (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 9-J.Nailor.
Q401:44 (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker (23-D.Alford). PENALTY on BUF-23-D.Alford, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at LV 34 - No Play. Play 4289 (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker (23-D.Alford). PENALTY on BUF-23-D.Alford, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at LV 34 - No Play.
Q401:39 (1:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4324 (1:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q401:32 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 4350 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q401:32 14-M.Gay kicks onside 20 yards from LV 35 to BUF 45. 10-K.Shakir (didn't try to advance) to BUF 45 for no gain. Play 4365 14-M.Gay kicks onside 20 yards from LV 35 to BUF 45. 10-K.Shakir (didn't try to advance) to BUF 45 for no gain.
Q401:31 (1:31) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 44 for -1 yards. Play 4388 (1:31) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 44 for -1 yards.
Q400:55 (:55) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 43 for -1 yards. Play 4410 (:55) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 43 for -1 yards.
Q400:38 (:38) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 42 for -1 yards. Play 4432 (:38) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 42 for -1 yards.
Down
4
Game seconds remaining 1384
Half seconds remaining 1384
Quarter seconds remaining 484
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV -2.85 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1384
Half seconds remaining 1384
Quarter seconds remaining 484
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 9
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 31
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1384
Half seconds remaining 1384
Quarter seconds remaining 484
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q307:25 Penalty · BUF (7:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on LV-35-H.Masses, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LV 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV -8.59 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1338
Half seconds remaining 1338
Quarter seconds remaining 438
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 11
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1338
Half seconds remaining 1338
Quarter seconds remaining 438
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV -2.22 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1338
Half seconds remaining 1338
Quarter seconds remaining 438
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 11
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1338
Half seconds remaining 1338
Quarter seconds remaining 438
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q104:37 Penalty · LV (4:37) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers. PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at BUF 12 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV 5.04 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2972
Half seconds remaining 1172
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 12
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2972
Half seconds remaining 1172
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV 1.42 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2972
Half seconds remaining 1172
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 12
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 2972
Half seconds remaining 1172
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q306:15 Penalty · LV (6:15) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 9-J.Nailor [15-G.Rousseau]. PENALTY on BUF-1-M.Hairston, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 26 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV 3.54 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1271
Half seconds remaining 1271
Quarter seconds remaining 371
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1271
Half seconds remaining 1271
Quarter seconds remaining 371
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV 0.91 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1271
Half seconds remaining 1271
Quarter seconds remaining 371
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 74
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 1271
Half seconds remaining 1271
Quarter seconds remaining 371
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q106:18 Penalty · LV (6:18) PENALTY on LV-34-C.Heyward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV -3.32 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 8
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 28
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3078
Half seconds remaining 1278
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 3
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 23
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3078
Half seconds remaining 1278
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV -0.66 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 8
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 28
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3078
Half seconds remaining 1278
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 3
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 23
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3078
Half seconds remaining 1278
Quarter seconds remaining 378
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q202:23 Penalty · LV (2:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV -2.78 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 5
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1943
Half seconds remaining 143
Quarter seconds remaining 143
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1943
Half seconds remaining 143
Quarter seconds remaining 143
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV -0.71 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 5
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 17
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1943
Half seconds remaining 143
Quarter seconds remaining 143
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 1
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -6
Game seconds remaining 1943
Half seconds remaining 143
Quarter seconds remaining 143
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:35 Kick · LV (13:35) 14-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 1.85 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.2491509472822355
Yardline 100 4
Elapsed share 0.7736111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 815
Half seconds remaining 815
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 815
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1134025737473672 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11340/0.09486/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV 0.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Penalty · BUF (15:00) PENALTY on BUF-85-J.Hawes, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 5 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV 1.17 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 10
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 5
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence LV 0.72 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 10
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 5
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -4
Game seconds remaining 2700
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q213:15 Fourth down · LV (13:15) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 15 for 4 yards (25-D.Luter; 20-I.Pola-Mao). + Fourth down decision cost LV 0.01 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -1.800530647408502
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.2791666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 1
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2595
Half seconds remaining 795
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 795
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3403985528248162 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.34040/ NA/0.34032 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:48 Kick · BUF (14:48) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -1.99653815624267
Yardline 100 10
Elapsed share 0.2533333333333334
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2688
Half seconds remaining 888
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 888
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.6098204476002858 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.60767/0.60982/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 1.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q201:48 Fourth down · BUF (1:48) 39-T.Doman punts 44 yards to LV 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.8392455816628615
Yardline 100 77
Elapsed share 0.47
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1908
Half seconds remaining 108
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 1
Quarter seconds remaining 108
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7296997999890499 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68393/ NA/0.72970 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:38 Fourth down · LV (14:38) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 35 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg). + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.7263695641064789
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.5061111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1778
Half seconds remaining 1778
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 878
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3115889757628214 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28628/ NA/0.31159 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 19 recorded events Q309:50 Kick · BUF (9:50) 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.5274525595355561
Yardline 100 28
Elapsed share 0.5861111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1490
Half seconds remaining 1490
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 590
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.6871046227322432 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65378/0.68710/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 1.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q412:03 Fourth down · BUF (12:03) 39-T.Doman punts 51 yards to LV 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.2249406758507951
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.7991666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q402:00 Kick · BUF (2:00) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.115104073325954
Yardline 100 20
Elapsed share 0.9666666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q110:16 Kick · BUF (10:16) 16-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Fourth down decision cost BUF 1.21 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam BUF
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -4.011609517335535
Yardline 100 26
Elapsed share 0.07888888888888888
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 29.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 5.5
Original posteam BUF
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q104:27 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q209:00 Penalty · BUF (9:00) 4-J.Cook left tackle to LV 30 for 1 yard (35-H.Masses; 51-M.Koonce). PENALTY on BUF-13-S.Bell, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:13 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q202:18 Kick · LV (2:18) 14-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0.51 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team BUF
Home team LV
Away total 29.5
Home total 24
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -5.5
Spread time -0.8676919059190894
Yardline 100 17
Elapsed share 0.4616666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -5.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q200:19 Penalty · LV (:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 33 - No Play. PENALTY on BUF-22-C.Gardner-Johnson, Disqualification, 14 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:04 Kick · LV (:04) 14-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Field goal points above expectation LV 0.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q309:57 Penalty · BUF (9:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost BUF Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:22 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q304:10 Penalty · LV (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers to BUF 39 for 8 yards (23-D.Alford). PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:07 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q404:43 Kick · BUF 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. + Extra point points above expectation BUF 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q404:43 Penalty · LV 16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to LV 3. 23-D.Laube to LV 28 for 25 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 28. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:21 Penalty · LV (4:21) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 36 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:44 Penalty · LV (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker (23-D.Alford). PENALTY on BUF-23-D.Alford, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at LV 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:32 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
nflverse-raw-pbp Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 12:06 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 80a615b2baaac034644ac83a3030d9213a18777401c751cc961471e24736da57
nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 12:10 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 2cb0947e136e7299034027ba9e85666e342f38d69709f605f7b02e8e2498de42Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: b26021d0f62733da6edc12c4a7a7f567105f970134ab6680a691aeab985afa9c
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 2 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 1:57 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 19, 2026, 12:10 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 723
Half seconds remaining 723
Quarter seconds remaining 723
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8723809261589607 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85307/ NA/0.87238 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 120
Half seconds remaining 120
Quarter seconds remaining 120
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9802406537339642 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97188/0.98024/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 1.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 3316
Half seconds remaining 1516
Quarter seconds remaining 616
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.706932275101974 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70693/0.69480/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation BUF 1.15 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
-6
Game seconds remaining 1938
Half seconds remaining 138
Quarter seconds remaining 138
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2048060073397086 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20481/0.19972/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV 0.2 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled