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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Carolina Panthers by 3
Final margin Carolina Panthers by 11
Difference 8 points
Carolina Panthers covered the spread.
3,834 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (52.7%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin CAR by 11
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: John Hussey Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 92.5 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Philadelphia Eagles · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Carolina Panthers · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Philadelphia Eagles chance to win during the game 165 preplay estimates across 187 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 22 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 2 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 08:46 Recorded game event
Carolina Panthers · Play 1737 (8:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right [53-Z.Baun]. PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on PHI awarded CAR a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 14:19 Recorded game event
Carolina Panthers · Play 3640 (14:19) (Run formation) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. PENALTY on PHI-97-M.Ojomo, Encroachment, 2 yards, enforced at PHI 3 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on PHI awarded CAR a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 2.5 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 187 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 187 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 55 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 10. 80-D.Cooper to PHI 26 for 16 yards (87-B.Tremayne). Play 40 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 55 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 10. 80-D.Cooper to PHI 26 for 16 yards (87-B.Tremayne).
Q114:55 (14:55) 16-T.McKee sacked at PHI 15 for -11 yards (58-B.Okereke). Play 63 (14:55) 16-T.McKee sacked at PHI 15 for -11 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q114:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon. Play 83 (14:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon.
Q114:13 (14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 39-D.Pierce to PHI 26 for 11 yards (7-T.Moehrig) [95-D.Brown]. CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 50 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q208:46 Penalty · CAR (8:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right [53-Z.Baun]. PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -7.14 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2319
Half seconds remaining 519
Quarter seconds remaining 519
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bnflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 16, 2026, 4:40 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1299b41dc9943e63cb87331f826297130577fcac5528451b01e4aa3f58765ce6ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot Team penalties per game 5.5 / 53.5 yd 6 / 52.5 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.4 / 47.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.6 / 45.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by John Hussey; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 165 model estimates across 187 recorded game entries.
22 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (187 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -2.33 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -0.77 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 6.8 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 2.7 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -7.14 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -2.63 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -2.56 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -0.76 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 6.63 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 2.51 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -1.38 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -0.84 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 2.1 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 0.97 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 0.54 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 0.4 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence -2.54 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence -2.47 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
CAR Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Observed ruling consequence 0.05 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PHI Ruling expected points consequence 1.31 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29858/ NA/0.33553 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 3.02 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65463/0.62446/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64086/ NA/0.67303 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29844/0.29081/0.30143 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 1.91 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70803/ NA/0.68894 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71194/0.69807/0.71980 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.23036/ NA/0.23437 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70193/0.73078/0.70229 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16215/ NA/0.17815 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.78943/ NA/0.79939 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14323/ NA/0.17026 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85314/0.83290/0.81393 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
CAR Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68757/ NA/0.72030 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13569/ NA/0.16733 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PHI Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01736/0.01512/0.01683 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
PHI Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
CAR Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
PHI Field goal points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
CAR Field goal points above expectation 1.34 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
PHI Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
CAR Extra point points above expectation -0.52 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 85th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
PHI Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 187 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
CAR Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 187 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
PHI Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.73 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.96 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
67 of 67 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 67 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.5 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PHI Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.51 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
45 of 45 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 45 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CAR Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.31 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
82 of 82 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 82 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CAR Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.63 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
82 of 82 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 82 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CAR Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 51 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
CAR Pass interference called penalties above expectation 1.35 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
51 of 51 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 51 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Play 106
(14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 39-D.Pierce to PHI 26 for 11 yards (7-T.Moehrig) [95-D.Brown].
Q113:41 (13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to CAR 15, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 39 for 24 yards (42-S.Mondon). Play 131 (13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to CAR 15, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 39 for 24 yards (42-S.Mondon).
Q113:28 (13:28) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to 50 for 11 yards (53-Z.Baun; 24-A.Mukuba). Play 157 (13:28) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to 50 for 11 yards (53-Z.Baun; 24-A.Mukuba).
Q112:57 (12:57) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 35 for 15 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 11-J.Campbell). Play 179 (12:57) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 35 for 15 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 11-J.Campbell).
Q112:23 (12:23) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 4-T.McMillan (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 204 (12:23) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 4-T.McMillan (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q112:20 (12:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 29 for 6 yards (11-J.Campbell; 23-K.Moore). Play 227 (12:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 29 for 6 yards (11-J.Campbell; 23-K.Moore).
Q111:37 (11:37) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 29 for no gain (3-N.Smith; 98-J.Carter). Play 252 (11:37) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 29 for no gain (3-N.Smith; 98-J.Carter).
Q110:56 (10:56) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 274 (10:56) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q110:50 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 8. 85-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 19. 85-B.Covey to PHI 22 for 3 yards (27-I.Simmons). Play 294 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 8. 85-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 19. 85-B.Covey to PHI 22 for 3 yards (27-I.Simmons).
Q110:45 (10:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 19-E.Moore [92-L.Hunter]. Play 337 (10:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 19-E.Moore [92-L.Hunter].
Q110:40 (10:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 39-D.Pierce to PHI 19 for -3 yards (58-B.Okereke). Play 360 (10:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 39-D.Pierce to PHI 19 for -3 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q109:57 (9:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon. The pass completion was assisted by replay. Play 385 (9:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon. The pass completion was assisted by replay.
Q109:53 (9:53) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (34-C.Steele). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 26. Play 422 (9:53) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (34-C.Steele). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 26.
Q109:42 (9:42) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 20 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 3-N.Smith). Play 453 (9:42) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 20 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 3-N.Smith).
Q109:02 (9:02) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at CAR 41 for 21 yards. Penalty on PHI-24-A.Mukuba, Illegal Contact, declined. Play 494 (9:02) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at CAR 41 for 21 yards. Penalty on PHI-24-A.Mukuba, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q108:40 (8:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 33 for -8 yards (3-N.Smith). Play 540 (8:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 33 for -8 yards (3-N.Smith).
Q107:58 (7:58) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 39 for 6 yards (24-A.Mukuba). Play 560 (7:58) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 39 for 6 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
Q107:12 (7:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 88-D.Waller (2-T.Woolen) [97-M.Ojomo]. Play 585 (7:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 88-D.Waller (2-T.Woolen) [97-M.Ojomo].
Q107:05 (7:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. Play 608 (7:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
Q106:57 (6:57) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 11 - No Play. Play 633 (6:57) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 11 - No Play.
Q106:57 (6:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Smith (24-W.Lee). PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 23 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play. Play 664 (6:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Smith (24-W.Lee). PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 23 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play.
Q106:52 (6:52) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 34-C.Steele [52-T.Gipson]. Play 698 (6:52) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 34-C.Steele [52-T.Gipson].
Q106:46 (6:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 34-C.Steele pushed ob at PHI 33 for 4 yards (58-B.Okereke). PHI-34-C.Steele was injured during the play. Play 721 (6:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 34-C.Steele pushed ob at PHI 33 for 4 yards (58-B.Okereke). PHI-34-C.Steele was injured during the play.
Q106:23 (6:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at PHI 40 for 7 yards (7-T.Moehrig) [5-J.Phillips]. Play 754 (6:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at PHI 40 for 7 yards (7-T.Moehrig) [5-J.Phillips].
Q106:02 (6:02) (No Huddle) 39-D.Pierce right end to PHI 49 for 9 yards (21-N.Scott). CAR-5-J.Phillips was injured during the play. Play 784 (6:02) (No Huddle) 39-D.Pierce right end to PHI 49 for 9 yards (21-N.Scott). CAR-5-J.Phillips was injured during the play.
Q105:29 (5:29) 39-D.Pierce right tackle to CAR 42 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke). Play 806 (5:29) 39-D.Pierce right tackle to CAR 42 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q104:51 (4:51) 39-D.Pierce right end to CAR 42 for no gain (24-W.Lee). Play 831 (4:51) 39-D.Pierce right end to CAR 42 for no gain (24-W.Lee).
Q104:07 (4:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 39-D.Pierce. Play 853 (4:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 39-D.Pierce.
Q104:03 (4:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 6-D.Smith (58-B.Okereke). Play 876 (4:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 6-D.Smith (58-B.Okereke).
Q104:00 (4:00) (Punt formation) Penalty on PHI, Delay of Game, declined. Play 899 (4:00) (Punt formation) Penalty on PHI, Delay of Game, declined.
Q104:00 (4:00) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 83-D.Moore. Play 927 (4:00) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
Q103:53 (3:53) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 33 for 19 yards (23-K.Moore). Play 947 (3:53) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 33 for 19 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q103:17 (3:17) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 36 for 3 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 27-Q.Mitchell). Play 984 (3:17) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 36 for 3 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 27-Q.Mitchell).
Q102:43 (2:43) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 37 for 1 yard (17-A.Ebiketie; 90-J.Davis). Play 1006 (2:43) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 37 for 1 yard (17-A.Ebiketie; 90-J.Davis).
Q102:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Coker (98-J.Carter). Play 1028 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Coker (98-J.Carter).
Q101:56 (1:56) 6-S.Martin punts 22 yards to PHI 41, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-50-K.James-Newby, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 37 - No Play. Play 1051 (1:56) 6-S.Martin punts 22 yards to PHI 41, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-50-K.James-Newby, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 37 - No Play.
Q101:48 (1:48) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. Play 1081 (1:48) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
Q101:39 (1:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 29 for 9 yards (3-P.Umanmielen). Play 1099 (1:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PHI 29 for 9 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).
Q101:06 (1:06) 39-D.Pierce right guard to PHI 26 for -3 yards (7-T.Moehrig). Play 1136 (1:06) 39-D.Pierce right guard to PHI 26 for -3 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
Q100:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 31 for 5 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 1163 (:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 31 for 5 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1188 Q215:00 (15:00) 16-T.McKee pass deep middle to 80-D.Cooper to CAR 49 for 20 yards (29-A.Evans) [55-D.Lloyd]. PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 31 - No Play. Play 1208 (15:00) 16-T.McKee pass deep middle to 80-D.Cooper to CAR 49 for 20 yards (29-A.Evans) [55-D.Lloyd]. PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 31 - No Play.
Q214:34 (14:34) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce right end to PHI 20 for -1 yards (58-B.Okereke, 20-Z.Wheatley). Play 1260 (14:34) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce right end to PHI 20 for -1 yards (58-B.Okereke, 20-Z.Wheatley).
Q213:48 (13:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 29 for 9 yards (21-N.Scott). Play 1289 (13:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 29 for 9 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q213:03 (13:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks [55-D.Lloyd]. Play 1314 (13:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks [55-D.Lloyd].
Q212:57 (12:57) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to CAR 18, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 42 for 24 yards (54-J.Trotter). CAR-48-T.Incoom was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: PHI-34-C.Steele has returned to the game. PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 38. Play 1337 (12:57) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to CAR 18, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 42 for 24 yards (54-J.Trotter). CAR-48-T.Incoom was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: PHI-34-C.Steele has returned to the game. PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 38.
Q212:45 (12:45) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker ran ob at CAR 42 for 19 yards (33-C.DeJean). PHI-3-N.Smith was injured during the play. Play 1385 (12:45) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker ran ob at CAR 42 for 19 yards (33-C.DeJean). PHI-3-N.Smith was injured during the play.
Q212:20 (12:20) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at PHI 45 for 13 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 1425 (12:20) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at PHI 45 for 13 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q211:46 (11:46) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 40 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 1462 (11:46) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 40 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q211:13 (11:13) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 84-M.Evans to PHI 17 for 23 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. Play 1484 (11:13) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 84-M.Evans to PHI 17 for 23 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Q210:42 (10:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Metchie. Play 1520 (10:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Metchie.
Q210:37 (10:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Waller. Play 1543 (10:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Waller.
Q210:34 (10:34) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to PHI 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. Play 1566 (10:34) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to PHI 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
Q210:27 (10:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 12 for 4 yards (24-W.Lee). Play 1586 (10:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 12 for 4 yards (24-W.Lee).
Q209:51 (9:51) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (21-N.Scott). Play 1611 (9:51) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (21-N.Scott).
Q209:46 (9:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith [95-D.Brown]. Penalty on PHI-72-M.Bell, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 1639 (9:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith [95-D.Brown]. Penalty on PHI-72-M.Bell, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q209:42 (9:42) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to PHI 35, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. Play 1673 (9:42) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to PHI 35, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
Q209:32 (9:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 30-C.Hubbard (90-J.Davis). Play 1692 (9:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 30-C.Hubbard (90-J.Davis).
Q209:28 (9:28) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 35 for no gain (33-C.DeJean). Play 1715 (9:28) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 35 for no gain (33-C.DeJean).
Q208:46 (8:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right [53-Z.Baun]. PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. Play 1737 (8:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right [53-Z.Baun]. PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play.
Q208:39 (8:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on CAR-9-B.Young, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30. Play 1771 (8:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on CAR-9-B.Young, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.
Q208:33 (8:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 24 for 16 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell). PENALTY on PHI-90-J.Davis, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 24. Play 1794 (8:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 24 for 16 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell). PENALTY on PHI-90-J.Davis, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 24.
Q208:14 (8:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1849 (8:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q208:08 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 1875 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q208:08 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 58 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 7. 85-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 14. 85-B.Covey to PHI 22 for 8 yards (22-L.Ransom; 27-I.Simmons). Play 1890 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 58 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 7. 85-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 14. 85-B.Covey to PHI 22 for 8 yards (22-L.Ransom; 27-I.Simmons).
Q208:03 (8:03) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to PHI 26 for 4 yards (58-B.Okereke). Play 1933 (8:03) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to PHI 26 for 4 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q207:18 (7:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 41 for 15 yards (21-N.Scott). Play 1955 (7:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 41 for 15 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q206:51 (6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith to PHI 47 for 6 yards (21-N.Scott). Play 1980 (6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith to PHI 47 for 6 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q206:11 (6:11) PENALTY on PHI-88-D.Goedert, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 47 - No Play. Play 2005 (6:11) PENALTY on PHI-88-D.Goedert, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 47 - No Play.
Q205:53 (5:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 44 for 2 yards (24-W.Lee). Play 2029 (5:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 9-M.Lemon to PHI 44 for 2 yards (24-W.Lee).
Q205:14 (5:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to CAR 40 for 16 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). Play 2054 (5:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to CAR 40 for 16 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).
Q204:37 (4:37) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right. Play 2079 (4:37) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right.
Q204:33 (4:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 80-D.Cooper to CAR 31 for 9 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 2102 (4:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 80-D.Cooper to CAR 31 for 9 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q204:14 (4:14) (No Huddle) 39-D.Pierce right end pushed ob at CAR 25 for 6 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). Play 2127 (4:14) (No Huddle) 39-D.Pierce right end pushed ob at CAR 25 for 6 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).
Q203:38 (3:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 88-D.Goedert [3-P.Umanmielen]. PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at CAR 25 - No Play. Play 2154 (3:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 88-D.Goedert [3-P.Umanmielen]. PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at CAR 25 - No Play.
Q203:31 (3:31) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to CAR 2 for 1 yard (91-P.Jones; 97-B.Brown). Play 2188 (3:31) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to CAR 2 for 1 yard (91-P.Jones; 97-B.Brown).
Q202:47 (2:47) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2210 (2:47) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q202:42 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 2233 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q202:42 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to CAR 3. 83-D.Moore pushed ob at CAR 47 for 44 yards (7-K.Ringo). PENALTY on CAR-33-T.Dodson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30. Play 2248 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to CAR 3. 83-D.Moore pushed ob at CAR 47 for 44 yards (7-K.Ringo). PENALTY on CAR-33-T.Dodson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.
Q202:35 (2:35) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 29 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun; 27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on CAR-77-L.Fortner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20 - No Play. Play 2294 (2:35) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 29 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun; 27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on CAR-77-L.Fortner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20 - No Play.
Q202:07 (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker to CAR 15 for 5 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 27-Q.Mitchell). Penalty on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. Play 2327 (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker to CAR 15 for 5 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 27-Q.Mitchell). Penalty on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Coker. Play 2363 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Coker.
Q201:56 (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 21 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 2393 (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 21 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q201:21 (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 36 for no gain (98-J.Carter). Play 2418 (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 36 for no gain (98-J.Carter).
Q200:51 (:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Coker (33-C.DeJean). Play 2445 (:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Coker (33-C.DeJean).
Q200:42 (:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker to CAR 45 for 9 yards (2-T.Woolen). FUMBLES (2-T.Woolen), ball out of bounds at CAR 45. Play 2468 (:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker to CAR 45 for 9 yards (2-T.Woolen). FUMBLES (2-T.Woolen), ball out of bounds at CAR 45.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2511 Q315:00 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to CAR 3. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 30 for 27 yards (95-T.Robinson). Play 2531 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to CAR 3. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 30 for 27 yards (95-T.Robinson).
Q314:54 (14:54) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 84-M.Evans. Play 2554 (14:54) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 84-M.Evans.
Q314:49 (14:49) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-J.Metchie to CAR 39 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell). Play 2577 (14:49) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-J.Metchie to CAR 39 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell).
Q314:13 (14:13) Direct snap to 84-M.Evans. 84-M.Evans up the middle to CAR 40 for 1 yard (50-K.James-Newby). Play 2607 (14:13) Direct snap to 84-M.Evans. 84-M.Evans up the middle to CAR 40 for 1 yard (50-K.James-Newby).
Q313:31 (13:31) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 49 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 24-A.Mukuba). Penalty on PHI-50-K.James-Newby, Defensive Offside, declined. Play 2631 (13:31) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 49 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 24-A.Mukuba). Penalty on PHI-50-K.James-Newby, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q313:15 (13:15) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left. Play 2664 (13:15) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left.
Q313:10 (13:10) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (97-M.Ojomo). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (97-M.Ojomo). Play 2687 (13:10) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (97-M.Ojomo). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (97-M.Ojomo).
Q312:47 (12:47) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Coker (27-Q.Mitchell) [53-Z.Baun]. Play 2709 (12:47) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Coker (27-Q.Mitchell) [53-Z.Baun].
Q312:41 (12:41) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to PHI 39 for 11 yards (24-A.Mukuba). Play 2759 (12:41) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to PHI 39 for 11 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
Q311:58 (11:58) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Coker [97-M.Ojomo]. PENALTY on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 39 - No Play. Play 2781 (11:58) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Coker [97-M.Ojomo]. PENALTY on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 39 - No Play.
Q311:52 (11:52) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Coker. Play 2815 (11:52) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Coker.
Q311:46 (11:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right. Play 2838 (11:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right.
Q311:41 (11:41) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Coker. Play 2861 (11:41) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Coker.
Q311:37 (11:37) 10-R.Fitzgerald 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 2887 (11:37) 10-R.Fitzgerald 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q311:32 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 4. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for 35 yards (81-F.Franks). PENALTY on PHI-42-S.Mondon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30. Play 2907 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 4. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for 35 yards (81-F.Franks). PENALTY on PHI-42-S.Mondon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.
Q311:27 (11:27) 39-D.Pierce right tackle to PHI 22 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 5-J.Phillips). ** Injury Update: CAR-5-J.Phillips has returned to the game. Play 2953 (11:27) 39-D.Pierce right tackle to PHI 22 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 5-J.Phillips). ** Injury Update: CAR-5-J.Phillips has returned to the game.
Q310:45 (10:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks. Play 2978 (10:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks.
Q310:40 (10:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon (58-B.Okereke, 20-Z.Wheatley). Play 3001 (10:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 9-M.Lemon (58-B.Okereke, 20-Z.Wheatley).
Q310:36 (10:36) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to CAR 29, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 42 for 13 yards (38-C.Wisniewski). Play 3024 (10:36) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to CAR 29, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 42 for 13 yards (38-C.Wisniewski).
Q310:25 (10:25) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to 50 for 8 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 3050 (10:25) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to 50 for 8 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q309:50 (9:50) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to PHI 49 for 1 yard (90-J.Davis; 17-A.Ebiketie). Play 3079 (9:50) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to PHI 49 for 1 yard (90-J.Davis; 17-A.Ebiketie).
Q309:12 (9:12) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 49 for no gain (94-B.Young). Play 3101 (9:12) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 49 for no gain (94-B.Young).
Q308:28 (8:28) (Run formation) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 49 - No Play. Play 3123 (8:28) (Run formation) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 49 - No Play.
Q308:24 (8:24) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. Play 3147 (8:24) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
Q308:16 (8:16) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 6-D.Smith (24-W.Lee). Play 3167 (8:16) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 6-D.Smith (24-W.Lee).
Q308:12 (8:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 31 for 18 yards (24-W.Lee). Play 3197 (8:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 31 for 18 yards (24-W.Lee).
Q307:49 (7:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to PHI 33 for 2 yards (98-T.Wharton). Play 3222 (7:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to PHI 33 for 2 yards (98-T.Wharton).
Q307:15 (7:15) 16-T.McKee sacked at PHI 27 for -6 yards (55-D.Lloyd). Play 3244 (7:15) 16-T.McKee sacked at PHI 27 for -6 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
Q306:31 (6:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith. Play 3264 (6:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith.
Q306:26 (6:26) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to CAR 8, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. Play 3287 (6:26) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to CAR 8, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
Q306:17 (6:17) (Shotgun) 23-T.Etienne right end to CAR 7 for -1 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 3306 (6:17) (Shotgun) 23-T.Etienne right end to CAR 7 for -1 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q305:29 (5:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 4 yards, enforced at CAR 7 - No Play. Play 3328 (5:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 4 yards, enforced at CAR 7 - No Play.
Q305:08 (5:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 10 for 7 yards (2-T.Woolen). Play 3352 (5:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 10 for 7 yards (2-T.Woolen).
Q304:27 (4:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 42 for 32 yards (24-A.Mukuba). Play 3377 (4:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 42 for 32 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
Q303:50 (3:50) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 45 for 3 yards (94-B.Young). Play 3402 (3:50) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 45 for 3 yards (94-B.Young).
Q303:13 (3:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to PHI 40 for 15 yards (23-K.Moore). Play 3424 (3:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to PHI 40 for 15 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q302:36 (2:36) 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 33 for 7 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). Play 3449 (2:36) 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 33 for 7 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).
Q301:53 (1:53) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to PHI 31 for 2 yards (54-J.Trotter; 98-J.Carter). Play 3471 (1:53) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to PHI 31 for 2 yards (54-J.Trotter; 98-J.Carter).
Q301:07 (1:07) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left. Play 3493 (1:07) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left.
Q301:03 (1:03) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 12 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter). Play 3516 (1:03) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 12 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).
Q300:23 (:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard to PHI 11 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun). Play 3549 (:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard to PHI 11 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3574 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 3594 (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q414:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left tackle to PHI 3 for 8 yards (54-J.Trotter). (Virtual Measurement). Play 3617 (14:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left tackle to PHI 3 for 8 yards (54-J.Trotter). (Virtual Measurement).
Q414:19 (14:19) (Run formation) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. PENALTY on PHI-97-M.Ojomo, Encroachment, 2 yards, enforced at PHI 3 - No Play. Play 3640 (14:19) (Run formation) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. PENALTY on PHI-97-M.Ojomo, Encroachment, 2 yards, enforced at PHI 3 - No Play.
Q414:15 (14:15) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young sacked at PHI 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 90-J.Davis and 54-J.Trotter). Play 3666 (14:15) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young sacked at PHI 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 90-J.Davis and 54-J.Trotter).
Q413:39 (13:39) 30-C.Hubbard left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3688 (13:39) 30-C.Hubbard left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q413:34 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-B.Young pass to 13-J.Metchie is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 3711 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-B.Young pass to 13-J.Metchie is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q413:34 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 56 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 9. 80-D.Cooper to PHI 31 for 22 yards (83-D.Moore). Play 3724 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 56 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 9. 80-D.Cooper to PHI 31 for 22 yards (83-D.Moore).
Q413:29 (13:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 36 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke). Play 3754 (13:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 36 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke).
Q413:08 (13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (24-W.Lee). PHI-6-D.Smith was injured during the play. Play 3779 (13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (24-W.Lee). PHI-6-D.Smith was injured during the play.
Q413:02 (13:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to CAR 47 for 17 yards (95-D.Brown). PHI-13-D.Wicks was injured during the play. Play 3805 (13:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to CAR 47 for 17 yards (95-D.Brown). PHI-13-D.Wicks was injured during the play.
Q412:37 (12:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 6-D.Smith to CAR 39 for 8 yards (24-W.Lee). ** Injury Update: PHI-6-D.Smith has returned to the game. Play 3833 (12:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 6-D.Smith to CAR 39 for 8 yards (24-W.Lee). ** Injury Update: PHI-6-D.Smith has returned to the game.
Q412:14 (12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 39-D.Pierce to CAR 36 for 3 yards (55-D.Lloyd). Play 3865 (12:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 39-D.Pierce to CAR 36 for 3 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
Q411:56 (11:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert [7-T.Moehrig]. Play 3893 (11:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert [7-T.Moehrig].
Q411:52 (11:52) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith ran ob at CAR 27 for 9 yards. The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 3916 (11:52) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith ran ob at CAR 27 for 9 yards. The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q411:25 (11:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to CAR 23 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott). Play 3946 (11:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle to CAR 23 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q411:06 (11:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 83-J.Mundt to CAR 19 for 4 yards (24-W.Lee). Play 3970 (11:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 83-J.Mundt to CAR 19 for 4 yards (24-W.Lee).
Q410:48 (10:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3995 (10:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q410:42 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. Play 4021 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q410:42 4-J.Elliott kicks 63 yards from PHI 35 to CAR 2. 83-D.Moore to CAR 11 for 9 yards (84-E.Jenkins). Play 4036 4-J.Elliott kicks 63 yards from PHI 35 to CAR 2. 83-D.Moore to CAR 11 for 9 yards (84-E.Jenkins).
Q410:37 (10:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Coker (53-Z.Baun). Play 4059 (10:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Coker (53-Z.Baun).
Q410:34 (10:34) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 13 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 53-Z.Baun). Play 4082 (10:34) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 13 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 53-Z.Baun).
Q409:53 (9:53) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 4-T.McMillan. Play 4104 (9:53) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 4-T.McMillan.
Q409:46 (9:46) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to PHI 48, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-81-F.Franks. Play 4127 (9:46) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to PHI 48, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-81-F.Franks.
Q409:32 (9:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee Aborted. 75-J.Majors FUMBLES at PHI 43, recovered by PHI-16-T.McKee at PHI 36. ** Injury Update: PHI-13-D.Wicks has returned to the game. Play 4147 (9:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee Aborted. 75-J.Majors FUMBLES at PHI 43, recovered by PHI-16-T.McKee at PHI 36. ** Injury Update: PHI-13-D.Wicks has returned to the game.
Q409:08 (9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 39-D.Pierce to PHI 40 for 4 yards (55-D.Lloyd). Play 4174 (9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 39-D.Pierce to PHI 40 for 4 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
Q408:35 (8:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith (95-D.Brown, 24-W.Lee). Play 4199 (8:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith (95-D.Brown, 24-W.Lee).
Q408:30 (8:30) 10-B.Mann punts 8 yards to PHI 48, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. Play 4236 (8:30) 10-B.Mann punts 8 yards to PHI 48, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
Q408:24 (8:24) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to PHI 48 for no gain (53-Z.Baun). Play 4259 (8:24) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to PHI 48 for no gain (53-Z.Baun).
Q407:47 (7:47) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble pushed ob at PHI 39 for 9 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). Play 4285 (7:47) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble pushed ob at PHI 39 for 9 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
Q407:08 (7:08) 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 34 for 5 yards (27-Q.Mitchell; 17-A.Ebiketie). PHI-90-J.Davis was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 34. Play 4315 (7:08) 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 34 for 5 yards (27-Q.Mitchell; 17-A.Ebiketie). PHI-90-J.Davis was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 34.
Q406:39 (6:39) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 82-T.Tremble for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-82-T.Tremble, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Play 4351 (6:39) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 82-T.Tremble for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-82-T.Tremble, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q406:33 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. Play 4395 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q406:33 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 4. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 20 yards (87-B.Tremayne; 46-J.Kuwatch). PENALTY on PHI-22-M.McWilliams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 23. Play 4421 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 4. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 20 yards (87-B.Tremayne; 46-J.Kuwatch). PENALTY on PHI-22-M.McWilliams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 23.
Q406:27 (6:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at PHI 19 for 6 yards (29-A.Evans). Play 4457 (6:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at PHI 19 for 6 yards (29-A.Evans).
Q406:08 (6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith to PHI 30 for 11 yards (58-B.Okereke; 55-D.Lloyd). PENALTY on CAR-3-P.Umanmielen, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 30. Play 4499 (6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith to PHI 30 for 11 yards (58-B.Okereke; 55-D.Lloyd). PENALTY on CAR-3-P.Umanmielen, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 30.
Q405:52 (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 9-M.Lemon to CAR 42 for 13 yards (21-N.Scott). Play 4535 (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 9-M.Lemon to CAR 42 for 13 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q405:31 (5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee sacked at PHI 47 for -11 yards (sack split by 7-T.Moehrig and 5-J.Phillips). Play 4560 (5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee sacked at PHI 47 for -11 yards (sack split by 7-T.Moehrig and 5-J.Phillips).
Q404:57 (4:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 19-E.Moore to CAR 49 for 4 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). Play 4580 (4:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 19-E.Moore to CAR 49 for 4 yards (20-Z.Wheatley).
Q404:36 (4:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper. Play 4605 (4:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper.
Q404:32 (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (20-Z.Wheatley). Play 4628 (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (20-Z.Wheatley).
Q404:26 (4:26) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to PHI 46 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean). Play 4651 (4:26) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to PHI 46 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean).
Q404:20 Timeout #1 by PHI at 04:20. Play 4685 Timeout #1 by PHI at 04:20.
Q404:20 (4:20) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 42 for 4 yards (23-K.Moore). Play 4673 (4:20) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 42 for 4 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q404:15 Timeout #2 by PHI at 04:15. Play 4714 Timeout #2 by PHI at 04:15.
Q404:15 (4:15) 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 40 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 94-B.Young). Play 4702 (4:15) 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 40 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 94-B.Young).
Q404:07 Timeout #3 by PHI at 04:07. Play 4743 Timeout #3 by PHI at 04:07.
Q404:07 (4:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 83-D.Moore to PHI 13 for 27 yards (94-B.Young). Play 4731 (4:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 83-D.Moore to PHI 13 for 27 yards (94-B.Young).
Q403:21 (3:21) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 6 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell). Play 4763 (3:21) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 6 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell).
Q402:35 (2:35) PENALTY on CAR-63-R.Walker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play. Play 4785 (2:35) PENALTY on CAR-63-R.Walker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play.
Q402:35 (2:35) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 4 for 7 yards (94-B.Young; 24-A.Mukuba). Play 4814 (2:35) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to PHI 4 for 7 yards (94-B.Young; 24-A.Mukuba).
Q402:00 (2:00) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 2 for 2 yards (24-A.Mukuba). Play 4836 (2:00) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 2 for 2 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
Q401:16 (1:16) 9-B.Young kneels to PHI 3 for -1 yards. Play 4867 (1:16) 9-B.Young kneels to PHI 3 for -1 yards.
Q400:39 (:39) 9-B.Young kneels to PHI 4 for -1 yards. Play 4889 (:39) 9-B.Young kneels to PHI 4 for -1 yards.
Down
4
Game seconds remaining 2319
Half seconds remaining 519
Quarter seconds remaining 519
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -2.63 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 30
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2319
Half seconds remaining 519
Quarter seconds remaining 519
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 35
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2319
Half seconds remaining 519
Quarter seconds remaining 519
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q106:57 Penalty · PHI (6:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Smith (24-W.Lee). PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 23 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 6.8 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3112
Half seconds remaining 1312
Quarter seconds remaining 412
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 15
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3112
Half seconds remaining 1312
Quarter seconds remaining 412
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 2.7 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 71
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3112
Half seconds remaining 1312
Quarter seconds remaining 412
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 15
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3112
Half seconds remaining 1312
Quarter seconds remaining 412
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q203:38 Penalty · PHI (3:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 88-D.Goedert [3-P.Umanmielen]. PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at CAR 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 6.63 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 3
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2011
Half seconds remaining 211
Quarter seconds remaining 211
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2011
Half seconds remaining 211
Quarter seconds remaining 211
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 2.51 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 3
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2011
Half seconds remaining 211
Quarter seconds remaining 211
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 25
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2011
Half seconds remaining 211
Quarter seconds remaining 211
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q110:56 Kick · CAR (10:56) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 3.02 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -2.287595297838399
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.06777777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3356
Half seconds remaining 1556
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 656
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.6546282771760383 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65463/0.62446/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CAR 1.34 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q206:11 Penalty · PHI (6:11) PENALTY on PHI-88-D.Goedert, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -2.56 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2171
Half seconds remaining 371
Quarter seconds remaining 371
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 4
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2171
Half seconds remaining 371
Quarter seconds remaining 371
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -0.76 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 9
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 58
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2171
Half seconds remaining 371
Quarter seconds remaining 371
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 4
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 53
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 2171
Half seconds remaining 371
Quarter seconds remaining 371
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q414:19 Penalty · CAR (14:19) (Run formation) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. PENALTY on PHI-97-M.Ojomo, Encroachment, 2 yards, enforced at PHI 3 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -2.54 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 859
Half seconds remaining 859
Quarter seconds remaining 859
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 859
Half seconds remaining 859
Quarter seconds remaining 859
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -2.47 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 859
Half seconds remaining 859
Quarter seconds remaining 859
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 859
Half seconds remaining 859
Quarter seconds remaining 859
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q106:57 Penalty · PHI (6:57) (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -2.33 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 15
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3117
Half seconds remaining 1317
Quarter seconds remaining 417
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3117
Half seconds remaining 1317
Quarter seconds remaining 417
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -0.77 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 15
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3117
Half seconds remaining 1317
Quarter seconds remaining 417
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 3117
Half seconds remaining 1317
Quarter seconds remaining 417
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q308:28 Penalty · CAR (8:28) (Run formation) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 2.1 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 6
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1408
Half seconds remaining 1408
Quarter seconds remaining 508
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1408
Half seconds remaining 1408
Quarter seconds remaining 508
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 0.97 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 6
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1408
Half seconds remaining 1408
Quarter seconds remaining 508
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1408
Half seconds remaining 1408
Quarter seconds remaining 508
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q101:48 Fourth down · CAR (1:48) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 1.91 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.244348735044744
Yardline 100 58
Elapsed share 0.22
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2808
Half seconds remaining 1008
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 108
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7080317681534476 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70803/ NA/0.68894 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:58 Penalty · CAR (11:58) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Coker [97-M.Ojomo]. PENALTY on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 39 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI -1.38 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 34
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1612
Half seconds remaining 1612
Quarter seconds remaining 712
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1612
Half seconds remaining 1612
Quarter seconds remaining 712
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI -0.84 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 34
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1612
Half seconds remaining 1612
Quarter seconds remaining 712
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 39
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 1612
Half seconds remaining 1612
Quarter seconds remaining 712
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q305:29 Penalty · CAR (5:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 4 yards, enforced at CAR 7 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 0.54 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 15
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 97
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1229
Half seconds remaining 1229
Quarter seconds remaining 329
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 11
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 93
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1229
Half seconds remaining 1229
Quarter seconds remaining 329
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 0.4 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 15
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 97
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1229
Half seconds remaining 1229
Quarter seconds remaining 329
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 11
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 93
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 6
Game seconds remaining 1229
Half seconds remaining 1229
Quarter seconds remaining 329
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q402:35 Penalty · CAR (2:35) PENALTY on CAR-63-R.Walker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 6 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI 0.05 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 8
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 11
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 155
Half seconds remaining 155
Quarter seconds remaining 155
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 3
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 6
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 155
Half seconds remaining 155
Quarter seconds remaining 155
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence PHI 1.31 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 8
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 11
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 155
Half seconds remaining 155
Quarter seconds remaining 155
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 3
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 6
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 155
Half seconds remaining 155
Quarter seconds remaining 155
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Show the remaining 38 recorded events Q113:41 Fourth down · PHI (13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to CAR 15, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 39 for 24 yards (42-S.Mondon). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -2.74789320526029
Yardline 100 74
Elapsed share 0.02194444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3521
Half seconds remaining 1721
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 821
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3355340748774771 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29858/ NA/0.33553 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:05 Fourth down · CAR (7:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.769743305434519
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.1319444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q210:34 Fourth down · CAR (10:34) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to PHI 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.8212372233348721
Yardline 100 45
Elapsed share 0.3238888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q209:42 Fourth down · PHI (9:42) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to PHI 35, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.7751326952054787
Yardline 100 88
Elapsed share 0.3383333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q311:37 Kick · CAR (11:37) 10-R.Fitzgerald 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.324022193562045
Yardline 100 34
Elapsed share 0.5563888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q310:36 Fourth down · PHI (10:36) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to CAR 29, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 42 for 13 yards (38-C.Wisniewski). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.3027884068437324
Yardline 100 78
Elapsed share 0.5733333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q308:24 Fourth down · CAR (8:24) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.2614825543859439
Yardline 100 54
Elapsed share 0.61
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q306:26 Fourth down · PHI (6:26) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to CAR 8, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.2293516594670007
Yardline 100 73
Elapsed share 0.6427777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q301:03 Fourth down · CAR (1:03) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 12 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter). + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.1601911144355913
Yardline 100 31
Elapsed share 0.7325
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q409:46 Fourth down · CAR (9:46) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to PHI 48, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-81-F.Franks. + Fourth down decision cost CAR 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam CAR
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.105370075144634
Yardline 100 87
Elapsed share 0.8372222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3
Original posteam CAR
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q408:30 Fourth down · PHI (8:30) 10-B.Mann punts 8 yards to PHI 48, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 18
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.0968374920940796
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.8583333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q404:32 Fourth down · PHI (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (20-Z.Wheatley). + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -0.07433558619378616
Yardline 100 49
Elapsed share 0.9244444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q109:53 Penalty · PHI (9:53) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (34-C.Steele). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 26. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:02 Fourth down · CAR (9:02) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at CAR 41 for 21 yards. Penalty on PHI-24-A.Mukuba, Illegal Contact, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:00 Fourth down · PHI (4:00) (Punt formation) Penalty on PHI, Delay of Game, declined. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:00 Fourth down · PHI (4:00) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 83-D.Moore. + Fourth down decision cost PHI 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PHI
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team CAR
Home team PHI
Away total 21.25
Home total 18.25
Total line 39.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -3
Spread time -1.440915903269398
Yardline 100 42
Elapsed share 0.1833333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18.25
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3
Original posteam PHI
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q101:56 Penalty · CAR (1:56) 6-S.Martin punts 22 yards to PHI 41, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-50-K.James-Newby, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Penalty · PHI (15:00) 16-T.McKee pass deep middle to 80-D.Cooper to CAR 49 for 20 yards (29-A.Evans) [55-D.Lloyd]. PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Mundt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:57 Penalty · PHI (12:57) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to CAR 18, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 42 for 24 yards (54-J.Trotter). CAR-48-T.Incoom was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: PHI-34-C.Steele has returned to the game. PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 38. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:13 Penalty · CAR (11:13) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 84-M.Evans to PHI 17 for 23 yards (27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:46 Fourth down · PHI (9:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith [95-D.Brown]. Penalty on PHI-72-M.Bell, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:39 Penalty · CAR (8:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on CAR-9-B.Young, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:33 Penalty · CAR (8:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 24 for 16 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell). PENALTY on PHI-90-J.Davis, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 24. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q208:08 Kick · CAR 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Extra point points above expectation CAR -0.52 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q202:42 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q202:42 Penalty · CAR 4-J.Elliott kicks 62 yards from PHI 35 to CAR 3. 83-D.Moore pushed ob at CAR 47 for 44 yards (7-K.Ringo). PENALTY on CAR-33-T.Dodson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:35 Penalty · CAR (2:35) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 29 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun; 27-Q.Mitchell). PENALTY on CAR-77-L.Fortner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:07 Fourth down · CAR (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker to CAR 15 for 5 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 27-Q.Mitchell). Penalty on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:42 Fumble · CAR (:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker to CAR 45 for 9 yards (2-T.Woolen). FUMBLES (2-T.Woolen), ball out of bounds at CAR 45. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q313:31 Fourth down · CAR (13:31) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 49 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 24-A.Mukuba). Penalty on PHI-50-K.James-Newby, Defensive Offside, declined. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:32 Penalty · PHI 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 4. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for 35 yards (81-F.Franks). PENALTY on PHI-42-S.Mondon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q410:42 Kick · PHI 4-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. + Extra point points above expectation PHI 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q409:32 Fumble · PHI (9:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee Aborted. 75-J.Majors FUMBLES at PHI 43, recovered by PHI-16-T.McKee at PHI 36. ** Injury Update: PHI-13-D.Wicks has returned to the game. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q407:08 Penalty · CAR (7:08) 30-C.Hubbard left end to PHI 34 for 5 yards (27-Q.Mitchell; 17-A.Ebiketie). PHI-90-J.Davis was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 34. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:39 Penalty · CAR (6:39) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 82-T.Tremble for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-82-T.Tremble, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence CAR Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:33 Kick · CAR 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. + Extra point points above expectation CAR -0.52 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q406:33 Penalty · PHI 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to PHI 4. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 20 yards (87-B.Tremayne; 46-J.Kuwatch). PENALTY on PHI-22-M.McWilliams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 23. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:08 Penalty · PHI (6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 6-D.Smith to PHI 30 for 11 yards (58-B.Okereke; 55-D.Lloyd). PENALTY on CAR-3-P.Umanmielen, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 30. + Observed ruling consequence PHI Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61
nflverse-raw-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 9d9ca1a63f9dff4b0fe78e72c08070597f0f2f11b05cf9584dade6a446d28cb0nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:34 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 ab47e7b3fc5b30f6706af1a99cfc9245a1c36e9feb15a4cb07b3eacb49557761Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 8d828b7e8c5c1f13a47cdb171963f9395defeadc178bb0f704d0227f57bf3058
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 3 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:16 PM UTC Version 2 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:11 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 3125
Half seconds remaining 1325
Quarter seconds remaining 425
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.673031502139083 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.64086/ NA/0.67303 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 2434
Half seconds remaining 634
Quarter seconds remaining 634
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7198025914766972 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.71194/0.69807/0.71980 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-3
Game seconds remaining 2382
Half seconds remaining 582
Quarter seconds remaining 582
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2343687107725057 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.23036/ NA/0.23437 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 1597
Half seconds remaining 1597
Quarter seconds remaining 697
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7307788586309532 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70193/0.73078/0.70229 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation CAR 1.34 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-6
Game seconds remaining 1536
Half seconds remaining 1536
Quarter seconds remaining 636
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1781464038646327 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16215/ NA/0.17815 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
6
Game seconds remaining 1404
Half seconds remaining 1404
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7993936982245425 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.78943/ NA/0.79939 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-6
Game seconds remaining 1286
Half seconds remaining 1286
Quarter seconds remaining 386
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1702561282274045 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14323/ NA/0.17026 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
6
Game seconds remaining 963
Half seconds remaining 963
Quarter seconds remaining 63
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8531434364284175 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85314/0.83290/0.81393 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
5
Game seconds remaining 586
Half seconds remaining 586
Quarter seconds remaining 586
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7203027626479406 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68757/ NA/0.72030 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-5
Game seconds remaining 510
Half seconds remaining 510
Quarter seconds remaining 510
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.167328685722833 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13569/ NA/0.16733 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-11
Game seconds remaining 272
Half seconds remaining 272
Quarter seconds remaining 272
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.01736290671503949 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01736/0.01512/0.01683 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-3
Game seconds remaining 2940
Half seconds remaining 1140
Quarter seconds remaining 240
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3014288288048946 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.29844/0.29081/0.30143 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled