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Debatable 2 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Penalty patterns were this unusual in 33 of 779 comparison games. How this rating was calculated Debatable (2/5): The penalty pattern was unusually far from team, opponent and available referee expectations.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: GB by 6.1; actual result: GB by 10.
The 3.9-point difference was matched or exceeded in 531 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Debatable · 2/5 Combined penalty yards: 204 versus 104.2 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 33 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 13.08%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: DAL by 1.5; actual result: GB by 10. The difference was 11.5 points.
2,634 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Dallas Cowboys by 1.5
Final margin Green Bay Packers by 10
Difference 11.5 points
Green Bay Packers covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
2,634 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (36.2%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score GB by 6.1
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Green Bay Packers chance to win during the game 167 preplay estimates across 194 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 27 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 4 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q1 · 01:53 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 922 (1:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters to GB 42 for no gain (0-M.Golden). GB-32-M.Lloyd was injured during the play.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 10.1 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 01:45 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 1908 (1:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at GB 32 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to GB 32 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs). GB-85-T.Kraft was injured during the play.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.1 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 01:01 Recorded game event
Green Bay Packers · Play 2064 THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 194 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 194 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 28-T.Smack kicks 56 yards from GB 35 to DAL 9. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 34 for 25 yards (59-T.Hopper). DAL-9-K.Turpin was injured during the play. Play 39 28-T.Smack kicks 56 yards from GB 35 to DAL 9. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 34 for 25 yards (59-T.Hopper). DAL-9-K.Turpin was injured during the play.
Q114:55 (14:55) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 42 for 8 yards (94-K.Brooks; 90-L.Van Ness). Play 62 (14:55) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 42 for 8 yards (94-K.Brooks; 90-L.Van Ness).
Q114:23 (14:23) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 40 for -2 yards (94-K.Brooks, 99-B.Sorrell). Play 84 (14:23) 33-J.Williams right tackle to DAL 40 for -2 yards (94-K.Brooks, 99-B.Sorrell).
Q113:44 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 40 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q111:20 Fourth down · DAL (11:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 3.64 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -1.174709242359833
Yardline 100 47 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 dbab80e03aa95b8f3bb1d0b9c69f0c766813ffb99ef8f37206b13801a8726a14GB by 10
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
531 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 33 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Craig Wrolstad Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.6 accepted penalties for 97 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.6 / 45.3 yd per game. Away teams: 6 / 51.7 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Craig Wrolstad; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Green Bay Packers · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Green Bay Packers · Opponent penalties Opponent DAL was charged 11 penalties for 108 yards.
Dallas Cowboys · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Dallas Cowboys · Opponent penalties Opponent GB was charged 11 penalties for 96 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 167 model estimates across 194 recorded game entries.
27 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (194 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence 0.58 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence 0.85 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence 1.29 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence 0.68 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence -1.94 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence -0.35 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence 0.26 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence 0.34 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence -0.64 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence -0.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Observed ruling consequence -1.6 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
GB Ruling expected points consequence -1.25 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DAL Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
DAL Fourth down decision cost 3.64 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56511/0.48566/0.52870 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30182/ NA/0.31771 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 1.21 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72991/0.71783/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82717/ NA/0.86275 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14362/0.10977/0.11121 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80692/0.76788/0.80030 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83084/0.84143/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09390/ NA/0.09529 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10132/0.05252/0.06173 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96019/0.96998/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DAL Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01327/0.01024/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
GB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99733/ NA/0.99749 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
GB Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
DAL Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
GB Field goal points above expectation 0.53 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 13th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DAL Field goal points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
GB Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
DAL Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
GB Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 194 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
DAL Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 194 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
DAL Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.49 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
82 of 82 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 82 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.53 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
82 of 82 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 82 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.64 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
48 of 48 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 48 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DAL Pass interference called penalties above expectation 1.3 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
48 of 48 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 48 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.72 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.31 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
GB Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.71 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 16-B.Melton (25-J.Porter). PENALTY on DAL-25-J.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at GB 36 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on DAL awarded GB a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 09:17 Recorded game event
Dallas Cowboys · Play 3955 (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 29 for 10 yards (7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 19 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on GB awarded DAL a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.8 percentage points across this play.
(13:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 47 for 7 yards (25-K.Nixon) [29-X.McKinney].
Play 106
(13:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 47 for 7 yards (25-K.Nixon) [29-X.McKinney].
Q113:13 (13:13) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 30-H.Luepke to DAL 49 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 131 (13:13) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 30-H.Luepke to DAL 49 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q112:37 (12:37) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to GB 47 for 4 yards (99-B.Sorrell). Play 156 (12:37) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left guard to GB 47 for 4 yards (99-B.Sorrell).
Q112:01 (12:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to GB 47 for no gain (33-E.Williams; 57-B.Cox). Play 178 (12:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to GB 47 for no gain (33-E.Williams; 57-B.Cox).
Q111:20 (11:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen. Play 212 (11:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen.
Q111:13 (11:13) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to GB 8 for -2 yards (25-J.Porter). Play 232 (11:13) 32-M.Lloyd up the middle to GB 8 for -2 yards (25-J.Porter).
Q110:53 (10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Williams to GB 15 for 7 yards (14-M.Bell; 13-C.Downs) [7-R.Gary]. Play 269 (10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Williams to GB 15 for 7 yards (14-M.Bell; 13-C.Downs) [7-R.Gary].
Q110:19 (10:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Williams to GB 30 for 15 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 294 (10:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Williams to GB 30 for 15 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q109:42 (9:42) 32-M.Lloyd left end to GB 27 for -3 yards (26-D.Bland). Play 319 (9:42) 32-M.Lloyd left end to GB 27 for -3 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q109:02 (9:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 32-M.Lloyd. Play 341 (9:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 32-M.Lloyd.
Q108:58 (8:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to DAL 46 for 27 yards. Play 364 (8:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to DAL 46 for 27 yards.
Q108:09 (8:09) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong left guard to DAL 46 for no gain (55-J.Barham). Play 389 (8:09) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong left guard to DAL 46 for no gain (55-J.Barham).
Q107:47 (7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at DAL 9 for 37 yards (28-S.Revel). PENALTY on GB-0-M.Golden, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 9. Play 411 (7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at DAL 9 for 37 yards (28-S.Revel). PENALTY on GB-0-M.Golden, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 9.
Q107:28 (7:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 83-S.Williams. PENALTY on GB-79-T.Glover, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 24 - No Play. Play 452 (7:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 83-S.Williams. PENALTY on GB-79-T.Glover, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 24 - No Play.
Q107:22 (7:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-97-K.Clark, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play. Play 486 (7:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-97-K.Clark, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play.
Q107:22 (7:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 9-C.Watson. Play 510 (7:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 9-C.Watson.
Q107:17 (7:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at DAL 27 for -3 yards (92-Q.Williams). Play 538 (7:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at DAL 27 for -3 yards (92-Q.Williams).
Q106:35 (6:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 22-P.Strong to DAL 13 for 14 yards (24-M.Hooker). Play 558 (6:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 22-P.Strong to DAL 13 for 14 yards (24-M.Hooker).
Q106:08 (6:08) (No Huddle) 22-P.Strong left tackle to DAL 12 for 1 yard (13-C.Downs; 91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 583 (6:08) (No Huddle) 22-P.Strong left tackle to DAL 12 for 1 yard (13-C.Downs; 91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q105:22 (5:22) 32-M.Lloyd left end pushed ob at DAL 9 for 3 yards (23-A.Speed). Play 605 (5:22) 32-M.Lloyd left end pushed ob at DAL 9 for 3 yards (23-A.Speed).
Q104:46 (4:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 632 (4:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q104:43 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 658 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q104:43 28-T.Smack kicks 55 yards from GB 35 to DAL 10. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 32 for 22 yards (58-I.McDuffie). Play 673 28-T.Smack kicks 55 yards from GB 35 to DAL 10. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 32 for 22 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
Q104:39 (4:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-60-T.Guyton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play. Play 709 (4:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-60-T.Guyton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play.
Q104:39 (4:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams pushed ob at DAL 43 for 16 yards (29-X.McKinney). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 27 - No Play. Play 733 (4:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams pushed ob at DAL 43 for 16 yards (29-X.McKinney). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 27 - No Play.
Q104:11 (4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 28 for 6 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 774 (4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 28 for 6 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q103:35 (3:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 30 for 2 yards (2-B.Cisse). Play 799 (3:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 30 for 2 yards (2-B.Cisse).
Q102:52 (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb. Play 824 (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb.
Q102:46 (2:46) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to GB 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-C.Owen pushed ob at GB 41 for 16 yards (50-S.James). Play 859 (2:46) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to GB 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-C.Owen pushed ob at GB 41 for 16 yards (50-S.James).
Q102:36 (2:36) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 39 for -2 yards (93-E.Garcia). Play 890 (2:36) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 39 for -2 yards (93-E.Garcia).
Q101:53 (1:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters to GB 42 for no gain (0-M.Golden). GB-32-M.Lloyd was injured during the play. Play 922 (1:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at GB 42. 53-D.Winters to GB 42 for no gain (0-M.Golden). GB-32-M.Lloyd was injured during the play.
Q101:50 (1:50) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 32-T.Goodson to GB 33 for 9 yards (7-J.Bullard). Play 988 (1:50) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 32-T.Goodson to GB 33 for 9 yards (7-J.Bullard).
Q101:18 (1:18) 32-T.Goodson up the middle to GB 35 for -2 yards (99-B.Sorrell). Play 1013 (1:18) 32-T.Goodson up the middle to GB 35 for -2 yards (99-B.Sorrell).
Q100:43 (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to GB 19 for 16 yards (7-J.Bullard). Play 1035 (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to GB 19 for 16 yards (7-J.Bullard).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1060 Q215:00 (15:00) 77-B.Jones reported in as eligible. 32-T.Goodson left tackle to GB 17 for 2 yards (2-B.Cisse). Play 1080 (15:00) 77-B.Jones reported in as eligible. 32-T.Goodson left tackle to GB 17 for 2 yards (2-B.Cisse).
Q214:28 (14:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb (2-B.Cisse) [44-Z.Franklin]. Play 1104 (14:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb (2-B.Cisse) [44-Z.Franklin].
Q214:23 (14:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams at GB 3. 33-E.Williams to GB 20 for 17 yards (87-J.Ferguson). Play 1127 (14:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams at GB 3. 33-E.Williams to GB 20 for 17 yards (87-J.Ferguson).
Q214:15 (14:15) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to GB 22 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham). Play 1154 (14:15) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to GB 22 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham).
Q213:40 (13:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson (25-J.Porter). Play 1183 (13:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson (25-J.Porter).
Q213:36 (13:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 22-P.Strong to GB 32 for 10 yards (26-D.Bland). DAL-53-D.Winters was injured during the play. Play 1206 (13:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 22-P.Strong to GB 32 for 10 yards (26-D.Bland). DAL-53-D.Winters was injured during the play.
Q213:12 (13:12) 10-J.Love scrambles left tackle to GB 40 for 8 yards (50-S.James). PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play. Play 1231 (13:12) 10-J.Love scrambles left tackle to GB 40 for 8 yards (50-S.James). PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play.
Q212:44 (12:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 83-S.Williams to GB 29 for 7 yards (50-S.James; 91-O.Ogbonnia). ** Injury Update: GB-32-M.Lloyd has returned to the game. Play 1274 (12:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 83-S.Williams to GB 29 for 7 yards (50-S.James; 91-O.Ogbonnia). ** Injury Update: GB-32-M.Lloyd has returned to the game.
Q211:54 (11:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at DAL 43 for 28 yards (13-C.Downs; 23-A.Speed) [55-J.Barham]. Play 1299 (11:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at DAL 43 for 28 yards (13-C.Downs; 23-A.Speed) [55-J.Barham].
Q211:17 (11:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden. Play 1332 (11:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden.
Q211:10 (11:10) (Shotgun) 83-S.Williams right end pushed ob at DAL 38 for 5 yards (13-C.Downs; 26-D.Bland). Play 1355 (11:10) (Shotgun) 83-S.Williams right end pushed ob at DAL 38 for 5 yards (13-C.Downs; 26-D.Bland).
Q210:37 (10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right end to DAL 25 for 13 yards (25-J.Porter). PENALTY on DAL-25-J.Porter, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 25. Play 1387 (10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right end to DAL 25 for 13 yards (25-J.Porter). PENALTY on DAL-25-J.Porter, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 25.
Q210:06 (10:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden to DAL 16 for 4 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 1420 (10:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 0-M.Golden to DAL 16 for 4 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q209:31 (9:31) 83-S.Williams left end to DAL 12 for 4 yards (25-J.Porter). Play 1445 (9:31) 83-S.Williams left end to DAL 12 for 4 yards (25-J.Porter).
Q208:53 (8:53) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong left end to DAL 6 for 6 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 1467 (8:53) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong left end to DAL 6 for 6 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q208:11 (8:11) 22-P.Strong right tackle to DAL 1 for 5 yards (92-Q.Williams; 24-M.Hooker). Play 1489 (8:11) 22-P.Strong right tackle to DAL 1 for 5 yards (92-Q.Williams; 24-M.Hooker).
Q207:29 (7:29) 22-P.Strong up the middle to DAL 2 for -1 yards (92-Q.Williams). Play 1511 (7:29) 22-P.Strong up the middle to DAL 2 for -1 yards (92-Q.Williams).
Q206:46 (6:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to DAL 2 for no gain (24-M.Hooker). Play 1533 (6:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to DAL 2 for no gain (24-M.Hooker).
Q206:01 Timeout #1 by DAL at 06:01. Play 1570 Timeout #1 by DAL at 06:01.
Q206:01 (6:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play. Play 1558 (6:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play.
Q206:01 (6:01) 28-T.Smack 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 1589 (6:01) 28-T.Smack 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q205:58 28-T.Smack kicks 58 yards from GB 35 to DAL 7. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 28 for 21 yards (54-K.Welch). Play 1609 28-T.Smack kicks 58 yards from GB 35 to DAL 7. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 28 for 21 yards (54-K.Welch).
Q205:54 (5:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams ran ob at DAL 37 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 1639 (5:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams ran ob at DAL 37 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q205:34 (5:34) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 89-B.Spann-Ford to 50 for 13 yards (29-X.McKinney). Play 1669 (5:34) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 89-B.Spann-Ford to 50 for 13 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q204:52 (4:52) (No Huddle) 33-J.Williams left tackle to GB 45 for 5 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 1696 (4:52) (No Huddle) 33-J.Williams left tackle to GB 45 for 5 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q204:17 (4:17) 33-J.Williams left tackle to GB 41 for 4 yards (58-I.McDuffie). Play 1718 (4:17) 33-J.Williams left tackle to GB 41 for 4 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
Q203:40 (3:40) 77-B.Jones reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams up the middle to GB 39 for 2 yards (94-K.Brooks). Play 1740 (3:40) 77-B.Jones reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams up the middle to GB 39 for 2 yards (94-K.Brooks).
Q203:04 (3:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens to GB 23 for 16 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 1764 (3:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens to GB 23 for 16 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q202:24 (2:24) 32-T.Goodson right end to GB 14 for 9 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 29-X.McKinney). PENALTY on DAL-19-R.Flournoy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 23 - No Play. Play 1789 (2:24) 32-T.Goodson right end to GB 14 for 9 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 29-X.McKinney). PENALTY on DAL-19-R.Flournoy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 23 - No Play.
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at GB 33 - No Play. Play 1822 (2:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at GB 33 - No Play.
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 2-B.Cisse at GB 18. 2-B.Cisse ran ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (3-G.Pickens). Play 1853 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 2-B.Cisse at GB 18. 2-B.Cisse ran ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (3-G.Pickens).
Q201:50 (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.Kraft. Play 1885 (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.Kraft.
Q201:45 (1:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at GB 32 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to GB 32 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs). GB-85-T.Kraft was injured during the play. Play 1908 (1:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at GB 32 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to GB 32 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs). GB-85-T.Kraft was injured during the play.
Q201:39 Timeout #1 by GB at 01:39. Play 1999 Timeout #1 by GB at 01:39.
Q201:39 (1:39) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong up the middle to GB 34 for 2 yards (14-M.Bell). Play 1938 (1:39) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong up the middle to GB 34 for 2 yards (14-M.Bell).
Q201:22 (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 22-P.Strong to GB 36 for 2 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 2016 (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 22-P.Strong to GB 36 for 2 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q201:04 (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 9-C.Watson (26-D.Bland). Play 2041 (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 9-C.Watson (26-D.Bland).
Q201:01 (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 16-B.Melton (25-J.Porter). PENALTY on DAL-25-J.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at GB 36 - No Play. Play 2064 (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 16-B.Melton (25-J.Porter). PENALTY on DAL-25-J.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at GB 36 - No Play.
Q200:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right tackle to DAL 23 for 4 yards (50-S.James). Play 2098 (:53) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right tackle to DAL 23 for 4 yards (50-S.James).
Q200:46 Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:46. Play 2132 Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:46.
Q200:46 (:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (23-A.Speed). Play 2120 (:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (23-A.Speed).
Q200:42 (:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden to DAL 2 for 21 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 2162 (:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden to DAL 2 for 21 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q200:28 Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:28. Play 2199 Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:28.
Q200:28 (:28) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass Interference, 1 yard, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play. Play 2187 (:28) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass Interference, 1 yard, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play.
Q200:25 (:25) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2228 (:25) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q200:23 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 2251 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q200:23 28-T.Smack kicks 63 yards from GB 35 to DAL 2. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 27 for 25 yards (16-B.Melton). Play 2266 28-T.Smack kicks 63 yards from GB 35 to DAL 2. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 27 for 25 yards (16-B.Melton).
Q200:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 33 for 6 yards (7-J.Bullard). Play 2296 (:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 33 for 6 yards (7-J.Bullard).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2321 Q315:00 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to GB 0. 87-J.Sturdivant to GB 24 for 24 yards (43-J.Thomas; 23-A.Speed). Play 2341 17-B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to GB 0. 87-J.Sturdivant to GB 24 for 24 yards (43-J.Thomas; 23-A.Speed).
Q314:55 (14:55) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left. ** Injury Update: GB-85-T.Kraft has returned to the game. PENALTY on GB-75-S.Rhyan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play. Play 2364 (14:55) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left. ** Injury Update: GB-85-T.Kraft has returned to the game. PENALTY on GB-75-S.Rhyan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play.
Q314:52 (14:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft. Play 2398 (14:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft.
Q314:46 (14:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 83-S.Williams to GB 17 for 3 yards (50-S.James). Play 2440 (14:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 83-S.Williams to GB 17 for 3 yards (50-S.James).
Q314:07 (14:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 9-C.Watson. Play 2465 (14:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 9-C.Watson.
Q314:01 (14:01) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to DAL 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo ran ob at GB 46 for 16 yards (59-T.Hopper). Play 2488 (14:01) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to DAL 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo ran ob at GB 46 for 16 yards (59-T.Hopper).
Q313:51 (13:51) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens. Play 2519 (13:51) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens.
Q313:46 (13:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to GB 45 for 1 yard (29-X.McKinney). Play 2542 (13:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to GB 45 for 1 yard (29-X.McKinney).
Q313:08 (13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end to GB 38 for 7 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 2567 (13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end to GB 38 for 7 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q312:25 (12:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to GB 21 for 17 yards (2-B.Cisse). Play 2589 (12:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to GB 21 for 17 yards (2-B.Cisse).
Q311:53 (11:53) 33-J.Williams right tackle to GB 17 for 4 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 2614 (11:53) 33-J.Williams right tackle to GB 17 for 4 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q311:19 (11:19) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford to GB 11 for 6 yards (55-C.McClellan). Play 2636 (11:19) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford to GB 11 for 6 yards (55-C.McClellan).
Q310:42 (10:42) 33-J.Williams up the middle to GB 3 for 8 yards (59-T.Hopper). Play 2661 (10:42) 33-J.Williams up the middle to GB 3 for 8 yards (59-T.Hopper).
Q310:04 (10:04) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to GB 1 for 2 yards (95-D.Wyatt; 29-X.McKinney). Play 2683 (10:04) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to GB 1 for 2 yards (95-D.Wyatt; 29-X.McKinney).
Q309:24 (9:24) 77-B.Jones reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2705 (9:24) 77-B.Jones reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q309:19 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. Play 2730 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q309:19 17-B.Aubrey kicks 60 yards from DAL 35 to GB 5. 87-J.Sturdivant to GB 32 for 27 yards (43-J.Thomas). Play 2745 17-B.Aubrey kicks 60 yards from DAL 35 to GB 5. 87-J.Sturdivant to GB 32 for 27 yards (43-J.Thomas).
Q309:14 (9:14) 22-P.Strong left tackle to GB 34 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 2775 (9:14) 22-P.Strong left tackle to GB 34 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q308:55 (8:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 22-P.Strong pushed ob at GB 40 for 6 yards (55-J.Barham). Play 2797 (8:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 22-P.Strong pushed ob at GB 40 for 6 yards (55-J.Barham).
Q308:22 (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to GB 49 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 2827 (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to GB 49 for 9 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q307:45 (7:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden. Play 2852 (7:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden.
Q307:41 (7:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 22-P.Strong to DAL 44 for 7 yards (50-S.James). Play 2875 (7:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 22-P.Strong to DAL 44 for 7 yards (50-S.James).
Q306:59 (6:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Porter). Play 2900 (6:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Porter).
Q306:52 Timeout #1 by GB at 06:52. Play 2935 Timeout #1 by GB at 06:52.
Q306:52 (6:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to DAL 30 for 14 yards (13-C.Downs). Play 2923 (6:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to DAL 30 for 14 yards (13-C.Downs).
Q306:06 (6:06) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to DAL 26 for 4 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku). Play 2955 (6:06) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to DAL 26 for 4 yards (6-D.Ezeiruaku).
Q305:21 (5:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 9-C.Watson (57-M.Lawrence). Play 2977 (5:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 9-C.Watson (57-M.Lawrence).
Q305:13 (5:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Kraft (92-Q.Williams). Play 3000 (5:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Kraft (92-Q.Williams).
Q305:06 (5:06) 28-T.Smack 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 3023 (5:06) 28-T.Smack 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q305:02 28-T.Smack kicks 63 yards from GB 35 to DAL 2. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 32 for 30 yards (53-A.Mosby; 59-T.Hopper). Play 3043 28-T.Smack kicks 63 yards from GB 35 to DAL 2. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 32 for 30 yards (53-A.Mosby; 59-T.Hopper).
Q304:54 (4:54) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 43 for 11 yards (25-K.Nixon) [99-B.Sorrell]. Play 3073 (4:54) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 43 for 11 yards (25-K.Nixon) [99-B.Sorrell].
Q304:12 (4:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb ran ob at DAL 46 for 3 yards. Play 3098 (4:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb ran ob at DAL 46 for 3 yards.
Q303:43 (3:43) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 32-T.Goodson. Play 3128 (3:43) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 32-T.Goodson.
Q303:39 (3:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 3-G.Pickens [33-E.Williams]. Play 3151 (3:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 3-G.Pickens [33-E.Williams].
Q303:35 (3:35) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 46 - No Play. Play 3174 (3:35) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 46 - No Play.
Q303:35 (3:35) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen. Play 3202 (3:35) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen.
Q303:29 (3:29) 32-M.Lloyd left guard to GB 8 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia). Play 3222 (3:29) 32-M.Lloyd left guard to GB 8 for 2 yards (91-O.Ogbonnia).
Q302:47 (2:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to GB 14 for 6 yards (28-S.Revel). Play 3251 (2:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to GB 14 for 6 yards (28-S.Revel).
Q302:08 (2:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 4 for -10 yards (97-K.Clark). Play 3276 (2:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 4 for -10 yards (97-K.Clark).
Q301:23 (1:23) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to DAL 41, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo to DAL 45 for 4 yards (59-T.Hopper; 87-J.Sturdivant). PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 41. Play 3296 (1:23) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to DAL 41, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo to DAL 45 for 4 yards (59-T.Hopper; 87-J.Sturdivant). PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 41.
Q301:11 (1:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott Aborted. 56-C.Beebe FUMBLES at DAL 28, recovered by DAL-87-J.Ferguson at DAL 28. Play 3333 (1:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott Aborted. 56-C.Beebe FUMBLES at DAL 28, recovered by DAL-87-J.Ferguson at DAL 28.
Q300:40 (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 35 for 7 yards (33-E.Williams). Play 3368 (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 35 for 7 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q300:10 (:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb. Penalty on DAL-60-T.Guyton, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at DAL 35 - No Play. Penalty on GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton, Taunting, offsetting. Play 3405 (:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb. Penalty on DAL-60-T.Guyton, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at DAL 35 - No Play. Penalty on GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton, Taunting, offsetting.
Q300:04 (:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 42 for 7 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 3439 (:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 42 for 7 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3464 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 45 for 3 yards (58-I.McDuffie) [99-B.Sorrell]. Play 3484 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 45 for 3 yards (58-I.McDuffie) [99-B.Sorrell].
Q414:16 (14:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford to 50 for 5 yards (58-I.McDuffie). Play 3509 (14:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford to 50 for 5 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
Q413:37 (13:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb. Play 3534 (13:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.
Q413:33 (13:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb (7-J.Bullard). Play 3557 (13:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb (7-J.Bullard).
Q413:30 (13:30) 26-K.Johnson right tackle to GB 49 for -2 yards (40-V.Miller). Play 3580 (13:30) 26-K.Johnson right tackle to GB 49 for -2 yards (40-V.Miller).
Q412:54 (12:54) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden ran ob at DAL 30 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell) [13-C.Downs]. Play 3609 (12:54) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden ran ob at DAL 30 for 21 yards (14-M.Bell) [13-C.Downs].
Q412:19 (12:19) 22-P.Strong left guard to DAL 25 for 5 yards (97-K.Clark; 93-E.Garcia). Play 3639 (12:19) 22-P.Strong left guard to DAL 25 for 5 yards (97-K.Clark; 93-E.Garcia).
Q411:37 (11:37) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 0-M.Golden (26-D.Bland) [7-R.Gary]. Play 3661 (11:37) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 0-M.Golden (26-D.Bland) [7-R.Gary].
Q411:30 (11:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden ran ob at DAL 13 for 12 yards [7-R.Gary]. Play 3725 (11:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden ran ob at DAL 13 for 12 yards [7-R.Gary].
Q410:55 (10:55) 22-P.Strong up the middle to DAL 11 for 2 yards (13-C.Downs; 43-J.Thomas). Play 3755 (10:55) 22-P.Strong up the middle to DAL 11 for 2 yards (13-C.Downs; 43-J.Thomas).
Q410:18 (10:18) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right. Play 3777 (10:18) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right.
Q410:14 (10:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden. Play 3800 (10:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden.
Q410:10 (10:10) 28-T.Smack 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. Play 3823 (10:10) 28-T.Smack 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q410:06 28-T.Smack kicks 60 yards from GB 35 to DAL 5. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 29 for 24 yards (36-K.Hadden). Play 3843 28-T.Smack kicks 60 yards from GB 35 to DAL 5. 32-T.Goodson to DAL 29 for 24 yards (36-K.Hadden).
Q410:01 (10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 3-G.Pickens [51-D.Dennis-Sutton]. Play 3873 (10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 3-G.Pickens [51-D.Dennis-Sutton].
Q409:56 (9:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 36 for 7 yards (25-K.Nixon; 57-B.Cox). PENALTY on DAL-33-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play. Play 3896 (9:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 36 for 7 yards (25-K.Nixon; 57-B.Cox). PENALTY on DAL-33-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play.
Q409:26 (9:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens. Dallas challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 3932 (9:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens. Dallas challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q409:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 29 for 10 yards (7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 19 - No Play. Play 3955 (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 29 for 10 yards (7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 19 - No Play.
Q409:01 (9:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 35 for 11 yards (93-A.Campbell). Play 4038 (9:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to DAL 35 for 11 yards (93-A.Campbell).
Q408:35 (8:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford to DAL 46 for 11 yards (44-Z.Franklin). Play 4063 (8:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford to DAL 46 for 11 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q408:14 (8:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy. Play 4088 (8:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy.
Q408:09 (8:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens ran ob at GB 43 for 11 yards (2-B.Cisse). GB-2-B.Cisse was injured during the play. Play 4111 (8:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens ran ob at GB 43 for 11 yards (2-B.Cisse). GB-2-B.Cisse was injured during the play.
Q407:44 (7:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 18-J.Mingo INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine at GB 34. 24-C.Valentine to DAL 45 for 21 yards (60-T.Guyton). PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at GB 43 - No Play. Play 4144 (7:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 18-J.Mingo INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine at GB 34. 24-C.Valentine to DAL 45 for 21 yards (60-T.Guyton). PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at GB 43 - No Play.
Q407:36 (7:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens (24-C.Valentine). Play 4182 (7:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens (24-C.Valentine).
Q407:33 (7:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (7-J.Bullard). Play 4205 (7:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (7-J.Bullard).
Q407:27 (7:27) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-95-D.Wyatt, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at GB 28 - No Play. Play 4228 (7:27) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-95-D.Wyatt, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at GB 28 - No Play.
Q407:27 (7:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to GB 23 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie). Play 4252 (7:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to GB 23 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie).
Q406:43 (6:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to GB 12 for 11 yards (24-C.Valentine; 7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 12. Play 4277 (6:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to GB 12 for 11 yards (24-C.Valentine; 7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 12.
Q406:28 (6:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy. PENALTY on GB-94-K.Brooks, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at GB 27 - No Play. Play 4313 (6:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy. PENALTY on GB-94-K.Brooks, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at GB 27 - No Play.
Q406:24 (6:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at GB 16 for -3 yards (90-L.Van Ness). Play 4347 (6:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at GB 16 for -3 yards (90-L.Van Ness).
Q405:57 (5:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb. Play 4367 (5:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.
Q405:53 (5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 30-H.Luepke to GB 14 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 4390 (5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 30-H.Luepke to GB 14 for 2 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q405:05 (5:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb. Play 4415 (5:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.
Q405:00 (5:00) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 17 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham). Play 4438 (5:00) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 17 for 2 yards (55-J.Barham).
Q404:55 Timeout #2 by DAL at 04:55. Play 4479 Timeout #2 by DAL at 04:55.
Q404:55 (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to GB 25 for 8 yards (28-S.Revel). Play 4467 (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft to GB 25 for 8 yards (28-S.Revel).
Q404:49 Timeout #3 by DAL at 04:49. Play 4511 Timeout #3 by DAL at 04:49.
Q404:49 (4:49) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 28 for 3 yards (28-S.Revel; 97-K.Clark). Play 4499 (4:49) (Shotgun) 32-M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 28 for 3 yards (28-S.Revel; 97-K.Clark).
Q404:03 (4:03) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to GB 29 for 1 yard (26-D.Bland; 13-C.Downs). Play 4528 (4:03) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle to GB 29 for 1 yard (26-D.Bland; 13-C.Downs).
Q403:15 Timeout #2 by GB at 03:15. Play 4562 Timeout #2 by GB at 03:15.
Q403:15 (3:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 22-P.Strong. Play 4550 (3:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 22-P.Strong.
Q403:11 (3:11) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo pushed ob at DAL 22 for 2 yards (87-J.Sturdivant). Play 4580 (3:11) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo pushed ob at DAL 22 for 2 yards (87-J.Sturdivant).
Q403:01 (3:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 31 for 9 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 4620 (3:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 31 for 9 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q402:38 (2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford (59-T.Hopper). Play 4645 (2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford (59-T.Hopper).
Q402:35 (2:35) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 36 for 5 yards (7-J.Bullard; 44-Z.Franklin). Play 4668 (2:35) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 36 for 5 yards (7-J.Bullard; 44-Z.Franklin).
Q402:15 (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 44 for 8 yards (25-K.Nixon). Play 4690 (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 44 for 8 yards (25-K.Nixon).
Q402:10 (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 30-H.Luepke to DAL 49 for 5 yards (7-J.Bullard). Play 4720 (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 30-H.Luepke to DAL 49 for 5 yards (7-J.Bullard).
Q402:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Ferguson (7-J.Bullard). Play 4745 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Ferguson (7-J.Bullard).
Q401:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at GB 30 for 21 yards (24-C.Valentine). Play 4775 (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at GB 30 for 21 yards (24-C.Valentine).
Q401:47 (1:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to GB 27 for 3 yards (90-L.Van Ness). Play 4805 (1:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to GB 27 for 3 yards (90-L.Van Ness).
Q401:26 (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to GB 20 for 7 yards (24-C.Valentine). Play 4830 (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to GB 20 for 7 yards (24-C.Valentine).
Q401:08 (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 19-R.Flournoy. Play 4855 (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 19-R.Flournoy.
Q401:03 (1:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to GB 13 for 7 yards (24-C.Valentine). PENALTY on GB-33-E.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at GB 13. Play 4878 (1:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to GB 13 for 7 yards (24-C.Valentine). PENALTY on GB-33-E.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at GB 13.
Q400:58 (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 32-T.Goodson. Play 4914 (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 32-T.Goodson.
Q400:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4937 (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q400:44 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 88-C.Lamb is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Penalty on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 4963 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 88-C.Lamb is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Penalty on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q400:44 Timeout #3 by GB at 00:44. Play 5000 Timeout #3 by GB at 00:44.
Q400:44 17-B.Aubrey kicks onside 21 yards from DAL 35 to GB 44, out of bounds. Play 4987 17-B.Aubrey kicks onside 21 yards from DAL 35 to GB 44, out of bounds.
Q400:44 (:44) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 43 for -1 yards. Play 5010 (:44) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 43 for -1 yards.
Q400:25 (:25) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 42 for -1 yards. Play 5032 (:25) 10-J.Love kneels to GB 42 for -1 yards.
Elapsed share 0.06111111111111111
Game seconds remaining 3380
Half seconds remaining 1580
Quarter seconds remaining 680
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5651147256344328 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.56511/0.48566/0.52870 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:01 Penalty · GB (6:01) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB -1.94 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 7
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 7
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2161
Half seconds remaining 361
Quarter seconds remaining 361
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 2
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 2
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2161
Half seconds remaining 361
Quarter seconds remaining 361
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB -0.35 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 7
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 7
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2161
Half seconds remaining 361
Quarter seconds remaining 361
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 2
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 2
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2161
Half seconds remaining 361
Quarter seconds remaining 361
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:28 Penalty · DAL (6:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy. PENALTY on GB-94-K.Brooks, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at GB 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB -1.6 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 384
Half seconds remaining 384
Quarter seconds remaining 384
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 384
Half seconds remaining 384
Quarter seconds remaining 384
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB -1.25 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 13
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 384
Half seconds remaining 384
Quarter seconds remaining 384
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 384
Half seconds remaining 384
Quarter seconds remaining 384
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q104:39 Penalty · DAL (4:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-60-T.Guyton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB 1.29 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 73
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2979
Half seconds remaining 1179
Quarter seconds remaining 279
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2979
Half seconds remaining 1179
Quarter seconds remaining 279
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB 0.68 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 15
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 73
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2979
Half seconds remaining 1179
Quarter seconds remaining 279
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2979
Half seconds remaining 1179
Quarter seconds remaining 279
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q407:27 Penalty · DAL (7:27) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-95-D.Wyatt, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at GB 28 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB -0.64 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 447
Half seconds remaining 447
Quarter seconds remaining 447
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 28
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 447
Half seconds remaining 447
Quarter seconds remaining 447
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB -0.59 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 5
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 23
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 447
Half seconds remaining 447
Quarter seconds remaining 447
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 28
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Game seconds remaining 447
Half seconds remaining 447
Quarter seconds remaining 447
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q107:22 Penalty · GB (7:22) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DAL-97-K.Clark, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB 0.58 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3142
Half seconds remaining 1342
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 15
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3142
Half seconds remaining 1342
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB 0.85 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 10
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3142
Half seconds remaining 1342
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 15
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3142
Half seconds remaining 1342
Quarter seconds remaining 442
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q303:35 Penalty · DAL (3:35) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB 0.26 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 12
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1115
Half seconds remaining 1115
Quarter seconds remaining 215
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 7
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1115
Half seconds remaining 1115
Quarter seconds remaining 215
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence GB 0.34 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 12
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1115
Half seconds remaining 1115
Quarter seconds remaining 215
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 7
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 54
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 1115
Half seconds remaining 1115
Quarter seconds remaining 215
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:46 Fourth down · DAL (2:46) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to GB 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-C.Owen pushed ob at GB 41 for 16 yards (50-S.James). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.6635902273797275
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.2038888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2866
Half seconds remaining 1066
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 166
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3177085560789625 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.30182/ NA/0.31771 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:01 Fourth down · GB (14:01) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to DAL 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo ran ob at GB 46 for 16 yards (59-T.Hopper). + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 17
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.1901217832938362
Yardline 100 83
Elapsed share 0.5163888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 17
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1741
Half seconds remaining 1741
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 841
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8627527192942888 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82717/ NA/0.86275 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:25 Fourth down · DAL (12:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to GB 21 for 17 yards (2-B.Cisse). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.1708862558768774
Yardline 100 38
Elapsed share 0.5430555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -17
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1645
Half seconds remaining 1645
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 745
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1436244689395445 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14362/0.10977/0.11121 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:52 Fourth down · GB (6:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to DAL 30 for 14 yards (13-C.Downs). + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.1180370035682386
Yardline 100 44
Elapsed share 0.6355555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1312
Half seconds remaining 1312
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 412
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.8069160910680382 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.80692/0.76788/0.80030 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:06 Kick · GB (5:06) 28-T.Smack 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.104922332616983
Yardline 100 26
Elapsed share 0.665
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1206
Half seconds remaining 1206
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 306
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8414326931735459 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.83084/0.84143/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation GB 0.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 28 recorded events Q303:35 Fourth down · DAL (3:35) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.09483222484065193
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.6902777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1115
Half seconds remaining 1115
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 215
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.09528872707082499 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.09390/ NA/0.09529 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:33 Fourth down · DAL (13:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb (7-J.Bullard). + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.06779942542979452
Yardline 100 50
Elapsed share 0.7741666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q410:10 Kick · GB (10:10) 28-T.Smack 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.05410887199213668
Yardline 100 11
Elapsed share 0.8305555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q405:05 Fourth down · DAL (5:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb. + Fourth down decision cost DAL 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DAL
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.03855590538590785
Yardline 100 14
Elapsed share 0.9152777777777777
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 27.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DAL
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q403:11 Fourth down · GB (3:11) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo pushed ob at DAL 22 for 2 yards (87-J.Sturdivant). + Fourth down decision cost GB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.03396880519895926
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.9469444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q107:47 Penalty · GB (7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at DAL 9 for 37 yards (28-S.Revel). PENALTY on GB-0-M.Golden, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 9. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:28 Penalty · GB (7:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 83-S.Williams. PENALTY on GB-79-T.Glover, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:43 Kick · GB 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Extra point points above expectation GB 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q104:39 Penalty · DAL (4:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 33-J.Williams pushed ob at DAL 43 for 16 yards (29-X.McKinney). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:12 Penalty · GB (13:12) 10-J.Love scrambles left tackle to GB 40 for 8 yards (50-S.James). PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:37 Penalty · GB (10:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right end to DAL 25 for 13 yards (25-J.Porter). PENALTY on DAL-25-J.Porter, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 25. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:01 Kick · GB (6:01) 28-T.Smack 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Fourth down decision cost GB 1.21 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam GB
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team DAL
Home team GB
Away total 27.5
Home total 26
Total line 53.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.303181458199118
Yardline 100 7
Elapsed share 0.3997222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 26
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam GB
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q202:24 Penalty · DAL (2:24) 32-T.Goodson right end to GB 14 for 9 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 29-X.McKinney). PENALTY on DAL-19-R.Flournoy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 23 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Penalty · DAL (2:00) (Shotgun) PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at GB 33 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:01 Penalty · GB (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 16-B.Melton (25-J.Porter). PENALTY on DAL-25-J.Porter, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at GB 36 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:28 Penalty · GB (:28) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass Interference, 1 yard, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:23 Kick · GB 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. + Extra point points above expectation GB 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q314:55 Penalty · GB (14:55) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left. ** Injury Update: GB-85-T.Kraft has returned to the game. PENALTY on GB-75-S.Rhyan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q309:19 Kick · DAL 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. + Extra point points above expectation DAL 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:23 Penalty · GB (1:23) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to DAL 41, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo to DAL 45 for 4 yards (59-T.Hopper; 87-J.Sturdivant). PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 41. + Observed ruling consequence GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost GB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:11 Fumble · DAL (1:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott Aborted. 56-C.Beebe FUMBLES at DAL 28, recovered by DAL-87-J.Ferguson at DAL 28. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q300:10 Fourth down · DAL (:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb. Penalty on DAL-60-T.Guyton, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at DAL 35 - No Play. Penalty on GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton, Taunting, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:56 Penalty · DAL (9:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 36 for 7 yards (25-K.Nixon; 57-B.Cox). PENALTY on DAL-33-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q409:17 Penalty · DAL (9:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 29 for 10 yards (7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:44 Penalty · DAL (7:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 18-J.Mingo INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine at GB 34. 24-C.Valentine to DAL 45 for 21 yards (60-T.Guyton). PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at GB 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q406:43 Penalty · DAL (6:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to GB 12 for 11 yards (24-C.Valentine; 7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 12. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:03 Penalty · DAL (1:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to GB 13 for 7 yards (24-C.Valentine). PENALTY on GB-33-E.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at GB 13. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:44 Fourth down · DAL TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 88-C.Lamb is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Penalty on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence DAL Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-raw-pbp Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 4:11 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 4baa9e4a513fd71eccc16617460b79b2e7b2a42bd63d2538377246c7d73c9e45
nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 4:45 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 3c84c49602f50c48383cc21a07b7ab68a4c2672242911bd6ac50fe6178ff98cfModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 12ba3fa08f1ac62bacc6560e08b89e7ae0ccd7b127ab5ced2811aaf6c273aed5
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 4 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 4:50 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 19, 2026, 4:45 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 19, 2026, 4:15 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-13
Game seconds remaining 813
Half seconds remaining 813
Quarter seconds remaining 813
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1013216688065322 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10132/0.05252/0.06173 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
13
Game seconds remaining 610
Half seconds remaining 610
Quarter seconds remaining 610
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.9699786181502748 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96019/0.96998/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation GB 0.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
-16
Game seconds remaining 305
Half seconds remaining 305
Quarter seconds remaining 305
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.01326659813769514 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01327/0.01024/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
16
Game seconds remaining 191
Half seconds remaining 191
Quarter seconds remaining 191
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9974884083630131 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99733/ NA/0.99749 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 2161
Half seconds remaining 361
Quarter seconds remaining 361
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.7299127953342867 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72991/0.71783/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation GB 0.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled