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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: NO by 2.3; actual result: NO by 7.
The 4.7-point difference was matched or exceeded in 473 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 Combined penalty count: 17 versus 12.8 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 495 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: NO by 1.5; actual result: NO by 7. The difference was 5.5 points.
4,831 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin New Orleans Saints by 1.5
Final margin New Orleans Saints by 7
Difference 5.5 points
New Orleans Saints covered the spread.
4,831 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (66.4%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score NO by 2.3
Actual final margin NO by 7
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
New York Giants chance to win during the game 170 preplay estimates across 204 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 34 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 6 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 00:12 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 5058 (:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.
Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 9.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:13 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 5035 (:13) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 5.8 percentage points across this play.
Q3 · 06:11 Recorded game event
New Orleans Saints · Play 2903 (6:11) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 1 for no gain (8-J.Holland).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 0.8 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 204 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 204 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 10-D.Carlson kicks 39 yards from NO 35 to NYG 26, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NYG 40. Play 40 10-D.Carlson kicks 39 yards from NO 35 to NYG 26, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NYG 40.
Q115:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 38 for -2 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 78 (15:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 38 for -2 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q114:28 (14:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (99-C.Young). Play 103 (14:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (99-C.Young).
Q1 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 44 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q313:38 Penalty · NO (13:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -4.36 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1712
Half seconds remaining 1712
Quarter seconds remaining 812
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 f8f9feebec30adf67dd9a2d7bc88d102889e32fad0254a3caa3d845c8cbdae1eThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
473 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 495 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Alex Kemp Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.7 accepted penalties for 106.1 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 47.7 yd per game. Away teams: 6.7 / 58.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Alex Kemp; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape New York Giants · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
New York Giants · Opponent penalties Opponent NO was charged 7 penalties for 52 yards.
New Orleans Saints · Opponent penalties Opponent NYG was charged 10 penalties for 73 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 170 model estimates across 204 recorded game entries.
34 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (204 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence 1.05 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence 0.33 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -1.79 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -0.74 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -4.36 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -1.52 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -0.86 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -0.78 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -0.67 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -0.37 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence 0.02 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence 2.96 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -0.77 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -0.61 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Observed ruling consequence -0.15 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NYG Ruling expected points consequence -0.57 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36747/ NA/0.40885 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 2.32 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59539/0.54642/0.57218 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45908/0.37086/0.43393 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35532/ NA/0.36893 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35087/ NA/0.38000 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58366/ NA/0.62123 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36459/0.36808/0.35011 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.66233/0.67983/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0.74 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27940/0.27202/0.27420 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0.14 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47967/0.48102/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16421/ NA/0.16455 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0.16 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96223/0.96067/0.95645 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01270/ NA/0.01352 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0.33 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98294/ NA/0.97963 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99085/0.98785/0.99286 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost 1.06 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03020/0.01957/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NYG Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
NYG Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.37 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 28th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
NO Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.37 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 28th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
NYG Field goal points above expectation 0.5 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NO Field goal points above expectation -0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NYG Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
NO Extra point points above expectation 0.16 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 63rd percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
NYG Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 204 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
NO Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 204 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
NYG Presnap called penalties above expectation 3.57 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 5 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.21 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.38 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NYG Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.4 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
33 of 33 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 33 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
72 of 72 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 72 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.72 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
72 of 72 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 72 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.67 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 52 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.28 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
52 of 52 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 52 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q4 · 05:14 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 4278 (5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 16. 22-M.Emerson ran ob at NO 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 0.2 percentage points across this play.
Show 2 more plays Q4 · 01:06 Recorded game event
New Orleans Saints · Play 4873 (1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 08:29 Recorded game event
New York Giants · Play 3953 (8:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on NO-22-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NO awarded NYG a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.0 percentage points across this play.
14:22
(14:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely.
Play 126
(14:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely.
Q114:18 (14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 149 (14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q114:09 (14:09) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 41 for 2 yards (52-A.Reese). Play 180 (14:09) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 41 for 2 yards (52-A.Reese).
Q113:31 (13:31) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 203 (13:31) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q112:58 (12:58) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant. Play 225 (12:58) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.
Q112:55 (12:55) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NYG 44 for 4 yards (98-D.Reader). Play 248 (12:55) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NYG 44 for 4 yards (98-D.Reader).
Q112:12 (12:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (2-D.Banks). Play 270 (12:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (2-D.Banks).
Q112:08 (12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird. Play 293 (12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.
Q111:58 (11:58) 23-N.Harris up the middle to NYG 11 for 4 yards (99-C.Young; 20-P.Werner). Play 313 (11:58) 23-N.Harris up the middle to NYG 11 for 4 yards (99-C.Young; 20-P.Werner).
Q111:22 (11:22) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NYG 12 for 1 yard (20-P.Werner; 28-D.Stutsman). Play 342 (11:22) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NYG 12 for 1 yard (20-P.Werner; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q110:39 (10:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to NYG 23 for 11 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 364 (10:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely to NYG 23 for 11 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q110:03 (10:03) 17-D.Mooney right end pushed ob at NYG 43 for 20 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 389 (10:03) 17-D.Mooney right end pushed ob at NYG 43 for 20 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q109:29 (9:29) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Mooney (29-Q.Riley). Play 416 (9:29) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Mooney (29-Q.Riley).
Q109:24 (9:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at 50 for 7 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 439 (9:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 9-I.Likely pushed ob at 50 for 7 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q108:52 (8:52) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris right end to NO 48 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner). Play 469 (8:52) (Shotgun) 23-N.Harris right end to NO 48 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker; 20-P.Werner).
Q108:09 (8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 491 (8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q107:26 (7:26) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 9-I.Likely to NO 21 for 24 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 513 (7:26) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 9-I.Likely to NO 21 for 24 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q106:45 (6:45) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left guard to NO 17 for 4 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 538 (6:45) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left guard to NO 17 for 4 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q106:07 (6:07) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end to NO 17 for no gain (98-T.Wilson). Play 560 (6:07) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end to NO 17 for no gain (98-T.Wilson).
Q105:23 (5:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Play 582 (5:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan].
Q105:14 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 608 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q105:14 34-D.Zvada kicks 58 yards from NYG 35 to NO 7. 19-B.Brown to NO 32 for 25 yards (54-M.Harrison; 31-N.Jones). Play 623 34-D.Zvada kicks 58 yards from NYG 35 to NO 7. 19-B.Brown to NO 32 for 25 yards (54-M.Harrison; 31-N.Jones).
Q105:08 (5:08) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 37 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 653 (5:08) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 37 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q104:23 (4:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 39 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play. Play 675 (4:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 39 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play.
Q103:59 (3:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 45 for 18 yards (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play. Play 711 (3:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 45 for 18 yards (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play.
Q103:37 (3:37) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 5-K.Miller to NO 17 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds). Play 747 (3:37) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 5-K.Miller to NO 17 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds).
Q102:50 (2:50) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 14-D.Vele to NO 33 for 16 yards (24-A.Washington). Play 772 (2:50) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 14-D.Vele to NO 33 for 16 yards (24-A.Washington).
Q102:07 (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones. Play 797 (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.
Q102:00 (2:00) 23-N.Harris right end to NYG 8 for -6 yards (94-C.Jordan). Play 826 (2:00) 23-N.Harris right end to NYG 8 for -6 yards (94-C.Jordan).
Q101:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (20-P.Werner). Play 855 (1:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (20-P.Werner).
Q101:12 (1:12) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 8 for 0 yards (96-C.Granderson). Play 878 (1:12) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 8 for 0 yards (96-C.Granderson).
Q100:32 (:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes). Play 898 (:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes).
Q100:21 (:21) 43-C.Donaldson left guard to NO 44 for 3 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 8-J.Holland). Play 924 (:21) 43-C.Donaldson left guard to NO 44 for 3 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 8-J.Holland).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 946 Q215:00 (15:00) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 44 for no gain (24-A.Washington). Play 966 (15:00) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 44 for no gain (24-A.Washington).
Q214:23 (14:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (8-J.Holland). Play 988 (14:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (8-J.Holland).
Q214:20 (14:20) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. Play 1011 (14:20) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.
Q214:20 (14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson). Play 1039 (14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson).
Q214:08 (14:08) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 31 for 14 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 21-J.Reid). Play 1065 (14:08) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 31 for 14 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 21-J.Reid).
Q213:27 (13:27) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 34 for 3 yards (22-M.Emerson). Play 1097 (13:27) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 34 for 3 yards (22-M.Emerson).
Q212:46 (12:46) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 34 for 0 yards (99-C.Young). Play 1122 (12:46) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 34 for 0 yards (99-C.Young).
Q211:58 (11:58) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 33 for -1 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 1142 (11:58) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 33 for -1 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q211:21 (11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford). Play 1162 (11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford).
Q211:10 (11:10) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele. Play 1188 (11:10) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele.
Q211:05 (11:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to NO 27 for 3 yards (24-A.Washington). Play 1218 (11:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to NO 27 for 3 yards (24-A.Washington).
Q210:35 (10:35) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 34 for 7 yards (20-G.Newsome). Play 1243 (10:35) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 34 for 7 yards (20-G.Newsome).
Q210:05 (10:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left end to NO 36 for 2 yards (48-T.Ford; 22-A.Phillips). Play 1268 (10:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left end to NO 36 for 2 yards (48-T.Ford; 22-A.Phillips).
Q209:28 (9:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele. Play 1290 (9:28) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele.
Q209:21 (9:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles up the middle to NO 45 for 9 yards (22-A.Phillips). Play 1313 (9:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles up the middle to NO 45 for 9 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Q208:32 (8:32) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NYG 37 for 18 yards (22-A.Phillips). Play 1335 (8:32) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NYG 37 for 18 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Q207:54 (7:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara. NO-41-A.Kamara was injured during the play. Play 1365 (7:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 41-A.Kamara. NO-41-A.Kamara was injured during the play.
Q207:46 (7:46) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to NYG 37 for no gain (52-A.Reese). Play 1388 (7:46) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to NYG 37 for no gain (52-A.Reese).
Q206:59 (6:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance. Play 1413 (6:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance.
Q206:56 (6:56) 10-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 1436 (6:56) 10-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q206:51 (6:51) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NO 48 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 98-T.Wilson). Play 1460 (6:51) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NO 48 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 98-T.Wilson).
Q206:09 (6:09) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NO 46 for 2 yards (58-C.Rumph; 20-P.Werner). Play 1497 (6:09) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to NO 46 for 2 yards (58-C.Rumph; 20-P.Werner).
Q205:37 (5:37) 19-J.Winston up the middle to NO 44 for 2 yards (91-V.Broughton; 20-P.Werner). Play 1519 (5:37) 19-J.Winston up the middle to NO 44 for 2 yards (91-V.Broughton; 20-P.Werner).
Q204:57 (4:57) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 88-M.Fields (28-D.Stutsman). Play 1541 (4:57) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 88-M.Fields (28-D.Stutsman).
Q204:54 (4:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. Play 1564 (4:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.
Q204:54 (4:54) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NO 31 for 18 yards (94-C.Jordan). Play 1588 (4:54) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NO 31 for 18 yards (94-C.Jordan).
Q204:17 (4:17) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NO 29 for 2 yards (96-C.Granderson; 21-J.Reid). Play 1618 (4:17) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NO 29 for 2 yards (96-C.Granderson; 21-J.Reid).
Q203:39 (3:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NO 35 for -6 yards (91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on NO-91-V.Broughton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play. Play 1640 (3:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NO 35 for -6 yards (91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on NO-91-V.Broughton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play.
Q203:18 (3:18) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy left end to NO 16 for -2 yards (22-M.Emerson). Play 1672 (3:18) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy left end to NO 16 for -2 yards (22-M.Emerson).
Q202:39 (2:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Fields. Play 1694 (2:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Fields.
Q202:35 (2:35) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers. Play 1717 (2:35) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers.
Q202:30 (2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 1740 (2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q202:27 34-D.Zvada kicks 62 yards from NYG 35 to NO 3. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 44 for 41 yards (24-A.Washington). Play 1760 34-D.Zvada kicks 62 yards from NYG 35 to NO 3. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 44 for 41 yards (24-A.Washington).
Q202:20 (2:20) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 48 for 4 yards (20-G.Newsome; 98-D.Reader). ** Injury Update: NO-41-A.Kamara has returned to the game. Play 1795 (2:20) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 48 for 4 yards (20-G.Newsome; 98-D.Reader). ** Injury Update: NO-41-A.Kamara has returned to the game.
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (20-G.Newsome). Play 1817 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (20-G.Newsome).
Q201:57 (1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to NYG 40 for 12 yards (49-T.Edmunds). ** Injury Update: NO-43-C.Donaldson has returned to the game. Play 1850 (1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to NYG 40 for 12 yards (49-T.Edmunds). ** Injury Update: NO-43-C.Donaldson has returned to the game.
Q201:35 (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 43-C.Donaldson. Play 1875 (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 43-C.Donaldson.
Q201:30 (1:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Johnson (25-J.Pinnock). Play 1898 (1:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Johnson (25-J.Pinnock).
Q201:27 Timeout #1 by NYG at 01:27. Play 1933 Timeout #1 by NYG at 01:27.
Q201:27 (1:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 18-B.Lance. Play 1921 (1:27) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 18-B.Lance.
Q201:23 (1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 1951 (1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q201:18 10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (44-I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (44-I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-4-O.Delp at NYG 28. Play 1971 10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (44-I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (44-I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-4-O.Delp at NYG 28.
Q201:11 (1:11) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end to NYG 3 for 25 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 20-G.Newsome). Play 2017 (1:11) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end to NYG 3 for 25 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 20-G.Newsome).
Q200:51 Timeout #2 by NYG at 00:51. Play 2051 Timeout #2 by NYG at 00:51.
Q200:51 (:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough right end pushed ob at NYG 5 for -2 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 2039 (:51) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough right end pushed ob at NYG 5 for -2 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q200:45 (:45) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NYG 1 for 4 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). Play 2087 (:45) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NYG 1 for 4 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q200:39 Timeout #3 by NYG at 00:39. Play 2121 Timeout #3 by NYG at 00:39.
Q200:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 2 for -1 yards (98-D.Reader). Play 2109 (:39) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 2 for -1 yards (98-D.Reader).
Q200:05 Timeout #1 by NO at 00:05. Play 2150 Timeout #1 by NO at 00:05.
Q200:05 (:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2138 (:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q200:01 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 2171 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q200:01 10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NYG 35. Play 2186 10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NYG 35.
Q200:01 (:01) 19-J.Winston kneels to NYG 34 for -1 yards. Play 2203 (:01) 19-J.Winston kneels to NYG 34 for -1 yards.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2225 Q315:00 34-D.Zvada kicks 61 yards from NYG 35 to NO 4. 18-B.Lance to NO 21 for 17 yards (54-M.Harrison). Play 2245 34-D.Zvada kicks 61 yards from NYG 35 to NO 4. 18-B.Lance to NO 21 for 17 yards (54-M.Harrison).
Q314:54 (14:54) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 24 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 93-S.Harris). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 21 - No Play. Play 2273 (14:54) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 24 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 93-S.Harris). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 21 - No Play.
Q314:30 (14:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 4-O.Delp pushed ob at NO 24 for 8 yards (2-D.Banks). Play 2306 (14:30) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 4-O.Delp pushed ob at NO 24 for 8 yards (2-D.Banks).
Q314:02 (14:02) 43-C.Donaldson right end ran ob at NO 41 for 17 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 2336 (14:02) 43-C.Donaldson right end ran ob at NO 41 for 17 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q313:38 (13:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41 - No Play. Play 2363 (13:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41 - No Play.
Q313:32 (13:32) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NYG 33 for 11 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 2397 (13:32) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NYG 33 for 11 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q313:08 (13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 31 for 2 yards (97-B.Jamison-Travis). Play 2419 (13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 31 for 2 yards (97-B.Jamison-Travis).
Q312:31 (12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2441 (12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q312:21 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 2467 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q312:21 10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 37 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24. Play 2482 10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 37 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24.
Q312:14 (12:14) 23-N.Harris right guard to NYG 16 for 2 yards (91-V.Broughton). Play 2523 (12:14) 23-N.Harris right guard to NYG 16 for 2 yards (91-V.Broughton).
Q311:38 (11:38) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely. Play 2545 (11:38) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 9-I.Likely.
Q311:34 (11:34) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-Q.Riley at NO 46. 29-Q.Riley ran ob at NYG 39 for 15 yards (88-M.Fields). Penalty on NO-94-C.Jordan, Defensive Offside, offsetting, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. Penalty on NYG-65-F.Mauigoa, Offensive Holding, offsetting. Play 2568 (11:34) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-Q.Riley at NO 46. 29-Q.Riley ran ob at NYG 39 for 15 yards (88-M.Fields). Penalty on NO-94-C.Jordan, Defensive Offside, offsetting, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. Penalty on NYG-65-F.Mauigoa, Offensive Holding, offsetting.
Q311:23 (11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-29-T.Tracy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. Play 2611 (11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-29-T.Tracy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play.
Q311:23 (11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-78-A.Thomas, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 11 - No Play. Play 2635 (11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-78-A.Thomas, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 11 - No Play.
Q311:23 (11:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 29-T.Tracy to NYG 16 for 10 yards (53-J.Ford). Play 2664 (11:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 29-T.Tracy to NYG 16 for 10 yards (53-J.Ford).
Q310:44 (10:44) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 48 for 23 yards (28-E.Campbell). Play 2689 (10:44) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 48 for 23 yards (28-E.Campbell).
Q310:32 (10:32) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 44 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds). Play 2720 (10:32) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 44 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
Q309:57 (9:57) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 33 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland; 93-S.Harris). Play 2749 (9:57) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 33 for 11 yards (8-J.Holland; 93-S.Harris).
Q309:20 (9:20) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 33 for no gain (52-A.Reese; 2-D.Banks). Play 2771 (9:20) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 33 for no gain (52-A.Reese; 2-D.Banks).
Q308:36 (8:36) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NYG 23 for 10 yards (2-D.Banks). Penalty on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Play 2793 (8:36) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NYG 23 for 10 yards (2-D.Banks). Penalty on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q308:12 (8:12) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NYG 15 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 2829 (8:12) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NYG 15 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q307:35 (7:35) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NYG 9 for 6 yards (97-B.Jamison-Travis). Play 2859 (7:35) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right guard to NYG 9 for 6 yards (97-B.Jamison-Travis).
Q306:55 (6:55) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 1 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland). Play 2881 (6:55) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NYG 1 for 8 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q306:11 (6:11) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 1 for no gain (8-J.Holland). Play 2903 (6:11) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 1 for no gain (8-J.Holland).
Q305:48 (5:48) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2953 (5:48) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q305:43 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 2976 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q305:43 10-D.Carlson kicks 64 yards from NO 35 to NYG 1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 26 yards (58-C.Rumph). Play 2991 10-D.Carlson kicks 64 yards from NO 35 to NYG 1. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 26 yards (58-C.Rumph).
Q305:37 (5:37) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 40 for 13 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 3026 (5:37) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 40 for 13 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q305:14 (5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Mooney. Play 3051 (5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Mooney.
Q305:09 (5:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NO 47 for 13 yards (22-M.Emerson). Play 3074 (5:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NO 47 for 13 yards (22-M.Emerson).
Q304:37 (4:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NO 37 for 10 yards (22-M.Emerson). Play 3099 (4:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NO 37 for 10 yards (22-M.Emerson).
Q304:23 (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 26. 22-M.Emerson pushed ob at NO 38 for 12 yards (1-M.Nabers). Play 3129 (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 26. 22-M.Emerson pushed ob at NO 38 for 12 yards (1-M.Nabers).
Q304:16 (4:16) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 42 for 4 yards (93-S.Harris). Play 3161 (4:16) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 42 for 4 yards (93-S.Harris).
Q303:35 (3:35) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 43 for 15 yards (31-N.Jones). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43. Play 3183 (3:35) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 43 for 15 yards (31-N.Jones). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43.
Q303:04 (3:04) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 4-O.Delp pushed ob at NYG 36 for 2 yards (24-A.Washington). Play 3216 (3:04) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 4-O.Delp pushed ob at NYG 36 for 2 yards (24-A.Washington).
Q302:32 (2:32) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 36 for no gain (5-K.Thibodeaux). Play 3246 (2:32) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 36 for no gain (5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q301:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NYG 32 for 4 yards (22-A.Phillips). Play 3268 (1:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NYG 32 for 4 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Q301:17 (1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 3298 (1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q301:12 10-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to NYG 6. 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at NYG 30 for 24 yards (43-C.Donaldson; 98-T.Wilson). Play 3318 10-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to NYG 6. 29-T.Tracy pushed ob at NYG 30 for 24 yards (43-C.Donaldson; 98-T.Wilson).
Q301:08 (1:08) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NYG 34 for 4 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 52-C.Miller). Play 3346 (1:08) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NYG 34 for 4 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 52-C.Miller).
Q300:44 (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Tracy. Play 3368 (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Tracy.
Q300:39 (:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (sack split by 96-C.Granderson and 99-C.Young). Play 3391 (:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (sack split by 96-C.Granderson and 99-C.Young).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3411 Q415:00 (15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden). Play 3435 (15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden).
Q414:50 (14:50) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 26 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader). Play 3466 (14:50) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 26 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader).
Q414:06 (14:06) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 29 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader). Play 3488 (14:06) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 29 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader).
Q413:24 (13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 19-B.Brown to NO 34 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 49-T.Edmunds). Play 3510 (13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 19-B.Brown to NO 34 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 49-T.Edmunds).
Q412:48 (12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones. Play 3535 (12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.
Q412:41 (12:41) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NYG 25 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson). Play 3555 (12:41) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at NYG 25 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson).
Q412:28 (12:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Blackmon at NYG 42. 23-J.Blackmon to NYG 21 for 21 yards (88-M.Fields). Play 3597 (12:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Blackmon at NYG 42. 23-J.Blackmon to NYG 21 for 21 yards (88-M.Fields).
Q412:19 (12:19) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NYG 18 for 3 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux; 2-D.Banks). Play 3628 (12:19) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NYG 18 for 3 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux; 2-D.Banks).
Q411:36 (11:36) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3655 (11:36) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q411:31 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 3681 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q411:31 10-D.Carlson kicks 58 yards from NO 35 to NYG 7. 29-T.Tracy to NYG 28 for 21 yards (4-O.Delp; 43-C.Donaldson). ** Injury Update: NYG-29-T.Tracy has returned to the game. Play 3696 10-D.Carlson kicks 58 yards from NO 35 to NYG 7. 29-T.Tracy to NYG 28 for 21 yards (4-O.Delp; 43-C.Donaldson). ** Injury Update: NYG-29-T.Tracy has returned to the game.
Q411:25 (11:25) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NYG 37 for 9 yards (28-D.Stutsman). Play 3726 (11:25) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NYG 37 for 9 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
Q411:03 (11:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to NO 44 for 19 yards (98-T.Wilson; 23-J.Blackmon). Play 3748 (11:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to NO 44 for 19 yards (98-T.Wilson; 23-J.Blackmon).
Q410:35 (10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Jones. Play 3773 (10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Jones.
Q410:31 (10:31) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields. Play 3796 (10:31) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields.
Q410:27 (10:27) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 37. 22-M.Emerson to NO 44 for 7 yards (88-M.Fields). Play 3819 (10:27) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 37. 22-M.Emerson to NO 44 for 7 yards (88-M.Fields).
Q410:22 (10:22) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to NYG 49 for 7 yards (25-J.Pinnock). Play 3846 (10:22) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to NYG 49 for 7 yards (25-J.Pinnock).
Q409:40 (9:40) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (25-J.Pinnock; 52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (25-J.Pinnock), RECOVERED by NYG-52-A.Reese at NYG 48. Play 3868 (9:40) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (25-J.Pinnock; 52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (25-J.Pinnock), RECOVERED by NYG-52-A.Reese at NYG 48.
Q409:31 (9:31) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to NO 47 for 5 yards (91-V.Broughton; 96-C.Granderson). Play 3909 (9:31) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to NO 47 for 5 yards (91-V.Broughton; 96-C.Granderson).
Q409:08 (9:08) (No Huddle) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NO 47 for no gain (96-C.Granderson; 91-V.Broughton). Play 3931 (9:08) (No Huddle) 29-T.Tracy right tackle to NO 47 for no gain (96-C.Granderson; 91-V.Broughton).
Q408:29 (8:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on NO-22-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play. Play 3953 (8:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on NO-22-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.
Q408:24 (8:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 13 for 27 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 23-J.Blackmon). Play 3990 (8:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 13 for 27 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 23-J.Blackmon).
Q407:43 (7:43) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 88-M.Fields to NO 5 for 8 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 4015 (7:43) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 88-M.Fields to NO 5 for 8 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q407:08 (7:08) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short middle to 1-M.Nabers (22-M.Emerson). NO-22-M.Emerson was injured during the play. Play 4040 (7:08) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short middle to 1-M.Nabers (22-M.Emerson). NO-22-M.Emerson was injured during the play.
Q407:04 (7:04) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4066 (7:04) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q407:00 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-J.McCarthy pass to 9-I.Likely is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 4101 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-J.McCarthy pass to 9-I.Likely is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q407:00 34-D.Zvada kicks onside 14 yards from NYG 35 to NYG 49. 83-J.Johnson (didn't try to advance) ran ob at NYG 49 for no gain. Play 4114 34-D.Zvada kicks onside 14 yards from NYG 35 to NYG 49. 83-J.Johnson (didn't try to advance) ran ob at NYG 49 for no gain.
Q406:59 (6:59) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NYG 49 for no gain (52-A.Reese). Play 4142 (6:59) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NYG 49 for no gain (52-A.Reese).
Q406:13 (6:13) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave. Play 4164 (6:13) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave.
Q406:08 (6:08) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Vele [3-A.Carter]. Play 4199 (6:08) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Vele [3-A.Carter].
Q406:03 (6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles). Play 4222 (6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles).
Q405:54 (5:54) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 89-C.Jones to NO 24 for 49 yards (29-Q.Riley). ** Injury Update: NO-22-M.Emerson has returned to the game. Play 4253 (5:54) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 89-C.Jones to NO 24 for 49 yards (29-Q.Riley). ** Injury Update: NO-22-M.Emerson has returned to the game.
Q405:14 (5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 16. 22-M.Emerson ran ob at NO 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). Play 4278 (5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 88-M.Fields INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Emerson at NO 16. 22-M.Emerson ran ob at NO 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson).
Q405:11 (5:11) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 9-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4355 (5:11) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 9-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q405:06 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-J.McCarthy pass to 1-M.Nabers is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 4381 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-J.McCarthy pass to 1-M.Nabers is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q405:06 34-D.Zvada kicks onside 14 yards from NYG 35 to NYG 49. 83-J.Johnson (didn't try to advance) to NYG 49 for no gain. Play 4394 34-D.Zvada kicks onside 14 yards from NYG 35 to NYG 49. 83-J.Johnson (didn't try to advance) to NYG 49 for no gain.
Q405:05 (5:05) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard to NYG 47 for 2 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 48-T.Ford). Play 4417 (5:05) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard to NYG 47 for 2 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 48-T.Ford).
Q405:01 Timeout #1 by NYG at 05:01. Play 4451 Timeout #1 by NYG at 05:01.
Q405:01 (5:01) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard to NYG 44 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 5-K.Thibodeaux). Play 4439 (5:01) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard to NYG 44 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q404:16 (4:16) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave. Play 4468 (4:16) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave.
Q404:13 (4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16. Play 4491 (4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16.
Q403:59 (3:59) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 88-M.Fields to NYG 19 for 11 yards (22-M.Emerson). Play 4544 (3:59) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 88-M.Fields to NYG 19 for 11 yards (22-M.Emerson).
Q403:34 (3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-M.Nabers ran ob at NYG 32 for 13 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 4569 (3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-M.Nabers ran ob at NYG 32 for 13 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q403:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-86-T.Fidone, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 32 - No Play. Play 4599 (3:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-86-T.Fidone, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 32 - No Play.
Q403:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 27 for 46 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 4623 (3:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 27 for 46 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q402:56 (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play. Play 4648 (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play.
Q402:56 (2:56) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy sacked at NO 40 for -8 yards (50-C.Wooden). Play 4672 (2:56) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy sacked at NO 40 for -8 yards (50-C.Wooden).
Q402:28 (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 89-C.Jones to NO 23 for 17 yards (22-M.Emerson). Play 4692 (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 89-C.Jones to NO 23 for 17 yards (22-M.Emerson).
Q402:09 (2:09) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4717 (2:09) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q402:08 (2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. Play 4740 (2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
Q402:04 34-D.Zvada kicks 70 yards from NYG 35 to NO -5. 18-B.Lance to NO 25 for 30 yards (51-J.Kelly). Play 4760 34-D.Zvada kicks 70 yards from NYG 35 to NO -5. 18-B.Lance to NO 25 for 30 yards (51-J.Kelly).
Q401:59 (1:59) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 26 for 1 yard (93-S.Harris; 5-K.Thibodeaux). Play 4786 (1:59) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 26 for 1 yard (93-S.Harris; 5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q401:55 Timeout #2 by NYG at 01:55. Play 4827 Timeout #2 by NYG at 01:55.
Q401:55 (1:55) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 31 for 5 yards (98-D.Reader). Play 4815 (1:55) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 31 for 5 yards (98-D.Reader).
Q401:51 Timeout #3 by NYG at 01:51. Play 4856 Timeout #3 by NYG at 01:51.
Q401:51 (1:51) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 32 for 1 yard (91-D.Alexander). Play 4844 (1:51) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 32 for 1 yard (91-D.Alexander).
Q401:06 Timeout #1 by NO at 01:06. Play 4885 Timeout #1 by NO at 01:06.
Q401:06 (1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39. Play 4873 (1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.
Q400:57 (:57) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy scrambles up the middle to NO 43 for 28 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 4917 (:57) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy scrambles up the middle to NO 43 for 28 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q400:41 (:41) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4939 (:41) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:40 (:40) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 9-I.Likely to NO 23 for 20 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 4962 (:40) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 9-I.Likely to NO 23 for 20 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q400:25 (:25) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4987 (:25) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 14 for 9 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 5010 (:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 14 for 9 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q400:13 (:13) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 5035 (:13) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:12 Timeout #2 by NO at 00:12. Play 5070 Timeout #2 by NO at 00:12.
Q400:12 (:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play. Play 5058 (:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.
Q400:06 (:06) 6-T.Shough kneels to NO 13 for -1 yards. Play 5091 (:06) 6-T.Shough kneels to NO 13 for -1 yards.
Down
2
Game seconds remaining 1712
Half seconds remaining 1712
Quarter seconds remaining 812
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -1.52 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1712
Half seconds remaining 1712
Quarter seconds remaining 812
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 59
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 1712
Half seconds remaining 1712
Quarter seconds remaining 812
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:08 Fourth down · NO (12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird. + Fourth down decision cost NO 2.32 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -1.239061201111191
Yardline 100 44
Elapsed share 0.04777777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3428
Half seconds remaining 1628
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 728
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5953860336314899 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59539/0.54642/0.57218 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:54 Penalty · NYG (4:54) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -1.79 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2094
Half seconds remaining 294
Quarter seconds remaining 294
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2094
Half seconds remaining 294
Quarter seconds remaining 294
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -0.74 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2094
Half seconds remaining 294
Quarter seconds remaining 294
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 7
Game seconds remaining 2094
Half seconds remaining 294
Quarter seconds remaining 294
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q214:20 Penalty · NO (14:20) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG 1.05 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 12
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 7
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 56
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG 0.33 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 12
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 61
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 7
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 56
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:23 Penalty · NYG (11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-29-T.Tracy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -0.86 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 13
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1583
Half seconds remaining 1583
Quarter seconds remaining 683
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 8
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1583
Half seconds remaining 1583
Quarter seconds remaining 683
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -0.78 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 13
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1583
Half seconds remaining 1583
Quarter seconds remaining 683
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 8
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 84
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1583
Half seconds remaining 1583
Quarter seconds remaining 683
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q403:29 Penalty · NYG (3:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-86-T.Fidone, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 32 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -0.77 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 73
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 209
Half seconds remaining 209
Quarter seconds remaining 209
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 209
Half seconds remaining 209
Quarter seconds remaining 209
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -0.61 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 73
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 209
Half seconds remaining 209
Quarter seconds remaining 209
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 68
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 209
Half seconds remaining 209
Quarter seconds remaining 209
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q311:23 Penalty · NYG (11:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-78-A.Thomas, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -0.67 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 18
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1583
Half seconds remaining 1583
Quarter seconds remaining 683
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 13
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1583
Half seconds remaining 1583
Quarter seconds remaining 683
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -0.37 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 18
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 94
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1583
Half seconds remaining 1583
Quarter seconds remaining 683
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 13
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 89
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 1583
Half seconds remaining 1583
Quarter seconds remaining 683
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q412:48 Fourth down · NO (12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0.33 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.06449280843306253
Yardline 100 66
Elapsed share 0.7866666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 17
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 768
Half seconds remaining 768
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 768
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9829375762955029 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98294/ NA/0.97963 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:56 Penalty · NYG (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-71-M.Mbow, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG -0.15 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 176
Half seconds remaining 176
Quarter seconds remaining 176
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 176
Half seconds remaining 176
Quarter seconds remaining 176
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG -0.57 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 32
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 176
Half seconds remaining 176
Quarter seconds remaining 176
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 27
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Game seconds remaining 176
Half seconds remaining 176
Quarter seconds remaining 176
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q408:29 Penalty · NYG (8:29) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Fields (22-M.Emerson). PENALTY on NO-22-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG 0.02 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 504
Half seconds remaining 504
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 5
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 504
Half seconds remaining 504
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NYG 2.96 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 10
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 40
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 504
Half seconds remaining 504
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 5
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 47
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -24
Game seconds remaining 504
Half seconds remaining 504
Quarter seconds remaining 504
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q114:18 Fourth down · NYG (14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese). + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -1.43160821960047
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.01166666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3558
Half seconds remaining 1758
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4088541381489128 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36747/ NA/0.40885 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q108:09 Fourth down · NYG (8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner). + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.9500871530350627
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.1141666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3189
Half seconds remaining 1389
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 489
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4590777344535187 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45908/0.37086/0.43393 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 32 recorded events Q102:07 Fourth down · NO (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.63544878557572
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.2147222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -7
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2827
Half seconds remaining 1027
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3689327694726672 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35532/ NA/0.36893 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:20 Fourth down · NO (14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.5278308870084701
Yardline 100 61
Elapsed share 0.2611111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q211:21 Fourth down · NYG (11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford). + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.4326318146767781
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.3108333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q206:56 Kick · NO (6:56) 10-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.3222870504044477
Yardline 100 37
Elapsed share 0.3844444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q202:30 Kick · NYG (2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.2398196191195409
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.4583333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q310:44 Fourth down · NYG (10:44) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 48 for 23 yards (28-E.Campbell). + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.1527459284410215
Yardline 100 84
Elapsed share 0.5711111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q415:00 Fourth down · NYG (15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden). + Fourth down decision cost NYG 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.07468060255179591
Yardline 100 75
Elapsed share 0.75
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q406:03 Fourth down · NO (6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.04112243023407076
Yardline 100 49
Elapsed share 0.8991666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q115:00 Penalty · NYG 10-D.Carlson kicks 39 yards from NO 35 to NYG 26, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at NYG 40. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q105:14 Kick · NYG 34-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Extra point points above expectation NYG 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q104:23 Penalty · NO (4:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 39 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 37 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:59 Penalty · NO (3:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 45 for 18 yards (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 27 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:32 Fourth down · NYG (:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes). + Fourth down decision cost NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:39 Penalty · NYG (3:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at NO 35 for -6 yards (91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on NO-91-V.Broughton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:23 Kick · NO (1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0.74 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.2226147300342035
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.4769444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q201:18 Fumble · NYG 10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 27 for 22 yards (44-I.Stalbird). FUMBLES (44-I.Stalbird), RECOVERED by NO-4-O.Delp at NYG 28. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q200:05 Fourth down · NO (:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0.14 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.2041338574525529
Yardline 100 2
Elapsed share 0.4986111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q200:01 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q314:54 Penalty · NO (14:54) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 24 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader; 93-S.Harris). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NO 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:21 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q312:21 Penalty · NYG 10-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to NYG 5. 89-C.Jones to NYG 37 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-85-C.Manhertz, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q311:34 Fourth down · NYG (11:34) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 17-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-Q.Riley at NO 46. 29-Q.Riley ran ob at NYG 39 for 15 yards (88-M.Fields). Penalty on NO-94-C.Jordan, Defensive Offside, offsetting, enforced at NYG 16 - No Play. Penalty on NYG-65-F.Mauigoa, Offensive Holding, offsetting. + Observed ruling consequence NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:36 Fourth down · NO (8:36) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to NYG 23 for 10 yards (2-D.Banks). Penalty on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:43 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q303:35 Penalty · NO (3:35) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NYG 43 for 15 yards (31-N.Jones). PENALTY on NYG-31-N.Jones, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 43. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:17 Kick · NO (1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0.16 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.0813512291248743
Yardline 100 32
Elapsed share 0.7286111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q411:31 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.16 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q409:40 Fumble · NO (9:40) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (25-J.Pinnock; 52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (25-J.Pinnock), RECOVERED by NYG-52-A.Reese at NYG 48. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NYG 0.37 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NO -0.37 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q404:13 Penalty · NO (4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:08 Kick · NYG (2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. + Fourth down decision cost NYG 1.06 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NYG
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team NO
Home team NYG
Away total 24
Home total 22.5
Total line 46.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -1.5
Spread time -0.03167230403709866
Yardline 100 23
Elapsed share 0.9644444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam NYG
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q401:06 Penalty · NO (1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:12 Fourth down · NYG (:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play. + Fourth down decision cost NYG Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
nflverse-pbp Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:07 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 96d226ca2600b585577adaa1e8fbaec824c028593442c63b83d7f264f6745378
nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:55 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e1bea02e4593487222e04192cfe6ba265c792b193fbc38ad2e98db5a53b235a8Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 699a12f945addf53cb1bacecbe938f3802db934dd2c493f1858fd9f2b047b552
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 4 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 10:06 PM UTC Version 3 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:39 PM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 18, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 2660
Half seconds remaining 860
Quarter seconds remaining 860
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3799992728925243 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.35087/ NA/0.38000 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
7
Game seconds remaining 2481
Half seconds remaining 681
Quarter seconds remaining 681
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.621230198408104 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.58366/ NA/0.62123 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-7
Game seconds remaining 2216
Half seconds remaining 416
Quarter seconds remaining 416
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.3680796578540322 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36459/0.36808/0.35011 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NO -0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
7
Game seconds remaining 1950
Half seconds remaining 150
Quarter seconds remaining 150
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.679828497935707 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.66233/0.67983/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG 0.5 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 1544
Half seconds remaining 1544
Quarter seconds remaining 644
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1645498880922381 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.16421/ NA/0.16455 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-17
Game seconds remaining 900
Half seconds remaining 900
Quarter seconds remaining 900
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.01351991971681236 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.01270/ NA/0.01352 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
16
Game seconds remaining 363
Half seconds remaining 363
Quarter seconds remaining 363
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.992855133590373 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.99085/0.98785/0.99286 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-10
Game seconds remaining 1883
Quarter seconds remaining 83
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2794017270415653 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.27940/0.27202/0.27420 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NO -0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
-7
Game seconds remaining 1805
Quarter seconds remaining 5
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4810244424884433 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47967/0.48102/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
14
Game seconds remaining 977
Half seconds remaining 977
Quarter seconds remaining 77
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.9622251054721592 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96223/0.96067/0.95645 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NO -0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-10
Game seconds remaining 128
Half seconds remaining 128
Quarter seconds remaining 128
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.03020017425646689 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.03020/0.01957/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation NYG 0.5 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled