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FINAL SCORE

New York Jets at New England Patriots

NYJ 19—NE 26

✓ Analysis completeUpdated Oct 18, 2026, 9:16 PM UTC

GAME RATING

Fair

1 / 5

Fair
Debatable
Hmm
Sus
RIGGED?

The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

How this rating was calculated

Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

Result versus box score

Fair · 1/5

Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: NE by 0.6; actual result: NE by 7.

The 6.4-point difference was matched or exceeded in 360 of 816 earlier comparison games.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalty pattern

Fair · 1/5

NE minus NYJ penalty-yard difference: 22 versus -0.7 expected.

The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 664 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Result versus spread

Fair · 1/5

Recorded spread: NE by 7.5; actual result: NE by 7. The difference was 0.5 points.

7,081 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalties extending one drive

Fair · 1/5

No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.

The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.

The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.

Rating thresholds

Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.

Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.

Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.

Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.

RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.

Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.

These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.

Full methodology ↗

Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Actual team statistics for NYJ at NE
Game statistic	NYJLOSS	NEWIN
Points scored	19	26
Total offensive yards	324	383
Penalties	5	5
Penalty yards	35	57
Turnover margin	+1	-1
Non-offensive touchdowns	0	0

Spread vs. result

Within the usual range

Expected marginNew England Patriots by 7.5

Final marginNew England Patriots by 7

Difference0.5 points

New York Jets covered the spread.

7,081 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (97.3%).

Where this comparison comes from

The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.

The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.

View the source data ↗

Did the score fit the performance?

Yardage + turnovers

Expected from the box scoreNE by 0.6

Actual final marginNE by 7

HOW THE GAME MOVED

Game momentum

New England Patriots chance to win · vs. New York JetsBefore-play estimates

DIG INTO THE NUMBERSDetailed analysis by categoryOfficiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution.

Impact of officiating decisions

How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.

NYJObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:321

NYJObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Intervening state change

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Fan feedback

Loading fan feedback…

Notable plays 3

These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.

Q1 · 08:34Recorded game event

New York Jets · Play 321

(8:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-O.Cooper for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYJ-17-T.Patrick, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NE 14 - No Play.

A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified.

Estimated chance to win moved 3.0 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q1 · 04:22Recorded game event

New England Patriots · Play 629

(4:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 1-A.Brown to NYJ 33 for 9 yards (2-J.Brownlee). New York Jets challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 1-A.Brown.

Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately.

Estimated chance to win moved 1.6 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play

Q4 · 01:14Recorded game event

New England Patriots · Play 4070

(1:14) (Run formation) PENALTY on NE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 4 - No Play.

Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.

THE UNDERLYING RECORD

Source plays 174

Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.

Browse all 174 source plays

Q115:00GAMEPlay 1

GAME

Source play 1Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q115:008-A.Borregales kicks 58 yards from NE 35 to NYJ 7. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 28 for 21 yards (41-B.Schooler; 33-M.Brown).Play 41

8-A.Borregales kicks 58 yards from NE 35 to NYJ 7. 3-K.Nwangwu to NYJ 28 for 21 yards (41-B.Schooler; 33-M.Brown).

Source play 41Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q114:54(14:54) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 85-M.Taylor pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 9 yards (22-C.Woods).Play 64

(14:54) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 85-M.Taylor pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 9 yards (22-C.Woods).

Source play 64NE preplay win probability: 56.5%Link to source play ↗

Q114:22(14:22) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 39 for 2 yards (94-C.Durden; 25-M.Jones).Play 94

(14:22) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 39 for 2 yards (94-C.Durden; 25-M.Jones).

Source play 94NE preplay win probability: 54.1%Link to source play ↗

Q113:42(13:42) 0-B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 41 for 2 yards (5-Dr.Jones).

CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 30Optional calculations for individual plays.

Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.

Q100:33Penalty · NYJ(:33) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-74-O.Fashanu, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 37 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 898Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NE

3.5 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYJ
Ydstogo: 14
Away team: NYJ
Home team: NE
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 42
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -4
Game seconds remaining: 2733
Half seconds remaining: 933
Quarter seconds remaining: 33
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 1
Down: 2
Roof

ABOUT THIS REPORTData & report historySources, calculation notes and earlier versions.

Automatic analysis

Complete

Updates automatically when source data changes.

Source data

Early source data

The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.

Data limitations and calculation notes (3)

Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation.
Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent.
Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified.

Data sources

football-zebras

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright

Verify this snapshot

SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3b

ftn-via-nflverse

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0

Verify this snapshot

SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61

nflverse-schedules

View original data ↗

Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:20 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0

Verify this snapshot

SHA-256 f610acce860bc687edcf53fe89a37cfe073a60d7302023d2e956a9c356edd153

Were the penalties unusual?

Accepted penalties / yards

Actual penalties compared with league, team, opponent and referee expectations
Comparison	NYJ	NE
Actual	5 / 35 yd	5 / 57 yd
Expected for this matchup	6.4 / 51.1 yd	6 / 50.3 yd
League average	6 / 49.5 yd	6 / 49.5 yd
Team’s usual penalties	6.6 / 55.5 yd · 85 games	5.9 / 48.7 yd · 85 games
Opponent usually draws	5.6 / 43.1 yd · 85 games	5.4 / 48 yd · 85 games

The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 664 of 779 comparison games.

Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.

The referee: Clete Blakeman

Head official

Assignment: Football Zebras

In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.9 accepted penalties for 104.2 yards across both teams.

Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee	NYJ	NE
Games	7	4
Wins–losses–ties	2–5–0	2–2–0
Team penalties per game	7.1 / 60.6 yd	7.3 / 58 yd

Referee comparison details

Home teams: 6.4 / 51.9 yd per game. Away teams: 6.5 / 52.3 yd per game.

These are crew totals in games led by Clete Blakeman; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.

Historical coverage & audit method

14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons

Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1

Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385

Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.

View all chart data (174 entries)

New England Patriots chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Period	Clock	Source play	NE win chance	Estimate source
Q1	15:00	Play 1 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	15:00	Play 41 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	14:54	Play 64 ↗	56.5%	Regulation model
Q1	14:22	Play 94 ↗	54.1%	Regulation model
Q1	13:42	Play 116 ↗	54.5%	Regulation model
Q1	13:00	Play 138 ↗	56.3%	Regulation model
Q1	12:24	Play 163 ↗	52.0%	Regulation model
Q1	11:44	Play 188 ↗	47.0%	Regulation model
Q1	11:04	Play 210 ↗	45.0%	Regulation model
Q1	10:22	Play 232 ↗	45.2%	Regulation model
Q1	09:56	Play 254 ↗	45.9%	Regulation model
Q1	09:20	Play 276 ↗	43.1%	Regulation model
Q1	08:41	Play 298 ↗	44.6%	Regulation model
Q1	08:34	Play 321 ↗	47.0%	Regulation model
Q1	08:26	Play 358 ↗	50.0%	Regulation model
Q1	08:21	Play 381 ↗	54.3%	Regulation model
Q1	08:17	Play 401 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	08:12	Play 431 ↗	51.1%	Regulation model
Q1	07:36	Play 453 ↗	51.0%	Regulation model
Q1	06:51	Play 475 ↗	51.7%	Regulation model
Q1	06:48	Play 498 ↗	48.7%	Regulation model
Q1	06:40	Play 518 ↗	46.3%	Regulation model
Q1	06:01	Play 547 ↗	46.5%	Regulation model
Q1	05:18	Play 567 ↗	51.8%	Regulation model
Q1	04:35	Play 587 ↗	57.2%	Regulation model
Q1	04:22	Play 629 ↗	59.6%	Regulation model
Q1	04:18	Play 661 ↗	58.0%	Regulation model
Q1	04:10	Play 732 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	04:10	Play 750 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	04:01	Play 780 ↗	68.4%	Regulation model
Q1	03:16	Play 805 ↗	67.1%	Regulation model
Q1	02:34	Play 827 ↗	70.8%	Regulation model
Q1	01:54	Play 849 ↗	65.8%	Regulation model
Q1	01:17	Play 876 ↗	60.5%	Regulation model
Q1	00:33	Play 898 ↗	62.3%	Regulation model
Q1	00:19	Play 922 ↗	66.5%	Regulation model
Q1	00:00	Play 952 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	15:00	Play 972 ↗	64.6%	Regulation model
Q2	14:22	Play 994 ↗	66.1%	Regulation model
Q2	14:16	Play 1021 ↗	73.0%	Regulation model
Q2	13:42	Play 1043 ↗	73.7%	Regulation model
Q2	13:06	Play 1065 ↗	72.7%	Regulation model
Q2	12:37	Play 1091 ↗	74.8%	Regulation model
Q2	12:30	Play 1114 ↗	73.6%	Regulation model
Q2	11:50	Play 1146 ↗	72.0%	Regulation model
Q2	11:45	Play 1169 ↗	68.7%	Regulation model
Q2	11:35	Play 1189 ↗	71.6%	Regulation model
Q2	10:59	Play 1218 ↗	73.7%	Regulation model
Q2	10:15	Play 1240 ↗	69.9%	Regulation model
Q2	09:30	Play 1265 ↗	66.8%	Regulation model
Q2	08:47	Play 1290 ↗	64.6%	Regulation model
Q2	08:11	Play 1317 ↗	61.1%	Regulation model
Q2	07:36	Play 1339 ↗	63.5%	Regulation model
Q2	07:00	Play 1361 ↗	67.7%	Regulation model
Q2	06:57	Play 1389 ↗	76.1%	Regulation model
Q2	06:14	Play 1421 ↗	79.0%	Regulation model
Q2	06:00	Play 1444 ↗	76.5%	Regulation model
Q2	05:15	Play 1466 ↗	74.3%	Regulation model
Q2	04:33	Play 1488 ↗	78.4%	Regulation model
Q2	03:51	Play 1510 ↗	78.0%	Regulation model
Q2	03:18	Play 1532 ↗	78.4%	Regulation model
Q2	02:42	Play 1554 ↗	80.6%	Regulation model
Q2	02:00	Play 1579 ↗	81.6%	Regulation model
Q2	01:56	Play 1623 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:56	Play 1611 ↗	83.2%	Regulation model
Q2	01:52	Play 1652 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:52	Play 1640 ↗	81.8%	Regulation model
Q2	01:49	Play 1670 ↗	78.7%	Regulation model
Q2	01:46	Play 1690 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:43	Play 1720 ↗	77.5%	Regulation model
Q2	01:39	Play 1743 ↗	78.8%	Regulation model
Q2	01:35	Play 1766 ↗	79.8%	Regulation model
Q2	01:29	Play 1803 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:29	Play 1791 ↗	81.8%	Regulation model
Q2	01:23	Play 1818 ↗	80.8%	Regulation model
Q2	00:50	Play 1855 ↗	83.4%	Regulation model
Q2	00:43	Play 1885 ↗	85.5%	Regulation model
Q2	00:35	Play 1922 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:35	Play 1910 ↗	86.7%	Regulation model
Q2	00:29	Play 1958 ↗	88.8%	Regulation model
Q2	00:24	Play 1981 ↗	87.8%	Regulation model
Q2	00:20	Play 2028 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:20	Play 2016 ↗	86.5%	Regulation model
Q2	00:14	Play 2049 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:14	Play 2064 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:08	Play 2087 ↗	91.1%	Regulation model
Q2	00:00	Play 2109 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	15:00	Play 2129 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	14:56	Play 2169 ↗	92.8%	Regulation model
Q3	14:16	Play 2191 ↗	90.8%	Regulation model
Q3	13:32	Play 2213 ↗	93.4%	Regulation model
Q3	13:16	Play 2246 ↗	93.1%	Regulation model
Q3	12:38	Play 2271 ↗	93.1%	Regulation model
Q3	11:57	Play 2296 ↗	93.5%	Regulation model
Q3	11:54	Play 2329 ↗	91.9%	Regulation model
Q3	11:48	Play 2352 ↗	89.0%	Regulation model
Q3	11:10	Play 2389 ↗	88.2%	Regulation model
Q3	10:32	Play 2411 ↗	88.2%	Regulation model
Q3	10:24	Play 2437 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	10:24	Play 2452 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	10:18	Play 2493 ↗	79.5%	Regulation model
Q3	09:43	Play 2523 ↗	78.9%	Regulation model
Q3	08:59	Play 2550 ↗	78.8%	Regulation model
Q3	08:17	Play 2580 ↗	80.7%	Regulation model
Q3	08:10	Play 2618 ↗	70.3%	Regulation model
Q3	07:30	Play 2693 ↗	65.6%	Regulation model
Q3	06:53	Play 2718 ↗	65.8%	Regulation model
Q3	06:14	Play 2740 ↗	69.0%	Regulation model
Q3	05:31	Play 2765 ↗	66.8%	Regulation model
Q3	04:50	Play 2785 ↗	75.2%	Regulation model
Q3	04:46	Play 2805 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	04:41	Play 2835 ↗	73.4%	Regulation model
Q3	04:04	Play 2857 ↗	73.9%	Regulation model
Q3	03:27	Play 2879 ↗	76.5%	Regulation model
Q3	03:20	Play 2902 ↗	74.7%	Regulation model
Q3	03:15	Play 2925 ↗	72.1%	Regulation model
Q3	02:48	Play 2955 ↗	79.0%	Regulation model
Q3	02:12	Play 2977 ↗	79.0%	Regulation model
Q3	01:30	Play 3002 ↗	80.1%	Regulation model
Q3	00:46	Play 3024 ↗	84.2%	Regulation model
Q3	00:02	Play 3046 ↗	83.7%	Regulation model
Q3	00:00	Play 3070 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	15:00	Play 3090 ↗	83.7%	Regulation model
Q4	14:20	Play 3117 ↗	85.8%	Regulation model
Q4	14:13	Play 3140 ↗	84.8%	Regulation model
Q4	14:10	Play 3166 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	14:10	Play 3181 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	14:03	Play 3211 ↗	86.7%	Regulation model
Q4	13:33	Play 3241 ↗	85.7%	Regulation model
Q4	12:53	Play 3263 ↗	86.3%	Regulation model
Q4	12:31	Play 3311 ↗	83.4%	Regulation model
Q4	12:23	Play 3345 ↗	90.5%	Regulation model
Q4	11:50	Play 3379 ↗	90.2%	Regulation model
Q4	11:16	Play 3404 ↗	90.2%	Regulation model
Q4	10:58	Play 3457 ↗	85.5%	Regulation model
Q4	10:16	Play 3479 ↗	89.3%	Regulation model
Q4	09:31	Play 3504 ↗	87.8%	Regulation model
Q4	08:53	Play 3529 ↗	85.4%	Regulation model
Q4	08:19	Play 3557 ↗	82.9%	Regulation model
Q4	07:35	Play 3579 ↗	81.2%	Regulation model
Q4	07:31	Play 3732 ↗	83.0%	Regulation model
Q4	07:27	Play 3625 ↗	84.8%	Regulation model
Q4	07:24	Play 3677 ↗	88.2%	Regulation model
Q4	07:20	Play 3697 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	07:14	Play 3720 ↗	91.0%	Regulation model
Q4	07:11	Play 3766 ↗	89.7%	Regulation model
Q4	06:30	Play 3788 ↗	87.9%	Regulation model
Q4	05:49	Play 3813 ↗	91.9%	Regulation model
Q4	05:11	Play 3835 ↗	93.3%	Regulation model
Q4	04:29	Play 3862 ↗	94.1%	Regulation model
Q4	03:50	Play 3884 ↗	95.0%	Regulation model
Q4	03:46	Play 3918 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	03:46	Play 3906 ↗	95.3%	Regulation model
Q4	03:33	Play 3947 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	03:33	Play 3935 ↗	96.5%	Regulation model
Q4	03:27	Play 3979 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	03:27	Play 3967 ↗	96.2%	Regulation model
Q4	02:41	Play 3999 ↗	96.4%	Regulation model
Q4	02:00	Play 4040 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	02:00	Play 4021 ↗	98.6%	Regulation model
Q4	01:14	Play 4070 ↗	99.1%	Regulation model
Q4	01:14	Play 4058 ↗	99.1%	Regulation model
Q4	01:12	Play 4107 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	01:08	Play 4130 ↗	98.5%	Regulation model
Q4	01:01	Play 4160 ↗	98.0%	Regulation model
Q4	00:59	Play 4183 ↗	98.4%	Regulation model
Q4	00:51	Play 4213 ↗	96.8%	Regulation model
Q4	00:46	Play 4243 ↗	96.3%	Regulation model
Q4	00:42	Play 4277 ↗	95.7%	Regulation model
Q4	00:36	Play 4300 ↗	96.4%	Regulation model
Q4	00:32	Play 4333 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:32	Play 4320 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:30	Play 4350 ↗	99.2%	Regulation model
Q4	00:00	Play 4372 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage

Coaching decisions

Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.

NYJFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25034/0.27358/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:381

NEFourth down decision cost0.34 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.68390/ NA/0.68047
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:498

NYJFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Outside fourth down domain

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:587

NYJFourth down decision cost0 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20048/0.19068/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:994

NEFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81475/ NA/0.82330
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:1169

NYJFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20809/0.17359/0.15422
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:1361

NEFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84533/0.76650/0.82502
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:1466

NEFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85644/0.85806/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:1670

NYJFourth down decision cost0.37 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10952/ NA/0.10582
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:1791

NEFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96221/0.95916/0.96074
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:2329

NYJFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14198/0.16934/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:2785

NYJFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04327/0.05303/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:3677

NEFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:4070

NEFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97948/0.98716/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:4058

Fumble recoveries

Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.

NEFumble recoveries above expectation-0.06 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.

Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:1579 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:2580 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:3404

NYJFumble recoveries above expectation0.06 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 77 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:1579 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:2580 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:3404

Kicking

Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.

NEField goal points above expectation0.14 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:1670 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:4058

NYJField goal points above expectation1.1 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:381 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:2785 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:3677 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:4300

NEExtra point points above expectation-0.88 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON86th percentile

Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:732 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:2049 Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:3166

NYJExtra point points above expectation0.04 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient tail support

Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_06_NYJ_NE:2437

Penalty patterns

Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.

NYJPresnap called penalties above expectation-0.23 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NYJOffensive holding called penalties above expectation-1.02 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

62 of 62 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 62 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NYJDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.43 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NYJPass interference called penalties above expectation-0.45 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NEPresnap called penalties above expectation-0.19 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

69 of 69 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 69 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NEOffensive holding called penalties above expectation0.88 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

69 of 69 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 2 across 69 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NEDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.38 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 35 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

NEPass interference called penalties above expectation0.59 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

35 of 35 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 35 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Q108:21Kick · NYJ(8:21) 19-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

Not reviewedPlay 381Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYJ

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYJ
Ydstogo: 20
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NYJ
Home team: NE
Away total: 18
Home total: 25.5
Total line: 43.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 4.814199052655689
Yardline 100: 24
Elapsed share: 0.1108333333333333
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 18
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: NYJ
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 0
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 3201
Half seconds remaining: 1401
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 501
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.273576224948208

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.25034/0.27358/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NYJ

1.1 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled

Q201:49Kick · NE(1:49) 8-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

Not reviewedPlay 1670Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NE

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NE
Ydstogo: 4
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NYJ
Home team: NE
Away total: 18
Home total: 25.5
Total line: 43.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 1.14569808408866
Yardline 100: 14
Elapsed share: 0.4697222222222222
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 25.5
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: 7.5
Original posteam: NE
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential: 4
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1909
Half seconds remaining: 109
Away timeouts remaining: 1
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 109
Defteam timeouts remaining: 1
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.8580641117564525

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85644/0.85806/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NE

0.14 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q304:50Kick · NYJ(4:50) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

Not reviewedPlay 2785Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYJ

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYJ
Ydstogo: 13
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NYJ
Home team: NE
Away total: 18
Home total: 25.5
Total line: 43.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 0.5153676460220614
Yardline 100: 18
Elapsed share: 0.6694444444444444
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 18
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: NYJ
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -7
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 1190
Half seconds remaining: 1190
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 290
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.1693449298434093

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14198/0.16934/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NYJ

1.1 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled

Q407:24Kick · NYJ(7:24) 19-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

Not reviewedPlay 3677Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYJ

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYJ
Ydstogo: 10
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NYJ
Home team: NE
Away total: 18
Home total: 25.5
Total line: 43.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 0.2249755282279093
Yardline 100: 22
Elapsed share: 0.8766666666666667
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 18
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: NYJ
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -10
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 444
Half seconds remaining: 444
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 444
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.05303209497601625

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.04327/0.05303/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NYJ

1.1 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled

Q401:14Kick · NE(1:14) 8-A.Borregales 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

Not reviewedPlay 4058Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NE

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NE
Ydstogo: 6
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NYJ
Home team: NE
Away total: 18
Home total: 25.5
Total line: 43.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 0.1491392631951837
Yardline 100: 9
Elapsed share: 0.9794444444444445
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 25.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 7.5
Original posteam: NE
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 7
Home opening kickoff: 0
Game seconds remaining: 74
Half seconds remaining: 74
Away timeouts remaining: 0
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 74
Defteam timeouts remaining: 0
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.9871615576311725

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.97948/0.98716/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation NE

0.14 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Show the remaining 18 recorded events

Q108:34Penalty · NYJ(8:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-O.Cooper for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYJ-17-T.Patrick, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NE 14 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 321Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYJ

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q104:35Penalty · NYJ(4:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to NE 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 10 yards (27-M.Moore). PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 47.

Not reviewedPlay 587Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYJ

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost NYJ

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q104:10Kick · NE8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

Not reviewedPlay 732Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NE

-0.88 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q214:22Fourth down · NYJ(14:22) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to NE 29 for 1 yard (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss).

Not reviewedPlay 994Link to event

Fourth down decision cost NYJ

0 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: NYJ
Ydstogo: 2
Outdoors: 1
Away team: NYJ
Home team: NE
Away total: 18
Home total: 25.5
Total line: 43.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 2.64502574393615
Yardline 100: 30
Elapsed share: 0.2605555555555555
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 18
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: NYJ
Home receive 2h ko: 1
Score differential

Q202:00Fumble · NE(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 1-A.Brown to NYJ 12 for 8 yards (1-A.Thomas, 31-D.Bailey). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), and recovers at NYJ 12.

Not reviewedPlay 1579Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation NE

-0.06 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ

0.06 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q200:35Penalty · NE(:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at NYJ 19 for 11 yards. PENALTY on NYJ-31-D.Bailey, Roughing the Passer, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 19.

Not reviewedPlay 1910Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NE

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q200:14Kick · NE8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

Not reviewedPlay 2049Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NE

-0.88 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q313:32Penalty · NE(13:32) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NYJ 38 for 7 yards (31-D.Bailey; 1-A.Thomas). PENALTY on NE-85-H.Henry, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 42.

Not reviewedPlay 2213Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NE

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q310:24Kick · NYJ19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

Not reviewedPlay 2437Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NYJ

0.04 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q310:24Penalty · NE19-J.Sanders kicks 58 yards from NYJ 35 to NE 7. 9-C.Kiner to NE 33 for 26 yards (9-W.McDonald). PENALTY on NE-48-N.Obiazor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 27.

Not reviewedPlay 2452Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NE

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q308:17Fumble · NE(8:17) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey; 91-J.Briggs). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood at NE 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Not reviewedPlay 2580Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation NE

-0.06 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ

0.06 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q300:02Penalty · NE(:02) PENALTY on NYJ-31-D.Bailey, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 14 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3046Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NE

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q414:10Kick · NE8-A.Borregales extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

Not reviewedPlay 3166Link to event

Extra point points above expectation NE

-0.88 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q412:53Penalty · NYJ(12:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 37 for 9 yards (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on NE-5-Dr.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37. Penalty on NE-5-Dr.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined.

Not reviewedPlay 3263Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYJ

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q411:16Fumble · NE(11:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 33 for 39 yards (44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (44-J.Sherwood), RECOVERED by NYJ-29-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 25. 29-M.Fitzpatrick pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 20 yards (85-H.Henry).

Not reviewedPlay 3404Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation NE

-0.06 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation NYJ

0.06 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q401:14Penalty · NE(1:14) (Run formation) PENALTY on NE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 4 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 4070Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NE

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost NE

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q400:46Penalty · NYJ(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.Patrick. PENALTY on NE-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at NE 35 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 4243Link to event

Observed ruling consequence NYJ

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q400:36Kick · NYJ(:36) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

Not reviewedPlay 4300Link to event

Field goal points above expectation NYJ

1.1 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled

Model versions and technical record

nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.

nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.

fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1

Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons

Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.

spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1

Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons

Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.

game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5

Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only

Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.

game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1

Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.

Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.

Analysis input hash: 9454949713e638cf8452c2070ca360fd2427ad7458f1de0930ac69c7df1b736c

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Fair

Result versus box score

Penalty pattern

Result versus spread

Penalties extending one drive

Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Spread vs. result

Did the score fit the performance?

Game momentum

Impact of officiating decisions

Fan feedback

New York Jets · Play 321

New England Patriots · Play 629

New England Patriots · Play 4070

Source plays 174

Observed ruling consequence NE

Actual state

Supported alternative

Automatic analysis

Source data

Data sources

football-zebras

ftn-via-nflverse

nflverse-schedules

Were the penalties unusual?

The referee: Clete Blakeman

How the result took shape

Winning-profile context

Coaching decisions

Fumble recoveries

Kicking

Player execution

Penalty patterns

Assumptions

Ruling expected points consequence NE

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost NYJ

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost NE

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost NYJ

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Field goal points above expectation NYJ

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost NE

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost NYJ

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost NE

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost NE

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Field goal points above expectation NE

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions

Fourth down decision cost NE

Actual state

Supported alternative

Assumptions