Skip to content
Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: PIT by 8.5; actual result: PIT by 7.
The 1.5-point difference was matched or exceeded in 692 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 TB minus PIT penalty-yard difference: -24 versus 1.5 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 632 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: PIT by 2.5; actual result: PIT by 7. The difference was 4.5 points.
5,224 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗
Do you agree with this rating? Your vote is public. Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5
Final margin Pittsburgh Steelers by 7
Difference 4.5 points
Pittsburgh Steelers covered the spread.
5,224 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (71.8%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score PIT by 8.5
Actual final margin PIT by 7
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates · circle = recorded result
Tampa Bay Buccaneers chance to win during the game 152 preplay estimates across 208 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 55 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The shaded region marks overtime. A separate circle identifies the recorded final outcome, not a forecast. All recorded entries appear in the table below. OVERTIME Limited data 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 4 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 01:26 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 4085 (1:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (25-J.Parrish).
Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 5.0 percentage points across this play.
Q5 · 09:11 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 4437 (9:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 47 for 20 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone) [51-D.Walker]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 43 for 16 yards (22-K.Scott) [51-D.Walker].
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Q4 · 03:38 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 3823 (3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on TB awarded PIT a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 208 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 208 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 9-C.Boswell kicks 60 yards from PIT 35 to TB 5. 15-T.Johnson to TB 30 for 25 yards (40-D.Slaughter). Play 40 9-C.Boswell kicks 60 yards from PIT 35 to TB 5. 15-T.Johnson to TB 30 for 25 yards (40-D.Slaughter).
Q114:55 (14:55) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 33 for 3 yards (90-T.Watt; 56-A.Highsmith). Play 63 (14:55) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 33 for 3 yards (90-T.Watt; 56-A.Highsmith).
Q114:12 (14:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 31 for -2 yards (95-K.Benton). Play 85 (14:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 31 for -2 yards (95-K.Benton).
Q113:30 (13:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 16 for -15 yards (5-J.Ramsey). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 34 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q403:38 Penalty · PIT (3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB -23.09 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 37
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 213
Half seconds remaining 213
Quarter seconds remaining 213
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. overtime_model_experimental: Overtime estimates are partial, empirical and uncalibrated; unavailable states remain gaps. Terminal values are observed results, not predictions. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
692 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 632 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Land Clark Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11.8 accepted penalties for 98.5 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.9 / 48.2 yd per game. Away teams: 5.9 / 50.4 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Land Clark; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 1 in overtime.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Opponent penalties Opponent PIT was charged 5 penalties for 62 yards.
Pittsburgh Steelers · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Pittsburgh Steelers · Opponent penalties Opponent TB was charged 4 penalties for 38 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
Recorded final result: Pittsburgh Steelers won. This point is an observation, not a forecast. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 152 model estimates across 208 recorded game entries, plus 1 recorded final result.
55 entries have no estimate : 27 overtime entries and 28 other recorded states.
The overtime model requires at least 20 comparable prior games with matching possession rules. Sparse or ambiguous states stay unrated. It estimates wins, losses and ties separately; see coverage and limits .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The final circle shows the recorded outcome. A tied game has 0% win and 100% tie at that point.
View all chart data (208 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence 7.1 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence 2.17 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence -4.5 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence -1.37 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Observed ruling consequence -23.09 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
TB Ruling expected points consequence -3.01 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
PIT Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28890/ NA/0.34985 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0.98 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59764/0.57167/0.58787 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 1.44 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43959/0.42520/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55152/0.50203/0.51592 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.66782/ NA/0.68559 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 1.78 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33122/0.31338/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73357/0.75572/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13632/ NA/0.16315 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.75428/ NA/0.79488 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22568/ NA/0.24071 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81168/0.83939/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 1.06 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11187/ NA/0.10131 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84767/ NA/0.86584 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.23169/0.25970/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51028/ NA/0.58334 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22312/0.24376/0.18264 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
PIT Fourth down decision cost 3.33 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74991/0.71665/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
TB Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
TB Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
PIT Fumble recoveries above expectation 0 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
TB Field goal points above expectation 1.93 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
PIT Field goal points above expectation -0.12 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
TB Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
PIT Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
TB Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 208 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
PIT Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 208 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
TB Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.52 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.35 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
75 of 75 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 75 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.61 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
55 of 55 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 55 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
TB Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.24 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
55 of 55 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 55 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.45 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
76 of 76 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 76 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.31 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
76 of 76 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 76 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.62 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 49 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
PIT Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.31 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 49 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Estimated chance to win moved 15.4 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:08 Recorded game event
Pittsburgh Steelers · Play 4291 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 31 for 28 yards (38-K.Knowles). PENALTY on PIT-21-T.Homer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 31.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.1 percentage points across this play.
Play 107
(13:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 16 for -15 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Q112:57 (12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to TB 44, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-84-B.Sharp. Play 127 (12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to TB 44, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-84-B.Sharp.
Q112:48 (12:48) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right. Play 147 (12:48) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right.
Q112:44 (12:44) 30-J.Warren left end to TB 42 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 170 (12:44) 30-J.Warren left end to TB 42 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q112:02 (12:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right. Play 192 (12:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right.
Q111:56 (11:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson. Play 215 (11:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.
Q111:50 (11:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton (95-K.Benton). Play 235 (11:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton (95-K.Benton).
Q111:45 (11:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 17 for 5 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 265 (11:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 17 for 5 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q111:06 (11:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin. Play 287 (11:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin.
Q111:02 (11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at TB 44 for 14 yards (29-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-40-D.Slaughter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 46. Play 310 (11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at TB 44 for 14 yards (29-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-40-D.Slaughter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 46.
Q110:51 (10:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 80-D.Washington INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson (3-R.Bain) [0-Y.Diaby] at PIT 39. 91-A.Robinson to PIT 39 for no gain (67-B.Hoffman). Play 352 (10:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 80-D.Washington INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson (3-R.Bain) [0-Y.Diaby] at PIT 39. 91-A.Robinson to PIT 39 for no gain (67-B.Hoffman).
Q110:45 (10:45) 7-B.Irving left tackle to PIT 33 for 6 yards (97-C.Heyward; 41-P.Wilson). Play 396 (10:45) 7-B.Irving left tackle to PIT 33 for 6 yards (97-C.Heyward; 41-P.Wilson).
Q110:06 (10:06) 7-B.Irving right guard to PIT 27 for 6 yards (69-S.Joseph; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 418 (10:06) 7-B.Irving right guard to PIT 27 for 6 yards (69-S.Joseph; 28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q109:20 (9:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to PIT 32 for -5 yards (51-N.Herbig, 97-C.Heyward). Play 440 (9:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to PIT 32 for -5 yards (51-N.Herbig, 97-C.Heyward).
Q108:40 (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka. Play 462 (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka.
Q108:35 (8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell to PIT 25 for 7 yards (51-N.Herbig). Play 485 (8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 1-K.Gainwell to PIT 25 for 7 yards (51-N.Herbig).
Q107:55 (7:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 510 (7:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q107:51 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 59 yards from TB 35 to PIT 6. 10-K.Wetjen to TB 41 for 53 yards (19-K.Johnson; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on PIT-55-C.Holcomb, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 35. Penalty on PIT-85-R.Tonyan, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 530 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 59 yards from TB 35 to PIT 6. 10-K.Wetjen to TB 41 for 53 yards (19-K.Johnson; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on PIT-55-C.Holcomb, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 35. Penalty on PIT-85-R.Tonyan, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q107:43 (7:43) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 22 for 2 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 582 (7:43) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 22 for 2 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q107:06 (7:06) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 38 for 16 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 605 (7:06) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 38 for 16 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q106:24 (6:24) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 49 for 13 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone). Play 627 (6:24) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 49 for 13 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone).
Q105:38 (5:38) 13-R.Dowdle left end to PIT 49 for -2 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 649 (5:38) 13-R.Dowdle left end to PIT 49 for -2 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q105:02 (5:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to TB 46 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith; 22-K.Scott). Play 671 (5:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to TB 46 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith; 22-K.Scott).
Q104:21 (4:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 42 for 4 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 696 (4:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 42 for 4 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q103:46 Timeout #1 by PIT at 03:46. Play 733 Timeout #1 by PIT at 03:46.
Q103:46 (3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 40 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby) [23-T.Smith]. Play 721 (3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 40 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby) [23-T.Smith].
Q103:41 (3:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 10-J.Daniels to TB 37 for -3 yards (95-K.Benton). Play 753 (3:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 10-J.Daniels to TB 37 for -3 yards (95-K.Benton).
Q103:00 (3:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 41 for 4 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 785 (3:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to TB 41 for 4 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q102:33 (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to PIT 46 for 13 yards (23-D.Everette; 3-J.Brisker). Play 815 (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to PIT 46 for 13 yards (23-D.Everette; 3-J.Brisker).
Q101:50 (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 44 for -10 yards (51-N.Herbig). Play 840 (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 44 for -10 yards (51-N.Herbig).
Q101:07 (1:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to PIT 40 for 16 yards (23-D.Everette). Play 865 (1:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to PIT 40 for 16 yards (23-D.Everette).
Q100:43 (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 35 for 5 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Play 890 (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 35 for 5 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Q100:01 (:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to PIT 24 for 11 yards (22-A.Samuel; 41-P.Wilson). Play 915 (:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to PIT 24 for 11 yards (22-A.Samuel; 41-P.Wilson).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 940 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst (23-D.Everette). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at PIT 24 - No Play. Play 960 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst (23-D.Everette). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at PIT 24 - No Play.
Q214:55 (14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 994 (14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q214:52 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 1020 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q214:52 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 64 yards from TB 35 to PIT 1. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 24 for 23 yards (51-D.Walker; 38-K.Knowles). Play 1035 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 64 yards from TB 35 to PIT 1. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 24 for 23 yards (51-D.Walker; 38-K.Knowles).
Q214:45 (14:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 30 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter; 27-Z.McCollum). Play 1065 (14:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 30 for 6 yards (45-J.Trotter; 27-Z.McCollum).
Q214:01 (14:01) 30-J.Warren right tackle to PIT 32 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 1094 (14:01) 30-J.Warren right tackle to PIT 32 for 2 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q213:18 (13:18) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Warren (52-C.Rozeboom). Play 1116 (13:18) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Warren (52-C.Rozeboom).
Q213:15 (13:15) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TB 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 8 yards (21-T.Homer). PENALTY on TB-38-K.Knowles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TB 13. Play 1139 (13:15) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TB 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 8 yards (21-T.Homer). PENALTY on TB-38-K.Knowles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TB 13.
Q213:02 (13:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 20 for 13 yards (22-A.Samuel; 3-J.Brisker). Play 1165 (13:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 20 for 13 yards (22-A.Samuel; 3-J.Brisker).
Q212:22 (12:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 21 for 1 yard (22-A.Samuel). Play 1206 (12:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 21 for 1 yard (22-A.Samuel).
Q212:03 (12:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 27 for 6 yards (35-J.Dean). Play 1233 (12:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 27 for 6 yards (35-J.Dean).
Q211:44 (11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left [97-C.Heyward]. Play 1258 (11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left [97-C.Heyward].
Q211:36 (11:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PIT 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen. Play 1281 (11:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PIT 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
Q211:30 (11:30) 13-R.Dowdle left guard to PIT 34 for no gain (23-T.Smith; 51-D.Walker). Play 1301 (11:30) 13-R.Dowdle left guard to PIT 34 for no gain (23-T.Smith; 51-D.Walker).
Q210:49 (10:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard pushed ob at PIT 48 for 14 yards (27-Z.McCollum) [98-A.Nelson]. Play 1330 (10:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard pushed ob at PIT 48 for 14 yards (27-Z.McCollum) [98-A.Nelson].
Q210:10 (10:10) 13-R.Dowdle right guard to TB 37 for 15 yards (23-T.Smith; 5-I.Melifonwu). Play 1360 (10:10) 13-R.Dowdle right guard to TB 37 for 15 yards (23-T.Smith; 5-I.Melifonwu).
Q209:27 (9:27) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 34 for 3 yards (52-C.Rozeboom; 95-E.Roberts). Play 1382 (9:27) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 34 for 3 yards (52-C.Rozeboom; 95-E.Roberts).
Q208:42 (8:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 33 for 1 yard (23-T.Smith, 50-V.Vea). Play 1404 (8:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 33 for 1 yard (23-T.Smith, 50-V.Vea).
Q207:58 (7:58) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 30 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott; 51-D.Walker). Play 1429 (7:58) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 30 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott; 51-D.Walker).
Q207:15 (7:15) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 1454 (7:15) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q207:11 (7:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 41 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 1475 (7:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 41 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q206:31 (6:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PIT 42 for 17 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Play 1504 (6:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PIT 42 for 17 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Q205:48 (5:48) 1-K.Gainwell right guard to PIT 28 for 14 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Play 1526 (5:48) 1-K.Gainwell right guard to PIT 28 for 14 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Q205:05 (5:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at PIT 29 for -1 yards (94-Y.Black). Play 1548 (5:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at PIT 29 for -1 yards (94-Y.Black).
Q204:23 (4:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka. Play 1568 (4:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.
Q204:17 Timeout #1 by TB at 04:17. Play 1615 Timeout #1 by TB at 04:17.
Q204:17 (4:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 2-E.Egbuka [6-P.Queen]. Play 1603 (4:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 2-E.Egbuka [6-P.Queen].
Q204:12 (4:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 1641 (4:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q204:08 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 35. Play 1661 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PIT 35.
Q204:08 (4:08) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 27 for -8 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 1678 (4:08) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 27 for -8 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q203:26 (3:26) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 30 for 3 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 1698 (3:26) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 30 for 3 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q202:43 Timeout #2 by PIT at 02:43. Play 1732 Timeout #2 by PIT at 02:43.
Q202:43 (2:43) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 22 for -8 yards (3-R.Bain). Play 1720 (2:43) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 22 for -8 yards (3-R.Bain).
Q202:00 (2:00) 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to TB 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. Play 1747 (2:00) 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to TB 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
Q201:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 25 - No Play. Play 1773 (1:52) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 25 - No Play.
Q201:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at TB 20 for no gain (22-A.Samuel). Play 1797 (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at TB 20 for no gain (22-A.Samuel).
Q201:47 (1:47) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 26 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 1827 (1:47) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 26 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q201:43 Timeout #3 by PIT at 01:43. Play 1861 Timeout #3 by PIT at 01:43.
Q201:43 (1:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean). Play 1849 (1:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean).
Q201:40 (1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 27, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for -4 yards (19-K.Johnson). Play 1879 (1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 27, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for -4 yards (19-K.Johnson).
Q201:28 (1:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 30 for 7 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 1905 (1:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 30 for 7 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q201:08 (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 34 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith). Play 1939 (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 34 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q200:47 (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-R.Dowdle (97-A.Muhammad). Play 1964 (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-R.Dowdle (97-A.Muhammad).
Q200:45 (:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 40 for 6 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 1999 (:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 40 for 6 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q200:29 (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 48 for 12 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 2024 (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 48 for 12 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q200:16 (:16) (No Huddle) 8-A.Rodgers spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 2049 (:16) (No Huddle) 8-A.Rodgers spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q200:15 Timeout #2 by TB at 00:15. Play 2084 Timeout #2 by TB at 00:15.
Q200:15 (:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 34 for 14 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 2072 (:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 34 for 14 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q200:04 (:04) 8-A.Rodgers spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 2104 (:04) 8-A.Rodgers spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q200:03 (:03) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 2127 (:03) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2147 Q315:00 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 55 yards from TB 35 to PIT 10. 31-L.Nichols to PIT 31 for 21 yards (51-D.Walker). Play 2165 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 55 yards from TB 35 to PIT 10. 31-L.Nichols to PIT 31 for 21 yards (51-D.Walker).
Q314:55 (14:55) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 33 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby). Play 2188 (14:55) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 33 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
Q314:25 (14:25) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren (45-J.Trotter) [0-Y.Diaby]. Play 2210 (14:25) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren (45-J.Trotter) [0-Y.Diaby].
Q314:21 (14:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Freiermuth. Play 2233 (14:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Freiermuth.
Q314:18 (14:18) 19-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings. Play 2256 (14:18) 19-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings.
Q314:04 (14:04) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 16 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward). Play 2276 (14:04) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 16 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward).
Q313:25 (13:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 7-B.Irving to TB 17 for 1 yard (41-P.Wilson). Play 2310 (13:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 7-B.Irving to TB 17 for 1 yard (41-P.Wilson).
Q312:57 (12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end pushed ob at TB 26 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen). Play 2335 (12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end pushed ob at TB 26 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen).
Q312:16 (12:16) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 84-B.Sharp to TB 47 for 21 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Play 2367 (12:16) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 84-B.Sharp to TB 47 for 21 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Q311:30 (11:30) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 45 for -2 yards (33-J.Sawyer, 3-J.Brisker). Play 2392 (11:30) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 45 for -2 yards (33-J.Sawyer, 3-J.Brisker).
Q311:02 (11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 15-T.Johnson to PIT 49 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 2414 (11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 15-T.Johnson to PIT 49 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q310:20 (10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 2-E.Egbuka to PIT 36 for 13 yards (22-A.Samuel; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). Play 2439 (10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle to 2-E.Egbuka to PIT 36 for 13 yards (22-A.Samuel; 28-R.Spears-Jennings).
Q309:34 (9:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka ran ob at PIT 29 for 7 yards (35-J.Dean). Play 2464 (9:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka ran ob at PIT 29 for 7 yards (35-J.Dean).
Q309:04 (9:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to PIT 29 for no gain (90-T.Watt; 95-K.Benton). Play 2494 (9:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to PIT 29 for no gain (90-T.Watt; 95-K.Benton).
Q308:39 (8:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to PIT 25 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 2516 (8:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 88-C.Otton to PIT 25 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q307:56 (7:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to PIT 18 for 7 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Play 2541 (7:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to PIT 18 for 7 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Q307:14 (7:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to PIT 16 for 2 yards (96-G.Rubio; 41-P.Wilson). Play 2563 (7:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to PIT 16 for 2 yards (96-G.Rubio; 41-P.Wilson).
Q306:35 (6:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right guard to PIT 13 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 2585 (6:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Gainwell right guard to PIT 13 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q305:57 (5:57) 7-B.Irving right tackle to PIT 15 for -2 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Play 2607 (5:57) 7-B.Irving right tackle to PIT 15 for -2 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Q305:17 (5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 17-T.Hurst. Play 2629 (5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 17-T.Hurst.
Q305:12 (5:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [3-J.Brisker]. PIT-3-J.Brisker was injured during the play. Play 2652 (5:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [3-J.Brisker]. PIT-3-J.Brisker was injured during the play.
Q305:05 (5:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 2675 (5:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q305:02 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 56 yards from TB 35 to PIT 9. 31-L.Nichols to PIT 33 for 24 yards (41-K.Kieft). Play 2705 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 56 yards from TB 35 to PIT 9. 31-L.Nichols to PIT 33 for 24 yards (41-K.Kieft).
Q304:55 (4:55) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 37 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter; 27-Z.McCollum). Play 2728 (4:55) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to PIT 37 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter; 27-Z.McCollum).
Q304:10 (4:10) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 37 for no gain (45-J.Trotter; 3-R.Bain). Play 2753 (4:10) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 37 for no gain (45-J.Trotter; 3-R.Bain).
Q303:30 (3:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf. Play 2775 (3:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf.
Q303:26 (3:26) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 13 yards (51-N.Herbig). Play 2798 (3:26) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 13 yards (51-N.Herbig).
Q303:14 (3:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 27 for 2 yards (51-N.Herbig). ** Injury Update: PIT-3-J.Brisker has returned to the game. Play 2829 (3:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left guard to TB 27 for 2 yards (51-N.Herbig). ** Injury Update: PIT-3-J.Brisker has returned to the game.
Q302:42 (2:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin. Play 2858 (2:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Godwin.
Q302:38 Timeout #1 by TB at 02:38. Play 2901 Timeout #1 by TB at 02:38.
Q302:38 (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end to TB 30 for 3 yards (56-A.Highsmith). ** Injury Update: PIT-3-J.Brisker has returned to the game. Penalty on TB-69-C.Mauch, Offensive Holding, declined. Play 2884 (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end to TB 30 for 3 yards (56-A.Highsmith). ** Injury Update: PIT-3-J.Brisker has returned to the game. Penalty on TB-69-C.Mauch, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q302:23 (2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PIT 32, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. Play 2929 (2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PIT 32, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
Q302:14 (2:14) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf. Play 2951 (2:14) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf.
Q302:09 (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to PIT 41 for 9 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Play 2981 (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to PIT 41 for 9 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
Q301:40 (1:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard pushed ob at TB 40 for 19 yards (25-J.Parrish). Play 3006 (1:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard pushed ob at TB 40 for 19 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q301:04 (1:04) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 49 for -11 yards (51-D.Walker). Play 3036 (1:04) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 49 for -11 yards (51-D.Walker).
Q300:18 (:18) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 46 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 3056 (:18) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 46 for 5 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3081 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 29 for 17 yards (27-Z.McCollum; 5-I.Melifonwu). Play 3101 (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 29 for 17 yards (27-Z.McCollum; 5-I.Melifonwu).
Q414:35 (14:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard. PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 29 - No Play. Play 3126 (14:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard. PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 29 - No Play.
Q414:33 (14:33) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 5 for 9 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 3160 (14:33) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to TB 5 for 9 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q413:53 (13:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3185 (13:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q413:48 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 3211 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q413:48 9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to TB 2. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 27 yards (37-R.Nowakowski; 33-J.Sawyer). Play 3226 9-C.Boswell kicks 63 yards from PIT 35 to TB 2. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 27 yards (37-R.Nowakowski; 33-J.Sawyer).
Q413:43 (13:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right end to TB 32 for 3 yards (94-Y.Black). Play 3256 (13:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right end to TB 32 for 3 yards (94-Y.Black).
Q413:18 (13:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.Hurst. Play 3278 (13:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.Hurst.
Q413:14 (13:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Everette [97-C.Heyward] at TB 45. 23-D.Everette ran ob at TB 45 for no gain. Play 3301 (13:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Everette [97-C.Heyward] at TB 45. 23-D.Everette ran ob at TB 45 for no gain.
Q413:09 (13:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at TB 28 for 17 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 3333 (13:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at TB 28 for 17 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q412:30 (12:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 28 for no gain (27-Z.McCollum; 45-J.Trotter). Play 3363 (12:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 28 for no gain (27-Z.McCollum; 45-J.Trotter).
Q411:44 (11:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 28 for no gain (22-K.Scott; 91-A.Robinson). Play 3388 (11:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 28 for no gain (22-K.Scott; 91-A.Robinson).
Q411:00 (11:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to TB 12 for 16 yards (45-J.Trotter). Play 3413 (11:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to TB 12 for 16 yards (45-J.Trotter).
Q410:12 (10:12) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard. Play 3438 (10:12) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard.
Q410:09 (10:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at TB 18 for -6 yards (97-A.Muhammad). Play 3461 (10:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at TB 18 for -6 yards (97-A.Muhammad).
Q409:23 (9:23) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren pushed ob at TB 2 for 16 yards (5-I.Melifonwu). PENALTY on PIT-80-D.Washington, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TB 18 - No Play. Play 3481 (9:23) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren pushed ob at TB 2 for 16 yards (5-I.Melifonwu). PENALTY on PIT-80-D.Washington, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TB 18 - No Play.
Q408:51 (8:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 21 for 2 yards (51-D.Walker). Play 3522 (8:51) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 21 for 2 yards (51-D.Walker).
Q408:11 (8:11) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 3547 (8:11) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q408:08 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to TB 0. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 26 for 26 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 87-B.Smith). Play 3567 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to TB 0. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 26 for 26 yards (33-J.Sawyer; 87-B.Smith).
Q408:01 (8:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 25 for -1 yards (5-J.Ramsey, 69-S.Joseph). Play 3597 (8:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 25 for -1 yards (5-J.Ramsey, 69-S.Joseph).
Q407:19 (7:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean). Play 3619 (7:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean).
Q407:15 (7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean). Play 3654 (7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 2-E.Egbuka (35-J.Dean).
Q407:10 (7:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen. Play 3677 (7:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
Q407:03 (7:03) (Shotgun) 13-R.Dowdle left guard to PIT 28 for 5 yards (92-E.Simmons; 0-Y.Diaby). Play 3697 (7:03) (Shotgun) 13-R.Dowdle left guard to PIT 28 for 5 yards (92-E.Simmons; 0-Y.Diaby).
Q406:19 (6:19) 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 34 for 6 yards (3-R.Bain; 22-K.Scott). Play 3719 (6:19) 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 34 for 6 yards (3-R.Bain; 22-K.Scott).
Q405:37 (5:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at PIT 46 for 12 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 3741 (5:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at PIT 46 for 12 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q405:02 (5:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 49 for 3 yards (27-Z.McCollum). Play 3776 (5:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 49 for 3 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q404:18 (4:18) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to TB 49 for 2 yards (22-K.Scott). Play 3801 (4:18) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to TB 49 for 2 yards (22-K.Scott).
Q403:38 (3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play. Play 3823 (3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
Q403:33 (3:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (25-J.Parrish). Play 3857 (3:33) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (25-J.Parrish).
Q403:29 (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to TB 31 for 6 yards (23-T.Smith; 34-A.Anzalone). Play 3880 (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-D.Washington to TB 31 for 6 yards (23-T.Smith; 34-A.Anzalone).
Q402:47 (2:47) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at TB 40 for -9 yards (51-D.Walker). Play 3905 (2:47) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at TB 40 for -9 yards (51-D.Walker).
Q402:00 (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 3925 (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q401:55 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to TB 0. 19-K.Johnson ran ob at TB 37 for 37 yards (9-C.Boswell). Play 3952 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to TB 0. 19-K.Johnson ran ob at TB 37 for 37 yards (9-C.Boswell).
Q401:49 (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst. Play 3985 (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst.
Q401:46 (1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels). Play 4008 (1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).
Q401:38 (1:38) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Washington (27-Z.McCollum). Play 4035 (1:38) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Washington (27-Z.McCollum).
Q401:33 (1:33) 30-J.Warren left tackle to TB 1 for 2 yards (52-C.Rozeboom; 91-A.Robinson). Play 4058 (1:33) 30-J.Warren left tackle to TB 1 for 2 yards (52-C.Rozeboom; 91-A.Robinson).
Q401:26 Timeout #2 by TB at 01:26. Play 4097 Timeout #2 by TB at 01:26.
Q401:26 (1:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (25-J.Parrish). Play 4085 (1:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (25-J.Parrish).
Q401:23 (1:23) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 4115 (1:23) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q401:21 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35. Play 4135 9-C.Boswell kicks 65 yards from PIT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TB 35.
Q401:21 (1:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 43 for 22 yards (35-J.Dean; 41-P.Wilson). Play 4157 (1:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 43 for 22 yards (35-J.Dean; 41-P.Wilson).
Q401:00 (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Godwin. Play 4182 (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Godwin.
Q400:51 (:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at PIT 48 for -5 yards (51-N.Herbig). Play 4205 (:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at PIT 48 for -5 yards (51-N.Herbig).
Q400:40 Timeout #3 by TB at 00:40. Play 4237 Timeout #3 by TB at 00:40.
Q400:40 Timeout #1 by PIT at 00:40. Play 4244 Timeout #1 by PIT at 00:40.
Q400:40 (:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 35 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean; 6-P.Queen). Play 4225 (:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 35 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean; 6-P.Queen).
Q400:13 Timeout #2 by PIT at 00:13. Play 4276 Timeout #2 by PIT at 00:13.
Q400:13 (:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Play 4264 (:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q400:08 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 31 for 28 yards (38-K.Knowles). PENALTY on PIT-21-T.Homer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 31. Play 4291 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 31 for 28 yards (38-K.Knowles). PENALTY on PIT-21-T.Homer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 31.
Q400:03 (:03) 8-A.Rodgers kneels to PIT 20 for -1 yards. Play 4327 (:03) 8-A.Rodgers kneels to PIT 20 for -1 yards.
Q400:00 END QUARTER 4 Play 4349 Q510:00 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 60 yards from TB 35 to PIT 5. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 30 for 25 yards (29-M.Killebrew). Play 4369 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 60 yards from TB 35 to PIT 5. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 30 for 25 yards (29-M.Killebrew).
Q509:55 (9:55) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right. Play 4392 (9:55) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right.
Q509:48 (9:48) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 27 for -3 yards (0-Y.Diaby). Play 4415 (9:48) 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 27 for -3 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
Q509:11 (9:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 47 for 20 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone) [51-D.Walker]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 43 for 16 yards (22-K.Scott) [51-D.Walker]. Play 4437 (9:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 47 for 20 yards (5-I.Melifonwu; 34-A.Anzalone) [51-D.Walker]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 4-D.Metcalf to PIT 43 for 16 yards (22-K.Scott) [51-D.Walker].
Q508:44 (8:44) 30-J.Warren right tackle to PIT 47 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith; 91-A.Robinson). Play 4462 (8:44) 30-J.Warren right tackle to PIT 47 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith; 91-A.Robinson).
Q508:18 (8:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 44 for 9 yards (52-C.Rozeboom). Play 4514 (8:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 44 for 9 yards (52-C.Rozeboom).
Q507:39 (7:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Warren to TB 32 for 12 yards (45-J.Trotter; 5-I.Melifonwu). Play 4539 (7:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Warren to TB 32 for 12 yards (45-J.Trotter; 5-I.Melifonwu).
Q506:52 (6:52) 30-J.Warren up the middle to TB 27 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith; 52-C.Rozeboom). Play 4564 (6:52) 30-J.Warren up the middle to TB 27 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith; 52-C.Rozeboom).
Q506:11 (6:11) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left end to TB 20 for 7 yards (95-E.Roberts). Play 4586 (6:11) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left end to TB 20 for 7 yards (95-E.Roberts).
Q505:27 (5:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 15 for 5 yards (25-J.Parrish; 45-J.Trotter). Play 4611 (5:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 4-D.Metcalf to TB 15 for 5 yards (25-J.Parrish; 45-J.Trotter).
Q504:47 (4:47) (Shotgun) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 9 for 6 yards (50-V.Vea; 23-T.Smith). Play 4636 (4:47) (Shotgun) 13-R.Dowdle up the middle to TB 9 for 6 yards (50-V.Vea; 23-T.Smith).
Q504:02 (4:02) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 6 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea). Play 4658 (4:02) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-R.Dowdle to TB 6 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea).
Q503:20 (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4683 (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q503:15 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. Play 4714 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
Q503:15 9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to TB 1. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 26 for 25 yards (31-L.Nichols; 44-C.Bruener). Play 4729 9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to TB 1. 1-K.Gainwell to TB 26 for 25 yards (31-L.Nichols; 44-C.Bruener).
Q503:07 (3:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 27 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker). Play 4752 (3:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 27 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker).
Q502:26 (2:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka. Play 4774 (2:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.
Q502:22 (2:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Irving. Play 4797 (2:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Irving.
Q502:18 Timeout #1 by TB at 02:18. Play 4832 Timeout #1 by TB at 02:18.
Q502:18 (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end to TB 37 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 4820 (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end to TB 37 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q502:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 41 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker). Play 4849 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 41 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker).
Q501:42 (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to 50 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen; 5-J.Ramsey). Play 4881 (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to 50 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen; 5-J.Ramsey).
Q501:20 (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Godwin (35-J.Dean). Play 4906 (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Godwin (35-J.Dean).
Q501:16 (1:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 7-B.Irving pushed ob at PIT 48 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson). Play 4941 (1:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 7-B.Irving pushed ob at PIT 48 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q501:09 (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Johnson (35-J.Dean). Play 4971 (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Johnson (35-J.Dean).
Q501:06 Timeout #1 by PIT at 01:06. Play 5006 Timeout #1 by PIT at 01:06.
Q501:06 (1:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 41 for -11 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Play 4994 (1:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 41 for -11 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
Down
4
Game seconds remaining 213
Half seconds remaining 213
Quarter seconds remaining 213
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB -3.01 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 37
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 213
Half seconds remaining 213
Quarter seconds remaining 213
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 5
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 49
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 213
Half seconds remaining 213
Quarter seconds remaining 213
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Penalty · TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst (23-D.Everette). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at PIT 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB 7.1 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 2
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 2
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2695
Half seconds remaining 895
Quarter seconds remaining 895
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2695
Half seconds remaining 895
Quarter seconds remaining 895
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB 2.17 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 2
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 2
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2695
Half seconds remaining 895
Quarter seconds remaining 895
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 24
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Game seconds remaining 2695
Half seconds remaining 895
Quarter seconds remaining 895
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q414:35 Penalty · PIT (14:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-G.Bernard. PENALTY on TB-94-C.Kancey, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 29 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB -4.5 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 873
Half seconds remaining 873
Quarter seconds remaining 873
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 873
Half seconds remaining 873
Quarter seconds remaining 873
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence TB -1.37 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 14
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 873
Half seconds remaining 873
Quarter seconds remaining 873
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 10
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Game seconds remaining 873
Half seconds remaining 873
Quarter seconds remaining 873
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q303:26 Fourth down · PIT (3:26) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 13 yards (51-N.Herbig). + Fourth down decision cost PIT 1.06 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.1564810473959186
Yardline 100 63
Elapsed share 0.6927777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -13
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1106
Half seconds remaining 1106
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 206
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1118660733151041 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11187/ NA/0.10131 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q112:57 Fourth down · TB (12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to TB 44, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-84-B.Sharp. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 24
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -2.180652328305817
Yardline 100 84
Elapsed share 0.03416666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3477
Half seconds remaining 1677
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 777
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3498541172901002 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.28890/ NA/0.34985 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:46 Fourth down · PIT (3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 40 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby) [23-T.Smith]. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.182229240396496
Yardline 100 42
Elapsed share 0.1872222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2926
Half seconds remaining 1126
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 226
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5515188359081337 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.55152/0.50203/0.51592 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:36 Fourth down · TB (11:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PIT 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.7331712798164063
Yardline 100 73
Elapsed share 0.3066666666666666
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2496
Half seconds remaining 696
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 696
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6855880319912098 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.66782/ NA/0.68559 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:12 Kick · TB (4:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.4476653697787331
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.43
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2052
Half seconds remaining 252
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 252
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.75571880161895 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73357/0.75572/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 1.93 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q202:00 Fourth down · PIT (2:00) 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to TB 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 23
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.386595661373137
Yardline 100 78
Elapsed share 0.4666666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -13
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1920
Half seconds remaining 120
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 120
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1631497695382235 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13632/ NA/0.16315 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:40 Fourth down · TB (1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 27, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for -4 yards (19-K.Johnson). + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.3780993992262394
Yardline 100 74
Elapsed share 0.4722222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 13
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1900
Half seconds remaining 100
Away timeouts remaining 0
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 100
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.794883637610809 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.75428/ NA/0.79488 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q314:18 Fourth down · PIT (14:18) 19-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.3229118398058206
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.5116666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1758
Half seconds remaining 1758
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 858
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2407103105021715 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22568/ NA/0.24071 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:05 Kick · TB (5:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.1746763616504992
Yardline 100 15
Elapsed share 0.6652777777777777
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1205
Half seconds remaining 1205
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 305
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8393868548295381 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.81168/0.83939/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 1.93 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 22 recorded events Q302:23 Fourth down · TB (2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PIT 32, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.1459019615243643
Yardline 100 70
Elapsed share 0.7102777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 13
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1043
Half seconds remaining 1043
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 143
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8658384867971488 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.84767/ NA/0.86584 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:11 Kick · PIT (8:11) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 19
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.07901214433499418
Yardline 100 21
Elapsed share 0.8636111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q407:10 Fourth down · TB (7:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen. + Fourth down decision cost TB 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.073834329190537
Yardline 100 75
Elapsed share 0.8805555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q402:00 Kick · PIT (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.0523200333299791
Yardline 100 40
Elapsed share 0.9666666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q111:56 Fourth down · PIT (11:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 0.98 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -2.03775005998582
Yardline 100 42
Elapsed share 0.05111111111111111
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q111:02 Penalty · TB (11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at TB 44 for 14 yards (29-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-40-D.Slaughter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 46. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:55 Kick · TB (7:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB 1.44 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam TB
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.559037291065433
Yardline 100 25
Elapsed share 0.1180555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 18
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam TB
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential Q107:51 Penalty · PIT 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 59 yards from TB 35 to PIT 6. 10-K.Wetjen to TB 41 for 53 yards (19-K.Johnson; 45-J.Trotter). PENALTY on PIT-55-C.Holcomb, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 35. Penalty on PIT-85-R.Tonyan, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q214:52 Kick · TB 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Extra point points above expectation TB 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:15 Penalty · PIT (13:15) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TB 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 8 yards (21-T.Homer). PENALTY on TB-38-K.Knowles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TB 13. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q207:15 Kick · PIT (7:15) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 1.78 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.5486053574815666
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.3791666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko -1
Q201:52 Penalty · TB (1:52) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:03 Kick · PIT (:03) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Field goal points above expectation PIT -0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q302:38 Fourth down · TB (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles right end to TB 30 for 3 yards (56-A.Highsmith). ** Injury Update: PIT-3-J.Brisker has returned to the game. Penalty on TB-69-C.Mauch, Offensive Holding, declined. + Observed ruling consequence TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:48 Kick · PIT 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Extra point points above expectation PIT 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q409:23 Penalty · PIT (9:23) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Warren pushed ob at TB 2 for 16 yards (5-I.Melifonwu). PENALTY on PIT-80-D.Washington, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TB 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:23 Kick · PIT (1:23) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Fourth down decision cost PIT 3.33 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam PIT
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 1
Away team PIT
Home team TB
Away total 20.5
Home total 18
Total line 38.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.05021271256970168
Yardline 100 1
Elapsed share 0.9769444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 20.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam PIT
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q400:13 Kick · TB (:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. + Fourth down decision cost TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 1.93 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q400:08 Penalty · PIT 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 62 yards from TB 35 to PIT 3. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 31 for 28 yards (38-K.Knowles). PENALTY on PIT-21-T.Homer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 31. + Observed ruling consequence PIT Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q503:15 Kick · PIT 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. + Extra point points above expectation PIT 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q502:18 Fourth down · TB (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end to TB 37 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson). + Fourth down decision cost TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q501:06 Fourth down · TB (1:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 41 for -11 yards (5-J.Ramsey). + Fourth down decision cost TB Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Verify this snapshot
SHA-256 f8f9feebec30adf67dd9a2d7bc88d102889e32fad0254a3caa3d845c8cbdae1e
nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:07 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 96d226ca2600b585577adaa1e8fbaec824c028593442c63b83d7f264f6745378nflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:55 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e1bea02e4593487222e04192cfe6ba265c792b193fbc38ad2e98db5a53b235a8Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: b3ee48f93624a0fad1f51abbab8782963d7e9efa1ad614199da0f2f0ec7bf815
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 3 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 10:11 PM UTC Version 2 ↗ Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 18, 2026, 9:07 PM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-6
Game seconds remaining 491
Half seconds remaining 491
Quarter seconds remaining 491
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2596991005958602 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.23169/0.25970/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PIT -0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 430
Half seconds remaining 430
Quarter seconds remaining 430
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5833377895521109 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.51028/ NA/0.58334 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-3
Game seconds remaining 120
Half seconds remaining 120
Quarter seconds remaining 120
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.2437564306896049 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.22312/0.24376/0.18264 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PIT -0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 3416
Half seconds remaining 1616
Quarter seconds remaining 716
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5976392555658974 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.59764/0.57167/0.58787 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 3175
Half seconds remaining 1375
Quarter seconds remaining 475
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4395944168587478 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.43959/0.42520/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation TB 1.93 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-10
Game seconds remaining 2235
Half seconds remaining 435
Quarter seconds remaining 435
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3312163807990535 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.33122/0.31338/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PIT -0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Quarter seconds remaining 83
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.749907030665558 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.74991/0.71665/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation PIT -0.12 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 5/5 eligible events modeled