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Fair 1 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
How this rating was calculated Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: DEN by 1.1; actual result: DEN by 3.
The 1.9-point difference was matched or exceeded in 666 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalty pattern Fair · 1/5 DEN minus SEA penalty-yard difference: -33 versus 0.8 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 499 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: SEA by 2.5; actual result: DEN by 3. The difference was 5.5 points.
4,831 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Fair · 1/5 No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Seattle Seahawks by 2.5
Final margin Denver Broncos by 3
Difference 5.5 points
Denver Broncos covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
4,831 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (66.4%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score DEN by 1.1
Actual final margin
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates · amber = experimental overtime · circle = recorded result
Denver Broncos chance to win during the game 160 preplay estimates across 189 recorded game entries; 4 use an experimental overtime model. 28 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The shaded region marks overtime. A separate circle identifies the recorded final outcome, not a forecast. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
DEN Observed ruling consequence -1.88 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence -0.64 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 6 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q2 · 01:12 Recorded game event
Seattle Seahawks · Play 1880 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 42 for 33 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.3 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 07:16 Recorded game event
Seattle Seahawks · Play 3611 (7:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones (31-K.Abrams-Draine) at DEN 19. 22-B.Jones pushed ob at DEN 27 for 8 yards (10-C.Kupp). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Horton (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.1 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 09:07 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 1286 (9:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 8 yards (91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-91-B.Murphy, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 29.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 189 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 189 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 3-W.Lutz kicks 63 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 2. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 29 for 27 yards (34-J.Skinner). Play 40 3-W.Lutz kicks 63 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 2. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 29 for 27 yards (34-J.Skinner).
Q114:56 (14:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 34 for 5 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 71 (14:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 34 for 5 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q114:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 36 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton; 15-N.Bonitto). Play 96 (14:19) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 36 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton; 15-N.Bonitto).
Q113:51 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 37 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q205:23 Penalty · DEN (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at SEA 21 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN 5.35 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2119
Half seconds remaining 319
Quarter seconds remaining 319
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. overtime_model_experimental: Overtime estimates are partial, empirical and uncalibrated; unavailable states remain gaps. Terminal values are observed results, not predictions. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 14, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1a7dac63280288f5a30795bbaf3949cf89f93dbb4607b216b9a2d1eefee34adcnflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 16, 2026, 4:15 AM UTC
DEN by 3
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
666 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 499 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Brad Rogers Head official Assignment: Football Zebras
In 80 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 104.4 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6.2 / 50.6 yd per game. Away teams: 6.4 / 53.8 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Brad Rogers; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Denver Broncos · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Denver Broncos · Opponent penalties Opponent SEA was charged 7 penalties for 75 yards.
Seattle Seahawks · Sacks allowed Allowed 5 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Seattle Seahawks · Opponent penalties Opponent DEN was charged 8 penalties for 42 yards.
Explore the historical comparisons (1) These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
Denver Broncos Historical context
Winning-profile context DEN won. Prior matching team-games: 105 wins, 691 losses, 0 ties among 796 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
Total offense below 200 yards 105 / 796 prior matching team-games were wins
691 losses · 0 ties among the matches
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
Recorded final result: Denver Broncos won. This point is an observation, not a forecast. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 160 model estimates across 189 recorded game entries, plus 1 recorded final result.
28 entries have no estimate : 7 overtime entries and 21 other recorded states.
The overtime model requires at least 20 comparable prior games with matching possession rules. Sparse or ambiguous states stay unrated. It estimates wins, losses and ties separately; see coverage and limits .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The final circle shows the recorded outcome. A tied game has 0% win and 100% tie at that point.
View all chart data (189 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence 5.35 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence 2.91 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence 0.86 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence 0.72 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence -0.56 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence -0.7 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Intervening state change
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence -0.78 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence -0.84 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence -3.12 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence -0.84 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence 1.26 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence 0.82 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
SEA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.50949/0.47308/0.53500 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37607/ NA/0.39690 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 1.88 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57380/0.55501/0.53850 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37946/0.31725/0.36793 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0.75 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42988/0.40597/0.42235 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76399/ NA/0.78560 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 1.33 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19719/ NA/0.18384 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73574/ NA/0.77751 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0.26 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20894/0.20638/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77697/ NA/0.79882 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10138/0.09896/0.10803 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88190/ NA/0.89625 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
SEA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08174/0.07865/0.05676 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46149/ NA/0.60541 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65897/ NA/0.74007 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported overtime or period
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
DEN Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.62 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
SEA Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.62 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 133 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
DEN Field goal points above expectation 0.85 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 30th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
SEA Field goal points above expectation -1.32 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 51st percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DEN Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
SEA Extra point points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 50 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
DEN Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 189 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
SEA Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 189 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
SEA Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.07 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
87 of 87 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 87 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 1.49 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
87 of 87 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 87 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.42 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
SEA Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.52 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Presnap called penalties above expectation -0.14 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.67 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
56 of 56 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 56 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.3 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
56 of 56 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 56 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Defensive penalty on SEA awarded DEN a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 6.9 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:24 Recorded game event
Seattle Seahawks · Play 3958 (3:24) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 33 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad; 23-J.Barron). PENALTY on SEA-76-G.Zabel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 26 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 3.7 percentage points across this play.
Show 2 more plays Q5 · 10:00 Recorded game event
Seattle Seahawks · Play 4491 3-W.Lutz kicks 57 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 8. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 12. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 23 for 11 yards (26-D.Key). PENALTY on SEA-48-T.Knight, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 23.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Q5 · 04:57 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4788 (4:57) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on SEA-13-E.Jones, Leverage, declined.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. (13:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at SEA 44 for 8 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Play 118
(13:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at SEA 44 for 8 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q113:17 (13:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 48 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 148 (13:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 48 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q112:43 (12:43) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to DEN 45 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 173 (12:43) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to DEN 45 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q112:03 (12:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at DEN 39 for 6 yards (29-J.McMillian). Play 195 (12:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at DEN 39 for 6 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q111:31 (11:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at DEN 45 for -6 yards (29-J.McMillian). Play 225 (11:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at DEN 45 for -6 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q110:49 (10:49) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 49 for -6 yards (51-Q.Robinson). Play 245 (10:49) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 49 for -6 yards (51-Q.Robinson).
Q110:06 (10:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. Play 265 (10:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q109:59 (9:59) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to DEN 12 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 285 (9:59) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to DEN 12 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q109:22 (9:22) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 12 for no gain (58-D.Hall). Play 314 (9:22) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 12 for no gain (58-D.Hall).
Q108:39 (8:39) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle (20-J.Love) [99-L.Williams]. Play 336 (8:39) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle (20-J.Love) [99-L.Williams].
Q108:36 (8:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to SEA 45, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 359 (8:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to SEA 45, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q108:29 (8:29) PENALTY on DEN-93-D.Jones, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 45 - No Play. Play 378 (8:29) PENALTY on DEN-93-D.Jones, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 45 - No Play.
Q108:29 (8:29) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to DEN 48 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 409 (8:29) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to DEN 48 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q107:57 (7:57) 23-E.Wilson right guard to DEN 42 for 6 yards (30-T.Rapp; 99-Z.Allen). Play 431 (7:57) 23-E.Wilson right guard to DEN 42 for 6 yards (30-T.Rapp; 99-Z.Allen).
Q107:19 Timeout #1 by SEA at 07:19. Play 465 Timeout #1 by SEA at 07:19.
Q107:19 (7:19) 33-V.Jones left end to DEN 37 for 5 yards (21-R.Moss). Play 453 (7:19) 33-V.Jones left end to DEN 37 for 5 yards (21-R.Moss).
Q106:43 (6:43) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 81-E.Saubert [93-D.Jones]. Play 482 (6:43) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 81-E.Saubert [93-D.Jones].
Q106:39 (6:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (29-J.McMillian). Play 505 (6:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (29-J.McMillian).
Q106:35 (6:35) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 528 (6:35) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q106:31 5-J.Myers kicks 63 yards from SEA 35 to DEN 2. 37-S.Fresch to DEN 26 for 24 yards (85-I.Charles). Play 548 5-J.Myers kicks 63 yards from SEA 35 to DEN 2. 37-S.Fresch to DEN 26 for 24 yards (85-I.Charles).
Q106:24 (6:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 34 for 8 yards (39-T.Okada). Play 578 (6:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 34 for 8 yards (39-T.Okada).
Q105:51 (5:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on DEN-77-Q.Meinerz, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 34 - No Play. Play 603 (5:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on DEN-77-Q.Meinerz, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 34 - No Play.
Q105:46 (5:46) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 45 for 16 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 637 (5:46) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 45 for 16 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q105:04 (5:04) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 49 for 4 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 13-E.Jones). Play 662 (5:04) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 49 for 4 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 13-E.Jones).
Q104:32 (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SEA 48 for 3 yards (20-J.Love). Play 684 (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SEA 48 for 3 yards (20-J.Love).
Q103:53 (3:53) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 709 (3:53) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q103:46 (3:46) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie up the middle to SEA 42 for 6 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 732 (3:46) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie up the middle to SEA 42 for 6 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q103:11 (3:11) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to SEA 40 for 2 yards (91-B.Murphy; 58-D.Hall). Play 754 (3:11) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to SEA 40 for 2 yards (91-B.Murphy; 58-D.Hall).
Q102:36 (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle. Play 776 (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle.
Q102:32 (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram to SEA 31 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 799 (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram to SEA 31 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q101:48 (1:48) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to SEA 28 for 3 yards (99-L.Williams). Play 824 (1:48) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to SEA 28 for 3 yards (99-L.Williams).
Q101:06 (1:06) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to SEA 27 for 1 yard (48-T.Knight; 3-N.Emmanwori). Play 846 (1:06) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to SEA 27 for 1 yard (48-T.Knight; 3-N.Emmanwori).
Q100:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to SEA 18 for 9 yards (28-N.Pritchett) [0-D.Lawrence]. Play 868 (:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to SEA 18 for 9 yards (28-N.Pritchett) [0-D.Lawrence].
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 893 Q215:00 (15:00) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin to SEA 16 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori; 94-M.Morris). Play 913 (15:00) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin to SEA 16 for 2 yards (3-N.Emmanwori; 94-M.Morris).
Q214:17 (14:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SEA 4 for 12 yards (39-T.Okada). Play 938 (14:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to SEA 4 for 12 yards (39-T.Okada).
Q213:31 (13:31) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at SEA 4 for no gain (48-T.Knight). Play 963 (13:31) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at SEA 4 for no gain (48-T.Knight).
Q212:56 (12:56) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 990 (12:56) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q212:52 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 1013 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q212:52 3-W.Lutz kicks 60 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 44 for 39 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine; 51-Q.Robinson). FUMBLES (31-K.Abrams-Draine), ball out of bounds at SEA 44. Play 1028 3-W.Lutz kicks 60 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 44 for 39 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine; 51-Q.Robinson). FUMBLES (31-K.Abrams-Draine), ball out of bounds at SEA 44.
Q212:44 (12:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 49 for 5 yards (26-D.Key) [95-S.Jones]. Play 1063 (12:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 49 for 5 yards (26-D.Key) [95-S.Jones].
Q212:06 (12:06) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to DEN 49 for 2 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 49-A.Singleton). Play 1088 (12:06) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to DEN 49 for 2 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 49-A.Singleton).
Q211:27 (11:27) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson right guard to DEN 45 for 4 yards (99-Z.Allen). Play 1110 (11:27) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson right guard to DEN 45 for 4 yards (99-Z.Allen).
Q210:49 (10:49) 23-E.Wilson left end to DEN 45 for no gain (96-E.Uwazurike). Play 1132 (10:49) 23-E.Wilson left end to DEN 45 for no gain (96-E.Uwazurike).
Q210:08 (10:08) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right. Play 1154 (10:08) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right.
Q209:59 (9:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba. Play 1177 (9:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.
Q209:55 (9:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 24 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. Play 1200 (9:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 24 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
Q209:47 (9:47) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 21 for no gain (48-T.Knight). Play 1234 (9:47) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 21 for no gain (48-T.Knight).
Q209:11 (9:11) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 1263 (9:11) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q209:07 (9:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 8 yards (91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-91-B.Murphy, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 29. Play 1286 (9:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 8 yards (91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-91-B.Murphy, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 29.
Q208:43 (8:43) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to SEA 40 for 16 yards (13-E.Jones; 39-T.Okada). Play 1322 (8:43) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to SEA 40 for 16 yards (13-E.Jones; 39-T.Okada).
Q208:01 (8:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to SEA 33 for 7 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 1344 (8:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to SEA 33 for 7 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q207:28 (7:28) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left guard to SEA 31 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams; 13-E.Jones). Play 1369 (7:28) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left guard to SEA 31 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams; 13-E.Jones).
Q206:48 (6:48) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey right tackle to SEA 24 for 7 yards (29-J.Jobe). Play 1391 (6:48) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey right tackle to SEA 24 for 7 yards (29-J.Jobe).
Q206:08 (6:08) 27-J.Dobbins right end to SEA 21 for 3 yards (99-L.Williams). Play 1413 (6:08) 27-J.Dobbins right end to SEA 21 for 3 yards (99-L.Williams).
Q205:23 (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at SEA 21 - No Play. Play 1435 (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at SEA 21 - No Play.
Q205:19 (5:19) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 12-R.Harvey. 12-R.Harvey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1469 (5:19) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 12-R.Harvey. 12-R.Harvey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q205:15 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 1496 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q205:15 3-W.Lutz kicks 62 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 3, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-3-W.Lutz, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at SEA 40. Play 1512 3-W.Lutz kicks 62 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 3, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-3-W.Lutz, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at SEA 40.
Q205:15 (5:15) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left. Play 1546 (5:15) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left.
Q205:10 (5:10) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left end to DEN 49 for 11 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 1569 (5:10) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left end to DEN 49 for 11 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q204:32 (4:32) 33-V.Jones right end to DEN 44 for 5 yards (52-J.Elliss). Play 1591 (4:32) 33-V.Jones right end to DEN 44 for 5 yards (52-J.Elliss).
Q203:55 (3:55) 33-V.Jones right end to DEN 35 for 9 yards (26-D.Key). Play 1613 (3:55) 33-V.Jones right end to DEN 35 for 9 yards (26-D.Key).
Q203:15 (3:15) 23-E.Wilson right end to DEN 35 for no gain (49-A.Singleton; 51-Q.Robinson). Play 1635 (3:15) 23-E.Wilson right end to DEN 35 for no gain (49-A.Singleton; 51-Q.Robinson).
Q202:34 (2:34) 22-R.Shaheed left end to DEN 30 for 5 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), touched at DEN 33, RECOVERED by DEN-40-J.Strnad at DEN 34. SEA-18-E.Arroyo was injured during the play. Play 1657 (2:34) 22-R.Shaheed left end to DEN 30 for 5 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), touched at DEN 33, RECOVERED by DEN-40-J.Strnad at DEN 34. SEA-18-E.Arroyo was injured during the play.
Q202:24 (2:24) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 34 for no gain (48-T.Knight). Play 1698 (2:24) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 34 for no gain (48-T.Knight).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram to DEN 38 for 4 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 13-E.Jones). Play 1730 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram to DEN 38 for 4 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 13-E.Jones).
Q201:54 Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:54. Play 1779 Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:54.
Q201:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Play 1767 (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
Q201:49 (1:49) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 1813 (1:49) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q201:43 (1:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp [97-M.Roach]. Play 1832 (1:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp [97-M.Roach].
Q201:35 (1:35) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 25 for 12 yards (30-T.Rapp; 22-B.Jones). Play 1855 (1:35) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 25 for 12 yards (30-T.Rapp; 22-B.Jones).
Q201:12 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 42 for 33 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed. Play 1880 (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 42 for 33 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed.
Q201:07 (1:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 1945 (1:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q201:02 (1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 33 for 8 yards (29-J.McMillian). Play 1968 (1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 33 for 8 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q200:54 Timeout #1 by DEN at 00:54. Play 2005 Timeout #1 by DEN at 00:54.
Q200:54 (:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. Play 1993 (:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
Q200:47 (:47) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 12-R.Harvey. PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DEN 12 - No Play. Play 2019 (:47) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 12-R.Harvey. PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DEN 12 - No Play.
Q200:42 (:42) 12-R.Harvey right tackle to DEN 7 for 1 yard (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 2053 (:42) 12-R.Harvey right tackle to DEN 7 for 1 yard (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2075 Q315:00 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35. Play 2095 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35.
Q315:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 10 yards (39-T.Okada). Play 2112 (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 10 yards (39-T.Okada).
Q314:20 (14:20) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle to DEN 44 for -1 yards (99-L.Williams). Play 2137 (14:20) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle to DEN 44 for -1 yards (99-L.Williams).
Q313:44 (13:44) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 44 for no gain (0-D.Lawrence). Play 2159 (13:44) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 44 for no gain (0-D.Lawrence).
Q313:00 (13:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left [3-N.Emmanwori]. Play 2181 (13:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left [3-N.Emmanwori].
Q312:51 (12:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Play 2204 (12:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
Q312:45 (12:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 33-V.Jones to SEA 15 for -1 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 2224 (12:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 33-V.Jones to SEA 15 for -1 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q312:07 (12:07) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay. Play 2256 (12:07) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay.
Q312:04 (12:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at SEA 30 for 15 yards (15-N.Bonitto). Play 2293 (12:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at SEA 30 for 15 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
Q311:33 (11:33) 33-V.Jones right guard to SEA 31 for 1 yard (99-Z.Allen). Play 2328 (11:33) 33-V.Jones right guard to SEA 31 for 1 yard (99-Z.Allen).
Q310:52 (10:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 27 for 42 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 2350 (10:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 27 for 42 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q310:07 (10:07) 23-E.Wilson right tackle to DEN 24 for 3 yards (92-D.Tillman; 95-S.Jones). Play 2375 (10:07) 23-E.Wilson right tackle to DEN 24 for 3 yards (92-D.Tillman; 95-S.Jones).
Q309:25 (9:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left. Play 2397 (9:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left.
Q309:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at DEN 29 for -5 yards (52-J.Elliss). Play 2420 (9:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at DEN 29 for -5 yards (52-J.Elliss).
Q308:34 (8:34) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 2440 (8:34) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q308:30 (8:30) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins ran ob at DEN 41 for 4 yards (29-J.Jobe). ** Injury Update: DEN-17-J.Waddle has returned to the game. Play 2461 (8:30) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins ran ob at DEN 41 for 4 yards (29-J.Jobe). ** Injury Update: DEN-17-J.Waddle has returned to the game.
Q308:04 (8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 60-L.Wattenberg to DEN 36 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by DEN-10-B.Nix at DEN 35. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 19-M.Mims. Play 2498 (8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 60-L.Wattenberg to DEN 36 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by DEN-10-B.Nix at DEN 35. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 19-M.Mims.
Q307:59 (7:59) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle. Play 2546 (7:59) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle.
Q307:55 (7:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 20 for 13 yards (26-D.Key). Play 2569 (7:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 20 for 13 yards (26-D.Key).
Q307:46 (7:46) PENALTY on SEA-76-G.Zabel, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20 - No Play. Play 2600 (7:46) PENALTY on SEA-76-G.Zabel, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20 - No Play.
Q307:46 (7:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 17 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 2631 (7:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 17 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q307:05 (7:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 31 for 14 yards (22-B.Jones; 30-T.Rapp). Play 2656 (7:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 31 for 14 yards (22-B.Jones; 30-T.Rapp).
Q306:19 (6:19) PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 31 - No Play. Play 2681 (6:19) PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 31 - No Play.
Q306:09 (6:09) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Horton (51-Q.Robinson). Play 2705 (6:09) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Horton (51-Q.Robinson).
Q306:06 (6:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 42 for 6 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 2728 (6:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 42 for 6 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q305:29 (5:29) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to SEA 43 for 1 yard (22-B.Jones; 52-J.Elliss). Play 2753 (5:29) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to SEA 43 for 1 yard (22-B.Jones; 52-J.Elliss).
Q304:45 (4:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 47 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton; 31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 2778 (4:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 47 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton; 31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q304:05 (4:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 33 for -14 yards (sack split by 99-Z.Allen and 15-N.Bonitto). Play 2807 (4:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 33 for -14 yards (sack split by 99-Z.Allen and 15-N.Bonitto).
Q303:32 (3:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 26 for 17 yards (46-J.Ciarlo; 81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on DEN-37-S.Fresch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20. Play 2827 (3:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 26 for 17 yards (46-J.Ciarlo; 81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on DEN-37-S.Fresch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.
Q303:21 (3:21) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to DEN 12 for 2 yards (29-J.Jobe). Play 2866 (3:21) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to DEN 12 for 2 yards (29-J.Jobe).
Q302:42 (2:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 13 for 1 yard (57-C.O'Toole; 91-B.Murphy). Play 2903 (2:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 13 for 1 yard (57-C.O'Toole; 91-B.Murphy).
Q302:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. Play 2928 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton.
Q301:54 (1:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to SEA 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for -4 yards (46-A.Prentice). PENALTY on SEA-52-P.O'Connell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 34. Play 2951 (1:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to SEA 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for -4 yards (46-A.Prentice). PENALTY on SEA-52-P.O'Connell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 34.
Q301:40 (1:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 37 for 13 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine) [51-Q.Robinson]. Play 2977 (1:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 37 for 13 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine) [51-Q.Robinson].
Q300:58 (:58) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 48 for 11 yards (22-B.Jones; 49-A.Singleton). Play 3033 (:58) 23-E.Wilson left guard to SEA 48 for 11 yards (22-B.Jones; 49-A.Singleton).
Q300:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to SEA 49 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones; 49-A.Singleton). Play 3055 (:24) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to SEA 49 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones; 49-A.Singleton).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3077 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 23-E.Wilson (99-Z.Allen). Play 3097 (15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 23-E.Wilson (99-Z.Allen).
Q414:57 (14:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton to DEN 38 for 13 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 3120 (14:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton to DEN 38 for 13 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q414:25 (14:25) 36-G.Holani left end to DEN 39 for -1 yards (93-D.Jones). Play 3145 (14:25) 36-G.Holani left end to DEN 39 for -1 yards (93-D.Jones).
Q413:42 (13:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed [49-A.Singleton]. Play 3167 (13:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed [49-A.Singleton].
Q413:37 (13:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at DEN 46 for -7 yards (sack split by 40-J.Strnad and 97-M.Roach). Play 3190 (13:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at DEN 46 for -7 yards (sack split by 40-J.Strnad and 97-M.Roach).
Q412:58 (12:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. Play 3210 (12:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
Q412:52 (12:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to DEN 12 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). Play 3230 (12:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims to DEN 12 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q412:14 (12:14) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to DEN 21 for 9 yards (39-T.Okada; 20-J.Love). Play 3265 (12:14) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to DEN 21 for 9 yards (39-T.Okada; 20-J.Love).
Q411:29 (11:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at DEN 24 for 3 yards (29-J.Jobe; 48-T.Knight). Play 3287 (11:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at DEN 24 for 3 yards (29-J.Jobe; 48-T.Knight).
Q410:55 (10:55) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 24 for no gain (48-T.Knight). Play 3317 (10:55) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 24 for no gain (48-T.Knight).
Q410:14 (10:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 30 for 6 yards (16-T.Diggs). (Virtual Measurement). Play 3342 (10:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to DEN 30 for 6 yards (16-T.Diggs). (Virtual Measurement).
Q409:28 (9:28) (Run formation) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play. Play 3367 (9:28) (Run formation) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play.
Q409:28 (9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to SEA 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 8 yards (34-J.Skinner). Play 3394 (9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to SEA 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 8 yards (34-J.Skinner).
Q409:18 (9:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 49 for 16 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 3420 (9:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 49 for 16 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q408:44 (8:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp. PENALTY on DEN-23-J.Barron, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play. Play 3445 (8:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp. PENALTY on DEN-23-J.Barron, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play.
Q408:40 (8:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 15-T.Horton [92-D.Tillman]. Play 3479 (8:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 15-T.Horton [92-D.Tillman].
Q408:36 (8:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Kupp [97-M.Roach]. Play 3502 (8:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Kupp [97-M.Roach].
Q408:29 (8:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 45 - No Play. Play 3525 (8:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 45 - No Play.
Q408:29 (8:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to DEN 39 for 11 yards (30-T.Rapp; 49-A.Singleton). Play 3561 (8:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to DEN 39 for 11 yards (30-T.Rapp; 49-A.Singleton).
Q407:50 (7:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 32 for 7 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 3586 (7:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 32 for 7 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q407:16 (7:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones (31-K.Abrams-Draine) at DEN 19. 22-B.Jones pushed ob at DEN 27 for 8 yards (10-C.Kupp). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Horton (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 3611 (7:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones (31-K.Abrams-Draine) at DEN 19. 22-B.Jones pushed ob at DEN 27 for 8 yards (10-C.Kupp). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 15-T.Horton (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q407:11 (7:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba [96-E.Uwazurike]. Play 3655 (7:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba [96-E.Uwazurike].
Q407:06 (7:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end pushed ob at DEN 14 for 18 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 3725 (7:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end pushed ob at DEN 14 for 18 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q406:27 (6:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (99-Z.Allen) [97-M.Roach]. Play 3752 (6:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (99-Z.Allen) [97-M.Roach].
Q406:23 (6:23) 36-G.Holani left guard to DEN 1 for 13 yards (30-T.Rapp; 22-B.Jones). Play 3775 (6:23) 36-G.Holani left guard to DEN 1 for 13 yards (30-T.Rapp; 22-B.Jones).
Q405:47 (5:47) (No Huddle) 36-G.Holani right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3797 (5:47) (No Huddle) 36-G.Holani right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q405:41 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 22-R.Shaheed is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 3820 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 22-R.Shaheed is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q405:41 5-J.Myers kicks 61 yards from SEA 35 to DEN 4. 19-M.Mims to DEN 28 for 24 yards (38-B.Russell; 48-T.Knight). Play 3838 5-J.Myers kicks 61 yards from SEA 35 to DEN 4. 19-M.Mims to DEN 28 for 24 yards (38-B.Russell; 48-T.Knight).
Q405:35 (5:35) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked ob at DEN 25 for -3 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 3868 (5:35) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked ob at DEN 25 for -3 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q404:58 (4:58) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to DEN 28 for 3 yards (99-L.Williams). Play 3897 (4:58) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to DEN 28 for 3 yards (99-L.Williams).
Q404:15 (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 18 for -10 yards (3-N.Emmanwori). Play 3919 (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 18 for -10 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q403:31 (3:31) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to SEA 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 3939 (3:31) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to SEA 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q403:24 (3:24) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 33 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad; 23-J.Barron). PENALTY on SEA-76-G.Zabel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 26 - No Play. Play 3958 (3:24) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 33 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad; 23-J.Barron). PENALTY on SEA-76-G.Zabel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 26 - No Play.
Q403:19 (3:19) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 20 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton; 99-Z.Allen). Play 3991 (3:19) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 20 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton; 99-Z.Allen).
Q402:42 (2:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 48 for 32 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 4013 (2:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 48 for 32 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q402:05 (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end to DEN 47 for 1 yard (29-J.McMillian). Play 4038 (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end to DEN 47 for 1 yard (29-J.McMillian).
Q401:59 (1:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 39 for 8 yards (30-T.Rapp). Play 4060 (1:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 39 for 8 yards (30-T.Rapp).
Q401:31 (1:31) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton). Play 4092 (1:31) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton).
Q401:25 (1:25) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 33 for 2 yards (20-J.Love). Play 4119 (1:25) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 33 for 2 yards (20-J.Love).
Q401:21 Timeout #1 by SEA at 01:21. Play 4153 Timeout #1 by SEA at 01:21.
Q401:21 (1:21) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 33 for no gain (13-E.Jones). Play 4141 (1:21) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 33 for no gain (13-E.Jones).
Q401:16 Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:16. Play 4182 Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:16.
Q401:16 (1:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 12-R.Harvey (7-U.Nwosu). Play 4170 (1:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 12-R.Harvey (7-U.Nwosu).
Q401:10 (1:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 46 for 31 yards (16-J.Crawshaw). Play 4200 (1:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 46 for 31 yards (16-J.Crawshaw).
Q400:57 (:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp. Play 4231 (:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
Q400:52 (:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner to 50 for 4 yards (26-D.Key) [49-A.Singleton]. Play 4254 (:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner to 50 for 4 yards (26-D.Key) [49-A.Singleton].
Q400:41 Timeout #3 by SEA at 00:41. Play 4291 Timeout #3 by SEA at 00:41.
Q400:41 (:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 40 for 10 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 4279 (:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to DEN 40 for 10 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q400:26 (:26) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4311 (:26) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to DEN 23 for 17 yards (29-J.McMillian). Play 4334 (:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp to DEN 23 for 17 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q400:11 (:11) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 4359 (:11) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:10 (:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at DEN 16 for 7 yards. Play 4382 (:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at DEN 16 for 7 yards.
Q400:07 (:07) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. Play 4412 (:07) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q400:03 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35. Play 4432 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35.
Q400:03 (:03) 10-B.Nix kneels to DEN 34 for -1 yards. Play 4449 (:03) 10-B.Nix kneels to DEN 34 for -1 yards.
Q400:00 END QUARTER 4 Play 4471 Q510:00 3-W.Lutz kicks 57 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 8. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 12. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 23 for 11 yards (26-D.Key). PENALTY on SEA-48-T.Knight, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 23. Play 4491 3-W.Lutz kicks 57 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 8. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 12. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 23 for 11 yards (26-D.Key). PENALTY on SEA-48-T.Knight, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 23.
Q509:55 (9:55) 23-E.Wilson right tackle to SEA 18 for 5 yards (93-D.Jones; 49-A.Singleton). Play 4551 (9:55) 23-E.Wilson right tackle to SEA 18 for 5 yards (93-D.Jones; 49-A.Singleton).
Q509:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 20 for 2 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 4573 (9:17) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 20 for 2 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q508:34 (8:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 25 for 5 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 4620 (8:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 25 for 5 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q507:58 (7:58) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right guard to SEA 28 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad; 23-J.Barron). Play 4645 (7:58) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right guard to SEA 28 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad; 23-J.Barron).
Q507:20 (7:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp (95-S.Jones). Play 4667 (7:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp (95-S.Jones).
Q507:17 (7:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at SEA 43. 29-J.McMillian ran ob at SEA 43 for no gain. Play 4690 (7:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at SEA 43. 29-J.McMillian ran ob at SEA 43 for no gain.
Q507:11 (7:11) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left end to SEA 38 for 5 yards (3-N.Emmanwori; 21-D.Witherspoon). Play 4722 (7:11) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left end to SEA 38 for 5 yards (3-N.Emmanwori; 21-D.Witherspoon).
Q506:26 (6:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle to SEA 35 for 3 yards (13-E.Jones). Play 4744 (6:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle to SEA 35 for 3 yards (13-E.Jones).
Q505:40 (5:40) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right end to SEA 35 for no gain (48-T.Knight). Play 4766 (5:40) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix right end to SEA 35 for no gain (48-T.Knight).
Q504:57 (4:57) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on SEA-13-E.Jones, Leverage, declined. Play 4788 (4:57) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on SEA-13-E.Jones, Leverage, declined.
Game seconds remaining 2119
Half seconds remaining 319
Quarter seconds remaining 319
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN 2.91 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2119
Half seconds remaining 319
Quarter seconds remaining 319
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 7
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 21
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 4
Game seconds remaining 2119
Half seconds remaining 319
Quarter seconds remaining 319
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:44 Penalty · SEA (8:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp. PENALTY on DEN-23-J.Barron, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN -3.12 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 520
Half seconds remaining 520
Quarter seconds remaining 520
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 520
Half seconds remaining 520
Quarter seconds remaining 520
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN -0.84 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 520
Half seconds remaining 520
Quarter seconds remaining 520
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 51
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 520
Half seconds remaining 520
Quarter seconds remaining 520
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q108:29 Penalty · SEA (8:29) PENALTY on DEN-93-D.Jones, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN -1.88 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3209
Half seconds remaining 1409
Quarter seconds remaining 509
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3209
Half seconds remaining 1409
Quarter seconds remaining 509
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN -0.64 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3209
Half seconds remaining 1409
Quarter seconds remaining 509
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 55
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 3209
Half seconds remaining 1409
Quarter seconds remaining 509
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q200:54 Fourth down · SEA (:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 1.33 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.3592598744442573
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.485
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -11
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1854
Half seconds remaining 54
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 54
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.197189420644809 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.19719/ NA/0.18384 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q408:29 Penalty · SEA (8:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 45 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN 1.26 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 15
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 509
Half seconds remaining 509
Quarter seconds remaining 509
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 509
Half seconds remaining 509
Quarter seconds remaining 509
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN 0.82 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 15
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 50
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 509
Half seconds remaining 509
Quarter seconds remaining 509
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 3
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 45
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 509
Half seconds remaining 509
Quarter seconds remaining 509
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q307:46 Penalty · SEA (7:46) PENALTY on SEA-76-G.Zabel, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN 0.86 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 15
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 85
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1366
Half seconds remaining 1366
Quarter seconds remaining 466
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 80
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1366
Half seconds remaining 1366
Quarter seconds remaining 466
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN 0.72 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 15
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 85
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1366
Half seconds remaining 1366
Quarter seconds remaining 466
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 80
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1366
Half seconds remaining 1366
Quarter seconds remaining 466
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q409:28 Penalty · DEN (9:28) (Run formation) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on DEN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN -0.78 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 75
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 568
Half seconds remaining 568
Quarter seconds remaining 568
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 70
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 568
Half seconds remaining 568
Quarter seconds remaining 568
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN -0.84 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 75
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 568
Half seconds remaining 568
Quarter seconds remaining 568
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 70
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 11
Game seconds remaining 568
Half seconds remaining 568
Quarter seconds remaining 568
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q209:55 Fourth down · SEA (9:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 24 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0.75 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.6553419247627286
Yardline 100 45
Elapsed share 0.3347222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -4
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2395
Half seconds remaining 595
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 595
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4298798244036184 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.42988/0.40597/0.42235 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:19 Penalty · SEA (6:19) PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 31 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN -0.56 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1279
Half seconds remaining 1279
Quarter seconds remaining 379
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1279
Half seconds remaining 1279
Quarter seconds remaining 379
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN -0.7 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 64
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1279
Half seconds remaining 1279
Quarter seconds remaining 379
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 10
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 69
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -11
Game seconds remaining 1279
Half seconds remaining 1279
Quarter seconds remaining 379
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q110:06 Fourth down · SEA (10:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.803310360847355
Yardline 100 51
Elapsed share 0.08166666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3306
Half seconds remaining 1506
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 606
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.534995519529969 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.50949/0.47308/0.53500 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q108:36 Fourth down · DEN (8:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to SEA 45, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.631702690826615
Yardline 100 88
Elapsed share 0.1066666666666667
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3216
Half seconds remaining 1416
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 516
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.3969010884852112 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37607/ NA/0.39690 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:46 Fourth down · DEN (3:46) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie up the middle to SEA 42 for 6 yards (13-E.Jones). + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.182229240396496
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.1872222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2926
Half seconds remaining 1126
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 226
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3794643037015917 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37946/0.31725/0.36793 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 25 recorded events Q201:49 Fourth down · DEN (1:49) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.3818993613628867
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.4697222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 11
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1909
Half seconds remaining 109
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 109
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7856024210250261 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.76399/ NA/0.78560 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q312:51 Fourth down · DEN (12:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.2931582828101593
Yardline 100 56
Elapsed share 0.5358333333333334
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q307:55 Fourth down · DEN (7:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 20 for 13 yards (26-D.Key). + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.2109927533627817
Yardline 100 59
Elapsed share 0.6180555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q412:58 Fourth down · SEA (12:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 18
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.108688985027699
Yardline 100 46
Elapsed share 0.7838888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q409:28 Fourth down · DEN (9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to SEA 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 8 yards (34-J.Skinner). + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.0860696732191695
Yardline 100 75
Elapsed share 0.8422222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q403:31 Fourth down · DEN (3:31) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to SEA 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 20
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.05788686228551387
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.9413888888888889
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q401:10 Fourth down · DEN (1:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 46 for 31 yards (16-J.Crawshaw). + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.04949263094201131
Yardline 100 67
Elapsed share 0.9805555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 19
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -2.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0 Q106:35 Kick · SEA (6:35) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 1.88 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -1.426436848947092
Yardline 100 37
Elapsed share 0.1402777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential Q105:51 Penalty · DEN (5:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on DEN-77-Q.Meinerz, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q212:52 Kick · DEN 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Extra point points above expectation DEN 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q212:52 Fumble · SEA 3-W.Lutz kicks 60 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 44 for 39 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine; 51-Q.Robinson). FUMBLES (31-K.Abrams-Draine), ball out of bounds at SEA 44. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q209:07 Penalty · DEN (9:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 8 yards (91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-91-B.Murphy, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 29. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:15 Kick · DEN 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Extra point points above expectation DEN 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q205:15 Penalty · SEA 3-W.Lutz kicks 62 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 3, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-3-W.Lutz, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at SEA 40. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q202:34 Fumble · SEA (2:34) 22-R.Shaheed left end to DEN 30 for 5 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), touched at DEN 33, RECOVERED by DEN-40-J.Strnad at DEN 34. SEA-18-E.Arroyo was injured during the play. + Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.62 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation SEA -0.62 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q200:47 Penalty · DEN (:47) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 12-R.Harvey. PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DEN 12 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q308:34 Kick · SEA (8:34) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0.26 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.2203367641227464
Yardline 100 29
Elapsed share 0.6072222222222222
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q308:04 Fumble · DEN (8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 60-L.Wattenberg to DEN 36 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by DEN-10-B.Nix at DEN 35. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 19-M.Mims. + Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.62 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation SEA -0.62 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q303:32 Penalty · SEA (3:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 26 for 17 yards (46-J.Ciarlo; 81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on DEN-37-S.Fresch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:54 Penalty · DEN (1:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to SEA 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for -4 yards (46-A.Prentice). PENALTY on SEA-52-P.O'Connell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 34. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:50 Fourth down · SEA (7:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 32 for 7 yards (23-J.Barron). + Fourth down decision cost SEA 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam SEA
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team SEA
Home team DEN
Away total 21.5
Home total 19
Total line 40.5
Retractable 0
Spread line -2.5
Spread time -0.07718987017554124
Yardline 100 39
Elapsed share 0.8694444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 2.5
Original posteam SEA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q403:24 Penalty · SEA (3:24) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 33 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad; 23-J.Barron). PENALTY on SEA-76-G.Zabel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 26 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:07 Kick · SEA (:07) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. + Field goal points above expectation SEA -1.32 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q510:00 Penalty · SEA 3-W.Lutz kicks 57 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 8. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 12. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 23 for 11 yards (26-D.Key). PENALTY on SEA-48-T.Knight, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 23. + Observed ruling consequence SEA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q504:57 Kick · DEN (4:57) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on SEA-13-E.Jones, Leverage, declined. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN 0.85 points
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SHA-256 ebd3a0242ad8ec3d2706bc6c9df26c331e91de332e8b1d80c0e6326acdd1707f
nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 16, 2026, 4:35 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 6e9fdefa0b998ade913df494528fd576c3e03694a71dbb0ca3c2eca87530c9c9nflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 16, 2026, 4:40 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 1299b41dc9943e63cb87331f826297130577fcac5528451b01e4aa3f58765ce6Model versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: a20c75bb0f18abf9cd93bd6099e8b43077f17dd4c76e67b55bedd0e0b7f0c407
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Version 3 · Latest ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 16, 2026, 4:45 AM UTC Version 2 ↗ Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 16, 2026, 4:40 AM UTC Version 1 ↗ Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 16, 2026, 3:53 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
11
Game seconds remaining 1671
Half seconds remaining 1671
Quarter seconds remaining 771
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7775065791990216 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.73574/ NA/0.77751 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
11
Game seconds remaining 1375
Half seconds remaining 1375
Quarter seconds remaining 475
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.798824688118449 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77697/ NA/0.79882 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-11
Game seconds remaining 778
Half seconds remaining 778
Quarter seconds remaining 778
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1080311903612752 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.10138/0.09896/0.10803 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
11
Game seconds remaining 568
Half seconds remaining 568
Quarter seconds remaining 568
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8962540170149237 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.88190/ NA/0.89625 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
3
Game seconds remaining 211
Half seconds remaining 211
Quarter seconds remaining 211
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.6054096863259761 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.46149/ NA/0.60541 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Quarter seconds remaining 70
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7400693939512567 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.65897/ NA/0.74007 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 3095
Half seconds remaining 1295
Quarter seconds remaining 395
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.5738020031837998 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.57380/0.55501/0.53850 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation SEA -1.32 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-11
Game seconds remaining 1414
Half seconds remaining 1414
Quarter seconds remaining 514
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.2089426407290536 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.20894/0.20638/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation SEA -1.32 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-11
Game seconds remaining 470
Half seconds remaining 470
Quarter seconds remaining 470
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.08174182820013459 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08174/0.07865/0.05676 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled