Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: IND by 6.8; actual result: TEN by 6.
The 12.8-point difference was matched or exceeded in 102 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Opening the record…
Opening the record…
FINAL SCORE
GAME RATING
The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.
| Game statistic | TENWIN | INDLOSS |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 26 | 20 |
| Total offensive yards | 186 | 399 |
| Penalties | 8 | 5 |
| Penalty yards | 54 | 61 |
| Turnover margin | +2 | -2 |
| Non-offensive touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
Tennessee Titans covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
2,415 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (33.2%).
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗HOW THE GAME MOVED
How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Loading fan feedback…
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
(12:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 4.2 percentage points across this play.
(8:31) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 10-K.Allen (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-25-Jo.Williams, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 20 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 3.0 percentage points across this play.
(1:01) 20-T.Pollard left guard to IND 27 for 4 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 90-G.Stewart). Penalty on TEN, Illegal Shift, declined.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
GAME
8-R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to TEN 5. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 33 for 28 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.
(14:55) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 82-D.Bellinger.
(14:51) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard to TEN 15 for 5 yards (50-B.Boettcher; 0-C.Bynum).
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
-12.14 percentage points Supported
Updates automatically when source data changes.
The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Retrieved Oct 13, 2026, 4:02 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright
SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3bRetrieved Oct 18, 2026, 6:18 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0
SHA-256 c1e2440ed842ec7f1feadd9a5859b865708dfb27abb5a5d84bc8ec04ac2f9c61Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 d24654f97048be73eb1e31327cb13e37d0b840bdb8384304d30b86d32b61ad0aThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
102 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
| Comparison | TEN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Actual | 8 / 54 yd | 5 / 61 yd |
| Expected for this matchup | 5.9 / 49.2 yd | 5.6 / 44.4 yd |
| League average | 6 / 49.5 yd | 6 / 49.5 yd |
| Team’s usual penalties | 6.9 / 57.1 yd · 85 games | 5.4 / 43.8 yd · 85 games |
| Opponent usually draws | 5.8 / 50.9 yd · 85 games | 6.6 / 52.3 yd · 85 games |
The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 631 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
Assignment: Football Zebras
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 87.7 yards across both teams.
| Team history with this referee | TEN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Wins–losses–ties | 3–2–0 | 1–4–0 |
| Team penalties per game | 4 / 28.6 yd | 3.4 / 29.2 yd |
Home teams: 5.2 / 43.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 44.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Bill Vinovich; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7Allowed 6 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Opponent TEN was charged 8 penalties for 54 yards.
Opponent IND was charged 5 penalties for 61 yards.
Recorded 1 defensive or special-teams touchdowns.
58-yard punt return.
These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.
TEN won. Prior matching team-games: 105 wins, 691 losses, 0 ties among 796 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.
691 losses · 0 ties among the matches
14,512 team-games checked · 1999–2025 seasons
14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385143 model estimates across 169 recorded game entries.
26 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
| Period | Clock | Source play | IND win chance | Estimate source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 1 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 40 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 14:55 | Play 79 ↗ | 58.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:51 | Play 102 ↗ | 60.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:08 | Play 124 ↗ | 61.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:27 | Play 149 ↗ | 56.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:50 | Play 171 ↗ | 58.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:10 | Play 193 ↗ | 56.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:06 | Play 216 ↗ | 57.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:29 | Play 241 ↗ | 53.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:47 | Play 263 ↗ | 55.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:28 | Play 296 ↗ | 58.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:44 | Play 321 ↗ | 59.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:37 | Play 353 ↗ | 59.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:59 | Play 385 ↗ | 58.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:17 | Play 410 ↗ | 58.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:41 | Play 435 ↗ | 60.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:05 | Play 457 ↗ | 59.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:29 | Play 482 ↗ | 62.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:48 | Play 504 ↗ | 62.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:43 | Play 527 ↗ | 59.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:11 | Play 555 ↗ | 64.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:06 | Play 587 ↗ | 62.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:21 | Play 609 ↗ | 62.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:41 | Play 634 ↗ | 72.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:57 | Play 659 ↗ | 71.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:44 | Play 692 ↗ | 70.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:36 | Play 724 ↗ | 59.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:53 | Play 800 ↗ | 61.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:03 | Play 823 ↗ | 62.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:47 | Play 853 ↗ | 64.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:00 | Play 878 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 15:00 | Play 900 ↗ | 62.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:49 | Play 926 ↗ | 60.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:34 | Play 959 ↗ | 61.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:01 | Play 989 ↗ | 70.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:15 | Play 1012 ↗ | 67.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:32 | Play 1037 ↗ | 67.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:26 | Play 1071 ↗ | 69.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:59 | Play 1101 ↗ | 72.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:12 | Play 1123 ↗ | 73.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:07 | Play 1149 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 11:07 | Play 1164 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 11:02 | Play 1199 ↗ | 74.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:23 | Play 1221 ↗ | 75.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:41 | Play 1243 ↗ | 75.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:49 | Play 1265 ↗ | 78.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:42 | Play 1283 ↗ | 78.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:36 | Play 1313 ↗ | 77.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:31 | Play 1351 ↗ | 76.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:26 | Play 1388 ↗ | 79.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:51 | Play 1415 ↗ | 82.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:07 | Play 1437 ↗ | 81.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:27 | Play 1462 ↗ | 82.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:44 | Play 1492 ↗ | 83.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:07 | Play 1514 ↗ | 84.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:26 | Play 1536 ↗ | 84.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:44 | Play 1558 ↗ | 86.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:39 | Play 1581 ↗ | 86.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:52 | Play 1601 ↗ | 84.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:09 | Play 1628 ↗ | 86.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:06 | Play 1648 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 02:00 | Play 1678 ↗ | 82.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:50 | Play 1712 ↗ | 90.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:11 | Play 1734 ↗ | 89.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:34 | Play 1756 ↗ | 90.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:29 | Play 1779 ↗ | 90.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:24 | Play 1811 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:24 | Play 1799 ↗ | 88.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:15 | Play 1843 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:15 | Play 1831 ↗ | 87.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:11 | Play 1858 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:06 | Play 1889 ↗ | 90.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:00 | Play 1911 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 15:00 | Play 1931 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 14:56 | Play 1954 ↗ | 92.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:45 | Play 1997 ↗ | 86.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:42 | Play 2023 ↗ | 87.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:40 | Play 2046 ↗ | 88.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:19 | Play 2071 ↗ | 83.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:16 | Play 2094 ↗ | 85.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:37 | Play 2119 ↗ | 85.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:33 | Play 2142 ↗ | 87.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:30 | Play 2162 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 13:30 | Play 2198 ↗ | 88.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:24 | Play 2221 ↗ | 87.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:43 | Play 2243 ↗ | 87.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:37 | Play 2271 ↗ | 84.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:31 | Play 2301 ↗ | 89.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:43 | Play 2330 ↗ | 88.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:57 | Play 2352 ↗ | 89.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:18 | Play 2374 ↗ | 86.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:38 | Play 2399 ↗ | 89.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:00 | Play 2421 ↗ | 90.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:43 | Play 2454 ↗ | 89.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:02 | Play 2479 ↗ | 90.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:45 | Play 2512 ↗ | 88.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:07 | Play 2537 ↗ | 91.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:01 | Play 2564 ↗ | 85.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:26 | Play 2593 ↗ | 84.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:54 | Play 2615 ↗ | 84.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:30 | Play 2645 ↗ | 82.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:46 | Play 2675 ↗ | 83.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:10 | Play 2697 ↗ | 81.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:04 | Play 2720 ↗ | 83.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:29 | Play 2754 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 03:29 | Play 2732 ↗ | 83.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:26 | Play 2777 ↗ | 87.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:21 | Play 2797 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 03:16 | Play 2827 ↗ | 79.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:35 | Play 2849 ↗ | 82.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:55 | Play 2871 ↗ | 84.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:21 | Play 2893 ↗ | 79.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:40 | Play 2918 ↗ | 80.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:00 | Play 2938 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 15:00 | Play 2958 ↗ | 72.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:44 | Play 2984 ↗ | 70.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:18 | Play 3012 ↗ | 66.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:41 | Play 3041 ↗ | 68.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:04 | Play 3063 ↗ | 69.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:00 | Play 3089 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 13:00 | Play 3104 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 12:54 | Play 3134 ↗ | 56.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:15 | Play 3156 ↗ | 56.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:35 | Play 3178 ↗ | 58.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:16 | Play 3211 ↗ | 55.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:11 | Play 3234 ↗ | 52.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:30 | Play 3261 ↗ | 50.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:25 | Play 3284 ↗ | 47.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:17 | Play 3330 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 10:17 | Play 3345 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 10:11 | Play 3375 ↗ | 20.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:24 | Play 3400 ↗ | 23.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:44 | Play 3420 ↗ | 19.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:10 | Play 3450 ↗ | 25.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:33 | Play 3485 ↗ | 33.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:54 | Play 3507 ↗ | 40.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:17 | Play 3529 ↗ | 40.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:36 | Play 3551 ↗ | 39.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:32 | Play 3574 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 05:32 | Play 3589 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 05:26 | Play 3638 ↗ | 53.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:19 | Play 3672 ↗ | 43.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:33 | Play 3697 ↗ | 45.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:30 | Play 3720 ↗ | 50.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:44 | Play 3745 ↗ | 37.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:58 | Play 3767 ↗ | 40.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:12 | Play 3789 ↗ | 38.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:07 | Play 3812 ↗ | 47.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:03 | Play 3832 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:57 | Play 3860 ↗ | 34.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:52 | Play 3897 ↗ | 35.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:49 | Play 3920 ↗ | 32.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:45 | Play 3943 ↗ | 28.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:07 | Play 3963 ↗ | 16.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:01 | Play 3986 ↗ | 4.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:56 | Play 4019 ↗ | 4.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:51 | Play 4053 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:51 | Play 4041 ↗ | 3.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:47 | Play 4082 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:47 | Play 4070 ↗ | 5.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:43 | Play 4097 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 00:43 | Play 4114 ↗ | 13.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:38 | Play 4137 ↗ | 10.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:19 | Play 4162 ↗ | 13.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:18 | Play 4185 ↗ | 12.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:13 | Play 4208 ↗ | 10.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:04 | Play 4231 ↗ | 7.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:00 | Play 4254 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Missing environment
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Baseline leakage or domain guard
0 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Baseline leakage or domain guard
0 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Baseline leakage or domain guard
0 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Baseline leakage or domain guard
0 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 169 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 169 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
49 of 49 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
84 of 84 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
84 of 84 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
23 of 23 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
23 of 23 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Estimated chance to win moved 0.3 percentage points across this play.
(14:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears to TEN 22 for 7 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 1-A.Gardner).
(13:27) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 27 for 5 yards (50-B.Boettcher).
(12:50) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to TEN 32 for 5 yards (90-G.Stewart; 51-A.Davis-Gaither).
(12:10) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 20-T.Pollard (91-J.Tuimoloau).
(12:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 14-C.Tate to TEN 46 for 14 yards (25-A.Haulcy; 50-B.Boettcher).
(11:29) 2-T.Spears left tackle to TEN 47 for 1 yard (97-L.Latu).
(10:47) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 47 for no gain (91-J.Tuimoloau). Penalty on TEN, Illegal Formation, declined.
(10:28) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to IND 47 for 6 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
(9:44) 3-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to IND 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
(9:37) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 10-K.Allen to IND 11 for 2 yards (29-T.Adams).
(8:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 86-W.Mallory to IND 16 for 5 yards (29-T.Adams) [57-J.Martin].
(8:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 80-D.Burks to IND 21 for 5 yards (25-Jo.Williams) [91-J.Franklin-Myers].
(7:41) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 21 for no gain (93-N.Stackhouse; 29-T.Adams).
(7:05) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to IND 32 for 11 yards (29-T.Adams; 25-Jo.Williams).
(6:29) 28-J.Taylor right end to IND 34 for 2 yards (37-A.Hooker; 33-C.Gray).
(5:48) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen (29-T.Adams).
(5:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 2-J.Downs to IND 42 for 8 yards (37-A.Hooker; 29-T.Adams). TEN-26-M.Harris was injured during the play. The first down was assisted by replay.
(5:11) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 28-J.Taylor.
(5:06) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 48 for 6 yards (50-C.Barton; 37-A.Hooker).
(4:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 80-D.Burks pushed ob at TEN 16 for 36 yards (38-T.Burgess). ** Injury Update: TEN-26-M.Harris has returned to the game.
(3:41) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to TEN 14 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons; 94-T.Horne).
(2:57) 80-D.Burks right end to TEN 13 for 1 yard (18-C.Flott; 11-J.Johnson). PENALTY on IND, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 14 - No Play.
(2:44) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 6 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
(2:36) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 8 for 2 yards (95-A.Adebawore; 51-A.Davis-Gaither).
(1:53) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 9 for 1 yard (95-A.Adebawore).
(1:03) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN, Delay of Game, 4 yards, enforced at TEN 9 - No Play.
(:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to TEN 15 for 10 yards (25-A.Haulcy). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
END QUARTER 1
(15:00) 3-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 30 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 56-T.Jones).
(14:49) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 34 for 4 yards (57-J.Martin; 93-N.Stackhouse).
(14:34) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 28-J.Taylor pushed ob at TEN 28 for 38 yards (37-A.Hooker). TEN-29-T.Adams was injured during the play.
(14:01) 17-D.Jones sacked at TEN 33 for -5 yards (98-J.Simmons).
(13:15) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell to TEN 26 for 7 yards (37-A.Hooker).
(12:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell (18-C.Flott). PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play.
(12:26) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 10-K.Allen pushed ob at TEN 8 for 13 yards (28-I.Oliver).
(11:59) 2-J.Downs left end to TEN 1 for 7 yards (37-A.Hooker; 38-T.Burgess).
(11:12) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
8-R.Sanchez kicks 59 yards from IND 35 to TEN 6. 17-C.Dike to TEN 34 for 28 yards (34-K.Gushiken).
(11:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles left end to TEN 39 for 5 yards (53-C.Allen).
(10:23) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 40 for 1 yard (27-J.Walley; 90-G.Stewart).
(9:41) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 43 for 3 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 95-A.Adebawore).
(8:49) 3-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
(8:42) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Allen. ** Injury Update: TEN-29-T.Adams has returned to the game.
(8:36) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 2-J.Downs (28-I.Oliver).
(8:31) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 10-K.Allen (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-25-Jo.Williams, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 20 - No Play.
(8:26) 20-S.McGowan right end pushed ob at IND 43 for 18 yards (29-T.Adams).
(7:51) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan right guard to IND 43 for no gain (94-T.Horne).
(7:07) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 10-K.Allen to TEN 48 for 9 yards (37-A.Hooker).
(6:27) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 49-P.Brown pushed ob at TEN 41 for 7 yards (33-C.Gray).
(5:44) (Shotgun) 20-S.McGowan up the middle to TEN 37 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker).
(5:07) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to TEN 33 for 4 yards (7-O.Oladejo).
(4:26) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to TEN 13 for 20 yards (33-C.Gray).
(3:44) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 86-W.Mallory (25-Jo.Williams).
(3:39) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at TEN 22 for -9 yards (11-J.Johnson).
(2:52) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones scrambles up the middle pushed ob at TEN 5 for 17 yards (53-A.Hill; 28-I.Oliver).
(2:09) 3-S.Shrader 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
8-R.Sanchez kicks 56 yards from IND 35 to TEN 9. 17-C.Dike to TEN 34 for 25 yards (95-A.Adebawore; 55-C.Curry).
(2:00) 1-C.Ward pass deep right intended for 4-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Bynum [95-A.Adebawore] at IND 39. 0-C.Bynum to TEN 49 for 12 yards (20-T.Pollard).
(1:50) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to TEN 45 for 4 yards (33-C.Gray; 98-J.Simmons).
(1:11) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 34 for 11 yards (18-C.Flott).
(:34) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 2-J.Downs (57-J.Martin) [15-K.Faulk].
(:29) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at TEN 40 for -6 yards (57-J.Martin).
Timeout #1 by IND at 00:24.
(:24) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to TEN 29 for 11 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Timeout #1 by TEN at 00:15.
(:15) 3-S.Shrader 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to TEN 3. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 31 for 28 yards (38-J.Owens). IND-85-A.Ogletree was injured during the play.
(:06) 1-C.Ward kneels to TEN 30 for -1 yards.
END QUARTER 2
6-J.Slye kicks 55 yards from TEN 35 to IND 10. 20-S.McGowan to IND 28 for 18 yards (56-T.Jones; 36-J.Chestnut). ** Injury Update: IND-85-A.Ogletree has returned to the game.
(14:56) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 32 for 4 yards (98-J.Simmons; 53-A.Hill). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at IND 33.
(14:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 0-C.Ridley (91-J.Tuimoloau).
(14:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 4-W.Robinson (99-D.Buckner).
(14:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 14-C.Tate to IND 14 for 19 yards (27-J.Walley).
(14:19) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 4-W.Robinson.
(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor to IND 11 for 3 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
(13:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 0-C.Ridley.
(13:33) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
6-J.Slye kicks 43 yards from TEN 35 to IND 22, short of landing zone. PENALTY on TEN-6-J.Slye, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at IND 40.
(13:30) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 13-L.Treadwell.
(13:24) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones scrambles up the middle to IND 45 for 5 yards (50-C.Barton; 53-A.Hill).
(12:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right [11-J.Johnson].
(12:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-T.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.
(12:31) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end to TEN 47 for 3 yards (53-A.Hill; 26-M.Harris).
(11:43) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end to TEN 42 for 5 yards (37-A.Hooker).
(10:57) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 42 for no gain (37-A.Hooker; 53-A.Hill).
(10:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to TEN 38 for 4 yards (26-M.Harris).
(9:38) (Shotgun) 80-D.Burks left end to TEN 31 for 7 yards (98-J.Simmons).
(9:00) 20-S.McGowan right tackle to TEN 30 for 1 yard (90-S.Thomas). PENALTY on IND, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 31 - No Play.
(8:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to TEN 30 for 6 yards (50-C.Barton).
(8:02) PENALTY on IND-56-Q.Nelson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 30 - No Play.
(7:45) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to TEN 24 for 11 yards (25-Jo.Williams).
(7:07) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-W.Mallory INTERCEPTED by 18-C.Flott at TEN 11. 18-C.Flott to TEN 11 for no gain (86-W.Mallory).
(7:01) 20-T.Pollard left guard to TEN 19 for 8 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
(6:26) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard to TEN 23 for 4 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 25-A.Haulcy).
(5:54) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate ran ob at TEN 41 for 18 yards.
(5:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 14-C.Tate to TEN 43 for 2 yards (27-J.Walley).
(4:46) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right guard to IND 41 for 16 yards (25-A.Haulcy; 0-C.Bynum).
(4:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Bellinger (91-J.Tuimoloau).
(4:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward up the middle to IND 38 for 3 yards (99-D.Buckner).
Timeout #1 by IND at 03:29.
(3:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 5-E.Ayomanor.
(3:26) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
6-J.Slye kicks 66 yards from TEN 35 to IND -1. 80-D.Burks to IND 24 for 25 yards (36-J.Chestnut; 52-Ja.Williams).
(3:16) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 33 for 9 yards (29-T.Adams).
(2:35) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 36 for 3 yards (90-S.Thomas).
(1:55) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 31 for -5 yards (53-A.Hill).
(1:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 2-J.Downs to IND 36 for 5 yards (29-T.Adams).
(:40) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 29 for -7 yards (98-J.Simmons).
END QUARTER 3
(15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-C.Dike to IND 28 for 58 yards (34-K.Gushiken).
(14:44) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 14-C.Tate to IND 19 for 9 yards (25-A.Haulcy). IND-25-A.Haulcy was injured during the play.
(14:18) 20-T.Pollard right guard to IND 13 for 6 yards (30-H.Wohler).
(13:41) 20-T.Pollard right guard to IND 8 for 5 yards (27-J.Walley; 50-B.Boettcher).
(13:04) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
6-J.Slye kicks 62 yards from TEN 35 to IND 3. 80-D.Burks to IND 29 for 26 yards (33-C.Gray).
(12:54) 20-S.McGowan right guard to IND 34 for 5 yards (53-A.Hill; 26-M.Harris).
(12:15) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 39 for 5 yards (33-C.Gray; 93-N.Stackhouse).
(11:35) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 43 for 4 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers). PENALTY on IND-60-T.Bortolini, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play.
(11:16) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 2-J.Downs.
(11:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones scrambles left end pushed ob at IND 37 for 8 yards (29-T.Adams).
(10:30) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell.
(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
6-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
6-J.Slye kicks 58 yards from TEN 35 to IND 7. 80-D.Burks to IND 28 for 21 yards (33-C.Gray).
(10:11) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 2-J.Downs to TEN 49 for 23 yards (53-A.Hill).
(9:24) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at 50 for -1 yards (29-T.Adams).
(8:44) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 13-L.Treadwell pushed ob at TEN 36 for 14 yards (18-C.Flott).
(8:10) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor pushed ob at TEN 17 for 19 yards (29-T.Adams).
(7:33) 28-J.Taylor left guard to TEN 8 for 9 yards (37-A.Hooker; 29-T.Adams).
(6:54) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to TEN 5 for 3 yards (37-A.Hooker).
(6:17) 28-J.Taylor left guard to TEN 4 for 1 yard (53-A.Hill).
(5:36) 28-J.Taylor left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ** Injury Update: IND-8-R.Sanchez has returned to the game.
3-S.Shrader kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to TEN 5. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at IND 47 for 48 yards (3-S.Shrader). PENALTY on TEN-28-I.Oliver, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.
(5:26) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game. PENALTY on IND-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at TEN 17 - No Play.
(5:19) 20-T.Pollard right end to IND 42 for 5 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
(4:33) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 4-W.Robinson.
(4:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 4-W.Robinson to IND 36 for 6 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
(3:44) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to IND 35 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner; 58-A.Ajiake).
(2:58) 20-T.Pollard right guard to IND 31 for 4 yards (25-A.Haulcy; 7-C.Ward).
(2:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Tate.
(2:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
6-J.Slye kicks 51 yards from TEN 35 to IND 14. 80-D.Burks pushed ob at IND 23 for 9 yards (28-I.Oliver; 21-M.Robinson).
(1:57) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 86-W.Mallory ran ob at IND 38 for 15 yards.
(1:52) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 28-J.Taylor.
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen.
(1:45) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 31 for -7 yards (11-J.Johnson).
(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).
(1:01) 20-T.Pollard left guard to IND 27 for 4 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 90-G.Stewart). Penalty on TEN, Illegal Shift, declined.
(:56) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to IND 26 for 1 yard (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
Timeout #2 by IND at 00:51.
(:51) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to IND 26 for no gain (91-J.Tuimoloau).
Timeout #3 by IND at 00:47.
(:47) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
6-J.Slye kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 35.
(:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 86-W.Mallory [91-J.Franklin-Myers].
(:38) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 10-K.Allen to TEN 46 for 19 yards (26-M.Harris; 18-C.Flott).
(:19) (No Huddle) 17-D.Jones spiked the ball to stop the clock.
(:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 86-W.Mallory (25-Jo.Williams).
(:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right.
(:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right (26-M.Harris).
END GAME
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
6.04 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
2.08 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
-1.76 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
-0.35 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.35 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 8:17 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 abaab0949fafbce8fde0d74f37605169f746dbf9540641a8fca04645b8e63cecRetrieved Oct 18, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 f8f9feebec30adf67dd9a2d7bc88d102889e32fad0254a3caa3d845c8cbdae1eTraining window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 5239fb91b6ddbf40362c645ec34e271c602a22a5ffcf49eaeaa3a2f9788be95c
Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled