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FINAL SCORE

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

WAS 17—SF 23

✓ Analysis completeUpdated Oct 20, 2026, 4:40 AM UTC

GAME RATING

Fair

1 / 5

Fair
Debatable
Hmm
Sus
RIGGED?

The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

How this rating was calculated

Fair (1/5): The result and penalty pattern fit the usual historical range.

Result versus box score

Fair · 1/5

Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: SF by 0.8; actual result: SF by 6.

The 5.2-point difference was matched or exceeded in 441 of 816 earlier comparison games.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalty pattern

Fair · 1/5

Combined penalty count: 18 versus 12.0 expected.

The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 274 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Result versus spread

Fair · 1/5

Recorded spread: SF by 7.5; actual result: SF by 6. The difference was 1.5 points.

6,552 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.

Adjusted rarity: 100%

Penalties extending one drive

Fair · 1/5

No qualifying two-penalty sequence on one drive appears in the saved play evidence.

The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.

The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.

Rating thresholds

Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.

Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.

Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.

Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.

RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.

Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.

These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.

Full methodology ↗

Do you agree with this rating?

See Public Feedback

Why this result stands out—or doesn’t

How the teams performed

Actual team statistics for WAS at SF
Game statistic	WASLOSS	SFWIN
Points scored	17	23
Total offensive yards	314	375
Penalties	7	11
Penalty yards	66	88
Turnover margin	+1	-1
Non-offensive touchdowns	0	0

Spread vs. result

Within the usual range

Expected marginSan Francisco 49ers by 7.5

Final marginSan Francisco 49ers by 6

Difference1.5 points

Washington Commanders covered the spread.

6,552 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (90%).

Where this comparison comes from

The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.

The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.

View the source data ↗

Did the score fit the performance?

Yardage + turnovers

Expected from the box scoreSF by 0.8

Actual final marginSF by 6

Difference5.2 points

This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.

441 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.

Were the penalties unusual?

Accepted penalties / yards

Actual penalties compared with league, team, opponent and referee expectations
Comparison	WAS	SF
Actual	7 / 66 yd	11 / 88 yd
Expected for this matchup	5.9 / 49.1 yd	6.1 / 51.8 yd
League average	6 / 49.5 yd	6 / 49.5 yd
Team’s usual penalties	5.8 / 48.5 yd · 85 games	5.8 / 49.7 yd · 85 games
Opponent usually draws	5.5 / 44.1 yd · 85 games	5.9 / 49.6 yd · 85 games

The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 274 of 779 comparison games.

Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.

The referee: Adrian Hill

Head official

Assignment: Football Zebras

In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.8 yards across both teams.

Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee	WAS	SF
Games	6	1
Wins–losses–ties	4–2–0	1–0–0
Team penalties per game	5 / 35.2 yd	2 / 10 yd

Referee comparison details

Home teams: 6 / 50.8 yd per game. Away teams: 6.7 / 54.9 yd per game.

These are crew totals in games led by Adrian Hill; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.

Comparison coverage & method

Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.

Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.

Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline.
The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away.
Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome.
Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting.
Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled.

Model: under-review-expectations-v1

Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7

THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE

How the result took shape

San Francisco 49ers · Sacks allowed

Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.

See play 2872 ↗See play 3431 ↗

San Francisco 49ers · Opponent penalties

Opponent WAS was charged 7 penalties for 66 yards.

See play 756 ↗See play 1369 ↗See play 2094 ↗See play 2128 ↗See play 2207 ↗See play 3634 ↗See play 4158 ↗

Washington Commanders · Sacks allowed

Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.

See play 819 ↗See play 1409 ↗See play 2187 ↗See play 4181 ↗

Washington Commanders · Opponent penalties

Opponent SF was charged 11 penalties for 88 yards.

See play 537 ↗See play 693 ↗See play 1645 ↗See play 1731 ↗See play 2691 ↗See play 2754 ↗See play 3102 ↗See play 3291 ↗See play 3739 ↗See play 3994 ↗See play 4022 ↗

Explore the historical comparisons (1)

These patterns overlap. They are separate comparisons, not independent evidence of multiple problems.

San Francisco 49ersHistorical context

Winning-profile context

SF won. Prior matching team-games: 1226 wins, 4513 losses, 13 ties among 5752 matches from 14512 complete prior team-games. This frequency describes the comparison group, not the probability that this result was improper.

Negative turnover margin

1,226 / 5,752prior matching team-games were wins

4,513 losses · 13 ties among the matches
14,512 team-games checked · 1999–2025 seasons

Historical coverage & audit method

14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons

Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1

Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385

Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.

HOW THE GAME MOVED

Game momentum

San Francisco 49ers chance to win · vs. Washington CommandersBefore-play estimates

About this chart

141 model estimates across 168 recorded game entries.

27 entries have no estimate.

Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.

The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.

View all chart data (168 entries)

San Francisco 49ers chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Period	Clock	Source play	SF win chance	Estimate source
Q1	15:00	Play 1 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	15:00	Play 41 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	14:55	Play 64 ↗	57.3%	Regulation model
Q1	14:33	Play 89 ↗	56.8%	Regulation model
Q1	14:29	Play 112 ↗	54.1%	Regulation model
Q1	13:58	Play 137 ↗	63.2%	Regulation model
Q1	13:22	Play 162 ↗	62.2%	Regulation model
Q1	12:57	Play 184 ↗	66.0%	Regulation model
Q1	12:19	Play 206 ↗	64.8%	Regulation model
Q1	11:40	Play 231 ↗	66.3%	Regulation model
Q1	10:58	Play 253 ↗	67.4%	Regulation model
Q1	10:53	Play 274 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	10:53	Play 289 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	10:53	Play 313 ↗	68.0%	Regulation model
Q1	10:19	Play 343 ↗	64.4%	Regulation model
Q1	09:40	Play 365 ↗	65.6%	Regulation model
Q1	08:57	Play 387 ↗	67.0%	Regulation model
Q1	08:53	Play 410 ↗	71.4%	Regulation model
Q1	08:48	Play 430 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	08:43	Play 460 ↗	65.8%	Regulation model
Q1	08:06	Play 490 ↗	74.2%	Regulation model
Q1	07:29	Play 512 ↗	73.2%	Regulation model
Q1	06:46	Play 537 ↗	71.0%	Regulation model
Q1	06:30	Play 561 ↗	69.3%	Regulation model
Q1	05:42	Play 598 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	05:42	Play 586 ↗	69.7%	Regulation model
Q1	04:55	Play 615 ↗	76.3%	Regulation model
Q1	04:50	Play 638 ↗	75.4%	Regulation model
Q1	04:11	Play 660 ↗	75.6%	Regulation model
Q1	04:09	Play 678 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	04:09	Play 693 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q1	04:03	Play 734 ↗	74.7%	Regulation model
Q1	03:27	Play 756 ↗	75.6%	Regulation model
Q1	02:59	Play 794 ↗	77.7%	Regulation model
Q1	02:16	Play 819 ↗	78.7%	Regulation model
Q1	01:39	Play 842 ↗	81.4%	Regulation model
Q1	01:29	Play 879 ↗	75.1%	Regulation model
Q1	01:24	Play 902 ↗	73.6%	Regulation model
Q1	00:51	Play 941 ↗	74.7%	Regulation model
Q1	00:45	Play 971 ↗	71.4%	Regulation model
Q1	00:37	Play 991 ↗	75.4%	Regulation model
Q1	00:00	Play 1016 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	15:00	Play 1041 ↗	74.5%	Regulation model
Q2	14:25	Play 1066 ↗	70.2%	Regulation model
Q2	14:22	Play 1096 ↗	71.4%	Regulation model
Q2	13:43	Play 1121 ↗	72.5%	Regulation model
Q2	13:08	Play 1143 ↗	75.2%	Regulation model
Q2	13:02	Play 1184 ↗	76.9%	Regulation model
Q2	12:29	Play 1213 ↗	79.4%	Regulation model
Q2	11:49	Play 1238 ↗	79.9%	Regulation model
Q2	11:04	Play 1263 ↗	83.7%	Regulation model
Q2	10:28	Play 1288 ↗	85.6%	Regulation model
Q2	09:50	Play 1310 ↗	85.2%	Regulation model
Q2	09:11	Play 1332 ↗	86.2%	Regulation model
Q2	09:01	Play 1369 ↗	79.2%	Regulation model
Q2	08:42	Play 1409 ↗	81.3%	Regulation model
Q2	07:57	Play 1429 ↗	82.7%	Regulation model
Q2	07:21	Play 1454 ↗	82.9%	Regulation model
Q2	06:34	Play 1479 ↗	83.4%	Regulation model
Q2	06:26	Play 1499 ↗	82.9%	Regulation model
Q2	05:42	Play 1531 ↗	85.1%	Regulation model
Q2	05:02	Play 1554 ↗	85.9%	Regulation model
Q2	04:28	Play 1576 ↗	85.9%	Regulation model
Q2	03:59	Play 1601 ↗	86.9%	Regulation model
Q2	03:21	Play 1623 ↗	86.7%	Regulation model
Q2	02:35	Play 1645 ↗	87.9%	Regulation model
Q2	02:12	Play 1678 ↗	83.8%	Regulation model
Q2	02:00	Play 1700 ↗	88.4%	Regulation model
Q2	01:18	Play 1731 ↗	88.4%	Regulation model
Q2	01:10	Play 1767 ↗	85.8%	Regulation model
Q2	01:03	Play 1807 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	01:03	Play 1795 ↗	89.2%	Regulation model
Q2	00:58	Play 1836 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:58	Play 1824 ↗	89.2%	Regulation model
Q2	00:54	Play 1854 ↗	88.9%	Regulation model
Q2	00:49	Play 1891 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:49	Play 1879 ↗	89.3%	Regulation model
Q2	00:18	Play 1908 ↗	91.8%	Regulation model
Q2	00:13	Play 1929 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:13	Play 1944 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q2	00:06	Play 1967 ↗	92.8%	Regulation model
Q2	00:00	Play 1989 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	15:00	Play 2009 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	14:54	Play 2042 ↗	92.1%	Regulation model
Q3	14:21	Play 2072 ↗	90.9%	Regulation model
Q3	13:41	Play 2094 ↗	91.0%	Regulation model
Q3	13:35	Play 2128 ↗	91.9%	Regulation model
Q3	13:35	Play 2157 ↗	92.5%	Regulation model
Q3	12:55	Play 2187 ↗	92.4%	Regulation model
Q3	12:09	Play 2207 ↗	94.3%	Regulation model
Q3	12:01	Play 2227 ↗	94.6%	Regulation model
Q3	11:26	Play 2268 ↗	94.6%	Regulation model
Q3	10:47	Play 2295 ↗	94.4%	Regulation model
Q3	10:03	Play 2317 ↗	94.9%	Regulation model
Q3	09:19	Play 2342 ↗	96.3%	Regulation model
Q3	08:42	Play 2364 ↗	96.8%	Regulation model
Q3	08:01	Play 2386 ↗	96.8%	Regulation model
Q3	07:26	Play 2408 ↗	96.8%	Regulation model
Q3	06:47	Play 2433 ↗	97.0%	Regulation model
Q3	06:04	Play 2455 ↗	97.5%	Regulation model
Q3	06:01	Play 2478 ↗	96.3%	Regulation model
Q3	05:56	Play 2498 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	05:56	Play 2522 ↗	96.1%	Regulation model
Q3	05:19	Play 2544 ↗	96.3%	Regulation model
Q3	04:45	Play 2566 ↗	97.2%	Regulation model
Q3	04:10	Play 2591 ↗	96.7%	Regulation model
Q3	03:35	Play 2613 ↗	97.1%	Regulation model
Q3	02:54	Play 2638 ↗	97.3%	Regulation model
Q3	02:50	Play 2661 ↗	97.7%	Regulation model
Q3	02:16	Play 2691 ↗	96.6%	Regulation model
Q3	02:01	Play 2724 ↗	97.0%	Regulation model
Q3	01:29	Play 2754 ↗	97.1%	Regulation model
Q3	00:59	Play 2790 ↗	96.8%	Regulation model
Q3	00:18	Play 2812 ↗	96.5%	Regulation model
Q3	00:15	Play 2833 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	00:15	Play 2848 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q3	00:14	Play 2872 ↗	95.7%	Regulation model
Q3	00:00	Play 2892 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	15:00	Play 2912 ↗	94.9%	Regulation model
Q4	14:20	Play 2937 ↗	94.4%	Regulation model
Q4	14:14	Play 2960 ↗	93.8%	Regulation model
Q4	14:05	Play 2990 ↗	94.2%	Regulation model
Q4	13:39	Play 3074 ↗	94.8%	Regulation model
Q4	13:00	Play 3102 ↗	94.8%	Regulation model
Q4	12:55	Play 3136 ↗	93.3%	Regulation model
Q4	12:28	Play 3161 ↗	93.8%	Regulation model
Q4	11:46	Play 3191 ↗	93.9%	Regulation model
Q4	11:15	Play 3218 ↗	94.6%	Regulation model
Q4	10:39	Play 3243 ↗	93.5%	Regulation model
Q4	10:34	Play 3266 ↗	94.4%	Regulation model
Q4	09:53	Play 3291 ↗	95.4%	Regulation model
Q4	09:26	Play 3327 ↗	91.0%	Regulation model
Q4	09:22	Play 3359 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	09:22	Play 3374 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	09:14	Play 3409 ↗	84.6%	Regulation model
Q4	08:36	Play 3431 ↗	87.9%	Regulation model
Q4	07:56	Play 3451 ↗	82.8%	Regulation model
Q4	07:53	Play 3474 ↗	78.9%	Regulation model
Q4	07:46	Play 3498 ↗	80.8%	Regulation model
Q4	07:08	Play 3527 ↗	82.1%	Regulation model
Q4	06:25	Play 3557 ↗	82.9%	Regulation model
Q4	05:44	Play 3582 ↗	79.3%	Regulation model
Q4	05:03	Play 3609 ↗	81.1%	Regulation model
Q4	04:19	Play 3634 ↗	72.2%	Regulation model
Q4	04:11	Play 3669 ↗	77.1%	Regulation model
Q4	03:43	Play 3691 ↗	78.0%	Regulation model
Q4	03:06	Play 3716 ↗	78.2%	Regulation model
Q4	03:01	Play 3751 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	03:01	Play 3739 ↗	83.9%	Regulation model
Q4	02:56	Play 3777 ↗	65.1%	Regulation model
Q4	02:26	Play 3802 ↗	64.8%	Regulation model
Q4	02:19	Play 3832 ↗	67.0%	Regulation model
Q4	02:00	Play 3854 ↗	74.7%	Regulation model
Q4	01:54	Play 3891 ↗	96.9%	Regulation model
Q4	01:50	Play 3932 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	01:50	Play 3920 ↗	96.6%	Regulation model
Q4	01:46	Play 3977 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	01:46	Play 3965 ↗	96.9%	Regulation model
Q4	01:00	Play 3994 ↗	96.9%	Regulation model
Q4	01:00	Play 4022 ↗	96.5%	Regulation model
Q4	00:52	Play 4062 ↗	84.5%	Regulation model
Q4	00:38	Play 4087 ↗	76.8%	Regulation model
Q4	00:37	Play 4110 ↗	79.8%	Regulation model
Q4	00:22	Play 4135 ↗	77.9%	Regulation model
Q4	00:21	Play 4158 ↗	82.3%	Regulation model
Q4	00:06	Play 4207 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage
Q4	00:06	Play 4181 ↗	89.4%	Regulation model
Q4	00:00	Play 4222 ↗	No estimate	State outside model coverage

DIG INTO THE NUMBERSDetailed analysis by categoryOfficiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution.

Impact of officiating decisions

How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.

SFObserved ruling consequence-1.69 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:537

SFRuling expected points consequence-0.6 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:537

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Unsupported state

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:693

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:756

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Penalty declined

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1143

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1369

SFObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1645

SFObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Clock or period ambiguity

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1731

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2094

SFObserved ruling consequence0.58 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2128

SFRuling expected points consequence0.4 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2128

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Intervening state change

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2207

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2691

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2754

SFObserved ruling consequence-2.82 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3102

SFRuling expected points consequence-2.62 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3102

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3291

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3634

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Alternative requires review

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3739

SFObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Clock or period ambiguity

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3994

SFObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Clock or period ambiguity

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:4022

WASObserved ruling consequenceUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Unsupported state

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:4158

Coaching decisions

Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.

WASFourth down decision cost0.19 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17345/0.17157/0.14236
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:410

SFFourth down decision cost0 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82854/0.82105/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:586

WASFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08826/ NA/0.10055
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:842

SFFourth down decision cost0.52 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.87095/ NA/0.86576
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:971

WASFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14747/0.12986/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1143

WASFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07639/ NA/0.08083
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1479

SFFourth down decision cost0.05 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94392/0.94439/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1879

WASFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2207

SFFourth down decision cost0.03 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98433/0.98402/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2478

WASFourth down decision cost0 percentage points · experimental

Experimental

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Kickoff assumption sensitive

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00972/0.00967/0.00588
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2661

SFFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96017/ NA/0.96543
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2960

SFFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82414/ NA/0.84618
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3474

WASFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3739

WASFourth down decision cost0 percentage points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Close call

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17473/0.09041/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3854

SFFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3994

SFFourth down decision costUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Chosen action ambiguous

0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:4022

Fumble recoveries

Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.

SFFumble recoveries above expectation-0.36 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON26th percentile

This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.

Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1332

WASFumble recoveries above expectation0.36 recoveries

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON26th percentile

Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1332

Kicking

Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.

SFField goal points above expectation0.12 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2478

WASField goal points above expectation0.73 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient reference games

Reference: 2024–2025 · 57 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:410

SFExtra point points above expectation-0.88 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISON91st percentile

Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:274 Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:678 Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:1929

WASExtra point points above expectation0.08 points

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Insufficient tail support

Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09

Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:2833 Event 2026_06_WAS_SF:3359

Player execution

Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.

SFExecution chartingUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Ftn charting unavailable

0 of 168 eligible opportunities modeled.

Model: FTN-charting

WASExecution chartingUnavailable

Unavailable

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Incomplete or no opportunities

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

Ftn charting unavailable

0 of 168 eligible opportunities modeled.

Model: FTN-charting

Penalty patterns

Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.

SFPresnap called penalties above expectation0.79 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 2 across 64 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

SFOffensive holding called penalties above expectation0.88 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

64 of 64 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 2 across 64 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

SFDefensive holding called penalties above expectation1.5 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

44 of 44 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 2 across 44 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

SFPass interference called penalties above expectation-0.54 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

44 of 44 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 44 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

WASPresnap called penalties above expectation-0.3 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 1 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

WASOffensive holding called penalties above expectation1.88 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

65 of 65 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 3 across 65 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

WASDefensive holding called penalties above expectation-0.38 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

WASPass interference called penalties above expectation-0.4 calls

Supported

HISTORICAL COMPARISONHistorical percentile unavailable

Comparable reference unavailable

No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.

Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1

A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.

32 of 32 eligible opportunities modeled.

Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness.
Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away.
Observed 0 across 32 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0.

Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Fan feedback

Loading fan feedback…

Notable plays 8

These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.

Q4 · 02:00Recorded game event

Washington Commanders · Play 3854

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).

Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game.

Estimated chance to win moved 22.1 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 04:19Recorded game event

Washington Commanders · Play 3634

(4:19) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 25.

A touchdown or two point play was explicitly nullified.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.

Estimated chance to win moved 4.8 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 14:14Recorded game event

San Francisco 49ers · Play 2960

(14:14) 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-L.McCaffrey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-41-J.Graham at WAS 20. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.

Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately.

Estimated chance to win moved 0.4 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 03:01Recorded game event

Washington Commanders · Play 3739

(3:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 29 - No Play.

Defensive penalty on SF awarded WAS a first down on fourth down; call correctness requires review.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.

Estimated chance to win moved 18.8 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Show 4 more plays

Q4 · 01:00Recorded game event

San Francisco 49ers · Play 4022

(1:00) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.

Estimated chance to win moved 12.0 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 00:21Recorded game event

Washington Commanders · Play 4158

(:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [94-R.Height]. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at SF 28. 10-second runoff.

Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.

Estimated chance to win moved 7.1 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 13:00Recorded game event

Washington Commanders · Play 3102

(13:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (98-M.Williams). PENALTY on SF-0-R.Green, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 26 - No Play.

Defensive penalty on SF awarded WAS a first down on third down; call correctness requires review.

Estimated chance to win moved 1.5 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

Q4 · 01:00Recorded game event

San Francisco 49ers · Play 3994

(1:00) (Punt formation) PENALTY on SF, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play.

Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.

Estimated chance to win moved 0.5 percentage points across this play.

Read the full play Inspect the calculation ↗

THE UNDERLYING RECORD

Source plays 168

Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.

Browse all 168 source plays

Q115:00GAMEPlay 1

GAME

Source play 1Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q115:0019-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SF 4. 29-J.James to SF 36 for 32 yards (80-C.Yankoff).Play 41

19-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SF 4. 29-J.James to SF 36 for 32 yards (80-C.Yankoff).

Source play 41Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q114:55(14:55) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 42 for 6 yards (2-A.Robertson).Play 64

(14:55) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 42 for 6 yards (2-A.Robertson).

Source play 64SF preplay win probability: 57.3%Link to source play ↗

Q114:33(14:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep middle to 44-K.Juszczyk.Play 89

(14:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep middle to 44-K.Juszczyk.

Source play 89SF preplay win probability: 56.8%Link to source play ↗

Q114:29(14:29) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-M.Evans to WAS 34 for 24 yards (2-A.Robertson).Play 112

(14:29) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-M.Evans to WAS 34 for 24 yards (2-A.Robertson).

Source play 112SF preplay win probability: 54.1%Link to source play ↗

Q113:58(13:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 30 for 4 yards (52-S.Styles).Play 137

(13:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 30 for 4 yards (52-S.Styles).

Source play 137SF preplay win probability: 63.2%Link to source play ↗

Q113:22(13:22) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to WAS 22 for 8 yards (0-M.Sainristil).Play 162

(13:22) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to WAS 22 for 8 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

Source play 162SF preplay win probability: 62.2%Link to source play ↗

Q112:57(12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 19 for 3 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).Play 184

(12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 19 for 3 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).

Source play 184SF preplay win probability: 66.0%Link to source play ↗

Q112:19(12:19) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 13 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles).Play 206

(12:19) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 13 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles).

Source play 206SF preplay win probability: 64.8%Link to source play ↗

Q111:40(11:40) 26-K.Black up the middle to WAS 11 for 2 yards (39-J.Reaves).Play 231

(11:40) 26-K.Black up the middle to WAS 11 for 2 yards (39-J.Reaves).

Source play 231SF preplay win probability: 66.3%Link to source play ↗

Q110:58(10:58) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Play 253

(10:58) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 253SF preplay win probability: 67.4%Link to source play ↗

Q110:5318-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.Play 274

18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

Source play 274Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q110:5318-E.Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the WAS 35.Play 289

18-E.Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the WAS 35.

Source play 289Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q110:53(10:53) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SF 38 for 27 yards (27-J.Brown).Play 313

(10:53) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at SF 38 for 27 yards (27-J.Brown).

Source play 313SF preplay win probability: 68.0%Link to source play ↗

Q110:19(10:19) 1-R.White up the middle to SF 36 for 2 yards (53-J.Dugger; 92-O.Odighizuwa).Play 343

(10:19) 1-R.White up the middle to SF 36 for 2 yards (53-J.Dugger; 92-O.Odighizuwa).

Source play 343SF preplay win probability: 64.4%Link to source play ↗

Q109:40(9:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right tackle to SF 33 for 3 yards (51-L.Gifford; 56-K.White).Play 365

(9:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right tackle to SF 33 for 3 yards (51-L.Gifford; 56-K.White).

Source play 365SF preplay win probability: 65.6%Link to source play ↗

Q108:57(8:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 3-S.Diggs.Play 387

(8:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 3-S.Diggs.

Source play 387SF preplay win probability: 67.0%Link to source play ↗

Q108:53(8:53) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.Play 410

(8:53) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Source play 410SF preplay win probability: 71.4%Link to source play ↗

Q108:4819-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SF 4. 4-J.Cowing to SF 28 for 24 yards (56-K.Medrano).Play 430

19-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SF 4. 4-J.Cowing to SF 28 for 24 yards (56-K.Medrano).

Source play 430Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q108:43(8:43) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 18 for 54 yards (25-N.Cross).Play 460

(8:43) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 18 for 54 yards (25-N.Cross).

Source play 460SF preplay win probability: 65.8%Link to source play ↗

Q108:06(8:06) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to WAS 15 for 3 yards (4-F.Luvu; 94-D.Payne).Play 490

(8:06) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to WAS 15 for 3 yards (4-F.Luvu; 94-D.Payne).

Source play 490SF preplay win probability: 74.2%Link to source play ↗

Q107:29(7:29) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 18 for -3 yards (56-K.Medrano).Play 512

(7:29) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 18 for -3 yards (56-K.Medrano).

Source play 512SF preplay win probability: 73.2%Link to source play ↗

Q106:46(6:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SF-75-C.Colby, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 18 - No Play.Play 537

(6:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SF-75-C.Colby, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 18 - No Play.

Source play 537SF preplay win probability: 71.0%Link to source play ↗

Q106:30(6:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to WAS 11 for 12 yards (52-S.Styles).Play 561

(6:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to WAS 11 for 12 yards (52-S.Styles).

Source play 561SF preplay win probability: 69.3%Link to source play ↗

Q105:42Timeout #1 by SF at 05:42.Play 598

Timeout #1 by SF at 05:42.

Source play 598Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q105:42(5:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to WAS 4 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano; 39-J.Reaves).Play 586

(5:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to WAS 4 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano; 39-J.Reaves).

Source play 586SF preplay win probability: 69.7%Link to source play ↗

Q104:55(4:55) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle.Play 615

(4:55) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle.

Source play 615SF preplay win probability: 76.3%Link to source play ↗

Q104:50(4:50) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 1 for 3 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).Play 638

(4:50) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 1 for 3 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).

Source play 638SF preplay win probability: 75.4%Link to source play ↗

Q104:11(4:11) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Play 660

(4:11) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 660SF preplay win probability: 75.6%Link to source play ↗

Q104:0918-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.Play 678

18-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

Source play 678Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q104:0918-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to WAS 3. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 28 for 25 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on SF-89-L.Farrell, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 28.Play 693

18-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to WAS 3. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 28 for 25 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on SF-89-L.Farrell, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 28.

Source play 693Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q104:03(4:03) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to WAS 46 for 3 yards (27-J.Brown).Play 734

(4:03) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to WAS 46 for 3 yards (27-J.Brown).

Source play 734SF preplay win probability: 74.7%Link to source play ↗

Q103:27(3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at SF 49 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner). PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 46 - No Play.Play 756

(3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at SF 49 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner). PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 46 - No Play.

Source play 756SF preplay win probability: 75.6%Link to source play ↗

Q102:59(2:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 44 for 8 yards (20-U.Stout) [55-S.Valdez].Play 794

(2:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 44 for 8 yards (20-U.Stout) [55-S.Valdez].

Source play 794SF preplay win probability: 77.7%Link to source play ↗

Q102:16(2:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 38 for -6 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa). WAS-17-T.McLaurin was injured during the play.Play 819

(2:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 38 for -6 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa). WAS-17-T.McLaurin was injured during the play.

Source play 819SF preplay win probability: 78.7%Link to source play ↗

Q101:39(1:39) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 2. 4-J.Cowing to SF 4 for 2 yards (18-T.Owens).Play 842

(1:39) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 2. 4-J.Cowing to SF 4 for 2 yards (18-T.Owens).

Source play 842SF preplay win probability: 81.4%Link to source play ↗

Q101:29(1:29) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 5-M.Evans.Play 879

(1:29) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 5-M.Evans.

Source play 879SF preplay win probability: 75.1%Link to source play ↗

Q101:24(1:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to SF 11 for 7 yards (52-S.Styles).Play 902

(1:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to SF 11 for 7 yards (52-S.Styles).

Source play 902SF preplay win probability: 73.6%Link to source play ↗

Q100:51(:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep middle to 5-M.Evans (52-S.Styles).Play 941

(:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep middle to 5-M.Evans (52-S.Styles).

Source play 941SF preplay win probability: 74.7%Link to source play ↗

Q100:45(:45) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 41, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.Play 971

(:45) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 41, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.

Source play 971SF preplay win probability: 71.4%Link to source play ↗

Q100:37(:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs to 50 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha).Play 991

(:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs to 50 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha).

Source play 991SF preplay win probability: 75.4%Link to source play ↗

Q100:00END QUARTER 1Play 1016

END QUARTER 1

Source play 1016Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q215:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo ran ob at SF 21 for 29 yards (6-M.Mustapha).Play 1041

(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo ran ob at SF 21 for 29 yards (6-M.Mustapha).

Source play 1041SF preplay win probability: 74.5%Link to source play ↗

Q214:25(14:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 1-R.White.Play 1066

(14:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 1-R.White.

Source play 1066SF preplay win probability: 70.2%Link to source play ↗

Q214:22(14:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-J.Bates ran ob at SF 17 for 4 yards (27-J.Brown).Play 1096

(14:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 87-J.Bates ran ob at SF 17 for 4 yards (27-J.Brown).

Source play 1096SF preplay win probability: 71.4%Link to source play ↗

Q213:43(13:43) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to SF 13 for 4 yards (98-M.Williams).Play 1121

(13:43) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to SF 13 for 4 yards (98-M.Williams).

Source play 1121SF preplay win probability: 72.5%Link to source play ↗

Q213:08(13:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Penalty on WAS-1-R.White, Illegal Shift, declined.Play 1143

(13:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Penalty on WAS-1-R.White, Illegal Shift, declined.

Source play 1143SF preplay win probability: 75.2%Link to source play ↗

Q213:02(13:02) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to SF 18 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles).Play 1184

(13:02) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to SF 18 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles).

Source play 1184SF preplay win probability: 76.9%Link to source play ↗

Q212:29(12:29) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 26-K.Black to SF 21 for 3 yards (92-D.Armstrong).Play 1213

(12:29) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 26-K.Black to SF 21 for 3 yards (92-D.Armstrong).

Source play 1213SF preplay win probability: 79.4%Link to source play ↗

Q211:49(11:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 17-J.Watkins to SF 43 for 22 yards (23-T.Amos) [94-D.Payne].Play 1238

(11:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 17-J.Watkins to SF 43 for 22 yards (23-T.Amos) [94-D.Payne].

Source play 1238SF preplay win probability: 79.9%Link to source play ↗

Q211:04(11:04) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 84-B.Cooks to WAS 44 for 13 yards (20-Q.Martin; 29-R.Douglas).Play 1263

(11:04) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 84-B.Cooks to WAS 44 for 13 yards (20-Q.Martin; 29-R.Douglas).

Source play 1263SF preplay win probability: 83.7%Link to source play ↗

Q210:28(10:28) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 38 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 4-F.Luvu).Play 1288

(10:28) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 38 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 4-F.Luvu).

Source play 1288SF preplay win probability: 85.6%Link to source play ↗

Q209:50(9:50) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to WAS 33 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles; 45-K.Chaisson).Play 1310

(9:50) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to WAS 33 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles; 45-K.Chaisson).

Source play 1310SF preplay win probability: 85.2%Link to source play ↗

Q209:11(9:11) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 21 for 12 yards (45-K.Chaisson; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (45-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by WAS-4-F.Luvu at WAS 19.Play 1332

(9:11) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 21 for 12 yards (45-K.Chaisson; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (45-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by WAS-4-F.Luvu at WAS 19.

Source play 1332SF preplay win probability: 86.2%Link to source play ↗

Q209:01(9:01) 1-R.White right end to WAS 21 for 2 yards (54-F.Warner; 20-U.Stout). PENALTY on WAS-63-L.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 19 - No Play.Play 1369

(9:01) 1-R.White right end to WAS 21 for 2 yards (54-F.Warner; 20-U.Stout). PENALTY on WAS-63-L.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 19 - No Play.

Source play 1369SF preplay win probability: 79.2%Link to source play ↗

Q208:42(8:42) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 7 for -3 yards (93-G.Halton).Play 1409

(8:42) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 7 for -3 yards (93-G.Halton).

Source play 1409SF preplay win probability: 81.3%Link to source play ↗

Q207:57(7:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at WAS 13 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger).Play 1429

(7:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at WAS 13 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger).

Source play 1429SF preplay win probability: 82.7%Link to source play ↗

Q207:21(7:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-R.White to WAS 18 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner; 92-O.Odighizuwa) [94-R.Height].Play 1454

(7:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-R.White to WAS 18 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner; 92-O.Odighizuwa) [94-R.Height].

Source play 1454SF preplay win probability: 82.9%Link to source play ↗

Q206:34(6:34) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 31, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.Play 1479

(6:34) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 31, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

Source play 1479SF preplay win probability: 83.4%Link to source play ↗

Q206:26(6:26) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 44 for 13 yards (2-A.Robertson).Play 1499

(6:26) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 44 for 13 yards (2-A.Robertson).

Source play 1499SF preplay win probability: 82.9%Link to source play ↗

Q205:42(5:42) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle to WAS 47 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves). The ball spot was assisted by replay.Play 1531

(5:42) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle to WAS 47 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves). The ball spot was assisted by replay.

Source play 1531SF preplay win probability: 85.1%Link to source play ↗

Q205:02(5:02) 26-K.Black up the middle to WAS 43 for 4 yards (52-S.Styles).Play 1554

(5:02) 26-K.Black up the middle to WAS 43 for 4 yards (52-S.Styles).

Source play 1554SF preplay win probability: 85.9%Link to source play ↗

Q204:28(4:28) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk to WAS 33 for 10 yards (2-A.Robertson; 52-S.Styles).Play 1576

(4:28) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk to WAS 33 for 10 yards (2-A.Robertson; 52-S.Styles).

Source play 1576SF preplay win probability: 85.9%Link to source play ↗

Q203:59(3:59) (No Huddle) 26-K.Black right guard to WAS 27 for 6 yards (91-D.Wise).Play 1601

(3:59) (No Huddle) 26-K.Black right guard to WAS 27 for 6 yards (91-D.Wise).

Source play 1601SF preplay win probability: 86.9%Link to source play ↗

Q203:21(3:21) 26-K.Black left guard to WAS 24 for 3 yards (98-O.Oweh; 52-S.Styles).Play 1623

(3:21) 26-K.Black left guard to WAS 24 for 3 yards (98-O.Oweh; 52-S.Styles).

Source play 1623SF preplay win probability: 86.7%Link to source play ↗

Q202:35(2:35) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 7 for 17 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on SF-89-L.Farrell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 24 - No Play.Play 1645

(2:35) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 7 for 17 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on SF-89-L.Farrell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 24 - No Play.

Source play 1645SF preplay win probability: 87.9%Link to source play ↗

Q202:12(2:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle to WAS 23 for 11 yards (23-T.Amos).Play 1678

(2:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle to WAS 23 for 11 yards (23-T.Amos).

Source play 1678SF preplay win probability: 83.8%Link to source play ↗

Q202:00(2:00) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 18 for 5 yards (98-O.Oweh).Play 1700

(2:00) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 18 for 5 yards (98-O.Oweh).

Source play 1700SF preplay win probability: 88.4%Link to source play ↗

Q201:18(1:18) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 20 for -2 yards (52-S.Styles). PENALTY on SF-71-T.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 18 - No Play.Play 1731

(1:18) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 20 for -2 yards (52-S.Styles). PENALTY on SF-71-T.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 18 - No Play.

Source play 1731SF preplay win probability: 88.4%Link to source play ↗

Q201:10(1:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 5-M.Evans to WAS 12 for 16 yards (39-J.Reaves). SF-5-M.Evans was injured during the play.Play 1767

(1:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 5-M.Evans to WAS 12 for 16 yards (39-J.Reaves). SF-5-M.Evans was injured during the play.

Source play 1767SF preplay win probability: 85.8%Link to source play ↗

Q201:03Timeout #2 by SF at 01:03.Play 1807

Timeout #2 by SF at 01:03.

Source play 1807Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q201:03(1:03) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to WAS 7 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles; 96-S.Tuttle).Play 1795

(1:03) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to WAS 7 for 5 yards (52-S.Styles; 96-S.Tuttle).

Source play 1795SF preplay win probability: 89.2%Link to source play ↗

Q200:58Timeout #1 by WAS at 00:58.Play 1836

Timeout #1 by WAS at 00:58.

Source play 1836Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:58(:58) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle (29-R.Douglas).Play 1824

(:58) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle (29-R.Douglas).

Source play 1824SF preplay win probability: 89.2%Link to source play ↗

Q200:54(:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to WAS 3 for 4 yards (52-S.Styles).Play 1854

(:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to WAS 3 for 4 yards (52-S.Styles).

Source play 1854SF preplay win probability: 88.9%Link to source play ↗

Q200:49Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:49.Play 1891

Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:49.

Source play 1891Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:49(:49) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to WAS 1 for 2 yards (96-S.Tuttle).Play 1879

(:49) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to WAS 1 for 2 yards (96-S.Tuttle).

Source play 1879SF preplay win probability: 89.3%Link to source play ↗

Q200:18(:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play.Play 1908

(:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play.

Source play 1908SF preplay win probability: 91.8%Link to source play ↗

Q200:1318-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.Play 1929

18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

Source play 1929Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:1318-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to WAS 3. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 23 for 20 yards (41-J.Graham; 24-A.Davis).Play 1944

18-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to WAS 3. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 23 for 20 yards (41-J.Graham; 24-A.Davis).

Source play 1944Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q200:06(:06) 5-J.Daniels kneels to WAS 22 for -1 yards.Play 1967

(:06) 5-J.Daniels kneels to WAS 22 for -1 yards.

Source play 1967SF preplay win probability: 92.8%Link to source play ↗

Q200:00END QUARTER 2Play 1989

END QUARTER 2

Source play 1989Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q315:0018-E.Pineiro kicks 61 yards from SF 35 to WAS 4. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 31 for 27 yards (27-J.Brown; 47-K.Kareem).Play 2009

18-E.Pineiro kicks 61 yards from SF 35 to WAS 4. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 31 for 27 yards (27-J.Brown; 47-K.Kareem).

Source play 2009Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q314:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 13-T.Burks ran ob at WAS 49 for 18 yards.Play 2042

(14:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 13-T.Burks ran ob at WAS 49 for 18 yards.

Source play 2042SF preplay win probability: 92.1%Link to source play ↗

Q314:21(14:21) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to SF 45 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger; 94-R.Height).Play 2072

(14:21) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to SF 45 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger; 94-R.Height).

Source play 2072SF preplay win probability: 90.9%Link to source play ↗

Q313:41(13:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 82-B.Sinnott. PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 45 - No Play.Play 2094

(13:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 82-B.Sinnott. PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 45 - No Play.

Source play 2094SF preplay win probability: 91.0%Link to source play ↗

Q313:35(13:35) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play.Play 2128

(13:35) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play.

Source play 2128SF preplay win probability: 91.9%Link to source play ↗

Q313:35(13:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 13-T.Burks to SF 49 for 11 yards (2-D.Lenoir).Play 2157

(13:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 13-T.Burks to SF 49 for 11 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

Source play 2157SF preplay win probability: 92.5%Link to source play ↗

Q312:55(12:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 39 for -12 yards (98-M.Williams).Play 2187

(12:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 39 for -12 yards (98-M.Williams).

Source play 2187SF preplay win probability: 92.4%Link to source play ↗

Q312:09(12:09) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to SF 16, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 16.Play 2207

(12:09) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to SF 16, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 16.

Source play 2207SF preplay win probability: 94.3%Link to source play ↗

Q312:01(12:01) 23-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at SF 27 for 6 yards (4-F.Luvu).Play 2227

(12:01) 23-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at SF 27 for 6 yards (4-F.Luvu).

Source play 2227SF preplay win probability: 94.6%Link to source play ↗

Q311:26(11:26) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle to SF 28 for 1 yard (45-K.Chaisson).Play 2268

(11:26) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle to SF 28 for 1 yard (45-K.Chaisson).

Source play 2268SF preplay win probability: 94.6%Link to source play ↗

Q310:47(10:47) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 33 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne; 4-F.Luvu).Play 2295

(10:47) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 33 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne; 4-F.Luvu).

Source play 2295SF preplay win probability: 94.4%Link to source play ↗

Q310:03(10:03) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle to WAS 32 for 35 yards (20-Q.Martin; 29-R.Douglas).Play 2317

(10:03) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle to WAS 32 for 35 yards (20-Q.Martin; 29-R.Douglas).

Source play 2317SF preplay win probability: 94.9%Link to source play ↗

Q309:19(9:19) 26-K.Black left end to WAS 23 for 9 yards (2-A.Robertson; 4-F.Luvu).Play 2342

(9:19) 26-K.Black left end to WAS 23 for 9 yards (2-A.Robertson; 4-F.Luvu).

Source play 2342SF preplay win probability: 96.3%Link to source play ↗

Q308:42(8:42) 26-K.Black up the middle to WAS 23 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).Play 2364

(8:42) 26-K.Black up the middle to WAS 23 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).

Source play 2364SF preplay win probability: 96.8%Link to source play ↗

Q308:01(8:01) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to WAS 21 for 2 yards (25-N.Cross).Play 2386

(8:01) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to WAS 21 for 2 yards (25-N.Cross).

Source play 2386SF preplay win probability: 96.8%Link to source play ↗

Q307:26(7:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 17 for 4 yards (29-R.Douglas).Play 2408

(7:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 17 for 4 yards (29-R.Douglas).

Source play 2408SF preplay win probability: 96.8%Link to source play ↗

Q306:47(6:47) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to WAS 14 for 3 yards (4-F.Luvu; 92-D.Armstrong).Play 2433

(6:47) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to WAS 14 for 3 yards (4-F.Luvu; 92-D.Armstrong).

Source play 2433SF preplay win probability: 97.0%Link to source play ↗

Q306:04(6:04) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 84-B.Cooks (4-F.Luvu).Play 2455

(6:04) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 84-B.Cooks (4-F.Luvu).

Source play 2455SF preplay win probability: 97.5%Link to source play ↗

Q306:01(6:01) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.Play 2478

(6:01) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

Source play 2478SF preplay win probability: 96.3%Link to source play ↗

Q305:5618-E.Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the WAS 35.Play 2498

18-E.Pineiro kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to end zone, Touchback to the WAS 35.

Source play 2498Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q305:56(5:56) 1-R.White right guard to WAS 43 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner).Play 2522

(5:56) 1-R.White right guard to WAS 43 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner).

Source play 2522SF preplay win probability: 96.1%Link to source play ↗

Q305:19(5:19) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to WAS 48 for 5 yards (56-K.White).Play 2544

(5:19) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to WAS 48 for 5 yards (56-K.White).

Source play 2544SF preplay win probability: 96.3%Link to source play ↗

Q304:45(4:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at SF 36 for 16 yards (53-J.Dugger).Play 2566

(4:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at SF 36 for 16 yards (53-J.Dugger).

Source play 2566SF preplay win probability: 97.2%Link to source play ↗

Q304:10(4:10) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to SF 38 for -2 yards (55-S.Valdez, 53-J.Dugger).Play 2591

(4:10) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to SF 38 for -2 yards (55-S.Valdez, 53-J.Dugger).

Source play 2591SF preplay win probability: 96.7%Link to source play ↗

Q303:35(3:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to SF 31 for 7 yards (53-J.Dugger).Play 2613

(3:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to SF 31 for 7 yards (53-J.Dugger).

Source play 2613SF preplay win probability: 97.1%Link to source play ↗

Q302:54(2:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Burks [94-R.Height].Play 2638

(2:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Burks [94-R.Height].

Source play 2638SF preplay win probability: 97.3%Link to source play ↗

Q302:50(2:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at SF 18 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).Play 2661

(2:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at SF 18 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).

Source play 2661SF preplay win probability: 97.7%Link to source play ↗

Q302:16(2:16) 26-J.McNichols left guard to SF 12 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-98-M.Williams, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SF 18 - No Play.Play 2691

(2:16) 26-J.McNichols left guard to SF 12 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-98-M.Williams, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SF 18 - No Play.

Source play 2691SF preplay win probability: 96.6%Link to source play ↗

Q302:01(2:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at SF 11 for 2 yards (53-J.Dugger).Play 2724

(2:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at SF 11 for 2 yards (53-J.Dugger).

Source play 2724SF preplay win probability: 97.0%Link to source play ↗

Q301:29(1:29) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols right end to SF 7 for 4 yards (94-R.Height; 98-M.Williams). WAS-76-S.Cosmi was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-93-G.Halton, Low Block, 4 yards, enforced at SF 7.Play 2754

(1:29) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols right end to SF 7 for 4 yards (94-R.Height; 98-M.Williams). WAS-76-S.Cosmi was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-93-G.Halton, Low Block, 4 yards, enforced at SF 7.

Source play 2754SF preplay win probability: 97.1%Link to source play ↗

Q300:59(:59) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle to SF 1 for 2 yards (96-J.Thompson).Play 2790

(:59) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle to SF 1 for 2 yards (96-J.Thompson).

Source play 2790SF preplay win probability: 96.8%Link to source play ↗

Q300:18(:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [6-M.Mustapha].Play 2812

(:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [6-M.Mustapha].

Source play 2812SF preplay win probability: 96.5%Link to source play ↗

Q300:1519-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.Play 2833

19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Source play 2833Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q300:1519-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35.Play 2848

19-D.Stevens kicks 65 yards from WAS 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35.

Source play 2848Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q300:14(:14) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 26 for -9 yards (96-S.Tuttle).Play 2872

(:14) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 26 for -9 yards (96-S.Tuttle).

Source play 2872SF preplay win probability: 95.7%Link to source play ↗

Q300:00END QUARTER 3Play 2892

END QUARTER 3

Source play 2892Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q415:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 34 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 52-S.Styles).Play 2912

(15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 34 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 52-S.Styles).

Source play 2912SF preplay win probability: 94.9%Link to source play ↗

Q414:20(14:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle (39-J.Reaves).Play 2937

(14:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle (39-J.Reaves).

Source play 2937SF preplay win probability: 94.4%Link to source play ↗

Q414:14(14:14) 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-L.McCaffrey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-41-J.Graham at WAS 20. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.Play 2960

Source play 2960SF preplay win probability: 93.8%Link to source play ↗

Q414:05(14:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 22 for 2 yards (54-F.Warner). ** Injury Update: WAS-76-S.Cosmi has returned to the game.Play 2990

(14:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 22 for 2 yards (54-F.Warner). ** Injury Update: WAS-76-S.Cosmi has returned to the game.

Source play 2990SF preplay win probability: 94.2%Link to source play ↗

Q413:39(13:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 26 for 4 yards (53-J.Dugger).Play 3074

(13:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs to WAS 26 for 4 yards (53-J.Dugger).

Source play 3074SF preplay win probability: 94.8%Link to source play ↗

Q413:00(13:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (98-M.Williams). PENALTY on SF-0-R.Green, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 26 - No Play.Play 3102

(13:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (98-M.Williams). PENALTY on SF-0-R.Green, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 26 - No Play.

Source play 3102SF preplay win probability: 94.8%Link to source play ↗

Q412:55(12:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 6-D.Brown to WAS 37 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner).Play 3136

(12:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 6-D.Brown to WAS 37 for 6 yards (54-F.Warner).

Source play 3136SF preplay win probability: 93.3%Link to source play ↗

Q412:28(12:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 43 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger).Play 3161

(12:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 43 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger).

Source play 3161SF preplay win probability: 93.8%Link to source play ↗

Q411:46(11:46) 1-R.White left tackle to WAS 48 for 5 yards (41-J.Graham).Play 3191

(11:46) 1-R.White left tackle to WAS 48 for 5 yards (41-J.Graham).

Source play 3191SF preplay win probability: 93.9%Link to source play ↗

Q411:15(11:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at SF 43 for 9 yards (41-J.Graham).Play 3218

(11:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at SF 43 for 9 yards (41-J.Graham).

Source play 3218SF preplay win probability: 94.6%Link to source play ↗

Q410:39(10:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 11-L.McCaffrey.Play 3243

(10:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 11-L.McCaffrey.

Source play 3243SF preplay win probability: 93.5%Link to source play ↗

Q410:34(10:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to SF 41 for 2 yards (47-K.Kareem).Play 3266

(10:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to SF 41 for 2 yards (47-K.Kareem).

Source play 3266SF preplay win probability: 94.4%Link to source play ↗

Q409:53(9:53) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at SF 18 for 23 yards (6-M.Mustapha). PENALTY on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Roughing the Passer, 9 yards, enforced at SF 18.Play 3291

(9:53) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at SF 18 for 23 yards (6-M.Mustapha). PENALTY on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Roughing the Passer, 9 yards, enforced at SF 18.

Source play 3291SF preplay win probability: 95.4%Link to source play ↗

Q409:26(9:26) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-R.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Play 3327

(9:26) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-R.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Source play 3327SF preplay win probability: 91.0%Link to source play ↗

Q409:2219-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.Play 3359

19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Source play 3359Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q409:2219-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SF 4. 29-J.James pushed ob at SF 30 for 26 yards (6-D.Brown; 20-Q.Martin).Play 3374

19-D.Stevens kicks 61 yards from WAS 35 to SF 4. 29-J.James pushed ob at SF 30 for 26 yards (6-D.Brown; 20-Q.Martin).

Source play 3374Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q409:14(9:14) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left guard to SF 36 for 6 yards (45-K.Chaisson).Play 3409

(9:14) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left guard to SF 36 for 6 yards (45-K.Chaisson).

Source play 3409SF preplay win probability: 84.6%Link to source play ↗

Q408:36(8:36) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 30 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh).Play 3431

(8:36) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 30 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh).

Source play 3431SF preplay win probability: 87.9%Link to source play ↗

Q407:56(7:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey.Play 3451

(7:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey.

Source play 3451SF preplay win probability: 82.8%Link to source play ↗

Q407:53(7:53) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.Play 3474

(7:53) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.

Source play 3474SF preplay win probability: 78.9%Link to source play ↗

Q407:46(7:46) 1-R.White right guard to WAS 25 for 3 yards (2-D.Lenoir).Play 3498

(7:46) 1-R.White right guard to WAS 25 for 3 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

Source play 3498SF preplay win probability: 80.8%Link to source play ↗

Q407:08(7:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 28 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).Play 3527

(7:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to WAS 28 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).

Source play 3527SF preplay win probability: 82.1%Link to source play ↗

Q406:25(6:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-A.Williams to WAS 38 for 10 yards (53-J.Dugger).Play 3557

(6:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 14-A.Williams to WAS 38 for 10 yards (53-J.Dugger).

Source play 3557SF preplay win probability: 82.9%Link to source play ↗

Q405:44(5:44) 26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 39 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner; 56-K.White).Play 3582

(5:44) 26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 39 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner; 56-K.White).

Source play 3582SF preplay win probability: 79.3%Link to source play ↗

Q405:03(5:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 13-T.Burks to SF 31 for 30 yards (24-A.Davis).Play 3609

(5:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 13-T.Burks to SF 31 for 30 yards (24-A.Davis).

Source play 3609SF preplay win probability: 81.1%Link to source play ↗

Q404:19(4:19) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 25.Play 3634

(4:19) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 25.

Source play 3634SF preplay win probability: 72.2%Link to source play ↗

Q404:11(4:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to SF 36 for 4 yards (53-J.Dugger).Play 3669

(4:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to SF 36 for 4 yards (53-J.Dugger).

Source play 3669SF preplay win probability: 77.1%Link to source play ↗

Q403:43(3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 1-R.White to SF 29 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner).Play 3691

(3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 1-R.White to SF 29 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner).

Source play 3691SF preplay win probability: 78.0%Link to source play ↗

Q403:06(3:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.Williams.Play 3716

(3:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.Williams.

Source play 3716SF preplay win probability: 78.2%Link to source play ↗

Q403:01Timeout #1 by WAS at 03:01.Play 3751

Timeout #1 by WAS at 03:01.

Source play 3751Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q403:01(3:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 29 - No Play.Play 3739

(3:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 29 - No Play.

Source play 3739SF preplay win probability: 83.9%Link to source play ↗

Q402:56(2:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 13-T.Burks to SF 17 for 7 yards (2-D.Lenoir).Play 3777

(2:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 13-T.Burks to SF 17 for 7 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

Source play 3777SF preplay win probability: 65.1%Link to source play ↗

Q402:26(2:26) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right.Play 3802

(2:26) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right.

Source play 3802SF preplay win probability: 64.8%Link to source play ↗

Q402:19(2:19) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard to SF 17 for no gain (6-M.Mustapha).Play 3832

(2:19) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard to SF 17 for no gain (6-M.Mustapha).

Source play 3832SF preplay win probability: 67.0%Link to source play ↗

Q402:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).Play 3854

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).

Source play 3854SF preplay win probability: 74.7%Link to source play ↗

Q401:54(1:54) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 16 for -1 yards (94-D.Payne).Play 3891

(1:54) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 16 for -1 yards (94-D.Payne).

Source play 3891SF preplay win probability: 96.9%Link to source play ↗

Q401:50Timeout #2 by WAS at 01:50.Play 3932

Timeout #2 by WAS at 01:50.

Source play 3932Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q401:50(1:50) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 19 for 3 yards (92-D.Armstrong; 4-F.Luvu).Play 3920

(1:50) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 19 for 3 yards (92-D.Armstrong; 4-F.Luvu).

Source play 3920SF preplay win probability: 96.6%Link to source play ↗

Q401:46Timeout #3 by WAS at 01:46.Play 3977

Timeout #3 by WAS at 01:46.

Source play 3977Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q401:46(1:46) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 25 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 2-A.Robertson).Play 3965

(1:46) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 25 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 2-A.Robertson).

Source play 3965SF preplay win probability: 96.9%Link to source play ↗

Q401:00(1:00) (Punt formation) PENALTY on SF, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play.Play 3994

(1:00) (Punt formation) PENALTY on SF, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play.

Source play 3994SF preplay win probability: 96.9%Link to source play ↗

Q401:00(1:00) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.Play 4022

(1:00) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

Source play 4022SF preplay win probability: 96.5%Link to source play ↗

Q400:52(:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 1-R.White to SF 45 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner).Play 4062

(:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 1-R.White to SF 45 for 9 yards (54-F.Warner).

Source play 4062SF preplay win probability: 84.5%Link to source play ↗

Q400:38(:38) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels spiked the ball to stop the clock.Play 4087

(:38) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Source play 4087SF preplay win probability: 76.8%Link to source play ↗

Q400:37(:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 14-A.Williams to SF 28 for 17 yards (27-J.Brown).Play 4110

(:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 14-A.Williams to SF 28 for 17 yards (27-J.Brown).

Source play 4110SF preplay win probability: 79.8%Link to source play ↗

Q400:22(:22) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels spiked the ball to stop the clock.Play 4135

(:22) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Source play 4135SF preplay win probability: 77.9%Link to source play ↗

Q400:21(:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [94-R.Height]. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at SF 28. 10-second runoff.Play 4158

(:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [94-R.Height]. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at SF 28. 10-second runoff.

Source play 4158SF preplay win probability: 82.3%Link to source play ↗

Q400:06Timeout #1 by SF at 00:06.Play 4207

Timeout #1 by SF at 00:06.

Source play 4207Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

Q400:06(:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 42 for -18 yards (sack split by 56-K.White and 94-R.Height).Play 4181

(:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 42 for -18 yards (sack split by 56-K.White and 94-R.Height).

Source play 4181SF preplay win probability: 89.4%Link to source play ↗

Q400:00END GAMEPlay 4222

END GAME

Source play 4222Preplay win probability unavailableLink to source play ↗

CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 36Optional calculations for individual plays.

Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.

Q413:00Penalty · WAS(13:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (98-M.Williams). PENALTY on SF-0-R.Green, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 26 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3102Link to event

Observed ruling consequence SF

-2.82 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 69
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -13
Game seconds remaining: 775
Half seconds remaining: 775
Quarter seconds remaining: 775
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 4
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 74
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -13
Game seconds remaining: 775
Half seconds remaining: 775
Quarter seconds remaining: 775
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence SF

-2.62 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Down: 1
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 69
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -13
Game seconds remaining: 775
Half seconds remaining: 775
Quarter seconds remaining: 775
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 4
Down: 4
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 4
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 74
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -13
Game seconds remaining: 775
Half seconds remaining: 775
Quarter seconds remaining: 775
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q106:46Penalty · SF(6:46) (Shotgun) PENALTY on SF-75-C.Colby, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 18 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 537Link to event

Observed ruling consequence SF

-1.69 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 15
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 23
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 4
Game seconds remaining: 3106
Half seconds remaining: 1306
Quarter seconds remaining: 406
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 1
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 18
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 4
Game seconds remaining: 3106
Half seconds remaining: 1306
Quarter seconds remaining: 406
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence SF

-0.6 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 15
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 23
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 4
Game seconds remaining: 3106
Half seconds remaining: 1306
Quarter seconds remaining: 406
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 1
Down: 3
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 10
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 18
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 4
Game seconds remaining: 3106
Half seconds remaining: 1306
Quarter seconds remaining: 406
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q313:35Penalty · WAS(13:35) (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 45 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2128Link to event

Observed ruling consequence SF

0.58 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 19
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 60
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -17
Game seconds remaining: 1715
Half seconds remaining: 1715
Quarter seconds remaining: 815
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 3
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 14
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 55
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -17
Game seconds remaining: 1715
Half seconds remaining: 1715
Quarter seconds remaining: 815
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Ruling expected points consequence SF

0.4 points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 19
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 60
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -17
Game seconds remaining: 1715
Half seconds remaining: 1715
Quarter seconds remaining: 815
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Qtr: 3
Down: 2
Roof: outdoors
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 14
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Spread line: 0
Yardline 100: 55
Receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -17
Game seconds remaining: 1715
Half seconds remaining: 1715
Quarter seconds remaining: 815
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Assumptions

Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q100:45Fourth down · SF(:45) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 41, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.

Not reviewedPlay 971Link to event

Fourth down decision cost SF

0.52 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 3
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 2.900557675908759
Yardline 100: 89
Elapsed share: 0.2375
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 29.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 7.5
Original posteam: SF
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: 10
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 2745
Half seconds remaining: 945
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 45
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.8709493013862736

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.87095/ NA/0.86576
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q200:49Fourth down · SF(:49) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to WAS 1 for 2 yards (96-S.Tuttle).

Not reviewedPlay 1879Link to event

Fourth down decision cost SF

0.05 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 1
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 1.071808560402283
Yardline 100: 3
Elapsed share: 0.4863888888888889
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 29.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 7.5
Original posteam: SF
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: 10
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 1849
Half seconds remaining: 49
Away timeouts remaining: 1
Home timeouts remaining: 1
Quarter seconds remaining: 49
Defteam timeouts remaining: 1
Posteam timeouts remaining: 1

Supported alternative

Action: fg
ExpectedWp: 0.9443875637195143

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.94392/0.94439/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q101:39Fumble · WAS(1:39) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 2. 4-J.Cowing to SF 4 for 2 yards (18-T.Owens).

Not reviewedPlay 842Link to event

Fourth down decision cost WAS

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 15
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 3.079918145642591
Yardline 100: 62
Elapsed share: 0.2225
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: WAS
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -10
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 2799
Half seconds remaining: 999
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 99
Defteam timeouts remaining: 2
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.1005549539512559

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.08826/ NA/0.10055
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q213:08Fourth down · WAS(13:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Penalty on WAS-1-R.White, Illegal Shift, declined.

Not reviewedPlay 1143Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost WAS

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 2
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 2.436246599626381
Yardline 100: 13
Elapsed share: 0.2811111111111111
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: WAS
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -10
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 2588
Half seconds remaining: 788
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 788
Defteam timeouts remaining: 2
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.1474676449839069

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14747/0.12986/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q206:34Fourth down · WAS(6:34) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 31, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

Not reviewedPlay 1479Link to event

Fourth down decision cost WAS

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 2
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 11
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 1.572522154680191
Yardline 100: 82
Elapsed share: 0.3905555555555555
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: WAS
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -10
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 2194
Half seconds remaining: 394
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 394
Defteam timeouts remaining: 2
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.0808328598738084

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.07639/ NA/0.08083
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q414:14Fourth down · SF(14:14) 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-L.McCaffrey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-41-J.Graham at WAS 20. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.

Not reviewedPlay 2960Link to event

Fourth down decision cost SF

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 11
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 0.3547974944033943
Yardline 100: 66
Elapsed share: 0.7627777777777778
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 29.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 7.5
Original posteam: SF
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 13
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 854
Half seconds remaining: 854
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 854
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.9654277934981694

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.96017/ NA/0.96543
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q407:53Fourth down · SF(7:53) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.

Not reviewedPlay 3474Link to event

Fourth down decision cost SF

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 10
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 0.2323427971568495
Yardline 100: 70
Elapsed share: 0.8686111111111111
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 29.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 7.5
Original posteam: SF
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 6
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 473
Half seconds remaining: 473
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 473
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: punt
ExpectedWp: 0.8461834230213471

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82414/ NA/0.84618
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q402:00Fourth down · WAS(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).

Not reviewedPlay 3854Link to event

Fourth down decision cost WAS

0 percentage points Supported

Actual state

Qtr: 4
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 3
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 0.1569600999899373
Yardline 100: 17
Elapsed share: 0.9666666666666667
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: WAS
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -6
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 120
Half seconds remaining: 120
Away timeouts remaining: 2
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 120
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.1747308514339572

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17473/0.09041/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q110:53Kick · SF18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

Not reviewedPlay 274Link to event

Extra point points above expectation SF

-0.88 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Show the remaining 24 recorded events

Q108:53Kick · WAS(8:53) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Not reviewedPlay 410Link to event

Fourth down decision cost WAS

0.19 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 5
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 4.988450012452744
Yardline 100: 33
Elapsed share: 0.1019444444444444
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22
Receive 2h ko: 1
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: WAS
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: -7
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 3233
Half seconds remaining: 1433
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 533
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.1734485228833286

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.17345/0.17157/0.14236
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation WAS

0.73 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q105:42Fourth down · SF(5:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to WAS 4 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano; 39-J.Reaves).

Not reviewedPlay 586Link to event

Fourth down decision cost SF

0 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 1
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 3
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 4.034583281960058
Yardline 100: 11
Elapsed share: 0.155
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 29.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 7.5
Original posteam: SF
Home receive 2h ko: -1
Score differential: 4
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 3042
Half seconds remaining: 1242
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 2
Quarter seconds remaining: 342
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 2

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.8285412573097324

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.82854/0.82105/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q104:09Kick · SF18-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

Not reviewedPlay 678Link to event

Extra point points above expectation SF

-0.88 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q104:09Penalty · WAS18-E.Pineiro kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to WAS 3. 11-L.McCaffrey to WAS 28 for 25 yards (33-S.Neal). PENALTY on SF-89-L.Farrell, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 28.

Not reviewedPlay 693Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q103:27Penalty · WAS(3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at SF 49 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner). PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 46 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 756Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q209:11Fumble · SF(9:11) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 21 for 12 yards (45-K.Chaisson; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (45-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by WAS-4-F.Luvu at WAS 19.

Not reviewedPlay 1332Link to event

Fumble recoveries above expectation SF

-0.36 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Fumble recoveries above expectation WAS

0.36 recoveries Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome.
Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches.
Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q209:01Penalty · WAS(9:01) 1-R.White right end to WAS 21 for 2 yards (54-F.Warner; 20-U.Stout). PENALTY on WAS-63-L.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 19 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1369Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q202:35Penalty · SF(2:35) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to WAS 7 for 17 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on SF-89-L.Farrell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 24 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1645Link to event

Observed ruling consequence SF

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q201:18Penalty · SF(1:18) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to WAS 20 for -2 yards (52-S.Styles). PENALTY on SF-71-T.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 18 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 1731Link to event

Observed ruling consequence SF

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q200:13Kick · SF18-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

Not reviewedPlay 1929Link to event

Extra point points above expectation SF

-0.88 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled

Q313:41Penalty · WAS(13:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 82-B.Sinnott. PENALTY on WAS-74-B.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 45 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2094Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q312:09Penalty · WAS(12:09) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to SF 16, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 16.

Not reviewedPlay 2207Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q306:01Kick · SF(6:01) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

Not reviewedPlay 2478Link to event

Fourth down decision cost SF

0.03 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: SF
Ydstogo: 3
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 0.5576711270791727
Yardline 100: 14
Elapsed share: 0.6497222222222222
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 29.5
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: 7.5
Original posteam: SF
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: 17
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 1261
Half seconds remaining: 1261
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 361
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.9843302680444977

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.98433/0.98402/ NA
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Field goal points above expectation SF

0.12 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q302:50Fourth down · WAS(2:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at SF 18 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).

Not reviewedPlay 2661Link to event

Fourth down decision cost WAS

0 percentage points · experimental Experimental

Actual state

Qtr: 3
Dome: 0
Down: 4
Era0: 0
Era1: 0
Era2: 0
Era3: 0
Era4: 1
Roof: outdoors
Type: reg
Runoff: 0
Season: 2026
Posteam: WAS
Ydstogo: 5
Outdoors: 1
Away team: WAS
Home team: SF
Away total: 22
Home total: 29.5
Total line: 51.5
Retractable: 0
Spread line: 7.5
Spread time: 0.4510360132964784
Yardline 100: 31
Elapsed share: 0.7027777777777777
Fg model roof: 11
Posteam total: 22
Receive 2h ko: 0
Posteam spread: -7.5
Original posteam: WAS
Home receive 2h ko: 0
Score differential: -20
Home opening kickoff: 1
Game seconds remaining: 1070
Half seconds remaining: 1070
Away timeouts remaining: 3
Home timeouts remaining: 3
Quarter seconds remaining: 170
Defteam timeouts remaining: 3
Posteam timeouts remaining: 3

Supported alternative

Action: go
ExpectedWp: 0.009721170115571167

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.00972/0.00967/0.00588
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled

Q302:16Penalty · WAS(2:16) 26-J.McNichols left guard to SF 12 for 6 yards (53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-98-M.Williams, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at SF 18 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 2691Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q301:29Penalty · WAS(1:29) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols right end to SF 7 for 4 yards (94-R.Height; 98-M.Williams). WAS-76-S.Cosmi was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-93-G.Halton, Low Block, 4 yards, enforced at SF 7.

Not reviewedPlay 2754Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q300:15Kick · WAS19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Not reviewedPlay 2833Link to event

Extra point points above expectation WAS

0.08 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q409:53Penalty · WAS(9:53) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at SF 18 for 23 yards (6-M.Mustapha). PENALTY on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Roughing the Passer, 9 yards, enforced at SF 18.

Not reviewedPlay 3291Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q409:22Kick · WAS19-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Not reviewedPlay 3359Link to event

Extra point points above expectation WAS

0.08 points Supported

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors.
Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model.
Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023

Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled

Q404:19Penalty · WAS(4:19) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 25.

Not reviewedPlay 3634Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q403:01Penalty · WAS(3:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 29 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3739Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q401:00Penalty · SF(1:00) (Punt formation) PENALTY on SF, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play.

Not reviewedPlay 3994Link to event

Observed ruling consequence SF

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost SF

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q401:00Penalty · SF(1:00) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

Not reviewedPlay 4022Link to event

Observed ruling consequence SF

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Fourth down decision cost SF

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP.
Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff.
No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.

Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled

Q400:21Penalty · WAS(:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [94-R.Height]. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at SF 28. 10-second runoff.

Not reviewedPlay 4158Link to event

Observed ruling consequence WAS

Unavailable Unavailable

Actual state

State not available.

Supported alternative

No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.

Assumptions

Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.

Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled

ABOUT THIS REPORTData & report historySources, calculation notes and earlier versions.

Automatic analysis

Complete

Updates automatically when source data changes.

Source data

Updated source data

This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.

Data limitations and calculation notes (3)

Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation.
Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent.
Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified.

SHA-256 e4f96842f776b18bf9b20eb0e67270f14d1c842460bc39eb502e4455560bff3b

Model versions and technical record

nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.

nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1

Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.

Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.

fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1

Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022

No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.

overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1

Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons

Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.

game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5

Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only

Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.

spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1

Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons

Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.

game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1

Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.

Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.

Analysis input hash: 2d62f94644208a52ca4bb239c49831ec692372c9724e214c6178f8514d9551b0

Report updates

Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.

Version 2 · Latest ↗
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Oct 20, 2026, 4:40 AM UTC
Version 1 ↗
Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Oct 20, 2026, 3:50 AM UTC

Opening the record…

Game statistic

WASLOSS

SFWIN

Points scored

Total offensive yards

314

375

Penalties

Penalty yards

Turnover margin

-1

Non-offensive touchdowns

Comparison

WAS

Actual

7 / 66 yd

11 / 88 yd

Expected for this matchup

5.9 / 49.1 yd

6.1 / 51.8 yd

League average

6 / 49.5 yd

Team’s usual penalties

5.8 / 48.5 yd · 85 games

5.8 / 49.7 yd · 85 games

Opponent usually draws

5.5 / 44.1 yd · 85 games

5.9 / 49.6 yd · 85 games

Team history with this referee

WAS

Games

Wins–losses–ties

4–2–0

1–0–0

Team penalties per game

5 / 35.2 yd

2 / 10 yd

Period

Clock

Source play

SF win chance

Estimate source