Hmm (3/5): 2 defensive penalties kept one DEN drive alive.
Result versus box score
Fair · 1/5
Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: LA by 10.1; actual result: DEN by 4.
The 14.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 82 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 30.48%
Penalty pattern
Debatable · 2/5
DEN minus LA penalty-count difference: -8 versus 0.5 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 44 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 17.31%
Result versus spread
Fair · 1/5
Recorded spread: DEN by 1.5; actual result: DEN by 4. The difference was 2.5 points.
6,108 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive
Hmm · 3/5
2 defensive penalties gave DEN first downs on third or fourth down during one drive.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds
Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.
Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.
Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.
Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
6,108 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (83.9%).
Where this comparison comes from
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Fan feedback
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Notable plays 9+
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 01:01Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4591
(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LA awarded DEN a first down on third down; call correctness requires review.
2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on DEN drive 21; review the sequence together.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.
Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game.
Estimated chance to win moved 10.2 percentage points across this play.
(1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LA awarded DEN a first down on third down; call correctness requires review.
2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on DEN drive 21; review the sequence together.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.
Estimated chance to win moved 9.4 percentage points across this play.
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Q113:49(13:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Allen to LA 48 for 6 yards (15-N.Bonitto; 2-P.Surtain).
CHECK THE CALCULATIONSPlay-by-play model evidence 38Optional calculations for individual plays.+
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q211:03Penalty · LA(11:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play.+
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 87.7 yards across both teams.
Team history with this head referee
Team history with this referee
LA
DEN
Games
6
6
Wins–losses–ties
2–4–0
4–2–0
Team penalties per game
3.8 / 31.5 yd
7.5 / 58.3 yd
Referee comparison details
Home teams: 5.2 / 43.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 44.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Bill Vinovich; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline.
The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away.
Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome.
Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting.
Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled.
DEN received 2 first downs from LA penalties on third or fourth down during drive 21. Review these plays together; this does not establish that any call was wrong.
Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation.
These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations.
Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers.
Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded.
At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests.
Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs.
Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check.
Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons.
Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model.
Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent.
Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator.
Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded.
Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns.
Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded.
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
About this chart
172 model estimates across 202 recorded game entries.
30 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (202 entries)
Denver Broncos chance to win and estimate source for every recorded game entry
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Observed 1 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q4 · 00:26Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 4904
(:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at DEN 34 for 14 yards.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately.
Estimated chance to win moved 3.5 percentage points across this play.
(:51) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at LA 1 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately.
Estimated chance to win moved 1.9 percentage points across this play.
(11:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on DEN awarded LA a first down on third down; call correctness requires review.
Estimated chance to win moved 4.8 percentage points across this play.
(3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.
Estimated chance to win moved 4.0 percentage points across this play.
3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review.
Estimated chance to win moved 0.1 percentage points across this play.
Q107:30(7:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 30 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)Play 441
(7:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 30 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q102:18(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44 - No Play.Play 842
(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44 - No Play.
Q100:37(:37) 23-K.Williams left guard to DEN 34 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). ** Injury Update: LA-84-C.Parkinson has returned to the game.Play 999
(:37) 23-K.Williams left guard to DEN 34 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). ** Injury Update: LA-84-C.Parkinson has returned to the game.
Q213:43(13:43) 24-B.Corum right tackle to DEN 5 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LA-73-S.Avila, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 8 - No Play.Play 1127
(13:43) 24-B.Corum right tackle to DEN 5 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LA-73-S.Avila, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 8 - No Play.
Q211:03(11:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play.Play 1371
(11:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play.
Q206:33(6:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 4 for 16 yards (22-B.Jones) [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on LA-17-D.Adams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play. Penalty on LA-71-W.McClendon, Illegal Formation, declined.Play 1662
(6:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 4 for 16 yards (22-B.Jones) [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on LA-17-D.Adams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play. Penalty on LA-71-W.McClendon, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q204:38(4:38) 12-R.Harvey left end to DEN 31 for 7 yards (90-T.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 24 - No Play.Play 1800
(4:38) 12-R.Harvey left end to DEN 31 for 7 yards (90-T.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 24 - No Play.
Q309:17(9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to LA 11 for 9 yards (55-B.Fiske). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Face Mask, 6 yards, enforced at LA 11.Play 2804
(9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to LA 11 for 9 yards (55-B.Fiske). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Face Mask, 6 yards, enforced at LA 11.
Q308:22(8:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 5 for no gain (37-Q.Lake). DEN-12-R.Harvey was injured during the play.Play 2862
(8:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 5 for no gain (37-Q.Lake). DEN-12-R.Harvey was injured during the play.
Q306:33(6:33) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play.Play 3006
(6:33) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play.
Q306:28(6:28) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 27 for 3 yards (52-J.Elliss). ** Injury Update: LA-69-K.Dotson has returned to the game.Play 3040
(6:28) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 27 for 3 yards (52-J.Elliss). ** Injury Update: LA-69-K.Dotson has returned to the game.
Q305:33(5:33) 42-E.Evans punts 60 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 15. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 9 for -6 yards (44-G.Stuard). PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play.Play 3118
(5:33) 42-E.Evans punts 60 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 15. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 9 for -6 yards (44-G.Stuard). PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play.
Q305:22(5:22) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to DEN 47, impetus ends at DEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis pushed ob at DEN 48 for 1 yard (56-S.Dolac).Play 3167
(5:22) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to DEN 47, impetus ends at DEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis pushed ob at DEN 48 for 1 yard (56-S.Dolac).
Q304:38(4:38) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 42 for 5 yards (48-O.Speights). FUMBLES (48-O.Speights), recovered by DEN-13-P.Bryant at LA 41. 13-P.Bryant to LA 34 for 7 yards (22-T.McDuffie).Play 3220
(4:38) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 42 for 5 yards (48-O.Speights). FUMBLES (48-O.Speights), recovered by DEN-13-P.Bryant at LA 41. 13-P.Bryant to LA 34 for 7 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q414:00(14:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at LA 44 for 27 yards. Penalty on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.Play 3632
(14:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at LA 44 for 27 yards. Penalty on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q413:07(13:07) (Shotgun) ** Injury Update: DEN-12-R.Harvey has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play.Play 3695
(13:07) (Shotgun) ** Injury Update: DEN-12-R.Harvey has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play.
Q413:07(13:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace (91-K.Turner) at LA 37. 30-J.Wallace to DEN 37 for 26 yards (60-L.Wattenberg).Play 3719
(13:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace (91-K.Turner) at LA 37. 30-J.Wallace to DEN 37 for 26 yards (60-L.Wattenberg).
Q405:01(5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Play 4110
(5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:33(3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play.Play 4334
(3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play.
Q401:15(1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play.Play 4483
(1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play.
Q401:01(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play.Play 4591
(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play.
Q400:51(:51) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at LA 1 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie).Play 4657
(:51) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at LA 1 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie).
Q400:473-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.Play 4771
3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
Q400:26(:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at DEN 34 for 14 yards.Play 4904
(:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at DEN 34 for 14 yards.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:18Penalty · DEN(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44 - No Play.+
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN
0.75 pointsSupported
Actual state
Qtr
2
Down
1
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
LA
Ydstogo
15
Away team
LA
Home team
DEN
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
20
Receive 2h ko
0
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining
2216
Half seconds remaining
416
Quarter seconds remaining
416
Defteam timeouts remaining
2
Posteam timeouts remaining
1
Supported alternative
Qtr
2
Down
1
Roof
outdoors
Season
2026
Posteam
LA
Ydstogo
10
Away team
LA
Home team
DEN
Spread line
0
Yardline 100
15
Receive 2h ko
0
Score differential
10
Game seconds remaining
2216
Half seconds remaining
416
Quarter seconds remaining
416
Defteam timeouts remaining
2
Posteam timeouts remaining
1
Assumptions
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called.
Q413:07Penalty · DEN(13:07) (Shotgun) ** Injury Update: DEN-12-R.Harvey has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q201:18Fourth down · DEN(1:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith to LA 24 for 16 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 92-D.Tillman).+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:50Fourth down · LA(14:50) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to DEN 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 29 for 10 yards (56-S.Dolac; 49-J.Cardona).+
Q107:30Fourth down · LA(7:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 30 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)+
Q213:43Penalty · LA(13:43) 24-B.Corum right tackle to DEN 5 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LA-73-S.Avila, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 8 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:33Penalty · LA(6:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 4 for 16 yards (22-B.Jones) [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on LA-17-D.Adams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play. Penalty on LA-71-W.McClendon, Illegal Formation, declined.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:38Penalty · DEN(4:38) 12-R.Harvey left end to DEN 31 for 7 yards (90-T.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 24 - No Play.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q309:17Penalty · DEN(9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to LA 11 for 9 yards (55-B.Fiske). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Face Mask, 6 yards, enforced at LA 11.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:33Penalty · LA(6:33) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:33Penalty · LA(5:33) 42-E.Evans punts 60 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 15. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 9 for -6 yards (44-G.Stuard). PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play.+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:22Fourth down · LA(5:22) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to DEN 47, impetus ends at DEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis pushed ob at DEN 48 for 1 yard (56-S.Dolac).+
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:38Fumble · DEN(4:38) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 42 for 5 yards (48-O.Speights). FUMBLES (48-O.Speights), recovered by DEN-13-P.Bryant at LA 41. 13-P.Bryant to LA 34 for 7 yards (22-T.McDuffie).+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:00Fourth down · DEN(14:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at LA 44 for 27 yards. Penalty on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.+
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q403:33Penalty · DEN(3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:15Penalty · DEN(1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:01Penalty · DEN(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play.+
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:47Penalty · DEN3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.+
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.
Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty.
Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately.
Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval.