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Hmm 3 / 5 Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? 2 defensive penalties kept one DEN drive alive.
2 defensive penalties extended one DEN drive on third or fourth down. Penalty patterns were this unusual in 44 of 779 comparison games. How this rating was calculated Hmm (3/5): 2 defensive penalties kept one DEN drive alive.
Result versus box score Fair · 1/5 Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: LA by 10.1; actual result: DEN by 4.
The 14.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 82 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Adjusted rarity: 30.48%
Penalty pattern Debatable · 2/5 DEN minus LA penalty-count difference: -8 versus 0.5 expected.
The strongest of four related penalty checks is counted once; 44 of 779 earlier comparison games were at least as unusual.
Adjusted rarity: 17.31%
Result versus spread Fair · 1/5 Recorded spread: DEN by 1.5; actual result: DEN by 4. The difference was 2.5 points.
6,108 of 7,276 prior games were at least this far from their recorded spread.
Adjusted rarity: 100%
Penalties extending one drive Hmm · 3/5 2 defensive penalties gave DEN first downs on third or fourth down during one drive.
The highest eligible tier sets the rating; signals are not added. The RIGGED? combination is checked separately.
The winner has no qualifying three-penalty sequence on one drive.
Rating thresholds Debatable · 2/5: adjusted rarity at or below 20%.Hmm · 3/5: adjusted rarity at or below 10%.Sus · 4/5: adjusted rarity at or below 3%.Adjusted rarity = min(1, 3 × (at least as unusual + 1) / (comparison games + 1)). The factor of three accounts for outcome, penalty and spread comparisons, even when a spread is unavailable.
Adjusted rarity above 20% supplies Fair; at most 20% supplies Debatable, at most 10% Hmm, and at most 3% Sus. Spread alone is capped at Hmm.
Two qualifying penalties on one drive supply Hmm; three or more supply Sus. This drive rule has no statistical tail probability.
RIGGED? requires a winner-favoring outcome at adjusted rarity of 3% or less and three or more defensive penalties extending that same winner’s drive.
Referee history can adjust the penalty expectation. Team win/loss/tie records under that referee are context only and add no rating points.
These thresholds are exploratory rating rules. Adjusted rarity is not a probability of manipulation.
Full methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin Denver Broncos by 1.5
Final margin Denver Broncos by 4
Difference 2.5 points
Denver Broncos covered the spread.
6,108 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (83.9%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score LA by 10.1
Actual final margin DEN by 4
HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
Denver Broncos chance to win during the game 172 preplay estimates across 202 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 30 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
DEN Observed ruling consequence 5.02 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence 1.38 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 9 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q4 · 01:01 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4591 (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LA awarded DEN a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. 2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on DEN drive 21; review the sequence together. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Late third or fourth down incompletion inside the opponent 25 in a one score game. Estimated chance to win moved 10.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:15 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4483 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on LA awarded DEN a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. 2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on DEN drive 21; review the sequence together. Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 9.4 percentage points across this play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 202 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 202 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 3-W.Lutz kicks 62 yards from DEN 35 to LA 3. 33-D.Connors to LA 26 for 23 yards (92-D.Tillman). Play 39 3-W.Lutz kicks 62 yards from DEN 35 to LA 3. 33-D.Connors to LA 26 for 23 yards (92-D.Tillman).
Q114:55 (14:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen pushed ob at LA 39 for 13 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 62 (14:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen pushed ob at LA 39 for 13 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q114:26 (14:26) 23-K.Williams left end to LA 42 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 92 (14:26) 23-K.Williams left end to LA 42 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q113:49 (13:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Allen to LA 48 for 6 yards (15-N.Bonitto; 2-P.Surtain). CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 109 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q211:03 Penalty · LA (11:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN -8.05 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2459
Half seconds remaining 659
Quarter seconds remaining 659
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2 ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Updated source data This report uses the provider’s cleaned postgame data. Later corrections can still update the report.
Data limitations and calculation notes (3) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. Data sources football-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 30be4e6da445d997a452da4c59e600bd19e2779368e4dbd4057d1c07bfdc6317sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5490c60a6d2bf2afc01c7dc0a13dd1f75bdec470381e683a9f2ac52a02db8acbnflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 2, 2026, 5:36 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 32f2748b9e482cdab33f11c3d75438872ae98351665956028d25581f011ce9e2This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
82 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 44 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Bill Vinovich Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football · Also recorded by nflverse.
In 81 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 11 accepted penalties for 87.7 yards across both teams.
Referee comparison details Home teams: 5.2 / 43.5 yd per game. Away teams: 5.7 / 44.2 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Bill Vinovich; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
The schedule supplies this assignment. A matching full-crew record was not available in the frozen officials release.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Denver Broncos · Drive extending penalties DEN received 2 first downs from LA penalties on third or fourth down during drive 21. Review these plays together; this does not establish that any call was wrong.
Denver Broncos · Sacks allowed Allowed 1 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Denver Broncos · Opponent penalties Opponent LA was charged 13 penalties for 91 yards.
Denver Broncos · Non offensive touchdowns Recorded 1 defensive or special-teams touchdowns.
Los Angeles Rams · Sacks allowed Allowed 4 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Los Angeles Rams · Opponent penalties Opponent DEN was charged 5 penalties for 38 yards.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero. Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified. Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs. Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression.
First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 172 model estimates across 202 recorded game entries.
30 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (202 entries) Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1
A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence -8.05 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence -3.19 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence 1.75 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence 0.75 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Multiple or unparsed penalties
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Penalty declined
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence -1.6 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Ruling expected points consequence -0.57 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
DEN Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LA Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44353/0.40494/0.45051 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.48635/ NA/0.51171 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49017/0.48434/0.46008 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0.26 percentage points · experimental HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Kickoff assumption sensitive
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37823/0.37560/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70156/0.72545/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24098/ NA/0.24388 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77989/0.80709/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13661/ NA/0.14946 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 0.58 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11158/ NA/0.10582 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85079/ NA/0.86637 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36359/ NA/0.43544 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LA Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45352/0.53034/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
DEN Fourth down decision cost 6.9 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.34865/ NA/0.27962 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
DEN Fumble recoveries above expectation 0.64 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 88th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
LA Fumble recoveries above expectation -0.64 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON 88th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 202 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
DEN Field goal points above expectation -2.59 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LA Field goal points above expectation 1.28 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 190 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
DEN Extra point points above expectation 0.04 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
LA Extra point points above expectation 0.08 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 45th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 217 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
DEN Charted drops 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LA Charted drops 3 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Interception worthy throws 4 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LA Interception worthy throws 3 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LA QB attributed sacks 0 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
4 of 4 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Catchable targets 20 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LA Catchable targets 34 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Contested targets 8 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LA Contested targets 13 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
DEN Receiver created receptions 1 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
36 of 36 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
LA Receiver created receptions 3 count HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
53 of 53 eligible opportunities modeled.
FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
LA Presnap called penalties above expectation 1.13 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
88 of 88 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 3 across 88 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Offensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.47 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
88 of 88 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 88 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.48 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
40 of 40 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 40 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LA Pass interference called penalties above expectation 1.46 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
40 of 40 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 40 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 2. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.74 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
70 of 70 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 70 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.2 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
70 of 70 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 70 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Defensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.7 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
DEN Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.29 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
60 of 60 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 60 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Q4 · 00:26 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 4904 (:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at DEN 34 for 14 yards.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 3.5 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:51 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4657 (:51) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at LA 1 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie).
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 1.9 percentage points across this play.
Show 5 more plays Q2 · 11:03 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 1371 (11:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on DEN awarded LA a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.8 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:02 Recorded game event
Los Angeles Rams · Play 5054 (:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 14 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.2 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 03:33 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4334 (3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 4.0 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:47 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4771 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.1 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 00:48 Recorded game event
Denver Broncos · Play 4711 (:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on LA-91-K.Turner, Encroachment, 0 yards, enforced at LA 1 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.0 percentage points across this play.
Play 114
(13:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Allen to LA 48 for 6 yards (15-N.Bonitto; 2-P.Surtain).
Q113:10 (13:10) 23-K.Williams right end to DEN 48 for 4 yards (2-P.Surtain). Play 139 (13:10) 23-K.Williams right end to DEN 48 for 4 yards (2-P.Surtain).
Q112:29 (12:29) 23-K.Williams right guard to DEN 43 for 5 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 9-T.Hufanga). Play 161 (12:29) 23-K.Williams right guard to DEN 43 for 5 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 9-T.Hufanga).
Q111:50 (11:50) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 89-T.Higbee. Play 183 (11:50) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 89-T.Higbee.
Q111:44 (11:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DEN 47 for -4 yards (15-N.Bonitto). Play 206 (11:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DEN 47 for -4 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
Q111:05 (11:05) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to DEN 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 31-K.Abrams-Draine. Play 226 (11:05) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to DEN 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 31-K.Abrams-Draine.
Q110:58 (10:58) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 12 for -2 yards (35-J.Watson). Play 253 (10:58) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 12 for -2 yards (35-J.Watson).
Q110:23 (10:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 18 for 6 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 275 (10:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 18 for 6 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q109:43 (9:43) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right. Play 300 (9:43) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right.
Q109:36 (9:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 323 (9:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q109:27 (9:27) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 41 for 22 yards (2-P.Surtain). Play 349 (9:27) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 41 for 22 yards (2-P.Surtain).
Q108:50 (8:50) 24-B.Corum up the middle to DEN 34 for 7 yards (51-Q.Robinson). Play 374 (8:50) 24-B.Corum up the middle to DEN 34 for 7 yards (51-Q.Robinson).
Q108:14 (8:14) 24-B.Corum right guard to DEN 35 for -1 yards (97-M.Roach). Play 396 (8:14) 24-B.Corum right guard to DEN 35 for -1 yards (97-M.Roach).
Q107:35 (7:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 18-T.Ferguson (9-T.Hufanga). LA-18-T.Ferguson was injured during the play. Play 418 (7:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 18-T.Ferguson (9-T.Hufanga). LA-18-T.Ferguson was injured during the play.
Q107:30 (7:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 30 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) Play 441 (7:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 30 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q107:07 (7:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to DEN 17 for 13 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 466 (7:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to DEN 17 for 13 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q106:32 (6:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. Play 531 (6:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right.
Q106:27 (6:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at DEN 15 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 554 (6:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at DEN 15 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q105:49 (5:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right guard to DEN 5 for 10 yards (21-R.Moss; 99-Z.Allen). Play 587 (5:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right guard to DEN 5 for 10 yards (21-R.Moss; 99-Z.Allen).
Q105:05 (5:05) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Parkinson (22-B.Jones). Play 609 (5:05) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Parkinson (22-B.Jones).
Q105:00 Timeout #1 by LA at 05:00. Play 655 Timeout #1 by LA at 05:00.
Q105:00 (5:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 632 (5:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q104:55 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 676 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q104:55 92-H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35. Play 691 92-H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35.
Q104:55 (4:55) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle (35-J.Watson). Play 715 (4:55) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle (35-J.Watson).
Q104:50 (4:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 10 yards (37-Q.Lake). Play 738 (4:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 10 yards (37-Q.Lake).
Q104:11 (4:11) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 49 for 4 yards (10-J.Stewart; 53-N.Landman). Play 763 (4:11) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 49 for 4 yards (10-J.Stewart; 53-N.Landman).
Q103:39 (3:39) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 46 for 5 yards (0-B.Young; 30-J.Wallace). Play 785 (3:39) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 46 for 5 yards (0-B.Young; 30-J.Wallace).
Q102:57 (2:57) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie right guard to LA 44 for 2 yards (48-O.Speights; 35-J.Watson). Play 815 (2:57) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie right guard to LA 44 for 2 yards (48-O.Speights; 35-J.Watson).
Q102:18 (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44 - No Play. Play 842 (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44 - No Play.
Q102:13 (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton (37-Q.Lake). Play 876 (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton (37-Q.Lake).
Q102:04 (2:04) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to LA 25 for 4 yards (22-T.McDuffie; 2-J.McCollough). Play 899 (2:04) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey up the middle to LA 25 for 4 yards (22-T.McDuffie; 2-J.McCollough).
Q101:27 (1:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (35-J.Watson). Play 926 (1:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (35-J.Watson).
Q101:23 (1:23) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 949 (1:23) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q101:19 (1:19) 23-K.Williams up the middle to DEN 37 for 30 yards (21-R.Moss). ** Injury Update: LA-18-T.Ferguson has returned to the game. Play 970 (1:19) 23-K.Williams up the middle to DEN 37 for 30 yards (21-R.Moss). ** Injury Update: LA-18-T.Ferguson has returned to the game.
Q100:37 (:37) 23-K.Williams left guard to DEN 34 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). ** Injury Update: LA-84-C.Parkinson has returned to the game. Play 999 (:37) 23-K.Williams left guard to DEN 34 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). ** Injury Update: LA-84-C.Parkinson has returned to the game.
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 1021 Q215:00 (15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams ran ob at DEN 16 for 18 yards. Play 1041 (15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams ran ob at DEN 16 for 18 yards.
Q214:26 (14:26) 23-K.Williams up the middle to DEN 8 for 8 yards (2-P.Surtain). Play 1074 (14:26) 23-K.Williams up the middle to DEN 8 for 8 yards (2-P.Surtain).
Q213:46 (13:46) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right [22-B.Jones]. Play 1104 (13:46) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right [22-B.Jones].
Q213:43 (13:43) 24-B.Corum right tackle to DEN 5 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LA-73-S.Avila, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 8 - No Play. Play 1127 (13:43) 24-B.Corum right tackle to DEN 5 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LA-73-S.Avila, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 8 - No Play.
Q213:24 (13:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 4-K.Mumpfield. Play 1160 (13:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 4-K.Mumpfield.
Q213:21 (13:21) 92-H.Mevis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 1183 (13:21) 92-H.Mevis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q213:17 92-H.Mevis kicks 62 yards from LA 35 to DEN 3. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 31 for 28 yards (37-Q.Lake; 94-D.Johnson). Play 1203 92-H.Mevis kicks 62 yards from LA 35 to DEN 3. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 31 for 28 yards (37-Q.Lake; 94-D.Johnson).
Q213:12 (13:12) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to DEN 34 for 3 yards (57-T.Hamilton). Play 1233 (13:12) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to DEN 34 for 3 yards (57-T.Hamilton).
Q212:36 (12:36) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 38 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 1255 (12:36) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 38 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q211:55 (11:55) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle (22-T.McDuffie). Play 1280 (11:55) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle (22-T.McDuffie).
Q211:51 (11:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LA 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. Play 1303 (11:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LA 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
Q211:45 (11:45) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 24-B.Corum. Play 1323 (11:45) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 24-B.Corum.
Q211:40 (11:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to LA 24 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 1346 (11:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to LA 24 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q211:03 (11:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play. Play 1371 (11:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 24 - No Play.
Q210:59 (10:59) 24-B.Corum right end to LA 39 for 2 yards (97-M.Roach). Play 1405 (10:59) 24-B.Corum right end to LA 39 for 2 yards (97-M.Roach).
Q210:21 (10:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 24-B.Corum to LA 40 for 1 yard (40-J.Strnad). Play 1427 (10:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 24-B.Corum to LA 40 for 1 yard (40-J.Strnad).
Q209:36 (9:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 18-T.Ferguson to LA 49 for 9 yards (52-J.Elliss) [99-Z.Allen]. Play 1452 (9:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 18-T.Ferguson to LA 49 for 9 yards (52-J.Elliss) [99-Z.Allen].
Q209:05 (9:05) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 24-B.Corum to LA 48 for -1 yards (40-J.Strnad). Play 1477 (9:05) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 24-B.Corum to LA 48 for -1 yards (40-J.Strnad).
Q208:19 (8:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. Play 1502 (8:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield.
Q208:16 (8:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 4-K.Mumpfield ran ob at DEN 37 for 15 yards. Play 1525 (8:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 4-K.Mumpfield ran ob at DEN 37 for 15 yards.
Q207:41 Timeout #2 by LA at 07:41. Play 1567 Timeout #2 by LA at 07:41.
Q207:41 (7:41) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 89-T.Higbee. Play 1555 (7:41) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 89-T.Higbee.
Q207:36 (7:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 15 for 22 yards (2-P.Surtain) [99-Z.Allen]. Play 1585 (7:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 15 for 22 yards (2-P.Surtain) [99-Z.Allen].
Q206:56 (6:56) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 15 - No Play. Play 1615 (6:56) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 15 - No Play.
Q206:36 (6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 24-B.Corum (97-M.Roach). Play 1639 (6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 24-B.Corum (97-M.Roach).
Q206:33 (6:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 4 for 16 yards (22-B.Jones) [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on LA-17-D.Adams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play. Penalty on LA-71-W.McClendon, Illegal Formation, declined. Play 1662 (6:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 4 for 16 yards (22-B.Jones) [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on LA-17-D.Adams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play. Penalty on LA-71-W.McClendon, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q206:16 (6:16) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to DEN 26 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 1703 (6:16) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to DEN 26 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q205:35 (5:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to DEN 16 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton) [15-N.Bonitto]. Play 1725 (5:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to DEN 16 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton) [15-N.Bonitto].
Q204:46 (4:46) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 1750 (4:46) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q204:43 92-H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to DEN 0. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 24 for 24 yards (56-S.Dolac). Play 1770 92-H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to DEN 0. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 24 for 24 yards (56-S.Dolac).
Q204:38 (4:38) 12-R.Harvey left end to DEN 31 for 7 yards (90-T.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 24 - No Play. Play 1800 (4:38) 12-R.Harvey left end to DEN 31 for 7 yards (90-T.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 24 - No Play.
Q204:15 (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey ran ob at DEN 38 for 19 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 1833 (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey ran ob at DEN 38 for 19 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q203:47 (3:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left tackle to DEN 40 for 2 yards (55-B.Fiske). Play 1863 (3:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left tackle to DEN 40 for 2 yards (55-B.Fiske).
Q203:07 (3:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle. Play 1885 (3:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle.
Q203:04 (3:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at DEN 49 for 9 yards. LA-35-J.Watson was injured during the play. Play 1908 (3:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at DEN 49 for 9 yards. LA-35-J.Watson was injured during the play.
Q202:52 (2:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end to LA 47 for 4 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 1941 (2:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end to LA 47 for 4 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q202:16 (2:16) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 43 for 4 yards (91-K.Turner; 99-A.Donald). Play 1970 (2:16) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 43 for 4 yards (91-K.Turner; 99-A.Donald).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at 50 for -7 yards (48-O.Speights). Play 1992 (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at 50 for -7 yards (48-O.Speights).
Q201:18 (1:18) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DEN-48-M.Fraboni, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. Play 2019 (1:18) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DEN-48-M.Fraboni, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q201:18 (1:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith to LA 24 for 16 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 92-D.Tillman). Play 2047 (1:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith to LA 24 for 16 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 92-D.Tillman).
Q201:07 (1:07) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 31 for 7 yards (21-R.Moss; 49-A.Singleton). Play 2073 (1:07) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 31 for 7 yards (21-R.Moss; 49-A.Singleton).
Q200:51 (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at LA 41 for 10 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 2095 (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at LA 41 for 10 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q200:45 (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 46 for 13 yards (2-P.Surtain). Play 2125 (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 46 for 13 yards (2-P.Surtain).
Q200:40 (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams [49-A.Singleton]. Play 2155 (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams [49-A.Singleton].
Q200:34 (:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 46 - No Play. Play 2178 (:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 46 - No Play.
Q200:34 (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 37 for 14 yards. Play 2202 (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 37 for 14 yards.
Q200:30 (:30) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams right guard to DEN 32 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 2232 (:30) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams right guard to DEN 32 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q200:25 Timeout #3 by LA at 00:25. Play 2266 Timeout #3 by LA at 00:25.
Q200:25 (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle. Play 2254 (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle.
Q200:20 (:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to DEN 22 for 10 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 2284 (:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to DEN 22 for 10 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q200:04 (:04) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 2309 (:04) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q200:03 (:03) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 2332 (:03) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2352 Q315:00 92-H.Mevis kicks 64 yards from LA 35 to DEN 1. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 32 for 31 yards (44-G.Stuard; 34-T.Ingle). Play 2370 92-H.Mevis kicks 64 yards from LA 35 to DEN 1. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 32 for 31 yards (44-G.Stuard; 34-T.Ingle).
Q314:55 (14:55) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 38 for 6 yards (97-P.Ford). Play 2398 (14:55) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 38 for 6 yards (97-P.Ford).
Q314:19 (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle [55-B.Fiske]. Play 2422 (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle [55-B.Fiske].
Q314:12 (14:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram [99-A.Donald]. Play 2445 (14:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram [99-A.Donald].
Q314:08 (14:08) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to LA 0, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 10 for 10 yards (34-J.Skinner). Play 2468 (14:08) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to LA 0, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 10 for 10 yards (34-J.Skinner).
Q313:57 (13:57) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 13 for 3 yards (93-D.Jones; 97-M.Roach). Play 2504 (13:57) 24-B.Corum up the middle to LA 13 for 3 yards (93-D.Jones; 97-M.Roach).
Q313:14 (13:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee [97-M.Roach]. Play 2526 (13:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee [97-M.Roach].
Q313:09 (13:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. Play 2549 (13:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.
Q313:04 (13:04) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to DEN 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis ran ob at LA 42 for 28 yards (42-E.Evans). Play 2572 (13:04) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to DEN 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis ran ob at LA 42 for 28 yards (42-E.Evans).
Q312:52 (12:52) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to LA 36 for 6 yards (57-T.Hamilton; 37-Q.Lake). Play 2603 (12:52) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to LA 36 for 6 yards (57-T.Hamilton; 37-Q.Lake).
Q312:20 (12:20) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to LA 34 for 2 yards (97-P.Ford; 94-D.Johnson). Play 2632 (12:20) 27-J.Dobbins left guard to LA 34 for 2 yards (97-P.Ford; 94-D.Johnson).
Q311:50 (11:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 31 for 3 yards (57-T.Hamilton; 48-O.Speights). Play 2654 (11:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 31 for 3 yards (57-T.Hamilton; 48-O.Speights).
Q311:14 (11:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 12-R.Harvey. Play 2676 (11:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 12-R.Harvey.
Q311:10 (11:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey pushed ob at LA 22 for 9 yards (47-W.Bailey). Play 2699 (11:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey pushed ob at LA 22 for 9 yards (47-W.Bailey).
Q310:37 (10:37) 10-B.Nix up the middle to LA 21 for 1 yard (91-K.Turner). Play 2729 (10:37) 10-B.Nix up the middle to LA 21 for 1 yard (91-K.Turner).
Q309:56 (9:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle. Play 2751 (9:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle.
Q309:53 (9:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at LA 20 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie; 1-E.Forbes). Play 2774 (9:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at LA 20 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie; 1-E.Forbes).
Q309:17 (9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to LA 11 for 9 yards (55-B.Fiske). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Face Mask, 6 yards, enforced at LA 11. Play 2804 (9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to LA 11 for 9 yards (55-B.Fiske). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Face Mask, 6 yards, enforced at LA 11.
Q308:59 (8:59) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end to LA 5 for no gain (48-O.Speights; 10-J.Stewart). Play 2840 (8:59) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end to LA 5 for no gain (48-O.Speights; 10-J.Stewart).
Q308:22 (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 5 for no gain (37-Q.Lake). DEN-12-R.Harvey was injured during the play. Play 2862 (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 5 for no gain (37-Q.Lake). DEN-12-R.Harvey was injured during the play.
Q307:50 (7:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2890 (7:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q307:44 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-B.Nix pass to 17-J.Waddle is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 2923 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-B.Nix pass to 17-J.Waddle is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q307:44 3-W.Lutz kicks 60 yards from DEN 35 to LA 5. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 16 yards (51-Q.Robinson). Play 2936 3-W.Lutz kicks 60 yards from DEN 35 to LA 5. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 16 yards (51-Q.Robinson).
Q307:41 (7:41) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 30 for 9 yards (2-P.Surtain; 22-B.Jones). Play 2959 (7:41) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 30 for 9 yards (2-P.Surtain; 22-B.Jones).
Q307:01 (7:01) 23-K.Williams right end to LA 34 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss). LA-69-K.Dotson was injured during the play. Play 2981 (7:01) 23-K.Williams right end to LA 34 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss). LA-69-K.Dotson was injured during the play.
Q306:33 (6:33) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play. Play 3006 (6:33) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play.
Q306:28 (6:28) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 27 for 3 yards (52-J.Elliss). ** Injury Update: LA-69-K.Dotson has returned to the game. Play 3040 (6:28) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 27 for 3 yards (52-J.Elliss). ** Injury Update: LA-69-K.Dotson has returned to the game.
Q306:04 (6:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams [99-Z.Allen]. Play 3062 (6:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams [99-Z.Allen].
Q305:59 (5:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at LA 25 for -2 yards (23-J.Barron). Play 3088 (5:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at LA 25 for -2 yards (23-J.Barron).
Q305:33 (5:33) 42-E.Evans punts 60 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 15. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 9 for -6 yards (44-G.Stuard). PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play. Play 3118 (5:33) 42-E.Evans punts 60 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 15. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 9 for -6 yards (44-G.Stuard). PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play.
Q305:22 (5:22) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to DEN 47, impetus ends at DEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis pushed ob at DEN 48 for 1 yard (56-S.Dolac). Play 3167 (5:22) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to DEN 47, impetus ends at DEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis pushed ob at DEN 48 for 1 yard (56-S.Dolac).
Q305:11 (5:11) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 47 for 5 yards (91-K.Turner; 97-P.Ford). Play 3198 (5:11) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 47 for 5 yards (91-K.Turner; 97-P.Ford).
Q304:38 (4:38) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 42 for 5 yards (48-O.Speights). FUMBLES (48-O.Speights), recovered by DEN-13-P.Bryant at LA 41. 13-P.Bryant to LA 34 for 7 yards (22-T.McDuffie). Play 3220 (4:38) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 42 for 5 yards (48-O.Speights). FUMBLES (48-O.Speights), recovered by DEN-13-P.Bryant at LA 41. 13-P.Bryant to LA 34 for 7 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q303:52 (3:52) 17-J.Waddle left end to LA 20 for 14 yards (91-K.Turner). Play 3263 (3:52) 17-J.Waddle left end to LA 20 for 14 yards (91-K.Turner).
Q303:12 (3:12) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle. Play 3285 (3:12) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle.
Q303:08 (3:08) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie to LA 8 for 12 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 3308 (3:08) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie to LA 8 for 12 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q302:24 (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. Play 3333 (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.
Q302:19 (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3356 (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q302:15 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-B.Nix pass to 13-P.Bryant is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Play 3382 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-B.Nix pass to 13-P.Bryant is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q302:15 3-W.Lutz kicks 64 yards from DEN 35 to LA 1. 19-X.Smith to LA 30 for 29 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine). Play 3395 3-W.Lutz kicks 64 yards from DEN 35 to LA 1. 19-X.Smith to LA 30 for 29 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
Q302:09 (2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to LA 36 for 6 yards (2-P.Surtain). Play 3425 (2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to LA 36 for 6 yards (2-P.Surtain).
Q301:32 (1:32) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 87-D.Allen (40-J.Strnad) [92-D.Tillman]. Play 3450 (1:32) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 87-D.Allen (40-J.Strnad) [92-D.Tillman].
Q301:26 (1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee to LA 41 for 5 yards (51-Q.Robinson) [92-D.Tillman]. Play 3473 (1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee to LA 41 for 5 yards (51-Q.Robinson) [92-D.Tillman].
Q300:46 (:46) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 32 for -9 yards (99-Z.Allen). Play 3498 (:46) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 32 for -9 yards (99-Z.Allen).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3518 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. Play 3538 (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right.
Q414:56 (14:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 4-K.Mumpfield [99-Z.Allen]. Play 3561 (14:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 4-K.Mumpfield [99-Z.Allen].
Q414:50 (14:50) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to DEN 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 29 for 10 yards (56-S.Dolac; 49-J.Cardona). Play 3584 (14:50) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to DEN 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 29 for 10 yards (56-S.Dolac; 49-J.Cardona).
Q414:39 (14:39) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 29 for no gain (91-K.Turner). Play 3610 (14:39) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 29 for no gain (91-K.Turner).
Q414:00 (14:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at LA 44 for 27 yards. Penalty on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Play 3632 (14:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at LA 44 for 27 yards. Penalty on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q413:47 (13:47) 27-J.Dobbins right end to LA 43 for 1 yard (0-B.Young; 1-E.Forbes). Play 3673 (13:47) 27-J.Dobbins right end to LA 43 for 1 yard (0-B.Young; 1-E.Forbes).
Q413:07 (13:07) (Shotgun) ** Injury Update: DEN-12-R.Harvey has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play. Play 3695 (13:07) (Shotgun) ** Injury Update: DEN-12-R.Harvey has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play.
Q413:07 (13:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace (91-K.Turner) at LA 37. 30-J.Wallace to DEN 37 for 26 yards (60-L.Wattenberg). Play 3719 (13:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace (91-K.Turner) at LA 37. 30-J.Wallace to DEN 37 for 26 yards (60-L.Wattenberg).
Q412:58 (12:58) 23-K.Williams left guard to DEN 39 for -2 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 3749 (12:58) 23-K.Williams left guard to DEN 39 for -2 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q412:14 (12:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 28 for 11 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 3780 (12:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 28 for 11 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q411:29 (11:29) 9-M.Stafford right end to DEN 25 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton). Play 3805 (11:29) 9-M.Stafford right end to DEN 25 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q410:44 (10:44) 23-K.Williams right end to DEN 20 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 3827 (10:44) 23-K.Williams right end to DEN 20 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q410:06 (10:06) 23-K.Williams left end to DEN 20 for no gain (9-T.Hufanga; 97-M.Roach). Play 3849 (10:06) 23-K.Williams left end to DEN 20 for no gain (9-T.Hufanga; 97-M.Roach).
Q409:22 (9:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DEN 30 for -10 yards (9-T.Hufanga). Play 3871 (9:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DEN 30 for -10 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
Q408:44 (8:44) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 3891 (8:44) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q408:40 92-H.Mevis kicks 59 yards from LA 35 to DEN 6. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 30 for 24 yards (30-J.Wallace). Play 3911 92-H.Mevis kicks 59 yards from LA 35 to DEN 6. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 30 for 24 yards (30-J.Wallace).
Q408:34 (8:34) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 36 for 6 yards (53-N.Landman). Play 3941 (8:34) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 36 for 6 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q407:56 (7:56) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 38 for 2 yards (0-B.Young; 90-T.Davis). Play 3965 (7:56) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to DEN 38 for 2 yards (0-B.Young; 90-T.Davis).
Q407:13 (7:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (30-J.Wallace). Play 3987 (7:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (30-J.Wallace).
Q407:10 (7:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to LA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. Play 4010 (7:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to LA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q407:03 (7:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 42 for 49 yards (9-T.Hufanga). Play 4029 (7:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 42 for 49 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
Q406:24 (6:24) 24-B.Corum right end to DEN 42 for no gain (49-A.Singleton; 52-J.Elliss). Play 4066 (6:24) 24-B.Corum right end to DEN 42 for no gain (49-A.Singleton; 52-J.Elliss).
Q405:43 (5:43) 24-B.Corum left guard to DEN 38 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss; 49-A.Singleton). Play 4088 (5:43) 24-B.Corum left guard to DEN 38 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss; 49-A.Singleton).
Q405:01 (5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4110 (5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q404:49 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Play 4138 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q404:49 3-W.Lutz kicks 61 yards from DEN 35 to LA 4. 19-X.Smith to LA 23 for 19 yards (26-D.Key). Play 4153 3-W.Lutz kicks 61 yards from DEN 35 to LA 4. 19-X.Smith to LA 23 for 19 yards (26-D.Key).
Q404:43 (4:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 22 for -1 yards (96-E.Uwazurike). Play 4176 (4:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 22 for -1 yards (96-E.Uwazurike).
Q404:16 (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield to LA 43 for 21 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 4196 (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield to LA 43 for 21 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q404:08 (4:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 4-K.Mumpfield to DEN 48 for 9 yards (21-R.Moss). Play 4221 (4:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 4-K.Mumpfield to DEN 48 for 9 yards (21-R.Moss).
Q403:46 (3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4246 (3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q403:38 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. Play 4272 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q403:38 92-H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35. Play 4287 92-H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DEN 35.
Q403:38 (3:38) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 27-J.Dobbins (97-P.Ford). Play 4311 (3:38) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 27-J.Dobbins (97-P.Ford).
Q403:33 (3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play. Play 4334 (3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play.
Q403:26 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (3-K.Curl). Play 4372 (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (3-K.Curl).
Q402:35 (2:35) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin to LA 15 for 21 yards (22-T.McDuffie). Play 4397 (2:35) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin to LA 15 for 21 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q402:00 (2:00) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 13 for 2 yards (97-P.Ford). Play 4422 (2:00) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 13 for 2 yards (97-P.Ford).
Q401:22 (1:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 11 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman; 2-J.McCollough). Play 4453 (1:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 11 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman; 2-J.McCollough).
Q401:15 Timeout #1 by LA at 01:15. Play 4495 Timeout #1 by LA at 01:15.
Q401:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play. Play 4483 (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play.
Q401:09 (1:09) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to LA 5 for 2 yards (37-Q.Lake; 0-B.Young). Play 4524 (1:09) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to LA 5 for 2 yards (37-Q.Lake; 0-B.Young).
Q401:05 Timeout #2 by LA at 01:05. Play 4558 Timeout #2 by LA at 01:05.
Q401:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. Play 4546 (1:05) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.
Q401:01 Timeout #1 by DEN at 01:01. Play 4603 Timeout #1 by DEN at 01:01.
Q401:01 (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play. Play 4591 (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play.
Q400:56 (:56) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 45-N.Adkins. Play 4632 (:56) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 45-N.Adkins.
Q400:51 (:51) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at LA 1 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie). Play 4657 (:51) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix right end ran ob at LA 1 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie).
Q400:48 (:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on LA-91-K.Turner, Encroachment, 0 yards, enforced at LA 1 - No Play. Play 4711 (:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on LA-91-K.Turner, Encroachment, 0 yards, enforced at LA 1 - No Play.
Q400:48 (:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4746 (:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q400:47 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs. Play 4771 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
Q400:47 3-W.Lutz kicks 53 yards from DEN 40 to LA 7. 19-X.Smith to LA 33 for 26 yards (46-A.Prentice; 55-J.Turner). Play 4786 3-W.Lutz kicks 53 yards from DEN 40 to LA 7. 19-X.Smith to LA 33 for 26 yards (46-A.Prentice; 55-J.Turner).
Q400:42 (:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 4-K.Mumpfield (21-R.Moss). Play 4821 (:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 4-K.Mumpfield (21-R.Moss).
Q400:37 (:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. Play 4844 (:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.
Q400:32 (:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 48 for 19 yards (22-B.Jones). Play 4879 (:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 48 for 19 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q400:26 Timeout #3 by LA at 00:26. Play 4916 Timeout #3 by LA at 00:26.
Q400:26 (:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at DEN 34 for 14 yards. Play 4904 (:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at DEN 34 for 14 yards.
Q400:21 (:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams. Play 4934 (:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
Q400:16 (:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 14 for 20 yards (26-D.Key). Play 4997 (:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 14 for 20 yards (26-D.Key).
Q400:03 (:03) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock. Play 5022 (:03) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q400:02 Timeout #2 by DEN at 00:02. Play 5066 Timeout #2 by DEN at 00:02.
Q400:02 (:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 14 - No Play. Play 5054 (:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 14 - No Play.
Q400:02 (:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback. Play 5085 (:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback.
Game seconds remaining 2459
Half seconds remaining 659
Quarter seconds remaining 659
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN -3.19 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 63
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2459
Half seconds remaining 659
Quarter seconds remaining 659
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 7
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 76
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2459
Half seconds remaining 659
Quarter seconds remaining 659
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q407:10 Fourth down · DEN (7:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to LA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 6.9 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 2
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.0443005975143222
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.8805555555555555
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 430
Half seconds remaining 430
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 430
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3486480977438108 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.34865/ NA/0.27962 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q102:18 Penalty · DEN (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 44 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN 5.02 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2833
Half seconds remaining 1033
Quarter seconds remaining 133
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2833
Half seconds remaining 1033
Quarter seconds remaining 133
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN 1.38 points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 29
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2833
Half seconds remaining 1033
Quarter seconds remaining 133
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Qtr 1
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 44
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -7
Game seconds remaining 2833
Half seconds remaining 1033
Quarter seconds remaining 133
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q206:56 Penalty · LA (6:56) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 15 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN 1.75 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2216
Half seconds remaining 416
Quarter seconds remaining 416
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2216
Half seconds remaining 416
Quarter seconds remaining 416
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN 0.75 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2216
Half seconds remaining 416
Quarter seconds remaining 416
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 10
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 15
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 10
Game seconds remaining 2216
Half seconds remaining 416
Quarter seconds remaining 416
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q413:07 Penalty · DEN (13:07) (Shotgun) ** Injury Update: DEN-12-R.Harvey has returned to the game. PENALTY on DEN-60-L.Wattenberg, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN -1.6 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 14
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 9
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence DEN -0.57 points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 14
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 4
Down 2
Roof outdoors
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 9
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 787
Half seconds remaining 787
Quarter seconds remaining 787
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q314:08 Fourth down · DEN (14:08) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to LA 0, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 10 for 10 yards (34-J.Skinner). + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0.58 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.1916062738101498
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.5144444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -16
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1748
Half seconds remaining 1748
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 848
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1115848766984046 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.11158/ NA/0.10582 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q111:05 Fourth down · LA (11:05) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to DEN 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 31-K.Abrams-Draine. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 9
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 1.155293006401316
Yardline 100 47
Elapsed share 0.06527777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3365
Half seconds remaining 1565
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 665
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4505107654503388 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44353/0.40494/0.45051 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:36 Fourth down · DEN (9:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 1.046514489106547
Yardline 100 82
Elapsed share 0.09
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 3276
Half seconds remaining 1476
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 576
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5117081839282217 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.48635/ NA/0.51171 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q213:21 Kick · LA (13:21) 92-H.Mevis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 12
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.4943384416127836
Yardline 100 18
Elapsed share 0.2775
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 7
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2601
Half seconds remaining 801
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 801
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.7254492621562616 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.70156/0.72545/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LA 1.28 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q211:51 Fourth down · DEN (11:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LA 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 3
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.4472959191448311
Yardline 100 62
Elapsed share 0.3025
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2511
Half seconds remaining 711
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 711
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.2438824672547889 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.24098/ NA/0.24388 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:46 Kick · LA (4:46) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 11
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.2789404072352721
Yardline 100 16
Elapsed share 0.4205555555555556
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 10
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 2086
Half seconds remaining 286
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 286
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 1 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.8070890934863723 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.77989/0.80709/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LA 1.28 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q201:18 Fourth down · DEN (1:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith to LA 24 for 16 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 92-D.Tillman). + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.2213814105934651
Yardline 100 55
Elapsed share 0.4783333333333333
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Score differential -13
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1878
Half seconds remaining 78
Away timeouts remaining 1
Home timeouts remaining 2
Quarter seconds remaining 78
Defteam timeouts remaining 1
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.1494565879530415 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.13661/ NA/0.14946 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 97 recorded events Q313:04 Fourth down · LA (13:04) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to DEN 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis ran ob at LA 42 for 28 yards (42-E.Evans). + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 7
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.1784541130103313
Yardline 100 87
Elapsed share 0.5322222222222223
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 16
Home opening kickoff 0
Game seconds remaining 1684
Half seconds remaining 1684
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 784
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.8663739643269865 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.85079/ NA/0.86637 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:50 Fourth down · LA (14:50) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to DEN 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 29 for 10 yards (56-S.Dolac; 49-J.Cardona). + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 19
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.07385541096630327
Yardline 100 68
Elapsed share 0.7527777777777778
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Q408:44 Kick · LA (8:44) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.04917781510528882
Yardline 100 30
Elapsed share 0.8544444444444445
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam LA
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential Q107:30 Fourth down · LA (7:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 30 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) + Fourth down decision cost LA 0 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LA
Ydstogo 4
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.9097959895689501
Yardline 100 35
Elapsed share 0.125
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 21
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -1.5
Original posteam LA
Q104:55 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q101:23 Kick · DEN (1:23) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Fourth down decision cost DEN 0.26 percentage points · experimental
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 0
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof outdoors
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam DEN
Ydstogo 6
Outdoors 1
Away team LA
Home team DEN
Away total 21
Home total 22.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 1.5
Spread time 0.6051295753992914
Yardline 100 25
Elapsed share 0.2269444444444444
Fg model roof 11
Posteam total 22.5
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread 1.5
Original posteam DEN
Home receive 2h ko 1
Q213:43 Penalty · LA (13:43) 24-B.Corum right tackle to DEN 5 for 3 yards (9-T.Hufanga; 22-B.Jones). PENALTY on LA-73-S.Avila, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 8 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:33 Penalty · LA (6:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 4 for 16 yards (22-B.Jones) [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on LA-17-D.Adams, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20 - No Play. Penalty on LA-71-W.McClendon, Illegal Formation, declined. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q204:38 Penalty · DEN (4:38) 12-R.Harvey left end to DEN 31 for 7 yards (90-T.Davis). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 24 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q201:18 Penalty · DEN (1:18) (Punt formation) PENALTY on DEN-48-M.Fraboni, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:34 Penalty · LA (:34) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 46 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:03 Kick · LA (:03) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Field goal points above expectation LA 1.28 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Q309:17 Penalty · DEN (9:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to LA 11 for 9 yards (55-B.Fiske). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Face Mask, 6 yards, enforced at LA 11. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q306:33 Penalty · LA (6:33) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 34 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:33 Penalty · LA (5:33) 42-E.Evans punts 60 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 15. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 9 for -6 yards (44-G.Stuard). PENALTY on LA-1-E.Forbes, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Fourth down decision cost LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q305:22 Fourth down · LA (5:22) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to DEN 47, impetus ends at DEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis pushed ob at DEN 48 for 1 yard (56-S.Dolac). + Fourth down decision cost LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q304:38 Fumble · DEN (4:38) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 42 for 5 yards (48-O.Speights). FUMBLES (48-O.Speights), recovered by DEN-13-P.Bryant at LA 41. 13-P.Bryant to LA 34 for 7 yards (22-T.McDuffie). + Fumble recoveries above expectation DEN 0.64 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LA -0.64 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q414:00 Fourth down · DEN (14:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at LA 44 for 27 yards. Penalty on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DEN 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q404:49 Kick · DEN 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. + Extra point points above expectation DEN 0.04 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q403:38 Kick · LA 92-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. + Extra point points above expectation LA 0.08 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q403:33 Penalty · DEN (3:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on DEN-72-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:15 Penalty · DEN (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:01 Penalty · DEN (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:48 Penalty · DEN (:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on LA-91-K.Turner, Encroachment, 0 yards, enforced at LA 1 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:47 Penalty · DEN 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs. + Observed ruling consequence DEN Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q400:02 Penalty · LA (:02) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 14 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LA Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q203:07 Execution · DEN (3:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle. + Charted drops DEN 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q213:24 Execution · LA (13:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 4-K.Mumpfield. + Charted drops LA 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q211:45 Execution · LA (11:45) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 24-B.Corum. + Charted drops LA 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q400:37 Execution · LA (:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams. + Charted drops LA 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q104:55 Execution · DEN (4:55) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle (35-J.Watson). + Interception worthy throws DEN 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q102:13 Execution · DEN (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton (37-Q.Lake). + Interception worthy throws DEN 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q314:19 Execution · DEN (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle [55-B.Fiske]. + Interception worthy throws DEN 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DEN 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q413:07 Execution · DEN (13:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace (91-K.Turner) at LA 37. 30-J.Wallace to DEN 37 for 26 yards (60-L.Wattenberg). + Interception worthy throws DEN 4 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q313:14 Execution · LA (13:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee [97-M.Roach]. + Interception worthy throws LA 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q405:01 Execution · LA (5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Interception worthy throws LA 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q400:02 Execution · LA (:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback. + Interception worthy throws LA 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q110:23 Execution · DEN (10:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to DEN 18 for 6 yards (37-Q.Lake). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q104:50 Execution · DEN (4:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 10 yards (37-Q.Lake). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q103:39 Execution · DEN (3:39) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 46 for 5 yards (0-B.Young; 30-J.Wallace). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q212:36 Execution · DEN (12:36) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 38 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q204:15 Execution · DEN (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey ran ob at DEN 38 for 19 yards (3-K.Curl). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q203:04 Execution · DEN (3:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at DEN 49 for 9 yards. LA-35-J.Watson was injured during the play. + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q311:10 Execution · DEN (11:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey pushed ob at LA 22 for 9 yards (47-W.Bailey). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q309:53 Execution · DEN (9:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at LA 20 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie; 1-E.Forbes). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q308:22 Execution · DEN (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 5 for no gain (37-Q.Lake). DEN-12-R.Harvey was injured during the play. + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q307:50 Execution · DEN (7:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q307:44 Execution · DEN TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-B.Nix pass to 17-J.Waddle is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DEN 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions DEN 1 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Q303:08 Execution · DEN (3:08) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 28-T.Badie to LA 8 for 12 yards (3-K.Curl). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q302:19 Execution · DEN (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q302:15 Execution · DEN TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-B.Nix pass to 13-P.Bryant is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Contested targets DEN 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q403:26 Execution · DEN (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (3-K.Curl). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q402:35 Execution · DEN (2:35) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin to LA 15 for 21 yards (22-T.McDuffie). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q401:22 Execution · DEN (1:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to LA 11 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman; 2-J.McCollough). + Catchable targets DEN 20 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q114:55 Execution · LA (14:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen pushed ob at LA 39 for 13 yards (49-A.Singleton). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q113:49 Execution · LA (13:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Allen to LA 48 for 6 yards (15-N.Bonitto; 2-P.Surtain). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q109:27 Execution · LA (9:27) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 41 for 22 yards (2-P.Surtain). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q107:35 Execution · LA (7:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 18-T.Ferguson (9-T.Hufanga). LA-18-T.Ferguson was injured during the play. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q107:07 Execution · LA (7:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to DEN 17 for 13 yards (40-J.Strnad). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q106:27 Execution · LA (6:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at DEN 15 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q105:00 Execution · LA (5:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q215:00 Execution · LA (15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams ran ob at DEN 16 for 18 yards. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions LA 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q211:40 Execution · LA (11:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to LA 24 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q210:21 Execution · LA (10:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 24-B.Corum to LA 40 for 1 yard (40-J.Strnad). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q209:36 Execution · LA (9:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 18-T.Ferguson to LA 49 for 9 yards (52-J.Elliss) [99-Z.Allen]. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q209:05 Execution · LA (9:05) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 24-B.Corum to LA 48 for -1 yards (40-J.Strnad). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q208:16 Execution · LA (8:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 4-K.Mumpfield ran ob at DEN 37 for 15 yards. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q207:36 Execution · LA (7:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DEN 15 for 22 yards (2-P.Surtain) [99-Z.Allen]. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q205:35 Execution · LA (5:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams to DEN 16 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton) [15-N.Bonitto]. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q200:51 Execution · LA (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at LA 41 for 10 yards (22-B.Jones). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q200:45 Execution · LA (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 46 for 13 yards (2-P.Surtain). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q200:34 Execution · LA (:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 37 for 14 yards. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q200:20 Execution · LA (:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to DEN 22 for 10 yards (22-B.Jones). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q305:59 Execution · LA (5:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at LA 25 for -2 yards (23-J.Barron). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q302:09 Execution · LA (2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to LA 36 for 6 yards (2-P.Surtain). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q301:26 Execution · LA (1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee to LA 41 for 5 yards (51-Q.Robinson) [92-D.Tillman]. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q412:14 Execution · LA (12:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 28 for 11 yards (22-B.Jones). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q407:03 Execution · LA (7:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DEN 42 for 49 yards (9-T.Hufanga). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q404:16 Execution · LA (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield to LA 43 for 21 yards (22-B.Jones). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q404:08 Execution · LA (4:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 4-K.Mumpfield to DEN 48 for 9 yards (21-R.Moss). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q403:46 Execution · LA (3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q400:32 Execution · LA (:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 48 for 19 yards (22-B.Jones). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q400:26 Execution · LA (:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at DEN 34 for 14 yards. + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions LA 3 count
Q400:16 Execution · LA (:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 14 for 20 yards (26-D.Key). + Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q101:27 Execution · DEN (1:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (35-J.Watson). + Contested targets DEN 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q211:55 Execution · DEN (11:55) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle (22-T.McDuffie). + Contested targets DEN 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q401:05 Execution · DEN (1:05) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. + Contested targets DEN 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q400:56 Execution · DEN (:56) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 45-N.Adkins. + Contested targets DEN 8 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Q111:50 Execution · LA (11:50) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 89-T.Higbee. + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q106:32 Execution · LA (6:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q105:05 Execution · LA (5:05) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Parkinson (22-B.Jones). + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q208:19 Execution · LA (8:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield. + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q207:41 Execution · LA (7:41) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 89-T.Higbee. + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q200:25 Execution · LA (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle. + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q301:32 Execution · LA (1:32) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 87-D.Allen (40-J.Strnad) [92-D.Tillman]. + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q414:56 Execution · LA (14:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 4-K.Mumpfield [99-Z.Allen]. + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Q400:42 Execution · LA (:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 4-K.Mumpfield (21-R.Moss). + Contested targets LA 13 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
nflverse-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 3, 2026, 12:01 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 b9a7a318547970a7ddaf14fad0a1b909997eccd4c0c6b84ae21554879099445dftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Oct 3, 2026, 12:21 PM UTC
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Retrieved Oct 4, 2026, 2:17 AM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 8e48fd20b2c83e312f16a634ddd55c5f176fc27ae34bfc14b9b3a02541ade2ccModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: 20f57b1109a57f3fa06dbe8010dcc8bc6b46bcca41186be25f1894c0c91d6076
Report updates Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
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Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 28, 2026, 4:26 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Score differential
0
Game seconds remaining 890
Half seconds remaining 890
Quarter seconds remaining 890
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.4354412599635945 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.36359/ NA/0.43544 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0
Game seconds remaining 524
Half seconds remaining 524
Quarter seconds remaining 524
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.5303369362202477 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.45352/0.53034/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LA 1.28 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 4/4 eligible events modeled
Home receive 2h ko
1
Game seconds remaining 3150
Half seconds remaining 1350
Quarter seconds remaining 450
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.4901656396251814 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.49017/0.48434/0.46008 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Catchable targets LA 34 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Receiver created receptions LA 3 count
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled
Score differential
-7
Game seconds remaining 2783
Half seconds remaining 983
Quarter seconds remaining 83
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.3782281034051561 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.37823/0.37560/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation DEN -2.59 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 36/36 eligible events modeled
Actual state Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions FTN charting labels, not calibrated outcome probabilities or error-attributable WPA. Coverage counts nonmissing charted labels; uncharted plays are not zero errors. FTN attribution and CC-BY-SA obligations apply. Model FTN-charting · 53/53 eligible events modeled