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Unrated Fair Debatable Hmm Sus RIGGED? Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
How this rating was calculated Some statistics or historical comparisons are missing or inconsistent. The available figures are shown below.
Rating methodology ↗ Why this result Game momentum Fan feedback Play details Data & updates
Why this result stands out—or doesn’t
Spread vs. result Within the usual range Expected margin New Orleans Saints by 3.5
Final margin Las Vegas Raiders by 8
Difference 11.5 points
Las Vegas Raiders covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
2,634 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (36.2%).
Where this comparison comes from The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗ Yardage + turnovers
Expected from the box score Unavailable
Actual final margin LV by 8
Difference — points
This compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
Were the penalties unusual? Accepted penalties / yards Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
The referee: Adrian Hill Head official Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.8 yards across both teams.
THE BREAKS BEHIND THE SCORE
How the result took shape Las Vegas Raiders · Drive extending penalties LV received 2 first downs from NO penalties on third or fourth down during drive 6. Review these plays together; this does not establish that any call was wrong.
New Orleans Saints · Sacks allowed Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Las Vegas Raiders · Sacks allowed Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Historical coverage & audit method 14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385Descriptive after-game comparison of fixed conditions; this is not a pregame prediction, p-value, misconduct probability or proof of causation. These exploratory product rules were motivated by known cases, then versioned and applied uniformly. This is not independent or held-out validation; definitions are frozen for later evaluations. Seven overlapping patterns are checked. They are correlated and are not combined into an overall anomaly score; multiple-pattern searching can find apparent outliers. Reference counts use complete aggregate team-games from strictly earlier seasons, including regular season and postseason. Same-season and future records are excluded. At least 20 matching prior team-games are required for labels: at most 5% wins for Historical outlier; at most 10% for Unusual winning profile. These are product flag thresholds, not calibrated significance tests. Review candidates are neutral priorities, not adjudicated errors or complete officiating coverage. Observed WP movement is the absolute whole-play change, never a beneficiary attribution or error-attributable cost. Review priorities use regulation WP only; separate experimental overtime estimates do not determine call correctness or coaching costs. Defensive penalties awarding first downs on third or fourth down are checked throughout the game. At least two distinct qualifying plays sharing an explicit provider drive and offensive team form a drive review cluster; this is not a claim that every penalty erased a stop. Declined, offsetting, ambiguous and independently converted plays are excluded from this check. Official aggregate totals supply the profile. PBP evidence links for aggregate context may be partial, particularly for multiple penalties; no approximate PBP penalty totals enter rarity comparisons. Complete official aggregate profiles are unavailable for one or both teams; affected historical comparisons are withheld. Descriptive historical team-game reference, not a trained fraud, integrity, or win-probability model. Only 1999–2025 regular-season and postseason games with paired attributed team stats and schedule scores are eligible; listed exclusions remain absent. Compare historical targets only with earlier seasons. Neither the target season nor future games belong in its comparison denominator. Total net offense is rushing_yards + passing_yards + signed sack_yards_lost. Return yards are excluded. Penalty counts/yards are provider accepted-penalty stat aggregates (stat_id 93), not a count of all flags or first-penalty PBP columns. Turnover margin is opponent (passing_interceptions + fumbles_lost_total) minus own; fumbles cover all units. Turnovers on downs are excluded. HOW THE GAME MOVED
Game momentum Before-play estimates
New Orleans Saints chance to win during the game 154 preplay estimates across 188 recorded game entries; 0 use an experimental overtime model. 34 entries have no estimate. The line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated. The line stops at the last available estimate. All recorded entries appear in the table below. 0% 50% 100% DIG INTO THE NUMBERS Detailed analysis by category Officiating, coaching, turnovers, kicking and execution. + 01
Impact of officiating decisions How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Fan feedback Loading fan feedback…
Notable plays 4 + These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
Q3 · 03:29 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 3068 (3:29) 4-M.Washington right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 35 yards (21-J.Reid). Las Vegas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-M.Washington right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Replay reversed a catch or scoring ruling; review the correction and remaining effect separately. Estimated chance to win moved 9.4 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 05:54 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 1528 (5:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on NO-28-D.Stutsman, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play.
Defensive penalty on NO awarded LV a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. 2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on LV drive 6; review the sequence together. Estimated chance to win moved 3.8 percentage points across this play.
Q2 · 06:43 Recorded game event
Las Vegas Raiders · Play 1444 (6:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Jeanty. PENALTY on NO-7-J.Sanker, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 18 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Source plays 188 Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
Browse all 188 source plays Q115:00 GAME Play 1 Q115:00 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 27 for 22 yards (81-D.Young). Play 39 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 27 for 22 yards (81-D.Young).
Q114:56 (14:56) 3-T.Etienne right guard to NO 29 for 2 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 11-J.Chinn). Play 62 (14:56) 3-T.Etienne right guard to NO 29 for 2 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 11-J.Chinn).
Q114:24 (14:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [94-F.Fatukasi]. Play 84 (14:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [94-F.Fatukasi].
Q114:18 (14:18) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right. Play 107 CHECK THE CALCULATIONS Play-by-play model evidence 35 Optional calculations for individual plays. + Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
Q205:54 Penalty · LV (5:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on NO-28-D.Stutsman, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -8.57 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 3
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2149
Half seconds remaining 349
Quarter seconds remaining 349
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down ABOUT THIS REPORT Data & report history Sources, calculation notes and earlier versions. + Automatic analysis Complete Updates automatically when source data changes.
Source data Early source data The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Data limitations and calculation notes (4) Overall percentile unavailable: no validated comparable-coverage aggregation. Officiating correctness: not reviewed. No statistical result establishes intent. Coaching promotion gate passed for insensitive supported regulation states; upstream training cutoff and unchosen action outcomes remain unverified. team_stats_incomplete: Game-profile comparison awaits paired team statistics; play review remains available. Data sources ftn-via-nflverse View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 9a3b89d5b371ea1421aacf1a701814b7a2886c8c920a5a221a72623dc8d7e90enflverse-team-stats View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 9:11 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 540bb5ea01ad604265f41180fce83d031ac415493966bb9268c91dfc1ac5c9bafootball-zebras View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot Games 3 5 Wins–losses–ties 0–3–0 1–4–0 Team penalties per game 5.3 / 40.7 yd 7.6 / 72.8 yd
Referee comparison details Home teams: 6 / 50.8 yd per game. Away teams: 6.7 / 54.9 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Adrian Hill; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Comparison coverage & method Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Expected penalties use prior-five-season team-committed and opponent-drawn averages shrunk toward the league with 20 games, combining equal deviations. Referee residual effects use a 40-game prior and at least 10 observed games; unavailable referee effects use a separately calibrated team/opponent baseline. The penalty family takes the maximum absolute standardized residual across total count, total yards, count imbalance, and yards imbalance; correlated components are not added. Imbalance is home minus away. Outcome expectation is retrospective: OLS uses final net-yard differential and turnover margin. It is not a pregame forecast, a win probability, or an attribution of who caused the outcome. Each calibration game is predicted using only its own preceding five seasons; tails use (at least as unusual + 1)/(calibration games + 1), requiring 500 calibration games. No current/future-season outcome enters fitting. Referee statistics describe games associated with the named head official, not a fixed crew or the person who threw each flag. Referee/team wins are context only. Overtime exposure, unrecorded fouls, and call correctness are not modeled. Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7
Non-offensive touchdowns combine def_tds and special_teams_tds only when fumble_recovery_tds is observed zero. Positive or missing fumble-recovery TD counts make this context null because offensive/defensive attribution and overlap are ambiguous. Missing inputs remain null, not zero.
Provider aggregates can differ from a PBP-derived target; reconcile material discrepancies before comparison. Complete means required fields are present, not independently gamebook-certified.
Modern provider aliases join historical schedule team codes; output preserves schedule codes and game IDs.
Data: nflverse / nflfastR, schedules additionally Lee Sharpe, CC BY 4.0. Transformations: joins, field selection, net totals, margins, exclusions and compression. First recorded entry Last recorded entry About this chart 154 model estimates across 188 recorded game entries.
34 entries have no estimate .
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
View all chart data (188 entries) Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -0.55 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -0.48 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -7.56 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -2.48 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -8.57 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -3.15 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
LV Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence -1.01 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Ruling expected points consequence -0.42 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
NO Observed ruling consequence Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
02
Coaching decisions Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53556/ NA/0.56007 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44481/0.48082/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39899/0.40098/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47192/ NA/0.51200 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.52827/ NA/0.53100 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72743/0.71582/0.76787 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
NO Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14096/0.09732/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
LV Fourth down decision cost 0 percentage points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.92061/ NA/0.93438 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
03
Fumble recoveries Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
NO Fumble recoveries above expectation -2.52 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
LV Fumble recoveries above expectation 2.52 recoveries HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
04
Kicking Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
NO Field goal points above expectation 0 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
LV Field goal points above expectation 0.53 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 13th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
NO Extra point points above expectation 0.09 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON 11th percentile This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
LV Extra point points above expectation 0.06 points HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
05
Player execution Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
NO Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 188 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
LV Execution charting Unavailable HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 188 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
06
Penalty patterns Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
NO Presnap called penalties above expectation 0.62 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 2 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -1.35 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 77 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.45 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
NO Pass interference called penalties above expectation 0.37 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 42 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Presnap called penalties above expectation -1.41 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
68 of 68 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 68 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Offensive holding called penalties above expectation -0.21 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
68 of 68 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 68 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Defensive holding called penalties above expectation 0.45 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 1 across 46 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 1. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
LV Pass interference called penalties above expectation -0.58 calls HISTORICAL COMPARISON Historical percentile unavailable Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
Called/enforced penalties, not adjudicated foul correctness. Family-specific opportunity counts; prior-game team/opponent tendencies; crew effects not normalized away. Observed 0 across 46 opportunities; penalty-generated first downs 0. Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Defensive penalty on NO awarded LV a first down on third down; call correctness requires review. 2 defensive penalty first downs on third or fourth down occurred on LV drive 6; review the sequence together. Estimated chance to win moved 3.6 percentage points across this play.
Q4 · 01:38 Recorded game event
New Orleans Saints · Play 4597 (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway [98-M.Crosby] at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway to NO 16 for no gain (6-T.Shough). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20 - No Play.
Recorded penalty late in a one score game; correctness and impact require review. Estimated chance to win moved 0.1 percentage points across this play.
(14:18) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.
Q114:14 (14:14) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. Play 130 (14:14) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
Q114:07 (14:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 32 for 8 yards (29-Q.Riley). Play 150 (14:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 32 for 8 yards (29-Q.Riley).
Q113:40 (13:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 31 for -1 yards (55-K.Elliss, 96-C.Granderson). Play 180 (13:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 31 for -1 yards (55-K.Elliss, 96-C.Granderson).
Q112:59 (12:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 9-J.Nailor to LV 47 for 16 yards (23-J.Blackmon) [93-N.Shepherd]. Play 202 (12:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 9-J.Nailor to LV 47 for 16 yards (23-J.Blackmon) [93-N.Shepherd].
Q112:19 (12:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NO 35 for 18 yards (55-K.Elliss). Play 227 (12:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NO 35 for 18 yards (55-K.Elliss).
Q111:38 (11:38) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 31 for 4 yards (92-D.Godchaux). Play 252 (11:38) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 31 for 4 yards (92-D.Godchaux).
Q110:57 (10:57) 4-M.Washington left guard to NO 28 for 3 yards (96-C.Granderson; 93-N.Shepherd). Play 274 (10:57) 4-M.Washington left guard to NO 28 for 3 yards (96-C.Granderson; 93-N.Shepherd).
Q110:14 (10:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NO 17 for 11 yards (55-K.Elliss) [20-P.Werner]. Play 296 (10:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NO 17 for 11 yards (55-K.Elliss) [20-P.Werner].
Q109:30 (9:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-C.White (1-K.McKinstry). Play 321 (9:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-C.White (1-K.McKinstry).
Q109:26 (9:26) 2-A.Jeanty right end to NO 8 for 9 yards (33-A.Jennings). PENALTY on LV-1-T.Tucker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 14. Play 344 (9:26) 2-A.Jeanty right end to NO 8 for 9 yards (33-A.Jennings). PENALTY on LV-1-T.Tucker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 14.
Q109:06 (9:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 20 for 4 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 377 (9:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 20 for 4 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q108:19 (8:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at NO 23 for -3 yards (99-C.Young). Play 402 (8:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at NO 23 for -3 yards (99-C.Young).
Q107:39 (7:39) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 422 (7:39) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q107:35 14-M.Gay kicks 63 yards from LV 35 to NO 2. 38-J.Price to NO 21 for 19 yards (82-C.White). Play 442 14-M.Gay kicks 63 yards from LV 35 to NO 2. 38-J.Price to NO 21 for 19 yards (82-C.White).
Q107:30 (7:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 27 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 472 (7:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 27 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q107:04 (7:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 30 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 497 (7:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 30 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q106:33 (6:33) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 32 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 519 (6:33) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 32 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q105:54 (5:54) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at LV 32 for 36 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 541 (5:54) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at LV 32 for 36 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q105:18 (5:18) 3-T.Etienne left guard to LV 28 for 4 yards (51-M.Koonce). Play 568 (5:18) 3-T.Etienne left guard to LV 28 for 4 yards (51-M.Koonce).
Q104:40 (4:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave. Play 590 (4:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave.
Q104:34 (4:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to LV 17 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 613 (4:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to LV 17 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q103:56 (3:56) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 13 for 4 yards (7-Q.Walker; 98-M.Crosby). Play 638 (3:56) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 13 for 4 yards (7-Q.Walker; 98-M.Crosby).
Q103:14 (3:14) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 4 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 13 - No Play. Play 660 (3:14) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 4 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 13 - No Play.
Q102:53 (2:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Vele [98-M.Crosby]. Play 696 (2:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Vele [98-M.Crosby].
Q102:45 (2:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 6 for 12 yards (35-H.Masses) [51-M.Koonce]. Play 719 (2:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 6 for 12 yards (35-H.Masses) [51-M.Koonce].
Q102:17 (2:17) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to LV 1 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 7-Q.Walker). Play 744 (2:17) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to LV 1 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 7-Q.Walker).
Q101:35 (1:35) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 2 for -1 yards (97-T.Hemingway). Play 766 (1:35) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 2 for -1 yards (97-T.Hemingway).
Q100:54 (:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 788 (:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q100:50 10-D.Carlson extra point is Blocked (99-T.Booker), Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 814 10-D.Carlson extra point is Blocked (99-T.Booker), Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q100:50 10-D.Carlson kicks 37 yards from NO 35 to LV 28, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LV 40. Play 829 10-D.Carlson kicks 37 yards from NO 35 to LV 28, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LV 40.
Q100:50 (:50) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 43 for 3 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 876 (:50) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 43 for 3 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q100:12 (:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LV 48 for 5 yards (20-P.Werner). Play 901 (:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LV 48 for 5 yards (20-P.Werner).
Q100:00 END QUARTER 1 Play 943 Q215:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to NO 45 for 7 yards (7-J.Sanker). Play 931 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to NO 45 for 7 yards (7-J.Sanker).
Q214:25 (14:25) 2-A.Jeanty right end to NO 41 for 4 yards (33-A.Jennings; 97-K.Boyd). Play 967 (14:25) 2-A.Jeanty right end to NO 41 for 4 yards (33-A.Jennings; 97-K.Boyd).
Q213:46 (13:46) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to NO 23 for 18 yards (55-K.Elliss; 1-K.McKinstry). Play 989 (13:46) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to NO 23 for 18 yards (55-K.Elliss; 1-K.McKinstry).
Q213:08 (13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to NO 15 for 8 yards (20-P.Werner; 7-J.Sanker). Play 1014 (13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to NO 15 for 8 yards (20-P.Werner; 7-J.Sanker).
Q212:29 (12:29) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 14 for 1 yard (91-V.Broughton; 92-D.Godchaux). Play 1039 (12:29) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 14 for 1 yard (91-V.Broughton; 92-D.Godchaux).
Q211:58 (11:58) 34-C.Heyward up the middle to NO 12 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play. Play 1062 (11:58) 34-C.Heyward up the middle to NO 12 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play.
Q211:35 (11:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (1-K.McKinstry). Play 1095 (11:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (1-K.McKinstry).
Q211:30 (11:30) 14-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 1118 (11:30) 14-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q211:27 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to NO 4. 5-K.Miller to NO 22 for 18 yards (50-S.Olubi; 44-T.Eichenberg). Play 1138 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to NO 4. 5-K.Miller to NO 22 for 18 yards (50-S.Olubi; 44-T.Eichenberg).
Q211:21 (11:21) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 19 for -3 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 1168 (11:21) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 19 for -3 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q210:45 (10:45) PENALTY on NO-51-C.Ruiz, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play. Play 1190 (10:45) PENALTY on NO-51-C.Ruiz, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play.
Q210:26 (10:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 19 for 5 yards (35-H.Masses; 7-Q.Walker) [93-P.Johnson]. Play 1214 (10:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 19 for 5 yards (35-H.Masses; 7-Q.Walker) [93-P.Johnson].
Q209:45 (9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance. Play 1244 (9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance.
Q209:39 (9:39) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Benson ran ob at LV 47 for 13 yards (38-J.Price). Play 1267 (9:39) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Benson ran ob at LV 47 for 13 yards (38-J.Price).
Q209:31 (9:31) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to NO 42 for 11 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 55-K.Elliss). Play 1298 (9:31) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to NO 42 for 11 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 55-K.Elliss).
Q208:55 (8:55) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty right end pushed ob at NO 40 for 2 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 96-C.Granderson). Play 1335 (8:55) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty right end pushed ob at NO 40 for 2 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 96-C.Granderson).
Q208:13 (8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NO 21 for 19 yards (55-K.Elliss; 7-J.Sanker). Play 1364 (8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NO 21 for 19 yards (55-K.Elliss; 7-J.Sanker).
Q207:28 (7:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 9-J.Nailor. Play 1399 (7:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 9-J.Nailor.
Q207:24 (7:24) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington left end to NO 18 for 3 yards (96-C.Granderson). Play 1422 (7:24) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington left end to NO 18 for 3 yards (96-C.Granderson).
Q206:43 (6:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Jeanty. PENALTY on NO-7-J.Sanker, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 18 - No Play. Play 1444 (6:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Jeanty. PENALTY on NO-7-J.Sanker, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 18 - No Play.
Q206:37 (6:37) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [50-C.Wooden]. Play 1478 (6:37) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [50-C.Wooden].
Q206:33 (6:33) 2-A.Jeanty right end pushed ob at NO 5 for 6 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Play 1501 (6:33) 2-A.Jeanty right end pushed ob at NO 5 for 6 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
Q205:54 (5:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on NO-28-D.Stutsman, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play. Play 1528 (5:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on NO-28-D.Stutsman, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play.
Q205:49 (5:49) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1562 (5:49) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q205:46 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 1590 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q205:46 14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NO 6. 38-J.Price to NO 28 for 22 yards (26-D.Porter). Play 1605 14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NO 6. 38-J.Price to NO 28 for 22 yards (26-D.Porter).
Q205:39 (5:39) 3-T.Etienne left tackle to NO 34 for 6 yards (35-H.Masses; 7-Q.Walker). Play 1635 (5:39) 3-T.Etienne left tackle to NO 34 for 6 yards (35-H.Masses; 7-Q.Walker).
Q205:08 (5:08) 3-T.Etienne right end to NO 37 for 3 yards (17-N.Dean; 3-T.Johnson). Play 1657 (5:08) 3-T.Etienne right end to NO 37 for 3 yards (17-N.Dean; 3-T.Johnson).
Q204:33 (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left guard to NO 41 for 4 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 1679 (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left guard to NO 41 for 4 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q204:06 (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at LV 46 for 13 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 1701 (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at LV 46 for 13 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q203:32 (3:32) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at LV 30 for 16 yards. Play 1731 (3:32) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at LV 30 for 16 yards.
Q203:15 (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant to LV 21 for 9 yards (5-E.Stokes). Play 1756 (3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant to LV 21 for 9 yards (5-E.Stokes).
Q202:38 (2:38) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at LV 7 for 14 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 1781 (2:38) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at LV 7 for 14 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q202:18 (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left end to LV 3 for 4 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 1811 (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left end to LV 3 for 4 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q202:00 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (98-M.Crosby). Play 1833 (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (98-M.Crosby).
Q201:57 (1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 1863 (1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q201:54 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 1889 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q201:54 10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35. Play 1909 10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35.
Q201:54 (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 37 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker; 93-N.Shepherd). Play 1933 (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 37 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker; 93-N.Shepherd).
Q201:15 (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 9-J.Nailor. Play 1955 (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 9-J.Nailor.
Q201:10 (1:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 48 for 11 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Play 1978 (1:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 48 for 11 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
Q201:05 (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers. PENALTY on NO-29-Q.Riley, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play. Play 2008 (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers. PENALTY on NO-29-Q.Riley, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play.
Q200:58 (:58) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 1-T.Tucker to NO 36 for 11 yards (28-D.Stutsman). Play 2042 (:58) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 1-T.Tucker to NO 36 for 11 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
Q200:38 (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 25 for 11 yards (55-K.Elliss). Play 2067 (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 25 for 11 yards (55-K.Elliss).
Q200:30 Timeout #1 by LV at 00:30. Play 2104 Timeout #1 by LV at 00:30.
Q200:30 (:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at NO 34 for -9 yards (97-K.Boyd). Play 2092 (:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at NO 34 for -9 yards (97-K.Boyd).
Q200:24 Timeout #2 by LV at 00:24. Play 2131 Timeout #2 by LV at 00:24.
Q200:24 (:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles up the middle to NO 29 for 5 yards (28-D.Stutsman). Play 2119 (:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles up the middle to NO 29 for 5 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
Q200:19 Timeout #3 by LV at 00:19. Play 2160 Timeout #3 by LV at 00:19.
Q200:19 Timeout #1 by NO at 00:19. Play 2167 Timeout #1 by NO at 00:19.
Q200:19 (:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at NO 14 for 15 yards (7-J.Sanker). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. Play 2148 (:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at NO 14 for 15 yards (7-J.Sanker). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q200:14 (:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Bech. PENALTY on NO-21-J.Reid, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play. Play 2192 (:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Bech. PENALTY on NO-21-J.Reid, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play.
Q200:11 (:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left. Play 2266 (:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left.
Q200:07 (:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers. Play 2289 (:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers.
Q200:04 Timeout #2 by NO at 00:04. Play 2330 Timeout #2 by NO at 00:04.
Q200:04 (:04) 14-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 2312 (:04) 14-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q200:00 END QUARTER 2 Play 2339 Q315:00 21-J.Reid kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to LV 5. 81-D.Young to LV 37 for 32 yards (44-I.Stalbird). Play 2357 21-J.Reid kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to LV 5. 81-D.Young to LV 37 for 32 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
Q314:55 (14:55) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 37 for no gain (28-D.Stutsman; 92-D.Godchaux). Play 2380 (14:55) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 37 for no gain (28-D.Stutsman; 92-D.Godchaux).
Q314:21 (14:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to LV 42 for 5 yards (29-Q.Riley; 28-D.Stutsman). Play 2402 (14:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to LV 42 for 5 yards (29-Q.Riley; 28-D.Stutsman).
Q313:41 (13:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (33-A.Jennings). Play 2427 (13:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (33-A.Jennings).
Q313:37 (13:37) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 38-J.Price. Play 2450 (13:37) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 38-J.Price.
Q313:30 (13:30) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NO 24 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 2470 (13:30) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NO 24 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q313:01 (13:01) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne right tackle to NO 28 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 2512 (13:01) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne right tackle to NO 28 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q312:23 (12:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 3-T.Etienne to NO 35 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 2534 (12:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 3-T.Etienne to NO 35 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q311:38 (11:38) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). The ball spot was assisted by replay. Play 2559 (11:38) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
Q311:08 (11:08) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 48 for 4 yards (95-K.Paye; 97-T.Hemingway). Play 2581 (11:08) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 48 for 4 yards (95-K.Paye; 97-T.Hemingway).
Q310:21 (10:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 3-T.Etienne to LV 46 for 6 yards (95-K.Paye; 69-A.Butler). Play 2605 (10:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 3-T.Etienne to LV 46 for 6 yards (95-K.Paye; 69-A.Butler).
Q309:48 (9:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 40 for 6 yards (69-A.Butler; 5-E.Stokes). Play 2630 (9:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 40 for 6 yards (69-A.Butler; 5-E.Stokes).
Q309:11 (9:11) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to LV 36 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 2652 (9:11) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to LV 36 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q308:37 (8:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 24 for 12 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 2677 (8:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 24 for 12 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q308:01 (8:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to LV 7 for 17 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 2702 (8:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to LV 7 for 17 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q307:21 (7:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to LV 1 for 6 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 2727 (7:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to LV 1 for 6 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q306:58 (6:58) (No Huddle) PENALTY on LV-99-T.Booker, Neutral Zone Infraction, 0 yards, enforced at LV 1 - No Play. Play 2752 (6:58) (No Huddle) PENALTY on LV-99-T.Booker, Neutral Zone Infraction, 0 yards, enforced at LV 1 - No Play.
Q306:44 (6:44) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. Play 2776 (6:44) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby].
Q306:40 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 2802 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q306:40 10-D.Carlson kicks 63 yards from NO 35 to LV 2. 23-D.Laube to LV 30 for 28 yards (33-A.Jennings). FUMBLES (33-A.Jennings), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at LV 32. Play 2817 10-D.Carlson kicks 63 yards from NO 35 to LV 2. 23-D.Laube to LV 30 for 28 yards (33-A.Jennings). FUMBLES (33-A.Jennings), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at LV 32.
Q306:33 (6:33) 3-T.Etienne right tackle pushed ob at LV 16 for 16 yards (11-J.Chinn). Play 2866 (6:33) 3-T.Etienne right tackle pushed ob at LV 16 for 16 yards (11-J.Chinn).
Q305:54 (5:54) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 2893 (5:54) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q305:46 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. Play 2924 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q305:46 10-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to LV 6. 81-D.Young to LV 29 for 23 yards (42-M.Reid; 44-I.Stalbird). Play 2939 10-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to LV 6. 81-D.Young to LV 29 for 23 yards (42-M.Reid; 44-I.Stalbird).
Q305:40 (5:40) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 35 for 6 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 2969 (5:40) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 35 for 6 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q305:04 (5:04) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 35 for no gain (28-D.Stutsman). Play 2991 (5:04) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 35 for no gain (28-D.Stutsman).
Q304:22 (4:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers to NO 45 for 20 yards (1-K.McKinstry). Play 3013 (4:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers to NO 45 for 20 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
Q303:55 (3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker ran ob at NO 36 for 9 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 3038 (3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker ran ob at NO 36 for 9 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q303:29 (3:29) 4-M.Washington right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 35 yards (21-J.Reid). Las Vegas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-M.Washington right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3068 (3:29) 4-M.Washington right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 35 yards (21-J.Reid). Las Vegas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-M.Washington right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q303:20 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins pass to 2-A.Jeanty is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 3095 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins pass to 2-A.Jeanty is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q303:20 14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NO 6, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-14-M.Gay, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at NO 40. Play 3147 14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NO 6, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-14-M.Gay, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at NO 40.
Q303:20 (3:20) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 45 for 5 yards (69-A.Butler; 7-Q.Walker). Play 3181 (3:20) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 45 for 5 yards (69-A.Butler; 7-Q.Walker).
Q303:01 (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 43 for 12 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 3203 (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 43 for 12 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q302:23 (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance. Play 3228 (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance.
Q302:18 (2:18) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave. Play 3256 (2:18) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave.
Q302:14 (2:14) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Vele (3-T.Johnson). Play 3279 (2:14) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Vele (3-T.Johnson).
Q302:07 (2:07) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play. Play 3302 (2:07) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.
Q302:07 (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to LV 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-D.Laube. Play 3330 (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to LV 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.
Q302:01 (2:01) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-C.White. Play 3350 (2:01) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-C.White.
Q301:57 (1:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right. ** Injury Update: NO-96-C.Granderson has returned to the game. Play 3380 (1:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right. ** Injury Update: NO-96-C.Granderson has returned to the game.
Q301:52 (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Benson. Play 3403 (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Benson.
Q301:47 (1:47) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to NO 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 38-J.Price to NO 39 for 11 yards (93-P.Johnson). Play 3429 (1:47) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to NO 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 38-J.Price to NO 39 for 11 yards (93-P.Johnson).
Q301:36 (1:36) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 44 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 3466 (1:36) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 44 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q300:57 (:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (17-N.Dean). Play 3488 (:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (17-N.Dean).
Q300:53 (:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 45 for 11 yards (35-H.Masses). Play 3511 (:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 45 for 11 yards (35-H.Masses).
Q300:16 (:16) 5-K.Miller right guard to LV 44 for 1 yard (3-T.Johnson). Play 3536 (:16) 5-K.Miller right guard to LV 44 for 1 yard (3-T.Johnson).
Q300:00 END QUARTER 3 Play 3567 Q415:00 (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay. Play 3587 (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay.
Q414:57 (14:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at LV 35 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 3632 (14:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at LV 35 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q414:19 (14:19) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at LV 30 for 5 yards. Play 3662 (14:19) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at LV 30 for 5 yards.
Q413:45 (13:45) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LV 29 for 1 yard (3-T.Johnson). Play 3692 (13:45) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LV 29 for 1 yard (3-T.Johnson).
Q413:04 (13:04) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 39 for -10 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], touched at LV 39, RECOVERED by LV-98-M.Crosby at LV 45. Play 3716 (13:04) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 39 for -10 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], touched at LV 39, RECOVERED by LV-98-M.Crosby at LV 45.
Q412:55 (12:55) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 33 for 22 yards (55-K.Elliss; 7-J.Sanker). Play 3746 (12:55) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 33 for 22 yards (55-K.Elliss; 7-J.Sanker).
Q412:11 (12:11) 2-A.Jeanty left end to NO 26 for 7 yards (28-D.Stutsman). Play 3782 (12:11) 2-A.Jeanty left end to NO 26 for 7 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
Q411:31 (11:31) 4-M.Washington right end to NO 21 for 5 yards (50-C.Wooden; 23-J.Blackmon). Play 3804 (11:31) 4-M.Washington right end to NO 21 for 5 yards (50-C.Wooden; 23-J.Blackmon).
Q410:50 (10:50) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to NO 6 for 15 yards (21-J.Reid). Play 3836 (10:50) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to NO 6 for 15 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q410:06 (10:06) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 4 for 2 yards (50-C.Wooden). Play 3861 (10:06) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 4 for 2 yards (50-C.Wooden).
Q409:27 (9:27) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 3883 (9:27) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q409:21 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS. Play 3909 TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q409:21 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NO 5. 85-J.Moreno-Cropper to NO 27 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg; 23-D.Laube). Play 3922 14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NO 5. 85-J.Moreno-Cropper to NO 27 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg; 23-D.Laube).
Q409:15 (9:15) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 30 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby). Play 3954 (9:15) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 30 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby).
Q408:41 (8:41) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 5-K.Miller to NO 31 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). Play 3976 (8:41) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 5-K.Miller to NO 31 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean).
Q408:03 (8:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-69-A.Butler at NO 4. Play 4001 (8:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-69-A.Butler at NO 4.
Q407:48 (7:48) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to NO 2 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux). Play 4049 (7:48) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to NO 2 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux).
Q407:10 (7:10) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 4 for -2 yards (97-K.Boyd). Play 4071 (7:10) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 4 for -2 yards (97-K.Boyd).
Q406:28 (6:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play 4095 (6:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q406:22 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. Play 4121 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q406:22 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to NO 4. 38-J.Price to NO 24 for 20 yards (81-D.Young). Play 4136 14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to NO 4. 38-J.Price to NO 24 for 20 yards (81-D.Young).
Q406:17 (6:17) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 35 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 4166 (6:17) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 35 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q405:44 (5:44) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 38 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker; 95-K.Paye). Play 4188 (5:44) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 38 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker; 95-K.Paye).
Q405:09 (5:09) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 6 yards (17-N.Dean). Play 4210 (5:09) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 6 yards (17-N.Dean).
Q404:30 (4:30) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NO 49 for 5 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn), ball out of bounds at LV 47. Play 4232 (4:30) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NO 49 for 5 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn), ball out of bounds at LV 47.
Q403:52 (3:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson ran ob at LV 29 for 22 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). Play 4263 (3:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson ran ob at LV 29 for 22 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
Q403:43 (3:43) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 5-K.Miller. Play 4298 (3:43) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 5-K.Miller.
Q403:38 (3:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to LV 20 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 4333 (3:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to LV 20 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q403:01 (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LV 20 for no gain (51-M.Koonce). Play 4358 (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LV 20 for no gain (51-M.Koonce).
Q402:21 Timeout #1 by LV at 02:21. Play 4392 Timeout #1 by LV at 02:21.
Q402:21 (2:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn) [11-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-3-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby. Play 4380 (2:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn) [11-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-3-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby.
Q402:15 (2:15) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 44 for 12 yards (23-J.Blackmon). Play 4437 (2:15) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 44 for 12 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
Q402:00 (2:00) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 48 for 4 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 92-D.Godchaux). Play 4459 (2:00) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 48 for 4 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 92-D.Godchaux).
Q401:55 Timeout #1 by NO at 01:55. Play 4505 Timeout #1 by NO at 01:55.
Q401:55 (1:55) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 49 for 1 yard (55-K.Elliss; 21-J.Reid). Play 4493 (1:55) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 49 for 1 yard (55-K.Elliss; 21-J.Reid).
Q401:48 Timeout #2 by NO at 01:48. Play 4534 Timeout #2 by NO at 01:48.
Q401:48 (1:48) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 40 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], recovered by LV-34-C.Heyward at LV 40. Play 4522 (1:48) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 40 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], recovered by LV-34-C.Heyward at LV 40.
Q401:44 Timeout #3 by NO at 01:44. Play 4584 Timeout #3 by NO at 01:44.
Q401:44 (1:44) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. Play 4568 (1:44) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
Q401:38 (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway [98-M.Crosby] at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway to NO 16 for no gain (6-T.Shough). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20 - No Play. Play 4597 (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway [98-M.Crosby] at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway to NO 16 for no gain (6-T.Shough). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20 - No Play.
Q401:31 (1:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 21 for -4 yards (7-Q.Walker). Play 4643 (1:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 21 for -4 yards (7-Q.Walker).
Q401:08 (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (3-T.Johnson). Play 4668 (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (3-T.Johnson).
Q401:02 (1:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), touched at NO 40, RECOVERED by LV-5-E.Stokes at NO 35. Play 4698 (1:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), touched at NO 40, RECOVERED by LV-5-E.Stokes at NO 35.
Q400:53 (:53) 8-K.Cousins kneels to NO 36 for -1 yards. Play 4743 (:53) 8-K.Cousins kneels to NO 36 for -1 yards.
Q400:35 (:35) 8-K.Cousins kneels to NO 37 for -1 yards. Play 4765 (:35) 8-K.Cousins kneels to NO 37 for -1 yards.
4
Game seconds remaining 2149
Half seconds remaining 349
Quarter seconds remaining 349
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -3.15 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 3
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 3
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2149
Half seconds remaining 349
Quarter seconds remaining 349
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 4
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 5
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2149
Half seconds remaining 349
Quarter seconds remaining 349
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q206:43 Penalty · LV (6:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Jeanty. PENALTY on NO-7-J.Sanker, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 18 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -7.56 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 11
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2197
Half seconds remaining 397
Quarter seconds remaining 397
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 7
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2197
Half seconds remaining 397
Quarter seconds remaining 397
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -2.48 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 1
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 11
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2197
Half seconds remaining 397
Quarter seconds remaining 397
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 7
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 18
Receive 2h ko 1
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2197
Half seconds remaining 397
Quarter seconds remaining 397
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Observed incomplete pass stands without enforcement; this is not an estimate of a foul-free play. Q302:07 Penalty · NO (2:07) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -1.01 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 15
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -0.42 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 15
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 48
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 4
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 10
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 43
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Fourth down decision cost NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q210:45 Penalty · NO (10:45) PENALTY on NO-51-C.Ruiz, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO -0.55 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 18
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 86
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2445
Half seconds remaining 645
Quarter seconds remaining 645
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 13
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 81
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2445
Half seconds remaining 645
Quarter seconds remaining 645
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO -0.48 points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 18
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 86
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2445
Half seconds remaining 645
Quarter seconds remaining 645
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 2
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 13
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 81
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 0
Game seconds remaining 2445
Half seconds remaining 645
Quarter seconds remaining 645
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q114:14 Fourth down · NO (14:14) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Benson. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 8
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team NO
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 3.325605814577128
Yardline 100 71
Elapsed share 0.01277777777777778
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3554
Half seconds remaining 1754
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 854
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5600710999538538 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.53556/ NA/0.56007 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q107:39 Kick · LV (7:39) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 1
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 16
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team NO
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 2.144192379645456
Yardline 100 23
Elapsed share 0.1225
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 3159
Half seconds remaining 1359
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 459
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4808173018165134 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.44481/0.48082/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV 0.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q211:30 Kick · LV (11:30) 14-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team NO
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 1.019619618967148
Yardline 100 18
Elapsed share 0.3083333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 1
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential -3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2490
Half seconds remaining 690
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 690
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action fg
ExpectedWp 0.4009788989140443 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: fg; preferred baseline action: fg; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.39899/0.40098/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Field goal points above expectation LV 0.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q209:39 Fourth down · NO (9:39) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Benson ran ob at LV 47 for 13 yards (38-J.Price). + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 2
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 13
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team NO
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.9013120912445531
Yardline 100 81
Elapsed share 0.3391666666666667
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko -1
Score differential 0
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 2379
Half seconds remaining 579
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 579
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5119966321307807 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.47192/ NA/0.51200 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q313:37 Fourth down · LV (13:37) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 38-J.Price. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 5
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team NO
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.4319440324145686
Yardline 100 58
Elapsed share 0.5230555555555556
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 3
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1717
Half seconds remaining 1717
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 817
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.5310026210178607 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.52827/ NA/0.53100 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q306:58 Penalty · NO (6:58) (No Huddle) PENALTY on LV-99-T.Booker, Neutral Zone Infraction, 0 yards, enforced at LV 1 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 1318
Half seconds remaining 1318
Quarter seconds remaining 418
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 1318
Half seconds remaining 1318
Quarter seconds remaining 418
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative. Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning. Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Ruling expected points consequence NO 0 points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 1318
Half seconds remaining 1318
Quarter seconds remaining 418
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Qtr 3
Down 2
Roof dome
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Away team LV
Home team NO
Spread line 0
Yardline 100 1
Receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -3
Game seconds remaining 1318
Half seconds remaining 1318
Quarter seconds remaining 418
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Assumptions Same-clock state without presnap enforcement; does not imply the foul was incorrectly called. Q302:07 Fourth down · NO (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to LV 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-D.Laube. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 3
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 15
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team NO
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.2006634965492538
Yardline 100 48
Elapsed share 0.7147222222222223
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 5
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 1027
Half seconds remaining 1027
Away timeouts remaining 3
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 127
Defteam timeouts remaining 3
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.7678693091462618 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.72743/0.71582/0.76787 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q402:21 Fumble · NO (2:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn) [11-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-3-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby. + Fourth down decision cost NO 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam NO
Ydstogo 1
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team NO
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.07497726349261138
Yardline 100 20
Elapsed share 0.9608333333333333
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 23.5
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread 3.5
Original posteam NO
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential -8
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 141
Half seconds remaining 141
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 3
Quarter seconds remaining 141
Defteam timeouts remaining 2
Posteam timeouts remaining 3 Supported alternative
Action go
ExpectedWp 0.1409553623187857 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: go; preferred baseline action: go; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.14096/0.09732/ NA A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation NO -2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Show the remaining 23 recorded events Q401:44 Fourth down · LV (1:44) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. + Fourth down decision cost LV 0 percentage points
Actual state
Qtr 4
Dome 1
Down 4
Era0 0
Era1 0
Era2 0
Era3 0
Era4 1
Roof dome
Type reg
Runoff 0
Season 2026
Posteam LV
Ydstogo 14
Outdoors 0
Away team LV
Home team NO
Away total 20
Home total 23.5
Total line 43.5
Retractable 0
Spread line 3.5
Spread time 0.07195736587690711
Yardline 100 60
Elapsed share 0.9711111111111111
Fg model roof 01
Posteam total 20
Receive 2h ko 0
Posteam spread -3.5
Original posteam LV
Home receive 2h ko 0
Score differential 8
Home opening kickoff 1
Game seconds remaining 104
Half seconds remaining 104
Away timeouts remaining 2
Home timeouts remaining 0
Quarter seconds remaining 104
Defteam timeouts remaining 0
Posteam timeouts remaining 2 Supported alternative
Action punt
ExpectedWp 0.9343772919356791 Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Kickoff continuation scenarios: standard_own35, touchback_own20, prior_return_start_35, prior_return_start_31, prior_return_start_26; sensitivity is not a confidence interval. Chosen action: punt; preferred baseline action: punt; expected WP go/FG/punt: 0.92061/ NA/0.93438 A supported value is a model-relative estimate in a tested domain, not a proven causal cost. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Q109:26 Penalty · LV (9:26) 2-A.Jeanty right end to NO 8 for 9 yards (33-A.Jennings). PENALTY on LV-1-T.Tucker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 14. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q103:14 Penalty · NO (3:14) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 4 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 13 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q100:50 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is Blocked (99-T.Booker), Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q100:50 Penalty · LV 10-D.Carlson kicks 37 yards from NO 35 to LV 28, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LV 40. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q211:58 Penalty · LV (11:58) 34-C.Heyward up the middle to NO 12 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q205:46 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q201:54 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q201:05 Penalty · LV (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers. PENALTY on NO-29-Q.Riley, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:14 Penalty · LV (:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Bech. PENALTY on NO-21-J.Reid, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q200:04 Kick · LV (:04) 14-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Field goal points above expectation LV 0.53 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q306:40 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q306:40 Fumble · LV 10-D.Carlson kicks 63 yards from NO 35 to LV 2. 23-D.Laube to LV 30 for 28 yards (33-A.Jennings). FUMBLES (33-A.Jennings), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at LV 32. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q305:46 Kick · NO 10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. + Extra point points above expectation NO 0.09 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Q303:20 Penalty · NO 14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NO 6, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-14-M.Gay, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at NO 40. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q301:47 Fourth down · LV (1:47) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to NO 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 38-J.Price to NO 39 for 11 yards (93-P.Johnson). + Fourth down decision cost LV Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Spread-adjusted nfl4th blended WP; distinct from officiating WP. Six seconds per action; no added successful-conversion runoff. No go-for-it turnover returns; kicking ignores kicker identity/weather; ordinary kickoff continuations only. Close-call tolerance is a product rule of 1 percentage point, not model uncertainty. Upstream training cutoff unverified; current-season validation status is documented separately. Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q413:04 Fumble · NO (13:04) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 39 for -10 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], touched at LV 39, RECOVERED by LV-98-M.Crosby at LV 45. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NO -2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q408:03 Fumble · NO (8:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-69-A.Butler at NO 4. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NO -2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q406:22 Kick · LV 14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. + Extra point points above expectation LV 0.06 points
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Nullified/blocked attempts and returns excluded; blocked kicks are not automatically kicker errors. Distance, era and reported roof; no weather or kicker-history adjustment in this model. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
Q404:30 Fumble · NO (4:30) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NO 49 for 5 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn), ball out of bounds at LV 47. + This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Q401:48 Fumble · LV (1:48) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 40 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], recovered by LV-34-C.Heyward at LV 40. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NO -2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Q401:38 Penalty · NO (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway [98-M.Crosby] at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway to NO 16 for no gain (6-T.Shough). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20 - No Play. + Observed ruling consequence NO Unavailable
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ruling correctness is not assessed automatically. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Q401:02 Fumble · NO (1:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), touched at NO 40, RECOVERED by LV-5-E.Stokes at NO 35. + Fumble recoveries above expectation NO -2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Fumble recoveries above expectation LV 2.52 recoveries
Actual state State not available.
Supported alternative No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Assumptions Ordinary single in-bounds fumbles only; recovery creation separated from recovery outcome. Recovery residual only; no unsupported recovery WP branches. Includes both own and opposing fumbles; two team views share the same events and sum to zero. Chronological training: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022; calibration: 2023 Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
SHA-256 30be4e6da445d997a452da4c59e600bd19e2779368e4dbd4057d1c07bfdc6317
sharp-football View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 5490c60a6d2bf2afc01c7dc0a13dd1f75bdec470381e683a9f2ac52a02db8acbnflverse-schedules View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:55 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 8ac068035f4cf7fa70813d84774721548605b7ff6dbf0ec41cd5d4052add81afnflverse-raw-pbp View original data ↗
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:56 PM UTC
Verify this snapshot SHA-256 9d854f1cc04671fc19dd1bb6ad758e20a51d48fc3d429bcbf22c098c05eac31cModel versions and technical record nflfastR / nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
nfl4th-adapted / under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
fumble / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
fg / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
xp / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
penalty / under-review-contextual-baselines-v1 Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
overtime-empirical / under-review-overtime-empirical-v1 Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
game-profile-audit / under-review-game-audit-v5 Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
spread-reference / under-review-spread-v1 Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
game-expectations / under-review-expectations-v1 Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: c515b4b10829b8215272e7aed6c8f0227b0b45d566e3bdadedbc57d65d1809ba
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Initial evidence-backed report.
Sep 28, 2026, 12:06 AM UTC
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Home-team perspective in both states; opponent benefit is its negative.
Event-local comparison; never sum these into an alternate chance of winning.
Ties excluded from published WP training; no overtime model. Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled