Expected result from final yardage and turnovers: LV by 9.1; actual result: LV by 8.
The 1.1-point difference was matched or exceeded in 728 of 816 earlier comparison games.
Opening the record…
Opening the record…
FINAL SCORE
GAME RATING
2 defensive penalties kept one LV drive alive.
| Game statistic | LVWIN | NOLOSS |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 35 | 27 |
| Total offensive yards | 340 | 381 |
| Penalties | 5 | 8 |
| Penalty yards | 19 | 36 |
| Turnover margin | +3 | -3 |
| Non-offensive touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
Las Vegas Raiders covered the spread. The underdog won outright.
2,634 of 7,276 earlier games were at least this far from the spread (36.2%).
The recorded closing spread is an expected winning margin, not the final score. We compare the size of the miss with earlier seasons: 1999–2025 seasons. At least 500 prior games are required to affect the rating.
The rating uses an add-one tail estimate and a three-comparison adjustment. Adjusted frequencies at most 20% qualify for Debatable; at most 10% qualify for Hmm. Spread alone cannot produce Sus or RIGGED?.
View the source data ↗HOW THE GAME MOVED
How a ruling changed the game state. Whether the ruling was correct is a separate question.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Loading fan feedback…
These recorded events provide context. Their count does not determine the game rating.
(3:29) 4-M.Washington right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 35 yards (21-J.Reid). Las Vegas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-M.Washington right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Estimated chance to win moved 9.4 percentage points across this play.
(5:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on NO-28-D.Stutsman, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 3.8 percentage points across this play.
(6:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Jeanty. PENALTY on NO-7-J.Sanker, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 18 - No Play.
THE UNDERLYING RECORD
Full play descriptions from this revision, including plays without a modeled event. A source description records the published outcome; it does not resolve whether a ruling was correct.
GAME
14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 27 for 22 yards (81-D.Young).
(14:56) 3-T.Etienne right guard to NO 29 for 2 yards (97-T.Hemingway; 11-J.Chinn).
(14:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right [94-F.Fatukasi].
Largest estimated individual impacts appear first. This order does not determine whether a call was right or wrong.
-8.57 percentage points Supported
Updates automatically when source data changes.
The automated analysis is complete using the first available final-game data. It will update when cleaned data arrives.
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-SA-4.0
SHA-256 9a3b89d5b371ea1421aacf1a701814b7a2886c8c920a5a221a72623dc8d7e90eRetrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright
SHA-256 30be4e6da445d997a452da4c59e600bd19e2779368e4dbd4057d1c07bfdc6317Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC
License: Public assignment facts; publisher copyright
SHA-256 5490c60a6d2bf2afc01c7dc0a13dd1f75bdec470381e683a9f2ac52a02db8acbThis compares the teams’ final yardage and turnover margin with past games. It is an after-game comparison, not a pregame prediction.
728 of 816 comparison games had a difference at least this large.
| Comparison | LV | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5 / 19 yd | 8 / 36 yd |
| Expected for this matchup | 6.3 / 52.5 yd | 6.3 / 53.6 yd |
| League average | 6 / 49.5 yd | 6 / 49.5 yd |
| Team’s usual penalties | 6.1 / 51.4 yd · 85 games | 6.1 / 52 yd · 85 games |
| Opponent usually draws | 6 / 49.5 yd · 85 games | 6.2 / 51.6 yd · 85 games |
The combined penalty total and imbalance were at least this unusual in 349 of 779 comparison games.
Expectations blend team history, penalties drawn by the opponent and available referee history. Counts and yards are evaluated together.
Assignment: Football Zebras · Sharp Football
In 78 earlier games with this head referee, crews called an average of 12.6 accepted penalties for 105.8 yards across both teams.
| Team history with this referee | LV | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 5 |
| Wins–losses–ties | 0–3–0 | 1–4–0 |
| Team penalties per game | 5.3 / 40.7 yd | 7.6 / 72.8 yd |
Home teams: 6 / 50.8 yd per game. Away teams: 6.7 / 54.9 yd per game.
These are crew totals in games led by Adrian Hill; they do not identify who threw each flag. Team win records are context and do not increase the rating. Small samples receive less weight.
Baseline seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Calibration seasons: 2023, 2024, 2025.
Each calibration game is evaluated using only seasons before that game. No result from 2026 enters this report’s historical baseline.
Model: under-review-expectations-v1
Reference SHA-256: f91190d2a1f6ce321d9257287fcce716936c47f9a3cfd86aebef9673079992f7LV received 2 first downs from NO penalties on third or fourth down during drive 6. Review these plays together; this does not establish that any call was wrong.
Allowed 2 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Opponent LV was charged 5 penalties for 19 yards.
Allowed 3 sacks, including 0 in overtime.
Opponent NO was charged 8 penalties for 36 yards.
14,512 prior team-games · 1999–2025 seasons
Audit: under-review-game-audit-v5
Reference: nflverse-team-game-profile-v1
Reference SHA-256: 3d37b64650758d0b199dcf07eb5c2448a5b67d426020fbb5af351fb6cc965385154 model estimates across 188 recorded game entries.
34 entries have no estimate.
Line connects available values; intermediate values are not calculated.
The horizontal axis follows recorded entries, not elapsed game time. Forecasts describe the state before a play. The line ends at the last available forecast.
| Period | Clock | Source play | NO win chance | Estimate source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 1 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 15:00 | Play 39 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 14:56 | Play 62 ↗ | 54.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:24 | Play 84 ↗ | 53.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:18 | Play 107 ↗ | 50.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:14 | Play 130 ↗ | 46.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 14:07 | Play 150 ↗ | 50.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 13:40 | Play 180 ↗ | 49.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:59 | Play 202 ↗ | 52.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 12:19 | Play 227 ↗ | 47.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 11:38 | Play 252 ↗ | 40.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:57 | Play 274 ↗ | 41.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 10:14 | Play 296 ↗ | 42.3% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:30 | Play 321 ↗ | 37.8% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:26 | Play 344 ↗ | 39.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 09:06 | Play 377 ↗ | 40.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 08:19 | Play 402 ↗ | 42.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:39 | Play 422 ↗ | 45.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:35 | Play 442 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 07:30 | Play 472 ↗ | 43.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 07:04 | Play 497 ↗ | 42.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 06:33 | Play 519 ↗ | 43.0% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:54 | Play 541 ↗ | 45.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 05:18 | Play 568 ↗ | 53.6% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:40 | Play 590 ↗ | 53.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 04:34 | Play 613 ↗ | 51.1% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:56 | Play 638 ↗ | 56.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 03:14 | Play 660 ↗ | 56.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:53 | Play 696 ↗ | 53.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:45 | Play 719 ↗ | 50.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 02:17 | Play 744 ↗ | 59.2% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 01:35 | Play 766 ↗ | 60.9% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:54 | Play 788 ↗ | 58.5% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:50 | Play 814 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 00:50 | Play 829 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q1 | 00:50 | Play 876 ↗ | 56.4% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:12 | Play 901 ↗ | 56.7% | Regulation model |
| Q1 | 00:00 | Play 943 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 15:00 | Play 931 ↗ | 57.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 14:25 | Play 967 ↗ | 52.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:46 | Play 989 ↗ | 51.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 13:08 | Play 1014 ↗ | 45.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 12:29 | Play 1039 ↗ | 45.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:58 | Play 1062 ↗ | 47.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:35 | Play 1095 ↗ | 48.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:30 | Play 1118 ↗ | 53.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 11:27 | Play 1138 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 11:21 | Play 1168 ↗ | 53.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:45 | Play 1190 ↗ | 50.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 10:26 | Play 1214 ↗ | 50.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:45 | Play 1244 ↗ | 48.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:39 | Play 1267 ↗ | 43.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 09:31 | Play 1298 ↗ | 47.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:55 | Play 1335 ↗ | 45.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 08:13 | Play 1364 ↗ | 42.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:28 | Play 1399 ↗ | 37.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 07:24 | Play 1422 ↗ | 38.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:43 | Play 1444 ↗ | 40.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:37 | Play 1478 ↗ | 36.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 06:33 | Play 1501 ↗ | 37.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:54 | Play 1528 ↗ | 38.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:49 | Play 1562 ↗ | 34.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:46 | Play 1590 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 05:46 | Play 1605 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 05:39 | Play 1635 ↗ | 30.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 05:08 | Play 1657 ↗ | 31.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:33 | Play 1679 ↗ | 31.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 04:06 | Play 1701 ↗ | 32.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:32 | Play 1731 ↗ | 35.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 03:15 | Play 1756 ↗ | 38.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:38 | Play 1781 ↗ | 41.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:18 | Play 1811 ↗ | 43.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 02:00 | Play 1833 ↗ | 44.0% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:57 | Play 1863 ↗ | 42.4% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:54 | Play 1889 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:54 | Play 1909 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 01:54 | Play 1933 ↗ | 47.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:15 | Play 1955 ↗ | 48.7% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:10 | Play 1978 ↗ | 52.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 01:05 | Play 2008 ↗ | 44.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:58 | Play 2042 ↗ | 44.1% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:38 | Play 2067 ↗ | 39.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:30 | Play 2104 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:30 | Play 2092 ↗ | 37.8% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:24 | Play 2131 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:24 | Play 2119 ↗ | 41.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:19 | Play 2160 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:19 | Play 2167 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:19 | Play 2148 ↗ | 43.3% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:14 | Play 2192 ↗ | 37.5% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:11 | Play 2266 ↗ | 36.6% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:07 | Play 2289 ↗ | 38.2% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:04 | Play 2330 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q2 | 00:04 | Play 2312 ↗ | 38.9% | Regulation model |
| Q2 | 00:00 | Play 2339 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 15:00 | Play 2357 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 14:55 | Play 2380 ↗ | 38.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 14:21 | Play 2402 ↗ | 40.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:41 | Play 2427 ↗ | 41.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:37 | Play 2450 ↗ | 45.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:30 | Play 2470 ↗ | 43.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 13:01 | Play 2512 ↗ | 44.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 12:23 | Play 2534 ↗ | 43.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:38 | Play 2559 ↗ | 46.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 11:08 | Play 2581 ↗ | 49.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 10:21 | Play 2605 ↗ | 48.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:48 | Play 2630 ↗ | 49.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 09:11 | Play 2652 ↗ | 52.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:37 | Play 2677 ↗ | 53.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 08:01 | Play 2702 ↗ | 56.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 07:21 | Play 2727 ↗ | 60.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:58 | Play 2752 ↗ | 63.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:44 | Play 2776 ↗ | 63.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 06:40 | Play 2802 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 06:40 | Play 2817 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 06:33 | Play 2866 ↗ | 79.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:54 | Play 2893 ↗ | 82.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:46 | Play 2924 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 05:46 | Play 2939 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 05:40 | Play 2969 ↗ | 86.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 05:04 | Play 2991 ↗ | 86.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 04:22 | Play 3013 ↗ | 86.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:55 | Play 3038 ↗ | 84.0% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:29 | Play 3068 ↗ | 83.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:20 | Play 3095 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 03:20 | Play 3147 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q3 | 03:20 | Play 3181 ↗ | 78.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 03:01 | Play 3203 ↗ | 79.1% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:23 | Play 3228 ↗ | 81.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:18 | Play 3256 ↗ | 79.8% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:14 | Play 3279 ↗ | 77.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:07 | Play 3302 ↗ | 73.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:07 | Play 3330 ↗ | 72.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 02:01 | Play 3350 ↗ | 74.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:57 | Play 3380 ↗ | 76.4% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:52 | Play 3403 ↗ | 78.7% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:47 | Play 3429 ↗ | 80.9% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 01:36 | Play 3466 ↗ | 79.6% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:57 | Play 3488 ↗ | 79.2% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:53 | Play 3511 ↗ | 77.3% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:16 | Play 3536 ↗ | 81.5% | Regulation model |
| Q3 | 00:00 | Play 3567 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 15:00 | Play 3587 ↗ | 79.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:57 | Play 3632 ↗ | 77.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 14:19 | Play 3662 ↗ | 83.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:45 | Play 3692 ↗ | 82.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 13:04 | Play 3716 ↗ | 82.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:55 | Play 3746 ↗ | 68.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 12:11 | Play 3782 ↗ | 64.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 11:31 | Play 3804 ↗ | 59.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:50 | Play 3836 ↗ | 57.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 10:06 | Play 3861 ↗ | 54.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:27 | Play 3883 ↗ | 54.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 09:21 | Play 3909 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 09:21 | Play 3922 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 09:15 | Play 3954 ↗ | 54.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:41 | Play 3976 ↗ | 53.3% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 08:03 | Play 4001 ↗ | 50.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:48 | Play 4049 ↗ | 21.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 07:10 | Play 4071 ↗ | 21.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:28 | Play 4095 ↗ | 21.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 06:22 | Play 4121 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 06:22 | Play 4136 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 06:17 | Play 4166 ↗ | 13.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:44 | Play 4188 ↗ | 13.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 05:09 | Play 4210 ↗ | 10.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 04:30 | Play 4232 ↗ | 10.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:52 | Play 4263 ↗ | 9.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:43 | Play 4298 ↗ | 14.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:38 | Play 4333 ↗ | 12.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 03:01 | Play 4358 ↗ | 15.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:21 | Play 4392 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 02:21 | Play 4380 ↗ | 9.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:15 | Play 4437 ↗ | 2.4% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 02:00 | Play 4459 ↗ | 1.7% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:55 | Play 4505 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:55 | Play 4493 ↗ | 1.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:48 | Play 4534 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:48 | Play 4522 ↗ | 2.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:44 | Play 4584 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
| Q4 | 01:44 | Play 4568 ↗ | 2.9% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:38 | Play 4597 ↗ | 4.0% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:31 | Play 4643 ↗ | 4.2% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:08 | Play 4668 ↗ | 3.1% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 01:02 | Play 4698 ↗ | 4.8% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:53 | Play 4743 ↗ | 0.5% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:35 | Play 4765 ↗ | 0.6% | Regulation model |
| Q4 | 00:00 | Play 4787 ↗ | No estimate | State outside model coverage |
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Alternative requires review
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Unsupported state
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Clock or period ambiguity
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation
Fourth-down choices judged using what was known before the play.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Chosen action ambiguous
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Outside fourth down domain
0 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Close call
1 of 1 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1
Who recovered loose balls compared with what the model expected.
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Insufficient reference games
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 9 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
5 of 5 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1
Field goals and extra points compared with the expected chance of making them.
Incomplete or no opportunities
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
0 of 0 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 265 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
3 of 3 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Insufficient tail support
This team's absolute residual versus each comparable game's largest absolute team residual; identical model, complete coverage and opportunity-count stratum. Direction remains in the signed metric; rarity is not intent.
Reference: 2024–2025 · 252 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
2 of 2 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09
Recorded drops, catch opportunities, and other player mistakes when detailed data is available.
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 188 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Incomplete or no opportunities
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: FTN-charting
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
Ftn charting unavailable
0 of 188 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: FTN-charting
Whether the pattern of penalties looks unusual. The count alone cannot show that a call was wrong.
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
77 of 77 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
42 of 42 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
68 of 68 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
68 of 68 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Comparable reference unavailable
No comparable historical category reference. Direction remains in the signed metric.
Reference: · 0 games
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Reference SHA-256: 97e43120e789b47b70694be8fccd56e8e901fa22d8565c3dea8f0019f2479aa1A measure of rarity in this comparison, not a probability of manipulation.
46 of 46 eligible opportunities modeled.
Model: under-review-contextual-baselines-v1
Estimated chance to win moved 3.6 percentage points across this play.
(1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway [98-M.Crosby] at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway to NO 16 for no gain (6-T.Shough). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20 - No Play.
Estimated chance to win moved 0.1 percentage points across this play.
(14:18) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.
(14:14) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
(14:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 32 for 8 yards (29-Q.Riley).
(13:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 31 for -1 yards (55-K.Elliss, 96-C.Granderson).
(12:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 9-J.Nailor to LV 47 for 16 yards (23-J.Blackmon) [93-N.Shepherd].
(12:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NO 35 for 18 yards (55-K.Elliss).
(11:38) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 31 for 4 yards (92-D.Godchaux).
(10:57) 4-M.Washington left guard to NO 28 for 3 yards (96-C.Granderson; 93-N.Shepherd).
(10:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to NO 17 for 11 yards (55-K.Elliss) [20-P.Werner].
(9:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-C.White (1-K.McKinstry).
(9:26) 2-A.Jeanty right end to NO 8 for 9 yards (33-A.Jennings). PENALTY on LV-1-T.Tucker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 14.
(9:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 20 for 4 yards (20-P.Werner).
(8:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at NO 23 for -3 yards (99-C.Young).
(7:39) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
14-M.Gay kicks 63 yards from LV 35 to NO 2. 38-J.Price to NO 21 for 19 yards (82-C.White).
(7:30) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 27 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson).
(7:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 30 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker).
(6:33) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to NO 32 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean).
(5:54) 6-T.Shough scrambles right end ran ob at LV 32 for 36 yards (11-J.Chinn).
(5:18) 3-T.Etienne left guard to LV 28 for 4 yards (51-M.Koonce).
(4:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave.
(4:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to LV 17 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn).
(3:56) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 13 for 4 yards (7-Q.Walker; 98-M.Crosby).
(3:14) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 4 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson). PENALTY on NO, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LV 13 - No Play.
(2:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Vele [98-M.Crosby].
(2:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 6 for 12 yards (35-H.Masses) [51-M.Koonce].
(2:17) (Shotgun) 43-C.Donaldson right guard to LV 1 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 7-Q.Walker).
(1:35) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 2 for -1 yards (97-T.Hemingway).
(:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10-D.Carlson extra point is Blocked (99-T.Booker), Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
10-D.Carlson kicks 37 yards from NO 35 to LV 28, short of landing zone. PENALTY on NO-10-D.Carlson, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LV 40.
(:50) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 43 for 3 yards (7-J.Sanker).
(:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LV 48 for 5 yards (20-P.Werner).
END QUARTER 1
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington up the middle to NO 45 for 7 yards (7-J.Sanker).
(14:25) 2-A.Jeanty right end to NO 41 for 4 yards (33-A.Jennings; 97-K.Boyd).
(13:46) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to NO 23 for 18 yards (55-K.Elliss; 1-K.McKinstry).
(13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to NO 15 for 8 yards (20-P.Werner; 7-J.Sanker).
(12:29) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 14 for 1 yard (91-V.Broughton; 92-D.Godchaux).
(11:58) 34-C.Heyward up the middle to NO 12 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 91-V.Broughton). PENALTY on LV-65-T.Linderbaum, Offensive Offside, 4 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play.
(11:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (1-K.McKinstry).
(11:30) 14-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to NO 4. 5-K.Miller to NO 22 for 18 yards (50-S.Olubi; 44-T.Eichenberg).
(11:21) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 19 for -3 yards (17-N.Dean).
(10:45) PENALTY on NO-51-C.Ruiz, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NO 19 - No Play.
(10:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 19 for 5 yards (35-H.Masses; 7-Q.Walker) [93-P.Johnson].
(9:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Lance.
(9:39) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Benson ran ob at LV 47 for 13 yards (38-J.Price).
(9:31) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to NO 42 for 11 yards (28-D.Stutsman; 55-K.Elliss).
(8:55) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty right end pushed ob at NO 40 for 2 yards (1-K.McKinstry; 96-C.Granderson).
(8:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to NO 21 for 19 yards (55-K.Elliss; 7-J.Sanker).
(7:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 9-J.Nailor.
(7:24) (Shotgun) 4-M.Washington left end to NO 18 for 3 yards (96-C.Granderson).
(6:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Jeanty. PENALTY on NO-7-J.Sanker, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at NO 18 - No Play.
(6:37) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right [50-C.Wooden].
(6:33) 2-A.Jeanty right end pushed ob at NO 5 for 6 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
(5:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on NO-28-D.Stutsman, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 5 - No Play.
(5:49) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NO 6. 38-J.Price to NO 28 for 22 yards (26-D.Porter).
(5:39) 3-T.Etienne left tackle to NO 34 for 6 yards (35-H.Masses; 7-Q.Walker).
(5:08) 3-T.Etienne right end to NO 37 for 3 yards (17-N.Dean; 3-T.Johnson).
(4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left guard to NO 41 for 4 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
(4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at LV 46 for 13 yards (17-N.Dean).
(3:32) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at LV 30 for 16 yards.
(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant to LV 21 for 9 yards (5-E.Stokes).
(2:38) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at LV 7 for 14 yards (3-T.Johnson).
(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne left end to LV 3 for 4 yards (35-H.Masses).
(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave (98-M.Crosby).
(1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
10-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LV 35.
(1:54) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 37 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker; 93-N.Shepherd).
(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 9-J.Nailor.
(1:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LV 48 for 11 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
(1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers. PENALTY on NO-29-Q.Riley, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LV 48 - No Play.
(:58) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 1-T.Tucker to NO 36 for 11 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 25 for 11 yards (55-K.Elliss).
Timeout #1 by LV at 00:30.
(:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at NO 34 for -9 yards (97-K.Boyd).
Timeout #2 by LV at 00:24.
(:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles up the middle to NO 29 for 5 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
Timeout #3 by LV at 00:19.
Timeout #1 by NO at 00:19.
(:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at NO 14 for 15 yards (7-J.Sanker). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
(:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Bech. PENALTY on NO-21-J.Reid, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at NO 14 - No Play.
(:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left.
(:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers.
Timeout #2 by NO at 00:04.
(:04) 14-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
END QUARTER 2
21-J.Reid kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to LV 5. 81-D.Young to LV 37 for 32 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
(14:55) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 37 for no gain (28-D.Stutsman; 92-D.Godchaux).
(14:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to LV 42 for 5 yards (29-Q.Riley; 28-D.Stutsman).
(13:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (33-A.Jennings).
(13:37) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 38-J.Price.
(13:30) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele pushed ob at NO 24 for 11 yards (11-J.Chinn).
(13:01) (Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne right tackle to NO 28 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean).
(12:23) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 3-T.Etienne to NO 35 for 7 yards (17-N.Dean).
(11:38) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
(11:08) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 48 for 4 yards (95-K.Paye; 97-T.Hemingway).
(10:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 3-T.Etienne to LV 46 for 6 yards (95-K.Paye; 69-A.Butler).
(9:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Etienne up the middle to LV 40 for 6 yards (69-A.Butler; 5-E.Stokes).
(9:11) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 5-K.Miller to LV 36 for 4 yards (17-N.Dean).
(8:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to LV 24 for 12 yards (3-T.Johnson).
(8:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to LV 7 for 17 yards (11-J.Chinn).
(7:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to LV 1 for 6 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
(6:58) (No Huddle) PENALTY on LV-99-T.Booker, Neutral Zone Infraction, 0 yards, enforced at LV 1 - No Play.
(6:44) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby].
10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
10-D.Carlson kicks 63 yards from NO 35 to LV 2. 23-D.Laube to LV 30 for 28 yards (33-A.Jennings). FUMBLES (33-A.Jennings), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at LV 32.
(6:33) 3-T.Etienne right tackle pushed ob at LV 16 for 16 yards (11-J.Chinn).
(5:54) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
10-D.Carlson kicks 59 yards from NO 35 to LV 6. 81-D.Young to LV 29 for 23 yards (42-M.Reid; 44-I.Stalbird).
(5:40) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 35 for 6 yards (21-J.Reid).
(5:04) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 35 for no gain (28-D.Stutsman).
(4:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers to NO 45 for 20 yards (1-K.McKinstry).
(3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker ran ob at NO 36 for 9 yards (21-J.Reid).
(3:29) 4-M.Washington right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 35 yards (21-J.Reid). Las Vegas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-M.Washington right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins pass to 2-A.Jeanty is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
14-M.Gay kicks 59 yards from LV 35 to NO 6, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-14-M.Gay, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at NO 40.
(3:20) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle to NO 45 for 5 yards (69-A.Butler; 7-Q.Walker).
(3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 43 for 12 yards (35-H.Masses).
(2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 18-B.Lance.
(2:18) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave.
(2:14) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Vele (3-T.Johnson).
(2:07) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.
(2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to LV 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.
(2:01) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-C.White.
(1:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right. ** Injury Update: NO-96-C.Granderson has returned to the game.
(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Benson.
(1:47) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to NO 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 38-J.Price to NO 39 for 11 yards (93-P.Johnson).
(1:36) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 44 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean).
(:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (17-N.Dean).
(:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to LV 45 for 11 yards (35-H.Masses).
(:16) 5-K.Miller right guard to LV 44 for 1 yard (3-T.Johnson).
END QUARTER 3
(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Vele. The incomplete pass was assisted by replay.
(14:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at LV 35 for 9 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
(14:19) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at LV 30 for 5 yards.
(13:45) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LV 29 for 1 yard (3-T.Johnson).
(13:04) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 39 for -10 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], touched at LV 39, RECOVERED by LV-98-M.Crosby at LV 45.
(12:55) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty to NO 33 for 22 yards (55-K.Elliss; 7-J.Sanker).
(12:11) 2-A.Jeanty left end to NO 26 for 7 yards (28-D.Stutsman).
(11:31) 4-M.Washington right end to NO 21 for 5 yards (50-C.Wooden; 23-J.Blackmon).
(10:50) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker to NO 6 for 15 yards (21-J.Reid).
(10:06) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 4 for 2 yards (50-C.Wooden).
(9:27) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.
14-M.Gay kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NO 5. 85-J.Moreno-Cropper to NO 27 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg; 23-D.Laube).
(9:15) 5-K.Miller left guard to NO 30 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby).
(8:41) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 5-K.Miller to NO 31 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean).
(8:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-69-A.Butler at NO 4.
(7:48) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to NO 2 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux).
(7:10) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 4 for -2 yards (97-K.Boyd).
(6:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
14-M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to NO 4. 38-J.Price to NO 24 for 20 yards (81-D.Young).
(6:17) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 35 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean).
(5:44) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 38 for 3 yards (7-Q.Walker; 95-K.Paye).
(5:09) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 6 yards (17-N.Dean).
(4:30) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller right end to NO 49 for 5 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn), ball out of bounds at LV 47.
(3:52) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson ran ob at LV 29 for 22 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
(3:43) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 5-K.Miller.
(3:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to LV 20 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson).
(3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to LV 20 for no gain (51-M.Koonce).
Timeout #1 by LV at 02:21.
(2:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn) [11-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-3-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby.
(2:15) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 44 for 12 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
(2:00) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 48 for 4 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 92-D.Godchaux).
Timeout #1 by NO at 01:55.
(1:55) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 49 for 1 yard (55-K.Elliss; 21-J.Reid).
Timeout #2 by NO at 01:48.
(1:48) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 40 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], recovered by LV-34-C.Heyward at LV 40.
Timeout #3 by NO at 01:44.
(1:44) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
(1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway [98-M.Crosby] at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway to NO 16 for no gain (6-T.Shough). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20 - No Play.
(1:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 21 for -4 yards (7-Q.Walker).
(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (3-T.Johnson).
(1:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), touched at NO 40, RECOVERED by LV-5-E.Stokes at NO 35.
(:53) 8-K.Cousins kneels to NO 36 for -1 yards.
(:35) 8-K.Cousins kneels to NO 37 for -1 yards.
END GAME
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-3.15 points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-7.56 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-2.48 points Supported
-1.01 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.42 points Supported
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
-0.55 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-0.48 points Supported
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.53 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0.53 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 points Supported
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
-2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
0 percentage points Supported
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.06 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
0.09 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
0.53 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-fc871868cb91 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
0.09 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
0.09 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 3/3 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-nfl4th-2026-v1 · 0/1 eligible events modeled
-2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
-2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
0.06 points Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-1b26bba80d09 · 2/2 eligible events modeled
This event has no supported modeled impact. Its observed result alone does not establish the cost of an error.
-2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Unavailable Unavailable
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 0/1 eligible events modeled
-2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
2.52 recoveries Supported
State not available.
No supported alternative state. Observed play impact is not an estimate of error cost.
Model under-review-contextual-baselines-v1-5d13bdb7c25f-team-recovery-v1 · 5/5 eligible events modeled
Retrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:55 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 8ac068035f4cf7fa70813d84774721548605b7ff6dbf0ec41cd5d4052add81afRetrieved Sep 27, 2026, 11:56 PM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 9d854f1cc04671fc19dd1bb6ad758e20a51d48fc3d429bcbf22c098c05eac31cRetrieved Sep 28, 2026, 12:07 AM UTC
License: CC-BY-4.0
SHA-256 65290c1cf42216d1a09e1a123eceb9484a6ca6250cd6d147579cef7f41158393Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Published training excludes ties/OT; pinned artifact training cutoff unverified.
Training window: Not established; retrospective evaluation is not claimed to be leakage-free.
Rule-adapted experimental scenarios; recorded observed-action diagnostics do not identify unchosen counterfactual outcomes.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022
No future games, recovery locations, eventual yards gained, or kick outcomes in predictors.
Training window: 2017–2025; comparisons use strictly prior seasons
Experimental empirical overtime estimates for supported possession phases; not calibrated coaching or officiating costs. Points describe pre-play win/loss/tie probabilities, except END GAME is an observed outcome. Sparse, unsupported and ambiguous states remain unavailable.
Training window: 1999–2025; strictly prior target seasons
Descriptive absolute margin error versus recorded closing spread; no misconduct probability; market-only rating capped at 3/5.
Training window: 1999–2025; target comparisons use prior seasons only
Descriptive fixed-pattern historical comparisons and play review triggers; no intent or misconduct inference.
Training window: Five completed seasons before the game; calibration uses three earlier seasons, each predicted from its own prior five seasons.
Team/opponent/referee penalty expectations and retrospective yardage/turnover outcome expectation. Separate family tails; referee/team win records are context only.
Analysis input hash: f75b5797cae885f769fd8a2fd33b69d0fa11f0e62344f2e77653cd77ddc703d7
Each saved version stays available so you can see what changed.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
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Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
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0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
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0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
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0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
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0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
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0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
12 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Charting coverage updated. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated after a correction
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Previously reported game profile or historical comparison corrected.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Updated source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
0 metric records changed; 0 previously reported category findings changed. Game rating and historical comparisons updated.
Early source data
Initial evidence-backed report.
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled
Model nflfastR-6.0.0-fastrmodels-2.1.0-nonspread-regulation · 1/1 eligible events modeled